Tasmanian reader Econocrat tells of a stunning Newspoll result foreshadowed on tonight’s Lateline: 58-42 to Labor. More to follow …
UPDATE: Kevin Rudd’s lead as preferred prime minister has increased to 50 per cent to 37 per cent. Like the two-party figure, this is a 2 per cent change in either direction from last week. Preliminary reports at Sky News and The Australian.
UPDATE 2: Graphic here, Dennis Shanahan here. Kevin Rudd’s satisfaction rating has recovered three points after a dip last week; the Coalition’s lead on the question of best party to handle the economy has narrowed to 46-37 from 48-33 three weeks ago; its lead on best party to handle national security has unaccountably narrowed from 45-33 to 43-39; and Labor’s leads on education and health have widened considerably. No doubt much of this can be put down to a very Labor-friendly poll sample. Most interesting is a question on strength of voting intention which gives no reason to think the support for Labor might be “soft”.
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http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SESr9D5Gd7A
You bloody beauty – Go the Ruddster!!!! What a lovely set of numbers they are…yipppeeee yipppeeee
What is the Primary – is it published yet?
I hope so. I will be nervous as hell even if the last Newspoll says 53 / 47.
SId Marris’ early report:
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22631396-601,00.html
ShowsOn, yes it certainly will demoralise Liberal candidates.
People do like people who look and behave like winners!
2004 2PP was ~47% for ALP, right? There is no way they can achieve 58% in the election – question is whether Libs can limit it to 52-53% and perhaps an ALP majority of 10-20.
Anything under a 10 majority would be a brilliant result for the Coalition now (Costello might stay on!). 54-55% 2PP means a ‘96 rout is in the offing – maybe an ALP majority of 20-30? Means Libs have to lose 40 seats to the ALP. That’s like UK ‘97. even the most diehard ALP fan can’t believe this is a probable outcome?
Is it possible that this is a response by the punters to last weeks polling? Did they get spooked by the media’s pushing of the narrowing narrative and react to it?
I can’t believe this poll (literally). It’s amazing. It’s counter-intuitive. It goes against every other poll taken in the last week.
But it’s there. And that’s good enough. Every headline tomorrow will be about “Rudd’s comeback” – even The Oz!
I can’t wait to see Dennis’ analysis. Heck, I can’t wait to see Malcolm Colless’ analysis. Or The Oz editorial.
And forgive me for my hubris but:
WOOOOOOOOOHOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!
1876 all over again.
Just in:
Mark Latham has announced he is willing to take a diplomatic posting should Labor win the Federal election.
White powder found in Parliament House. Hmmm…
BTW, was Piers Akerman at the debate the other night?
Just asking…
If this was the election result that would be a 10% swing, if my memory serves me correctly Keating suffered a 5% swing, gosh there must be some really scary swings on.
Count me in to this group. I am going Green in the Senate, not so much though because I am deserting Labor but because I want to rid the Senate of the Coalition majority and since the Greens are closer to getting the BOP than Labor that is a good enough argument for me. Whatever it takes to get the Coalition out of power
“Noocat… news limited will not let up… ”
But Marky, surely when it all comes down to business – government inside scoops, government advertising, and future media laws – they may not want to be on the wrong side of the railway tracks. At some point, they will have to make their peace with Labor, and better on this side of the election than the other.
Or are they really just a bunch of rabid ultra right wing hacks, nothing more?
By the way, am I right in thinking that a score of 50 for preferred PM would have to be the highest that Rudd has received by Newspoll?
If the polls stay above 55 then good sleep will follow, of course, if you follow Rudd.
Well. Seems things are going swell for Prime Minister Rudd. By all accounts. At this stage of the proceedings. When will the Leader of the Opposition, Mr Costello or his nominated ring-in, announce his front bench and his tax policy? The Nation needs to know.
144
TofK Says:
Very fitting in hindsight. The storming of the winter palace uncovered the biggest alcohol stash in Russia, and was followed by St Petersburg’s biggest hangover in recorded history to date.
I am about to repeat history.
Cheers
(wow)
fiztig @ 156 – it is likely to be just the effect of randomness – the next polls in the series will tell us if this is the case. That’s why this stuff is so addictive.
On News.com.au: “Rudd Increases Poll Lead”
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,22631608-29277,00.html
Yeah, and even the bottom rung hacks like to think their candidate is in with a chance.
I’m supporting my local candidate because a) she is a great candidate with excellent qualifications, and b) the party machine is actually supporting her with decent bucks so she has a chance at winning the seat. In previous years they basically run dead in my seat, which makes volunteering for the seat I live in pointless.
I doubt it. Most people just aren’t plugged into things that closely.
Unbeloodylievable.
I don’t believe in 58-42 polls at any time, least of all now… but fark me, could the timing be better for Rudd?
Kim Beazley must wonder what he did to the Newspoll Gods. Every time he started picking up a bit of momentum last year he copped a (bad) rogue Newspoll in the solar plexus. With Rudd, it’s been the opposite.
Knives out at 20 paces for the Libs in the morning
Julie @ 107,
Just for a nice icecream right now!
SL @ 158: it does go against the oterh polls, but it’s the first poll taken since Labor fired a shot.
This will hurt them – what a blow.
I guess the only downside to a poll like this is that there is a good chance that the next poll will be down, which will trigger another “Howard comeback” frenzy from the media. But that in itself is not a bad thing because Labor probably don’t want to seem too far ahead, albeit I do think the underdog effect is often overrated.
The same thing happened in Berlin in 1945 when the Red Army broke into the wine cellars of the Adlon Hotel, the best in Europe at that time. They drank the place dry then burned down the hotel. As one does.
174 – “other”
As Malcolm Farr said, it’s amazing what half a computer can do. The Libs just don’t get that people want their taxes spent on something worthwhile, not just given back to them a couple of years later.
This is a vote for Rudd’s education rebate and childcare policies. No doubt he’ll have a few more hospital policies to roll out as well. Haing been a state bureaucrat, he knows that people want good essential services, and punish governments that don’t think this is important.
It’s still a surprisingly large Newspoll vote for Labor, and state breakdowns would be VERY interesting. It is remarkable that so many people want to park their vote with Labor, rather than desert Howard by voting for a minor party.
And while this poll was taken before the debate, the debate has clarified two very important things, that will also help Labor greatly. One is that Rudd has credibility on economic issues – so the government’s biggest gun has been silenced. And the other is that people do hate Costello more than Howard, so a leadership change won’t happen. I think Turnbull could turn a few votes around if he was leader, but he isn’t, and won’t be.
On these results, Howard, Turnbull and Costello would all lose their seats. I doubt that that will happen, but I reckon they’ll be sticking fairly close to their electorates in coming weeks, while Rudd storms the country.
LOL, 113 Darn. Staying put.
Hopefully we have a Howard Comeback line in the 2nd to last week of the campaign, but not the LAST week else I’ll stop breathing.
It really puts the Galaxy poll into perspective doesn’t it?
Noocat @ 175 – succinct expression of chaos theory (don’t look for to much meaning).
PS – Let me amend my above comment: the poll is brilliant for Rudd in terms of turning his debate springboard into a trampoline for media coverage this week.
Not sure that rogue polls creating perceptions of a crushing Labor victory will be beneficial though.
What was the sample, and what’s the MOE?
176
Adam Says:
The same thing happened in Berlin in 1945 when the Red Army broke into the wine cellars of the Adlon Hotel, the best in Europe at that time. They drank the place dry then burned down the hotel. As one does.
LOL
I am not prepared to burn my house down on the basis of one poll. Besides which, it might be a bit tricky, being a metal frame, metal skin job.
I still just refuse to believe these numbers they are just plain wrong. We will find out on 24th of November I guess.
Hoping for a whitewash, but until election night drags my wildest fantasies into reality, im sticking with my (1 seat majority would still make me smile) prediction of 82alp-66lnp-2ind. But even writing this makes me chant: prove me wrong, prove me wrong, prove me wrong. 100+ seats would be lovely =).
In the previous thread some people speculated about when the Labor campaign would turn negative. If they keep getting polls like this I hope they just keep playing the SAME positive adverts with different policies.
There is no need to go negative if the polls say they remain in the lead.
Proves Galaxy poll was push polling.
Burgey @ 184,
Those figures are not known yet. The Australian’s website should have them up around 12:30am EST.
Thommo – numbers are never wrong – people are wrong.
Must have been a push poll Thommo, done in Marrickville.
Thommo… what made the Galaxy figures believable last week?
VoterBoy of over the Water, lucky you didn’t use your real name! You can check the story in NSW Hansard.
I think a lot of people will vote for the Greens in the Senate, Julie, for the same reason.
Workchoices wouldn’t have passed if the Greens had held the balance.
Also the Greens will undoubtedly hold the government accountable.
The government will still be able to pass much of its legislation with the support of HM Opposition but will need the Greens for the more progressive pieces of legislation.
Thommo, have you ever heard of a certain river in Egypt? You are in it.
Well the AC Neilsen must have been right, Labors primary did increase but wrong about the Greens. Newspoll probably gave the Greens back their 2%
Thommo – even if there’s a different result on election night, it doesn’t make these numbers wrong, coz they’re a snapshot of where people are at now.
Five weeks is a long time in politics, as the past 7 days have just shown.
AM this poll is the outlier not the galaxy one.
Noocat 175 – playing the underdog though has it’s limits. I think is essential that people DO NOT think the ALP are the underdogs going in to the last week. People need to think they are going to win.
I don’t think Labor will win 111 seats or whatever Antony’s calculator says with 58% of the 2pp.
However I think this poll says they will win about 90, rather than the 80 that I have been predicting.
I guess I should just split the difference and say 85, so long as Sturt is the 85th seat they win!
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