Tasmanian reader Econocrat tells of a stunning Newspoll result foreshadowed on tonight’s Lateline: 58-42 to Labor. More to follow …
UPDATE: Kevin Rudd’s lead as preferred prime minister has increased to 50 per cent to 37 per cent. Like the two-party figure, this is a 2 per cent change in either direction from last week. Preliminary reports at Sky News and The Australian.
UPDATE 2: Graphic here, Dennis Shanahan here. Kevin Rudd’s satisfaction rating has recovered three points after a dip last week; the Coalition’s lead on the question of best party to handle the economy has narrowed to 46-37 from 48-33 three weeks ago; its lead on best party to handle national security has unaccountably narrowed from 45-33 to 43-39; and Labor’s leads on education and health have widened considerably. No doubt much of this can be put down to a very Labor-friendly poll sample. Most interesting is a question on strength of voting intention which gives no reason to think the support for Labor might be “soft”.
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ASM @ 189 – Galaxy started life as a telemarketing company, I heard. Talking of chaos theory: never get telemarketers to do polling!
“…the poll is brilliant for Rudd in terms of turning his debate springboard into a trampoline for media coverage this week.”
And if CPI figures released this week show an unexpectedly high rate of inflation, then speculation of a rise in interest rates will cap off a very advantageous week for Labor.
Thommo… what gives you the belief that Galaxy was correct? Is it just because it confirms your belief of what the polls should be?
There should be a comprehensive history study of mass alcoholism brought about by social dislocation. Make for a fascinating, and probably very long, read.
I think Rudd should take the day off tomorrow after this poll outcome and put his feet up. He’s earned it.
Thommo before you dismiss this poll please go and check out Palmers poll graphs for they show all year the ALP have had at least 55% support and it was only a month ago that Newspoll had a 60-40 before dipping to 55 but yeah all 4 polling companies have had these very lopsided numbers all year.
Noocat… News Limited don’t give a stuff.. They are in a powerful position.. and after the election they will not let up… And for Labor their will be no excuses for them… no blaming the State Governments for probs… the ball would be in their court..
To be frank Labor should stiffen the Media Laws and toughen the public broadcasting authorities role regarding misleading reporting…
News Limited have a monopoly regarding newsprint in Queensland and South Australia and i think Tassie and just think about the role the play if any policies come which are anti business..
People should stop gloating, only gloat when it happens…
Wrong Scotty… he should act as if it’s a rogue and double his efforts. I’m not giving him any rest.
Thommo, the crucial thing is outlier or not this poll will get big coverage (that’s the only worth of polls – they only matter if they can be used to tell a story, and this is a very bad story for the Libs)
The Galaxy figure is just more believable full stop. Just look at the seat by seat polling we have seen there are no numbers close to 58/42. We will find out on election night.
“Thommo Says:
October 22nd, 2007 at 10:14 pm
AM this poll is the outlier not the galaxy one.”
They’re probably both outliers, Thommo, which puts reality around 55/56. Not unreasonable given the mood I’ve been picking up lately.
Crosby Textor nailed all the reasons months ago. They may be evil, but they’re good.
We saw the dead cat bounce and it is quite dead now. It had it’s 2 to 3% difference which you would expect. The electorate was bounced quite heavily and that was it.
I am at 20 seats still too, expect 55/45 from here on. Swings but in the wrong places. Like in Vic election, biggest swing in labor held swings then in liberal then in marginal.
Whatch the Murdoch press turn in the final week. No paper wants a whitewash. Only a close game sells tickets, but then they’ll turn to save credibility.
should we start the competition for what the GG’s headline will be?
Maybe: “Half of Australia doesn’t support Rudd for PM”"?
Will “J-Ho loses the ‘big’ tax cut mo” be the headline in the GG tomorrow?
I doubt it but it will interesting to see how the MSM Howard cheer squad spin their way out of this.
My worry is that, if there is a perception of a Ruddslide at this stage, there maybe swing back to Howard by those who decide their vote as they fill out their ballot papers, thinking Labor is going to win anyway.
JWH cannot win while he lacks a clear and coherent message to sell the electorate. He had one for each of the past three elections, but a general appeal to “economic management” doesn’t work unless it ties directly into personal experiences. If he does manage to hit a theme which resonates (and to my surprise it’s seeming less likely), look for a comeback.
Aristotle made a good point a fair while ago that polls tend to vary more widely during election campaigns. While this result will make the coalition sweat, the other most recent polls have moved to the coalition. On that note, does anyone know the furthest out Newspoll has been from the final result during an election period ?
I believe you heard wrong. It was started by David Briggs after he left Newspoll. For all the bad press it gets, it does in fact have the best record of any pollster since it was established in 2004.
Thommo you are correct the Marginals are swinging less than these polls would suggest but as our dear fury Possum has shown looking at Newspoll and Nelson the swing is bigger in safe Liberal seats than the marginals.
Thommo,
Let me explain the basic rule of politics to you.
Perception = reality
In this case, the perception is that Rudd is in the ascendancy, the Coalition tax cuts and negative advertising haven’t worked and the Libs are on the nose.
Whether this is true or not is irrelevant – once figures like this get digested by the MSM, everyone will be thinking that the Coalition are stuffed. I, myself, have doubts over the accuracy of the poll, but that is unimportant at the moment. There’s no new polls til at least Thursday, so Rudd gets 2 clear days with this poll to build even more momentum.
The inflation figure is likely to be 1% or more, possibly 1.1%. The Reserve Bank would feel obliged to act if they go that high and frankly, if they see opinion polls like these, they will realise that it won’t make any difference to the election result. They wouldn’t need to wait until December.
Well my dear Kameraden,
Winners are grinners and losers can please themselves, but now that victory is in sight, within taste , why be modest – what should Labor do with the keys to the kingdom – surely $750 for laptops is not the extent of the vision?
Richard Jones, 194.
Oh, I’m agog and aghast…
My line of inquiry was far more innocent – I was just thinking, ‘Piers, he’s a big man, probably very liberal with the Johnson’s Baby Powder to avoid chafing’, that sort of thing.
(Searches for ironic emoticon, but fails to find one…)
Rudd scared of Howard – wants to debate Costello
In other news: Newspoll workers sacked
I wonder if some of those polled on the weekend saw the press on Friday from the Neilsen and Galaxy results, and began to think that Howard might be re-elected, thus influencing them to make the jump to Rudd?
They might have been thinking that it’s time for a change, but weren’t willing to commit just yet, until faced with the prospect of NOT getting the change, thus galvanising their decision to say “ALP” in response to the Newspoll pollsters?
Leopold @ 171
that is because Rudd is Rupert’s man. And as Shamaham once told us”Rupert owns newspoll”.
Rupert has Rudd in his pocket….thanks to Col Allen *wink*.
the stripper story was just a shot over Kevins bow.
World domination is such a dirty game.
“I think is essential that people DO NOT think the ALP are the underdogs going in to the last week. People need to think they are going to win.”
Grog, I agree completely. The leaked Crosby-Textor polling this year highlighted the importance of expectations of a party winning government. This would far outweigh any underdog effect. Besides, the underdog effect only works if you LIKE the underdog. People might feel sorry for a party that has lost support, but if they still don’t like them or their policies, then voting for them won’t come easy.
Trying to be perceived as an underdog can, however, minimise impressions of arrogance, but the win expectations still need to be there and the likeability also needs to be there. People like to back a winner.
In many ways, Labor is a theoretical underdog in terms of needing 16 seats and fighting a great deal of media bias. There is a lot of institutional bias against Labor. But despite the challenge, they are doing brilliantly so far.
216 – William – I defer to your great knowledge on these things, but they really like to push the envelope in sample size and they always seem to please the master.
Could be 61-39 with MOE!
ESJ, what’s John Howard’s vision? A tax cut so we can all decide what to do with it ourselves…
Well now that’s out of the way… what to do with 5 more weeks of campaigning?
Keating was wrong… THIS is going to be the sweetest victory of all.
Especially if Howard loses his seat.
Sir Eggo, I suspect that ditching Howard might ruin what little hope the Libs have left at this point.
Last night, I actually felt a bit sorry for Howard, watching him squirm and look on the verge of tears–and I’m about as much a long-term Howard Hater as you could find. If the Liberals shafted him at this point, I suspect that they’d lose support from those who find Costello far too much of a brash upstart, those who adore Howard (and yes, they do exist, strangely enough). We’re talking here of over 70 year old, mainly female, upper-middle class types, a pretty large constituency of the Liberal Party.
If I felt Howard’s pain, given that I want him to suffer a miserable and agonising defeat, just imagine how they must be feeling about him.
This will be great for the Labor guys, help them settle and be more relaxed. Rudd can hopefully relax a bit and be more like he was last night.
LTEP 228
Which Labor copied. I rest my case.
LTEP,
It’s now time to start drinking daily, so you can build up your alcohol tolerance for the massive party you’re going to have on election night (win or lose)!!!
LTEP (208) I’m half joking…. To be honest he doesn’t look very tired. Looks very relaxed and in control. I suspect members of his team have probably told him to rest and I’ll wager he told them to bugger off.
Of course not, Edward, but do you think we are going to reveal our real plans to kulaks like you? Let me just suggest, because I like you, that you have a suitcase packed on the night of the 24th.
212 – read or re-read the Possum’s posts of the last few months, this time the swings will be where the ALP needs them, if it ends up 55-45 then it will be easily over 90 seats.
Like most people, I find it hard to credit that this poll will be duplicated on election day. But when you think about it, the Ostrayan people have been perfectly prepared to give Labor landslide victories in various states. Bracks, Beattie and Rann have stormed to huge majorities IN LINE WITH THE PRE-ELECTION POLLS, and Labor’s initial win in the Northern Territory was a massive swing.
If people want to get rid of a government these days, they’ll swing as far as they can. There aren’t as many rusted-on voters to the major parties as they used to be, partly because there’s less difference between what the parties stand for these days.
They like Rudd, they are not scared of Labor Governments because of the state experiences, and the think it’s time to give Labor a go in Canberra. And no doubt they’ll be prepared to swing massively against a state Labor Government when the Liberal Party bothers to put up a presentable Opposition somewhere.
It’s almost certainly an outlier and we should keep nice and calm. The polls get more volatile now the campaign is under sail.
But still… I so did not see that coming. The media narrative will be a killer.
Holy crap.
Well, after that lil’ pick-me-up, I’m turning in – ‘night all.
I wonder how much booze they have stashed at Kirribilli?
ESJ, people don’t care about all this childish ‘you copied me’ coming from either party.
If you’re going to criticise one party for lack of vision, look at the other. The Liberal Party has never once offered a comprehensive vision for the future, even with the resources of government.
Of course, I expect him to release policies over the duration of the campaign… but surely a government should be forming policy for the duration of its term.
It might even be worth buying the Austrayan tomorrow.
Nah, I’ll just steal one instead…
58-42 is very unlikely Thommo, well it would make election history I would have thought. Memory tells me a national swing of 5-6% is a very good result in recent election history, but Im no psephelogist.
But things are not looking good for the ‘the narrowing’ thesis at this stage in the campaign if the 2 percent JWH allegedly got on the Tax policy has already wormed its way out of his pocket, and before the worm took its toll at the debate. I understand this poll closed at 5pm Sunday night.
Guys on a sort of related side note, what does everyone think of the nurse strike in Victoria? Could this hurt Labor federally, or is it too prickly an issue for Howard to try and take advantage of due to it concerning WorkChoices
Before you all rudd-gasm and stain the bedsheets….
This poll goes against ALL of the seat by seat polling from around the country – even in SA (the ALP’s claimed “strongest” state), the seat by seat polling shows at best a 5-6% swing..
The final result is going to be MUCH closer than this latest newspoll suggests.
Next week the polls are going to show a shortening again, and headlines of “Howard makes a comeback”.
It’s an Austin Powers moment.
“Yeah baby”.
Add the debate effects, and it’s 60:40.
Subtract the too good to be true effect, and it’s 56:44.
Add the moralised Liberal effect, and it’s 57:43.
Which should give Labor around 120 seats in a 150 seat Parliament.
Yes he wants to cut tax so we all voluntarily donate money to the construction of clean energy sources, and so we all donate to the construction of new water infrastructure.
This is his grand plan, government via donation.
#216 – William – I seem to remember Galaxy forecast a swing against me of 5% two days before polling day on a sample of abut 500 which fit the local media narrative quite nicely and it never eventuated. If they are not a telemarketing company they should try it – its a profitable line of business to which they would be suited.
I was there for the massive swing against the CLP in the Northern Territory. As soon as Labor got itself a decent leader and the Govt leadership started to look weak – it was all over. Nothing was going to change the result. 20+ years in govt and they got murdered at their first loss.
Yesterday Howard did nothing to enhance his image as a strong leader.
Three influential colomnists on Lateline- No two right wing brain dead colomnists … who don’t believe in Climate Change… time to turn over again… not wasting my time listening to these so called “Influential” people….
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