Verdicts on the debate in today’s papers divide neatly along organisational lines, with News Limited observers saying it was close and Fairfax giving a clear win to Rudd. The commentator who comes closest to calling it for Howard is Sid Marris: speaking with colleague Dennis Shanahan on a video at The Australian’s website, he judges that “John Howard was stronger, but Kevin Rudd didn’t suffer a loss”. Shanahan decries the “Rudd-centric” worm, and says only that the Opposition Leader “won because he didn’t lose”. Also on the video are Paul Kelly, who says Howard was “very much on top at the start but I think Rudd finished better”, and Sky News man-of-the-hour David Speers who gives the debate to Rudd “on points”. In the newspaper itself, Matthew Franklin gives Kevin Rudd a “narrow victory” in the face of a “well above par” performance by the Prime Minister. Doug Conway of the Courier-Mail calls it a draw, offering the wearily familiar assessment that “neither Mr Howard nor Mr Rudd made a disastrous blunder, nor did they land a lethal body blow on their opponent”. Only Mark Kenny of The Advertiser breaks ranks, saying Rudd “unquestionably had the better of it”, while echoing the customary caution that “the longer term political significance is unlikely to be great”.
By contrast, the headline in The Age tells us of “Rudd’s decisive win”. Michelle Grattan declares Rudd “the clear winner”, “sounding confident and convincing against an opponent whose energy flagged and temper flared”, while Tony Wright rates it “Rudd’s night on most fronts”. Similarly, the Sydney Morning Herald’s Peter Hartcher reckons Rudd the “clear winner”, and says he has “cemented his claim as frontrunner”. The assessment of the Canberra Times is that Rudd won “because he didn’t debate. He had a plan to sell and he came, he saw and he sold”. In the other non-News Limited paper available to hand, The West Australian, a report by Chris Johnson and Shane Wright talks of Rudd “clearly getting the better of the Prime Minister”. Political editor Andrew Probyn also gives it to Rudd, saying the Prime Minister was “on the back foot … over WorkChoices, climate change, leadership and interest rates”.
834 Comments
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Howard over here handing out free umbrellas with every dollar. Pork with Water chestnuts. Happens to be raining.
Isn’t it interesting how the P.M. can repeatedly lose debates, but win the elections.
In the U.S., the presidential debates are considered crucial. Repeated poor performance in the presidential debates can kill an entire campaign.
They’re a lot more plugged into politics than us, which is something I admire.
No 498
Well if we’re going to go there, Bob Hawke banned debates in 1987 with John Howard. At least Howard had the balls to have a debate.
In the end, another debate serves little purpose. It will cover old ground and will be equally boring if its conducted in a similar manner.
re502: No – over there only the die-hards vote.
Complusory voting creates a wierd dynamic
# 503 Generic Person Says: October 22nd, 2007 at 4:51 pm
Sure it serves a purpose. It proves that you’re not scared, and that you don’t run from fights.
You’re just saying that because Howard would lose.
Geriatric Person 484
“Your lot haven’t exactly exuded confident maturity given much of the age old anti-Howard bile that constantly is spewed forth in this forum.”
You seem to just collapse back onto the typical right-wing-hack talking points designed to inflame type lines. Do you have an argument to make or are you just testing to see if people will bite? So far you certainly haven’t changed the widespread experience of right wingers being bitter and twisted and still wanting revenge for having done so badly at school
ShowsOn
More people voted in American Idol than in the last Presidential Election.
So Rudd was covered in what the Age described as a ‘muck sweat’.
He perspired a lot last night
Does this mean he has malaria, typhoid?
Really, all this beat-up about Howard’s health is a disgrace. If he spent his whole life on the bottle like RJH or was an overweight buffon like Latham, then perhaps it would be warranted.
Hoiw many of you clowns walk for 7kms before breakfast. Smoke? Drink too much?
Thought so.
There have been rather too many unconstructive comments recently. I’m going to start cutting comments if they don’t make a worthwhile point.
William Bowe
http://www.pollbludger.com
Generic Person
I would be happy to have a go at Rudd (he is my local member, my house is 400 meters from his, he is always giving bikes for raffles at my childrens schools). There are many things I do not like about him and the course he has taken. But we live in a so called democracy and so you take your hits and throw your lot in with the folks who will do the least harm (please do not gag) for all. Thats why folks vote labour Thats why RUDD however floored, how ever rich, is still the much better reasoned choice, despite his ambition, despite his hubris— Somewhere, in some way he sees the light on the hill. He thinks, even if its for electoral advantage about the little man. Where as with Howard it is all about the CHIP ON THE SHOULDER
So they had 121 million die hards at the last election. That’s pretty decent.
488 Generic Person – It seems you want to castigate people on this blog for “infantile” chatter yet you’re unwilling to do the same to one of your boys for doing the same thing. What’s that word starting with ‘h’ again?
Being Australian is about driving in a Italian car to an Irish pub for A Mexican beer, then on the way home, grabbing an Indian curry or A Turkish kebab, to sit on Swedish furniture and watch American shows on a Japanese TV.
Oh and…… Only in Australia … can a pizza get to your house faster than an ambulance.
Only in Australia … do supermarkets make sick people walk all
the way to the back of the shop to get their prescriptions while healthy people can buy cigarettes at the front.
Only in Australia … do people order double cheeseburgers, large fries and a DIET coke.
Only in Australia … do banks leave both doors open and chain the pens to the counters.
Only in Australia … do we leave cars worth thousands of dollars in the driveway and lock our junk and cheap lawn mower in the
garage.
NOT TO MENTION…
3 Aussies die each year testing if a 9v battery works on their
tongue.
58 Aussies are injured each year by using sharp knives instead
of screwdrivers.
31 Aussies have died since 1996 by watering their Christmas tree while the fairy lights were plugged in.
8 Aussies had serious burns in 2000 trying on a new jumper with
a lit cigarette in their mouth.
A massive 543 Aussies were admitted to Emergency in the last two years after opening bottles of beer with their teeth.
and finally………
In 2000 eight Aussies cracked their skull whilst throwing up
into the toilet.
Fair enough, William.
Can I pose a question? Do any of you see this debate (and the debates that have followed – ie on the worm) having a serious impact in the polls?
I understand that Newspoll is out tomorrow and that won’t include the aftermath of the debate, but what about Morgan on Friday? Any thoughts?
I think that Morgan will blow out again into 58/42 territory and the Newspoll next week will move back to 55/45.
American Idol accepts multiple votes.
Last election Busy & Kerry got 121 million votes between them, I think that is a pretty good turn out. As a percentage of the eligible voting population it would be better than what we would do if attendance was voluntary.
No 505
If knew he was going to lose, he would have banned debates altogether.
I look at the history concerning debates and clearly they are irrelevant for determining the outcome of the election.
However, I would really like to see a debate with Costello and Swan. That would be worth paying for.
496 – good topic
Definitely Mr Rudd’s low point for mine. What a time to have it though – he’s got 5 weeks to correct it and for an obsessive compulsive like him that would have hurt too.
There’s been a discussion here for a while that the elevation of the green issues will result in more green voters, but I’m wary of that – I think the major parties are filling the green space, and just because you’re green doesn’t mean you can manage a BOP either – in fact their idealistic stance suggests the opposite (I know, I know – there’s more to green than that, but that’s my view of their wider community image).
So – the worm suggested that Australia is wary of the economic cost of our conscience? It’s like having a crush on your best mates little sister…tough choice.
I think the ALP narrative has failed thus far, and the LP line has been positive because the LP have framed the debate as “either-or”. For mine the ALP need to fall in behind the stern report more strongly. The science says it costs more to do nothing. The science phraseology worked for Rudd, but he was too slow in linking it to economic conservatism. I don’t think he’ll be able to remain on the sidelines with this one.
re #512.
It’s so-so in a country of 300m plus.
So that’s 121m out of a population of 300m – approx 40%.
In Contrast we had 12m odd out of a population of about 19M – approx 70%.
Boothby would have been in the bag for Kev if they hadn’t picked this bimbo:
http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,22610818-5014075,00.html
Expect a swing against Labor in Boothby. I’m not joking. She’s absolutely despised by a huge amount of female voters.
Apologies William; I need to learn not to bite at barbs myself.
That would’ve been his prefered option, but he was worried about looking gutless.
I disagree. The 2nd debate in 1993 helped Keating kill off Hewson, because Hewson couldn’t explain his own policy, and Keating was able to constantly show that it implied a tax on everything.
I thought Speers did a very good job with the debate. I expected the worst and it didn’t happen. I also thought the journalists asked some very curly questions to both leaders.
Only a little, Chinster. I suspect Rudd’s win combined with the tax policy will prevent the Coalition maintaining its momentum from last week, so that this week’s poll results will be similar to last week’s.
“Only in Australia … do supermarkets make sick people walk all
the way to the back of the shop to get their prescriptions while healthy people can buy cigarettes at the front.”
Er em we don’t allow supernarkets to dispense prescriptions. Where did you copy this from?
No 522
Hewson shot himself in the foot a number of times prior to such debates. The birthday-cake interview, the dumb rallies whose only substance was shouting get rid of Keating, and so forth.
Channel Ten lead the news with the brawl over Liberal interference over the worm. Brilliant!!!!
Paladin – that story was a total beat-up.
The journo in question has been practically stalking her for weeks (if I were her I would get the police involved, to be honest). The story was that Garrett knew he was running late and rang through to tell her to start getting out and chatting to people and he would catch her up. No story here – nothing at all – and look at what the reporter tried to beat it up into.
He’s an absolute disgrace.
I saw the Swan clip, he was good. Calm, boring, authoritative. Ive been maintaining here at PB for some time that he’s quite under rated.
You gotta remember: he’s written books on socio-economic policy issues. Costello, by contrast, is a good public speaker, with some pat lines, and a lot of wind-assistance from a massive bureaucracy called Treasury, and the good luck to follow Hawke/ Keating and sit out an international boom.
I frankly think a LOT of people here would be shocked to see what happens if they went head to head in a debate (not that anyone would want to watch it, I admit)
It wouldnt be pretty viewing, but Id lay $50 on Swan to show Smirker up.
Surely you need to compare attendance as a proportion of eligible voters, i.e. citizens who are 18 or older.
It was savage. I can’t wait to see what Nine says.
Ten News led with the debate. The worm was the star ( even on 10)The political reporter lambasted the Liberals for attempting to subvert democracy. He said Rudd has regained the initiative. This story will lead 7,9 and the ABC News – and will again dominate tomorrows media ( expect for any Newspoll). There will be a Rudd bounce – and the narrowing will become a widening within a week.
Charlie @ 395
You are right. This must be discussed with due consideration. It is not a political exercise. But it is a legitimate subject for discussion.
Those of us on the left of Australian politics have a worm in our being: it’s called compassion. Even for our sworn enemies.
Chris b Channel 10 only have the Simpsons going for it! I believe it’s coverage is often biased.
528 Chinster
You might be right but she does not help herself and seems defensive. The 2 minders recruited from Rann also don’t help her image also.
She just should have had some quality coaching. She’s quite personable and seems intelligent enough but has a real image problem sorry to say. She needs to get onto it quicj smart.
517 Generic Person Says: October 22nd, 2007 at 5:00 pm
He would have, if he wouldn’t have looked completely and utterly gutless.
If he wanted to prove he wasn’t as scared as he seems, and he certainly looks scared, he’d have another debate. Ergo, he’s running from a fight (something he specifically said he never does), because he’s scared he’ll lose.
The worm must be worth another 2-3% to the ALP in the next poll.
Ten news said it was undemocratic, in the next shot you saw Abbot saying it was rigged. Only made them look worse.
$80 million! All for us, babes..ta, Uncle Johnny.
I agree with Chinster, that journo from the ’tiser is a mug. I honestly think that people are getting a bit fed up with the media’s attacks on Cornes. She might well end up getting some extra votes from people who think she is being hard done by. After all, no other candidate in Adelaide is being subjected to the same level of scrutiny. The Aussie sense of a fair go might help Cornes in Boothby.
It looks like there were about 225 million Americans over the age of 18 in 2005. That means the turnout at the 2004 election was about 53% of eligible voters.
529 Lefty E
I’d lay a lot more than $50 from what I’ve heard from the inside. Some of what I’ve heard over the years is frankly unbelievable. If I ever heard a second or third source I don’t know what I’d do.
Channel 7 will balance the ledger with its bias to the conservatives.
534 John of Melbourne. Yeah I suppose thats all you can say. Which is exactly what Abbott was saying. What will you say about 9 & 7?
No 536
I repeat, debates are irrelevant. The history proves it.
Awaiting more info. Any more under that raincoat?
Nicole is a very nice, pleasant person to talk to and I think the more they can get her speaking to people one-on-one, the better chance she has. Southcott has been a pretty unforgettable member, evidently, so it’s not like she’s up against a strong incumbency factor.
I agree that she doesn’t look confident when she has to deal with the media, but who can blame her for being wary when everything she says is twisted around and even the good things and spun to look bad.
I know it’s a big ask, but I would love the media to just ignore her for the next few weeks – like they do all the other Labor candidates – and let her get on with the job.
544 Generic Person. Yes, but political interference is not.
Anyone wanna have a go at the inflation figures due out later this week? I reckon they will be at the higher end but the RBA will bottle it and not raise rates during the campaign.
525 ruawake : good get on 514. This list is an old internet chestnut; usually it’s Brits, Scots, Irish, etc. John of Melbourne is clearly a great original thinker. Not.
544 GP
careful – “history shows debates have been irrelevant” is a better way to put it. History proves nothing, though when analysed it can reveal patterns.
I understand your point, but why hang your credibility on a pattern?
As already stated – the debates are important in the US – the pattern is different to ours in the past, but there’s no guarantee on the future.
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