Reflections on the Miracle of Democracy at Work in the Greatest Nation on Earth

The verdict

Verdicts on the debate in today’s papers divide neatly along organisational lines, with News Limited observers saying it was close and Fairfax giving a clear win to Rudd. The commentator who comes closest to calling it for Howard is Sid Marris: speaking with colleague Dennis Shanahan on a video at The Australian’s website, he judges that “John Howard was stronger, but Kevin Rudd didn’t suffer a loss”. Shanahan decries the “Rudd-centric” worm, and says only that the Opposition Leader “won because he didn’t lose”. Also on the video are Paul Kelly, who says Howard was “very much on top at the start but I think Rudd finished better”, and Sky News man-of-the-hour David Speers who gives the debate to Rudd “on points”. In the newspaper itself, Matthew Franklin gives Kevin Rudd a “narrow victory” in the face of a “well above par” performance by the Prime Minister. Doug Conway of the Courier-Mail calls it a draw, offering the wearily familiar assessment that “neither Mr Howard nor Mr Rudd made a disastrous blunder, nor did they land a lethal body blow on their opponent”. Only Mark Kenny of The Advertiser breaks ranks, saying Rudd “unquestionably had the better of it”, while echoing the customary caution that “the longer term political significance is unlikely to be great”.

By contrast, the headline in The Age tells us of “Rudd’s decisive win”. Michelle Grattan declares Rudd “the clear winner”, “sounding confident and convincing against an opponent whose energy flagged and temper flared”, while Tony Wright rates it “Rudd’s night on most fronts”. Similarly, the Sydney Morning Herald’s Peter Hartcher reckons Rudd the “clear winner”, and says he has “cemented his claim as frontrunner”. The assessment of the Canberra Times is that Rudd won “because he didn’t debate. He had a plan to sell and he came, he saw and he sold”. In the other non-News Limited paper available to hand, The West Australian, a report by Chris Johnson and Shane Wright talks of Rudd “clearly getting the better of the Prime Minister”. Political editor Andrew Probyn also gives it to Rudd, saying the Prime Minister was “on the back foot … over WorkChoices, climate change, leadership and interest rates”.

834 Comments

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  1. 551
    Generic Oracle
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 5:18 pm | Permalink

    Well, being “Generic” I can hardly complain about there being more than one! However, for the record: Mr Person and myself have no connections beyond the shared primary moniker!

    As for Mr Howard’s health/fitness for office, I seem to recall users with some of the same handles on this blog in some “horror”, when it appeared that the Liberal party had leaked information about Mr Rudd’s “heart valve replacement”, calling this no less than a smear campaign and incredulous about how the Libs could “sink so low”.

    Now, the same bloggers here are content to speculate about Mr Howard’s mental capacity or otherwise, from the objective measure of a TV screen??

    In the words of an infamous Australian Parliamentarian: “Please explain?”

    PS: Being soundly positioned in the middle, politically (as I commonly need to state to avoid projectiles of decaying vegetables), I say this not as a coalition supporter but a commentator here. At the risk of overdoing a cliche “What is good for the goose is good for the gander”..

  2. 552
    Pi
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 5:18 pm | Permalink

    # 544 Generic Person Says: October 22nd, 2007 at 5:14 pm

    debates are irrelevant. The history proves it.

    History proves otherwise, but we’ve already discussed your inability to differentiate between objective truth, and your own subjective belief.

    Howard is running from the fight. He doesn’t want another debate because he’s scared, and he only had this one because he would have appeared completely gutless. But even then, he chose five weeks out… because he was scared of the result right before the election.

    Which proves he never runs from a fight… but only when the person can’t fight back.

  3. 553
    The Chinster
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 5:18 pm | Permalink

    You know, I had a suspicion on Sunday night that this worm business wasn’t going to go away.

    2001 was Children Overboard, 2004 was Tampa – will 2007 be Wormgate?

    :)

  4. 554
    imacca
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 5:19 pm | Permalink

    I’m going to be so glad when Newspoll comes out, regardless of the result, as it will hopefully kill off any posting about the Debate/Worm.

  5. 555
    paladin
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 5:21 pm | Permalink

    546 Chinster

    Fair enough. It’s just that SA is ripe for the picking for Labor and I would hate to see this seat lost for wnat of a half decent candidate. This is sheep stations we’re playing for :)

    I still stand by my call about feamle voting sentiment and unfortunately in politics perception is reality.

  6. 556
    John of Melbourne
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 5:21 pm | Permalink

    ChrisB I acknowledge that WaxonWaxoff07 won the debate. Howard looked far too nervous and it came across in his voice. I don not think however that the Ch.9’s coverage was interferred with. Surely the Libs wouldn’t want that sort of publicity?

    How can the worm go off the scale? That’s just rubbish!

  7. 557
    The Chinster
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 5:22 pm | Permalink

    I think you might be right about female voters; on the evening that I met her, the women around me were bitching about how thin she was…

  8. 558
    Generic Oracle
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 5:23 pm | Permalink

    Please. I implore you. NO MORE “GATES”!!!!

    If I were PM, it would be my first (and possibly only act) of censorship on the media… to make the use of scandals with the suffix a criminal offence (subject to the death penalty on the caveat that I might check the current polls on death sentence popularity before making my final position!!!).

  9. 559
    Thommo
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 5:23 pm | Permalink

    “The worm must be worth another 2-3% to the ALP in the next poll.” Yes but the worm will be offset by Kevin ‘Ear wax’ Rudd. Seriously the average punter cares little for worms or debates for that matter.

  10. 560
    ruawake
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 5:25 pm | Permalink

    The only reason Ch9 had the worm was to get people to watch them instead of the ABC or Sky. Whoever chucked a wobbly and thought they should “pull the plug” is a dill.

    Of course we could pay Morgan $19,800 and see what the worm really meant ;)

  11. 561
    Julie
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 5:26 pm | Permalink

    553
    The Chinster Says:
    October 22nd, 2007 at 5:18 pm
    You know, I had a suspicion on Sunday night that this worm business wasn’t going to go away.

    2001 was Children Overboard, 2004 was Tampa – will 2007 be Wormgate?

    Nice that Howard’s tricks of the past will come back to bite him in a unusual fashion this year ;-) … “Live by the sword, die by the sword”

  12. 562
    Lefty E
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 5:26 pm | Permalink

    Generic, the suffix banning scandal would of course bring down your PMship, and later be known as “Gategate”.

  13. 563
    passthepopcorn
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 5:27 pm | Permalink

    generic oracle, no smearing intended on my part, and it’s not the general feel i get from others on here commenting about howard’s lack of physical and mental robustness. i think it’s legitimate to comment on what seems to be happening with howard’s health now, especially because he’s elderly, but ludicrous to bring up a mitral valve replacement which really has no bearing on rudd’s capacity, physical or otherwise.

  14. 564
    John of Melbourne
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 5:28 pm | Permalink

    #560 Maybe somebody will.

  15. 565
    Lefty E
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 5:28 pm | Permalink

    Morgan should be able to enlighten us on the % of soft worming we saw.

  16. 566
    Lord D
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 5:29 pm | Permalink

    No Newspoll hints on the Tas commercial news? I reckon there would’ve been had there been a significant movement to the govt. Will wait for ABC.

  17. 567
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 5:29 pm | Permalink

    Thanks to whoever posted the transcript about Ray McGhee, confirming he is running.

    Generic Liberal said that Labor hacks are spreading rumours about Howard’s health. Speaking as a card-carrying Labor hack, I haven’t said a word about Howard’s health, and I don’t think the health of either leader is a matter of legitimate debate. But who spread the story about Rudd’s operation, hmmm?

  18. 568
    Burgey
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 5:31 pm | Permalink

    The last Morgan Poll which showed the bounce back to the govt correlated with a drop int he number of people who said they thought Australia was “heading in the right direction”.

    I wonder if that factors in with what has been posted previously – that maybe people thought the country was heading int eh right direction because they thought Labor would win.

    To that extent, perhaps Labor’s vote isn’t as “soft” as is being protrayed at Morgan and in the MSM.

  19. 569
    Crikey Whitey
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 5:31 pm | Permalink

    Don’t know why your’e all questioning Johnnie’s valour. He went to war, you know.

  20. 570
    ruawake
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 5:32 pm | Permalink

    Morgan, soft worm thinks Australia is headed in the right direction – Greens announce free worm farms for all.

  21. 571
    onimod
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 5:32 pm | Permalink

    551
    a please explain from me:
    I was as concerned with the Rudd health issue as I am with the POSSIBILITY of a Howard problem.
    The community at large had no concern with Mr Rudd’s heart, as far as I’m aware, before it was raised in the meeja.
    My (elderly) mother called me up after the debate last night to say ‘you’re right – he’s lost it!’. I speak to my mother maybe half a dozen times a year. It’s an observationally raised issue, just like the smirk, or the fact that Downer seems consistently on the verge of tears. As I said earlier I hope it’s stress, but if it was my mum acting like that in public and it was affecting her job performance, I’d be wanting to have a concerned chat to her GP pronto. It’s certainly not being raised without basis, and it can also easily be allayed. It’s certainly not being made as an allegation demanding a response, but the talk is out there. To avoid mention it in a forum for analysis such as this is crazy. This is not a vehicle specifically designed for wider publicity – it’s for discussion & learning.

  22. 572
    Crikey Whitey
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 5:33 pm | Permalink

    Nick Xenophon has chosen a running mate, which apparently will give him a spot above the line on the Senate paper.

  23. 573
    alpal
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 5:38 pm | Permalink

    Just watch Oakes on 9 tonight – leading the news. He will deliver.

  24. 574
    John of Melbourne
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 5:39 pm | Permalink

    It’s amazing I have looked at the majority of news sites connected to News.com.au and they all say JWH won the debate.

  25. 575
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 5:42 pm | Permalink

    Baroness McKew of Bennelong on with Richard Glover on ABC Local Sydney 702 right now till 1800

    She is not a union thug it seems

    Also Geoffrey Cousins and Richard Neville.

  26. 576
    John of Melbourne
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 5:47 pm | Permalink

    http://betelection.com/elections/

  27. 577
    Alex McDonnel
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 5:55 pm | Permalink

    Tory Crimes – 548 I predict the inflation rate figure will be 1.0% for Sept Qtr. The economy is on fire. What will the RBA do? Glenn Stevens seems to be a very straight shooter and has said that the election would not impact on his decisions. I predict he will raise interest rates by .25 on Melbourne Cup Day. The problem for the RBA is that if there is a figure above .8, making the annual rate around 3, it should move rates up. But, if they don’t do it in November and delay until Dec or Jan, they will be seen as acting politically by deferring until after the election.

  28. 578
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 5:57 pm | Permalink

    556 John of Melbourne Won the debate? He blew him away. Chanel 10 made note of the worm was going through the roof for Rudd, and how it dropped to the bottom for Howard when he got negative. This whole thing might have been missed if the hadn’t tried to censor it!

  29. 579
    Gary Bruce
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 5:58 pm | Permalink

    576 – I wonder why John. I bet you’ve contributed many times.

  30. 580
    Edward StJohn
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 6:01 pm | Permalink

    The Senator told me a 52-48 for Newspoll has been ordered by Supreme Command.

  31. 581
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 6:01 pm | Permalink

    It too much like the chatter in the lead up to the about the Melbourne Cup and Oaks day as the commentators size up the horses performance at the Caulfield cup. Does the debate really influence any swing voters… I doubt it. The value of the worm is also debatable. How many people get more excited by the direction of the worm then the content of the debate

    I think they should be able to show the worm in reply/archive footage but the live broadcast is best without the worm.

  32. 582
    Ashley
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 6:02 pm | Permalink

    Apologies to all those who have a mortgage, but I am fervently praying for a high CPI rate of 1.0%+ on Wednesday.

  33. 583
    John of Melbourne
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 6:04 pm | Permalink

    Just keeping you informed GB. :-)

    CB I don’t know about blowing him away the rhetoric was the same well spun c*ap it has been all year from both sides.

    I don’t think the worm should be on the screen whilst the pollies are talking I think the should take time to show the worm after each pollie has said there piece, it detracts from the message.

  34. 584
    ruawake
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 6:05 pm | Permalink

    I sincerely hope that interest rates do not rise, but if they do John Howard is in trouble. Remember that it took until the bank letters hit last rise until the polls turned.

    The first Tuesday in Nov will be crunch time.

  35. 585
    Howard Hater
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 6:07 pm | Permalink

    Laurie Oakes just dropped a huge bucket on the Liberal Party and the National Press Club on Nine News. Relations between Howard and Channel 9 must be at an all time low: very favourable coverage for Kevin Rudd tonight.

  36. 586
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 6:07 pm | Permalink

    Yes! Channel Nine too. More savage than Ten. Now what do you say? Nine is biased too! Didn’t see Sevens, Can’t wait for Current Affair. Two News and 7:30 report. Oh I forgot. They’re all biased.

  37. 587
    Eddie-C
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 6:09 pm | Permalink

    John of Melbourne is this where you got it from
    http://www.velocityreviews.com/forums/t48190-to-yank-scumbags-out-there.html

  38. 588
    Ashley
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 6:09 pm | Permalink

    ruawake… There’s a very high probability of an interest rate rise sometime in the next 6 months… may as well have it now methinks.

  39. 589
    alpal
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 6:10 pm | Permalink

    Arise, Sir Laurie. As I said in 573 -he delivered.

  40. 590
    Gary Bruce
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 6:10 pm | Permalink

    Channel 7 didn’t lead with the debate, not even in the first two stories. Obviously felt left out.

  41. 591
    Lord D
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 6:11 pm | Permalink

    So no Newspoll hint on Tas ABC or on any commercial network in the Eastern states? This isn’t looking good at all for Team Rodent.

  42. 592
    John of Melbourne
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 6:11 pm | Permalink

    Lol, wasn’t Waxy working for Laurie Oakes as a cleaner in his younger days? Surely that and it being Channel 9 how started the whinging would indicate a biased opinion?

  43. 593
    Swing Lowe
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 6:14 pm | Permalink

    Well, the punters certainly think they know who won the debate…

    http://www.smh.com.au/news/National/Rudds-performance-swings-betting-to-ALP/2007/10/22/1192940977849.html

  44. 594
    Gary Bruce
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 6:14 pm | Permalink

    Just saw a Labor ad on climate change – impressive. chaneel 7 as it turns out. On channel 9, I have 2 TVs, at the same time, there was a union ad. The “good guys” are up and running.

  45. 595
    Howard Hater
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 6:14 pm | Permalink

    Lord D: maybe there isn’t a Newspoll tomorrow?
    Or the GG is censoring all leaks because it’s bad for the Rodent?

  46. 596
    onimod
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 6:15 pm | Permalink

    Nice ALP Climate ad on 9 – why couldn’t he have been that concise last night?

  47. 597
    Burgey
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 6:15 pm | Permalink

    Why would a President of a political party call the NPC to tell them NOT to pull the feed.

    Seems very odd, tbh.

  48. 598
    imacca
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 6:15 pm | Permalink

    Maybe Newspoll got so annoyed at the leaking of their last effort that they are punishing us addicts?

  49. 599
    Gary Bruce
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 6:15 pm | Permalink

    Lord D it may mean no Newspoll too.

  50. 600
    onimod
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 6:16 pm | Permalink

    596 sorry – 7
    Gary – turn my telly of!!

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