If you believe Jason Koutsoukis of The Age, dumped Labor MP Gavan O’Connor is not only the unanimous inaugural winner of the Mal Colston Medal for Treachery, he is also doomed to certain defeat by Labor candidate Richard Marles in his bid to retain Corio as an independent. Koutsoukis writes matter-of-factly of the perks awaiting O’Connor “after he loses the election, which he surely will”. However, this was written before Glenn Milne of The Australian rocked Canberra* with his shock revelation* that “senior figures at the Melbourne (Liberal) campaign headquarters” were finalising arrangements to preference O’Connor ahead of Marles (* sarcasm alert), placing O’Connor “in the middle of the perfect election storm”.
To provide some historical perspective, I present the recent history of sitting members dumped at preselection who sought revenge at the ballot box. I do not doubt there are a number I have missed, particularly at state level, where the only one that immediately sprang to mind was Steven Pringle in Hawkesbury at the New South Wales election in March. Readers are encouraged to note any such omissions in comments and I will rectify them in due course.
• Moore and Curtin (Federal 2006): The only examples on this list where the independents actually won the day were these two Perth seats at the 1996 election, in which sitting members Paul Filing and Allan Rocher respectively lost preselection to Paul Stevenage and Ken Court (brother of then-Premier Richard Court). These results were widely blamed on the machinations of controversial Liberal warlord Noel Crichton-Browne, although the reality was more complicated. The important thing was that they incurred the displeasure of John Howard. This led to the Liberal candidates’ campaigns being starved of resources, and an apparently accurate perception emerging that the independents retained the imprimatur of the party leader. In blue-ribbon Curtin, Rocher easily outpolled Labor 29.4 per cent to 19.8 per cent, proceeding to an easy victory over Court (39.2 per cent) on Labor preferences. Paul Filing won even more resoundingly in Moore, leading the primary vote with 34.1 per cent to Labor’s 28.4 per cent and the Liberals’ 27.3 per cent. The 1998 election saw both members defeated by less contentious Liberal candidates.
• Wentworth (Federal 2004): Malcolm Turnbull’s well-funded move against one-term Liberal member Peter King succeeded by 88 preselection votes to 70, but King did not take his defeat lying down, announcing he would stand as an independent at a press conference on Bondi Beach in the first week of the campaign. Despite vigorous campaigning attended by intense publicity, King recorded only 18.0 per cent of the vote and finished well behind Labor’s David Patch on 26.3 per cent. While Turnbull’s 41.8 per cent was well down on the 52.1 per cent King recorded as Liberal candidate in 2001, it converted into an unembarrassing 2.3 per cent two-party swing after distribution of King’s preferences.
• Dickson (Federal 1998): After one term as Liberal member, the political career of Tony Smith (most certainly not to be confused with the current member for Casey) imploded when he was questioned by police after leaving a building which housed a brothel. Smith forestalled preselection defeat by quitting the Liberal Party and declaring his intention to run as an independent (so arguably this one doesn’t count). By this time it had emerged that the Labor candidate for the coming election would be defecting Democrats leader Cheryl Kernot. Smith predictably failed to set the tally board alight, polling 9.0 per cent of the vote, and Kernot went on to win by 176 votes.
• Hawkesbury (NSW 2007): Liberal member Steven Pringle was dumped after one term in favour of Ray Williams, who had the backing of the ascendant forces of the Right. It was reported that Pringle lost control after an influx of Lebanese Maronite Christians swelled membership of the Beaumont Hills branch from 17 members to 500; according to the Sydney Morning Herald, this included 120 members who transferred from a branch in Hornsby after leader Peter Debnam denied them an influence there by insisting its Left faction incumbent Judy Hopwood keep the seat. Pringle reacted to his defeat by quitting the party and reiterating the popular theme that it had become “controlled by an exclusive sect, an extremist right-wing group”, of which the “Godfather” was upper house MP David Clarke. This prompted a rebuke from the Prime Minister, who described him as a “hypocrite” and a “sore loser”. The former judgement was based on the manner of Pringle’s own preselection at the 2003 election, when he ousted Kevin Rozzoli with support from what Simon Benson of the Daily Telegraph described as “right-wing extremists as well as the left”. Pringle did succeed in getting ahead of the Labor candidate, whom he outpolled 27.1 per cent to 16.0 per cent, but Williams’ 45.6 per cent primary vote was enough to get him over the line by a 6.6 per cent margin. The margin would have been narrower but for the optional preferential voting system, which saw many Labor votes exhaust.
• Newcastle (NSW 2007): After holding the seat since 1991, Bryce Gaudry was contentiously dumped for preselection in 2006 following intervention by Labor’s national executive. As Damien Murphy of the Sydney Morning Herald describes it, Gaudry had been “regarded as a sincere plodder who made a nuisance of himself during the Carr era with a long-running critique of office-winning policies”, prompting his Left faction to sacrifice him by surrendering Newcastle to the Right in exchange for the Sydney seats of Londonderry and Toongabbie. The Right had initially hoped to recruit Newcastle lord mayor John Tate, who had not been part of the Labor grouping on council, had defeated the party’s incumbent lord mayor in 1999, and floated the possibility of running as an independent at the 2003 election. Tate claimed to have been told when approached that Gaudry was planning to retire, and got cold feet when it became apparent that this was not so, and that the Left-controlled local branches still backed Gaudry. Morris Iemma and Mark Arbib then surprised everybody by having the national executive intervene to support a new candidate, 37-year-old former television news reader and public relations consultant Jodi McKay. This the national executive agreed to do, splitting 13-7 in McKay’s favour on factional lines. The reaction in local party circles was typified by former federal Newcastle MP Allan Morris, who wrote first an open letter to Tate criticising his intention to run for Labor, and then a letter to then-federal leader Kim Beazley decrying the installation of McKay. Tate and Gaudry both declared their intention to run as independents, although Gaudry’s hoped dimmed when it emerged he had not told Morris Iemma of the explosive local rumours surrounding Swansea MP Milton Orkopoulos, a colleague of Gaudry in the party’s “soft Left” faction. Gaudry ended up finishing third behind McKay (31.2 per cent) and Tate (24.1 per cent), and his preferences narrowly failed to push Tate ahead of McKay.
• Noosa (Queensland 2006): An unexpected beneficiary of the 2001 and 2004 Beattie landslides, Labor loose cannon Cate Molloy was disendorsed in the lead-up to the September 2006 election due to her public opposition to the government’s dam-building proposals, which extended to leading protest marches and threatening to introduce a private member’s bill. Molloy promptly announced that she would run as an independent, and held off until the campaign before delivering an angrily worded letter of resignation from the Labor Party (from which she was soon to be expelled in any case for running against an endorsed candidate). Molloy finished a fraction behind Labor on the primary vote, 23.7 per cent to 23.6 per cent, overtaking them with Greens preferences. However, Liberal candidate Glen Elmes’ 38.2 per cent primary vote was easily enough to deliver him the seat, with considerable aid from vote-splitting and exhaustion (Queensland also has optional preferential voting) between Molloy and Labor.
NOTE: Do not feel under any obligation to keep this thread on topic.
284 Comments
In Queensland, Cate Molloy, two-term sitting member, was disendorsed by the ALP for the state seat of Noosa for the 2006 election. The seat was picked up by the Liberals, one of the only reasons for the conservatives to rejoice in what was an abysmal overall result for them.
Even if Labor lose Corio, Newspoll points to 100+ other seats that are likely to be Labor’s. The next issue to watch is tomorrow’s inflation data. If the so-called underlying rate is 0.8% or more, there will be a rate rise on 7 November – and then get set for 60-40.
Lowe 1998.
Paul Zammit won the seat for the Libs in the Howardslide of ‘96. He defected from the Liberal Party in protest at the increased plane noise in his electorate.
Running as an independent, Zammit finished a distant third behind the two major party candidates. Labor’s John Murphy won the day and has held the seat since.
Actually, never mind. I can see why you’ve left out Zammit. He wasn’t ousted in preselection.
Party defectors would be a much longer list. Including the Member for Kennedy.
Does Graeme Campbell fit the bill? Or was he given the flick long before preselections took place?
Pauline Hanson was disenorsed in Oxley but still appeared as the liberal canndidate as nominations had closed.
Which could be an interesting tactic to follow, nominations close on November 1 so any skittish liberal MPs could turn on Howard after this date.
What was that whole Cunningham / Michael Organ / Green thing about?
Cunningham’s back to labor with a vengeance now, so its hard to imagine we once had a Green MP!
“THE Liberal Party is in danger of losing the must-win Queensland seat of Blair despite spending almost $4 billion on it – more than any other electorate in Australia”…
http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,22629977-3102,00.html
Newcastle NSW 2007.
Despite announcing to all and sundry that he was going when confronted with the prospect that he would not be able to choose his successor Bryce Gaudry was defeated at preselection after the intervention of the National Executive in favour of a candidate assessed as more likely to suit the changing electorate of Newcastle and stave off a serious threat to the seat by an Independent challenge from the popular local Mayor John Tate.
Many Labor supporters sided with Bryce Gaudry seemingly on principle rather than out of respect for his record as he eventualy came a distant third to Mayor Tate and Labor’s Jodi McKay.
McKay went on to win a close victory over Tate on distribution of preferences.
Methinks the false narrowing turned out to be merely a ‘dead rat bounce’!!
I know its just one poll. But could 1 week of negative attack ads and nothing positive to say possibly have had something to do with the negative results for Howard in the latest Newspoll?
According to today’s SMH: dumped Labor MP Kelly Hoare is considering running as an independent against Greg Combet in the safe Labor Hunter Valley seat of Charlton.
Tony Abbott this morning once again insinuating that the Australian public are joking around with pollsters, and there’s no way that his government of supposedly expert economic manangers will be punished on election day: methinks the Mad Monk is either completely bonkers, arrogant or blind to the reality of what confronts the Coalition.
Kris Hanna is another iffy one. Did he leave the Greens before or after pre-selection?
Andrew Robb is an idiot. Is anyone listening to him on AM? He has no idea.
Re. Robb: why is it that no interviewer, when confronted with the bald statement that the Libs have been working on their latest tax cut package “for months” (as Robb put it, and he’s not the first) does not ping the government for:
1) Supreme economic incompetence in being congenitally unable to pick a surplus figure asnd stick to it;
2) Deception of the Australian public and blatant cynicism over the true national accounts figures;
3) Perversion of the political process;
4) Egregious hypocrisy in taking months (and it’s only been a few months since the Budget) to come up with a policy and then smarmily condemning Labor for wanting to take a couple of days to look it over?
OK, so all’s fair in love and politics, but this is an outrage. Yet all we seem to get is “clever Dick” type commentary and smirks from Costello.
Rumour from a reliable source: if Turnball loses Wentworth, Phil Ruddock will be told to retire and hand over Berowra to Malcolm.
I am loath to give Graeme Campbell a plug but he was returned as an independent in Kalgoorlie in 1996 after his famous feud with Paul Keating. This enabled the Liberals to get a wedge in and Barry Haase has held the seat for the Liberals since 1998 despite Campbell’s presence in the field in 2001 and 2004. Not sure of Graeme’s intentions this time but his Australia First website continues its jingoistic venom.
Kalgoorlie was a traditionally Labor electorate but the ALP needs 6.3% to get it back. Sharon Thiel is the candidate. Further analysis of Kalgoorlie and the election in general at ‘Labor View from Broome” http://laborview.blogspot.com/
Turnball is fighting hard to keep Wentworth, virtually dismissing Howards nuclear reactors as not needed.
After November 1 I would expect Turnball and others to distance themselves further from Howard and Costello to try and save their seats and form the base of a reformed liberal party.
‘Dead Rat’ bounce – ‘Dead Prime Minister’ bounce, no difference. Maybe Brandis should be given an AO for that.
From The Australian:
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22632105-11949,00.html
JOHN Howard has departed from the Government’s re-election script by deleting all references to Peter Costello in a personal letter sent to voters in the Prime Minister’s own seat of Bennelong.
The Australian has obtained a sample of six postal vote letters from Coalition MPs, covering lower house and Senate seats in Victoria, NSW, the ACT and Northern Territory.
“Make no mistake, the decision we make at this federal election may change the future of our country,” is the common opening for all the letters.
The opening statement is a bad tactical error. Voters already know that their election choice will change the future of the country. That is precisely why they are backing Rudd so strongly. This letter just reminds them of that.
More free kicks for Labor, brought to you by the geniuses at Liberal campaign headquarters.
Whilst I doubt Turnbull will lose Wentworth, I’m surprised that he hasn’t already shift to Ruddock’s seat.
Surely Ruddock can’t plan to serve another full term?
Howard jeered by rowers in Adelaide this morning LMAO
http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/more-jeers-for-howard/2007/10/23/1192941020697.html
Would Lucy be prepared to give up the Vaucluse mansion and move to Pennant Hills?
I don’t agree with those who say there has been no narrowing of the polls. The Liberal vote seems to have narrowed considerably.
And yet the Mad Monk, Smirky and Dolly Downer want to pretend the polls aren’t accurate. Election night will be even sweeter if I get to see these bullies in tears LOL
On the whole Costello putting out a challenge to Swan for a debate, Costello is about to make a tactical error. Swan was in fine form last night, and he will only have to draw or come close to Costello to make the ever waning ‘better economic manager’ vote to be neutralised.
Also, tomorrow’s CPI figure will tell if we’re on the path for another rate rise, and if there is speculation that there will be one in the short term Costello will have to face that too.
Though as someone said, debates are all the Libs now have. But the ALP this year isn’t the same as the one in 04.
*does her happy happy dance*
fonzie fonzie where art thou fonzie
Cunningham doesn’t count as Martin resigned mid-term and Bird was N40′d – that’s what caused the local revolt, although the irony was that Bird was the likely candidate in Throsby until George was N40′d in there. However, there was no dumped ALP candidate running (Chris Christadoulou was the unlucky one), but a union candidate instead.
And Kris Hanna resigned from the ALP post-election, was a Green for 2 years, did not gain preselection to the #1 spot on the Greens ticket for the SA Leg Council, was preselected as a Green in Mitchell (his Assembly seat) and then quit and ran as an independent when it looked like he wouldn’t win as a Green – which was probably a smart career move on his part.
I think that Cossie will get beaten by Swan, and slaughtered by Rudd if it comes to Debates. Still in terms of shoring up their base the simple fact that Cossie is going up front may help.
If Cossie goes a Deabate the same way he goes in parliament (and he is likely to revert to type under pressure) he is stuffed.
Also, there is a lot of ammo for an opposing debater laid up from Cossies previous indiscretions that will now be fired at him.
Rattus Crews reasoning could be;
We are so far behind there is nothing to lose and people may warm to Cossie as alternative PM if he is seen to be the brave one fighting a rearguard action, taking an attack to the barbarians at the gate.
The payoff for the Libs is substantial in terms of their firewall strategy IF Cossie wins, and they are so far behind at this point the risk of a Debate loss doesn’t really matter in a practical sense.
Sol L on ABC this morning with Virginia Trioli still bangin on about the soft vote. “1 in 4 make their minds up in the last week, 1 in 10 make their minds up at the booth”. Hope that 1 in 4 or 1 in 10 suddenly realise that Team C-oward’s time is up!
Howard did a deal….no kidding.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22633517-12377,00.html
Here is a great bit of commentary from Malcolm Farr in The Telegraph:
“John Howard’s chances of retaining office are officially over if a shock Newspoll is replicated on November 24″
Gee, shock! Horror! What a great piece of journalism .. I thought EVERY POLL for the last year has said, if replicated, howard would lose office.
How much do these guys get paid?
Yep, there’s a narrowing in the polls alright – on economy and national security. I loved the satisfaction differentials too: Rudd +42, Howard -3. Seems to be some sort of message there…
Greenway, Pringle and Bartlett
The view from the Hawkesbury is that the local Libs are still unhappy with the treatment of Pringle. And now they’ve lost their other local, Kerry Bartlett who’s gone over the mountains to Macquarie. My understanding is that Bartlett wanted Greenway, but they didn’t know what to do with Louise Markus so he got shoved. Meanwhile, the locals are not exactly supporting the ALP candidate Michael Vassili, but they’re not helping Louise Markus either. Expect a good showing from the Green’s candidate (whose name eludes me for the moment), or perhaps an independent as a protest in the treatment of locals! Greenway should be safe Liberal but is not behaving that way.
Costello: “I’ll be very, very happy to debate with him [Mr Swan] the economy, tax, anything he likes really,” he said. “I don’t worry about worms.”
Is he having another jibe at Howard here? The bloke can’t help himself.
I’m thinking Channel 9’s election night coverage will be more fun to watch, particularly if Ray Martin and Big Laurie start laying into the Liberals: REVENGE OF THE WORM?
The ABC seems so intent on not upsetting Howard or the Liberals, indeed bending over backwards to give them all much more airtime.
I guess the right wing hacks on the board are now in control of news/current affairs.
Assuming the Libs are basically anihillated on Nov 24, it will be interesting to see how the current party breaks apart and if a new small L party emerges. Turnbull would probably be leader, but who else would form the nucleus of the new party?
I heard rumblings at one stage about increasing the independence of the ABC, perhaps along the lines of the BBCs licensing system so it wasn’t beholden to the government and squeals of bias every few seconds. Did this ever go anywhere, or are there plans to reraise it that anyone knows of?
At the GG, “Cheney, Howard struck deal on Hicks”:
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22633517-12377,00.html
Another lie exposed.
Is it too early to discuss, if this poll is true, which Ministers will survive, which will not, and which will buck the trend? I make one prediction – Mal Brough will buck the trend. He has been one of the few to hold his nerve in recent weeks IMO. The rest seem spinless and will be judged as such.
Sorry, I meant to say the rest of the Ministers have been “spineless” not spinless. How could I have made that mistake??
I haven’t seen the individual seats odds change with this poll. I suppose it depends on people betting. So come on everyone throw some money onto the marginals, win some money, and ratel the coalition like nothing else.
I wish they had trifectas, quadies and straight 8’s.
Stirling, Deakin, La trobe would be great bets and you will double your money
Speaking of the Hicks deal, and the tragic recent combat death in Afghanistan, could they begin to explain the reported narrowing in Newspoll of Howard’s previous lead on the issue of national security?
“Worm invited to Costello-Swan debate
Posted 24 minutes ago ABC Online
Treasurer Peter Costello has welcomed a head-to-head debate with his Labor counterpart Wayne Swan, and has opened the door for the controversial worm to enter the fold.”
So, you thought Subprime $weetie was nothing but a Smirker, eh?
Better think again.
Enter The Worm Master.
Socrates: if the newspoll result was replicated in an election, these ministers would be tossed out:
Turnball
Gary Nairn
Howard
Cameron Thompson
Mal Brough
Fran Bailey
Smirkster
Hockey
And probably a few more I can’t think of
yeah, I think Tip will be all over him, wonder why they agreed to this?
If swan sticks to facts it will be an easy win. Tip is an economic freud. He has handed in an essay that his mother wrote got a great mark and hasn’t been found out yet.
Good work AnthonyL, Newcastle is a glaring omission. My recollection of Cate Molloy had been that she had quit, but I think disendorsement is close enough to preselection defeat so I’ll add her as well. Pretty sure the same is true of Graeme Campbell. Other suggestions don’t quite meet my strict requirements, but thanks for the memories all the same.
I like to maintain a pretence of fake objectivity in my comments, however I’ll make an exception in this case.
I hope Gavan O’Connor wins.
Go Gavan !
No particular reason. The demonisation he’s receiving turns me off his critics, plus it spices up the election a little.
Anthony L at # 9 re Newcastle at the state election.
you state:
“came a distant third to Mayor Tate and Labor’s Jodi McKay.”
Distant ??
the final results prior to preferences were
Mckay 13166
Tate 10,159
Gaudry 8870
To describe that as a distant 3rd is, to quote our PM after November 24, a bridge too far.
the count before Gaudry was excluded was
McKay 14153
Tate 12507
Gaudry 11485
Gaudry finished third but it wasn’t too far behind. He was actually closer to Tate pre and post preferences than Tate was to McKay.
Jason Koutsoukis is easily swayed, to say the least. Click here to put his latest missive in perspective, and here for a celebration of Jase.
You missed Tony Windsor, failed Nationals candidate for the NSW seat of Tamworth, whose political career will almost certainly outlast that of his nemesis John Anderson. SA and WA have long histories of “Liberal independents” and “Labor independents” who build long careers in the face of hostility from those machines and tacit support from those within the ranks.
Here’s the Smirk’s big chance to get called on why he’s letting the Rodent sink the ship.
Swan can hold his own on the numbers, but ‘Team Howard’ is not a popular brand and the Smirk will have a very hard time explaining why he’s not leader.
Cossie likes to hide behind the minutiae, nit-picking on the arcane details, but on the big one, ie his leadership credentials, he’s going to look very lonely up on that stage. Swan has a very big target to hit on this score.
Alright I am going to go off topic and say that Rudd is a jerk for saying he is against gay marriage. What an insult to the thousands of gay men and women who want to marry their partners.
William, I believe Cate Molloy resigned in order to contest as an independent after being dumped by the party in preselection. However, I’m a (temporarily) ex-pat Queenslander, so my recollection is based on my vague memories of internet-only news reports at the time.
I am particularly intrigued to see Labor’s response to Cossie’s debate challenge. Perhaps Kevin should take up the challenge to debate Cossie, as regardless of who “wins”, it will reinforce the perception that Howard is yesterday’s man AND give greater prominence to Costello in the campaign (which is likely to be a negative for the Coalition, notwithstanding their commitment last month to campaigning as a Howard-Costello team). I’m not sure I would warm to Swan in a debate of the treasury spokesmen (again the ex-pat disclaimer applies), although at the very least it would raise his profile. My suspicions are that no further debates will occur.
Re. the Swan/Costello debate…
Costello has about as much control over The Smirk as Dr. Strangelove had over The Arm.
The Smirk will appear, probably within the first two minutes. Soon after that Costello will descend into his oh-so-patient-sounding “talking to the kindergarten kids” tone of voice. Next up The Lip will curl, The Grin will appear and the bovver boy shoulders will begin hunching. Finally we will see The Nasty Smile as he begins to get argumentative with questioners.
It will then be all over for the Treasurer and hence for the pathetic fantasy of the Co-Prime-Ministerial Dream Team.
No-one wants as Prime Minister a self-satisfied, spoon-fed, born-to-rule, smirking schoolyard bully who’s been handed anything important he’s ever possessed on a plate.
His appearance with Downer at the debate the other day reminded me of this:
http://www.law.umkc.edu/faculty/projects/ftrials/price&bowers/CP&RAINE.jpg
A failure as a person because he doe not have the self-confidence to stand up for himself. At least Howard has that.
I hope Costello shows up Swan, that would be awesome!
I hope the personable side of Costello comes across
Meng, you can refresh your memory here:
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/qld2006/noosa.htm
54 dembo
In principle I totally agree with you – sexuality shouldn’t form the basis for discrimination in any form.
This sort of issue at election time has to be recognised for the wedge that it is and to that extent I think the response from Kevin here:
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22633516-5013945,00.html
is about as good as it’s going to get.
http://www.ozpolitics.info/guide/elections/fed2007/election-calculator/
check out who goes who stays at this Oz Politics calculator.
According to Simon Jackmans site the average Labor lead is 54% 2pp and according to the calculator that would mean Labor gets 87 seat. Wow
soozie @ 35
The Greens candidate for Greenway is Leigh Williams. He is a Hawkesbury City Councillor.
I think both Costello and Swan will have an awful lot of coaching before next Tuesday. On recent performances:
Costello was pathetic on the weekend, interviews and debate.
Swan was polished in his presser yesterday, but a little eager when talking to Red Kez.
The issue for both of them is ‘who is the target audience?’ Rudd clearly has the skills to present to a range of audience. I don’t think Wayne & Peter quite have that same charisma, so they’ll have to nominate a target and work to it instead. If you pick the wrong target, it doesn’t matter how well you do in the slightest. Costello’s natural target is the opposition during Q-time and his general public record is poor. I’m rating Swan as ‘improving’ – at least he has a smile – and that’s always a cut through.
Onimod, Swan reminds me of Moe the Bartender in the Simpsons no matter how much he smiles he still looks aweful he has the charisma of a brick.
This debate will make or break Costello’s Prime Ministerial ambitions. If Swan looses Labor will say he lost to an incumbant Treasurer at least he gave it a go.
At this point I am reminded of the example of a famous philosopher, Thales of Miletus, who also turned his analytical skills to practical matters. One year when he realised that there would be a bumper harvest of olives in Miletus, he purchased options on all of the olive presses, and reportedly made a fortune. Perhaps it is time to buy shredder machines in Canberra..
More seriously, if the writing is on the wall, how will the rats on the sinking ship behave? The smarter ones have already retired or taken new jobs in Italy (hi Amanda). But what do the rest do? I take it it is too late to get appointed on contract into the public service? Last time I saw a governmetn approaching a train wreck at a state level, all sorts of apparachiks were parachuted into teh pubvlic service, oftne into jobs they were unqualified to do. Watch the government gazete (the real one
closely in the next few weeks.
On the ozpolitics calculator labor only needs 52.1 to form government. They are toast!
Jason Koutsoukis is right. O’Connor knew the game and probably played the game. Politics is like that. He lost preselection and now he got all toity about ‘Labor and the Unions’. I am sure he would have welcomed Union support if it came his way.
He is a rat.
Bit harsh Guido.
I personally believe People don’t vote for the candidate rather they vote for the Leader of a party or the party through the appointed candidate.
On Newspoll, can someone tell me if there are records that go back for the published polls to the campaign in 1983?
I’m unable to recall Labor ever having a result like this in a campaign.
Costello in a debate? The worm will demonstrate more spine!!
#66 Centaur that is presuming a uniform swing.
That’s stinging stuff from Jason Koutsoukis. Wouldn’t have passed defamation law 15 years ago. And it does seem odd to damn OConnor in such moral language in the same breath as saying what a nice bloke he is!
The argument makes two claims.
One. That you live and die by the rules. Fair enough. You lose preselection, you have one option – legal action. If not, well every party excludes you for runing/campaiging against it.
But the other claim is a cultural one. Namely that it is invariably right for a party to not just ignore you, but to be damned as a ‘rat’. That can’t be right – Senator Georges is a case in point. It’s also a curious claim when ‘lose control of the branches’ is equally a euphemism for ‘out-stacked’ as it can be for ‘a lazy MP loses rank and file support’.
Sometimes party rules need flouting. The obvious case is the ONP needing to split in Queensland. That was a healthy dose of ‘creative destruction’. But when most of its 11 MPs turned into independents, or the ‘City Country Alliance’, every Joe Blow was calling for anti-party-hopping laws, and citing Mal Colston as if it were a precedent.
Yes John it’s what I’ve said too, which is why I say 20 seats 4 majority and then 5 after the bi election.
Does Costello know the debate will be about ecnomics and tax?
Centaur_007 I hope Maxine doesn’t get in even in a bi election, but if Bennelong want her…
What would it be about otherwise Kina?
First Cut: Wayne Swan press conference
Wayne Swan talks about tax, childcare rebates and CPI
http://www.abc.net.au/news/video/2007/10/22/2067197.htm
Swan should try pinning the ‘low altitude flyer’ tag on the donkey
Yes, O’Connor played by the sword dies by the sword, etc. But if Libs and Greens preference him then he’s got a good chance. That was a strange article by Koutsoukis … methinks trying to make up for his recent string of hard core articles about leaks and democrats
Re Costello/Swan debate. Smirk will get his Treasury lackeys to draft some pop questions to lay on Swan and he may get a bit flustered. But, if Smirk behaves like he does at QT then the public will be turned off. LikeSsunday’s debate, it will have little impact on the vote.
Costello is banking on presenting a better looking image.
The problem Swan has is that he knows too much and can’t get it out fast enough. He knows his stuff well.
If the audience frame questions with economic terms Costello will flounder. AND Swan & the questioners have a great deal of ammunition.
Costello’s lack of responsibility in stopping Howard’s prolific spending [castigated in no uncertain terms by McQuarrie banks Chief Economist], the real cause and source of Australia’s prosperity, the cut in funding to States and services etc… the list is endless.
What does Costello hope to catch Swan on? Nothing, there isn’t a question Costello couldn’t ask Swan that he couldn’t answer.
So I bet Costello is not intending to win the techinical debate but just to ‘look’ good. BUT Swan has an ability to get right under Costello’s skin and could well send the Tip overboard.
If tomorrow’s inflation figure is high, then Swan would be able to hammer Costello over inflation, and use F.U.D. to blame him for the chance of another interest rate rise.
In some ways Costello V Swan would be more interesting than Howard V Rudd.
Even with the great debate being a big yawn, the biggest yawn of it was talk about economics. So I guess we will have the longest yawn-fest ever next Tuesday night. Labor will talk about that has been no real micro-economic reform and since both sides of politics have very similar macro-economic views it will just be Costello trying to pull figures out of his head about how damaging the ALP’s policies will be.
My bet is the worm will be more entertaining watch it flatline for both sides.
If Swan is such an economic genius then why did his advice muck up Latham and Beazley? Opposed tax cuts and said $600 rebate wasn’t real.
Where has Labors productivity arguement gone?
Centaur 20 seats to the ALP would mean a ten seat majority, twelve after the bielection.
As John points out, that 52.1% TPP needed reflects a uniform swing. Labor may win with somewhat less, depending on where the swings really are. Peter Brent at Mumble makes a good argument for Labor probably only needing 50.5% this time around. William links on the home page if you’re interested.
Why can’t Mr. Howard stand up and take the blame for the worm fiasco? Why is he always dodging? Why can’t he say the buck stops with me? Anyway, they’ve found their scapegoat and guess who cut the feed… yep, public servants! (Though to be fair, even the PS aren’t sure they did it!)
“Department of Parliamentary Services secretary Hilary Penfold says she is unsure how the order to cut the feed was passed to her staff.
“Who knows where they actually were, they may well have been in the Great Hall for I know, but [it came] from someone on behalf of the Press Club,” she said.” (from ABC).
Yeah, and don’t worry about Swannie, without the protection of Mr. Speaker, Mr. Costello will be shown for what he is… ‘a low flying aircraft’. Mr. Costello is a goose who is lucky he’s had Mr. Howard there to prevent Australia seeing it more clearly far earlier.
At anyrate, the days of the flamboyant treasurer are well and truly over – Australian’s want staid and stable from a treasurer… Mr. Keating was a one off – Mr. Costello’s mistake was to model himself on Keating. Swannie will be the trusted bank manager from a country town (for the first 8 years anyway!)
Well all Costlelo can do is say isn’t it great how much money the governmetn will give back to tax payers.
Whereas Swan can show that their tax plan helps education, health, and child care.
I tend to distinguish between lower and upper house for party hopping / floor crossing.
I mean, seriously: nobody, not one person, except perhaps his family, ever voted for Colston. They voted ALP. There’s a least a case for a personal following in the lower house (though its pretty weak)
Im all for anti-party hopping legisaltion in the upper house. You leave your party, you resign, and we go back to your party for the replacement.
The East Timorese have recently introduced it for their lower house (which is party list proportional system – so not “personal” voting either).
The whole Colston episdoe was one of biggest travesties ever foisted on us.
Swan v Costello
should Howard and Rudd be in the room?
I think what’s important here is to consider who has played the factional game and who hasn’t. O’Connor never played the factional game, and he has been punted for it.
This is in contrast to Pringle and King, who did play the factional game then whinged about it. O’Connor has a leg to stand on, whereas Pringle and King are just losers.
i would assume the Costello-Swan debate will be on tuesday afternoon. Normal Press Club lunch day.
Is Mal Colston dead yet?
Yeah, four years ago _but_ he did survive 6 years after initially being diagnosed with cancer (…and thus avoiding prosecution).
according to wikipedia…
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mal_Colston
Dr Malcolm Arthur Colston (5 April 1938 – 23 August 2003)
Well that sucks, if it is during the day 9 won’t bother showing or worming it
Swan can also point out his tax plan is implicit approval of the governments tax plan.
Costello should ask Swan when did he and Labor become economic conservatives after having voted against most government economic reforms such as GST?
Costello should ask Swan why raid the future fund if you have a surplus from which to draw money from broadband?
The nail in Swans cofin will be when Costello asks him how will Labor look after working families when prices go up to meet greenhouse gas targets?
Do “bi-elections” support gay marriage or is this a description of a gay Asian male?
54 Dembo -this is a classic Howard wedge issue – he brings it out at every election. I would judge Rudd on his deeds rather than his attempts to avoid being wedged.
But that would mean Costello has to stop attacking it, else he is attacking his own tax plan.
Spending the surplus has increased inflation, which has resulted in interest rates going up five times, when the current government said they wouldn’t go up.
By cutting wasteful spending that has put pressure on inflation, and thus interest rates. Interest rates have gone up five times since the last election 9 times since 2002, whcih has increased mortgage repayments by $2000 a year.
Seriously… who is going to watch Costello debate Swan? I won’t be. They’re both repulsive and poor media performers.
Both will just spin away on numbers that noone understands, Costello will make lots of ‘funny’ jokes that will please Lib supporters but turn everyone else off and Swan will mutter on and seem generally unconvincing.
There… I’ve summed up the debate before its even happened. I can’t see any gain for the Coalition in this to be honest, they already are perceived as the better economic managers and the only way from here is down for them. Costello fluffing up would be majorly damaging to their campaign.
John of Melbourne
Swan will say we approve of the coalitions tax policy because we advocated it in the budget reply speech in 2005.
Swan will point out that Labor is the only party that has done any real tax reform. (The GST is still not a plus for Costello).
The Future Fund is not being “Raided”, the Govt has already said it will sell the Telstra shares in the fund.
Costello will not go anywhere near greenhouse gasses.
One thing different about this debate is Labor doesn’t require it – Swan and Co can set the terms, venue and refuse to go ahead otherwise – no one will care. And frankly nobody is going to be watching this except the Tragics.
Costello can attack Swan on Labor their initiatives like they tried to with Rudd, but as we have seen already when asked a question, everyone tends to answer their own version of the question.
If Costello wins the debate, no one will care; if Swan wins no one will care. The only way Swan loses is if he is shown to be incompetent – but he is an economist or at least studied at Uni I believe and, has spent many years on it – he won’t sound incompetent because he has a pretty good idea of the mechanics of it all.
I think the real risk in this is for Costello’s credibility as Treasurer and potential party leader. His character leaves him at risk of blowing it.
Said in the previous thread re:738 Tory Crimes Says: October 23rd, 2007 at 10:51 am
Isn’t Costello co-leader? If there’s any debate on offer for Costello, it should be Rudd that spanks him.
Swan should specify that he wants to debate the next treasurer… perhaps Downer?
if the ALP’s wildest dreams come true after 24/11, the road between Brisbane and Cairns ought to be renamed the Bruce-Howard Highway, a moving testment to those PM’s who lost their electorates in the heat of battle.
The road’s location in rural Qld is particularly appropriate. By duplicating random 10km-long sections of the isolated part of the road between Rockhampton and Mackay, the Bruce-Howard Highway could also serve as a potent symbol for inept and piecemeal rural/regional pork-barrelling.
Oh, and on the gay marriage thing, it’s stupid but expected. I have strong opinions on the matter and believe the government should not be dictacted to by the majority but rather decide what is the right path to take.
If the matter is something that you decide your vote on, I’d suggest you look at the record of all parties concerned. Undoubtedly the minor parties (The Geens and the Democrats) will have the most courage to deal with the issue, as they don’t need to worry about the backlash they’d receive from other prospective voters (as much).
Of the majors I’d say the ALP has the stronger record at a state-based level. Having lived in WA, the Gallop government was great to take the action it did early in their first term. An unpopular move surely, but the right thing to do. I don’t imagine there’ll be a major raft of social policy reform in the first term Rudd Government, but I know there won’t be in the 5th term Howard Government.
Remember the Senate.
to 89:
Rattus hrattus better be nowhere near a camera if the Smirk debates Swan or Rudd.
If he was, then it would make it to easy for the ALP to hit him with questions about his past statements that have bagged Howard.
I can see it now. Camera switches to Howard for reaction. ALP gets double value for each attempted hit no matter what the Smirks response is. Story the next day is all about Team Howard-Costello NOT!!
Better if Rattus takes a short vacation somewhere very private for any debate featuring the Smirk, and the day after. At this point it cant really hurt his chances.
On another topic, looks like the ALP campaign in Wentworth isn’t going that well. Maybe Turnbull will be one of the last ones standing after the rout,and can fight it out for the leadership with Wilson and Julie post election.
Thanks ShowsOn
{But that would mean Costello has to stop attacking it, else he is attacking his own tax plan.}
All I ask is for Swan to say the Coalitions tax plan is tops!
{Spending the surplus has increased inflation, which has resulted in interest rates going up five times, when the current government said they wouldn’t go up.}
Isn’t the future fund proceeds from the Surplus thus also being Surplus? In Swan says we will run Surplus’s in excess of 1% to keep interst rates low well then he has won.
{By cutting wasteful spending that has put pressure on inflation, and thus interest rates. Interest rates have gone up five times since the last election 9 times since 2002, whcih has increased mortgage repayments by $2000 a year.}
Please nominate an ares of wasteful spending? Interest rates are lower under the Coalition then Labor! True to say that houses are more expensive but the other side of the coin is that people now have more wealth. Real wages have gone up 25% therefore decreasing the pain of mortgage rate increases what was the real wages increase under Labor?
LOL! F’ing brilliant!
97 John of Melbourne
1 meh – politics. If the LP haven’t yet realised that the very mention of Labour owned issues does them harm then good luck to them.
2 The mechanisms of the future fund are a free hit for anyone who knows what’s going on here – Costello won’t touch it with barge pole.
3. Easy – ‘How will you Peter?’
Costello’s problem is that the electorate is realising that no-one owns the world economy. He’s not the gatekeeper of anything secret any more.
That whole “low interest rates” furphy might come under some scrutiny. As my monicker suggests I know a little about this area and, last I checked, AUstralia had the second HIGHEST interst rates in the OECD and we’re catching up on the kiwis quick smart.
I’ll do some digging and get back to you.
I get a higher % return from my Bendigo account than the friggin future fund does. As economic management, its a sick joke. And sorry, punters just dont care about fed public servants super – which is affordable from general revenue anyway.
These “funds” set up by the government to are complete rubbish. Raid em. Get a better economic return from putting the money into infrastrcture anyway. Costello is a economic dunce.
Another couple of examples sitting members losing party endorsement and running as independents.
McMillan 1972. This was mentioned briefly in one of the threads last week. Sitting Lib lost endorsement and ran as an independent and directing his preferences to Hewson, the Country Party candidate. Hewson won the seat with only 16.7% of primary vote.
Willoughby 1978 (NSW state election). Sitting Liberal Laurie McGinty lost preselection and ran as an independent. The ALP’s Eddie Britt won on McGinty’s preferences.
Lefty E is not the future fund just a big Superannuation account and if so by extension then is our personal Supper rubish as well? Was this then bad policy by Hawke/Keating?
Rates Analyst I have had a look at the formula’s on Wiki that pertain to Interst rates and if a Country like Australia wants to keep interest rates low all it need to is either run a large Surplus or increase its population presuambly by taking in many immigrants?
It’s a joke. We need to use the billions in the future fund to build clean power infrastructure, and to build new water infrasctructure.
If we don’t have clean water and clean power in the future then our economy is completely screwed.
Why didn’t the Federal government spend the last decade building desalination plants in every state? They had the money, but they just pissed it up against a wall each election campaign.
Yesterday Howard was in Adelaide promising $30 million to a desalination plant that is probably going to cost $750 million. Is he for real?
if a Country like Australia wants to keep interest rates low all it need to is either run a large Surplus or increase its population presuambly by taking in many immigrants
So that’s how they;ve been doing it.
John, john, john (of Melbourne). You don’t really understand that much about the economy do you.
Back in ‘83 Howard had interest rate at 22.4% but because there was a regulated financial sector the banks couldn’t charge more than 13%, therefore artificially sheilding the public.
25% real wage increase isn’t much consulation when the average wage to the average house price is 10x. During labors time it sat around 5x and 6x.
May I also add that petrol/food/childcare charges have doubled at least since then ie risen 100%
Why don’t people like how Costello performs at question time? I work for Hansard and so am in there pretty much every sitting day and I always want Costello to be on his feet because he is so much fun. He is a fantastic performer in the House. While I am a Labor voter, I am a big Costello fan. Well, I was a big Costello fan until he gutlessly wimped out on challenging. But he is a great speaker.
I very much doubt that Ch 9 would televise a debate between Costello and Swan; it just wouldn’t make good ratings for them. Only the ABC would cover such a debate, so only us poll tragics would watch. Unless Swan really screwed up, low-involvement voters simply won’t take any interest.
Nobody watches parliament. How he ‘debates’ in parliament would not win the hearts and minds of swinging voters.
D.G:
1) I presume some people find Costello entertaining in the same way some people found Keating entertaining. The flip-side is also true.
2) You may want to get William to delete the second sentence of your post.
ShowsOn that didn’t address my question.
However on your points. Water: as former Premier Peter Beatie said back as late as 2003 there was no need to worry about water.
As for power the market will sort that one out. We need to move to a hydrogen based economy (by product water) but the problem there is how do you store it insuffcient quantities. Advances in society come with advance in energy
re 113.
I have much more authorative sources than Wiki. Me, for example. (B Com Hons (First Class), B Ec)
Whilst running a large surplus would tend to reduce interest rates, the real problem in Australia is that the economy is currently hitting capacity restraints. This means that any growth is only in prices, not volumes.
Indeed, a Government surplus does hold down interest rates by REDUCING GDP. That’s right. “Go for Growth” – but in the attack-dog sense of the phrase. Running a surplus deliberately reduces growth by reducing the amount of Government spending.
What the country needs to do is invest the surplus in projects that INCREASE the capacity restraints – that way they’re not inflationary. Say, a realistic investment in education so that the skills shortage doesn’t drive up prices. If you spend the surplus creating more capacity in the economy you get low inflation AND more growth.
I do not know which wiki site you refer to, but please note that the increase in population by migration would seem to be a tacit acceptance that the problem is the constraints on the economy. While the migration issue seems to be tackling a simple labour shortage constraint, we have a more complicated skilled labour shortage. But the principle is the same. We need to import more skilled people en masse – or perhaps we could just invest in educatino properly and train our own.
When you have muliple degrees in the area please feel free to respond.
Abbott admits the government is screwed:
“This poll is radically at odds with the experience we have had in the streets as government members over the last couple of weeks,” Mr Abbott said on ABC radio.
“It would be an unusual Australian electorate that would take a big risk with its future on polling day.”
Private Liberal party polling showed the Government in a _somewhat_ better position, he said.
So is that private polling 54 / 46?
If the Libs internal polling was so good wouldn’t they keep it to themselves so as not to give Labor any advanced warning?
Who knows how Abbott is thinking these days.
Malcolm Turnball consorting with the Exclusive Brethren:
http://au.news.yahoo.com/071023/2/14qp7.html
Just listening to The World Today! Andrew Robb: pathetic! Any chance Labor could pick up Goldstein?
Lose the Election Please,
What is the problem with my second sentence? (I am not sure of the rules here).
David Gould @ 117
When at the dispatch box, the man presents as a maniacal, red-faced, big-barking-mouthed, floppy-chinned, smirking, smug, sneering, bully-boy adolescent ranter.
So, yeah, I agree, lots of fun; and a big turn on for women I’d imagine.
p.s. that’s off the record of course.
If Labor gets today’s Newspoll figures on election day, Goldstein is in the bag.
I don’t get the presumption (not here, but everywhere else on the web) that Costello would wipe the floor with Swan. This is the kind of poisoned thinking that made so many of us idolise Keating, not realising that what we true believers saw as high theatre, everyone else saw as sneering arrogance.
Costello is, after all, the K-mart Keating. He can only do worse than his secret idol. Swan, on the other hand, is actually an unflappable guy, and in some ways is a better debater than Rudd.
I agree with some of the sentiments here, I think Costello has set himself up for a fall.
Centaur_007 I don’t know anything about Howards years as treasurer. I do know that financial sector was regulated but I am sure the government of the day used what ever levers it had at its disposal to give it the outcome it hoped for. Wasn’t the objective back then to look after the Aussie dollar?
House prices are contolled by the market as to petrol/food/childcare and maybe by the Visy board, lol. I’m sure all the promised enquiries will lower the prices.
LETP & Showson – I think Abbott’s cpomment was that their internals were better than LAST week’s polls. In other words, they’re in the lead.
Maybe they would keep them to themselves, but the thing is their big hitters are spending a lot of time porking their own seats and safe lib seats, not so much ALP held marginals or even their own marginals.
On the Newspoll, does the sample of 1,700 (bigger than normal) have any effect onthe mergin of error?
He sat on his hands and did bugger all. There isn’t much to know.
Lebovic again making a thorough arsehole of himself on radio. Sol, we all know you’re a Liberal supporter. He just got rubbished again by John Stirton.
re Newspoll, the margin of error becomes 2.5 per cent, rather than 3 per cent.
Jeff Bate, Dame Zara Holt’s 2nd husband, was the long standing Liberal member for Macarthur. He lost pre-selection to Max Dunbier, the local MLA in 1972. At the election leakage from Bate’s preferances (he had managed a respectable 18%), resulted in the election of John Kerin.
Just now watching the morning editon of Agenda on sky (it is replayed all day on Sky news election channel) and seeing Prince Hal of Wentworth try to explain why in the general form letter mail out to electors from all liberial members the only member’s letter not to refer to the Howard/Costello team was the fellow running against Maxine Mckew No mention of Costello in that one.
122
Rates Analyst Says:
October 23rd, 2007 at 12:16 pm :
What you said is exactly what Maxine said on the Bennelong forum on SBS.
I have confidence that Swan knows and understands all this stuff but Costello probably will only have it through coaching.
I don’t see any positives in this for Costello. It is a risk for him because of his character – the smirk, bombastic behavior, menacing manner when under pressure from the questioners and underlying ignorance on economics. Unless they have some big policy release or want to talk up the Econtech report nonsense then they are hoping for one big hug gaffe from Swan.
Andrew E @ #52 says:
Tony Windsor has never been an endorsed Nationals candidate.
In 1991, when Noel Park retired as member for Tamworth, Tony Windsor sought National Party preselection. The preselection was won by David Briggs, a hospital administrator who had only lived in the electorate for a few months.
Tony Windsor ran as an independent and won the seat quite comfortably. He has comfortably won every election he has contested since 1991.
Does anyone know Antony Green’s email address?
I am hoping that on election day the ABC keeps a page with updates of the 2pp vote broken down by each state and territory, and from the state-by-state swings (i.e. current 2pp vote, minus the 2pp vote at the 2004 election).
This “swing per state” data could then be dynamically placed into the state-by-state election calculator to give a running estimation of the election result.
It would be a bit more accurate than using the national swing, because it would take into account difference swings between the states and territories.
It would be great to have a single page that can be refreshed to predict the currently outcome.
Kina at 138
Good! It shows that someone who knows what they’re talking about is helping the ALP.
Mr Rudd made some of these points in the debate too – but they were quick so unless you already knew the point he was making you wouldn’t have seen it.
Thanks for the tip.
The Swan v Costello debate is the “hail mary” pass from the Liberals this election.
If Costello thumps Swan (or Swan self-destructs), the Liberals can go around showing how bad Labor will be at managing the economy.
If it’s a close win for Costello or a draw, the status quo remains – which would be a disaster for the Liberals.
If Swan wins (by any margin), the Liberals’ greatest asset at the moment – economic management – becomes instantly neutralised and ensures that the Coalition goes down in flames.
As such, it’s a high risk, but potentially high reward strategy for the Coalition – but it’s a lower risk, but even higher reward for Labor.
It is not that he doesn’t understand, it is just that he has done very little to break capacity constraints over the last decade. Costello and Howard have prefered to piss money up against a wall to win elections, rather than actually helping to expand the economy.
Thanks Rate Analyst informative.
I’ll respond I only have a simple Engineering degree!
So we have a lack of skilled people. If we do educate our own to fill the skilled labor jobs who will do the other jobs?
Ophuph Hucksake: The Bruce Highway isn’t named after Stanley Bruce, it’s named after Henry Bruce, a former QLD ALP MP and Minister of Works (for the seat of Leichhardt) when it was started.
Swan only needs to come over as a dour cautious economist – it is the Treasurers job after all.
And Swann only need review Bob Hawke’s recent explanation of the cause of our ecnomic strength.
Costello has been put up to it as a desperate attempt to find a fault or wedge somewhere.
what next?
Gillard – Hockey?
Roxon – Abbott?
Here comes the anti-union campaign rebuttal:
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22633682-5013871,00.html
Kina,
I remember hearing Abbott last week on the 7:30 Report issuing a challenge to take Roxon on in a debate. It wasn’t given much attention, though.
Swan versus Costello.
Swan is boring.
Costello is annoying.
It’ll be a draw.
Gillard would thrash Hockey, and Roxon would get a big profile boost if she debated Abbott.
144 – Do I detect a wedge? That one didn’t work with the Sudanese.
Lord D,
I think Gillard would pretty much thrash anyone frontbencher from the Coalition – which is the reason why no one has challenged Gillard to a debate (including Costello).
A Roxon-Abbott debate would be a sure-fire loser for the Coalition. Abbott would be expected to thrash Roxon, so anything better than that would be a perceptions “win” for Labor. Additionally, Abbott comes across as arrogant on TV, which would be heightened by the debate setting and the contrast with Roxon, whilst voters are already predisposed towards Labor’s health policies compared to the Coalition’s.
The 4.3% who are still unemployed – or any number of the large number of people who still under-employed.
For example, a few thousand more Doctors whould make a huge difference to the hospital system, but not much dint on the 4.3% unemployed.
(Pre-emptive rebutal: I’m not suggesting that you train currently unemployed people as Doctors, there’s a cascade effect. Imagine what would happen if you added 1000 places in medicine at University… people who would otherwise have gotten into bio-tech, do medicine, people who would otherwise have done science, get into bio-tech etc.)
There’s also no reason to assume there are actually more (or less) jobs. The more skilled person might replace a less skilled person – and simply produce more. Or you take an unskilled person, train him and then give him a more advanced version of his old job back that replaces his old job. The same number of people produce more things. This is the essence of the “growth in GDP” part of the argument for more skills training.
Beattie proposed buying out Cubbie Station around 2002, to help with the water crisis. John Anderson of the Nationals was not a supporter of the idea.
“As far as I am concerned, the proposal as it stands is dead in the water,†said Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for Transport and Regional Services, John Anderson. “In my view, the Cubby Station proposal fails on all counts of transparency, consultation, science effectiveness and value for money”.
During the 2004 water became an issue, but not as big as now, however there were worries that Howard would use water grant to pork barrell in the 2004 election.
“Mr Howard told the premiers that he would be prepared to negotiate with them soon on individual water projects – a move premiers speculated could fuel pork-barrelling during the federal election campaign. Areas likely to be considered for federal water project funding include the Namoi Valley, in the electorate of the Deputy Prime Minister, John Anderson, who, Mr Howard said, had played a pivotal role in reaching yesterday’s agreement.”
http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2004/06/25/1088144980448.html
Ah, a nice feel-good story for Rudd on FM radio:
http://www.smh.com.au/news/federalelection2007news/oh-my-god–im-your-cousin/2007/10/23/1192941025745.html
If Maxine has been briefed and could get the point across then it could be the end of Costello on Tuesday.
Speak slowly Wayne and repeat…
Now that I think about it I’d be having Hawke and Keating in the room as guests too, parked right in front of Costello. Hawke’s laugh is worth votes.
Liberal backbenchers must really be considering their options now after this Newspoll. I’ll wager many of them are deleting Howard (and Costello) from their electoral handouts and local advertising for fear of contamination. It might be a bit like ‘go for the lifeboats’ with current Libs trying to shore up their vote with their personal appeal and not much else. Sad really.
If Banton joins in advertising in support of the unions that would be a massive blow to the Coalition’s anti-union campaign. They would be in danger of looking like they were trying to pick a fight with Banton, and that wouldn’t go down well at all.
Thanks Rates Analyst
Wayne Swan needs to take a bit of a chill pill and slow down the rate at which he speaks.
He came across as being a bit tense / uptight / over-eager last night on the 7.30 report.
Happy to Help John.
The flaw of the government’s anti-union campaign is that the world isn’t black and white. Not all unionists are good, but nor are they all bad. It seems to me that the only reason the government is running the anti-union line is that they have nothing left to campaign on. At the current rate of Newspoll shifts Rudd will be even on the economy with Howard, so that is no longer an automatic strength.
Each day Hugh MacKay’s ‘waking up’ hypothesis seems more real [http://www.smh.com.au/news/opinion/waking-up-scratchy-from-the-dreamy-period/2007/09/14/1189276986753.html]…it’s about 5:30 am, and boy does the sky seem clear in this morning light.
I wonder if any of the MSM comentators, or pollsters, will be bold enough to pick the coming election as a once-a-generation, rather than once-a- decade wipeout? ie 75, not 96 style.
Im not saying it will be that ( ‘96 is probably more likely)- but there’s a good chance. Enough room for a commentator to stake a bold claim, and possibly come up trumps.
My guess is no – we’ll get boring risk-averse assessment everywhere but here on the blogs.
Left E: it might be a generational one, given the supposed high youth vote the ALP is getting.
on Tony Abbot – this morning he said the he and his fellow Libs were not getting the negative feelings whilst out and about in the electorate. Well, perhaps it’s because people are generally polite and wouldn’t talk to/couldn’t be bothered talking to someone they genuinely don’t like. I understand that when campaigning there are generally three types who talk to you: 1) genuine swingers/undecideds, 2) your party faithful 3) the faithful from the other side whose job it is to stop you talking to group 1.
On cue Will: Howard porks pensioners in response.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22634342-601,00.html
I agree about people being polite. remember when Keating was mobbed by school girls in the 96 campaign. doesnt matter.
Mr Howard said all the decisions had been made prior to the election being called.
“Therefore it is a commitment of government,” he said.
So this is the stuff was about before he called the election.
Shows On @140
On election night, I don’t use the state swing or the national swing. Every prediction is based on the swing within each seats based on the swing in the booths. If you want to predict into seats with no results, usually later states, I use a regression model based on state, region, past result etc, to apply the swing in the seats received into those not reporting. I’ve never used uniform swing to predict election night. You just use the progressive results.
Though speaking of polite – is it just me or does Mr. Howard seem to be coping a lot more stick on his travels these days. Or is it just that it’s being reported?
It would be great to get a youtube clip up of collected public jeers directed towards Mr. Howard… though, it might risk ppl very sorry for him. Better to wait for the post-election period of revisionism for that one.
Alex McDonnel @ 157
I don’t think many backbenchers will be feeling at risk. They’ve been told that their internal polling has them in front and I bet they’d rather believe that. Couple that with anecdotal evidence eg. “I’ve never had any complaints” and statements about how hard they work.
I remember Matt Price saying that all the Liberal backbenchers he’s spoken to remain confident that they will retain their seats.
I wonder this is going to develop into some street gang debate-athon
http://www.smh.com.au/news/economy/swan-agrees-to-debate/2007/10/23/1192941031596.html
Please, not 90 minutes this time.
I expect the worm to be wearing earmuffs.
A big ommission: The Queensland One Nation Class of ‘98.
A number of them contested their seats as independents in 2001 and some managed to hold their seats.
Maryborough – John Kingston
Nanango – Dorothy Pratt, still sitting
Thuringowa – Santa Claus guy (unsure about this one)
Gympie – Elissa Roberts, won in 2001 then was re-relected as an Independent
People forget the Costello vs Crean debate of 2004 – which Crean won.
Just saw the headline ‘Crazy John Dead” and first thought… Mr. Howard… don’t do this to me! It was the phone guy though.
Thank you for your reply.
So will your computer predictions dynamically feed into the ABC election webpages? Or will you only present this prediction information on TV?
Is there going to be a single page that will give the current over all seats prediction using the booth-by-booth and demographic swings?
I usually have about 30 AEC and ABC web pages open tracking what is going on. It would be great to have a single page that has say a picture of the House of Reps chamber, and just shows varying degrees of red and blue based on the data and predictions that are flowing in.
In previous telecasts you show the chamber image occassionally, but it would be great if there was a webpage where you could just click refresh and see the current state of play whenever you want.
Yes, I’m suggesting even more work.
I agree the anti-union ploy just won’t work for the Libs. Unions have been around a long time and people are comfortable about them. Howard carries on as if they’re aliens who just arrived on the planet. Similar situation with Howard’s dire warning of wall to wall Labor governments. If all State and Territory governments were Coalition, would Howard be telling us to vote Labor? By railing at State Labor governments, he is indirectly criticising the people of the States who elected these governments. It also highlights the fact that State Liberals are hopeless and couldn’t win a chook raffle.
@86 (in response to Costello modeling himself on Keating as a parliamentary performer) I think this gives Cossie too much credit: he resembles Keating in parliament because that is his natural style, not because he made a conscious decision to project that persona.
One thing about Keating, though, was that he had different styles for parliament vs. election debates, and it remains to be seen whether Cossie can adapt his style to one more appropriate for the National Press Club (personally, I doubt that he can).
I have been wondering whether, in these Workchoices, scared for your job, benifits etc times, whether people might be thinking:
“Hmm Unions. Not such a bad idea were they?”
The interesting thing here is that there is the potential for Labor to turn the unions into the a negative for *the government* rather than themselves.
I think the Libs have over-cooked their anti-union line. Most people recognise the important role unions play (case in point: current nurses union action in Victoria).
When the government attacks the unions it simply reinforces the negative associations of workchoices… ie. that the government is intent on stripping away the rights of everyday blue-collar workers.
The anti-union line was working well for the Libs up until the weekend. That’s because up until recently they have been able to frame it as “government vs. union bosses”.
But now they are going to cop it. The unions can turn it around very easily with their advertising, and it will soon become “government vs. the ordinary working class”. The unions will replace images of union thugs with everyday people who are trying to earn a crust. Very hard to counter for the government.
I think the nurses strike in Victoria is a plus for Labor while the government continues to pursue an anti-union line. Most of the public sides with the nurses, and so this is a very topical and very positive image of unions at work.
The problem for the Libs is that unions are made up of ordinary people, and not just a bunch of thugs. Once this message comes across more strongly, as the ad campaign kicks in, I think the government will feel a backlash.
Anti-unionism and Workchoices is going to sink this government.
If Unions were a plus Greg Combet would be out there everyday! Where is Sharran Burrow?
money for pensioners
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22634342-601,00.html
Isn’t the money for pensioners grab usually made closer to the election?
For all those crunching numbers – what are the chances of Bronnie Bishop being tossed out if NP numbers are repeated on Nov 24? I would love to see her eat dirt!
Did anyone see her on Sky panel with Mark Arbib the other day mouthing off about not only 70% of Labor front-benchers being union officials but also *socialists* & *collectivists*!!
Arbib was gobsmacked – I think her and the Mad Monk have been drinking the same bong water recently!
yeah, but Tips gotta have something new to talk about on Tuesday
Desperate times / desperate measures.
Considering this is a re-announcement of something announced a month ago, they could just re-announce it again in the final campaign week!
Pancho @ 163
Nice, Pancho, nice …
ShowsOn @177
You will have a front page like this
http://www.abc.net.au/elections/vic/2006/results/
However, we do supress the prediction until I am confident it is correct. If my model is telling one side is winning 76 seats (+ or -3), I’m always more reticent to release it, where if it was 90 (+/-3) I’d be confident on it being published. When the count is 1%, you get a bigger margin of error than when it is 10% or 20%. The closer the election, the longer you have to wait to call the election. On past experience, you can call the majority on 5% counted unless it is going to be close. However, time zones can be a complicating factor at Federal elections.
Our system has a prediction from the moment votes arrive, but of course, you have to let early figures settle down. For this reason, we supress predictions on individual seats until 10% is counted.
With the exceptions of the pause on releasing predictions, the numbers published on the ABC website are the same ones I’m using on camera. Every 2-4 minutes we get a sweep of data from the AEC, and after 1-2 minutes, that is parsed out of our database and sent to the ABC website. If I modify anything in my computer on air, such as over-ridding a preference distribution, it is reflected on the website.
All the predictions in the system are automated using an algorithm I designed when the system was first written in 1991. It’s very rare for me to have to interfere with the automated predictions.
Thanks Antony, looking forward to it.
LEPT “I presume some people find Costello entertaining in the same way some people found Keating entertaining. The flip-side is also true.”
LEPT you can’t compare Costello with Keating!! PK had wit, panche, rhetoric and a very funny sense of humour. Costello has tried to copy PK.
He can be witty at times, but generally comes across as a smug smart arse. Let alone the smirk……..
Anyway, Costello has no depth, can’t imagine him delivering the “Redfern Speech”. All tip and no iceberg.
Here is some vintage PK putting Captain Smirk in his place:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aaLLP4sc_6Q
What the hell is Costello doing in Tasmania again?
Is is just what conservative politicians do when there’s nothing else on (hide)?
Did they pay for journalists to fly today?
I was watching Swan on the 7.30 report last night and there is a few thing that he needs to address. The first thing is that he talks too fast. He appears to have all this information to get out and it rushes out as he tries to get all of it into the debate.
He would be better off slowing down and emphasising and developing a couple of salient points, preferably ones that the man in the street can understand. If he gets stuck he can always pick up one of the points he was not intending not to use and develop that thread.
Secondly, he has a habit of jumping in and answering the question before it is fully asked. Again he would be better off waiting until the question has been fully asked.
Finally Swan has a habit of smirking himself. It gives me the impression that he is thinking, “what is this idiot talking aboutâ€. It is the look a lecturer give a smart-ars know it all in economics 101.
This might be applicable to Costello but it won’t go down too well with Joe voter.
164 Lefty E Says: October 23rd, 2007 at 1:00 pm
Or Canada circa 1993…
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canadian_federal_election%2C_1993
Cheney, Howard ‘did deal on Hicks’
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/10/23/2067496.htm
I wonder how much traction this will get. Howard caught out in yet another lie?
Will (#145) – thanks for clarifying that the Bruce in ‘Bruce Highway’ was not S.M. Bruce. I could never understand why that highway had been named after a P.M. who apparently made just 4 trips to Queensland in his 6.5 years in office!!!
Assume the Liberals’ polling is as bad as Newspoll. Is it perhaps possible the truth is being kept from J.W. Howard and other senior Liberals (or perhaps watered-down)? If that seems like a ridiculous suggestion, keep this in mind: I was watching the 1996 election coverage the other night (I keep all election night telecasts, 9 and ABC, on video – its tragic, I know!!!) and late in the night there is this exchange between Laurie Oakes and Gary Gray:
LO: Did you know tonight’s massacre was coming?
GG: On the basis of polling over the past few weeks, yes, absolutely
LO: Did you tell Paul Keating?
GG: No, there was no point, would hardly help matters
the Brethren are going their hardest, in Wentworth this time, it credits the report to the GG but i cant find it on their site.
http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,22633583-5005962,00.html
SJP, I’m not arguing with you. I’ve never once found Peter Costello funny. I assume Liberal Party supporters didn’t find Keating all that funny either.
One thing you can’t really accuse Mr Keating of is being a particularly popular person, and he wasn’t populous. I think parliamentary watchers have been very starved of anything of much interest over the last 11 years.
Simon, thats just Howard still pretending his special relationship with a soon-to-be defunct US regime means squat. Whcih it doesnt. This is his daftest electoral pitch since Incentivation.
I note he never mentions the FTA anymore. Boy, did we get rogered there.
Antony one of the ongoing rituals of my life involves election nights and your contribution to my experience of the night has been incalculable. I will never forget the introduction of your innovation of matching booth on booth results which took the guesswork out of whether the swing was “real” or not.
BTW you are very popular amongst a number of my female friends.
Judy 197 – The Brethren are geniuses! Do you think that their ‘Keep Australia Christian’ flyers are for the Jewish bloc, or the gay bloc in Wentworth?
I’m a bit nervous about Swan. He is not yet as popular as Rudd and/or Gillard. How much exposure / experience he has on public debate?
Should we have a debate between Gillard and Hockey as well?
Howard Hater @ 12
She better hope that there are no ComCar drivers in her seat
Alex @ 157
The “go for the lifeboats” theme was taken up by Moir in the SMH this morning:
http://www.smh.com.au/cartoons/
Unfortunately I doubt the Howard/Cheny deal will do much more damage here. I think most peopel already realise It won’t help the government recover any credibility on its ability to handle security (if he was guilty why a deal? if he was innocent why so long without trial?). But an interesting side question is if it will have any impact in US politics. Cheney is already very unpopular, but the suggestion that the US does deals contrary to their military interests will not help the right wing nut-bar vote in 2008.
Pi @194,
I think we need to settle down a tad about predicting an election like Canada 1993.
The result there was primarily due to the first past the post system over there. Whilst there was a definite rise in the Liberals’ vote, the conservative votes fractured into the PCs, the Reform party and the Bloc Quebecois. The split meant that the PCs got thumped in Ontario (a Liberal stronghold which got even stronger) and the prairie states (conservative stronghold, but the split conservative vote between Reform and the PCs meant that the Liberals ended up winning most of the seats).
I think it’s a bit too early anyway to be predicting landslide results – I’ll be happy with a Labor win (even if it is through a minority government…)
Paul Keating’s remarks about the economy that Costello inherited….
â€this guy got hit in the a%$e with a rainbow.â€
Don’t forget the stabilising influence of compulsory voting as well. Voters really pissed off with their own party have to turn up to vote in Australia, where in other countries they can just stay home.
201 frank frederic Says: October 23rd, 2007 at 1:55 pm
Jeezus… it’s not like we’re talking about a school-boy here. He either sinks or swims. If he can’t go toe-to-toe with Costello, why the hell has he got the job? Imagine how he’ll deal with criticism once he delivers an unpopular budget?
Any politician would be viewing this as an opportunity! National coverage on TV talking about the subject that you consider yourself the expert on.
http://thebulletinelection.ninemsn.com.au/lib_hq_to_mps_bring_out_your_dead.htm
“People are shitting themselves. There’s no other word for it,” says one Liberal campaign worker in the Coalition election HQ at 120 Collins Street, Melbourne.
“Bring out the coffins.”
A Lib campaign insider who I’ve quoted regularly in recent months, e-mailed me this, off the back of Newspoll, this morning: “Howard said last week at the opening salvo that `love me or loathe me . . . well, maybe this latest poll going backwards (a $34 billion step forward, two poll points backwards) indicates that the loathing bit is outweighing the loving bit at the moment.
“On these numbers, he’s not going to get there on ‘experience’ alone or his ‘personality’ – indeed, and bizarrely so, Rudd seems to have cornered the market on the ‘cult of personality’.
“To paraphrase a former leader, it’s time to flick the switch to policy. Not just tax give-aways and mouthing a ’standing on your record’ mantra, but a full frontal policy attack – carpet-bomb the country with new policy – not giveaways. It’s policy stupid, not personality.”
The Speaker: Only Kingston and Pratt were re-elected from the One Nation class of 1998. Ken Turner (Thuringowa), like the others, went down in flames.
# 205 Swing Lowe Says: October 23rd, 2007 at 1:58 pm
For the record, I lived in Canada up until the year before, and the mood in the electorate was very similar to what we have today. Both of my parents were supporters of the conservatives.
The mood is very similar.
Chris @ 196
Gray was actually acutely aware they were going to get pantsed for some time in the lead-up into the 96 election.
He actually had told Keating several times as far out as 6 months from the election but keating essentially refused to believe it.
I think there might be a bit of that going on here.
Chris 196 – you really are a polling/election tragic! I thought I was bad enough. I can’t see how the Libs private polling would be any different to Newspoll et al. It would be a case of ‘don’t tell the emperor that he has no clothes’. Also, ‘don’t shoot the messenger’ would be in play. I guess a few Liberal Party staffers would be updating their CVs.
Oh, and another one for the dumped in preselection files – Loraine Braham, member for Braitling in the NT Legislative Assembly. Former CLP minister and Speaker, got dumped before the 2001 election, quit the party, easily re-elected as an independent, and re-elected again (albeit more narrowly) in 2004. The NT is a bit different though – there’s been a couple of people who’ve pulled off that sort of thing.
LTEP, Keating wasn’t popular because he devoted his energy to fulfilling his vision for Australia, his “Big Picture”. We been enjoying the economic dividends of his restructuring of the Australian economy, the “J-curve” for the last 13 years. He achieved far more in his tenure as PM than Howard has in 11.5 years. Indeed history will look back on the Howard years as the “Wasted Years”. The Keating period will be seen as the “Foudation Years” that launched Australia in the TwentyFirst centuary as a medium economic power.
Read the book by Keating’s speech writer Don Watson. Keating thought he was going to lose both the 1993 and 1996 elections.
agree with Socrates@204,
Cheney is second after Bush as far as Iraq war critics in US concern.
If being poodle to Bush makes Howard unpopular, then a dirty deal with Cheney only drags him down further.
This news is a slap-on-the-face to liar Howard, who denied such a deal was made.
Herbert ALP candidate, George Colbran, says that Liberal MP, Peter Lindsay, said nuclear power is the way forward for Townsville. Now there is a war of words of what was or wasn’t said.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/10/23/2067715.htm
Labor only has to follow up with its anti-nuclear power station ad and it will help George.
I think it is the other way around Cheney convinced Bush that it was a good idea. Bush had an extremely isolationist foreign policy when first elected.
And the first policy of the day is announced:
http://www.smh.com.au/news/economy/4b-for-pensioners/2007/10/23/1192941038909.html
Pi@208,
agreed, life is tough, so be it
ShowsOn @ 209
Thanks for that link. Bloody hell! However, until I hear the rattle of horse and cart in the wee small hours and a voice crying: “Bring out your dead …” I will remain nervously pissed.
Battle for Dobell increases because of slip up of sitting member who said funds for the new pipeline could be frozen if the federal government doesn’t agree with the people getting on the board overseeing the project. Most of Dobell is on level 4 water restrictions. Health and IR are major factors too.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/10/23/2067379.htm
223 – Will: I spend a fair bit of time in Dobell. Anecdotally (sp?), I think it’s gone for the libs. Water’s a huge issue there, so is WC and infrastructure coz so many people up there commute.
oy in february i went on about Canada and the rightoids had kittens
well here is a secret- i wasnt just talking about the electoral rout BUT in fact the mood being so palpable but no-one in the MSM would believe it
also like the 49 oz election the new media will decide the day.(menzies won 49 purely on his radio speeches-unknown till he tried it)
too late rightards:the REAL clarion call was to all those disaffected who realised that the internet is the equivalent of 17th century pamphletting
and consequently a plethora of underground movements have sprung up
so who cares re numbers it is really the MESSAGE that was important
pps this is gusfaces last communication as Gvt “people” have already begun “harassment” over my identity-you know who you are (and luckily so do I)
ppps im just a naughty boy who cares first about AUSTRALIA second about politics
Go the RUDDER of the nation
sayonarra tragics
The more I think about the statement of the sitting member for Dobell, the more I think it will be the same for the 750 public hospital boards. I.e. jobs for the mates.
If they do worm Costello, they’re probably going to need to expand the scale in the negative direction. When he got mentioned on Sunday, the worm flatlined. I think that the current system has people dialling a number from 0 to 9 – perhaps they could have a special Costello mode that goes down to -5 or so.
As far as Antony’s coverage goes, pretty much every political tragic I know hangs out for him on election night. I was at a standup comedy event last week where one of the comedians on stage was talking about how much he also looks forward to him, so I guess he’s part of our popular culture now.
anthony baxter @ 228
“If they do worm Costello …”
As a dog owner, I appreciate the necessity of regular worming. The little one is not a fan of the process and spends the next day or so boot-scooting around the back yard. The two big dogs look pained and say: “What? What have I done ..”
It’s messy, on the whole, but as a responsible owner, I take it as a duty.
gusface@226
Don’t know who you are, but will really miss your wisdom, wit and insight.
Go The Ruddster
gusface, I was lucky to catch your final post, having been away. Good luck and I’ll miss your contributions.
Gusface 226 is on song. The ether is chockers with the unquantifiable, that special something that sounds soft and silly – the ‘vibe’. And it’s a vibe that has been cultivated from a wee seedling on Mr Bludger and Mr Possum etc. Psephos and number junkies may question this qualitative pulse taking, but I reckon we’re on for a change big time, the verandas have been swept and the baseball bats are out, here is Australia’s swing zone, please insert head Mr Howard!
gusface, perhaps not sayonara but until after the election? If Rudd wins, you can pop back surely!
this doesn’t look good for Coalition:
“… Environment Minister Malcolm Turnbull says he cannot explain why the prime minister deleted references to his deputy in election material.
“… John Howard deleted references to Treasurer Peter Costello in letters sent to voters in the prime minister’s Bennelong electorate, according to The Australian newspaper….”
http://www.smh.com.au/news/National/Turnbull-cant-explain-Costello-omission/2007/10/23/1192941031500.html
is the rift between Howard and Costello so deep and un-repairable?
so much for the team Howard-Costello!
Howard doesn’t want to remind his constituents that he is departing sometime next term if he wins. Hence no Costello reference.
I think the simple answer to the whole Howard not putting Costello in his election material is that Howard is running scared in Bennelong. Why remind voters of his half-bake scheme of standing down as PM in 18 months? I bet C/T said word association of Liberal rather than Howard-Costello would have been better to retain the seat. Showing Howard-Costello means the electorate still misses out on a PM somewhere along the line.
This thread has gone quiet since Gusface was taken to the gulag by ASIO.
If the Swan Costello debate is going to be on during the day time next week you can be assured that viewer audience will be only those incapacitated in their hospital beds with the TV stuck on the ABC.
Swan only needs to play it calm and smooth, he knows the answers and most of the questions. Would be a nice contrast between a calm and collected Swan and a bombastic chest beating smirk.
gusface. Hope all is well. Cheers.
gusface,
Thanks for the memories.
I’ll miss ya, mate.
Ackerman making a fool of himself on Agenda
long live the blog, gusface and good luck
Kina @ 238
Yes. The people know Costello. They don’t know Swan, so maybe some interest there, but not a lot. Bushfire Bill referred to Costello’s “speaking to the kindergarten kids” tone, which might work in Question Time, but not on national television.
Costello has one ploy: start quiet, dodge the question, switch to loud, rant … bow to audience. A one-act wonder. A well-rounded politician needs a bit more than an ability to deliver a few poor jokes at a barby.
FF@234
{ Environment Minister Malcolm Turnbull says he cannot explain why the prime minister deleted references to his deputy in election material.
“… John Howard deleted references to Treasurer Peter Costello in letters sent to voters in the prime minister’s Bennelong electorate, according to The Australian newspaper….â€}
Malcolm Turnbull pot – kettle – black
As a Wentworth voters, we have received very, very expensive Malcolm Turnbull brochures in the mail,’printed on recycled paper using environmentally-friendly vegetable-based inks’ 210mmx 210mm, 20 pages of glossy (not high-gloss- more soft sheen) pix, Malcolm here; Malcolm there; Malcolm & Family; Malcolm & kids; Malcolm & President Hu signing ’something’; Malcolm Protecting our Icons….
Where is John Howard? Where is Peter Costello ?
Not even a mention, let alone a ‘Happy-Snap’ of either with Malcolm.
Who is funding this mail-out?
Turnbull should make it very clear, there are reports he’s had meetings with The Exclusive Brethren and they are supporting his campaign.
Akerman on Agenda? Well, there goes my Agenda watching for the day. Wouldn’t waste my time. Actually that applies to most days.
Howard can’t even take a trick, Rudd finds relative on breakfast radio this morning.
http://www.smh.com.au/news/federalelection2007news/oh-my-god–im-your-cousin-rudd/2007/10/23/1192941025745.html
I was just watching the Lateline piece from last night. According to Andrew Bolt, telephone phone-in polls are harder to rig than the worm-poll.
It’s not just Piers who’s been huffing the News Corp liquid paper supplies, clearly.
I just noticed that The Australian has removed today’s online poll that asked readers to nominate to which party they would give their primary vote. It was only up for a few hours, whereas the other poll on who won the debate has been up since yesterday morning.
I wonder why they took the primary vote poll down so quickly. Perhaps it had something to do with the fact that it was showing a whopping primary of 67% for Labor and only 24% for the Coalition (when I last looked). I guess any further suggestion that the government might lose the upcoming election was just too much for them to bear.
What I find interesting is that virtually all of The Australian’s online polls suggest that the largest proportion of their readership are Labor or Greens voters. And yet, they maintain such a blatant pro-Howard, neo-conservative agenda.
Judging also by the fact that invariably, comments on all their politics blogs run at about 90% pro-Rudd, I reckon that The Australian’s readership mostly consists of those who read it for entertainment rather than as a credible news source. The mocking of Shanahan, Albrechtsen, and even some of the others on the blogs seems to be a popular sport, and deservedly so.
Has this once reputable paper really sunk so low? It lost credibility a long time ago. Integrity has also gone. And even their ability to influence the vote is probably non-existent, especially given that the polls haven’t really shifted despite all their best efforts to try to re-elect Howard.
With the loss of influence, and increasingly being viewed as a joke by many of its readers, combined with reports that the paper also fails to turn in a profit, you have to wonder what on earth Rupert Murdoch is thinking in continuing on this path.
The paper is in desperate need of a clean-out, including a new editor, to restore it to anywhere close to its former glory. It couldn’t be more of a joke than it is now – it’s a sad state of affairs when the best attention it gets is from Labor voters lining up to mock its predictably woeful and amateurish political analyses.
{Howard can’t even take a trick, Rudd finds relative on breakfast radio this morning.}
There should be quite an extended family here, I would think.
I wonder what electorate/s they reside in. Could be quite a number of extra votes here for Rudd and they probably won’t be too shy about trying to get a bit of extra support from their circle of acquaintances either.
All in all, another plus for the Ruddster.
“…and amateurish political analyses”
I would add: with the exception of George Megalogenis, who seems first-rate.
Noocat asked:
You young whippersnapper, Noocat. I don’t know where this “reputable paper” moniker comes from.
The Australian was always a rag. I remember how they crucified Whitlam from 1974 onwards.
They have always been a right-wing mouthpiece.
On the other hand, Hendo’s performance on Lateline was even more disgraceful. His insistence that “nono the polls are inconsistent” calls for a beating with a large bat labelled “margin of error”.
It is a sad day indeed when a citizen of this country feels that he is being pressured and threatened by the Establishment for expressing his political views.
Frankly, for all the abhorance I feel for everything John Howard and his party represent, I have never believed they were capable of intimidation or abuse of power against the individual (except of course in exceptional cases such as Habib, Haneef and Hicks where there was the excuse, if not the justification, of national security issues).
Gusface’s posts have always appeared to me to be rational and considered, albeit like many of us he has expressed his frustration at the goverment and his desire to see it removed from office through the electoral box.
His are not the writings of an unbalance mind.
That people such as Gusface express their fears of retribution, and are silenced as a result, is the greatest tragedy that has befallen our society.
AS I said in an earlier thread, Phone polls are VERY easily rigged if yhou have enough phones programmed to redial the approprioate number repeatedly. Also you can hide your nuber by blocking the Call number display, unless they polling people employ overriding technologies like ISPs did for dialup to stop multiple connections.
Good move by Rudd.
http://www.alp.org.au/media/1007/msccfcsloo230.php
Noocat, I have always found it tragically ironic that The Australian – a paper that spouts “New Right” economic rationalism as its underlying ethos – would be rendered totally insolvent if it were forced to exist in the open market without its much needed heavy subsidies from the parent corporation.
And I agree about its audience, I would suggest that the majority of its readership are University educated people, the bulk of which are increasingly inclined to vote Labor. There might be a few ’sophisticated’ (ie, non redneck) conservatives who may read it, but me thinks the vast majority of conservatives either buy the Tele (or the Hun) or the Financial Review. I speak for myself because I tend to buy the Australian if for no other reason than it tells me what the enemy is thinking.
{Indeed history will look back on the Howard years as the “Wasted Yearsâ€.}
Strangely enough, when I did economics at university a number of years ago now, there were quite a few economics textbooks that had chapters in them similar to this. “The Fraser years, the 7 wasted years”.
Guess who was Treasurer for those 7 years. Generations of economics students will have the dubious pleasure of analysing Howard’s influence on the Australian economy twice.
What a legacy!
RSVP Willam. Thank you.
David Hicks.
Wedge, Whistle, WHOOMPH! as Howard orders, from the bunker, the blowing apart of any cobwebs which may have formed in the minds of the angered over ‘the treatment’, simultaneously bringing the discredited ADF to front of, along with dirty dealings per GWB and the real President.
Didn’t ‘That Poll’ show Howard was slipping on National Security? Wonder why that is?
Another own goal from the Meisterslingers.
I heard a talkback deludette, claiming swinging voter status, saying this morning she had voted agin Howard over the Hicks debacle. But that is now fixed. But was going to vote for Team Far Side this time, to keep the winners on their toes. Wonder what she thinks now.
Probably barracked for Port Power, too. And took a Quinella on Malvidian and Eskimo Queen.
It seems the infamous earwax video was shown on the Today Show, which Rudd was a guest and apparently handled the situation well.
Was talking to a former WA ALP upper housemember who was depressed over seeing the footage, and I assured her that this will have no effect on the vote.
Typical Lib smear job though.
Frank Calabrese Says: @ 254,
The classic one for me Frank, was the one run by the Morning Bulletin at Rockhampton earlier in the year re the Council Amalgamation issue.
They got suspicious about the results of a phone survey they ran and investigated it.
They found that all 880 responses were made on just two mobile phones belonging to two Livingstone Shire Councillors.
Apparently they did a tour of the local pubs and passed the mobiles around all day within the clientele.
A recent poll in the Australian got 100% for my postcode on one question in a 6 question poll.
Anyone, especially journalists who take any notice of these type of polls should have their head examined promptly.
David Hicks. ABC Radio. Ruddock, Dolly. Heads up from the bunker.
“Noocat, I have always found it tragically ironic that The Australian – a paper that spouts “New Right†economic rationalism as its underlying ethos – would be rendered totally insolvent if it were forced to exist in the open market without its much needed heavy subsidies from the parent corporation.”
Good point! But I doubt that this little fact has been considered by those who run The Australian… hypocrisy and double standards are common elements in a lot of their political analyses.
{It seems the infamous earwax video was shown on the Today Show,}
This will probably start a new fad. The Libs should stay as far away from this as possible.
Rudd is “Teflon”, nothing sticks, everything remotely just gathers more support.
The Libs and their media supporters probably won’t be satisfied until all the seats above 20% are in Rudd’s pocket too!
“You young whippersnapper, Noocat. I don’t know where this “reputable paper†moniker comes from.”
Well, you got me there. I was born in 1974, so wouldn’t know about what happened between The Australian and the Whitlam government!
Still, I was reading the paper ten years ago, and it seemed lot better than it does today. Perhaps it has gone from less then reputable to truly woeful???
Anyone who wants to see previous “gusface” posts on the many web sites he has been visiting, can do a quick “windows live search” by highlighting on gusface, and they will be able to visit 1270 posts by him/her.
If any financial or legal assistance is required, gusface, please get someone to advise on this and other sites and I am sure it will be forthcoming in spades.
‘Turnbull denies Exclusive Brethren link
…………A News Ltd newspaper on Tuesday reported the federal police is investigating claims by the sect that an unsigned flyer is being distributed in its name in Mr Turnbull’s Wentworth electorate.’
http://www.smh.com.au/news/National/Turnbull-denies-Exclusive-Brethren-link/2007/10/23/1192941028608.html
sorry… what’s up with gusface?
John Rocket Says:
sorry… what’s up with gusface?
See post number 226!
More Bad News for Howard.
http://www.news.com.au/perthnow/story/0,21598,22636499-5005361,00.html
Scorpio 265
That’s a spooky exercise! How bugged or tracked or transparent are we, then?
Innately suspicious in latter years.
I don’t know what gusface has sopposedly done but here is a sample of his recent posts. No worse than most others. We might all be next.
How desperate have the Libs become. Time to go Howard.
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/?p=582&cp=8
gusface
If you need a hand let me know, I don’t have to care about the future. But I do have 30 years worth of media contacts and Dep Sec contacts in most Depts.
Search my posts my gmail is there.
“sopposedly”, sorry prosperity, supposedly.
ASIO’s software, courtesy of the CIA, probably picks up any reference to “te**ori*t, Haniff, Higgs, etc.
Probably as many Lib posters use these key words at some time or another, so will also be on the watch list.
The country is going to the dogs. I am sure my computer has had a spyware or cookie installed as a number of posts have suddenly disappeared just as I try to submit them.
Keep your spyware up to date, use it often and delete cookies and history often.
Our so-called security services are a joke and make Maxwell Smart look like a genius. They wouldn’t know a t**rio*ist if they fell over one.
A huge round-up of lefty bloggers might be Howard’s rabbit in the hat. lol
Thanks, Scorpio. I was tempted to do a shore to ship at Tampa time, but refrained on grounds of inappropriateness and concern that Gov may be listening. And it turned out, correctly. Did call place other though, which itself was overwhelmed with calls.
Did not prior to the decade, entertain serious suspicion at a personal level.
Things often ‘happen’ with my phone, which is a bothersome mystery.
Far be it from me to disparage a good conspiracy theory, but I’d suggest
the competency of a particular criminal monopoly be the first suspect
in these particular circumstances.
Anyway, onwards and upwards.
1. The Not Leaders Debate.
Smirk knows only how to smirk, shout/pout, or do his gravitas bit. One is nauseating, the other unattractive, the third sonambulistic or conducive to me too ism.
I have seen considerable recent research proving that worms are readily susceptible to hypnosis. Tax and bracket detail? What thrills could be in store!
I suspect He of the Never Never PM will despatch to Labor any wavering innocent who chances by the TV set. Even we are at risk of glazing over, particularly if the debate exceeds ten minutes.
Maybe he could give Milne the nod to pull the feed when it looks grim.
Johnny would be too honourable to do it for him, I expect.
2. Andrew Robb. World Yesterday. Fire in belly? Pain in arse.
Will @145:
Thanks for the heads-up but I’m not going to let the facts get in the way of a good story
Regarding The Oz,
Weren’t they the only paper in the country to support the “Joh for PM” campaign? Or was the Courier Mail involved as well?
Vale gusface
David Marr wrote on the silencing of critics by Howard,
“Since 1996, Howard has cowed his critics, muffled the press, intimidated the ABC, gagged scientists, silenced non-government organisations, neutered Canberra’s mandarins, curtailed parliamentary scrutiny, censored the arts, banned books, criminalised protest and prosecuted whistleblowers.”
http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/careful-he-might-hear-you/2007/06/01/1180205513603.html?page=fullpage
“The Paris watchdog, the Canberra press gallery, the Australian branch of the Commonwealth Press Union and the journalists’ union, the Media Entertainment and Arts Alliance, all concur: the Government is squeezing public debate. As evidence, they most frequently cite four cases:
¡The long pursuit of journalists Gerard McManus and Michael Harvey for refusing to divulge the source of a story which leaves them [as this essay went to press] awaiting sentencing for contempt of court.
¡The chilling effect of bans on reporting contained in federal anti-terrorism laws passed since 11 September 2001, particularly the five-year prison sentences for reporting the detention without trial of suspects and witnesses.
¡Difficulties placed in the way of reporting on refugees and asylum seekers who reach Australia by boat.
¡The failure of freedom of information laws, which the High Court last year confirmed gives federal ministers virtually a free hand to withhold documents from the public. Calls for reform of the FoI laws by the press, NGOs, lawyers’ groups and the Commonwealth Ombudsman have all been ignored.”
A public servant had to go to the High Court to defend his right to voice his opinion on government policy, after the government lost the case Howard prepared legislation to make it an offence for a oublic servant to speak out on ANY government policy.
http://www.aph.gov.au/LIBRARY/pubs/RN/2003-04/04rn31.pdf
There are countless stories of staff being sacked because they stood up for fellow workers or criticised policy of businesses.
There was also the recent story of Aid Watch, a charity that monitored government foreign aid. When it revealed that Howard and co had overstated foregin aid by 25% it had its charitable staus immediatley revoked for getting “political”. No such revocation for the “Exclusive Brethren” or Pell when they get political in supporting Howard’s policies, instead they get $175 million in funding to put more priests in their schools.
Arbie Jay
Stories we know only too well. Howard started early by increasing fees to go to the High Court. I have looked for back up info lately on this, but no luck. Felt anything but relaxed and comfortable at the time.
Crikey
Howard did increase fees for the High Court, said too many frivoulous cases going there.
The Bennet case was about the right to speak out
“directed Mr Bennett to cease talking to the media. When Mr Bennett continued to do so, charges were laid and his salary reduced.”
“refused to allow him to speak to the media about this penalty or the charges.”.
“Mr Bennett complained to HREOC alleging interference with legitimate trade union activities and denial of his right to express opinions on political matters. HREOC declined to investigate”.
Bennet won his High Court case on the “frivolous” matter of a persons right to free speech without fear of prosecution, but Howard has drafted legislation to take away this right.
Given Stevenage’s management as President of the Murdoch University Student Guild in 1991 it is hardly surprising that Filing won as an independent. Heck, iirc he even had to be banned from his own office by the Vice Chancellor.
Re my post # 258 ….drawn to my attention by interested post reader.
Extreme unfortunate typo. At ADF. Meant AFP. Apologies unintended offence, to any.