Hinkler (Qld, Nationals 8.8%): Greg Roberts of The Australian reports that Labor’s candidate for this Bundaberg-based seat, Garry Parr, is suffering a campaigning boycott from members of the Left and Unity (“Old Guard”) factions. Parr is backed by the Labor Forum (AWU) faction, whose chieftain Bill Ludwig has evidently put a few noses out of joint. Former Labor Forum members Brian Courtice, who held the seat from 1987 to 1996, and Greg McMahon, a one-time branch secretary and candidate at the 1998 state election, have said they will not vote for Parr in protest at Ludwig’s “bully boy” approach. Courtice was expelled from the party in 2005 for leaking party documents to state Nationals MP Rob Messenger, which purportedly exposed the “siphoning” of $7,000 in branch funds. At around this time, Courtice’s wife Marcia was sacked from her job with state Bundaberg MP Nita Cunningham, which she claimed to be in revenge for her husband’s actions. Marcia Courtice reportedly had the backing of local branches for the Bundaberg preselection going into the 2006 election, but the party’s union-appointed electoral college instead imposed former nurse Sonja Cleary. McMahon ran against Cleary as an independent, and the seat fell by a narrow margin to Nationals candidate Jack Dempsey, who was assisted by the fallout over the Bundaberg Hospital “Dr Death” scandal.
Blair (Liberal 5.7%): The Courier-Mail reports that the largesse being heaped on this crucial electorate, which covers most of Ipswich and rural areas beyond, is “starting to cause angst in Coalition ranks”. Specifically, Nationals Senator Barnaby Joyce has criticised the decision to spend $2.3 billion on the Goodna bypass as the government’s solution to congestion on the Ipswich Motorway. Blair was also the target of yesterday’s announcement by Mark Vaile of $700 million in Auslink funding for a second crossing of the Toowoomba Range, located in neighbouring Groom.
McEwen (Vic, Liberal 6.4%): The Age reports of yet more marginal seat road funding, this time in Fran Bailey’s traditionally precarious electorate beyond Melbourne’s north-eastern outskirts. Peter Costello appeared in the electorate yesterday announcing $80 million in AusLink funding for road bridges on a yet-to-be-built extension of the Epping rail line to South Morang.
Charlton (NSW, Labor 8.4%): Sitting member Kelly Hoare, who was first dumped by Labor in favour of former ACTU secretary Greg Combet and then humiliated with sexual harrassment claims, is “considering” following Gavan O’Connor’s footsteps and attempting to hold her Hunter Valley seat as an independent. She has until the closure of nominations next Thursday to make up her mind.
Wentworth (NSW, Liberal 2.6%): Danielle Ecuyer, investment banker and environmental activist, has confirmed she will run for Malcolm Turnbull’s seat as an independent. This prospect has attracted considerable attention as she is a former partner of the Labor candidate, George Newhouse.
Maranoa (Qld, Nationals 21.0%): Labor has dumped its candidate for this unwinnable rural Queensland seat, Shane Guley, after his reputation for robust behaviour as a union official emerged as a political liability. This didn’t seem to bother anybody when he ran at the 2004 election, at which time his colourful history was noted on this website.
591 Comments
Lots of sideshow here. As for Wentworth George Newhouse has really cut out for him with his ex being a BITCH trying to spoil his chances. This may mean something & it goes down to the wire on election night or the ‘Rudd slide will sweep all before it.
Patience grasshopper, Patience.
CHARLTON
Mixed feelings on this one. I used to live in this electorate and knew Kelly and her father and predecessor Bob Brown quite well. Her dad was actually personally responsible for persuading me to be affiliated with the Labor side of politics. I always found Kelly very friendly and helpful when I needed her help and I had a lot of respect for her.
I disagreed with Rudd’s decision to strip her of pre-selection, even though I recognize the validity of the arguments for him doing so. I thought it was a particularly unfortunate thing to do to the local Labor Party branches who were still reeling from the unpleasantness of the Bryce Gaudry saga earlier in the year –incidentally her father was one of those expelled from the Labor Party for supporting Gaudry. Nevertheless I have a lot of respect and admiration for Combet and am glad he is entering Parliament.
I’m not sure how well Hoare would poll as an independent. I don’t think she’s been in long enough to have much of a personal vote and I think that the high profile of Combet combined with the popularity of Rudd will probably dilute the potential impact of her candidacy. Nevertheless she may get some votes from people who remember her father and from those still disillusioned over the Gaudry situation in neighboring Newcastle. But I don’t see her posing much of a thread to Combet if she runs.
HINKLER
I can hardly follow the factional problems of the Queensland Labor Party –goodness knows it’s hard enough trying to keep up with the factional issues with the NSW Labor Party –but I expect Paul Neville to retain this seat. Neville has seen off stronger challengers than Parr and the margin is sufficient for him to prevail even in the event of a strong statewide swing. I think Rudd may be in great difficulty in Queensland and this worries me
WENTWORTH
So I guess the question is whether Ecuyer will direct preferences to Turnbull, her ex or someone else or will she not give guidance to her supporters on preferences? I still expect Turnbull to win here
If all goes as expected and Labor is swept to power, many of us would hope Rudd would be brave enough to take on some of these heavies such as Ludwig. What occurred in Hinkler is dreadful, as was his (successful) move earlier to remove Emerson from the front bench.
The Liberals ‘union-boss-control’ type of campaign, mildly echoed (albeit unfairly) in the O’Connor-Corio issue, is about 95% rubbish. Edwards’ snipings of Labcest don’t take into account the (very) gradual changes in pre-selection occurring since Crean’s day. It is improving and will go on doing so with electoral success.
One of the biggest barriers to reform was Kimbo who would never ever rock the boat with the factional heavies, even to the point of sacrificing Barry Jones for the national presidency. Perhaps he was influenced by his brilliant dad’s alienation from the Labor power-brokers of his day.
Re. Wentworth, the SMH today had an article on the ‘ex running and noted that there would at some point be a debate between the two main candidates. BOTLO for a debate between Newhouse and Turnbull. No notice of when that would be though.
Re. the CPI coming out today, the following shows the time it will be out:
“The Australian Bureau of Statistics will release the September quarter core and headline consumer price index (CPI) at 11.30am AEST. “
The Great The Pal and Baked Bean Bonanza of 2007.
Yesderday El Rodente pitched for the Grey Vote with what amounted to an $8 per week pension increase. Word on the bingo circuit says they can’t wait to thank King Kirribilli Coconut come November 24.
The pork for road bridges in McEwen is a wedge.
It’s contingent on the State Labor Government extending the Epping train line into the electorate. This is something the Bracks Government promised to do, but failed to deliver. It will be interesting to see if Labor matches the road bridges pledge – if it does, it’s effectively ordering the State Government to spend more money on the rail line (which is badly needed).
Julie,
RE:- Wentworth
This Saturday at the Paddington Market Church on Oxford Street, there will be a Meet the Candidates Forum starting at 1:00pm.
Perhaps we will have some debate there.
http://www.smh.com.au/news/opinion/a-smarter-vision-for-the-future-not-ruddy-likely/2007/10/23/1192941064156.html
Excellent piece from Ross Gittins. It expresses a lot of the angst about Rudd I’ve had building up over the past few weeks.
I also think the problem he identifies may be core to why the ALP lose, if they should do so. There are actually a surprisingly high number of people out there crying out for more progressive policies. If Rudd ends up too close to Howard people are bound to ask – why the hell should I bother taking a risk?
As a Charlton voter, I would support PD1981 in saying that Kelly Hoare was a very nice person and did a lot for the refugee cause. She was especially good at maintaining a social position on refugees despite the electorate having many socially conservative ALP voters.
That said, depsite a few new lake-side Liberal pockets, this is a dyed-in-the-wool ALP electorate that would vote ALP come hell or high water. I don’t think Kelly will run but if she does her personal standing will not count for much. The new boundaries also take in areas that would never have heard of Kelly and that is where Combet’s office is.
The NSW state election saw an independent win, but he was a VERY popular local mayor and, I believe, if it wasn’t for the appalling behaviour of NSW ALP on many issues he would have been an ALP candidate. Besides, he only just scraped in.
Combet has nothing to fear from Kelly Hoare even if she runs
Misty
I agree with Gittins but he really failed to further explore one of his opening observations – that voters want more but have a feeling that Rudd will give it to them AFTER the election.
Howard is not the only one who can purse his lips and whistle a tune on the dog whistle.
I don’t doubt that the progressives amongst us will be frustrated by a Rudd government but I say bring it on and then let’s debate some real issues with him. The trouble is we have lost the fundamentals of social justice so much under Howard that we can’t even begin to make a dint in the real progressive issues.
Rudd in government and Brown as opposition – now that I would like to see!
{ Environment Minister Malcolm Turnbull says he cannot explain why the prime minister deleted references to his deputy in election material.
“… John Howard deleted references to Treasurer Peter Costello in letters sent to voters in the prime minister’s Bennelong electorate, according to The Australian newspaper….â€}
Malcolm Turnbull pot – kettle – black
As a Wentworth voters, we have received very, very expensive Malcolm Turnbull brochures in the mail,’printed on recycled paper using environmentally-friendly vegetable-based inks’ 210mmx 210mm, 20 pages of glossy (not high-gloss- more soft sheen) pix, Malcolm here; Malcolm there; Malcolm & Family; Malcolm & kids; Malcolm & President Hu signing ’something’; Malcolm Protecting our Icons….
Where is John Howard? Where is Peter Costello ?
Not even a mention, let alone a ‘Happy-Snap’ of either with Malcolm.
Who is funding this mail-out?
Turnbull should make it very clear, there are reports he’s had meetings with The Exclusive Brethren and they are supporting his campaign.
Check out the interested spectator in the last frame of this.
http://www.smh.com.au/multimedia/2007/national/election-2007-dancing-in-bennelong/index.html
William,
You might want to include the Coalition infighting in Barker. The sitting Liberal is saying a vote for the Nats is a vote for Labor, now the Nats candidate is threatening to go to the AEC about it all.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/10/24/2068439.htm
Misty and Kit:
Howard sure has suffocated the debate, so much so that government is about not running anything except a well payed sheltered workshop for pollies. Rudd would frighten the horses if he even suggested that government does have a bigger role to play beyond the much heralded ‘free market’, but I think his ‘education revolution’ is his dog whistle. He’s saying that government must get back into the traditional role of providing services as its part of the social contract, and by hammering away at that, plus backing broadband, he’s flagging a committment to change the way government acts.
Gittins’ argument is that if he intends to follow through on that, then he’s chained himself down to a heavy tree stump with these tax cuts, and it will severely limit his ability to move harder in this direction.
But I get the impression that Rudd has his eye on the long term, and what he’s doing is baiting the electoral hook without rocking the boat, but intends to sail off in future years to new waters. My fear is that he may have weighed down the boat with too much of Howard’s ballast.
Misty… so what you’re saying is… people want more progressive policies… they’re not getting it from Rudd, so they’ll vote for Howard to get it?
There are other options of course, vote minor party in the Senate and choose which of the two major parties will most likely be less abhorent to you in the House. If you are concerned about Labor’s stated intentions in reference to ‘progressive policy’, think the Liberal Party offer a better deal and better economics then go ahead and vote for them.
I don’t believe that… but to each their own. The most important thing where Labor is concerned is that they’ll have nothing to offer if they’re not in Government. They can have all the best intentions in the world when they’re in Opposition and it won’t make a difference.
LTEP – I’d never vote for the Coalition on that basis myself. I’m willing to believe just about anyone is better than Howard and Co. However I did note a lot of comments from members of the gay community along those lines yesterday.
There are plenty of voters out there that don’t have a strong affiliation to either party, but do feel that a more progressive government is in order after far too long of Mr 1950s. Such people may get turned off Rudd if he fails to differentiate himself sufficiently from John Howard – particularly in terms of social policy.
Personally I am increasingly frustrated by Rudd’s conservatism. As Gittens alludes to there are many of us out there desperately hoping that once the election is won Rudd will suddenly transform from a conservative grubb into a socialist butterfly. Clearly we are deluding ourselves.
Just saw this one from Hockey:
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22638994-5013945,00.html
Hockey is complainging that YRAW have sent letters to newspapers as part of a concerted campaign – unforgiveable surely!!
Surprisingly well balanced article given the source.
Jason Wood in La Trobe has an ad in the local rag but there is no mention of the Liberal party. Why are these sitting members so ashamed?
Steve #12
It’s her Grandad!!
Misty – Rudd’s singular aim is to win the election and mimicking Howard is the way he has chosen. Once in government, Labor will be a lot more progressive than they appear to be now.
PD1981 says “I disagreed with Rudd’s decision to strip her [Hoare] of pre-selection, even though I recognize the validity of the arguments for him doing so.” The Charlton preselection had nothing to do with Rudd, although no doubt he approved. Combet indicated he wanted a seat and the NSW Labor Party found him one. Hoare was a useless, lazy, low-grade hack who would never have been elected to Woop Woop council without her father being an MP. People can’t go on about nepotism and hackery in the Labor Party and then complain when something is done about it. Combet is a first-class talent and will be a Labor minister fairly soon. If Hoare runs she’ll be lucky to get 10%.
Alex – But that is precisely Gittens’s point. Perhaps we are all deceiving ourselves when we believe that.
And even if Rudd is significantly more progressive than he is letting on he may be so constrained by his current me-tooism once he gets into office that he will have little room to act in that manner.
Gittens:
“Rudd talks about his grand plans but, in reality, he keeps closing off his options, lumbering himself with commitments to keep pursuing Howard’s policies.
Which goes to show that Howard really is the cleverest politician of his generation. Even if he loses this election he will have dictated the bulk of his opponents’ policies for at least their first term.”
I’m gay and whilst gay marriage would be welcomed by me, the political reality cannot be ignored. Labor in my opinion is right to tread carefully. I think its obvious enough that complete reform to supperannuation, taxation, and the many other federal laws that discriminate against gay and lesbian couples is overdue, and will not cause any murmurs in the community. I for one believe an incremental reform process will be the most successful, in spite of what I would like in an ideal world. If you move too fast, you give the zealots too much ammo !
Misty, I am a member of the ‘gay community’ (whatever that is) and don’t imagine that Rudd will be some ’socialist butterfly’ nor do I want it. Rudd is there to put Labor in a position for them to govern for all of us. If we look at the record of Labor governments on a state level, they are undeniably better with same sex issues than the Coalition is.
We even had the Coalition use their territories power to overrule the ACT’s civil unions Bill, which is clearly unacceptable. Note that Labor did not support this action (nor did ACT senator, Gary Humphries).
In all elections we need to look at the sum total of a party’s actions and decide which of the two majors will receive our preference, which party is closest to what we believe. Also remember that we have a more representative Senate which can look after our interests and put the pressure on the majors to deliver.
To me, for left people to whinge and whine about Rudd not being left enough is to ignore the undeniable fact that no matter what he is, the Labor Party will always be at least marginally better than the modern Liberal Party. Think back at the actions of this government and ask yourself… would Labor have done that?
To me, it’s clear there’s a very big difference between the two major parties and I can never understand people that state otherwise.
Thanks steve @ 12 for the clip. She can move!
I watched with some horror a gay debate at a state labor conference. Rudd’s position is not just a match of Howard’s it reflects a large piece of the labor vote on the floor of the conference.
I think for those personally affected just think a little bit about which of the two parties is most likely to use you for a deliberate wedge regardless of the damage it will do to you and which is most likely to have a reasonably open debate and perhaps even, in time so some leadership in a progressive direction so that the community comes with us.
I strongly disagree with Alex’s ‘once in Government’ will be different, that is just using a Howard wedge, but the pressures and directions on a Labor government will be in the right direction and over time progress will be made.
Lets be honest on many of these issues Howard has been driving in the opposite direction not just for philosophical reasons but for political gain from the Hanson mob. I don’t think progressives, as disappointed as they might be, can look to Howard as a progressive alternative.
Finally interesting that Howard is trying to make EVERY WEEK about the tax policy. Either it confirms some of the ‘they have nothing else’ theories of those much wiser and furrier than me, or they are getting some numbers back that indicate it has some traction.
Speaking as a gay man I entirely approve Rudd’s decision not to be wedged by Howard on this issue. Most gay and lesbian people don’t want to get married in any case – they want the removal of discrimination in their everyday lives, and that’s Labor policy. The gay rights movement, if it still exists, should be pushing for civil union legislation in the states.
I hope Rudd keeps up his “mimic Howard” strategy – but not in the way you think.
After running in 96 as not Keating, Howard proceeded to make a case for and win an election on a policy he believed in in 99.
I don’t look for too much socially progressive policy in a first term Rudd government – but he’ll come out of his shell a little in future campaigns, I believe. The current environment is so toxic to progressive ideas he needs to spend a few years altering the social enverinoment before anyone can make big changes.
@18 red wombat Says:
Here at outer western edge of Parramatta we have received only one item of unaddressed election material from the Liberal Party. (This contrasts markedly from the flood of materials we received from the Liberals when we were on the outer south-eastern edge of Greenway last time when barely a day went past without something from them.)
It is threefold A4 full colour pamphlet with a picture of some sky and clouds on the front page. On the inside there is one small muddy picture of Costard and Howello glaring at each other.
There is but one mention of the local candidate’s name.
I think the Libs have given up in Parramatta.
Postum Posted Thoughtum
Rudd’s people should be ready if Howard brings up the tax thing again to run an add (perhaps even on TV not just on the web) saying that for 11 long years Howard and Costello think that all they need to do is tax a lot, put the money away and then later give tax cuts. Then call this reform. It is not reform it is massive taxation followed by a tiny bit of relief.
There is more to Government than just tax and tax cuts, Government needs to care for peoples lives and budgets etc. Mr Howard wants this campaign to be about tax cuts in 5 years time because that is all he has, vote for Rudd who’ll do the tax as well as governing for ordinary Australians.
I’m to wordy and unpolished but surely you get the idea. If howard is arguing about the size of tax cuts in 5 years time it means he has nothing and should be rejected.
Talking of pork-barrelling roads in the marginals …
Govt denies roads money is a slush fund
The federal government has denied it will use a giant $22 billion transport fund to pork barrel itself back into power.
Labor and lobby groups have raised concerns that Auslink II, worth $22.3 billion and starting in 2009-10, will be used to target marginal coalition electorates in the lead-up to the election expected later this year.
http://au.news.yahoo.com/070510/2/13eps.html
10 May 2007
Many people have mentioned the candidates not mentioning they’re part of the Liberal Party.
This is indeed the tactic for the Liberal Party this election. I remember reading an article a week or so ago saying the Liberal Party campaign team plans to run a national campaign and ‘local campaigns’ focusing on ‘issues that count’ for the electorate, including graffiti, hoons, crime etc. They probably hope to scrounge up enough votes on both campaigns to get across the line in a majority of seats.
I’ve actually been startled by the wastefulness of the Liberal Party campaign so far. The number of glossy brochures I’ve received (I live in Eden Monaro) just seems wrong. They look like they’ve gone all out with the PR firms this election, the yellow and blue motif must certainly be an effort to give themselves a softer image.
In contrast, the Labor campaign seems quite penny pinching. I’ve only received one or two small and cheap looking pamphlets from Mike Kelly. I’m seeing no evidence the Liberal Party is being outspent… quite the opposite.
Adam: I’m with you on that. I support the removal of discrimination in the areas of tax, super, health and many other areas, but I don’t support gay marriage. In fact I don’t know any of my friends who support it.
The ALP hasn’t really started spending yet…. There’s still 4 weeks to go!
I should quantify, when I say I support gay marriage, what I really mean is I support a scheme along the lines of UK civil partnerships, which work very well. In fact I agree with them so much, I have one with my partner.
Matthew: I support civil unions, because the government already recognises gay relationships as de facto relationships when it comes to things like First Home Buyers Grant, the dole and other things where the government gives money away. When it comes to real issues on taxation, super and that we have laws that blatantly discriminates.
Misty – I agree with Rates Analyst, progressive is a dirty word in the present environment. Labor progressives, I think, are savvy enough to assess Rudd as a closet progressive and to trust him to introduce softer polices over time as he settles into the job. Gittins is taking a simplistic line on the Rudd strategy.
LTEP – reports for many months said that Labor are cashed up for this campaign. I think the last two weeks will see heavy spending on adverts.
This is going to be on long and boring campaign (as an ALP voter, I hope so) – the polls are not moving anywhere, and it certainly looks like people made up their minds months ago. It’s fast reaching the point where I would be surprised if Labor gets a majority below 20 seats (though I would of course settle for a majority of one). The law of political inertia suggests that polling numbers will remain essentially the same until an external force acts upon them, and time is running out for that event to happen. In essence, all the Coalition can do now is to hope for a miracle.
As for the Gittins theory on a Rudd government – he raises a valid point, though I suspect that he should stick to economic, rather than political, analysis. I’ve got no doubt that Rudd PM will be a fairly conservative Labor leader, and that he will consistently disappoint those of us on the Left. However, a Labor government will be far more likely to introduce policy that we Lefties will be happy with.
Personally I think Gittins’ argument that Rudd has hamstrung his future government because he’s committed to various Howard policies is to overlook that government coffers are over-flowing at the moment. This may prove to be an excellent election to win simply because of all the money floating around – that rare election where the jibe “where’s the money coming from?” has no salience. So it may not matter that Rudd is copying several Howard policies, as there will be plenty of money to fund Labor priorities.
Will, a first hand example of gay discrimination in federal law is buying a house in joint ownership (joint tenants), if your same-sex partner is from overseas. My partner is english, and moved to australia with me after I had been living in the uk for 5 years. He obtained a interdependency visa granted by DIMIA, as it was called then.
We then went to buy a house in Adelaide, but what we didn’t realise is you need approval to buy a house if the partner of the australian citizen is from overseas, AND a same-sex partner.
In this situation, we had to apply to the Foreign Investment Review Board, JUST to get permission to buy a house jointly.
The stupidity is, if I had been on holiday in the Ivory Coast, brought back a woman, we could have bought a house together instantly, with no approval required.
Simon Jackman’s latest update.
http://jackman.stanford.edu/oz/Aggregate2007/bettingmarkets/index.php
There’s no point in having a progressive Labor party if it languishes in opposition. As far as I’m concerned, Rudd can say and do pretty much whatever he wants to get elected, so long as he remains to the left of Howard (not difficult).
For me, and many other people in Australia I suspect, there is one simple goal at this election: get Howard out of power. This involves taking more ground in the centre, and those of us who would like to see more progressive policies at this election are going to have to cop it.
Remember: one step at a time. Howard has dragged Australia to the right, and it will take a few years for the pendulum to swing back in the other direction.
I was in the seat of Bendigo last weekend, which the Libs could take from Labor with just a one per cent swing. I saw some Liberal posters on one building, saw no Labor posters, and friends of mine in the electorate say they’ve seen little in the mail.
Water/drought is a huge issue in this seat. There are votes waiting to be won and lost on this.
I find it just amazing that it’s just assumed that Labor will hold the seat easily, and the Libs aren’t making a big fight for it. Their private polling must really be showing a huge swing to Labor just about everywhere.
More National Party pork for the FNQ
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/news/queensland/coalition-promises-10m-upgrade-for-fnq-road/2007/10/24/1192941106355.html
“I’ve got no doubt that Rudd PM will be a fairly conservative Labor leader, and that he will consistently disappoint those of us on the Left. However, a Labor government will be far more likely to introduce policy that we Lefties will be happy with.”
Indeed. I’m finding Rudd increasingly disappointing in his rhetoric and until such time as he proves that he is as prepared as Howard to simply ignore his own past statements I have to assume that when he says he’s conservative he means it.
But – even if he proves to be personally a reincarnation of John Howard himself, we have to remember that despite the appearance of the campaign, we are not running a presidential election here. Howard has Abbott, Downer, Minchin, even at one point people like Ross Lightfoot pressuring him to move even further right. Rudd will have Gillard, Shorten, etc, and once Labor is in power, those forces will have the opportunity to open up much more rhetorical space to pull him to the left. One has to assume that Rudd has at least some sympathies in that direction or he wouldn’t have joined the party he leads in the first place.
From a progressive point of view it’s no contest. One can’t let the perfect be the enemy of the good (especially when one can vote Green and then give Labor the next preference.)
Investment Bankers and Commercial Lawyers aplenty in the Wentworth field.
At last they are contributing to society…
If a government with Kevin Rudd as PM fails it won’t have anything to do with John Howard. Despite Ross Gittens foreseeing his dead hand steering the country from his political grave, I think that on the contrary he will fade from history very quickly.
Any failings will be the responsibility of Labor completely. The next two turns have to see a substantial improvement in indigenous health, education and employment. Australia’s education system modeling Finland and not the USA. Tackling cost challenges in health. Building infrastructure. China will have more to do whether these gaols come to fruition than the grisly claws of the ghost of John Winston Howard.
Steve @ 44
I find it amusing the story has these two quotes from Mark Vaile:
“This is something that everyone here and right up the coast has been arguing for for years,” Mr Vaile told reporters today.”
and
“I don’t need to remind you of the importance and significance of this seat in our effort to win this election on the 24th of November,” Mr Vaile said.
One guess as to which of these quote represents the real reason for the road upgrade. Seriously… does anyone think… wow they’re upgrading this road… I’m going to vote for them now!
I totally agree with Ashley – 42. The name of the game is get rid of Howard. Everything else is secondary.
Labor will be dysfunctional because it doesnt know what it believes in anymore and its base is comprised of contradictory components – hence JWH’s penchant for wedges.
It will be interesting if Labor sees this election as an endorsement of it or a repudiation of JWH. eg do people endorse re-regulation of the Labor market or do they just not like WorkChoices.
I disagree Hugo it could be a good one to lose – every resources boom has ended in tears and it seems this one is going to do the same, I doubt rates need to go up more than 1% before there is real tears and pain in the Australian economy. Labor may just inherit as things go pear shaped in 2 years time.
If that is the case I see Labor being out within 5 years (assuming they have a double dissolution in the first term and the Libs dont self-destruct which is entirely possible)
Matthew – just a quick, completely off-topic question! But how long did it take for your partner to get the visa to _stay_ in Australia?
Must say i am impressed by the common sense opinions of those in the ‘gay community’ about the same-sex marraige issue. Let me tell you, as a het, marriage is a crock of s*** best avoided!Civil unions are a much more sensible approach.
Rudd may or may not turn out to be a conservative Labor leader, all of them have been (including Whitlam), progressive policies will come if the commmunity wants them, at least with a Rudd government there is the likelehood that it will respond to the community. Howard’s government has been oligarchic from the start.
Now is not the time to scare the horses with any new ‘progressive’ policy statement – it is just what the Liberals want.
ESJ at number 50 – one of the most insightful things I’ve read of yours.
Let’s not forget that the poor ALP finally won a federal election in October 1927. Just in time for the crash. I think the crash is a little further away this time though – and still far enough that it can be averted (or at least diluted) if Rudd implements some of the rhetorical ideas he’s putting forward now.
Yes Persse (47), I agree that Howard’s legacy may well fade quite quickly. When we look back on the Howard era in, say, 2020, there will be very little that we will be able to point to as a concrete, long-lasting achievement. There’ll be the GST of course, and large dollops of middle class welfare to clean up (which will be hard when the time comes), but, really, JWH doesn’t have much to show for such a record-breaking term. Compare that to the Labor governments of 1983-96. We are still enjoying the pay-off from the economic heavy lifting that Hawke and Keating did, not to mention Medicare and compulsory super.
But then, if you run a government whose sole purpose is to get re-elected, I guess you can’t expect to leave much in the way of legacy.
ESJ (50) – there are never “good elections to lose”. The economy may head south in the next few years, or it may continue to boom for another 5-10 years (China and India are still expanding rapidly). Whether or not an election is good to lose can only be seen in retrospect. Anyone who claims that they can accurately pick the future is a charlatan.
Indeed, a plausible argument can be made that Labor policies (with its emphasis on education & training, as well as on infrastructure renewal) will actually prolong the boom.
On Ross Gittins’ piece, something really needs to be done about investment in human capacity i.e. educating people in areas of skills shortages. In the 2004 election, even that bunch of rabid socialists, the Business Council of Australia, called for more training of engineers and technicians to fill a looming shortage. Nothing has been done. Now 3 years later and the shortage is here in a large way. We have all sorts of infrastructure needs, and some solutions funded, but there aren’t enough skilled people left to design and build them. This is where a history of inadequate spending in both education and infrastructure really intersect. History has proven that the market will not fix either problem. Policy intervention is needed.
As a suggestion to any Labor policy people present, can we please see more spending on maths education in high schools and engineering at universities? Engineering is a long and expensive course to run and we can hardly blame cash-strapped universities for not offering more places. Even if they did it is debateble if we are producing enough good advanced maths students from high school to fill them. We need something like the funded places scheme for rural doctors. I don’t think Rudd would be accused of being a spend-a-holic socialist if he put a bit more money into science and engineering education at tertiary level.
There’s little doubt that Kevin Rudd is indeed genuinely conservative as is the majority of Australians.
Those who care deeply about the environment comprise but 10% of the electorate and another twenty or thirty per cent care about it to some exent.
There are those of us who would like rapid and radical action to save the planet but we are in a minority.
We are in desperate need of progressive policies in a number of areas but this is not supported by the bulk of Australians.
For any progress to be made at all on the issues that concern us we need to remove the ultra-conservative Howard government.
It is way past its use-by date and mired in the 20th century.
I am happy for a more progressive conservative government to replace an entirely non-progressive conservative government.
There is a number of progressive shadow ministers who will push their agenda when in government.
They may or may not succeed but they will certainly be an advance on the current out-dated mob.
It’s a truism to say that Kevin Rudd, if elected, has to govern for all Australians, the majority of whom are conservative.
So, don’t despair progressives. We will be better off under a Kevin Rudd government but not as well off as under a genuinely progressive government which probably would not be elected.
Voting Greens in the Senate will help however.
This election will produce a minimum of two – maybe three- terms for Labor. They will have a mandate to nation build. There will be a unique opportunity to build a partnership with the States. The political reality is that the Liberals and the Nationals will start to implode. The NSW right will do its thing. Up here in Queensland the Liberals will be reduced to irrelevancy. In Victoria – the spiritual home of the Libs – the Costello forces will be out for retribution. It will be like the Sunnis and Sheeites. That will be Howards legacy.
Hugo I said “could be”. Of course every new government is a clean slate and the past is another country.
If Labor wins which seems increasingly likely, then it gets a clean slate and makes its own luck and story. I recall a remark of Bob Carr’s as to why he didnt reform NSW along the lines that he never had a mandate to do so. IMO , KR in winning will be constrained in that he has adopted much of the agenda of JWH, I think it would be a brave call to move away from that especially for a party as risk adverse as Labor.
As you correctly point out much of the middle class welfare put in place is now extraordinarily difficult to remove – to name 3 – private health insurance rebate, free super (oxymoron), CGT discount as they all have powerful supporting constituencies.
So all in all I think we violently agree.
ESJ, how long after the recession did it take for the ALP to lose government in 1996?
Would you say they lost government merely due to economic management?
Oppositions don’t win elctions, Governments lose them. Rudd’s job right now is to sit quietly, smile patiently, and every now and then give Howard a gentle push towards the precipice.
I think Rudd in Government will be much more his own man than Kimbo (whom I greatly admire) could ever have been. He will probably “progress”more rapidly than, say Adam would like, but more slowly than say LTEP would wish.
Instead of us all sitting on this blog, muttering over the entrails (I hope) of the Libs, we should all be doing a bit to set a climate where “battlers” will find $10 per week into social insurance, like Health, education, IR, is better than in the hip pocket! And the best help we can have is a Government which is doing it!
I am also one of those who hope that Rudd will prove to be more progressive once in office. I completely accept that he has to play the game now in order not to be wedged – it’s a product of Howard’s politics, not necessarily Rudd’s.
But of course, if Rudd does end up overly conservative, then I will be amongst the first to start protesting.
On gay marriage, I don’t care too much for it. I am gay myself, but have no interest in trying to have a pretend heterosexual lifestyle to that extent. I do, however, believe strongly in the need for civil unions, just as do the UK, Canada, New Zealand, some states in the U.S., and many countries in Europe. They enable full equality in the eyes of the law and society in terms of the recognition of a committed relationship. Australia, once again, has fallen far behind the rest of the Western world on this one.
So, I hope that something akin to civil unions will arrive here. It will never happen through the Liberal Party, at least in its current state, due to it being hijacked by the the religious Right, but Labor gives hope at least.
At any rate, let’s judge Rudd once he is PM. For now, it is all election campaign game-playing.
LTEP 60,
In my view what this election seems to be showing is:
a) Aust Govts have a natural shelf life of about 7 years.
b) To extend the shelf life beyond that needs a poor opposition/ poor opposition policies/ good luck
c) As it goes longer beyond 7 years it gets increasingly harder to get re-elected
d) Unpopular government policies or actions can add to the resentment, eg the recession under Keating and WorkChoices under Howard.
(e) the opposition has to be seen as a “safe ” bet
Therefore Labor was in trouble from 1990 onwards but factor (b) helped it in 1990 and 1993. Factor (c) and (d) and (e) sunk it in 1996.
In Liberal’s case, it really was in trouble from 2001 onwards but (b) and (c) saved it in 2001 and 2004. In 2006 it still has (b) in terms of a poor opposition but Rudd personally makes (e) count against it and (c) (d) are also working against it.
LOL. I heard this a number of times before and in the aftermath of the 2004 election too. The truth is, the world economy and markets are unpredictable enough that now is as good as any other time for getting into power.
ESJ (59), I suspect that we are in agreement (violently or otherwise) on the matter on Rudd’s “mandate”. Comparisons have been made with the incoming Blair government in 1997, another Centre-Left party that ended up having to run on a conservative platform in order to get elected, a platform which greatly constrained the freedom of movement of Blair government during their first term.
However, Rudd has left himself a bit of wriggle room, especially if tax receipts continue to pour in. Assuming that he gets at least 3 terms (which he will do if he doesn’t stuff things up), that is more than enough time to craft a new centre-left, progressive paradigm for the 2010s.
Count down to CPI figures at 11.30…. RatesAnalyst surely you will be first to post them? =-)
Yes ESJ that seems very sensible and I agree with all of it. Personally, I can’t see all the fuss about Rudd but obviously other people can.
I think the Coalition was luck in ‘01 and outplayed Labor in ‘04. I suspect they will outplay Labor again in ‘07 but we’ll see.
I think the people at The Oz want the inflation figure to be high so on election day their headline can be “Inflation Dooms Howard”.
“Voting Greens in the Senate will help however.”
Couldn’t agree more. The Greens NEED to have the balance of power. This country actually has a lot of progressive-minded people in it, but who often lack any voice. A good showing of Greens in the senate would act as the perfect counterbalance to conservative tendencies of a Labor government.
I suspect Rudds already comprehensively outplayed Howard, LTEP. My view is that its already too late for Team Rodent.
Having said that, you gotta give to Rodent – he wants it, and wont lie down. The pensioners move is clever, worth a point or so.
Andrew @ 45: Bill Shorten pulling Rudd to the left? Err… Sure, Gillard, Combet, even Tanner (except on some Shorten-esque economic issues) may, but Shorten’s pretty freakin’ conservative. He’s one of those who’s in the Right faction because he’s actually (comparatively) right wing. So hopefully the others will have the same effect Garrett has had.
Oops.
John Rocket @ 51:
From applying for the interdependency visa to receiving it was fairly quick actually, probably no more than 2 months. Might even have been a bit less. However, we did make use of a migration agent, which certainly streamlined the process. The crucial thing to receive the interdependency visa is having lived together for at least 12 months prior to applying. You need to present evidence you have joint bank accounts, bills, living arrangements etc.,For example, living together at somebody else’s house is not acceptable. Have to show you are mutually dependent. Then there is a second stage to the application 2 years after arrival in Australia.
Howard’s cheer squad is getting really desperate now. Following Newspoll, the Herald Sun in Melbourne has renewed its attempts to try and smear Julia Gillard, saying she hasn’t been fully honest about her past connections.
We know of course how completely honest John Howard has been about everything over the last eleven years don’t we? Hypocrytes!
2 minutes to go…
Howard finally acts on the skills shortage! The only catch is that you have to join the war against terror…
“Prime Minister John Howard has unveiled a $208 million package to boost skills in the Australian Defence Force (ADF).
The plan includes two new ADF technical colleges, one in Adelaide and one in Queensland, and more than 2,000 skills scholarship for traineeships, cadetships and work experience.
There will also be 700 new higher education and vocational education training places for students who want to work in the defence sector.”
Gay marriage has come up as an attempted wedge – thankfully Rudd hasn’t fallen for it.
I agree with Andrew @ 45 – hopefully there will be enough lefties in Cabinet to temper any overly right-wing initiatives of those more conservative members of the Government, including the PM.
I am happy for Rudd to continue to play it safe and cool. Just get into Government, guys. We can deal with the rest later.
0.7%
Damn.
cpi 0.7 ergo no interest rate rise
D’oh.
Well, at least there won’t be any excuses for Howard when he loses.
Weighted mean 1.1%
CPI 0.7%
Yeah, that’s quick. For my wife and I – it took about 18 months (and that was with the bills and proof of co-habitation!) for a spouse visa, although we didn’t use a migration agent, I don’t think it would’ve improved matters. A lot depends on the country your spouse/partner is coming from… I really got to hate dimia.
Yep – likely no rate rise, as I’ve been saying…
Labor will win with or without an interest rate rise. I don’t really understand this wishing for pain and bankruptcies in the electorate just so as Rudd can get an even bigger majority.
Paul K — we’re told an interest rate rise is almost certainly coming in the next 6 months. I’d rather Howard copped it now.
Hang on folks. it’s not that simple. They’re still discussing the underlying measures and thay don’t look so flash.
A talking head right now is confidently predicting an interest rate rise.
Weird one….. Headline is 0.7 but all the underlying measures are .9 or so.
Seem so me that there’s a big but volatile component (petrol maybe?) that has decreased in price that drags down the overall measure for Headline inflation. But the underlying measures (which are what the RBA focuses on) exclude volatile items and so the movement in that volatitle compenent is excluded.
The market sold-off, indicating that overall, the market thinks a rise in Nov is now more likely. Percentage chance rose from 50% to 80%
No, I’m happy there’ll be no interest rate rise. Don’t want to scare or panic people into voting Howard. I’m surprised the Coalition hasn’t made more use of the ‘if you think it’s bad now… which it is… how much worse could it get under Labor’.
Yes, they’ve been trying but sorta half-heartedly. Don’t want to give the everyperson any real pain to acccompany that message.
Sorry I was late guys – duty called….
Chinster
Problem is that Labor have basically blown all their finances sticking to the basic Howard agenda. Fiscally he’s basically neutered himself for his first couple of terms.
Dissappointing interest rate figure. I’m hocked up to my eyeballs but was happy to part with the cash in the national interest.
A rate hike is now the distinct favourite. David Spears is describing it as a “shocker for the government”.
RBA more influenced by underlying figure. nov 7 could still be on.
Ashley,
I understand the tactics but how can you say you’re any better than some of the right wing nutters if you don’t put the concerns of the Australain people ahead of your politics. Have you learnt anything from years of Opposition other than doing what is politcially expedient.
Doesnt that mean under the Sawford formula JWH wins?
Sure I heard 1.9 on News Radio
Rates Analyst… your first duty is to this blog, you should know that.
Don’t be too sure on no rate rise guys.
The RBA Trimmed Mean and Weighted Median are both above economist expectations at 2.9% and 3.1% respectively and both 30 day and 3 year rates are up after the release.
It’ll take some fortitude for the RBA to increase, but they’ve talked the talk to date.
JWH is still on the road to a drubbing.
According to the ABS it was a decrease in child care costs due to the government making more people eligible for rebates.
If you take that out it would’ve been closer to 1%.
The Sawford formula is for suckers.
It doesnt matter. I think Rudd basically scuttled the any lib interest rate scare campaign with his reference to the 22% under Howard in the early 80s. The little guy was blushing when that came up – didn’t here a word of it in that lame 2004 Labor campaign…
Paul K there you go again with the nasty democrat shtick! Whose getting the party assets up in QLD?
I think people worried about Rudd being too conservative probably realise it may be for the sake of the election just as Howard acts like a human during election times.
One ought not be concerned about Rudd delivering more traditional type labor policy given the people he has around him. There are not too many yes men in the ALP camp and some pretty good talent laying around.
.
.
Sorry Edward, but I have no idea what you’re talking about. I don’t belong to any party and I’m not from Quessnsland.
FINALLY a Labor leader mentioned Howard’s disasterous role as treasurer…
It makes you wonder what Labor HQ was doing 1998 – 2004.
0.9% means a rate rise on RBA preferred figures.
They must act and they will
Seems like childcare costs decreased significantly and that was what saved the figures from being worse.
Rate rise alarm:
http://www.smh.com.au/news/business/rate-rise-alarm/2007/10/24/1192941112670.html
Rate rise now very probable. Trimmed mean rose 1% for the quarter and 3.1% for the year. This is the number the RBA considers most.
http://www.smh.com.au/news/business/rate-rise-alarm/2007/10/24/1192941112670.html
from smh online
Consumer Price index figures released this morning show headline inflation rose by 0.7 per cent in the September quarter for an annula rate of 1.9 per cent. But the underlying inflation rate rose by 1 per cent which is almost certain to trigger a interest rate rise on November 7.
Paul K
Labor’s whole approach has been about political expediency. Why stop now. I was happy to wear the rate rise in the national interest – think of it as an extra 20 dollars a week to purchase some truth and integrity in govt. Well worth it.
Sorry that should have been “Weighted mean”
They’re defintiely going to go in Nov in my view.
The 0.7 is because of the Child care tax rebate taking 0.2 off the headline figure.
Add that back in and you get 0.9 – hence the CPI is well above 3% pa (0.9 is one quarter) and so the RBA will move.
ABS what increased and decreased.
http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/mf/6401.0?OpenDocument
You are a democrat Paul K you have previously been identified as such on this blog. My inquiry was what was going to happen to the party assets after it went under on Nov 24?
Surely you are in the know?
I agree with Rates – the RBA has to look ahead, there are big pressures in the economy, with Christmas splurge to come.
I predict no rates rise.
There seems to be a lot of confusion on what the actual number is. The ABC think it is 1.9%
http://abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/10/24/2068774.htm?section=justin
Everything is higher than the RBA forcast – excpet the headline which was artificially depressed by the Chold Care Tax Rebate.
The CPI measures costs to the consumer – so if the Government steps in a pays (i.e Child-Care) that means the headline cost to the consumer is lower – but it doesn’t mean inflation is lower.
Everything is higher than the RBA wants – rate rise Nov 7.
“You are a democrat Paul K you have previously been identified as such ”
Edward,
News to me. Who identified me? I think you’ve got me mixed up with someone else. Not that I really care.
Gang, the headline CPI rate is 0.7%. This makes the sep to sep annualised figure 1.9%. HOWEVER! The ABS summary includes the interesting observation that 0.2 percentage points came off the headline rate because of changes in child care tax rebate and child care benefit – i.e., policy changes that brought these things in scope of the CPI measure. The other contributions to the lower than expected figure came off stuff exposed to trade (fuel, computes and stuff like that) which comes down presumably because of the Aussie$ climbing way uphere. So if you you were toditch the child care stuff (amybe they did it with this in mind?) then the rate would have been — 0.9%. Which presumably the RBA would know … extract from ABS summary below:
OVERVIEW OF CPI MOVEMENTS
Significant contributors to the increase this quarter were fruit (+9.6%), vegetables (+7.9%), deposit and loan facilities (+2.2%), rents (+1.6%), other financial services (+2.3%), house purchase (+1.0%), electricity (+4.3%), overseas holiday travel and accommodation (+4.2%), property rates and charges (+4.5%), water and sewerage (+5.5%), domestic holiday travel and accommodation (+1.8%) and other motoring charges (+2.6%).
The most significant offsetting price falls this quarter were for child care (-33.4%), automotive fuel (-3.7%), pharmaceuticals (-4.5%), audio, visual and computing equipment (-2.5%) and furniture (-1.5%).
The large fall in child care this quarter has resulted from a change in the eligibility criteria for the Child Care Tax Rebate (CCTR) that has brought it in-scope of the CPI this quarter and from the additional 10% indexation of the Child Care Benefit (CCB) rates on top of the usual annual CPI indexation. The fall in child care reduced the September quarter CPI increase by -0.2 percentage points (-0.29 index points).
If the RBA lifts rates it will cost Howard all those seats he holds in the outer suburbs in Brisbane, Sydney and Melbourne. It will cost him in every other seat – the issue won’t be the rate rise itself, but “trust”. Glen Stevens will call it on economics, not politics. He won’t stop work during an election campaign.
The Australian headline………
Prices jump, rate rise coming
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22640212-12377,00.html
There are about 6 different figures:
Courtesy of Bloomberg:
Headline Rates:
Headline CPI QoQ 0.7
Headline CPI YoY 1.9
Underlying Rates (these are the more important):
Trimmed Mean QoQ 0.9
Trimmed Mean YoY 2.9
Weighted Median QoQ 1.0
Weighted Median YoY 3.1
The underlying measures are showing that inflation is above the target band. The RBA will raise rates on Nov 7.
{The headline should have about 0.2 added to it for the effect of the Chiild Care Tax Rebate.}
Just looking at detailed figures on ABS site – household contents went down 2.4, probably due to cheaper imports, transport went down .6, cheaper petrol. None of this will satisfy RBA – .25 on & Nov. (disclosure – just sold my house, money in bank at 6.6% awaiting downturn in house prices, renting for a while)
Ok eggheads. Stop confusing me. Will the RBA be paying attention to the 0.7 headline or this underlying 1.0? If 1.0 that pushes them over 3% and they have no choice but to move, right?
These predictions of a rate rise are all HUBRIS!!!!
Akekekeke
Alex at 125
Cheaper imports are becuase of the higher AUD….
RBA will be interested in this.
http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/Latestproducts/6401.0Main%20Features4Sep%202007?opendocument&tabname=Summary&prodno=6401.0&issue=Sep%202007&num=&view=
Even if no rate rise happens, it will be enough for the RBA to use wording in its release on Nov 5 that there will be future rises in the short term. That will be enough for Labor to jump on it and scare the voters about Howard’s so called promise.
A rate rise, will do lots of damage for the governments reputation. No rise but strong wording from the RBA will be enough to scare the mortgage belt anyway.
Re 126
RBA WILL ALMOST DEFINITELY RAISE RATES
some creative accounting going on makes the headline misleading.
The underlying figure quoted prior re triggering a rate rise was 0.9% or above. Its turned out to be 1% so obviously its heavily on the cards. Hopefully the RBA will want to make the Rodent pay for exploiting interest rates (and the role off the RBA) at the last election.
Lets face it, theres going to a rise either now or sometime soon. I’d prefer a rate rise now, when Howard can take the blame, than one just after Rudd gets in. It would consolidate the election, possibly give the Labor party a shot at the Smirks seat, and stop all the lib stooges in the press from blaming a later rise on Labor.
I am glad the media is accepting a short term rate rise as an inevitability as the RBA won’t feel pressured to hold off just because there is an election campaign underway.
The RBA pays attention to the figures the ABS calls the RBA CPI measures. They rose 0.9 and 1.0 % respectively which means inflation is lurking and rates will go up
Pancho,
The underlying is more important. It made the case in August as well.
Not necessarily Will, it would more likely neutralise the issue since people would realise rates are going up no matter who’s in.
The farmers union the National Farmers Federation has a rep on Radio National right now acting as an apologist for Clueless Coonan and the Coalition and their pathetic broadband policies.
Caller after caller tells of their problems and the telecommuncations from the stoneage in RARAland but the fatcat “heavy” from the NFF steadfastly defends the government.
The NFF just a bunch of agrarian socialists.
Rates at 127 – yes, I know that.
Paul K. You’re right, I can see how the logic is similar to Howard’s assumption that “what’s good for me is good for the country”.
The difference is that I wouldn’t deliberately shaft people for my own (”and the country’s”) benefit.
Also, higher interest rates aren’t bad for everyone. Being younger, I don’t have a mortgage, so a rate rise actually helps my savings somewhat. If you have a mortgage you gotta take the bad with the good. A lot of people benefited from the housing boom — I didn’t, and houses are too pricey for me to consider buying anywhere where I’d be interested in living.
So I don’t have a lot of sympathy for home owners with mortgages. Rate rises are part of the package, and home owners receive plenty of benefits to compensate.
It seems they go by the underlying which is 0.9%. But this measure is for only for the last quarter (3 months) just gone, if the rate remains the same for a year you would get 3.6% which is above the 2 – 3% band that the RBA charter says the board has to keep inflation in.
Ashley… going by your logic people should only care about WorkChoices if they’re on a bad AWA and anyone that’s benefited by being on a good AWA should just forget about everyone else.
Update on 135
RN followed up with a woman on “Country Viewpoint” who lives a half hour drive from the APH. Can’t get broadband or even a decent phone connection.
Talk about making the NFF look like partisan shills they are.
The problem for the RBA is that the yearly figures are just on the target band (2.9 and 3.1) respectively, but the last quarter is higher than the average of the last year .
So inflation is right at the top of the band – and rising.
Rates are going to go up.
The Oz says rates will go up, so do Westpac and ANZ analysts, as does our friendly rates analyst. The Child Care stuff is a fiddle, and the decreases in prices are for things that we import and they presumably went down ’cause the dollar went up. Apparently the RBA uses the trimmed mean and the weighted median as key indicators. I assume the aussie$ is up because (i) we owe people a shitload of dollars and we need high rates to get them to keep lending to us and (ii) people o/s are buying $AU because of the terms of trade and (iii) they expect our interest rates to stay high. But the RBA has to balance all that against the inflationary risk, the level of foreign debt, the fact that the economy is right up against capacity constraints …
The AUD$ is up 0.8 cents on the day.
RA is correct and the RBA likes to lok at 6 monthly figures which means annualised rate is 4% or thereabouts.
rates are going up
Rates will now surely have to rise, simply because of the publicity this is going to generate.
If the market says “rise” and all the media goes on and on about a “rise”, the RBA is going to have to cover its arse isn’t it? Otherwise the markets will be unhappy, and the public will suspect the decision has been politically motivated.
Rates Analyst – Some economist from the ANZ bank was arguing on Sky News that it’s mainly housing costs that are pushing up inflation and that several of the important underlying figures are actually showing a fall. He went on to say he thought rates wouldn’t rise.
Did you hear what he said and do you think such an argument has any value?
Peter Martin
http://petermartin.blogspot.com/2007/10/rba-trimmed-mean-for-september-quarter.html
Also from the Herald:
“Senior UBS economist Adam Carr said: “On balance it does increase the risk the Reserve Bank could tighten again in November. A lot will depend on the detail. Certainly the odds of a rate hike this year have increased materially on this result,”
How many hats do you wear, Adam?
ABC News leads with Bill Evans, Westpac – “rates will have to go up. Core inflation at .9 for each of last two qrs, making annual inflation at 3.6 per cent.”
He is right. Stevens will act. IT IS OVER.
Futures market has already started pricing an interest rate rise in November – looks likely, but by no means certain.
P.S. The above statement may change once the information is fully digested.
Did Bill Evans play some piano during his analysis?
Re 43,
Bendigo will not fall to the Libs. While I don’t live there, my in-laws do and we have regular contact with them. They assure me that Bendigo is Labor country.
futures market has a 80% probability of rate rise
From what I hear from Sky News, it is only Comm Bank that is hesitant on the likelihood of a rate rise in November. All the other banks, including those that were previously predicting no rate rise in November, now believe that there will be one on Melbourne Cup day.
no on the wednesday
And there was the Smirk last night telling banks to hold mortgage rates, well he can kiss that threat goodbye, coz the banks are going to jump and there’s nothing Costello can do about it.
“Who do you trust?” Now, that’s a slogan to die for.
Housing is indeed a major contributor.
The ANZ guy is correct – if you’re happy to live on the street. Rent is rising in a big way, as are utilities. As is food.
The scary thing is that petrol was down siginficantly over Q3 – but rising strongly so far in Q4.
Lose the election please Says:
October 24th, 2007 at 12:00 pm
Ashley… going by your logic people should only care about WorkChoices if they’re on a bad AWA and anyone that’s benefited by being on a good AWA should just forget about everyone else
Not at all. I don’t think that’s a fair comparison.
Most people here agree that Workchoices is fundamentally unfair to low-paid workers.
Interest rate rises are not fundamentally unfair. They are a fact of life. If you own a home you have to take them into account.
Noocat, Adam and others,
At the very least, for those who live in the ACT you can be assured that the territory laws for same sex relationships won’t be interfered with any more. If Labor is voted in, Ruddock is gone and I’m sure whomever ends up as the Labor AG will be accomodating
Actually, looking at the delayed futures prices, they’re now saying that they are certain that interest rates will go up by December – from that, I extrapolate that the RBA will have to pull the trigger in November, as a rate rise in December without one in November would look like it was playing politics with interest rates.
Well then Ashley, home owners shouldn’t blame Howard shoud they?
The whole argument that we should be looking forward to a rates rise is nonsensical.
The RBA meeting is on the Tuesday, the announcement on the Wednesday.
Apologies for the glib response. Yes housing is providing most of the rise – but people need to buy houses. So there’s no escaping from house price inflation (or rent inflation, more specifically).
Arguing that the RBA won’t move becuase it’s only housing that’s increasing is both a) not complteley true and b) disingenuous.
People need to have houses.
California is experiencing a ‘prefect storm’ and now JWH is getting his worst nightmare, a rate rise on the eve the election.
LTEP @ 161,
You’re exactly right – EXCEPT Howard took credit for lower interest rates in 2004. This is his problem – it was wrong for him to take credit back then and it is wrong to blame him for the rise now – but as they say, “If you live by the sword, you die by the sword”.
Though the link between and rate rise and rent inflation is ticky … I’ll think about it.
All that they need to do is pretend an election isn’t on. Would they, all other things being equal raise rates? If the answer is yes, a rate raise is on.
The final nail in Howard’s coffin!
Bye bye Rodent and Captain Smirk!
Of course home owners shouldn’t blame Howard. But he is an idiot for claiming to be able to control them in the first place.
The irony is delicious.
FWIW, I would happily cop an interest rate rise if I had a mortgage purely for the pleasure of seeing Howard’s lies exposed just when it counts. Sorry, but I am loving this.
Ah, sweet irony. Here is the legacy of Paul Volcker coming back to bite a Reagan acolyte in the bum.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_Volcker#Chairman_of_the_Federal_Reserve
Rates Analyst,
My understanding of the link between a rate rise and rent inflation is this:
Rate rise = lessening of construction and new housing demand = fewer houses being constructed = housing supply falls relative to current housing demand = rents go up = higher inflation
Rudd will avoid gloating if there is an interest rate increase. Rudd should simply point out that Howard made a promise he couldn’t keep.
It goes to Howard’s character, as Howard said to Keating in the 2nd ‘96 debate “the people don’t believe you anymore”. That statement now applies to Howard.
If the interest rate is increased it will be higher than when Howard was elected, which destroys the argument that the Coalition creates lower interest rates than Labor.
Hopefully this will cool the pork-barrelling down a bit… from both sides. It’s just getting ridiculous. A billion here, a billion there, ten billion somewhere else.
Both sides of politics should be ashamed of themselves. The public think the economy is a magic pudding. Did anyone see that old duck from Eden-Monaro on Insiders? “Just gimme the money!” The pundits don’t give a stuff. All they can talk about is how “clever” Howard has been in his bribery. It’s like there’s no bloody tomorrow.
But there is a tomorrow. What is given in bribes today will be soaked up – not by the RBA, not by the government but by the effing banks.
Howard, like mike Connor in the 1983 America’s Cup, has sailed out into the spectator fleet, daring Rudd to follow him in the last leg of the race. Rudd seems not to have the confidence to sail his own race and just head for the finish line (it’s over THERE, Kevin). What’s the purpose of winning if the basis of our society starts to crash?
The Magic Pudding economy can’t last forever. Some day the chocolate sauce will run out. That could be soon. There’s got to be a way to spread out the excess tax collected… in a non-inflationary manner.
Come on you geniuses in the political parties. Get your thinking caps on!
Agree – it’s unfortunate people choose to gear themselves to the hilt without realising that these are quite good interest rates historically and they were bound to rise sooner or later. I would hope they would factor in AT LEAST a 2-3% rate rise when determining how much to borrow..
“He warned the banks he would not allow them to raise rates because of the collapse of the US subprime lending market. ‘ .. there are no grounds … for any of the banks to use the US subprime fallout as a reason
to put up home mortgages,” Mr Costello told ABC TV.”
So now he’s going to personally stop banks from passing on the increase in their funding costs? (as they are entitled to do under their contacts with the borrowers)
& this little gem from the Canberra times:
“Asked whether the injection of so much extra cash would fan inflation
further and force the Reserve to push interest rates still higher he replied, “I don’t regard it as inflationary to make sure that pensioners are protected against the impact of cost of living increases. “I think, you know, economics has lost its meaning if you regard something
like that as inflationary.”
These two are becoming increasingly ridiculous
Macquarie Bank’s view (not just one hike, but several):
“The CPI outcome is more than sufficient to justify a rate hike. But while these data may have answered one question — when will the RBA hikes rates — it raises another question: how far will the RBA have to raise interest rates? In our view, the increase in underlying inflationary pressures means that the RBA may be contemplating a string of policy tightenings in coming months.”
The HSBC view:
“Despite a deep reluctance to move in the midst of a federal election campaign, the persistence of high core inflation through the third quarter leaves the Reserve Bank with no choice but to decide on a 25bp tightening to 6.75% at its November 6 board meeting. We are now pencilling another rate increase in March and pondering whether there may be still more to come through 2008.”
Rudd should never have me-tooed those tax cuts, methinks. If he’d held off a week, he could have said he was banking them into a long-term infrastructure fund.
Forgot to note that the second quote at 174 is Howards
JWH has no one to blame but himself and his bloody ego >;-( ……. Had he pulled the plug after APEC when he should have, we would have had the election last Saturday. Instead he diced with the devil and now he has LOST and must pay the piper
:)
Well, as a few of us pointed out, Rudd has missed an opportunity by not waiting for CPI figures before releasing his tax policy.
It would have been very easy to paint Howard as an interest rate risk, but now he is in exactly the same position and has to defend Howard’s policies.
It won’t make any difference to the election result, but Rudd is now saddled with handing out billions of dollars in tax cuts if he wins, while he watches interest rates climb.
Amongst all the talk of rate rises, here is another bit of whining from the Minister for Workplace Relations:
http://www.theage.com.au/news/National/ACTU-stacking-letters-columns-Hockey/2007/10/24/1192941104346.html
“Failure to condemn this practice will see Mr Rudd and Mr Combet complicit in an activity designed to deceive Australians,” he said.
Unlike the last 11.75 years of government, which has been absolutely pristine, with no deception of any sort going on whatsoever.
KT: The problem is, Howard campaigned in 04 on saying he will keep rates at record lows. He also had made them ‘aspirational’ and as such they borrow to get ahead or they put everything on their cards and pay only the minimum. A rate rise will 6 rate rises since 04, and 10 since rises have started to go up. This will start to hurt even those who got in when rates were 2.5% lower.
Even if the RBA doesn’t move next month (but it seems highly likely that they will) this derails the rodentine campaign for at least a couple of weeks, if not permanantly. Smirk and co. can’t be seen to be browbeating the RBA – although one of their increasingly desperate number may be stupid enough to try. Swan gets a couple of free kicks for the debate thingy next week; and everyone knows the rate rise is going to happen soon – whether November, December, January or February. Always of course subject to market conditions not turning turtle. Rudd and the gang can look relatively responsbile and only offer prok for investments which increase productive capacity – education, preventative health care, child care, re-training, infrastructure investment (incl broadband), and so on. Rodent will have to stop giving strangers bags of money. Lovely! (although prospective mortgage repayments will cause serious damage to my champagne purchases on 24 Nov – have to get local stuff).
30-day interbank cash futures (an indication of where the official cash rate is headed) is now fully priced for a November rate rise and has the cash rate at 7 per cent by mid next-year.
Triffid, that Howard quote is actually so predictable it’s not funny. He trades on the emotiveness of an issue to cancel out any criticism.
For instance,
Q: “Is it likely your policy of giving each Australian citizen a bar of gold good economic policy?”
Howard: “I find that suggestion absurd. If making sure that Australians have more wealth is bad economic policy I don’t know what good policy is.”
Well, if Rudd had waited until after today to release his tax policy, Howard would have lambasted him during the debate about not releasing a tax policy and there (probably) would not have been a bounce for Labor in the latest Newspoll.
I think we’re all forgetting that these tax cuts don’t take effect until July 2008 and will not effect inflation until then. It would have been much riskier for Rudd to deny tax cuts on the basis that they may affect inflation next year, when Howard was promising tax cuts now (well, not now but you get what I mean…)
178 – Ashley, but if they can bury this bracket creep argument, maybe the rediculuousness will not need to be ongoing.
Given the newspoll headlines on the back of the debate, it was probably still the right politics to neutralise Howard on the Friday with the cuts.
Pancho, Swing Lowe — I agree that the politics was probably right, given that it was only a 50/50 chance it was going to happen.
Swing Low at 184, Newspoll was taken BEFORE the debate. I think Rudd panicked in matching the tax cuts. Big boo boo.
Rates Analyst
The bloke from the ANZ seemed to be arguing that to try and fix the housing issue with a rate rise would somehow be self defeating. As a non economist I didn’t really understand a lot of it.
People are going to need their tax cuts to pay for future interest rate rises, which will be fuelled by tax cuts.
Mr Denmore @ 187,
I know that. But, Rudd’s tax policy was seen as the catalyst for the Labor bounce in the Newspoll – otherwise, it is likely that it would have reflected the AC Nielsen and Galaxy polls taken when only the Coalition’s tax policy had been announced.
The most devastating aspect of the expected interest rate rise is its timing with respect to the election date – the difference being slightly less than 3 weeks.
Possum has shown previously (http://possumcomitatus.wordpress.com/2007/08/22/i-love-the-smell-of-interest-rates-in-the-morning/) that the ALP receives a Newspoll primary boost of 2.5%, 3 Newspolls after the rise occurs. Interestingly, he shows that the ALP also gets a Morgan boost, 3 Morgan polls after a rate rise. Given that the Morgans were being held weekly and the Newspolls fortnightly, it’s quite likely we will see some significant ALP boost, not directly after the interest rise, but about 3 to 6 weeks later i.e. it should be filtering through right in time for November 24.
Perfect storm indeed.
Darn @ 188,
The analyst you’re talking about was Craig James from Commsec – the ANZ guy said he was practically certain that there would be a rate rise in November.
The fact remains that the clowns currently in office effectively told us all that they could be trusted to keep rates low. Lots of people believed them. Of course, they have little more control of these things than they have on whether the Chinese economy goes ballistic. their credibility on economic matters is torpedoed below the waterline in the best and most publicly humiliating way. Just before they hit the iceberg (aka the long term 2PP trend). Maybe Howard will retire for health reasons later this week.
What’s the betting market like now? Surely some big money was put on Labor in the last hour? (I can’t check due to work blocking the sites).
“People are going to need their tax cuts to pay for future interest rate rises, which will be fuelled by tax cuts.”
Howard-flation?
While not directly related to todays CPI figures, but looks like chicken prices are going to rise between 20-30% due to grain prices.
http://www.smh.com.au/news/National/Price-of-chicken-to-increase-by-2030/2007/10/24/1192941118288.html
Will, betting markets haven’t moved yet — surprisingly. They are sitting at around 1.45 on Labor which is where they were earlier this morning. They have fallen from as high as 1.71 last week.
I don’t think the betting markets (or the polls for that matter) are going to move much in reaction to this until the interest rate rise actually happens (if it happens).
After that, expect a plunge on Labor (as well as a heap of Labor ads reminding us of Howard’s promise in 2004).
Will – Centrebet hasn’t moved. I have been trying to follow the markets, and have been surprised at how slow and reactive their movements seem to have been. I was expecting to get more from them…maybe as the race has been so one sided so far, they aint giving me much.
Ashley, just because you don’t have a mortgage does not make you exempt from the effects of a rate rise.
You will pay more for any sort of borrowing including use of credit cards.
You will also pay more in you rent. Anyone owning rental property simply increases rent to cover interest rises. Furthermore rental property investment is reduced meaning less rental properties available in future, which also increases rent based on demand.
The only winners are those that fully own their property and have hordes of cash invested.
I wonder if Labor will become unbackable favourites by election week?
This is a LONG campaign, but if the polls and interest rates are consistently bad for the government, the campaign may be ‘over’ with a fortnight to go.
Small interest rates rises, per se, are not a problem for most borrowers who would have factored that possibility in when they borrowed. However, they ARE a problem for Howard because his advertising stated (arrogantly and stupidly) in the 2004 election campaign, ‘keeping interest rates at record lows’. Having used that slogan, Howard ‘owned’ the interest rate issue from then on. Five rises and another likely, his arrogant self belief has come back to bite him just at the wrong time.
Howard’s face and shoulder tics are bound to start acting up now as the pressure intensifies. The “senior moments” will come thick and fast as we see the public unravelling of the rodentine political warrior. In its wake, the implosion of his once-great political party. Plenty of fodder for youtube videos ahead!
But SIX since the last election is going to hurt a lot of people. I agree that most people are prudent and factor in the risk. But SIX rises in 3 years is a lot.
Thanks Swing Lowe (192) – got them around the wrong way.
Will @ 180: I do not particularly want rates to go up and I agree the interest rate “promise” of Howard was distasteful and misleading, but sometimes we have to lessons of financial management the hard way and monetary policy has to do what it has to do. Hopefully, this will dispel any silly myths about interest rates.
And those who have longed for day when karma would come back and bite Howard on the arse
“sometimes we have to lessons”
Sorry, that should be “sometimes we have to LEARN THE lessons”
CL de F – 193 yes, I truly believe there is a possibility that Howard will quit for health reasons before the election. His making a concession speech on 24 Nov must be anathema to him and Hyacinth.
The Bookies have said they are worried about losing a lot of money if Labor wins as they are holding some huge bets for Labor.
Its arguable whether Rudds tax cut was good politics – there’s the inflation argument for starters (yes july 2008 kicking in – but Labor could have exploited the politics of this.)
There’s also the fact that Labor has rolled over to Howard’s agenda on so many issues. The tax cut is good short term politics but in the long term Rudd has effectively neutered himself re spending options in the future. The commitment to flattened, regressive tax scales in the future will only consolidate this. So much for the infrastructure spending, health and education. The thing is, all polls are suggesting that people want spending in these areas rather than tax cuts. The politicians seem to think they’re joking. Rudds talking about infrastrucure, squandering the resources boom etc and then essentially doing what Howards doing – squandering it in tax cuts that will just get siphoned off into interest rate payments for the banks down the track. Its crazy.
I agree, Rudd should have waited and announced a range of small progressively targeted tax cuts while preserving substantial funds for health and education, infrastructure etc.
re: Private Health Insurance Rebate (ESJ @ #59)
ESJ,
I would hardly call the private health insurance rebate middle class welfare.
It was introduced, in conjunction with a tax penalty for people without private health insurance, to prop up the Private Health Insurance industry, a failing business sector.
The beneficiaries of this policy are the 23 members of the AHIA business union.
Just another example of a Liberal Party Government dominated by powerful Bosses Unions.
Ashley @ 207
I’m quite prepared to pay the extra bit per month to watch Karma take a dump right on the Rodent and his Rat Pack.
The electorate will never actively vote John Howard out of power. Never. Everything else – the fact that Labor is putting itself in an impossible position regarding IR, for example – is immaterial.
Steven Kaye, 26 / 9 / 06
I’ve been wondering this for weeks – why Hyacinth?
KT @ 206
Yes, it’s high time that myth of interest rate control went out the window. What a joke that is.
Costello likes to talk about being in the control of a finely-tuned racing car. It’s about time he was pulled over and tested by a RBT… I mean an RBA.
I assume it is her resemblence to : http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MGhkHHqIu1U
We factored in by a large amount the possibility of rate rises when we took out our mortgage, never did we think it would go up by as much as $400 (or more come next rise) since we bought our place in may 2004 – my partner earns good money and we have 3 kids…this is gonna really really hurt us – we are barely now managing with the last rise in August plus the cost of food and petrol and healthcare for a family of 5.
I didn’t vote for the Rodent last time and hate him for making others vote for him in the belief that he could keep rates at record lows. I never believed that crap…as someone else just mentioned – he “owns” interest rates after the 2004 election & I hope he is decimated come Nov 24.
I wonder if you’ll still be saying that the day after the election.
# 215 – Burgey, this is the name used by the staff at Kirribilli House to refer to Mrs Rodent. It is a reference to Hyacinth Bucket, the character with massive delusions of grandeur in the British comedy (sic), “Keeping Up Appearances”.
I hope if Rudd wins he makes it the central aim of his economic policy to remove capacity constraints.
If that means the federal government paying billions to upgrade every port in the country so we can export more faster then so be it.
It would be better spent there rather than pissed up a wall like has happened over the last 10 years.
Never ever underestimate the capacity for Howard to spin bad news in his favour. I suspect his line will be something like: “Yes, interest rates have risen, but that is testament to the strength of the economy. But just think how much higher rates would be if Mr Rudd and his lot were in power? In this sort of climate, when fine judgements are required, you need an experienced team behind the driving wheel. That’s what Mr Costello and I represent.”
Story and photo here.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keeping_Up_Appearances
Rudd will no doubt sympathise on camera with the fiscally overstretched among us, but secretly he would be delighted if (when) rates rise on Nov 7. If they do, it underscores the deception in Howard’s stupid 2004 promise to keep ‘em down, and Rudd will pick up a few extra votes; if rates don’t rise in November, then it’s almost certain they will rise next time the RB sits -after the election. No doubt Rudd would rather it happen now than give whoever leads the Opposition after Nov 24 the chance to say: Labor’s been in power only five minutes, and already rates are going up.
re my post 218……Thats $400 a f/n by the way (or more come next rise)
ladies and gentlemen,
once you lock in on whether there’s a rate rise on Nov.7th,
lets go to BetFair to make easy money
Right now @ 1pm 24 Oct, the odds are:
No change: $2.1
Rise 0.25: $1.35
Mr Denmore @ 222,
That’s exactly what Howard will say. He’ll ignore the interest rate rise and say ‘interest rates will always be lower under a Coalition government than a Labor government’ – the problem is that, this time, no one’s going to believe him (hopefully).
“but looks like chicken prices are going to rise between 20-30% due to grain prices”.
Beware the wrath of KFC eaters!!
Thanks guys.
The resemblance really is uncanny.
The economic management myth really amuses me. Costello is surrounded by a legion of pinheads in treasury who have basically held his hand ever since he wandered in 12 years ago as a clueless lawyer. The Ferrari analogy really is hilarious. Managing the economy in an time of globalistion (decentralistation, deregulation, small govt etc) is about the equivalent of steering a boat in a hurricane. The guy really is a joke…Mr Magoo would be a better management analogy.
I do agree with you to some extent there. It is often said you get the Govt you deserve so there are many out there that are now going to pay dearly for selling their soul to Howard in the pursuit of “self interest”.
Nonetheless there were many who did not sell out to Howard’s “aspirational” greed who unfortunately now have to suffer as well. It is that group I feel for.
The others, those flooding back to ALP in tears that Johnnie let them down, actually deserve to carry the cost of forsaking national principle for greed.
And Bucket is pronounced “bouquet”
Julie @ 177
Isn’t it amazing how many things are coming back to bite the rodent! It must be a very sore proverbial “rat’s @rse”!
Interest rates, Hicks, (non)-retirement, infrastructure, reconciliation and the ugliest gorilla in the room: Serf Choices.
It couldn’t happen to a more deserving polly. In the immortal words of his hero “Bring it on”.
Let It End: “You will also pay more in you rent. Anyone owning rental property simply increases rent to cover interest rises. ”
Not true. Landlords are often locked into leases, and in many areas the competition for accommodation is not so hot that rents can just be jacked 10 or 20 bucks a week without consequences. Losing tennants or having to wait a month or two for new ones stuffs the yearly accounts something fierce.
I know, you’re all feeling sorry for me now.
Off topic in a different direction, is it conspiracy theorising too much to be impressed with the ALP machine, with regards to both the Hicks and Haneef fiascos raising themselves at the same time?
I do not know about anyone else but I do not think the ALP tell mick Keelty what to say nor did they interview anyone in the US
Pancho @235
It’s the ‘perfect storm’ scenario. Anything and everthing that the Coalition has cocked up over the last decade is rising to bite the rodent on the bum.
I know it’s cosmic, but the resignation of the US prosecutor in the Hicks case and now Keelty’s weird about face on Haneef are just part of the great and mysterious process.
Watch the odds on Bennelong and get some Maxine while you still can!
235,
Yes, it is too much of a stretch to combine the two with a conspiracy theory. If you read the details of the Hicks story yesterday (?), it is clear that the story was precipitated by the resignation of one of the Col. in charge of things at GB. He wouldn’t have the foggiest about the ins and outs of another countries election. I don’t know the details of the Haneef fiasco rearing its head at this time so I can’t speak to that one. Whether or not you can tag that with a consp. theory, I don’t know
.
Now, however, if you subscribe to the theory of karma which several posters have raised in the last few hours; yes, I subscribe happily to that theory. What goes around comes around
…..
228 beware KFC eaters -
I don’t think KFC chooks eat grain. I thiught they were grown in chemical vats withoiut heads or legs. Or something like that!
#234 Crispy, it is true, end of lease rises are very common and in any case all commercial and domestic leases carry a CPI index clause. Read the fine print.
There is a rental shortage already, I don’t know what areas you are referring to but not anywhere I have property. I have never had problems getting tenants, in fact I always have a “waiting” list.
Will an interest rate rise be supposed to slow down rising house prices and rents?
I can understand that it will slow down rises in house prices, but considering the number of investment homes that are rented out to pay back the mortgage, I expect that these rate rises are actually leading directly to increased rents.
I didn’t get a chance to watch the Michael Brissenden report last night so watched it on-line just now.
http://www.abc.net.au/7.30/content/2007/s2067928.htm
Pay attention closely on the guy behind JWH at about 4.43 min onwards, he appears to be prompting JWH. Possible that JWH needs someone now to remind him as to what to say?!!
Mick Keelty obviously wants to keep his job after the election.
As a result, home loan interest rates sit at a 11-year high.
Some voters intend to punish the Coalition for those rises at the ballot box on November 24, according to a recent NEWS.com.au survey that reveals the mounting debt crisis facing many Australians.
One in five of the respondents who voted Coalition in 2004 said they now planned to vote against the Government because of rate rises.
http://www.news.com.au/business/story/0,23636,22640290-462,00.html
Labor brings recession and pain for working Australians
Liberal gives everybody who wants to work more opportunity
Lindsay voter… a few of us noticed that last night. It’s not a good look, but we know most politicians get prompted or read from scripts.
Think you might have to ring headquarters for the new script Tabitha !
“Liberal gives everybody who wants to work more opportunity” to work without pay.
Labor attacks working mums like Kelly Hoare
Labor looks after girlfriends and mistresses
” Labor looks after girlfriends and mistresses “.
What wrong with that?
Labor causes interest rate increases
Liberal gives money back to people who need it like pensioners
So, can and will Labor use the Hicks and Haneef momentum positively, or just to thrash Howard and skeletor? Possibility of immigration or multiculturalism announcements, or too far beyond a small target stretagy?
Labor supports Muslim terrorists
Liberal keeps Australians safe
Tabitha,
How did Labor cause any of the last 9 interest rate rises?
“Liberal gives money back to people who need it like pensioners” and CEOs and Packer and Murdoch.
Tabitha bring innane silly remarks to pollbludger
Tabitha is here, won’t be long for Glen to arrive.
Tabitha arouses Glen
Glen dissapoints Tabitha by being gay
Tabitha @ 245, great blanket statement.
Labor cannot keep Australia safe
Liberal will protect our borders
Liberals “Going for Growth” – in interest rates
Tabitha wastes William’s bandwidth
Tabitha doesn’t donate to William for Pollbludger
” Liberal will protect our borders ” and Exclusive Brethren types.
Futurama’s take on the 2004 election: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qMvdethwMoQ
Tabitha still seems hypnotised, but Howard has lost ‘the eyes’ for a lot of her lot, unfortunately.
Inspired by Tabitha.
Now speaking only in couplets.
Paul K @ 219
Yep twice as happy the day after if Howard pays the price.
Interest rates are going up. Nothing any of us can do in the short term. The reasons are beyond even the government’s control except at the periphery, and it must be admitted that a lot of the reasons are due to the strength of the economy. But, this government has done sod all to create this economic strength (the best that can be said for them is they didn’t totally stuff it up, which is actually not a bad effort). They must however carry the can for running disgracefully dishonest campaigns that prey on the economically illiterate in order to win elections. As others have said, Live by the Sword.
Where the government could have done some good to alleviate the capacity constraints that are feeding into inflation they have mostly preferred to play petty politics or bribe the electorate rather than invest in the education, R&D, and infrastructure that would have made a difference. Rudd at least is talking about doing some good in this direction.
So to answer your question – we’re going to be paying more for credit over the next couple of years whoever wins. For the reserve to hold fire for a month to get the rise out of the election and so hand the incoming Rudd government a huge shit sandwich would be the worst kind of playing politics and cause for calling their independence into question. I have no problem at all paying the price from Nov as it is clearly in all of our longer term interest to get inflation under control as soon as possible. The fact the Rodent gets to feel the wrath of all those he misled with his “who do you trust” deceit is just a nice case of just deserts.
You’ve convinced me Tabitha , something about the hypnotic metre you’re using. You’re not holding a swinging watch are you?
YAY – Tabby’s back.
Love those two lines of Tory nonsense.
So those domestic violence ads were aimed at the Tory faithful?
price of chicken to rise 20-30%………..could be financially rewarding to bump off Costello
Wombat – thats the line of the day
LOL @ Red wombat. That’s got to be the quote of the day, though I don’t recommend bumping anyone off, no matter how much you hate them.
LOL!
Last one before off to do work, I promise. Gonzo, on 11 years of JWH: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tE3KNaxijaQ
In light of Rudd’s tax cuts being more popular than Howard’s, the Newspoll pre-debate results, Rudd’s strong debate performance, and now the high prob of an interest rate rise, I’m upping Labor’s prob of victory to 95%; that’s up from 85% before last Sunday night.
Woah, I didn’t realise that 0.95 is the HIGHEST every recorded (even higher than the 0.90 from last quarter).
“The core measure of inflation, which drives the Reserve Bank’s thinking on interest rates, rose by 0.95 per cent in the September quarter, the highest level since the Reserve Bank started calculating measures for core inflation five years ago.”
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22639801-601,00.html
I am very sorry for borrowers under financial stress but as Ashley said it is much better to get the inevitable rate increase now whilst Howard is campaigning rather than later when Rudd is in Government.
So woohoo if the rate is bad.
Ashley I’ll try – but I actully need to give my views to my erstwhile employer first – they do pay me afterall.
I’ll be here shortly after for a chat though!!!!
Looks like $weets is trying to outdo Red Wombat
http://petermartin.blogspot.com/2007/10/laughter-in-dealing-rooms-throughout.html
I think this thread is producing some of the most useful, thoughtful, intelligent and relevant posts for some time. Ross Gittins clearly articulated what many progressives have been worried about: we see the crying need for a clear vision of a successful Australia in a world suffering cataclysmic climatic change and the appalling consequences of Leo Strauss and the Bush imperialist presidency. The fishing may be good in troubled waters, but I would like to see more evidence that a Rudd Government has the perceptions and resources to steer a safe course.
LTEP I should have known that it would have been picked up by a pollbludger earlier!
LOL. A rate rise on Melbourne Cup Day. Talk about a perfect storm for Howard!
ruawake 260
With commentators saying a rate rise is a virtual certainty, Swan now has the amunitition to crucify Costello at the debate.
Ratsak @ 265,
Fair enough point on the rate rises. Glad you can afford it.
The rodent not only promised record low interest rates in 2004, he claims now to have the best economic managers in place to maintain low interest rates for the future.
The likely rate rise in November ensures he loses credibility in both areas – and this only two weeks prior to people going to the polls.
The rodent’s lies are catching up with him – and this time there is no escape.
If the RBA doesn’t lift rates in November can you imagine the cries of political interference?
No way out this time, rodent! And won’t it be good (finally!) to see him take his medicine.
Will, browse to http://www.topfreeproxy.com/ and then put the address of the betting agency in the box….should be able to bypass blocks. there are plenty of other proxies around if that doesn’t do the business….
The treasurer also stated that from January 1st, 2008, black will now be called white.
Crikey has already conceded the election to Rudd
….. I do not know if anyone else has caught this yet and/or if Crikey will catch it and fix the error later today. But in case they do, I have cut and pasted here for posterity 
:):):):)
“John Howard is spending like the proverbial drunken sailor, setting the joint on fire before he leaves and ensuring the incoming Labor Government will be locked into long-term spending commitments. He’s determined not to do a Jeff Kennett and leave the Labor Party with bags of cash.”
For next Tuesday, Swan should base his whole debate on why the government has been unable to control inflation.
Howard shouldn’t be making promises he can’t keep, especially when he fuels the rates by years of throwing cash into the economy willy nilly.
Kevin Rudd is all sweetness and light.
John Howard is the devil incarnate.
(Just thought I’d give the Tabitha method of debating a go. It certainly cuts down on the need to think very much).
When’s the board meeting? November’s a long month.
oh ok Darn, if you can’t beat them join them.
Rudd – Good
Howard – Bad
They decide on November 6th (Melbourne Cup Day), and the decision is announced in the morning on November 7th.
Tabitha cause much mirth with her funny posts
Result is coffee sprayed all over my keyboard
Interest rates, Haneef, Hicks, the worm, costello (nothing particular just costello)
When it rains it pours.
Everyone’s chickens come home to roost
Every dog has its day..
etc etc
Alan Kohler thinks a November 7th rise is a certainty, and says there may even be another one in December.
If the need for a rise is that accute, why don’t they raise rates in November by 0.50% instead of 0.25%?
Is it because they worry that 0.50% may be too much in one go?
Howard is such a nice guy have you seen how he smiles? You might disagree with his policies but he does it because he knows whats best for his people and he’s a man of integrity.
Rudd will say anything to get elected. And don’t you know he looks like a dirty Chinese business man? If you vote for him he will let all the Chinese into Australia and they will take over and turn us over to Communism!!!
And let the terrorists in.
Holy crap. Supposedly Liberal HQ are forgetting about the election campaign, and are instead working the numbers for who becomes Liberal opposition leader!
“A Liberal leader from the ashes … Brendan Nelson
There’s counting of votes going on at a very senior level in the Liberal Party but it’s got nothing to do with November 24. It’s for a ballot after then: numbers work for a leadership contest. Crikey understands it’s absolutely serious, writes Christian Kerr.”
Nope Conspiracy Theory #17 isn’t as good as Tabitha by a long shot.
Conspiracy Theory (300)
You’re beginning to sound like Tabitha. Except that you can write sentences of more than six words.
“dirty” chinese businessman? yeah, that’s unnecessary.
JWH was very scratchy when interviewed by Jon Faine this morning on Dr H.& Andrews and David H.& Cheney. Very grumpy. Faine also commented on Rudd’s avoidance ofthe program as part of strategy of avoiding interviews where hard questions might be asked. Bill Shorten naturally defended Rudd against this charge……just before JWH came on board…’phone interview from Adelaide.
Bob Hawke on Agenda today
Guys is there any possibility that an interest rate rise might be a negative thing for Labor, in that it brings the theme ‘economy’ back to top of mind – one of the only themes the Liberals have ownership over? This could scare people into going for an ‘unproven’ alternative?
Whoops mean risking an unproven alternative
AH racism……..alive and well in Aus 2007.!
Bobby Horry — no chance. If the markets crashed then yes, but not interest rate rises.
Tabitha will feel wrath, November 24 wrath she will feel.
(Yoda speak anyone?
If it was 2 or 3 interest rates, then maybe. But now that it is 6 in a single term it makes the government look incompetent. It also makes it easy for Labor to attack to coalition for not controlling inflation, something they should’ve planned their economic policy around.
I see your point that it could be bad. But I think the fact it hurts the governmetns economic credibility out weighs that effect.
Rudd is catching Howard on the economy, I wouldn’t be surprised if Newspoll has Howard and Rudd even on economics by the week of the election.
Earlier this year, RBA Governor, Glenn Stevens said;
“If it is clear that something needs to be done, I do not know what explanation we could offer the Australian public for not doing it, regardless of when the election might be due.â€
I think Stevens had formed the view then that interest rates would have to be raised at least once during the second half of this year. Most commentators and bank economists are saying today that the RBA will act on 7Nov.
For Howard, the hearse awaits in the driveway.
Showson
If they’re considering post election leadership they may need to wait to see who actually scrambles on board HMS Parliament after the shipwreck.
The only viable option I can think of is turnbull who’ll be lucky to survive. Dolly Downer would be a reprise of his comedy routine of the mid 90s. I’d be happy with Brendan nelson but only cos he’s unelectable.
The Smirk is becoming somewhat of a joke. I suspect his reputation has taken an absolute battering in the last 6 months and that most libs would realise that he’s not a stable or viable proposition and that most voters would rather swig larks vomit than vote for him. His behaviour at the election debate should have been the last straw.
Bobby Horry @307, a year or so ago I might have agreed with that theory. But the fact is the punters finally, finally have seen through Howard’s pea and thimble tricks.
This particular trick is like that scene in the movie Blazing Saddles when the black sherriff, holding a lynch mob at bay, holds his own revolver to his head and yells: “One step closer and the nigger gets it”.
I think they should put Hawker in. Then he can learn what it’s like to have a Speaker worse then him.
Seriously, it’s too early for us to speculate about this, if it is true that the Libs are doing it then so be it, we need to focus on the next 4.5 weeks
showsOn @ 301 – er…deciding, before the election, on a leader for after the election? goodness, they’ll have to be careful they don’t pick someone who loses his/her seat. otherwise it’ll be back to the drawing board.
The Liberals must be expecting a rate rise. Costello is already blaming the unions.
Bronwyn…?
Imre Salunisky in the GG yesterday said that Costello spent the whole of the leaders debate “pulling faces’ at Rudd. And we all thought that Abbot was the one who was unstable
Custardello might struggle to get back in himself, if the current figures stand up even half way on election day. The Smirk’s body language has been almost as bad as Howard’s of late. In fact, all the Libs have been looking decidedly lack-lustre, not track-fit. The loss of all hope shows on them all. Howard’s legacy: a skeleton-thin Liberal party, twisted inside itself and seething with self-recrimination.
Unless he decides to invade Indonesia or sell Tasmania, Rudd can look forward to two or three terms with not much to worry about but Julia’s ambition.
everyone agrees there will be an interest rate rise soon, no matter who wins the election.
For me, it’s better happen during Howard’s watch. After all, it is his own making, isn’t it?
It would be unfair for Rudd to cope Howard’s crap (the 6th interest rise)
Well, given that the both the Liberal and National Parties are just about kaput… the only question being how long till everyone accepts this… maybe there is a role for Mr. Turnbul as an Aussie Silvio Bellusconi.
Sweeping up the ashes of the right, putting lotsa money into the start-up organisation (OzEparty?), rebranding the entity as a genuinely ‘liberal’ party… and like Menzies leading ‘his’ party to electoral success?
Only prob… I don’t think Malcolm has the political nous.
I am not surprised at this report that the Libs regard the election as lost. If their advertising drops off, we will know for sure and that they are keeping their money for later. The fight for opposition leader would be interesting considering so few suitable candidates. They would be looking for someone who can build and maintain credibility through the next term and beyond. Costello, Downer, Abbott, Ruddock, all have too much baggage. The only choice really would be Turnbull (he would be moved to a safer seat if he loses Wentworth) and Julie Bishop, to emulate Labor leaders’ team.
Did anybody hear princess Downer on ABC radio today talking about the hicks fix? My god, I thought she was going to burst a suspender the way he was railing. He was very “exarseperated”.
Bobby H.
Yes I thnk that will the spin from team rodent but it unlikely to be effective. I think the ALP just needs to play it strainght – don’t get too shrill. Express sympathy to those burdened with higher mortgage payments. Run the interest rates ads on high rotation (paricularily the one that points out the highest rate were under Howard) – point made – job done.
Howards gonna be in for the mother of all fare wells from the smirk after the election – he’s clearly under as much stress and pressure as Howard and its showing. History’s gonna be very unkind to him – Howards patsy, the guy that Howard played like a mug for 12 long years. Costello’s always worked off the Keating template but couldn’t quite bring himself to enact the major scene – tapping the ageing, vain and ineffectual leader on the shoulder and having the balls to follow through with it. All that macho bluster in parliament but he’s going to go out with a squeak….
The Coalition spin is out:
http://www.smh.com.au/news/National/Costello-plays-down-rate-rise-fears/2007/10/24/1192941126387.html
http://www.smh.com.au/news/National/IR-changes-would-lead-to-recession-govt/2007/10/24/1192941126375.html
i don’t think politics suits malcolm. or else he’s looking around at this pack of idiots in his party and thinking…omigod, who are these people?
Won’t be long and we will see Howard’s eyes and neck pop out on the end of springs as the whole creature comes apart.
Economic credentials down there with Humpty. AND hope Hawkey produces some quoteable quotes for the press on Howard and the economy
Two questions:
1. If the Libs really are doing the leadership numbers, I suspect that some of the existing bods will be retiring – which they can do before 1/11 (pls correct me if I’m wrong). I’d be guessing that Ruddock would be a near certainty to take a dive, maybe Tuckey, Bishop B., any others?
2. Did anyone manage call Howard a bastard this morning?
Mr. Rudd’s earwax issue goes international
http://blog.washingtonpost.com/offbeat/2007/10/youtube_waxes_aussie_mp_kevin_1.html
Humourous penultimate sentence questioning whether Rudd is fit leadership material because of this… Glen will be pleased! I wonder who dug that footage up… someone with access to the tapes… or maybe someone had noted it at the time. Horrific job… fast-forwarding through 9 years of parliamentary footage looking to see if Rudd did anything ‘funny’.
Thanks for the replies. If the RBA don’t raise the rates, then this would call their independence into question. Could the same be said if they did raise them – i.e. if this would all but seal the deal for Rudd. The 22% interest rate ads are great, although I’ve been reading some whingers on a couple of sites complaining that you can’t compare the 17% and 22% rates as Howard’s rates were for small business lending, not mortgages. Can anyone shed some light on this, I am economically thick.
Re 309:
Hint: [/sarcasm]
Oh god! Costello has used the R word? Last election we had to worry about Labor going to increase interest rates, now we will have to worry about Labor leading us to a recession. If team Coward wins and we end up in recession, I’m sure next election we will be told Labor will lead us to a depression.
Whoops another mistake mean did ‘not’ raise them
Next he’ll be warning about earthquakes and plagues of locusts if Labor gets in.
From Liberal hacks
New poetry is formed
thanks Tabitha
On the pork in marginals issue. I wonder if some voters – particularily those in QLD face a tricky choice. If they vote for the pork but Rudd still wins the election then its quite likely the Pork will disappear.
Its the usual routine, new govt come in, finds out the books are much worse than the expect – so there has to cuts. First to go is the pork in the marginals they did not win.
I’d quite like to see a result where NSW and VIC deliver victory and QLD fails to come to the party and finds itself on the outer in the next political cycle.
Fraser froze mortgage rates at 13% otherwise they would have been around 17%
Thanks Kina. So to compare Howard’s 22% with Labor’s 17% isn’t a 100% parallel?
Bobby, I can’t say I have ever heard Howard deny that interest rates were 22% on his watch, so I think that probably answers your question.
Will another (possible) rise in interest rates mean as much as people are saying?
Its also very likely that it will have a counter-reaction- people voting for the Libs- steady hand on the tiller and all that. Scared that if rates are rising fast, we should stick with what we know.
Bobby Horry – 333 – Re your Q about interest rates. Before the banks were deregulated in 1983 by Keating, housing finance was restricted to savings bank deposits which paid a very modest deposit rate and lending rates were capped. This policy limited the amount available for lending for housing. When Howard’s business rates were 22%, housing mortgage (savings bank) rates were capped at about 11%. I can remember being told by a bank manager back in those days that he had no money to lend for houses as all savings deposits had already been loaned out. Very strange compared with today where banks want to pile money on you.
i don’t think so, jim. i think that what people will see is that el rodente (semantics aside) promised to keep interest rates low, and that there have been 6 rises since then. they’ll want to kick the rat’s a^se.
Misty For all of you who think the ALP’s policies aren’t strong enough remember Howard pretended to be moderate to win power, then what happened?
The economic management narrowing theory
http://thepipingshrike.blogspot.com/2007/10/credit-by-association.html
I’m confused.
Did anyone else hear Costello on 7;30 report last night tell the Reserve Bank that there was absolitely no reason to increase interest rates?
And now they are going to ignore him!!
And yet for years`he and JWH have been telling us that it is in their power to control interest rates. Don’t tell me they were wrong…..
tossers.
Howard will be hoisted on his own petard over interest rates, however I feel Rudd has made his own life difficult in the longer term with the “Buck stops with me” stuff on health. Good short term politics, but the job ain’t going to be easy.
OK thanks all. Matthew I completely agree. Just wanted to know the background details is all on the 22%. Like probably 99% of Australians I have no idea about economics. Cheers
The following broadcast has been detected through a worm hole in space, (there’s the damn inverterbrate again!), and it comes from a few weeks in the future, and some experts think it’s the Melbourne Cup being called:
“…just two furlongs to go and Rodent’s Rear End is falling down the field, Mandarin Moment is way out in front, Bracket Creep’s looking tired but whoa! What’s this? Even Steven’s crushing Bracket Creep to the fence…he’s down, Bracket Creep is over, Rodent’s Rear End is bringing up the rear and oh, dear, he’s fallen on top of Bracket Creep and Mandarin Moment, the crowd’s favourite is five length’s in front as he crosses the finish line!”
Hang on, we’ve just confirmed it’s a bit later than that, in fact that’s the official vote counting from the tally room on November 24th.
Ladies and gentlemen, Rodent’s Rear End and Bracket Creep have just been put down, and Mandarin Moment is on a victory lap.
Jen – 348 Costello on 7.30 said there was no reason for the banks (not RBA) to raise rates because of the US sub prime mortgage crisis as they have little exposure to that market.
Any attempt to spin the 22% rates – saying there were business rates not morgages will not go well with one of their core supporters – small business. Howard is in a similar position to Latham in the last campain – he can’t directly defend the charge without making it worse.
I do find it funny that interest rates, something a govt has limited control over, could damage Howard so badly. Rates are on the rises to a large part becase regional economies (esp china) are growing.
After doing so much to kill the soul of this country and never once taking the blame – now he’s going down for something that he took responsiblity which was largely not the govt’s domain.
Costello on 7:30 Report earlier this year
“PETER COSTELLO, TREASURER: (Laughing) Well, of course, bananas were the largest component in that CPI figure. But as I was trying to explain in media today, interest rate policy is not just directed at the manual or the mechanical CPI. We try and look through one-off factors and we try to get a picture of what’s happening underline.
http://www.abc.net.au/7.30/content/2006/s1699014.htm
Now he tells us that the headline figure is all that is important. He can’t even remember what he said 3 months ago. Imbecile.
Julie @ 290
I wouldn’t put it past Howard to run a scorched earth policy from here on in. The rat is a lowlife vermin after all. To blow the budget and inflation, creating interest rate pain for the incoming Laborites would be exactly how he would think.
Rudd now surely has the ammo to disavow any more of the Rodent’s spending spree. I haven’t seen him respond yet to the $4bil for oldies, and I would hope he finds the courage to keep the chequebook mostly in the pocket from now on.
Howard sent many small businesses to the wall. I bet most of these people lost their homes. Funny thing is that you probably needed to have put your Company through the Bottom of the Harbour to have survived! I guy I know of built a very successful business using Howard’s corrupt scheme, in the end he could pay the fines ecause the business was raging! Still, the system was corrupt. But in those days the Government set the prices of mostly everything.
“The buck stops with me” is a good line, but you’re right Matthew, he will cop it in a couple of years.
Having said it though, and putting his credibility on the line, I have some optimism that he will kick some backsides to make improvements in the health system. If he doesn’t it will come back to haunt him.
The other thing worth noting is that if Labor wins this election, Rudd will be all-powerful and we will all gasp in awe as he passes. If he wants to cut through the crap I suspect not many people will be able to stand in his way.
Passthepopcorn
6 rates rises in 3 years, 1.5% increase in rates overall. I’m not sure that interest rates arent still comparatively ‘low’.
Of course Howard left himself some wriggle room by only saying that interest rates would be ‘lower’ under the coaltion than labour. This idea still has some resonance with the electorate. Its is only the critically stupid or deliberately mischievous who still state that Howard said “there will be no interest rate rises (at all) (( not saying you fall into either category))
Thanks Alex.
Still, wasn’t aware that it was his job to tellthe banks what they could do either.
Regardless of Costello weaving his spin the punters have put their own hard cash on that rates will rise and the libs will be blamed.
Centrbet has just blown the coalition out to 2.90 from 2.75 since the announcement.
Albert 353 – As I said in earlier post, Howard’s lies about ‘keeping interest rates at record lows’ made him the ‘owner’ of the rates issue in Australia. It is indeed ironic that the growth in the global economy, including Australia, is now his downfall.
I just hope Rudd doesn’t fall into the New Labour trap in the UK of employing loads of hospital administrators. The target driven culture in the British NHS has to be seen to be believed. Some of the targets might directly help patients, but many of them are being manipulated by people with too much time on their hands.
The past few weeks show why the betting markets aren’t believable. They merely react to things which may or may not effect the election outcome. To me, the polls still seem more reliable as a predictor.
One poll (Newspoll) and the release of economic figures shouldn’t be enough to change the odds so markedly.
Jen – 359 – That’s right, just him being the bully boy again. There is nothing he can do to stop banks from passing on the cost of money (excluding movement in RBA cash rate) if the banks choose to do so for new loans or re-finances.
If inflation is pushing into the 3-4% range. How does that effect the 30bil of tax cuts over the next few years. How much of it will be clawed back by bracket creep?
Liberal has voters like me.
Labor has voters with an IQ of over 100.
Smirk is not smirking as much now – has the look of death on his face at his press conference on TV.
Tabitha, your circuits appear to malfunctioning. You may want to reboot.
Right about the polls LTEP but don’t discount the betting markets all together. They polls reflect intention and the markets reflect “expectation”.
True they mirror the polls but they do tend to be leading indicator of the next poll as they seem to pick up the nuisances and shifts in sentiment more quickly.
LTEP – Oh dear, you really are the pessimist! The betting market does react to polling figures but I think it also reacts to the cumulative effect how how the party is travelling in regards to news in the media. If there is a preception the Libs are in trouble, then bets will be placed accordingly.
Chris B – You have a good point re: John Howard in 1996, but then he was relatively moderate during his first term (emphasis on relatively). It was only once re-elected that the serious neo-con knives started coming out.
I do think that Gittens could well end up being right in terms of Rudd’s innate conservatism and the constraints he has placed on the first Labor government in 11 years. I’m sceptical that Rudd will be the panacea that many think when it comes to social policy. But he does at least bring some long-term vision to a range of issues, something this country is crying out for.
Let It End – 369 – I think you meant ‘nuances’
Let It End: What’s has Labor shortened to? Need both the Labor and Coalition values to get an understanding of the probability of Labor winning. hehe
366
Does not compute
# 372. Oops, of course you are 100% right lol.
The ALP has come into $1.49 on Betfair.
I’m glad that we closed off our arbitrage on the election result just before the 58-42 Newspoll hit the news.
Now 1.42 on Centrebet Misty, may shorten more after listening to Costello
jim , yes, what howard said (and still is saying) is that interest rates would always be lower under a coalition govt than under labor.
and yes, current interest rates are still relatively “low”. but 1.5% rise translates into a lot of extra “burden” for people with any kind of reasonable-sized mortgage. enough of a “burden” for people to feel (whether legitimately or not) done over.
Albert @ 353
The best thing about all this is that he only has himself (and his gutless ‘Treasurer’) to blame for this, on at least a couple of grounds:
(1) took responsibility for keeping interest rates low – ’sound economic management’, ‘looking after battlers’ etc etc – and then proceeded to bribe his way into office repeatedly, which is exactly what you DON’T do if you’re interested in keeping rates low during a period of economic expansion (as the Smirk pointed out in the recent book)
(2) as others have noted, rattus didn’t call the election in time to avoid this fiasco, deciding to risk it in the hope that things would improve in the polling. This wasn’t just a flutter on tattslotto on Saturday night, though – this was walking into the Casino and putting the house, the wife, the kids and the Volvo on red #5. Which is pretty much how he’s run everything else.
These guys are total clowns, and it’s finally become apparent to all (including the highly entertaining Tabitha)
Jim 358
You’ve got it wrong on both counts:
No one says howard said there’d be no interest rate rises at all. What he said was that he would keep them at “record lows’. That means that he can’t wriggle out and say that he meant lower than they would be under labor cos he said a whole lot more than that.
Additionally, interest rates at the moment in Australia are on the upper end of the OECD average, so comparatively they’re actually high.
Jim @358. Rates are nominally low compared with the early 1990s (and early 1980s for that matter). But if you measure them in terms of how much household disposable income it takes to service average mortgage interest payments (how they FEEL), they have never been higher.
The level of household debt is such that each quarter percentage point rate rise today is the equivalent of a full percentage point in early 1990s terms. Given we have had nine rate increases since mid-2002 (with more to come), you can see how this might be hurting just a bit.
Of course, you could argue that it is a buyer-beware situation. Those households who have hocked themselves to high heaven could be said to have only themselves to blame. But since the Libs encouraged this recklessness while pledging in 2004 to “keep interest rates at record lows” (that is what their ads said, lest you argue otherwise), you could put together a good case that the baseball bats are out.
I guess Costello will say the economy is now like a F-111 rather than a well tune race car. The economy is going so fast, it needs a pilot with 10s of thousands of flying time to keep it managed well.
If anything, I think this shows the dire state of the Libs internal polling prior to the election being called. I don’t think they’d have taken a gamble on the rates rise if they thought they could go earlier and win comfortably.
misty @ 371 – if the ONLY thing that changed (reversed) under kevin rudd was the outrageous politicisation of the public service, then i’d be a happy camper. and i think he has a genuine commitment to that. or maybe i’m just way too gullible.
Yes Will (382), he might say that. Just before the ground avoidance radar system craps out and he hits the side of the mountain.
Yes, that was a key mistake ‘keeping interest rates at record lows’ – the other claim – always lower under labor, that gave him wriggle room.
It was funny to hear Mr. Howard claim a couple of months ago that it wasn’t him who’d said that… but the ad agency. At that moment, I knew he was in real trouble with that line. Labor should use it if they do another montage advertisement… record lows PLUS Howard blaming the agency… he certainly likes taking responsibility!
Another thing Howard never tells us is that interest rates have been around these levels since May 1992 even though he tries to spin it that something dramatically changed for the better once he was elected in March 1996. It didn’t.
http://www.rba.gov.au/Statistics/cashrate_target.html
that should be, of course, ‘always lower under Liberal’… getting ahead of myself!
Election advertising should clearly identify the source.
Recieved 2 flyers in my mailbox today, and you cannot tell who sent them unless you look at the authorisation (and even then you need to actually know who G. Jaeschke and T. Gatrell are. I know who they are, but i doubt most people do.)
Oh and so much for Labor not running negative advertsing. Lucky for them most people won’t know it came from them.
CL de F – 385 I always like the contradiction in Costello’s various comments about the state of the economy. On one hand, it’s strong, it’s robust, we’re ready to weather any storm. Then on the other hand, it’s a finely tuned Ferrari, ripping along, finely tuned and balanced , needing a careful hand on the wheel. Really, he is just full of crap.
The Liberals are already choosing the next Opposition Leader?
LMAO Shouldn’t they be spending more time saving a few of their safer seats?
Bobby Horry @ 333
Nope. The numbers DEMAND a response. The RBA has a pretty simple charter on this. Keep underlying inflation between 2-3%. If the result came in at .7% then they would have a good case not to raise (although they do look beyond just the past quarter). At .8% they would want to have evidence of slowing looking forward, at .9 and 1% like today the decision is pretty much made for them. There is no evidence of easing inflation on the horizon. Low unemployment is creating skilled labour shortages, and China just ain’t exporting deflation like they were previously (which is what really gave Howard the low rates he claims credit for). Only the strengthening dollar is giving signs of taking a couple of points off inflation through cheaper imports, but not enough to keep the lid on.
No the interest rate brake needs to be applied, and the earlier it is the better in the long run. Doing it in November on these numbers is completely apolitical and justifiable. To hold out for a month is not.
Alex McD @ 390 – Exactly. Today’s press conference was, by all accounts, a comedic performance par excellence. They’re really cactus now – two weeks of misery while they wait for the RBA to decide – during which time the pork will remain barrelled and Smirk and the rat will have to try to expalin why things f#@ked up. Even the MSM should be able to work it all out by now, surely!
That’s who I think it will be. But even if he does win his seat will still be marginal. I don’t think the Libs want another leader who is in a marginal seat.
Why would ANY Liberal support a guy who could’ve had the leadership in 1994, 1995, 2005, 2006 and 2007 but was too gutless to challenge?
This is hilarious coming from a guy who opposed the Accords, which were designed to kill inflation.
philopsephically speaking, when youre’ on the bum end of things there can be
1. a knockout blow
2. the death of a thousand papercuts
and it’s 2. For two weeks now, the campaign will be sidetracked by talk of interest rates (hello, Sawford formula?), while squeaky clean Rudd-style trudeaumania sweepeth the land and enchanteth the boys and girls. And then they’ll put rates up and it’ll interfere with the melbourne cup and that’ll just hack people off.
And then, come about November 15, when JWH has gone troppo to appeal to the last demographic standing (and since we’re reduced to asking if the Libs can hold Kooyong, God alone knows who that will be) it’ll be every incumbent for him/herself. And because there isn’t a centre-right party to bleed to (family first?), the anti-Lib vote jumps across the aisle. Pop.
Dolly is out with Malcolm Turnbull in Wentworth this afternoon – wow couldn’t think of a better endorsement!
Dolly & Malcolm, maybe they are plotting a coup – just like APEC.
Has anyone got pix or info?
Its strange to me that all those fiscal conservative zealots over at the GG and elsewhere have not yet starting screaching full throttle about the way this election is becoming a financial auction. For a country that has fetishised fiscal rectitude for a good part of the last 2 decades its strange that there hasnt been more resistance now that the floodgates have opened. I think history is going to view this period as one in which the riches and opportunity of the resources boom was effectively squandered on middle class welfare and tax cuts.
Howards plan is to combine a macro assault of pork to key broad demographics with a micro targeted assault on marginals. Money is being sprayed left right and centre. An incoming Rudd government is going to be encumbered by all of this in terms of spending options and most probably wearing the blame for the interest rate rises that will come off the back of it in the longer term. The only reason the MSM haven’t thrown the fiscal vandalism book at Labor so far is that they’ve followed the coalition plans. It remains to be seen how much longer they’l tolerate it. With more than a month to go this could get out of hand – the mind boggles at where the pork will go. In this sense the CPI figure today is good news cos it could be the equivalent of a cold bucket of water over Howard.
The only other possible positive out of it is that Howard could be in the middle of trashing his economic record for good. This will possibly give Labor more scope when in office to do its own thing and spare us having to sit through long diatribes by opposition leader bronwyn bishop about the halcyon days of the long lost howard govt.
391 Howard Hater Says: October 24th, 2007 at 3:26 pm
I don’t know why they’re bothering. The way they’re going, the next opposition leader is going to be Bob Brown.
LMFAO “Team Howard/Costello” is coming unstuck at a rapid rate.
What happened to the Rodent and Smirky doing joint campaign appearances across the country? Instead it’s Rodent and Hyacinth LOL
I wouldn’t be sure about the MSM: the Murdoch papers and the ABC are so wedded to Howard, I think they’ll stick with him to the bitter end, then claim on November 25 that it was a shock election result outcome.
He shoud’a called the election in August/September. The polls stopped him. He shoud’a resigned when Dolly told him. Hyacinth stopped him. Now he’ll take his Party to its greatest-ever defeat. Some legacy.
a Morgan thing: ALP vote jumped 4% in September. With a regional breakdown: the only place the governmeat leads is in country WA.
http://www.roymorgan.com/news/polls/2007/4231/
For the good of parliamentary democracy and government accountability, shouldn’t I be hoping for a decent sized Coalition opposition to keep the Rudd Government honest?
Nah! I want a frigging huge bloodbath on November 24, and the Liberal Party reduced to an irrelevant rump: the National Party, who cares?
Stop it, there haven’t been any votes cast yet
HH
Yeah, at the moment I’d be happy if the chamber was pretty much a sea of labor with bronwyn, barnaby and a couple of the wets sqeezed down in the corner…….
One provisio in all of this is the RBA still has one very big weather eye on the faltering US economy, which is taking in water fast. The US Federal Reserve next week is seen certain to cut rates for the second time since September, the only doubt being over the size of the move.
Petrol prices here are about to go up markedly as the crude price lingers around $US90 a barrel. While that is nominally inflationary, central banks these days seem to focus more on the consequences for growth.
And any unrest in the financial markets (we saw the Dow drop nearly 3 per cent in a single session last Friday) could muddy the waters as well.
All of those things have the capacity to derail a November rate rise and fuel the Coalition’s (admittedly laughable case) that they are a “safer pair of hands” in terms of economic “management” (whatever that means).
HH 402 – I too want to see Howard and the Libs absolutely annihlilated. But if Labor has a big majority, then Rudd has a problem with a lot of bored backbenchers making trouble for him. A comfortable majority would be OK.
LTEP @ 383
Exactly, so why so pessimistic? If the Rat thought he would win at any time since Dec last year (or August at least to avoid the half Senate election), then the election would have already been run and won.
He held on and played russian roulette with the RBA because his own polling was telling him what Morgan, ACN, Newspoll and Galaxy have been telling the rest of us all year – Ruddslide of biblical proportions. He would have held off even longer except the polling was obviously telling him that waiting til December would only make things worse. Now we find the RBA chamber is loaded, the trigger gets pulled on Nov 7, then BANG. It’s gonna be messy.
The vote is 5 weeks away and yet you left wingers are so full of hubris you already think the election is over based on 1 opinion poll if you persist with this hubris you will more than likely get a nasty surprise come election night!
402-404… sounds good. I’ll drink to that.
Glens here. I’m off…
Your claim of hubris lacks substance.
Will at 382 said:
“I guess Costello will say the economy is now like a F-111 rather than a well tune race car.”
Considering the unsustainable pork flying around, I guess All Tip is doing the dump and burn
They say that radio is a hot medium. This perception was reinforced on hearing The Man from Mayo Himself, Lord Diner of Baghdad, cutting loose with a full-blown Dummy Spit on Virginia T.’s radio show this morning.
I mean really and truly, how could Dolly have possibly interfered politically in the ex-Gitmo-ization of David Hicks? Lord Diner is an honourable man for goodness sakes!
Eddixinder sounded very testy indeed, as if someone had just asked him to eat dirt, or grovel or something terribly awful. I for one, think that it’s mean that Foreign Minister should bear any responsibility whatsoever after all he’s done for us.
Please don’t be upset, Minister, we are a truly grateful nation. When all is said and done, we simply arn’t worthy to be ruled by gentlemen who have been born to the thankless, lifelong duty of having greatness thrust upon.
Glen, I get the feeling no one is gonna be too surprised. Not even you.
So Glen… you’re predicting a Coalition win? By how many seats?
Glen, if Liberal HQ is already counting numbers for Howard’s successor, their own private polling must be showing they are in a heap of shit.
And, if the roles were reversed and the Liberals had a 16 point lead, you’d be crowing too.
Analysis of September face-to-face Morgan Polls finds that support for the Coalition was 36.5% (down 2% from August), while support for the ALP was 51.5% (up 4%).
Sean and John Rocket: are you blokes gonna be as drunk as me on election night?
Glen at 408 doing his impersonation of the Black Knight in Monty Python’s Holy Grail.
http://www.metacafe.com/watch/149502/monty_pythons_black_knight/
No i wouldnt be HH for the simple fact that the election isnt tomorrow and the people have not voted yet…the election would not be over if the Coalition was 10 points ahead it aint over till election night…i would show less hubris that the leftards of the blog that i guarantee you…
PC 412 – That’s good. In the air force the F-111 is known as ‘the pig’. That’s because it gets down close to the ground and has a lot of grunt.
Drunk is too mild a word. I expect at some stage I’m gonna get up on the table and drop my trousers. Its gonna be one of those kind of nights
Some of you are getting WAY ahead of yourselves.
Talking up three terms FFS…!
Labor may win, but its no sure thing yet.
Time to talk a chill pill.
More like a Dons Party Sean and HH you could just as easily be weeping into your beers than celebrating for this election is far from lost….
Sean 422 – Yes, I think I might partake of a tipple tonight!
Just saw Rudd ripping into Costello in a press conference on Sky.
Said that Costello did an academy award winning act in distancing himself from responsibility of rate rises after ignoring 16 separate warnings from the RBA .
Was an extremely good performance by Rudd, he is actually growing and getting better as the campaign unfolds. Made a fool of Costello, yeah I know it’s not hard.
I say again, Howard will not last the length of the campaign.
Stop showing hubris about other people showing hubris.
Why is this so hard for everyone to understand and remember? The $4bil for oldies was money from *before* the election was called. It is government money, NOT an election promise. The reason Rudd doesn’t have to match it is that he gets it as a freebie. 99% of the news sites, tv programs and all people like us reading and listening to them seem to have forgotten this in 24 hours. This $4bil is a **own-goal** by Howard. Had he offered it as an election promise, that would have been different.
Glen, you and the Smirk must both be on that stuff they’re handing out at Lib HQ. Please share your election night predictions with us!
ShowsOn that is rank meta-hubris.
ShowsOn
Stop showing hubris about other people showing hubris about other people showing hubris.
ShowsOn at 427 said:
“Stop showing hubris about other people showing hubris.”
You know it’s really going pear shaped when we hit hubris squared.
Glen, is dropping your trousers ’showing hubris’. If so my apologies.
This is the time for Rudd to tear down government claims of economic superiority.
He can show how the government has had absolutely no idea about how to deal with inflation in a growing economy.
He can say that it shows 10 years of neglect when we should’ve been investing in infrastructure. Fixing our ports, building water and power sources to sustain the economy into the future.
Costello claims that the 1996 and 1997 budgets shielded our economy from the Asian financial crisis. But it was at those budgets that $1 billion was taken from education, and the price of university degrees were all increased, some of them were nearly tripled.
Ten years later we are feeling the effects of that short sightedness.
Rudd can use this inflation increase to bring his entire argument together.
That all depends on what’s underneath sean.
Jim @ 423
Save your breath. They will not listen to you. They are sure Labor will cruise into government and are in for a huge embarassment if that doesn’t eventuate. Imagine the ammunition the other side will be handed for the next 3 years!
LTEP – you’re only given one set of walnuts in your life, you might as well stick ‘em on the table when you have the chance.
I think it is funny that during non-election years, the government attacks people on disability support pention as being full of people faking back injuries. But once an election campaign is on increasing their power and phone supllement from $100 to $500 is par for the pork barrelling course.
Yes, Tim Blair is gonna be doing a lot of cutting and pasting from this thread LTEP. We’ll never live it down…
Actually last election he did just that with Christopher SHeils blog.
LTEP – I wouldn’t worry too much about taunting over the next 3 years. If Labor doesn’t win this election they will never be in power again.
Youve summed it up nicely possum! I suspect LTEP rarely gets his walnuts out.
Howard is gone, he’s outsmarted himself by far trying to wedge Rudd and just keeps kicking own goals.
The $4B pensioner fund is just another one. Howard set all these “pre-election” stunts up thinking he could catch Rudd out as fiscally irresponsible in making additional election promises but it is all backfiring on him.
Rudd has always out thought Howard and he always will. Costello is just a dill on the sidelines and the gaggle of reporters are finally starting to see it unfold all too clearly.
I can see the press turning viscously on Howard over the next 4 weeks and it will be nearly as enjoyable to watch as election night.
Best bet for post-election Liberal leader, given the need for some experience and a safe-ish seat: Wilson Tuckey. He’ll be one of half a dozen left in the party.
It is about time the media came clean and ran the true story of the ’smoke and mirrors’ BS that the LNP have been good economic managers.
They need to point out clearly that our economic strength comes from:
1. hawke/keasting reforms
2. global boom
And the great failing of the Howard govt {backed now by many economists} is starving the States and failing to invest surpluses in the right areas. Basically – wasting our prosperity. AND that they never had control of our interest rates.
Possum, your current prediction for seat count on November 24?
If you’re so willing to put your ‘walnuts’ on the table.
Now now kids don’t gang up on poor old LTEP. I suspect any day now an upgraded prediction is coming … You gonna give us something LTEP ?
Hot off the press from the Reuters poll of market economists:
SYDNEY, Oct 24 (Reuters) – Australia’s central bank will
almost certainly raise interest rates at its next policy meeting
in November as it strives to control an alarming acceleration in
inflation, say economists.
A Reuters poll of 25 analysts taken on Wednesday produced an
80 percent chance of a rise in the Reserve Bank of Australia’s
(RBA) 6.5 percent cash rate. The central bank meets on Nov. 6 and
its decision will be announced the following day.
The sense of inevitability followed an unexpectedly sharp
rise in the RBA’s core measures of inflation, reported earlier on
Wednesday. Average underlying inflation climbed
0.95 percent while the annual pace hit 3 percent, the very
ceiling of the central bank’s 2 to 3 percent target range.
“It is very likely the RBA now will feel the need to take out
some further insurance against unacceptably high ongoing
inflation down the track,” said Rory Robertson, an interest rate
strategist at Macquarie Bank.
The market seemed to agree, with futures showing around an 84 percent chance of a hike to an 11-year high of 6.75 percent next month. Investors were also pricing in a real chance of a second move to 7 percent by the end of March.
I’m predicting 147 seats to Labor.
Anyone care for a crushed walnut?
We have to revel in the last month of Liberals in Power. Revel in it! Really… let’s say (time to close your eyes and block your ears… Glen… adult talking hubris now…)… Rudd wins – minimum 9-12 years in power. Right wing party of tomorrow takes over… probable period in power… 9-12 years…
It could be 18-24 years until we have another month like this one, we have to enjoy this period, I’m talkin’ to you LTEP! Just relax, be happy and enjoy.
Ashley, is that your serious prediction? I’m going to take note of it if so.
glen , i’ll be weeping into my beer but it’ll be tears of joy. i’ll be seriously guilty of Schadenfreude.
148
Could be worse, he could be an antechinus.
I’ll stick by my 6.4% swing and 53.5% TPP resulting in a 20 seat majority to ALP even though am now seeing that as conservative.
I feel like Ive stumbled into the Collingwood dressing room at half time in the 1970 grand final.
Carlton’s extraordinary inability to trouble the scorers in Round 19 suggested “a discrepancy between the teams was virtually insurmountable. ”
HALF TIME: Collingwood 10.13 (73); Carlton 4.5 (29)
It’s all over.
Except………… Carlton win by 10 points.
How embarassment.
Pride comes before the fall people.
340
Kina Says:
Fraser froze mortgage rates at 13% otherwise they would have been around 17%
Probably more like 19%. The highest the 90 Day RBA bank bill rate got to under Hawke/Keating was 19.56%, compared to Howard’s 21.39%. Also, the lowest rates got to under H/K Labour was 4.78%, and under treasurer Howard it was 7.65%.
362
Matthew Sykes Says:
The UK government is instituting a massive privatisation program of the local NHS Trusts, which is being driven by ‘target’ and profit mad insurance companies, and will be a major disaster.
371
Misty Says:
Chris B – You have a good point re: John Howard in 1996, but then he was relatively moderate during his first term (emphasis on relatively).
His budget slashing wasn’t moderate. For example, he gutted the public dental budget, which has had serious long term consequences, and caused a lot of suffering.
400
alpal Says:
He shoud’a called the election in August/September. The polls stopped him. He shoud’a resigned when Dolly told him. Hyacinth stopped him. Now he’ll take his Party to its greatest-ever defeat. Some legacy.
He should of resigned a year ago and gone out a conservative hero. It was his ego that stopped him. If you want to see a real example of hubris, his refusal to get out while the getting was good is it. And speaking of which…
Glen’s here! Time for our daily dose…
HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS
And a couple of spares
HUBRIS HUBRIS.
Hawke on Agenda.
Bob Hawke on Agenda now – SkyNooz with David Spears
on hubris: people don’t want the Liberals to win. Not a single piece of evidence says they will, that there is the publcic will of this to happen, and to assume that something will magically appear and reverse the situation is an ironically large dose of hubris in and of itself. To predict an ALP landslide isn’t hubris now – it would have been a year ago.
No. I think that’s based on the idea that this isn’t a replay of 2004. You’d know if it was. You’d know because the gap would be 53-47 and Kevin Rudd wouldn’t be greeted in Melbourne like he had just fished Jesus out of a volcano.
LTEP – the same as it was here on 26th September.
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/?p=590&cp=4#comment-42885
“…the only maths you’ll need this year is 60+29=89″
Glen, you and your ilk got hot flushes when the Galaxy came out showing a Labor win by 23 seats. Hell, when your hopes depend on a poll like that you know you are going bad. What did you say your seat prediction for a coalition win was again?
Turnbull must know that the game is up, he has just chucked 10 million at Murdoch`s nephew for a whiz bang rain making ruse.You can`t make this stuff up and they claim they are the good economic managers.
Glen,
Max would be proud of you.
http://www.slashfilm.com/2007/07/10/get-smart-teaser-movie-trailer/
Ok, so we’ve now got Let it End giving the ALP 95 seats.
I’m giving them 70 seats.
Any other predictions? I’m with Bolt on this one… you have to put something forward and then live up to it after the election.
83-65 to Labor with our two jackaroos holding on.
Kina, I think that history will pretty much see it that way. Howard has always had a modicum of credibility because it has suited his backers in business and the media to construct the mythology around him. As others have noted the aust public never really liked him.
Once the emperor loses his clothes its not going to be a pretty site. His powerful backers will abandon him soon I suspect. History will see him as having squandered the resources boom, and the craven manouverings of wedge politics will not look good to posterity. The final chapter of the book – the electoral pasting he’s about to receive will taint his legacy further and be the perfect post script. Thats why I’m keen for him to get wiped out – cos it will deligitimise his decietful and manipulative political modus operandi (which is essential..if we’re not going to have to endure another Howard in the future.)
I think in desperation and true to form he’s in the middle of trashing his economic credibility and by the end of the next 4 weeks might have finished the job.
95-52-3
Labor has big nutcracker
Liberal has exposed walnuts
It’s not hubris, it’s the future…
The following broadcast has been detected through a worm hole in space, (there’s the damn inverterbrate again!), and it comes from a few weeks in the future, and some experts think it’s the Melbourne Cup being called:
“…just two furlongs to go and Rodent’s Rear End is falling down the field, Mandarin Moment is way out in front, Bracket Creep’s looking tired but whoa! What’s this? Even Steven’s crushing Bracket Creep to the fence…he’s down, Bracket Creep is over, Rodent’s Rear End is bringing up the rear and oh, dear, he’s fallen on top of Bracket Creep and Mandarin Moment, the crowd’s favourite is five length’s in front as he crosses the finish line!”
Hang on, we’ve just confirmed it’s a bit later than that, in fact that’s the official vote counting from the tally room on November 24th.
Ladies and gentlemen, Rodent’s Rear End and Bracket Creep have just been put down, and Mandarin Moment is on a victory lap.
I thought for most of this year it would be a Labor win by about 10 seats, until the last couple of weeks, now I think it will be about 15, maybe 20.
I think LTEP’s posts deserve greater respect. I have been reading his contributions over many months and it seems to me that all all he is doing is calling it as he sees it. He should be allowed to wait until the final week of the campaign if he wants to alter his current (pessimistic) prediction of a narrow Australian Labor Party loss. Frankly, I find his contributions as worthy as the much praised Possum.
mike_f – who is your third independent?
I’m holding to the Mumble line: “and no, it won’t be close”.
78-70 ALP
http://www.abc.net.au/elections/federal/2007/
pancho: the dude in Forrest. I hear the coalition candidate is a bit crap there. Also, I don’t know about the situation in Calare, but then I think nobody does. I guess that’ll be determined by who comes third.
Liberal Party Philosphy:
Where the LIE becomes the TRUTH and the TRUTH becomes the LIE.
ALP 85 – 53.5% 2pp
They’ll have a big lead in the polls with 2 weeks to go, say 55/45, but voters will worry about giving away a huge majority so 1 or 2% will drift back to Howard by polling day.
Howard to hold Bennelong by 500 votes (but immediately resign)
Turnbull to hold Wentworth by 100 votes
and the saddest story of all… Pyne to hold Sturt by 2% 51/49
David
LTEP is welcome to his views. The problem is more that he wants to censure others in their exhuberant desire to put their walnuts on the table.
I’d love it to be a wipe out – but… I predict that the ALP will win around 90 seats. Here’s to you, posterity!
John Rocket — I’m with you. It’s going to be absolutely priceless, and if you’re too busy worrying about Howard’s rabbits you’re going to miss out.
LTEP —
Labor 147
Libs 0
Nats 0
Indep 3
I’m being conservative, so I’ve given the independents 3. Or should I go out on a limb and give you the Coalition’s worst case scenario?
I hope William makes a post in late November called: what you said was going to happen. Should make for some interesting reading
No hubris, just the unmistakable smell of death.
If you’re working on the campaign keep working hard, stuffing those letter boxes and remember to be happy and smiling when you hand out the how to vote cards on the 24th. But don’t lose sleep about some Rat of the Undead rising from the ashes. It would take an astronomical stuff up from Rudd to even get Club Vermin back in with a sniff.
Tim Blair can cut and paste what he likes, it won’t change the fact he’s a prat. The cut and pasting will be going the other way frankly. This Rat has been dead for a while now. Just no one has buried the corpse yet.
Mr Denmore, agreed the RBA will be looking at the US, but realistically what are the odds of anything happing there making a difference to their deliberations on Nov 6? 2%? Every time the market loses a couple of percent due to shocks on Wall St they get em back with interest next week. The Fed in reducing rates is reacting to a completely different set of circumstances that the RBA is. The Reserve will be focused first and formost on preventing an inflation blowout. You’d know more than I about that, but I don’t see too much reason to suspect the US situation is going to reduce inflation pressures here. Our economy is getting close to overheating and I doubt the board would gamble on US problems slowing it down (maybe) when they have the responsibility to give the brakes a jab.
New Liberal Party website.
http://www.lies.com/
ashley
LOL
Can anyone confirm that Labor has candidates running in 147 seats… otherwise my prediction of 147 seats to Labor may be optimistic.
HAHHAHAHAHA!
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/common/imagedata/0,,5717439,00.jpg
INFLATION IS FINE! BLACK IS WHITE! BLAH! I GIVE UP!
Ashley
Stop it!!
They have 150 candidates.
Fair enough Sean (478). In my experience, bona fide pessimists (and I believe LTEP is one of them), are well informed optimists! You can make of that observation what you will, but it will be interesting to see whether there is any swing back to the Coalition late in the campaign. All the available evidence suggests that is very unlikely but who knows, Mr. Rudd might indulge himself in a ‘birthday cake moment’. In my opinion, that is what it is going to take for the Coalition to prevail. We will see.
Government’s Union Scare Campaign
I understand that the Government is still distributing pamphlets with the 70% union officials claim, which has since been proven false. I also heard the PM on AM radio this morning making the same claim.
Is this something the electoral comission should be looking into?
David (489): Kevin Rudd could take to wearing a tiara and ask to be addressed as Princess Amanda. He could transport Julia Gillard to press conferences riding horsey and humming the theme to Bonanza. Which is to say, match the coalition meltdown drip for drip. Otherwise…?
On matters of electoral authorisation – there’s a monster billboard on the monster truck racetrack otherwsie known as the Monash Freeway in Melb – ‘Labor would be a disaster for the economy’ blah blah – are these thibns supposed to be authorised by someone? ‘cos this one isn’t … anyone an expert on such matters?
I want to see Howard and The Gimp slaughtered. Then the Libs tear themselves apart and spend 15-20 years in the political wilderness. Why………Workchoices!
Possibly Rudd is going to win so big that he could dispense with parliament and institute a trade union socialist autocracy populated by chardonay elites, dogooders, hippies, artists and the welfare dependent .. Janet albretchsen and Gerard Henderson could do the cleaning…Sorry LTEP
“Pyne to hold Sturt by 2% 51/49″
Saying that he loses, and Mia Handshin, Kate Ellis and Nicole Cornes win, who will get that house seat right behind Rudd in the camera’s line of sight?
Chasers latest – 100% of unions are controlled by unionists
You need to review your maths, I said a 20 seat majority which is 84/64 not 95
Although I’m also keen for a Labor win, there’s something a bit sad about all of the carry on in this forum about massive wins etc with still 4.5 weeks to go.
#492 – the authorisation is probably in print far too tiny to read from a car (I don’t think there’s any law saying how large the font size of the authorisation has to be).
YAY! Rudd has came out laying blame squarely on the government making a point that they’ve had many of warnings from the RBA about capacity constraints.
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,22640999-29277,00.html
Rudd knows what to say re rates and inflation.
http://www.smh.com.au/news/business/fears-of-more-than-one-rate-rise/2007/10/24/1192941112670.html
The media did come clean on it this afternoon for the first time. Bob Hawke was on Agenda with David Spears and Spears let him tell the whole story and nothing but the whole story. Hawke even told the exact amount of the budget defecit he inherited from the outgoing Liberal treasurer
as he was briefed on it on his first day in office and he was also told that there had never been a bigger defecit in Australian history. He said ‘we had to fix it’ and ‘fix it we did’. Spears sat back and let him say it all 
:):)
I don’t know if this is so true, but here’s my bit of pop-psych before I go get something to eat:
If you live in Australia, New Zealand, the UK, the USA and then some, you are raised on the idea of a welfare state, of a New Deal, etc, etc. Not in a pejorative sense, but in a sense of cradle-to-the-grave education, health, etc. Labour laws, a 40 hour working week, etc, etc – [icture striking workers in cloth hats with billboard being whacked by policemen on horseback. The elecotral division you live in is more likely than not to be named after an explorer, pioneer, social radical or somesuch. Think of stories of battlers on wharves, and the like. It’s part of the Australian myth (again, not in the pejorative sense). And Workchoices is a betrayal of that story. Australia has a very strong idea of what it is. A land carved by blahblah hard working blahblah and a fair go for all, amen.
Which is to say: IT’S NOT THE ECONOMY, stupid.
Take your pick, they’re all fiiiiiiiinnnnnnnnneeeee.
Ellis is the senior hot member from S.A., so it’s hers to lose.
Well I did say there would still be 3 independents, so I think you’re drawing a long bow there. Next thing you know Glen will be accusing me of hubris.
Will at 500
That press release looked like a precursor for something.
I smell a joint Premiers/Rudd presser coming up with a huge infrastructure program where the States take on half the expenditure.
Double the bang for half the budget pressure.
David Charles
Certainly not having a go at LTEP, good contributor, but surely the Labor lose by 5 thing is just having a bet each way. When Labor wins will he say “I always knew they’d get up”, and the prediction is just an insurance policy in case of disaster? Anyone who has wished for the Rodent to get his just deserts for some time has to be scarred, so it’s completely understandable, but like Possum and others I’m prepared to put the crown jewels down.
LTEP – 85 minimum for Labor has been my tip for a while and I think it’s conservative. I’d be happy with 75 though.
Ashley @ 480,
Making predictions along the lines of the early Canadian election in the 90’s is bold ……. I think that there will be a huge sweep but don’t think that those entrenched like Nelson, for example, will be turfed out even in the current climate …..
Just loved Bob Hawkes suggestion to Howard that he should divert some of his road funding promises to the Syrian Govt to reimburse them for him wearing out their “road to Damascus” with all his late minute conversions.
David
Re “Bonn fide pessimists are well informed optimists”
I can see what you mean but I’d substitute ‘pesimist’ with scepticist
Ie Bonna fide scepticists are well informed optimists. There’s nothing objective about pessimists – they’re just routinely negative. Scepticism on the other hand implies a willingness to be embrace doubt in lieu of finding the truth (to use a quaint old expression).
In LTEP case, I think if he was sceptical he would still be able, based on the facts, to reach a fairly balanced and objective view that Labor are going to win in a canter – and therefore be able to contemplate getting up on the table in a drunken romp on election night etc as many of us are committed to doing
Possum: Sounds plausible, an it would ‘Stop the blame game’ and show that the Labor governments can work together. Brilliant!
165
Swing Lowe Says:
October 24th, 2007 at 12:15 pm
- “EXCEPT Howard took credit for lower interest rates in 2004. This is his problem – it was wrong for him to take credit back then and it is wrong to blame him for the rise now – but as they say, “If you live by the sword, you die by the swordâ€.”
IMO this just blows Costelloe’s credibility out of the water. He can’t say, “I’m not responsible for this”and then say that he’s got a good track record.. like the elephant said to the mouse “Snookered, pal”
I’d love to be Swan on Tuesday “Let’s not take credit for the past over which we had no control. Let’s have policies for the future, and be prepared to meet the ups and downs as they come”
A marginal seat profile on Skynooz just caught my eye – Petrie.
It’s interesting that the first issue the ALP candidate mentioned was the “water shortage”.
Rudd has only announced some small biccies policy on this so far.
But that ALP lass in Petrie isnt the first Qld ALP candidate I’ve heard talk about the water shortage as an issue right up there with Workchoices.
Looks like a fairly considerable Rudd promise is in the pipeline (pardon the pun)
Hawke also suggested this about a Republic down the road [and since he has Rudd's ear in some respects, I am sure Rudd will listen too]
Suggested framing the question when it comes {and Rudd has promised it is coming} in the form of a sleeper clause in the constitution.
1. Are in favor of a Republic if that Republic wouldn’t come into existence until the end of the current monarch’s reign? {So keeping Elizabeth however long that is and then going Republic at that point}
He has to wait until after then election, then he can blame anything and everythign on Howard!
Rudd will counter, and blame it on Costello’s gutlessness / dickheadery.
506 Possum
There was always going to be a BIG joint state/federal co-operative federalism announcement on infrastructure to counter Howard’s blame game and wall to wall Labor Govt’s. It will involve very big co-operative announcements on Health, Education, Water and Energy for climate change. Will be the final nail in the coffin IMO.
I think things could get out of hand on Tuesday. The thing with Costello is his sense of entitlement is huge as is his brewing mortification at the way he has been used and abused by Howard. It makes for a highly unstable cocktail – as you saw when he attended the debate, when interviewed by Barry Cassidy last sunday etc. On the 7:30 report last night he again disgraced himself by saying who would you prefer me or (snivelling smirk) Wayne swan. I get the feeling this interest rate rise and the fact that Swan’s going to belt him over the head with it could push the smirk into some pretty unhinged behaviour.
Howard’s scare campaign on all Labor governments is completely bogus. A good federal government should be able to co-operate with the states irrespective of whether it is Liberal or Labor. It makes just as much sense that we should kick Howard out for being unable and unwilling to co-operate with state and territory Labor governments.
Let it End – I’ve thought the same thing.
Now what week of the campaign do you reckon would give it the biggest electoral bang for the buck?
2nd last?
My wife has spotted the great man Hawkie at the Five Dock (Sydney) shops, huge crowd (as ever) around the great man!
515 Let It End – It only mkaes sense for Rudd to do this. Would that put the cat among the pigeons or what?
I’m cautiously optimistic about Nov. 24, much more so that a lot of my other ‘leftie’ friends (mainly due to the excellent work of Possum). One of the main fears to people my age (27/28) is that Howard has been in power the entire time we’ve been eligible to vote. We’ve wanted him gone every single time, but he’s gotten over the line, or moved the posts (ala-Tampa) every single time so far.
Interestingly, my father reports that he’s just been polled, and he lives in Aston…deep morgage-belt, ‘conservative values’ territory. Could the swing really be on in Melbourne?
Anyhoo, all of these developments will certainly put the spring in my step for tonights’ letterboxing (for the Greens
. Got invited in for dinner last night, but not really surprising in my area (fed. seat of Melbourne).
Hawke also brings out the crowds in WA – hence his use at the launch of Gary Gray’s campaign in Brand.
He was also used to good effect in the last WA State Election campaign as well.
I notice WA libs have been very quiet about the federal poll – not surprising considering the approval ratin g of it’s leader
I’m on LTEP’s (BTW presume you were CTEP) side. My brother-in-law who’s a CA still goes on about interest rates being higher under Labor and that the Libs are better at managing the economy. If he does not understand interest rates and see the benefits of the Hawke-Keating reforms, how can we convince the lay voter. The polls figures are sometimes too good to be true. I just hope it’s not the work of some hackers!
Looks like Rudd called on the right past PM to help him out. Latham chose Whitlam and that scared people and Keating still has a bad name outside of the party faithful. Hawke’s is willingness to kick the boot in to Howard is just fantastic. He also helps break down the whole union bosses are bad for the economy theory.
Frank Calabrese – “I notice WA libs have been very quiet about the federal poll – not surprising considering the approval rating of it’s leader.” Same here in Victoria.
Oh, and to follow up on my post, can people see Hawkie saying ‘Any boss who sacks his employees for not turning up on Monday is a bloody bum’ if there is a win for the ALP on Nov 24?
Ashley: 147 seats for Labor is rather unlikely, but I love your optimism.
More sober prediction:
ALP 79
COALITION 68
INDEPENDENTS 3(including Forrest).
JC at 522,
You’ll be interested to know that every second or third day I seem to get about 10-20 emails from the residents of safe and safe-ish seats in Victoria (just like Aston, but also Kooying, Goldstein, Higgins and Casey) telling me they’ve just been polled, or that their neighboour/relative/friend etc has just been polled.
And what makes it interesting is that its usually internal polling (if the company name of the pollster wasn’t given, you can usually tell by the questions).
So both sides of politics are thinking something is up way down in Mexico.
Don’t you just love these polls conducted by the GG?
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22073824-5013404,00.html
Will someone please shoot the next person who claims that Australian interst rates are low?
According to the OECD, the following countries have higher rates than Australia:
Hungary
Iceland
Mexico
New Zealand
Indonesia
South Africa
Everyone else in the OECD has lower rates.
Apart form a couple of good rugby nations I see very little in that group to recommend it, in terms of economic success. The UK, the rest of Europe, Scandinavia, the US, everyone has higher rates.
This is according to the Q2-07 data. Our rates have risen once since then altready, and that’s not counting the Nov rate rise that looks very likely.
http://stats.oecd.org/wbos/default.aspx?querytype=view&queryname=86
NZ and Iceland make the list because of “mining boom” type problems – namely dairy and oil respectively.
Aarghhh – everyone else has “lower” rates, of course..
Sportsbet – Labor $1.38 Coalition $3.00
Yeah, see, I know all online polls are degrees of dumb but out of the these polls – I think this coredata one is the best, insofar as you can’t run a script to vote/vote/vote. You could still flush your cookies but… you can’t cheat this one easily. Having said that it’s still meaningless.
HH — you’re right.
Upon more sober consideration I’ve revised my estimate to 146. Nicole Cornes will fail to win her seat after she tells reporters she is planning on voting for Howard again because “he can keep interest rates low”.
Possum@513 : My 78yo dad lives in Petrie (Redcliffe) and he senses that Beattie’s council mergers will be a factor there – as he says, “Silly old buggers! They don’t like the council, they just care about keeping the name.”
It can get like that in Qld… anyway he expects Gambaro to hang on, much against his wishes.
Just out of curiousity, has the fall out for the Libs been reflected in Bennelong yet?
“Well, well, aren’t the chickens coming home to roost for Howard. What an economic vandal he has been for this nation “!!!
Gambaro may hold on in Redcliffe but she is being creamed everywhere else. She’s toast.
Mia Handshin,Kate Ellis and Nicole Cornes are indeed very feminine examples of SA politics…….but they don’t quite cut it with the Lib variety.
Lord Downer and Mr Pyne are still the feminine heavyweights of that quaint place we call Adelaide.
Ta ruawake, Dad will be pleased
Lindsay Voter @ 524 – I agree with your comments – I’m a CPA in a finance department full of CPA’s & CA’s & its staggering to note their lack of understanding of our economy & their “blind” intention to vote Liberal.
Though I also suspect they may historically be Liberal voters (for either class or the fact that parents have always voted that way) & no matter what evidence you throw at them, they’d never change for fear of betraying their perceived class or family tradition.
Did the RBA push up mortgage interest rates today?
Anyone.. Theres been a lot of comments about the issue so Im thinking maybe something happened today. I’m thinking we wont hear anything till the RBA Board meet in Nov..but I’m often wrong.
Bluebottle @ 543,
No – the RBA won’t push up interest rates until it meets on 6th November, with the decision as to whether interest rates remain steady or go up by 0.25% coming out on the morning of the 7th.
Thank you Swing Lowe- your always on the money [accurate].
Meantime, I wonder what the Hicks Fix will do; maybe do alittle damage to one of the Coalition’s trump cards [National security:Terrorism] which Rudd carefully danced around on debate night_ held my breath hoping and praying he took a zero tolerance, march em out and shoot em approach, and he did.. phew !!
Channel Eddy is reporting the RBA is definitely planning to up interest rates on Nov 6th, oops JWH, nowhere to hide on that one… Bluebottle runs his highlighter through outer suburban mortgage belts seats JWH has collected since 1996.. interesting.
Let it End
You said earlier that Howard will not go the distance.
I wonder if it goes something like this: The Liberal Party knew Howard was its only chance at winning this election. Costello unelectable. Fly in ointment. John’s crook. OK. Prop him up, win election, election night big speech reveal all, retire, pass to … er, anyone. The hero retires hurt. Much clapping and bowing to the great master.
If Interest Rates rise on November 3, i presume the advertisements with JWH bombasting in Parliament that “working families have never been better off” will make quite a splash from Nov 4 to 24th.
i was watching Parliament that fateful day earlier in the year when Howie blurted it out and i don’t know who was more shocked, Me,the Labor frontbench or the helpless schmuck Tip sitting behind the PM.
It truly was a stupid thing to say, especially in Parliament.
Just perfect material for a campaign ad, and esp now with 2 rate rises since .
As Lib hack office would say…..Hubris
Ch 9 news, Laurie Oakes, has just shown another of Howard’s “senior moments” where he announced his skills plan through to 1916
Let it End @ 497
“You need to review your maths, I said a 20 seat majority which is 84/64 not 95″
Sorry, I think I’m getting confused. Do we count the independents as neglible in an ‘x seat majority’? If so your statement of 84/64 would be fine. Otherwise we’d need to say, the ALP wins 84 seats which gives them 18 seats over the others combined.
If we did exclude the independents we’d get a sitaution where, in the even that the ALP wins 75 seats, the Coalition would have 73, and we’d term it a 2 seat majority, when in fact they don’t have a majority of the seats at all.
I always thought it made more sense just to imagine independents siding with the Opposition, making it the case that winning 76 seats gave you a 2 seat clear majority. This would make your prediction of a 20 seat majority, an ALP win of 85 seats.
I’m a maths graduate so I really should have known my original number was wrong! That’s what you happen when you switch your brain off.
Silly Old Coot launching his odd skills training thingy for the ADF: “That looks like a fancy bit of equipment …”
546 Derek
LOL, I was more thinking along the lines he will simply unravel and they will reduce his role as the campaign progresses.
Actually I was thinking Costello would gradually take over fronting the campaign but honestly, after some of that crazy talk of his today, I doubt there is an economist tonight that doesn’t think he’s unravelled already.
LTEP
When you switch your brain off you also think that Howard will win. He cannot.
TAS, Vic and NSW will give Rud victory, then SA, then QLD. WA is irrelevant.
ruawake, we’ll see in 5 weeks time. I still don’t have a seat count prediction from you I don’t think.
LTEP @ 549.
Nah, switching your brain off is good, it’s how you get a job at The Oz (Mr Meganomics excepted)
LTEP
Check my posts, Labor seats will have a 1 in front and I don’t mean 10.
So I’ll put you down for 100 seats?
I just enjoyed hearing a soundbit of rattus telling us that our greatest mistake was getting rid of tech high schools. He was launching something to give kids ‘military technical skills’ to help the many who wish to pursue a career in the military. I think it costs a couple of hundred mill. Having enjoyed a brief and inglorious military career myself, i wonder how many kids actually want to learn how to jumpstart an Abrams tank. OK, I guess a few. I also guess it fits in with his back to the future ‘vision’ for the education revolution. Can the chaser guys get the de lorean back out tonight?
LTEP
25 seat majority yep.
549
LTEP, well I said I was being conservative so to end all confusion I’ll up it to 85/63 with 2 independents to arrive at 20 clear majority, how’s that.
In any case it is still far from the 95 you quoted me as saying. From info I have I am very confident of 85 but don’t even dream of 95.
FWIW, can I put it on the record that the ALP will win 89 seats, the independents will get back and the coalition will have 59. Rattus will get the big A.
I’ve got Labor with 81 seats. I say that very hesitantly, as I do not want to tempt fate. But with these sorts of polls, you can’t go past some form of Labor victory.
Btw, I think it will be NSW, Vic and SA leading the way, with the rest being filler. WA will be irrelevant (as usual…)
Don’t know whether you guys caught this, but some classic quotes from Hawke:
http://news.ninemsn.com.au/article.aspx?id=308862
For what its worth, I have Labor currently at 79 seats.
537 Julie – “Just out of curiousity, has the fall out for the Libs been reflected in Bennelong?”
No Julie not according to Spotsbet anyway. McKew is at $2.70. Howard $1.38
#548 Let It End
Yes, I noticed that Senior Moment. It was during the announcement of some Defence initiative where he promised the benefits would flow through to 1916.
So he’s brought defence into the 20th century. If only he could bring IR out of the 19th century.
Had a look at those Morgan state-wide voting intentions for September. Wow! all the eastern states and SA are showing over 50% Labor primary! SA country is showing a higher Labor support than SA metro – maybe Grey is on the table after all. I suspect water is the big issue there.
What’s wrong with those pikers in the West? Only about 36 there.
My prediction:
Labor 86
Coalition 61
Others 3
Greens holding the balence of power in the Senate
Beautiful
Oops, balance
Turnbull defends $10m rain harvest experiment
http://abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/10/24/2068415.htm?section=justin
Gotta have a whinge. Why when both Rudd and Swan (tho’ I do wish he’d stop rushing what he’s saying and deliver it in a more measured way), then Rudd comes out to slap down the NT Minister saying the NT intervention is bad. It just s***s me, as it so clearly was/is an ill thought out, hamfisted and totally stupid thing to do – not to mention unbelievable expensive and costs blowing out already. Surely Rudd has access to people who could advise him how to handle this differently without getting wedged? I can certainly think of any number of ways and I’m no political advisor. Glad I got that off my chest and thanks for listening if you did.
Harry, personally I found the NT minister’s comments silly. The fact is, at long last we have some real action going on. There are lots of negatives involved (and probably more than the positives) but, if followed up on postively, I think the NT intervention could have good results.
Note that although children have been given medical checks, funding has not been committed to ensure the problems found in the medical consultations can be dealt with. Housing still remains a huge problem.
Cost is not an option, in my opinion. It’s criminal the situation our Indigenous people find themselves in. The government has failed to act for 11 years and I hope any future ALP government is a lot faster.
The NT Minister may whine about the intervention, but they’ve failed the Indigenous people too. Put their money where their mouths are and prove they’re up to the task of sorting out the problem.
Let it End
So, he did say 1916! Not just me having a senior moment!
This is not good. Prognosis?
Thank you LTEP, you’re a bonzer person for bothering to respond and yes some of your response is exactly what I was on about. Agree cost is not an option, but that it needs to be targetted. There’s no point in spending huge amounts of cash on basic medical screening if people are living 10 to 20 to a dwelling, and there’s no follow up effective intervention or treatment for people with identified problems. I’ll stop now, because I just get so cross about this political system, and still can’t help myself from wanting the most resounding, humiliating defeat for (goodness, had to pause, wanting to invoke nasty invective!) – them.
Note that although children have been given medical checks,…
Local doctors and researchers with decades of experience are saying the med checks are woefully inadequate.
The NT Minister may whine about the intervention, but they’ve failed the Indigenous people too. Put their money where their mouths are and prove they’re up to the task of sorting out the problem.
Get real, and get informed. The NT’s total budget is about the same as the (latest) predicted cost for the federal NT intervention (bit over a billion dollars), and the NT already spends disproportionally more on indigenous affairs then they are funded for. The NT government have been asking the Howard government for help for years, precisely because they know what the problem is and don’t have the basic resources to solve it, and Howard always blew them off, and wouldn’t even accept the problem was as bad as it is, despite numerous reports across his desk providing stark evidence of the problems. Suddenly now, when he is in serious electoral trouble it is a major emergency that only he can solve, (and magically by ignoring virtually all the advice he has been presented with in these numerous reports), and which is everyone else’s fault.
With respect, you are being taken for a ride. Howard is relying on the basic decency of most Australians to cover his indecency on this issue.
Excuse me if I and others who actually know a bit about this problem are a little cynical and angry about it.
Here’s my prediction, this expensive self-serving political charade will deliver minimal improvements, and some substantial failures. And Howard et al will blame everyone else for it.
From the latest YR@W email.
Desperate Hockey cyber-stalks supporters in latest round of fear and smear
Dear Frank,
There is an astonishing article in The Australian newspaper today. Joe Hockey and his staff have reportedly cyber-stalked hundreds of citizens concerned about the Howard Government’s IR laws.
Using taxpayers’ time and money, Joe Hockey and his staff are reported to have compiled a dossier about people who oppose WorkChoices.
They have trawled through newspapers over recent months, Googling the names of people who exercised their democratic right to write letters to the editor. The article says Mr Hockey has then shopped this 20-page dossier to national newspapers.
Read the article exposing Hockey’s smear campaign and watch our newest ad.
http://www.rightsatwork.com.au/campaigns/smearandfear
This is just the latest in a long line of Howard Government fear and smear campaigns. We in no way apologise for encouraging people to democratically express their opinion in their own words.
Mr Hockey wasted $121 million dollars of our money promoting these extreme IR changes. No amount of stalking, smear campaigns, and demonising of unions and rights at work supporters will change the fact that these laws are hugely unpopular and hurt working people.
We have a new ad talking about all the good work unions do. It highlights the breadth of our community campaign. Watch the ad and donate to keep it on air here:
http://www.rightsatwork.com.au/campaigns/smearandfear
Since this campaign began two years ago, generous Rights at Work supporters like you have donated tens of thousands of dollars to the campaign. Thousands of individual donations ranging from $5 to $500 have made a huge difference to our campaign to get rid of WorkChoices and put fair work laws in its place.
We have to put an end to Mr Hockey’s relentless fear campaign. We can’t afford to be out-shouted during this election. We have to stop the Liberals from going further.
If you can afford to donate we would greatly appreciate your contribution.
Jeff Lawrence, Sharan Burrow, and the Rights at Work campaign team
Harry
I thought it was all about winding back land rights under the guise of compassion. You see, I do not trust Howard or anything he does.
Just Me, Your reponse pretty much encapsulates my complaint/whinge. I don’t understand why Rudd would support the intervention without having done some consultation with people who know what they’re talking about, and specifically, your point about the funding differentials between the different levels of government for different services. It can’t be all that difficult to understand the blame and cost shifting that goes on between the Fed. and State in relation to health is the same that goes on in relation to “Indigenous Affairs”.
Yes, well forgive me if I don’t think of things as negatively as some other people do. Whilst I have not much time for this government I don’t think they’re as evil as some people would suggest.
I believe some of them have the right intentions, it’s just misplaced and will probably not amount to much. Still, at least Indigenous Affairs got some attention for once. It’s usually the portfolio noone wants, and it’s extremely unpopular to do anything at all in relation to the area.
Lose the election please
You might be right. Name the “some” who have the right intentions and define what is “misplaced” in this context.
I know this is slightly off topic, but I am so absolutely appalled and disgusted by Joe Hockeys behaviour re letters in newspapers.
People write into newspapers with their views for the same reasons they write on sites like pollbludger:
1. This is still a democracy, and (despite the best efforts of the fascist howard government, read: the worm) we still have freedom of speech and opinion.
2. People have always felt comfortable that they can freely post their opinions without being personally scrutinized for them by the govt.
This act from the govt, in and of itself is so disgusting, and somewhat Thatcherist, and I hope that even those Liberal supporting letter writers have lost trust in their personal safety and security under this govt.
In the words of one of the most famous election campaigns in this country’s history: “It’s Time!”
550
Derek Corbett Says:
October 24th, 2007 at 6:19 pm
Silly Old Coot launching his odd skills training thingy for the ADF: “That looks like a fancy bit of equipment …â€
That reminds of the Monty Python’s “Meaning of Life” – and this is the machine that goes “ping”.
571
LOL, no he definitely said 1916 and never realised his mistake. Prognosis? The campaign will take it’s toll on him and he will fade towards the end.
The fool took a gamble on rates not going up and a 6 week campaign and both will bite him on the arse.
Let it End
Let’s give him the benefit of doubt. However, “1916″ might well prove the final nail. This is delicate, but the question must be asked: Is he fit for government?
Derek
I think he is struggling with “senior moments” and the more he is in public, the more he is under pressure, the more noticeable it will become.
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,22641036-2,00.html
LOL, that may have worked for the dill if he hadn’t forgotten directing everyone to use underlying rate of inflation and not the headline rate in all of his last 4 qrt press conferences on CPI.
As for his statement; “underlying inflation is expected as demand pressures ease”, I am totally speechless.
At least the media seem to have finally woken up to him now. Honestly, how anyone can attribute any credibility to Costello is beyond me.
I have been saying for a while that water is a key issue in the electorate, particlarly in regional areas, and I couldn’t understand why t wasn’t mentioned in the debate (except by Rudd, once, in passing). But the signs are building, as Possum suggests, that Rudd has got something planned.
I think Rudd should come out with a water plan very soon, something that’s better than Howard’s $10b Murray Darling Basin exercise, something that ensures the future of water supplies to country towns and capital cities alike, not just to irrigators. That might force Howard to do some me-tooism. The coalition’s idea of “infrastructure” is more pork for roads, but it should go beyond that, to health, education and training, ports, power and water.
Lack of water/drought is affecting house prices in parts of regional Victoria, and preventing urban expansion in some other areas. South-East Queensland is badly affected, and I wonder whether the mysterious huge swing (according to Morgan, anyway) to Labor in Hume is due to Goulburn’s severe water problems and the drought.
Rudd had no choice but to support the NT intervention, otherwise the Government would have painted him as being soft on child abuse.
I think Labor, if elected, will continue the intervention, but more in co-operation with the NT Government, and with a bit more sensitivity than the coalition.
However, it’s clear that there is general public support for the Government to do something drastic about the appalling conditions in some aboriginal settlement. Every Government – Federal, state and territorial – has let it get worse.
Frank Calabrese at 451
No, I’m not that Don Wiggan. I only have single ‘g’ – almost the reverse of Greeensborough who gains a lot of distinction with that extra ‘e’.
Not even familiar with that project. Which Santo was that: the Working Dog one (’Frontline’, ‘The Castle’), or that other one loved by the Friends of The ABC who was involved in some dodgy deeds which even by Queensland Liberal murky standards were too much, even for Howard.
I’m sorry I wasn’t now; it might provide some excellent material for a retro study today.
Keep up the good work with some of your WA posts, which I greatly enjoy.
Cheers.
584 Let it End
Let it, for an old timer like me that brings back lots of memories, especially from the decline and fall of the McMahon Government (which this one is starting to resemble).
In those days the CES used to prepare labour market figures quarterly. Their release was eagerly looked forward to, because any increase in unemployment was feared to spell doom for the presiding government.
Two sets of figures were released: the actual registered unemployed, and the ‘Seasonally Adjusted’ figures which took into account seasonal employment, casual and part-time. Naturally, seeing they were measuring somewhat different things, the figures were often quite different from each other.
Billy McMahon’s approach was to focus on ‘whatever numbers were lower’. So in one quarter he might trumpet the Seasonally Adjusted figures; in the next it might be the actual.
Good to see that the old tricks don’t die out.
Has everybody stopped posting here? Third post in a row at the tail end.
More great nes for Howard : Workchoices Fails (Advertiser lead story)
http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,22646139-5014075,00.html
Whoops! Should be ‘news’.
[i]can you post italics on here?[/i]
:S :-s :s