Hinkler (Qld, Nationals 8.8%): Greg Roberts of The Australian reports that Labor’s candidate for this Bundaberg-based seat, Garry Parr, is suffering a campaigning boycott from members of the Left and Unity (“Old Guard”) factions. Parr is backed by the Labor Forum (AWU) faction, whose chieftain Bill Ludwig has evidently put a few noses out of joint. Former Labor Forum members Brian Courtice, who held the seat from 1987 to 1996, and Greg McMahon, a one-time branch secretary and candidate at the 1998 state election, have said they will not vote for Parr in protest at Ludwig’s “bully boy” approach. Courtice was expelled from the party in 2005 for leaking party documents to state Nationals MP Rob Messenger, which purportedly exposed the “siphoning” of $7,000 in branch funds. At around this time, Courtice’s wife Marcia was sacked from her job with state Bundaberg MP Nita Cunningham, which she claimed to be in revenge for her husband’s actions. Marcia Courtice reportedly had the backing of local branches for the Bundaberg preselection going into the 2006 election, but the party’s union-appointed electoral college instead imposed former nurse Sonja Cleary. McMahon ran against Cleary as an independent, and the seat fell by a narrow margin to Nationals candidate Jack Dempsey, who was assisted by the fallout over the Bundaberg Hospital “Dr Death” scandal.
Blair (Liberal 5.7%): The Courier-Mail reports that the largesse being heaped on this crucial electorate, which covers most of Ipswich and rural areas beyond, is “starting to cause angst in Coalition ranks”. Specifically, Nationals Senator Barnaby Joyce has criticised the decision to spend $2.3 billion on the Goodna bypass as the government’s solution to congestion on the Ipswich Motorway. Blair was also the target of yesterday’s announcement by Mark Vaile of $700 million in Auslink funding for a second crossing of the Toowoomba Range, located in neighbouring Groom.
McEwen (Vic, Liberal 6.4%): The Age reports of yet more marginal seat road funding, this time in Fran Bailey’s traditionally precarious electorate beyond Melbourne’s north-eastern outskirts. Peter Costello appeared in the electorate yesterday announcing $80 million in AusLink funding for road bridges on a yet-to-be-built extension of the Epping rail line to South Morang.
Charlton (NSW, Labor 8.4%): Sitting member Kelly Hoare, who was first dumped by Labor in favour of former ACTU secretary Greg Combet and then humiliated with sexual harrassment claims, is “considering” following Gavan O’Connor’s footsteps and attempting to hold her Hunter Valley seat as an independent. She has until the closure of nominations next Thursday to make up her mind.
Wentworth (NSW, Liberal 2.6%): Danielle Ecuyer, investment banker and environmental activist, has confirmed she will run for Malcolm Turnbull’s seat as an independent. This prospect has attracted considerable attention as she is a former partner of the Labor candidate, George Newhouse.
Maranoa (Qld, Nationals 21.0%): Labor has dumped its candidate for this unwinnable rural Queensland seat, Shane Guley, after his reputation for robust behaviour as a union official emerged as a political liability. This didn’t seem to bother anybody when he ran at the 2004 election, at which time his colourful history was noted on this website.
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The following broadcast has been detected through a worm hole in space, (there’s the damn inverterbrate again!), and it comes from a few weeks in the future, and some experts think it’s the Melbourne Cup being called:
“…just two furlongs to go and Rodent’s Rear End is falling down the field, Mandarin Moment is way out in front, Bracket Creep’s looking tired but whoa! What’s this? Even Steven’s crushing Bracket Creep to the fence…he’s down, Bracket Creep is over, Rodent’s Rear End is bringing up the rear and oh, dear, he’s fallen on top of Bracket Creep and Mandarin Moment, the crowd’s favourite is five length’s in front as he crosses the finish line!”
Hang on, we’ve just confirmed it’s a bit later than that, in fact that’s the official vote counting from the tally room on November 24th.
Ladies and gentlemen, Rodent’s Rear End and Bracket Creep have just been put down, and Mandarin Moment is on a victory lap.
Jen – 348 Costello on 7.30 said there was no reason for the banks (not RBA) to raise rates because of the US sub prime mortgage crisis as they have little exposure to that market.
Any attempt to spin the 22% rates – saying there were business rates not morgages will not go well with one of their core supporters – small business. Howard is in a similar position to Latham in the last campain – he can’t directly defend the charge without making it worse.
I do find it funny that interest rates, something a govt has limited control over, could damage Howard so badly. Rates are on the rises to a large part becase regional economies (esp china) are growing.
After doing so much to kill the soul of this country and never once taking the blame – now he’s going down for something that he took responsiblity which was largely not the govt’s domain.
Costello on 7:30 Report earlier this year
“PETER COSTELLO, TREASURER: (Laughing) Well, of course, bananas were the largest component in that CPI figure. But as I was trying to explain in media today, interest rate policy is not just directed at the manual or the mechanical CPI. We try and look through one-off factors and we try to get a picture of what’s happening underline.
http://www.abc.net.au/7.30/content/2006/s1699014.htm
Now he tells us that the headline figure is all that is important. He can’t even remember what he said 3 months ago. Imbecile.
Julie @ 290
I wouldn’t put it past Howard to run a scorched earth policy from here on in. The rat is a lowlife vermin after all. To blow the budget and inflation, creating interest rate pain for the incoming Laborites would be exactly how he would think.
Rudd now surely has the ammo to disavow any more of the Rodent’s spending spree. I haven’t seen him respond yet to the $4bil for oldies, and I would hope he finds the courage to keep the chequebook mostly in the pocket from now on.
Howard sent many small businesses to the wall. I bet most of these people lost their homes. Funny thing is that you probably needed to have put your Company through the Bottom of the Harbour to have survived! I guy I know of built a very successful business using Howard’s corrupt scheme, in the end he could pay the fines ecause the business was raging! Still, the system was corrupt. But in those days the Government set the prices of mostly everything.
“The buck stops with me” is a good line, but you’re right Matthew, he will cop it in a couple of years.
Having said it though, and putting his credibility on the line, I have some optimism that he will kick some backsides to make improvements in the health system. If he doesn’t it will come back to haunt him.
The other thing worth noting is that if Labor wins this election, Rudd will be all-powerful and we will all gasp in awe as he passes. If he wants to cut through the crap I suspect not many people will be able to stand in his way.
Passthepopcorn
6 rates rises in 3 years, 1.5% increase in rates overall. I’m not sure that interest rates arent still comparatively ‘low’.
Of course Howard left himself some wriggle room by only saying that interest rates would be ‘lower’ under the coaltion than labour. This idea still has some resonance with the electorate. Its is only the critically stupid or deliberately mischievous who still state that Howard said “there will be no interest rate rises (at all) (( not saying you fall into either category))
Thanks Alex.
Still, wasn’t aware that it was his job to tellthe banks what they could do either.
Regardless of Costello weaving his spin the punters have put their own hard cash on that rates will rise and the libs will be blamed.
Centrbet has just blown the coalition out to 2.90 from 2.75 since the announcement.
Albert 353 – As I said in earlier post, Howard’s lies about ‘keeping interest rates at record lows’ made him the ‘owner’ of the rates issue in Australia. It is indeed ironic that the growth in the global economy, including Australia, is now his downfall.
I just hope Rudd doesn’t fall into the New Labour trap in the UK of employing loads of hospital administrators. The target driven culture in the British NHS has to be seen to be believed. Some of the targets might directly help patients, but many of them are being manipulated by people with too much time on their hands.
The past few weeks show why the betting markets aren’t believable. They merely react to things which may or may not effect the election outcome. To me, the polls still seem more reliable as a predictor.
One poll (Newspoll) and the release of economic figures shouldn’t be enough to change the odds so markedly.
Jen – 359 – That’s right, just him being the bully boy again. There is nothing he can do to stop banks from passing on the cost of money (excluding movement in RBA cash rate) if the banks choose to do so for new loans or re-finances.
If inflation is pushing into the 3-4% range. How does that effect the 30bil of tax cuts over the next few years. How much of it will be clawed back by bracket creep?
Liberal has voters like me.
Labor has voters with an IQ of over 100.
Smirk is not smirking as much now – has the look of death on his face at his press conference on TV.
Tabitha, your circuits appear to malfunctioning. You may want to reboot.
Right about the polls LTEP but don’t discount the betting markets all together. They polls reflect intention and the markets reflect “expectation”.
True they mirror the polls but they do tend to be leading indicator of the next poll as they seem to pick up the nuisances and shifts in sentiment more quickly.
LTEP – Oh dear, you really are the pessimist! The betting market does react to polling figures but I think it also reacts to the cumulative effect how how the party is travelling in regards to news in the media. If there is a preception the Libs are in trouble, then bets will be placed accordingly.
Chris B – You have a good point re: John Howard in 1996, but then he was relatively moderate during his first term (emphasis on relatively). It was only once re-elected that the serious neo-con knives started coming out.
I do think that Gittens could well end up being right in terms of Rudd’s innate conservatism and the constraints he has placed on the first Labor government in 11 years. I’m sceptical that Rudd will be the panacea that many think when it comes to social policy. But he does at least bring some long-term vision to a range of issues, something this country is crying out for.
Let It End – 369 – I think you meant ‘nuances’
Let It End: What’s has Labor shortened to? Need both the Labor and Coalition values to get an understanding of the probability of Labor winning. hehe
366
Does not compute
# 372. Oops, of course you are 100% right lol.
The ALP has come into $1.49 on Betfair.
I’m glad that we closed off our arbitrage on the election result just before the 58-42 Newspoll hit the news.
Now 1.42 on Centrebet Misty, may shorten more after listening to Costello
jim , yes, what howard said (and still is saying) is that interest rates would always be lower under a coalition govt than under labor.
and yes, current interest rates are still relatively “low”. but 1.5% rise translates into a lot of extra “burden” for people with any kind of reasonable-sized mortgage. enough of a “burden” for people to feel (whether legitimately or not) done over.
Albert @ 353
The best thing about all this is that he only has himself (and his gutless ‘Treasurer’) to blame for this, on at least a couple of grounds:
(1) took responsibility for keeping interest rates low – ’sound economic management’, ‘looking after battlers’ etc etc – and then proceeded to bribe his way into office repeatedly, which is exactly what you DON’T do if you’re interested in keeping rates low during a period of economic expansion (as the Smirk pointed out in the recent book)
(2) as others have noted, rattus didn’t call the election in time to avoid this fiasco, deciding to risk it in the hope that things would improve in the polling. This wasn’t just a flutter on tattslotto on Saturday night, though – this was walking into the Casino and putting the house, the wife, the kids and the Volvo on red #5. Which is pretty much how he’s run everything else.
These guys are total clowns, and it’s finally become apparent to all (including the highly entertaining Tabitha)
Jim 358
You’ve got it wrong on both counts:
No one says howard said there’d be no interest rate rises at all. What he said was that he would keep them at “record lows’. That means that he can’t wriggle out and say that he meant lower than they would be under labor cos he said a whole lot more than that.
Additionally, interest rates at the moment in Australia are on the upper end of the OECD average, so comparatively they’re actually high.
Jim @358. Rates are nominally low compared with the early 1990s (and early 1980s for that matter). But if you measure them in terms of how much household disposable income it takes to service average mortgage interest payments (how they FEEL), they have never been higher.
The level of household debt is such that each quarter percentage point rate rise today is the equivalent of a full percentage point in early 1990s terms. Given we have had nine rate increases since mid-2002 (with more to come), you can see how this might be hurting just a bit.
Of course, you could argue that it is a buyer-beware situation. Those households who have hocked themselves to high heaven could be said to have only themselves to blame. But since the Libs encouraged this recklessness while pledging in 2004 to “keep interest rates at record lows” (that is what their ads said, lest you argue otherwise), you could put together a good case that the baseball bats are out.
I guess Costello will say the economy is now like a F-111 rather than a well tune race car. The economy is going so fast, it needs a pilot with 10s of thousands of flying time to keep it managed well.
If anything, I think this shows the dire state of the Libs internal polling prior to the election being called. I don’t think they’d have taken a gamble on the rates rise if they thought they could go earlier and win comfortably.
misty @ 371 – if the ONLY thing that changed (reversed) under kevin rudd was the outrageous politicisation of the public service, then i’d be a happy camper. and i think he has a genuine commitment to that. or maybe i’m just way too gullible.
Yes Will (382), he might say that. Just before the ground avoidance radar system craps out and he hits the side of the mountain.
Yes, that was a key mistake ‘keeping interest rates at record lows’ – the other claim – always lower under labor, that gave him wriggle room.
It was funny to hear Mr. Howard claim a couple of months ago that it wasn’t him who’d said that… but the ad agency. At that moment, I knew he was in real trouble with that line. Labor should use it if they do another montage advertisement… record lows PLUS Howard blaming the agency… he certainly likes taking responsibility!
Another thing Howard never tells us is that interest rates have been around these levels since May 1992 even though he tries to spin it that something dramatically changed for the better once he was elected in March 1996. It didn’t.
http://www.rba.gov.au/Statistics/cashrate_target.html
that should be, of course, ‘always lower under Liberal’… getting ahead of myself!
Election advertising should clearly identify the source.
Recieved 2 flyers in my mailbox today, and you cannot tell who sent them unless you look at the authorisation (and even then you need to actually know who G. Jaeschke and T. Gatrell are. I know who they are, but i doubt most people do.)
Oh and so much for Labor not running negative advertsing. Lucky for them most people won’t know it came from them.
CL de F – 385 I always like the contradiction in Costello’s various comments about the state of the economy. On one hand, it’s strong, it’s robust, we’re ready to weather any storm. Then on the other hand, it’s a finely tuned Ferrari, ripping along, finely tuned and balanced , needing a careful hand on the wheel. Really, he is just full of crap.
The Liberals are already choosing the next Opposition Leader?
LMAO Shouldn’t they be spending more time saving a few of their safer seats?
Bobby Horry @ 333
Nope. The numbers DEMAND a response. The RBA has a pretty simple charter on this. Keep underlying inflation between 2-3%. If the result came in at .7% then they would have a good case not to raise (although they do look beyond just the past quarter). At .8% they would want to have evidence of slowing looking forward, at .9 and 1% like today the decision is pretty much made for them. There is no evidence of easing inflation on the horizon. Low unemployment is creating skilled labour shortages, and China just ain’t exporting deflation like they were previously (which is what really gave Howard the low rates he claims credit for). Only the strengthening dollar is giving signs of taking a couple of points off inflation through cheaper imports, but not enough to keep the lid on.
No the interest rate brake needs to be applied, and the earlier it is the better in the long run. Doing it in November on these numbers is completely apolitical and justifiable. To hold out for a month is not.
Alex McD @ 390 – Exactly. Today’s press conference was, by all accounts, a comedic performance par excellence. They’re really cactus now – two weeks of misery while they wait for the RBA to decide – during which time the pork will remain barrelled and Smirk and the rat will have to try to expalin why things f#@ked up. Even the MSM should be able to work it all out by now, surely!
That’s who I think it will be. But even if he does win his seat will still be marginal. I don’t think the Libs want another leader who is in a marginal seat.
Why would ANY Liberal support a guy who could’ve had the leadership in 1994, 1995, 2005, 2006 and 2007 but was too gutless to challenge?
This is hilarious coming from a guy who opposed the Accords, which were designed to kill inflation.
philopsephically speaking, when youre’ on the bum end of things there can be
1. a knockout blow
2. the death of a thousand papercuts
and it’s 2. For two weeks now, the campaign will be sidetracked by talk of interest rates (hello, Sawford formula?), while squeaky clean Rudd-style trudeaumania sweepeth the land and enchanteth the boys and girls. And then they’ll put rates up and it’ll interfere with the melbourne cup and that’ll just hack people off.
And then, come about November 15, when JWH has gone troppo to appeal to the last demographic standing (and since we’re reduced to asking if the Libs can hold Kooyong, God alone knows who that will be) it’ll be every incumbent for him/herself. And because there isn’t a centre-right party to bleed to (family first?), the anti-Lib vote jumps across the aisle. Pop.
Dolly is out with Malcolm Turnbull in Wentworth this afternoon – wow couldn’t think of a better endorsement!
Dolly & Malcolm, maybe they are plotting a coup – just like APEC.
Has anyone got pix or info?
Its strange to me that all those fiscal conservative zealots over at the GG and elsewhere have not yet starting screaching full throttle about the way this election is becoming a financial auction. For a country that has fetishised fiscal rectitude for a good part of the last 2 decades its strange that there hasnt been more resistance now that the floodgates have opened. I think history is going to view this period as one in which the riches and opportunity of the resources boom was effectively squandered on middle class welfare and tax cuts.
Howards plan is to combine a macro assault of pork to key broad demographics with a micro targeted assault on marginals. Money is being sprayed left right and centre. An incoming Rudd government is going to be encumbered by all of this in terms of spending options and most probably wearing the blame for the interest rate rises that will come off the back of it in the longer term. The only reason the MSM haven’t thrown the fiscal vandalism book at Labor so far is that they’ve followed the coalition plans. It remains to be seen how much longer they’l tolerate it. With more than a month to go this could get out of hand – the mind boggles at where the pork will go. In this sense the CPI figure today is good news cos it could be the equivalent of a cold bucket of water over Howard.
The only other possible positive out of it is that Howard could be in the middle of trashing his economic record for good. This will possibly give Labor more scope when in office to do its own thing and spare us having to sit through long diatribes by opposition leader bronwyn bishop about the halcyon days of the long lost howard govt.
391 Howard Hater Says: October 24th, 2007 at 3:26 pm
I don’t know why they’re bothering. The way they’re going, the next opposition leader is going to be Bob Brown.
LMFAO “Team Howard/Costello” is coming unstuck at a rapid rate.
What happened to the Rodent and Smirky doing joint campaign appearances across the country? Instead it’s Rodent and Hyacinth LOL
I wouldn’t be sure about the MSM: the Murdoch papers and the ABC are so wedded to Howard, I think they’ll stick with him to the bitter end, then claim on November 25 that it was a shock election result outcome.
He shoud’a called the election in August/September. The polls stopped him. He shoud’a resigned when Dolly told him. Hyacinth stopped him. Now he’ll take his Party to its greatest-ever defeat. Some legacy.
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