With today’s consumer price index figures said by analysts to make a Melbourne Cup interest rates hike extremely likely, Crikey offers another round of Roy Morgan data mining, this time ranking electorates in order of respondents’ various economic concerns. Morgan has also aggregated its September polling to provide state and country/city breakdowns. Also in the mail today is the latest Reuters poll trend, a weighted aggregate of Newspoll, ACNielsen and Roy Morgan. It shows essentially no change from the October 10 result, with Labor on 56.6 per cent of two party preferred (up 0.1 per cent) and 48.6 per cent of the primary vote (down 0.1 per cent), and the Coalition primary vote steady on 39.1 per cent.
460 Comments
That is a very flat looking graph.
Is the Morgan looking as silly today as yesterday?
Its a very nice looking graph.
The Narrowing That Never Was
LABOR 1.42
COALITION 2.90
I’m a big fan of vernacular creativity, and the blogs are throwing up some pearlers.
A non-exhaustive list of Costello pseudonyms;
Tip (as in All Tip No Iceberg – thanks PK!)
The Smirk, Smirky, The Smirker, The Smirky Smirker
The Knee
the Prime Minister in Waiting… and waiting
Custardello
la Cost Elle
$Sweetie
Bracket Creep
Back to the hoary question of ‘economy/national security’ cf ’social/health/education’. The striking thing about Newspoll numbers is how symmetric they are.
Coalition voters split around 90 to not much in favour of their party on economy/national security, but only around high 60s to under 20 in favour of their party on social issues. Labor voters are exactly the inverse: they’re 10 to 1 pro their party on social issues, around 4 to one on economy.
So there’s some kind of correlation there, but not necessarily any cause and effect. Indeed, the so-called ’soft’ proportions seem to cancel themselves out.
The curiosity then is with the thinking of the fifth or so of supporters of each party who aren’t completely partisan. Doubters on economic issues (Labor) or social issues (Liberal), but for whom their parties perceived failings on those issues aren’t enough to shift allegiance.
Hi Rattus
Don’t forget Captain Smirk, Yello Costello and low altitude flyer (another PK special!!) . In regards to the last here is PK in action :
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aaLLP4sc_6Q
Missing, presumed delusional:
Cerdic Conan
Steven Kaye
Nostradamus
Although these people have all but disappeared, brief sightings were reported after slightly-improved poll numbers for the Coalition, only to disappear again after Monday’s edition of Lateline.
Cerdic is missing permanently.
I luv Hawkies ( No spasms evident ) on agenda just now “Howard should annouce some road funding for Syria considering his use of the road to Damascus ie Blacks aged iraq etc etc “
Saw on the Morgan site a State by State City Country breakdown of their stuff for August and Sept. Bad news for the Coalition in every state except WA. Its showing W.A. as having the reverse in primary vote of the rest of the country??
Now some will put this down to the popularity of AWA’s, and high salaries, but its only the mining boom workers who are getting that. The rest of us are paying higher prices for everything, and SerfChoices has meant that our pay has been kept very modest.
This is particularly true in the regional centers servicing the mining / resources sector. Someone on the mines or processing plants can afford the rents being charged, but the checkout person at the local supermarket and a lot of others who keep these places functioning localities are having real bother.
Be interesting to see how this translates on polling day. W.A. doesn’t have enough seats to make a difference to the result if the polls in the other states are at all in the ballpark, and with Green preferences (they are doing well) it would be touch and go at least in the city seats.
Poor Cerdic.
You know, on the strength of that trend, I think something special is going to happen in a month’s time.
The 1996/2007 comparison over at ozpolitics gives an indication of the the historical significance of these numbers.
I miss Cerdic: he at least gave me much amusement LOL
So pissed was a certain former leader one night recently at a nightclub in Bayswater Road Kings Cross that we took a series of photos of him wearing different hats, undies on his head, ciggies in his ears etc.
He just slurped incoherently into his 17th (?) scotch.
Hey, we’re forgetting this beauty for Costello from Annabel Crabbe, I think:
The Sub Prime Minister
Loved it.
PS Maxine still a sure fire winner in Bennelong.
#14
I think it was Matty Price, actually.
Red Wombat’s ‘The Gimp’ was excellent (I think I’ve got this attribution right…?) It’s especially appropriate when referring to times when Mr. Costello and Mr. Howard are together.
Did the RBA push up mortgage interest rates today? Anyone..
Im thinking we wont hear anything till they meet in Nov..but Im often wrong.
I have not disappeared by any means.
Additionally, I still favour Howard to win. I will admit that the Coalition will lose a few seats, but much fewer than is required for a change in government. Swings at elections are never uniform and the Coalition will direct all its resources to the marginals it holds in the 2-5 percent bracket, meaning that Labor must pick up seats currently held by the Coalition at a margin higher than that – something that I don’t see them doing. It is simply too hard to expect Rudd to come back from so far behind in his first stint as opposition leader.
On the all-important measure of who is deemed to be the better manager of the economy, Howard remains comfortably in front. As has been mentioned, no prospective PM has won an election from this far behind on this measure.
There is no sentiment in the community that the PM should be thrown out like there was for Keating in 1996. It is not “time”; the nation is relaxed and comfortable; WorkChoices will only have an impact in safe Labor seats where there are lots of lower-class workers; and interest rates are still the key factor in the mortgage belt. Regardless of how high interest rates were when Howard was treasurer, the figure indelibly printed into voters’ minds is still the 17% under Hawke and Keating. A union-bowing Rudd government would almost certainly have higher interest rates than a Coalition government; under these conditions many families would default their homes.
The ALP may well win the popular vote, but the swing required for a majority is just too high. Prediction: Coalition with a majority of 4-8 seats.
lower-class workers????
mmmmm and such a long thoughtful post
Nostrodamus @ 19
Depends where you go perhaps, but I am definitely getting the “It’s Time” feeling when I’m out in public – T-shirts, comments from swinging voter family members etc. I think it’s not a huge groundswell as yet but given the right circumstances I think it’s there to be capitalised on by Labor.
How do you know all this Nostrsdamus? The Libs may throw everything at the marginals, but that doesn’t mean they’ll win them.
Nostradamus, a quite sensible post in some ways.
Do you really believe that the Coalition will hold marginals in the 2-5% bracket just because they focus on them? Do you not imagine the ALP will be focusing on these seats as well? Presuming that, if there’s a largish swing on election night is it not possible the swing could be enough to net a large proportion of these seats?
Nostro,
If it’s 54/46 on the night, no amount of Coalition pork in the marginals will save them – that would be a 7% TPP on a national basis.
Dinsdale @ 11
Very interesting graph there. It seems to show that Kevin 07 is rating higher than Howard in ‘96.
Nostrils
Interest rates just went up, they are about to go up again. Howard’s credibility is zero – Costello’s less.
Can you honestly tell me why anyone would vote coalition?
Hey Nostrodamus, did you have the same moniker on Backpages about 4 years ago?
“Nostrils” is that you?
As much as I would love Kevin to win, I’m inclined to agree with Nostradamus.
“Swings at elections are never uniform and the Coalition will direct all its resources to the marginals it holds in the 2-5 percent bracket, meaning that Labor must pick up seats currently held by the Coalition at a margin higher than that – something that I don’t see them doing. It is simply too hard to expect Rudd to come back from so far behind in his first stint as opposition leader.”
Especially when polling in the actual electorates – a la the polling recently published from seats in WA – does not show as high a vote for Labor as on a national basis.
“The ALP may well win the popular vote, but the swing required for a majority is just too high.”
It may be like ‘98. The ALP will win the popular vote but not the seats.
My concern is that Rudd is not spending enough time working the marginals (e.g. he hasn’t even travelled to WA yet), which is what Howard will obviously be doing (e.g. his excursion to Kingston the other day).
Moreover, most of those “swinging voters” will be persuaded by arguments on economy, which is where the Liberals clearly hold ground.
Someone please reassure me that all will be fine and Rudd will pick up his 16 seats, for I remain sceptical.
Just wondering – Are there any polls expected out tomorrow?
Or will the inflation figures (or the trapped Kalgoorlie gold miners) dominate the headlines?
The market rates the chances of a pre-election rate rise at 83%
http://www.asx.com.au/sfe/targetratetracker.htm
“It may be like ‘98. The ALP will win the popular vote but not the seats”
There is no one nation this election, the only seats the Libs will win is where they win on primaries.
In response to No. 27 – no. I’ve never even heard of backpages.
Interest rates may well go up in early November but that’s likely to help the Coalition rather than Labor. It would remind voters how much it would go up if they opted for change.
It is highly unlikely that Labor would win either of Bennelong or Wentworth even if there was a huge swing on nationally simply because of the fact that Howard is PM and Turnbull’s margin is artifically small because of a three-cornered contest last time. Therefore the real swing required for the ALP is even higher.
The CPI figures will spice up the Deputy Dawg – Rooster debate on Tuesday…
Nice to see Nostro back even if briefly…
The chances of another interest rate rise early next month are strong following todays inflation figures. Again poor judgement by Howard for not calling the election beforehand.
I bet Howard now wishes he had retired last year. Let’s examine the consequences:
- Howard retires as an unbeatable legend.
- Costello given sufficient time to consolidate position as PM.
- Beazley would have been leader of the opposition instead of Rudd.
- Liberals favoured to win again.
Consequences for Howard for not standing down:
- Labor leading in the polls and short priced favourites with bookies.
- Liberals facing greatest ever defeat.
- Howard set to lose his own seat.
- Costello never to be PM.
In Summary:
Howard was too greedy and Costello was to weak. Sweet!
I cant see the Coalition losing the election unless Howard loses Bennelong and i cant see that happening…if Howard were to lose his seat the Government would fall but i dont see him or Turnbull losing their seats so i still think it is a tough ask for Labor to win Government…
Because with a swing that every poll for the last year has shown, it doesn’t matter if the government directs every resource they can lay their hands on into the marginals. Whichever marginal Labor don’t win – and it won’t be many – they’ll take an equal amount of safe seats.
It simply doesn’t matter what spin you want to put on the figures – every piece of evidence for months has said the government is completely stuffed. The rate rise is just going to be the final nail in the coffin.
Nostro @ 32,
I disagree with your assertion about interest rates helping the Coalition. When rates went up last time (I think in August), there was no movement towards the Coalition – in fact, in September (when people would have started feeling the effects of the rate rise), there was a definite move towards Labor.
However, I do agree with you on Labor not winning Bennelong or Wentworth. I’ve always said that it’s unlikely that they’ll win either (particularly now in Wentworth, given the problems that Newhouse has been having), but I think they’re setting Bennelong up for the by-election that occurs after Howard resigns (whenever that may be).
This means you do not understand the difference between causation and probability.
It is PROBABLE that if John Howard loses Bennelong, the government will lose the election. However, John Howard losing Bennelong will not CAUSE the government to lose the election.
If you want to remain sceptical, that’s your choice. All information out there suggests a comfortable ALP win at this stage. Now if this changes, then I’ll worry about it, but I’m not going to start stressing prematurely just for the sake of it.
Actually you are wrong ShowsOn because if Bennelong and Wentworth were to fall they are about 14 and 6 on the list of marignals and thus the swings would be enough for Rudd to win if the ALP captured these 2 seats if they cant win these 2 then i doubt they’ll win Government…as the swings clearly were not enough for Rudd…
Glen,
Labor can very easily win if they don’t win Bennelong. Bennelong is not a normal 5% marginal seat – the sitting PM factor is huge, as is the fact that Howard has represented the seat for 33 years. It behaves more like an 8% semi-marginal.
More importantly, there are plenty of juicy seats around that Labor could win, regardless of the result in Bennelong. I think we’ve all been underestimating Labor’s position in Victoria for too long – I’m now thinking that Labour could pick up at least 2 seats there and possibly up to 5. We’ve also got to realise that the interest rate rises bring seats like Robertson, Greenway and (possibly) Macarthur into play in NSW. The fact that Rudd was campaigning yesterday in Macarthur is indicative of this…
The day the Coalition loses Macarthur the Revolution will be here Rudd has shown as much hubris and arrogance as it would be for Howard to campaign in the seat of Wills or Gellibrand…
I have got a little on Greenway falling.
I miss having PJK in parliament, terribly. It’s never been the same since, and it never will be again.
Howard debt buggered economy: Hawke
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,22641674-29277,00.html
amen Bob, amen
Glen,
I agree that Macarthur is an unlikely Labor gain this time around (the Pat Farmer factor is probably too big to overcome). But it’s in play, like Greenway now (lots of mortgagees in and around there) and it has similar demographics to Lindsay.
But the point of the original post was not to argue about Macarthur, but to say Labor can easily win without either Bennelong or Wentworth. I’ve compiled my list of the 16 seats that could go:
Bonner
Moreton
Blair
Herbert
Lindsay
Eden-Monaro
Parramatta
Kingston
Makin
Wakefield
Solomon
Bass
Braddon
Hasluck
La Trobe
Dobell
Says someone who had 17% interest rates and 13% unemployment and high inflation and billions of dollars of Commonwealth debt…hmm why does Bob have any credibility to criticise the Howard Government???
Glen, what is your prediction for the final result? How many seats will the Coalition win?
You are certainly more confident now the campaign has begun. I recall you being far less optimistic a few weeks ago.
What do you think of the fact that the Liberal Party’s internal polling has Maxine McKew in front fractionally in Bennelong?
The following ex-posters
Cerdic Conan
Steven Kaye
Nostradamus
are obviously Liberal staffers who are now too busy updating their CVs to be posting here.
Thos Morgan results are HORRENDOUS for Howard in Queensland. Absolutely catastrophic. There’s no other way to put it. Even a 2PP for Labor of 51 will deliver them a swag of QLD seats, but the PRIMARY vote is 50.5 in the country and _57_ in the city!! I’m shocked.
If Morgan is right, Nov 24 will be a legendary political defeat that will resonate for decades.
WA is certainly an anomaly, though. Maybe they should secede. Then they can give Ben Cousins a knighthood and no-one will care.
The Coalition realistically only has a chance to win 2 seats and they are in WA…Swan and Cowan.
I cant really predict the result because i dont know ask me 1 week out from the election but it is likely Labor will win the popular vote but not the seats like in 1998…that is a rough prediction but what do i know?
I wouldnt be worried about internal polling…i still believe the Howard Factor will be enough to hold the seat…if Howard loses his seat the election will be lost plain and simple the Coalition is not going to win and Howard lose…
Interesting article:
http://www.smh.com.au/news/opinion/buffer-boy-still-a-good-chance/2007/10/21/1192940899276.html?page=2
So Glen, you’re just ignoring all polling and assuming that the Coalition will pull it off?
It’s a very foolish move to make and I’d assume your party won’t be doing the same thing. I actually think the Costello leadership move may have been a preemptive move on the Coalition’s part just in case Howard loses Bennelong and they win government.
That way they can say they campaigned on Costello taking over the leadership.
The Morgan results are just trash unfortunately. They will only be believable if they’re repeated on election day.
The Westpoll has the Coalition winning in Cowan, Stirling and Hasluck. So, is it conceivable that the Coalition could pick up seats?
Im not discounting the polls if they dont change we’ll probably lose but i still think they will…
Sean, yes it is conceivable that the Coalition will pick up seats in WA. However, note recent Westpolls have the ALP in front on a state level, demonstrating a signficant swing from ‘04.
This means that either their seat-by-seat polling is out, their statewide polling is out, or we’re seeing swings in odd areas (note the recent Morgan polling showing Labor in front in Curtin – unbelievable).
Swan has not received any attention by Westpoll on a seat level, which is odd given it’s very slim margin. I have also not heard anything from the Liberal Party suggesting they think they have a chance so I think the ALP will retain Swan.
I have been on the record for a long time saying the ALP will lose Cowan. I lived in Cowan for 22 years of my life and have seen the changing demographics in the seat at close hand.
All in all that would be a loss of 1 seat, and not out of the question for the ALP to pick up an additional seat to counter that.
Glen, two points
1. Lithium, get some
2. One of the guys you barrack for was once accused (by his own mob if memory serves) of agreeing with the last person he talked too.
You should’ve waited abit before you lept on Nostrils themes. (We all know how you love the latest Lib “Themes”…
First story on 7 news was some dodgily put together snipe at Nicole Cornes and how she is supposedly been snubbed by Rudd. These days she doesn’t really have to do anything and they will find some sort of negative garbage to put on her. I think you can cross Boothby of the gains list, even though Southcott is just as much of a dud.
Glen
The way the polls are measuring intentions is nothing like 1998 or 2004 so no comparisons can be made. For Labor to win the vote but lose on seats, their 2pp figure would have to drop to 50.5% in the election. That’s a drop from the current intention (with about 90% of voters locked in to their choice) of say 57% down to 50.5% in the next four weeks with an interest rate rise in two weeks time. Sorry Glen, it’s all over. The hearse awaits in the driveway. Buy a few beers for the wake.
When is the next Galaxy poll coming out?
Oh I don’t think that the bookies are beleiving this
… I checked her odds this afternoon and despite the coalition ballooning out to $3 on Sportsbet, JH is at $1.37 and she is at $2.70. Me thinks that it might be time to put some money on Maxine 
:)
Glen, your post
Im not discounting the polls if they dont change we’ll probably lose but i still think they will…
is your most rational to date with the admission that if the polls dont change you lose. PLease explain on WHAT BASIS you think the polls will change when they have been steady all year and the last Newspoll showed 90% votes definately or most likely voting the way they indicate
Glen
Surely you realise that Pork has come to an end today. Rudd has already said he will spend less thean Howard.
So what has he left? Economy – trashed. National security – Hicks and Haneef lies.
Howard has given himself a dozen perfect wedgies. His election strategy is in tatters. His last hope was a win at the casino playing blackjack but he drew a ten (which kept him in the game) a three (which made him nervous and cranky) and finally today a 9. Bye Bye.
The election is all about how many seats can we have in opposition.
Andrew, the polls don’t need to change much from Galaxy’s 53/47 for the Coalition to be truly competitive.
Tristan Jones, I’d imagine Friday, but results will be leaked on Thursday night if they’re good for the Coalition.
You have no idea what you are talking about.
There is not such thing as “must win seats”.
To form government you need 76 out of 150, it doesn’t matter which 76 you win.
I repeat my earlier comment, you are confusing causation and probability.
Did anyone see Howard promise to extend funding until 1916 for the military schools?
All students will have to do a complusory subject on “Hun Studies”.
Julie, Maxine is at good odds (overs). I’m on.
Did I hear right? I can’t believe it. Howard said he is not in favour of pre-emptive strikes! AAAHAHAHA
As Glen well knows, mortgage rates were subject to government control when the rat was Treasurer. They were capped at 11%. that was before we had a deregulated banking sector, which meant that there wasn’t all that much money around. On the other hand, commercial rates weren’t, so the small busines rates went to 22%. Howard is about as good an economic manager as my dog. The dog’s much cuter, by the way. And that lunatic Costello – Black is White. Who’s running the economy now, Smirkster?
Sadly the Morgan State poll breakdown is of little use It provides a percentage split between City and Country. You can not add or average out percentages and Morgan did not publish the no of respondents that make up the each division. Not knowing the boundaries he has used also makes it difficult. Again it would be good if the pollsters could provide state/Party support statistics in their published results consolidated percentages per state or provide the numbers not just the percentage.
I often am left with the feeling that the pollsters do not like providing detailed breakdown of their data. A bit like the electoral commission who try to also avoid publishing relevant details.
Having read the data feed manual and guidelines I notice it is missing information relevant to the effective scrutiny. Missing is the the postal and pre-polling vote statistics on the number of ballot papers issued and returned prior to polling day (This statistic should be provided on a daily basis in the lead up to election day), absentee vote statistics recorded in the polling place return for each polling place/electorate. This information would allow for better monitoring and scrutiny of the ballot as the total number of votes issued can be ascertained and monitored.
Also missing is the below-the-line preference data files for the senate.
It looks like the AEC has focused on the commercial interests of media and forgot about the probity and scrutiny of the ballot.
All Peter Costello wants for Xmas is an old fashioned wind up watch– he already has a quartz model but it is silent and like him doesn’t have a ticker.
I thought you were banned because of this rubbish?
Sad to hear that, Kev. This is the impression I get over here in Werriwa also. That she’ll struggle to win. It’s a shame because Labor seem to have put up a lot of female candidates and it would be great to see them all in parliament next year.
I have a friend in Perth who emailed me today and said Howard can’t catch any luck in Perth at all. Apparently the West Australian had a story about Howard on the front page but no picture. The picture was of Ben Cousins, *again* along with more stories therein. Frank C., can you verify this?
Yeah, Rudd snubbed her by bludging in Melbourne. Everyone knows only people in Adelaide get to vote at elections.
“It may be like ‘98. The ALP will win the popular vote but not the seats”
Can someone remind what the ALP primary vote was in ‘98.
I think the ALP win in the popular vote is overstated.
My view is that no-one expected the ALP to win so they got a few cheap protest votes over the GST. One nation ate into the Coalition’s vote in mostly safe seat (on both sides) and a lot of the preference leaked over the ALP due to difficulty on one nation voters to count beyond three.
In other words the “popular win” had a fair bit of air in it.
Although i am a Labor supporter… What i would like to know is how Labor intends to deal with interest rates after the election? Because next year they will continue increase… and Labor can’t blame the States for that one… No excuses with Labor governments everywhere….For once a chance for real reform?
“Did anyone see Howard promise to extend funding until 1916 for the military schools?”
Yes, I did on Ch9 with Laurie.
The money can be used to fight the Battle of the Somme.
Casualties will be similar to the Liberal Party’s.
71
Yeah, how true, We need to get as many women elected as possible.
But if it walks like a duck … etc etc
Rod Sawford, retiring Labor MHR for Port Adelaide, apparently said today that his grandfather’s formula for predicting election results gave Labor an additional 13 seats – two or three short.
Any more statements from the Belinda Neals of this world and he could be right.
Melbcity, Morgan is very dodgy. I often wonder just how many people work for that organisation, and how many of them have any training or education in statistical analysis or data gathering.
Don’t they realise that putting out a shoddy product (or at least the appearance of one) on a frequent basis is worse than an infrequently published, but superior one?
Still, I don’t deny that it’s good entertainment, and maybe they’ll be proven right on election day. I for one will be backtracking through these polls to see how accurate they’ve been.
Howard has only himself to blame if he gets caught up in an interest rate rise. He could easily have called the election three weeks earlier but decided instead to play funny buggers..
MelbCity is not banned and never has been. He has however been asked to exercise moderation with his ballot data crusade, which by and large he has done.
Did Laurie draw attention to the 1916 mistake ? Has it yet assumed the status of a “gaffe” in the MSM?
I have never studied economics at tertiary level, but it’s not hard to follow what the economists at banks like HSBC and Macquarie are saying today.
And Rudd has been pretty devastating making the point that the serious inflationary pressures we are facing are due to the ineptness of the government and their failure to build capacity.
Costello is huffing and puffing of course … all he’s good for.
I am finally starting to think a big win for Labor is possible. Another 4 and a half weeks of myth-busting and the choices will be crystal clear, surely.
Liberal Boys are tough and do not panic
Labor Boys are weaklings and cowards
Tabitha, are you a member of the exclusive brethren?
Labor needs a uniform swing of 4.13% to have 75 Seats in the house (with an implied 73 for the Coalition and 2 for independents)
Swings are never uniform – but the idea is the Mackerra’s pendulum does NOT PREDICT WHICH SEATS WILL FALL, only the total number.
The Pendulum theory acknowledges that swings are non uniform. The strong presumption being they will balance each other out. That is a 4.1% swing to Labor will MOST LIKELY result in 75 Seats, although there will be suprises – There will be some unexpected gains by Labor, but also some unexpected retains by the Coalition.
There is NO reason to think this is not the case unless you have very strong evidence that the swing to Labor is larger in Labor held seats or very safe Liberal seats. This was the case in 1998, with the govt doing a lot better in the marginals, however this artifact is already built into the current margins as the govt has been in for a long time, and should not be a factor.
1916 hit ABC news in Brissy
Thanks for that Tabitha….anyway… like I said before
Lithium, (or is this what happens as it starts to take effect)?
So interest rates increase but what of the people who don’t have mortgages? And a recession Mr Costello and Mr Howard… I am afraid whoever is in government and the metooism on economic policy means recession for both Labor and Liberal..
Watch out for an ad in the next day or two that Labor will lead to a recession. Since Costello and Howard both talked about it today, it has to point to a possible advertising stratergy.
Marky Marky… exactly how will either the Labor or Liberal Party’s policy lead to recession?
I think you will find that Labor will try to design their economic policy around curbing inflation. They won’t make the same mistake that the Liberals have made.
This is a case of the Liberal ideology getting in the way of sound economic management. The Liberals always want to cut tax to starve the government so it can’t actually accomplish good things. They would’ve been better of building a desalination plant for every capital city, or building more water treatment works so we can keep all the storm water run off. But to them that would’ve be socialistic, they’d rather just cut taxes and hope the big problems fix themselves.
Kev at 58
I’m afraid Cornes has failed to cut through here in Boothby. Granted, she hasn’t been given any friendly coverage, but neither has that non-entity Southcott. Poor choice, and I hope the ALP learns from the experience. There would have to be a drover’s dog out there somewhere that could have kept a steady shop, covered off on policy and been swept to Canberra on the tidal wave…
85
New Liberal Party Website:
http://www.lies.com/
Interest rate rises, even a recession in the next year to 18 months isn’t bad for a Labor government… they’ll just blame Howard/Costello who will still be fresh in the popular memory. After that though… there will be problems.
Liberal girls are fat and ugly (Bronwyn Bishop, Amanda Vanstone).
Labor girls are intelligent and sexy (Kate Ellis, Tanya Plibersik).
I’ve got to stop this.
Forget the swing. Swings are nowhere near as relevant as they used to be 10 years + ago.
And always remember, that 4% is based on what Latham did. A dead drovers dog could do better than Latham did. The swing came down to 2% as soon as Rudd became leader.
I truly wish some people would drop the “same as 1998″ nonsense, it can’t happen. There is no One Nation to provide lib preferences this time so they will have to do it on their own primary.
If the libs can’t get their primary up by 7% over the next 4 weeks they will be routed.
Labor is for people who cannot get real jobs
Liberal is for winners who create businesses
Please explain to me the difference in economic policy between Labor and Liberal parties…
Recession may not occur in the next two years… But with a current account deficit and foreign debt out of control… causing higher rates.. with household and corporate debt running at 160 per cent of GDP and interest payments now at 16 per cent of disposable income… And on housing affordability neither side has solutions… negative gearing and capital gains taxes concessions are fueling problems regarding investors buying homes causing a housing bubble…and what is the solution from both sides oh government land in areas where infrastructure is nonexistent… Fair dinkum for all you gloaters… think of the future please…
#79 – I have contended before that the unemployment rate is artificially low due to the low participation rate and the historically high under-employment rate (things that grandpa Sawford could not have known about). My hypothesis is that the Sawford prediction would be different if we do a more modern callibration of the ‘unemployment’ rate, rather than the standard labourforce figure.
Spot on Let it End.
So how soon before the Libs change their scare ads to wall-towall ALP and the GST going up?? I predict before the end of the week.
Labor keeps the economy rolling.
Liberal plays golf everyday, costs corporations billions of dollars and pay themselves substantial bonuses and salaries for doing so.
Labor is for thieving union officials
Liberal is for letting you keep what you earn
Labor is for paying taxes.
Liberal is for hidden taxation schemes.
Labor is for taxing all your money
Liberal is for giving it back to you
I just got polled by The Advertiser in the seat of Adelaide.
Questions –
* First Preference Vote
* How likely to change?
* Who did you vote for last time?
* Age
Expect that to come out on Friday.
There is one aspect of wall-to-wall Labor that the Liberal dopes don’t get – these Labor Governments were elected, they have been chosen by the people in a democratic fashion. The Liberals are so dumb they just don’t understand.
Winners and losers? I despair…
I did not ask for silly comments
Labor is for spending on services.
Liberal is for taxing the poor to give to the rich.
If labor wins 14 seats they can form a minority govt…..
govt can be won without Mr Howard losing Bennelong or Mr Turnbull
being defeated in Wentworth
Swings will be all over the place
If I were a Lib or National with a margin of less than say 10%
I would be very concerned
This election seems to be shaping up like NSW 1988 or SA 1979
state elections
Labor governments bring unemployment and recession
Liberal governments take us out of recession and into prosperity
Labor is for high interest rates
Liberal is for high interest rates
Zenk 108 – Kate Ellis “will bolt it in”
Pause Tabitha, 7.30 Report on now.
Warringah 83 – yes, Laurie did point it out. 1916, Howard has regressed again.
Labor is for spending on services for their mates
Labor is for taxing the life out of business so no one has a job
El nino totally correct…
Oh come on tabitha. It’s fine in moderation but please don’t push it.
My prediction, Labor 86 seats including Bennelong which will go on the night.
Marky,
Considering you are someone who regularly promotes Green policies which would probably damage the economy it’s hard to take you seriously.
Greens are for high interest rates
116 – I agree, I think Kate will get a 6% swing at least.
I asked the Tiser pollster what she does for her day job (due to speculation on this site about where the tiser does its polling).
She said she worked in circulations (ie. selling papers) and in election time they all have to do lots of overtime.
Tabitha said ‘Labor is for people who cannot get real jobs
Liberal is for winners who create businesses’.
I actually have a real job and you dont sound like much of a winner. Sorry I couldnt resist
/me passes Tabitha a cracker.
Who’s a good parrot?
Agreed, LTEP. No more from Tabitha for now.
William Bowe
http://www.pollbludger.com
this is too good from last night not to mention. Sorry VoterBoy but it was so fresh not to mention again
VoterBoy of Over the Water Says:
October 23rd, 2007 at 8:52 pm
OK, just got off the phone from a 3/4hr chat with my senior Liberal staffer mate. If he sees this he’ll kill me, and then he’ll laugh, I suspect… Well, as they say, if you don’t laugh, you cry.
Quotes:
‘â€It’s all over. We’ve just put 40bn in the first week and it’s got us 16 points behind. What do we do now?â€
“We’re tearing our hair out. They’re shooting the alsatians.â€
On the debate: “Rudd stayed on message – kept it simple. Howard was all over the place. He talked about everything that came into his mind. Rudd was talking about his education revolution. Howard says, ‘we’ve got our own education revolution’. You never steal the other guy’s lines. And what was it – he got all irritated and started talking about the culture wars – that he and Keith Windschuttle understood but no one else in Australia did.â€
“There’s only one theme that works for us – the economy – but we can’t stick to that, we’re all over the shop.â€
“We got the normal bounce, we put out $34bn but people have turned off. People thought at first, oh, that’s alright, but then Rudd just said ‘me-too’ and people said ‘that’s fine’.
“You know what our problem is? People are now saying ‘with Rudd, we can have fiscal conservatism and national security and we don’t have to have all the ugly stuff that goes along with you guys’.
I asked what the ugly stuff was. “You know, f*c*ing people over for a dollar on education and health. And then John did the pretend stuff on reconciliation, but then ‘I’m not going to say I’m sorry’. Having tried to demonise every section of the population, Kevin Andrews was forced to go out to find 20,000 Sudanese in Victoria, and even that didn’t work. People can now see they can have what they want without the ugly side.â€
On the Newspoll: “It’s not an aberration. It’s got 1-2% consistency – maybe 3% – with every poll since August.â€
Are they likely to go more negative? (this was what I had predicted on another thread). “We can’t go much more negative. We went on Rudd’s inexperience, but that doesn’t ring true. We went negative on unions – that’s kind of running, but we’re not really cutting through. Now with Gillard we’re trying unions+ communists…. (laughs)â€
I ventured that on the Gillard line, most people these days didn’t even know what a communist was. I also said that if the ALP had any sense, they’d say ‘Here was someone trying to bring these people into mainstream centrist politics and you’re having a go at her.’
He said “Julia Gillard is a perfectly respectable person – we’re mad if we think we can paint her as a left-wing extremist.â€
On Howard: “He’s cranky, he’s rigid.â€
On Costello: “In Saturday’s Age he said he’s running the whole operation, he’ll not only hold the marginals, but he’s going to win Labor seats as well. I thought ‘I’ll put that up on my fridge. And I won’t have to wait long to see how that turns out.’â€
KLASSIC KWOTE: “So, Brian Loughnane, having delivered the historical worst result in Victoria, could be in charge of the worst result Federally.â€
I’m maintaining my prediction of Labor winning 100+ seats. In light of Newspoll, Rudd’s convincing debate win and interest rate rises, I’m upping my prob of Labor win to 95% from 80% before the debate.
Labor will invest in infrastructure, educating the population, and green technologies.
The differences in the Australian economy under Rudd and Howard
may not seem great in the next few years but will become considerable
over the longer term.
Joining and helping create an international emission trading scene
sooner will also be a big boost to the economy in the long run.
(As well as having other important benefits)
So debt is not a problem Paul K… and selling Australian Resources to the Chinese and buying them back as finished goods is okay as well.. What sort of country do we have here.. It is embarassing.. to watch it….
re 129
that is amazing – I hope that’s all true!
The full blown anti-Workchoices campaign has not even started yet…That will surely get some more votes!
Zochling, are you a member of the fruitfly flying circus?
Marky I never said it wasn’t a problem, but that doesn’t mean we’re automatically going into recession. In any case considering you believe in policies which may very well send interest rates through the roof I don’t see how you can point fingers. Perhaps you’d like to enlighten us on how the Greens will solve all our economic problems.
I’m back Tabbie,
Labor pays you a fair days pay for a fair days work.
Liberal pays you work for the dole in the private sector.
William that was fun.
No, but I wish I was
Agree Labor will invest more in education and intellectual technology and put a greater effort into climate change agree… but these things are the peripherals aroung economic policy… Economic policy is about monetary policy and fiscal policy and what are both sides offering on such.. Monetary policy is being used as the main lever.. and interest rates as the stick to slow an economy down… and interest rates take time to have effect on people and should with tax policy be used as a measure to slow our economy down….
Marky Marky, I agree that there are great risks in our economic situation at the moment. However there is real difference between Labor & Liberal policy. Labor correctly identifies that we need to build capacity and productivity.
This involves building infrastructure especially efficient ports and rail freight systems (my professional life is on the transport side, though more in moving people than freight).
Also important is increasing our skills base (and not just by immigration). The way the unis have been knackered, and education made so expensive, is the big problems here.
Also the Tory tax regime has not encouraged participation rates, at least until the 34B “tax policy”. The best parts of this for participation are raising of the low-income tax offset and lowest marginal rate thresholds. And guess what – this is the bit they copied from Swan’s reply to the 2005 budget. He has been pushing the need for these measures for several years now. I get tired of hearing how Labor is me-tooing; far more the other way around.
I would guess Labor’s tax cuts would have been a fair bit less than 31B (due to inflationary pressures) but the Tory 34B bribe forced them to follow suit to a point. Howard has been bragging about this today, the old fraud. What a brag, that he has brought serious inflation risk into the election bidding war.
So without thinking it’ll be easy, Labor is actually focussed on building capacity and productivity, so that gives us a chance to weather the inevitable downturn that’s coming. With Howard & Costello, no hope.
I’m expecting Labor’s spending promises to come, now that their lead is at least holding, will be very much following these principles; rather than trying to win the battle of the billions. At least I sure hope so
Just watched the two market economists on 7:30 report (Eslake from ANZ, Robertson from Macquarie) demolish the Smirk’s few remaining economic credentials. Comnplete agreement that the case for a rate rise is compelling and clear. Eslake rubbished Smirk’s attempt at suggesting that the CPI is within the right band. Apparently the market is at 85% for a rise in Nov, 66% for another rise in Feb.
Costello is on thin ice and trying to have a bit each way. Saying the underlying rate is irrelevant when it is high but arguing that it is all that matters when it’s low. He has lost credibility with a lot of economists.
Never said i was a greenie Paul K… i look at all policies and make up my mind who provides the best policies for the future.. and currently the Greens do because of Climate Change because this is at this moment is the Number issue and will be for the rest of my lifetime… seeing that may be another sixty years… Both major parties on Climate Change have no idea of the harshness of Climate Change each year…
Fires in Australia, Greece and now for what major efforts California… The parties should be saying no to tax cuts and investing in Solar Technology and Wind Farms and Geothermal Technology… Instead their solutions are to provide handouts to farmers on land which we continue to suggest will get rain soon and the drought will break.. how much longer will this bulldust continue…. and we are not in El Nino…
And what is the business community doing……
William, why do you let Tabitha get away with “her” trolling?
Paul K at 136,
This economist never thought he had any credibility to begin with.
Marky @ 144,
Not quite sure how all that is supposed to keep interest rates low and pay off the debts you talk about but to each his own.
Tabitha. annexed.
Glen arrives in 1hr. tops
Possum, do you think the interest rate speculation will have a measurable effect on the next poll (Galaxy?)? Or do you think it will be “business as usual” within the MOE?
Marky Marky, Labor’s first task is to win the election. Everything else they may be able to do depends entirely on that; which is why they had to agree to up the ante on tax cuts, unfortunately.
As for climate change, the solutions will be technological – I agree solar will have a big future; wind farms I’m not so sure about; and don’t dismiss the possibility of cleaner coal technology. Only thing I am sure about is that we need emissions targets and carbon permit trading; that brings the whole thing into mainstream economics, which will stimulate the required r&d.
Greater efficiency in using energy is probably the most important factor of all, and I’m happy that I’m working on engineering projects that promote this.
Marky, sorry, but that is plain nonsense.
Private debt, apart from being a problem to the individual, is not a large problem for the economy at all. We now have massive public savings via super funds.
As for buying goods back from China well, that is actually deflationary. The cost of manufacture there is far less than here hence you pay less, there is no constraint on supply, and the rising A$ deflates the economy by reducing prices through imports . That was the whole point of de regulating the economy.
Unless of course you are now proposing reintroducing “industry protection” via tariffs which artificially inflates prices. That is is extremely infationary.
The Government had better put in an effort to get those trapped gold miners out – they’re Howard’s base vote!
While I still the Morgan figures are dodgy, there are some interesting correlations between swings to Labor and seats where voters are worried about interest rates. Look at Hume for instance. I would never have looked at Hume, but maybe there’s something going on.
The strong vote for Labor in country NSW augers well for all the seats right along the coast – Eden-Monaro, Dobell, Paterson, Cowper, Page etc.
And the support for Labor seems to be particularly strong in NSW, followed by Queensland and Victoria – and guess which three states have most of the seats?
Even in Perth, Labor will break even, or even be slightly ahead, once you distribute the preferences from the Greens and other minor parties.
I assume the people of Perth are happy with the economy not just because of the mining boom wages, but because their house prices have risen so dramatically. Anyone who got a mortgage a few years ago would still be well ahead, despite rises in interest rates. Elsewhere, home-owners ith nortgages are going, or on the verge of going, backwards.
*one time serious moment* Does anyone know where I can find the polls published during the 2004 election?
Tabitha, you are SO PRIMARY SCHOOL. So much for intelligent debate.
Back to the thread:
Forget “It’s the economy stupid”, “It’s the POLLS stupid”
Look at the primary, 2PP, PPM. Remarkably stable, all in landslide territory (even the ‘worst’ 53/47 2PP in Galaxy)
Look at the record number of committed voters- 90% in Newspoll. Howard CANT come back at this point
On the subject of polls:
Is it possible there is some sample variation in weekday polling as compared to weekend polling?
Recall we had the odd Newspoll after the Budget that was taking during the week and showed a lower than normal vote for the ALP.
Is it at all possible that the variation between ACN/Galaxy and Newspoll could be down to weekday/weekend factors?
Tabitha was just sprouting slogans and bumper stickers.
I thought Tabitha could be quite funny at times though she did over do it. Pity if she’s gone for good. Glen will be upset.
Tabitha is Glen
Glen is Tabitha
I am traditionally a Labor/ Greens voter and climate change is the number one issue for me. Mr Howards attitude towards GW is a discrace and he only started ‘believing’ in it when the polls started dramatically going pear shaped for him.
Hopefully Rattus will be political history soon and the Rudd government will take this issue more seriously.
Mr I’m calling Warringah for Zochling,
(BTW, do you have an abbreviation you’d like to be called because that’s quite a keyboard full
)
Galaxy is a poll I neither keep a record of, nor particularly pay that much attention to in the ordinary scheme of things. Their preference distributions at times border on fantasy, their timing is suspicious and their results are unreproducible by any other polling agency 50% of the time.
Will interest rates move Galaxy? Who knows. Will the political mind control rays from the space harpie Zorkon on the planet Betelgeuse 7 move the Galaxy Vote?
Equally likely in this possums opinion.
Labors spending options wysiwg on providing such things are running out… because they continue to metoo on policy.. and if the economy runs out of steam… its spending options will dissappear..
As we have one of the lowest levels of taxation in the OECD…. and Labor intends to have a surplus 1 per cent of GDP so where will the money come from for Labors’ policies and Howards for that matter… and this education revolution.. Howard favours funding elite schools.. and guess what Labor intends to keep this until 2012 and increase grants to such schools in the process..
And on Health care with an aging population Rudd intends to keep the expensive 30 per cent rebate for people on private health insurance and keep the safety net which provides great benefits to wealthy electorates…
And on workchoices and productivity… Rudd intends to keep major elements of it and delay major changes until 2010 making such policy options on productivity more difficult as a result…
Nonetheless i do agree that Labor will be better overall it is the metooism that is huge concern and at this stage if it continues i must ask what are differences between the parties on major public policy…
On everything else their are differences.. Media policy, Indigenous policy, Funding for minority groups, Foreign Policy,Enviromental policy( Kyoto), Housing policy… list goes on..
The more I see inflation data, the more I think this is a good election to lose. Though the ALP will run hard on the “look at the mess they left us” line. But jeez how crappy would it be if the ALP finally gets in and finds out the party’s over, and it’s time to tighten our belts.
It would cause one to look back over the last 6 years and think, what a bloody waste.
And while I’m t it, I’ll make a prediction about Galaxy.
At some stage through the campaign, their polls will converge to the ACN/Newspoll band and stay that way until the election.
I’ll make a prediction about ACN, Newspoll and Galaxy – they will all claim on 25 Nov to have been the most accurate.
Glen, don’t put your hard earned on Farmer in Macarthur, he is very vulnerable. His personal appeal has waned severely (he has achieved SFA). Campbelltown is rock solid Labor, Camden is Lib, but not that strongly (Labor MLA returned in March), and the estates in between are classic mortgage belt, with the added hurt of stagnant or dropping house values. The margin is really inflated due to the 2004 “who do you trust” BS. November 7 will hurt him REAL bad if the RBA pulls the trigger. Rudd’s not been spending more time in Macarthur than Latham (a Macathur resident) did in 04 to waste his precious campaigning time. The revolution could be nearer than you realise.
As for 98, as others have noted – not a chance. Beazley got a 40.1% primary. Rudd will have a primary over 45% even if he starts stuffing up. Howard is going to be pushing it up hill with a stick to get a primary of 40%, and he doesn’t have One Nation preferences to get him home in the “Battler” marginals.
Rudd can easily get to the required 75 seats (+Windsor) without a single gain in WA or Qld and a swing of under 3.5%
http://www.abc.net.au/elections/federal/2007/calculator/?swing=state&national=0&nsw=4.9&vic=5&qld=0&wa=0&sa=5.4&tas=2.7&act=0&nt=2.9&retiringfactor=1
All of the polls are showing these swings as being VERY conservative. The Newspoll breakdowns were showing 5% swings to Labor in WA as their worst result. The coalition will probably win a majority of the vote in WA (and maybe QLD) but still lose seats. Every other state will show a solid Labor majority on TPP.
Possum @ 160
ICWFZ is acceptable. The longer name just amused me. I would so love to see the Mad Monk go.
I’m interested that you say that Galaxy’s timing is suspicious. You mean not conducted at the same time each cycle? I’ve also heard murmurings that Galaxy’s questions are not quite fair.
Lomandra: because I find “her” perversely amusing in small doses.
Is it:
Sub Prime, Minister
or
Sub, Prime Minister
I would hate to get the punctuation wrong.
The Libs have now hit $3.00 on Centrebet.
McKew at the amazing odds of $2.70 – you should be all over that. I suspect a bit of assisting there from Lib faithfull – imagine the press if it got to the stage that Howard was considered unlikely to hold his seat.
It would be the signal for a rout.
When is the next poll?
Ha! Thanks, Centaur, for putting my conversation on repeat. And yes, Zenk, it is true – I did have that conversation with my senior Liberal staffer mate yesterday. Whether he’s got an accurate grasp of the situation is another matter, although he’s one of the more level-headed among that sorry band. Until now, my natural pessimism and utter lack of scientific grounding has made it difficult for me to accept the implications of all the polls and pseph chat one finds on these sites. Yesterday’s chat was probably the first time I’ve genuinely thought that Howard’s in for a belting.
Plus… have you read the contemptuous and yet remarkably well-argued responses to Dennis Shang-a-lang’s Oz piece on Howard’s pensioner bribe-fest? http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/dennisshanahan/index.php/theaustralian/comments/coalition_offers_billions_in_cash/
They are not breaking through with anyone.
Trebles and cyanide capsules all round!
ICWFZ…
Can I buy a vowel?
On the Galaxy timing, I simply say to people to compare the Galaxy poll results to the political events that were happening at the time they were published and draw whatever conclusions you wish from that.Maybe it was just pure luck.
“You know what our problem is? People are now saying ‘with Rudd, we can have fiscal conservatism and national security and we don’t have to have all the ugly stuff that goes along with you guys’.
Centaur (and Voterboy), I reckon that is about the most concise summation of the Coalition’s problem I’ve yet seen.
164 Grog
Can’t see the demand from China/India ending any time in the next decade. Targeted spending on infrastructure constraints (roads, rail, ports etc) to allow the exports to get out instead of unproductive pork feeding of “special interests” and the economy will be just fine.
#165 Ratsak – Thanks for that post. Very reassuring!
Yep, that is indeed correct. Just as you described it.
She is definitely blonde, William.
Ratsak
OATES, Meg Australian Labor Party 961 50.55 -1.51
FARMER, Pat Liberal 940 49.45 +1.51
These are the 2004 2PP results for the Campbelltown central polling booth last election – it was quite close.
Not sure Campbelltown and its suburbs are rock solid Labor. At least they weren’t in 2004.
But I hope you are right this time.
I have heard word that polling conducted in Macarthur has the seat on 50-50, and what I have heard from people while campaigning confirms a much larger swing in this electorate than the nationwide swing.
I think it’s possible that Galaxy is weighting by the last election result. Since young people are harder to interview, it would explain why they have Greens vote and Tory vote both higher than all other pollsters, as that happened at the last election among young people.
On midweek polls been more pro-Tory than weekend polls, Morgan ph has been taken Wed/Thur for the last 3 months, and has had Labor landslide results.
100
tabitha Says:
If only it was true. Today the parliamentary Liberal party are a bunch of backward looking, unelectable extremists. A pretty irrelevant monoculture.
Labor is for people who have an education, and know the past, whilst planning for the future.
Liberal is for people that are ignorant and only know hate.
I don’t think this is a “good election to lose”. The inflation problem is solely due to bad management (avoidable supply constraints) and is fixable. Indeed, given the very fortunate economic circumstances at present, the Liberals deserve to lose for letting it happen. There are many issues people want to see change on. Whoever changes them stands to stay in power for some time.
(Purely personal rave on the future…)
Fortunately, the Chinese and Indians are not about to start dismantling their new factories, so I can’t see things stopping economically in the medium term unless maybe someone of Bushian-stupidity starts a few wars. (You can never predict the future.) This assumes that as soon as the Republicans are turfed next year, Kyoto will be signed and we will start to solve the world’s real long term problems, which are not actually economic IMO. Even then, as anyone who has read the Stern report would appreciate, solving problems like climate change and oil shortages will reduce growth by maybe 10%, not create a recession, and in fact create some long term jobs. Lets not be too pessimistic, after all we’re about to get a new government
Hope you’re right Let it End.
On a non-inflation issue, I thought the Crikey article about Nelson as LIb leader was a bad sign for the LIbs. Not so much the Nelson aspect, but the fact that such discussion is goingon (and reported). If the discussion ever hits the MSM it’s lights out for the Libs.
Ratsak @173 – absolutely right – and my mate really emphasised that as he was saying it.
And there’s no escape from that for the Libs.
(Hate to sound obsessive, but just went back to look at the Shanahan article on the oldies bribe and the comments in response. 45 comments in all. One is rather vague and off-topic. The remaining 44 are strongly anti-Howard. Quite a few of these also have a go at Shanahan. Not one – not one – is pro-Howard. I think we might be about to witness a massive and historic collapse of the Liberal vote.)
Aside from Bennelong, which seat do you think the ALP HQ gets most giggly about when late at night they look at the polls and think “jeez would could win ______”.
North Sydney?
Higgins and Warringah
186
It would have to be the trio of Bennelong, Wentworth and North Sydney, considering that none of them have been ever held by Labor and it would knock out the PM and the ministers for two of the big issues which have brought the Libs unstuck (climate change and IR).
VoterBoy,
I agree. What is Howard actually going to achieve with the oldies vote-buy? It just confirms votes already in his pocket, and only embitters all those of pre-retirement age who will have to pay $4B in taxes for them. They aren’t even means tested, so they will go to some retirees who are assett rich, making them very vulnerable to attack. Howard needs to gain support, and I can’t see him gaining any new votes from that measure. This isn’t the US where many young people don’t vote and the old dominate. Those over 65 are a growing number, but they are still a minority of voters. The interest rate news will anger middle-aged people with mortgages (and perhaps the young who can’t aford to acquire a house in the first place) and teh pensioner vote-buy won’t make any diference to them.
As a follow on question, in terms of rates of home buying, does anyoen know which marginals (in the 16 seat pendulum) have the highest rate of people paying mortgages?
I believe the campaign has been great for the alp so far.
Yes we only have 4 weeks to go to the election and they are looking all right.
I still believe the libs could win this election (just like the alp could) at the moment i think its 55/45 to the alp in terms of percentage (just like the polls) however this could change in the blink of an eye.
If it doesn’t change within the next 2-3 weeks and the polls are still the same with 1-2 weeks to go, then the alp may just be able to breathe a little easier.
Kevin Rudd has played this quite well up till now, once the main stream media gets a hint that the coalition have thrown in the towel (if they throw in the towel) will they start abandoning them? (has this already started happening?)
Warringah would have them well past the giggling stage!
Can someone tell me what Belinda Neal had on her Weet-Bix this morning?
This genius suggested increasing the rate of the GST. Rudd and Swan were both delighted with her insightful contribution.
Didn’t Neal lose Robertson twice as the ALP candidate? From what I’ve heard she was a dud candidate both times, especially in 1998 when she should have won the seat easily.
How was she pre-selected again? Does she have photos of someone?
She must have some pretty strong strings!
So what happened to the narrowing?
I reckon we’ll find it in the same place as the budget bounce.
With the Reserve Bank almost certain to lift interest rates for the sixth time since Howard promised to keep them at record lows in 2004, things can only get worse.
The poor old Libs are looking awfully threadbare.
Still, it seems that there are still a few fanatics around prepared to spruik a Liberal win. That’s the spirit.
They’re a bit like Communists who, after the fall of the old Soviet Union, were unable to believe what had happened, unable to accept it and completely incapable of moving on. They may be completely stuck in the past, but I have to admit that I admire their ideological purity and commitment to the cause.
They’re every bit as good as the Trots.
Grog, I think any discussion on Nelson as a leader at any time is absolutely disastrous for the Libs. I would only ever consider him if the entire party meeting could be held in a phone booth where it would be a choice of 1.
Socrates, I do agree with most of what you say except for one point. Unfortunately, though no pollie will actually say it, one large factor fuelling inflation is just plain private greed, people creating too much demand by spending beyond their ability to pay. In the end they, and not the govt, will suffer the pain that will eventually be the consequence of that.
ShowsOn
Get your facts right you wrong, where did you come up with this BS.
ice444
On media reporting – yes IMO. I thought Andrew Bolt on Lateline on Monday night was absolutely doing just that. He seemed positively annoyed with Gerard Henderson, almost saying “I warned you, and now look at this mess..”
In Adelaide, the Advertiser has even been reporting its seat-by-seat polls (devastatingly pro-Labor) fairly impartially to my perception in the past few days. Whereas before they were too pro-Liberal for a Joe Hockey press release. Seeing the polls, you would have to be congenitally pro-Liberal not to rexamine your attitudes lately if you were reporting in the media.
An interest rate rise at such stage of the campaign will put an end to the political careers of both Howard and Costello. Howard will have to go and get another life and Costello will give us plenty of enjoyment as leader of the opposition until he gets knifed.
Hi Lom.
This close to the date that really matters no party (correct me if I’m wrong) has had the sort of lead(on average) that the ALP currently enjoys, without handsomely winning government. Looks like Labor winning between 85 and 95 seats to me.
I wonder what the chasers are up to tonight?
Gaynor 192, Neal must be the dumbest candidate to mention that bit about the GST – it is guaranteed to fuel the coming ad campaign. JWH and Costello have nothing left to go for, so wait for the ads.
With WA jumping into the ‘who knows’ basket in recent days, I am hoping Labor gets it sorted out long before the votes from Hasluck, Stirling, Cowan, Swan et al come across the picket fence.
In NSW I have pencilled in Parramatta, Lindsay, Eden Monaro and Dobell as Labor gains and left out Bennelong and Wentworth>
I have left the door open for Page, Paterson and Robertson.
The Labor candidate for Robertson did herself no favours today in overcoming the 6.9 2PP margin by virtually claiming Rudd promised her a reveiw of the distrubution of the GST in favour of NSW {Link below}
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/10/24/2069524.htm?site=elections/federal/2007
If Labor gets 5 of the 7 I have nominated in NSW you can put down the glasses, it will be clear that WA will not be needed to win this election and if Bennelong and/or Wentworth fall too, a Ruddslide beyond 25 seats is on.
for distrubution read distribution. doh.
Chaser is brilliant as usual (Tassie 1hr ahead).
Watch out for “the twitch”!!
Let it end- pure economic rationalist rubbish…
So it is okay if China racks up huge Government surpluses which it is the highest in the world by a mile… And we don’t and we allow our resources to go to them… why can’t we use them here and make the goods and then sell them to the Chinese and the rest of the world… no can’t do that we havn’t got the brains or inclination here… what kind of economy are we running.. oh let the asian countries do it and let us buy their cheap goods because it is deflationary… what happens to an economy when the resources run at ? Yep China has all the machines, skills and technology to do things why Australians continue importing… Are you for real….
And on foreign debt… sorry wrong again…
Our interest rates other than New Zealand are the highest in the OECD and rising… and this usual argument that public savings cause interest rates… pure economic rationalist dribble…Fair dinkum go back and read your economic rationalist textbook…written by a rich techoncrat…
If our interest rates were determined by this than Japan’s interest rates would be far higher and they have more government debt and so would America…
No relationship…what so ever
Foreign debt makes them higher because it is about expectations… regarding inflation, savings, the future, and the amount required to service GDP and we have the second highest debt to GDP ratio in the world…
Moreover debt ratios effect interest rates because you have to borrow money to service such and high debts mean that borrowing markets see such large levels as unsustainable and a significant supply burden for such markets thus feeding into mechanisms that control such domestic interest rates… Further as demand for money increases as the government is fueling by not borrowing interest rates rise….
Let it end i am sorry your right wing logic is pure fairies at the bottom of the garden stuff….
82
William Bowe Says:
October 24th, 2007 at 7:01 pm
Thanks for clarify the facts. I am a strong believer in establishing and maintaining an open and transparent selection process. the more we move to the implementation of electronic vote counting systems the more important it is that information and data is readily available. I suggest “ShowsOn” reads the submissons and evidence transcriptions of the Victorian Parliamentary review and also takes another look at various reports on Fairvote.org then maybe he/she will begin to gain a better idea of the importance of making relevant data available. Public elections are not just about`providing feed and fodder for the media industry. Scrutiny of the ballot is just as important as feeding the media…
Socrates 183 – I don’t fully agree that China is bulletproof. There is going to be a recession in the US next year. This is due to the sub prime mortgage problem as a lot of those loans revert to higher interest rates over the next six months. As the US economy is 70% driven by consumer spending, including lots of stuff from China (and other Asian countries) there would be a significant effect on China’s economy. This in turn would mean less sales to China of our mineral resources and a slowdown, but not recession, here.
189
The so called “oldie” pork is not about winning votes, it’s desperation to limit the size of the rout.
Another like this week and the Coalition will be pushing the women and children aside as they try to get their fat behinds into the lifeboats. At that point the MSM will be calling them a rabble, unelectable etc etc and even the rusted on Liberals in Bennelong will have to put Howard down like a geriatric dog.
This is like a Roman circus, with lots of body parts. Bring on the lions!
Gee the Labor staffers are out in force tonight…looks like you all drew the short straws…
204
Absolute nonsense, however you go on believing whatever suits you Marky, no problem to me.
And what are you Glen…
Grog #200
Yes, but how did she get pre-selected again?
She’s a dud.
I am not a staffer that makes me a minority on this blog…aside from being a Tory.
Glen have you checked out the new Liberal Party Website yet?
http://www.lies.com/
Gaynor,
Belinda Neal has lived in Woy Woy Bay with husband John for over 20 years. Together they have raised their two sons on the Central Coast.
Belinda has experience as a Gosford City Councilor and as a Senator. Her priorities have always been local jobs, roads, services and infrastructure. She has a practical working knowledge of government to offer the electorate of Robertson.
Belinda established and ran a small business in Erina. Belinda knows that viable local businesses and a strong economy mean more local jobs.
She was a Foundation Board member of Central Coast Mariners, and is deeply committed to the Umina United Soccer Club. Belinda has been involved in many local groups including the Community Tenancy Scheme, the Central Coast Women’s Health Centre and Child Abuse Prevention Services.
Belinda’s work and life experiences will provide fresh thinking for the Central Coast. She will be a strong local voice and a vital part of Kevin Rudd’s team.
Glen,
Your future is on Telly
Sunday 28.10.2007 – 9.30pm – SBS Television
Anyone know when the next polls will be released.
Morgan 26/10?
Newspoll 30/10
Will ACN and Galaxy be fortnightly from now?
I have been waiting for an updated Galaxy of Bennelong.
Please – any info would be great!
Perhaps you’ve checked out the new Labor Party website….
http://www.communism.com/
So statistics lie Let it end… I suppose at least I look analyse them and see the relationships… and yep i wasn’t fooled by the Milton Freidmans of the world.. who was all about making the wealthy wealthier…
Joined the club Let it End… Yep
Marky Mark,
I am an economist (not that that should mean much).
I have been banging on about the debt problem for a few years now.
In my opinion we have gone beyond the point where much can be done.
Before 1996 our manufacturing industries were growing at record levels with the help of pretty good Industry policy from Labor. In theory if this has kept trending the way it was we would not have anywhere near the current account (and debt) mess that we have now.
Instead in his infinite wisdom Howard dismantled all of the Labor industry policy (including importantly the 150% R&D offset). Since 1996 the manufacturing industry has gone backwards at a record rate and we now have dangerous levels of debt.
If Labor got in today it would take at least 10 years of solid industry support to turn the economy around from a debt economy.
The likelihood is that the next downturn (which will have to come from China) will happen within that timeframe.
You have to not think of the current economy in the cirumstances it is in now. You must think of how it would currently handle a world recession. With our current levels of debt, you don’t have to be an economist to imagine that what will happen will be disaterous when the downturn finally hits.
AM, please stop repeatedly posting the same comment.
William Bowe
http://www.pollbludger.com
#214,
Good one, had a good chuckle I did.
Glen,
I’m not a Labor staffer (in fact I’m not a member of any party but that doesn’t stop me wanting to see the Rat sacked) but I can understand you feeling outnumbered tonight. Obviously all the Liberal staffers are desperately rewriting their CVs and are too busy to post…
221
Ok
I believe the next poll will be closer to 55-45 than 58-42. Amazing the power of one poll though.
Paul K where are you tonight? Are you gonna give us some of that old time Democrat anger? Filling up on mung beans?
Besides AM, isn’t this the new Liberal party website?
http://www.funeralsaustralia.com.au/
#218
That was quite funny too. A bit old school maybe but still amusing.
Marky at 204 said:
“why can’t we use them [Australian resources] here and make the goods and then sell them to the Chinese and the rest of the world”
FOr the simple reason that if we made, say DVD players here they’d cost 200 bucks a unit, the Chinese can make them for, retail, $50 a unit.
Tell me Marky, how many people around the word do you think will buy a $200 DVD player rather than a $50 ine that are exactly the same in quality?
That’s why we dont make them
It’s called comparative advantage.
When the resources run out, we’ll adapt – like everyone else in the world dpes, and has always done.
Now I agree, we need a lot more on the education front, but but we should always do, first and foremost, what we are best at.
And at the moment, we are better at selling raw materials (as well as supporting industry products like mining software, engineering technology etc right down to human resources like project management skills) that we are at making stuff that others can make better, for cheaper.
On foreign debt, you must compare stocks with stocks and flows with flows.
SO foreign debt must be compared to assets, and debt servicing must be compared to income.COmparing stocks with flows is a mugs game that serves absolutely no practical use.
I dont think anyone has said that public savings cause interest rates. In Australia, global rates, domestic inflation and the value of the AUD is the major cause of interest rates (although the latter 2 are intertwined to some extent because of the foreign impact on out inflation targeting regime of the RBA) because of our instituional set up, and the biggest medium-long term domestic threat to inflation is labour shortages.
This isnt fairies at the bottom of the garden stuff – its the mechanics of the trading economy that gives 5 billion people their livelihoods and standards of living.
But this isnt the right forum for this argument so I’ll leave it at that.
ESJ at 215
Good one ESJ, straight cut n paste from the Labor website, precious. God you must be bored Ed.
What they forgot to mention was she has little political sense {see my posting at 201}.
Once again she has stuck her foot in it.
Maybe she and the Labor candidate for Boothby can do a Kath-n-Kim duo in the HOR if the electorate are gullible enough to give them the nod. It would, at least, be slightly more entertaining than Pauline Hanson’s ‘please explain’, just.
Jarusa… Totally agree with everything you have said…
The next recession will not be a recession it will be a depression… why debt.. people working casually, now 30 per cent of the workforce…
and agree with you about a lack of investment in manufacturing and university education and productivity into the intellectual requirements of the world…
Jarusa this would help curb the debt situation or slightly sustain it but now it is to late… it is out of control…
But don’t forget the fact that before 96 the rationalists were having an affect on the economy with tariff cuts which were to quick… privatisation of the government assets.. .telecommunications.competition. what a joke this has become… and Labor will do something about it… someone please tell how it overcome the regulation dilemma…
Airlines and Commonwealth Bank… why how many airlines have gone down since… Commonwealth Bank and poor working conditions for people.. realistically the only people who benefited were the shareholders….
ESJ #215
Thanks for the information. I’m sure she is a fine person.
But fair dinkum, she’s a political lemon. What would inspire her to speculate about increasing the rate of the GST? Howard will clutch at it like a drowning man clutches at straws.
She is a 2 time election loser who owes her pre-selection to her powerful union husband.
Not a good look.
I think I listened to the news on the way home. Labor promises better roads in Melbourne, talks about moving goods more efficiently. The Liberal promise two military high schools. Have the chasers taken over the Liberal campaign, what is going on?
Edward,
What is this obsession you have with me and the Democrats? I’m not a Democrat but I don’t know how I’m supposed to prove a negative. Anyway it seems like the thought of it gives you the jollies. Keep living in your alternate universe.
annnnd bingo!… told ya….
heya Glen!
right on time
that bus rides a killer aint it
Apologies for my typo’s – tapping away on the verandah in the dark seems to do that. I’ve turned the light on!
Shanahan prepares to slit wrists:
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22458164-5013871,00.html
At least the candidate for Boothby wouldn’t have to say ‘look at moi, look at moi, look at moi’. She is pretty easy on the red blooded heterosexual eye… one saving grace I suppose.
Glen,
I went to a Labor Party fundraiser once, but that’s the extent of it (and if there was ever anything to put me off joining the Labor Party, it was that). It sounds as if you’re beginning to show those signs of paranoia that were once the preserve of the left in the ‘dark days’ of what seemed to be unbreakable Liberal rule – ie. people who genuinely couldn’t understand why anyone wouldn’t want to vote for Clyde Holding or Keith Wright or Mad Mark, and therefore assumed that undemocratic dealings were afoot.
My only concern for you, however, is that your side is not out of power yet, and to show such signs of suspicion at such an early stage could be seriously damaging to your health. Relax. You still have the perks of office. And you have another month at least of hope and sunshine, before the roof falls in on you and utterly destroys everything you have ever worked for or believed in.
ESJ, Paul K is not Paul Kavanagh.
forgive me Marky for prior suggestion of concern troll status, sadly it seems you do actually believe it after all.
ShowsOn 236, that has to be the most sensible thing I’ve ever heard Shanahan say.
ShowsOn at 236 – I love those Oz vids. It’s sort of a cross between community television and political paint by numbers.
I particularly like the current edition of the Oz sticky taped to the wall behind him.
PC 242, and would it kill them to buy a decent microphone?
Grog – have sympathy.
The Oz runs at a loss you know.
228 Possum
Yep, that’s what I was saying as well.
#236
Another Rat getting ready to jump the sinking ship?
OMG …………….. even if he can’t bring himself to say it in print, this might be as close as he can let himself go …….. Howard is done, gone, kaput, finished – if Shanahan can be this upfront and honest about the coalitions problems ….. Wonder what his print story will be tomorrow?
Give the fags away Poss, then you wont have to sit out on the verandah mate.
19 Nostradamus Yes and a house with a white picket fence, god didn’t make little green apples.
And Utah is such a loverly place. I see the sunshine beaming down over me.
BetFair has updated their odds on RBA November
interest rate change:
No Change: $2.32
Rise 0.25%: $1.25
Around mid-day today, the odds were:
NoChange: $2.1 / Rise.25%:$1.35
Bluebottle, I’ll have you know its a fine cigar with a cheeky red.
Apologies Poss, I forgot you are celebratin already. 90 seats was it on your current poll based guesstimates ?
It looks like it was a really long day for Dennis….
Bluebottle @237:
Adam has already highlighted her – forget Cornes, check out
this candidate!
(No, not Abbott, scroll down to the bottom).
All I can say is, she can be my Chief Whip anytime
Scotty Says:
October 24th, 2007 at 6:57 pm
I have not been monitoring the performance of Morgan and limited for some years now but 15 years ago there were real issues concerning the Morgan polls which regulatory showed up various anominalies in the data. They always tended to overstate the ALP vote in what was considered by some to be an attempt top influence the outcome by providing an inflated projection. Whilst it is always interesting to follow the polls the fact remains that the general swing means as little or as much as measuring the average temperature across Australia. The fact remains that the micro climate varies significantly from region to regions/ Electorate to electorate. the breakdown of polls into electorates is of more interest.
I have found that most public opinion polls are only really good to ascertain the results of the Senate. But again they need to be broken down into State electorates. The split between City and Country published by Morgan makes this task difficult to undertake.
Off the top of my head and subject to the finalisation of Above-the-line preferences the Greens need to secure more then 8.5% of the ballot to secure the last spot. They need the ALP to top 43% in order to collect the ALP surplus (Currently the ALP in Vic is showing at around 52% to 53% a potential surplus of 10%. if this holds the Greens could be feeding the ALP or the ALP surplus will become part of the wasted 14% quota)
If the Liberal Party/NP vote is lower then 36% then they might pickup on Liberal Preferences depending on the level of support of the NP who would be expected to collect any Liberal surplus before the Greens. Chances are the Greens could once again fall short.
We should know the exact thresholds once the registered above-the-line preference data is available. Using the available poll results we can then calculate the required thresholds.
War is Peace, Ignorance is Strength, Freedom is Slavery
So says Glen…
Julie @247,
To re work the old joke….
Howard and Shanahan are surrounded by 1000 rampaging ALP types wielding the latest polls with messianic fervour.
Howard turns to his faithful companion and says “Looks like the jig is up and these ALP types are about to do us over”.
Shanahan replies “what do you mean we, Liberal scum”.
Mine in 85-87 seats for Labor as we speak, unless Rudd has an implosion and scares the horses big time.
A cheeky redhead was that Poss?
Oldie but a goodie GG
Possum whilst you are right on comparative advantage which i agree with you but I see no advantage in selling our products overseas for someone elses benefit and yes it is China but not only them and whilst you use the argument about cheap imports what about making great products and selling them to markets like Sweden or Japan or ourselves…
Look at these countries surely they have not got significant advantage regarding land and resources that we have… population yes to a degree…
Especially Sweden… worldclass companies such as Nokia
We should be investing in education and intellectual capacity but instead we are to busy investing in tax cuts, freeways and flags in schools…and we are to busy watching Australian Idol and Big Brother…
And we don’t the people well that is why 30 per cent of the workforce is on casual employment…
And regarding interest rates don’t disagree that domestic situations have an affect and the dollar due to our geograpical position in the world, the drought also will also have an affect on these inflationary effects.. but sorry my view regarding foreign debt is different and believe it has an affect..
And this view that no one has talked about the relationship between government debt and interest rates well that for twenty years has been the main argument for the rationalists to reducing government debt….anyway enough said but you have made some good points which i agree with….
John Howard’s Aliases Add yours here:
http://scatt.bilegrip.com/s8.jhnames.html
This websie is well worth a read, very enlightening.
Break out the beer, klaxons and those large happy fingers: Helen Coonan head to head with Anthony Albanese live, no punches pulled, in lycra with jelly on Lateline. (actually, no lycra)
This has to be THE most riveting panel on Lateline EVER!!!
Our good lady host seems pleased though – she’s interviewing real, live politicians. Pity she can’t say a word without stumbling over it…
My only hope is that if Krudd wins his IR policy and his economic policy starts a recession so i can laugh at all the fools who elected Labor thinking they could manage the economy it will be priceless…maybe even a short lived Scullin administration could end up being Krudd’s legacy lol!
Bluey, 89.
And then that cheeky bugger Mal Mackerras came in and copied me
The hide of some people I tell ya!
#168 Charles, please check with Glen on all matters related to punctuation.
yawn… goodnight…
Glen – dude – there’s going to be a recession anyway. Howard’s overheated the economy, China’s about to go bung – these things are global. Whether it’s Costello or Swan or whoever succeeds Costello (if they win) – there’s going to be a recession.
258,
GG –
“Howard turns to his faithful companion and says “Looks like the jig is up and these ALP types are about to do us overâ€.
Shanahan replies “what do you mean we, Liberal scumâ€.”
Ah, yes, we will have to see what he writes in the morning
… It does seem though, at least by his standards which are different from most, that he is beginning to peek at political life without his rose coloured glasses now.
It is raining here in Sydney tonight, probably the first rain we have seen in well over a month, perhaps 2 to 3 months. Seems appropriate as it was raining figuratively on the Libs today
Re comments about media rats, etc. (esp. Mr Shanahanahanhan)
The Australian has a nice piece on this today. Clearly Gerard Henderson is being set up as the fall guy.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22638826-5013948,00.html
Shan Fein (Myself Alone), on the other hand, is given a get out of jail free card, as in ‘I told them to shift ages ago, but no one listened…’ He is truly, the Thinking Man’s Andrew Bolt.
255
Ophuph Hucksake Says:
October 24th, 2007 at 9:50 pm
Bluebottle @237:
Adam has already highlighted her – forget Cornes, check out
this candidate!
Ah, yeah, I want to go into slavery too now, how about it Glen, are u in ?
charles,
Labor promises better roads for Melbourne,
WHen I was in Melbourne the only thing that I can honestly say was better about Melb than Sydney was the roads,
Our roads in Sydney are horrific, maybe he should have prommised better roads for Sydney instead
Glen, it is not a sign of stupidity to say nothing when you really have nothing to say, unless of course you still insist on saying it.
Stuart,
Your surname wouldn’t be Hanrahan by any chance?
Coonan v Albanese what about Conroy… i was hoping to hear his vision regarding Broadband… and how he was planning to get Telstra to agree with regulation when in office and get them to allow competition in regional areas once broadband infrastructure was implemented.
Hanrahan?? My surname is infinitely funnier than that…
Just heard that Labor have selected a fourth Senate candidate in Victoria (Marg Lewis, who was a candidate for Northern Victoria in the last state upper house election). The fact that they’ve done this at such a late stage may or may not be an indicator as to what someone’s polling is telling them about Labor’s prospects in Victoria.
(That said, even with the best plausible set of preferences – Greens preferencing Labor over Liberal, Family First splitting their ticket and Liberals preferencing Labor over Greens – one imagines Labor would need at least 48% primary to have any realistic chance of having enough of a surplus over the third quota. In turn, given the drift to minor parties between the House and the Senate, this means they probably need 52% or so primary in the HoR).
Gaynor.
Edwards great summary of the talents of Belinda Neal left out her only qualification for office. The husband “John” coyly referred to is John Della Bosca, right wing powerbroker in the infamous Sussex St machine headquarters of the NSW ALP.
Re Ms Cornes of Boothby. Don’t write her off. A friend of mine in the electorate has met her and says she is very personable and intelligent in person. If a swing is on it will most probably allow her to surf to victory unless she has some outstandingly off-putting attributes. The election will in almost all electorates be Rudd versus Howard, with the individual candidates just proxies. I recall in 1972 in my then electorate a most unpleasant candidate being washed into office on the Whitlam swing. His personality only caught up with him, plus some newly revealed personal weaknesses (he was cheating on his wife and several kids with his campaign managers wife!) as the tide started to ebb in the 1974 double dissolution election. Cornes strikes me as precisely the kind of candidate the the ALP could use, a “non politician”, a battler who put herself through an education to achieve some success in life, and if succesfull in this election could take some shifting in future. Much of the criticism of her comes from those who criticise the ALP for being too inbred. She could be an antidote to that weakness.
#277 Not one of the Ramsbottoms are you Stuart?
Read up on Dr. Patrcia Peterson [Ind. candidate]
” An academic who has researched and published political books and articles in journals internationally, she has worn many hats, including relationship expert on radio 2UE, a guest panelist on Beauty and the Beast and a karate expert teaching victims of domestic violence self-defence.”
Oh my, all that and beautiful. The karate expert part is disturbing though. LOL.
#263, AM,
I never knew that Latham came up with the name Bonsai for our friend Mr Howard, you learn something every day. I think Gollum Jr is a corker.
No Boll – but I have had a chat with Sid Sidebottom… just picture it – an actual side bottom…
stuart,
Your 269 has all the hallmarks of “We’ll all be rooned, said Hanarahan”.
Marky at 262
Marky – people will always watch Big Bogan
That’s just life.As sad and depressing as it may be, it’s just the way it happens (and I cant complain, for some reason I’ve developed a liking for Californication and that strange show Supernatural)
The vikings might have Nokia, but we have BHP.Each to their own at what they’re best at.
A fair chunk of casual employment isnt a result of people not being able to find an alternative.A lot of it is actually people wanting to work casual hours because it suits their particular conditions in life. As a strange example, I suppose I’m actually working as a casual at the moment with my Crikey stuff and a few other bits and pieces.
The ABS runs a great stat on the labour underutilisation rate. That is the best measure of how many people have jobs but want more hours and its the lowest it’s been for decades.
With foreign debt, it’s not so much the debt you have, it’s what you do with it.
Now I agree that we’ve p*ssed a fair whack of it right up the wall lately, with most of out foreign debt actually deriving from our banking (and financial intermediary) sector to fund, essentially, home loans.
But that’s because it was cheaper to do it that than any alternative.
It would be great of all that went into some kind of productive investment – but people will always need to buy homes and they just happened to do so using foreign capital sourced via their local bank.
On that front, residential property investment should probably have a fair amount of its special treatment gutted in an ideal world – but we dont live in that ideal world, and any government that proposed to do such a thing wouldnt find themselves in government for much longer.
What is that quote, GG? What does it mean? “Roon” – is that a verb? That rhymes with my surname – this is getting weirdo…
Can someone please tell me what’s doing with the independent candidate in Gilmore?
Is this a gee up?
http://www.abc.net.au/elections/federal/2007/guide/gilm.htm
Adam, do you know anything about this? Antony, do you? Anybody?
263
AM Says:
October 24th, 2007 at 9:54 pm
John Howard’s Aliases Add yours here:
http://scatt.bilegrip.com/s8.jhnames.html
This websie is well worth a read, very enlightening.
…
To me, he will always be His Trackdacks, The Grump of Kirribilli
#283 next-door neighbours of the Frontbums I presume.
SAID HANRAHAN by John O’Brien
“We’ll all be rooned,” said Hanrahan,
In accents most forlorn,
Outside the church, ere Mass began,
One frosty Sunday morn.
The congregation stood about,
Coat-collars to the ears,
And talked of stock, and crops, and drought,
As it had done for years.
“It’s looking crook,” said Daniel Croke;
“Bedad, it’s cruke, me lad,
For never since the banks went broke
Has seasons been so bad.”
“It’s dry, all right,” said young O’Neil,
With which astute remark
He squatted down upon his heel
And chewed a piece of bark.
And so around the chorus ran
“It’s keepin’ dry, no doubt.”
“We’ll all be rooned,” said Hanrahan,
“Before the year is out.”
“The crops are done; ye’ll have your work
To save one bag of grain;
From here way out to Back-o’-Bourke
They’re singin’ out for rain.
“They’re singin’ out for rain,” he said,
“And all the tanks are dry.”
The congregation scratched its head,
And gazed around the sky.
“There won’t be grass, in any case,
Enough to feed an ass;
There’s not a blade on Casey’s place
As I came down to Mass.”
“If rain don’t come this month,” said Dan,
And cleared his throat to speak -
“We’ll all be rooned,” said Hanrahan,
“If rain don’t come this week.”
A heavy silence seemed to steal
On all at this remark;
And each man squatted on his heel,
And chewed a piece of bark.
“We want an inch of rain, we do,”
O’Neil observed at last;
But Croke “maintained” we wanted two
To put the danger past.
“If we don’t get three inches, man,
Or four to break this drought,
We’ll all be rooned,” said Hanrahan,
“Before the year is out.”
In God’s good time down came the rain;
And all the afternoon
On iron roof and window-pane
It drummed a homely tune.
And through the night it pattered still,
And lightsome, gladsome elves
On dripping spout and window-sill
Kept talking to themselves.
It pelted, pelted all day long,
A-singing at its work,
Till every heart took up the song
Way out to Back-o’-Bourke.
And every creek a banker ran,
And dams filled overtop;
“We’ll all be rooned,” said Hanrahan,
“If this rain doesn’t stop.”
And stop it did, in God’s good time;
And spring came in to fold
A mantle o’er the hills sublime
Of green and pink and gold.
And days went by on dancing feet,
With harvest-hopes immense,
And laughing eyes beheld the wheat
Nid-nodding o’er the fence.
And, oh, the smiles on every face,
As happy lad and lass
Through grass knee-deep on Casey’s place
Went riding down to Mass.
While round the church in clothes genteel
Discoursed the men of mark,
And each man squatted on his heel,
And chewed his piece of bark.
“There’ll be bush-fires for sure, me man,
There will, without a doubt;
We’ll all be rooned,” said Hanrahan,
“Before the year is out.”
Oh Boll… Helen Coonan needs some power to regulate these rampant extrapolations! Very good, man…
CWFZ, Oates wasn’t a strong candidate, and like I said it’s pretty strong mortgage belt area – the interest rate scare bit hard. The suburbs around Campbelltown have been pretty good to Farmer, but at the State level it’s a lay down misere for Labor. I believe these areas will revert more to type than they have over the past few elections. Remember the seat was notionally Labor when Farmer won it. The issue will be how hard the Currans Hills, Narellan Vales, and so forth swing against Howard on rates.
As Ben Raue says it’s 50-50. I think Farmer just will scrape back in, but Labor will rue not preselecting a candidate with a better profile.
GG 290 –
My friend, that is the perfect antidote to – well – everything. Thank you.
The Father of Lies
An Aussie bloke died and went to heaven. As he stood in front of St. Peter at the Pearly Gates, he saw a huge wall of clocks behind the Celestial Guardian.
The man asked, “What are all those clocks?”
St. Peter answered, “Those are Lie-Clocks. Everyone on Earth has a Lie-Clock. Every time you lie the hands on your clock will move.”
“Oh,” said the man, “Whose clock is that?”
“That clock belongs to Phillip Adams. The hands have never moved, indicating that Phillip has never told a lie.”
“Incredible,” said the man. “And whose clock is that one?”
“That clock belongs to Harold Hark. The hands have moved once, indicating that in his long, honourable life he has only told one lie.”
“Where’s John Howard’s clock?” asked the man.
“John’s clock is in Jesus’s office. He’s using it as a ceiling fan.”
Here is a question. How much and to what extent do you think the personal factor represents in an electorate… 5% at tops. I think the fact is that 80% of voters are wedded to their team irrespective of the candidate. this will be obviously tested in Corio Victoria where the disinfected incumbent is seeking re-election as an independent. he will need to peg back the ALP vote by 10 percent and the liberal vote by 15% to secure then 25%+ required to be in the preference hunt. The personal factor is a bit like the donkey vote, very marginal vote counts in a marginal electorate but marginal electorates in the absence of a very string local candidate like Ted Mack can only be won by the majors. An independent needs to secure around 33% of the primary vote in a thee way tie for a single member seat. In a more solid electorate of 60-65% they can manage an upset with 25% support as long as they can peg the main party below 50% and pick up all other preferences.
I do not recall this happening much in a general election. A by-election yes but a main general election it is rare.
But then the odds of winning lotto are greater and people still play in hope of winning.
My my, seems freedom of information is only available as long as you don’t use it against the Govt;
For Bluebottle 281
Ms Petersen has in the past been a very naughty girl.
http://www.newtowntheatre.com.au/whats_on/cup_of_tea.php
http://libertus.net/censor/odocs/ppprng9808.html
Only if you dare!
Just stuff her name into Google.
Melbcity – depends on the candidate.
With Katter and Windsor – their personal vote is probably 80% of their entire vote.
People like Warren Enstch (forgive the spelling) are probably worth 10% for his personal factor.
But someone like Dana Vale, her vote is probably depressed because she’s such a dill.
SirEggo@287
He has changed his name. He sent me an e-mail, and my initial response was that with that name, he wouldn’t be allowed on the electoral roll. But the AEC told me they had enrolled him under that name (they sounded sheepish in having missed his registration and rejecting it), and as he is on the roll, he can stand as a candidate.
http://www.noneoftheabove.com.au/issues.htm
Stop believing the government’s hype.
The government doesn’t have a foot to stand on; they have had NO policy for dealing with inflation while the economy grows.
Everyone is starting to see them for what they are, economic dunces.
Howard & Costello: Sub-Prime Minister & Bracket Creep
Hang on, I thought you had to enrol under your real name?
None Of The Above should of course be put on top of the ballot paper out of principle
Antony
I am assuming that at this point the Libeals are (probably) gone. But just to confirm, if you assume the last Newspoll is correct, has either side come back from 16 points down during the campaign and won before? Either way, can you confirm what is the biggest deficit either side has madeup during a campaign before?
Who is on lateline for the mid week election summary on Lateline?
304
The govt dill Coonan and Albanese
Steveo Says:
I am sure in this election you will get the promise, well at least from Labor, the Liberals are in some sort of alternate universe, gun turrets on each street corner looks like their sort of fair, as always, I bet getting the roads and gun turrets will be another matter.
This interest rate thing has really compounded a crap week for the coalition.
When the word ‘troubled’ starts to turn up preceding mentions of your campaign on TV, you know you are well on the way to an irreversible change in the tone of media commentary – and not in a good way.
Are there any economics folk still around?
Today Alan Kohler on Crikey said there may be two interest rate rises, one on November 7th, and another in December. Tony Delroy just repeated this claim.
My question is this. If there really is a chance of two interest rate rises in successive months, why doesn’t the R.B.A. increase the rate by 0.50% on November 7th, rather than 0.25%?
If it turns out that was too much, surely you could just cut the rate by 0.25% in January or February.
Does this now come down to politics? If the rate gets increased in November and December – irrespective of who is in government – then that would appear to be the least political intervention. i.e. the interst rate increases happwned twice, during and after the campaign.
Or am I totally missing something here?
James Says:
October 24th, 2007 at 7:06 pm
Yes Swings are never uniform in a single member electorate system (One reason why multi-member electorates are better) The system is very much geared to property/residence entitlement as opposed to reflecting voters intentions and diversity. It is like trying to present the weather by averaging the temperature across Australia. It can not be Done.
The Swing is of value in calculating the Senate vote. What are the chances of control of the Senate being reversed? Buckley and none.
Even if John loses his grip on the lodge the liberal party will still control the Senate until July 2008 and most likely for the full first term of a Rudd Government.
Poss @ 298.
I suspect after Nov 24 you could replace Dana Vale with Belinda Neal if the good folks of Robertson are desperate enough to vote Labor to get her home.
BTW has anyone heard any goss on Hughes? I would be far from shocked to hear Vale get tossed out.
ShowsOn Says:
October 24th, 2007 at 10:45 pm
If you apply the brakes you are best to do so slowly rather then quickly. Unless there is a the likely hood is an immediate collision.
So is the problem that we know we are going too fast but we don’t know what is ahead?
Hey look: ‘new leadership’ for the Liberal party after Nov 24!
http://www.campbellnewman.com.au/
(ok…. its childish – but at least mine’s a real site)
As for Rodent nicknames anyone who was a kid growing up in the 80’s will remember Danger Mouse. Now that I have your attention do you rememebr his sidekick?…..Yup, that’s right: Penfold. El Rodent is the spitting image. A mate of mine even made a T-Shirt for my birthday once.. Think I’ve still got it. How much do ya reckon I’d get for it on E-bay?
Showson,
From the RBA stand point, “go early go often” works for inflation because its not only about curbing actual demand, but also inflation expectations, but in a way that doesnt scare the bejeesus out of people.
Give ‘em a nudge with 25 basis points and see what happens, then give ‘em another nudge if necesarry tends to work better than wacking them over the head with larger rises.
The RBA want to impact upon demand without jolting it – they would prefer as smooth a pullback as is possible to engineer because it keeps things ticking over and flowing in a relatively unharrassed way.
If you pull the big guns out and go with a 50 basis points rise and then soon after have to wind it back, it also reduces confidence in the RBA in terms of them knowing what they’re doing.And that’s not a good thing because sometimes the RBA can get away with not having to actually raise rates, but instead just come out and jawbone the market with the threat of raising rates in a speech or when the Governor goes before the Senate committee.The pen is mightier than the sword, sometimes the word is mightier than the trigger.
If confidence in the RBA was reduced, that jawboning effect would likewise reduce and we’d probably see more rises and cuts than we do at the moment.
And that’s not a good thing, the ideal is smoothness.
ShowsOn – I’m not expert on interest rates but I would suspect that the reserve bank are still worried about the global credit crunch. If it was only based on Australia’s economy they might go the half point. But they need to act now, and the balance is delicate. Australia’s interest rates are already among the highest in the western world – if the disjunction gets too high our dollar will just go up more and that could hurt. I can’t help thinking that there must be a bit of politics in it too. I think it would be a brave governor to recommend a full half point during an election. Of course its only money market commentators, who have their own biases, so who really knows?
I’ve got to hand it to Helen Coonan. Her ability to move her head and speak without snapping her neck while wearing 6 kilos of makeup is amazing.
Does this all mean Labor is going to win?
And here’s Penfold:
http://modculture.typepad.com/photos/uncategorized/penfold.jpg
Hhahahah just saw Costello on Lateline saying that Labor would create more inflation, and ultimatley a recession… His plan of attack: “Well if you think THIS is bad, just think of how bad it could be!”
He may not be the most inspiring of speakers, but I thought Albanese argued a very good case on Lateline.
LEIGH SAYLES IN A GOLD SHIRT!
I thought Albanese’s point that there was no Minister for Infrastructure was interesting.
Yes Albanese tends to argue a good case when Rudd isnt behind him eating his own ear wax….
Have you got your 6 year old replying for you now Glen?
Incidentally, who that freak who occasionally stands nodding behind the PM – looks like a cross between Vincent Price and Lurch, with massive jowels and screwed up teeth?
Yeergh. He freaks me out every time.
315
A 50 basis points rise would do a hell of a lot more than just undermine confidence in the RBA Poss.
His name is “Generic Nodding Dog”
whoever he is he doesnt eat his ear wax unlike some people…
Until 1984 candidates appeared on the ballot paper under their full name, since then they have been able use any version of their name they like. So Anthony John Abbott can run as Tony Abbott. It appears in fact that a candidate can run under any name at all, provided it is not a name calculated to deceive voters (I cannot run for Bennelong as John Howard) or likely to cause offense (I cannot run as Cecil F*cktheliberals or Lord Jesus Christ). The DRO can rule any candidate name as unacceptable. A candidate does not have to be an enrolled voter in the electorate where they are running (John Howard isn’t), and I don’t think they are required to be an enrolled voter at all, although they must be an Australian citizen.
When are we getting another poll?
What would it do?
Other than stop people taking out mortgages that they can’t afford
Glen, one too many me thinks.
Glen,
Dear oh dear. Gratuitous insults as a substitute for political debate.
The situation is so desperate, yet you Liberal intelligentsia are so preoccupied with the minutae of personal hygene that you ignore the fact that you are going to wake up dead on November 25.
The Libs are still strolling around the country as if they don’t understand that Labor have avoided wedges because they are not wearing underpants.
Seriously, this stiff upper lip stuff will see you Libs reduced to a rump. When are we gonna see some passion.
Albanese was actually quite calm and delivered his lines with practiced aplomb, I thought. Coonan looked like she’s got a plan alright, a retirement plan. Very uncomfortable and, yes, it’s amazing her face doesn’t constantly bounce off the table with the weight of the heavy duty spackfilla she’s using. Albanese could do with a new hairdresser, though. He seems to be seeing the same guy McMullan uses.
Really, how much longer can these clowns continue with the farce? I mean, military tech schools? 1916 is right, that’s the level of vision.
Are you saying his Ribena fermented in his stomach!?
Hhahahahahah Coonan has a plan for a plan!
Let it End,
That’s one way to put it.Blood on the currency floor comes to mind (among various other types of traders in forward markets everywhere)
Although in 99 they raised by 50, and in 94 I think they raised by 100 not once but twice!
The panic in the mortgage belt would be, er….. lively.
Coonan has no substance, how on earth does a clown like her get elected, she reminds me of a Rottweiler.
Rudd has no substance whatsoever….
What did Rudd do today??
He went to a school and said nothing…nothing!!!!!
Rudd is PR staged he wont do anything as Prime Minister unless the polls tell him what is popular…god help us all…especially considering after 1 term Gillard will want to be PM…
What did Howard do today?
Had a policy on defence technical colleges…some substance from John.
William do we really have to re-visit the ear wax theme?. It’s already been done to death.
Sean, I think Ratsak has answered your doubts. Nothing wrong with these after what many of us have been through in the past 9 years. LETP is also desperately hoping for a Labor win but not quite ready to believe it. He has some excuse, having the additional curse of supporting Fremantle.
But I think you can relax a little in your trepidations. there is absolutely no resemblance between this situation and 1998. Or 2001 or 2004 or 1969 for that matter. A lot of emphasis is place on the 2PP figures. Not only has Labor’s been 54-59 for a long sustained period (which never happened at any of the other recent elections), the primary has been solidly around 48.
Put bluntly, Labor is not going to lose with a primary vote around 48. In fact, I’ve always thought that they’d win with a primary around 45. Except in some three-cornered regionals, Labor will always pick up over 5 points of minor party preferences (Family First will not really change that). And my theory is also that most marginals, being middling in support to both majors, will fairly accurately reflect the state-wide trend: ie most marginals will probably see around 48 primary for Labor. On those sort of figures, Labor will win most marginal contests.
Porking the marginals as Textor-Howard are desperately trying will not be enough to save them for the Libs. Nor will popular local members (although on this account, I’d hope Bruce Bilson, a pretty decent type, might defy the trend). A lot of Howard’s 96ers who worked the marginals so well are now retired or retiring – so even that’s not working anyway.
There are a couple of exceptions (eg it is impossible to work out what’s happening in WA), but what marginal polling there has been has suggested Labor is well in front.
The other factor is of course Howard Fatigue. He has been the greatest wriggler of our time in avoiding responsibility for anything, but finally… finally, voters are seeing through him. And the sweetest irony is that it’s all of his own doing. He could have got out. He didn’t need Workchoices…
Workchoices was the turning point. Some posters here are probably right that it is not the only or even the primary reason for vote change. He burnt up all his credibility on that. People no longer believed him. So the Save the Children aboriginal campaign flopped, Haneef didn’t get off the ground, the Nuclear Solution for Global Warming failed, the Gunns Pulp Mill failed to ignite and provided a wedge for his own party. The Mersey Hospital farce lokked exactly like what it was. And Andrews looked a right dork trying to dog whistle on Sudanese migrants. Nobody’s listening.
Do you think it’s any coincidence that Lib campaigning material contains no pics of Howard and hardly a mention of him?
Possum’s take is even more astonishing. The very biggest swings against Howard are in the old Green Leaf suburbs where Wets and a lot of the old patrician Liberals still reside. Many of them hate with a passion Howard’s exploitation of racism, his abuses of the public service, his cultivating of the fundamentalists, and his obsequiousness to Bush. There’s a feeling that Rudd is a safe alternative, something that hasn’t been on offer in the last 11 years. Nobody really knows how many seats it may yield, but it could turn this election into a rout.
I’m sticking to the most probable outcome at present – about 90 seats to Labor. But it would not surprise me if it goes to somewhere like Gusface and Snakey have been predicting – 115-120.
Gaynor 190
There is still time to disendorse Belinda Neal.
My kneecaps are fine thanks, why do you ask?
.
.
Glen,
I made fun of Coonan so I think it’s fair enough for you to make fun of my point about Albanese but I also think you need to find a new joke. The ear wax thing is getting real old.
You have no substance about the issue of substance.
RE AM’s list of monikers for the Old Bloke at post 263:
Jurassic John.
The Weasel of OZ
But especially: Rat-faced Calvinist.
Loved it.
Paul something that funny never gets old you cry baby lefties dont like it when your leader looks like a unhygienic nerd…at least Albanese has good hygiene something that cannot be said for Rudd…
You continually make fun of mad monk, captain smirk, rodent so it is only fair for me to make fun of ear wax eater…if i cannot say ear wax eater then you cannot say rodent or captain smirk…
Where was Conroy tonight was he doing the numbers to make sure Rudd would survive a challenge from Swan or Gillard…
The truth is an advantage to Labor, that’s why we ration it.
http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/breakingnews/
GG you rationed it alright, which story did you mean?
Glen,
You won’t find any posts by me with the words Rodent, etc. I’ve said before that I think that it’s childish. But the ear wax thing is primary school stuff. I even heard Derryn Hinch cut off a caller on his radio show who tried to bring it up by saying that if you looked closely all Rudd really did was scratch his ear. If you want to keep acting like a little kid that’s your choice.
I heard that Coonan was the female mummy found with Tutankhamen and that she has been wondering the earth ever since.
Question for Don Wigan,
Are you the same Don Wiggan(as it appears in the credits) who was one of the drivers for Santo Cilauro’s 1996 Documentry on The Campaign ?
Garrett Blocked on $12,000 Freedom Of Information Request
http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,22644038-5005961,00.html
Glen: your beloved Prime Minister still thinks we’re living in 1900.
Unfortunately for Howard lovers, the rest of the Australian populace have switched off and couldn’t give a ____ what the Rodent says.
I’ll make another confident prediction: even if it’s a landslide win to Rudd, one seat Labor won’t pick up is Robertson. Belinda Neale is a disaster. Her husband ought to stop trying to get his wife back into parliament. I give Nicole Cornes more chance of winning Boothby.
Fair cop Guv.
http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,22644038-5005961,00.html
Paul he fut his finger in his ear and then put that same finger in his mouth…it speaks for itself…so long as Howard is referred as Rodent, Jurassic John, The Weasel of OZ, i will call Rudd ear wax eater….
How is calling Howard those things not childish too then Paul so then you’ve called your comrades all little kids you wont be popular….
Greeny,
What truth? – that WA people are weird and that’s why they are defying the swing?
http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,22642622-5005961,00.html
Nah, he meant this story, about how they do ‘things’ in the West:
http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,22642622-5005961,00.html
It’s not looking good for right-wing parties overseas atm.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/10/24/2069582.htm?section=justin
When the dust settles on Sunday 25th, Dork Choices will be the clincher, combined with yet another interest rate rise in early November. The Libs have nothing to say on Health and Education and won’t be believed even if they roll out ‘big gun’ policies in these areas. Fattening the Pig on market day, as Rodentus so eloquently put it!
It seems that it’s now ’social policy’ stupid, not the economy. And why not? Kevvie has done everything possible to neutralise this issue and sure looks like he is succeeding. Just a bit ‘presidential’, like a Roman Consul – not quite Caesar!
If Swan doesn’t bungle the debate against Costello, Labor is home, as Captain Smirk is about as appealing as necrophilia.
Whilst the Libs can try to concentrate on holding seats in the 2-5% range, the Unions via Your Rights at Work teams, have been targetting the 21 most marginal seats across the nation for at least the last 12 months. I’m sure they’ve kept Dork Choices percolating – the Libs ‘fairness test’ was just too little and too late, as it still left 300,000 workers languishing on ‘unfair’ AWA’s, by definition. And if they don’t like it, they just have to find another job? Ain’t that ‘fair’?
If these 300,000 are ‘normally distributed’ throughout the marginals, Labor will win, albeit narrowly, relying on two independents for absolute ‘majority’. 75 ALP, 73 Coalition, two Independents ( Katter and Windsor). Margin so narrow because swing won’t be uniform 4.8%.
NSW 4 seats ( Macquarie, Lindsay, Eden-Monaro, maybe Page or Wentworth or Bennelong)
Vic – 3 seats from around 5-6% swing,
3 most marginal in Qld,
3 SA seats, one of Bass or Braddon and 1 in WA or NT. ( Total 15).
Imagine Bob Katter holding balance of power in House of Reps? The Shooters could yet have their revenge on Rodentus for national gun law changes, via Katter making Rudd PM. Could be quite a volatile time in House of Reps if this happens. May have to appoint Katter or Windsor as Speaker, to ‘eliminate’ one possible vote on floor of the House. Wouldn’t want to vote oneself out of Speaker’s job, surely? Why wouldn’t Kevvie do what Iemma did in NSW?
Why so close? Just like 1961, the ‘credit squeeze’ election. Rate rise in November could push the margin out to 5 or more, but not much more, with Rodentus only just moving into ‘negative’ popularity ( i.e. Approve v. Disapprove). Also tight because young may not vote, due to complete disengagement with politics, thus dampening the effect of 70/30 junior vote split to Labor and due to early ‘roll closure’, catching out the nearly 18 year olds on threshhold of end-of-high school exams.
Should be just too many balls in the air this time for Rodentus, Wizard of Oz to juggle. His ‘lame duck’ status will soon filter through to the mug punters too. If they don’t like Costello there’s just no one else to vote for but Kevvie, unless they are gripped by Rodent’s ‘nostalgia’ trip once more, because it is all just too hard and people really want to go Back to the Future. And weren’t we happier with our FJ Holdens?
There are clearly a number of seats around 5-7% margins which are ‘in play’ to be lost by the Libs, especially in Victoria. And J. Howard will have to spend much more time in his own seat, lest Maxine steal it from him.
If Malcolm gets a bit complacent or arrogant in Wentworth, now Newhouse’s ex is standing, that could be a surprise win for Labor.
The HIgh and Mighty Malcolm will be expected to weigh in not just with money, but with time outside his own seat, so he’ll be torn between personal survival and the good of the party. What will he choose? He might well say ‘for the good of the Party, I must survive’!
The Govt clearly didn’t believe the ACTU ads would have such an impact. Neither did Rodentus believe Labor would change leaders, but they did.
Prediction: Labor by two, with FF prefs in some places and Greens in others. I think this prediction accords with the seat-by-seat betting – the bookies don’t usually get ‘claimed’ – and the Party ‘insiders’ can’t be stopped from having a ‘flutter’. Isn’t democracy wonderful?
Frank…you seem to forget that the Left wing parties got less than 15% of the vote how good does that look for the Left???
We had a right wing government replaced by a centre-right government…how is that bad????
The Liberal Party is more like the Civic Platform who are a pro-business centre-right party so id have to say your post shows why Howard has a chance of winning…
Possum @ 356, well there you go! I’m glad the police are stamping that sort of thing out … but it does provide some insight into WA voting intentions
You should catch a flight there on November 25th.
The only narrowing I can see for the Liberal/National team is the number of days left to the Election poll.
Glen, you’ve reached desperation stakes when the best your lot can do is defame Kevin Rudd as an “ear wax eater”, in comparison to a Prime Minister who doesn’t know what century we’re in currently.
Actually moderate right wingers are still looking OK, e.g. Germany and France. But it’s the extremists like those in Poland who are slowly being swept from the earth.
That barmaid is the Coalition’s secret weapon in the West. Next visit, she’s gonna jump Kevvie and give him the the big cleavage!
Let It End Says:
October 24th, 2007 at 10:25 pm
My my, seems freedom of information is only available as long as you don’t use it against the Govt;
For goodness sakes we gotta get this mob well and truly out of office.
.
.
Glen,
Tell me do you think Howard has ever picked his nose or wiped his own bottom? Or do his servants do it for him?
I wonder what she can do with a pencil in the polling booth.
HH i am not defaming Kevin Rudd because he does eat his own ear wax and the youtube video proves this so i hardly think it is a case of defamation…calling Howard a rodent or Jurassic John, The Weasel of OZ is defamatory because Howard is not a weasel or a rodent…
ShowsOn im more likely to get interested in international politics if my side of politics here is wiped out i cant see myself getting excited about us holding the mayoral position of Brisbane….shudders…
359 Bazthespaz, Reminded me of this corker . It won the comedy section of St Kilda short film Festival a couple of years ago, enjoy.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jj00MfIvbFE
What’s so bad about ear wax Glen? Never partaken myself… saving up some for my next cotten bud… if you could give me a clue as to what you’re so disgusted about – I’d appreciate it!
… and don’t disappear on me Glen! Answer ME!! lest we think you’re a coward! What’s wrong with ear wax??
Perhaps you should ask Rudd he knows what it tastes like…Rudd will break out the 1998 vintage if he wins the election he’ll share it round the table…
Still no election ads on air at the moment i guess they are waiting for he last 2 weeks…
Who’s your pick for the Republican primary?
do you know what it tastes like? (you’re available, Mr. Rudd isn’t…)
Rudy Giuliani…a moderate republican is my pick…
Glen,
Your continual tired sneering at Rudd on Waxgate shows that you are both un-Australian and in dire need of Howard’s history lessons.
In World War I, Australian troops in the second battle of Ypres lived off earwax for three weeks: firstly their own, and then their comrades’. You probably don’t know this, but there were even rumours that they had consumed German earwax – this was of course denied by Monash, but there is some evidence in the Australian Archives that wax was taken from wounded Germans (although never dead Germans, as the Central Powers claimed).
You’ve heard of Phar Lap? That’s no great claim to scholarship – but have you ever heard of Ear Wax, the other plucky chestnut gelding, who while never winning the Melbourne Cup, came second in eight consecutive years throughout the 1920s until he was eaten during the Great Depression.
Historians (time to step in ESJ) believe that it was Ear Wax (the horse), and his renowned fight against adversity, who provided inspiration for “Mr Waxy”, the Curtin Government’s Ministry of Information’s cartoon character who exhorted Australians to live within their means during the Second World War, by growing their own vegies, saving bits of string, and yes, eating their own ear wax.
“Lend Me Your Ears” (foreword, Eddie Ward) was a best-selling cookbook of that time – even years later, my nan from Kempsey would never send us off without first preparing us “Conny Onnys”, a nutritious sandwich of condensed milk, ear wax, and whatever else was found around the house. You might call this socialist austerity – I call it the Aussie Battling.
Of course, with the lifting of rationing under Menzies, ear wax was derided by the conservative side of politics – although you’ll find that nose picking was still quite acceptable. Some expected a comeback under Billy McMahon, but his government was too short-lived for any momentum.
Had Howard and Co not made it so tough for Australian Working Families, perhaps some of us wouldn’t be obliged to go mining our own potatoes, or fiddling with gilberts. Trust me, though, under a Rudd Labor Government, there will be ear-wax for all who want it – and anti-vilification legislation introduced to stop the likes of you smearing fine patriots.
Earwax is good, soon as I heard Costello say today that “underlying inflation is expected as demand pressures ease” I shoved in as much as I could to save my sanity.
[Garrett Blocked on $12,000 Freedom Of Information Request}
Odd that the Barrier Reef Authority won't cough-up copies of scientific research that our taxes have funded. Why? What have they got to hide?
And how about 12 K for provision of data on the reef ecology? I note the following costing breakdown: "....costs included charges for 107.6 hours of search and retrieval time, 539 hours of decision-making time and photocopying of more than 3250 pages at 10 cents per page..."
539 Hours of decsion making time?
Holy Somnolent Bureaucrats Batman, that's more than 14 week's work for Sir Humphrey. Fourteen weeks to vet and decide whether to release 3250 pages at 45 pages per-day.
Did they have to be translated from Chinese first or something? What kind of numb-nuts tanks at reading 45 pages per-day?
So, we’ve got 12 days til the announcement (or the lack of one) from the RBA which means that’s the hot topic. Except for cup day of course. Which is 12 days the Libs won’t be ‘cutting through’ much. Then after that there’ll be a bit over a fortnight left for them to grovel to the folks (if the rates go up) or try to explain why they won’t go up in December. In other words, no momentum. Can’t quite see how the military tech schools thing (or its ilk) or Helen C’s various plans, or the smirk’s fabulous communication skills, or anything else, really, is going to make that particular issue go away. How do you convince the people that Howard’s not just a very fortunate megalomaniac who’s forgotten which century it is? If you can’t do that, how can the Libs win? They can’t.
i dont consider Rudd to be a fine patriot VoterBoy of Over the Water…
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22458164-5013871,00.html
I must say Shanahan’s commentary is impeccably fair and accurate. He doesn’t look too happy about it but he’s not trying to spin it for Howard. I suspect that even the Völkischer Beobachter has realised that the jig is up.
ruawake
1916. In Brissy. Good. Tell more.
My point is – that anyone expressing such disgust over Mr. Rudd (the gourmand) has tasted ear wax – either their own or someone else’s… it is a subjective experience… there can’t be a sympathetic reaction to such a thing… so Glen, which is it – have _you_ tasted either your own earwax or someone elses? Answer! No running away!
Glen,
Ear wax is the secret ingredient to the mesmersing power and efficacy of ALP hubricating oil.
It is an anabolic feng shui substitute.
Kevin Rudd is going to be the next PM because he is impervious to glib Glen’s gloating.
The day the Völkischer Beobachter gives up on the Tories will be a sad day indeed leaving only the Hun to put up with the Age…
lets hear the truth glen, you are not really a liberal, but rather a crypto fascist clown, fixated upon John Howard as some reincarnated Fuhrer.
Soon it will be time to poison Blondi
Looks like the media spin doctors are about to line up and eat each other. This could break out into inter-media warfare.
Print warriors turning on themselves
{AN entertaining, if undignified, contest is under way behind the campaign as commentators turn on each other when not bashing politicians.
The Herald Sun’s Andrew Bolt lashed out at fellow Coalition barracker Gerard Henderson on the ABC’s Lateline on Monday. “Gerard, we know your game, you’ll sit on the fence, not say anything,” said Bolt, as he lampooned Henderson’s refusal to predict the election result.
Bolt, who predicts a Labor win by 10 seats, last month declared it was time for Howard to make way for Peter Costello.
Janet Albrechtsen, The Australian’s columnist also known for her Coalition sympathies, took a similar stand. The Age’s Michelle Grattan said Howard should go.
That left Henderson of The Sydney Morning Herald standing alongside The Daily Telegraph’s Piers Akerman as solidly behind Howard. }
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22638826-5013871,00.html
I thought only Paul Keating defames Howard as Hitler Nath i didnt think you did such shameful things…
Looks like the only one left in the boat is Piers.
Okay, Glen – you can’t answer… No worries! Look if you could just stand up and get Edward (from the next cubicle) for me – that would be excellent – he’ll be able to give me an answer as to how a person can feel such existential disgust about earwax without ever having experienced its taste! C’mon Glen! Get Edward – there’s a good boy!
389
Adam Says:
October 24th, 2007 at 11:57 pm
Soon it will be time to poison Blondi
Or the Member for Warringah, to use his correct title.
Voter Boy,
A pearler of a post!
glen, you were the one who related Howard to Hitler. remember Wenck.
Rudy Giuliani, a ‘moderate Republican’????? WTF??
Rudy has one plan, and one plan only: to get himself into a flight suit and over Iran as soon as he can.
That’s it! This clown is determined to bankrupt the USA with more of the same insanity that the ever so popular current incumbent has inflicted upon the world.
“moderate”??? Oh, give me a break!
After the other night, Gerard is too pathetic to count …
Actually Nath i was not the first to talk about General Wenck i merely responded to the left wing charge for fun…so i did not start such actions they were begun by the Left…
Edward is out arranging a forged Argentine passport for the Senator.
Um, why doesn’t that article identify Shanahan as a Government supporter!?
Evan,
it really is a joke. Not sure how it took them 539 hours to decide it was ‘political’ and couldn’t be released.
Perhaps half of those 539 hours were in trying to work out how many hours it took to make the decision.
Surely they could have worked out it was going be political in 0.539 hours.
Imagine how big the surplus could really be if this sort of crap wasn’t going on on a daily basis.
The GG should sack Rudd if he tries to bring forward Royal Commissions for political opportunism against the legacy of Howard if Krudd wins…
fair enough glen, perhaps I missed earlier references.
Not much good an Argentine passport these days… but the Liberals have always been about a century behind! Glen, just SMS Edward and tell him ‘Argntna nw dmocrcy – Go Burma MBaC! Quik!’
Transcript of Interview Rudd did with Vile Sandilands and Skanky Ho
http://www.jocksjournal.com/kevinrudd.htm
Glen, Rudd doesn’t work for ‘The Australian’.
What about Paraguay or Bolivia…
Possum Comitatus could you explain to a poor ignorant engineer why the reserve bank increases interest rates when inflation gets out of hand.
1) The cost of money increase, this adds to inflation.
2) Our exchange rate goes up, this adds to inflation.
To my mind they are trying to control demand, and the cost of money and the effect it has on demand is what us poor engineers refer to as a secondary effect. Secondary effects are something engineers try and ignore with a nice linear model.
The forthcoming Royal Commission on the AWB affair should be a corker. It will probably force Downer, Vaile and Truss out of politics if they haven’t gone already.
I’m just waiting for a $72 trillion Howard/Costello black hole …
Surely, Howard knew that there was a strong likelihood of interest rates going up in early November. Speculation has been going on for a long time now. So, delaying the election until later in November was always going to be risky, but what could have possibly outweighed this risk in Howard’s mind when he chose to delay the election?
The Governor General should sack Rudd if he does this…he’d only be doing it for political gain…
I think we should convert all tertiary education institutions into defence technical colleges. That will make Australia really strong. You can even have a gun.
Uncle John wants you, and you, and you.
Democratically elected governments can form as many royal comissions as they like.
Why have you suddenly developed issues with democracy?
but not you Tim or you Richard… fruit of my loin…
Not a fan of the truth eh Glen? Surely if Howard has done nothing wrong, then he has nothing to fear….
I think we should have a royal commission every time a government changes. good for the system. Look what happened during the roman republic, every time a poltician left office they were prosecuted for any corruption that happened under their watch.
Heaven forfend that we should have a Prime Minister who does things for POLITICAL GAIN! What a scandal that would be! *Faints with horror at the thought*
I thought Glen was always a supporter of regime change, it is the Tory way isn’t it? That’s what he said about Iraq.
Midnight – only 30 days more of this tosh to put up with. When are we getting another poll?
Night all! (Still haven’t answered me – Glen… Need to have a _big_ sleep on it eh?)
William, just out of interest, what word in my previous post needed moderation?
Yeah, can we “yada yada” through a week or two, Seinfeld-style?
Enjoyed the chaser encoreing Howard’s senior moment at the debate – otherwise a tidge bored at this point.
Keep the polls rollin!
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,22641036-2,00.html
LOL, that may have worked for the dill if he hadn’t forgotten directing everyone to use underlying rate of inflation and not the headline rate in all of his last 4 qrt press conferences on CPI.
As for his statement; “underlying inflation is expected as demand pressures ease”, I am totally speechless.
At least the media seem to have finally woken up to him now. Honestly, how anyone can attribute any credibility to Costello is beyond me.
It is really like when a tidal wave hits.
One minute you are swimming gaily in the sea, water up over your head.
Next the sea rushes out leaving you naked and arguing with a whole bay full of floundering fish.
Then the Tsunami flows in and you are completely and utterly drowned.
Vale John Howard.
The MSM have finally smelt the blood in the water. Watch them start to cricle. It will be most unattractive. But endless fun.
I suspect you’re right, 426, 427. All H*b*i* aside (or *u*r*s for those who punctuated differently), I think this will be seen as the week when the ground opened up beneath Howard. (I can say this without invoking the wrath of the gods, btw – I’m not in the Labor Party). Watch the collapse accelerate from hereon in.
When Costello was asked today if the coalition could still win all he could manage was there is still 4 weeks to go and something could happen.
Not much encouragement for the faithful there.
Perhaps i could recommend the Labor supporters watch the movie Downfall on election night regardless of who wins…
I would Glen but the other people at my election party wouldn’t be too happy. We’ll be too busy celebrating
I didnt know you were going to have a Dons Party Tim
The only movie Labor supporters will be watching on election night will be The Concession, featuring Jack Howard in his last starring role.
Can Howard have the election bought forward to save us all the boredom?
Watch Graham Richardson on election night 1993, at the 5 minute 25 second mark of this video:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n_CHXDBq9Ps
He can’t believe that Labor has won.
Sadly no, the writs have been issued.
I think Glen’s various royal commissions into government corruption would be great, they would remind governments that even if they think they have absolute unfettered power the tiny little thing called the law will catch up with them….
1998 – ALP primary vote 40.1%. One Nation makes the election irrelevant, the Libs/Nats got 39.7%.
What the poor old Libs don’t realise is that a lot of people never liked Howard, but they were not quite in the majority. Now a lot of people who voted for him in marginals are mightly ticked off, and some of the people who didn’t like his policies on social issues but swallowed their economic medicine don’t think Rudd’s a danger.
If both of those hold, Nostro and friends will look a bit like the French aristocracy shortly before the storming of the Bastille.
Despite that, only a major miracle will get Zochling up in Warringah!
Rudd’s concession speech…
When it comes to losing the election the buck stops with me.
Can i just say that we fought hard for working families but the bottom line is this we lost…but you know something we tried to bring back fairness…
My challenge to the Prime Minister is this…when it comes to running the country we need new leadership and we need fresh ideas and i hope the Prime Minister can achieve this though i doubt this…
As someone who grew up in the country i know that in due season we need an education revolution and we will strive for this goal even in opposition…
Did we want to win the election? Yes….Why? Because we wanted to keep fairness from being thrown out the back door…we needed fresh ideas on broad band and on the question on why we needed to do this is so that our children can have the best education in the world…
I say id come down like a tonne of bricks on any hubris and triumphalism but it wasnt enough and i always said it would go down to the wire but it appears as if we’ve gone a bridge too far and the fork in the road does not involve a new Labor government so i will still be an unemployed diplomat and remain an economic conservative…so long as i am leader of the ALP…
Can i just say how sorry i am to the faithful that we didnt pull it off the buck stops with me and we didnt counter the negative scare campaign of the Howard Government adequately and so i will set up a committee to analyse our defeat immediately…
Glen,
Shouldn’t you be in bed? You have kindergarten in the morning.
I hope Labor proposes an economic summit for the first 100 days of government. Invite business, unions, economists etc to discuss ways to curb inflation.
Sure we have a much more open economy than when Hawke did this in 1983, but the current government has done bugger all, and Rudd needs to show how seriously he will take the problem.
your mother!
http://www.theage.com.au/news/federalelection2007news/coalition-rate-rise-gloom/2007/10/24/1192941153243.html?page=2
LOL, that’s it, the ole fella has totally lost it now.
He’s been banging on “there is no crisis” for the last 6 months and now trudging along the road to Damascus he’s fallen down a pot hole and found a policy in it. Good Lord, what next!
Glen @ # 339 said:
“Rudd has no substance whatsoever….
What did Rudd do today??
He went to a school and said nothing…nothing!!!!!
Rudd is PR staged he wont do anything as Prime Minister unless the polls tell him what is popular…god help us all…especially considering after 1 term Gillard will want to be PM…
What did Howard do today?
Had a policy on defence technical colleges…some substance from John.â€
The difference though is that Rudd was much more effective than Howard. Announcing a lot of policies is only effective if people are listing, But Howard has the problem that no one is listing and as soon as he opens his mouth they turn off. This was so clearly demonstrated during the debate and so clearly shown by the worm.
Glen, I am afraid that Howard is only firing blanks.
The worm is a bull butter Who the uncommitted audience were Labor staffers any noob could see that the worm started at the highest level before Rudd started talking and whenever Howard said anything the worm went down…Ray Martin should be ashamed of himself and 9 show sack him for political bias…
LOL, even Shanahan has now embarked on a journey of that well known Syrian highway it seems, Is there anyone other than Piers left
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22644486-17301,00.html
The government’s claims of economic superiority has always been a sham. They just took all the brain dead easy decisions, instead of doing the real hard things to keep the economy growning.
I’m glad their reputation is going to fall in a heap by election day.
Not only that ShowsOn, but as the MSM stirs over inflation it will totally undermine the single strategy of Howard’s entire campaign, pork, and leave him stripped naked. A very deserving fate I may add.
Glen @ # 445 said:
“The worm is a bull butter Who the uncommitted audience were Labor staffers any noob could see that the worm started at the highest level before Rudd started talking and whenever Howard said anything the worm went down…Ray Martin should be ashamed of himself and 9 show sack him for political bias…â€
You may be correct Glen but I doubt it. Maybe one reason that they can’t get a panel of undecided voters is that they have all decided to vote Labor.
However, Glen you are ignoring the elephant in the corner. The worm demonstrated that not only are people not listing to Howard they don’t want to listen to him. They are ignoring him at every opportunity and they are extremely happy to ignore him as well.
This is what happens when you are tardy with the truth and use “weasel words†at every opportunity
To Nostradamus and your prediction on Bennelong. I wonder what voters in this seat will be thinking in 4 weeks time if the polls maintain their current trend.
Me, I would not want to vote in again so soon after the Federal poll. It may just convince me that a vote for Maxine, who let’s face it, a majority of voters in the country would be happy to have as their member, in the first place.
When making predictions the original Nostradamus has to be interpreted very broadly to fit the true facts, I think you have chosen the moniker well.
I predict Howard will not hold his seat. Remember historically Colins have always been right.
I get the distinct impression that somebody here has been working overtime on his fertility clinic donations tonight.
Good night Glen. May all of your dreams be as dry as your politics.
Sorry Glen, Kerr died years ago mate.
I have been reading the various readers’ blogs on this topic on the websites of the various Australian newspapers. There is the usual mix of pro-Howard and pro-Rudd comments (30/70 ish), and I noticed a singularly interesting little fact: I found someone who had commented across several papers.
I found Macca of Ipswich on the following blogs:
The Australian
The Brisbane Courier-Mail
The Adelaide Advertiser.
Ironically, in the last, he was accusing Young Labor of spamming the boards with pro-Rudd comments. Given that his sole contribution has been to praise Howard to the skies, decry any notion of any sort of LP failure in Government and make up fanciful stories about the ALP, I find his “comments” to be hypocritical in the extreme.
Re 392,
“CL de Footscray Says:
October 24th, 2007 at 11:58 pm
Looks like the only one left in the boat is Piers.”
You could be right
… here is yet one more who sounds as if he has jumped ship 
http://blogs.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/malcolmfarr/index.php/dailytelegraph/comments/howards_dilemma_in_own_interest/
Charles @409:
“Possum Comitatus could you explain to a poor ignorant engineer why the reserve bank increases interest rates when inflation gets out of hand.”
I’ll bite.
Say you have a fixed (ie you can’t earn more) budget of $100. $30 for your food, $30 for your fuel, $30 for your mortgage, and $10 for luxuries.
Your mortgage goes up to $40. What do you do? Assuming, for the nonce, that you can’t economise on fuel or food, obviously you’ll cut your spending on luxuries. This is the idea, in an ultra-simplistic way, of raising interest rates to control inflation.
Inflation, as you no doubt realise, is the growth in prices over time, and is generally caused by consumers competing for scarce resources, bidding the prices up in the process. A good example at the moment is housing! Some of it is unavoidable in the domestic sense (eg inflation due to movements in the price of oil). However, demand for consumables, electronic goods etc are sensitive to people’s disposable incomes – hence, if you take away people’s disposable incomes, they can’t compete for goods and therefore the tendency to ‘bid up’ prices for these goods is ameliorated. Also, peoples’ tendency to use credit to finance purchases (eg plasma tv on the VISA card) is lessened.
It’s obviously more complex than this, but this is the basic linkage between interest rates and inflation.
And yes – they are trying to dampen consumption demand across the economy.
Thank you Don @ #341 and Baz @ #359.
My concern is still WA. It may be Labor’s achilles heel.
Sean @ 457
….
I don’t think too much reliance should be placed on the Westpoll results. There is no anecdotal sense in WA of a swing in favour of the government and the 2004 result was a real high-water mark for them here. I think these seats are difficult to poll: they are nearly always finely balanced and small changes in assumptions about sample weighting can easily give you varying “results”. The Liberals are not up to running a strong campaign on the ground and the factors that are Rudd-positive nationally will be positive in WA. My prediction is a swing to Labor – not big, maybe, but big enough to make it possible for Labor to pick up seats and defend their existing ones.
On the RBA and interest rates, there is a further factor that will be in the mind of the economists at the RBA – the need to depress future inflationary expectations. They will be very mindful of the need to let players in the economy know that a generalsied rise in prices will not be allowed to take hold. Governments, businesses, unions, households will all be given the message that inflation will be dealt with before it takes hold – loose fiscal policies, price and wage hikes, credit-driven spending will have early consequences in terms of higher rates.
Porky Piers is not able to take the road to Damascus and run the risk of a conversion, he is roadkill on the highway to hell.