With today’s consumer price index figures said by analysts to make a Melbourne Cup interest rates hike extremely likely, Crikey offers another round of Roy Morgan data mining, this time ranking electorates in order of respondents’ various economic concerns. Morgan has also aggregated its September polling to provide state and country/city breakdowns. Also in the mail today is the latest Reuters poll trend, a weighted aggregate of Newspoll, ACNielsen and Roy Morgan. It shows essentially no change from the October 10 result, with Labor on 56.6 per cent of two party preferred (up 0.1 per cent) and 48.6 per cent of the primary vote (down 0.1 per cent), and the Coalition primary vote steady on 39.1 per cent.
460 Comments
Pages: « 1 [2] 3 4 5 … 10 » Show All
The Coalition realistically only has a chance to win 2 seats and they are in WA…Swan and Cowan.
I cant really predict the result because i dont know ask me 1 week out from the election but it is likely Labor will win the popular vote but not the seats like in 1998…that is a rough prediction but what do i know?
I wouldnt be worried about internal polling…i still believe the Howard Factor will be enough to hold the seat…if Howard loses his seat the election will be lost plain and simple the Coalition is not going to win and Howard lose…
Interesting article:
http://www.smh.com.au/news/opinion/buffer-boy-still-a-good-chance/2007/10/21/1192940899276.html?page=2
So Glen, you’re just ignoring all polling and assuming that the Coalition will pull it off?
It’s a very foolish move to make and I’d assume your party won’t be doing the same thing. I actually think the Costello leadership move may have been a preemptive move on the Coalition’s part just in case Howard loses Bennelong and they win government.
That way they can say they campaigned on Costello taking over the leadership.
The Morgan results are just trash unfortunately. They will only be believable if they’re repeated on election day.
The Westpoll has the Coalition winning in Cowan, Stirling and Hasluck. So, is it conceivable that the Coalition could pick up seats?
Im not discounting the polls if they dont change we’ll probably lose but i still think they will…
Sean, yes it is conceivable that the Coalition will pick up seats in WA. However, note recent Westpolls have the ALP in front on a state level, demonstrating a signficant swing from ‘04.
This means that either their seat-by-seat polling is out, their statewide polling is out, or we’re seeing swings in odd areas (note the recent Morgan polling showing Labor in front in Curtin – unbelievable).
Swan has not received any attention by Westpoll on a seat level, which is odd given it’s very slim margin. I have also not heard anything from the Liberal Party suggesting they think they have a chance so I think the ALP will retain Swan.
I have been on the record for a long time saying the ALP will lose Cowan. I lived in Cowan for 22 years of my life and have seen the changing demographics in the seat at close hand.
All in all that would be a loss of 1 seat, and not out of the question for the ALP to pick up an additional seat to counter that.
Glen, two points
1. Lithium, get some
2. One of the guys you barrack for was once accused (by his own mob if memory serves) of agreeing with the last person he talked too.
You should’ve waited abit before you lept on Nostrils themes. (We all know how you love the latest Lib “Themes”…
First story on 7 news was some dodgily put together snipe at Nicole Cornes and how she is supposedly been snubbed by Rudd. These days she doesn’t really have to do anything and they will find some sort of negative garbage to put on her. I think you can cross Boothby of the gains list, even though Southcott is just as much of a dud.
Glen
The way the polls are measuring intentions is nothing like 1998 or 2004 so no comparisons can be made. For Labor to win the vote but lose on seats, their 2pp figure would have to drop to 50.5% in the election. That’s a drop from the current intention (with about 90% of voters locked in to their choice) of say 57% down to 50.5% in the next four weeks with an interest rate rise in two weeks time. Sorry Glen, it’s all over. The hearse awaits in the driveway. Buy a few beers for the wake.
When is the next Galaxy poll coming out?
Oh I don’t think that the bookies are beleiving this
… I checked her odds this afternoon and despite the coalition ballooning out to $3 on Sportsbet, JH is at $1.37 and she is at $2.70. Me thinks that it might be time to put some money on Maxine 
:)
Glen, your post
Im not discounting the polls if they dont change we’ll probably lose but i still think they will…
is your most rational to date with the admission that if the polls dont change you lose. PLease explain on WHAT BASIS you think the polls will change when they have been steady all year and the last Newspoll showed 90% votes definately or most likely voting the way they indicate
Glen
Surely you realise that Pork has come to an end today. Rudd has already said he will spend less thean Howard.
So what has he left? Economy – trashed. National security – Hicks and Haneef lies.
Howard has given himself a dozen perfect wedgies. His election strategy is in tatters. His last hope was a win at the casino playing blackjack but he drew a ten (which kept him in the game) a three (which made him nervous and cranky) and finally today a 9. Bye Bye.
The election is all about how many seats can we have in opposition.
Andrew, the polls don’t need to change much from Galaxy’s 53/47 for the Coalition to be truly competitive.
Tristan Jones, I’d imagine Friday, but results will be leaked on Thursday night if they’re good for the Coalition.
You have no idea what you are talking about.
There is not such thing as “must win seats”.
To form government you need 76 out of 150, it doesn’t matter which 76 you win.
I repeat my earlier comment, you are confusing causation and probability.
Did anyone see Howard promise to extend funding until 1916 for the military schools?
All students will have to do a complusory subject on “Hun Studies”.
Julie, Maxine is at good odds (overs). I’m on.
Did I hear right? I can’t believe it. Howard said he is not in favour of pre-emptive strikes! AAAHAHAHA
As Glen well knows, mortgage rates were subject to government control when the rat was Treasurer. They were capped at 11%. that was before we had a deregulated banking sector, which meant that there wasn’t all that much money around. On the other hand, commercial rates weren’t, so the small busines rates went to 22%. Howard is about as good an economic manager as my dog. The dog’s much cuter, by the way. And that lunatic Costello – Black is White. Who’s running the economy now, Smirkster?
Sadly the Morgan State poll breakdown is of little use It provides a percentage split between City and Country. You can not add or average out percentages and Morgan did not publish the no of respondents that make up the each division. Not knowing the boundaries he has used also makes it difficult. Again it would be good if the pollsters could provide state/Party support statistics in their published results consolidated percentages per state or provide the numbers not just the percentage.
I often am left with the feeling that the pollsters do not like providing detailed breakdown of their data. A bit like the electoral commission who try to also avoid publishing relevant details.
Having read the data feed manual and guidelines I notice it is missing information relevant to the effective scrutiny. Missing is the the postal and pre-polling vote statistics on the number of ballot papers issued and returned prior to polling day (This statistic should be provided on a daily basis in the lead up to election day), absentee vote statistics recorded in the polling place return for each polling place/electorate. This information would allow for better monitoring and scrutiny of the ballot as the total number of votes issued can be ascertained and monitored.
Also missing is the below-the-line preference data files for the senate.
It looks like the AEC has focused on the commercial interests of media and forgot about the probity and scrutiny of the ballot.
All Peter Costello wants for Xmas is an old fashioned wind up watch– he already has a quartz model but it is silent and like him doesn’t have a ticker.
I thought you were banned because of this rubbish?
Sad to hear that, Kev. This is the impression I get over here in Werriwa also. That she’ll struggle to win. It’s a shame because Labor seem to have put up a lot of female candidates and it would be great to see them all in parliament next year.
I have a friend in Perth who emailed me today and said Howard can’t catch any luck in Perth at all. Apparently the West Australian had a story about Howard on the front page but no picture. The picture was of Ben Cousins, *again* along with more stories therein. Frank C., can you verify this?
Yeah, Rudd snubbed her by bludging in Melbourne. Everyone knows only people in Adelaide get to vote at elections.
“It may be like ‘98. The ALP will win the popular vote but not the seats”
Can someone remind what the ALP primary vote was in ‘98.
I think the ALP win in the popular vote is overstated.
My view is that no-one expected the ALP to win so they got a few cheap protest votes over the GST. One nation ate into the Coalition’s vote in mostly safe seat (on both sides) and a lot of the preference leaked over the ALP due to difficulty on one nation voters to count beyond three.
In other words the “popular win” had a fair bit of air in it.
Although i am a Labor supporter… What i would like to know is how Labor intends to deal with interest rates after the election? Because next year they will continue increase… and Labor can’t blame the States for that one… No excuses with Labor governments everywhere….For once a chance for real reform?
“Did anyone see Howard promise to extend funding until 1916 for the military schools?”
Yes, I did on Ch9 with Laurie.
The money can be used to fight the Battle of the Somme.
Casualties will be similar to the Liberal Party’s.
71
Yeah, how true, We need to get as many women elected as possible.
But if it walks like a duck … etc etc
Rod Sawford, retiring Labor MHR for Port Adelaide, apparently said today that his grandfather’s formula for predicting election results gave Labor an additional 13 seats – two or three short.
Any more statements from the Belinda Neals of this world and he could be right.
Melbcity, Morgan is very dodgy. I often wonder just how many people work for that organisation, and how many of them have any training or education in statistical analysis or data gathering.
Don’t they realise that putting out a shoddy product (or at least the appearance of one) on a frequent basis is worse than an infrequently published, but superior one?
Still, I don’t deny that it’s good entertainment, and maybe they’ll be proven right on election day. I for one will be backtracking through these polls to see how accurate they’ve been.
Howard has only himself to blame if he gets caught up in an interest rate rise. He could easily have called the election three weeks earlier but decided instead to play funny buggers..
MelbCity is not banned and never has been. He has however been asked to exercise moderation with his ballot data crusade, which by and large he has done.
Did Laurie draw attention to the 1916 mistake ? Has it yet assumed the status of a “gaffe” in the MSM?
I have never studied economics at tertiary level, but it’s not hard to follow what the economists at banks like HSBC and Macquarie are saying today.
And Rudd has been pretty devastating making the point that the serious inflationary pressures we are facing are due to the ineptness of the government and their failure to build capacity.
Costello is huffing and puffing of course … all he’s good for.
I am finally starting to think a big win for Labor is possible. Another 4 and a half weeks of myth-busting and the choices will be crystal clear, surely.
Liberal Boys are tough and do not panic
Labor Boys are weaklings and cowards
Tabitha, are you a member of the exclusive brethren?
Labor needs a uniform swing of 4.13% to have 75 Seats in the house (with an implied 73 for the Coalition and 2 for independents)
Swings are never uniform – but the idea is the Mackerra’s pendulum does NOT PREDICT WHICH SEATS WILL FALL, only the total number.
The Pendulum theory acknowledges that swings are non uniform. The strong presumption being they will balance each other out. That is a 4.1% swing to Labor will MOST LIKELY result in 75 Seats, although there will be suprises – There will be some unexpected gains by Labor, but also some unexpected retains by the Coalition.
There is NO reason to think this is not the case unless you have very strong evidence that the swing to Labor is larger in Labor held seats or very safe Liberal seats. This was the case in 1998, with the govt doing a lot better in the marginals, however this artifact is already built into the current margins as the govt has been in for a long time, and should not be a factor.
1916 hit ABC news in Brissy
Thanks for that Tabitha….anyway… like I said before
Lithium, (or is this what happens as it starts to take effect)?
So interest rates increase but what of the people who don’t have mortgages? And a recession Mr Costello and Mr Howard… I am afraid whoever is in government and the metooism on economic policy means recession for both Labor and Liberal..
Watch out for an ad in the next day or two that Labor will lead to a recession. Since Costello and Howard both talked about it today, it has to point to a possible advertising stratergy.
Marky Marky… exactly how will either the Labor or Liberal Party’s policy lead to recession?
I think you will find that Labor will try to design their economic policy around curbing inflation. They won’t make the same mistake that the Liberals have made.
This is a case of the Liberal ideology getting in the way of sound economic management. The Liberals always want to cut tax to starve the government so it can’t actually accomplish good things. They would’ve been better of building a desalination plant for every capital city, or building more water treatment works so we can keep all the storm water run off. But to them that would’ve be socialistic, they’d rather just cut taxes and hope the big problems fix themselves.
Kev at 58
I’m afraid Cornes has failed to cut through here in Boothby. Granted, she hasn’t been given any friendly coverage, but neither has that non-entity Southcott. Poor choice, and I hope the ALP learns from the experience. There would have to be a drover’s dog out there somewhere that could have kept a steady shop, covered off on policy and been swept to Canberra on the tidal wave…
85
New Liberal Party Website:
http://www.lies.com/
Interest rate rises, even a recession in the next year to 18 months isn’t bad for a Labor government… they’ll just blame Howard/Costello who will still be fresh in the popular memory. After that though… there will be problems.
Liberal girls are fat and ugly (Bronwyn Bishop, Amanda Vanstone).
Labor girls are intelligent and sexy (Kate Ellis, Tanya Plibersik).
I’ve got to stop this.
Forget the swing. Swings are nowhere near as relevant as they used to be 10 years + ago.
And always remember, that 4% is based on what Latham did. A dead drovers dog could do better than Latham did. The swing came down to 2% as soon as Rudd became leader.
I truly wish some people would drop the “same as 1998″ nonsense, it can’t happen. There is no One Nation to provide lib preferences this time so they will have to do it on their own primary.
If the libs can’t get their primary up by 7% over the next 4 weeks they will be routed.
Labor is for people who cannot get real jobs
Liberal is for winners who create businesses
Pages: « 1 [2] 3 4 5 … 10 » Show All