With today’s consumer price index figures said by analysts to make a Melbourne Cup interest rates hike extremely likely, Crikey offers another round of Roy Morgan data mining, this time ranking electorates in order of respondents’ various economic concerns. Morgan has also aggregated its September polling to provide state and country/city breakdowns. Also in the mail today is the latest Reuters poll trend, a weighted aggregate of Newspoll, ACNielsen and Roy Morgan. It shows essentially no change from the October 10 result, with Labor on 56.6 per cent of two party preferred (up 0.1 per cent) and 48.6 per cent of the primary vote (down 0.1 per cent), and the Coalition primary vote steady on 39.1 per cent.
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Please explain to me the difference in economic policy between Labor and Liberal parties…
Recession may not occur in the next two years… But with a current account deficit and foreign debt out of control… causing higher rates.. with household and corporate debt running at 160 per cent of GDP and interest payments now at 16 per cent of disposable income… And on housing affordability neither side has solutions… negative gearing and capital gains taxes concessions are fueling problems regarding investors buying homes causing a housing bubble…and what is the solution from both sides oh government land in areas where infrastructure is nonexistent… Fair dinkum for all you gloaters… think of the future please…
#79 – I have contended before that the unemployment rate is artificially low due to the low participation rate and the historically high under-employment rate (things that grandpa Sawford could not have known about). My hypothesis is that the Sawford prediction would be different if we do a more modern callibration of the ‘unemployment’ rate, rather than the standard labourforce figure.
Spot on Let it End.
So how soon before the Libs change their scare ads to wall-towall ALP and the GST going up?? I predict before the end of the week.
Labor keeps the economy rolling.
Liberal plays golf everyday, costs corporations billions of dollars and pay themselves substantial bonuses and salaries for doing so.
Labor is for thieving union officials
Liberal is for letting you keep what you earn
Labor is for paying taxes.
Liberal is for hidden taxation schemes.
Labor is for taxing all your money
Liberal is for giving it back to you
I just got polled by The Advertiser in the seat of Adelaide.
Questions –
* First Preference Vote
* How likely to change?
* Who did you vote for last time?
* Age
Expect that to come out on Friday.
There is one aspect of wall-to-wall Labor that the Liberal dopes don’t get – these Labor Governments were elected, they have been chosen by the people in a democratic fashion. The Liberals are so dumb they just don’t understand.
Winners and losers? I despair…
I did not ask for silly comments
Labor is for spending on services.
Liberal is for taxing the poor to give to the rich.
If labor wins 14 seats they can form a minority govt…..
govt can be won without Mr Howard losing Bennelong or Mr Turnbull
being defeated in Wentworth
Swings will be all over the place
If I were a Lib or National with a margin of less than say 10%
I would be very concerned
This election seems to be shaping up like NSW 1988 or SA 1979
state elections
Labor governments bring unemployment and recession
Liberal governments take us out of recession and into prosperity
Labor is for high interest rates
Liberal is for high interest rates
Zenk 108 – Kate Ellis “will bolt it in”
Pause Tabitha, 7.30 Report on now.
Warringah 83 – yes, Laurie did point it out. 1916, Howard has regressed again.
Labor is for spending on services for their mates
Labor is for taxing the life out of business so no one has a job
El nino totally correct…
Oh come on tabitha. It’s fine in moderation but please don’t push it.
My prediction, Labor 86 seats including Bennelong which will go on the night.
Marky,
Considering you are someone who regularly promotes Green policies which would probably damage the economy it’s hard to take you seriously.
Greens are for high interest rates
116 – I agree, I think Kate will get a 6% swing at least.
I asked the Tiser pollster what she does for her day job (due to speculation on this site about where the tiser does its polling).
She said she worked in circulations (ie. selling papers) and in election time they all have to do lots of overtime.
Tabitha said ‘Labor is for people who cannot get real jobs
Liberal is for winners who create businesses’.
I actually have a real job and you dont sound like much of a winner. Sorry I couldnt resist
/me passes Tabitha a cracker.
Who’s a good parrot?
Agreed, LTEP. No more from Tabitha for now.
William Bowe
http://www.pollbludger.com
this is too good from last night not to mention. Sorry VoterBoy but it was so fresh not to mention again
VoterBoy of Over the Water Says:
October 23rd, 2007 at 8:52 pm
OK, just got off the phone from a 3/4hr chat with my senior Liberal staffer mate. If he sees this he’ll kill me, and then he’ll laugh, I suspect… Well, as they say, if you don’t laugh, you cry.
Quotes:
‘â€It’s all over. We’ve just put 40bn in the first week and it’s got us 16 points behind. What do we do now?â€
“We’re tearing our hair out. They’re shooting the alsatians.â€
On the debate: “Rudd stayed on message – kept it simple. Howard was all over the place. He talked about everything that came into his mind. Rudd was talking about his education revolution. Howard says, ‘we’ve got our own education revolution’. You never steal the other guy’s lines. And what was it – he got all irritated and started talking about the culture wars – that he and Keith Windschuttle understood but no one else in Australia did.â€
“There’s only one theme that works for us – the economy – but we can’t stick to that, we’re all over the shop.â€
“We got the normal bounce, we put out $34bn but people have turned off. People thought at first, oh, that’s alright, but then Rudd just said ‘me-too’ and people said ‘that’s fine’.
“You know what our problem is? People are now saying ‘with Rudd, we can have fiscal conservatism and national security and we don’t have to have all the ugly stuff that goes along with you guys’.
I asked what the ugly stuff was. “You know, f*c*ing people over for a dollar on education and health. And then John did the pretend stuff on reconciliation, but then ‘I’m not going to say I’m sorry’. Having tried to demonise every section of the population, Kevin Andrews was forced to go out to find 20,000 Sudanese in Victoria, and even that didn’t work. People can now see they can have what they want without the ugly side.â€
On the Newspoll: “It’s not an aberration. It’s got 1-2% consistency – maybe 3% – with every poll since August.â€
Are they likely to go more negative? (this was what I had predicted on another thread). “We can’t go much more negative. We went on Rudd’s inexperience, but that doesn’t ring true. We went negative on unions – that’s kind of running, but we’re not really cutting through. Now with Gillard we’re trying unions+ communists…. (laughs)â€
I ventured that on the Gillard line, most people these days didn’t even know what a communist was. I also said that if the ALP had any sense, they’d say ‘Here was someone trying to bring these people into mainstream centrist politics and you’re having a go at her.’
He said “Julia Gillard is a perfectly respectable person – we’re mad if we think we can paint her as a left-wing extremist.â€
On Howard: “He’s cranky, he’s rigid.â€
On Costello: “In Saturday’s Age he said he’s running the whole operation, he’ll not only hold the marginals, but he’s going to win Labor seats as well. I thought ‘I’ll put that up on my fridge. And I won’t have to wait long to see how that turns out.’â€
KLASSIC KWOTE: “So, Brian Loughnane, having delivered the historical worst result in Victoria, could be in charge of the worst result Federally.â€
I’m maintaining my prediction of Labor winning 100+ seats. In light of Newspoll, Rudd’s convincing debate win and interest rate rises, I’m upping my prob of Labor win to 95% from 80% before the debate.
Labor will invest in infrastructure, educating the population, and green technologies.
The differences in the Australian economy under Rudd and Howard
may not seem great in the next few years but will become considerable
over the longer term.
Joining and helping create an international emission trading scene
sooner will also be a big boost to the economy in the long run.
(As well as having other important benefits)
So debt is not a problem Paul K… and selling Australian Resources to the Chinese and buying them back as finished goods is okay as well.. What sort of country do we have here.. It is embarassing.. to watch it….
re 129
that is amazing – I hope that’s all true!
The full blown anti-Workchoices campaign has not even started yet…That will surely get some more votes!
Zochling, are you a member of the fruitfly flying circus?
Marky I never said it wasn’t a problem, but that doesn’t mean we’re automatically going into recession. In any case considering you believe in policies which may very well send interest rates through the roof I don’t see how you can point fingers. Perhaps you’d like to enlighten us on how the Greens will solve all our economic problems.
I’m back Tabbie,
Labor pays you a fair days pay for a fair days work.
Liberal pays you work for the dole in the private sector.
William that was fun.
No, but I wish I was
Agree Labor will invest more in education and intellectual technology and put a greater effort into climate change agree… but these things are the peripherals aroung economic policy… Economic policy is about monetary policy and fiscal policy and what are both sides offering on such.. Monetary policy is being used as the main lever.. and interest rates as the stick to slow an economy down… and interest rates take time to have effect on people and should with tax policy be used as a measure to slow our economy down….
Marky Marky, I agree that there are great risks in our economic situation at the moment. However there is real difference between Labor & Liberal policy. Labor correctly identifies that we need to build capacity and productivity.
This involves building infrastructure especially efficient ports and rail freight systems (my professional life is on the transport side, though more in moving people than freight).
Also important is increasing our skills base (and not just by immigration). The way the unis have been knackered, and education made so expensive, is the big problems here.
Also the Tory tax regime has not encouraged participation rates, at least until the 34B “tax policy”. The best parts of this for participation are raising of the low-income tax offset and lowest marginal rate thresholds. And guess what – this is the bit they copied from Swan’s reply to the 2005 budget. He has been pushing the need for these measures for several years now. I get tired of hearing how Labor is me-tooing; far more the other way around.
I would guess Labor’s tax cuts would have been a fair bit less than 31B (due to inflationary pressures) but the Tory 34B bribe forced them to follow suit to a point. Howard has been bragging about this today, the old fraud. What a brag, that he has brought serious inflation risk into the election bidding war.
So without thinking it’ll be easy, Labor is actually focussed on building capacity and productivity, so that gives us a chance to weather the inevitable downturn that’s coming. With Howard & Costello, no hope.
I’m expecting Labor’s spending promises to come, now that their lead is at least holding, will be very much following these principles; rather than trying to win the battle of the billions. At least I sure hope so
Just watched the two market economists on 7:30 report (Eslake from ANZ, Robertson from Macquarie) demolish the Smirk’s few remaining economic credentials. Comnplete agreement that the case for a rate rise is compelling and clear. Eslake rubbished Smirk’s attempt at suggesting that the CPI is within the right band. Apparently the market is at 85% for a rise in Nov, 66% for another rise in Feb.
Costello is on thin ice and trying to have a bit each way. Saying the underlying rate is irrelevant when it is high but arguing that it is all that matters when it’s low. He has lost credibility with a lot of economists.
Never said i was a greenie Paul K… i look at all policies and make up my mind who provides the best policies for the future.. and currently the Greens do because of Climate Change because this is at this moment is the Number issue and will be for the rest of my lifetime… seeing that may be another sixty years… Both major parties on Climate Change have no idea of the harshness of Climate Change each year…
Fires in Australia, Greece and now for what major efforts California… The parties should be saying no to tax cuts and investing in Solar Technology and Wind Farms and Geothermal Technology… Instead their solutions are to provide handouts to farmers on land which we continue to suggest will get rain soon and the drought will break.. how much longer will this bulldust continue…. and we are not in El Nino…
And what is the business community doing……
William, why do you let Tabitha get away with “her” trolling?
Paul K at 136,
This economist never thought he had any credibility to begin with.
Marky @ 144,
Not quite sure how all that is supposed to keep interest rates low and pay off the debts you talk about but to each his own.
Tabitha. annexed.
Glen arrives in 1hr. tops
Possum, do you think the interest rate speculation will have a measurable effect on the next poll (Galaxy?)? Or do you think it will be “business as usual” within the MOE?
Marky Marky, Labor’s first task is to win the election. Everything else they may be able to do depends entirely on that; which is why they had to agree to up the ante on tax cuts, unfortunately.
As for climate change, the solutions will be technological – I agree solar will have a big future; wind farms I’m not so sure about; and don’t dismiss the possibility of cleaner coal technology. Only thing I am sure about is that we need emissions targets and carbon permit trading; that brings the whole thing into mainstream economics, which will stimulate the required r&d.
Greater efficiency in using energy is probably the most important factor of all, and I’m happy that I’m working on engineering projects that promote this.
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