With today’s consumer price index figures said by analysts to make a Melbourne Cup interest rates hike extremely likely, Crikey offers another round of Roy Morgan data mining, this time ranking electorates in order of respondents’ various economic concerns. Morgan has also aggregated its September polling to provide state and country/city breakdowns. Also in the mail today is the latest Reuters poll trend, a weighted aggregate of Newspoll, ACNielsen and Roy Morgan. It shows essentially no change from the October 10 result, with Labor on 56.6 per cent of two party preferred (up 0.1 per cent) and 48.6 per cent of the primary vote (down 0.1 per cent), and the Coalition primary vote steady on 39.1 per cent.
460 Comments
Pages: « 1 … 2 3 [4] 5 6 … 10 » Show All
Marky, sorry, but that is plain nonsense.
Private debt, apart from being a problem to the individual, is not a large problem for the economy at all. We now have massive public savings via super funds.
As for buying goods back from China well, that is actually deflationary. The cost of manufacture there is far less than here hence you pay less, there is no constraint on supply, and the rising A$ deflates the economy by reducing prices through imports . That was the whole point of de regulating the economy.
Unless of course you are now proposing reintroducing “industry protection” via tariffs which artificially inflates prices. That is is extremely infationary.
The Government had better put in an effort to get those trapped gold miners out – they’re Howard’s base vote!
While I still the Morgan figures are dodgy, there are some interesting correlations between swings to Labor and seats where voters are worried about interest rates. Look at Hume for instance. I would never have looked at Hume, but maybe there’s something going on.
The strong vote for Labor in country NSW augers well for all the seats right along the coast – Eden-Monaro, Dobell, Paterson, Cowper, Page etc.
And the support for Labor seems to be particularly strong in NSW, followed by Queensland and Victoria – and guess which three states have most of the seats?
Even in Perth, Labor will break even, or even be slightly ahead, once you distribute the preferences from the Greens and other minor parties.
I assume the people of Perth are happy with the economy not just because of the mining boom wages, but because their house prices have risen so dramatically. Anyone who got a mortgage a few years ago would still be well ahead, despite rises in interest rates. Elsewhere, home-owners ith nortgages are going, or on the verge of going, backwards.
*one time serious moment* Does anyone know where I can find the polls published during the 2004 election?
Tabitha, you are SO PRIMARY SCHOOL. So much for intelligent debate.
Back to the thread:
Forget “It’s the economy stupid”, “It’s the POLLS stupid”
Look at the primary, 2PP, PPM. Remarkably stable, all in landslide territory (even the ‘worst’ 53/47 2PP in Galaxy)
Look at the record number of committed voters- 90% in Newspoll. Howard CANT come back at this point
On the subject of polls:
Is it possible there is some sample variation in weekday polling as compared to weekend polling?
Recall we had the odd Newspoll after the Budget that was taking during the week and showed a lower than normal vote for the ALP.
Is it at all possible that the variation between ACN/Galaxy and Newspoll could be down to weekday/weekend factors?
Tabitha was just sprouting slogans and bumper stickers.
I thought Tabitha could be quite funny at times though she did over do it. Pity if she’s gone for good. Glen will be upset.
Tabitha is Glen
Glen is Tabitha
I am traditionally a Labor/ Greens voter and climate change is the number one issue for me. Mr Howards attitude towards GW is a discrace and he only started ‘believing’ in it when the polls started dramatically going pear shaped for him.
Hopefully Rattus will be political history soon and the Rudd government will take this issue more seriously.
Mr I’m calling Warringah for Zochling,
(BTW, do you have an abbreviation you’d like to be called because that’s quite a keyboard full
)
Galaxy is a poll I neither keep a record of, nor particularly pay that much attention to in the ordinary scheme of things. Their preference distributions at times border on fantasy, their timing is suspicious and their results are unreproducible by any other polling agency 50% of the time.
Will interest rates move Galaxy? Who knows. Will the political mind control rays from the space harpie Zorkon on the planet Betelgeuse 7 move the Galaxy Vote?
Equally likely in this possums opinion.
Labors spending options wysiwg on providing such things are running out… because they continue to metoo on policy.. and if the economy runs out of steam… its spending options will dissappear..
As we have one of the lowest levels of taxation in the OECD…. and Labor intends to have a surplus 1 per cent of GDP so where will the money come from for Labors’ policies and Howards for that matter… and this education revolution.. Howard favours funding elite schools.. and guess what Labor intends to keep this until 2012 and increase grants to such schools in the process..
And on Health care with an aging population Rudd intends to keep the expensive 30 per cent rebate for people on private health insurance and keep the safety net which provides great benefits to wealthy electorates…
And on workchoices and productivity… Rudd intends to keep major elements of it and delay major changes until 2010 making such policy options on productivity more difficult as a result…
Nonetheless i do agree that Labor will be better overall it is the metooism that is huge concern and at this stage if it continues i must ask what are differences between the parties on major public policy…
On everything else their are differences.. Media policy, Indigenous policy, Funding for minority groups, Foreign Policy,Enviromental policy( Kyoto), Housing policy… list goes on..
The more I see inflation data, the more I think this is a good election to lose. Though the ALP will run hard on the “look at the mess they left us” line. But jeez how crappy would it be if the ALP finally gets in and finds out the party’s over, and it’s time to tighten our belts.
It would cause one to look back over the last 6 years and think, what a bloody waste.
And while I’m t it, I’ll make a prediction about Galaxy.
At some stage through the campaign, their polls will converge to the ACN/Newspoll band and stay that way until the election.
I’ll make a prediction about ACN, Newspoll and Galaxy – they will all claim on 25 Nov to have been the most accurate.
Glen, don’t put your hard earned on Farmer in Macarthur, he is very vulnerable. His personal appeal has waned severely (he has achieved SFA). Campbelltown is rock solid Labor, Camden is Lib, but not that strongly (Labor MLA returned in March), and the estates in between are classic mortgage belt, with the added hurt of stagnant or dropping house values. The margin is really inflated due to the 2004 “who do you trust” BS. November 7 will hurt him REAL bad if the RBA pulls the trigger. Rudd’s not been spending more time in Macarthur than Latham (a Macathur resident) did in 04 to waste his precious campaigning time. The revolution could be nearer than you realise.
As for 98, as others have noted – not a chance. Beazley got a 40.1% primary. Rudd will have a primary over 45% even if he starts stuffing up. Howard is going to be pushing it up hill with a stick to get a primary of 40%, and he doesn’t have One Nation preferences to get him home in the “Battler” marginals.
Rudd can easily get to the required 75 seats (+Windsor) without a single gain in WA or Qld and a swing of under 3.5%
http://www.abc.net.au/elections/federal/2007/calculator/?swing=state&national=0&nsw=4.9&vic=5&qld=0&wa=0&sa=5.4&tas=2.7&act=0&nt=2.9&retiringfactor=1
All of the polls are showing these swings as being VERY conservative. The Newspoll breakdowns were showing 5% swings to Labor in WA as their worst result. The coalition will probably win a majority of the vote in WA (and maybe QLD) but still lose seats. Every other state will show a solid Labor majority on TPP.
Possum @ 160
ICWFZ is acceptable. The longer name just amused me. I would so love to see the Mad Monk go.
I’m interested that you say that Galaxy’s timing is suspicious. You mean not conducted at the same time each cycle? I’ve also heard murmurings that Galaxy’s questions are not quite fair.
Lomandra: because I find “her” perversely amusing in small doses.
Is it:
Sub Prime, Minister
or
Sub, Prime Minister
I would hate to get the punctuation wrong.
The Libs have now hit $3.00 on Centrebet.
McKew at the amazing odds of $2.70 – you should be all over that. I suspect a bit of assisting there from Lib faithfull – imagine the press if it got to the stage that Howard was considered unlikely to hold his seat.
It would be the signal for a rout.
When is the next poll?
Ha! Thanks, Centaur, for putting my conversation on repeat. And yes, Zenk, it is true – I did have that conversation with my senior Liberal staffer mate yesterday. Whether he’s got an accurate grasp of the situation is another matter, although he’s one of the more level-headed among that sorry band. Until now, my natural pessimism and utter lack of scientific grounding has made it difficult for me to accept the implications of all the polls and pseph chat one finds on these sites. Yesterday’s chat was probably the first time I’ve genuinely thought that Howard’s in for a belting.
Plus… have you read the contemptuous and yet remarkably well-argued responses to Dennis Shang-a-lang’s Oz piece on Howard’s pensioner bribe-fest? http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/dennisshanahan/index.php/theaustralian/comments/coalition_offers_billions_in_cash/
They are not breaking through with anyone.
Trebles and cyanide capsules all round!
ICWFZ…
Can I buy a vowel?
On the Galaxy timing, I simply say to people to compare the Galaxy poll results to the political events that were happening at the time they were published and draw whatever conclusions you wish from that.Maybe it was just pure luck.
“You know what our problem is? People are now saying ‘with Rudd, we can have fiscal conservatism and national security and we don’t have to have all the ugly stuff that goes along with you guys’.
Centaur (and Voterboy), I reckon that is about the most concise summation of the Coalition’s problem I’ve yet seen.
164 Grog
Can’t see the demand from China/India ending any time in the next decade. Targeted spending on infrastructure constraints (roads, rail, ports etc) to allow the exports to get out instead of unproductive pork feeding of “special interests” and the economy will be just fine.
#165 Ratsak – Thanks for that post. Very reassuring!
Yep, that is indeed correct. Just as you described it.
She is definitely blonde, William.
Ratsak
OATES, Meg Australian Labor Party 961 50.55 -1.51
FARMER, Pat Liberal 940 49.45 +1.51
These are the 2004 2PP results for the Campbelltown central polling booth last election – it was quite close.
Not sure Campbelltown and its suburbs are rock solid Labor. At least they weren’t in 2004.
But I hope you are right this time.
I have heard word that polling conducted in Macarthur has the seat on 50-50, and what I have heard from people while campaigning confirms a much larger swing in this electorate than the nationwide swing.
I think it’s possible that Galaxy is weighting by the last election result. Since young people are harder to interview, it would explain why they have Greens vote and Tory vote both higher than all other pollsters, as that happened at the last election among young people.
On midweek polls been more pro-Tory than weekend polls, Morgan ph has been taken Wed/Thur for the last 3 months, and has had Labor landslide results.
100
tabitha Says:
If only it was true. Today the parliamentary Liberal party are a bunch of backward looking, unelectable extremists. A pretty irrelevant monoculture.
Labor is for people who have an education, and know the past, whilst planning for the future.
Liberal is for people that are ignorant and only know hate.
I don’t think this is a “good election to lose”. The inflation problem is solely due to bad management (avoidable supply constraints) and is fixable. Indeed, given the very fortunate economic circumstances at present, the Liberals deserve to lose for letting it happen. There are many issues people want to see change on. Whoever changes them stands to stay in power for some time.
(Purely personal rave on the future…)
Fortunately, the Chinese and Indians are not about to start dismantling their new factories, so I can’t see things stopping economically in the medium term unless maybe someone of Bushian-stupidity starts a few wars. (You can never predict the future.) This assumes that as soon as the Republicans are turfed next year, Kyoto will be signed and we will start to solve the world’s real long term problems, which are not actually economic IMO. Even then, as anyone who has read the Stern report would appreciate, solving problems like climate change and oil shortages will reduce growth by maybe 10%, not create a recession, and in fact create some long term jobs. Lets not be too pessimistic, after all we’re about to get a new government
Hope you’re right Let it End.
On a non-inflation issue, I thought the Crikey article about Nelson as LIb leader was a bad sign for the LIbs. Not so much the Nelson aspect, but the fact that such discussion is goingon (and reported). If the discussion ever hits the MSM it’s lights out for the Libs.
Ratsak @173 – absolutely right – and my mate really emphasised that as he was saying it.
And there’s no escape from that for the Libs.
(Hate to sound obsessive, but just went back to look at the Shanahan article on the oldies bribe and the comments in response. 45 comments in all. One is rather vague and off-topic. The remaining 44 are strongly anti-Howard. Quite a few of these also have a go at Shanahan. Not one – not one – is pro-Howard. I think we might be about to witness a massive and historic collapse of the Liberal vote.)
Aside from Bennelong, which seat do you think the ALP HQ gets most giggly about when late at night they look at the polls and think “jeez would could win ______”.
North Sydney?
Higgins and Warringah
186
It would have to be the trio of Bennelong, Wentworth and North Sydney, considering that none of them have been ever held by Labor and it would knock out the PM and the ministers for two of the big issues which have brought the Libs unstuck (climate change and IR).
VoterBoy,
I agree. What is Howard actually going to achieve with the oldies vote-buy? It just confirms votes already in his pocket, and only embitters all those of pre-retirement age who will have to pay $4B in taxes for them. They aren’t even means tested, so they will go to some retirees who are assett rich, making them very vulnerable to attack. Howard needs to gain support, and I can’t see him gaining any new votes from that measure. This isn’t the US where many young people don’t vote and the old dominate. Those over 65 are a growing number, but they are still a minority of voters. The interest rate news will anger middle-aged people with mortgages (and perhaps the young who can’t aford to acquire a house in the first place) and teh pensioner vote-buy won’t make any diference to them.
As a follow on question, in terms of rates of home buying, does anyoen know which marginals (in the 16 seat pendulum) have the highest rate of people paying mortgages?
I believe the campaign has been great for the alp so far.
Yes we only have 4 weeks to go to the election and they are looking all right.
I still believe the libs could win this election (just like the alp could) at the moment i think its 55/45 to the alp in terms of percentage (just like the polls) however this could change in the blink of an eye.
If it doesn’t change within the next 2-3 weeks and the polls are still the same with 1-2 weeks to go, then the alp may just be able to breathe a little easier.
Kevin Rudd has played this quite well up till now, once the main stream media gets a hint that the coalition have thrown in the towel (if they throw in the towel) will they start abandoning them? (has this already started happening?)
Warringah would have them well past the giggling stage!
Can someone tell me what Belinda Neal had on her Weet-Bix this morning?
This genius suggested increasing the rate of the GST. Rudd and Swan were both delighted with her insightful contribution.
Didn’t Neal lose Robertson twice as the ALP candidate? From what I’ve heard she was a dud candidate both times, especially in 1998 when she should have won the seat easily.
How was she pre-selected again? Does she have photos of someone?
She must have some pretty strong strings!
So what happened to the narrowing?
I reckon we’ll find it in the same place as the budget bounce.
With the Reserve Bank almost certain to lift interest rates for the sixth time since Howard promised to keep them at record lows in 2004, things can only get worse.
The poor old Libs are looking awfully threadbare.
Still, it seems that there are still a few fanatics around prepared to spruik a Liberal win. That’s the spirit.
They’re a bit like Communists who, after the fall of the old Soviet Union, were unable to believe what had happened, unable to accept it and completely incapable of moving on. They may be completely stuck in the past, but I have to admit that I admire their ideological purity and commitment to the cause.
They’re every bit as good as the Trots.
Grog, I think any discussion on Nelson as a leader at any time is absolutely disastrous for the Libs. I would only ever consider him if the entire party meeting could be held in a phone booth where it would be a choice of 1.
Socrates, I do agree with most of what you say except for one point. Unfortunately, though no pollie will actually say it, one large factor fuelling inflation is just plain private greed, people creating too much demand by spending beyond their ability to pay. In the end they, and not the govt, will suffer the pain that will eventually be the consequence of that.
ShowsOn
Get your facts right you wrong, where did you come up with this BS.
ice444
On media reporting – yes IMO. I thought Andrew Bolt on Lateline on Monday night was absolutely doing just that. He seemed positively annoyed with Gerard Henderson, almost saying “I warned you, and now look at this mess..”
In Adelaide, the Advertiser has even been reporting its seat-by-seat polls (devastatingly pro-Labor) fairly impartially to my perception in the past few days. Whereas before they were too pro-Liberal for a Joe Hockey press release. Seeing the polls, you would have to be congenitally pro-Liberal not to rexamine your attitudes lately if you were reporting in the media.
An interest rate rise at such stage of the campaign will put an end to the political careers of both Howard and Costello. Howard will have to go and get another life and Costello will give us plenty of enjoyment as leader of the opposition until he gets knifed.
Hi Lom.
This close to the date that really matters no party (correct me if I’m wrong) has had the sort of lead(on average) that the ALP currently enjoys, without handsomely winning government. Looks like Labor winning between 85 and 95 seats to me.
I wonder what the chasers are up to tonight?
Gaynor 192, Neal must be the dumbest candidate to mention that bit about the GST – it is guaranteed to fuel the coming ad campaign. JWH and Costello have nothing left to go for, so wait for the ads.
Pages: « 1 … 2 3 [4] 5 6 … 10 » Show All