With today’s consumer price index figures said by analysts to make a Melbourne Cup interest rates hike extremely likely, Crikey offers another round of Roy Morgan data mining, this time ranking electorates in order of respondents’ various economic concerns. Morgan has also aggregated its September polling to provide state and country/city breakdowns. Also in the mail today is the latest Reuters poll trend, a weighted aggregate of Newspoll, ACNielsen and Roy Morgan. It shows essentially no change from the October 10 result, with Labor on 56.6 per cent of two party preferred (up 0.1 per cent) and 48.6 per cent of the primary vote (down 0.1 per cent), and the Coalition primary vote steady on 39.1 per cent.
460 Comments
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With WA jumping into the ‘who knows’ basket in recent days, I am hoping Labor gets it sorted out long before the votes from Hasluck, Stirling, Cowan, Swan et al come across the picket fence.
In NSW I have pencilled in Parramatta, Lindsay, Eden Monaro and Dobell as Labor gains and left out Bennelong and Wentworth>
I have left the door open for Page, Paterson and Robertson.
The Labor candidate for Robertson did herself no favours today in overcoming the 6.9 2PP margin by virtually claiming Rudd promised her a reveiw of the distrubution of the GST in favour of NSW {Link below}
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/10/24/2069524.htm?site=elections/federal/2007
If Labor gets 5 of the 7 I have nominated in NSW you can put down the glasses, it will be clear that WA will not be needed to win this election and if Bennelong and/or Wentworth fall too, a Ruddslide beyond 25 seats is on.
for distrubution read distribution. doh.
Chaser is brilliant as usual (Tassie 1hr ahead).
Watch out for “the twitch”!!
Let it end- pure economic rationalist rubbish…
So it is okay if China racks up huge Government surpluses which it is the highest in the world by a mile… And we don’t and we allow our resources to go to them… why can’t we use them here and make the goods and then sell them to the Chinese and the rest of the world… no can’t do that we havn’t got the brains or inclination here… what kind of economy are we running.. oh let the asian countries do it and let us buy their cheap goods because it is deflationary… what happens to an economy when the resources run at ? Yep China has all the machines, skills and technology to do things why Australians continue importing… Are you for real….
And on foreign debt… sorry wrong again…
Our interest rates other than New Zealand are the highest in the OECD and rising… and this usual argument that public savings cause interest rates… pure economic rationalist dribble…Fair dinkum go back and read your economic rationalist textbook…written by a rich techoncrat…
If our interest rates were determined by this than Japan’s interest rates would be far higher and they have more government debt and so would America…
No relationship…what so ever
Foreign debt makes them higher because it is about expectations… regarding inflation, savings, the future, and the amount required to service GDP and we have the second highest debt to GDP ratio in the world…
Moreover debt ratios effect interest rates because you have to borrow money to service such and high debts mean that borrowing markets see such large levels as unsustainable and a significant supply burden for such markets thus feeding into mechanisms that control such domestic interest rates… Further as demand for money increases as the government is fueling by not borrowing interest rates rise….
Let it end i am sorry your right wing logic is pure fairies at the bottom of the garden stuff….
82
William Bowe Says:
October 24th, 2007 at 7:01 pm
Thanks for clarify the facts. I am a strong believer in establishing and maintaining an open and transparent selection process. the more we move to the implementation of electronic vote counting systems the more important it is that information and data is readily available. I suggest “ShowsOn” reads the submissons and evidence transcriptions of the Victorian Parliamentary review and also takes another look at various reports on Fairvote.org then maybe he/she will begin to gain a better idea of the importance of making relevant data available. Public elections are not just about`providing feed and fodder for the media industry. Scrutiny of the ballot is just as important as feeding the media…
Socrates 183 – I don’t fully agree that China is bulletproof. There is going to be a recession in the US next year. This is due to the sub prime mortgage problem as a lot of those loans revert to higher interest rates over the next six months. As the US economy is 70% driven by consumer spending, including lots of stuff from China (and other Asian countries) there would be a significant effect on China’s economy. This in turn would mean less sales to China of our mineral resources and a slowdown, but not recession, here.
189
The so called “oldie” pork is not about winning votes, it’s desperation to limit the size of the rout.
Another like this week and the Coalition will be pushing the women and children aside as they try to get their fat behinds into the lifeboats. At that point the MSM will be calling them a rabble, unelectable etc etc and even the rusted on Liberals in Bennelong will have to put Howard down like a geriatric dog.
This is like a Roman circus, with lots of body parts. Bring on the lions!
Gee the Labor staffers are out in force tonight…looks like you all drew the short straws…
204
Absolute nonsense, however you go on believing whatever suits you Marky, no problem to me.
And what are you Glen…
Grog #200
Yes, but how did she get pre-selected again?
She’s a dud.
I am not a staffer that makes me a minority on this blog…aside from being a Tory.
Glen have you checked out the new Liberal Party Website yet?
http://www.lies.com/
Gaynor,
Belinda Neal has lived in Woy Woy Bay with husband John for over 20 years. Together they have raised their two sons on the Central Coast.
Belinda has experience as a Gosford City Councilor and as a Senator. Her priorities have always been local jobs, roads, services and infrastructure. She has a practical working knowledge of government to offer the electorate of Robertson.
Belinda established and ran a small business in Erina. Belinda knows that viable local businesses and a strong economy mean more local jobs.
She was a Foundation Board member of Central Coast Mariners, and is deeply committed to the Umina United Soccer Club. Belinda has been involved in many local groups including the Community Tenancy Scheme, the Central Coast Women’s Health Centre and Child Abuse Prevention Services.
Belinda’s work and life experiences will provide fresh thinking for the Central Coast. She will be a strong local voice and a vital part of Kevin Rudd’s team.
Glen,
Your future is on Telly
Sunday 28.10.2007 – 9.30pm – SBS Television
Anyone know when the next polls will be released.
Morgan 26/10?
Newspoll 30/10
Will ACN and Galaxy be fortnightly from now?
I have been waiting for an updated Galaxy of Bennelong.
Please – any info would be great!
Perhaps you’ve checked out the new Labor Party website….
http://www.communism.com/
So statistics lie Let it end… I suppose at least I look analyse them and see the relationships… and yep i wasn’t fooled by the Milton Freidmans of the world.. who was all about making the wealthy wealthier…
Joined the club Let it End… Yep
Marky Mark,
I am an economist (not that that should mean much).
I have been banging on about the debt problem for a few years now.
In my opinion we have gone beyond the point where much can be done.
Before 1996 our manufacturing industries were growing at record levels with the help of pretty good Industry policy from Labor. In theory if this has kept trending the way it was we would not have anywhere near the current account (and debt) mess that we have now.
Instead in his infinite wisdom Howard dismantled all of the Labor industry policy (including importantly the 150% R&D offset). Since 1996 the manufacturing industry has gone backwards at a record rate and we now have dangerous levels of debt.
If Labor got in today it would take at least 10 years of solid industry support to turn the economy around from a debt economy.
The likelihood is that the next downturn (which will have to come from China) will happen within that timeframe.
You have to not think of the current economy in the cirumstances it is in now. You must think of how it would currently handle a world recession. With our current levels of debt, you don’t have to be an economist to imagine that what will happen will be disaterous when the downturn finally hits.
AM, please stop repeatedly posting the same comment.
William Bowe
http://www.pollbludger.com
#214,
Good one, had a good chuckle I did.
Glen,
I’m not a Labor staffer (in fact I’m not a member of any party but that doesn’t stop me wanting to see the Rat sacked) but I can understand you feeling outnumbered tonight. Obviously all the Liberal staffers are desperately rewriting their CVs and are too busy to post…
221
Ok
I believe the next poll will be closer to 55-45 than 58-42. Amazing the power of one poll though.
Paul K where are you tonight? Are you gonna give us some of that old time Democrat anger? Filling up on mung beans?
Besides AM, isn’t this the new Liberal party website?
http://www.funeralsaustralia.com.au/
#218
That was quite funny too. A bit old school maybe but still amusing.
Marky at 204 said:
“why can’t we use them [Australian resources] here and make the goods and then sell them to the Chinese and the rest of the world”
FOr the simple reason that if we made, say DVD players here they’d cost 200 bucks a unit, the Chinese can make them for, retail, $50 a unit.
Tell me Marky, how many people around the word do you think will buy a $200 DVD player rather than a $50 ine that are exactly the same in quality?
That’s why we dont make them
It’s called comparative advantage.
When the resources run out, we’ll adapt – like everyone else in the world dpes, and has always done.
Now I agree, we need a lot more on the education front, but but we should always do, first and foremost, what we are best at.
And at the moment, we are better at selling raw materials (as well as supporting industry products like mining software, engineering technology etc right down to human resources like project management skills) that we are at making stuff that others can make better, for cheaper.
On foreign debt, you must compare stocks with stocks and flows with flows.
SO foreign debt must be compared to assets, and debt servicing must be compared to income.COmparing stocks with flows is a mugs game that serves absolutely no practical use.
I dont think anyone has said that public savings cause interest rates. In Australia, global rates, domestic inflation and the value of the AUD is the major cause of interest rates (although the latter 2 are intertwined to some extent because of the foreign impact on out inflation targeting regime of the RBA) because of our instituional set up, and the biggest medium-long term domestic threat to inflation is labour shortages.
This isnt fairies at the bottom of the garden stuff – its the mechanics of the trading economy that gives 5 billion people their livelihoods and standards of living.
But this isnt the right forum for this argument so I’ll leave it at that.
ESJ at 215
Good one ESJ, straight cut n paste from the Labor website, precious. God you must be bored Ed.
What they forgot to mention was she has little political sense {see my posting at 201}.
Once again she has stuck her foot in it.
Maybe she and the Labor candidate for Boothby can do a Kath-n-Kim duo in the HOR if the electorate are gullible enough to give them the nod. It would, at least, be slightly more entertaining than Pauline Hanson’s ‘please explain’, just.
Jarusa… Totally agree with everything you have said…
The next recession will not be a recession it will be a depression… why debt.. people working casually, now 30 per cent of the workforce…
and agree with you about a lack of investment in manufacturing and university education and productivity into the intellectual requirements of the world…
Jarusa this would help curb the debt situation or slightly sustain it but now it is to late… it is out of control…
But don’t forget the fact that before 96 the rationalists were having an affect on the economy with tariff cuts which were to quick… privatisation of the government assets.. .telecommunications.competition. what a joke this has become… and Labor will do something about it… someone please tell how it overcome the regulation dilemma…
Airlines and Commonwealth Bank… why how many airlines have gone down since… Commonwealth Bank and poor working conditions for people.. realistically the only people who benefited were the shareholders….
ESJ #215
Thanks for the information. I’m sure she is a fine person.
But fair dinkum, she’s a political lemon. What would inspire her to speculate about increasing the rate of the GST? Howard will clutch at it like a drowning man clutches at straws.
She is a 2 time election loser who owes her pre-selection to her powerful union husband.
Not a good look.
I think I listened to the news on the way home. Labor promises better roads in Melbourne, talks about moving goods more efficiently. The Liberal promise two military high schools. Have the chasers taken over the Liberal campaign, what is going on?
Edward,
What is this obsession you have with me and the Democrats? I’m not a Democrat but I don’t know how I’m supposed to prove a negative. Anyway it seems like the thought of it gives you the jollies. Keep living in your alternate universe.
annnnd bingo!… told ya….
heya Glen!
right on time
that bus rides a killer aint it
Apologies for my typo’s – tapping away on the verandah in the dark seems to do that. I’ve turned the light on!
Shanahan prepares to slit wrists:
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22458164-5013871,00.html
At least the candidate for Boothby wouldn’t have to say ‘look at moi, look at moi, look at moi’. She is pretty easy on the red blooded heterosexual eye… one saving grace I suppose.
Glen,
I went to a Labor Party fundraiser once, but that’s the extent of it (and if there was ever anything to put me off joining the Labor Party, it was that). It sounds as if you’re beginning to show those signs of paranoia that were once the preserve of the left in the ‘dark days’ of what seemed to be unbreakable Liberal rule – ie. people who genuinely couldn’t understand why anyone wouldn’t want to vote for Clyde Holding or Keith Wright or Mad Mark, and therefore assumed that undemocratic dealings were afoot.
My only concern for you, however, is that your side is not out of power yet, and to show such signs of suspicion at such an early stage could be seriously damaging to your health. Relax. You still have the perks of office. And you have another month at least of hope and sunshine, before the roof falls in on you and utterly destroys everything you have ever worked for or believed in.
ESJ, Paul K is not Paul Kavanagh.
forgive me Marky for prior suggestion of concern troll status, sadly it seems you do actually believe it after all.
ShowsOn 236, that has to be the most sensible thing I’ve ever heard Shanahan say.
ShowsOn at 236 – I love those Oz vids. It’s sort of a cross between community television and political paint by numbers.
I particularly like the current edition of the Oz sticky taped to the wall behind him.
PC 242, and would it kill them to buy a decent microphone?
Grog – have sympathy.
The Oz runs at a loss you know.
228 Possum
Yep, that’s what I was saying as well.
#236
Another Rat getting ready to jump the sinking ship?
OMG …………….. even if he can’t bring himself to say it in print, this might be as close as he can let himself go …….. Howard is done, gone, kaput, finished – if Shanahan can be this upfront and honest about the coalitions problems ….. Wonder what his print story will be tomorrow?
Give the fags away Poss, then you wont have to sit out on the verandah mate.
19 Nostradamus Yes and a house with a white picket fence, god didn’t make little green apples.
And Utah is such a loverly place. I see the sunshine beaming down over me.
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