As reported by the Sydney Morning Herald (link broken at the time of writing), GetUp! has commissioned its third national poll of Senate voting intention from Galaxy. This is a highly dubious exercise which is producing very strange results. Make whatever you like from the news that Labor’s vote has slumped in the last month from 39 per cent to 33 per cent. The sample size was 1003; Family First and the Democrats were both on 2 per cent.
| ALP | LNP | GRN | |
| October 20/21 | 33 | 38 | 11 |
| September 8/9 | 39 | 35 | 10 |
| June 23/24 | 38 | 34 | 13 |
| 2004 Election | 35.0 | 45.0 | 7.7 |
UPDATE: GetUp! press release here. Maddeningly, “other/don’t know” has been rolled into one.
707 Comments
Is 1003 a magic number? Seems a bit specific.
The link is broken again. I suspect there is a problem with the story and they have pulled it.
It certainly does seem a bit off compared with the other numbers.
Chinster, I don’t think it’s ever been working – I did not access the article from their website. The West Australian has a report as well, which reads:
Okay. I’ll state the obvious.
Ridiculously small sample even for a HoR survey. I find it very difficult to take this at all seriously. To do justice to a Senate Survey you would need to have serious samples for all States at the very least, so you are looking at a survey size of around the 10,000 mark.
Even then, given that you are talking about small percentages for quotas and know little about preference deals yet you have a problem.
Finally, many pollsters would contend that few voters are focussed on the Senate in the campaign and that you would need to poll their opinion on the HoR first before asking them about the Senate.
GetUp! are biased as they want to restore the Senate to a situation where minor parties have the balance of power. I’ve signed up to them and support about 90% of what they are campaigning for, which is I believe their philosophy. I will be seriously suggesting that they spend their money (which includes my donations) more wisely.
From GetUp! press release regarding their previous survey with similar sample size in September 07.
“Interviews were conducted using CATI (computer assisted telephone interviewing) with telephone numbers randomly selected from electronic White Pages. Age, gender and region quotas were applied to the sample. Following the completion of interviewing, the data was weighted by age, gender and region to reflect the latest Australian Bureau of Statistics population estimates.
The survey of 1004 Australians had a 3% margin of error nationally. The survey hada large enough sample size to break out results in New South Wales and Victoria independently.”
I’m no polling expert but I find a 3% margin of error nationally a little difficult to accept and regardless what does this mean on a State by State basis?
The sample size is fine. The typical Newspoll sample size, for instance, is not far north of 1000.
Though you could make the case that a cumulative national figure is less meaningful for the Senate than it is for the House of Reps. That’s because the Senate is grossly malapportioned and not all votes are equal.
As for your last query: If they had sample sizes of 350 for NSW and 250 for Victoria then that would mean MoEs of 5% and 6% respectively.
I’d agree that by far the biggest problem is the artificiality of a Senate poll.
Who gets the other 14%?
Do I believe the ALP will do worse in the ‘07 election in the Senate than in ‘04?
No. Even if they completely burn out in this campaign they will not receive 2% less than ‘04.
My prediction is they’ll get around 40-42% of the Senate vote, the Libs also around 40-42% with the others squabbling for the rest.
Family First will not receive a significant portion of votes, since people don’t know who they are.
______________________________________________________
Predictions as at 24 October 2007
Nostradmus Coalition: 77-79 seats
LTEP: Coalition, 78 seats
BaztheSpaz: ALP, 77 seats
BrissyRod: ALP, 79 seats
Howard Hater: ALP, 79 seats (independent win in Forrest)
Swing Lowe: ALP, 81 seats
Let It End: ALP, 85 seats
Ratsak: ALP: 85 seats
ShowsOn: ALP, 85 seats
Bluebottle: ALP, 85-87 seats
Sinowestie: ALP, 86 seats (independent gain, Howard to lose Bennelong)
CL de Footscray: ALP, 89 seats.
Possum: ALP, 89 seats
John Rocket: ALP, 90 seats
ruawake: ALP, 100 seats
Lord D: ALP, 100+ seats
Ashley: ALP, 146 seats
We still need more Coalition backers here. Glen’s backing them but refusing to put a number down.
Hey thanks for doing that LTEP!
I’ll also add that I don’t think we can abstract any information as to the improvement of the Coalition vote in this poll in relation to a HofR election. In my view, I think the Coalition receives roughly the same vote (plus around 2%) in the Senate as the House.
It’s mostly ALP voters who change parties in the Senate. This means that even if this poll were correct I’d say we’d be looking at 41-42% tops for the Coalition in the HofR, hardly much of an improvement on the last Galaxy.
LTEP, if you’re tabulating predictions; add mine: ALP 82; Coalition 66; IND 2.
LTEP
Put me down for ALP 87 seats (assume 54/46 vote). It also is one of the unluckiest numbers in Australian cricket, which would be fitting for the former Member for Bennelong. I think the Liberals will claw it back a little from here but with the intertest rate decision their chance of victory is gone IMO. Labor just need to stay disciplined.
As for the Senate, I find this poll hard to reconcile too. But as for Family First, I think they will not get much, but for precisely the opposite reason – people do realise what they are now! Every minor party should just remind punters what they have already voted for, and that will see them reduced.
LTEP
I’ll go with Labor on 83 seats.
Mine was 83. And I think Ashley was 147
I was also collecting predictions, a couple more I had found.
predictions as at 24 October 2007
—————————————–
Nostradmus Coalition: 77-79 seats
LTEP: Coalition, 78 seats
BaztheSpaz: ALP, 77 seats
BrissyRod: ALP, 79 seats
Howard Hater: ALP, 79 seats (independent win in Forrest)
Swing Lowe: ALP, 81 seats
Let It End: ALP, 85 seats
Ratsak: ALP: 85 seats
ShowsOn: ALP, 85 seats
Bluebottle: ALP, 85-87 seats
Sinowestie: ALP, 86 seats (independent gain, Howard to lose Bennelong)
CL de Footscray: ALP, 89 seats.
Possum: ALP, 89 seats
John Rocket: ALP, 90 seats
ruawake: ALP, 100 seats
Lord D: ALP, 100+ seats
Ashley: ALP, 146 seats
Don Wigan: ALP, 115-120
Adam: ALP, 95
Charles: ALP, 105
So a 10% swing in Primary to the ALP in the HOR corresponds to a 2% away from the ALP in the Senate ……. asphinctersayswhat?
BTW LTEP put me down for ALP 93 seats
More predictins, plus alpha order.
Ashley: ALP, 146
Adam: ALP, 95
Ashley: ALP, 146 seats
BaztheSpaz: ALP, 77 seats
Bluebottle: ALP, 85-87 seats
BrissyRod: ALP, 79 seats
Charles: ALP, 105
CL de Footscray: ALP, 89 seats
Don Wigan: ALP, 115-120
JJ: ALP, 83 seats
John Rocket: ALP, 90 seats
Howard Hater: ALP, 79 seats (independent win in Forrest)
Karma Policeman: ALP, 82
Let It End: ALP, 85 seats
Lord D: ALP, 100+ seats
LTEP: Coalition, 78 seats
Nostradmus Coalition: 77-79 seats
Pancho: ALP, 83
Possum: ALP, 89 seats
Ratsak: ALP: 85 seats
ruawake: ALP, 100 seats
ShowsOn: ALP, 85 seats
Sinowestie: ALP, 86 seats (independent gain, Howard to lose Bennelong)
Swing Lowe: ALP, 81 seats
Galaxy just polled Charles’ list – and the headline result…
Labor 92%
Coalition 8%
I found mine, which was
95-52-3 to the ALP
and
Yo ho ho Says:
October 24th, 2007 at 4:23 pm
78-70 ALP
Coalition – 80 seats
ALP – 87
There is 14% missing in the senate poll, maybe it should read ALP 43%.
Put me down for ALP 92 Charles.
Finally, someone at the Australian who admits that many of their journalists have sympathies towards the Coalition:
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22638826-13480,00.html
Three people were standing on the side of a river wondering how to get across. Two ALP supporters and Nostradmus. A crocodile swam up to them and offered to take them across if they stood on his head, they were a bit dubious at first, but he said he had just eaten. So the first ALP supporter climbed aboard, the crocodile swam out to the middle then threw the ALP supporter in the air, then gulp down he went. He swam back to the bank and said to other ALP supporter climb aboard, “but you’ll eat me”, “No I won’t I am full” said the crocodile. So he climbed aboard half way across he did the same thing. Then he went back to Nostradmus. “Climb aboard” he said. “No you’ll eat me ” said Nostradmus. “No I just don’t like those ALP types” said the crocodile”. Nostradmus was in a hurry so he climbed aboard. Half way across he threw him in the air and swallowed Nostradmus. A few second later he spat him out and Nostradmus swam to shore where he found a farmer watching. “How did you do that?” I just mentioned that I was going to miss the Liberal election win by 77-79 seats. But even the crocodile wouldn’t swallow that.”
Coota Bulldog goes 84 ALP, 2 independents, Coalition 64 (11 Nat/53 Lib)
Apologies William for reposting this list but it seems I missed a few people.
Predictions, arranged in order of seats gained by the ALP:
24-25 October 2007
Thommo: Coalition, 80 seats
Nostradmus Coalition: 77-79 seats
LTEP: Coalition, 78 seats
BaztheSpaz: ALP, 77 seats
Yo Ho Ho: ALP, 78 seats
BrissyRod: ALP, 79 seats
Howard Hater: ALP, 79 seats (independent win in Forrest)
Swing Lowe: ALP, 81 seats
Karma Policeman: ALP, 80 seats
Pancho: ALP, 83 seats
JJ: ALP, 83 seats
Coota Bulldog: ALP, 84 seats
Let It End: ALP, 85 seats
Ratsak: ALP: 85 seats
ShowsOn: ALP, 85 seats
Bluebottle: ALP, 85-87 seats
Sinowestie: ALP, 86 seats (independent gain, Howard to lose Bennelong)
Socrates: ALP, 87 seats
RGee: ALP, 87 seats
CL de Footscray: ALP, 89 seats.
Possum: ALP, 89 seats
John Rocket: ALP, 90 seats
Arbie Jay: ALP, 92 seats
Timbo: ALP, 93 seats
Adam: ALP, 95 seats
Mike_F: ALP, 95 seats (independent to gain additional seat)
ruawake: ALP, 100 seats
Lord D: ALP, 100+ seats
Charles: ALP, 105 seats
Don Wigan: ALP, 115-120 seats
Ashley: ALP, 146 seats
I don’t think it’s particularly surprising that people who support the ALP think they will win, with Coalition supporters sure that people won’t turn their backs on the Coalition en masse. Unsurprisingly noone is predicting the Coalition to gain seats this election. We have some predicting a near wipeout for the Coalition, leaving them with 50 or under seats.
It’ll be interesting to see how these predictions pan out over the course of the campaign. I think I’ll do a recheck once a week for the rest of the campaign and measure the changes in peoples’ predictions.
Speaking of this Senate poll and minor parties, I went back to the last Newspoll and noticed one consistency – minor parties are down in both. (BTW, when do we start caling Nationals a minor party?) The Newspoll had Greens on 5% and “Others” down from 9% to 6%. This compares with the (unreachable) Galaxy Senate poll with Greens on 11% but Democrats and Family First on 2% each. So is the vote dropping for the minor parties except Greens? Or is that a State by State thing and not meaningful at this level?
LTEP, You’d fit right into my family – a very long line of Labor pessimists.
Mum was talking to the great Mungo the other day (a family friend and as long as I’ve known him the greatest labor pessimist of them all) he is feeling very bouyant indeed and thinks labor will probably get up this time, he also thinks the JWH is in real trouble in Bennelong.
My Prediction is ALP 87 – 92 seats
“Interviews were conducted using CATI (computer assisted telephone interviewing) with telephone numbers randomly selected from electronic White Pages……”
I’m always unfailingly attentive when being interviewed by a telephone computer. Instantly quit whatever I’m doing at the time and concentrate. Always best to keep things scientific; wouldn’t want to mess with the MoE.
Besides, some phone bots have got real personality and arn’t afraid to project it. It would be Un-Australian to hurt their feelings.
I reserve the right to alter my prediction in the next 4 weeks. I’m thinking 79 seats for Labor might be too conservative an estimate.
LTEP,
Coalition 78 seats.
People seem to be (wilfully) ignoring the topic – the Galaxy results.
They are explicable.
If you treat the Greens as what was once the ALP left, you find their combined vote is 44% up 1.5 from 2004. Coalition down 7. There must be a lot of undistributed ‘don’t knows/won’t say’ (presumably higher in Senate polls than those focusing on government).
Whilst Laborites might argue Rudd’s coattails will drag up its Senate vote, there could also be a lot of tactical voting on the left. Once-were-Labor voters will come back from the Greens in the HoR, desperate for a new government and a clear repudiation of Howardism. But plenty of Labor voters (staunch and Green leaning) think Rudd is too centre-right, and will want distinct and diverse voices in the Senate.
Here’s a game: besides Senator Wong, name one Labor Senator who is articulate, credible or creative. Senate talent is Labor’s achilles’ heel: and this shows on the frontbench.
In short, polarisation in the Reps vote may not guarantee the same in the Senate.
ps You may not know me.
I am one of the many silent but frankly, amused, right-wingers who read this blog for our daily funnies. Bit like I used to read ‘Peanuts’ as a child.
Graeme, I agree with your analysis of the Labor/Green relationship but Arbie Jay is right – there is still 14% missing from William’s quoted figures and I still can’t access this poll at the SMH site. Given Labor’s surging primary vote in other polls, I find this one still looks odd.
Labor won’t get a single vote.
Liberals are perfect and will win 150 seats.
(and Glen will win my heart)
Jim, true, you do need to be right wing to support Howard but you don’t need to be left wing to oppose Howard.
Just decent.
Chris B 24 that was gold
So Jim, cough up your prediction for the 24th and add yourself to LTEP’s list. You seem to understand the real world better than us.
LTEP sign me up for 87/61/2. (That’s ALP 87.)
Faulkner
Jim, I’m one of the lefties who amuses myself reading your postings. You should know that Pushing sh..t up hill in such an earnest fashion has lots of comical implications
The primary school kids are back.
oh my. I thought what was interesing about this election was you can’t even find diehard supporters of the coalition on the internet. And you can find most anything on the internet. This should be a fierce battle fbetween the sides and I can find a handful of coaltion supporters. And now, I just clicked: Tabitha is taking ths piss. So, now I need one less hand to count the Libheads on.
Glen and Tabitha: go and get a room!
This election is starting to smell like 1996. I get the impression the majority have stopped listening to Howard, it doesn’t matter how much extra electoral largesse he dispenses over the next 4 weeks.
LTEP sign me up for my prediction ALP 93
To the people who put up links to ‘The Australian’ – DON’T. The Australian is total crap!
Yes, for whats it worth 97 seats to labor
I’ll go for Labor 97, Liberal 41, National 10, Independent 2.
On the Galaxy poll – they should have been too embarrassed to even publish that nonsense. Labor primary on 33%? Rubbish.
Sorry for posting off topic, but saw this in a magazine recently and thought the political nuts on this site would love this little pearler of a game – http://www.positech.co.uk/democracy/
97 seats for Labor? If that happens on election night, I’ll be extremely drunk, and getting more than my trousers off.
#17 I did say ALP to win 81 a few months back. Wouldn`t mind adding a few to that, but I`ll stick with it.
My 2 cents: ALP 79 seats (would have been 80 except for Cornes in Boothby). Oh and Nick X to get up for the senate.
Bobby Horry, great looking game.
Wonder what button you click when you’re down 58/42 with 4 weeks to go?
The one that says promise to spend one billion dollars in every marginal electorate or the one that says promise to spend two billion dollars in every marginal electorate?
This game’s easy.
With friends like these: http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22644411-5013871,00.html
Should actually think of putting this in an ad to counter the Union domination thing. Happened before hasn’t it?
Apologies for the slightly off-topic post, but I’ve seen a number of questions in other places in this site along the lines of “Alan Kohler said that a Nov/Dec double rate rise is a possibility, why not 50bp in one go?”
The real reason is because Alan (and others) are saying something like:
“The current data is strong enough for the RBA to raise rates in Nov. Also, I believe the data between Nov and Dec will be strong enough to cause the RBA to raise rates again in Dec.”
Contrast this with:
“The current data is strong enough for the RBA to raise rates in Nov, and again in Dec, REGARDLESS of what the data between Nov and Dec says.”
Only if you beileve the second response should you expect the RBA to go 50bp in Nov. Hence the reason that some analysts are now expecting the Nov/Dec double or, at least, the classic “failing to rule it out”.
The main data to come out between Nov and Dec which would affect that subsequent Dec decision by the RBA are all the monthly figures (employment, retail sales, credit use) and the furhter developments in the US. The US appears headed for some nastiness, and the depth of said nastiness will also affect the RBA.
On the topic of credit numbers, there are also credit usage figures out on Oct 31. Depending on the strength of those, the last remaining chance of “no move” in Nov may be wiped out. Last I checked there was about a 15% chance of no move in Nov priced into the market.
Put me down for ALP: 78, LNP: 70, Ind: 2
Perhaps people are scared of giving power to the ALP and going to vote minor parties, but seriously a 2% drop in Senate primary for the ALP compared to a 7% drop from the Coalition. Surely some votes should of swung to the ALP.
LTEP,
OK, put me down for 85 ALP 2 Ind 63 Liberal.
LTEP, I’m happy to own up to predicting a Coalition majority of 8-10. I vetntured for a chance of more after the debate, however, for now, Coalition 83-85 is where I’ll stay.
LTEP @ 26,
You can add me to the list of ALP pessimists. Coalition with 89-90 seats.
#60 There`s pessimism Mathew, and then there`s wholesale lunacy.
I enjoy reading your posts Rates Analyst. Good stuff.
Yeh, doesn’t Matthew’s prediction mean that the Government will GAIN seats?
Btw, I love it how ESJ has just predicted a bigger Labor win than myself – come join us on the forces of good, ESJ!!!
Tabitha – time for school dear. You don’t want to be late even one day in your first year.
ALP: 111, Coalition: 37, 2 Independents.
At least it shows ESJ is a realist.
ALP – 80 seats
For those compiling lists:
ALP 80, LNP 68, Ind 2
On the Senate poll, the ALP will not get a lower vote in 2007 than they did in 2004.
35% in 2004 election, 33% in this poll.
Hung parliament: 74-74-2
#63 Yes Swing Lowe, it does.
89 for ALP. i’ll put money on it.
…but only because I spied a niche in the market.
Alp 86 : Libs: 60 : Ind 4
Prime Minister John Howard, campaigning in Western Australia, tried to put a positive spin on the inflation figures, and declared the Coalition would be re-elected on November 24. “We’re going to win this election. We’re going to keep Australia in safe and steady hands.”
What do you think the response of the Liberals would be if Rudd had said these words? I’m sure Glen could tell us.
What these words tell me though is that even Howard is finding it difficult to believe tthey can win. That he feels he needs to build up the hopes of the troops.
*All Senate polls are worthless.
*My prediction was an ALP gain of 20, which makes 80. I don’t know where 95 comes from.
http://psephos.adam-carr.net/countries/a/australia/commentary.shtml
William could you do a standing page with people’s predictions, for posterity’s sake?
Off to the RW to do some campaigning now. Back tonight.
Boothby candidates spoke at a meeting at Blackwood last night and Nicole Cornes reportedly outshone all the others.
Hi LTEP,
My prediction is an overall swing to the ALP of 4.1% with the result being:
A hung parliament (74 Coalition, 74 ALP, 2 Ind)
Most people vote EXACTLY the same in the House of Reps as they do with the Senate, and this can clearly be seen from the 2004 election results.
If Labor gets 45% of the primary vote, they WILL get around 45% of the senate vote as well.
For me this is a no-brainer as most voters are lazy, don’t care about politics and will always vote for the same party on both forms.
Joe McDonald, the CFMEU’s West Australian deputy secretary is still a member of the ALP, four months after Labor leader Kevin Rudd promised to expel him after he was caught on camera threatening construction bosses.
And yesterday Brian Courtice, the former Labor member for the regional Queensland seat of Hinkler attacked union influence in the ALP at a press conference with Workplace Relations Minister Joe Hockey. Courtice declared: “Kevin Rudd couldn’t go three rounds with Winnie the Pooh, so there’s no way he’s going to be able to stand up to the union bossesâ€.
Ouch!
Gary Bruce: Expect ads (at least online ones) saying a vote for Labor is a vote for a recession. They started down that track yesterday, and they can’t campaign on interest rates this time so they have to campaign on something more fearful.
Yeah Gary, they only say they’re going to win when they’re totally desperate and positive they won’t. He’s now thinking about the mental health of his branch offices rather than the bigger picture..
Misty, I’m firmly of the belief that ecomomics isn’t difficult – economists are.
As to my prediction for the election, try ALP gets 92 seats.
(Though my knowledge of minutae is much more aligned to matters financial than electoral.)
I’m pretty sure the ALP are going to win, but the exact number of seats is a tough guess.
LaborVoter: Actually, I believe there is a trend that while majority of people vote the same way in both houses, a small percentage (Adam can help on this one) tend to vote minor parties for the Senate. I think it’s about 2-3% difference in the HoR to Senate primaries.
The daily walk talk.
http://news.brisbanetimes.com.au/pm-starts-the-day-with-a-musical-walk/20074725-1654.html
Thank god for the unions Jim and if you knew your history you’d be saying the same thing. I’m more worried about the corporate bosses – the ones that your man bends over backwards for…they’re the ones with real power. You obviously aren’t a lower skilled worker on a AWA.
Labor just sured up the bogan vote in Herbert. They’re going to put up $10m for the V8 Super Cars in Townsville. Lindsay still hasn’t been able to convince the PM to put up the cash.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/10/25/2069789.htm
ALP 100
“Labor just sured up the bogan vote in Herbert”
wouldn’t it be a ripper if it turned out that it was bogans wot won it?
Coalition 78
Independents 2
ALP 70
my prediction…
All these predictions…
The Senate poll DOES seem odd (Senate polls being what they are anyway), but I suspect the missing 14% is voters looking for a home. They’re not happy with the Howard, so thats out, the ALP are a bit too me-too, they can’t bring themselves to vote for the Greens yet, leaving only the other minor parties – but they equally don’t want to “waste” their vote, or worse still see it “given away” to the Libs. The Senate might seriously be where people do make up there minds come election day. Maybe that’ll provide some hope for the Democrats after all (or FFP, LDP/ON/UAP etc).
Personally, the pain of ‘98, ‘01 & ‘04 is too great. I fear Howard’s ability to pull a rabbit out of the hat, but then Iemma overcame the Carr legacy (which REALLY took some overcoming!), so maybe Rudd really is in there. I’m hoping for a 80+ seats to ALP (workable margin in the house) and a ALP/Green vote in excess of 54% in the Senate, thus wresting control from the Libs, especially given state variations.
Damn, I wasn’t going to make a prediction…
Jim, you provide an example of another disgruntled former Labor man with an axe to grind. So what? The term ’sour grapes’ comes to mind and with it a strong belief that most people will view it in that light if indeed they view it at all.
Only the rusted ons get hot over this stuff and their vote is locked in anyway.
mike_f: Growing up in Townsville, I know what it’s like up there.. So yes this is what will sure up votes with the bogans. Is it enough to win Herbert? Not sure, but it will most likely add 1-2% to the swing. Watch tomorrow with Howard offering $15-20m for the project.
Peter Martin on the ‘recession under Labor’ scare campaign.
http://petermartin.blogspot.com/2007/10/lets-see-its-about-economic-credibility.html
Put me down for ALP 88, my lucky number. I think on the day, there will be enough scaredy cats, who decide late to stay with the Libs, to keep the Labor number down.
Put me down for 82 ALP/3 Ind/65 Coalition. I get the feeling right now that there’s going to be a swing, and once we get closer to the day and it really looks like the Libs are gone, people will be bolting for the liferafts.
I wonder when people like Ruddock, Downer, Costello &c will get asked “will you promise to stay a full term if the ALP wins?”
I’m down for 95 ALP seats.
And that’s me being conservative.
I want a number no-one has taken yet
Barbara try 150.
Swing Lowe,
As Anakin said to Luke:
“It is too late for me my son”
Prediction for HoR ALP 92 seats
Two Amanda Vanstones?
Malcolm is at it again, giving $200,000 to the poor, poor people of St.Ives, on top of $10million to a poor, poor relative of Rupert Murdoch!
What’s going on? Isn’t our country in caretaker mode – what exactly does that mean?
http://www.smh.com.au/news/federalelection2007news/minister-hands-over-200000/2007/10/24/1192941153906.html
Lose the Election Please put me down for:
Coalition 77 seats
Check this out its really funny!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ptccZze7VxQ&eurl
someone help me: I was told a good local candidate is worth a certain percentage. Was it 2%? This could have a bearing on things.
Lose the Election Please put me down for:
Coalition 77 seats
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ptccZze7VxQ&eurl
Brilliant John i was looking for this they played it on 7:30 Report last night classic stuff!
LTEP for the predictions
(anyone game to predict how the Nats and Libs will go individually?)
ALP 85
Lib/Nat 63
Indi 2
Graeme (33)
If you’re looking for articulate ALP senators, how about John Faulkner?
Kate Lundy isn’t too bad either.
LTEP – My prediction: ALP 78, LNP 70, Ind 2
There are some other good political YouTube links – here’s the Top 10 Moments in Australian Politics:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kMq0tzfmc3Y&eurl
There’s gotta come a time when the msm actually whip up one of those campaigns of frenzy and indignation re the pork. We’ve got another 4 weeks to go for gods sake. The mind boggles at whats gonna be promised by the end of the campaign. Poor Kevs gonna be cleaning up for years after this….
Ok, new competition kids, email me with the seats you think will change hands at the election, and I will keep a spreadsheet of the details. If you don’t mention a particular electorate, I assume you predict the status quo for that electorate. Winner is the one who most correctly predicts the changing seats, and wins bragging rights !
For this purpose, I have included Macquarie as an ALP seat, and Parramatta as a LIB seat. Kennedy and New England are included as Independent seats, but Calare is included as a national seat. Basically its the classification as per Anthony’s ABC election page.
I decided on email as it will save William’s bandwidth.
matthew.sykes “at symbol” flinders.edu.au
“34
Jim Says:
October 25th, 2007 at 8:14 am
ps You may not know me.
I am one of the many silent but frankly, amused, right-wingers who read this blog for our daily funnies. Bit like I used to read ‘Peanuts’ as a child.”
Word on the strip, Silent Jim, says that many Lucy Van Pelt fans around here will be doing their darndest to help you touch base with your inner political masochist. Blogs like this abound with opportunistic schadenfreudists.
I’m a political novice as far as the Senate is concerned so maybe the more enlightened here will be able to answer a couple questions.
1.Will the major parties openly campaign for the Senate?
The Greens openly do so but maybe I’m not looking in the right places as I haven’t seen any ALP or Lib Senate pamphlets as such.
2.Do the majors hope/think people will follow the HTV cards on election day.?
I never take a HTV anyway as I know who I’m going to vote for in the HoR and I vote Green in the Senate.
3.Will the Coalition maintain its majority or will Ind or the Greens hold the BOP.?
er…10million funding for rain-making – maybe it’s the scientologists who have been getting at malcolm, not EB.
#Federal Election Results PDF 1949-2004
http://www.aph.gov.au/library/pubs/RB/2004-05/05rb11.pdf
ALP 91
LP/N 56
others 3
Last night I donated $30 to this site and $100 to the ALP. I encourage all Labor supporters on this blog to donate money to the ALP. Just visit the main page at:
http://www.alp.org.au
and click “donate”.
In a way I hope the Galaxy senate figures are right – although common sense tells me they probably aren’t. An obstructive opposition blocking the abolition of the work choices legislation would be just what Kevin Rudd needed to take the long handle to the senate and give it a good clean out.
Roll on the double dissolution.
For a laugh, check out…
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ptccZze7VxQ&eurl
… if you haven’t already
Thanks John of Melbourne and Sean for the youtube link about Rudd.
What a pisser.
The missing %ge in this poll would be people who haven’t focused on the Senate.
Labor has long polled well under its Rep vote in the Senate.
This poll has Libs down 7, Labor down 2, with 14% either for others/don’t know. Factor much of that 14% on a similar ratio to the committed votes in the poll, and add Greens, Dems and ALP as a combined ‘left’ vote and the results are on a par with Galaxy’s recent Reps poll. Probably a point or two better allowing for some FF/indep/micro prefs to Labor.
Seems to be a real lull in political advertising on TV here in Adelaide. Would be interested to know what’s going on in other parts of the country.
This one from the ABC was so good that they wrote it twice.
http://abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/10/25/2069884.htm?section=justin
That’s it, the white flag is flying, held aloft by Greg Sheridan in today’s GG:
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22642864-7583,00.html
He sprays everyone that ever disagreed with the white armband view of history, and then declares that Howard has lost the Culture War. Top of the list of fifth columnists is the ABC (of course!), but he doesn’t stop there, he even takes a swipe at Tim Flannery.
When the rightwing commentariat starts burying Howard, even before the election, you just know you’re in for a fun show.
No TV advertising in Melbourne either Triffid…looks like the major parties are saving their money for the last 2 weeks of the campaign…
LTEP
ALP: 88. Howard loses Bennelong.
Already have a few entries for the seat-by-seat prediction competition …
See post #112 for details …
Triffid,
Have not seen any ads on Newcastle TV for the past 3 nights. Not sure why. Glen may be right, a big assault could be planned soon.
Still waiting for the anti-nuclear ads. Will play well in Hunter and Paterson.
Have given Matthew my seat-by-seat tips by email see post #112. Looking forward to seeing everyone’s tips on the spreadsheet.
On the subject of articulate Labor senators:
- Penny Wong
- John Faulkner
- Trish Crossin
- Claire Moore
- Kate Lundy
- Glenn Sterle
Personally, I think their senators are better than their members.
My prediction:
The way the campaign is going, Labor will win at least 90 seats.
I’ll be pessimistic.
Coalition 76. Turnbull to win Wentworth by 11 votes.
Didn’t Faulkner do the job of preparing Rudd for the debate? I’d suggest he did that quite well too.
Matt D: 11 votes would probably mean a by-election do to a successful challenge over voting irregularities (ala the 95 QLD election and the Mundingburra electorate. I think Ken Davies won by 8 votes)
I’m in for:
ALP: 85
Ind: 3
Coalition: 62
Greg Sheridan, Foreign editor | October 25, 2007 – “THIS election campaign is far from over and John Howard could yet win. But it’s not likely. The most likely outcome is a substantial victory for Kevin Rudd.” Yep, they’re lining up now. Henderson and Lebovich will go to the election still believing the Libs have got it in the bag.
chrispydog @ 124
I’d agree that the Sheridan article is one of the funniest articles i’ve ever read. There were several laugh-out-loud moments (such as “the ABC worldview is stronger than ever” WTF does that even mean?). Poor Greg seems upset that the majority of academics disagree with his interpretation of Australian History. No mention of the fact that this may be because he’s wrong, rather than the fact that “it’s impossible to govern against elite opinion”….
I recommend it highly to anyone feeling a bit down today.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22642864-7583,00.html
Yes, Chrispy Dog @124. It is an extraordinary article. I agree we are in for a fun show. Bolt vs. Henderson and Sheridan vs. civilisation.
Gary Bruce @ 135
Not only is it amazing how many of the rusted on Liberals are calling it for Rudd, it’s even more amazing when Sheridan starts attacking Howard for losing the culture wars!
This is the first time I’ve seen this in print, and no doubt we’ll be hearing a lot more of it after the battle when the historians start picking over the carcass of the Liberal party, but this is a very significant first draft of this argument.
Oddly enough, he seems to be saying that Howard is losing because he didn’t hobble the ABC!
When do these guys ever wake up? It’s not an ‘elite’ position to think that Howard has poisoned much public debate and we want to remove ourselves from the rectum of GWBush. Watching this meltdown in the GG is truly fascinating.
My tip for the “Real Melbourne Cup” (Nov 24). Coalition 62; Labor 83; Ind 5.
D’oh. My rant went straight into moderation. How does it know when I’m ranting?
On articulate ALP senators – Ursula Stephens
When will the next Nielsen Poll be? Monday?
Can someone kick out that fat ass Kim Carr im sure the ALP can find someone better to fill his well worn seat in the Senate…i am so seriously this guy puts Hockey to shame…
Glen honey, if you don’t like Mr. Carr (ALP Senator), join the party and vote against him in their Senate Preselection.
Seat Predictions:
Labor to gain:
Parramatta
Lindsay
Dobell
Eden Monaro
Bennelong
Wentworth
Page
Hughes(my bolter)
Bass
Braddon
Solomon
Stirling
Hasluck
Kingston
Wakefield
Makin
Sturt(another bolter)
La Trobe
Corrangamite
Goldstein(absolute bolter)
Macmillan
Bonner
Moreton
Blair
Leichardt
Herbert
Ryan
HH u realize that the Coalition would win half of those seats back in the next federal election if not all…
Predictions recorded, Howard Hater.
When I see Penny Wong and John Faulkner on tv I want to do an Elvis and shoot the TV. Irritation factor SPF1000!
What makes you believe that Glen? Just put yourself in some objective shoes for once… imagine not everyone loves the Liberal Party… and think again.
John Laws today attacked Alan Jones for bias, syaing if he is going to bring up the 17.5% rate under Keating he shouldve also mentioned the 22% when Howard was Treasurer, amazing how the worm has turned against Howard. Another media supporter deserting the sinking ship?
I don’t care much about individual seats, but I will say that the blue-ribbon urban Lib heartland seats could well have shock results. Thus Higgins, Goldstein and Kooyong in Melb could all be in danger, as could Nth Sydney, Wentworth, Berowra and Bennelong in Sydney. Ryan could well be a definite gain for Labor. Mayo in SA is another potential pick-up (good riddance to bad rubbish, Alexander).
AM house interest rates were at 13%!
My bet ls Labor 83, Independents 2, coalition 65.
My dream is Labor 149 with Wilson Tuckey as leader of the Liberal party.
I live in North Sydney and the response to the ALP camapign there has been phenomenal.
The campaign workers who’ve been doing this for years say the reaction is unbelievable.
Look at the pork Hockey’s announcing (still waiting for that RNS annoncement too)
If the ALP win government I suspect the more normal groupings will re-assert at the next election (wet libs, etc). If they don’t, we’ll need a new conservative party, because the Libs will be finished.
.
.
How about Liberals= ZERO seats?
By around this time last week we’d had the leak that Morgan would show a significant move back to the Coalition.
If we haven’t heard anything by the end of the day we can assume no change. If Galaxy is due tomorrow, we’ll know the result tonight if its good for the Coalition.
South Australia’s Industrial Relations Commission slams Govt claims work choices generates jobs and productivity as totally false;
http://www.news.com.au/business/story/0,23636,22645955-31037,00.html
Another coalition ideological myth is unravelling.
ALP = Australian Liberal Party
Yup watch for the blue ribbon bolters for sure
Its all topsy turvy
Warringah to be a shock to close to call
and Elvis to be spotted in Manly
Labor encourages and supports identity fraud (Tabitha 144)
Liberal encourages strong and independent women like me
I looked at the portlanbet website this morning and counted that they now have Labor winning 14 coalition seats including Parramatta, but not counting Macquarie as a Labor gian. This is down from 19 when I checked soon before the election was called. The overall odds still overwhelmingly favour a Labor win though. However, Labor gaining 14 seats would most likely result in a hung parliament. I note that portlandbet does not appear to take bets on this particular outcome, only a win by one side or the other. Interesting…
I’ve got that one already. Mine was 147 Labor + 3 independents.
I think it’s showing up in the list as 146 after I made a joke that Nicole Cornes wouldn’t win her seat after reports break that she is planning to vote for Howard ‘because he will keep interest rates at record lows’.
Greg Sheridan lives in a parallel universe.
So, it would appear, does Tabitha.
and Ashley! hehehe
146…yeesh
Greg Sheridan is always a bit flaky, and quite prone to producing the odd article that appears to have been written after a hard night out with Ben Cousins.
The Conservative press has indeed been considerably edgy though. You can compare this to the last election where they all solidly closed ranks behind Howard to the point where any indication of non-partisanship was completely non existent and where the only paper to editorialise in favour of the ALP was the Canberra Times.
(by the way, does anyone have a copy of that particular editorial – it was heart warming in its defiance).
I can only hope that this defeatist tone will continue for rest of the campaign. Last week it was a different story with Howard’s tax package and those two polls (Galaxy and Nielson) yet this week the smell of death hanging over the government has returned with a vengeance.
From my own point of view, it seems like the more the electorate sees of Howard, the more they want him gone. He does have the look of a dead man walking.
And I can’t see there being too many tears of sorry should he lose. It will be the end of the most cynical, mean spirited, divisive and spin doctored Government this country has ever had.
Politics of Inflated Expectations
http://www.newmatilda.com/election07/index.php/2007/10/25/the-politics-of-inflated-expectations/
Boll # 61 and Swing Lowe # 63.
What I’m saying is that Labor will probably lose both Cowan and Swan, and have trouble holding on to Brand, with the Bomber retiring. There’s 3 seats right there, just in WA. If Labor picks up any seats in WA, it will be a miracle – the polls actually have the Libs in front 56-44 on average, with virtually no swing, or even a swing TO the Libs.
Let’s look at the other states – Macquarie and Parramatta will probably swap hands, going home to their own parties (see the 2007 guide for details) in NSW. Turnbull’s margin in Wentworth is artificially deflated – he’ll have no trouble holding on to his own seat. Labor may, however pick up Lindsay, and (if they’re lucky) Eden-Monaro – however, the Libs are sparing no pork in the bellwether. Despite a desire to see the Rodent gone, I am not giving spit for Maxine’s much-touted chances in Bennelong. If the ALP is lucky, they’ll also fetch Dobell.
Labor may very well lose Bendigo in Victoria, not helped by the abysmal performance of the Brumby Government. Corcoran in Isaacs lost votes in 2004 despite a highly favourable redistribution, and her performance will be interesting this time around. Having trouble seeing Victorian seats that the ALP can pick up – they’ve already got 20 of 39. Such ALP seats as don’t go backwards will become much safer, however.
In SA, Labor can make some gains to offset these – Kingston and Makin will probably fall to Labor. Despite the ALP’s stupidity in choosing yet ANOTHER left-wing union affiliate to run in Wakefield, they may gain that seat as well. However, unless Georganas stops being invisible in Hindmarsh, he’ll lose it to the Libs. I’ve written off Boothby thanks to the utter stupidity of the ALP’s “star candidate” Cornes.
ALP to pick up Braddon and possibly Bass in Tas. We all know why.
Not much hope for the ALP in Qld – I’ll give them Bonner, Moreton, Blair and Herbert. Labor’s chances are much overrated in Flynn – although they might get lucky.
Total – Worst-case – ALP loses 7 to the Coalition (Swan, Cowan, Brand, Bendigo, Macquarie, Isaacs and Hindmarsh) and picks up 9 from the Coalition (Paramatta, Lindsay, Kingston, Makin, Braddon, Bonner, Moreton, Blair and Herbert), for a net total of 85 Coalition. You were right after all, guys – 89 L/NP was too much to give them after all.
Best-case – ALP loses 2 to the Coalition (Swan and Cowan – those votes are fairly locked-in), and picks up 14 from the Coalition (Parramatta, Lindsay, Eden-Monaro, Dobell, Kingston, Makin, Wakefield, Braddon, Bass and the five Qld seats.) This would deliver a total of 75 L/NP, 73 ALP and 2 independants (I’m giving Calare to the ALP). L/NP appoints an Independant Speaker, and has a floor majority.
The Coalition is just too firmly cemented into power (with 87 seats) to be kicked out at one election, barring a 1996-style swing, which I don’t see on the cards, for four reasons.
1. This is NOT the recession we had to have (yes, I know that we had to have it and that it did us good, but that phrase did Keating no good at all). People do NOT (shown time and again historically) kick governments out in good times, which for many people these are. It doesn’t happen.
2. There has been no 1993-style warning signal. This election should be it, paving the way for 2010.
3. Howard’s retiring after the election anyway, so wasting your time attacking him will generate no return. This also reduces the “it’s time” factor, although it doesn’t eliminate it altogether.
4. Even Keating only had 80 seats going into 1996. You have to go back to 1990 to see the last government with this size majority (Hawke had 86 seats going in, and lost 8 of them, just barely holding on).
Therefore, my final prediction – definite L/NP win (I’ve put $20 on it elsewhere), with size varying from 75 to 85 seats. I’ll pick 78 as my number – the worst-case for ALP was VERY worst-case.
Michael, the ALP winning 74 seats would likely be enough for them to form government. If they achieved the largest percentage of the primary Windsor would back them, Labor would appoint Katter speaker and have their majority.
To win I think the Coalition needs to hold the ALP back to 73 seats.
85 ALP for me
will look like heading for 90, then WA results will come in, narrowing the gap for the blue(r) team.
Some people are saying 3 Independents (Lefty E) and some even 5 (Mark). Who are these extra independents?
By the way, I live in Goldstein and the chance of it suddenly changing colours and going Labor is minimal, to say the least. There are a number of traditionally pro-Labor middle income suburbs but that is offset by all the blue ribbon Liberal patches, a la Brighton and Sandringham.
LOL, Costello accused of ‘voodoo economics’
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/10/25/2069884.htm?site=elections/federal/2007
kevin the rock star
KEVIN Rudd neither looks nor acts like a rock star.
Yesterday, however, the Labor leader got the full treatment from a surging mob of teenagers at a Melbourne high school.
His tour of Eumemmerring College, in sunburnt Hallam, seemed to define the momentum that has enveloped the Opposition campaign.
“We want Rudd, we want Rudd, we want Rudd,” the group screamed during mid-morning recess
http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,22643840-2862,00.html
this is sounding like more and more like 1972 again
I heard an inteview with a guy from GetUp and even he didn’t sound like he believed the poll. The fact is that Labor cannot win control of the Senate this electon anyway so the only question is can the Coalition retain control? According to these figures they probably can but it’s still difficult to believe these numbers.
erm..westpoll has had labor losing brand since it was created.
it never has. It wont this time either.
its all stirling, hasluck, cowan and swan
For some reason westpoll does not survey swan…
In my parallel universe the Libs are routed and Tabitha becomes Hon. Leader of the Opposition (with Glen as deputy). Her opening address to parliament goes something like this:
Labor is for losers.
Liberal is for winners.
Eumemmerring College……..most of these kids wont be able to vote in the future due to the new electoral laws, they will be in jail.
“When I see Penny Wong and John Faulkner on tv I want to do an Elvis and shoot the TV. Irritation factor SPF1000!”
Gee – thats exactly what I feel when I see any of the Howard Cabinet on TV.
Michael: The betting agencies seem to be more conservative with individual seats. This can be seen as a few things, power of incumbency as well as the need to find ways to win money against possible huge losses of the overall bet. I know someone said before that it could be a 4-5 seat margin. This is why I’ve gone for a small victory for the ALP – just an 18 seat gain like they got in 98 (they lost in 98 but this time it will be enough to win).
Matt Cole, the problem with your argument is that its not at all supported by the polls.
There’s no indication Brand will fall, although I’m certain the Coalition will win Cowan. They will not win Swan, but will retain Stirling and Hasluck.
You say Hindmarsh will go back to the Liberal party, ignoring the poll giving them a 60-40 lead over the Liberal Party just earlier this week.
Everything else in your post is at least arguable, if not supported by polling or the actions of the government.
Think to yourself, if the Liberal Party was really unconcered about their electoral chances would they be acting the way they are? Talking about Australia going into recession should Labor win is a big thing to say, firing your tax policy off on the first day of the campaign is a big thing to do. Waiting this late in the year to hold an election is a big thing to do.
We also have reports that the Liberal Party’s internal polling is showing a 10.6% swing since the last election, albeit in surprising places.
Why do you think that even Liberal Party supporters here aren’t predicting the size of Coalition victory that you are?
Blacklight # 173
I don’t refer to Westpoll anymore, ever since they had Jaye Radisch losing Swan Hills 32-52 in the 2005 state election, and she picked up to 54/46, gaining 14% on her primary vote when the overall result was fairly neutral.
James # 171
I don’t doubt it. But high school students are too young to vote, and adults are too sceptical of any politician (after 11 years of Howard, who wouldn’t be?) to trust anyone based on the fact that he looks like a nice guy and has some charisma. I personally think that a Rudd government would be Australia’s easiest road out of the grey depression of the Howard years – it just isn’t going to happen, unfortunately. Meh – I’m starting to think that I’m just someone who’s had his hopes dashed too many times.
Hate to be pedantic, Jim, but if they’re silent, how do you know they’re there, and that they are “many” in number?
Matthew Cole, your claim regarding Hindmarsh being under threat is somewhat laughable. The swing is on in Hindmarsh big time. The Liberal candidate Rita Bouras is woeful, and the Advertiser poll has around a 10% swing on the cards. The chances of the Liberals winning back Hindmarsh is close to zero. The Rann revolution in South Australia coupled with a dysfunctional state liberal party has the Liberals dead in the water here.
LTEP are there any numbers regarding the swing that happened when Mr. Bruce back in the day lost government and his seat?
“Matt Cole [#166], the problem with your argument is that its not at all supported by the polls.
There’s no indication Brand will fall, although I’m certain the Coalition will win Cowan. They will not win Swan, but will retain Stirling and Hasluck.”
Yet, the Westpoll has Labor losing Stirling and Hasluck and quite convincingly.
I think Matthew’s is a pretty sound analysis.
Did anybody see Lateline last night? In my opinion Coona creamed Albanese
Matthew Cole @161
That analysis makes Christopher Pearson look well informed. You can’t even get facts right. The Labor candidate inWakefield worked for the SDA. Since when did they EVER get classed as left wing. And Georganas in Hindmarsh? Didn’t you read the poll on Wednesday?
Or, is the Westpoll really that unrealiable?
#159 Tabitha
“Liberal encourages strong and independent women like me”
Tabitha compare JWH’S wife to KR’S wife, if this is your view you should then vote Labour
166 MC: In your SA analysis you’ve got Georganas wrong. He’s killing Bouras, confirmed by the quite respectable Tiser poll published yesterday. It’s in the bag.
Completely right about Cornes though. Women hate her. Stupid mistake by the ALP, should have had Handshin in Boothby (Surely she could have moved:))
Now I retract my comments and retreat behind Antony.
John @152, you know very well that Fraser fixed mortgage rates at 13%. I find lies and omissions from any side deplorable.
Well the Libs just can’t take a trick these days. Even good scare campaigns can’t get any traction.
http://abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/10/25/2070034.htm
WA polls show on average about 50-50 TPP
This is a swing of 5% to the ALP.
This is enough to make Brand very safe Labor, and for them to easily hold Swan.
Recent local Westpolls have said that Cowan won’t be so easy to hold
and that Hasluck and Stirling may be harder to pick up than the state-wide swing would suggest.
Canning, Kalgoorlie and Forrest are all conceivable Lib losses due to local factors coupled with a swing which may be bigger than 5% out of the fiercely fought marginals.
So WA will be somewhere between a 1 coalition gain to a 6 ALP gain.
Most likely 2 gains to ALP.
John of Melbourne, in the 1929 election, Stanley Bruce lost his seat in an election seeing a swing of 5.2% away from them (4.2% to the ALP) and a loss of 15 seats, giving a 75 seat Parliament.
This resulted in an ALP/Coalition split of 46/24.
It’s almost incongruous to today though (different voting systems, candidates being elected unopposed etc.) In fact it may even be unconstitutional now for candidates to be elected unopposed (not that it would happen).
my prediction Labor – 80, Howard to lose Bennelong
I should correct my first paragraph to say “out of a 75 seat parliament”.
How about the rumor Cadman may run as an Independant in Mitchell
IS Landeryou smoking wacky weed again?
Jim is just another name for the one person who posts as Glen, Tabitha and Nostradamus.
He also has dozens of other names which he has never used.
Thus he knows they exist.
Matt Cole, I live in Macquarie and to say that it will go to the Coalition is a bit of a stretch. I must say, there has been not a whole lot of activity on the TV with ads or campaigning around the place. The main people advertising on the TV here are the Nationals and they aren’t even running in this electorate. This makes me wonder what the go is with the campaign funding. If the Liberals were actually making a serious go of it here they would surely do more to support Kerry (who has all the charisma of a wet lettuce leaf).
ALP 86 Ind 2 Coalition 62
Cheers LTEP
My 40 seats the ALP win gain
Cowper
Wide Bay
McEwen
Paterson
Sturt
Forde
La Trobe
Solomon
Page
Fisher
Bass
Corangamite
McMillan
Deakin
Dobell
Ryan
Boothby
Leichhardt
Dawson
Bennelong
Braddon
Stirling
Bowman
Dickson
Eden-Monaro
Hasluck
Lindsay
Hinkler
Wentworth
Flynn
Petrie
Longman
Parramatta
Herbert
Makin
Blair
Wakefield
Kingston
Moreton
Bonner
Paladin @ 188,
If Hanshin didn’t run in Sturt, the ALP would have fixed her up in a more winnable marginal seat (like Wakefield or Makin). They want her in parliament and wouldn’t risk her as a carpet-bagger in a seat like Boothby.
That said, if Hanshin doesn’t win in Sturt (and I think she’s still got a decent chance there), she’ll probably get dropped into a safe seat next election or given a safe spot on the ALP senate ticket next time around.
The rout is on!
Continued good results in the polls for Labor have the conservative press finally seeing the light.
The are beginning the hunt for someone to blame – and it’s still four weeks to election night.
If Labor’s lead continues in upcoming polls, or gets better, and the nerves and anger fester further in the conservative media, then the rot will really begin to set in.
It will spread among all conservative commentators, then to the rest of the commentariat before spilling over to the community at large.
This could easily lead to a rout that none here have seen before, with the potential for Labor to achieve up to 120 seats or more.
The saving grace for some Libs in the very safe seats is that knowing this, some of the doctor’s wives will return to the fold to save some of their number – just.
Previous high water marks in once-safe conservative seats will be decimated. The losers will come from anywhere and everywhere as the LNP supporters vent their fury.
Years of infighting and division will follow, with Labor holding on to power through the boom and bust years, with a minimum of 12 years in power for Rudd and his successor, Greg Combet.
So says Lionel.
Lose The Election Please: if the other parties maintain their containment policy against the “radical extremist” Greens and put them last on their how-to-vote cards (as they did unanimously in 2004, if I recall correctly), Family First may end up taking a Senate seat that they would otherwise have gotten.
I think you should remove Nostradamus from the Coalition supporters group, I know for a fact that he is a Labor boy underneath.
hey whoever’s being the listmaster, change my numbers: I just emailed off my predictrions and I realised the number I pick is 91-56-3 to the ALP.
New photo of Howard, showing signs of pressure?:
http://members.ozemail.com.au/~imcfadyen/mediaarts/arthur1.jpg
So – what do people think tomorrow’s AC Nielsen is going to be (assuming it comes out tomorrow)?
I’m predicting 55/45 – a 1 point move back to ALP.
What is with the majority of journalists in Australia?
I cannot understand how anyone with any integrity can simply repeat baldface lies made by politicians, without comment or query.
They let the Coalitions interest rate scare pass largely unhindered in 2004. In fact they positively aided the Coalition by helping to spread the deceit, even though they must have known it wasn’t true. Sure, there were some journalists who pointed out it was bullsh*t, but they were few and far between.
How can it be that our democracy is so corrupted that the people who should be informing the public are instead dis-informing them? And in the meantime they stand meekly behind the shield of “journalistic impartiality” saying that isn’t there role to judge, and they are merely informing people of what politicians have said. So the more important the figure (eg. the PM) and the more outrageous the assertion, the more airtime it seems to get.
Now in 2007 we have the Treasurer and PM lying to the public with straight faces, claiming that electing Labor will bring on a recession. This should be scandalous, and the media should be hanging them out to dry. But mostly all we are hearing is “Labor says the Coalition has broken its promise on interest rates, and the Coalition says there will be a recession under Labor”. Well, that’s nice and balanced — but hello, spot which one of them true and which is not.
I don’t believe that Howard and Costello will get away with it this time. There aren’t enough mugs out there in voter land. But they shouldn’t have been allowed to get away with it in 2004. And this sort of bullsh*t should not even be entertained by the media in 2007.
Frankly I think it’s disgraceful. On matters where one party or another is lying outrageously the media should have some integrity and expose the fallacy. They don’t even have to comment on it directly… just give more airtime to political or economic commentators who have some credibility.
[Rant ends].
Thanks for the insight, #192.
ALP 98. It sounds over the top, but I think we’re looking at a Coalition demolition of near unprecedented scale here.
Howard Hater:
“Predicted labor gainsâ€
“Corrangamiteâ€
I live in this electorate and it wont fall to labor.
The mains reason being labor,
Labor ran a very successful negative ad campaign against the local candidate Mr Stewart McArthur last election, for supposal road funding abuse. This pissed off a lot of local people in the country area of this electorate who have waited a long time for there roads to be fixed. This would have increased labors vote last election.
The other main reason is labor candidate they have chosen Darren cheeseman a Union delegate from ballarat. This will annoy a lot of people, especially when they had a very strong candidate Peter Mc Millian Ex-geelong mayor, and was very well known.
A lot of people don’t have the highest regard for Mr Mc Athur in this electorate but the new candidate from laobr isn’t appealing at all.
If labor ran the Ex-mayor I would say they would have a very strong chance but not anymore. Cheeseman is coming across as a goof in the local paper.
56.5-43.5 2PP
48-40 primary
the 2PP will swerve drunkley around, but the primary vote between now and 24/11 will remain ferpectly shtable.
I know this is off topic but should the 4 Billion dollar handout to pensioners be called “The Breathing Bonus”. They don’t seem to have to do much else to get a payment of some description these days.
SL #205 I would like to see 53 -47. However, I think it will be the same. Labors primary vote is proving hard to shift. Last time coalition gains came from people retreating form minor parties.
I think the Coalition Health and Housing Policies will either get them back in or resign them to the Wilderness for 3 years.
3 years I say because if I were the coalition I would have tv ads of sick people and dying kids saying Mr Rudd you told me the buck stops with you but I’m no beter off then I was 3 years ago
LTEP # 178:
Regarding W.A., you will note that only my worst-case estimate has Labor losing Brand. Regarding Swan, Labor is on the nose there and it probably WILL change hands, if only because the Libs haven’t royally stuffed up their choice of candidate this time around.
Regarding Hindmarsh, I sit corrected – haven’t kept up with the Adelaide news. Could Paladin give me a link to the poll he saw?
Let’s look at other seats I mentioned:
VICTORIA
Bendigo – fair enough. However, I’d wager that the nurses’ pay dispute (and the ready-made wedge for federal Labor contained therein) hasn’t impacted the polls yet.
Isaacs – ditto.
SA
I don’t think we can disagree there – unless you can point out other likely ALP gains? Boothby was a lost cause the moment Cornes opened her mouth on camera.
Tas – ditto – they can only get all 5 seats, after all
Qld
Can you please point out other Labor gains? All remaining L/NP seats are on 9% plus from 2004 – that’s too much to ask, especially given the council amalgamations issue across Qld making the Coalition’s job easier.
NSW – here it gets much trickier.
Bennelong – most polling has the two nose-to-nose, and the incumbent usually picks up a surge on polling day.
Wentworth – Turnbull is just the sort of “damp” (not quite dry or wet) Liberal that Wentworth’s small-l liberal population can vote for. His margin was greatly undercut by the King effect last time round.
Sorry, but I just can’t find any other seats that I can give to Labor that I haven’t already credited to their best-case scenario.
Dr Good #192
If you think that Labor can win Canning or Kalgoorlie, I want to know two things:
1 – What are you on?
2 – How do I get some? It would make my life far more enjoyable than at present.
Even the most starry-eyed optimists in the ALP aren’t talking seriously about gaining either seat.
ND # 198
I only put Macquarie as a Lib gain in a worst-case scenario.
Anthony Green # 185
Watch the personal attacks, please – don’t compare me to Pearson.
Also, since when was any union (with the greatest of respect to their many achievements) interested in the right wing of politics? Not that I blame them – I’m something of a leftie myself (centre-left actually), but it appears to be deeply unfashionable in today’s electorate, and will hence damage Champion’s campaign. Regarding Hindmarsh, please note my retraction above.
Re Ashley’s rant (209)
The question for the press to ask is,
If Labor can so easily cause Australia to fall into a recession, then what explanation do you have for the Australian people as to why you, who claim to be the best economic managers this country has ever seen, have left Australia’s economy in such a precarious position?
The 1929 swing is difficult to measure exactly because so many safe Labor seats were uncontested but there were ’safe’ Coalition seats that fell on +10% swings in the suburbs. The one ray of hope for the Liberals from the seat polls is that some of the swing will be wasted making Labor’s narrow 2004 victories into safe seats, Hindmarsh, Adelaide etc.
The Chief Economist of the MacQuaria bank told the British Australia Chamber of Commerce that the government had wasted every dollar of its surpluses on pork barrelling etc…
This story was in news ltd stories a week or so ago. Damned if I can find it now. Anyone else run across it?
Mathew Cole @166
You say it will be interesting to see how Corcoran performs in Isaacs this time round.
It would be not only interesting, but astounding to see any significant performance by Corcoran at all in Isaacs this time round, given that she lost the preselection.
My dad always reckoned the Tailors union was very conservative. But I stand to be corrected.
Costello: ” Because everything I have done has been for short term benefit only. Nothing we’ve done will help in the long term.”
Matt Cole, Advertiser Hindmarsh poll from 24/10/2007:
http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,22638480-5006301,00.html
Also see the earlier thread on pollbludger.
Matt Sykes # 223 – thanks.
J-D # 220 – Oops! Must…update…information……. :blush:
Kina,
His name is Rory Robertson, if that helps, but I can’t find it.
The expression ‘left-wing union’, to my mind, implies a union which is to the left as compared to other unions. That’s the way I normally see it used. It’s common, in my experience, to see the expression ‘right-wing union’, meaning a union which is to the right as compared to other unions. And the SDA is definitely one of those.
Mathew Cole
The majority of Queenslanders support local council amalgamations. Don’t get sucked in by a very vocal minority.
Paul K (222)
Exactly!
Since we’re talking Senate how about a prediction there?
Returning Senate reads Coalition 19, Labor 14, Greens 2, FF 1.
The territories will return 1 each for Labor/Coalition
I’ll say NSW, Tas and Vic will go Coalition 2, Labor 3, Greens 1,
SA to go Coalition 2, Labor 3, Mr X 1
WA to go Coalition 3, Labor 2, Greens 1
Qld to go 3/3
So the new senate would be something around Coalition 35, Labor 31, Greens 6 and others 2. That would allow Labor to get through legislation the Coalition tried to block with Green support.
Matt Cole, it won’t matter a damn what happens in WA. The Libs are going to get absolutely slaughtered on the eastern seaboard. NSW and Vic are at around 59-41 for Labor, that’s a HUGE swing, and they’ll lose plenty more in Qld and SA.
Matthew Cole: you’re being way too pessimistic !
There seems to be such an air of desperation and pessimism emanating out of the Liberal camp that the MSM is finally starting to reflect.
Sure, the Liberals might be returned narrowly, one can never rule out the possibility. And yes, some of us might be getting too carried away with dreams of Labor electoral landslides.
Maybe it’s just a feeling I’ve got this time, something that wasn’t there in 2004, 2001, 1998 and 1996.
Most of us after all are only amateur psephologists and punters: maybe we’ll all be proved wrong on November 24?
Two of Australia’s biggest banks have politely told Treasurer Peter Costello to butt out of their business, saying decisions on how to set mortgage rates are theirs alone.
http://abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/10/25/2070113.htm?section=justin
Speaking of predictions, I would love to hear William’s…
Regarding the myth of government ecoomic genius, here are a few interest rates around the world now for comparison:
(from http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/interest-rates-table/)
Major Central Banks Overview
Central Bank Next Meeting Last Change Current Interest Rate
Bank of Canada Dec 04 2007 Jul 10 2007 4.5%
Bank of England Nov 08 2007 Jul 05 2007 5.75%
Bank of Japan Nov 13 2007 Feb 21 2007 0.5%
European Central Bank Nov 08 2007 Jun 06 2007 4%
Federal Reserve Oct 31 2007 Sep 18 2007 4.75%
Swiss National Bank Dec 13 2007 Sep 13 2007 2.75%
Reserve Bank of Australia Nov 06 2007 Aug 07 2007 6.5%
So we are “leader” of the free world in high interest rates. From the same source India (7.75%) and China (7.02%) are slightly higher. But after that only a few places struggling with inflation like Hungary, Brazil, Turkey and Iceland are worse. At least when interest rates were 17% under Hawke it was part of a world wide problem. This is just bad policy.
Re 232
The article is completely correct. The impact of the US Subprime was on the cost of wholesale funding – not the losses on the subprime loands themselves. Though it appears Merrill Lynch have made a mess of it….
see http://fairnews.com.au/content/view/43/1/
Some of my comments there are out of date now, but the stuff on subprime is still true.
Ratsak,
Don’t be surprised to see the ACT return two Labor senators or for the Greens to get one up over the Libs Gary Humphries.
I’m expecting the Labor HoR vote here to be 66-70% this time around – a swing of about 5-8%. This will have a huge influence on the second senator, with an orchestrated campaign by Labor and the minor parties to dump Humphries.
A similar effort to remove the Libs Margaret Reid failed years ago – but only just. With the increased excitement of a Labor rout, the removal of Humphries is really on the cards.
Matt Cole @ 166
“Labor may very well lose Bendigo in Victoria, not helped by the abysmal performance of the Brumby Government.”
Is that statement based on fact, wishful thinking or glenism?
ruawake # 227,
Thanks. I’ll bear it in mind.
Ratsak # 229,
Not bad overall. However, there’ll be ice-skating in Hell before Victoria returns a Greens senator – look for 3/3 there. Your numbers don’t add up – or, rather, they add up to 74 senators. There are 76.
Given that of the 36 Senators who don’t have to stand this time, the likely composition is going to be:
(using your numbers) 35 Coalition, 33 ALP, 6 Green, 1 Mr X, and 1 FF.
(using mine) 36 Coalition, 33 ALP, 5 Green, 1 Mr X, and 1 FF.
It actually does make a difference – 38/75 votes are required to pass the Budget (assuming that Labor appoints one of their own as President). If I turn out to be right, then the ALP+Grn vote is one short, and will be required to solicit either Mr X’s support, or (ugh) Fielding’s.
Albanese wiped the floor with Coonan. It just shows you John our bias makes us see what we wnat to see and it makes no differnece to anything who did what to who on Lateline at that time of night. Next.
MC #166
Thanks for that, haven’t had a good chuckle in a while.
I was speaking to Labor ppl here in Bris on Monday that I knew from Uni days, they are ready to claim Moreton (although GH is a tough old coot), Bonner and Herbert. They are extremely pleased with Yvettes campaign in Petrie (who they say works harder and longer than Rudd) and she may very well be up. They also believe that Neumann has enough swing to gain Blair. In fact they believe Ipswich is a Labor city to the tune of 65-35 at the moment – the problem will be Gatton of course. Because of this and the stupidity of the Goodna bypass, Johnson is in trouble in Ryan with the Greens candidate apparently polling high single figures.
Add this to current leads in Leichhardt and with major chances in Flynn and Bowman and Labor may gain 7-8 seats.
As usual, take it with grain of salt as they were obtained via the judicious use of Tequila shots and selective memory as a result.
Interest rates – the fact is that Australians are suckers.
239 Gary, Coonan couldn’t win a debate against herself let alone anyone else.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/10/25/2070097.htm?site=elections/federal/2007
Pulling apart the coalition smear is now getting underway.
Sean @ 169 Complete fabrication on my part. I keep thinking this is a Phrenology site…doh! My only way of giving this any sort of rationalisation is that the coalition primary in some seats could be so low that a few extra independants may pop up. I of course have no way of backing this up.
In regards the attempt to unseat Margaret Reid in the ACT – the candidate that nearly got across the line was a Democrat. I think it’s safe to safe that before they imploded the Democrats were a better natural fit with ACT demographics than the Greens are.
Which is not to say that Kerrie Tucker isn’t it with a chance this time around. She’s a strong candidate.
It’s rated a 16% chance of happening by something I read.
Lord D # 230,
The question is this: where is the swing concentrated? If it’s in seats that the ALP already holds, or those they don’t have a hope in hell of getting, then it’s wasted, unfortunately.
HH # 231,
I hope I am being too pessimistic. Better a pleasant surprise than an unpleasant one – one is enough (I tipped an ALP win in 1998).
Socrates # 234,
Very accurate, and a point that I’ve been trying to make in my family for some time. How do you get it across to people who aren’t interested in details or explanations?
Derek Corbett # 237,
Wash your mouth out with soap! (don’t compare me with Glen) I happen to support the ALP, I just think that its a bit much of an ask to gain 16 seats in one election from a notoriously conservative public, never mind the 40+ that SOME people (looks at Lord D) are punditing. Also, I happen to have lost a lot of confidence in a public that does what the MSM (read: PBL and News Ltd) tells it to do, election after election. Maybe they can restore my faith, maybe not. Either way, I win – if ALP wins, I’ll be happy, if L/NP wins, my bets will generate enough money to get drunk for a week or so to drown the pain.
Gary Bruce #239,
Is there a link that I can watch it through? It may do something to restore my spirits.
Mathew – try this link. http://www.abc.net.au/lateline/
the death of a thousand paper cuts, cut number 989
http://abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/10/24/2069495.htm
Two more credible labor senators for your list.
Ludwig and Evans. both quietly effective contributors in their own way.
Entries are coming in for the seat-by-seat competition … already have 52 different seats selected in total that pollbludgers have predicted could change hands …
See #112 for details of the competition !
Matt @ 238
Forgot to add the two Labor Territory Senators so Labor 33.
Happy to agree about the Green in Vic. Do you think Bartlett has a chance of hanging on in Qld? Maybe at the Coalitions expense?
Lionel, Two Alp or a Green Senator in the ACT would really set the cat amongst the pigeons wouldn’t it. Kill off the Coalitions block straight away after the election rather than waiting for the end of the Senate term. Can’t see it myself as the Liberal vote would need to be well under 30% surely but would be happy to see it.
Mathew Cole @ 216 (etc.) I disagree completely with your prognostications, but that’s your business (thanks Antony, by the way!).
However, the SDA, and the FCU until Lindsey Tanner waged a relentless campaign to win the union leadership in Victoria (an amazing battle that really deserves to be better known!) were the backbone of the DLP. The DLP, in case you forgot, was considerably to the right of the Libs on a number if issues. B.A. Santamaria, who ran the show, took his orders from the Catholic Church hierarchy. I remember being told by my Marist Brother teachers in the 1960s to make sure the folks voted for the DLP candidates. Wow, were they right wing! Not only in comparative terms (as JD @ 226 correctly points out) but in absolute terms as well. Indeed, when they tried to get back in to the ALP (wasn’t all that long ago, 20 years or so I think) it caused a furore. So, all in all, to call the SDA right wing is a pretty fair call. To call them left wing (or even centre left) is plain nuts.
Federal Education Minister Julie Bishop found herself in an awkward position today when she arrived at a Queensland school which was not expecting her.
http://abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/10/24/2069495.htm
.
.
.
And this is the person some people think could one day lead the Liberal Party? Have her staff heard of this thing called a telephone?
At least Julie is out there announcing education funding where is Smith where is this education revolution its just a slogan nothing more!
The current headline on ABC online news is “Union boss cleared on trespass charge”.
Why is it always “union boss”?
Do we hear Howard referred to as “government boss”?
Another example of government double-speak filtering down into the public consciousness, courtesy of ignorant journalists.
Don’t be hard on Matthew! I’m much the same way, a little too afraid to believe Labor can really win by that much. Let’s just say I’m still wearing the scars from the last 3 elections. Matthew is no Liberal troll.
OBLIVION
SCENE: Late afternoon overlooking a barren desert plain. Dust swirls and tumbleweeds roll by.
SFX: The wind howls.
SFX: A whip cracks.
In the middle-distance, a string of ageing donkeys draws a rickety, overladen cart towards the Right. Two figures sit hunched over the reins.
A medium shot shows a wizened OLD MAN and a SULLEN FIGURE sitting on the cart. Behind them on the tray of the cart is an oversized barrel, labelled “Surplus Porkâ€.
The OLD MAN cracks the whip.
SFX: Donkeys bray.
The SULLEN FIGURE stares grimly into the distance.
A wide shot shows the string of donkeys approaching a hill.
A close shot of the OLD MAN shows his face brightening.
OLD MAN
I can see it now, Peter. Just over the hill.
The SULLEN FIGURE raises his eyes to the horizon and sneers.
SULLEN FIGURE
Hmmm… Over the hill.
SFX: The wind is getting stronger.
A close shot shows the donkeys’ hooves, slipping and stumbling in the hillside dust.
OLD MAN (Cracking whip)
Pull, Dolly! Heave-ho, Nelson!
SULLEN FIGURE
We’re losing traction! We’ll never make it up this hill.
Not with all this baggage.
SFX: Donkeys bray.
OLD MAN
Nonsense! I am optimistic. I have a terrific team of tried and trusted thoroughbreds. They’ll pull us through.
Cut to medium shot of donkeys, splay-footed and hoof-torn, eyes rolling in fear.
SFX: Much whip-cracking.
Lots of shots of struggling donkeys, getting nowhere.
The SULLEN FIGURE shakes his head.
OLD MAN
It’s no good. You’ll have to get out and push.
SULLEN FIGURE (Sneering)
Again? I had assumed I would be driving by now.
OLD MAN (Testily)
You’ll get your turn! But I am the only one who can guide us on the tricky, twisting path ahead. There could be union thugs behind every boulder, a green in every tree! I know the way. I’ll get us over this next rise, then you can take us downhill.
The SULLEN FIGURE sighs and dismounts, as though to push.
He stops and looks down at his feet.
A close shot of the SULLEN FIGURE’s feet shows his shiny shoe in a pile of steaming donkey dung.
A close shot of the SULLEN FIGURE shows him looking resentful.
SULLEN FIGURE
Aaah, sh….
OLD MAN
Shhh! Peter! You’ll frighten the horses.
The SULLEN FIGURE sneers and looks down at the traces where they hitch to the front of the cart. The lynch-pin rattles in its coupling.
SULLEN FIGURE (to himself)
I should have pulled this months ago…
OLD MAN
Come on, Peter! One more big effort!
The SULLEN FIGURE pulls out the lynch-pin and slaps the hindmost donkey’s rump.
SULLEN FIGURE
Go Abbot! Up Dolly! Dash away Malcolm! Ruddock, run free!
The donkeys scatter in all directions.
The SULLEN FIGURE begins trudging wearily up the hill.
A close shot of the OLD MAN shows him looking abandoned, bemused.
SFX: A crow calls mournfully. The wind howls.
A long, slow pull back from behind the cart shows the OLD MAN staring defiantly ahead. Beyond him, the SULLEN FIGURE trudges up the hill towards the setting sun.
FADE to BLACKOUT.
#204:
“if the other parties maintain their containment policy against the “radical extremist†Greens and put them last on their how-to-vote cards (as they did unanimously in 2004, if I recall correctly), Family First may end up taking a Senate seat that they would otherwise have gotten.”
Well, Labor – this time around – will put Greens ahead of Family First, they learnt from what happened last time.
#229 / #239:
It seems unlikely that the Greens will hold their seat in NSW, but they could very well pick up a seat in Vic to the detriment of the Democrats. It’s a popular candidate – Richard di Natale – though apparently the Democrats are focussing all their attention on retaining ther Vic seat – of party leader, Lyn Allison – but they’re practically dead as is. The same could happen in WA with Murray (Dem) retiring.
There is also a chance the Greens could pick up a second Tasmanian seat under the popular Andrew Wilkie and a seat in ACT for the Greens candidate Kerrie Tucker is also popular. These two are more unlikely scenarios though.
So, my prediction:
NSW: Coalition 3, Labor 3
Tas: Coalition 3, Labor 2, Greens 1
Vic: Coalition 3, Labor 3*
SA: Coalition 2, Labor 3, Mr X 1
WA: Coalition 3, Labor 3*
Qld: Coalition 3, Labor 3
ACT: Coalition 1, Labor 1
NT: Coalition 1, Labor 1
* in one, or maybe both of these, states the Greens could win a seat.
Was she there to cut the ribbon on the new flagpole?
As much as I’d like to see Labor gain Senate seats, I must admit I hope Andrew Bartlett gets back in the Senate for Qld. He was on a hiding to nothing when the Democrats imploded and has always stuck to his principles on both industrial relations (opposed WorkChoices consistently) and human rights (spoke out against treatment of Dr Haneef, amongst other things).
I have to admite that I don’t know and don’t even care who are the candidates in my electorate.
Comes the election day, I’M GONNA VOTE DOWN HOWARD!
My preference:
Labor > Greens / Democrates > … > Pauline Hanson > John Howard
I was undecided to put who last: Hanson, or Howard, in the end I reward Pauline the second last position
Labor to win 89.
Ozymandias @ 256 – pure genius.
The knives are really coming out now: At the GG, John Durie’s column which the subbie has titled “Costello to blame for interest rate rise”:
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22643323-5013407,00.html
In The Australian today:
“AN interest rate hike will be the most certain bet on Melbourne Cup day and Treasurer Peter Costello has only himself to blame…”
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22643323-5013407,00.html
Although I don’t hold out much hope for The Australian over the course of this election campaign, it is great to FINALLY see the myths about Howard and Costello being wondrous economic managers starting to be deconstructed by some parts of the media.
I think the “great economic management” propaganda has been Howard’s greatest lie. He should never have gotten away with such a sorry performance on the reform front and yet still take credit for anything good going on in the economy. Correlation is not causation. And good luck is not competence.
Spotted: A group of Liberal Party ministerial staffers, having a strategic discussion… all looking very glum.
Matt Cole, the public never pays attention to what the MSM tells them to do. If they did Labor wouldn’t have won government in WA or Vic to start with. They wouldn’t have won WA again at the last election. The media only grudgingly gave a nod to the ALP in NSW at the last state election when it became obvious the Coalition would not win.
I actually have more faith in people to make up their own minds. If you think the ALP are going to lose that’s fine, so do I. However, the more you try and rationalise how the ALP will lose the sillier it sounds. The ALP were never going to win in 1998, 2 years was not going to be long enough to get over Keating. The polling didn’t look anywhere near as promising, and Howard would never have thought to introduce the GST if he thought he had a real risk to lose government.
Lastly, how do you explain the poll showing Joe Hockey behind in North Sydney? What about Liberal Party internal polling still showing Howard behind in Bennelong? The focus of pork barreling in safe seats?
Just reading the ABC transcript that Gary Bruce kindly directed me to.
OMG, Albanese wiped the floor with her! After months of people like Glen saying that the ALP frontbench had no depth, it refreshes my heart to read that transcript! Definitive proof that the opposition doesn’t need Rudd holding it’s hand to get anywhere.
mike_f #247,
Wow. That isn’t going to help the Coalition.
No campaign at all yet in Berowra, only one postal application form in the letterbox from Ruddock. Not a squeak from the Labor Party.
This is rock solid safe Liberal territory, probably why neither party will waste too many resources here.
You can see that the Greens are pouring a lot into their advertising in the ACT:
http://kerrietucker.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2007/09/Vote_for_Kerrie_to_Save_The_Senate.swf
Matthew Cole 216
Canning (needing 9%) and Kalgoorlie (needing 6%)
I agree these are long shots for the ALP and you see that
my most likely scenario for WA does not include them.
However, all we can go on is that
Canning often appears on lists of electorates with special sensitivity to mortgage and cost of living stresses
1) the Libs are putting their resources into Cowan, Hasluck and Stirling
2) Westpoll is showing only small swings in these three seats
3) Westpoll and quarterly Newspoll are showing overall 5-6% swing to ALP in WA
4) Maths says this means an 8% swing to ALP on average in the other 12 WA seats
5) Newspoll also shows the biggest swings are in the safer Lib seats
6) there is no separate polling available for Canning and Kalgoorlie
7) last election ALP result in Canning had reasons to be unusually bad
9) Kalgoorlie is unpredictable
10) Labor’s WA infrastucture policy seems to be being noticed as
a positive in Kalgoorlie
11) there are reasons to believe that there is some chance that the Liberal campaign nationally will fall apart
Thus, putting all this together, I think that you would have to be very confident in some sort of Liberal magic to bet your house on them holding both seats.
I would suggest something like a 30% chance of ALP winning at least one of them.
LTEP….debating yourself now? Or are you prepared to predict a Labor win?
labor 91, liberal 57 , ind 2
howard to lose bennelong
I think Kerrie’s got a good chance with the Senate but will fall short.
Having said that I’ve heard lots of people talking about her positively recently and how she’s not ‘loopy’ like the rest of the Greens. Also seen Gary Humphries out campaigning a few times.
Mathew Cole @ 238
The President of the Senate (unlike the Speaker of the House of Representatives) has exactly the same voting rights as any other member of the chamber. Thus a majority in the Senate is always 39 out of 76, regardless of who the President is (assuming no abstentions).
The interest rate rise we had to have will be followed by the electoral rout we had to have; they are umbilically connected.
Howard to lose Bennelong in the betting markets in the first week of November, just after the nags.
Socrates @ 259 – I’m very tempted to give Andrew Bartlett my #1 in the senate, though I doubt it will save him. Probably for the senate I’ll go Bartlett / Greens / Labor / others / Pauline last and certainly least. Unless anyone wants to convince me that approach would waste any of my vote – I think it should exhaust with Labor, right?
BTW I’ve always voted below the line (all numbers), even with the NSW monster ticket when I was in Sydney
Any “tips and rumours” from Crikey regarding tomorrow’s polls? I don’t have a subscription…
Senate prediction (before pref tickets are revealed)
ALP: 19, Coalition: 16, GRN: 2, DEM: 2, XEN: 1
Maybe I’m an optimist!
VIC: 3 LAB, 3 LIB/NAT
SA (Xenophon to drag majors down to 4 seats):
2 LIB, 2 LAB, 1 XEN, 1 DEM
NSW: 3 LIB/NAT, 3 LAB
QLD: 2 LIB/NAT, 3 LAB, 1 DEM
(tempted to put FF or Hanson here)
WA: 3 LIB/NAT, 3 LAB
TAS: 3 LAB, 2 LIB, 1 GRN
ACT: Greens to pull an upset and break coalition control of senate
1 LAB, 1 GRN
NT: 1 LAB, 1 LIB
Is that Tucker ad for TV or just the net Sean?
As a beer drinking Bogan from the electorate of Herbert, may I just say that I think it’s great the Labor contender Colbran has announced REAL cash to fund a V8 supercar track here in Townsville.
For years there has been talk of a V8 supercar race here, and every year Peter Lindsay(Lib) has dilly dallied on the topic. Now he says he will try and “secure funding” we just have to re-elect him again. BULLSHIT!
Peter Lindsay you have been our member since 1996, if you were going to fund the V8’s you would have done it already!!
PS. Townsville is very much a “car culture” city, so this will definately win him big points especially from Gen Y voters
wysiwyg Says:
“I’m very tempted to give Andrew Bartlett my #1 in the senate, though I doubt it will save him.”
Not all. Remember: “Vote Early and Vote Often.”
My prediction is 88 ALP, 60 Coalition, 2 Independents.
Matthew – I will send in the details to you separately.
So it’s an AC Nielsen, Galaxy and Morgan polls tomorrow?
HH # 255,
Thanks for the defence. I wasn’t aware that I was acting like a Lib troll – no insults of ALP, just somewhat gloomy prognostications of their chances.
Dr Good #269,
Fair enough – 30-ish percent I’ll agree is a reasonable chance if Labor doesn’t screw up the campaign. Your previous post simply appeared to post those gains as certain. If I misinterpreted it, then I apologise.
J-D #273,
Then it appears that ALP+Grn will still be one vote short. Damn.
Dembo #277,
There won’t be any Democrats left in the Senate after this election. Also, you may wish to give the Greens a seat in WA – they tend to do well over here.
“At least Julie is out there announcing education funding where is Smith where is this education revolution its just a slogan nothing more!”
Glen: Steven Smith was on Brissy Radio yesterday debating Julie Bishop.
Or rather running rings around Bishop, all she could do was talk in cliches and fumble on figures. Although she did admit that the Govt had underfunded schools until 2004 – because it took until then to pay off Labor debt. I don’t think even Costello would say that.
Ozymandius 256
Beautiful. Perhaps you could script a Simpsons episode? Here is a suggested cast:
Bart Simpson – Kevin Rudd
Lisa Simpson – Julia Gillard
Milhouse – Wayne Swann (I say it with love – its the glasses)
Homer Simpson – Kim Beazley
Abe Simpson – Gough Whitlam
Monty Burns – guess who?
Waylon Smithers – Alexander Downer
Principle Skinner – Peter Costello
Mayor “Diamond Joe” Quimby – Malcom Turnbull
Police Chief Clancy Wiggum – Kevin Andrews
Dr Nick Riviera – Tony Abbott (soley based on health responsibility)
Krusty the Clown – Joe Hockey
Cletus the yokel – any Queensland national
Groundskeeper Willie – Bill Heffernan or Wilson Tuckey
Interestingly, of the predictions I have so far, there is a consensus for 14 particular electorates changing hands …
Rates Analyst,
I’d be interested to hear your take on Steve Keen’s comments on Lateline Business last night. Transcript here:
http://www.abc.net.au/lateline/business/items/200710/s2069577.htm
Basically he’s saying that a rate rise would in fact exacerbate the inflation problem because all of the rise is coming from higher prices in finance, insurance and real estate, i.e. by and large the financial services sector. Hence a rate rise would actually make these things more expensive. Strip that out and you’re left with an underlying figure of 1.1% for everything else for the year to date.
But having set themselves up to hike rates, not doing so could be seen to be playing politics. Can’t win?
Diddums from the Business Council of Australia.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/10/25/2070197.htm?section=justin
Matthew Sykes,
I’m betting that those 14 electorates are the same 14 electorates that Portlandbet has Labor gaining after the election.
LaborVoter: Never liked Lindsay, and his electoral office near Stockland makes him look like King Tut or something. I know at one stage the Townsville city council was looking in to the fact he was breaching signage laws.
BTW, how do you think the council amalgamations affect the region? I know Townsville has always wanted it, but Thuringowa has opposed it (which dates back to the Dan Gleason times).
Last night’s Chaser on ABC: watched by 1.6 million across the country.
A good sign that political satire is being embraced by so many.
Howard will never live down that apparent spasm from Sunday night’s debate LOL
wysiwyg @ 275
a below the line kinda guy myself (shits the missus no end having to wait for me to finish).
You just never know who you might be voting for (does the name Fielding ring any bells?)
MC 245.
Why is 16 seats, in itself, too many to win in one election? The ALP won 18 in 1998. I question the “abysmal performance by the Brumby govt’ costing Bendigo. You may think its abysmal, but what evidence makes you think other people are of the same opinion? And why will it effect Bendigo?
30 sleeps to go and everybody wants to be a soothsayer.
OK,then, succumbing to peer pressure
ALP 88 Coal. 60 Ind. 2
One relishes a friendly game where all may participate in a democratic fashion, and nobody gets hurt except losers.
Liberal encourages brain dead socialites like Tabitha.
Labor is too good to play that game.
I think FF are going to become a little more irrelevant at this election (if thats possible).
A lot of the ALP oriented voters that i know are disappointed in the ALP tax policy. It should have had a lot less in tax cuts and more in services. At least it should have been more obviously oriented to controlling inflation.
That said, friend who are LNP voters have been saying they will vote ALP this time as they don’t like the Libs tax cuts at the top end of the scale.
So, since they aren’t going to vote for Rattus, and want him gone, they will vote ALP in the HOR and Greens in the Senate. Particularly since Greens look like directing preferences to the ALP and that makes it easier to vote above the line.
My prediction is still 82 HOR seats to the ALP, and the Greens BOP in the Senate.
can someone tell us a bit about kevin rudds seat, whats the margin, who’s the lib candidate etc…
ps. Tabitha, I’ll fight you for Glen. 3.15pm at the bike sheds. See ya there.
My only senate prediction relates to Qld. ALP-3 Libs-2 Somebody Else-1.
This is exactly what happened during the 2005 WA State Election re Nurses.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/10/25/2070252.htm?section=justin
Jai-mei #298 I’ll organise the jelly and pay per view, you need a manager!
Not everything at the Australian is crap
…… (apologies if someone else has already posted this, I have been away from the computer for about 6 hours)
http://media.theaustralian.news.com.au/nich/20071025_bed_bugs.htm
Chris
http://www.abc.net.au/elections/federal/2007/guide/grif.htm
Tabitha (159)
In a democracy you have the right to say and believe anything you like.
But if you want to be seen as a “strong and independent” woman – and perhaps a role model for other liberal minded women to follow – you will need to do more than just spout silly slogans. You obviously have the ability so why don’t you give it a go.
For Liberal Party supporters… what normally happens with internal party polling?
Is it usually released to individual members for their seats? I’m just trying to get my mind around backencher confidence…
Ashley@209. To continue to work in the old media it is necessary to lean right,token leftys are hired to give an impression of balance. Even the ABC gone all neo-con in last few years.Lateline use people like John Bolton,Frank Gaffney,Christopher Hitchins to discuss U.S. foreign policy these peple are mad war mongers.Why do they use these people?
I had book years ago that showed editorials from pre WW2 British newspapers they were all gung ho for Adolph except they Daily Mirror and the Guardian .They were doing what they always do reflect their owners opinions.
My prediction ALP 108.The wild west to come good with 6 seats.
imacca@295, remember Labor put riders on their tax policy depending on economic circumstances, consulting with treasury, being responsible and fiscally conservative, etc. Perhaps a bit of wriggle room to make some changes after the (hoped-for) win? Though I think they’ll want to keep at least the LITO and 15% cuts, as that was their policy in the first place (and these encourage participation thus help capacity).
Bit late in the game…but my predictions
ALP 83 / Coalition 65 / 2 Ind
Bass
Bennelong
Blair
Bonner
Braddon
Deakin
Dobell
Eden-Monaro
Hasluck
Herbert
Kingston
La Trobe
Linday
Makin
McMillan
Moreton
Page
Parramatta
Ryan
Solomon
Sturt
Stirling
Wakefield
Matt Cole
I just noticed you had Brand as a liberal gain in WA.
The Australian noted a few weeks back that the ALPs margin was likely to double this election.
And the candidate (Gary Gray) knows how to organise a campaign. He’ll be fine (and a quality member for the area too!).
It is offensive that you compare Wayne Swan to Milhouse…Milhouse is smarter than Wayne Swan so dont bring him down to the Rooster’s level!
Wilson Tuckey on Swan
“The reality of Swan i mean you know, crawl under a rug and not make a bump”
I was just wondering if more Catholics vote Labor then do Liberals?
Swing Lowe @276, nothing in Crikey.
imacca@296
irrelevant or not, you can consider my vote is locked-in, a hard-Labor (if using the term hard/soft)
But make no mistake, I only want to pull down Howard. Had the Coalition ditch Howard before Nov.24, I would seriously re-consider voting for them. Anyone but Howard!
LTEP,
Put me down for 104 (Labor), 44 (coalition), 2 other
Glen you’re a gun!
Gillard reminds me of Brandine, Cletus the yokle’s wife and Ruddock of Mr Burns, lol
John, Rudd is more like the sly Senator Mendoza…
Wilson Tuckey is McBain…
Wayne Swan is Frank Grimes…lol!
Crikey these days has a cabbie panel which I think are more reliable than the experts in MSM. 3 out of the 4 cabbies do not think that Howard will survive an interest rate hike in Nov.
Yo Ho Ho # 309,
Only in the event of a worst-case scenario, which could happen after all.
Glen #310,
How’s it goin’? Thought you’d show up sooner. If you want quotes, here’s one:
“You stupid boxhead, you wouldn’t know. You’re flat out counting past ten.” – Paul Keating on Wilson “Iron Bar” Tuckey. How accurate! And at least Swan doesn’t go bump in the night, unlike the LP’s collection of ghouls on the frontbenches.
Mr Matt Cole @ 245
Have washed mouth using Parmolive Gold, followed by a cheeky Listerine.
It’s just that I feel a bit touchy about Bendigo after moving into the seat about two years ago from La Trobe. Bad memories.
It’s a difficult area. We live in a small town POP 900, mostly made up of elderly conservatives and cowboys driving utes. (I’m currently working in Sydney). The town has three pubs, but no hardware store. There is a strong feeling of community, however, and a strong sense of probity.
Cross ‘em, you’re dead. I suspect Howard has crossed that line in my town.
Glen , Swan reminds me of the Detective Homer Simpson – O, oh Spaghtetti-os!
I would have Howard as Burns and Costello as Smithers.
Actually Swan reminds me of Homers relatives especially the guy who shoots birds at the airport lol!
Im sure Swan would partake in putting a saucepan on his head and ramming into someone else in a fight like they had in the episode…
I can just see Swan….eeuuuuuuggggggggh BAM!
Before they go into a polling booth, every Australian voter should be made to sit down and watch this video of Paul Keating at Greg Combet’s campaign launch.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/10/25/2070097.htm?site=elections/federal/2007
Glen, I thought you were going to imagine Swan as Homer’s relative who plays rich people at fancy dress parties.
Or maybe the guy who runs the unsuccessful shrimp company…but you run it right oooh yeah!
Or Swan could be the guy who at the end says “hey what about our five bucks?” lol that is Swan for sure!
I have the election winning slogan.
It always rains more with a labor government in power!
Look at the stats on average rainfall during the last 11 years, and that during hawke/keating years. the fraser years similar to hawke keating.
Latham as Doctor Marvin Monroe – here for a few years and then gone.
Rudd as Lisa Simpson everythings a challenge or a catastrophe.
Swans steadily getting more cred. I heard him on radio national this morning and he did a good job of rebutting the smirk. Costello didn’t want to debate him on Tuesday but had his hand forced by Kerry Obrien on Monday night saying that Costello had not agreed to a debate on the 7:30 report. Thats Costello for you – take him outside of parliament and away from his chorus of chamber goons and treasury wet nurses and the guy hasn’t a clue. Ressession, communists, trade unions – what next – alien monsters. The veneer around this guy is starting to peel away.
anyone want to take a stab at the result in Higgins, then?
Matthew Cole @ #224
Reiterate previous comment re: Isaacs, Victoria. Sitting member Ann Corcoran was ousted by Mark Dreyfus for pre-selection.
Dreyfus will win Isaacs comfortably.
Corcoran was essentially just a talentless seat warmer. Dreyfus has real talent and will likely be a Minister one day.
Poor performance in 2004 was predominately due to the Latham factor and Howard’s “interest rates promise”. There’s a hard core Liberal heartland around Patterson Lakes (the booth that I worked) and along the bay, but a strong mortgage belt and lower socio-economic pathology inland from the bay towards Noble Park.
The former are rusted on Libs, but the latter will swing back to Labor due to:
1. Workchoices.
2. Howards betrayal due to interest rate rises (which, as was intended by the Liberals, was interpreted by these people as Howard promising that rates would not rise.)
Dreyfus will win and extend the margin to around 5%.
Howard stuffed up again. He said he had created 450,000 new jobs 85% of them PART TIME.
Mike
THe smirk to hold by a slim margin. I think its a approx 12% swing needed….Then again, we might be surprised, given his appalling performance over the last couple of weeks. I’d personally take a labor win by 2 seats if it meant those seats were Bennelong and Higgins…
mike_f, Costello returned with a slight swing against him. I’ve heard he is a popular local candidate.
Higgins is a Liberal retain – Flinders and Aston will go before Higgins…
Swanny won’t remain as Treasurer! If Gillard wishes to be PM one day then she will need to be seen often and IR will not get her that.
Wayne will be there saying to Kevin “hey what about my five bucks?”
Kevin replies “you get it after you leave!” lol
ruawake, last night he said something or other (i can’t recall) was going to be in place by 1916…senior moments escalating.
Has the Tiser turned? I’ve noticed a most certain shift in the Tiser’s tone of late. Smelling the winds of change?
This is headlining their online site
http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,22646139-5014075,00.html
I think we’ve finally confined John and Glen to talking to one another. Maybe they could hold a party meeting. I wonder if they play in the same area of the playground?
If Kooyong and Goldstein are running a temperature, like I’m hearing they are, then isn’t every Liberal seat in Melbourne on the line?
Western Australia will deliver Howard a 5th Election victory!
Glen, 23.3.2007
My natural pessimism has been diluted by polls and Possums. ALP to win 91 seats.
Some further suggestions
Ned Flanders – Brendan Nelson (scarry resemblance)
Alice Krebople – Amanda Vanstone (finally on that Italian holiday)
Barney Gumble – Mark Vaille
Moe Sizlak – Mal Brough
Selma (and Patti) – Helen Coonan
and while I’m at it, what the h. is so special about WA that it’s (allegedly) bucking national trends (allegedly) so much? (allegedly) delivering seats to the coalition and 9allegedly) holding back seats that only need 2% to change sides? ‘Cause I figure that an election like this is largely geography-proof.
I think as it becomes more and more obvious as to the election outcome the media will start backing the perceived winner. They want ‘in’ with the government just like anybody else.
ALP 80 seats, 2 independents, 68 coalition and a partridge in a pear tree
Lol, yes Gary we’re in the cool kids yard! You can join us but you have to show us your Liberal membership card
OZY @ 256
I wish to invest. This is a box-office goer! My $10 is on the table. However, need small change to script. Lacks naked vicar.
JoM: You Libs know this as much us Labor voters do that Gillard will NEVER be PM unless she switches factions. She maybe of the Ferguson faction, but it’s still a Left faction and no way in hell will the Right let the Left get that. Mind you, the way she has moved to the right in her career, soon she will become the driest Lib in all of history.
348 ???What the??? I’m obviously missing something?
The Naked Vicar I meant. interesting visual on it’s own though
Will the enticement of Power can make you do all sort of things. Look at Rudd from Bonhoeffer to little JWH who knows what else he’ll mirror
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/opinion/animations/0,25199,25,00.html
It funny cos its true!
Oh, the times they are a changing, fancy the Oz publishing Keating blasting Howard;
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22646284-11949,00.html
My prediction:
89:59:2
I put in a bet a month or so ago for a clean-sweep in Tasmania.
Seats to change to ALP:
Robertson
Longman
Cowper
Gippsland
Paterson
Herbert
Blair
McEwen
Stirling
Dobell
LaTrobe
Hasluck
Solomon
Sturt – will particularly enjoy Christopher Pyne’s concession speech
Corrangamite
Bennelong
McMillan
Deakin
Page
Boothby
Eden-Monaro
Lindsay
Braddon
Parramatta (already held but redistributed as Liberal)
Bonner
Wakefield
Kingston
Makin
(whilst some might expect Wentworth on a list of these proportions I think Turnbull will probably hold on as there were unusual circumstances last time).
I’d like to start a new guessing game, entitled how many Ministers will loose their seats?
My prediction is for 5.
I would have preferred labor to have waited until after this inflation figure and scaled down the size of their tax cuts – Howard and costello would have basically been left standing their looking very stupid and without an ounce of credibility… and their could have been some real spending on infrastructure, health, education etc…
The Minister for Infrastructure won’t lose his seat because there isn’t one. There’s only a Shadow Minister. Infrastructure isn’t anything the Libs are concerned about.
My prediction:
98 ALP – 49 Coal. – 3 Ind (New England, Kennedy & either Calare or Parkes).
Somewhat irrelevant but while watching Howard on Sky today I couldn’t help but notice just how much he is now waffling aimlessly when making announcements.
JoM: But until she joins the Right, she won’t get the job. If she does switch factions it still won’t be certain she would ever get the top job. She would lose support of her current faction, the Right would be suspicious about letting her anywhere near the job. She would have to be a member of the Right for so long that her political career would be near the end before it could become a reality.
Sorry but keep dreaming about ‘Julia The Red’ becoming PM because it will never happen.
Let It End (358)
Not irrelevant – it reinforces opinions out there that Howard is past it and that it’s time to move on.
His age, lack of hearing and general appearance of ill-health are emphasised by his inability to understand what’s happening to people out there in the real world.
He’s just lost, confused, has no answers, so can’t communicate with any audience except for the senior citizens – ans these now only in person.
I hate the man with a passion, but am almost feeling sorry for him at the moment because he just has no clue to why he is so hated and destined for a hiding on Nov 24.
Almost, but not quite!
LTEP:
My prediction is … ALP 82, Coaltion 65, Ind 3
The 3rd independent will come from Forrest in WA.
I won’t waste bandwidth by noting all the ALP gains, BUT I do think
that Cowan will fall to the Libs, so the ALP will gain 23 seats.
While I think WA will swing to the ALP in general, it will “only” be
by 3-4% and I think the name recognition factor for Graham
Edwards will counteract the fact that Cowan is classic mortgage belt
(i.e. should be plenty of p***ed off voters).
Apart from my magic 23, here are my 5 smokies:
Dunkley (Vic), Ryan (Q), Menzies (Vic), Nth Sydney (NSW) and ….
Mayo (SA).
OK … Mayo is a pipe dream but if you’re going to dream then
dream big I say … though my dreams aren’t big enough to consider Dr Patricia Petersen knocking off Abbott in Warringah.
There are a number of seats discussed as being in danger that I haven’t included in my 23 to fall (e.g. Bennelong, Corangamite, Kalgoorlie …
), but I would
probably all the Coalition seats not on 15%+ margins
classify any of these are “pleasant surpises” as opposed to genuine shocks.
Rudd has campaigned in Goldstein a few times lately, including yesterday. ALP internal polling must be giving them some encouragement in that seat, otherwise Rudd wouldn’t be bothering.
Is there a decent ALP candidate standing against Andrew Robb?
Will I understand your point completely but who in their wildest dreams thought Rudd would be leader of the Opposition?
Dunkley and Menzies wont fall. But they dont need to. I also think its good for an opposition to hold some seats.
Lionel @360…don’t ever start feeling sorry for this man (even in jest : )
IMHO he deserves everything that he is increasingly likely to get handed to him on 24/11 – is it too much to ask for some lip-trembling a la Fraser in ‘83? That would be too much pleasure
mark-sydney, I want him to explode in rage, blast the Australian people, swear and then storm off.
Nath
Hmmm – yea, that’d be pretty good too come to think of it!
nath 364:
Well, they _are_ smokies …
lionel @ 360 – resist feeling sorry for el rodente. recall the images of kids being blown apart in iraq.
I want to see Howard cry!!!, him and the rest of the horrible Libs as they find themselves being blasted to oblivion.
Maybe Hyacinth can concede for him, since she is the puppet master anyway.
hyacinth will have chained herself to the barbie in the backyard at kirribilli house.
Goodness gracious,
Labor has been running at between 56-60% most of the year. Given the interest rate debate over the next couple of weeks which will culminatte with an interest rate rise on November 7, then it is unlikely that there will be a come back.
I’m going with a nice 10% swing as the final result, which on Antony Green’s swing thingy means Labor score 106. I am also calling Zochling for Warringah.
Final prediction is 107 for Labor, 41 for the Libs, 2 Independents.
You know it makes sense.
I ALMOST feel sorry for the rodent. I just want to see the look in his eyes at about 9.00pm on Saturday 24 November when he walks to the podium for his concession speech.
It’s a shame that he won’t live long enough to see the scorn and derision that historians will no doubt treat his tenure as PM with.
I want him to realise that on election night, and I want to see the realisation of that in his eyes.
That’s what he, and those that knew prior to 1996 what he was like, deserve.
Bring on the rout.
ALP 106 seats, LNP 42, Ind 2
If Howard keeps up with these “senior moments” expect Hyacinth to takeover ala “Mission Impossible” style with a Johnnie rubber face mask.
Ophuph Hucksake
Patricia Petersen manages abou 1500 votes ( I think). But if she knocked off Tony Abbott – the confession would cause Uncle George to blow a fuse. Now that would be worth it – and we all know about Stupid Tony.
Rumour from Andrew Landeryou’s blog:
Peter Hendy (from the ACCI) is set to resign after the federal election. I guess it wouldn’t be too fun leading an organisation that ran ads condemning the incoming government as economic novices…
http://andrewlanderyou.blogspot.com/2007/10/nuggets-reports-from-behind-and-beyond.html
Is this another indication that the Liberals think it’s all over?
Observer 376:
Hmmm, I must be getting on in years, unintentional double-entendres are cropping up in my posts.
GG – from a purely rational point of view, It would be pretty hard to mount an argument against that.
Swing Lowe (377)
This is an admission that the Libs have no hope, and that his attempting to lead the ‘business union’ is hopeless considering Rudd has said, quite plainly, that if elected he wouldn’t deal with him.
Did he jump before pushed though – that is the question.
i don’t think we’ll have to wait until 9pm, lionel.
What happened in Ireland will happen here!
Rudd you’re a bastard!
http://www.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/story/0,22049,22646718-5001021,00.html
passthepopcorn: Ask Antony, it will depend on if it’s a close or a landslide.
Who’s pulling the shots?
http://www.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/story/0,22049,22642788-5001021,00.html
Yeah, I will. I reckon it will be one of the 104 I said Labor would win. Both Costello and Howard have used up their “get out of jail free” cards.
:)
Re Keating.
Here are some of his best from over the years:
http://www.webcity.com.au/keating/
you’re right, will, but i have those nightmarish memories of …shudder…last time, when it was over before i and my fellow party-attendees had barely had time to sink a few cleansing ales. i’m just ever hopeful of a landslide.
PassthePopcorn – he’ll wait for the WA polls to close before conceding. Or he should at least be courteous enough to his still-unelected colleagues to wait until they close.
Labor is totally awesome.
Liberal sux.
WA unionist Joe McDonald acquitted
Richard Pratt guilty
Looks like its time to buy a good sparking red and put it away for 24 November.
Good afternoon ladies and gentlemen
It is my happy joy to report that the over-burden has been removed due to good works by hard workers. Now we have real strata with which to deal. Excavations by this date have exposed an inter-linked series of cess pits. My diggers are now working on an approach to the main chamber.
Remember: bag and tag. 6.30am start.
OBLIVION II –The Redemption
SCENE: Dawn, looking eastwards where a ridge topped with stunted shrubs is silhouetted against the brightening pink of sunrise.
A SULLEN FIGURE staggers towards us over the rise, a dead donkey slung across his shoulders.
A close shot of the SULLEN FIGURE shows he is on the point of collapse. He falls to his knees and shrugs the donkey from his shoulders. It lies stiffly on its back, legs splayed and neck arched in rigor mortis.
SFX: A crow calls far away.
Flies buzz.
The SULLEN FIGURE sniffs the air and turns towards the donkey.
SULLEN FIGURE
Thought so. You’ve been dead for a while.
He stands and kicks the donkey
SFX: Ghostly braying.
The SULLEN FIGURE begins to stagger westwards, parched and exhausted.
SFX: A crow calls, closer.
The deep-throated thrumming of a powerful engine, distant at first then coming nearer.
The SULLEN FIGURE stops and looks towards the hill.
A close shot of the SULLEN FIGURE’s face shows he recognises the sound.
An extreme close shot of his eyes, squinting intently
dissolves to
FLASHBACK: a close shot of the Sullen Figure in his salad days, eyes bright, cheeks aglow, his smirk a beacon.
A pullback reveals the SULLEN FIGURE is sitting behind the wheel of a powerful car.
SULLEN FIGURE
Woo-Hoo! Tanya’s gonna love this baby! Can’t believe how cheaply I got it off that Keating bloke.
VOICE OFF (It is an OLD MAN’s voice)
Err… Yippee! Put your pedal to the metal Peter; let’s see what she can do!
A close shot of the SULLEN FIGURE shows him turning towards us, surprised.
From the SULLEN FIGURE’s Point of View we see the OLD MAN sitting in the passenger seat, trimming his eyebrows.
Cut to a close shot of the SULLEN FIGURE, looking horrified.
dissolves to
THE PRESENT: The SULLEN FIGURE is shaking his head, as though to rid it of a nauseating image.
SFX: The engine sound is louder, closer.
The SULLEN FIGURE looks towards the hill.
From the SULLEN FIGURE’s Point of View we see a shiny white Prius cresting the hill, the sun glinting blindingly from its crystal windscreen.
The SULLEN FIGURE squints to identify the driver.
The Prius descends the hill towards the SULLEN FIGURE, trailing (bio-friendly) dust.
Flash-zoom through the Prius windscreen to where the GRINNING PIXIE is driving. We see that the bright glinting is from his eyes.
The SULLEN FIGURE turns away and trudges on, muttering to himself.
The Prius slows alongside the SULLEN FIGURE and the passenger side window lowers. The GRINNING PIXIE leans forward.
GRINNING PIXIE
Everything all right, mate?
The SULLEN FIGURE stops and turns.
SULLEN FIGURE
What have you done to my V8 economy?
GRINNING PIXIE
That was Eric Ripper’s line you stole.
SULLEN FIGURE
So what’s new?
GRINNING PIXIE
We’re a hybrid economy now, Pete. Genuinely compassionate conservatively reformist technocratic environmentality’s the go now. Want a lift?
The SULLEN FIGURE sniffs. He reaches for the passenger door.
SULLEN FIGURE
Yeah, why not? Anything to get me away from the stench of that dead donkey.
Dissolve.
Roll credits.
Alright …. polls close at 6pm, WA is still in DST trials so they will close at 6pm locally. That makes 8pm on the East Coast.
I can handle a concession speech at 8pm
Galaxy Polls are dodgy. I don’t trust a company that doesn’t publish an email contact on it’s website. And with all that free publicity they are getting you think they might have a decent website.
Looks like the Tory tax packackage is unravelling. It was announced as $34 Billion but Hockey seems to have trimmed it by a $ Billion.
“And that is why we are giving them $33 billion in tax cuts.”
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/news/queensland/forget-the-polls-hockey/2007/10/25/1192941214504.html
JoM: Keep reading Rudd’s comments for the day, he said MacDonald’s membership is suspended and if he is found guilty then he will be expelled. What ever happened to innocent until proven guilty? Oh that’s right, it went out the do with the truth when Howard came in.
BTW, one of the six charges against MacDonald today has been thrown out of court. I bet you’ll be saying that the courts are run by left wing cronies if MacDonald gets off on all charges.
Until the Libs returns Pratt’s money to him, don’t come here scaremongering about a union rep who has allegedly done something wrong. If he is found guilty, then I’m all for kicking him out, but until then you have no case.
Anyone have a clue about how things are going in Page? Most of the commentary in the blogs seems to come from elsewhere.
it’s stress, steve. they’re all losing it.
Maybe out of desperation the Liberals will start getting Hyacinth to campaign for them in marginal seats? LOL
In the same link at 396 Hockey tries to tell us to believe him and not polls.
# 366 nath, considering the flaky way he’s handling himself now another 4 weeks of stress and rejection may just well result in your desire coming true.
#375 One of your best wombat, though I doubt any of the conservatives would actually notice the difference lol.
Great minds think alike
:) …. I purchased 2 wonderful bottles of red today from my bowls club. It was a fundraiser to help the club out so it was a win-win situation. They are sitting on the back of the kitchen counter waiting for the polls to close 
Well, I opened a bottle of 12yo port on Monday to celebrate the Newspoll. I’m saying the 18yo bottle of Glenfiddich for Howard’s concession speech… looking forward to it, already (and yes, Glen, I know this is hubris!)
i’m about to jump in the car and drive to the hunter for the weekend. any orders for 24/11?
Passthepopcorn: anything but chardonnay
Beer, and lots of it.
Apologies if this has already been mentioned but Crikey have a piece on Coalition odds back to where they were before election called (i.e. Coalition chance of winning is 33%/ALP 67%) after a tightening of the odds post Libs tax cut announcement:
http://www.crikey.com.au/Election-2007/20071025-Farmer-The-real-Cup-Day-punt.html
I could do with a nice Cab Sav for election night.
Will doesn’t Pratt give money to the ALP as well?
Culturally appropriate cocktail for Stirling: grappa, with a Spumante chaser.
Re Pathological Logic at 287:
Firstly, as acknowledged in the interview, food was way up also. Most people need to eat.
The argument about housing looks good on the surface – but it fails when you read the ABS document. On page 3 you come across this pearler of a line:
“All categories of housing recorded price rises this quarter. Main contributors to the increases were increases in rents (+1.6%), house purchase (+1.0%), electricity (+4.3%), property rates and charges (+4.5%) and water and sewerage (+5.5%).”
“Housing” as a category makes up something like 18% or 20% of the CPI. But the category “Housing” is just the name – it also includes a number of other things which are, essentially, utilities. And the utilities also rose too. So that’s food and utilities which rose greatly (not to mention housing in the proper sense).
Note also that the category finanical and insurance services does NOT include interest. They changed it a few years ago to expressly exclude interest rates. Financial services means things like bank fees and charges – actually likely to be lower if interest rates rise. Now we’ve got food, utilities and bank fees. It also shirks the fact that LAND is part of the CPI under housing. Raising rates will depress land prices – and in fact would already have been doing so.
As I’ve noted in other places, changes to the treatement of the chold care tax rebate subtracted 0.2pts in a one off.
The final point is petrol – petrol fell quarter on quarter but is rising steadily now. The fall in petrol subtracted 0.2 pts from the CPI in September. Once you add that 0.2 back on for next quarter and then add back on the Child Care tax rebate induced fall of 0.2 that won’t be repeated there’s an extra 0.4 floating around. We’re staring down the barrell of 1.1 or 1.2 for the Dec quarter.
Further down the ABS document there’s also a note that the “tradeables” inflation (essentially things you can import – so they have global prices) did not rise very much: only 0.2%.
However, the non-tradables, (things you can’t import/export, mostly services) rose 1.1%. The only thing holding down Austrlian inflation is the fact that we’re small and take global prices for some things. Those global prices have been falling – but there’s no garantuee they will continue to fall. In the case of petrol, we know the opposite is already looking very likely.
The argument that if you exclude housing you only get 0.2% is true, but also misses the fact that you have left in -0.4 of “one-off reductions”. It also misses the fact that housing is important – most people need it. If rents were the sole contributor it would be thorny, but inflation is much more broad based than that.
The other scary thing about the CPI figure, which the annual figures hide, is the quarter-on-quarter progresion. The last four quarters of headline inflation have been
-.1, .1 , 1.2, 0.7 (but really 0.9, if not 1.1).
So the annual figure looks OK at about 2.0%, but wait till next quarter when the -0.1 drops out. The chance of repeating the -0.1 is VERY slim…. in fact there’s good reason to believe the -0.1 will be replaced with +1.1 or so.
The case for Nov is made already and more so, in my view. The RBA are half way to either a Dec or Feb rate rise too.
Simply put, inflation is high and rising. Rates will rise too.
410 Will,
Mine are Shiraz blended with Cab Sav
:)
all orders noted. ciao.
This has got to be worth at least 5 extra points to Labor’s 2pp.
Shopping with Swanny!
http://www.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/story/0,22049,22646947-5001028,00.html
What next how to clothe ourselves?
For John of Melbourne (411) – I think the ratio is $1,000,000 to the Liberals and $100,000 to Labor. I’ll look for the reference.
David Speers dressed in black.
Is that an omen?
Julie: Jameson Run used to have a great Cab Shiraz Merlot. I think it was the 95 or 96 vintage. The current stuff is not as good.
No DST in QLD. We’ll know the election result an hour earlier than youse blokes.
Swan’s shopping tips is cringe inducing! It’s painfully simplistic.
Apparently we can save money by weighing our vegetables. And get this – we should read a variety of catalogues to see what’s on sale.
Dear oh dear. What were they thinking?
LOL @ Graeme using ‘youse’. People in Melb knew I was from QLD when I moved down in 99 because I said youse alot. Mind you when I came back from the USA I said ‘yall’ alot too.
I just wonder whether all of this celebration here about an impending ALP win is a bit premature.
We’ve already had a few twists & turns in this election (I’m sure a few ALP supporters here felt a bit of a sinking feeling in the gut after the polls last week, wondering whether a comeback was underway).
By looking at the posts here its easy to get a feeling of a false sense of security.
I just wonder what the combined effect of an interest rate rise, scare campaign on recessions etc might come up with. A lot of people are easily frightened, so will they stick with what they know?
Oh my – David Speers on Agenda is getting aggro with Nick Minchin over the whole ‘interest rates will always be lower under us than under Labor’! “Yes, but that’s completely hypothetical….” Speers is interrupting him and everything – MSM is truly turning
Yep Speers had joined the good guys. he is giving Minchin a bollocking
Another Howard hugger bites the dust and goes down crying like a crocodile.
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/news/queensland/i-was-a-scalp-for-work-choices/2007/10/25/1192941221876.html
Feel sorry for JH?
Just imagine what he would do if he won this election.
Still feel sorry?
Triffid (423). Pretend I am Kevin Rudd. I advise you to check before shaking my hand.
“A recession, John? You started a recession? You and Costello started a recession. You [devolves into a string of obscenities]“.
The MSM should be sticking it into the LNP. We are now getting a series of interest inflation and rate rises. The surpluses have been totally wasted. They have cut spending on Education, Health, R&D and let infrastructure fall behind. What are they good for?
All they had to do is rake in the cash from the Keating/China economy and spend it wisely for the future. Talk about wrecking a rainbow.
They deserve to get a bollocking for wasting the good times.
Kina Keating left no cash what he left was 96billion dollars of debt which made us unable to provide adequate fundings to education and health in our first term…
JOM @ 416
While 99% of us will cringe at that vid (as I did), it’s exactly the type of story that ACA/Today Tonight runs about once a month and millions watch and nod their heads.
So not such a silly thing as you might imagine.
I think you are all getting a bit off topic.
This Galaxy Senate poll is right on the money. My crystal ball predicts a Coalition majority in both houses.
Glen, you believe the Liberals too much.
Adjusted for inflation, the debt Hawke/Keating inherited was much LARGER than the debt they left behind.
And which treasurer did they inherit from again?
Rates Analysts: few Australians care about who was treasurer over 24 years ago. The key number that every knows is 17% under Keating.
Seems the Nationals who have been asleep at the wheel for almost 12 years have awoken with a fright and seen the result of porkbarrelling their electorates.
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/news/national/rate-rise-could-break-farmers/2007/10/25/1192941209195.html
Will,
I am a relatively recent convert to reds. Just within the last 6 months or so. I wouldn’t know a good one from a bad one at this point
But that having been said, for what it is worth, this is what I have: De Bortoli Sacred Hill Shiraz Cabernet circa 2006. It is a NSW wine bottled in Bilbul. It has 4 stickers on it – 2006/7 Wine Estate of the Year, 2007 Quaff Winery of the Year, Stuart Gregor 2007 Winery of the Year & Rutherglen Wine Show 2006 Bronze Medal. I have 2 of them.
interesting:
the legacy of Keating vs. the legacy of Howard
Howard is fighting former ALP leaders as well as the current one, who had nothing to do with any of it, so has no oar in this fight. The end of the Howard era is the end of the Keating era?
Ha and they had 13 years and they couldnt manage Commonwealth debt that is an F in my books besides Rates Analyst you believe the ALP too much for Howard and Fraser had to deal with the mess that was left to them by Whitlam and his loans affairs et al…
Matt, I suppose ACA&TT’s credibility is high too?
I look forward to Chaser lampooning Swanny. The segment will be what have we learned from Swanny this week?
Rates Analyst what was the state of Australia’s finances after the Whitlam Government?
why they’re fighting with oars, though I don’t really know. Maybe there are otters involved, maybe they got hijacked on a riverbank
Madame Ann Ann 434 Even better remembered is the 22% when Howard was Treasurer in the Fraser Government.
Rates Analyst -I remember that (ain’t we old). Howard’s deficit was 9.3 billion. And those were pre-float, 1983 dollars.
May be good news for Labor with the punters doing what they normally do; vote differently in the senate to the lower house so nobody gets a chance to go feral like Howard did in the past three years. if this is the case then maybe thoughts about a soft Labor vote are just that, soft. I know I am drawing more long bows than there were at Agincourt but does anyone else have any ideas?
Glen was compaining that Howard/Costello inherited a huge debt. I was merely pointing out a factual inconsistency.
True everyone know about 17% under Keating.
Everyone will remember that Hoawrd promised to “keep interest rates low” too. We’re watching history being written here Ann Ann, enjoy it!!
Political Donations by Pratt.
It is an Alan Ramsey article, you’ll need to read the enitre article to get the gist.
http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2007/10/12/1191696170408.html?page=fullpage#contentSwap2
Keating …..love it.
He accused Mr Howard of presiding over Australia’s last wages explosion in 1981-82, saying: “He was in the tinderbox with all the TNT around him, looking for a new wages policy, and he lit the match. Where am I? Boom!”
http://www.theage.com.au/news/federalelection2007news/costellos-10-years-in-a-hammock/2007/10/25/1192941222977.html
I wonder if any child is still in poverty? Glen what do you think?
443,
Could lead to heaps of Labor voters doing what I am doing and voting Greens in the Senate. Not because we have any problem voting Labor in the Senate, but it is more pragmatic. The Greens will work with Labor and they have a very real chance of getting enough seats to make a majority with Labors votes. More of a chance than Labor getting an outright majority themselves.
I say whatever it takes to boot the Coalition out
:):)
Nobody gives a fat rat’s what Keating did, and I am very sure that not very many people are voting because of Howard’s stint as treasurer in the seventies. I am so sure that he did something more recent that overshadows it…
the olympics? wait, it’ll come to me. Was he in The Matrix?
Reading, listening and watching the MSM, I detect a turning away from supporting the Libs. Many MSM journos are starting to ask the questions of Howard and Costello that they should have been asking way back to Children Overboard. I feel this trend will continue with a fair amount of hostility towards the Libs as time goes on. The interest rate rise in two weeks will probably make the most of MSM turn feral and the Libs will be at risk of catching rabies.
The Brian Burke Scandal has severely damaged Rudd’s saint like image. The Coalition will win by 10 seats! Lol!
Glen, 3.3.2007
Wonderful campaign pledge by Hawke back in 1990 lol fool…
If Rudd does win he’s more going to be like Whitlam 3 years and Scullin 3 years…the ALP will implode and their majority wont be large so the Coalition could easily come back if it loses…
But i believe the Coalition will hold on because Rudd has no substance case in point he went to a school yesterday to high five students and thats it shows how PR staged this ear wax eater is…
John, their target demographic clearly rate them as credible because they keep tuning in.
..and I’m sure Swanny would have to admit that he’s fair game after something like that. Maybe The Chaser can do a ‘What politicans have learned from current affairs this week?’
PJK’s (partial) rehabilitation has been one of the sweetest things about this current election climate. Why didn’t Beazley and Latham get into this stuff? Was Keating still too much on the nose? God I’ve missed him. “Costello got hit in the *rse with a rainbow” -classic.
Remember…MSM journos have mortgages too!
Swan has been doing the supermarket stuff for years.
Costello Hasn’t been to a supermarket for years.
Sorry I’ve got tabithaitis
Very blinkered view of the press coming from you lot
What about this from the Age:
“Labor Leader Kevin Rudd has been called a “bastard” during a visit to a senior citizens club in Devonport, Tasmania.
Mr Rudd, campaigning in the marginal seat of Braddon with Labor candidate Sid Sidebottom, visited a club celebrating its 43rd birthday today.
At the end of the choral performance at the club, choir member David Vowles walked over to confront a seated Mr Rudd and called him a bastard.
“You spoiled the party. You ignorant bastards,” Mr Vowles said.
Ouch!
Coalition, still, 78 seats.
Pride comes before the fall people.
hey Glen,
did you just entertain the possibility of an ALP win? (”If Rudd wins…”)
holy hell, they really are f*cked.
Matt, I agree that their demographic clearly rate them but Swanny telling people how to shop? Next he’ll be looking for bargains in Chappel Street and the only red they sell there is red dresses.
Glen “Me-Too” doesn’t quite stack up against “Crash-through or Crash” as a philosophy.
I doubt that Rudd will be Whitlam-like in behaviour once’s he’s in office.
Whitlam-like as a saviour, conceivably…..
I would be full of hubris like Swing Lowe and Nostro if i didnt entertain the possibility of those scum bags winning the election…then you could genuinely call me a fool for being in denial…obviously if the polls dont move we are sunk but i believe they’ll change like this good poll result for the Coalition would keep its Senate majority intact…
The accordion player got the snarks, so what? He should be in a zydeco band or locked up.
so, Glen
what’s your worst case scenario? I mean, besides an ALP win?
John of Melb
It might be good to try and get a bit of context into your economic perspective . Whitlam’s govt ran face first into the world financial crisis of the early 70s – the oil crisis of 1973 and the scourge of stagflation which hit every western economy at the time. Whitlams last budget under bill Haden was a good one for the times and certainly in retrospect looked alright next to the dogs breakfasts served up by the Rodent under fraser in the subsequent government.
The mythology of competent liberal economic management is one of the greatest frauds served on the aust people in recent times. Howard and his gimp costello have coasted on the back of the hard yards made by hawke and keating. Keating (before you again start quoting economic figures out of context) had to steer the economy through a world recession. Go back to the early 80 if you want to see how the liberals and Howard performed without the proceeds of a global economic surge and resources boom…
When the rodent took over in 96 the australian economy was 4 years into a growth cycle, had surged in productivity, had broken the back of inflationary wage blow outs, had inflation down next to nothing and interest rates low and trending down…
No more of this liberal economic management myth. Labor will take office, knock costello out of his ‘hammock’ and in line with history make all the substantive reforms to push australia into the future…
I was just thinking a good Coalition add would be:
Scene 1.) Kevin Rudd saying he’s a financial conservative then..
Scene 2.) Kevin in Parliament saying how the GST is going to ruin us all
Scene 3.) Kevin Rudd saying he is a financial conservative then..
Scene 4.) Kevin in Parliament opposing tax cuts
etc
Then final scene Kevin warps into a Chameleon.
Then the writing in red of courese, “you shall know them by there deeds!”
Same goes for Swanny.
Hey I though it was good
Labor majority of less than 5 that is my worst case scenario…my absolute worst case scenario is a majority of 10+ then it really will be 2-3 terms for Labor…
I couldnt stand having that scumbag Swan being the Treasurer and that smug bastard Rudd running the country besmirching the good record of the Howard era…
“if the polls dont move we are sunk ”
461 Glen you’ve being waiting all year for the polls to move and they have moved monumentally. How did they move without you noticing?
Mr Voles admits he is a long time Liberal voter and would not have reacted the same way if John Howard had attended.
Silly old coot.
457 Jim “You spoiled the party. You ignorant bastards,â€
LOL, hasn’t Howard and Costello been saying that all year?
Sean thanks for clearing that up but I was still in my Dad’s pants when Whitlam was in power. I wasn’t criticising Whitlam I was simply asking what the state of finances was after the Whitlam Government.
True Hawke/Keating reforms were good I’m not criticising but the Liberals did vote with the then Government and did support them with economic reform. Why didn’t Rudd?
HELLO ………………… now you understand how we all have bloody felt for 11+ years
Never let hubris get in the way of a good red.
That would look glorious on TV.
Glen: interesting that, because I see a lot of Coalition voters are actually pretty protective of Hoaward’s legacy. Let me run an idea past you.
1. John Howard looks defensive, because the Liberals aren’t running the right campaign against Rudd. Rudd’s so damn nice, and the contrast it throws up is jarring
2. This antogonises people
3. This contributes to turning 80 ALP seats into 90 ALP seats. The panic this creates contributes into coalition disunity, and this turns 90 seats into 95 seats
what do you reckon?
470 JoM: Didn’t Howard oppose the current mandatory super when it came in? Pretty sure something I read recently reported that.
465 JOM Glad you didn’t try to tell us that productivity is better under the Tories.
http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/7d12b0f6763c78caca257061001cc588/99a945847b683d6aca257211000f75b0!OpenDocument#PRODUCTIVITY%20GROWTH%20CYCLES
Just in:
Shock! Horror Probe! Rudd attacked by pensioner!
Kicker: Big guns join Lib campaign: Hyancith says she will fight to end to restore worm
MTC
John of Melbourne
I was on the steps of Parliament House when Gough said May well we say God save the Queen …
I have maintained my rage ever since. If you care to really look at Australian political history you will see that ALL the major reforms that you now take for granted were initiated by Labor.
Hawke,Keating and the unions broke the back of inflation, now we have the fear and smear bunch blaming everyone but themselves.
Glen! you’ve got your dander up! Been hitting your father’s liquor cabinet, have you? Well… you’re going to be in