As reported by the Sydney Morning Herald (link broken at the time of writing), GetUp! has commissioned its third national poll of Senate voting intention from Galaxy. This is a highly dubious exercise which is producing very strange results. Make whatever you like from the news that Labor’s vote has slumped in the last month from 39 per cent to 33 per cent. The sample size was 1003; Family First and the Democrats were both on 2 per cent.
| ALP | LNP | GRN | |
| October 20/21 | 33 | 38 | 11 |
| September 8/9 | 39 | 35 | 10 |
| June 23/24 | 38 | 34 | 13 |
| 2004 Election | 35.0 | 45.0 | 7.7 |
UPDATE: GetUp! press release here. Maddeningly, “other/don’t know” has been rolled into one.
707 Comments
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The Brian Burke Scandal has severely damaged Rudd’s saint like image. The Coalition will win by 10 seats! Lol!
Glen, 3.3.2007
Wonderful campaign pledge by Hawke back in 1990 lol fool…
If Rudd does win he’s more going to be like Whitlam 3 years and Scullin 3 years…the ALP will implode and their majority wont be large so the Coalition could easily come back if it loses…
But i believe the Coalition will hold on because Rudd has no substance case in point he went to a school yesterday to high five students and thats it shows how PR staged this ear wax eater is…
John, their target demographic clearly rate them as credible because they keep tuning in.
..and I’m sure Swanny would have to admit that he’s fair game after something like that. Maybe The Chaser can do a ‘What politicans have learned from current affairs this week?’
PJK’s (partial) rehabilitation has been one of the sweetest things about this current election climate. Why didn’t Beazley and Latham get into this stuff? Was Keating still too much on the nose? God I’ve missed him. “Costello got hit in the *rse with a rainbow” -classic.
Remember…MSM journos have mortgages too!
Swan has been doing the supermarket stuff for years.
Costello Hasn’t been to a supermarket for years.
Sorry I’ve got tabithaitis
Very blinkered view of the press coming from you lot
What about this from the Age:
“Labor Leader Kevin Rudd has been called a “bastard” during a visit to a senior citizens club in Devonport, Tasmania.
Mr Rudd, campaigning in the marginal seat of Braddon with Labor candidate Sid Sidebottom, visited a club celebrating its 43rd birthday today.
At the end of the choral performance at the club, choir member David Vowles walked over to confront a seated Mr Rudd and called him a bastard.
“You spoiled the party. You ignorant bastards,” Mr Vowles said.
Ouch!
Coalition, still, 78 seats.
Pride comes before the fall people.
hey Glen,
did you just entertain the possibility of an ALP win? (”If Rudd wins…”)
holy hell, they really are f*cked.
Matt, I agree that their demographic clearly rate them but Swanny telling people how to shop? Next he’ll be looking for bargains in Chappel Street and the only red they sell there is red dresses.
Glen “Me-Too” doesn’t quite stack up against “Crash-through or Crash” as a philosophy.
I doubt that Rudd will be Whitlam-like in behaviour once’s he’s in office.
Whitlam-like as a saviour, conceivably…..
I would be full of hubris like Swing Lowe and Nostro if i didnt entertain the possibility of those scum bags winning the election…then you could genuinely call me a fool for being in denial…obviously if the polls dont move we are sunk but i believe they’ll change like this good poll result for the Coalition would keep its Senate majority intact…
The accordion player got the snarks, so what? He should be in a zydeco band or locked up.
so, Glen
what’s your worst case scenario? I mean, besides an ALP win?
John of Melb
It might be good to try and get a bit of context into your economic perspective . Whitlam’s govt ran face first into the world financial crisis of the early 70s – the oil crisis of 1973 and the scourge of stagflation which hit every western economy at the time. Whitlams last budget under bill Haden was a good one for the times and certainly in retrospect looked alright next to the dogs breakfasts served up by the Rodent under fraser in the subsequent government.
The mythology of competent liberal economic management is one of the greatest frauds served on the aust people in recent times. Howard and his gimp costello have coasted on the back of the hard yards made by hawke and keating. Keating (before you again start quoting economic figures out of context) had to steer the economy through a world recession. Go back to the early 80 if you want to see how the liberals and Howard performed without the proceeds of a global economic surge and resources boom…
When the rodent took over in 96 the australian economy was 4 years into a growth cycle, had surged in productivity, had broken the back of inflationary wage blow outs, had inflation down next to nothing and interest rates low and trending down…
No more of this liberal economic management myth. Labor will take office, knock costello out of his ‘hammock’ and in line with history make all the substantive reforms to push australia into the future…
I was just thinking a good Coalition add would be:
Scene 1.) Kevin Rudd saying he’s a financial conservative then..
Scene 2.) Kevin in Parliament saying how the GST is going to ruin us all
Scene 3.) Kevin Rudd saying he is a financial conservative then..
Scene 4.) Kevin in Parliament opposing tax cuts
etc
Then final scene Kevin warps into a Chameleon.
Then the writing in red of courese, “you shall know them by there deeds!”
Same goes for Swanny.
Hey I though it was good
Labor majority of less than 5 that is my worst case scenario…my absolute worst case scenario is a majority of 10+ then it really will be 2-3 terms for Labor…
I couldnt stand having that scumbag Swan being the Treasurer and that smug bastard Rudd running the country besmirching the good record of the Howard era…
“if the polls dont move we are sunk ”
461 Glen you’ve being waiting all year for the polls to move and they have moved monumentally. How did they move without you noticing?
Mr Voles admits he is a long time Liberal voter and would not have reacted the same way if John Howard had attended.
Silly old coot.
457 Jim “You spoiled the party. You ignorant bastards,â€
LOL, hasn’t Howard and Costello been saying that all year?
Sean thanks for clearing that up but I was still in my Dad’s pants when Whitlam was in power. I wasn’t criticising Whitlam I was simply asking what the state of finances was after the Whitlam Government.
True Hawke/Keating reforms were good I’m not criticising but the Liberals did vote with the then Government and did support them with economic reform. Why didn’t Rudd?
HELLO ………………… now you understand how we all have bloody felt for 11+ years
Never let hubris get in the way of a good red.
That would look glorious on TV.
Glen: interesting that, because I see a lot of Coalition voters are actually pretty protective of Hoaward’s legacy. Let me run an idea past you.
1. John Howard looks defensive, because the Liberals aren’t running the right campaign against Rudd. Rudd’s so damn nice, and the contrast it throws up is jarring
2. This antogonises people
3. This contributes to turning 80 ALP seats into 90 ALP seats. The panic this creates contributes into coalition disunity, and this turns 90 seats into 95 seats
what do you reckon?
470 JoM: Didn’t Howard oppose the current mandatory super when it came in? Pretty sure something I read recently reported that.
465 JOM Glad you didn’t try to tell us that productivity is better under the Tories.
http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/7d12b0f6763c78caca257061001cc588/99a945847b683d6aca257211000f75b0!OpenDocument#PRODUCTIVITY%20GROWTH%20CYCLES
Just in:
Shock! Horror Probe! Rudd attacked by pensioner!
Kicker: Big guns join Lib campaign: Hyancith says she will fight to end to restore worm
MTC
John of Melbourne
I was on the steps of Parliament House when Gough said May well we say God save the Queen …
I have maintained my rage ever since. If you care to really look at Australian political history you will see that ALL the major reforms that you now take for granted were initiated by Labor.
Hawke,Keating and the unions broke the back of inflation, now we have the fear and smear bunch blaming everyone but themselves.
Glen! you’ve got your dander up! Been hitting your father’s liquor cabinet, have you? Well… you’re going to be in for a hiding when he gets home… Now apologise to all these nice people for using bad language and go to your room, right now!
hey stupid question
how does the election of an ALP government affect the republican debate?
Anthony Baxter yes he did.
Rates Analyst what are your thoughts on Super?
Mike_f so true! The Libs should just ignore him that would work.
480,
It means that we will have a referendum within Rudd’s first term (unless he does a DD next year, don’t think it will be quite that early).
John
I was 4 when Whitlam got voted out but its in the history books…
The ‘reform’ you mention were barely reforms – the gst was just a low order administrative change in the collection of tax which was regressive and many believe completely inefficient. Opposing it was not a crime, just like opposing workchoices isn’t a crime. Howard really hasn’t done anything on the scale of Hawke and keating…Not only the lefties but also the true neo-libs have been disappointed. See the scathing editorial by the GG a couple of months ago on Howards economic credentials. History isn’t going to be kind to him…He’s making an arse of himself splashing money about left right and centre and as Alex has said the MSM is already starting to move against him..
Ha Ha Ha
The choir was singing “The Carnival is Over” when the old coot chucked a wobbly today.
John Rocket i dont see the difference in calling Labor a bunch of scumbags and you calling our Prime Minister a rodent…so says Glen!
mike_f: I believe Rudd said he would open up the debate again, and put a plebiscite out asking if we want a republic and then organise a model to be put to the people. I don’t think we would see it as a high priority for either party.
Glen,
Still so smart you can’t even find the comma key on your keyboard. How does anyone as uneducated as you, who can’t even punctuate, expect us to believe you know anything about economics. You’re just a school boy pretending to be an adult.
Paul K my response to you is simple.
Your Mother!
So says Glen.
Have the Libs, apart from the ill fated Fightback, ever articulated a forward vision/plan for Aust?
I think not.
Have watched every election since 72 and can’t ever recall anything from the libs during a campaign other than pork, scare and smear. Ideology and fear is all they’ve ever had.
Will: “BTW, how do you think the council amalgamations affect the region? I know Townsville has always wanted it, but Thuringowa has opposed it (which dates back to the Dan Gleason times).”
Southerners don’t understand this but people in Thuringowa have for at least the last 15 years considered themselves part of Townsville.
The amalgamations have been well recieved here, unlike in other almagamations in Queensland, Thuringowa is not a rural area merging with the city…. Townsville has expanded so much in the last 20 years and basically swallowed up most of the Thuringowa shire so Thuringowa is PART of the city. I would expect if a vote was taken here it would be about a 90% approval.
In the signage front, Peter Lindsay has been putting shipping containers two high around the city and then hanging his signs off them. Despite being an eye sore there is the issue of cyclones sending them into someone house.
In my opinion Colbran will win this seat. WHY? Because he’s a high profile candidate… the last person they ran here for Labor was a nobody. Colbran has the benefit of being the owner of every single McDonalds store in Townsville and has also been very high profile with their advertising. Housing prices are also going through the roof up here, so that will play a factor as well.
I’m all for the republic issue put back on the table.
As the constitution has to be re-written I don’t trust any side of politics to do this at the moment.
Maybe there is an alternative?
Yes, Glen when you’re a grown up, you’ll be able to use grown-up words. But when you’re little – you use little boy words. Now. Apologise to these nice people and go to your room, please!
Sean I saw that editorial in The Australian, if memory serves me correctly it also went on to say it wasn’t an endoresment of Labor either.
I think Super is a great idea. Howard has made the taxation a little perverse, but the idea is sound.
One of my pet ideas actually is that now is the right time to increase compulsory super to 15% (like Keating always intended).
The question facing the PM over the next few years (either one, but hopefully Rudd) will be: how do I give tax cuts without causing spending because spending would trigger inflation…. In principle you need to give a tax cut that people can’t spend.
The solution is Super – give tax cuts that offset an increase in compulsory super contribution, et voila! Take home pay is essentially stable (if you do the numbers right) and there is no pressure on inflation.
Yeah, Rupert likes to be thought of as the kingmaker. Whatever chance JWH still has will be snuffed out when Rup publicly endorses Labor just before the election.
The sooner the Feds legislate to prevent foreigners controlling our media the better, IMO, but I won’t hold my breath.
FWIW, My predictions:
1. Labor 91, Coalition 56, Ind 3.
2. Leader of the Opposition: The Smirk, Shadow Treasurer: Lexy; but neither will contest the 2010 election.
3. I doubt JWH will still be around come 2010. Without the trappings of PM, and shunned by the party he’ll pine away. Within a decade or so he’ll be as much remembered as that other great Lib do nothing, McMahon.
491,
Bob Hawke suggested a sleeper clause in that we would approve the republic but that it wouldn’t come into play until the current monarch passes on.
In otherwords, there would be NO King Charles
……
Don’t know how the final thing would be written but I think that Hawke’s idea is a nice compromise that would bring all of the “like a Republic but also like the Queen” people to the table …..
Qld AMA report (released today) says the state has been “short changed” by $600 million by the Federal Govt.
Pesky unions again.
Rudd and Howard aren’t running the same campaign. Rudd’s using the contrast in style, and hes pulling Howard to bits. It’s really jarring; it seems like it’s all tunnel and no light.
Anyway, there’s no way to 180 on this. What I can say is that the next LNP government is probably going to look a lot, lot different to the current. Australians don’t change governments in marginal elections. 1975 was not close. 1983 was not close. 1996 was not close. And the government stays changed for ages.
‘Cause now I’m thinking that when it’s over the Liberals have some serious thinking to do. And I’m thinking…maybe if they acted less like they’re fighting history, it would take the ALP share of seats from 95 down to 85, and give them a fighting chance a few years on.
Thanks RA, Am I right in saying the idea is increasing employer contribution to 15% so everybody gets a 6% pay rise?
Mr Voles – ““You spoiled the party. You ignorant bastards.â€
Glen – “I couldnt stand having that scumbag Swan being the Treasurer and that smug bastard Rudd running the country besmirching the good record of the Howard era…”
Apart from being Liberal supporters, do you think they are related? Same bad mouth.
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