As reported by the Sydney Morning Herald (link broken at the time of writing), GetUp! has commissioned its third national poll of Senate voting intention from Galaxy. This is a highly dubious exercise which is producing very strange results. Make whatever you like from the news that Labor’s vote has slumped in the last month from 39 per cent to 33 per cent. The sample size was 1003; Family First and the Democrats were both on 2 per cent.
| ALP | LNP | GRN | |
| October 20/21 | 33 | 38 | 11 |
| September 8/9 | 39 | 35 | 10 |
| June 23/24 | 38 | 34 | 13 |
| 2004 Election | 35.0 | 45.0 | 7.7 |
UPDATE: GetUp! press release here. Maddeningly, “other/don’t know” has been rolled into one.
707 Comments
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LaborVoter: I lived in Kirwan, just off Charles St and about 100m from the Townsville border. I’ve always thought myself being from Townsville. Good to hear the great divide no longer exists.
As for Colbran, yeah I think he’s the right choice. They need a business operator to beat Lindsay and Colbran is no Johnie come lately to the ALP either, he has been a member for ages.
I find it amusing that Glen has somehow made me the Labor equivalent of Nostro (see post 461). On the one hand, I am proud of this characterisation, as it shows that I have gotten under Glen’s skin. On the other hand, I take exception to this, as I am not a delusional nut who thinks that Rudd can do no wrong.
The fact that I predicted Labor to win with 81 seats (majority of 14) – a fairly moderate prediction by this site’s standard is a testimony to this. Glen, I had some respect for you having the courage to stand by your convictions on this site, but I now see you for what you are – a raving “rightard” who accuses anyone of hubris when they express optimism of a Labor victory.
452
Glen Says:
October 25th, 2007 at 4:43 pm
Wonderful campaign pledge by Hawke back in 1990 lol fool…
If Rudd does win he’s more going to be like Whitlam 3 years and Scullin 3 years…the ALP will implode and their majority wont be large so the Coalition could easily come back if it loses…
…….
Sour grapes, Glen.
There is an old truism about politics: oppostions don’t win elections, governments lose them. This is certainly in this election, whatever the merits of Rudd & Labor. The coalition failed to take steps for renewal of leadership and policy; it broke its promises to the public; it has failed to respond to the challenges of the day; and it has finally come face to face with the consequences of failure. The government can blame no-one but itself for its descent from office.
434 Madame Ann Ann Interest rates where 22% when John Howard was treasurer.
If, and that’s a very big if at the moment, Howard wins Bennelong there will be 3 by-elections in February.
Howard, Costello and Dolly will resign immediately and never sit in the new parliament.
If they retain their seats Abbot & Hockey will stay, primarily because they couldn’t earn a living at anything else.
Is Madame Ann Ann’s last name Barrie by any chance???
Let It End
Costello will stay for the same reason you gave for Abbott and Hockey.
If Rudd wins does that mean all the Premiers will be subserviant to Rudd?
Whilst I agree it is far too early to be popping corks, I have a VERY nice bottle of 94 Clonakilla Shiraz that has been laying down pretty much since the Rodent took residence at Kirribilli.
http://www.clonakilla.com.au/reviews.html
The first sign of tears from the old coot and I could be looking for a bottle opener.
JoM
No, read the constitution.
Hockey will be OK this Xmas season as he’ll get a job playing Santa Claus.
John of Melb. yeah like Kennett was subservient to Howard. I remember that in 87, 98 , 99, Kennett was almost the defacto opposition leader of the nation.
I understand that Ruawake but if all major Governments are Labor surely there will be a concensus that someone has to call the shots after all its the one party.
Paul K
Only if he signs an AWA.
The other day Howard said to some seniors “never trust Labor with money”. That is Howard’s and the Liberals essential pitch, shorn of all the dressing up. While it is ostensibly intended to refer to Labor running budget deficits, I think it operates at another, dog-whistling level. It is class warfare argued in a subtle way. The reasoning intended to be invoked in the minds of the electorate is something like:
1. Labor are trade unionists (hence the 70% ads).
2. Trade unionists are working class people who could never make it to the respectable middle class (the use of the word “thugs” ties in neatly here).
3. Working class people never have much money, unlike the respectable middle class.
4. The respectable middle class are used to having money, and hence know how to handle it.
5. The working class are not used to having money, and hence don’t how to handle it. If they get their hands on any, they will waste it.
6 The Liberals are the respectable middle class.
7. By reason of the above, never trust Labor with money. Trust the Liberals.
Maybe I am reading too much into it, but listen closely for the “you can’t trust Labor with money” line in the campaign.
I’ve got three bottles of Mello Yello… been vintaging since 1992. This could be a time to unscrew one… but I’m not sure.
513 John of Melbourne Maybe we might have consensus and get a lot done.
John
Has any state premier ever done what the federal party says? There is a myth that the Labor party makes federal policy, it is the Federal Parliamentary members who have ALWAYS made federal policy and the states have ALWAYS made state policy.
If Joe keeps on getting fatter he can get the job as the “Michelin Man”
yeah, look, Glen, that’s it. I’m not a die-hard supporter of anyone, but I do know some things about elections. Number one is that people in Australia are very, very angry. John Howard shouldn’t have called a five week election: he should have gone with the minimum timeframe, because a campaign feels like a very long time when it’s on, and it dominates the headlines and reminds people how angry they are. You can’t attack the most popular person in Australian politics. It’s like throwing punches at Stirling Mortlock – you want how muich sympathy? You are not Richie McCaw. You are on Australia’s side, and now you realise they aren’t on yours.
If I were Howard, I would just go dark everywhere save the bush – save for the places where my die hardiest supporters are. Run sixty local marginal seat campaigns and to blazes with the national campaign, because (1) it’s a failure and (2) because when it goes to poo, you’re going to need your grassroots a lot more than your national office anyway. I would talk in soft platitudes about the things that we like about Australia and the nebulous things that we would like to see. Maybe frame it so you think workchoices could do with fine tuning, maybe a comission. In other words, concede defeat without conceding defeat. It’ll save you a few seats, maybe.
Because, right now, it’s a hiding to nothing.
He could always try out for a Sumo Wrestling Team.
Chris, Ruawake that’s fine but when Rudd says lets end the blame game who will be responsible for every Labor government?
John oM
Exactly, don’t you think it will be a good idea to get rid of the “All the States fault” frog poo?
any chance the exclusive brethren may pack up and head overseas. If the ALP wins, I aniticipate the ATO may have a mandate to crack some heads.
ICWFZ @ 515. I think you’re absolutely correct. The Libs are, and always have been, the true class warriors. They can’t stand those uppity working class folk having the audacity to stick together and tell the boss to shove it. So if you do, you’re a thug. On the other hand, if you’re a boss, you can march in to a business, and tell the kids (casual employees, that is) to sign the AWA (which of course strips out penalties and o/t payments in return for about a 20c per hour increase) if they want to keep their job. Of course, that’s fair. As they say in various places I’ve been lately, ‘It’s WorkChoices, stupid!’
I am so looking forward to 24/11. Bring on the Margaret River Shiraz.
Is an expansion of the size of the house/senate likely any time soon?
ruawake, your right he isn’t any good at anything but I don’t believe his ego could handle being seen as a failed 12 yr sidekick flunkie to JWH.
Ruawake I think Labor will have a real problem with very government being Labor. If there’s a problem there can be no buck passing, being held accountable to everything and everyone will be hard.
John o M – wouldn’t it be a GOOD thing if governments were accountable? Maybe the Libs might even win the odd state election!
ahh, JoM, you’re showing your youth. You’re too used to Liberals being in power, you can’t clearly remember a time when there was a government which wanted to do good things, make things better for most. A government which didn’t always look at how to buck pass, or evade responsibility. Mr. Howard has done a great disservice to the young.
Imagine the FoI problems the Libs will have if they lose the election.
Got to head out for a few hours see you all soon
I was just listening to ABC radio in Sydney.
Both Stephen Maine and the editor of the Daily Telegraph are declaring Howard is gone, and an interest rate rise early in November will cause a total meltdown of the Coalition.
I don’t think so, convincing Australians they need more politicians is not an easy task.
ShowsOn: what about making the territories 3 at a time every two years? I don’t think that’s unreasonable.
every three years, I mean.
James: The easiest way to expand the senate would be to grant statehood to the ACT or NT. Not likely to happen – and if NT got 6 senators, they’d each be representing 34,000 people. That’s compared to 1.1M or so for each NSW senator.
When the Daily Telegraph starts running stories like this, you know the coalition is in trouble…
“MATT and Joanne Arnold are looking to expand their family and their home – but their dream of more space could be crushed if interest rates go up again.
And that is a terrifying prospect for Prime Minister John Howard come election day.
The Arnolds, who live in Kellyville with sons Matthew and Samuel, are just one of thousands of families trying to get ahead.
As The Daily Telegraph first revealed in the lead-up to the federal election campaign (The Daily Telegraph, August 9), Mr Howard is likely to bear the brunt of anger from families battling to pay off a mortgage. While Mr Arnold declined to reveal who would get his vote on November 24, he made it clear his faith in politicians had been tested once too often.
“They’re pretty much all the same whatever they say or do,” he said.
While an interest rate rise does not affect the PM in his waterfront Kirribilli home, to families paying off a mortgage every dollar counts.
“It’s a little bit that comes out of your wallet every month that could be better spent on things like the kids or the family,” Mr Arnold said.
“Every time it goes up it puts pressure on the household.”"
I thought 6 senators was only a constitutional requirement for the ORIGINAL states (i.e. those at federation). If NT becomes a state it wouldn’t automatically get 6.
anthony baxter
That is not dissimilar to Tasmania. That’s why Keating called them unrepresentative swill.
When Keating made that statement, does anyone remember what the Senate was blocking that he wanted passed?
Isn’t Nostro going to denouce them?
” Can’t be true. Obviously they’re just Communists. Maybe they’re even in a Union. “
Howard Hater Says: I was just listening to ABC radio in Sydney.
Both Stephen Maine and the editor of the Daily Telegraph are declaring Howard is gone.
Yep, the changing of the guard in the MSM is becoming quite evident. I truly believe they will increasingly become openly hostile towards Howard as the campaign wears on.
ACA is talking about the EB tonight at 6:30
How many of you are going to get totally pissed on election night?
I really enjoy sitting at the internet and watching the results as they start coming through, being an amateur psephologist.. I think I’ll stay reasonably sober until the Rodent concedes, then I’ll really get stuck into the grog.
ACA doing another story on the “Elusive” Brethren tonight…….”are they going to hijack the election” was ch9 comment.
Today the likelyhood of an interest rate rise on November 7th has moved from 83 to 87%
http://www.asx.com.au/sfe/targetratetracker.htm
Test
Paul K: Stephen Maine is no friend of Howard. He was getting stuck into Costello too over the tax cuts. Another 4 weeks of more Liberals turning on the Rodent and this will be a bloodbath. Could it be Fraser might come out publicly and advocate a vote for Rudd?
William,
I have posted a comment here twice today and neither has appeared.
Is there something wrong with it?
The first time I assumed that I had stuffed up somewhere but the repost also failed to appear.
I am now assuming that for some reason or other it has been rejected. Please let me know what the problem is so I might correct it.
The Chaser are going to do two election specials:
http://www.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/story/0,22049,22641529-5006002,00.html
I hope they do a 2 hour show before the ABC’s election count coverage starts.
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