As reported by the Sydney Morning Herald (link broken at the time of writing), GetUp! has commissioned its third national poll of Senate voting intention from Galaxy. This is a highly dubious exercise which is producing very strange results. Make whatever you like from the news that Labor’s vote has slumped in the last month from 39 per cent to 33 per cent. The sample size was 1003; Family First and the Democrats were both on 2 per cent.
| ALP | LNP | GRN | |
| October 20/21 | 33 | 38 | 11 |
| September 8/9 | 39 | 35 | 10 |
| June 23/24 | 38 | 34 | 13 |
| 2004 Election | 35.0 | 45.0 | 7.7 |
UPDATE: GetUp! press release here. Maddeningly, “other/don’t know” has been rolled into one.
707 Comments
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My 40 seats the ALP win gain
Cowper
Wide Bay
McEwen
Paterson
Sturt
Forde
La Trobe
Solomon
Page
Fisher
Bass
Corangamite
McMillan
Deakin
Dobell
Ryan
Boothby
Leichhardt
Dawson
Bennelong
Braddon
Stirling
Bowman
Dickson
Eden-Monaro
Hasluck
Lindsay
Hinkler
Wentworth
Flynn
Petrie
Longman
Parramatta
Herbert
Makin
Blair
Wakefield
Kingston
Moreton
Bonner
Paladin @ 188,
If Hanshin didn’t run in Sturt, the ALP would have fixed her up in a more winnable marginal seat (like Wakefield or Makin). They want her in parliament and wouldn’t risk her as a carpet-bagger in a seat like Boothby.
That said, if Hanshin doesn’t win in Sturt (and I think she’s still got a decent chance there), she’ll probably get dropped into a safe seat next election or given a safe spot on the ALP senate ticket next time around.
The rout is on!
Continued good results in the polls for Labor have the conservative press finally seeing the light.
The are beginning the hunt for someone to blame – and it’s still four weeks to election night.
If Labor’s lead continues in upcoming polls, or gets better, and the nerves and anger fester further in the conservative media, then the rot will really begin to set in.
It will spread among all conservative commentators, then to the rest of the commentariat before spilling over to the community at large.
This could easily lead to a rout that none here have seen before, with the potential for Labor to achieve up to 120 seats or more.
The saving grace for some Libs in the very safe seats is that knowing this, some of the doctor’s wives will return to the fold to save some of their number – just.
Previous high water marks in once-safe conservative seats will be decimated. The losers will come from anywhere and everywhere as the LNP supporters vent their fury.
Years of infighting and division will follow, with Labor holding on to power through the boom and bust years, with a minimum of 12 years in power for Rudd and his successor, Greg Combet.
So says Lionel.
Lose The Election Please: if the other parties maintain their containment policy against the “radical extremist” Greens and put them last on their how-to-vote cards (as they did unanimously in 2004, if I recall correctly), Family First may end up taking a Senate seat that they would otherwise have gotten.
I think you should remove Nostradamus from the Coalition supporters group, I know for a fact that he is a Labor boy underneath.
hey whoever’s being the listmaster, change my numbers: I just emailed off my predictrions and I realised the number I pick is 91-56-3 to the ALP.
New photo of Howard, showing signs of pressure?:
http://members.ozemail.com.au/~imcfadyen/mediaarts/arthur1.jpg
So – what do people think tomorrow’s AC Nielsen is going to be (assuming it comes out tomorrow)?
I’m predicting 55/45 – a 1 point move back to ALP.
What is with the majority of journalists in Australia?
I cannot understand how anyone with any integrity can simply repeat baldface lies made by politicians, without comment or query.
They let the Coalitions interest rate scare pass largely unhindered in 2004. In fact they positively aided the Coalition by helping to spread the deceit, even though they must have known it wasn’t true. Sure, there were some journalists who pointed out it was bullsh*t, but they were few and far between.
How can it be that our democracy is so corrupted that the people who should be informing the public are instead dis-informing them? And in the meantime they stand meekly behind the shield of “journalistic impartiality” saying that isn’t there role to judge, and they are merely informing people of what politicians have said. So the more important the figure (eg. the PM) and the more outrageous the assertion, the more airtime it seems to get.
Now in 2007 we have the Treasurer and PM lying to the public with straight faces, claiming that electing Labor will bring on a recession. This should be scandalous, and the media should be hanging them out to dry. But mostly all we are hearing is “Labor says the Coalition has broken its promise on interest rates, and the Coalition says there will be a recession under Labor”. Well, that’s nice and balanced — but hello, spot which one of them true and which is not.
I don’t believe that Howard and Costello will get away with it this time. There aren’t enough mugs out there in voter land. But they shouldn’t have been allowed to get away with it in 2004. And this sort of bullsh*t should not even be entertained by the media in 2007.
Frankly I think it’s disgraceful. On matters where one party or another is lying outrageously the media should have some integrity and expose the fallacy. They don’t even have to comment on it directly… just give more airtime to political or economic commentators who have some credibility.
[Rant ends].
Thanks for the insight, #192.
ALP 98. It sounds over the top, but I think we’re looking at a Coalition demolition of near unprecedented scale here.
Howard Hater:
“Predicted labor gainsâ€
“Corrangamiteâ€
I live in this electorate and it wont fall to labor.
The mains reason being labor,
Labor ran a very successful negative ad campaign against the local candidate Mr Stewart McArthur last election, for supposal road funding abuse. This pissed off a lot of local people in the country area of this electorate who have waited a long time for there roads to be fixed. This would have increased labors vote last election.
The other main reason is labor candidate they have chosen Darren cheeseman a Union delegate from ballarat. This will annoy a lot of people, especially when they had a very strong candidate Peter Mc Millian Ex-geelong mayor, and was very well known.
A lot of people don’t have the highest regard for Mr Mc Athur in this electorate but the new candidate from laobr isn’t appealing at all.
If labor ran the Ex-mayor I would say they would have a very strong chance but not anymore. Cheeseman is coming across as a goof in the local paper.
56.5-43.5 2PP
48-40 primary
the 2PP will swerve drunkley around, but the primary vote between now and 24/11 will remain ferpectly shtable.
I know this is off topic but should the 4 Billion dollar handout to pensioners be called “The Breathing Bonus”. They don’t seem to have to do much else to get a payment of some description these days.
SL #205 I would like to see 53 -47. However, I think it will be the same. Labors primary vote is proving hard to shift. Last time coalition gains came from people retreating form minor parties.
I think the Coalition Health and Housing Policies will either get them back in or resign them to the Wilderness for 3 years.
3 years I say because if I were the coalition I would have tv ads of sick people and dying kids saying Mr Rudd you told me the buck stops with you but I’m no beter off then I was 3 years ago
LTEP # 178:
Regarding W.A., you will note that only my worst-case estimate has Labor losing Brand. Regarding Swan, Labor is on the nose there and it probably WILL change hands, if only because the Libs haven’t royally stuffed up their choice of candidate this time around.
Regarding Hindmarsh, I sit corrected – haven’t kept up with the Adelaide news. Could Paladin give me a link to the poll he saw?
Let’s look at other seats I mentioned:
VICTORIA
Bendigo – fair enough. However, I’d wager that the nurses’ pay dispute (and the ready-made wedge for federal Labor contained therein) hasn’t impacted the polls yet.
Isaacs – ditto.
SA
I don’t think we can disagree there – unless you can point out other likely ALP gains? Boothby was a lost cause the moment Cornes opened her mouth on camera.
Tas – ditto – they can only get all 5 seats, after all
Qld
Can you please point out other Labor gains? All remaining L/NP seats are on 9% plus from 2004 – that’s too much to ask, especially given the council amalgamations issue across Qld making the Coalition’s job easier.
NSW – here it gets much trickier.
Bennelong – most polling has the two nose-to-nose, and the incumbent usually picks up a surge on polling day.
Wentworth – Turnbull is just the sort of “damp” (not quite dry or wet) Liberal that Wentworth’s small-l liberal population can vote for. His margin was greatly undercut by the King effect last time round.
Sorry, but I just can’t find any other seats that I can give to Labor that I haven’t already credited to their best-case scenario.
Dr Good #192
If you think that Labor can win Canning or Kalgoorlie, I want to know two things:
1 – What are you on?
2 – How do I get some? It would make my life far more enjoyable than at present.
Even the most starry-eyed optimists in the ALP aren’t talking seriously about gaining either seat.
ND # 198
I only put Macquarie as a Lib gain in a worst-case scenario.
Anthony Green # 185
Watch the personal attacks, please – don’t compare me to Pearson.
Also, since when was any union (with the greatest of respect to their many achievements) interested in the right wing of politics? Not that I blame them – I’m something of a leftie myself (centre-left actually), but it appears to be deeply unfashionable in today’s electorate, and will hence damage Champion’s campaign. Regarding Hindmarsh, please note my retraction above.
Re Ashley’s rant (209)
The question for the press to ask is,
If Labor can so easily cause Australia to fall into a recession, then what explanation do you have for the Australian people as to why you, who claim to be the best economic managers this country has ever seen, have left Australia’s economy in such a precarious position?
The 1929 swing is difficult to measure exactly because so many safe Labor seats were uncontested but there were ’safe’ Coalition seats that fell on +10% swings in the suburbs. The one ray of hope for the Liberals from the seat polls is that some of the swing will be wasted making Labor’s narrow 2004 victories into safe seats, Hindmarsh, Adelaide etc.
The Chief Economist of the MacQuaria bank told the British Australia Chamber of Commerce that the government had wasted every dollar of its surpluses on pork barrelling etc…
This story was in news ltd stories a week or so ago. Damned if I can find it now. Anyone else run across it?
Mathew Cole @166
You say it will be interesting to see how Corcoran performs in Isaacs this time round.
It would be not only interesting, but astounding to see any significant performance by Corcoran at all in Isaacs this time round, given that she lost the preselection.
My dad always reckoned the Tailors union was very conservative. But I stand to be corrected.
Costello: ” Because everything I have done has been for short term benefit only. Nothing we’ve done will help in the long term.”
Matt Cole, Advertiser Hindmarsh poll from 24/10/2007:
http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,22638480-5006301,00.html
Also see the earlier thread on pollbludger.
Matt Sykes # 223 – thanks.
J-D # 220 – Oops! Must…update…information……. :blush:
Kina,
His name is Rory Robertson, if that helps, but I can’t find it.
The expression ‘left-wing union’, to my mind, implies a union which is to the left as compared to other unions. That’s the way I normally see it used. It’s common, in my experience, to see the expression ‘right-wing union’, meaning a union which is to the right as compared to other unions. And the SDA is definitely one of those.
Mathew Cole
The majority of Queenslanders support local council amalgamations. Don’t get sucked in by a very vocal minority.
Paul K (222)
Exactly!
Since we’re talking Senate how about a prediction there?
Returning Senate reads Coalition 19, Labor 14, Greens 2, FF 1.
The territories will return 1 each for Labor/Coalition
I’ll say NSW, Tas and Vic will go Coalition 2, Labor 3, Greens 1,
SA to go Coalition 2, Labor 3, Mr X 1
WA to go Coalition 3, Labor 2, Greens 1
Qld to go 3/3
So the new senate would be something around Coalition 35, Labor 31, Greens 6 and others 2. That would allow Labor to get through legislation the Coalition tried to block with Green support.
Matt Cole, it won’t matter a damn what happens in WA. The Libs are going to get absolutely slaughtered on the eastern seaboard. NSW and Vic are at around 59-41 for Labor, that’s a HUGE swing, and they’ll lose plenty more in Qld and SA.
Matthew Cole: you’re being way too pessimistic !
There seems to be such an air of desperation and pessimism emanating out of the Liberal camp that the MSM is finally starting to reflect.
Sure, the Liberals might be returned narrowly, one can never rule out the possibility. And yes, some of us might be getting too carried away with dreams of Labor electoral landslides.
Maybe it’s just a feeling I’ve got this time, something that wasn’t there in 2004, 2001, 1998 and 1996.
Most of us after all are only amateur psephologists and punters: maybe we’ll all be proved wrong on November 24?
Two of Australia’s biggest banks have politely told Treasurer Peter Costello to butt out of their business, saying decisions on how to set mortgage rates are theirs alone.
http://abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/10/25/2070113.htm?section=justin
Speaking of predictions, I would love to hear William’s…
Regarding the myth of government ecoomic genius, here are a few interest rates around the world now for comparison:
(from http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/interest-rates-table/)
Major Central Banks Overview
Central Bank Next Meeting Last Change Current Interest Rate
Bank of Canada Dec 04 2007 Jul 10 2007 4.5%
Bank of England Nov 08 2007 Jul 05 2007 5.75%
Bank of Japan Nov 13 2007 Feb 21 2007 0.5%
European Central Bank Nov 08 2007 Jun 06 2007 4%
Federal Reserve Oct 31 2007 Sep 18 2007 4.75%
Swiss National Bank Dec 13 2007 Sep 13 2007 2.75%
Reserve Bank of Australia Nov 06 2007 Aug 07 2007 6.5%
So we are “leader” of the free world in high interest rates. From the same source India (7.75%) and China (7.02%) are slightly higher. But after that only a few places struggling with inflation like Hungary, Brazil, Turkey and Iceland are worse. At least when interest rates were 17% under Hawke it was part of a world wide problem. This is just bad policy.
Re 232
The article is completely correct. The impact of the US Subprime was on the cost of wholesale funding – not the losses on the subprime loands themselves. Though it appears Merrill Lynch have made a mess of it….
see http://fairnews.com.au/content/view/43/1/
Some of my comments there are out of date now, but the stuff on subprime is still true.
Ratsak,
Don’t be surprised to see the ACT return two Labor senators or for the Greens to get one up over the Libs Gary Humphries.
I’m expecting the Labor HoR vote here to be 66-70% this time around – a swing of about 5-8%. This will have a huge influence on the second senator, with an orchestrated campaign by Labor and the minor parties to dump Humphries.
A similar effort to remove the Libs Margaret Reid failed years ago – but only just. With the increased excitement of a Labor rout, the removal of Humphries is really on the cards.
Matt Cole @ 166
“Labor may very well lose Bendigo in Victoria, not helped by the abysmal performance of the Brumby Government.”
Is that statement based on fact, wishful thinking or glenism?
ruawake # 227,
Thanks. I’ll bear it in mind.
Ratsak # 229,
Not bad overall. However, there’ll be ice-skating in Hell before Victoria returns a Greens senator – look for 3/3 there. Your numbers don’t add up – or, rather, they add up to 74 senators. There are 76.
Given that of the 36 Senators who don’t have to stand this time, the likely composition is going to be:
(using your numbers) 35 Coalition, 33 ALP, 6 Green, 1 Mr X, and 1 FF.
(using mine) 36 Coalition, 33 ALP, 5 Green, 1 Mr X, and 1 FF.
It actually does make a difference – 38/75 votes are required to pass the Budget (assuming that Labor appoints one of their own as President). If I turn out to be right, then the ALP+Grn vote is one short, and will be required to solicit either Mr X’s support, or (ugh) Fielding’s.
Albanese wiped the floor with Coonan. It just shows you John our bias makes us see what we wnat to see and it makes no differnece to anything who did what to who on Lateline at that time of night. Next.
MC #166
Thanks for that, haven’t had a good chuckle in a while.
I was speaking to Labor ppl here in Bris on Monday that I knew from Uni days, they are ready to claim Moreton (although GH is a tough old coot), Bonner and Herbert. They are extremely pleased with Yvettes campaign in Petrie (who they say works harder and longer than Rudd) and she may very well be up. They also believe that Neumann has enough swing to gain Blair. In fact they believe Ipswich is a Labor city to the tune of 65-35 at the moment – the problem will be Gatton of course. Because of this and the stupidity of the Goodna bypass, Johnson is in trouble in Ryan with the Greens candidate apparently polling high single figures.
Add this to current leads in Leichhardt and with major chances in Flynn and Bowman and Labor may gain 7-8 seats.
As usual, take it with grain of salt as they were obtained via the judicious use of Tequila shots and selective memory as a result.
Interest rates – the fact is that Australians are suckers.
239 Gary, Coonan couldn’t win a debate against herself let alone anyone else.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/10/25/2070097.htm?site=elections/federal/2007
Pulling apart the coalition smear is now getting underway.
Sean @ 169 Complete fabrication on my part. I keep thinking this is a Phrenology site…doh! My only way of giving this any sort of rationalisation is that the coalition primary in some seats could be so low that a few extra independants may pop up. I of course have no way of backing this up.
In regards the attempt to unseat Margaret Reid in the ACT – the candidate that nearly got across the line was a Democrat. I think it’s safe to safe that before they imploded the Democrats were a better natural fit with ACT demographics than the Greens are.
Which is not to say that Kerrie Tucker isn’t it with a chance this time around. She’s a strong candidate.
It’s rated a 16% chance of happening by something I read.
Lord D # 230,
The question is this: where is the swing concentrated? If it’s in seats that the ALP already holds, or those they don’t have a hope in hell of getting, then it’s wasted, unfortunately.
HH # 231,
I hope I am being too pessimistic. Better a pleasant surprise than an unpleasant one – one is enough (I tipped an ALP win in 1998).
Socrates # 234,
Very accurate, and a point that I’ve been trying to make in my family for some time. How do you get it across to people who aren’t interested in details or explanations?
Derek Corbett # 237,
Wash your mouth out with soap! (don’t compare me with Glen) I happen to support the ALP, I just think that its a bit much of an ask to gain 16 seats in one election from a notoriously conservative public, never mind the 40+ that SOME people (looks at Lord D) are punditing. Also, I happen to have lost a lot of confidence in a public that does what the MSM (read: PBL and News Ltd) tells it to do, election after election. Maybe they can restore my faith, maybe not. Either way, I win – if ALP wins, I’ll be happy, if L/NP wins, my bets will generate enough money to get drunk for a week or so to drown the pain.
Gary Bruce #239,
Is there a link that I can watch it through? It may do something to restore my spirits.
Mathew – try this link. http://www.abc.net.au/lateline/
the death of a thousand paper cuts, cut number 989
http://abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/10/24/2069495.htm
Two more credible labor senators for your list.
Ludwig and Evans. both quietly effective contributors in their own way.
Entries are coming in for the seat-by-seat competition … already have 52 different seats selected in total that pollbludgers have predicted could change hands …
See #112 for details of the competition !
Matt @ 238
Forgot to add the two Labor Territory Senators so Labor 33.
Happy to agree about the Green in Vic. Do you think Bartlett has a chance of hanging on in Qld? Maybe at the Coalitions expense?
Lionel, Two Alp or a Green Senator in the ACT would really set the cat amongst the pigeons wouldn’t it. Kill off the Coalitions block straight away after the election rather than waiting for the end of the Senate term. Can’t see it myself as the Liberal vote would need to be well under 30% surely but would be happy to see it.
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