As reported by the Sydney Morning Herald (link broken at the time of writing), GetUp! has commissioned its third national poll of Senate voting intention from Galaxy. This is a highly dubious exercise which is producing very strange results. Make whatever you like from the news that Labor’s vote has slumped in the last month from 39 per cent to 33 per cent. The sample size was 1003; Family First and the Democrats were both on 2 per cent.
| ALP | LNP | GRN | |
| October 20/21 | 33 | 38 | 11 |
| September 8/9 | 39 | 35 | 10 |
| June 23/24 | 38 | 34 | 13 |
| 2004 Election | 35.0 | 45.0 | 7.7 |
UPDATE: GetUp! press release here. Maddeningly, “other/don’t know” has been rolled into one.
707 Comments
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Maybe out of desperation the Liberals will start getting Hyacinth to campaign for them in marginal seats? LOL
In the same link at 396 Hockey tries to tell us to believe him and not polls.
# 366 nath, considering the flaky way he’s handling himself now another 4 weeks of stress and rejection may just well result in your desire coming true.
#375 One of your best wombat, though I doubt any of the conservatives would actually notice the difference lol.
Great minds think alike
:) …. I purchased 2 wonderful bottles of red today from my bowls club. It was a fundraiser to help the club out so it was a win-win situation. They are sitting on the back of the kitchen counter waiting for the polls to close 
Well, I opened a bottle of 12yo port on Monday to celebrate the Newspoll. I’m saying the 18yo bottle of Glenfiddich for Howard’s concession speech… looking forward to it, already (and yes, Glen, I know this is hubris!)
i’m about to jump in the car and drive to the hunter for the weekend. any orders for 24/11?
Passthepopcorn: anything but chardonnay
Beer, and lots of it.
Apologies if this has already been mentioned but Crikey have a piece on Coalition odds back to where they were before election called (i.e. Coalition chance of winning is 33%/ALP 67%) after a tightening of the odds post Libs tax cut announcement:
http://www.crikey.com.au/Election-2007/20071025-Farmer-The-real-Cup-Day-punt.html
I could do with a nice Cab Sav for election night.
Will doesn’t Pratt give money to the ALP as well?
Culturally appropriate cocktail for Stirling: grappa, with a Spumante chaser.
Re Pathological Logic at 287:
Firstly, as acknowledged in the interview, food was way up also. Most people need to eat.
The argument about housing looks good on the surface – but it fails when you read the ABS document. On page 3 you come across this pearler of a line:
“All categories of housing recorded price rises this quarter. Main contributors to the increases were increases in rents (+1.6%), house purchase (+1.0%), electricity (+4.3%), property rates and charges (+4.5%) and water and sewerage (+5.5%).”
“Housing” as a category makes up something like 18% or 20% of the CPI. But the category “Housing” is just the name – it also includes a number of other things which are, essentially, utilities. And the utilities also rose too. So that’s food and utilities which rose greatly (not to mention housing in the proper sense).
Note also that the category finanical and insurance services does NOT include interest. They changed it a few years ago to expressly exclude interest rates. Financial services means things like bank fees and charges – actually likely to be lower if interest rates rise. Now we’ve got food, utilities and bank fees. It also shirks the fact that LAND is part of the CPI under housing. Raising rates will depress land prices – and in fact would already have been doing so.
As I’ve noted in other places, changes to the treatement of the chold care tax rebate subtracted 0.2pts in a one off.
The final point is petrol – petrol fell quarter on quarter but is rising steadily now. The fall in petrol subtracted 0.2 pts from the CPI in September. Once you add that 0.2 back on for next quarter and then add back on the Child Care tax rebate induced fall of 0.2 that won’t be repeated there’s an extra 0.4 floating around. We’re staring down the barrell of 1.1 or 1.2 for the Dec quarter.
Further down the ABS document there’s also a note that the “tradeables” inflation (essentially things you can import – so they have global prices) did not rise very much: only 0.2%.
However, the non-tradables, (things you can’t import/export, mostly services) rose 1.1%. The only thing holding down Austrlian inflation is the fact that we’re small and take global prices for some things. Those global prices have been falling – but there’s no garantuee they will continue to fall. In the case of petrol, we know the opposite is already looking very likely.
The argument that if you exclude housing you only get 0.2% is true, but also misses the fact that you have left in -0.4 of “one-off reductions”. It also misses the fact that housing is important – most people need it. If rents were the sole contributor it would be thorny, but inflation is much more broad based than that.
The other scary thing about the CPI figure, which the annual figures hide, is the quarter-on-quarter progresion. The last four quarters of headline inflation have been
-.1, .1 , 1.2, 0.7 (but really 0.9, if not 1.1).
So the annual figure looks OK at about 2.0%, but wait till next quarter when the -0.1 drops out. The chance of repeating the -0.1 is VERY slim…. in fact there’s good reason to believe the -0.1 will be replaced with +1.1 or so.
The case for Nov is made already and more so, in my view. The RBA are half way to either a Dec or Feb rate rise too.
Simply put, inflation is high and rising. Rates will rise too.
410 Will,
Mine are Shiraz blended with Cab Sav
:)
all orders noted. ciao.
This has got to be worth at least 5 extra points to Labor’s 2pp.
Shopping with Swanny!
http://www.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/story/0,22049,22646947-5001028,00.html
What next how to clothe ourselves?
For John of Melbourne (411) – I think the ratio is $1,000,000 to the Liberals and $100,000 to Labor. I’ll look for the reference.
David Speers dressed in black.
Is that an omen?
Julie: Jameson Run used to have a great Cab Shiraz Merlot. I think it was the 95 or 96 vintage. The current stuff is not as good.
No DST in QLD. We’ll know the election result an hour earlier than youse blokes.
Swan’s shopping tips is cringe inducing! It’s painfully simplistic.
Apparently we can save money by weighing our vegetables. And get this – we should read a variety of catalogues to see what’s on sale.
Dear oh dear. What were they thinking?
LOL @ Graeme using ‘youse’. People in Melb knew I was from QLD when I moved down in 99 because I said youse alot. Mind you when I came back from the USA I said ‘yall’ alot too.
I just wonder whether all of this celebration here about an impending ALP win is a bit premature.
We’ve already had a few twists & turns in this election (I’m sure a few ALP supporters here felt a bit of a sinking feeling in the gut after the polls last week, wondering whether a comeback was underway).
By looking at the posts here its easy to get a feeling of a false sense of security.
I just wonder what the combined effect of an interest rate rise, scare campaign on recessions etc might come up with. A lot of people are easily frightened, so will they stick with what they know?
Oh my – David Speers on Agenda is getting aggro with Nick Minchin over the whole ‘interest rates will always be lower under us than under Labor’! “Yes, but that’s completely hypothetical….” Speers is interrupting him and everything – MSM is truly turning
Yep Speers had joined the good guys. he is giving Minchin a bollocking
Another Howard hugger bites the dust and goes down crying like a crocodile.
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/news/queensland/i-was-a-scalp-for-work-choices/2007/10/25/1192941221876.html
Feel sorry for JH?
Just imagine what he would do if he won this election.
Still feel sorry?
Triffid (423). Pretend I am Kevin Rudd. I advise you to check before shaking my hand.
“A recession, John? You started a recession? You and Costello started a recession. You [devolves into a string of obscenities]“.
The MSM should be sticking it into the LNP. We are now getting a series of interest inflation and rate rises. The surpluses have been totally wasted. They have cut spending on Education, Health, R&D and let infrastructure fall behind. What are they good for?
All they had to do is rake in the cash from the Keating/China economy and spend it wisely for the future. Talk about wrecking a rainbow.
They deserve to get a bollocking for wasting the good times.
Kina Keating left no cash what he left was 96billion dollars of debt which made us unable to provide adequate fundings to education and health in our first term…
JOM @ 416
While 99% of us will cringe at that vid (as I did), it’s exactly the type of story that ACA/Today Tonight runs about once a month and millions watch and nod their heads.
So not such a silly thing as you might imagine.
I think you are all getting a bit off topic.
This Galaxy Senate poll is right on the money. My crystal ball predicts a Coalition majority in both houses.
Glen, you believe the Liberals too much.
Adjusted for inflation, the debt Hawke/Keating inherited was much LARGER than the debt they left behind.
And which treasurer did they inherit from again?
Rates Analysts: few Australians care about who was treasurer over 24 years ago. The key number that every knows is 17% under Keating.
Seems the Nationals who have been asleep at the wheel for almost 12 years have awoken with a fright and seen the result of porkbarrelling their electorates.
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/news/national/rate-rise-could-break-farmers/2007/10/25/1192941209195.html
Will,
I am a relatively recent convert to reds. Just within the last 6 months or so. I wouldn’t know a good one from a bad one at this point
But that having been said, for what it is worth, this is what I have: De Bortoli Sacred Hill Shiraz Cabernet circa 2006. It is a NSW wine bottled in Bilbul. It has 4 stickers on it – 2006/7 Wine Estate of the Year, 2007 Quaff Winery of the Year, Stuart Gregor 2007 Winery of the Year & Rutherglen Wine Show 2006 Bronze Medal. I have 2 of them.
interesting:
the legacy of Keating vs. the legacy of Howard
Howard is fighting former ALP leaders as well as the current one, who had nothing to do with any of it, so has no oar in this fight. The end of the Howard era is the end of the Keating era?
Ha and they had 13 years and they couldnt manage Commonwealth debt that is an F in my books besides Rates Analyst you believe the ALP too much for Howard and Fraser had to deal with the mess that was left to them by Whitlam and his loans affairs et al…
Matt, I suppose ACA&TT’s credibility is high too?
I look forward to Chaser lampooning Swanny. The segment will be what have we learned from Swanny this week?
Rates Analyst what was the state of Australia’s finances after the Whitlam Government?
why they’re fighting with oars, though I don’t really know. Maybe there are otters involved, maybe they got hijacked on a riverbank
Madame Ann Ann 434 Even better remembered is the 22% when Howard was Treasurer in the Fraser Government.
Rates Analyst -I remember that (ain’t we old). Howard’s deficit was 9.3 billion. And those were pre-float, 1983 dollars.
May be good news for Labor with the punters doing what they normally do; vote differently in the senate to the lower house so nobody gets a chance to go feral like Howard did in the past three years. if this is the case then maybe thoughts about a soft Labor vote are just that, soft. I know I am drawing more long bows than there were at Agincourt but does anyone else have any ideas?
Glen was compaining that Howard/Costello inherited a huge debt. I was merely pointing out a factual inconsistency.
True everyone know about 17% under Keating.
Everyone will remember that Hoawrd promised to “keep interest rates low” too. We’re watching history being written here Ann Ann, enjoy it!!
Political Donations by Pratt.
It is an Alan Ramsey article, you’ll need to read the enitre article to get the gist.
http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2007/10/12/1191696170408.html?page=fullpage#contentSwap2
Keating …..love it.
He accused Mr Howard of presiding over Australia’s last wages explosion in 1981-82, saying: “He was in the tinderbox with all the TNT around him, looking for a new wages policy, and he lit the match. Where am I? Boom!”
http://www.theage.com.au/news/federalelection2007news/costellos-10-years-in-a-hammock/2007/10/25/1192941222977.html
I wonder if any child is still in poverty? Glen what do you think?
443,
Could lead to heaps of Labor voters doing what I am doing and voting Greens in the Senate. Not because we have any problem voting Labor in the Senate, but it is more pragmatic. The Greens will work with Labor and they have a very real chance of getting enough seats to make a majority with Labors votes. More of a chance than Labor getting an outright majority themselves.
I say whatever it takes to boot the Coalition out
:):)
Nobody gives a fat rat’s what Keating did, and I am very sure that not very many people are voting because of Howard’s stint as treasurer in the seventies. I am so sure that he did something more recent that overshadows it…
the olympics? wait, it’ll come to me. Was he in The Matrix?
Reading, listening and watching the MSM, I detect a turning away from supporting the Libs. Many MSM journos are starting to ask the questions of Howard and Costello that they should have been asking way back to Children Overboard. I feel this trend will continue with a fair amount of hostility towards the Libs as time goes on. The interest rate rise in two weeks will probably make the most of MSM turn feral and the Libs will be at risk of catching rabies.
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