Reflections on the Miracle of Democracy at Work in the Greatest Nation on Earth

Monthly Archives: October 2007

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• The University of Melbourne’s new Soapbox site is a depository for election campaign material going all the way back to the federation election of 1901, assembled by media and communications lecturer Dr Sally Young and her research assistants Stephanie Younane and Mary Helen McIlroy. Though still at an early stage, it offers the mouth-watering [...]

Morgan: 56-44

Morgan has again released simultaneous face-to-face (conducted on the weekend) and mid-week (conducted Wednesday and Thursday) polls, with respective samples of 996 and 520, which give Labor leads of 56-44 and 54.5. Both show a slight narrowing in Labor’s lead, from 57-43 and 55.5-44.5 last Friday.

Advertiser poll: 64-36 in Adelaide

By which I mean the electorate of Adelaide, which Kate Ellis won from the Liberals against the trend of the 2004 election. The Advertiser’s latest poll of 724 respondents suggests Ellis has a mighty sophomore surge coming her way: her margin is tipped to increase from 1.3 per cent to 14 per cent, and she [...]

A long time in politics

As part of my thesis research I have been recording and coding broadcast media news coverage of the election since the campaign began. The following chart indicates how last week’s big ticket election stories played out on the radio, showing combined seconds of daytime news coverage on 720 ABC Perth, the Southern Cross network talkback [...]

Galaxy Senate poll

As reported by the Sydney Morning Herald (link broken at the time of writing), GetUp! has commissioned its third national poll of Senate voting intention from Galaxy. This is a highly dubious exercise which is producing very strange results. Make whatever you like from the news that Labor’s vote has slumped in the last month [...]

Seat du jour: Dobell

Dobell was created with the enlargement of parliament in 1984, taking in an area just beyond the outer north of Sydney. It covers the urban sprawl around Tuggerah Lake, from the coastal retirement haven of The Entrance to lower income Wyong on the interior side, the tourist area from Bateau Bay south to Wamberal, the [...]

Rise and fall

With today’s consumer price index figures said by analysts to make a Melbourne Cup interest rates hike extremely likely, Crikey offers another round of Roy Morgan data mining, this time ranking electorates in order of respondents’ various economic concerns. Morgan has also aggregated its September polling to provide state and country/city breakdowns. Also in the [...]

D-day minus 31

Hinkler (Qld, Nationals 8.8%): Greg Roberts of The Australian reports that Labor’s candidate for this Bundaberg-based seat, Garry Parr, is suffering a campaigning boycott from members of the Left and Unity (“Old Guard”) factions. Parr is backed by the Labor Forum (AWU) faction, whose chieftain Bill Ludwig has evidently put a few noses out of [...]

Advertiser poll: 60-40 in Hindmarsh

The Adelaide Advertiser’s latest marginal seat poll suggests Labor’s Steve Georganas, who won his coastal inner suburbs seat of Hindmarsh by 108 votes in 2004, is likely to have a less nervous election night this time around. He leads Liberal candidate Rita Bouras 46 per cent to 32 per cent on the primary vote and [...]

Electorate-level Morgan data

If you’ve got a lazy four grand to spare, Roy Morgan provides subscribers with “complete computer tabulations of the questions asked analysed by a range of demographics”. This isn’t much use to most of us, so it’s pleasing to learn that “for the rest of the campaign, Crikey will be working with Roy Morgan Research [...]