Reflections on the Miracle of Democracy at Work in the Greatest Nation on Earth

Monthly Archives: November 2007

What is to be done

Friday, November 30, 2007 – 5:19 am

What I don’t know about the Liberal Party could fill a warehouse, but most of the prescriptions outlined by Michael Kroger on Sky News on Tuesday accord with my prejudices:
The organisational wings around the country need to be reformed immediately, particularly in relation to the branch structure and preselections. There’s a lot of things that [...]

By William Bowe | Posted in Federal Election 2007 | Comments (1,042)

Toil and trouble

Thursday, November 29, 2007 – 5:33 am

Federal Coalition. Today’s Liberal leadership contest is of course being amply covered elsewhere. I will say only that the 6-to-1 odds on Brendan Nelson from SportingBet look remarkably attractive from what I’m hearing. Warren Truss is set to take the Nationals leadership unopposed following the withdrawal of Peter McGauran. No by-elections loom at this stage, [...]

By William Bowe | Posted in Federal Election 2007 | Comments (1,082)

How’s it swinging

Wednesday, November 28, 2007 – 3:51 am

Below is a preliminary Mackerras pendulum/table based on current results. The first thing to note is that the Liberals seem to be enjoying one-way traffic in late counting. They have taken the lead in Dickson, Swan and Bowman, appear home-and-hosed in La Trobe and are strongly placed in Macarthur. An 862 vote lead in McEwen [...]

By William Bowe | Posted in Federal Election 2007 | Comments (720)

Random notes

Tuesday, November 27, 2007 – 5:34 am

• I’ve variously heard it said that this election was Labor’s biggest ever win, and their biggest ever swing. I presume this is because nobody can be bothered looking past 1949, a benchmark year due to the expansion of parliament, the election of the Menzies government and the fact that the AEC’s historical two-party preferred [...]

By William Bowe | Posted in Federal Election 2007 | Comments (802)

The day after the day after

Monday, November 26, 2007 – 6:38 am

That lucid analysis I promised two posts ago will still have to wait another day. In the meantime, I have added a new “photo finish” thread below for Dickson, where Labor’s lead is an uncomfortable 389 votes, to those already existing for Swan, Solomon, McEwen, Macarthur, La Trobe, Herbert, Bowman and the Victorian Senate. It [...]

By William Bowe | Posted in Federal Election 2007 | Comments (1,367)

Quotable quotes

Sunday, November 25, 2007 – 6:39 pm

Four observations that grabbed me from Insiders this morning. One from Barrie Cassidy:
• “Paul Keating described his win in 1993 as one for the true believers. Last night’s was not. Kevin Rudd promised to govern for all Australians. His appeal within the Labor Party itself is tempered because of his conservative cautious stance on so [...]

By William Bowe | Posted in Federal Election 2007 | Comments (862)

The day after

Sunday, November 25, 2007 – 7:45 am

A more lucid analysis will have to wait for tomorrow. For the moment I can only offer some swing breakdowns: 5.6 per cent in Sydney, 5.5 per cent in the rest of New South Wales; 5.4 per cent in Melbourne, 4.7 per cent in the rest of Victoria; 7.8 per cent in Brisbane, 8.5 per [...]

By William Bowe | Posted in Federal Election 2007 | Comments (1,248)

Photo finish: Victorian Senate

Sunday, November 25, 2007 – 7:29 am

Saturday evening. This post will be used to follow the final stages of the count for the Senate in Victoria, where at the close of election night counting the third Liberal candidate Scott Ryan has a 1.3 per cent lead over Greens candidate Richard di Natale. Of the remaining five seats, three have been won [...]

By William Bowe | Posted in Federal Election 2007 | Comments (129)

Photo finish: Dickson

Sunday, November 25, 2007 – 7:28 am

This post will not be further updated. Results below are not final. For up-to-date results visit the AEC’s Virtual Tally Room site.

2007
2004

ALP
LIB
ALP
LIB
Swing

Booths
34,395 50.31
33,977 49.69
26,372 41.04
37,880 58.96
9.26

Pre-Poll
1,916 48.53
2,032 51.47
1,318 40.57
1,930 59.43
7.96

Absent
3,025 50.82
2,927 49.18
2,002 42.14
2,748 57.86
8.68

Postal
2,240 43.86
2,867 56.14
1,461 37.62
2,422 62.38
6.24

Provisional
37 54.41
31 45.59
106 36.02
189 63.98
18.39

Total
41,613 49.87
41,834 50.13
31,258 40.90
45,170 59.10
8.97

ALP (adjusted)
49.9

LIB (adjusted)
50.1

Sunday evening. Dickson was being called for Labor on election night, but Liberal member Peter Dutton is not out of the hunt yet. The counting of just over 2000 pre-poll votes has [...]

By William Bowe | Posted in Federal Election 2007 | Comments (42)

Photo finish: Swan

Sunday, November 25, 2007 – 7:25 am

This post will not be further updated. Results below are not final. For up-to-date results visit the Virtual Tally Room site.

2007
2004

ALP
LIB
ALP
LIB
Swing

Booths
29,461 50.17
29,256 49.83
28,185 50.25
27,899 49.75
-0.08

Pre-Poll
2,025 47.61
2,228 52.39
1,583 46.40
1,829 53.60
1.22

Absent
2,624 47.39
2,913 52.61
2,995 50.20
2,971 49.80
-2.81

Postal
1,689 48.96
1,761 51.04
1,417 48.35
1,514 51.65
0.61

Provisional
69 57.02
52 42.98
534 57.36
397 42.64
-0.33

Total
35,868 49.76
36,210 50.24
34,714 50.08
34,610 49.92
-0.31

ALP (adjusted)
49.8

LIB (adjusted)
50.2

Saturday evening. This post will be used to follow the final stages of the count in Swan, where at the close of election night counting the ABC computer has Liberal candidate Steve Irons [...]

By William Bowe | Posted in Federal Election 2007 | Comments (40)