You’re right; lefty refugees from the inner-city of Sydney only really start to kick-in at Hazelbrook, and from then on heading westwards, Labor’s vote becomes stronger. Whereas, many of the suburbs east of Woodford have in the past been pro-Liberal.

But I was taking a more broadbrush approach here; the mountains region down to Lithgow overall will be better for Labor than west of Lithgow, simply because of the demographics (not many farmers in the former region, but many in the later) and Debus’ profile in his old state patch.

Just on the east of Woodford area, I don’t regard them as rusted on Liberal and in a high-tide Labor election, like this one is looking to be, I believe they will swing hard to Labor. If you look at the socio-economic profile of people in this area they are pretty similar to (but may be a notch or two higher up the scale than) those that have voted for Jackie Kelly down around the Penrith area (eg Blaxland is known as “Penfiff Heights”).

Good to see you fighting the good fight.

I too believe that Debus will win Macquarie however my understanding of the electorate is at odds with yours.

If you look at Adams maps of the electorate you will see that the east end is predominantly conservative and it is not till you are west of Hazelbrook and Lawson that a shades of pink tends to creep in. Lithgow and Bathurst are traditional Labor areas (ie Ben Chifley country) and I would have thought that these areas would still be Labor strongholds as is indicated by Adam’s maps. As an example I think that there is only one Labor booth east of Woodford

I would have thought that this would be why Bartlett would be campaigning at the western end of the Division because unless he got some support from these western areas he would have no hope.

You are right n saying that the Debus is well known in the eastern end of the electorate for this was the basis of his state seat. However, from memory I thought that the Labor support at a State election did not carry across all that well at a Federal level.

However, when you are lifting a beer on election night to Bob’s win please raise one in the memory of Duncan for he would have been overjoyed at a Labor win. It is just a pity that he did not live long enough to see it.

Exactly. Cook? WTF? Hughes, I could understand, Macarthur, Lindsay, Dobell, Robertson, even Greenway maybe, but Cook?

Maybe we’ve found where that swing the Newspoll marginals poll is missing went to.

I’m flattered I think….

I’ll tell you guys something…two years ago I knew jack about the political landscape and I can not tell you at what point it changed but I can tell you why.

I have watched our great nation and people slide into an abyss created by the slimy social engineering of what will be known as our worst leader in history and that is the point that I decided to not only speak out but to get into the ears of the politicians who I think that can reverse the situation.

Also because of my project I had to get on line to get my message out and I couldn’t even use a mouse two years ago!

So please bear with me as I am still learning, but I must be getting it pretty right, as you can judge for yourselves by seeing my work at Blogocracy and Meganomics.

I hope this explains my position.

Respectfully,

scaper…

Well I finally got off my backside yesterday and spent the day campaigning for ALP at a park stall in the very safe lib seat (13.9%) of McPherson. An amazing day and we were absolutely flooded with best wishes and cheers for Eddy Sarroff (local ALP candidate).

No one mentioned the Garrett incident, not once. In fact seems no one is bothering to listen to any Lib stuff at all, all the talk was about Howard being past it and tricky, Rudd being positive about the country, need to fix the hospitals and of course workchoices.

Considering McPherson is such a safe lib seat we were overwhelmed with the amount of support and encouragement we got and with how many people indicated they were ditching the libs this election. Rudd is very popular here and I have heard Maragaret May (won the seat for Libs in 98) has basically resigned herself to being over run by the ALP swing.