However, getting back to the campaign in Bennelong, it’s been very apparent for quite some time that Howard’s team has been hammering Maxine on the ground. Whether that be with Street Stalls, Railway Stations, poster sites, literature or knick nacks, Howard is clearly well ahead of the ALP. Howard’s local campaign team has swung strongly into action, which has seen them man up to six street stalls on any given Saturday morning. Howard also has a hand picked team of Young Liberals who are out on the ground on Saturdays and during the week. By contrast, Maxine’s purple shirt wearers turn up at Ermington or Epping for an hour and leave. That’s hardly professional campaigning – in fact, it simply proves a lack of resources and manpower, a point well highlighted in a July edition of the local Northern District Times. It will be interesting to see if McKew even bothers to run more than three street stalls this weekend?

McKew for all her supposed charm, continues to struggle for name recognition with the crucial Chinese and Korean community. Despite the best efforts of a few in her Chinese supporters group who salaciously throw up the old Howard/Hanson xenophobic chestnut, most in this community see through this lie and are reluctant to throw away access to their local MP who also happens to be the Prime Minister of Australia, similar in vein to the access that they have to John Watkins, the NSW Deputy Premier in the overlapping State electorate of Ryde.

Sure, the result of this seat will be close and the best thing McKew has going for her is demographic change, however, the odds must surely be right and in favour of a Howard win in this seat? Any talk about odds being corrupted is just another foolhardy, socialist conspiracist theory. It’s about as believable as the arrival of the next socialist revolution or a comeback from Che Guevara?

Let’s see what happens in the next few weeks….

I believe (and hope) that Kina is right, @ 79. The ‘once it looks like Labor will win’ factor was one of the main reasons I thought I was getting solid ‘overs’ when I placed the bet. Howard has all but confirmed he will retire if he wins but Coalition loses (’no shit’ is an appropriate response). So who wants to vote for a by-election? Not many swinging voters I’d say.

As to peoples’ bets not affecting the price, the Bennelong market is pretty thick, judging by Betfair. Last I checked, which was a while back, Betfair had matched:

National market (i.e. who forms govt): $600,000
Bennelong market: ~$60,000
Most other individual seats: less than $1000

Her worst case scenario now would be that the Libs getting back in with a waffer thin majority, in which case Howard will have no choice but to resign within six months, the by-election called and Maxine will sail in as the new member for Bennalong.

I guess the question uppermost in the minds of many electors in Bennalong is do they go through th charade of bring back Howard only for him to shoot through in a couple of months, or do they move on to the next generation of politicians (and by the way, most likely have someone influencial in the new Government as their MP).

Odds still $2.60 at 6:30pm. Amazing value, really.

William

I have a number of the missing threads, most in full I think, two of which are partial only, which I have pasted into word documents.

Any good to you?

It happened that I had left them open, which my brain (?) had not registered till now.

Regards

“This country needs infrastructure and, for the last couple of years, the business community and journalists and editorial writers have been saying we need more money spent on infrastructure.”

For the last couple of years?????????????

So he’s admitting they’ve done bugger all for two years, and now three weeks out they decide to do something but not to begin until 2009?

And they wonder why the polls are stuck on 55-455…

Promises for roads are generally the first discarded – if they weren’t, Sydney to Brisbane would be the safest road in the world by now.