• In the midst of the Friday morning poll flurry, I somehow failed to take note of the Advertiser poll of 778 voters from Wakefield. Labor’s Nick Champion led Liberal MP David Fawcett 58-42 on two-party preferred, from 47 per cent to 33 per cent on the primary vote. Yesterday the Advertiser ran a front-page item complaining that South Australia was being overlooked because its three Liberal marginals all looked like foregone conclusions for Labor. One might protest that Sturt and Boothby are in play, but the article informs us that “neither is expected to change hands unless the political stocks of the Government deteriorate even further in SA”.
• Speaking on Lateline on Friday night, Michael Kroger claimed “people in the Liberal Party and around the traps generally” were “more and more confident that the two high profile seats in NSW of Bennelong and Malcolm Turnbull’s seat in Wentworth will be won by the Government” – although Rod Cameron wasn’t so sure. Kroger also rejected talk Labor might have its eyes on Casey and Aston in Melbourne, as their campaign focus was entirely on more marginal seats.
• The Age economics reporter Josh Gordon on the targeting of recent election promises:
In the past week alone, the Coalition has announced a $15 million south coast sustainable regions program (for the NSW electorate of Eden-Monaro), $300,000 for a Beaconsfield Heritage Museum (for the Tasmanian seat of Lyons), $400,000 for palliative care in Geelong and Colac (for the Victorian seats Corio and Corangamite) and $16 million to extend the Tasmanian freight equalisation scheme to include King Island (for the Tasmanian seat of Braddon). Those states with more marginal electorates have generally faired best. Queensland has been the overwhelming winner. It has been promised $878.7 million by the Coalition, including hundreds of millions of dollars worth of road funding announcements. Western Australia has also been the next major beneficiary, with a $405 million plan announced to extensively upgrade Perth’s roads. Victoria, where there are no Coalition seats held by a margin of less than 4.9 per cent, has been promised $238 million by the Coalition, despite its 25 per cent share of Australia’s population and economy. Labor has been just as expedient with its spending plans. Its policy promises tally to about $47.6 billion. As with the Coalition, the vast bulk would be soaked delivering tax cuts. A significant chunk of the remaining cash – about $4.3 billion – would be used to fund spending decisions targeting specific states. Again, Queensland has been the major winner, with more than $2.6 billion on offer. Victoria, where there are eight Labor seats held by margins of less than 5 per cent, would fare relatively better under a Labor government, with about $724 million promised.
• I don’t get too excited about ballot paper placement, but it’s nonetheless interesting to note that Maxine McKew is last out of 13 in Bennelong. Notable candidates elsewhere: long-standing Liberal preselection aspirant Michael Darby running for the CDP in Dobell; former Greens MPs Michael Organ in Cunningham and Robin Chapple in Kalgoorlie; former state Noosa MP Cate Molloy, running as an independent in Wide Bay; and perennial trouble-maker Stephen Mayne in Higgins. No sign of Kelly Hoare in Shortland. In the Senate, former Labor member for Kalgoorlie Graeme Campbell is on a ticket in Western Australia along with former state One Nation MP John Fischer. The fourth Labor New South Wales candidate I was wondering about the other day turns out to be Pierre Esber, a Right faction Parramatta councillor who had long coveted the Bennelong preselection. The all-important Senate preference tickets will be revealed this afternoon.
• Sue Neales of The Mercury reports that “internally, Labor remains confident about winning Bass back from the Liberals … but gloating about a Labor clean-sweep of all five Tasmanian electorates is gone”. This is roundabout way of saying that Braddon is still in play, although the Liberals suffered a blow there this week when the government was forced to delay its much-touted Mersey Hospital takeover.
• There has been a spike in chatter lately about the possibility of the Liberals losing their ACT Senate seat, following recent Morgan results showing the party’s vote at a parlous 24 per cent. With 33 per cent needed to secure a seat, that would turn the second seat into a contest between Labor and the Greens. As territory Senators’ terms are tied to the House, this would mean the Coalition would lose its Senate majority immediately, and not with the changeover of state Senators in the middle of next year.
• Shame on me for not yet having linked to Peter Tucker’s self-explanatory Tasmanian Politics website. Go look.
328 Comments
Yay I win. Hmm something inteligent ro say. Nothing comes to mind really. Except – Coalition be afraid, very afraid!!!
I’m not sure I would trust anything The Advertiser says
My Labor spies tell me that Boothby isn’t a lost cause by any stretch of the imagination and that Sturt is definitely in play despite the larger swing needed.
Definitely two seats to watch on election night.
Good morning all,
Guaranteed to put a smile on your dial! (Via Andrew Landeryou)
http://au.youtube.com/watch?v=TfkVvzAiAgo
Yes, and it looks like they’re going to waste a motza and another week raving on about the idiot Garrett. The bloke]s a buffoon, no doubt, but do they really think he would ‘let the cat out of the bag’ if it was a ’secret’.
I suspect the electorate are really sick and tired of being taken for fools** and any protracted focus on the Garret goof may prove negative for the coalition. (** Except coalition voters of course, who evidently are)
Do I detect a hint of desperation creeping into the Coalition campaign? If they think Garret’s ill-disciplined comment is going to be the 2007 “handshake moment” things must be grim at Liberal camapign headquarters. If “the narrowing” proves illusory over the next week or two, who will be the first coalition MP to come out against Workchoices in order to save their seat?
Loved the John Saffran thing. What a nasty piece of work Steve Price is. Why would Garrett even give him the time of day, let alone a piece of ammunition like that?
Maybe Grumblebum is onto something. Perhaps Garrett’s throw-away line was deliberate… It will keep the Howard boosters busy for another week and tempt them into making themselves look even more ridiculous. Janet is at it over in the GG predicting God knows what. Yes. Definitely a clever tactical move from Garrett.
Re Sue Neales, not that she’s wrong, but I’d be suspicious as to how she knows internal Labor sentiment – she’s not exactly ‘in favour’ with State Labor in Tasmania, following her reporting of various State political issues, such as the pulp mill and the builder accreditation scandal. My understanding is that Paul Lennon hates her guts.
But that’s not to say she doesn’t have a source in the Federal party, or that Braddon isn’t still in play…
This is very off topic but does anyone know how to enlarge the size of the commenter’s printed responses?Since the recent site troubles the print is on the verge of being unreadable for me and I have a big hi res screen.
The betting market response to the Garrett affair is in.
Labor initially blew out all the way from $1.28 to $1.31 and they are now back at 1.29.
Good morning, and good to see you back William!
“The Federal Opposition starts a new advertising campaign today to attack the Coalition over the cost of living.”
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/11/04/2081032.htm?section=justin
National Galaxy Poll will be out tomorrow.
Please god, don’t let Akerman be on Insiders. Although maybe I should get a job at Gitmo – it seems I do enjoy watching torture!
Heard that the Democrats were locked out of preferences in SA. Also heard that What Women Want apparently broke a deal with the Dems. d’oh!
Labor voters – dont get too excited!
You need to be 5% clear on TPP to be confident
According to the Sun Herald in Sydney a major coalition announcement today on roads aimed at boosting coalition votes in outer metropolitan seats in Sydney and Melbourne.
Labor have to keep asking, why now when you’ve been in power for 11 years?
The SEC has published a running total of postal vote application which is a step above the Victorian Electoral Commission
http://www.aec.gov.au/Elections/federal_elections/2007/data_extracts/downloads/pva_stats_for_at071102.csv
But is is unknown if this is the number of postal vote application received as opposed to the number of postal ballot papers issued and number of postal votes received back.
we are hoping that the AEC will also publish running daily totals on the pre-polling votes received.
This information along with absentee and section votes could play a major role in close elections. the provision of the statistics in a timely fashion plays a major role in campaign/scrutiny planning. The failure of the Victorian electoral Commission to provide this information in 2006 *And a lack of due diligence on their part) contributed to the errors recorded in the count.
I wonder how much traction this “We’ll fix up the local roads and get rid of driver hoons” underground campaign is working for the Libs?
re: Maxine being in the 13th position, Yes the donkey vote is worth maybe 0.5% but there is also the reverse donkey vote and what is known as the inverse donkey vote (Voters vote for their chosen candidate then fill in all other squares top to bottom or bottom up) It will not serve John well if he won by such a margin. Either way Maxine might still have a second chance in the expected by-election that will follow the liberal parties loss.
The Sunday Tele in Sydney talks about $20mil in funding to look at extending the F6 freeway through Danna Vale’s Hughes as not really being worth a cracker because “Hughes and Cook are safe Liberal seats”. Cook, yes, but the “rabbit caught in the headlights” look on Danna’s face as she was setting up outside Sutherland railway station on Friday morning would perhaps indicate otherwise in Hughes…
The government is still running very hard with the Garrett thing, with the PM on insiders this morning raving on about it
He mentioned Charles Wooley being involved now… anybody know what thats about?
John Howard has a very real talent for sincere sounding expressions of worries about boogiemen.
He really does it quite well. The concerned looking eyes, the tone. A true professional.
Howard on Insiders. Not looking healthy. Twitching, stammering, bloodshot eyes, and going on about Garrett.
Now he’s going on about technical schools. Wants those of us who didn’t go to private schools to be plumbers. That’ll meet the challenge of China.
Now the fear campaign on interest rate – US sub-prime crisis … wages surge… No time to hand over to inexperience…. Upward pressure on interest rates…. Interest rates lower than…
Oh I can’t be bothered…
The Libs are truly desperate, and this is the only thing they can run with. However, it’s extreme negativity, and this has cheesed off voters in this election. It also draws attention to the Libs failure to keep promises, eg, imposing Workchoices. It could also be a dog-whistle for Labor, with small-L libs who don’t see enough difference to vote Labor now perhaps reconsidering.
Howard seems to think that if he refuses to acknowledge that he might lose it can’t happen. Oh, I’m looking forward to his speech on election night.
Mega is on Insiders.
Shame about the Poisoned Dwarf, but at least it isn’t the toad Akerman.
Just saw Howard on Insiders – looking desperate, spent time on Garrett’s gaffe, but trotted out the old economy scare ‘labor can’t manage it’. Howard got a bit shitty when questioned about leadership change. Howard is casting around for something to get traction. Won’t work.
Quotes from insiders:
“Howard needs 10000 primary votes a day to switch allegiance between now and the election”
“No narrowing on the budget, on the tax cuts, on APEC, on the call of the election, what will cause it now?”
News from the trenches:
Two neighbouring electorates couldn’t be more different in their ministerial (or aspirant) approaches to the electorates. Kingsford Smith ignored by both major parties (nothing from the Libs, 1 piece from Garrett), a very small number of coreflutes, 1 piece from the Greens. Compare this to Wentworth with Turnbull burying it in paper – I heard up to a 10 pieces of paper, including a very nice looking dl size leaflet, a few coreflutes up, although with none of the intensity of the state election.
Senate preferences should be interesting. Have heard that the LDP (thats the free-market for everything party) have a deal with the Libs, so next time the Libs say “extreme Green” there’ll be a chorus of “but you do deals with the pro-gay, drug & abortion party”. Also Humphries in the ACT not getting a very good flow at all, so ACT looking interesting. Ditto for the Libs in Tassie.
re Dembo – had heard that in at least one state WWW had a split ticket with the Greens/Dems, but noted that Bartlett in Qld getting starved of preferences. But to be honest, I think the interest is going to focus at the bottom of the preference chain – who’s ahead when it gets down to the last few transfers. Have heard the CDP has done interesting things with their preferences too.
But we’ll all know soon enough!
Garrett’s not a fool: he’s just not a career politician/political operative. (Unlike many here, who can only see him through such a lens). If anything, Garrett was just voicing the – repressed – hopes of most in the party.
The obsessional control of even the milk-sop rhetoric that falls from candidates lips, by both party leaders’ offices and party machines, creates this repression and hence the odd ’slip’ like Garrett, Abbott etc. You don’t have to be Dr Freud to appreciate this.
On a lighter note, I had to travel the main routes of Bonner y’day by car.
Counted 6 billboards of Vasta (incumbent Lib). Four in very close proximity, and HUGE. 2 more, side by side, trumpeting Lib brand + anti-unionist slogan.
Not a sausage from Labor.
Yet the chatter here and elsewhere is that Bonner is gone.
Any explanation?
eg
1. Bonner is not gone, but still in play (But if so, where is Labor’s response – don’t they think billboards work?)
2. Billboards are booked yonks in advance and for some contractual reason the Libs can’t pull out and put the money elsewhere (But if so why would the Libs be tied to inflexible contracts and not Labor?)
3. Vasta has a personal campaign pile and is burning it all.
Dennis Shanahan is on to something here with his selective use of the lower number of the MoE to signify a recovery for LNP. Wait till some very small sample surveys with moe of 5 or 6 percent are released.
He’ll be drooling.
I think that Howard might be onto something in his latest strategy to somehow embrace the looming interest rate rise as a way of highlighting the need for sound economic management when times get rocky. It sounds perverse but here is my logic:
A lot of voters feel free to shift to the relative unknown of Labor precisely because things on the economic front have been quite cruisey, notwithstanding problems of housing affordability and the rising cost of petrol etc.
So when you have the focus on economic uncertainty, as you obviously do with a rate rise, voters are forced to consider questions of competence. This explains why it was that Newspoll was the Coalition’s best in ages right after the week when the inflation number came out, which in turn shifted talk to interest rates.
Please don’t misinterpret this as me trying to push a particular barrow. I’m not.
Flash, the reason the newspoll was good was because it’s probably a low lying outlier, within the MoE. And the economic stuff is a two way street; the latest ALP ad works that theme beautifully.
Flash 45% will agree with you and 55% won’t.
Swannie nullified competency doubts.
There is increasing evidence that the populace are understanding that the governent can’t pull the levers to affect interest rate outcomes but also that governments, both state and federal should be doing more for infrastructure and addressing capacity constraints.
Labor seem to have a more coherent message on productivity and the link to underfunding infrastructure.
Yes CL I agree that the new ALP ad is a masterstroke, especially, as someone noted on Insiders that it adopts a respectful “no offence” tone towards Mr Howard – recognising that voters don’t hate him the way they did Howard, but rather consider that his time is up. In that way, the ad is beautifully nuanced in a way the Lib B-grade horror movie style ads catastrophically are not.
Sorry I meant “the way they did Keating”.
This morning Centrebet have shown the government have blown out to $3.70 from $3.60. So much for the Garret Gaffe shifting momentum!
Yes, you almost get the feeling that Howard is looking forward to an interest rate rise so he can scare the pants off the slow thinkers in the marginals.
Although the panel on Insiders analysed this pretty well: “Go for Growth” vs. “Be afraid of growth”.
I have yet to see a senior journalist point out (to his face) any of the following: that Howard claims wage rises are both inflationary and non-inflationary; that Labor will drive wages up and at the same time drive wages down; that wage rise are good for some and bad for others (all of whom are, presumably voters who are expected to cheer for a wage freeze); that a boom is a good thing for the Coalition and that a bust is just as good.
The journos (Cassidy was the latest this morning) just let him talk over them. Howard even admitted that he had only a few “precious minutes” left to get his message out via the interview. Yet Cassidy just let him rave on.
One bright note about Insiders: if Howard is looking to Charles Woolley to save his bacon and turn the election around for him, he must be desperate. The Insiders said they had audio, but not audio of the actually woolley-Garret discussion, only audi of Woolley recounting that discussion: the same nature of audio that they have of Price’s recounting. This is desperate stuff.
I’m not so sure about the No-Baseball Bats meme. Howard’s popularity ratings are just about evenly balanced – as many dislike him as like him – while Rudd’s num,bers have a big positive balance.
Perhaps the entire country doesn’t have their baseball bats out, but as many do as don’t.
The only danger though for Labor in this Garrett thing – don’t you think BB – is that it may have an air of plausibility for those voters inclined to see Garrett as a radical itching to get hold of the levers of government. But I think you are right in that the lack of an direct audio is a problem for the Liberals in terms of trying to milk it. I think they will nag away with the Garrett line for the rest of the campaign but whether it has much traction may depend on whether any other similar chinks emerge to fuel such a perception. For Howard, it represents a last desperate hope, along with the economic doom and gloom scenario.
BB – you’re right on workchoices. It either delivers growth in real wages or it restrains them. Which is it? Out in the suburbs, what matters is interest rates ($$$) and workchoices ($$$), with climate etc a fair way behind. What matters in the Lib heartland seats (which are obviously in play) is climate, refugees, etc.
Howard is on a hiding to nothing if he thinks the Garrett thing will save him. Their confused economic message is turning out to be a real disater for them, if the journos were smart enough!
Part of Howard’s logic, though, is that an argument based around economic management does not need to be coherent. Who out there in voter land really understands these things, or even wants to? He simply needs to tap into nagging doubts.
Rudd is offering tax breaks to save for a deposit
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22700296-12377,00.html
I think Rudd needs to hit the Garrett gaffe on the head by bringing out some advertisements listing Howard’s broken promises. Its damn ridiculous that the libs are getting traction on this issue given their record.
Flash – two can play at the game of nagging doubts. And the reality is looming interest rate increases, after 11 years of Lib govt. And WorkChoices is about depressing real wages, as Howard has now acknowledged, and the ALP ad also stresses. Garrett is a tool and needs to be locked away somewhere, along with Ruddock, Abbott, Andrews, Bishop and the rest of the coalition no-hopers, but his silliness may well be a distraction the Libs can’t afford. Anyway, the analogy that springs to mind features straws and drowning people, rather than going for the prize.
Deo, with respect, Rudd just needs to stay on message, which he’s done really well. Feeding the Garrett stuff is not a great idea, especially with the likely events of the week ahead, which the Government will be desperate to avoid!
Deo aren’t you reading anything at the moment? Labor is off and running with its ads and a tax hike seems just around the corner. Besides who said this Garrett thing was getting traction? Did you see Insiders this morning. It was obvious that not one of those commentators believe Howard can win.
What some of you are forgetting is that the Libs will have to fight their own rear guard action against Labor. Labor has so much material to work with it is embarrassing. Besides, I believe the dye is cast and has been for most of the year. Think back at what has been thrown at Rudd. Nothing has turned those polls. Gaffes by both sides are just noise and mean nothing to the average person.
Do the Libs have Garret on tape……..no.
Do Labor have Minchin on tape to the H R Nichols society……yes.
Game over.
I thought it was odd this morning on Insiders that someone commented that the gaffe had only got traction because it was Garrett who said it.
I think it’s the complete opposite. If someone in a position of real importance (Rudd, Gillard, Swan) had said it then Labor would be in trouble. But Garrett is already regarded as a firebrand character and this simply serves to reinforce his activist image.
So IMHO, the fact that it was Garrett means that people aren’t taking it too seriously.
For those who are interested in the rumours of a preference deal between the Libs and the Climate Change Coalition in Bennelong, here’s the denial. Not surprisingly, it was just a beat-up:
http://www.smh.com.au/news/federalelection2007news/you-can-deal-me-out/2007/11/01/1193619061113.html
Kalgoorlie is more interesting after nominations and the draw for ballot positions. Not only does Sharon Thiel, the ALP candidate, have poll position at No.1, but the Greens’ Robin Chapple is below Barry Haase negating flow on. There is no Democrat candidate confirming their sad decline. And of course no Graeme Campbell. With the Newspoll swing the seat may be less than 2%. An interest rate rise might get Sharon over the line. Wish we didn’t have to pay more on the mortgage to see Howard off.
anyone got a link to the new ad?
Flash – as they said on Insiders – how many under 35 voters would be turned from Labor to Liberal by an attack on Garrett? – none.
Love Howard’s thinking on Insider’s. I’ve spent years driving up inflation and interest rates so only I can keep both these managed. Managing it by producing more pork for more roads in coalition seats shows just how out of touch he is. Don’t think he will change a single vote towards the Liberal Party with his manage inflation by increased spending philosophy. Spending like a drunken sailor in the week of the next interest rise is not a smart tactic.
Poor Howard – bumbling all over the country, twitching, losing it, smiling innanely like some botoxed clown. Spraying promises, fear, scare campaigns, pork across the country, on an endless quest for some traction, a modicum of relevance, perchance the silver bullet ….he was almost telling Barry Cassidy to shut up while he fired off indiscriminately hoping to hit something. Its like watching someone in talent contest who cant sing or dance but have managed to convince themselves that one big move, one sustained note might just catch the judges attention…
Thanks much Ashely, now I feel much better
:) …….
Despite El Rodente’s histrionics on Insiders, Gaffe Garrett’s goof-off which is now 3 days old, isn’t gaining traction with punters. The Rat King still remains topweight in the Desperation Stakes.
LABOR 1.28
COALITION 3.70
Kinda get the impression that the huge majority of voters are switched-off to all things Johnny. Unabashed Narrowists might disagree but betting markets suggest that these people lack conviction.
With respect of El Presidente Rodente’s bodgie promise to keep interest rates at record lows, the electorate seems to be formulating a response along the lines of:
“Don’t piss down my leg, pal, then try to tell me it’s raining!”
There are still three weeks to go in this campaign and even though the Garrett childishness is a worry for Labor at the moment, the dynamics are forever changing and I suspect it will be consumed by weightier issues. Galaxy and Newspoll tomorrow will go a long way to answering the Garrett question I guess.
Then later in the week there’s the expected LNP big push on the Economy, in the face of a rates rise, to not risk change. Campaign launches in a week/week and a half, blanket Workchoice ads by Labor. Billions in health yet to be announced by both sides. And on it goes.
For the Garrett stupidity to still be on the radar in 10 days is a bit of a stretch.
On the bookies though, there was an interesting analysis in one of the weekend papers saying that despite Labor’s overwhelming favourite status at a national level, the picture is quite different on a seat by seat basis.
When averaged out across four bookies, Labor is favourite in just 75 seats – that is, barely scraping into government. When questioned about this disparity, one of the bookies said a lot of punters sling on some cash based on national polls, which, in the same way, may fail to take account of seat by seat variations (notwithstanding Sol Lebovic’s analysis of the Newspoll marginal breakdown as being anything but good news for the Coalition).
When the leading Murdoch Sunday Paper in Perth leads with the death of a Newsreader yyou know Garrett is a non-story.
Oh and who watches Insiders, aside from the political tragics – not Joe Sixpack. He will be applauding Rudd’s First Homebuyer pledge.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/11/04/2081098.htm?section=justin
Enemy Combatant have a look at this story and the Garrett positive just when the Libs thought they had struck paydirt.
http://theorstrahyun.blogspot.com/2007/11/how-garrett-gaffe-will-become-message.html
Well thanks Mr Andrews!!!!!!!!!!!!!
The number of overseas doctors seeking to work in Australia has fallen 90 per cent because of the federal government’s handling of the case against former suspected terrorism supporter Mohamed Haneef, a medical association warns.
http://www.theage.com.au/news/National/Overseas-doctors-shunning-Australia/2007/11/04/1194117860480.html
If the Liberals are able to convince the electorate that 9 straight interest rate rises is good evidence of how to cope with inflationary pressures, then their next policy should be to offer people an oppournity to buy the Sydney Harbour Bridge
Steve, I’d like to agree.
But do you think Rudd will do anything other than a ‘Me Too’ following today’s headline in the Sunday-Mail? Namely, ‘Howard’s $5b gift fo Qld Roads’.
Yes, according to the AFR, Labor is over $10b UNDER the govt in its commitments, but I’m yet to see Labor making much of this. Since the whole strategy is to shadow the govt as much as possible.
Perhaps we’ll see them roll out some big ads in the last week stressing how much more frugal they are than the govt, to invert the old paradigm. Not sure it’ll work for Labor hat late. The media’s cynical refrain of ‘they’re all drunken sailors’ is too entrenched. Though being entrenched, it has also taken the much of the bite out of Howard’s bribery.
Wednesday is rate rise day. If I was a jockey riding Labor I would be so tempted to go for home straight after. But we will wait ’til after the party launch and then go for the doctor. The work2choices ads are going to be relentless. But show the nurses faced with AWAs, man are they going to cut through!
Graeme
A lot of the road funding to be announced today has already been announced by labor.
Some of that road spending has got the Libs in awful trouble in a seat or two. Do people believe Howard will follow through on all this? What’s the time frame again for all of this to take place and how long will Howard be there. People aren’t silly, well those that are listening. For the others it is sailing straight over head.
It’s time for Labor to give up. “From overseas, Howard looks a winner…
“Finally, Australia is a country where voting is compulsory. The political analysts here believe that, when you have to vote, you require severe provocation to change the way you last voted, and that provocation is largely absent.”
(Simon Heffer, The Age, November 3, 2007 (reprinted from The Telegraph):
http://www.theage.com.au/news/opinion/from-overseas-howard-looks-a-winner/2007/11/02/1193619139330.html?page=fullpage#contentSwap1)
Nominations are now open for the 2007 Worst Election Website award. Here’s my entry:
http://www.thefishingparty.info/
Graham, it was interesting that Michael Johnson in Ryan was bleeding because of the previous road proposals to sure up Blair. The latest barrel of road pork from Howard is aimed squarely at trying to save Johnson’s bacon. It includes money to fix the Ipswich motorway but is sending over $2 Billion more than what was necessary before Howard stuck his nose into the issue.
I think Rudd will just sit on what he has already announced The Liberals have already been damaged for almost a year now since Howard began picking favorite backbenchers to support.
A singularly stupid article, I thought, Chris. Shows what happens when you try to follow Australian elections from Britain by only reading News Ltd websites. You’d think someone writing for the Telegraph (not a Murdoch paper) would know better.
Oh and why rely on Charles Wooley, whose show is mainly broadcast to the regional stations who used to broadcast John Laws.
Re Road Funding – It seems the libs are rewnowned for being anti Public Transport.
Adam,
What does it say about The Age that it published it?
Surely it is legitimate for the Age to publish a view from abroad – in a mainstream publication – of the Australian election, however misguided
Thanks steve, like this excerpt from your link, but think that more voters ( cf. preferred PM polls) loathe than love His Shiftyness:
“Rudd has managed to not make this election so much a choice between Labor and the Coalition, but a choice between Howard and Rudd. And Rudd is just far too popular for the prime minister to beat right now. The majority of the Australian public don’t hate Howard, but they don’t want to vote him back into office….
That may change in the next 20 days, but it’s impossible to imagine how.”
Oh and according to the Dead Tree edition of the Sunday Crimes – Proin first are directing lower house preferences to El Rodente, cos they’re pissed off with Labor preferencing the Greens.
I didn’t say The Age shouldn’t have published it. I said it was a stupid article.
I also liked Howard’s pathetic attempt on Insiders to “prove” that WorkChoices was announced Liberal policy in 2004, done and dusted, out there for everyone to see in the full light of day.
He admitted, apparently without embarrassment, that he’d had to re-read his own policy, poring over it to drag out a few scraps of what we now know as “WorkChoices” from a blancmange of half-promises, nudges and wink-winks prior to the 2004 election.
Instant dismissal repeal we knew about. “AWAs are a good thing” we sort of knew about.
What we did not know about were loss of award conditions, loss of pay, extra hours at the boss’s behest, 3,000 pages of legislation, safety nets where no safety nets were needed, and all the rest of the WorkChoices industrial relations nightmare.
What does Howard think the Australian people are? I know there are some slow thinkers out there, but does he take us completely for total mugs?
To smarmily tell Barry Cassidy that, upon boning up on his own policy documents from the past 11 years with a magnifying glass, he cobbled together advance notice of WorkChoices from a score disparate documents and backwater web sites, is tantamount to telling the Australian people that he swindled us with the fine print. It was so well-hidden that millions missed the major policy plank of the past three years of government.
Please, oh please Johnny, keep going on this one. Keep trying to tell us that we should have known Earth was to be demolished to make way for a hyperspace bypass, if only we’d gone up to Alpha Centauri to see the plans on display, like he had to do himself to find even a half-baked glimmer his own policy. That’ll calm down the punters. It’s their own fault! Sometimes I really do wonder why they think you’re mean and tricky.
They don’t call the Daily Torygraph that for nothing in the UK. It is more jaundiced against Labour than even our own GG (I know it seems impossible that the GG has been out Toryised!).
Nevertheless it’s a much better paper than The Australian and also better than The Times.
Chris C – I think the Telegraph is known as the Torygraph in Britain, for obvious reasons. I thought the re-run in the Age was their humour piece for the Saturday paper.
Sunday, November 4.
PM Unearths WorkChoice Rosetta Stone On Insiders.
StanS – You beat me to the Torygraph line!
Adam – It would be but a modest achievement to be better than the Oz. As to The Times, the owner is?
Personally I prefer The Guardian
Howard finds little-known Nostradamus quartrain: proves Workchoices was 2004 policy.
BB – Howard is the master of the fine print, and of the ‘I didn’t actually say that, what I actually said was …’. But you can only play that line so often. And he’s run out of opportunities, I think.
I’m surprised by the ill-informed nature of that DTele (UK) article. The DT UK is actually more the paper of the upper class than the paper of the Tory’s and I’d agree with Adam that it is a MUCH better paper than the Oz or the Times, which is now complete rubbish.
Still waiting for a positive ad message from the Coalition. Perhaps we should run on a book on the date which it will happen. I choose the 14th November.
Bushfire Bill – is the answer to the ultimtate question – ie how many seats the ALP will win and the LNP will lose, is it 42?
Flash,
Legitimate, yes; sensible, no.
CL,
I am relyng on distant memory so may get this garbled, but The Daily Worker is read by the people who think they should be running the UK, The Times by those who think they are running the UK, The Telegraphy by those who used to run the UK and The Financial Times by those who are running the UK.
@ Sean, your talent quest analogy was a good one. Once again the loser in the contest was Alltip Costello, whose tryout will evidently only feature on the blooper show…
Chris C, very good summary of both British newspapers and the class system!
It’s afectionately known as the Torigraph, (not the telegraph). You can see now which horse they would be backing.
Maxine is still at $2.85 on SportingBet, despite the three damning Galaxy polls. It has been speculated, IMHO correctly, that the price is being held there artificially by Liberal money.
Can I suggest a project. SportingBet offer a $100 free bet as soon as you sign up with a $30.00 deposit. Bet your $30 however you like, but put your free $100 on Maxine. I have just done this and it felt good! Let’s see if we can get Maxine below $2.00! Tell your friends, pass it on, letterbox, let’s have a Maxine tsunami.
cheers,
Alan H
Whoever was looking for the Labor ad that came out today. It is here.
http://www.youtube.com/australianlabor
thanks steve for the link. It’s a goody. It works for me. The workchoices add with the guy from Narre Warren is still the best. You nearly cry watching that one.
I think it’s a very smart ad. It plays the real issue rather than “unions bosses eat babies”.
And The Star, The Sun, The News of the World and The Mirror are read, or at least looked at, by people who neither know nor care who is running the UK. I’m not sure where that leaves The Daily Mail.
Yeah, the ad’s a nice one. No offence Mr Howard, but could you just f%#* off? From what we know, it’s a sentiment shared by all of his own front bench!
And The Independent is read by???
Talking of Bennelong, a nightmare scenario was put to me about the election – although I guess it is a dream one for Glen et al…….
……Coalition hang on to government by one seat – Bennelong, which is held by Howard by less than 50 votes.
I didnt laugh.
I thought the UK tabloids had no pretence at being newspapers, as such; i.e., in the sense that they do ‘news’. As opposed to sanctimony, titilation, spite and spleen.
As pointed out on Insiders the “no offence” line is perfectly pitched. Especially compared to the spitefull LIb ad. As Laurie Oakes wrote a couple weeks ago, the electorate has warmed to the “nice” Rudd.
Brissyrod, another dream of Glens we will see more of in coming weeks is people hugging Howard slapping him on the back and saying good luck for your coming retirement.
Speaking of Bennelong, I read the following assertion some time ago but have never seen it confirmed or denied:
If the Coalition won the election but Howard lost his seat, there is some obscure provision in Australia’s electoral laws that allows Howard to bat on as PM, if he obtains the consent of his party, even though he doesn’t have a seat in Parliament.
Sounds absurd, and it’s hard to imagine the likes of Costello and Turnbull, contemplating this but when I read the original assertion (sorry can’t remember where) it was made with some authority.
BrissyRod, worse still, how about bennelong held by one vote – Howards. Lefties would be in therapy for the rest of their lives!
It is never that close in federal elections as it is in state and council due to the size of the electorates. But in saying that and trivia question for the day, what is the smallest margin that won a seat in Australian history?
BrissyRod – yes, a bit of a nightmare, but a double edged one. It’d mean the libs would have to do what Howard wanted, since he’s quite spiteful enough to resign if they do something he doesn’t like (like getting him to honour his ‘transition’ promise).
Rudd responds to Howard’s “dynamite”
Mr Rudd said the ABC interview to which the prime minister referred was a second-hand comment about Tasmania’s Tamar Valley timber mill.
“(This) is about a report of a report of a report concerning the paper mill down in Tasmania,” he said.
He described Mr Howard’s comments as “classic … desperation politics”.
Mr Howard will do anything and say anything in order to hold on to political power, Mr Rudd said.
“… The Liberals, in a previous generation, were running a campaign of reds under the bed.
“Now it’s greens under the bed, some secret green agenda. For goodness sake.”
Flash,
You can be a minister for, I think, three months without being an MP.
Interesting. Thanks Chris C. I don’t suppose that would be relevant then since it would only really apply if a minister who lost his seat was going to be parachuted into a safe one in a byelection.
Flash, you don’t have to be in the Parliament to be a member of the Executive Council, which is the constituional advice forum for the Gov-Gen, but the convention is that you have to be in the HoR to be PM, and I can’t see anyone bending over backwards to let Howard bat on. On either side!
Howard said Work Choices was in the last terms policy documents which he just re-read. I challenge him or anyone else to produce this document.
Greens under the beds isn’t bad. Has the great C Wooley said anything about his appropriation by the libs?
Yes fair comment CL. And I suppose it would be quite humiliating to have to stand in Parliament in those circumstances.
He couldn’t stand in Parliament, save in the stranger’s gallery!
Centaur: from my website
In terms of numbers of votes, the closest result in a House of
Representatives contest was 1 vote (13,569 to 13,568), when Edwin
Kirby (Nationalist) defeated Charles McGrath (ALP) in Ballarat
(Vic) in 1919. The result was declared void in 1920.
In 1903 Robert Blackwood (FT) defeated John Chanter (Prot) in
Riverina (NSW) by 5 votes (4,341 to 4,336). This result was also
declared void.
The closest result allowed to stand was 7 votes (13,162 to 13,155),
when John Lynch (ALP), defeated Hon Alfred Conroy (Lib) in Werriwa
(NSW) in 1914.
In terms of percentages of the vote, the closest result was Kirby’s
voided win in Ballarat in 1919: he polled 50.002% of the vote. The
closest result allowed to stand was that in the Griffith (Qld) by-
election of 1939, when William Conelan (ALP) defeated Peter McCowan
(UAP), after preferences, with 50.007% of the vote.
The closest winning margin in recent times has been 50.011%, polled
by Ian Viner (Liberal) in Stirling (WA) in 1974 and by Christine
Gallus (Liberal) in Hawker (SA) in 1990.
Ha!!!! Sportingbet have dropped to 2.60!!!
Can you guys hold off on punting for maxine until i can get a bet on, please!
Is suspect you’re right about the LIb money keeping the Bennelong odds up, Ashley.
Could you imagine Howard going into the last week favourite to lose his seat??
Try this “jumble word game”: Nail, Last, Coffin, In The
Prediction: Maxine McKew will sink or swim based on the final week’s campaigning. If there is some kind of momentum on the Coalition side, Howard could get up on the back of that, but if there is a continuing sense of the inevitability of a Labor win then many of the undecided Bennelong voters will just think: what the heck.
LOL, well 2.60 is still pretty good odds, especially if you are using a $100 free bet.
Grog is it “screwed”
I suspect Howard would lose quite a few votes in Bennelong if more people realised he is planning to resign if the Libs lose government, but he holds Bennelong. He once again refused to admit it on Insiders, but neither would he deny it (so guess which is true).
Anyone living in Bennelong who can confirm whether Labor is trying to inform people of this and make a big deal out of it?
Ashley, did you mean sportsbet? Looks like Mr Footscray got on.
https://www.sportsbet.com.au/sports/event/SportID/65/CompetitionPID/13279/RoundPID/5487/EventID/700403
steve, sportingbet is another site. They moved Maxine in from 2.85 to 2.60 about 15 minutes ago.
I was interested by Mega George’s final comment on Insiders re. the Haneef affair and Kevin Andrews. I wonder if there are further revelations in the offing from News Ltd, who have continuted to give this issue prominence. Would be good to see him put under pressure on his role this week, though finding him might be a challenge… I also wonder what is making them maintain the rage on this particular issue given its obvious negative for the LNP.
CL de Footscray,
Not quite right. Every member of the Executive Council is, I believe, by definition a Minister of State. Under the Constitution, each and every Minister of State MUST be a member of either House of Parliament. Under convention, yes, a PM must be a MHR. The only exception was John Gorton, who became PM while still a Senator after the death of Harold Holt. He stood in Holt’s now-vacant seat and won, thus avoiding the constitutional crisis.
Re mine at 11.19 SportsBet were at $2.45 this morning. They only give you 20% free bet of the amount you deposit, if that is over $300.00 ie $60 for depositing $300. Sporting Bet give you $100 free for depositing $30. So to repeat myself:
Can I suggest a project. Bet your $30 however you like, but put your free $100 on Maxine. I have done this and it felt good! Let’s see if we can get Maxine below $2.00! Tell your friends, pass it on, letterbox, let’s have a Maxine tsunami.
cheers,
Alan H
Paisano,
I was a teacher and am a suppporter of the ALP. If teachers are badly treated by the ALP, I don’t allow my support for it to silence me. Journalists, with a few exceptions, are journalists first. If a story hurts the government, a pro-government newspaper will still run it.
The Executive Government…
http://www.aph.gov.au/senate/general/constitution/chapter2.htm
New Thread.
The Andrews stuff-up (I apologise for the tautology), the SMH relevations about the horse-flu, and the interest rate give Howard more than enough reason to stay the course on the “risky Labor” line. He knows as soon as he campaigns on his government’s performance he’s in trouble – he’ll either look as though he’s stuck in the past, or he’ll be spending every second dodging history.
Chris C, here’s the quote from Wiki, from the “Yes Minister” series:
How apt, and yet how typical of Yes Minister…
*snicker* must dig out old YM videos.
Bushfire Bill notes, re Woolley “The Insiders said they had audio, but not audio of the actually woolley-Garret discussion, only audi of Woolley recounting that discussion: the same nature of audio that they have of Price’s recounting. This is desperate stuff….”
Desperate Indeed. The cops used to regularly attempt to use such “evidence” before sound and video recording of suspect interviews became mandatory.
It used to be known as a “Verbal”, as in “he made a verbal confession, Your Honour”.
The Courts were usually pretty wary of such “evidence”, normally according it the value of the paper it was written-on.
I see Howard & Co still prefer the old ways.
In the 1968 South Australian election, Labor deputy premier Des Corcoran defeated his Liberal opponent Martin Cameron by one vote. This made the state of the parties: 19 ALP, 19 LCL, 1 Independent. The Independent, Tom Stott, backed the LCL and Steele Hall deposed Don Dunstan as premier.
An interesting feature of the count was the revelation that the Millicent returning officer, W. D. Behenna, had breached protocol by voting. Cameron led by two votes with three postal votes to be counted. The first two of these went to Corcoran and it was thought that the final vote might be informal as it had been posted to the wrong district originally. A tie would have put Behenna in the position of casting the deciding vote – even though he had already voted. However, the last vote was formal for Corcoran and had held the seat.
A court of disputed returns ordered a new election for Millicent and Corcoran won by 430 votes.
In the orginal election there were three candidates – ALP, LCL and DLP. Cameron still maintains he was beaten by his aunt, who declared: “I gave you three votes, Martin.” That is, she wrote a three against his name, placing him last.
Corcoran later moved to a city seat and briefly became SA premier. Cameron was later a Liberal senator and then Liberal leader in the Legislative Council.
Thanks for the Con con lesson guys, I was a bit rusty!
That should be Com con of course
Chris Curtis, I notice the DLP has made a comeback with Senate nominations in all states. Where are their preferences going?
Flash said:
And if there is a continuing sense of the inevitability of a Howard loss in Bennelong, then a goodly proportion of the undecided voters in the electorate at large will just think: what the heck… anything but Costello.
Phil Robins, a very good question. There is nothing at all at the DLP website about the elections and emails to the secretary are unanswered. They’re a bit Olde Worlde the DLP. This is the first time since 1975 that the DLP has run Senate tickets outside Victoria.
Without wanting to speak ill of departed, why is Charmaine Dragun’s story being given such priority in the Sydney Daily Telegraph? Readers’ clips, “why she was loved so much”, “‘My story of Sydney’, by Charmaine” etc. etc.
How does a 29 year old newsreader reading the Perth news from a Sydney studio become so “loved”, in Sydney as well as Perth?
Peter,
Thnask for the full quote.
Phil,
I expect that the DLP will preference Family First in the Senate and that it will put the Liberals ahead of the Greens. I think it will preference pro-life ALP candidates ahead of pro-abortion Liberals. I also think that its candidates outside of Victoria will poll less than one per cent.
Okay then. Couple of things:
- No idea what those Morgan posts were doing there. Now corrected.
- My “paged comments” plugin doesn’t work with the new version of WordPress. Better go find a new one.
- Apologies to those whose comments were held up in moderation. They’re out now.
Samuel K, 14 seats should be enough to win the ALP government. If Windsor supports them Katter will be forced to, or to force another election.
Let It End, all people that help out at party stalls say they’re surprised by the crowd’s reception (regardless of what party they’re from).
Um, other than lifting the exemption from unfair dismissal from companies under 10 to companies under 100 employees, I think that the Liberal IR package brought in is pretty much identical to the policy the Libs took to the last election. I distinctly remember them talking about it.
Say what you will about how crap is WorkChoices, but it was out there before the 2004 election. Voters and the media were just too lazy to look.
Ironically, the Howard interview on Insiders actually served to enhance Garrett’s appeal rather than hinder it as a result of the Friday mishap. Howard alluded to the point that Garrett is a radical and has shown his true colours. In my opinion, many of the less astute have been turned off by the reported about-face of Garrett on a number of environmental issues throughout this year, accusing him of selling out. Friday’s gaffe, if anything, will help to bring back some of those turned off, with the notion that the old Garrett is alive and well. Howard thinks it’s a negative, but like most of his perspective, he may well be mis-reading the electorate again.
Letitend, you need to be careful with that kind of subjective impression of popular opinion. If you took a bunch of Liberal cards and went out to Inala, you’d find lots of friendly people, too. That doesn’t mean the Libs are going to win Oxley. The major parties have supporters everywhere, and they will rally around their candidates during campaigns. Sometimes the fervour of the faithful is in inverse proportion to the fortunes of their party. The biggest and most enthusiastic crowds Labor has ever drawn were during the 1975 campaign, where Whitlam was virtually deified by the crowds, but was still thrashed come election day.
I think we have to give some credit to Howard on clarity and honesty with the electorate. In support of this claim I’ll site the following article (from May this year) as an example of Howard being up-front and honest with the Australian people: http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/05/22/1930125.htm
Also William there is something wrong with your clock. My 3pm posts come out dated at 2pm.
Does anyone know of any analysis regarding informal votes in marginals? I’ve seen figures where informals are as high as 4% in some electorates. Any research been done on what the intended vote was (LNP, Labor etc) which ended up as informal? Is this always inadvertent, or is there a certain percentage of voters who are determined to vote informal, and are these people ever detected in opinion polling? I guess I could ask the same questions regarding donkey voting. Obviously, when 2pp difference gets down to 1-2% then intell on informals and donkeys becomes of interest.
Timing is everything. This has not hit the media in SA yet. Many thousands of patients in the next weeks will get letters saying they cannot have the surgery their GP has referred them to public hospitals for anymore. I wonder if federal Labor is happy that SA Labor has done this with 3 weeks to go. I can just imagine the Mad Monk.
“The Department of health has announced a list of elective surgery procedures that will be excluded from public hospital elective surgery activity from 5 November 2007 on the basis that the funding could be better allocated to procedures where there is clear medical need.”
http://www.health.sa.gov.au/ELECTIVESURGERY/Default.aspx?tabid=205
The most worrying statistic from psephological sites has strated to fall into line with conventional polling. Simon Jackman finally has the ALP ahead in 75 seats in his three bookies average. I think the latest one to move into the ALP camp is Herbert.
What a disgrace it will be if Howard pulls this one out of the fire. He was hopeless this morning on Insiders – desparate and all over the place. His “only we can be trusted with an economy where inflation is inevitable and interest rate rises a matter of course” was Keating 96ish.
My only fear remains a sudden and late shift as a result of electoral risk-aversion. While it’s hard to see this shift occurring in all states and all seats, it only needs to be enough to avoid a net 15 seats changing (15 being enough with the majority of the 2PP vote).
Well I finally got off my backside yesterday and spent the day campaigning for ALP at a park stall in the very safe lib seat (13.9%) of McPherson. An amazing day and we were absolutely flooded with best wishes and cheers for Eddy Sarroff (local ALP candidate).
No one mentioned the Garrett incident, not once. In fact seems no one is bothering to listen to any Lib stuff at all, all the talk was about Howard being past it and tricky, Rudd being positive about the country, need to fix the hospitals and of course workchoices.
Considering McPherson is such a safe lib seat we were overwhelmed with the amount of support and encouragement we got and with how many people indicated they were ditching the libs this election. Rudd is very popular here and I have heard Maragaret May (won the seat for Libs in 98) has basically resigned herself to being over run by the ALP swing.
I think all this rummaging through entrails is missing the point. Most people have switched off long ago. Thats why the polls are so steady at 55-45. I can’t get any interest from anyone when I mention Abbott turning up late or Garretts gaffes. And I think Sols 25% making their mind up in the last week is BS. The 25% who claim that just want to be perceived by the person polling them as someone who likes to get “all the facts before I make a decision”.
Hey, I was just phone polled (Sunday morning) by UMR research, and it was seat specific (I’m in McEwen). The questions weren’t really loaded either way, they just asked me who I was going to vote for, 2PP, and my opinion of Rudd, Howard, Costello and the two local ALP and Lib candidates. The woman ‘didn’t know’ (perhaps couldn’t say?) who the poll was for, but thought it was private party polling. Anyone know who UMR work for?
Does anyone know which ad agency is responsible for the Libs’ singularly unimpressive (negative, dated, black and white) campaign?
Howard discovers that a fairy at the bottom of his garden mentioned WorkChoices to him during the last election!
Apologies for the time stamp confusion – I think it was somebody else’s fault this time. Now fixed.
Nick, I believe UMR does Labor internal polling.
Watched Insiders for the first time in weeks – as an act of masochism. Howard’s body and facial language was quite revealing. Recalled the commentary on Clinton’s facial language during his endless questioning. The specialists on this aspect of non-verbal language pointed out the characteristic raising and drawing together of the brows when a person is lying. Howard’s brows were almost permanently in that position even when he was supposedly telling the truth. They only got more emphatically so when he was asked about whether he would retire if the party lost and he won.
Overall he looked like a rabbit in the spotlight. The last rabbit out of the hat, rabbiting on on auto pilot.
Glen Milne had the look of someone who has given up the fight and has decided to enjoy the ride from then on. Don’t think it’ll stop him from doing His Master’s bidding from on high in his rags.
On technical issues – comment numbering has disappeared.
Have Sporitngbet’s odds of a Coalition victory improved lately? Now at Coalition 3.30 Labor 1.32
http://sportingbet.com.au/uipub/sport.aspx?l1id=34&l2id=189195
Following on from the earlier discussion on UK papers. Here is the Telegraph’s take on things.
{Australia ready to embrace Kevin Rudd
By Barbie Dutter in Brisbane
Last Updated: 2:14am GMT 04/11/2007
According to its most famous housewife, Australia is not yet ready to be led by a man named Kevin. But for once, Dame Edna Everage seems to have got it wrong.
In less than three weeks, her fellow Australians are set to oust John Howard, their conservative-minded prime minister of 11½ years, and replace him with Kevin Rudd, the Labour leader.
Kevin Rudd is favourite to become Australia’s next prime minister
A man of ferocious intellect, but with such boyish features and a fringe so feathery that satirists have nicknamed him Tintin, Mr Rudd seems to be almost home and dry, even though the general election campaign is barely at the halfway point.
Mr Howard’s defeat would mean the departure from office of the last of US President George W Bush’s original, staunch allies on Iraq, and the withdrawal of Australia’s 550 combat troops stationed around Baghdad – both factors that are encouraging voters to desert him for Labour.
Even so, the 50-year-old Mr Rudd, a studious former diplomat, is surprising seasoned political observers with the warmth of the response that he is generating on the campaign trail. “Hi, I’m Kevin,” is his customary opening gambit; “Good luck, mate!” the usual response.}
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2007/11/04/woz104.xml
William, thank you for the Poll Bludger website.
Political spin merchants have long used the Australian media cultural cringe to ensure getting stories into the Australian media that would not get a look-in if they were promoted from within Australia. Just get a friendly Right-wing paper in the US or Britain to run a story about how the Libs are going to win, how the Libs are economically responsible and/or how the Australian people know the economy will be ruined if Labor gets in and the Australian media will run it because it has the “authority” of the overseas media name.
It’s known as not being able to think for yourself – a mandatory qualification to be a media executive in Australia.
William, I made a comment a couple of hours ago about Shaun Carney’s column in yesterday’s Age. Has it been moderated? Or lost in the digital ether?
No biggie if it has …
Actually, that UK Telegraph article is not bad.
I wouldn’t mind at all if an Australian paper picked it up and gave it prominence.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2007/11/04/woz104.xml
RX
No the Sportingbet odds have not come in for the Coalition
At start of campaign odds were ALP $1.65 NLP $2.25 and have been steadly moving towards the ALP.
Latest odds ALP $1.32 LNP $ 3.30 is the widest the margain has been
Inner Westie: there was an issue up to about 10 mins. ago with posts appearing earlier than posted (e.g. a post of I made appear back about 300 mins before I posted it). This has been fixed now so maybe just reposting would bring it up on the end of the thread.
Inner Westie, you left that comment on Friday’s Morgan thread which, for some reason, reappeared with today’s date on it. I then proceeded to change the date. So if you track back to Friday’s post and look through the Morgan thread, that’s where it is.
Thanks William … and for what it’s worth, here’s the repost:
Interesting piece by Shaun Carney in yesterday’s Age. He reports that (Nielson pollster) John Stirton has ‘done the averages’ for each federal election since 1996 and discovered that, with the exception of 2001, the difference between the average TPP through the campaign and the actual TPP was merely a fraction of 1%:
“For example, at the last election, between Howard and Mark Latham, the Government’s average two-party preferred vote through the campaign was 52.2 per cent. On election day, it secured 52.7 per cent of the vote.”
So much for The Narrowing …
Carney comment
If people haven’t already noticed, the Senate tickets are up on the AEC site
Here’s my nomination for worst website….both in substance and style:
http://www.onenation.com.au/
Is the guy in the video in his toilet?
Response to Letitend at 2.11pm
Letitend, you need to be careful with that kind of subjective impression of popular opinion. If you took a bunch of Liberal cards and went out to Inala, you’d find lots of friendly people, too. That doesn’t mean the Libs are going to win Oxley. The major parties have supporters everywhere, and they will rally around their candidates during campaigns. Sometimes the fervour of the faithful is in inverse proportion to the fortunes of their party. The biggest and most enthusiastic crowds Labor has ever drawn were during the 1975 campaign, where Whitlam was virtually deified by the crowds, but was still thrashed come election day.
Vera, the widest odds there have ever been. Phew! That’s a relief. Thanks.
Things are looking good.
Just noticed that the AEC has the GVT info up. A quick look reveals that Dems are actually well placed in NSW Dembo – lots of the minors have gone through them before the Greens. Of course the issue will be primary, and will there be much to throw around – noting that groups such as UAP and FFP have placed everybody ahead of the Greens & Dems! Although the CEC has placed the Dems 3rd! Climate Coalition playing footsie with the Fishing Party, and with a 2-2 swap with the Dems, although the CCE seems to prefer the Greens to the Dems and ALP. Noted that most right minors have the Greens after the majors, with the Dems before.
On the issue of Labor’s odds to win overall not being reflected in their favouritism in individual seats, they have just reached the lead in enough seats to win government (well 75 out of 150) with Herbert going over 50% odds.
http://jackman.stanford.edu/oz/Aggregate2007/bettingmarkets/index.php
In S.A.
Family First are preferencing the S.A. Nationals, THEN One Nation!
They have Liberal just above Labor. But they put Penny Wong below the two Labor right candidates!
The D.L.P. and Citizens Electoral Council are preferencing the Liberals
Xenephon has put Labor above Liberal.
New thread open for discussion of the Senate tickets.
Humphries is must be feeling unliked in the ACT – only the LDP have him ahead of Tucker, with no CDP or FFP candidate to provide those christian right votes.
ShowsOn, X has two tickets, one with Labor ahead of Liberal and one vice-versa (ditto Family First and the Greens). So his votes will divide evenly between the two.
If the Coalition loses their senate seat in the ACT, they lose their senate majority INSTANTLY.
In other words, Labor won’t have to wait till July 2008 to scrap Workchoices
But Greeny, I’m sure Andrews has a copy of the manifesto somewhere. It’s just too sensitive to release.
Sky does it again …… Agenda show on air right now (they are live on the weekend now) – panelists Glen Milne and Steve Price. I guess Price has now got his forum and a few minutes worth of fame. Sheeesshh …. leave it alone already ….
I told my 6yo she could watch cartoons for real instead of the cartoons Sky News is showing right now
…..
Yes Yes Yes
:):) …… GO those in the ACT, get out your pencils and do it for the ALP or the Greens or the Democrats for that matter. Both the other two are preferencing the Greens in the Senate …….
Greeny the document is here.
http://web.archive.org/web/20050522044247/www.liberal.org.au/2004_policy/Sept28_Flexibility_and_Productivity_in_the_Workplace_The_Key_to_Jobs.pdf
COALITION POLICY WILL ENSURE HIGHER
PRODUCTIVITY, INCREASED WAGES AND LOWER
INTEREST RATES
Can’t the Garrett “gaffe” be turned to Labor’s advantage?
Surely the idea that things would change if Labor “get in”, is the point for voting for them on environmental issues, so most would be hoping for a marked difference on approach on that issue.
Wouldn’t you be using this to highlight the differences between the two on environmental policies in order to show the positive effects on the environment with a Labor government?
I’d be saying “Yes, sure things will be different for the environment if we get in – we’ll actually do something. Based on the Liberal Party’s history on this issue, they’ll continue to sit on their hands.”
The Liberal policies for the 2004 election are here:
http://web.archive.org/web/20041010032813/www.liberal.org.au/default.cfm?action=2004_policy
Lots of broken promises – lets just change it all when we get re-elected.
I know not much detail about the home owners savings plan is out but as i understand it the tax treatment on the savings is the ‘money shot’ so to speak. 15% concessional treatment as per the salary packaging concesions some employees get by packaging wages into super. But what if this money is saved in a managed fund instead for example? Are these taxed higher on earnings? What is the difference if anyone knows?
The fun on interest rates and inflation begins.
Labor leader Kevin Rudd says he is stunned that Prime Minister John Howard can say he believes inflation is unavoidable.
“What I’m stunned by with Mr Howard today is him hauling up the white flag in the fight against inflation by saying it’s unavoidable,” he said.
“And what I’m stunned by today is Mr Howard owning no responsibility for his Government’s policy when it comes to the five interest rate rises that we’ve seen.”
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/11/04/2081213.htm?section=justin
Kina
That is a terrific response by labor, Howard tried to dodge responsiblity for inflation and interest rate increases in his usual way and got caught out badly.
” PRIME Minister John Howard has said rising inflation is unavoidable in a strong economy affected by drought and high global oil prices.”
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,22700300-29277,00.html
Howard also said “But I do know this: interest rates now are lower than they were at any time under a former Labor government”
Another big lie, there are at least six or seven occassions that interest rates have been lower under labor than they are now under Howard, hope labor picks him up on this as well.
On the 24th of Oct Howard was saying look at the headline interest rate, the CPI is great. Interest rates? Pah no worries.
Two weeks later?
On the topic of work choices: the dog whistle for WC mark 2 is the promise by the Rodent to further reduce unemployment to 3%, then he (cos he won’t resign) can tell us next time that he announced it prior to the election. And when are we going to see the Labor ads with Minchin at the H R Nichols Society and their benevolent plans for the welfare of the Oz worker?
What Howard did this morning shows that the Coalition is just all over the place and does not have a coherent message and that will destroy them in the end.
Winners of elections stay on message and therefore the public are safe with that as their message is clear whilst a party all over the place creates doubt – the
messages are mixed and people don’t know what they stand for.
This is kinda sad but on Sundays while hanging around at my wife’s church I read Pollbludger on my mobile phone.
Reading Howard’s policies from 2004 he is trying to fight the same election in 2007.
He really is stuck in the past.
Trevor – Agreed. Howard’s campaign this time around feels remarkably similar to Latham’s in ‘04. A small band of advisors around the leader, making up strategy on the run and unwilling or unable to share what’s going on with the troops on the ground.
To be honest, I’m surprised. Much as I’ve always detested everything Howard has ever stood for, I thought he had much more strategic nous than this situation suggests.
Just goes to show. That was artifice, too.
Howards lies so much it is getting hard to pin him down, the media seems to have given up discerning what he is saying and exposing him.
Lets hope the voters are aware of his lies.
Anyone know when the Galaxy poll is out?
Finally saw a positive Liberal TV ad.
Just for something different, Jason Koutsoukis has a piece in the age today about humour (or the lack of it) in politics. It is a defence of Garrett, along the following lines:
“The furore over Garrett’s airport encounter with Steve Price, the simian blowhard from radio station 2UE, is almost too silly to be believed.
Price went on air on Friday to make the serious allegation that Garrett told him Labor was not as supportive of Coalition policies as it made out to be. This was during a 60-second conversation in the Qantas Club.
Not an interview, just an off-the-cuff attempt to shake off a garish, attention-seeking blabbermouth. Yet the story got a huge run because politicians aren’t allowed to crack jokes.”
I think the ‘garish attention seeking blabbermouth’ bit a little restrained.
http://www.theage.com.au/news/opinion/no-jokers-in-the-pack/2007/11/03/1193619198609.html
Don’t know if my original post on the subject got lost or not… I’m confused…
… but you hadda love the way Howard admitted he had to closely re-read his own policies from 2004 in order to dig up some vague references to WorkChoices.
And there he found them (according to him)… no ads, no policy announcements, no spruiking, no publicity at the time… buried in the fine print for all to see.
Lovely.
M. Snakeboy – I suspect you’re spot on. The Abbott thing the other day had that air to it. I wonder how much say Hyacinth has in things on a day to day basis this time around? Or maybe it’s just the old bloke deciding the ‘team’ aren’t up to it and he has to decide everything. I can just imagine it.
The advertiser has been showing big swings to Labor across Adelaide, 6% in Kingston, 10% in Hindmarsh, 12-14% in Adelaide and now 8% in Wakefield. With those sort of swings Labor has a chance of winning Sturt and Boothby.
Here it is (transcipt’s up):
What about the other 2,999 pages of legislation? Where did he mention what’s in them?
I love the way Howard starts out on WorkChoices (the subject of Cassidy’s question) and before the end of ther paragraph has segued on to “reducing the discrepancies between the different state jurisdictions,” as if that’s what WorkChoices is all about.
As the old saying goes, “everything old is new again”. Howard believes that if it worked for John Gorton and has previously worked for him, it must work again.
{Back in 1969, there was a strong feeling that the government had been in office too long – a staggering 20 years – and was bereft of fresh ideas. It had committed Australian troops to an unpopular war in Vietnam, drawing complaints that the government was toadying up to Washington.
The parallels do not end there. The Labor Party was led by a popular moderniser, Gough Whitlam, who campaigned on a raft of forward-thinking policies. He vowed, for instance, to ditch the “White Australia” immigration policy.
Eventually, though, he was beaten by a Liberal Party which successfully hammered home its core message that the economy would not be safe in Labor hands and that Mr Whitlam would be bullied by the unions. }
http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereporters/nickbryant/
Wrap up of Don’s Party. But not this year, it is going to be Rudd’s Party.
Howard’s 2004 policy talks about strengthening the Industrial Relations Commission.
Ooops he forgot that one this morning.
New Lib add on ABC web site.
http://www.abc.net.au/default.htm
I just watched the Insiders interview, Howard looks desperate, talks desperate and is desperate.
On this performance I really can’t see Howard breaking through he is just too negative, everything he does is right, everything the opposition does is wrong really people aren’t stupid and this is not 2004 and Kevin Rudd is not Mark Lathan, the 2004 election strategy will not work in 2007 because he is up against a different opponent with different tactics, game over.
Scorpio, nice one.
On the betting markets, if you haven’t seen Bryan’s latest graphical compilation of the odds, I recommend you do so.
It shows very clearly the linear decline in the probability of a Coalition victory, as well as the buffoonery that accompanies markets (of all types) from time to time. The over-reaction to the Howard – Costello business, and then the same over-reaction to “the narrowing” in the first week of the campaign.
When you take out the buffoonery, the movement in the market is clear and unmistakable.
http://www.ozpolitics.info/blog/
Also, for those of you who are concerned about the overall market suggesting the ALP is a 75% chance, but the individual seats show the ALP ahead in only 75, or whatever the current count is: don’t be concerned. The only odds that matter are the overall probabilities for winning the election, the individual seats probabilities will only be of use on election eve. Until then they are like early Melbourne Cup markets, a pointer but not very reliable.
Whatever the overall odds are on election eve, will be almost identically matched by the number of seats the ALP leads in and it won’t be 75 it will be a great deal more.
saturday night the pm kicks back and read’s liberal’s 2004 election policy,
he must have had a list of questions the insiders were going to ask this morning or was he reflecting on the glory of doing latham
James J, what ad was that??
Is it the one on their site where a grandma type says if you don’t remember how bad things were under Labor to ask your parents?
LOL
Just asking a question?
Could the Liberals anti-union campaign be failing because it is too obscure to anyone under 40?
Scorpio that AWA your rights at work Youtube on the ABC site can be found here:
http://au.youtube.com/watch?v=yxKjNos-UVA
I recommend it – damn funny and direct. Great for late night viewing on TV
Grog, check out the ABC one in my last post!
Bushfire Bill, the thing that grabs me is that Howard et. al. have started calling their IR policy “Workchoices” again. Whatever happened to the policy that dare not speak its name? Perhaps they found that people kept referring to it by its given name and so had no choice but to own it again.
Like a family embarrassed by a wayward son in gaol.
Gold, scorpio. Pure gold.
The Nats are still trying to influence the Reserve Bank Board.
{Federal Nationals leader Mark Vaile has again warned of the impact an interest rate rise will have on farmers.
Mr Vaile has told Channel Ten that he is simply stating the facts, and is not trying to put pressure on the Reserve Bank.
“Interest rate rises affect different people in different ways, but they will disproportionately affect farming families who are currently suffering from severe drought with the debt burden they are carrying,” he said. }
http://www.bigpond.com/news/business/content/20071104/2081097.asp
Grog: No it wasnt that one. It was a new one where they actually talked about some of their key policy initiatives. They managed not to attack labor!
Another stunt from Kevin Rudd today with his housing policy, perhaps this time if he lies to the family who open their home up for Ruddmania that he will admit it and apologise like he and Swan failed to do for Rosana Harris. How the media didn’t crucify Rudd for that blunder ill never know?
There was a politics Website which I stumbled across recently in which contributors were suggesting the headlines that Denis Shanahan might compose for The Australian on 26th November, subsequent to the defeat of the Howard Govt. Comments similar to Billy Snedden in 1974 (”We didn’t lose the election, we just didn’t win enough seats”) were posted. There were some really wonderful creative comments which gave me a lot of laughs. Unfortunately I didn’t bookmark the site and now I can’t find it. Can anyone help me re-locate the “Denis Shanahan competition” Website?
Thanks in anticipation
Now Nick Minchin is undermuining Howard’s two steps forward/one step backwards explanation on the Libs and Labors position on interest rates and whether or not one or the other will cause them to go up. Keep it coming.
{Finance Minister Nick Minchin denied that the tax cuts or Labor’s $31 billion commitment will add to inflationary pressures next year.
“There are many economists that share our view that these tax cuts we have announced and that Labor has effectively mirrored will not be inflationary,” he told Sky News. }
http://www.theage.com.au/news/National/Howard-effectively-concedes-rate-rise/2007/11/04/1194117859046.html
Libs to sell Medibank – dork Minchin.
This is fun from the ABC site – the entirely accurate coffee bea poll.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/11/04/2081133.htm?site=elections/federal/2007
Glen,
It’s too late for that stuff now. The caravan has moved on.
Currently it’s moving at such a rapid pace, the media and the rest of us are finding it increasingly difficult to keep up.
Glen, how many times do we have to discredit your beatup of that one? Give it a rest.
The major thing about the Rudd first home savings stuff is that it was done in consultation with the HIA. So when the lazy journalists look up who to get to comment on it they ring the HIA – who in turn will back it 100%
Masterstroke.
Dario, this stunt may have been genuine today, but you yourself cannot run away from that fact that Rudd, Swan and Plibersek all lied to Rosana Harris about their rental policy. Dario either they all didnt understand their rental policy or they lied to Rosana Harris, i don’t know which is worse. At least if Howard has a policy he follows through with in and isnt interested in stunts or slogans.
We had a the big roads policy from the tories next childcare and probably then housing and then more health and education initiatives.
Oh and Medibank should be sold.
Ha ruawake you have just proven Labor can’t come up with its own policies, either the Coalition writes 95% of them or they get big business to write their policies like HIA. Another own goal.
Glen, the media didn’t crucify Rudd for that because they mis-heard what he said. They realised that and stopped attacking him. Perhaps you should do the same.
“Oh and Medibank should be sold.”
And the ABC and SBS and Australia Post?
Grasping at straws mate.
Weather Alert!
Nowhere to hide, nowhere to run to!
{Earlier, Finance Minister Nick Minchin said the coalition would go ahead with the sale of Medibank Private in late 2008 to resolve a conflict of interest for the Government as regulator of the private health insurance industry.
“We do believe that the Government has a very bad conflict of interest being the regulator of private health insurance but owning one of the private health insurance companies and, in this case, the biggest one,” he told Sky News.
“We are obviously seeking a mandate for it and we have kept our preparations to a minimum to this point, but we hope that if we are elected we will sell it in late 2008.”
Proceeds from the sale will be added to the $2.5 billion already in the health and medical infrastructure fund.
“We are not selling the asset just to get the money,” he said.
Mr Tanner told Sky News that a Rudd Government does not intend to sell Medibank Private.
“It’s very interesting that Senator Minchin trots out this conflict of interest excuse as to why the Medibank Private should be privatised.”
He said the Government also regulated postal services and broadcasting, but also owned Australia Post, the ABC and SBS.
“So on Senator Minchin’s logic it is going to privatise Australia Post, the ABC and SBS,” Mr Tanner said}
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,22700796-29277,00.html
“I just watched the Insiders interview, Howard looks desperate, talks desperate and is desperate.” AM
Does he ever, he is coming across as being really nasty.
At least Glen, Howard doesn’t have to worry about Iraq anymore.
{The war in Iraq has been wonBy Andrew Bolt
November 02, 2007 01:00am
Article from: Font size: + -
Send this article: Print Email
THERE is a reason Iraq has almost disappeared as an election issue.
Here it is: The battle is actually over. Iraq has been won.
I know this will seem to many of you an insane claim. Ridiculous!
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,22689634-5007146,00.html
Well not the ABC, and not Australia Post but if a buck is to be made and we can use the money on infrastructure i dont see a problem. Obviously Labor doesnt have a problem with it either after all Keating and Hawke sold off Qantas and the Commonwealth Bank in the 80s and 90s or maybe they were so much in debt they needed $$ to pay the bills?
Not the other Tim have you listened to what Rudd said?
He said words to the effect of “How much is your rent” “240 a week” “oh so you’re effectively going to get 50 off a month”, followed up by Swan telling her she’d get off the rent merry-go-round with Labor’s policy; but failed to note she’d get nothing from that policy as it’s for new houses built and only for 50,000 not the supposed 500,000 renters in strife.
“Mission Accomplished”
Posted by: George W. Bush of U.S.A 4:48pm today
Scorpio clearly the war in Iraq has not been won, but you cannot deny that casualties have been reduced significantly in the past few months. I should hope you are pleased with this development and hopeful that it will last.
I wonder how many Labor Lovers are praying for a rate rise??
‘Words to the effect’ eh Glen? Ahhh, Howard would be so proud.
I like the way that these arrogant twits like to try and tell everyone else how to run their own business when they can’t even run their own.
Downer calls for return to democracy in Pakistan
{FOREIGN Minister Alexander Downer has urged a swift return to democratic rule in Pakistan following President Pervez Musharraf’s declaration of a state of emergency.}
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,22700545-29277,00.html
You know what I find so amazing about the government? It’s that even after 6 months of consistent polling pointing towards an inevitable Labor Landslide win, Howard and Co still cannot admit that made some serious mistakes in their time. They still think they are a great government and it is a mystery why the polls are against them. Newsflash! GOOD GOVERNMENTS DON’T LOSE LANDSLIDE ELECTIONS!
By the way, what has happened to Alexander Downer? I mean Tony Abbott is trying valiantly to fill his role, but let’s face it; No-one campaigns better (for the opposition) than Downer. He is the master!
Cmon Dario as if i can find the exact words but i watched Insiders that week it blew up on Rudd and they had the interview and i saw Question Time in which Deputy Dawg walloped Rudd about lying to Rosana Harris.
This will do Howard’s Neucler Reactor policy a bit of damage. Especially since Qld will be opening up a couple of greenhouse gas friendly “Gas Powered” stations in the near future too.
{A NORTH-WEST Queensland town is set to become the first in the state to completely rely on solar power within two years.
Premier Anna Bligh today said Cloncurry had been chosen as the site for a “ground-breaking” $7 illion solar thermal power station.
“We’re going to build a 10-megawatt solar thermal power station,” Ms Bligh said in a statement.
“It’s a real breakthrough for electricity generation.”
Ms Bligh, who is in Cloncurry for her first community cabinet meeting as Premier, said the power station would keep generating electricity even when the sun was not shining – a vague prospect in the sun-drenched northern town. }
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,22700542-29277,00.html
It’s going to be great to see the end of the Rodents reign in just 13 days time. So what genuinely good things has the dessicated coconut done in the last 11 years:
- Changes to the Family Law Act. (should go further to stop greedy leaches taking your money).
- 50% discount on capital gains tax. (should be totally abolished).
These are positive policies the government should be implementing Glen instead of trying to fool people with everything. Gee they might even improve in the polls.
Actually Rudd should get in first with the above excellent (and vote winning) initiatives.
Terry: Its from http://www.ozelection2007.info
Glen on Insiders today it sounded like Howard was praying for a rate rise.
glen
costello is called deputy dawg cos he is howards bitch
thought you would like to know
(dont go getting jealous now you hear!)
“I wonder how many Labor Lovers are praying for a rate rise??”
Glen we are going to kick ass without one, you should be asking “How many Howard huggers are s*ittng themselves”.
Who do you trust and all that.
Gun laws. That’s it.
Glen,
wow, it’s like reading a commercial.
Posted by: linda of melbourne
Since when did 760 dead civilians in a month indicate the war is over? Oh I know, because they were Iraqi civilians, which as we all know don’t count as much as say, Australian civilians. Mike Carlton is right. Bolt you truly are Melbourne’s village idiot.
Posted by: Warren Andrews of Sydney
Don’t you just love it.
Glen at 6:51 pm
Glen, if you privatise Medibank private while you are running a 30% health insurance rebate, the only weapon the government has left to control costs in the health insurance market is the price rise veto. Yet with health inflation running about 2 and a bit times general inflation (because of technology costs), there will always be constant pressure on health insurance premiums to rise.
If those premium rises are vetoed, the health insurance players wont simply take a hit to their bottom line, they’ll reduce converage while maintaining price levels.
With Medibank Private in government hands, pressure can be exerted on them to run as efficiently as possible, and increase cost competition within the broader health insurance market, thereby preventing inefficient health insurance companies from cutting coverage under the threat of Medibank taking their market share.
If you are running a highly bastardised health insurance system that Howard has created, the last economically rational thing you would do would be to privatise your greatest vehicle for competitive cost control. Health insurance is a quite complicated industry with the way it’s regulated and unfortunately a lot of people, unfortunately including most of those in the government, don’t seem to understand a great lot about it.
I’ve always thought Nick Minchin was a complete and utter economic ignoramus. For some reason he manages to fool an awful lot of people that should know better, but privatising Medibank Private, considering the current regulatory and subsidy arrangement, is incompetence of the highest order – unless of course you *want* the taxpayer to provide the profit levels of the health insurance industry and you *want* lower service and coverage levels for higher costs.
Wot Possum said with bells on.
Possum
I have heard it said from senior libs mouth
“if they aint got the money its their fault and we are not here to act as a crutch’”
this attitude is not uncommon among the Masterclass/born to rule set
re my previous post, 49%, that’s right 49% of marriages end in divorce.
Capital Gains Tax severely disadvantages low to middle income earners who may make sound investing decisions to try to get ahead. Sure the rich also benefit but they should be got at in other ways such as tightening loop holes in the tax laws.
Centre, halving CGT has resulted in an almost tripling in the percentage of housing owned by investors as opposed to owner-occupiers. Is it any wonder house prices have gone through the roof?
Possum, please don’t raise the bar to high for Glen.
When Howard said this on Insiders:
“Policy is more important than people.”
I think he became the first PM to admit he was redundant.
Dario, I have no doubt that abolishing CGT would have minimal impact on housing prices. Housing prices are affected by supply and demand.
{Howard’s “Nuclear” Reactor policy}
I did mean to correct it before submitting. But?
“Housing prices are affected by supply and demand. ”
Wow I never knew that?
Tried getting a brickie lately? It is also affected by availability of the guys who build stuff.
Howard fudges figures on apprenticeships – Cert 1 in creative basket weaving is an apprentice.
Thats why Rudd is banging on about a Skills crisis.
I remember a poster on Tim Dunlop’s site a while back skiting about how he had bought 4 houses using Howard’s “first home owners grant”.
When challenged about it he said he had bought houses under the grant for his children.
A day or two later, on a thread about workchoices, he stated that his income was around $40k per year.
If there was a lot of this going on, especially as we saw on current affairs programs, of people with 14 and 18 properties, negatively geared, no wonder the housing market soared.
A Government cannot allow this amount of money into a market in such a short period without negative ramifications showing up just as quickly. Now the genie is out of the bottle, it will be a slow, painful process that will put it back where it belongs.
The average home owner will be all the poorer for it and will come to hold the Howard Government in contempt in coming years when the crash in home values comes.
Also abolishing CGT would be great for business, investment and more jobs. But no, Glen, what does this government dish out? Work2choices. Coco wants you to work longer and for less! That’s really great for productivity, isn’t it Glen. And you blokes call yourselves good economic managers, hah!
Ruawake, cost of production directly affects housing, exactly the same way as the GST. But yes you probably know that.
Yes Scorpio. I’m sure there are lots of people who have bought a large number of properties. And they are going to do their money if prices fall.
Evening all. Lovely day of panic on the Tory’s side of the fence. Seems our poor Glen has misplaced his pills. No matter, his postings make Howard look sober and controlled, perhaps this is his intention? The old comparison trick eh.
No mention of tomorrow’s Galaxy in the media yet, was it out at midnight last time? Or do us poll nuts get an early mark?
Centre, one of the biggest causes of the increase price of housing, was the halving of the CGT and the other was the additional 1st home owners bonus of $7,000 offered to all and sundry.
Bob Baldwin – Paterson has finally pulled the cheque book out.
TV ads in high rotation – disturbing Kath and Kim. & Thank god your here.
3 different ads.
Margin 6.3%.
Muskiemp, I believe that the increase of housing prices was due to economic growth, the GST, and poor decision making on the part of the investor.
Some will agree with you and some will agree with me.
Hmm, someone put some big money down on LNP to force Centrebet to quickly shorten their price from 3.70 into 3.50 in the last half hour. Makes me wonder about tomorrow’s Galaxy.
Yer, Hopefully it was just a correction due to previous bets made after the garrett incident. but yer, their are going to be inevitable worries in the final 3 weeks. REgardless, there is gong to be a massive injection of talent in the ALP after the election
Let it end
Could be tightening the odds to match Sporting bet $3.50 or Portland Bet $3.30.
When and where can we expect 1st news on Galaxy? Will it be 930 on Sky or later?
That betting movements a worry. Something is afoot and I dont think Im going to like it
Centrebet is back out to Coalition $3.55 – not sure what that means…
Wouldn’t the number of bets placed be a better indication than the value of bets?
And the Coalition is back down to $3.50 on Centrebet (absolutely no movement on Sportingbet).
There must be a fairly high volume being wagered on Centrebet tonight. Guess we’ll see what’s happening when the next poll comes out…
moved bak to 3:50, labor at 1:31
At Sportsbet
Labor 1.28
Coalition 3.70
sportingbet has coalition at 3.30, portland at 3.50.
suppose if there was some inside knowledge, then centrebet was by far the best value at $3.70 before this little plunge.
Let it end,
$3.50 is still formidably high odds to overcome in only three weeks, especially in a two-horse race. Remember that in 2004, Latham was never outright favourite with the punters, even though the polls seemed to indicate otherwise. Big money doesn’t lie.
Centrebet were offering the best odds therefore would have been attracting the largest bets on the coalition. If the odds fall below the next best price group, which appears to be 3.50 at the moment, the alarm bells can start ringing.
Galaxy poll of 54/46 2PP would be a good result.
Kina – that’s good news if it hasn’t moved in for the libs.
If there is some sort of insiders plunge on Galaxy, look for Sportsbet to firm for the govt over the next copuple of hours. Now Centrebet is in, Sportsbet is the value.
I predict Galaxy 53-47 TPP. To those worrying about what the betting market movements mean, remember that they adjust odds to make sure that they will be covered no matter what. All the money on Labor probably forced them to try and attract punters on the Coalition. You’ve got to admit: 3.70 is a nice price for those tempted to back Howard. Obviously the price was right for them to take the plunge. Of course, I could be wrong and Galaxy could be 52-48 (possibly push-polled after “asking” about the effect of the Garrett statement).
Good or bad I wouldn’t take the Galaxy too seriously – it has been odd this year.
Burgey, spot on.
Nothing on Agenda re Galaxy tomorrow.
That’s a bit surprising…
If they had anything interesting surely they would have shown?
I would have thought Briggs was Spears’ best mate these days
I’d venture to say that if the Poll were in any way favourable to the Coalition, it would have been leaked on agenda. David Speers wouldn’t be able to help himself.
You would think the pollster would pay to have early access to poll results so they don’t get caught out.
Hopefully no early word on Galaxy may mean it is not good for the Government? We live in hope.
Don’t know if this has been put up yet or not. Various people have wondered about the Labor campaign ads. Apparently, the first of them hit the airwaves today. This article from the SMH explains some more about what is coming in the next 3 weeks.
“LABOR’S final election campaign assault will be aimed at young mums, with the unleashing today of TV ads depicting Prime Minister John Howard as being “out of touch ….. Labor has identified the Coalition’s 11 years in office, coupled with ballooning household and mortgage costs, as vulnerabilities for the 68-year-old Prime Minister, father to three adults.
Labor campaign insiders said the series of ads, which will underpin Labor’s final tactical assault against Mr Howard and his Government, would run until the end of the campaign. The launch signals Labor is preparing to make its final pitch to battling family voters in the volatile 25- to 40-year-old age group on the bread-and-butter issues traditionally claimed by the Coalition.
Labor’s national secretary and campaign director, Tim Gartrell, said the ads clearly demonstrated how much Mr Howard and his 11-year-old Government had lost touch with working families.”
http://www.smh.com.au/news/federal-election-2007-news/labor-sends-in-mum-with-attitude/2007/11/03/1193619200063.html
On most recent glance, the betting markets are moving slightly 2 to Labor 1 to Coalition, IAS has 1.37v3.25 (+1c-5c), Sportbet is 1.28v3.70 (+0c+10c), SportsAcumen 1.32v3.35 (-2c+10c). I dont think we can conclude anything from these developments.
Of course there was no word of Galaxy on Agenda tonight. The 9:30pm edition was a replay of this afternoon’s show. It even had the word ‘replay’ displayed on the top left hand corner of the screen.
Ross Gittens wrote a while back a very succinct article in the SMH about housing affordability and the role of immigration in pushing up house prices.The Howard Government is allowing a record number of immigrants to enter Australia. The main affect of record immigration has been to limit wage growth by increasing competition for jobs and lowering skill shortages.
There is a downside to this particular tactic. There is far greater demand for housing and rentals. Australia is not building enough houses and this demand has forced prices up.
The environmental cost of building houses on fertile land that once provided food to local markets is another downside to this “Go for Growth” stupidity.
I would like to see a Government that limits severely immigration. At least Rudd is on the right track with training locals rather than relying on imported skills.
For the moment the other agencies seem to be pretty quite but Centrebet is jumping around a bit. Maybe as suggested they are just adjusting their odds and there is nothing to it.
Kina, your right about Galaxy being a bit odd of late, they have the happy knack of coming up with a “narrowing” whenever the Libs really need a boost. Saw Briggs actually complaining on Sky that Newspoll ruined the week for the coalition with their bad result.
“I can’t go to Melbourne for the cup,” Mr Howard told reporters in Sydney.
“I’ll be spending Melbourne Cup day elsewhere.”
http://news.ninemsn.com.au/article.aspx?id=317596
Looks like Howard will be flat out on the hustings in Bennalong, Tuesday.
Or attending the RBA Meeting as an observer
Looks like the PM is “busy” on Tuesday:
http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,22702326-5005961,00.html
Perhaps he is planning on waiting outside The Reserve Bank with a baseball bat.
Are we all scanning for the Galaxy Poll??
Not Happy, BrissyRod!
“I dont think we can conclude anything from these developments.”
Correct Tofk, they are fluctuations in a market that will become increasingly more volatile till the result is absolutely beyond doubt, say by the morning news cycle on Friday Nov 3. when big punters/savvy investors will be all over the overnight odds-on certainty.
If ALP suddenly drift out to $1.70 anytime between now and then, concern might be in order. Till then I suggest that sweating minor “fluccies” is not woth the salt, and the big picture is the one that tells the story.
William – how is the bandwidth fund going?
Zedder you raise a valid point in regards to immigration being unsustainable under Howard who, despite his rhetoric, has presieded over the highest immigration rate in contemporary history. Environmental sustainability, in terms of food and water supply, is a powerful argument for immigration restriction from the left. How it can be properly implemented seemlessly is an issue for debate though.
Thats the conclusion Im leaning towards enemy. It looks static, while there was a definite move towards Labor on thursday night before AC was released.
Play here – I don’t know when Morgan did the polling but it is very pro-Labor.
Choose your electorare
http://www.federalelection.com.au/electorates/adelaide/
None of them have changed – if there was big insider news it would have had an effect by now.
I was listening to red-neck radio 3AW’s news tonight and Steve Price was defending himself against allegations of having a political agenda in that his wife works for Hockey. All of a sudden his cred is shot.
Howard is staying away from the Melbourne Cup for two good reasons.
There is more coming out on the Equine Flu, warnings that Howard and co ignored about privatising the quaranteen service, their inadequate first response to the crisis, no vaccine in the country, Vaille thinking it could be cured with one injection. Many people have been hard hit by their ineptude.
Howard would risk facing an angry crowd composed of horse owners, trainers, jockeys, attendants, ground workers, staff and punters. Getting loudly booed on national TV on Melbourne Cup day is not a good image in the middle of the election campaign.
It would also not be a good image look to be whooping it up at the Cup and have your picture across the papers the next day showing you drinking champers under the headline RBA raises interest rates.
Howard will work in his office and get a nice shot of him at his desk on Melbourne Cup day.
Maybe he will be trying to think of ways to combat inflation, oops no, he’s raised the white flag on that.
Andrew Robb also looks like he might have some serious worries in Goldstein…
http://www.federalelection.com.au/electorates/goldstein/
He seems to have history too – someone said he had video of Latham’s bucks party when he did not.
Saffron should do another joke on him.
According to Morgan the current (2pp) polling for Solomon is
L-NP 35%
ALP 65%
And for Lingiari it is
L-NP 54%
ALP 46%
Both those sets of numbers are difficult to believe.
Wasn’t ESJ raving on about having his own blog site at the GG starting Saturday?
He mentioned it a number of times Friday night, but after having a good look there, I could only see the usual suspects with their regular blogs.
Has anyone got any info on this at all?
Scorpio, believing something ESJ said was your first mistake…
ESJ has joined the neocon press?
{Saffron should do another joke on him.}
Kina, I would hazard a guess that it will be open season on Steve Price from now on.
Could be a good target for the Chaser crew and he would go well on Rove Live, especially if he is p*ssed.
I think his days as a political pundit are finished though. Fancy too, getting offside with 60% of your listening audience or potential audience.
What a tool.
{Scorpio, believing something ESJ said was your first mistake…}
I never said I believed him.
Just that he has been conspicuous by his absence.
I checked the figures for my electorate if Capricornia.
Roy Morgan Two Party Preferred
Total L-NP T.P.P 28% Total ALP T.P.P 72%
Would love to see figures like that in about 110 electorates.
The libs and Bookies would break out in hives.
Good to hear!
These are the figures for Bennalong. Mmmmm, don’t look quite right to me.
Total L-NP T.P.P 42% Total ALP T.P.P 58%
Grayndler: 86/14 TPP
Galaxy out… 54-46
http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,22702557-952,00.html
Galaxy link
http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,22702557-952,00.html
That is a fantastic set of numbers, the telegraph wont be hard to read tommorow and with time running out, it will be fun to see wat the GG and conservative commentators have to say now. Kroger has little to spin out of this
Galaxy have been mean on the Labor primary all year in comparison to Newspoll and AC Neilsen. 54/46 for Galaxy is probably 55/45 otherwise.
In other words basically little change since the begining of the campaign.