Today’s News Limited tabloids bring a nationwide Galaxy poll conducted from Friday through to Sunday, showing Labor’s leading increasing to 54-46 from 53-47 a fortnight ago. Sample was 1010; full details available here.
| TWO-PARTY | PRIMARY | ||||
| ALP | LNP | ALP | LNP | ||
|
Nov 4
|
54 | 46 | 45 | 42 | |
|
Oct 19
|
53 | 47 | 45 | 43 | |
|
Sept 24
|
56 | 44 | 46 | 40 | |
|
Aug 27
|
57 | 43 | 47 | 39 | |
|
July 30
|
54 | 46 | 44 | 41 | |
|
July 2
|
55 | 45 | 46 | 41 | |
|
June 4
|
53 | 47 | 44 | 42 | |
|
May 14
|
57 | 43 | 49 | 39 | |
|
April 23
|
58 | 42 | 49 | 37 | |
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662 Comments
This is wrong! The National Party vote is too low
(Just getting in early)
Line honours? Again, flatlining, time of death yet to be confirmed
damn, had to write something vaguely interesting didnt I
Coming from Galaxy these are pretty good numbers
With an interest rate rise to come, these are beautiful numbers. This week may well be the ‘R.I.P.’ week for John Howard.
It was taken Sat/Sun? No damage from the “Garret Gaffe” then?
According to CM, Coalitions primary has dropped, nothing about Labor’s or minor parties
Anything over 53 on election day is a bonus. 54 would be astonishing.
Galaxy have been understating Labor’s primary vote for months in comparison to the other major polls. Does anyone know what it is on this occasion?
Still we only have to make up 2% on 2PP before the Coalition has a chance at victory we aren’t licked yet!
The article seemed to imply it was Sat and Sun.
It’s the narrowing……of the Libs chances. !
Darn I agree ……these are pretty good numbers for the ALP coming from Galaxy. If as reported the Libs Primary vote has dropped that is not good news for the PM. The devil will be in the details.
And of course the National Party vote is too low. We don’t know what it is at this stage, but whatever figure it is, is too low by 2 or 3%. So really this poll is 50/50.
good news
We’ll probably have to wait until the treeware edition hits the pavement, darn.
So glad this isn’t a low-flying rogue. My blood pressure likes the steady beat from the Drums of Doom.
On face value good numbers for Labor (though it would be good to have more detail).
Hard to see where Libs are going to get the 2-3 extra %age points they need between now and Nov 24.
Poor Glen, only another 20 days of hope left lol.
Im with you Sondeo, if the coalitions primary has fallen as reported, in a pollster which consistently understates ALP primary in comparison to the others (not sure why, sampling practice maybe?), then there is indeed an existential problem facing this sorry excuse for a government. Puts a smile on my face, for now.
Even if the Coalitions primary vote has dropped, on the TPP figures it wouldn’t be by much and when taking into account MOE it would just be the same old result we have been looking at for quite a while now.
87 ALP to 61 LNP if the swing is uniform.
Let It End there are 20 days between disaster and elation i am hoping for the later of the two but if the former happens then ill be scrambling and pushing my way towards getting into a lifeboat off SS Howard and try to swim to safety.
That 2-3 extra %age points is only what is needed to get them within shouting distance. Not likely to happen given the ammo Labor has to unleash and the interest rate hike that will likely occur.
“HOWARD STALLS” – good effort from the CM. Maybe Rupert has flicked the switch?
Drop by, yes, it’s just the same old result. 60 or so polls in a row.
As election day gets closer the Liberals’ chances get smaller.
Labor is holding fire, apart from the Garrett & Garrett show their discipline is remarkable, when compared to previous elections. Howards been using a jackhammer, and still no wedge.
*YAWN*
It would appear the polls are honing in on a 55 – 45 result.
Just 24 hours until newspoll
What do people make of Howard planning not to attend the Melbourne Cup?
I hope Rudd goes, just for the big race.
To me this is another sign of how desperate Howard is – marginal seat campaigning has over taken visiting a major Australian cultural event.
Of course this is in the MoE of all the other polls. No change. SS Howard is heading for the rocks.
Glen (21)- you can always seek refugee status aboard the good ship Labor.
Portland and Centrebet both now have the ALP favourites to win 16 seats. Expect more to firm into favouritism over next few days, especially Page, Deakin, LaTrobe, Bowman
I suspect he doesn’t want to be booed or worst seen drinking chardy which celeb while the RBA meets over rates
Glen, lol, that’s one way of looking at it, at least your keeping a sense of humour.
Howie should campaign in WA, they don’t have a public holiday and its business as usual over there ShowsOn.
Glen, will you be swiming to Christmas Island or Nauru?
About the only interesting thing in these numbers is the question, which pollster do ya trust, punk?
nah we decide who gets on our good ship and under what circumstances they come…
Yes, one wonders what the Newspoll will show. Much of the same probably, hopefully slightly better. The better the ALP figures, the more entertaining the “Shana” is.
ShowsOn,
Not sure Howard had that much choice about the Cup. If he went it would not be that good a look, given the state of the campaign.
What will be fascinating will be to see what spin the Govt tries to put on the interest rate rise (assuming it happens). They’ll have something ready.
The only poll numbers I trust are the ones coming out of Anthony’s computer in 20 days time
Gary Bruce (28) I think the SS Howard has already hit the rocks and is taking water fast.
Okay first off where does this “Galaxy is understating Labors primary vote” BS come from???
Take the numbers guys and deal with them, they probably are accurate. Love em or hate em, Galaxy was the closest poll to the actual election outcome last time. Just because you don’t like the results you don’t add a couple of % points for your team… otherwise you fall into the kook world of Glen.
Secondly it will be interesting to see the effects of the Interest Rate rise. Don’t presume this will benefit Labor, if there is anything you can’t underestimate it’s the stupidity of the average voter.
31
BMWofVictoria Says:
I suspect he doesn’t want to be booed or worst seen drinking chardy which celeb while the RBA meets over rates.
And then there is the association with the equine flu fiasco.
Howard looked terrible and desperate on Insiders today, he won’t be looking any better tomorrow with this result on top of the Bennelong polls.
Glen, Im sure your advise to the old man might be more helpful than anyone whose actually advising him now. That, or he’s just not listening.
Agree with 41, can’t see any reason to distrust Galaxy at all.
I posted this youtube link the other day, but it got lost in the great pollbludger meltdown.’
Speaking of Rats and Sinking Ships – May I present this little ditty by Flash & The Pan.
http://au.youtube.com/watch?v=gK4Spx-mCNQ
Well.. I could suggest that Glen seeks refuge in the US, but I won’t be that cruel.
Galaxy is showing a 6% swing while Newspoll and Nelson are showing 7% and Morgan showing 9%
Galaxy was closest on TPP, not primary. Compare the polls, Galaxy is 3% below Newspoll and AC, 4% below Morgan (but Morgan is just a Menshevik putsch isnt it?)
Considering all,it’s business as usual,my tip,the ALP primary vote is holding up fine,this is another appalling poll for the coalition.
And,BTW,who says the Nations vote can’t collapse as well.After all,our country cousins have to wake up one day to what’s been happening to them curtesy of the Nationals for the past 15 years.Sooner or later the extent of the betrayal has to become apparent.November 24 may well contain the overdue seeds for the implosion of the NPA.Let’s wait and see.
Glen, I must say I admire your loyalty and persistence even in the face of adversity. I don’t know how you find the inspiration to come on here and cop all this carry on. If our positions were reversed I don’t think you’d find me here.
I’ll pay that one jimmy (36)
Howard was at his most desperate on Insiders claiming that it is IMPOSSIBLE to curb inflation, but that the government would be better at it than Labor.
His inflation combating policies this year haven’t worked very well…
Hey if its disaster and defeat id rather go down fighting with a smile on my face anyway if worse comes to worse and we have KR for 6-9 years meh you’ve got to deal with it and hopefully the sky won’t fall in, but with Rooster as Treasurer uggggh!.
Nevertheless you guys it aint over till its over, its almost over but its not over just yet. It is fair to say if the polls are like this in the second last week into the election ill be checking the emergency drill sheet so i know where the life boats are just in case i need to get off SS Howie. But i still wont concede we’ve lost it just yet. Still im hoping Newspoll bucks the trend and records something from Garrett-gate, if not im pinning my hopes on a brilliant child care or housing policy.
Not stating a distrust for Galaxy, just noting the disparity in the primary figures. They do come up with similar TPP to the others though.
The national vote down, well this isn’t hard to believe considering the apparent swing to the ALP in Queensland and northern NSW
Well, the cool thing is on election day we finally get to find out which poll company was most accurate.
Seriously though, there were some comments by Possum backed up by some real maths that suggested Galaxy is getting the primary about right but underestimating the 2PP.
Possum, if you’re here.. what was it you said?
But Glen I’m sure just before the meltdown I read you conceed, o dear that post as been last for ever lol : )
Or something like that.. urgh.. my brain hurts.. my brain hurts..
No No Frank its more like this, http://au.youtube.com/watch?v=F54rqDh2mWA
Hopefully, on recent figures (without the soft ALP bs) Morgan. Nothing like annihilation to put a smile on ya face. But on current figures, im not picky.
Does Galaxy use the distribution from last election? Or do they ask?
TofK, the word is ‘whomping’
Galaxy have been mean on the Labor primary all year in comparison to Newspoll and AC Neilsen. 54/46 for Galaxy is probably 55/45 otherwise.
In other words basically little change since the begining of the campaign.
There is still a chance then that Rudd could ‘win’ this campaign and pinch a little extra.
LaborVoter (41) I was simply stating a fact. Galaxy HAS been understating the Labor primary vote in relation to the other major polls since June. Nielsen, Newspoll and Morgan have all had it at 47 – 49%, while except for one month at 47% Galaxy have had it at 44-46%. With the evidence we have seen of push polling from Galaxy in a number of its polls, I know which ones I would have more confidence in.
Ill take any word, as long as it equates to the same conclusion: Howard out, Rudd in. No more, please God NO MORE!!!
Well Gary i must say i find it a bit of a downer that my comrades in arms Nostro and Steven Kaye hardly pop up unless we peg back some ground in the polls. But if i didnt post anything eventually you’d be attacking each other, this way you have a Tory punching bag to stop you from attacking LTEP and Adam for some of their views lol.
Ah BMWofVictoria hopefully that crazy post was lost, but my frustration was warranted how would you feel if you’d written a paper and then the next day someone copied 90% of it and got a higher mark than you, you’d go ballistic like Deputy Dawg and I did lol.
hey tofk, three more weeks of near continuous polling to go
The Coalition’s primary vote is steady on 42 per cent and Labor’s is steady on 45 per cent.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22702936-601,00.html
Yes Glen, you are a very entertaining sack to kick. Its like cyber psychiatry, taking out all my pent up grievances on a supporter of the great divider.
[The Coalition’s primary vote is steady on 42 per cent and Labor’s is steady on 45 per cent.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22702936-601,00.html
But what is the National Party vote!?
Blacklight. In January I was a fervent Chartist, annual elections and all that. Now I am leaning towards 4 year fixed terms. Why? We all know why!
Labor Primary: 45
Coalition Primary: 42
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22702936-11949,00.html
So tomorrow it’s gangbusters over this poll, Tuesday The Cup, Wednesday rates rise, Thursday and Friday rates fallout, and then El Rodente’s reign will enter its last two weeks.
But Guy Fawkes came early today, bearing not a Big Bang but a Galaxy.
Ole Shana’s said ALP primary was steady but it actually rose 1 point to 45. Galaxy always has the lowest ALP primary compared to ALL other polls, including it’s own marginals.
The SMH is reporting another cat out of the bag story. This time the shoe is on the other foot.
“The ABC’s Peter Cundall has revealed Mr Turnbull told him he hated the pulp mill he approved for Tasmania’s Tamar Valley.”
I wonder if this will play out in the same MSM and Liberal hyperventilation plus sky will fall in scenario as Janet’s from the GG did with her last best weapon for Libs, the G Force Gaffe.
Is Turnbull a turncoat for his love of the Kyoto protocol? Is the reality that workchoices will be ditched and Kyoto will be signed but only after an election win, in an about face breaking all Lib promises? You can’t trust those Libs. They are just pretending not to copy ALP policies. Vote Hanson to be safe!
Yeah but technically within MOE.
I think Shana has jumped ship. At the very least he is manning the lifeboats.
“But given that voters suggest they could change their mind either way, it is unlikely the Coalition can capture a majority of the undecided voters.”
Yeah but Ackerman wont be jumping off SS Howie until i do, 7:00pm 24th November 2007, if things go sour.
No, that was quintessential Shanaring by the master of denial. *APPLAUSE*, vomits.
Shanahan has an exclusive:
“Coalition’s seat-by-seat campaign
Dennis Shanahan, Political editor THE Howard”
Yes, Shanahan proposes that this election will be won or lost in “seats”.
I reckon Ackerman will inhabit the wreck for at least another year if, as is looking probable, the SS Howard is workchoiced
I doubt it. The media made a much bigger deal over Garrett’s comments than the revelation that Turnbull wanted Kyoto ratified.
Sleep easy, safe in the knowledge of another sleepless night of worry at Kirribilli.
Picture on the Front page of the GG.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/common/imagedata/0,,5734832,00.jpg
Any funny captions from Maxine ?
Shanahan calls it seat by seat strategy.
I call it corrupt and morally dishonest pork barrelling.
The whole of Australian is cheapened by Howard’s political tactics.
http://www.smh.com.au/news/National/Telstra-shares-to-build-broadband-Labor/2007/11/04/1194117868190.html
Frank, this one is more appropriate!
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/opinion/animations/0,25199,31,00.html
Frank 86
Maxine: My Goodness…No wonder Howard is hard of hearing. Have you seen the 30 year old wax in Howard’s ears?
Peter Garrett on election night.
“Compadres! It is imperative that we crush the freedom fighters before the start of the rainy season. And remember, a shiny new donkey to whoever brings me the head of Colonel Montoya!”
“Oh, I mean we’ll implement all our policies”
Move along please, the harrowing continues; get some sleep Mr. Bowe.
glen – u poor dear – that oh so nice liddle fool is gonna lose ‘cos he’s a caustic liddle a’orifice – glen – maaaaaaaaaaaaate – imbibe some compassion, think NOT just of yourself – try to feel how iraqi citizens might feel after another days (friendly) bombing – mate there’s a number of refugees on inhospitable lumps of coral outcrop you may like to negotiate wiv – but i sus you don’t acknowledge their existence. soooo sad
Frank (86) How about – “The dirty old bastard’s got his hand up my skirt”
I wonder what the mood will be like at Howard’s campaign launch next Sunday (he-he)
Howard’s concession that inflation is unavoidable is perfect evidence that he is gone. We spent the 1980s trying to break inflation, and it was achieved so our economy could grown without becoming inflationary.
The fact Howard has forgotten the last 20 years of Australian economic history suggests he knows he is gone.
how about – just because hyacinth made me live in kirribili doesn’t mean that ms goulburn is off limits ….
Frank (86) Are you going to judge all contributions and award a prize?
No, just pasted it so we have a bit of light relief
According to the poll, only 12% of respondents actually blame the Government for interest rate rises; most cited the booming economy and international factors. Therefore, a rate rise this week will play straight into the PM’s hands, because he won’t be blamed and will be able to point to the risks of electing Krudd and his motley band of cretins and thugs in these economically precarious times.
And it will work.
Another interesting finding from the poll – 38% of respondents were not locked behind either major party. Plenty of those will swing behind the Coalition on election day.
What will happen in a certain Prime Ministerial Address on the 25th of November
http://au.youtube.com/watch?v=KSXJttesBUs
ShowsOn Says @ 96
AND that gave Rudd the best wedge:
“What I’m stunned by with Mr Howard today is him hauling up the white flag in the fight against inflation by saying it’s unavoidable,” he said.
“And what I’m stunned by today is Mr Howard owning no responsibility for his Government’s policy when it comes to the five interest rate rises that we’ve seen.”
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/11/04/2081213.htm
And for some reason that is still the most popular story on the ABC site.
Did you copy and paste this from the Liberal Party website? Couldn’t you at least provide a link?
Which will be cancelled out by the same amount who swing to Labor.
Just going back to Galaxy and its trustworthiness. In both the Queensland and Victorian state elections Galaxy produced an early poll showing the parties were pretty much neck and neck. Come polling day in both cases it was a massive victory to Labor.
There was no reason to believe in either case that such a big shift in voter support towards Labor had actually occurred during the campaign. It was most likely always there and for some mysterious reason Galaxy didn’t pick it up.
Glen having to share a lifeboat with Ackerman. Glen, trust me, I wouldn’t wish that on you
It could be worse, such as an intoxicated Christopher Pearson.
ShowsOn, why bother responding to the obvious Liberal party desperado quoting numbers he doesn’t understand. Concentrate more on preparations for the upcoming party on election night. I know I am!
Glen – Even worse you might have to share a lifeboat with Steven Kaye and he’s going to be in a bad, bad mood..
I noticed the last couple of articles by Glen Milne have lost much of their venomn. Wonder if he is hoping for a job with Rudd’s team.
{A raft of Canberra-based lobbyists and ALP officials also have been sounded out for senior roles in a Rudd government. }
http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,22701753-953,00.html
And I loved this:
{JOHN Howard has refused to say whether he will spend his final years in Parliament on the backbench if his Coalition Government is not returned on November 24.}
{Mr Howard was again in Sydney yesterday campaigning in his local electorate – something party leaders rarely have to do.}
More likely, we’ll be swimming towards Janet and Andrew who have already got their lifeboat as Turnbull and Costello have already seized the other ones. Something tells me i’ve got a better chance than him.
What is it with Jurnos being so untidy i mean you have Oakes whose suit pants don’t come past his ankles when he sits down and Ackerman who has to untuck his shirt on national TV???
George, can you recommend a good brand of bubbly?
Here’s the Milne story.
{JOHN Howard is set to lose his seat at the November 24 election, having failed to make any headway in his northern Sydney seat of Bennelong against star Labor candidate Maxine McKew.}
{With his political future in doubt, Mr Howard’s Sydney suburban home in Wollstonecraft is being renovated, perhaps in preparation for his return after 11 years of living at harbourside Kirribilli House and The Lodge in Canberra.}
http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,22697888-953,00.html
So… basically… more of the same.
Glen, is this what you think Howard is working on. Good luck!
{But the shorter term strategy is that Mr Howard is laying some groundwork before an expected interest rate rise on Wednesday, creating a climate – he hopes – where people won’t sheet all the blame for a rise home to the Government, but accept that it is an inevitable result of factors largely beyond the Government’s control.
It’s a fine line – convincing people that you are the best economic manager and that the economy is strong, while putting doubt in their minds about the future and convincing them that you largely have no control over (and therefore aren’t to blame for) the factors which may lead to a rise in interest rates.
Mr Howard will know on Wednesday whether he has a safety net for his high-wire act or whether the Reserve Bank makes the walk more dangerous.}
http://blogs.abc.net.au/thepollvault/2007/11/walking-a-fine-.html#more
Glen – I’m off to bed but thanks for the laughs tonight mate. As Gary Bruce said earlier I don’t know how you do it. But it says a lot for your character that you can laugh at yourself and the situation when it must be so disappointing for you. I don’t know that I could do that.
Mad Cow – most definately. I love French champagne, but with the amount of people coming over on the night, I’d need to max out the credit card to keep everyone happy! I have discovered an absolutely killer French bubbly, Bouvet Ladubay Saphir Brut Vintage, which costs, wait for it $19.99 per bottle. Sold through Nick’s wine merchants here in Melbourne (https://www.nicks.com.au/ProductDetail.aspx?ProductId=478820). If you visit the one in Armadale (High Street) let Nick know I sent you
. Although not technically a champagne (sparkling wine from the Loire Valley) it rivals some of the best I’ve had. The wife and I live off this stuff (when I’m not enjoying a nice big Aussie red… or 10).
The last two sets of Neilsen and Newspolls (mid to the end of October) polling 6,015 person confirms Labors primary at 48 and the LNP at 41/2
I think the reality right now is 55/45
Yay! never been drunk in my life.. but if Hockey/Costello/Downer go down, who knows
I think that Glen Milne has got his life-jacket on, just in case the lifeboat has got dry-rot in it over the last 12 years and will probably sink too.
Maxine will be canonised by Labor if she slays The Rodent in Bennelong. .. Ah, yes, I can hear it now: “Saint Maxine”. Got a nice ring to it, don’t you think?
The Galaxy-bashing on this thread is tiresome.
1) They don’t do ‘push-polling’, and neither do they engage in what is actually being alleged here, which is intentionally biasing polls. Suggesting they do is just spectacular ignorance.
2) They have been quite brilliant on major party primaries at every election for 4 years.
There is a persistent 2-2.5% average difference between the Labor primary in Newspoll/ACN and the Labor primary in Galaxy since mid-year. What that means is difficult to know (truth somewhere in between would be my guess) but accusing Galaxy of having a bad past record and/or being crook is just absurd.
Milne, like a bunch of other media commentators, has blown his credibility with Labor. He has no chance of receiving any favours from them.
Rx (120) She’ll get a ministry if she wins that’s for sure.
{Maxine will be canonised by Labor if she slays The Rodent in Bennelong.}
Peter Garrett will probably write a song about her. Go the oils! Go Maxine!
I want to know why this poll doesn’t detect any gains in the Coalition Primary, along with ACNielsen and Newspoll. Doesn’t that make it an outlier?
Leopold @121, That difference between Galaxy and the others is still there though, and I’d love to see a rational explanation of it.
“Knowingly misled” = Lie.
A Pretty strong suggestion in a question.
Do you agree or disagree that John Howard knowingly
misled the Australian public when he said that he would
keep interest rates low?
Supporters
Total LNP ALP
% % %
Agree……………..42…..14…..64
Disagree …………49……77…..31
Uncommitted……..9……..9….. 5
That is a lot of people thing Howard lied to the people and 14% of Liberal voters.
Leopold (121)
“(Galaxy) have been quite brilliant on major party primaries at every election for 4 years”
Tiresome or not, in my opinion Galaxy have some explaining to do. Yes, they are very good when it really counts and they can’t afford to get it wrong, for the sake of their reputation (like the final poll before the election). But they have produced some real shockers along the way and “brilliant” is not a word I would apply to those performances.
Every time Kevin Rudd gets hit on about Garrett’s gaffe, he should just hand ot a copy of this to each journalist and say, read this the answer is here!
{HERE’S a serious question that should go to the heart of the federal election: what has happened to truth in government?
But let’s not beat around the bush: when our government does not tell us the truth, it is not some minor vice, it is a corruption of democracy and it is to be thoroughly reviled.
But what happens when the information put to voters is flawed? What happens when ballots, at least in part, are cast on the basis of untruths? In short, the elected government’s mandate is compromised. And when that happens the sovereignty of the Australian people is, in some way, usurped.
Admittedly, very few governments in Australia’s history can claim an unimpeachable record in matters of public honesty. But over the past decade what we have witnessed is a federal government so cavalier in its disregard for public honesty as to reframe the entire issue.
Perhaps most notable is the extraordinary notion of the non-core promise. To most sentient beings it’s a notion that could have been plucked straight from the pages of a Joseph Heller novel: a marriage of absurdity and moral bankruptcy that would be comic if it weren’t so abject and objectionable. Still, it’s a rather handy political device that has served the present Government to great effect. }
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22624036-5013999,00.html
My feeling is it has to do with Galaxy’s demographic/sampling assumptions.
There is but one quote that sums up this election and my feelings on the polls.
“Serenity now, insanity later” -Lloyd Braun
All elections lead to road promises
Ben Doherty and Leo Shanahan
http://www.theage.com.au/news/federal-election-2007-news/all-elections-lead-to-road-promises/2007/11/04/1194117879102.html
I wonder if Leo Shamaham is related to Dennis ??
okay – late night conspiracy theory time…
Say I’m the boss of ‘Rocket Pollsters’ it’d be smart for my company to just do an ‘inexpensive’ job with the polls, reduced sample size etc, just cruise with what the others are saying… for 155 weeks of a ‘term’. Seriously, based on what Nielson and Newspoll plus Morgan, ‘Rocket Pollsters’ could do a good enough job. In the final week before election day, ramp it up, employ a few dozen extras, real spend! Do a sample of 10,000 ppl! Really get an accurate number. But suggest publicly, and this is important, that you’ve only sampled 1200 or so… day after election, all kudos to Rocket Pollsters and. more importantly, respect, credibility and all that power for the next 155 weeks…
Afterall, there’s only one poll that counts…
Okay, probably outlandish but why the hell not?
Maybe after the election a decimated Liberal Party (let’s hope) will have to form a coalition with this mob just to survive ..
http://www.australianbusinessparty.com.au/
And the Libs blame thbe states foir Haneef.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22702747-2702,00.html
Frank @ 135, that’s amazing stuff from the Get Smart of government.
Galaxy has Labor primary votes around 45% compared to 48% from others polling agencies?!?
frank @137, keep pestering Possum for his explanation of that. Possum won’t talk to me (sob).
John Rocket Says @ 133
If what you say is true and the Galaxy sampling of the minors always seems odd – then the AC Nielsen may be the most accurate reflection of reality during the year.
Their October polling of 4,000 people – ALP 56/54/55 with primary 47/48/48 means not much has changed; a 1% reduction to 55/45 from September.
We are still looking at a 55-54 on polling day unless Howard can gets someone to listen to him and, believe him.
I will not blame Howard for the 6th interest rate rise since 2004, on Nov.07.
But I also don’t give him any credit that he has boasted in the last 11 years on “economic management”
Andrews is mad if he thinks people are not going to connect the Haneef case with this foreign doctor fear of coming to Australia. I guess Andrews will say next that all the doctors not coming are te.rro…ist.s so didn’t want to get caught.
Frank – this is the real big issue now – what Howard claims, what he has done, what real control he has and, if he had a right to make his claims.
Rudd can make a case that Howard has not been in control of the economy but the economy controlling him and, his claims misleading.
frank. I think (and here is where media bias has more to do with things than any other issue) the majority of people still believe that the Liberal party are better economic managers. I also think its quite likely that a majority of people believe that interest rates aren’t controlled by the government.
But, none of that matter. A majority of people believe John Howard is an unmitigated liar. And when their own people complain “but the people aren’t listening to us” what they can’t bring themselves to admit is.
“In the interests of keeping power at any cost, our leader has lied, lied and lied, and his clever lawyer-like ways of avoiding responsibility for those lies has finally become mainstream”.
If someone repeatedly lies, people stop listening. And that’s the whole basis behind the polls. As Howard said, “its about trust.” Now people just want to see the end of him.
mad cow @ 138
According to Galaxy, Labor and Coalition primary votes are pretty much close, 45-42 , and Labor has to rely on preference votes to extend its lead
I feel a bit down / nervous on this.
^when the Liberal Party’s own people..
But Mad Cow one would be wise not to forget Rudd lying to Rosana Harris.
They are politicians and they all do it, including Mr Rudd. So why focus on Howie all the time if you aren’t prepared to mention Rudd’s failings too.
All that needs to be said about this election is…
“Serenity Now, Insanity Later” – Lloyd Braun
Sleep well ya’ll
frank @144, the major 3rd party is the greens and their preferences are probably going to go 80%+ to labor. Have a look at the polls and the differences between the primary and 2PP. That should explain it.
Glen, I’m not going to bother with that because you’ve had that out with the other parties here and they’ve dealt with it thoroughly.
I have no idea of what Drewsey has been up to, again.
I am certain, whatever, it is would be near fatal, for him, if not the bystanders.
Reading on.
The primary vote certainly looks more realistic for both sides.
looks like the Coalition are going to win after all!
I thinks its going to get worse for the Libs from here. They will implode. Just keep saying “Who do you trust” John. The electorate will answer. 100+ is looking good.
A good result on the whole for Labor, and on the mark for my prediction of 54-46 to Labor in Galaxy. Newspoll will be 56-44 Labor IMO. Last 3 polls, ACN, Morgan f2f and Galaxy, have all had Labor’s 2PP up 1%, so hopefully we get a 4th good poll.
No, I grew up there. I can assure you that he would fit in just fine. Send him to Grand Rapids, Michigan. That is just about the most Republican area in the state [my home state] if not the country. It is Gerald Ford’s birth place.
Have you noticed the News Ltd papers have stopped noting 2PP figures and seem to be featuring primary percentages – presumably because the ALP’s figures are below the psychological 50 figure when counted that way?
Howards screwed – the media aren’t covering the scary economy at the moment, they are covering Howard SAYING its a scary economy and that this is his tactic for the election.
It’s like the Wizard of Oz, with a pack of reporters pointing to the guy behind the curtain.
PS, pass it on:
http://www.getup.org.au/campaign/KnowWhereIStand&id=198
Got up to do some work, and lo! A Galaxy to brighten the day!
And even a number of Glenisms to divert and amuse.
Looks like more of the same with the added advantage of less and les time for the rat to claw anything back.
“Leader fears he will lose power – declares martial law”
Thought the rodent was playing his final card then realised the headline referred to Pakistan.
Mind you, desperate times do call for desperate actions
In 2004 had Howard “knowingly misled the public” on interest rates?
What sort of question is this? “Knowingly”?
I could have truthfully answered “No” myself!
Howard certainly didn’t “Know” interest rates would rise.
Again, it looks like the phrasing of the questions delivers the outcome desired.
Well who said a week is a long time in politics. One of the team rodent spokesman was singing from a different songbook to Howard not that long ago.
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/news/national/costello-no-case-for-rate-rise/2007/10/24/1192941125936.html
But by yesterday everything had changed and the rodent tried a different tack.
http://www.smh.com.au/news/economy/pm-hauls-up-white-flag/2007/11/04/1194117858698.html
So people are getting a bit nervous about Labor’s primary vote?
Don’t worry, there’s always 2010!
So Steve Price’s missus works for Joe Hockey. Seems ‘rope a dope’ Garret was a set up and he fell for it.
162 LOL
View from england – we think the Coalition will hold on!
Could be as big as 10 maj for Coalition….. a long night of disappointment for Labor….
Where the media cheersquad will go after the election.
http://www.apo.org.au/webboard/comment_results.chtml?filename_num=178505
164
ave it 07…sounds interesting…so you think a repeat of 1969 or perhaps 1980?
BrissyRod – the labor primary has been solid all year, and even in Galaxy has increased sine July. If the newspoll state by state data are to be believed, the likelhood is that the national average is depressed, if anything. Which matters not a jot, since the ALP would win in NSW and Qld alone, with Vic and Tas the icing and SA the bunch of cherries on top.
ave it 07 – you must have been reading the Torygraph.
Completely off topic, but you guys over there deserve to be amused…
I’ve got a number of news clipping binders from previous Federal Elections. I read them when I’m homesick (pity me). If you’ll indulge me, I’ll share with you some snippets from 1972.
Herald, 7 September: “The federal elections will be held as late as the Prime Minister, Mr McMahon, can possible hold it(sic), the Leader of the Federal Opposition, Mr Whitlam, said today.”
Australian, 9 Sep; Front page lead headline – “PM gains support” – and in smaller sub-heading “But his national rating is still lagging well behind Whitlam’s”. Author – Alan Ramsay.
Age 14 Sep: “McMahon may lose seat: poll.”
Sun 16 Sep: “The Queensland branch of the Liberal Party is having trouble raising funds for the Federal Eloection.”
Age 26 Sep: “Election odds against Liberals, says Santamaria” (”He did think the Australian political system would work better with only two major parties – one conservative, one middle-of-the road Labor, including the DLP. An amalgam of the DLP and the Country Party seemed less desirable…”
The Age, 9 Oct. “Lose and it will be long time out, Libs told.”
(And for Glen … “CP will gain 5 seats: Anthony” – Age, 7 Oct, and “Polls may be wrong, says expert” – Age, 30 Oct)
More to come, perhaps…
VoterBoy – I don’t know whether to laugh or cry. I can only hope Rudd is a student of history. Which he seems, so far, to be.
Hope the poms are treating you well!
164 For your edification – week three in review from Mark Banisch
http://www.newmatilda.com/election07/index.php/2007/11/05/week-three-in-review/
167
CL d F – no complaint from me. I stand by my prediction of 79 to ALP.
Just interested as to the reason why ave it 07 is so sure.
CL de F @ #170.
I won’t be laughing until the night, but the parallels are slightly eerie. AND by reviewing 72. I get an early glimpse of the last minute desperate dirty tricks that the Libs pull. Mind you, in this election (07), they started much, much earlier.
Methinks a new slogan for Maxine and the ALP:
“John Howard: Even More Desperate Than Billy McMahon”
(And yes, the poms are treating me very well. So long as they pay me in sterling, I’m happy.)
166/172 – we English always call it right!
More pertinently it is clear that ALP is doing better in seats where it has a remote chance of winning and less in the marginals. As we also know Coalition can win on 48/52.
And of course the polls in Australia understate coalition just as polls in England underestimate Con and in US underestimate Rep!
The final words of remorse.
http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/meganomics/index.php/theaustralian/comments/rocky_road_to_higher_interest
Let’s put to bed any notion that any of the four major polling organisations are deliberately biasing their results, as some people seem to be saying. They have too much at stake to want to do that.
@41 Labor Voter
BINGO!
Ave it 07 @ 174 has some interesting points. But I think the polling has been too consistent for too long for any of these things to matter.
I also doubt that the Libs can win with anything below 48 TPP, as some people seem to reckon. Even if some of the “marginals” hold on, there’ll be other seats that do what Lindsay did in ‘96 and jump across the pendulum.
Oh no Joe
Please don’t go
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/11/05/2081330.htm?section=justin
I’m warming to the term Krudd.
Hockey and Gillard were going at it on Channel 7 this morning ahead of their debate at the NPC on Wednesday. Hockey lists circumstances under which he will quit Parliament too
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/11/05/2081330.htm
Well with interest rates about to go up things are only going to get worse for the Liberals. Howard really needs to put distance between himself and his interest rate lie from the last election. So far his attempts have been poor:
I didn’t actually make that promise myself (another lie)
It is due to drought and high growth (these were present in 2004)
Lets see if we can help:
The dog ate my low interest rates
Its due to the debt we inherited from Labor (oops, we paid it off already)
Its due to world forces beyond our control (like the low rates were…)
Who cares, I live in Kiribilli rent free! (hsi favourite; not ours)
I agree the pol is accurate; there is no reason for any professional pollster to be biased, it is jsut that some use methodologies that favour certain groups. I have more concern about the reporting of results as far as bias goes.
Trust Anna to see through the crap
….
“Queensland Premier Anna Bligh says the Federal Government’s $10 billion roads funding promise is a rehash of old policies that have not been delivered.”
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/11/05/2081315.htm
Ave it 07 – as they say in family planning circles, hope isn’t a method.
VoterBoy – I suspect this is more an inverted 1996 than 1972, but then I distantly remember 1972 was quite a hoot. 1974 less so, 1975 complete disaster. Can’t quite see Ruddie as Gough, though. Or Swan as Jim Cairns. Keep that sterling rolling in, heaven knows we need it for the BoP.
“There is but one quote that sums up this election and my feelings on the polls.
“Serenity now, insanity later” -Lloyd Braun”
Keep this up, Glen, and Tabitha’s likely to bung on an ugly little demarcation dispute.
Julie
There will be more libs like Hockey in the last days who suddenly discover integrity and independence and free thought in a desperate bid to save their seat.
Arbie Jay – Hockey’s just in the Howard mould – promise anything and worry about it later. Integrity? What’s that?
Preliminary look at Queensland senate seats here.
http://www.upperhouse.info/ArchiveView.aspx?EntryHeadId=158
178 Why would Hockey be threatening to resign if there were no changes to IR laws planned?
What Hockey’s doing is fairly normal politics I would have thought. Whether or not people believe him, that’s a different matter.
Steve at 186 – a very intersting question.
And which way ’round does he mean?
He’ll resign if they make Workchoices more employer-friendly or if they make Workchoices more employee-friendly?
Why hasn’t he resigned already – I mean they already introduced the fairness test?
CL
Agree, Hockey has displayed a total lack of integrity so far, especially in the pursuit of Rudd’s wife for political purposes, and more so with his refusal to release the analysis of Work Choices and AWA’s conducted by his own department.
This plea by Hockey is more like a cry to North Sydney voters, but too little too late and very much like Howards similar plea to voters earlier this year of if you reelect me I promise to be good and behave with integrity this time.
RA @ 188 – with any luck, Hockey won’t have to resign. You co-electors will do it for him.
Arbie Jay – maybe Hockey will also echo Howard’s other promise – re-elect me and I’ll promise to quit …
Steven, nice try but I don’t think it will work. The Australian newspaper and polls are rabidly pro government and only trying to neutralise the effect that yet another interest rate rise will have on Howard’s faltering (destroyed?) credibility.
Using spin to deal with this will be seen for the desperate tactic it it. Successive rises have occurred on Howard’s watch, and has revealed him to be untrustworthy on interest rate matters. Now he is just proving how sneaky he can be too.
It won’t work.
Yes,CL I think it is best to avoid resignations if at all possible. After all, that was the message from Santo Santoro wasn’t it?
BTW, does anyone know what’s happening over at LP?
Ave O7 – Polls in England and US can underestimate the conservative vote, because of one simple thing: Non-compulsory voting.
Strong campaigns by non-Labor parties, such as the Republicans in 2004 to “get out the vote” can influence an outcome and not show up in the preceding polls. Unfortunately, or fortunately, Australians have to vote so you take that possible corruption of the poll system out.
The Sham at the GG is again trying to polish the turd. He mentions the 45 – 42 primary vote but ignores the 2PP of a huge 54 – 46. He then goes on to repeat the same blatherings about the newspoll in the marginals. Tool!
Adrian, working fine from ozpolitics blog feeds.
This is one of the greatest lies in recent history. The drought IS not increasing food prices. Its Woolies and Coles taking advantage of the drought and the government doesn’t care.
The fact is farmers are having to wear increased costs because the supermarkets lock in prices a long time ahead.
Just 2 examples; 1) milk has gone up a lot but the farm gate price hasn’t moved, wheat accounts for about 5% of a loaf of bread. Even if wheat prices doubled the loaf price should only go up 3 or 4 cents. I bake my own bread buying baker’s flour in 20KG bags direct fom the mill. The price a month ago was $0.20/bag higher than what I was paying in early 2006!
The information put forward on interest rates and accompanying responsibility in the Galaxy poll is hardly groundbreaking. Of course people don’t think Howard is solely responsible for the rate rises. However, this hasn’t stopped him from claiming he is the man for the job when interest rates are concerned. Then he claims it is impossible to control inflation. The inability to stay on message is astounding. Just because voters don’t see Howard as responsible for the rate rises, doesn’t mean they will flock to him if the rates increase on Tuesday. The same applies for Rudd. Howard has handled this so poorly that he has almost painted the picture for voters that the economy is something that cannot be managed by any party.
adrian, they’ve been down since Saturday evening.
EC
http://larvatusprodeo.net/2007/11/05/5305/
The interest rate finding in Galaxy is – interesting! The inevitable rate rise tomorrow may not give Labor the boost they were hoping for. Howard’s new fear campaign that Labor won’t be able to manage the coming economic turbulence won’t get traction either. If there is a big international downturn, we cop it no matter who is in power here.
‘The national Party vote is too Low. ” The national party is as low as you can get. They stand for nothing now, are a blister on the ar*e of Australia and a growth that has attached itself to the Liberals.
They have less ticker then Tip and stand for nothing. The sooner they are gone from the Australian political scene the better Australia will be.
CL
Hockey would not have made such a silly promise if he didn’t realise he was a big risk to lose his seat.
I would say he is gone and knows it, that is why the desperate last minute plea.
Sorry Mayoferal but food prices HAVE gone up because of the drought, quite substantially in the case of grains, fruit and vegetables. The other factor is that world grain prices have risen because of world food shortages caused by increasing demand from China and India, and the diversion of grain crops into biofuels. And it’s going to get worse. At the moment, meat prices are lower than they could be, because farmers are selling off stock they can’t afford to feed.
On another matter – it’s a clever stunt for Hockey to threaten to resign as minister if workChoices is changed. The simple way around that would be for Howard (if he wins) to give Hockey a different portfolio, and let another minister do the dirty work.
And on the Galaxy poll – pretty consistent with all the others. I’m with Possum – another interest rate rise will send more votes Labor’s way.
I think Hockey knows that Getup are now targetting him personally as the second “birthday” of worckchoices approaches…
Getup are promising to park an anti-workchoices billboard in front of Hockey’s office in (very prominent) Pacific Highway if enough people sign the Sticky-Note petitiion….
http://www.getup.org.au/campaign/KnowWhereIStand&id=198
Steve, thanks for the link, but still can’t connect with LP. Maybe it’s my SE Qld ISP.
Rates
Done
also sent to about 50 contacts
Suggest everyone else does same
Could get to 500000 by days end
hehehe
ps it was 12000 at 8.48
now is over 13000 at 8.53
wo people power at work
cynic, thanks very much..
Get those rates up!
Its good for savers, old people etc!
its a real shame for this board that there cannot be decent, intelligent debate. Why is every conservative supporter hear incapable of anything but rash statements without substance?
For example, Steven Kaye, the undecided voters youre now using as straw to clutch on, are split 50/50 in terms of the way they’re leaning. There is no way Howard would be able to swing enough of them, and he may actually lose some leaning his way.
Instead of fantasy, how about some thoughts about what Howard could do to turn it around because it AINT going to magically change no matter how hard you dream
209 Howards been doing that for twelve years. He calls increasing rates good economic management.
Howard’s attempt to turn the interest rate rise in his favour will fail. It would only have a sniff of a chance if the voters didn’t trust Rudd with the economy. But if that were true, he wouldn’t be so far in front in the shadows of the election.
A more likely outcome of the interest rate rise is the voters will say to Howard, “you promised us low interest rates, and all we’ve had since the last election is interest rates going up. And we’re going to punish you for it.”
What about when banks raise mortgage rates 35bp in response to the 25bp RBA hike?
Given the much higher cost of funding globally this is a very realy possibility.
This is what Costello was worried about a couple of weeks ago. I don’t know whether it will happen or not, but it’s a very very real chance.
I don’t think that the actual 35 instead of 25 will actually help either party, but if it happens then everyone will reply the dopey things Costello said about it. And it will make Costello look impotent.
I think the rate raise will help the ALP, but only for these secondary reasons.
sorry, REPLAY the dopey things…
Interest rate rise will help Howard, not Krudd. Because people will realise that even with six interest rate rises this term they remain at historical lows and if Labor were in charge they would rise much more.
This poll allocated 70% of minor party preferences to Labor, so the true 2pp from this figure is more likely to be 53/47 than 54/46. And remember Howard will probably win with 47.5% of the two-party preferred vote due to electoral mechanics.
A very good and encouraging poll result that does nothing to change my prediction of a Howard win.
215 – you call the future!
Remember Ave it says Howard win!
“Forget the polls. Look at the betting markets. They get it right every single time.”
Nostradamus, 12.12.06
Snakeboy @ 217
Touche.
Nostradamus, there is a rather uncanny correlation between rising interest rates and the rising ALP primary & 2PP. This rubbish about interest rates not helping Labor is just that.
It has been an hour or two since I read the poll but I think 22% of people said they were still completely undecided. In most polling I have seen a 3% swing to the Coalition about a week before elections I would suggest that 3% is in the undecided. If so it will be a close race.
This is because the past few miniscule interest rises happened at the same time as the “Oh No!” initial knee-jerk reaction to WorkChoices. If you take that away, it would not have helped Labor at all, but much the reverse.
Nostradamus @ 215 : “Howard will probably win with 47.5% of the two-party preferred vote due to electoral mechanics”
You’re either joking or dreaming …
217 – I love your work Snakeboy.
As a matter of fact, Australian interest rates are the highest in more than a decade, and the second highest in the industrialised world.
Funny isn’t it. Labor left downward-trending rates to the incoming Liberal government. Now the Liberals will leave rising rates to (what hopefully will be) the incoming Labor government.
14000 as at 9.35
Re Joe Hokey-Pokey’s latest gambit to keep his snout in the troff, is his promise in the same league as Abbott’s prior to the 2004 election on the Medicare Safetynet rates???
http://www.abc.net.au/7.30/content/2005/s1345647.htm
The problem with running a coutnry like a CEO runs a company is that the CEO runs down the investment then leaves while things still look good. Everyone loves him at his new company…
The problem with Government is that you have to stay – until you can’t anymore….
The Howard Holden is bogged in the soggy spot where the septic tank overflows. The family has been pushing as best they could but have sprayed with fetid mud from John maddly spinning the wheels. The old station waggon is down to the axles now and not moving anywhere.
Oh look! its uncle Graeme Morris.He’ll know what to do!
“John its easy . what we will do we’ll pretend its a ship and sail her to victory”
I find it interesting that Howard has now changed tack on interest rates, Galaxy pumps out a poll showing the government is not being blamed, Lebovic is on air telling anyone who will listen that this could favour the government and the media is more interested in the poll that talks about who people blame than who they are going to vote for. There is a message in there somewhere.
Possum overlays Opposition primary votes on Interest Payments to Disposable Income
http://possumcomitatus.wordpress.com/2007/05/24/why-howard-is-rooted-in-one-simple-graph/
A couple of points worth noting:
Whether or not the galaxy polling is biased or not is beside the point. All it means is that you cannot compare Galaxy to the other polls. Instead compare it to previous Galaxy polls. Do this and you will see that the ALP primary is steady and the coalition primary fell since the last one. On 2pp ALP increased it’s lead slighlty. Bad sign for the government with less than 3 weeks to go.
The interest rate question in the Galaxy poll stands for nothing. It is absurd to think that Howard knew that interest rates would go up, so of course he didn’t Deliberately mislead the electorate on this matter. However he did mislead the electorate by convincing them that he had some control over the movement of interest rates in that time. Had Galaxy structured the question differently it would have produced a very different and more meaningful outcome.
Most likely you will only a 1 or 2 % rise in ALP primary as a result of another dreaded interest rate rise on Wednesday, but that’s not because people don’t hold Howard responsible for making a completely dishonest promise last election. It is because of the <20% of swinging voters out there, most have already decided to vote ALP as result prior to the announcement. If you need proof, just look at the polls.
Same thing goes for a lot of the other issues throughout the year that are expected to give one party a boost over the other. These issues predominately draw reactions out of voters who are already opposed to the offending party. They can’t lose their vote because they never had it in the first place!
Getting back to this poll, it is interesting to note the difference in the spin between the Courier Mail and the Daily Telegraph. The Courier Mail reckons the poll shows that Howards campaign has stalled whilst the Tele emphasises the: People don’t Blame Howard for rising rates thing. Even if people don’t blame Howard for rising rates, it certainly takes the sheen away from his economic credentials – which were/are his big vote winner.
On interest rates: The Galaxy poll seems to show us that a lot of people realise that interest rates are not something the government controls much. Howard, of course, claims credit when rates go south, but defers responsibility when they go north. The Galaxy data support this – not that many people think Howard is to blame (only 12%), but 42% think he lied. Thus, when rates go up, not many will think Howard is to blame, but a lot will believe he has no say in it, no say in it at all. Which means they won’t believe he can do any better than Rudd.
And Nostradamus, if you actually believe that tripe you spout, that’s your business. You’ve only got a little while now before the misery is over.
Snakeboy at 217. That’s a very specific quatrain from Nostro you’ve quoted there. He seems to have forgotten writing it. Must be all that nutmeg he’s smoking.
# 233 – Dead right, CL. The Rodent’s big problem with interest rates is about perception, not reality.
The reality is that the government doesn’t control interest rates.
The perception is that Howard promised he’d stop them going up.
Lead story from Skynews this morning – Voters wont blame Howard for an increase in a rate rise and ends with a by line latest Galaxy poll shows Coalition has not improved their position and are still on 46% on 2PP.
Oh the face of politics – it was Keating’s policies which caused interest rate rises in 90-92 but the drought, oil prices and (dont mention the war!) which caused the rises in 04-07- dont blame me!
First up can somebody tell me how the TPP vote is arrived at in polls. I ask this because Labors primary vote is much higher than last election which suggests they will get a smaller % of the preference vote this time.
Second, I think a major error most polls have is that they do not take into account the sitting member. I remember seeing a TT or ACA story about Mal Brough where a street poll was done asking voting intentions. Most people according to the show believed it was time for a change yet were still going to vote for Mal.
Socrates and Alex, the interest rate questions in Galaxy is:
“Do you agree or disagree that John Howard knowingly
misled the Australian public when he said that he would
keep interest rates low? ”
If you asked the first question without the “knowingly”, the answer, according to other research and anecdotally, would be overwhelmingly, yes.
Why include “knowingly”, when just the question ‘…did Howard mislead…’ would address the issue precisely?
In a word – to mislead.
The question now becomes two questions in one, with one being ‘did he mislead’ and the other – was it ‘knowingly’.
But the response option was polar!
For respondents it was all or nothing. Both elements had to be ‘yes’ or both ‘no’.
A logical dilemma for the respondent.
Not a good look if you want a genuine answer. But this was known by the designer of this carefully crafted question.
If you think ‘knowingly’ is more important, you’ll answer ‘no’. If you think ‘mislead’ is more important, you’ll answer yes.
The result – a dilution of the ‘yes’ option.
The question has done its job!
This is a known (and pretty obvious) deception in qualitative polling but it worked beautifully this morning when the opening line from Tony Eastly on AM quoted that “49% say Howard did not mislead”. He DIDN”T report the question as it was stated. He was sucked in well and good. You’d think someone like him would be more politically savvy. But there you go. (Or was it Coalition bias at the ABC, ha)
Galaxy have done it again.
Oh Steven, if youre relying on the science of TT or ACA, youre stuffed. But i guess that’s what it’s like to clutch at straws
No I am not relying on the science of TT/ACA I was just using it as an example. There are going to be a number of people who vote for the member rather than the party. These people may not be many but would be enough in marginal seats to determine who wins government.
Re the Nationals, I wonder if the shift in non-metropolitan votes might be the sleeper in this campaign. Have a look at Possum’s tables on http://possumcomitatus.wordpress.com/2007/11/01/bring-out-your-dead/
These have the combined Newspolls showing an average swing of 6.8% against the coalition in non-metropolitan areas and 15.0% towards Labor. Obviously a lot of that shift will be wasted because the Nationals hold several of their rural seats by big margins, but it looks like the beginning of the end for the Nats as they are now. My impression is that country people have been onto global warming for a long time and are getting increasingly anxious and impatient with pollies who are still in denial.
Incumbents generally get a personal vote.
This favours the Coalition.
Most people will probably think Howard can’t do much about rates either way. Some will think it’s all his fault. The ones who realise he isn’t responsible may also put two and two together and work out he’s not responsible for the good times, either. The ones who think he is responsible will dislike him for it. Either way, most of these two groups will have another reason to ditch the libs. Which is worth another point or two in the polls for labor. If Sky and the News papers want to believe their own propaganda, so be it. The galaxy poll provides some evidence that the punters are more sophisticated on these matters than we often give them credit for!
GetUp-15,000 votes
I hope this table shows ok. To aid understanding of statements of the relative accuracy of the various pollsters, here is a table showing the actual pre-election final polls of each of the big four, compared to the 2004 election. (from Bryan at Oz Politics)
ACNielsen Galaxy Newspoll Morgan 2004 Election
Poll date 5-7 Oct 5-6 Oct 6-7 Oct 7-8 Oct 9 Oct 2004
% Prim Coalition vote 49 46 45 45.5 46.7
% Primary Labor vote 37 39 39 38.5 37.6
% Total maj party prim 86 85 84 84 84.3
% Residual primary 14 15 16 16 15.7
% TPP Coalition vote 54 52 50 49 52.7
% TPP Labor vote 46 48 50 51 47.3
% residl to Coalition 36 40 31 22 38.6
% residual to Labor 64 60 69 78 61.4
Sample size 2029 1200 2500 1311 Very Large
As can be seen the Morgan and Newspoll primaries were just as close a Galaxy, within rounding, but they both got the minor parties preference split wrong, in Morgan’s case, spectacularly so. AC Nielsen got the coalition primary wrong. Saying that Galaxy have a better handle on primaries in their recent polls than the others is not supportable. The noticeable difference lately is that Galaxy have a 2% lower primary for Labor than ACN and Newspoll, and about a 1% higher Coalition Primary vote, and that Galaxy consistently record a much higher vote for the Greens than the others (8% + for Galaxy, about 6% for NewsP and Morgan, and 4% for ACN). All of them are now being very careful with allocation of minor party prefs, but their differing proportions of these can still produce significant differences in TPP estimates.
cheers,
Alan H
15k at 10.20
Cool
http://www.getup.org.au/campaign/KnowWhereIStand&id=198
50k by 12 (heres hoping)
Stephen – “There are going to be a number of people who vote for the member rather than the party.”
Fair enough I can agree with this statement.
“These people may not be many but would be enough in marginal seats to determine who wins government.”
I can also agree with “These people may not be many..” But I cannot see how you can conclude from this that “..but would be enough in marginal seats to determine who wins government.” That is a big leap into the unknown, No evidence there.
If I remember what I read at Ozpolitics a considerable time back, the last two elections the galaxy poll got the 2PP spot on or close as possible to the eventual end result three weeks out from the election. We’re approximately three weeks out so if the trend continues its looking good for the ALP.
I have to agree the Nationals are a do nothing group of individuals as a whole and are only attached to the Liberals for political survival but in some cases that’s been good for those in Nationals electorates. If you really wish to dislodge them, you need to run high-profile independents in their seats which presents 3 problems – 1. where do you get them from? 2. Its going to cost $50 000 minimum each and 3. They will be up against a party machine with megabucks behind them.
For those that like to display data in blog comments, I believe its possible to use simple HTML to display tables
Did anyone see the story on this “Coffee Bean Poll” in Perth?
http://abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/11/04/2081133.htm?site=elections/federal/2007
At first I thought it was silly but with a sample of 30,000+ customer visits, and coffee being one of those universal goods consumed by people who vote for any party, I am not surpised by the claimed accuracy. To me the only risk this time is that the WA trend is different to the rest of the nation.
Ave it 07 says: “Incumbents generally get a personal vote.
This favours the Coalition.”
They also get tarred with the brush, which is why we see just about every sitting Coalition MHR trying to put as much light between themselves and the Government as possible, to the point of even leaving Liberal Party logos and photos of the PM off their campaign literature.
It’s also why Hockey is feverishly attempting to distance himself from whatever Minchin has planned as Workchoices Mark 2.
Once it gets to the “don’t-blame-me-I’m-nothing-to-do-with-the-Government” stage, the goose is pretty-well cooked, wouldn’t you say?
At least its stopped everyone talking about Peter Garrett. If I was the professional punter (moron) who put $100 000 on the Rodent at $2.20 just before APEC saying “With APEC, everyone will realise how well respected Howard is by the leaders of the world and his odds will shorten to be favourite. Then I’ll put $100 000 on Rudd at $2.20. I cant lose!”. Well mate, good luck.
Gary,
I have been involved in a few polls in the past and this is what I have found. When asked which party people would vote for on average 1/3 go for each major party leaving 1/3 for minors and undecided. However when asked which candidate they would vote for the sitting member usually gets another 3-4% of the vote which comes out of the undecided. 3-4% may not seem like much but is enough to keep Howard in government.
All – Coalition rules ok
Off to bed in England! See you later
Why doesn’t the GUTLESS Joe Hockey promise to quit parliment and the Liberal Party if Workchoices is made tougher???
This sounds very much like the “Brian Burke” stunt, where one of their front benchers was caught out as having dinner with Brian Burke, so they sent him to the backbench as punishment. WHAT A JOKE.
The coalition advantage in incumbency is somewhat reduced as there are a sginficant number of government MPs retiring at this election. Open seats (those without an incumbent include: Page, Lindsay, Leichardt, Forde, Makin, Cook, Grey, Mitchell. Flynn as a new seat has no incumbent.
A couple of those are ultra safe Coalition seats.
There may be others that don’t come immediately to mind where there is a retiring Government member.
Fadden is another with a retiring MP.
ALP @ $1.31 on Centrebet. Coalition @ $3.50
This is the point in proceedings where the big, smart money starts coming in. If there’s no significant movement in these odds in the next seven days, it’s goodnight nurse.
Rudd unveils $150m plan for homeless
http://news.ninemsn.com.au/article.aspx?id=312807
Watch as Rudd makes Howard look like the selfish sod that he is. This plays right to the core of the issues that many people have with this government: that it’s all about the economy, and if you get screwed over too bad.
The other issue (probably more powerful) is Labor’s pledge to lift foreign aid to 0.5% of GDP. This is a significant issue amongst committed Christians (who might otherwise vote for the Coalition). I suspect Rudd is pulling a large Christian vote on the basis of his better social policies.
Stand-by for a me-too by Howard on the foreign aid thing. Hillsong is now pushing Labor’s line to try and force the government the match it. The Make Poverty History group is actively targeting marginal seats as well. It won’t surprise me if Howard rolls over after 11 years… he will do anything to try and win.
Damn it is going to be satisfying when he loses.
An Australian election first! Dolly is going to debate Pat Conlon, the SA Minister for Transport. The first time a Federal Minister has debated a State Minister in election history. Clutch at those straws!!
http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,22702345-5006301,00.html
There will be a move in the odds, but it will be towards Labor. Nobody backing the Coalition at this stage could seriously be called “smart money” IMO. More like “idiot-tax” money.
The homeless announcement is brilliant.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22704036-12377,00.html
If Rudd becomes PM at the end of this month, then it has been a long, long time to hear something like this from a national leader:
On Labor’s new homelessness initiative:
“This is all part of reaching out with a helping hand to Australians in need. It is part and parcel of our Australian set of values, having a bit of heart and soul and doing the right thing for all those Australians out there who have run into one of life’s walls.”
After nearly 12 years of Howard, you’d almost be forgiven for no longer knowing what compassion is.
http://www.theage.com.au/news/federal-election-2007-news/rudd-helping-hand-for-homeless/2007/11/05/1194117920644.html
“Why doesn’t the GUTLESS Joe Hockey promise to quit parliment and the Liberal Party if Workchoices is made tougher???”
Because it is another Howard-style trick. The most likely case is that if the government is returned, ministerial portfolios will be re-shuffelled and Hockey won’t be Workplace Relations minister. Therefore, if WorkChoices is made tougher, Hockey will simply say, “Well, I’m not the minister anymore. Take it up with the new minister.”
250 Stephen – I have closely followed elections for many years and what I have noticed is when the swing is and it is large even long standing sitting members can be swept away. There is no certainty incumbancy will save them.
The local candidate factor only comes into play if they are high profile and active and make themselves well known and ‘liked’ in the community which, is not many.
Many people don’t even know who their local MP is.
Interest rate question is interesting because suggest that half the population don’t believe Howard has control of interest rates [and that he knew he didn't when making promises].
*Howard still has responsibility to the public – for making the promise which was the core of his 2004 election campaign. Rudd will run this.
*Rudd’s assertion that Howard has run up the white flag on rates will now resonate as Howard washes his hands of having control of rates [now that they are going up].
*Rudd runs the good message of investing in education etc keeps inflation down.
* Howard thus losing bite on his main and only platform on economics and rates.
I wonder which way undecideds broke in 1996 and 1998 – the last unadulterated elections where change was on the way.
Socrates @ 248 -Miss Maud’s Coffee Bean Poll is well-established in WA and from memory its results have been pretty accurate -for the last three federal elections. For those who don’t know, Miss Maud’s has very good coffee -but more expensive than most cafes. The cakes are splendid, and I believe it is these that attract large numbers of cake-eating tories, hence the poll has a strong Tory bias. Yer average Aussie blue collar bloke wouldn’t be seen dead at Miss Maud’s.
This is exactly the kind of policy Rudd needs to release.
The pollies seem to have become obsessed with releasing money, not policies. So it’s always the X Billion Dollar Whatever Policy. People get bored with the amount money being thrown around.
Far better to release some policies that really get people talking and steal the agenda. Good policy isn’t purely about money, obviously, but the way election campaigns are run you’d think it was.
I hope Rudd has a few more of this type of policy up his sleeve. Not only is it good policy, but it makes Howard look bad, and Howard can’t even attack it. Furthermore, it demonstrates new and strong leadership from Rudd.
Genius.
This policy looks very good, I know many people who work closely with the homeless and the frustration they feel towards the Howard Govt has been growing most of these people live in nice safe Liberal seats (ouch)
While no Govt can eliminate poverty you do need to ask the question as Rudd does, how can we have such a booming economy yet so many miss out.
I’m sorry but this Govt has lived off the Economy and a slack lazy ALP for a 11 years and it has now been forced to give a justification on why it should be returned and all it can come up with is
“UNION”
While strictly speaking Howard can’t be blaimed for the rise in Interest rates, anymore than he can claim credit that Mr Business has hired someone.
Lets go one step further when the Govt says so many jobs have been created how many of those jobs are actually new or simplly a person going from one job to another.
Costello is right Howard isn’t that good at Economy management.
I think Howard might be a victim of his own rhetoric in thinking he would be better able to handle the economy in a rising interest rate and high inflation environment. While he has shown genius in getting both to rise, he has no track record in making either fall. His pork barreling tax cuts are a major reason for the inflation.
The minority of voters who know who their local member is
are also usually able to say which party they belong to.
Thus if a survey asks them “which party are you going to vote for”
then they will take account of their knowledge before answering the
question, and their answer will match their actual vote for
a candidate on election day.
The majority of people don’t know who their local member is and
will also answer the voting question correctly, because they
will end up looking at party affiliation on the ballot paper.
Rudd is making Howard look silly in regard to inflation and interest rates. Howard changes with the wind. Not a good look.
The local member factor is important more in te country seats then city, but in Landslide Elections this becomes less of a factor lets take the 2002 Victorian State Election several high profile good local Liberals in safe seats were beaten
I think its easier to know how your area votes than who the local MP is, this is partly because there are so many members of Parliament and with such regular changes to the seat boundaries.
forget the polls, ask the punters:
SportingBet: 1.32 / 3.3
CentreBet: 1.31 / 3.3
BetFair: 1.37 / 3.6
LasseterSport: 1.28 / 3.7
PortlandBet: 1.3 / 3.5
SportsBet: 1.28 / 3.7
Iasbet: 1.37 / 3.25
SportsAcumen: 1.28 / 3.7
And for RBA interest rate decision on Wed.,
BetFair offers: NoChange: $1.14 / Raise.25: $7.6
I’m still waiting for Howard’s king hit knock ‘em down and drag ‘em out housing affordability package. I have no doubt that it will also be a triumph for rising inflation and interest rates just like his first day of the election tax cut genius.
Two quick points.
1. While the punters might not blame Howard for inflation, and hence interest rates, this is not the point of objection.
The point is that Howard said he could keep them down. He shouldn’t have said it. It was irresponsible, reckless and utterly deceptive. The same punters who now are cranky with 5 interest rate rises since 2004 are cranky at him for trying to swindle them.
2. Since when has Joe Hockey EVER known what up-and-coming IR policies were in the pipeline? Remember the “Safety Net”? He didn’t have clue about it. Why should he change the habit of a political lifetime now? And why should Howard start telling him anything? Hockey has been on a suicide mission dressed up as a glorious counter-attack since he became minister for IR… and he doesn’t realise it (but soon will).
269, Or take the great Beattieslide of 17 Feb 2001, when the Libs were reduced to only 3 seats, with Labor demolishing Lib strongholds in Brisbane, and on the Gold and Sunshine Coasts. Or the two last NT elections, where the CLP lost a huge number of seats in both, despite the electorates being much smaller (~5000) than for Federal electorates.
The Galaxy polls have not showed much change in the Coalition or Labor’s primary vote over the last few months, The Coalition in the low 40’s and Labor in the mid 40’s. Unless the polls change Labor is going to win the election with a big swing of between 5-7%.
The Queensland Liberals now have eight members in parliament and not a clue or tactic between them. A four all factional split is all that keeps them from imploding… well until after the Federal election anyway when the member for Clayfield will challenge Fleegg’s leadership.
Thanks much for that
:) …. I just signed my note and forwarded the message to about 8 of my friends and relatives 
frank frederic – so ‘no change to interest rates’ is a clear favourite? That’s surprising.
FF @ 271
“BetFair offers: NoChange: $1.14 / Raise.25: $7.6″
What?!? Surely that is the wrong way around?
The govt was able to scrape by in 1998 because the marginal seat holders were just elected, and the govt had an advantage. Now, with Labor’s primary way up, that advantage has disappeared. After 11 years, they’ve already reaped as much advantage from their marginals as they’re going to get. The Newspoll shows a 7% swing against the govt in their own marginals, even though it includes Wentworth, Boothby and Bennelong, which may, for various reasons, have a below-average swing.
Lord D @ 280 – not only that, as Possum has pointed out, the difference in 1998 was the coalition got so many One Nation preferences.
210 Andrew and Steven Kaye,
Speaking of undecided voters, I recall reading somewhere earlier this morning (can’t find link at the moment) that 20% of the Galaxy voters in this poll were supposedly “undecided”. I know that Antony said over the weekend that historically, it is the case that undecideds break 2 to 1 in the favor of whatever the current polling trend is. That means that if the 20% is accurate and history holds true this time, Rudd will get 2/3 of those 20% or a bit over 13% of the 20%. That won’t help the coalition. They are done and dusted.
sorry RGee, GaryBruce and all
my bad
yes, it’s the other way around:
NoChange: $7.6
Raise.25: $1.14
Howard says he can’t control inflation which causes higher interest rate, then where is this experience they talk about.
As usual Howard blames other factors for his failings, the drought and oil prices.
Inflation is caused by rising prices, the government can do something about that. Howard and ACCC boss Samuel are on record as saying there is nothing wromg with a business seeking to maximise its profits.
As Mayo pointed out the big two Coles and Woolies are making record profits as are many other companies, an effective ACCC may have been able to keep a lid on these rising prices and inflation.
The drought, well back in 2002 Beattie asked for Federal help to buy out Cubbie Station, this would have released billions of litres of water for farming, but Howard rejected Beattie. Pity, we still have Cubbie but you can’t eat cotton.
Bracks also asked for Federal assistance for pipelines in Victoria to pipe water to farm areas, knocked back by Howard unless the pipelines were privatised. Pity, the fruit and vegetable basin in Victora may well have had more water for irrigation.
In 2004 the states asked Howard for a national water policy on water to buy out licenses and manage water better, rejected again until Howard came up with his back of the envelope plan earlier this year.
Oil prices, can’t do much about them but you can about the petrol prices. ACCC is holding an inquiry now into petrol pricing, this after years of people saying that the concentration of petrol retailing into the hands of the two majors, Woolies and Coles was forcing prices up, especially with the use of the shop a docket vouchers. Pity we didn’t have an inquiry earlier and had to wait for an election, maybe we would have lower petrol prices, lower inflation and lower interest rates.
Howard also abolished the maximum wholesale price cap on petrol that had been in place for years and now the oil campanies are making record profits,. Pity, maybe keeping the cap would have kept inflation low.
Howard also put a 62% tariff on imported ethanol, this benefited Howards close friend and liberal party donor Onan, who produces ethanol himself. Pity, cheaper ethanol would have meant cheaper petrol and lower inflation.
Keatings plans for super included raising it from 9% to 15%, if Howard had continued with this plan wage increases would have been traded off for the super increase. Pity, it would have meant less pressure on inflation and interest rates.
Plenty Howard could have done to control prices, inflation and interest rates, he and Costello justed needed to get off their ar*es and do something for once.
A message to the farmers from their representative in cuckoo land.
http://news.brisbanetimes.com.au/interest-rate-hike-not-inevitable-vaile/20070305-184l.html
Money has started to come in for Labor in individual seats now.
http://jackman.stanford.edu/blog/
The 76 seats for Labor is up from 74, which was where it was the last few weeks.
The expected Labor seat count is also well up now.
Can someone send this to Mark Vaile with an explanation of what the National Party policies have caused?
http://www.asx.com.au/sfe/targetratetracker.htm
Perhaps there’s a connection between the low numbers in the Galaxy poll who would blame the government for an interest rate rise and the apparent disconnect between the consistent primary and 2PP figures and the question about managing the economy.
Maybe the punters really do realise that the government hasn’t got much hope of controlling the economy anyway, so they’re basing their vote on other things, like social and foreign policy.
Well if the undecided 20% do break 2/1 towards the trend then Labors vote will increase a little.
Once the National Party in Canberra would have been fighting to keep petrol and diesel prices low for farmers. Now they just sit there timewasting and allow whatever Howard wants to happen. I think they might be in for a nasty surprise on election night. Country people have never taken too kindly to bludgers.
I was almost moved to tears reading about Rudd (bless him) making his announcement to help the homeless and less well off. Makes you feel all warm inside.
Hopefully very soon now, say in 3 weeks, I’ll no longer be ashamed of my nationality and will be able to stop pretending I’m a Kiwi!
198-Dont both countries also have the unfairest voing system around in first-past-the post? In the UK its working in Labours favour at the moment but they really should have changed it to a preferential system when they had the chance. It would have kept the Tories out for generations.
Announcing money for homeless accommodation is only of benefit to the homeless. How many homeless people were going to vote for the Coalition?
Krudd is really an electoral buffoon.
Caroline Overton had a hilarious piece in the GG this morning. Apparently poor old imre salanuski (sp?) is suffering from Stockholm syndrome due to the fact that he’s hung out on the Labor Campaign bus for the last few days and now thinks Labor will win. Presumably shes implying that the Labor party are akin to political terrorists – which I suppose would accord with the perspective of the rag she writes for.
But hold on, brave and noble Caroline is not going to run off with those bad boys from the labor party – nor worry herself with the avalanche of polling predicting a landslide for Labor. No – the Garret gaffe, reflecting as it does Hubris in the Labor camp means that Labors lead is about to crumble and little johnny will just hang on.
With incisive analysis like this why would anyone consult possum. And to think she’s won two Walkleys. Journalism in oz really is at an all time low.
301 Nosrils, talking of buffoons have we had any explanation from the coalition why the household debt to savings ratio is negative and has been since 2001?
Bahahahahah!!! Oh Nostro!
Nostradamus
Maybe he was just feeling sorry for John Howard when he gets evicted from Kirribilli.
Asanque Howard does own his own home, so he wouldn’t be homeless.
SERENITY NOW!
New Moss Report just released showing free speech and democracy have reached an all time low under the Ratking. Evidently, if the Ratking doesnt like it, it didnt happen.
http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,22704172-5006301,00.html
Nostradamus, I can tell your political views are deeply rooted.
This kind of comment really shows you where Howard and his supporters are coming from. It perfectly typifies the kind of Australia that JH has sought to create – a culture of pure greed and complete disregard for anyone else.
Maybe, just maybe, there ARE still a few decent people left out there Nostrodamus, who now realise what a heartless, evil, manipulative little creep Howard really is.
Nostrils get a look at this for great economic management.
http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/mf/5202.0?OpenDocument
Nostra give a good insight into the psychology of a coalition supporter. Presumably the ‘whats in it for me’ mindset can’t comprehend why Rudd would bother helping the homeless when they already vote for him. Onya Nostra you poor sod. Some people who are well of actually like to help out the poor. Ever heard of that one. They live in seats like wentworth, northsydney and bennelong funnily enough…
Hockey told the Seven Network: “I will resign as a minister in the Howard Government if there are any SUBSTANTIAL changes or any of the changes that Julia Gillard has just flagged,”
The last part is confusing. Does Hockey say that he will resign from politic / government if Coalition loses the election?! There will be a by-election at Hockey’s electorate if Coalition loses but Hockey clings on?
Also, the trick is in “SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES”, if Coalition wins, Hockey would argue any Coalition change to WorkChoice is NOT substantial and hence stays on. Business as usual. But that will be irrelevant because Coalition’s gonna to lose the election.
Coffee bean poll also being run by another big east coast chain. At my local and one other is showed a big pro-ALP count in the jar. Now if that aint science…..
Nostradamus:
Yes, and its been vacant for a long time.
However, Howard is now renovating it.
Guess he knows he’ll need it soon.
Looks like Turncoat could be in hot water again:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/11/05/2081726.htm
frank frederick @ 312:
Note that Hockey says that he will “resign as a minister in the Howard Government”, rather than, say the Costello government. This is just more sneaky language from the bloke who lives next door to Howard – he’s learned from his neighbour.
But I agree that the Libs are utterly stuffed, and it’s been hilarious reading the comments of the people who think they’re in with a chance. It’s 1996, people, except the names of the parties have been reversed.
“Krudd really is an electoral buffoon.”
That must explain why the ALP have a rock solid 47% Primary vote.
Got your money on yet, Nostro?
Perhaps penalising the homeless a bit more, like more strict rules on begging, would (1) make the place safer for the ordinary person and (2) discourage being homeless, i.e. make them actually not waste their welfare payments and do some work.
# 315 – That’s fantastic. And Peter Cundall is a journalist who enjoys an excellent reputation.
315 The Garrett v Turnbull debate might see the pair of them turn up an hour late if this keeps up, Econocrat.
You wouldn’t feel the same if YOU were out on the streets. This was, always has been and always will be, the Labor way. Take care of everyone, including those who can’t take care of themselves. We must, as a kind and decent society, look after those who aren’t as well off as ourselves. Libs have never been on that ship and never will be. I challenge you to spend 24 hours living on the streets and then come back and rubbish our next Prime Minister for taking care of the homeless.
People (mainly Liberals) are making the wrong comparison on interest rates. Do not compare with historical rates – compare with similar economies now! What you find is that interest rates in Aus are right up there at or near the top. Ask why is that so? Then look at the $A and our balance of trade. Now are you getting the picture?
301@Nostradamus
The homeless may not vote for the Liberals, but what about all those who work in Health, Community, Social, Emergency,Financial and Legal fields that work bring them into contact with the Homeless and others who appear to have missed out on the Economic boom.
I know many of these people and they mostly live in Liberal Party seats, many don’t belong to Unions, many are fed up with Howard’s failure to Goven, Rudd’s policy will play very nicely with this lot.
Julie if this is such an issue for Labor why is it such a problem if we’ve had State Labor Governments in this past decade?
Why should the federal government waste money on the homeless when the States and Local Councils should be dealing with it?
Serenity NOW!
Helping out homeless people helps me, Nostro, by making my community a better and nicer place to live.
Nostra, you’re one sick puppy. If Rudd’s homeless policy is as silly as you say, we’ll find out in due course. Happily, it looks like the sort of nonsensical drivel you spout will stop resonating once Howard’s gone. An event which draws closer by the day.
Lets compare the following responses,
Nostro slags policy
Glen makes sensible point about the total and utter failure of the state govts to deal with these issue.
I wonder which is the more intelligent comeback.
Glen @ 324,
You can go out on the streets with Nostradamus and then come back and tell us what you thought of it. Any Liberal who wants to trash this policy, take a reality check and come back to report how it was. Labor will always take care of those less well off. This is a huge vote winner
:)
First ‘Bastard Boys’, now ‘Gardening Australia’. The ABC can’t help itself.
I think Nostrils has returned to his favourite hobby: winding us up. Let’s not waste too much bandwidth. Nice to see you back for the death throes, Nostra.
Julie all im saying is when’s the last time we’ve heard State Labor Premiers talking about the homeless = never.
So if this is such a really important policy area for the ALP, Mr Rudd is but a recent convert as his State counter parts obviously haven’t thought it a big enough issue to spend multi-million dollar sums of money on the problem, or asking the Commonwealth for assistance?
324 It is a Federal Government responsibility through SAAP funding. Which has been cut to shreds by the Howard regime. Rent Assistance has risen only $8.00 during the life of the Howard Government – no wonder there are so many homeless people.
http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/bb8db737e2af84b8ca2571780015701e/DE6A64FB4A7A7F38CA2570DE0008B499?opendocument
If you want to know what the general feeling of the electorate is, look no further than who is in power in every state. The majority of whom won their most recent election in overwhelming landslides despite voters being less than satisfied with their performances previous.
Glen
Ever heard of the Commonwealth State Housing Agreement ?
liz, it’s not about you.
nostradamus @ 3 301
This post demonstrates the absolute barrenness of a political ideology which sees political decisions exclusively through the prism of the winning of the next election. It is this short term practice which has been the hallmark of the rodent’s reign. Howard is incapable of seeing beyond the gaining of any short term political gain, beyong the winning of the next election. His political biography reflects his view that it is the political game that is of supreme importance. There is no end beyond that. It is why the emperor has no clothes and why the coming electoral cataclysm will be of biblical proportions.
# 328 – Julie, unfortunately, twenty four hours on the streets in Mosman is called “a night out”.
Thanks for finding the evidence, Steve. I knew it was there somewhere. I don’t know the ins and outs of government as much as some of you who grew up with it
:).
Nice to see we will have some compassion back in the Lodge for awhile
:):)
Wrong. Mike Rann had a policy of reducing homelessness at the last S.A. election.
But how much had he talked about it before the election?
How many times has Rudd mentioned the homeless before the election = 0.
Cundall should spread his allegations through “The Gardening Show”. Would go right into the soft underbelly of Liberal support.
Far more effective than the angry ramblings of Steve price on a radio station that no one listens to.
When the flowerpots turn against you, things are really crook!
Cundall is a lefty though GG.
Good link, Steve. I found out I’m $112 a fortnight worse off than I was in ‘96. I clearly recall during the 96 campaign that Howard was asked about rumours that he planned to cut rent assistance programmes. He denied it. He said he’d keep the rate the same. Then about a week after he got elected, he raised the threshhold, effectively cutting the payment rate. This was the first time I realised just how weasel-wordy he could be.
Agree with GG. Rann flipped so fast on water restrictions in SA when the gardeners rebelled y9ou wouldnt believe it.
alister 316
Re Hockey guarantee WorkChoices won’t “SUBSTANTIALLY” change and if it does he will resign. Well that is no guarantee at all for working people because there is no guarantee Mr Shrek will be in the same portfolio little own a minister in the next parliament if the Libs win.
Howard might just put in a more accommodating person like Minchin, Abbott, Nelson, Bishop or Ruddock into the IR portfolio. So much for no change…
Rann talked about it a lot, because there was a dispute over renovating an area of the city where emergency housing is. Rann’s argument was that the emergency housing was more important than letting investors capitalise on the sky rocketing land values.
330 [Julie all im saying is when’s the last time we’ve heard State Labor Premiers talking about the homeless = never.]
Ever wonder why the state premiers win so convincingly Glen? It’s because they talk about these sort of issues regularly. Perhaps you don’t quite understand what people mean when they say the Liberals are out of touch. Your comment is a good example of how out of touch Liberals really are at present.
Hockey had learnt much from his boss re weasel words. The key offender of course being the word ’substantially’.
If enough people are stupid enough to vote for this bunch of devious incompetent bastards, then they deserve all that they will indoubtedly get.
Well, to be fair, the S.A. opposition leader talks alot about water security. See his ’solution’ is to double water rates for EVERYONE, excluding farms and businesses.
Glen and Nostradamus, how do you sleep at night. I repeat my observation that Republican voters have almost three times as many nightmares as Democrat voters (International Conference for the Study of Dreams July 2001). Thats the only time when your dark souls cannot control your consciences.
They’ll just change everything once elected Hahahahahaha
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/11/05/2081726.htm
Goodness gracious me Glen,
Now you want to mount a Liberal smear campaign against a popular celebrity gardener.
Who is next, “The Wiggles”?
Time to get over yourself, me thinks.
[They’ll just change everything once elected Hahahahahaha
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/11/05/2081726.htm
This story kind of sucks though, it will increase the chance of Turnbull winning Wentworth.
Snakeboy,
Will take your word for it
. I grew up in America so don’t know what Mosman and other similar areas are like 
.
The gist of the message still stands though. For those who are critical enough to throw “proverbial stones” at Rudd for wanting to take care of those less well off, they should take their place there for awhile and see if they aren’t pleased when the shoe is on the other foot, that someone is taking care of them. If they’ve been evicted because they can’t make ends meet, they ought to know that in spite of their previous hard nosed anti Labor policies, if they are caught out on the streets, we would still take care of them. No one asks who you vote for when you show up at a shelter looking for a hot meal.
Take this one for an example of someone whom Rudd’s policies would help. This is a cut and paste from an open letter on Julia Gillards MySpace website. {I’ve removed all of the identifying details just to be on the safe side}
*****
Dear Ms Gillard,
I write to you to ask for help.
I am a [**] year old single parent of two adult children. My eldest child [*******] is [**] years old and is intellectually disabled. He is a client of [***********] in [*********]. My other child [*********] is almost 18 and has recently started work.
I have been looking for employment since January this year. I have applied for many job in many different areas of work. But due to needing to be available for my son when he is home I have been unsuccessfull.
All I ask is that I be given a fair go. I have been home for the last 18 years raising my children, the last 10 of those on my own with the children. During this time we have survived on sole parent pension and child support or carers pension and carers allowance with my sons disability pension and child support.
With my daughter now being 18 the child support will stop and we are in danger of being homeless as without working I can no longer make the mortgage payments.
I have done all the right things in looking for work. I registered with Wise Employment. I am also registered with coles, woolworths, seek, careerone, hippo, my career, I look in the local papers every week.
I just want to work so that I can provide for my family and still be there for my son when he needs me. I have been trying to get work as a domestic cleaner in this area as that would allow me to have the hours I need.
I have often thought that I must not be alone in this. There must be other parents of disabled children going through the same thing as myself and its not fair we just want a fair go and don’t want to be punished just cause we have disabled children.
Yours sincerely
*****
It is people like this whom the Howard Government has ignored. Rudd and Labor will help all those who are less well off, like this lady.
Compassion is on its way back folks
:):):)
I suggest if the ALP run a hard campaign in the last 2 weeks they will take a larger share of that 20%. They have yet to start their main campaign.
And while the Labor members in Queensland regularly discuss these issues the main talking point of the Liberals is the latest dramatic factional fight breaking out between Nat and Lib or Lib and Lib. It must be wearing because I haven’t noticed them putting in much of an effort to help Howard win the election. He’s on his own up here.
steve
Bruce Flegg has officially been locked in a cupboard. The Liberal Party has gagged him.
356,
Ruawake, must be hiding Barry O’Farrell from NSW in the same dark cupboard
Must be a big cupboard!
Ted Baillieu has been locked in his personal wine cellar
356 Seeney has been just as invisible too. Think they are sulking over the council amalgamations not changing a vote in the state and Springborg is set to strike once the Federal election is out of the way too. If I was in a rabble like that I think that I would hide too.
# 358 – A very big cupboard indeed. And big enough to take Steven Kaye, as well.
Once the election is over Glen and Nostro should be deported to UTAH.
Wow an even more radical immigration policy from the left deport white middle class Australians overseas because they don’t believe all of Rudd’s slogan’s…
361 I think a coalition leader in hiding is always a good look. Seeney will probably put out a press release or two during the campaign and then shake his head on election night and say if only they asked me for my wisdom they’d have won.
Under Howard, being an Australian citizen doesn’t stop one from being deported.
No steve that will be Kroger.
Glen
You can say all the negative things you like about Peter Cundall, but I suspect a few facts remain: he is respected as a former wartime POW, he would have a reputation for being straightforward, and he is no doubt popular with all those old gardener retirees who like his show. It would seem to me that would all make him popular with a significant chunck of Howard’s core constituency. Attack him all you like… your just digging yourself a deeper hole.
Glen – showing your biases there.
Why does deporting WHITE Australians make the policy more radical?
Vivian Solon was just as Australian as me and you (I assume) and Cornelia Rau is white!!!
At least Kroger has been on National TV. Seeny hasn’t even made it to the local papers.
None, your mob has completely abandoned them.
In any case, Rudd’s not merely helping out the homeless, he’s making provision for the next generation of WorkChances’ victims.
Just to annoy Nostradamus, I suspect Labor’s plan is to build the new accommodation for the homeless in marginal Coalition seats. The homeless can then voter Labor and make a difference.
And I understand John Howard admitted to the Bananas in Pyjamas that WorkChoices was a mean and nasty policy, designed to hurt those least able to help themselves.
However, because the Bananas are unable to speak, they have been unable to leak details of the conversation.
All i said was that his political persuasion was not to the right it was more to the left, i didn’t smear his reputation or doubt that he was being honest about his conversation.
ShowsOn then i will qualify, Australian ‘born’ citizen.
Going on how the Libs use the Republican rule book they will say he was “AWOL” and not a POW.
Ruawake,
Given his skill with coalition leadership teams, perhas someone should ask Bruce Flegg who would be Prime Minister after the elction if Howard wins? Does he know?
The right’s ridiculous [i]ad hominem[/i] habit aside, am I right in thinking he once stood for the senate – for the CPA?
Cornelia Rau is not Australian she is German you fool, she had residency.
And she was bonkers, who wouldn’t call their family or tell police where your family was? She brought it on herself, far as im concerned.
yes of course – low cost housing and more railways in Liberal seats.
Love it.
‘Cundall was a Tasmanian Senate candidate for the Communist Party of Australia. He also supports many left wing political and environmental groups by speaking at rallies and events. He is a keen environmentalist.’
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peter_Cundall#Political_career
Just to back up my claim he is a lefty, and that it was not a smear.
374 Socrates, who is going to be Liberal Treasurer if the Libs win but Howard loses Bennelong?
Good on ya Glen. Its good to see a compassionate Liberal person.
I’ll try again –
The right’s ridiculous ad hominem habit aside, am I right in thinking he (Peter Cundall) once stood for the senate – for the CPA?
Yeah, he did stand for the CPA. He also is an active union member of MEAA.
Nostro is clearly joking here – let’s not all be Steve Price on him and take out of context what is evidently humour.
“And she was bonkers, who wouldn’t call their family or tell police where your family was? She brought it on herself, far as im concerned.”
You’ve hit rock bottom as far as I’m concerned, Glen. If we can’t protect the most vulnerable in our society, we’re a pretty poor excuse for a civilised country.
It’s a competition called dog eat dog and survival of the fittest as far as Glen is concerned.
Im sorry but even for people with mental illness, how difficult is it to contact her family when she wont speak english or tell the police her details.
Anyway she wasnt an Australian citizen so who cares?
Deport her to Germany.
Lovely Glen, the warm heart of the right continues to remain cold and still. No doubt Vivian Solon had what was coming to her also?
Glen,
Yes she was bonkers.
But the thing is, that people who are “bonkers” need help – not deporting.
This, I think, is the fundamental difference between you and I.
Glen, do people choose to have a mental disease? How can they bring it on themselves?
‘Serenity Now, Insanity Later’ TofK.
Glen – Rau was also mentally ill, and caught in a privately run system without adequate safety checks.
Apart from the question of who goes into the business of locking up asylum seekers to make a bit of cash (what sort of society does that indicate – everything is NOT a business), the government is culpable for creating a system that has allowed people to be dealt with like this, so it could wash its hands of the more ugly aspects of its policies.
Steve,
Substitute “the Libs are” for “Glen is”
I never said they brought it on themselves, but its not hard to speak english and tell police your details and where your family are?
Glen,
Do you think he made up the conversation because he is a “lefty”?
It is a gratuitous smear to help you and your brethren avoid objectively analysing what he had to say.
I’m not much taken with attacking other posters, but Glen, you need to educate yourself about mental illness (especially psychotic illness) before posting again. If you’d like some suggestions for day centres looking for volunteers, I can help. One thing that sufferers of chronic schizophrenia always say they want, more than money, is more friends.
I never said that GG, i just said he was a lefty, i never said that he made up the conversation!
SERENITY NOWWWWWWW!
I continue to believe Nostro is a lefty enjoying his artistic licence so as to elicit emotional responses from the heart. Bringing out the humanity of the left in a cold and heartless world by playing the devils advocate, and of course extracting the true opinion of the RW commentators for what they are, uncaring and self-serving closet autocrats.
Actually Glen, schizophrenics often lose the ability to speak their second language (in this case English) when they are psychotic.
Glen i think you’ve had an empathy bypass.
Glen is also clearly adopting the jocular repose of Garrett.
Glen, as you frequently demonstrate but might not be aware, paranoid delusions often prevent people with mental illness from providing police with details. Mean AND ignorant! Isn’t that the problem with your side of politics?
Well this poll has me thinking I should go through my election night checklist:
Good bottle of bubbly – check
Internet link and big TV to watch results – check
Well insulated house so neighbors not disturbed by shouts of joy – check
Out of ideas government – check
Energised opposition – check
Too old PM – check
Credible opposition leader – check
Polls predict government flogging – check
Polls predict PM’s historic loss of own seat – check
Local Liberal member in danger of defeat – check
Interest rate rise due to kill Liberal’s last hope – check
Ability to see look on Glen and Nostros faces – darn.
Even without that last box checked, the schardenfreud-o-meter is of the scale.
Then Diogenes how come she didn’t have any ID on her or a mobile phone on her or anything to say who she was i mean if you have mental issues like that you should take pracautions?
‘Serenity Now, Insanity Later’
Interesting, Diogenes at 398.
I didn’t know that.
Is this new Liberal policy?
The following is word for word on Jason Wood’s (La Trobe) pamphlet just delivered.
THE NUCLEAR ENERGY DEBATE.
Nuclear energy is a fact of life and an important energy source in thirty countries across Europe, Asia and North America. However, I remain unconvinced that nuclear power is crucial to more low emission energy in Australia’s energy mix – especially given our riches of alternative energy sources like solar and wind. While many countries around the world use nuclear energy without incident , my greatest concern remains nuclear waste disposal. until safer methods of waste disposal are developed it will not have my support.
That is why I do not support nuclear power in Australia.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/11/05/2081849.htm?section=justin
Glen, has Brough finished measuring Bribie Island for the Nuclear Power station yet?
Glen – becuase she was “bonkers”. We’ve been through this.
If she was behaving rationally then she wouldn’t be psychotic would she?
A new Liberal Mental Health Policy:
Only those displaying ABSOLUTELY NO SYMPTOMS of their disease are eligible for treatment……
402,
Socrates, which local Lib (elecotorate) are you putting out of office, hopefully?
:) [I am in a safe Labor seat, but good on you for helping the cause]
Serenity Now, Steve
Serenity Now.
#
386
Glen Says:
November 5th, 2007 at 2:08 pm
Im sorry but even for people with mental illness, how difficult is it to contact her family when she wont speak english or tell the police her details.
Anyway she wasnt an Australian citizen so who cares?
Deport her to Germany.
You are an absolute disgrace glen-even for a Tory. This is the sort of compassion-less drivel that is prevalent in conservative parties these days. These days what am I saying? Blamingthe victim has always been a core Tory conviction.You are a shocker.
No Steve, he had to start again because he was still operating on the imperial measurement system.
We will have serenity on 24th November when the Rodents concession speech is deliverd.
Gee, I enjoy this site! I only found it whilst web browsing the other night. I am over 60 and follow every election with great interest. Iam not rich, and still have a small mortgage, which will be paid off shortly, so know what interest increases have produced.
I have had cancer twice, and am still not in remission, so I know what the health system is like
I well remember past years as do nearly every other senior member of the community, and I must confess that at one stage I was a swinging voter, and that I actually helped Fraser defeat Whitlam. But then I saw the light as to what was actually happening under the libs, and have never voted for them since, my conscience just will not allow it.
There are many posts which defy logic,(you know the ones),and when I read them I feel ashamed to be Australian. This “greed is good mentality” displayed is just so abhorrent, and typical of liberal voters. They have no compassion other to themselves, and care little for the country as a whole. When things do not appear to be going their way , they resort to mud-slinging and name calling.
I hope the polls are correct and that all the predictions come to fruition, and that there will be a change in Govt, then at least we may get a little compassion back.
As for Nostrodamus, perhaps you should change your id to IGNORAMUS .I have never heard such bile about the homeless, and you should feel shame for your insensitivity, but then, what does one expect from liberals?
glen @ 403 – are you actually serious? if you are, then you really need to get yourself a bit of education about severe mental illness. you have no idea.
Glen,
Given the offensive nonsense you have been spouting today, here is a recording by another happy bunch of travellers that had similar ideas to you.
http://au.youtube.com/watch?v=EdM8PDu6VMg
<a href=”http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Serenity_(film)”Serenity?
Glen,
Even if the immigration department actually believed Rau was German, why not contact the German embassy, get her identified, and then try to contact her (presumed) family in Germany? You still wouldn’t dump a mentally person in limbo. They completely screwed this up. If the roles were reversed, and the German government did this to a mentally ill Australian citizen in germany, what would we call them? For that matter, if the government has handled this case correctly, how come we are negotiating a six figure settlement with her lawyers?
Ironically, I think this is an example of one of many blunders made by immigration that was not necessarily the fault of the current government. In my time in Canberra I found Immigration to be one of the most bureaucratic and incompetent departments in the federal public service. But instead of just being annoyed and using it as a chance to clean up the mess, this government goes for standard response number one – deceit and denial. Then when the undeniable evidence of failure comes in, they look guilty. And they are guilty – of the cover up.
Another gem by Jason Wood (Lib, La Trobe)….
Australia should be a world leader in emissions trading and this should be the centrepiece of any climate change strategy as the Kyoto Protocol targets do not go far enough.
She is trying to sue the Australian Government for something she was partly to blame for, so 150million for the homeless a fair chunk out of that would go to her because he didnt take precautions for her illness. I’m not saying our system didnt work properly i am saying she is partly to blame. I don’t apologise for that and how come she wasn’t on medication???
Julie Howard will repeat Lloyd Braun’s classic quote in a concession speech if he loses, “Serenity Now, Insanity Later” – with facial twitch.
Bugger. Serenity?
Sean 302 on Caroline Overington’s fluff piece
Here was my contribution:
Caroline, of course the Libs can still win the election. Is this an insight you are offering as an insider? But has this anything to do with Garret’s Gaffe which incidentally is peanuts compared to Abbott’s attack on a dying man. And what about Burkegate, Reinergate, Strippergate, Earwaxgate etc, were they not all going to sink the Labor party’s re-election chances?
Do the polls matter to you at all? Do they have any meaning when you write your “analysis”? The insight you are offering is indeed insightful but for entirely different reasons. Your piece offers a glimpse into an abyss – the void! In this vast emptiness and nothingness we find – The horror – The horror! Could the Libs really lose? Could voters be so stupid?
Glen @376
Ha!
Even for you Glen, that’s one helluva statement!
Julie 409,
I’m in Sturt (SA) which was not marginal but with the big swing in SA is a chance to fall. I’m happy to call it 50/50 now. It would be good to see Chris Pyne explore other career options, but if Kirribilli is made rat free on 24 Nov I won’t really care.
420 [I’m not saying our system didnt work properly]
Actually very little works properly in Howard’s Australia and we can only hope the Quarantine and hospital systems are fixed before horseflu is replaced by birdflu. The slashing of standards of service is matched only by the slashing of funding under this regime,
Glen @376
Did you realise that Cornelia Rau is related to General Wenck?
When General Wenck is the Libs only last realistic hope, why would you demonise his offspring and bring a pox on the Libs house?
Are you trying to bring everyone down with you to your level? Apres nous le deluge!
JHIAC you mean Liberal Bunker don’t you?
Glen, do you know how hard it is to get medication for mental illness in this country? There are few specialists even in the cities and people with severe mental illness often have to wait weeks or months for referrals, especially in regional areas. If they are admitted, they’re usually released within a week and even those with severe symptoms are often have minimal outpatient contact (eg. a phone call from a mental health nurse weekly). Many suicide. Yet the Howard Government’s health policy delivers discounts on running shoes and deluxe gym memberships for the wealthy through it’s reprehensible health insurance rebate. howrd’s $30 per week tax cuts won’t change the ugly truth of this situation.
Damien with great respect, who has constitutional power over Health?
The States are the ones failing the system, they have failed and yet you blame Howard.
Glen, stop digging. You are way out of your depth and trashing what little is left of your own reputation.
And here is another good example of the hard right’s view of how the disabled and sick should be treated:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/main.jhtml?xml=/opinion/2007/11/03/do0304.xml
Hmm, Howard using Death to porkbarrell a road.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/11/05/2081987.htm?section=justin
glen, three words for you: vertical fiscal imbalance.
Well, when the Tasmanian Government decided to make the hard call (almost universally agreed with by Health professionals) to rationalise the Tasmanian system the Howard Federal Government undermined the policy for naked political ends.
The Federal Government’s share of income is rising but share of Health expenditure is falling.
I think that about explains why we blame Howard.
Yeah and the GST cash flow to the States is rising, explain that passthepopcorn?
Passthepopcorn 334, I was trying to make a broader philospohical point about wanting to live in a society in which homeless people are helped, therefore it is, in that sense about me, and about all of us and the sort of country in which we want to live.
Once the election has past, I’d happily agree to the establishment within this country (somewhere near West Wyalong, say) of a heavily secured secessional enclave of disillusioned Young Liberals such as Glen and Tabitha. Fairgoistan (say) could act, on the one hand, as an independent state within a state – unpolluted by the arrogant, imperial, dogmatic, bigoted, narrow-minded, mean-spirited, racially-intolerant and graspingly-aspirational citizens of The Left – and, on the other, as a kind of rehabilitation camp. Workshops and training seminars could be held to help these young folk re-find themselves after their (Wollstonecraft) Warlord’s catastrophic demise, featuring conservative warm-up clowns such as Bolt, Ackerman, Albrechtsen and Jones and goofy, hilariously countercultural vaudevillians such as Pearson, Divine, Henderson and Windshuttle. They could all dress up in jodhpurs and play polo together on a dirt pitch, exchange pastoral fantasies, eat truffles and playfully accuse the weaker and less witty of their number of being homosexual, tree-fetishising, abortion-loving, cycle-commuting, Pilger-worshipping, Radio-National-podcasting, election-sabotaging losers.
What do you reckon G & T?
I don’t quite believe it, but if 38% of voters in the Galaxy poll haven’t made up their mind, then Labor should be at least a bit concerned.
Glen, perhaps everyone with a mental illness should be microchipped. Then you could keep track of them. And why not sterilise them at the same time. If it was good enough for Adolf…
Maybe Glen has a point; we shouldn’t blame Howard for everything. Only the things he actually caused, like WorkChoices. Here’s a headline I’d like to see:
“Howard Denies Responsibility for Prosperity”
“I can’t take the credit for our prosperity”, said the PM. “After all the economy was already on the rise when we took office. It was part of a world wide trend, just like the low interst rates. Our GDP growth per capita is actually similar to Europe’s. Obviously I had nothing to do with China’s growth either, which was the main cause of growth here. And don’t blame me for low interest rates – that was all Keating’s fault!”, said the defiant PM.
Look, I object to these comments about rats. Rats are intelligent hardworking
inoffensive creatures. It’s not appropriate to refer to John Howard as a rat.
I like rats …and so do our pythons.
Glen, I was going to mention the 353 men, women and children who died on SIEVX on October 15 2001. Silly me, they weren’t Australians, they weren’t even people. No, they were asylum-seekers and queue-jumpers.
http://www.newmatilda.com/home/articledetailmagazine.asp?ArticleID=2529
Will 415
Well said…..
Diogenes you should know that Herr Hitler euthanized the insane, deformed and mentally unfit in Deutschland during the 1930s and 1940s.
Oh course i disagree with such harsh methods, but i believe that ‘when it comes to’ mental illness the State and the individual have a dual responsibility to manage their illness.
Enough said.
Can we please stop feeding the Lib cretin?
Rusted on i don’t believe that incident happened in Australian waters, hence i don’t care what happened in relation to that incident.
Finally a Tory with some common sense.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2007/11/05/nmigrants105.xml
Mark Vale trying to be hip with the Yoof.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/common/imagedata/0,,5735803,00.jpg
Glen @ 376 – as the father of a son who has suffered a severe mental disorder, you comments are crap. Hope I can get to meet you sometime – but check your medical insurance.
Interesting tactic
howard was interviewed on local radio 92.5 (scott levi-lightweight)
allowed to talk uninterrupted along with announcer going ooh, good,great
then when rudd intervied he is interrupted ,sterner voice of interviewer, challenge to every point and doubts expressed about policy statements
those ct “re-education kits” are getting a lot of use
will @ 414
i enjoyed reading your post.
welcome
Alex McDonnel there is a difference between saying someone was partly responsible for their predicament not for their mental illness but for their inability to manage their illness properly and to say they brought it on themselves because of their illness. I hope you take this into consideration while you are rearranging my face should we ever meet.
Actually Glen, his very first act as Chancellor was to bring in sterilisation for the mentally ill. Euthanasia came later. By demonising people for their illness, he has able eventually to convince people like you that killing them was in the German peoples best interests.
I for one am happy to assist in managing the mental illness and apparent Alzheimer’s of Unkie Howard.
I am writing him a prescription of 11 years worth of chickens coming home to roost and a program of shattered delusions of grandeur.
cynic, that’s been the case for a long time. Depsite it, the ALP still leads comfortably.
Diminishing Federal contributions through the health agreement, abject failure to deliver substantial change after release of the April 2006 Senate Report on Mental Health, but more importantly, the strategic positioning of the Federal Government to outsource all rapidly escalating chronic health cost centres while holding onto only the comparatively stable costs associated with end of life.
Diogenes i think we are getting way off track we should be talking about the fall in the Tory primary vote and the stagnant Labor primary vote.
Yeah, leave this level of twerpy thick ‘daddy told me’ bul.sh.t to the branch meetings of the young liberals. Its embarressing.
Glen @457
“the stagnant Labor primary”
Just gold…..i hear Don Bradman’s average ’stagnated’ around 99.94….
Dario
i know uhlmann etc are gone,but guys like levi were impartial up till this week (i listen a lot) thats why I thought a CT makeover may have been applied to the regionals-have other bloggers noticed same?
yes, liz, i get that. with respect, you sound like a social worker.
Nothing like a social worker. Though, there’s nothin wrong with that.
Glen & Nostro, I don’t think this belting-the-homeless caper is helping your cause.
Rather it exposes the pair of you as, well, completely devoid of any compassion for people who’ve had to do it pretty hard. There’s quite a few of them out there, and they’re not all lazy sods. Many are people with mental illness, young people and women escaping abusive situations, people who’ve just had a few crappy breaks (like losing their jobs).
What you fail to recognise is that no-one chooses to be homeless. They don’t just wake-up one day and say to themselves: “Gee, wouldn’t it be a great idea to go and live on a park bench and eat out of rubbish bins.”
So, are you guys representative of what it means to be a Liberal today or what?
If so, I don’t think John Stuart Mill would approve. Maggie Thatcher might, but look what happened to her: Put down by her own party for the good of the same.
why do you guys bother feeding Glenn the troll. Youve successfully allowed this thread (about a 54/46 Galaxy poll- NOT good for Howard) to be hijacked into a discussion on race, mental illness and homelessness. If you dont respond to his posts, he may just go away
Liz – I’m with you.
And I’m an investment banker – about as far from Social Worker as you can get!!!
How many times has Howard changed his core election message during this campaign so far?
His messages are all garbled. One minute we hear that the economy is going so great that we could end up with an unemployment rate with a “3″ in front of it, and only Howard can deliver this. The next minute, news on the economic front is apparently not so great, and therefore we need Howard and his “experience” in order to limit the damage. And then, on one day, Howard is suggesting that WorkChoices has limited wage rises, which has helped to keep inflation from being much worse. And then on a different day, either he or Hockey are saying that WorkChoices delivers higher wages. A while back, Howard and Costello were pointing to their economic management as being responsible for limiting inflation, when figures were not too high, and now, Howard says they are outside his control. And on and on it goes…
Howard is destroying his credibility on matters of economics because he keeps changing his story in order to limit the political fallout on any given day. Either he doesn’t have a good understanding of economics or he really will say anything, and lie, in order to be re-elected.
Why should anyone vote for a man who wants nothing other than to be PM simply for the sake of being PM? There are probably thousands of Australians who would equally like to be PM simply for the sake of having power and luxury. What makes Howard special? Why him? I really do wonder sometimes why we have as many as 46% of people still planning to vote for or preference Howard.
At any rate, Rudd has started to talk about the mixed messages from Howard, but it’s only the tip of the iceberg:
http://www.theage.com.au/news/federal-election-2007-news/pms-big-interest-rate-con/2007/11/05/1194117913943.html
I have opened my sportingbet account (thanks to Alan H of yesterday’s Bennelong blog) and placed my free $100 (you need only $30 to start your account) on Maxine McKew. If she wins, I’ll contribute some of my winnings to William!
Glen, have you considered that in making absurd statements that you could not possibly personally believe (e.g. that you “don’t care what happened in relation to [the SIEV X] incident”), you are: (a) very clumsily and childishly exposing your role as a Young Liberal provocateur and diversion troll; (b) desperately seeking attention, in the manner of a hyperactive pre-teen, by becoming more and more abusive, demeaning (e.g. of Cornelia Rau) and shrill; and (c) acting against your own Young Liberal plan by providing the sophisticated commentators on this site with a platform on which to re-express, and often deepen and intensify, their convictions and to thereby strengthen their solidarity?
Did the Howard Government allow 300 odd people to drown in order to create a re-election event?
Liz, Im also with you. And I’m a plastic surgeon which is even further from a social worker then an investment banker!
This Glen is obviously from the Alex Hawke faction. They really must do something about their roster system. I think it just shows how short they are of personnel.
Howard isn’t responsible for the homeless mentally ill.
Well lets see if you have a person who suffers Mental illness and due to this condition they are unable to contact Centrelink and Centrelink following Howard’s procedures and cut off this person pension then how can Howard not be responsible.
This person was found in a very poor state yet Centrelink had found it too easy too cut off the pension then to find out why they hadn’t been in contact.
Now thanks to the excellent work of certain persons I wont name, Centrelink (the department which never admits to a mistake)
sounds familiar
That person was able to get the care they needed, not from the federal Govt but by a State Govt agencies so while the Federal agency just flicked the switch leaving the State agency to pick up the pieces.
Yes, I know that State Govt is mostly responsible for Social policy but the Federal Govt have a clear responsibly to look after all.
It is fully responsible for pensions and Mental illness isn’t like the common cold, also if the federals are so worried by mental illness why are Psychologist not claimable against Medicare, well this is so Howard like, it is but Howard doesn’t want too many to know this.
20% percent of the population suffer a mental illness of some sort.
What sought of Govt is it.
Howard deserves to lose!
The Liberal Party need more people in the Conservative Right faction.
445
red wombat Says:
November 5th, 2007 at 2:58 pm
Can we please stop feeding the Lib cretin?
I agree, why is everyone pandering to the stupid jumped up little twits’ ego. The sad twerp obviously hasn’t any friends and is more than likely ignored by everyone he has contact with in real life. So he comes on this site and plays you all for fools making racist and negative statements to get you to bite, which feeds his mental illness of delusions of granduer.
I have been enjoying the comments on this site for the past week or so but you have allowed this moron who writes under the names of Glen, Tabitha. nostrils etc to take over and is all becoming a big bore….
There’s no point even trying to reason with Glen and Nostra. They have felt disheartened ever since the government first tanked in the polls. Winding up non-Liberal voters is their way of gaining some kind of satisfaction. It is revenge.
This is why they spend time on a blog where the vast majority of people are non-Liberal voters rather than Ackerman’s or Bolt’s blogs.
Posts 414 (Will) & 442 (Sean) concern me even allowing for the context (a response to a very partisan Liberal blogger). Well intentioned support for one side of politics (predominantly for the Australian Labor Party on this blog) is fair enough. However, to categorise the other side (a little less than half the voting population on current opinion polling figures) as lacking compassion, being greedy and not caring for the country as whole is, as I see it, another form of mud slinging and name calling. It is also divisive and plainly an incorrect generalisation. Further, it is a practice to be avoided because those who do it can too easily convince themselves that they always hold the ‘moral high ground’ over those who do not share their politics. That is pure self indulgence.
Ok, back onto polls, folks
:) …… Newspoll predictions? I will say 56 – 44, same as the most recent ACN and Morgan so for Newspoll, that is an increase of +2 back to Labor.
Newspoll ALP 55 – Libs with Nuts 45
Newspoll has been erratic lately. It could end up anywhere. But I don’t think the Garrett “gaffe” will be having an effect. For a start, I doubt many people even know about it. And second, Howard has a much worse reputation for going back on promises.
My guess would be a status quo result: 56 – 44 or 55 – 45.
Newspoll will be 54-46 again. Unchanged.
55.5 -45.5
55-45
Many thought there would be a narrowing towards the end, most of all Liberals, but the narrowing has only come back to a 55-45 massive lead for Labor.
The final result is still likely to be narrower between 53-47 and 54-46 with wide variations in different seats. Queensland is obviously the key and that may well be very significant for Kevin Rudd.
416 Greeensborough Growler. Brilliant deduction my dear Holmes.
I agree with others. Newspoll unchanged at 54-46.
The NEXT one, after the interest rate rise, will be the one to take notice of.
Antonio, some are trying to convince themselves that the interest rate rise can be turned into a plus for the Coalition! That would be the maddest spin of all. If there is indeed a rate increase it would take several days to sink in and for people to talk about it. The maximum impact would be on election day. It might bring the 55-45 result on the day after all. I still think 54-46 max though.
Glen 452 – re your face -may be you could do a deal with Diogenes!
Has anyone else seen the comment in Crikey today re a Senator Ronaldson telling a friend that, win or lose, Howard will be gone within a week. Do you think that will get a run in the MSM.
Nice comments, Will. Good luck.
Glen said:
This is EXACTLY why I despise the Howard government and many of those who support them. People like you Glen.
Until 2001 I had voted Labor only twice in 3 decades. For me the Lib’s gloss starting loosing its shine when they took over most of Hanson’s racist agenda, followed by Tampa and then the illegal war on Iraq. But what really made my blood boil were the calls following the Cronulla riots to deport foreign born Australian citizens if they broke Australian laws, a notion the Libs weren’t in any hurry to squash.
I couldn’t believe what I was hearing when a local radio host was spruiking the idea on air, so I called the program pointed out that my family arrived in this country when I was 2 yo, had become a citizen as soon as I could and had served in the ADF for 33 years, in part, because I wanted to give something back. So how dare this drongo say I wasn’t really an Australian because I hadn’t been born here! And what was the reply? “So what, you got paid didn’t you?” Yes, I was but I don’t remember getting any more than my locally born peers to compensate for risking my neck while not having full citizenship rights. And it certainly wasn’t anything like what I could have got working for Qantas.
But you know the really disturbing part Glen, for the next hour most of the callers agreed with the F#**wit.
That is what the Howard government has done to this country, Glen. They, and you and your ilk, should be very, very ashamed.
I have only recently (about 3 weeks ago) started reading the blogs on this site (got to know about Pollbludger through Possums Pollytics). I must say this in one of the most informative (and fun) sites and between Poss and Pollbludger I get all the useful information and analyses I need about Elections 2007. So thank you William and other contributors. I live in Adelaide and it looks like we are up for a big swing to ALP. I also think Christopher Payne is in serious danger of losing his seat (probably be determined by FF preferences).
Absolutely no chance in the world that Newspoll will be unchanged. Outside chance of 55/45 but most likely 56/44 or better for ALP
447 Glen. Tory and commonsense. Now thats an oxymoron.
David Charles
If you think glens comments reflect the opinion of half of the australian electorate then I think you’re the one who is slandering people. Glen is welcome here, he can even post, but if the standard drops to a certain level where he is clearly spouting prejudiced illogical and nonfactual nonsense then its valid to question why he should get any attention.
The movement in Newspolls has seemed to be for whoever has been in the press, whether their coverage be good or bad, for the past several weeks. So I wouldn’t be surprised if Labor is up a point or two on the back of both Roxon and Garrett’s press.
487 Su,
Does this Senator say *why* he thinks Howard will be gone within a week if they win? The “if they lose” option is obvious
……
love it Chris, or the sensible conservative.
I’m pretty sure Ronaldson, who comes from Ballarat, is a Costello supporter. He’s pretty influential behind the scenes.
Here, here Mayo,
This primevil minister will be remembered as the most devisive, racist, unethical, dictator in Australia’s history. Not a kind word can be said for this mean little hypocrtit and his bunch of merry prixs!
Banished forever into the primevil slime he has come from.
Yes Richard #485 it’s bizarre logic to suggest that an interest rate rise will bring more support for the coalition. If that was the case, they should be promising higher taxes and a recession, on the basis that the worse it gets, the more we need the coalition.
The only time this logic worked was in 1993, when Keating managed to convince voters that Hewson’s “cure” for the economy was worse than Labor’s malaise.
Hewson was effectively offering WorkChoices, as well as a 10% public service job cut and a 15% GST. Rudd certainly isn’t saddled with any of that.
It’s a brave bludger who’d predict an unchanged Newspoll. They’ve been bouncing around like a panel van in schoolies week. I’m guessing wildly at a high outlier… say 57 ALP – 43 Abusers of the Homeless and the Sick.
Julie – no other comment, just that Howard will be gone in a week. Maybe that was why Howard was so defensive about his agreement with Costello on Insiders yesterday. If he wins Bennelong and the polls are right about the swing elsewhere then the knives will be well and truly out and he could be gone either by stepping down or being made to. I can’t see him staying to sit in Opposition.
Sean (492) Please reread my post and Will’s post (414). You have misrepresented my position and that is very naughty!
I suspect Ronaldson knows Howard is gone in Bennenlong
He is a smart operator!!
updated Newspoll prediction 57-43
Chris B,
I hate Melbourne Ports Liberals as well.
http://au.youtube.com/watch?v=GGp7IFc5jbc
I’ll go with Newspoll back to 58-42, just because I love the sound of Tory wailing and gnashing of teeth.
Dennis to go for “Howard Supported by Over 5 Million Voters” Headline.
As we arrive at the end of his reign I’d like to add this little piece.
Decisions John Howard has made that I am very happy with. And these are pure trivia.
1 – He made the public service use the word ‘programme’ again after the word program was being used in basically all official documents. I liked that.
2 – Howard may wear the rugby union tracksuit, and try to commentate cricket, but his favourite sport is actually soccer. Being a huge soccer fan, I am glad that the PM refers to the sport as football, takes it seriously and has promoted it a lot in Australia. He’s lent some legitimacy to it. For example, (I believe and could be wrong on this) he officially changed the Australian english word for soccer to football. Plus he showed up at the A-League Grand Final and presented the trophy (despite receiving a resounding chorus of boos from the Melbourne crowd for his troubles).
Maybe I could think of more stuff if I tried.
Howard’s lowest moment
Wrapping himself in the flag in 2001, and relying on September 11 and the Tampa and generally being dishonest in saving himself from defeat, panic-mongering the electorat and playing off and stoking racist fears to get people into voting for the Government. Perhaps its sadder, though, that the Australian people believed him.
There hasn’t been, in my opinion, a worse moment since I was born.
There are a few more but this one stands out.
I’ve heard the suggestion that if Labor romp it in with a big margin, that Cossie will pull the pin early in the next term to go into private business, rather than risk sticking around as opposition leader and face an election in three years he knows he wont be able to win.
I agree with the proposition that Howard will be gone quickly whatever the outcome. If the Libs win and he keeps his seat, he will still be pushed out the door very quickly by his party. If the Libs win and he loses his seat, no one in the Libs will be offering him their seat so he can stay on. If Labor wins, irrespective of whether he wins his seat, he will be gone in a flash.
Also, on election night, Howard won’t make a concesion speech. He will deny the outcome on the night saying somehing like ‘we have to wait for the postal votes to come in’. Then, the following day he will quit without any public statement and disappear from view for a very long time. Good.
Uh oh. The program/programme genie is out of the bottle. ‘Programme’ is actually a wanky 19th century Frenchified affectation. ‘Program’ is the original and correct spelling, from the Greek(?) root. I can find links if you want to argue…
Ratsak
I agree 58-42 the beginning of “The Widening”
“Noocat Says:
November 5th, 2007 at 3:40 pm
There’s no point even trying to reason with Glen and Nostra …” exactly!!
I just bet my free $100 on Maxine
Ha ha
Lynton Crosby on agenda just said “When Labor are elected”
Crispy is right. “Program” is more commonly used, and “programme” is an affectation.
The Macquarie Dictoriary says: “Until recently, programme was widely considered the British spelling, and program the American. There are those who like to retain the former spelling for all meanings apart from those which relate to computers, but many people have adopted the spelling program in all cases.”
Get with the program.
What are you saying Diogenes! That Cossie’s not a born statesman? The punters’ll LOVE him once he’s had the long-delayed chin surgery and frontal lobe extraction.
Cossie the BBQ legend. Everybody’s mate. Hawkie in a pin stripe. I’m telling you, he’ll be a ding dong winner once the vermin’s smoked out of Kirribilli.
ricky, i thought johnny warren was responsible for the change to “football” from “soccer”.
There would now be a strong incentive for libs to start distancing themselves from the Rodent with a view to positioning themselves in the post rat era. Ronaldson’s comment should probably be seen in that light…..as with Turnbulls leaking of the cabinet discussion. I imagine howard is an object of strong hatred for many of his colleagues and that they rue the fact that they didn’t boot him after APEC when they had the chance.
378
Glen Says:
November 5th, 2007 at 2:04 pm
‘Cundall was a Tasmanian Senate candidate for the Communist Party of Australia. He also supports many left wing political and environmental groups by speaking at rallies and events. He is a keen environmentalist.’
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peter_Cundall#Political_career
Just to back up my claim he is a lefty, and that it was not a smear.
…
Glen, i’m surprised that you could imply that being called left-wing is in some way insulting. Maybe in the barking-mad branch of the Liberal party, it is not a polite thing to say. But in the rest of society, having leftward inclinations is a sign that human decency still exists.
Re interest rates:
Recalling Teh Furry One’s graph tracking interest rates alongside ALP primary vote, Team Rodent are collectively rooting themselves with the spin “we never knowingly done it” they are dishing in response to the Galaxy push-polling (cf. Bryce 243)
Strategically stupid; deliciously ironic.
My completely unscientific prediction for newspoll is 55/45.
Howard is always banging on about Aussie values. So its interesting how Rudd’s homeless policy has exposed the Howard Liberals’ (especially those posting here) lack of respect for the greatest Aussie value – mateship!
As defined by the government’s own culture.gov.au site, mateship is “a sense of shared experience, mutual respect and unconditional assistance.
On the subject of what the Libs will do when they lose, are you all familiar with the zoological phenomenon of the “ratking”? I kid you not! Its when there are too many rats are in an enclosed space and their tails start knotting mixed with their excrement. They become one organism that must move together and when one rat dies, the others eat it to stop it being a dead weight. There are normally only ten or so rats but there can be up to 30. It reminds me of the Liberal party. And if you dont believe me…
http://everything2.com/index.pl?node_id=611381
Based on Bryan’s analysis of his 5 favourite bookies from yesterday, 3 have moved in ALP’s favour, 1 in LNP’s and another is even. Not sure if they are leaked the result, but I strongly suspect it. Maybe they havent got it yet, or my mind has instilled a fantasy in my perception of reality. Insert conspiracy theories here;
“Also, on election night, Howard won’t make a concesion speech. He will deny the outcome on the night saying somehing like ‘we have to wait for the postal votes to come in’. Then, the following day he will quit without any public statement and disappear from view for a very long time.”
507, Alex, everyone and their mother knows that convention is that the winner doesn’t make his speech until the loser makes his first. No one would let Howard get away with this one, the media will be hounding both Labor and Liberal HQ that night.
Now, I believe you “without any public statement for a very long time”
:) ……
Lol at the program/programme debate.
I just prefer programme! there you go! Me and Johnny can agree on something.
Also, Howard made ‘football’ the official word the same way he made programme the official word. Johnny warren contributed to the popularity of the term and to just about everything else to do with the game.
So is there a 100 dollar free bet deal with any of the bookies for the election? Because I’m happy to jump on Maxine’s odds in Bennelong.
Just saw a national security ad – not a Govt ad anymore but authorised by Mock Keelty AFP.
Sneaky Ratties.
Ricky yep – free $100 at sortingbet if you open an account with $30
oops that’s SPORTINGBET
There is no way Howard will hang around in opposition. Even if he wins Bennelong, he won’t even attend the first sitting of parliament.
Yes ruawake, those ads make me really angry. Howard has just put money into the AFP pre calling the election, and is running his agenda (nat sec, internet security…) through govt organisations. Sickening abuse of the caretaker protocols. Ive put down the baseball bat, and have picked up the electoral rifle. Though I will not be voting for the shooters party!
Ricky, SportingBet, you have to start an account with $30.00
cheers,
Alan H
David Charles @ 476
what a ridiculous post.
will was airing his feelings, and they are very widespread.
Howard and anybody still supporting him has to wear his ugly baggage as well as his good baggage.
John Howard has been a divisive and ugly leader.
Between both sides of politics i would say the vast majority disagree with his ugly,divisive, uncaring policies.
and that includes a lot of Libs who will still vote for the Party.
TofK re AFP – there’s a building on Anzac Parade in Canberra which had been vacant for many years – i think it was last year that refurbishment commenced to house the greatly expanded AFP.
I had an AFP guy in the taxi last week and, as we passed that building he commented that, because the AFP has increased from 2,500 to over 6,000 since 2001, that building was now not big enough. Anybodies guess what money was wasted.
Newspoll prediction – let’s go way out there – 58-42.
Primaries: 50-39
Hope so. Lateline should be fun if that comes true. Maybe Howard will get axed tomorrow under cover of the horses …
Programme for me. It must be the lattes. Can’t believe Howard would be one too. Surely that’s an ay-leet spelling and should be mocked and marginalised at all costs.
Ratsak – remember Howard loves the old country and all its ways. Program is after all an Americanism, and although he also loves GWB he is still probably hoping QE2 makes him Lord Warden of the Cinque Ports, too … Hyacinth would love it!
Newspoll will probably be better than Galaxy, but not THAT much better. As it was taken on the same weekend as Galaxy, it’s likely to be 56-44 or 55-45.
With regard to the Galaxy, and the interest rate question, when they ask “which of the following is MAINLY to blame?” I believe that many people would blame the govt to some extent, but, given 4 options, they have to decide which they blame most. This obviously produces a low “blame Howard” number.
Why do they give options? Why don’t they just ask the question, and see what the persons first response is?
As soon as you give options, it makes people think it is one thing or the other.
Ratsak
“The sailors of the Cinque Ports were granted “special privelages” by the Crown … ” “These “special privelages” [sic] entitled the men who fought to basically do what they wanted – they did not pay tax, and were (legally) entitled to take possession of any flotsam or plunder any captured enemy vessel.”
Martin Grieve, 8 July 2006
Sound like anyone you know ??
Channel 10 news has just shown Kevin Rudd doing an interview on Chinese National Television in Mandarin.
Did anyone notice that John Howard did not mention union bosses once during his interview with Barry Cassidy on Insiders or have I begun to switch off that phrase?
CL, I strongly suspect that Citizen Howard (as opposed to PM Howard) won’t be getting a Christmas card from Betty Windsor this year. I doubt she is a huge fan of his.
I’ve also wondered just what she really thought of Ming.
503 Greeensborough Growler Another good one Sherlock.
Mayoferal @ 488, ive been banned by that “shockjock” for daring to disagree with him over the Iraq war, i was quite polite and said as a war widow i had marched against our involvement, for my trouble i recieved a torrent of abuse and was told never to ring him again, if i remember rightly one of the more polite terms he called me was a terrorist sympathiser, i’m a rather quiet reserved person and never step into the public domain unless it’s important to me, ive spent far too much time in the public eye.
actually i got a tiny bit of revenge and satisfaction when he approached me much later to come on the program to talk about Von Einam and his high jinks in gaol, i must admit i gleefully told him to get stuffed, but i put it a teensy bit cruder than that lol.
536, Mum complains about this sometimes; she really hates being put in one box. At the moment, only Morgan does anything in qualitative polling, and he gives comments from electors on some of his polls. None of the other pollsters do anything qualitative, it’s either this box or that box that people have to jump into. The parties would do more qualitative stuff which we don’t see much of.
539 Tim, it may be that Lib internals are showing that talking about unions isn’t resonating at all. The recent ACN said that 60% weren’t concerned by unions and 51% thought that Rudd would be able to handle them. This was published in Saturday’s Age, the day after the main poll results.
Julie 522 – If Howard loses, I don’t think he will be in any mood for conventions!! Anything could happen!
Any predictions of the GG & Trash unlimited Corp. giving a resemblance of balanced coverage have been put to rest. Its ideology, not business considerations, that must be driving this agenda, Im sure they are losing many readers to fairfax over theyre shanahanagens.
Thought I read on this site yesterday that ESJ has started a blog.
Anyone got a link to it at all?
Crikey.com did hint that Howard might try and produce some big emotion grabbing wedge this week.
Howard may think his only hope now is something drastic. The AFP raising the profile of National Security at the begining of the week tweaks my interest.
Hopefully the Melbourne cup is nice and peaceful with no silly business.
C’mon, loosen up people!
Maybe we ought to cut Glen a little slack here.
His humanity towards Cornelia Rau is constrained only by the ugliness of his soul.
Why is everyone so gung ho re tomorrow newspoll?
@549
Nuff said.
Am I the only one who thinks that the “authorised by B Loughnane Liberal Party Canberra” voiceover man has a scary, paternalistic voice? It’s a turn-off.
Not sure Gerr, maybe its just the election being less than 3 weeks away. No reason really.
Gerr @550 – good question. Not like either party had a great week last week.
May be because this year, whenever there’s beena coalition bounce, it’s bounced back straight away.
Also, I think we were all pretty happy about Galaxy today.
3 weeks 3 weeks 3 weeks…I remember in 1983 waking up the day after and thinking that the birds should sound sweeter and the sun shinier….
For mine, this one is for PJK (the real one)….
Enough bluster, there’s still 3 weeks.
For those talking about the free $100 on sporting bet just remember you don’t get to claim the winnings. The way it works (as far as I know) is that you are allowed to re-invest the winnings from that $100. Say you bet $100 on Maxine @ $2.85 you get $185 credit WHEN she wins (sporting bet gets their free $100 back). With your $185 for could then bet it on a sure thing i.e Man Utd v. Derby and actually claim the winnings from that.
55-45 newspoll.
it’s getting monotonous hey….
3 weeks to go.
Gerr
I am just going on my gut feeling, each time Newspoll has showed “The Narrowing” it bounces back.
Morgan moved to ALP as did Galaxy. Newspoll tends to exagerate trends.
Gerr,
It is actually 456 hours and a few minutes. But who’s counting?
Re Shanahan, I’m still really pissed with the way be manipulated the Newspoll figures on Saturday. Showing the predicted minus MOE in Lib favour as best case and pretending that the predicted result was the Libs worst case was truly disgraceful. By not including analysis of the predicted plus MOE he totally misrepresented the poll. Of course, his blog did not post my blog telling him this. What else can be done? Media Watch? Complaint to the Press Council with the findings sent on to Media Watch?
Geez – with the polls consistently showing around 55/45 all year, this blog generates a frenzy of activity with any minor fluctuation up or down. I’d hate to think about PB bandwidth problems if published polls had been running at 50/50!!
@560 Dio
We can use this forum to lampoon him until he starts to cry…or goes on the biggest loser – and wins – but not for the usual reasons….and cause he didled with the MOE of the televotes. And actually cause he fits the job description to a t.
If Shanahan did not exist, Murdoch would have to invent him.
Diogenes @ 560:
I think they sell voodoo dolls of him now, so popular has he become.
Hopefully from here on we have no national disaster ‘events’ aka Tampa or more attempted Haneefs. Howard has taken Australian politics low enough – I hope he doesn’t take it any lower.
Nexus 6
i just re-read the conditions at sportingbet – once maxine wins there appears to be NO need to bet again before withdrawal of your winnings
@546 Kina
“Howard has taken Australian politics low enough – I hope he doesn’t take it any lower.”
Why does a little voice inside me say ‘you aint seen nothin yet’?
Of course they’re going to try something shocking.
Hey, u all probably know but the betting market narrowed somewhat furthur today to 1.32 to 3.35. Although Newspoll should be good, dont be too shocked if it moves to the govt
565. Here’s the sportingbet condition:
Prior to any withdrawal, both the deposit and any bonus funds accrued via Free Bets must be turned over at least once (1x).
The comments action is now moving elsewhere – all is explained here.
Check out the spoof new Liberal Party Ad at ‘Road to surfdom’. Very funny.
Rather disappointed that Rudd’s homeless announcement didn’t get much publicity on Channel 9 at 6.00pm, nor 10 at 5.00pm from memory
“Community Services Minister Mal Brough has condemned Labor’s new pledge to tackle homelessness, saying it would fail to make a dent in addressing the problem.”
What’s your answer Mal? Everyone lives with a social worker?
ruawake @ 509, i suspect a newspoll “widening” will be shannered as a ‘negative narrowing’
nexus yes – the free bet turnover is the maxine bet
Judy wrote:
I assume you mean the one now driving a gopher after a drink drive conviction. He wasn’t the one, though it sounds like he could have been.
Hmmm. Isn’t it interesting how the strongest advocates of war are those who’ve avoided being in one. I don’t remember seeing him in Vietnam. Or JWH, for that matter though he may have the excuse of his deafness.
Me too, until pushed too far. Which is why the one I crossed paths with is no longer in the media. Even ‘faux’ citizens can have powerful friends!
I should add that I was polite during the exchange because I had assumed the wider implications of creating two classes of citizens hadn’t been thought through. It wasn’t until the “So what” response that I realised I was dealing with xenophobia. I got kicked off before I could say more.
First ever Melvourne Cup parade without horses thanks to rattus stuffy upius.
Will be first ever major sporting event that said Rattus has deliberatley stayed away from, what happened to man of steel, frightened by the reaction he might get from the crowd.
Only rabbitts in this campaign are the scared liitle liberal bunnies ducking in and out of burrows as they avoid the media amd anything with the word liberal on it.
William – that Crikey thing is a bit weird … I’m sure you know your own business well but …
Predictions on Shanahan Newspoll Headings:
Howard makes spectacular comeback, now only 10 points behind Labor
Interest Rate fears fail to dent Coalition vote
Labor Leader at highest disapproval in 7 months
Howard surges on Preferred PM
Labor lead flatlines on interest rate fears
The Narrowing continues(Now only 10% gap)
Rate Rise not a worry for voters, Howards approval unchanged
Coalition closes in on Labor, up 1%
otiose, just sayin’ because the bloke I work with signed up during the World Cup and won from the bonus but couldn’t withdraw it – he had to re-invest it. From that I’d assume the bonus is what you accrue when Maxine wins, not the hundred you get for free – so the bonus is the $185 “profit”.
I could well be wrong but going in his experience I suspect not.
Whack your winnings from Maxine on the CFMEU Canberra Raiders to win the NRL Premiership.
nexus6
condition 6 from sportingbet
“Prior to any withdrawal, both the deposit and any bonus funds accrued via Free Bets must be turned over at least once (1x).”
this isn’t blinding obvious but my son who works at a sports betting site assures me that the maxine win clears the funds for withdrawal
Otiose – I’m glad you said that. I’m really looking forward to free money … I’m not going to win anything by betting my $30 on the ALP to form government (well, @$1.33 I’ll win about $10) but the $260 for Max is what I’m really hanging out for!
OK…..though I hope I don’t win mine (I put the $100 on the coalition @ $3.30 to soften the blow of a loss). My $30 signup went on Maxine.
Maxine wins, coalition loses = very happy, slightly richer
Maxin loses, coalition loses = still very happy
Maxine wins, coalition loses = a little sad, a good deal richer
Maxine loses, coalition wins = it could be worse. Australia’s screwed but I’m better off – I’ll feel just like a good little Lib.
Hell, I loved this little bit in this article from Forbes.
{As the six-week campaign passes the half-way mark, doubts about Howard’s personal honesty have arisen in his own marginal Sydney seat of Bennelong, with a poll released Monday showing he has been unable to shed his ‘lying rodent’ nickname.
A poll of 76 Bennelong voters by The Australian newspaper found that many had qualms about Howard’s truthfulness after his 11 years in the top job.
‘Several respondents referred to Mr. Howard as a lying rodent,’ the paper said, in reference to the nickname reportedly given to the prime minister by one of his senators in 2001.}
http://www.forbes.com/markets/feeds/afx/2007/11/04/afx4298259.html
Any inside word on whether newspoll will get a leak at 7:30?
My prediciton is the election is finely balanced. Because for some dopey reason newspoll gets the most attention in the media (despite it’s bizarre movements), if the poll coumes out 54% it may just kill off the Libs. It would mean only 2 Tuesday newspolls to go, and it’s getting damn close to time running out.
Newspolls are rarely leaked at 7.30….god im looking forward to that and lateline tonite.
What’s with all the ‘looking down your noses’ at us social workers going on earlier here? I doubt very much that those doing it, could hack what myself and my colleagues in mental health do, day in , day out. You try being on call 24/7, responding professionally, humanely and as helpfully as possible to the sad, the mad and the bad.
Onya, Mayo, good for you.
Newspoll- 58 The Obliterators, 42 The Losers.
Think the Galaxy result pretty much what I expected.
NBN in Newcastle is awash with Bob Baldwin ads:
A bevy of local “identities” are trotted out to support Bob.
The thrust is he’s a “good bloke” and he works “locally”. the pitch is “re-elect Bob”.
There is zero, repeat zero, (including in the acknowledgements at the end) mention of the Liberal party.
Rudd’s policy on reducing homelessness got a gurnsey on the ABC news. Please note, Glen, people with mental health problems vote. Their families and connections vote.
I think if newspoll is ever going to be 53-47 it’ll be tonight.
The polling would have started on Friday night -so the Garrett thing may hav had some resonance.
barney
Patterson is in the bag, don’t worry.
what’s with the new thread? william’s going to crikey????
William must have his reasons – be fair. But it would be sad if PB and PC end up hosted by big business.
But hay these guys have got to make a quid – maybe Bill Bowe could replace Shanahananan at the Oz.
7:30 had nothing new – just another mention of Galaxy.
And please more sightings of Vale on a skateboard. That must be worth 1000 under 21 years votes for the ALP every time.
53/47 for Newspoll to bring Howard within an angstrom of victory
Well I don’t know about anyone else but I’ve already exhausted my free ticket on crikey in a 6 month period – there you go – Thanks William anyway for the most informative blog I’ve ever read – Byeeeee
Nostrils
Labor can win the election with 49.7% of the TPP vote.
cb : Just enter your name and email to make a comment as usual on the new site, sign-up doesn’t seem to be required. Failing that set up a new email (Hotmail or the like) so you can register.
CB, that might not be an issue, as you can see here. If it is, I’ll inquire to see if something can be done about it.
My only concern about the crikey blog will be the “moderation”. Any idea how long it will take for a post to come up?
Actually scratch my comment @ 599, although the bit about creating a new email address stands.
Grog, no time at all – comments go live immediately. Unfortunately, you are given a contrary impression when you post a comment, another on the long list of things that will need to be addressed.
Excellent (I actually donated some money yesterday on paypal – but I’ll call it money spent for services already rendered)
One other problem with the Crikey blog is that anyone has has a previous trial or former subscription (me), are not able to register in order to participate on the blog.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/files/newspoll-5nov.pdf
This is on the Oz website – is this the new poll!?!? 53-47
The real figure is around 55/45 so the Newspoll will be one point either side or dead b,
I see others have already raised this issue. I did try to register but it failed, so I guess the only way around it is to get a new email address. Or is it possible to switch off registration?
Comicstriphero, that is the marginal seats poll which they ran on Saturday.
William,
DO not know if someone has already commented on this or not, so apologies if so.
I registered there late this afternoon and only got a chance for about a 5 minute look see before I needed to turn the computer over the kids for their turn [time share arrangements in this house
].
My main complaint is that the comments read bottom up, forcing you to go all the way to the bottom and scan up; complete and utter opposite from here. Can that be fixed to read top/bottom the way that we are all used to?
Did you notice that the Herald Sun reported the coalitions primary drop of 1% as unchanged and the 2% gap increase in 2 party preferred as unchanged also?
ruawake,
i wasn’t worried. i was reporting not panicing.
One of the many schadenfreude moments i look forward to on the 24th is to see Bib Bob lose.
William,
Ok then. Just that it had ‘5 Nov’ in the file title.
Getting edgy, me.
ok I sent the same message 4 times as I refreshed the page looking to update it – not realising that it must have updated. Interesting refreshing the page reposts the data.
I know better now. ;]
comicstriphero, don’t do that to me!
And, and , and Crikey, they ate Glen.
GG, Glen disappeared up his own orifice, as is perfectly fitting.
Thank you for your reply (at 600) William.
I have only the upmost respect for you and what you do and that’s why I am concerned that your post is going to Crikey – Crikey is not free to air – lots of bloggers will lbe blocked and thats the shame of it.
Nonetheless, good luck and I appreciate the amazing work that you’ve done.
CB, if by “not free to air” you mean that every post will be moderated, that is not the case. Provided this issue with one trial a year can be sorted, I don’t see any reason why things can’t continue much as they have here.
Just about there – all that it requires is to be as free functioning as this one which I gather is already being dealt with. The word limit and the submiting/refreshing page trap a few have discovered.
It is all fine by me.
Completely agree about the fantastic work William. Im amazed you could undertake this with the other demands on your time (Ive also done a PhD) and the ever present threat of legal action. BTW, has a blogger or blogsite ever been successfully sued in Australia?
William I’m not talking about censorship, I’m talking about getting online with Crikey – that’s all
Getting online is a hassle in itself and if you”ve already had a free trial at Crikey you can’t get on again unless you want to fiddle the books (email acc)
William I think your postings are the best blogs I’ve read – don’t let them be inaccessible
Mayoferal, thankyou for the reply, yes the person you mentioned is the one i clashed with, i too have good friends in state parliament and the media who would have been only too pleased to sort things out for me and demand an apology– but what the heck, i didnt want one from him, it would have been an insult, besides his big mouth got him into some legal trouble not long afterwards, i believe he has been told not to drink on air nowadays.
he is very vocal in his support for Howard along with his blue rinse set of rusted on listeners and rubbishes anyone who has a diferent opinion, i never bother to turn my radio on until midnight any more, i love this site and i cant thank William enough for making it possible, i blog very little {i havnt much confidence unless i’m fired up} but i read every entry here, along with Crickey it’s my favourite destination.
Michael OConnell the commissioner for victims rights and Mike Rann wrote to Howard early this year about the abuse, by sections of the media, of the law that you cant sue on the behalf of a dead person, they never even recieved a reply, i’m hoping that Rudd has a more humanitarian side and victims Australia wide will be treated better, i was one of the people who set up the first victim support service in the world here in Adelaide, i was honoured when Chris Summner took a paper i wrote to a UN seminar on victimology some years ago, i think it was my proudest moment.
# 596 – Nostro, your angstrom just got run over by your karma.
two things
howard claims he cant control prices
ever heard of the Prices Justification Tribunal -quaint body that MADE business justify its price increases (maybe thats why they called it that) scrapped by The Rodentcy
Whatever happened to the “intervention”
basically we are the stage where we allow the Libs to reinstall apartheid in the top end-must be all those nuclear waste dumps being commissioned in the NT
In their desire to be a MSM staple with their own brand of me-tooism, Crikey are limiting comment to those rich enough to splurge on a Crikey subscription or those tech-savvy enough to get around the free subscription thing. Either way, they have limited the openess of this blog and skewing the content. Possum Comitatus continuned to blog to both Crikey and his own site. William, perhaps that is the way to go. If the rabble at the gate of the citadel sign up for two free weeks @ Crikey, they will be comfortably out of the way for the last week of the election.
I guess it is an interesting experiment as it will reveal how the blogosphere functions and thrives.
William, much as it might pain you, there is such a thing as too much change, and as others have indicated, we’d rather support you to continue this site. And put our money where our moutn is.
Sorry, mouth. I’ve no idea where our moutn is. Perhaps someone in the LNP knows. God knows, only they know how to rule, run the economy (badly), blah, blah, blah.
agree with #629,Harry.
The Crikey site is too confusing!!!!!!!!!
#560 Diogenes
I’m a bit late picking up these posts with work commitments … so excuse me if this has already been answered. I heard Antony Green and Galaxy’s Peter Briggs on The World Today on the car radio. Antony very politely took up your concern. He said nobody, at least nobody he knew, tried to interpret polls using worst-case scenarios maximised through Margin of Error. On Antony’s own reading of the marginal seats mentioned, related to the known swings, Labor would win 88 seats in the election. Briggs was also asked for comment. He said he could only agree with Antony’s interpretation.
Briggs also said he believed Howard was gone, even though the polling lead to McKew was not huge. He based that on the fact that three polls had now been held over a large space of time, and all had come up with identical results.
sooo… William, in an hour will there be a Newspoll thread here as well as over at CrikeyBludger? I’ve got both open with those little Explorer tabs… but it’s weirdness…
Might I suggest a bifurcating and suppurating in the LNP from here on out? Diogenes, despite you looking down your nose at social workers, do you have a comment?
Crispy, the action will be entirely here.
Newspoll just released – Primary Vote Coalition 42% (unchanged) ALP 47% (down 1%). 2PP Coalition 47% (up 1%) ALP 53% (down 1%).
Preferred PM – Howard 43% (up 2%) Rudd 47% (down 1%)
Ripper, William. Just give us a heads up when you need some cash. Very much appreciate your work.
Hey Judy
Here’s another bit of West Adelaide trivia for you going way back to 1953 at the Football Carnival held at Adelaide then. (My good old Dad took my brothers and self along to three of the games. And I had an amazing memory for trivia then, now alas gone.)
Among the Football Budget souvenirs I can remember was a photo of 7 members of the famous West Adelaide 1947 premiership team participating at the Carnival. But only 3 (Brian Faeshe, Colin Brown and Jack Lynch) were current West Adelaide players. What about the others?
Well in South Australian uniforms were Fos Williams (by then Port Adelaide) and Don Taylor (by then Glenelg).
In the West Australian uniform was Reg Zeuner.
In the Victorian uniform was the great Bernie Smith, by then with Geelong, and the 1951 Brownlow Medallist.
I bet you didn’t know that, but some of your family would have.
632 Don Wigan
Must say I’m very pleased to hear Antony exposed shameahans shenanigans. I’ve listened to Antony for many years and must say I still don’t know if he leans left or right, nor do I care. Antony is a very respected and publicly unbiased analyst unlike shameahan who has no credibility or respect whatever.
Don, your news on Briggs, a big supporter of the PM, believing Howard is gone has made my night.
Trevor, #636,
Is this worrying?
I have a nagging feeling that the libs will pull something out of the bag.
My wife is confident of a ALP victory, but Iam not so sure. Call me cynical if you will.
Bloody Agenda. A whole bunch of Howard huggers on there gushing over him. amazing. At least Imre had it right. He still believes Howard is gone.
Whilst I’m not overly confident I’m sure that if the ALP primary vote stays where it is, I can’t see how the ALP can possibly lose. The closer the polls are now I reckon the more likely people will gravitate towards ALP closer to election date to ensure that Howard is not returned.
Trevor this poll shows no real movement. One percent here and there in polling is not significant. Really nothing has changed from the last newspoll.
But aren’t we ASSUMING that the primaries will not change? I must admit , that I have no great faith in the average voter, they are far too blase to look at the real issues, and only interested as to what will come into their hip pocket
Fancy even talking about the narrowing with a poll like this. Imre had it right when said that these polls have done this over the year. It wouldn’t surprise to see Labor’s vote go up.
Nothing in this poll Will is suggesting any change in primary vote.
Will, I understand how you feel but if we get Howard returned again, I’ll be very disappointed for this country and the word “fair” can be removed from all dictionaries. It will show how we have become a greedy society with no compassion for our fellow countrymen.
I have faith that enough will do what is required on 24/11/2007.
I think I can sleep better then?
Don i knew Fos very well, Colin Brown was my hero but best of all as a real littley i adored Clarry “bang bang” Cannon, Jimmy Wright was special too, they were heady innocent days, one of my daughters goes to the clubrooms every saturday night, she wouldnt miss it.
William if you need a donation just yell, theres enough of us here to keep you going, after all this is our home from home.
Labor’s advertising has just begun and the interest rate hike looks like taking place. This poll is still a shocker for the Libs at this stage of the campaign.
i don’t want Howard returned either, but he always seems to manage a catastrophe of some sort to get the voters back on his side. He is just sleazy and sneaky enough to “conjure” another scare for the voters.
Like many posters here, I long to see the end of the most immoral, corrupt government this country has ever seen, but I just can’t help but feel that he has form on his side……like trying to turn the inevitable interest rate hike to his advantage…the “interest rate rise we have to have”.
I am so scared for this country, I just want to go to sleep until it is all over.
Lateline tonight..the coalition and the PM clawing back some ground…….not much, but clawing it back.
Howard and co the only ones able to steer Australia through these troubled times?
Give me a break!!!!!!!!!!!
“now is not the time to replace an experienced government with an inexperienced one”
“these thing are outside the control of the government”
I feel SO sick!!!!!!!!!!!
oh dear, i keep repeating “i will not panic, i will not panic” — surely we cant lose out sooo close to the home post! how on earth can Rudd look so relaxed and easy about it all???? Judy mutters as she stomps off to make a little wax doll of Howard and stick pins in it.
lateline 53-47 Labors stuffed with 3 long weeks to go.
What are you people on? There is statistically no change. The Libs primary vote hasn’t moved.
Gerr are you aware that such a result would still be an easy win to Labor?
Thanks Gary! Iam going to bed somewhat calmed down, and after listening to Anthony Green on lateline, I feel a bit better as well.
By the way, does EVERYBODY go to bed at this time of night?
It’s mighty quiet here tonight Will. I think it may have to do with the changes being made here.
But there is no action on Crikey, either. Unless some more people get on here somewhat quick smart, I am going to join my wife in bed!!!!!!!!!!!!!
THAT’S IT!!!!!!!!!! I AM GOING!
GOODNIGHT ALL.
HarryH (530) My post addressed an insidious tendency of some posters to offensively categorise sections of the voting population as ‘greedy’ or ‘lacking compassion’. To observe that tendency is, itself, divisive, and self indulgent is not controversial.