Simon Jackman at The Bullring has done as I did in an idle moment a few weeks ago, deriving various measures of spread from an election’s worth of swing results at national and state level. If Jackman’s interpretation is correct, a state-level poll is little better than a national one as a pointer to a given seat result:
We see that there is less variation in swing within states than there is overall. But not that much less. The measures of spead of the swings (range, standard deviations, the mean absolute deviation around the mean) for each state are still quite large relative to corresponding national figure … There is still an awful lot of variability in swings out there, and I’d be reluctant to start applying uniform swing models within states.
However, he does add “just one caveat to all of this”:
It could well be that when average swings are large (or dare I say massive), there is greater uniformity or even less uniformity than when average swings are relatively small. I haven’t looked at data from previous election to know the answer to that, but it be helpful to know the answer to that.
Which is easily done if you have a spreadsheet full of swing figures, like I do. These three tables replicate Jackman’s for the 1996, 1998 and 2001 elections, two of which saw heavy traffic from one party to the other.
| 2001 | Nat’l | NSW | Vic | Qld | SA | WA |
| Mean | 1.9 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 0.2 | 1.2 |
| SD | 2.4 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 1.4 |
| MAD | 1.8 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 1.0 |
| Minimum | -5.5 | -4.0 | -5.5 | -3.3 | -2.7 | -2.4 |
| Maximum | 10.1 | 10.1 | 4.7 | 7.9 | 3.3 | 3.3 |
| Range | 15.6 | 14.1 | 10.2 | 11.2 | 6.0 | 5.7 |
| N | 142 | 45 | 37 | 25 | 11 | 15 |
| 1998 | Nat’l | NSW | Vic | Qld | SA | WA |
| Mean | -4.8 | -4.5 | -3.2 | -7.1 | -4.0 | -6.2 |
| SD | 2.9 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 3.2 | 2.8 | 2.7 |
| MAD | 2.3 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 1.7 |
| Minimum | -15.3 | -10.2 | -9.8 | -15.3 | -9.0 | -11.1 |
| Maximum | 0.3 | -0.3 | 0.3 | -0.5 | -0.2 | 0.0 |
| Range | 15.6 | 9.9 | 10.1 | 14.8 | 8.8 | 11.1 |
| N | 139 | 48 | 35 | 25 | 11 | 12 |
| 1996 | Nat’l | NSW | Vic | Qld | SA | WA |
| Mean | 5.2 | 7.0 | 1.7 | 8.3 | 4.5 | 2.2 |
| SD | 3.3 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 1.4 |
| MAD | 2.7 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1.2 |
| Minimum | 0.1 | 2.3 | 0.1 | 4.4 | 2.2 | 0.2 |
| Maximum | 14.0 | 12.0 | 4.9 | 14.0 | 6.5 | 3.9 |
| Range | 13.9 | 9.7 | 4.8 | 9.6 | 4.3 | 3.7 |
| N | 138 | 48 | 34 | 25 | 12 | 11 |
And what do you know. The last time there was a big swing and a change of government, the gap between measures of spread at state and national level was significantly higher than in 2004. However, this was not true of the 1998 election, which saw a substantial swing to Labor but no change of government. That might be due to the effect of One Nation in polarising the cities and the regions, most evidently in Queensland. The even messier picture from 2001 provides support for Jackman’s suggestion that a relative lack of state-level uniformity might be a phenomenon of status quo elections.
UPDATE: Geoff Lambert, who knows way more about these things than I do, offers a well-made point about the leptokurticity (here, use my hankie) of swing distributions in comments.
587 Comments
Whatever suits, William.
Umm.. that was fun. How many elections (sets of data) have we got to play with?
Hey.. whats the low down on Higgins now?
Here’s something tangentially relevant..
http://www.chaser.com.au/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=1427&Itemid=26
Nicely done William. I think I have the data lying around here somewhere, but enuf was enuf for that Bullring post. There is an important point here: if the swing is on, then maybe its on, and those state level aggregations have a little more predictive efficacy.
In 1996 NSW and Qld are the wildcards, so to speak, with remarkable within-state uniformity in Vic, SA and WA. Curious…
An analysis of electorate swings (1972-2004, N= about 1,800) produces a near normal distribution, but slightly “leptokurtic”, indicating that swings tend to cluster rather too closely about the mean, which is 0.5%. The standard deviation of the swing is 4.7% overall, but, when analysed on a single-election basis can be shown to be dependant upon the Australia-wide swing, rising with the latter from about 2.6% where there is no nett swing, to 5.3% where the swing is 7.5% (the highest national swing ever seen in the 1972-2004 period).
The pendulum, that popular weapon of the psephologist is a very useful predictive device at election time. It is admitted by its proponents that swings vary from electorate to electorate but they argue that any “errors” arising from this tend to cancel out, meaning that the overall prediction is still likely to be “nearly right”. Actually, the pendulum has proven to be a rather poor predictor of nett seat change when the swing and potential seat change is small (less than 10 seats). In general, the performance in both a relative and an absolute sense increases rapidly above a 10 seat change. Knowing the statistics for means and standard deviations of swings, one can conduct a simulation to model the pendulum’s performance. For the current election with a swing of (say) 7%, where the expected seat change is about 30, repeated simulations show that the nett seat changes could be 5 above or below this in 95% of such elections.
Sorry
Completely irrelevant to this conversation but I’m trying to get my hits up and I think most of the posters on this site will enjoy this one:
http://au.youtube.com/watch?v=3imua9t91Bs
6 LOL
Whens the next poll out?
Whens this interest rate thing happening?
According to RBA Website
7 November 2007
Outcome of Board Meeting (9.30 am)
12 November 2007
Statement on Monetary Policy (11.30 am) – hopefully another hit on the govt next week
You can even sign up for an email service for their latest news – oooh!
http://www.rba.gov.au/
for those who are interested
8 so we (you) find out at 0930? (2230 previous night for me?)
Hi Ave it 07 – yes I think its a pretty immediate thing. The markets need to know when its going to be announced so they can prepare.
TY – it’ll shake you if the rates go down!!!!!!
I think the odds of the rates going down are as good as getting a bet on the Melbourne cup now. Even staying the same is a very rank outsider.
Ave it, don’t unneedlessly give your cred a hit. It’s pennies to a pound to go up, and I can bet you the entire Atlantic Ocean it won’t go down.
14 LOL – didnt realise i had any cred!
Yeah I dont get it, anyway, Albrechtsen in the Australian today wirtes that Gillard is second rate. I wrote in her column and reproduce it here as she wont publish it
‘Second rate? What does that make you Janet?’
Airheadsen is a really nasty piece of I dont know what. Gillard will be PM one day and Airheadsen will always be a third world tabloid journo.
I thank you.
15 – I’m an optimist! Even tories in the mother country staying up late to catch news of the whumping of their brethren down under have cred in my eyes.
17: looking good for the Coalition! Super Howard.
Channel Nine news this morning (ie 8:00 am in Victoria) showing a stat from the Australian’s newspoll showing a 10 point change in the response to “who does the economy better” > Kevin Rein is now down 5% to 32% on that question.
I presume this was part of the last round of Newspoll on Monday, but I haven’t seen it anywhere.
Has anyone seen it?
Did anyone listen to Radio National today after 6.30am? 2 articles one on Rudd and the other on Howard. A more unbalanced couple of reports would be hard to find. Essentially Rudd is only tolerated in Qld and basically ate babies when he worked for Goss vs a PM who is laughing merrily and seems far from concerned about a possible loss.
That for me is the end of RN Breakfast and Fran Kelly. I will now rely on blogs for getting the news links.
Mr Squiggle,
Try http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22716494-601,00.html
In my view, asking voters ‘who can best manage the economy’ is a useless polling question because the Opposition have never had a go! How can a voter assess the likely performance of an alternative government in ANY area of policy? When asked about the economy, voters will always lean towards the government because they have seen the evidence.
20
I agree. Kelly & Triolli, both lightweight no-nothings. I doubt Kelly has much editorial input though. Don’t know about Triolli – only get her on Friday Lateline. Used to be my ‘must see’ edition but since Virginia it’s not worth a look.
As Sol Lebovic has had a column in the Oz today doing a Bludger Spread Analysis on a state basis, here are the actual figures for the 1972-2004 elections for the mean swing and the standard deviation of it.
STATE SWING STD DEV
ACT -0.6% 4.8%
NSW -0.8% 4.8%
NTE 0.1% 2.9%
QLD -1.4% 4.4%
SAU -1.0% 3.7%
TAS -0.4% 5.4%
VIC 0.4% 4.5%
WAU -0.7% 5.7%
You can’t read anything into the means, but there are significant differences in the SD’s- Western Australia is more volatile than Victoria, for instance.
These economy polls have been fairly bad for Labor for ages and yet they are well ahead in the “who would you vote for” polls.
Looks like the ABC has been successfully policised to the way the government would like.
Just something for our conservative friends to munch on from that bastion of conservatism Sol Lebovic – “If present polling levels hold through to the election though, not much analysis of state differences will matter with Labor romping in.”
Shanahan trots this drivel out every few months. I wrote this piece back in July dealing with this issue and since then, nothing has changed.
http://forums.ozelection2007.info/viewtopic.php?id=148
The ABC: useless currently! You’re correct, Fran Kelly/Viriginia Trioli/Chris Ullmann are all running a very anti-Rudd line, presumably on the instruction of the ABC board. Radio is worse than TV. Kerry O’Brien obviously hates Howard, and Jim Middleton’s TV report last night was a favourable one for Labor.
[20] – Yeah RN has been quite strange during this campaign. They seem to have a journalist on the road with “Team Howard”, but none with Rudd. What is that about?
Fran seems to dislike Rudd in quite a personal way – she can be critical of Howard’s policies, but her approach to Rudd is quite personal.
Weird.
“The ABC: useless currently! You’re correct, Fran Kelly/Viriginia Trioli/Chris Ullmann are all running a very anti-Rudd line, presumably on the instruction of the ABC board. Radio is worse than TV. Kerry O’Brien obviously hates Howard, and Jim Middleton’s TV report last night was a favourable one for Labor.”
Heard Uhlman interview Andrew RObb this morning on interest rates and the economy, and he was pretty hard on him.
Even got to the point where he said “What is the coalition message? You’re standing behind posters saying go for growth, yet you’re now saying everyone should be scared of inflation. What are you trying to tell the Australian people?”
Was pretty good actually.
PS: Have tried to do a quote with the 1st para. If it doesn’t work, can someone enlighten me on it please?
“Fran seems to dislike Rudd in quite a personal way”
Maybe it’s because she’s gay and Rudd has shown himself to be no friend of gays.
Thanks to Howard’s board appointments ABC is slowly turning into a refuge for second rate right wing journos. Give PM another 3 years and all the voices of reason and balance at ABC will be replaced by opinion writers from tabloids!
“An online survey conducted for The Australian has found that less than 20 per cent of respondents would blame Mr Howard if rates go up. A Galaxy poll in Monday’s Daily Telegraph found that only 12 per cent of voters would blame the PM – and that figure only rose to 20 per cent among Labor voters.”
I participated in that poll and I give it little credibility. The way the questions were couched was absolutely jaw dropping. Blatant push polling.
If you were at all fair minded it was going to come out in the Coalition’s favour.
#31 Burgey: This link you explain for you .
http://www.w3schools.com/tags/tag_blockquote.asp
Not to mention the fact they are asking the wrong question. I don’t particularly blame the Coalition for recent interest rate rises, but neither do I think they deserved credit in 2004 for keeping rates low. The issue is one of dishonesty and trying to have it both ways.
You can’t take the credit when things are going well and then distance yourself from responsibility when they go bad. And that’s the point Rudd has to hammer.
Ross Gittins in the SMH bells the cat on the way interest rates and the economy works:
http://www.smh.com.au/news/opinion/the-treasurer-is-mainly-pretence/2007/11/06/1194329223119.html
Hope that works.
Thanks mate.
The way the polls are even a mere extra 2% blaming Howard and swinging behind Rudd will result in a massive landslide.
Glad to help .!
up by .25%
rates up.
32
Spiros Says:
November 7th, 2007 at 9:15 am
“Fran seems to dislike Rudd in quite a personal way”
Maybe it’s because she’s gay and Rudd has shown himself to be no friend of gays.
And Howard is??
RIP John Howard?
Shows good Coalition prudential government!
http://www.rba.gov.au/MediaReleases/2007/mr_07_20.html
bye rat
Huzzah. Take that Howard.
Pity he won’t be around to cop the next couple of rises that are predicted.
25bp
Just listening to 3AW. You’d think by those calling in that this rate rise will have no impact whatsoever. I don’t believe it personally.
This wouldnt happen during a UK election campaign!
Now for Howard to try and turn his “Going for Growth” into “Racing for Recession” unless you vote Liberal…
They didn’t think their slogan through too well did they? Unless they meant Growth of Interest Rates…?
45 Ave it 07 – Howard says he doesn’t control interest rates though.
Its amazing how people change their views over time. Does anyone have any juicy quotes of what Howard said about the goverrnments role in creating low interest rates in the past? For that matter, did PM’s press secretary Denis Shanahan say the opposite thing last election?
Labor’s response to what Howard says should be simple: Were you lying last time (interest rates were your doing) or are you lying this time (interest rates are not your doing)?
There is a big difference betwee the threat of a rate rise and the event itself followed by mortgage rates rising over the next week or so. It may not swing voters over to Rudd but it takes the wind out of the coalition sails for a couple of weeks.
This is the payoff to the ALP for running a shadow campain that did not allow Howard the opportnity to go earlier.
How would your mortgage monthly repayments going up make you more inclined to vote for the Rodent/Smirky? I don’t quite understand that one.
Jon Faine on 774 Melbourne outing Costello saying in September “There won’t be a rate rise in November, take it from me.”
Game over for JWH
53 – all the old people with their savings will be loving it and voting Coalition!
You only need one or two people out of every hundred to be pissed off about this rate rise… the rest can ring in to radio stations and say it doesn’t bother them but it won’t make a lick of difference. An extra $100 a month is going to hurt some people a lot.
The ones who are ringing in to radio stations now are clearly not the ones affteced by interst rate rises. Those who are, are busy working two or three jobs.
Glad you think so !. I have a mortgage and this is 10 rate rises in a row. John Howard can get stuffed. !
Albert Ross:
Good link, but you missed the most telling point
“He was dishonest to claim much of the credit, reckless to make promises about something he didn’t control and misleading to claim that our choice of elected government would make a great difference to interest rates.”
If John Howard still ends up winning this election, its a further indictment on the political and economical savvy of Australians.
Even the Americans learned after voting for Dubya twice.
I did it!!!! I accurately predicted the title of Dennis Shanahans next bullshit “The Australian” lead story!!!
From the Galaxy Poll thread:
“LaborVoter Says:
November 5th, 2007 at 6:37 pm
Predictions on Shanahan Newspoll Headings:
….
Interest Rate fears fail to dent Coalition vote”
Todays Shaninigans article:
PM defies rates backlash
I was close, but unfortunately I was unable to word it in such a bullshit manner to match Shaninigans spin on events.
59 Ave it 07 – most of the oldies are voting Liberal anyway. No loss there.
The Libs are turning pathetic. Last week Howard and Costello were threatening the banks on the basis that the US sub-prime issue had no effect here. This morning Dolly Downer is on TV saying that the government is really worried about the threat to us from the US sub prime crisis. Really!
Interest rates are up!
Two questions:
1. How is this interest rate rise not a disaster of monumental proportions for Howard?
2. What is the best way to survive day #3 of giving up smoking cold turkey (after a 35/day habit)?
I realise (2.) is off topic but you guys are geniuses and I’d respect an answer from one of you rather than some smarmy Yank who’s trying to get money out of me. One of you must have been through this and have some tips?
Any high interest savings accounts going on over there???
Well, if Rudd gets in I’ll expect all conservative supporters to not lay blame on him for further interest rate rises. Am I expecting too much?
I think the lib metaphor is that we’re headed full tilt to the promised land, little moses Howard (like a bargain basement version of Charlton Heston) with the bit between his teeth driving us skillfully on, as a massive tsunami bears down on us from the rear.
Not sure how you capture that in a slogan – all or nothing, glory or death, going for growth – running from doom. Heaven or hell. The exclusive Brethren might be able to come up with a marketing concept as its up their alley.
The little guys lawyers tongue is gonna be working overtime to sell this one…Never mind, the Govt Gazette has got him off to a flying start this morning…
Of course for many Australians the important rate is the Credit Card rate. Watch out! Interesting to see Christmas sales.
Why doesn’t someone call the Libs on this bullshit.
The Libs blame the global economy as a reason to keep them in power (yet doesn’t acknowledge the global economy for our current growth), yet the ALP doesn’t refer to the global economy when interest rates were at highs under their reign.
Howard promised he could control interest rates when actually Governments have relatively little control. People believed him.
They now know he lied – but more importantly, this lie is costing people money.
Ergo, Howard loses votes.
Interest rates up? Good – this’ll mean the focus of the remainder of the campaign will be on the economy, and since poll after poll is showing that voters don’t blame the current Government for the rises, they can safely hammer home the danger in granting Krudd and his gang of idiots control of the economy.
Funny how just about all the media outlets are currently emphasising how little control the government has over interest rates. Why weren’t they doing that in 2004?
It doesn’t seem to matter what the rodent does, the media here have his back. Somewhere along the line the Australian press got so beholden to this government it managed to forget that it’s supposed to be free and fair.
62: Put it in context though. Before these 10 rate increases, there was the equivalent of 8 0.25% decreases.
75 – clearly correct. Super Howard.
Trust Coalition for sound economic management!
James J – And how much was the average purchase price of a house back then? About half the price it is now. People forget that each 0.25 rise hurts a lot more when you start from a higher base. Therefore each rise has a far more profound impact then it did in say 1999.
Bushfire Bill
Day 3 of quitting. Crawl into a cave. Drink lots of fruit juice. read a massive tome. I read Parting the Waters – a history of US civil rights movement. Speak to as few people as possible. Keep it up. If you backslide now, you’ll just have to go through the torture another time. Good move. Good luck.
Bushfire Bill have you tried Nicotine Replacement Therapy? Statistically the best quit option… and we do love statistics.
Misty #76:
Silly question Misty.
bushfire bill @ 68 – nicotine chewing gum or patches. they work.
Steven Kay
Allow me to assist you to re moving your head from your arse. The government doesn’t control or run the economy. If you believe this your mummy must still be tucking you in at night.
So rates are now as high as they were in 1996, when the Tories were elected. And the Tories can hardly take the credit for the rate falls in 1996. It was Keatings legacy that caused those.
Regarding Frank Kelly and Radio National I can’t fathom why Fran has been so anti Labor.
When she has her chat with Michelle Grattan, you can hear Grattan trying to restore some balance. The conversation goes something like this.
FRAN: Ban result for Labor in the latest Newspolls, with a narrowing of the gap which shows that the Coalition may be on track for a win.
GRATTAN: Yes there is a narrowing, however we have to say that it hasn’t been a significant shift as yet.
FRAN: We can also see that Howard is now seen as the best economic manager, and Labor lost lots of ground as the better manager of the environment. Considering that that is a strong Labor issue, this must be extremely worrying for Labor.
MICHELLE: It can be, we have to see that Howard has muddied the waters confusing issues here.
Fran=Dennis
If the interest rates are too low, all you get are house prices rising too high out of the reach of ordinary people. It also encourages excess borrowing particularly for short term consumer items eg TVs holidays etc. This is what has happened in UK. In UK we need a good 3% rate rise to control the housing market but the Bank of England has been unwilling to provide this!
If a rate rise didn’t matter to a lot of people, then why did the LNP think it important enough to base an entire election campaign around last time? And it was lower back then.
You tell me which is more likely:
http://possumcomitatus.wordpress.com/2007/11/07/you-tell-me-which-is-more-likely/
Steven @ 75 – I know where you’re coming from and thought this could possibly happen also. However, “poll after poll is showing that voters don’t blame the current Government for the rises” – of course they don’t blame the government. It’s a stupid question. It’s like asking “do you blame the government for the rain today?” The issue here, in my opinion, is that the government has flip flopped to buggery over the issue. First they are the party of choice for interest rates, then they have no control over them, then they say inflation is impossible to contain, then they welcome a rise – just all over the place. Just because voters don’t ‘blame’ the government for the rate rises doesn’t mean they will all of a sudden swing to them. I think the reverse also applies for Rudd.
Alan Kohler had an interesting bit on interest rates last night on the 7pm news. He charted interest rate levels in aust over the last 20 years against OECD levels. Averaging them out it showed that interest rates under Labor were exactly equivalent to levels under the Libs. When Keating had them at 17% they were something like 20% in the US. The fact that Labor didn’t argue these points at the last election is the reason why we still have to endure the spectacle of the Rodent running around perversely trying to capitalise on an interest rate increase.
87 [If the interest rates are too low, all you get are house prices rising too high]
No risk of interest rates getting too low under the current crop of Coalition economic wonderboys. This is the first of a quick three or four rises needed to correct their spending frenzy.
Jon Fain on 774 Melb ABC is about to have a phone in discussion on ‘which political commentators do you trust?’
This is off Tim Dunlop’s blog
Liberal MP Cameron Thompson; “What it does is underline the strong economic performance of this government and to that extent if you want to draw a political line under it, it’s a positive for the Government.”
listen to it here – http://media01.couriermail.com.au/multimedia/2007/11/071106-thompson/index.html?skin=courier
The recent poll indicating that not many voters would blame howard and the Libs for higher interest rates may have been reflective of the mood on that day. But when the voters start receiving the letters from their banks over the next couple of weeks advising of the the new, higher repayment required, that will really start to bite Howard. Just might be final nail, in the final week of the Howard government.
I have been highlighting, to my partner, F*n Kelly’s pro-liberal bias for months now. I can’t figure it out either. Some of the time its not even subtle. And listening to the biased report on RN this morning that dealt with perceptions of Kevin Rudd in QLD nearly made me choke on my wheaties. Where do they get these reporters? Time for a purge in the ABC.
………AND IT WON’T BE THEIR FAULT, BECAUSE OF OVERSEAS INFLUENCES.
Talk about passing the buck…….
No matter how the Ratking tries to spin this, its just plain bad news for him. It destroys his economic credibility. Lots of people in marginal seats have mortgages and theyre gonna be pissed off!
[86] LOL – that is so true
unless the banks bow to political pressure and don’t send out the letters until AFTER the election!
Sean 91 – I saw that Kohler item too. Labor were just too spooked by Keating’s acceptance in the electorate in Oct 2004 to mention the Keating econimic achievements. Pity though, if they had the guts to push it, the 2004 election outcome could have been very different.
If there was no interest rate rise today, would smirky and the rodent be taking the credit?? I think so!
Would all the tory media toadies praising the colossul genius of the Libs in avoiding an interest rate rise? I think so!
87 – that may well be so, but where were the economic wonder boys telling people to take care? They were too busy spending away and putting even more inflation into the economy.
Sean 91 – I saw that Kohler interest rates item too. Labor were just too spooked by Keating’s acceptance in the electorate in Oct 2004 to mention the Keating econimic achievements. Pity though, if they had the guts to push it, the 2004 election outcome could have been very different.
It’s not that rates have gone up, it’s the trust issue.
You can’t on the one hand promise to keep them low (30 year lows), then when they go up not take some responsibility for it. The fact is he said it, and now he has to wear the consequences.
[89] Good one Possum! You should send the link to Dennis at the Oz for a bit of perspective.
103 – its all about people taking responsibility for their own affairs!
Self responsibility….. self respect….. freedom….. Coalition!
Everybody focuses on mortgages but don’t forget interest rate increases will also hit howard’s small business constituency.
is Avit07 a liberal lacky?
“By the March quarter of next year, both headline and underlying measures of inflation are likely to be above 3 per cent.”
Reserve Bank
Looks like an axe is about to be taken to coalitions big spending agenda.
http://petermartin.blogspot.com/2007/11/so-youve-been-feeling-fairly.html
Given the state of the global economy this is a good election to lose, one could argue.
I’ve been reading various RBA statements past and present.
The RBA may well be in the news again on Monday (MPS release day), explaining why they are going to raise rates in Decemeber.
I know who to blame for the six rate increases since 2004, Howard and Costello, because they promised to keep them at record lows. As economic managers they have performed woefully and deserve to be ignored by the voters on election day. Some say that voters do not have baseball bats ready for Howard, but after this they certainly will.
Ha! I always thought that was the case, but you never see anyone pointing it out do you?
It’s just nuts that ALP hasn’t ever made an issue of it and said, look, they were high in the 80s everywhere in the world.
If political junkies like us haven’t seen these comparisons before, then what hope for the average joe?
B.B you should ask Aussie Bob, I believe he is going through the same withdrawal symptoms.
But seriously, I gave up a 28 year/1Pkt day habit, 1year and 2 weeks ago.
The only way to stop smoking is to stop putting them in your mouth. It’s not easy, but if you persist you will kick the habit.
Good Luck.
The bias in the ABC is across the board. I’ve heard people as non political as Jennifer Byrne and James O’loughlin spouting Howardesque objections/caveats etc to caller or guest opinions that are so heavy handed and uncalled for that its clear they’re working to a template and under strict instructions. Mark Scott the Howard governments ‘change agent’ has clearly instituted strong rules around ‘balanced’ commentary. The more career minded and weak willed at the ABC are clearly trying to ingratiate themselves with senior management. They’re the ones that tend to overcompensate and slip over to the other side (frank kelly and virginia triolli being two of the worst). I’ve heard strange comments out of the mouths of people who you would expect better from.
For instance – Jennifer Byrne interviewed the IR academic John Buchanan (the one who recently got slandered by Good Bloke Hockey) He made the perfectly uncontroversial observation that Australians were working record long hours (at the expense of leisure/family time etc). Byrne jumped in as though she had a gun to her head: ‘but thats a value judgement’ etc etc, as though value judgments smacked of poltiics, smacked of bias and she just couldn’t have it.
The objective is clearly to sterilise commentary to the point were it has no point. Opinions are only ok if you’re talking about the weather. She closed the interview like a good puppy with the inane comment that ‘I don’t know about you but I’m kinda proud that we work long hours – shows we’re going somewhere’ etc etc…This sort of rubbish comes up all the time if you listen to ABC regularly.
Now the ALP will be bringing out its advertising. They are geared up for this.
The last two weeks will be lies on interest rates – how can your trust John Howard’s word – and Peter Costello will make WorkChoices even more draconian to force wages down and make people even more fearful of losing their jobs and work conditions.
Imagine how bad WorkChoices would be in a downturn if they are already bad for battlers in a “booming” economy. We will see the ALP matching the Coalition’s fear campaign and they have plenty of ammunition to work with.
John Howard will attempt to spin like a tornado but will end up destroying his own party.
“If you think interest rates are bad now, imagine how much worse they will get if you re-elect John Howard. Remember we had 22% interest rates under him as Treasurer. Don’t risk re-electing the Howard government.”
“John Howard hid his WorkChoices plan from the Australian people at the last election. They are hiding another plan to make it even worse”.
101: Kind of glad they didnt. I dont really want to know how Prime Minister Mark Latham and Treasurer Simon Crean would have turned out.
Ave It 07. At 59 you said all the oldies will vote Libs cos the rates have gone up. Well that contradicts everything the bloody coalition has been saying about Labor. The Libs say that interest rates will always be higher under a Labor government, therefore, wouldnt the oldies be all voting labor if we are to take your 59 comment to be true. You are a tool and a typical UK Tory. Go Back to your crap country with crap weather why don’t you!!!
All these interest rate rises are good for you as they reduce the amount available to spend on cigarettes etc.
Coalition – first for health!
One more thing about the bias against Labor on Radio National. I don’t wake up as early as some people here, but was the ‘Cameron Thompson Gaffe’ covered at all? I bet that if a Labor backbencher did that they would be all over it like a rash ‘Yet another Labor gaffe derails Rudd’.
Also on SBS news they managed to find a Union official from the CFMEU to slag Labor. It was one of the main items!
Misty 112 – earlier this year I said a similar thing on Matt Price’s blog. The boom must end and it probably will next year or 2009. The US is almost certainly heading for a recession. Who knows the effect of that on China. Even George Mega said in his blog a few weeks back, he has been waiting for the downturn since 2003!
Bushfire Bill,
After a 20 year 30-a-day habit, I got 10 weeks into quitting with a big helping hand from Zyban (talk to your doctor). However, after gaining 10 kilos I fell off the bloody wagon. Back on the fags.
Days 3, 4 and 5 are the hardest. Downhill after day 6.
Stay strong. It’ll be tough on election night, no doubt.
Good luck
Which of the spending promises by jh and his gang are now “core” and “non-core” ?
My prediction, should he weasel his way back in, would be to scrap the hand-out to to pensioners, followed quickly by a deferring of the tax cuts,saying that it would be irresponsible in the light of overseas trends, (blaming others,of course) to continue with those. Road funding, also out the window, technical schools gone, spending on health bugger all…..the list will go on and on.
Under the libs, we are stuffed
And I am afraid that the average joe out there will swallow the lies again.
When is the ALP going to really attack the bastards on TV? They just appear to be pussyfooting about.
I am getting quite anxious about this because time is running out.
Guido 122, yeah they brought it up last night on ABC radio (PM I think) and on TV. It actually got good airplay, not just the gaffe but the follow-up fib that he’d been verballed.
This one is all over, barring one element… a verifiable scandal regarding Rudd or one of his senior frontbenchers… if the campaign remains on tit for tats and election promises as it has for the last 4 weeks, then Rudd will be a next PM.
BTW, i have just woken up here, has there been anymore developments regarding the Daily Terrorgraph rumour on Crikey?
The rate rises probably won’t show up in the next round of polls, but are likely to be factored in by election day. Ave it 07, remember what happened to your Poms at the Ashes. 5-0 AUSTRALIA!!!!
Just been out leafletting outside a child care centre.
The rate rise is the last straw for many of the voters.
The minority who can’t bring themselves to vote Labor
are looking glum and defensive. The rest have their
baseball bats out.
this ABC bias towards the coalition is pretty sickening. i’ve been noticing it for a while now.
however, i know that there have been comments re chris uhllman recently but i must say, i find him refreshingly different to the other toadys on the ABC these days (except for kezza, of course) – uhllman seems to do all he can to get pollies to actually ANSWER the question that is asked instead of just moving on to the next set question. his frustration with them is palpable. he got andrew robb’s undies in a knot this morning.
128 LOL super rugby!
What do you call Rugby world cup 7th/8th place playoff?
Bledisloe Cup!
Where is the coalition’s housing affordability plan? A small document with a large number printed on it apparently. Trot it out so we see how much more inflation is planned for us.
Will, remember the saying “wait until you see the whites of their eyes before you shoot”.
There’s no point in wasting ammunition on a distant target.
Well Labor can see the whites of John Howard’s eyes now as he fearfully looks at the interest rate increase.
The Liberals can probably hardly believe this has happened.
It has made Peter Costello look a fool.
Ave it 07, at least you didn’t win the rugby world cup, otherwise you Poms would indeed be intolerable.
Bushfire Bill – the best way to give up the fags is to watch a close relative die of lung cancer. I had to do this as my younger brother, two packs a day for 25 years, wasted away and died at 50. It was the worst 18 months of my life. Sorry to be blunt – just decide to stop and do it. A number of people I know have given them up that way. Good luck.
Lord D, is Ave it 07 a pom or is he an Australian who can’t bear to live in Australia under a Howard government?
Bye Bye rodent – and take that miserable excuse for a treasurer with you.
[130] i agree – uhlman tests them all equally.
i listen to fran kelly every morning, and find her quite frustrating. she seems much more critical and question of the labor position on any issue than she is on the government. i even heard her say during apec how it made her feel quite proud to see the australian pm (howard) hob nobbing with the US president. strange
121 Ave it 07 Gee’s that’s really really desperate!.
The 774 discussion about biased reported is over. No one canned Shanahan.
134 LOL
136 Super England!
Ave, I love the way you communicate in slogans! All of the nuance, all of the thoroughly argued and cogently presented detail is there, though subtly disguised as tired, beaten old imagination-eviscerated platitudes and cliches, and I am left in awe …
Keep it up good fellow – my respect is Going for Growth.
You’re all missing the BIG issue, the “sleeper” that’s swinging votes in the marginals…
Bugger interest rates…what about the weeds!
This from the ABC…
Weeds are proving a make or break deal for some voters in the marginal seat of Eden-Monaro, in south-east New South Wales.
Labor yesterday announced a $15 million dollars for national weed control.
Announcing the policy at Bega, primary industries spokesman Kerry O’Brien also pledged an extra $300,000 for fireweed control in the Liberal-held seat.
That was enough to impress some voters.
“Being a marginal electorate, people will look closely at these issues and it won’t take too many votes to sway things,” said one.
“For us, it will be the weed issues and certainly the announcement today is making us lean very much toward the Labor candidate and we are life-long Liberal supporters.”
Will, I think Labor have been waiting until about now. Negative ads will have more punch in the final fortnight.
Alex McDonnel I spent Sunday night with a good friend who died that night of cancer and he blamed it on his smoking. He was younger than me.
Has rodent or icebergs been quoted on this yet?
Wonder if they will have their joint gravitas press conference, yada yada yada.
Watched Skynews this morning they had Anrew Robb and Andrew Mclelland on Election Agenda – and McLelland took Robb to task – he got the point across that the Libs are confusing the electorate by changing their message in the middle of an election campaign – all wine and roses go for growth in the first three weeks and now gloom and doom and you need experience to steer the ship with tough times ahead – Robb just stuck to the Lib script but got caught when he had a go at Garrett and McLelland countered with the Cameron stuffup. He also had a go at the Australian for their headlining the latest Newspoll when he said its all within the MOE and no change really so no real joy for the Libs there.
BTW…Is a weasel a rodent?
141:
Coalition for freedom, Labor for er something else….
passthepopcorn — yeah I don’t mind Uhlman either. He seems willing to have a go at everyone. Journalists should attack Rudd and Howard with equal fervour. It’s easy to fall into the trap of thinking that so-and-so is biased when you hear them bagging Rudd, but I don’t mind at all so long as they do the same to Howard.
It’s the syncophants who only cheer for one side that piss me off. Or the ones that mindlessly parrot the government’s line.
oh god, michael @ 138 – i’m glad i missed that. it’s pretty bizarre – fran kelly used to be reasonably decent. what’s happening?! it’s more than the ABC having had the frighteners put on it…
Ave it
I suppose coming second is a cause for celebration in modern england (ah remember the days of empire) The English Rugby Team should be arrested for crimes against rugby.The laws of probability say that one day within the next 3 years they’ll manage to score a try… No wonder you think the coalition are great…
Wow, this is a turn-up, The GG giving the Coalition a serve.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22717519-5014047,00.html
Ave it 07, yes “super England”. I left it forty years ago to live in Australia and have never regretted it for a single moment. England is a nice place to visit with its quaint old houses and anachronistic monarchy and over-crowded roads but I wouldn’t want to live there. I’d prefer Australia every time, even under a hard-line conervative Howard government.
av it 07
Labor for growth and welfare of its people
Liberals for enslavement of the population
Yes I have seen the ABC bias too!
If you listen carefully the ABC weather has clear code words such as tropical depression, storm front, low designed to influence the vote in favour of the Liberals.
LOL – You guys are a scream!
Howard doing a press conference – but he has ditched the “Gowing for Growth” background.
151 – ah yes the empire – I remember it well – we spread civilisation to the whole world…. As I recall we did score a try in the final……
153 – I don’t recall missing your presence in England LOL
If Joe Hockey was the Weatherman we would have Weather Choices.
The Rodent spinning about the economy on Newsradio.
154 – this twoliner thing is quite good fun isnt it – we dont have that in England yet….
Super Howard leader of the free
Rudd down the drain as you will see
avit………..ah yes, the empire……….they killed and murdered and stole for their country, didn’t they?
LOl – v.funny GG.
What about Medicare Gold for weatherperson?
“We’ve issued orders through the administrative committee for the storm front in Melbourne to be dissipated by 6pm tonight”
Glen said:
So its okay to ignore the Nuke Proliferation Treaty if you feel threatened by an aggressive nuclear armed nation?
So you agree with what North Korea tried to do and Iran is supposedly going to? I wonder if you’ll be featured on the front page of the Tehran Daily Mail under the headline – Australian Liberal Party Stooge Says We Should Build The Bomb
Methinks the party will be putting Glen in a very dark soundproof box any second now. Please give Turnbull our regards, Glen.
Rudd’s democracy triumphant
Howard’s dictatorship dismantled.
ah yes
Howard he is a lying runt
More useless than a smelly……..
161 HAHAHAHA some people getting a little excited and desperate now!
Ah the cool leadership of the English – leading the world to civilisation!
Howard – he’s civilised too!
ESJ….The libs have been making Agrade buffoons of themselves re ABC bias your years. Alston’s list of incidents of bias was probably one of the most imaginatively comic documents ever produced by someone who wasn’t in show business. Hope you were equally as amused as we were….
And the majority appears to desire ‘er something else’ … (perhaps it’s because they’ve decided that freedom, Howard style, is so festered with paradox and distortion that they’d rather take a punt on Rudd’s Bonhoeffer-lite).
165 LOOOOOOOOOOOOL! I was waiting for it to get to that level!
Now, can anyone tell me when the first poll will come out that takes into account the interest rate rise?
109 -Lacky or wacky ?
# 112 Misty Says: November 7th, 2007 at 10:16 am
That’s just not the case. In spite of the global outlook for inflation, the fact remains that Australia has resources that other countries want, and could only dream of having, and they are going to need to pay for access to them. So higher interest rates means a higher dollar, more money for investment in the country, and cheaper imports. I truly feel for our farmers, as they are the hardest hit by a high dollar. But even the prices for their products are sky-rocketing.
The reforms of the late-80’s and early-90’s have stood us well. We now have a huge economy, and our biggest challenges are education, and the infrastructure to deliver resources. We also need more education and skills development so that the products we sell are value-added, something our existing government has been woefully bad at. These are exactly the things that Labor governments are good at.
Unlike the last time Howard was in power, at least he hasn’t completely ruined the economy. The GST, the last real policy that the government actually implemented, is also good for our economy too, regardless of the method in which it was implemented.
We have about nine wasted years, and some problems that need to be fixed. But just about every government in the world would gladly trade economic conditions with Australia.
civilisation? you idiot…………they ENSLAVED people to do their dirty work.
Now go and lick the arse of your royal patronage you turd
157 Ave it 07 No I don’t think we mixed in the same circles. The class system in England is still going strong.
173 – Super Queen Elizabeth II – your ruler (plus Howard of course)
What, an new interloper here to enlighten us colonial with home spun nothings? now thats gonna put me off my Ceylon tea!
Also on Skynews They showed Kevin Mitchell the union official getting stuck into Rudd and Gillard – of course Robb and the Skynews announcer was all over it but McLelland said they’ve got the wrong end of the stick – its a positive message for Labor because the unions are criticising Labor for NOT bowing to union demands (after they’ve given them $400000 for the campaign) – if he was devious, he would have thought their was a Labor consiracy to set it up – if so, Robb was taken in hook, line and sinker!!
Grooski
Syd Marris is actually pretty good most of the time, as is George M in the Oz.
M
I remember reading an interview with Fran Kelly and she was very much pushing the line that her strong point was her objectivity and ability to see both sides of an issue. I wonder if, putting this together with some quite odd things she’s coming out with lately, the lady protests too much and is trying too hard to prove to someone that she’s not pro-Labor, perhaps someone at the ABC holds stereotypical views about lesbians. I’m still happy she’s doing the job – it must be one of the hardest on radio to be informed, eloquent and personable at 6am Mon-Fri – but I wish she’d relax and go back to being more genuinely objective.
I always look forward to a Uhlman inteview. He’s relentless and doesn’t complacently accept spin. If I were a pollie I wouldn’t like to be interviewed by him.
Not for much longer…..!
edward @ 155, you haven’t gone back on your medication, i can tell.
174 – I’m sure you have moved up the social levels in Australia……
The government can try and spin it whichever way it likes, but there is no way on mother earth interest rates going up can be a positive for them. If I was them I’d be trying to move the media narrative onto something else, pronto.
This is a government which is clearly behind in the polls and needs to WIN votes back. The best the coalition can hope for is a week of bad headlines relating to interest rates and no net change in their polling. That then leaves them less than 2 weeks to save their necks.
He’s getting desperate………… PM says sorry for rates rise
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22717577-12377,00.html
Is it possible that we stop feeding the troll. I’m sure he’s got some rain soaked bedsitter in birmingham to rest his aching head. No need to do it here.
I suggest you all have a quick squiz at Possum’s latest graphs, if you haven’t already. Very compelling!
Jude – agree with everything you say.
Fran frustrates me, but mainly because I like her. If I didn’t like her I’d be less worried about her bias. It concerns me that I might like someone who displays liberal tendancies (other than Glen and ESJ of course).
M
no more comments from me, I am going to ignore all cretins with the contempt they so richly deserve and concentrate on the issue at hand.
Its all well
Its all swell
Its Liberal!
Goodnight!
When do banks typically send out their letters to customers passing on the interest rate rise?
189- time to have your cocoa and be tucked in my mummy is it?
anylising the graphs………beautiful work. I am no longer worried
Fran was a young journalist in 1993 on ABC’s PM.
She went in very hard against Hewson and copped some flak for it.
Maybe she is over compensating.
Guys as much fun as it is to mock Englishmen, can we please keep it on politics at least. I wont say on topic as it never does.
Ave it 07, it’s almost midnight Pom time, better be going off to be, you old Tory.
The question is whether you would rather be in Team Howard’s position or Team Rudd’s position after the rate rise is now reality? Not some gaffe, not some smear, not some campaign promise (copycat or new), not some cheerleader spin artistry in the faux newspapers or tabloid tv, but the reality of $40 (average per month on $250K mortgages) pain added to the previous 5 x $40 per month pain. Many economists are warning of the eventual flow-on pain for renters, but that’s not an immediate reality like that letter from the bank with the sad news.
The political fallout from mortgagees (and from potential new home buyers?) is down to the parlous state of housing affordability, the real % of the family’s take-home income needed to pay the mortgage, which is akin to the affordability levels of some of the worst years in the Hawke/Keating era. Not too mention some of the worst years in the Fraser/Howard era.
Little wonder that Team Howard are praying that, overall, the electorate will believe that if your head is in an extremely hot oven, but your feet are in a bucket of ice, then on average, you’re feeling like you “never had it so good”. Alternatively, that voters will trust Howard/Costello’s “safe hands at the tiller” to stop the rate pain from getting any worse.
As for the right-wing media, “Shanahanian”, spin that the Newspoll figure of ONLY 12% will blame Mr. Howard for the rate rise is actually good news for the Coalition, this is a strategy that the best defense is a strong offense. It ignores the problem that if at least one fifth of this 12% or 2.4 % reside in marginal seats (a high majority of which are in aspirational voter mortgage belts), then how does Team Howard build the momentum to claw Two Party Preferred in marginal seats back to near parity?
Assuming that “battlers” in marginal seats are by far the biggest losers from this rate rise, then perhaps Team Howard could find itself the ones turfed out after winning a national popular vote through meaningless positive swings in its safe wealthy Coalition seats, a mirror image to Kim Beazley’s fate in 1998. Of course, in that case, Team Costello (Howard having shot through like a Bondi Tram) might be lucky enough retain its Senate majority. Not predicting, just saying.
Abbott’s bedside manner.
Ordinary Aussie: I’m sick and need a hospital bed.
Minister Abbott : That’s bullsh*t
184 – yet he can’t say sorry for injustices to inigenous Australians.
Were it not so sad, the irony would be delicious.
sean (117) – You are so correct regarding ABC bias, particularly on radio.
For example this morning we had an extended interview on AM, following another extended interview with Costello yesterday. Extracts from the Robb interview were the lead item on the 9.00 am news, with no balancing comment from Labour.
Before that we were sunject to the most aggressive, insulting and over the top interview with the NSW community services minister about the death of a toddler in Sydney, with Trioli making all sorts of unwarranted assumptions about the poor girl’s death and continually hectoring and interrupting the minister.
She must have got a few complaints, because she claimed that she was simply a believer in ‘ministerial accountability’.
Yeah right Virginia, except when it’s a Federal minister.
The double standards displayed by the ABC at the moment, particularly on radio, are really beyond a joke.
GG having two bob each way, and/or reviving their position as chief whirlpool of government communications …
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22716457-5014047,00.html
195 should have bed instead of be.
Next poll will be Fri Morgan. He’ll probably have a f2f and ph poll, with the ph poll taken Wed/Thur, ie, including interest rate rise. Unfortunately, the small sample sizes of Morgan ph polls (~600) mean not much can be inferred. The next real poll will be Mon night’s Newspoll.
Bushfire Bill wrote:
If it’d help I could email you pics of the tumour that was growing in the upper lobe of my left lung.
Bill, less than 15% of those diagnosed with lung cancer are still alive 5 years later. You get better odds playing Russian Roulette with 5 chambers loaded!
I am fortunate that mine was caught very early – about 10mm diameter – but even so I have only a 60% chance of still being around after 5 years (2 down, 3 to go).
A lobecotomy is the most painful surgery you can have. Even though dosed to the eyeballs with opiates and with a continuous local anesthetic drip into the wound every breath hurts like hell. I wouldn’t wish this on my worst enemy.
I’ve been told that patches do help.
The Murdoch press reports that Howard is being shunned by the voters in his own seat of Bennelong:
http://www.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/story/0,22049,22714582-5001021,00.html
Pi – 172 I’d like to be able to share your confidence but many experts in the finance and economics game would disagree with you. Sure ,we have lots of resources that other countries CURRENTLY want, but that can change. If the US goes into recession, events in their 70% consumer driven economy will have an effect on China, no doubt. This in turn would affect us. That said, a global downturn here with a Labor government in power would be a challenge for them and how they handle things would be a good indicator of their competence and therefore long term prospects.
Is that a core sorry or a non-core sorry?
Is he saying sorry by way of expressing empathy for the misfortune of others, or saying sorry by way of accepting responsibility for his own actions?
There are many types of sorry which Howard is capable of.
182 Ave it 07, ah there you show your ignorance of Australia. There are no social levels here. We believe in egalitarianism. I am of course now an Australian and have been for many years. You can keep the English class system with all its snobbery and judgement of accents. For those Australians who have never experienced it, in England the moment you open your mouth you are placed in a social box from which you are never supposed to escape. It’s stifling.
The Queen is the head of this antiquated class system and as soon as she drops of her throne, Australia will become a republic with an Australian head of state.
CL de F,
I think possum has a few charts to disprove that nonsense. BTW, Young is a former Liberal Party official from Brisbane.
Methinks the Libs are whistling in the dark.
So Howard finally says “sorry”:
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22717577-12377,00.html
We know that this is a very important word that rarely figures in
his vocabulary. In fact, he says he will only use it if he is prepared to admit
to personal liability for causing the hurt:
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,22573149-5013469,00.html
So the PM has spoken. This should put
an end to all this media spin about him not being to blame
for the extra financial stress being put on families today.
A $60000 under Keating @16% would have cost the homebuyer around $9600pa in interest for the first year or so.
Compare that to the average loan of $300000 @ 6.75% and you are paying in excess of $20250 per year under howard.
How can the Aussie voter be so blind that they can’t even do basic maths and see for themselves who would be better off under who?
The game-du-jour amongst journalists is to bring up past off-air conversations where politicians said stupid things.
This time it’s Costello, as someone mentioned already on this thread, saying that rates wouldn’t rise in November:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/11/07/2083884.htm
For Monday night’s newspoll, when are the voters being surveyed?
this weekend
On ABC bias:
I don’t listen to FK, but do (occasionally) take in La Trioli on 702 Sydney.
Her stated position is to spruik the government’s line when they are not there in the studio to do it for themselves. She sees her role as being a stand-in, or pinch hitter for the government. This of course means that the government is present at every interview with a Labor candidate or member, physically or in spirit.
This is what has become of the ABC.
How often do youse hearn some ABC wallah say, “And now, for the purposes of balance…”. They running sh*t scared.
* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *
Off topic: Nicotine:
Thanks to all those who’ve chimed in with advice on becoming a non-smoker.
I’m where I am today because I read Allen Carr’s “Easyway” anti-smoking book. He reckons nicotine replacement therapy (NRT) only prolongs the addiction, which is what you’re trying to get rid of. He claims smoking has nothing habitual about it. It’s all addiction. Beat the addiction and you’re in with a chance.
Same for other “treatments”: he sees them as substituting one bad habit for another. Even non-NRT medications like Zyban. Carr says you have to do it cold-turkey and be positive about it, or you’ll stay addicted for life and hence miserable.
Paul B. I am on my own at home, reading a foot-thick tome (too embarrassed to say what it is, but it’s an easy read). The dogs are hiding in the bedroom. The cat has taken off. It’s me versus the Nicotine Demon. Carr says the aim is to celebrate being a non-smoker and not to regard yourself as an ex-smoker fighting the addiction for the rest of your life. Of course the Demon still whispers when you least expect it…
Carr died last year from lung cancer, but had quit 25 years before (cold turkey from 100 a day), and built up a $350 million empire from his “Easyway” clinics in the meantime. They claim to have the highest success rate of all methods in the UK.
Re NRT: it’s just something the drug companies want you to do and feel holy doing it. NRT is good for cutting down on cigarettes (as you literally substitute gum or whatever for a fag, or several), but not for quitting altogether, as you still maintain the addiction.
Contrast NRT with methadone – another replacement therapy. Methadone’s main aim is to get the addict functioning in society again, as opposed to living in the gutter. In this aim it’s successful and worthwhile. But you’re still addicted to narcotics.
With nicotine, smokers can remain reasonably within society (althought this is more and more marginal) and be fully and hopelessly addicted. So replacement therapy isn’t necessary to get the addict back on the track, or “respectable” again, as methadone is. NRT’s only benefit is that you’re not inhaling smoke. You are, however, still addicted. Best to bypass it altogether and go for the main chance.
(Most of the above has been very easy to write, but extremely difficult to maintain and/or believe).
Hemingway 196 – good post, that 2.5% will murder Howard’s chances.
BTW, a borrower is a ‘mortgagor’, the lender is the mortgagee’ – common mistake, even saw an economics writer do it recently.
When is the next ACN? NewsPoll seems to be a bit weird of late.
210,
Costello said it accidentally. This will be verified by his travelling companions “Bananas in Pjamas” who are apparently trying to de-smirk him.
It is all a big misunderstatement. Costello was concentrating on his eye contact. What he said was not important at all. No one ever listened to him before.
Holy Hand Grenade! The Pollbludger gets a mention. William, we’re becoming famous!
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22716454-5013948,00.html
204 Alex McDonnel Says: November 7th, 2007 at 11:14 am
Many experts are US-Centric, and I’m the first to admit that Americas economy is in BIG trouble. But that does not hold the same gravitas that it did even 10 years ago. Europe, China, and India are booming along, and that is not going to change. The biggest untapped market for consumers are in those countries, not America.
There are literally a hundred million new chinese and indian people that want to buy a car and furnish their house that didn’t exist 10 years ago. They’re educated, mobile, and are earning wages that are getting on par with western countries, especially in IT and other education intensive fields.
And to build those cars and furnish those houses, they need steel, and they need energy. Add on to that the explosive growth that is about to occur in the industry of green-energy production, and the inevitable replacement of all of those cars that run on petrol that will head north of $150 a barrel, and you have all of the markets that Australia is uniquely able to capitalize upon.
But to do that, we need LOTS more money spent on education. Higher education and skills-based education. All of which is going to be paid for by the continuing resources boom. You think our surpluses are big now? I’d be very surprised if our government doesn’t have an extra 20 billion a year to play with next year in the budget than they did this year.
Australia is in a VERY good position, in spite of nine wasted years. We wouldn’t want to put it off any longer, but with good policy based around education, infrastructure, and building a renewable energy industry, we’re going to be in an even better position in 10 years.
Haven’t you all realized that Aveo7, ESJ Glen Tabitha & Nostrils are all part of the same multiple personality disorder of a sick F##k wit who just craves attention.
F##k me! Ave07 is no more in the UK than I am (and I’m at Cambewarra)
bushfire bill, it’s whatever works for you. for me, it was (still is, although i haven’t smoked for some time) not only a powerful physical addiction but a habit. it’s amazing how much more time i have in my life to do other things now that i don’t smoke. i found that NRT coupled with exercise worked very well. you can do it. hey, if i can, anyone can, since i was the world’s biggest smoking/nicotine addict.
i watched my father die from emphysema. it broke his heart to see me smoking.
And the big news on the DailyTerror’s Website… “I want X-Rated Big Brother”
Bushfire Bill
I was a big time cig addict – last thing at night, first thing in the morning. I am an alumnus of and supporter of the cold turkey school. Over and done with is the way to go. My acquaintances who use nico substitutes, go back to the cigs and are on the merry go round for years. A final decision and determination with a handful of days’ pain works. Keep it up. You’ve broken the back of it.
Just a little point. Did JWH tell us some time ago that he would not say “sorry” because he/us were not responsible (reconciliation). Now he says “sorry” for interest rate rise, then says he is not responsible! What flexibility.
Can the Liberal Party supply someone for this blog who can give us some intelligent conversation. I am really getting tired of this kindergarten stuff they are providing so far.
Unfortunately for Howard, all the “clever” arguments he put forward at his news conference to spin the rate rise his way will go right over the heads of the vast majority of the great unwashed. All they will hear is – interest rates are up again.
Famous last words by Peter Costello. What’s the bet the ALP will use it in their advertising?
For all the bluff and bluster about people not blaming John Howard and the government for the interest rate rise, their rationals minds will say it’s not totally in the government’s control but in their HEARTS they will be angry with the government.
Many many people believed John Howard when he said he would keep interest rates at record lows and they made decisions on that basis, like hocking themselves up to their eyebrows to buy a new home.
They also voted for him on that basis.
These people will feel terribly betrayed.
What I find difficult to believe is why Peter Costello was so utterly blind to the possibility of an interest rate increase today.
We all seemed to be aware of it on this blog and have been talking about it for months. That’s why we were predicting the government would go on Nov 3rd.
It may be a case of none so blind as those who refuse to see.
BB, here’s the way one of my friends did it. Don’t know whether it will work for you, but you can always give it a go:
Get yourself some unpleasant pictures of people dying from lung cancer, or of nasty tumours. Some people on this thread might be able to send you some.
Keep at least one picture with you at all times, and every time you feel like a cigarette take it out and look at it momentarily. Focus on how horrible the image is. Carry a different picture each day so your mind doesn’t get bored by looking at the same thing.
The aim here is to create an association between having a cigarette and a nasty uncomfortable image/feeling. It’s pretty much just a Pavlov’s dog kind of training. Very basic, but taps into a fundamental pleasure/pain association I think.
(217) Congrats Rob and Grog – you made it into the MSM!
Howard “Sorry for rate rise”.
It’s not an apology. That would imply…. guilt… (such a nasty word).
He’s sorry it happened. Kinda like you’re sorry when you see a dog run over on the street. ..”What a shame”.
Nothing to do with Howard though.
Actually it’s a good thing. Shows the economy’s on the up and up.
Except there’s some bad news, too: petrol’s gone up. No fault of Howard’s (oh yeah? what about the Iraq war and the sabre-rattling against Iran?).
Only they can manage the economy. I mean, they f**ked it up, so they should know how to fix it, right?
I find it unbelieveable, but there are actually some commentators out there who really believe this rate rise is a plus for Howard. It shows how deranged they’ve become.
“Wenck is coming!”
“We have new secret weapons!”
“The Russians are falling into our trap!”
“No-one else can rule except us!”
* * * * * * * * * * * * *
P.S. Mayo, thanks but no thanks. Keep up those regular checkups!
Well, look there, it’s out! It’s the BIG ‘W’!
Yep, first time in this electoral cycle, the BIG ‘W’ has made an appearance. Get ready to see it all over the place in the MSM near you.
In today’s GG, Kelly has let the BIG ‘W’ off the leash, and it is now out there in the electorate’s consciousness, drooling and licking its ravenous maw as it lurks in the shadows ready to pounce and maul the unsuspecting and their children.
Beware, it’s the BIG ‘W’…it’s the cursed creature that cannot show it’s name! It’s….yes, this is frightening, avert your eyes, cover your ears…it’s WHITLAM!!!!
Yes folks, Rudd will be setting up a branch of the KGB in the Prime Minister’s Office, he’ll be taking control of the military, (maybe Mushareef will give him some lessons on how to dress in uniform), and this is all so very, very “Whitlamesque”.
Oh god, let’s hope all those under 40’s voters get onto Wikipedia right now, and read all about how horrible the BIG ‘W’ was.
This is the mother of all scare campaigns! The BIG ‘W’, for f#@ks sake, can’t these cretins think up anything better than that?
Will @ 205
With all due respect… that is ridiculous. You are suggesting we are now all worse off because houses are worth more? Anybody who bought a house for 60k under the Keating years would now be laughing all the way to the bank after a decade of rates around 6%. The sensible ones will now have money stashed away, and will be enjoing this rate rise.
Are you suggesting people would be better off if the price of their family home collapsed??
217 @ Grooski
Thanks for that link… it’s good to know that other people notice that at well. I don’t know what everybody is going to do next year if they don’t have a conservative government to plot the downfall of. Scrabble?
On the off topic note – good luck Bill, I have no doubt you will pull through. Keep at it.
Curious that the latest Newspoll was shaved down to 53/47; we have poll saying Howard has improved lead as better economic manager which is all over the morning shows ‘running text’ and, the same day we have an interst rate rise.
Bit of planning in this?
GG – yes, everyone should check out Possum’s latest graphs, as you (and indeed I!) pointed out. This demonstrates why the rattites are so desperately trying to spin things. If it was such a natural form of assistance to them, I doubt that they’d be telling us how it helps them along. Next thing they’ll be telling us how we really NEED this interest rate rise and that it’s a hallmark of their cunning plan to help the economy get better soon.
Average house financing was about 2.5 times average full time annual earnings in 1995. I last checked in August 2006, and at that point it had risen to about 4 times annual average full time earnings. My guess is that it’s now around 4.2 or 4.3 times annual f/t earnings.
People are not stupid, as Possum’s charts show. On the other hand, it’s quite arguable that Costello is. As well as spineless.
Bushfire Bill: on giving up smoking; physical activity is essential. It fills in time and gives you further evidence of why you need to stop smoiking. I swam a lot when I gave it up; then I started running. It’s tough at first, but you clean yourself out and feel much better quite quickly. The idea of smoking becomes more and more abhorrent as you get more fit.
Good luck – my 44 year old brother in law died a fortnight ago of lung cancer, leaving three kids and a grieving wife. Have confidence that you can do it, just keep up the effort on a day to day basis!
DR GOOD…. had not read your post(208) when I submitted(223). Is JWH ever fair dinkum?
Sorry – that’s will at 209
Great discussion, everyone. Labor has to be on the right side of the ledger re the interest rate rise, surely. But watch for the invective and spin to come from Howard and Costello. And don’t forget that there is the (unconfirmed) smear to come out in the Daily Telegraph on Friday. That could well knock the wind out of Labor’s sails. I hope Rudd is prepared.
Is is just me or has anyone else noticed that there has been very few attack ads from Labor? I would have thought that now is the time to be launching the boot into Howard and his tired government’s record. I hope Labor’s attack ads are suitably vicous when (I hope) they do come.
It makes me think that Labor thinks this is a “best and fairest” contest. This is not the Brownlow medal – low blows and foul play are all part of the game. Surely it’s time for Labor to get in a few cheap shots of their own or risk being used as a punching bag by Howard.
In post 91 – Alan Kohler showed that average rates in Liberal and Labor gov’ts were equal.
This is a great line to use on an increasingly hysterical Howard and Costello. Who on earth is running Rudd’s campaign? Why doesn’t Rudd use this? I’ve written to Kevin07 to suggest that they do.
BB- CL’s right – physical activity is the key. That along with whatever works for you. I think cold turkey is the best option, but everyone’s different.
Nicotine is an insidious drug though, I was still having dreams about smoking 15 years after giving up!
Bushfire Bill wrote:
“What is the best way to survive day #3 of giving up smoking cold turkey (after a 35/day habit)?”
I used to run a stop smoking programme many years ago which produced some remarkable results.
You can lie to your subconscious. You tell yourself that you are FREE. Never mention the word cigarettes or smoking. Just tell tell yourself- out aloud preferably- that you are finally free. You will know what your are free of but just don’t reinforce those dreaded words.
What happened to so many people was that the lie they told themselves became a reality. One person who had been smoking heavily for decades said he actually forgot to smoke that morning. He had convinced his subconscious that he was now free of the habit.
Remember also that 50% of all smoker die from the habit. This is russian roulette where there are three bullets in the six chambers.
If you had been with me and my dying friend on Sunday night, you would need no futher incentive.
bushfire re giving up smoking
nicotene patches & gum still keep you addicted to nicotene so try and stop using them as soon as possible, nicotene takes 6 weeks to clear the body
try to keep busy , read as much literature on the benefits of not smoking as possible for positive reinforcement
it’s hard to stop but it is well worth it
goodluck bushfire
Bushfire Bill at 229
The price of oil went up because Howard got involved in Iraq?
C’mon people, just because the election is less than thre weeks away doesn’t mean we have to exaggerate things to such an extent like this.
I don’t think this rate rise will be a plus for Howard. I really don’t think it will be a negative either. It’s just a day of campaigning when Rudd gets to harp on about ‘failed promises’ and what not. ‘Working families’ who have switched alleigances would have done so courtesy of WorkChoices, or the other five rate rises. I doubt this rise will swing a batch of voters over.
Pi – 218 I’m sure you are right in regard to our long term prospects. My comments are directed mainly at what is going to happen over the next few years. The US is no longer the major global player, but they are still one of our major export markets.
The sad part about economic development in China and India is that, as new consumers, they will bring more cars, more appliances and more pollution to the planet and add greatly to the environmental problems that already face us. But we can’t say to them ‘don’t do it’ – we’ve had our turn in the lolly shop, they’ll want theirs.
(217) From the Oz:
Infested? Hmmm, that’s objective reporting. Pessimists? The only pessimist on here is LTEP! Perhaps someone should send them our seat predictions. If you have to spin it one way or the other, then surely this blog is “infested” with optimists.
Finally, they’ve printed it in black and white.
William, please frame this quote and make a new banner and tagline for this site. I think this would look great:
“POLLBLUDGER
Because the Australian’s analysis is always wrong.”
What do you think?
no Max, I am not suggesting that at all!
Spin this Denis Shanahan.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22717627-12377,00.html
213 Bushfire Bill. The ABC uses the line that the government has already established. If they try to avoid the issue by not turning up this is the only way the ABC can give a half fair response. This is to their complete disadvantage, because they cannot use spin to weasel out of an issue.
IMHO, Samantha Maiden is Tabitha …
So it is finally revealed, Glen, Steven Kaye and ESJ are all “Labor loving pessimists”.
It’s got to be true, it is written in the Australian!
Had a chat with Peter Garrett last night concerning the project and I’d like to relate my take on the guy….but you guys have more important things to discuss, so I’ll wait to it’s on topic.
I just wish the Australian had quoted one particular blogger… John Hunt is a Coward.
In a recent interview Howard said that if he wanted to talk to the electorate he chose talk back, but if he wanted to get a message to his troops, he would go on the ABC, preferably AM. My analysis of the Robb interview on AM this morning was him communicating the spin for the day in light of interest rates to Team Liberal. My call is that Ullman was very weak and let him pump out the spiel uninterupted.
Last night on Lateline was one for the vault however: Kev looked so genuinely excited over have a brick on a winner it inspiring. i dont think he knows how to be bad and have fun. Old Jack chucked a shitty when someone stood up in front of him during the race (welcome to the world, Loser)he couldnt believe he hadnt backed the winner,then I thought was going to have a nervy over the Cameron Thompson gaffe…plus as a bonus to see Dolly ambushed and then tortured over whether he will be the next treasurer under PM Costello was golden. I slept well.
Who will the treasurer be under PM Costello? surely we are entitled to know.
A little bit of excercise, like a walk around the block is good for the new non smokers. Dont be too ambitious. Be gentle with yourself and enjoy the view.
Going for Growth or Going for Broke?
If this is bad, imagine how much worse it would be under Labor?
If the Liberals lose, it will be economic Armageddon. The sky would fall in and interest and wages and inflation would all rise.
Haven’t they already? Yes of course but wages have fallen under Workchoices which is bad for working families but good for the economy.
So if you think this is bad, just remember that only Workchoices Mark 2 can save this economy now.
ashley, i’ve had a t-shirt made with john hunt is a coward. i plan to wear it when i cast my vote.
Labor loving pessimists might like Laurie Oakes in today’s edition of The Bulletin (mag copy only) – counselling the Libs to draft an “Embassy Rooftop Strategy” aka the ALP’s 1996 loss of office plan, and to think about holding back advertising $$ and make some decisions about opposition staffing. Nice “Jurassic John” graphic on the cover also.
This rate rise will indeed be a shock to very many people. Most people are not glued to the news as some of us are and are just going about their daily business of trying to earn a living.
I think we are not seeing the wood for the trees.
Of course this is a huge negative for John Howard. Indeed he has already made something of an apology.
It has shattered his image of a better economic manager.
It’ll take a couple of days to sink in, even a week or so, but when it does – probably with the help of ALP ads -it’ll prove the death knell for the government.
Some will even say “why did John Howard let this happen? I thought he said he would keep interest rates low.”
This should cost the government a good 1%, maybe more.
Just watch the polls after the weekend.
Even the GG won’t be able to help on this one.
LOL. I was thinking of doing the same thing. But then I figured it will be irrelevant after Nov 24.
If by some miracle Howard wins I will print one and wear it every day for a month.
Following on from John Howard’s rationale for why he shouldn’t have to say sorry on behalf of the Australian people for the stolen generation i.e. that you can’t make someone responsible for the past actions of others.
Does this mean that by saying sorry about the interest rate rise he recognises that this was completely all of his fault?
There’s gotta come a time when uncle rupert pulls the plug on this farce at the OZ and attempts to salvage whats left of that papers reputation. The Samantha Maiden article is a real laugh. They must have sub editors in that place roaming around like orcs with orders to keep the neutered journalists on message. It really must be humiliating.
According to Ms Maiden’s article, PB is an enclave of ‘lefty pessimism’ spouting biased and ridiculous interpretations of available polls (tuesdays newspoll was of course a clear indication of a turn back to the coalition).
The poor thing, she must have crept around this nasty site like a flustered school girl who’d left the comforting confines of the news limited dormitory where right is right, Little johnny is forever pm and uncle rupert holds her hand from on high. You can just hear the ‘um ah’ escaping from her lips as she scurried on back…
Working as a journalist at the OZ must be the equivalent of working as a Vet at an abettors
#251 Is that pessimism or a free kick for Johnny Howard….by the way please enlighten me on ya mate John Hunt… I worked with a builder laborer with the same who drove an XL Falcon coupe.
sorry..same name!
ashley, i don’t believe in miracles!
Costello has scheduled a news conference about the IR rate rise and it will likely conflict with the debate here shortly. Doesn’t seem that the government can get any angle of their timing right
……. Sky will show the debate and his news conference will get stuffed lol …….
John Howard: “I am sorry about that”
248
scaper… Please figure out a way to weave your Garrett meeting into the blog.
I’m most interested.
From Max #231: “I don’t know what everybody is going to do next year if they don’t have a conservative government to plot the downfall of. Scrabble?”
I would anticipate that the great majority of those “plotters” posting here now will, like myself, be right back here holding a blowtorch to the belly of Team Rudd if (when?) elected, he does not live up to his commitments in government.
Unlike those Team Howard supporters here, vainly spouting bogus excuses for Howard/Costello’s blatant breaching of our trust as well as sneaking in divisive industrial relations “reforms”, I will be as harsh in my criticism of a Rudd Government as I have been, in both newspaper letters and online, for the woeful, malevolent NSW Carr/Iemma Labor government.
If you don’t believe this, then that’s your problem, not ours.
Ashley @ 210,
quoting the stories:
“… 774 ABC Melbourne presenter Jon Faine says a couple of months ago he asked Mr Costello WHY the Coalition had not called an early election to get the campaign out of the way before the Reserve Bank decision.”
WHY? because Howard said so.
Costello had no say in that and he wouldn’t have clue as why Howard delayed the election. Also, he didn’t understand why Howard did not step down earlier with grace and dignity.
so much for the team Howard – Costello
Anymore on the smear story the Tele is hanging onto? An ‘insider’ friend said he’d heard nothing.
Ashley & Passthepopcorn @ #252, I bought one of those little numbers somewhere off the internet shortly after the last election, and hoped that Howard would serve a full term so I could get full use out of it.
It will get brought out on election day!
May I ask a serious question here…
Possum? William? Ya watching?
Preamble. Ive no doubt interest rates rises are bad news for the government. I had my qualms about Possum’s graphs. Its not just to do with the issue of confounding variables, its also about causality, and I’m not sure Possum tested for that?
And given that interest rates rises *cause* people to change their vote (I’ve no doubt this is true at some level). The question is, how does it change their votes. Is it the immediate reaction ‘you guys lied to us’, or is it the delayed ‘heck, my payments have gone up’.
Any good guesses, or analysis about the lag?
This is important since we’ve only got 2 weeks for the voting effect to kick in.
Someone should tell Family first about the old saying of being able to choose your friends.
http://abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/11/07/2083798.htm
Oh my, just read Overington’s piece in the Oz, what an utter dill with zero credibility. This woman either has mush for brains or is so partisan she just can’t see past her blind party politicking. Hope the libs actually paid for that piece as it is merely a propaganda advertisement. Yeah rah rah Caroline, go Johnie. Pathetic tripe!
http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/coverington/index.php/theaustralian/comments/rates_rise_is_good_news_for_howard/
well, we’ll be quite the fashionistas, ND. good way of deflecting those Liberal how-to-vote card people.
Paladin
Nothing more…..Cynic on this blog yesterday seemed sure it was about the Rudd’s having had a trial separation at some stage. Doesn’t seem like a big story to me. Other possiblitities were:
Sex with a prostitute
Sex with a goat
Sex with someone not his wife
Some kind of financial impropriety.
Possiblity of him being related to Osama bin laden.
Conversation with the Angry Dwarf in which he called him a pathetic little c.nt.
# 241 Alex McDonnel Says: November 7th, 2007 at 11:46 am
# 241 Alex McDonnel Says: November 7th, 2007 at 11:46 am
They’ve been decreasing as our major partner for a long time, and will continue to do so.
Take a look at the 2006 figures…
http://www.dfat.gov.au/trade/trade2006/trade2006.pdf
Resources largest export trading partners (in order)
Japan, China, Korea, EU, ASEAN, India, Taiwan
Services largest export trading partners (in order)
Japan, China, US, Korea, NZ, India, Singapore, Thailand
The US barely gets a mention. And this is going to continue.
Completely true, but it’s not all bad. Very little time is given in the current media to the actual damage that has been done by western nations over the past 100 years. All Howard wants to talk about is the percentage of what we contribute now, not the percentage of what we’ve contributed over those 100 years. Add on top of that the fact that we at least now understand that we have to change our ways.
We can lead by example, and those countries that are producing the types of goods we already have in our economies, can do so in the future without the same impact that we caused on the environment during our industrialization phase. But they won’t develop the technologies that will curb the types of outcomes that need to be curbed. We can. Not only can we do so, but we have the moral obligation to do so.
And when we’ve modernized our industries to have lesser of an environmental impact, countries like India and China will be able to utilize these technologies without waiting 100 years to do so.
We caused these problems in our environment. Not over the past 10 years, and not over the next 20, but over the past 100. We can’t expect countries that didn’t cause these environmental problems, after we’ve capitalized upon the woeful handling of the issues, and then not bother to fix them out of spite, because these countries won’t accept the burden of something they might do in the FUTURE.
The only way it is ever going to happen, is if we lead by example, and fix out own backyard, before we start pontificating about people fixing theirs.
mad cow – the thing is, it’s not going to make anyone vote FOR Howard. It will make people vote against Howard. Given that the ALP is well ahead, that’s all we need. BTW – this Caroline Overington piece is the most amazing piece of tripe I’ve seen since I went to butcher last week.
http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/coverington/index.php/theaustralian/comments/rates_rise_is_good_news_for_howard/
Let it end @ 270, et moi @ 275 – I’m pleased to see that great minds not only think alike but employ the same metaphors
CL, agreed, but Id like to see a response from the guys who like doing the stats about the time constants involved. I’d truly like to believe that that 0.25 interest rate rise will cost Howard 0.9 in votes, but the question then is, how long does it take to kick in?
You want my unscientific opinion. I think the immediate reaction is neutral. Those who believe Howard is an unmitigated liar, already know it. Those who refuse to believe it aren’t going to change either.
So then you look at those voters who might change their vote when they see their bank statement. How soon does this happen?
Howard and Costello have stuffed up the economy big time and need to go for the sake of national security.
277 Possum worked all that out months ago Mad cow.
goodness, ms overington needs medication, along with EStJ.
Gee, that Ms Albrechtson is a spiteful sort of person. I assume she is grooming herself for a tilt at the top job. Apparently being a solicitor who works with unions makes one ineligible to be PM. On the other hand, being married, loving the USA and hating the working class are essential qualifications.
I guess when you’re staring down the barrel, you get some funny notions. I am looking forward to her column after the 24th ‘Voters get it wrong”.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22715142-5013450,00.html
Let It End, re: Overington,
I had a look at one of her blogs a few days back. What gets me are her flippant replies to selected posts. She was doing a hatchet job on Garrett and pretending she didn’t know who Wilkins was. It looked very much like the product of a long lunch.
I remember the gushing piece of pro Howard hagiography Caroline Overington wrote in the Australian Magazine a few months ago! She and David Speers would make a fine pair!
Out of curiosity, is there a blog for Howard lovers?
I don’t think it out of the question that Howard could be happy about the rate rise. The Libs desperately need a circuit breaker and they’re probably happy to throw caution to the wind. This line that an interest rate rise is good for Howard has been doing the rounds for a while and I’m sure Howard is willing to embrace it. The worst thing that can happen for him is for things to keep rolling along like they are. All his eggs will be in the basket of scaring the public over economic management and hoping that his friends at the terror do a good job publicising the dirt that they’ve been given by Howard’s special unit.
# 283 Howard Hater Says: November 7th, 2007 at 12:23 pm
Those sites keep on getting spurned because of their anti-semitism.
HH
At
Piers “has been” blog you can feel the love.
CL de Footscray.I think she may be getting a bit shrill because she doesn’t want to lose her seat on the ABC and therefore suffer a wage cut?
Madcow
In econometrics you cant test for causality, but you can test for granger causality which means testing whether movement in one series leads to another series moving.
If we test the cash rate against the ALP TPP since 2002, where the null hypothesis is “cash rate does not granger-cause ALP TPP” (yes, I know, granger causality uses a strange double negative) and use 2 lags on monthly data, we get an F-stat of 2.87 with a p-value of 0.066, meaning that we reject the null hypothesis and conclude that movements in the cash rate do granger cause movement in the TPP at the 7% level of significance. Once we adjust for the Latham honeymoon period and test again, that actually produces granger-causality at the 2% level of significance – both are acceptable for this type of work to say that interest rates have been a leading indicator of the TPP since 2002.
Testing for how long the change in rates takes to flow through, it starts on aaverage the second poll after the rate rise, and becomes significant on average the third poll after the rise historically. Yet the reaction time has been continually shortening over 20 years. The question is, in an election campaign, does such a rate rise compress even further the reaction time?
I dont know, but we’ll find out soon
Clearly the shock troops at the GG got together last night and decided to go for the battle of the bulge approach. Janet opens up a new front on Gillard. Kelly harkens back to big bad Gough. Overington just goes nuts, and adopts the ‘kamikaze’ approach having run out of anything even remotely sensible to say (yes I know that was the wrong front in WWII, but they were allies after all). I think the BotB was diversionary but the end result was the same. The boss ended up in the bunker and they all didn’t have fun.
I guess Piers’s ‘expose’ on Friday (if it is actually any more than a total pile of non-existent pooh, which is what I think it is) will be in the same vein.
Bushfire Bill,
There are various addictions out there. I, myself, had a way too heavy coffee habit for a number of years, 30+ (and I am 46, I started early). Coffee was just about all I drank on most days. I was warned by my doctor about 18 months ago that it was affecting my health to the point where I was anemic and my heart was being overworked with the constant caffeine buzz. I took one look at my husband and my kids still at home (9 and 6) and thought to myself, right, I want to be there for my family, my heart is nothing to mess around with.
I quit cold turkey and I was physically sick for the better part of a week, I broke the hump on about day 6 and I haven’t looked back. I drink only herbal teas now.
Good luck
….
I suspect a lot of the politically less aware have probably noticed speculation about an interest rate rise but have discounted because they think Howard won’t allow this to happen before the election – they may not even realise he doesn’t have direct control of it. This will jolt them into reality. I agree with CL de Footscray that it isn’t going to make anyone vote FOR Howard but it may well jolt quite a lot of people into voting AGAINST him.
Is Overingtons new job the village idiot?
266 Paladin One take on the Tele rumours under the Heading:
“What Does The Daily Telegraph Have In Its Friday ‘Scoop’ Bucket For Rudd?
http://theorstrahyun.blogspot.com/
Bushfire Bill.
This is a different way of doing it which worked for me. Every time you REALLY feel like a fag do 5 min of exercise, anything that gets your heart rate up and gets you huffing and puffing a bit (but dont overdo it). Step ups or lunges are good indoors, a brisk walk is better.
You get a natural oxygen and adrenalyn (sp?) kick from the exercise and it makes you feel great for the next hour. It offsets weight gains and you feel good about yourself. Also means you are dealing with the habit by replacing it with another habit.
One other thing is to have a straw or something like that (not a lolly) to suck on. That physical hand to mouth habit could trip you up.
Good Luck
Madcow, In case Possum’s light quip wasn’t a full enough explanation.
http://possumcomitatus.wordpress.com/2007/10/26/why-rates-matter/
Statistics – dont amount to a hill of beans.
In the States the tobacco lobby showed drinking milk was causally connected to lung cancer for smokers? Any two variables can be connected in the same way.
Remember, this is likely to be the most hyped interest rate rise ever. They are all a pain in the bank account (as I know only too well) but I think that even the Idol/Deal or no Deal crowd will notice this one more quickly than ever.
STEVE @ 269
Read the article, one question, is the ethanasia proposed for before or after the incest, if it is before then they really are getting into some weird kinkiness.
I like courting the two silly girls at the Oz and do you think I would find out the bad news concerning Matt Price otherwise?
It will be interesting what they write after this election is over…
Julia won the toss and put Hockey into bat
ESJ @ 295 – if you really believe that you’re a much bigger dill than I thought.
Let It End @
agree! Overington and Howard try to weasle out both ways
On one hand, if interest rate low, it’s due to Howard “credit”
On the other hand, if interest rate is not “so low”, then people should trust Howard to make it “record low” !?!??
Sorry, I don’t buy that crap.
Time to trash the myth of Howard’s “good” economic managment
Hemmingway @ 264
I would reply, but that generalisation says to me that I, as a Liberal and thus “Team Howard” supporter, have already been labelled, thus there really isn’t much point, is there? Then again, I generalised in calling you all ‘plotters’, so I will give the benefit of the doubt that such a line was not aimed at me, and give a few ramblings.
If you have read my posts before, you will have noticed that I have on occaison criticised the government. I hate the new electoral laws. The IR laws were good in theory, went a touch too far and probably need to be tinkered with, but the scare campaign by the union has frankly made me disbelieve everything that they now have to say on the matter. All in all, the reforms will end up having a positive effect. I think the rate rise ‘promise’ of 2004 by Howard was idiotic. The price is now being paid. Whether or not rates would have gone up higher under Labor is a matter for debate, who knows what type of spending a Latham governmenmt would have embarked upon?
It’s politics. Labor was incompetent to the point where they lost the Senate, due to a number of factors, but it happened, the electorate voted as such. I will, like most, be releived when it returns to a house of review, but the fact is the government had the oppportunity to set laws as it pleased for two years. It did so, with a few exceptions of floor crossings. It now faces accountability for it’s actions. So be it. This is how democracy works.
My issue that Rudd has essentially sat back and will claim government on the ‘it’s time’ factor, and various negative perceptions about Howard about. I’m not sure whether I’m more disapointed in Labor for doing that, or with the Liberals for not changing the guard earlier when they had a chance (I was a staunch backer of Costello for some time.) Does Labor deserve government more? Or do the Liberals ‘not deserve’ it more? I would rather the former eventuate, but it seems unlikely, which is the result of evolving negative politics.
“Statistics – dont amount to a hill of beans.”
The war cry for deniers of observable reality everywhere that one.
“In the States the tobacco lobby showed drinking milk was causally connected to lung cancer for smokers?”
Got a cite? I’ll demolish it.
“Any two variables can be connected in the same way.”
Only if you don’t know what you’re doing.
From memory (and I was only in Yr 7 at high school), the 1998 election had less to do with One Nation than the GST. That was the real polarising factor.
I freely admit to hoping that if Labor win I will lose this obsession. It’s frankly exhausting.
My real motive in taking such an interest in this election is not to see the Libs lose, but to see Howard lose. He is a nastly, viscious little man, who has divided a country I was once proud of. He leads by highlighting the worst instincts in our national counsciousness, and I will celebrate if he loses more than I have ever celebrated in my life.
Then, hopefully, I can have a rest from the blogosphere for a while.
M
293 Ed@bennelong, if Piers’s story IS housegate, someone should not only remind the public of the Howard’s 11 years of free (not to the taxpayer) use of K House (as that blogsite suggests) but also of the recent controversy regarding its use for what some saw as LNP fundraising.
Max, did you think that Howard ‘deserved’ govt in 96 when he sat back, rode on Keating’s coat tails and barely proposed anything other than that things would be ‘relaxed and comfortable’ under a lib govt. The small target strategy was pioneered by Howard.
297 It will make no difference to FF as long as the postalvote is completed prior to euthenasia.
Pi – 274 Good post, I’m impressed with your optimism, maybe I’ve become a bit of a cynic in my advancing years.
Possum,
This milk thing must be true. No one smokes milk any more!
Re Overington:
I smell a pisstake with her writings. Does not make sense otherwise and she has a good journo background especially re the AWB scandal.
“causally connected”? wtf does that MEAN, EStJ?
Michael (305), my turn to agree with everything you say. The blogosphere is a kind of twilight zone.
Poss @ 292
How does one get the official job of “Village Idiot” in a village full of idiots?
Gillard now speaking in debate.
abc.net.au/news
Sean @ 272 Thanks. Might corner the goat vote
Ed @ 293. Thanks. if that’s it it could still be played by the Libs as Rudd being out of touch with those feeling pain now etc, etc. Even if that was done well then it would run 2 days max. The libs are unable to dent Russ’s image. Insider friend told me that. People might think he’s a bit inexperienced but they do believe him when he talks, unlike JH.
Insider friend did confirm the nuclear deterrent aspect of smear. There’s files on everybody. I mean everybody! Apparently there is a line (he wouldn’t articulate it though) that if crossed smear armegeddon would be unleahed. He did say however that the Lib’s files are much juicier than the Labor’s.
Just what is it with the Tories and kinky sex?
Knowing Piers Ackerman he will probably have a new “insight” into the Heiner affair. Anyone know a good vet ? Some animals need putting down.
“Statistics – dont amount to a hill of beans.”
Good we will get rid of all epidemiologists then. Twat.
Michael -You work for a noble cause.
Those are the same reasons that I blog and fight for the demise of Howard.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cincinnatus
And hopefully after Howard loses we can get some rest, only to pick up the sword again if Rudd is just as bad.
Gillard is wiping the floor!
319 – did you doubt it? Janet the A has done her a favour today. She’ll be fired up …
hockey was rabbiting on about what the coalition would do for grandparents…
Gilly has a steely, feisty look. Uncle Buck looks like he’d rather be somewhere else.
Streaming works well at abc.net.au/news/.
She seems to be playing pressure tactics, hoping Joe will crack, and give the press something to focus on.
On Oil prices and Howard’s responsibility: Howard was a fully paid-up founding member of the Coalition of the Willing, responsible for the invasion and continued occupation of Iraq. and now we have the sabre-rattling re. Iran. Every time this happens – with Howard’s enthusiastic support – the price of oil goes up.
You’d almost think that Bush had an oil industry background and lots of friends in it still… but I digress.
Howard is as morally responsible for the trouble in the Middle East as anybody. He sure accepts responsibility for it, even boasts about it. Who are we to naysay that? If he wants the glory he can take the opprobrium for the resultant increase in oil prices. No two ways about this. He made his bed. He’s gotta lie in it.
* * * * * * * * * * * * * *
Smoking: Wonderful, wonderful people. Superb bloggers. I don’t know how Whatserface at the GG could say such unkind things about the PB Crew. Thanks for all the tips on giving up smoking and the advice on how to stay given-up.
I think if you use a substitute you’re always addicted to something, but there’s nothing like the real thing is there, when it’s time to go off the substitute and back on the weed?. I think the key is to go really cold turkey.
It’s just that I can’t “see” myself yet on the other side of the tunnel. I had the same feeling once (not physically, but mentally) when I was 1/2 an hour into a four hour sea-going fishing cruise during which I was permanently, violently seasick. The minutes passed like hours… the hours like days… youse know what I mean.
Rumour: Liberal private polling in North Sydney isn’t looking too good for Uncle Buck. No wonder he’s nervous: Julia is wiping the floor with him, as predicted.
Was Joe nodding when Julia was talking about the decline in women’s wages?
Joe sounds nervous…
i think it’s time msm started asking howard and costello why they have not had a plan to slow inflation down
this is the 10th interest rate rise in 5 years
interest rate rises is not a new phenomenon, just been ignored
howard has no plan ,the indication of this was their slogan ” go for growth”
which as other poll bludgers have noticed has disappeared from the billboard behind howard at today’s press conference
Someone needs to market a bobbing-head Joe.
The Overington blog has gone into meltdown. I have never seen so much bile allowed on by the moderator. Its really quite amusing. They even let mine on which they almost never do.
“Caroline, a new low for you! When you won the Walkley for failing to demonstrate the Governments role in the AWB scandal, I realised Australian journalism was dead. I was reminded of another famous prize that was not deserved, Moniz winning the Nobel Prize for frontal lobotomy.”
Here’s a line that I’d like to see Labor run:
Over the last few years, John Howard has taken more and more control of the running of Government. Make references to Turnbull etc. being overruled. Then remind about JH’s economic credentials, and the danger of a one-man show.
Maybe they meant growth in interest rates?
“Apparently being a solicitor who works with unions makes one ineligible to be PM.”
Well, I read that Menzies did that once as well, Janet.
“Village Idiot” sounds like a perfect new name for the G.G if Rudd wins since it will no longer be a mouth piece for the Howard Govt. Thus its new name could be “The Village Idiot”, especially if it keeps its stable of Howard/Liberal sycophants.
In the future GG = VI
Murdoch is a disgrace really, a blight on the societies where he has newspapers, it seems.
The Overington blog didn’t publish mine which was
“You would argue that John Howard’s turds were fine Belgian chocolate”
Coalition has released policy allowing new parent’s to take a year off unpaid leave. And something about double paid leave. No doubt more details will hit the news sites soon.
Ashley, it’ll get drowned out by the interest rate announcement: why I suspect Rudd won’t announce anything much today.
It’s funny as hell!
The journos at the GG might be partisan little trogs, but the moderators on their blogs are clearly not!
I got this on today:
Ms Albrechtsen, we know how you got on the ABC Board, we also know you won’t be staying there long, and judging the comments about this appalling opinion piece, the majority won’t miss you.
So how come the IR Minister isn’t releasing the detail of unpaid leave for new parents? And isn’t this a change to SerfChoices?
AND I did send of my email to family and friends warning of a big smear coming from an Australian newspaper this week. Seems to have worked well – now they are wondering what low thing people will try and are sending the same warning around.
Now if everybody emails a warning to 6 family and friends who do likewise it doesn’t take too long to cover the whole country. LIke an anti-biotic.
Bushfire Bill, good luck with the cold turkey. It works sometimes. I’ve never been a smoker, so I don’t know the cravings. My wife works in tobacco control however, and she helpfully dumped statistics my way. Success rate of cold turkey: 3-5%. Yikes. But people keep trying of course (’giving up smoking’s easy – I’ve done it dozens of times’) and eventually a lot of them get there just by willpower and eating boiled lollies and self-help books. So go for it if that’s your thing, and all the best.
Wife does however recommend you get over the NRT/Big Pharmaceutical thing (she sighed, audibly). If CT falters and you go back on the fags, you’re sucking in 4000 chemicals in the smoke, 69 of which are known carcinogens. At least feeding the nicotine monster with a patch gets you away from that sh*t.
So try CT, but if you can’t stand it, go for the gum, not the Winnie Blues.
And the NRT nicotine levels are much lower than in fags. You’ll still get cravings, but the patches or gum even out the peaks and troughs, so you can break the feedback cycle of cigarettes themselves.
Current research suggests a tapered NRT approach works best. You have to stop sometime, and the monster will still be there. But it will be a smaller monster.
Best wishes… Mr and Mrs Crispy.
Some poor b*stard is about to lose $10,000 after reading Overington’s blog:
http://news.ninemsn.com.au/article.aspx?id=306262
No doubting the power of Julia Gillard… just rein forcing the obvious!
hahahahhh Ashley@340
“…Some poor b*stard is about to lose $10,000 after reading Overington’s blog…”
I bet that was Overington herself
340 – That was probably Lloyd Williams sharing the love around on behalf of Howard and the guys. Of course, it may have been Rattus trying to get a bounce going. I’m interested to see that Lasseter’s thinks that one bet indicates the views of ‘punters’.
Can’t have the sound on for the debate – Hockey looks like he’s going to explode – head for the hills!
@340
Sure it wasn’t Dick Pratt trying to rebalance the odds and thank his boys again for keeping his a*se out of jail?
345 – Sadly, stealing a few hundred million from the people via cartel arrangements is not a criminal offence. Pratt was never in danger of going to jail. Costello said in 2005 that he would introduce criminal sanctions for this offence, but hasn’t done so.
YAY! He said it! Hockey said people on AWAs earn 96% more than those on other agreements.
Of course he failed to mention that means people earning $100,000 – $300,000.
Who gives a fig about people working at Woolies for $10.50 an hour.
I see that Hockey persists in attempting to sell rotten fish. Hasn’t it yet occurred to them that people hate workchances because they know someone who’s been screwed by AWAs? Obviously not …
@ 346 That was my point (the suggestion of a politically-orchestrated ‘convenient delay’). It was also, I grant you, a poorly delivered attempt at humour. (Thanks Peter Garrett, but I’ll take my lessons elsewhere from now …)
295-yes thats a very silly one that I have seen used to counter the ‘ 100% of marijuana smokers end up injecting heroin’ theory as 100 % of marijuana smokers started off on breast milk !
You can’t believe the Labor party … Gee Joe, you’re so convincing!
Someone said lies, damned lies and statistics.
The point about the milk and ciggies example is that statistics can be tortured for the desired polemical outcome.
Human beings have free will and decisions are made on “look” and “feel” too. How do you statistically measure the “birthday cake” or the “handshake” for that matter?
The election will be decided upon how much doubt or anxiety JWH can sow about KR and the team. End of story. That’s basically about 2-3% of the Labor primary vote we are talking about that needs to move for JWH to win. Everyone else is pretty much locked in.
I am of the view that JWH cant do it but anything is still possible with 2 weeks to go and Piers working away.
The coalition won’t be able to get traction that we are heading towards difficult times whilst the stock market remains so buoyant. Hopefully the bull run will continue for anothr few weeks.
umm did Hockey just say that Justice Giudice had people behind him and would fold to ‘union bosses’??
Joe’s banging on about the vision for full employment and self control of people’s lives. Apparently only the coalition can achieve these things. The ALP won’t invest in the future of your children.
Eddie at 352 said “Human beings have free will and decisions are made on “look” and “feel” too. ”
Sure they do, they also seem to make decisions on the basis of the interest rate level, but going further back on the basis of interest rates to disposable income – hip pocket stuff.
That can be measured.
Julia absolutely nailed it with her summary.
From Crikey:
The Daily Telegraph Editor David Penberthy writes: Re. “Tips and rumours” (yesterday, item 5). Crikey published: “The Daily Telegraph is sitting on a big story on Kevin Rudd that will make the Scores story seem irrelevant by comparison. The Tele will run with the story this Friday.” Can you please let us know what our story about Rudd is? We may need to put on extra staff.
Max
So, you really think the IR laws will have a positive effect, when you give 90% of power to the employer and 10% to employer – if you looked into it, you would find out how extreme and against ILO conventions some of them are? I find it incredible to think that going from a high income disparity to an extreme one, which will be the long term ramification is a positive ramification with all the increase crime and social dislocation.
A touch too Far? I think that’s understating things a bit……….there is a long way to the middle with this policy…if it was the opposite, with 10% of rights to employers, would you say the same thing?
And I would trust David Penberthy with my LIFE!
My last comment went into moderation so I’ll try again. Great opening speech from Julia, and I thought she looked on top of things all the way through.
Overington seems to have caved under all the vitriol on her blog site. She has just said that “Downer should have resigned over the AWB scandal”! This was in response to a blog commenting that if interest rates going up was good for the Ratking, AWB must have helped them too.
Nexus 6 @ 358:
Classic! Howard still screwed.
Everyone should read Gittins today. Especially those that crap on about “managing the economy” or, worse, “running” it. You know who you are.
The problem with all these polls and theoretic extrapolations is the MOE if the swing required is close to it i.e. 3-4%. If the polling indicates a TPP that is within the MOE + fluctuations bandwidth the final result could go either way. Put simply if Labor require about 51.5% to get over the line and the MOE is 3% polling that indicates 54.5% says line ball. Lets see what the interest rate brings in the way the chicken entrails fall.
75 [they can safely hammer home the danger in granting Krudd and his gang of idiots control of the economy.]
Only trouble with that theory is that the coalition have proven themselves to be poorer economic managers and there are twelve wasted years to prove it.
great opening speech from Julia!
358,
GOOD stuff
:) … now I feel much better. Wonder if he was prodded by my letter yesterday? 
There has been a lot of talk about the impact of interest rates on home mortgages, but what about the impact on those of us who run a business? I have borrowings of about $1 million to fund the family business-so that’s about $2,500 in extra costs the business has to find, due to this latest rate rise, and an increase in borrowing costs of about $25,000 since the bottom of the current interest rate cycle. Sure, there is a buffering effect from the tax system, but it is still a significant increase in business costs, which ultimately flows through to my family’s standard of living, and to the prices I charge my customers.
I’m astonished and angered by the comments of some the conservative commentators on this blog that this interest rate rise is somehow a good thing. They obviously don’t run a small business.
Will voting for Rudd change any of this? Of course not. Interest rates will most likely go up another 0.5% or so, then gradually fall over the next couple of years, as inflation falls and unemployment edges up to about 5%, regardless of who is in power. The government has little impact on the economy, but it’s worth noting that credible economic commentators like Gittins forecast that the big tax cuts in the last budget would add to upward pressure on interest rates.
The reality is that economic indicators like inflation, interest rates and unemployment, when viewed over a period of years, are completely independent of which party is in government, and there are simple statistical tools like regressions which prove that. But what really gives me the sh*ts about Howard and the current mob, apart from the disgusting racial and religious wedges he keeps using, is the constant lies and misrepresentation. This government is nothing but spin and marketing tactics-good riddance.
Bushfire Bill wrote
Yep, cold turkey is it.
Just keep telling yourself that smoking is slow-motion suicide.
Personal affidavit for E.F.T. – it does work.
http://www.emofree.com/articles.aspx?id=1
Madam Lash’s column in the GG reaches yet another new low. What a disgrace to suggest that Gillard as an unmarried, childless, militant lefty harpy is unfit for public office. Too bad for her that Gillard will be a heartbeat away from the top job after Nov 24.
Boy, Gillard’s sharp.
Made Buffy look a bit of a thicky.
Thanks Possum
A bit of a relief about Penberthy’s comment. Looks like no big scandal after all. It was probably just a Lib trying to scare us all, and maybe make Labor panic a bit.
The Labor vote is more solid than the Lib vote, with only 6% saying an even chance of voting for someone else, as against 8% who say the same for the Libs. This interest rate rise should definitely solidify the Labor vote. Labor has its own scare campaigns on Workchoices and nuclear power that it can run, and can also run on Howard’s lack of trustworthiness.
Your an economic determinist Possum of course you would believe that.
Can falling in love be statistically charted? Or can you chart when we will act against our “economic interests”?
Gillard is smart, energetic, cool, clear and calm.
Hockey is available for buck’s nights and 21sts.
Anyone think there’s much chance of Labor running attack ads against the government’s record on the environment and education?
There must be some pretty juicy quotes of Howard’s dissing climate change, and it’s not hard to show how they have screwed over the education system.
I would like to see Howard exposed on this, but I suspect Labor is going to hammer a different line. Sigh.
367 Sceptic,
If all the final polls say 54% or better, there is an absolutely minuscule chance of Labor only getting 51%. To have that happen really would mean that the polls were absolutely wrong.
Howard Hater @326, more rumors, please
Nexus 6
The Scores story already looks irrelevant: it still would
even if the Tele publish nothing about Rudd on Fri.
I hate to disappoint you, ESJ, but the official line from the Howard government is that the economy underpins everything.
Indeed, Greg Hunt said that on ABC774 Melbourne this morning while rabbiting on about how an interest rate rise would focus people’s attention on the superior economic skills of the Libs. This sounds to me like an argument for economic determinism par excellence. Yet, suddenly, when you don’t like the data and the statistical analysis thereof, you go all gooey and metaphysical. Please try to at least demonstrate some consistency!
376
I hesitate to start a conspiracy theory but if you were someone LOOKING for dirt, wouldn’t it be a neat idea to start a rumor like this and then wait to see what the blogosphere dredges up in response?
384 – Nuh.
Eddie at 377 said “Your an economic determinist Possum of course you would believe that.”
Its not the economic activity that determines anything,it’s the consistency of human behavioral reaction to those economic circumstances that explain a large chunk of voter movement like that.
You say,”Can falling in love be statistically charted? Or can you chart when we will act against our “economic interests”?”
Dont need to, that’s what makes up the variation that can’t be explained by other means.
Interesting lines out there.
I have a really whacky theory, but humour me here: interest rate rises will hurt the incumbent coalition government, who ran on the issue bigtime in 04.
So what happened re: Hockey vs Gillard?
ESJ: Sorry to be the grammar police, but you are a serial offender on this point and I can no longer resist. Your and you’re — watch out which one you’re using. My GF does it too and it drives me nuts.
ESJ 377 – the fact is that people do vote with their wallets. This interest rate rise will lock in for Labor those ‘battlers’ who might have been wavering.
Forget the dirt rumour, people. There wont be anything reported of the slightest interest to Mr and Mrs Punter.
This is the “ghost dance/ General Wenck kommt” phase of the liberal campaign. Rumours of magic bullets will abound; none will be true.
I have just had a thought, and would like to know what you think.
Financial institutions have for years now, offered fixed interest terms of up to 5 years.
People who fixed their rates say,2 years before the last election, have been able to fix in new rates up till today, and can look forward to no increase in repayments for a number of years.
People who have taken out loans since the last election and have fixed rates for 5 years are similarly blessed.
In both cases the rate rise will not affect them, and so therefore, would they bother to change their vote?
After all, should interest rates fall during the next coalition (horror thought) reign of terror, they are no worse off. And how many of them are there, most I would have thought.
It is only people who are now taking out mortgages, and those who have not fixed their rates, who are affected by the rate hike.
Just a thought.
Lefty – you might be on to something.
RGee – Julia carved him into bite sized peices, which seh very sensibly left for a rat to chew on.
She ended up by holding a copy of the Libs 2004 IR policy, and enunciated a list of things that weren’t contained in that policy. Suffice to say, Joe was squirming.
Joe’s line, BTW, was that you can’t trust Labor. Indeed, Labor cannot be trusted. And finally, Labor is untrustworthy.
I dont believe its necessary to have apostrophes or commas on blogs Ashley English is a living language after all.
ESJ – on lies and statistics, this is one of the earliest quotes from (1892) by Sir Robert Giffen, three years before the famous Disraeli quote repeated by Mark Twain.
So there.
NoSmoke, I have a good idea.
What they do is, they make every 10,000th cigarette explosive. Just enough to kill the user.
That way smokers get to enjoy the risk, and it saves billions on health care
@ 378 For an extra fee he’ll bring along his little troupe of sad clowns (Ruddock, Andrews, Downer and Pyne) so that they can be lashed to lamposts, deprived of their trousers and sprayed with soy sauce etc.
Kerr’s got it right on Crikey.
Boil the Rattite economic rhetoric down and its “Vote for me and I’ll keep your wages down”.
Another rolled-gold classic stuffup from the post-Sinodinis school of “How to lose a federal election”.
“Hockey is available for buck’s nights and 21sts.”
Hey I wouldn’t mind Hockey entertaining at a party of mine – he’s been an absolute hoot this year.
Will, it’s true that those with fixed rate mortgages will not suffer as those with floating rates do – but about 80% of Australians have floating rates….
You may all whinge about ‘The Australian’. But have you realised that you have all provided it with copy?
Read the article HERE
P.S. Apoligies if someone already mentioned this. This blog has hundreds of comments within a minute!
Will – I’m sure that Rates Analyst or someone else will correct me, but opting for fixed rates means you’re betting the bank on the way rates will go, and how fast, and also means you pay a premium for the privilege. Generally, you pay a fatter total interest bill over the period of the fix, although you don’t have to find extra money when rates rise. I don’t know what proportion of loans are fixed, but generally you’ll do better by sitting on a variable rate, over the medium to longer term. It’s about the price the bank has to pay for its money, and that’s got likely rate rises factored in to it. The banks generally have a better idea of the doirection of rates than average punters.
Anyway, as someone said, the rate rises that really hurt are the credit card rates!
Yeah, but you’re managing to slowly kill it.
379 Ashley,
They don’t need to run too many attack ads as they are way ahead in the polls. It is proven that the electorate doesn’t like negative campaigning. If they highlight the areas you are talking about though in ads, you are much more likely to see the neutral type ads of “Rudd appearing in his office” or outside in a natural enviroment OR the types of IR ads that are running now using real people.
It is important to portray the message in as neutral and/or positive fashion as they can.
Who’s “Ashley English”? There’s an Ashley here, but no “Ashley English”.
Anyway, why does the ALP need attack ads? Joe Hockey and co are fulfilling that role perfectly!
Guido @410…
Pessimism of the left? What? I’m planning a party!
“I don’t know what proportion of loans are fixed, but generally you’ll do better by sitting on a variable rate”.
About 60% are currently fixed and 40% variable. Brokers are favour fixed rates by quite a margin at the moment.
Re CL at 402
Exactly correct. The fixed rate you pay is the sum total of all the expected forward rates. These generally are higher than the realised actual rates. It’s called forward rate bias.
If you fix you are essentially betting with the bank about the direction of rates and paying a premium to do so – but it’s really better to think of it as a from of insurance. You protect yourself from really bad outcomes by settling for a slightly worse outcome than average.
Just like in insurance where you pay money which, on average, you don’t get back.
RA – gee, I’m glad I remembered something from that economics degree!
ESJ,
Well with love, a high interest rate is very important. However, the qualitative and quantitative results are measured in different ways. Economics can come in to it, but not if you select your investments wisely.
It is sometimes better to rent Governments rather than buy. However, it is generally agreed you get well and truly screwed by this Howard Liberal Government
408 El Nino,
That’s a surprise to me. I would have thought Austrlia had much more floating rates. Are they percentages of new business or of outstanding loans?
Ralph Says:
November 7th, 2007 at 11:42 am
I think Rudd wants to win the election, he seems to understand the goal is to get more than 50% of the votes. He doesn’t seem to be interested in making 20% feel real good.
I suspect a good election campaign is one where the party provides are blank canvas that the voter paints enough of their views to be happy with the offering.
If you take this view, then policies are out as a dirt campaigns directed against people the electorate may have an opinion on. Pretty much leaves spending commitments that can be ignored when you get into power and realize Costello didn’t get the budget right.
Well, people say they don’t like it.
But that doesn’t mean it isn’t effective. The interest rate scare in 2004 was highly effective, even if people disapproved of the government running negative ads.
The problem with not running negative ads is that some idiots come to the conclusion that the government hasn’t done anything wrong on climate change, for example. Anyone who was switched on wouldn’t need to be reminded, but people who haven’t been paying attention are easily taken in by government rhetoric 2 weeks before an election.
The line that Howard has been spouting, that Rudd has “me-tooed” him on climate change is particularly offensive. But you’ll find that a lot of ignorant people agree with him because the ALP hasn’t cut through with a message that Howard has been sitting on his hands.
Howard has said “sorry” for the rate rise.
http://www.theage.com.au/news/federal-election-2007-news/pm-sorry-for-rates-rise/2007/11/07/1194329272454.html
According to his theory of when using “sorry” is approrpiate, he must be directly responsible for the interest rate rise, else he wouldn’t of used that word.
Continuing my point from 414, how many average joes realise that the government refused to set up an emission trading scheme for years, before finally backflipping half way through the year. Very few voters are informed enough to recognise the two-faced position of the government when they trumpet the fact that they are setting up an emissions trading scheme (which won’t start till 2012!).
Just went past a Liberal office in Oakleigh Melbourne. Not one picture of John Howard, and the candidate is there to save our community!
Rates – yes, the banks have much more info about likely movements than the average borrower. Fixing sounds good as insurance but you can bet that the bank is not going to give up a cent of interest along the way.
Agree with Ashley. Rudd should run some positive ads with negative press headlines in the background. “Howard continues support for paedophile-sympathiser Hollingworth”, “150000 dead Iraqi civilians since war started”, “Haneef cleared:Howard locks him up”. I’m sure you can come up with some more.
Yeah, bugger pessimism. What a yawn.
Rodent will lose this election, and it wont be close either. Conceded on the night.
Schedule your parties, and enjoy the abject humiliation of the MSM commentariat who have walked backwards – huddled together, for warmth, chattering inanely as a herd – off a cliff; having ignored the large flashing neon “Warning: Cliff ahead” signs they’ve been reading for the past 12 months.
It will be a victory of the bleeding obvious over the arcane “poll-owning” feel-it-in-me-waters folkways of the GG.
Oh look, all those polls were telling us something after all. Who knew.
Still some debate over whether the electorate wants to thump 5 or 6 types of piss out of Team Rodent, yes (im personally with 5, viz, 85 seats to ALP); but it aint one or two!
ShowOn@415, nice deduction.
of topic… and i asked thi slast night but no one had an answer.
On election night, each party has a HQ in each electorate… like the local hall etc. can anyone cruise along and poke their head in? Or is invite only for the party people and volunteers etc.
I live in Rudd’s electorate and know where he normally has his election night HQ, and woudl love to walk the three blocks to watch him delier his acceptance speech. (If the ALP win of course!)
Any have an idea?
“It is proven that the electorate doesn’t like negative campaigning.”
They say the don’t like negative campaigning.
But political parties use it all the time. Why? Because it works.
Shows On
Howard will have annoyed the RBA with these statements:
Mr Howard said the RBA’s statement that high levels of investment were adding to investment capacity gave lie to Labor claims that high inflation was due to capacity constraints caused by under-investment in infrastructure.
“(It) couldn’t be more wrong,” he said.
“All the signs are is that investment in infrastructure is growing apace … and (may) be one of the things adding to inflationary pressure in the economy.”
What the RBA really said about ivnestment was:
…”and high levels of investment are adding to productive capacity in some sectors.”
I would suggest that Government spending in infratructure is NOT one of those sectors.
Middle man, I can’t give you an answer. But I reckon if you emailed them you’d probably be able to buy yourself a ticket with some letterboxing.
Labor may have lost 1-2% of their TPP preferred vote based on polls since the campaign got underway. But even that is debatable as no real trend has emerged. Whatever they are doing seems to be paying off, so I reckon they should just stick with their game plan.
I have been quite surprised about the lack of advertising. Even the ACTU ads appear kind of half hearted given they are so infrequent. They say that swinging voters decide in the last 2 weeks of the campaign (whether thats true or not), so I suspect that the ALP will start revving up their engines real soon.
Re negative advertising. Perhaps Howard should go around saying not to vote for him.
Guy from Anglicare on news radio just now saying that interest rates rises are passed on ‘quite quickly’ to rent rises.
ShowsOn 415
Yes, Howard has a quite “confused” view on what he means by “sorry” at present. When people tell him to say sorry he says he is not responsible, yet just yesterday he said that he wasn’t responsible for interest rates, but now he is sorry anyway? What a strange little man.
Perhaps he is like the little boy caught out for cheating on his economics exam. If he says sorry often enough he hopes the teacher will not punish him? Or maybe he is sorry for himself – sorry he’s been caught lying.
Besides, Howard shouldn’t worry about interest rates. He won’t feel a thing personally. After all, he lives in Kirribilli, a multi-million dollar mansion on Sydney Harbour, rent free at our expense. Nothing to be sorry about at all.
one more time Rudd has been caught “me-tooing” with Howard: he cuddled the same baby that Howard did before
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2007/11/07/woz107.xml
“…John Howard and Kevin Rudd visited the same shopping centre north of Sydney within an hour of each other. Both were pictured cuddling 14-month old Austin Byrnes, whose bemused mother said she was surprised to bump into the two leaders while doing her weekly shop….”
hahahahhh
and as always, Rudd has the upper hand: the mother’s baby said she’ll likely vote for Rudd.
Guido @ 401,
The GG really has some gall to run that piece. Especially this bit:
“The Australian’s analysis of the result is always wrong.”
That’s because it, um, is.
Ashley @ 416
Most people have a go a governments, Liberal or Labor, for comming up with their policies only just before an election and doing little throughout the rest of the term. What people need to remember is that the policies are released at this stage so that people can vote on them. The party with the best policies should win (this does not always happen). It is undemocratic for a party to implement policies that have not been voted on. Just look at work choices.
yes but these are white people socrates, of course he says sorry.
From Crikey today:
The Daily Telegraph Editor David Penberthy writes: Re. “Tips and rumours” (yesterday, item 5). Crikey published: “The Daily Telegraph is sitting on a big story on Kevin Rudd that will make the Scores story seem irrelevant by comparison. The Tele will run with the story this Friday.” Can you please let us know what our story about Rudd is? We may need to put on extra staff.
Mmmm… looks like it was BS
394 Edward StJohn. That’s very interesting coming from a Liberal, as we continually hear from your side of politics about the bad spelling coming out of school leavers. Does that mean one standard for you and a different one for everyone else?
So who won the debate, Julia or Joe? As if I didn’t know.
Howard did not say, “Sorry” for the rate rise. He said sorry about the rate rise.
As in, “I’m sorry your dog got run over, but can you hose the footpath down please?”
Alternative interpretation: I BET HE’S EFFING SORRY! (He’s going to be even sorrier)
Did I just hear an election campaign starting gun? Rudd said in his interview he was about to, up the tempo, of the campaign.
You call that sorry. I’ll show you sorry!
415
Did he say sorry Jim?
Another thing about “Sorry John” – this is the sixth interest rate rise in a row, but I don’t recall him personally saying sorry for the other five. Why now? Was there something that made him feel specially guilty about this one? I’m sure its not just the timing. After all, Sorry John realy cares about the nation, not just his survival.
Pathological Logic @ 431
Take that article as very much a backhanded compliment.
I’m sure they are keeping an eye on the increasing post counts and site traffic and realising that The Poll Bludger is fast becoming the Yang to the Oz’s Yin.
Like good Howardists, the Oz’s response is to try and destroy the opposition’s credibility with a smear campaign.
Thanks Pancho.
412 – that is whole book but might be slightly biased towards new business – it is a back-of-the-enveope number. I believe new business might be running at an even higher proportion.
Samuel K, thanks for passing that on. I have a work deadline that has been horribly due for the past 2 days, and I haven’t got ANY work done since that “tip” first arose for discussion here on PB.
I’m finally starting to be optimistic about this election.
Hey William, Possum – given this interest by the Oz and others, have either of you received offers to go over to the dark side?
The liberals last defence – the sleeping pill. I’m rather surprised i haven’t heard Andrew Robb on the airwaves today. or mean Andrew ‘the sleeping pill’ Robb.
Uh – it’s official. Black is now white:
Rate rise proof of good management: Costello
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/11/07/2084177.htm
Why is it that the rodent always get elected because of a lie? First Tampa/children overboard, then interest rates? There’s just got be another huge smear/lie/scare story coming. Its his only tactic.
Pancho @ 446: I heard that PollBludger will soon be acquired by google.
447 – Robb was on the radio this morning on RN, rabbiting on about responsible economic management.
When the bounce occurs for Rudd from this interest rate rise he should go for the jugular. Kck him when he’s down. I’m serious.
As I’ve said before spend evey cent there is on advertising and marketing and borrow to the hilt and then spend that (okay, may not be the best idea with the interest rate rise). But my point is get the message out there till it hurts.
I’m predicting a close one but it would be Kevin Heaven if they could get a buffer for 3 terms.
429
Socrates
I agree with you that Howard (and for that matter Costellos) messages are coming across as confused. Maybe this is a deliberate ploy. Nothing the govt. has done in the last 6 months has “cut through” to the electorate. So maybe they are saying if we can’t “cut through” then make it so no-one else can.
453 – what, confuse the opposition to death? I guess it makes as much sense as anything else they’ve tried. Perhaps if they ran away it would confuse them even more? (As brave Sir Robin said).
I saw Rudd’s press conference in its entireity on Sky this arvo: he looked bloody angry.
New ad: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z1Qt_D2OU7k
Bill – was this ‘good’ angry or ‘bad’ angry?
452 – there’s no such thing as a 3 term buffer – people were saying howard had a 2 or 3 term buffer after 2004, and look where we are…
CL @ 448. Labor should spin this as the ‘Rate Rise Australia had to Have’
CL de F, it was “I’m sick of the way these b**tards have been b*llshitting the Australian prople. And now I’m goona do something about it.”
Stern, determined angry.
The Cold Rage.
Its funny that the Australian scours poll bludger. I have stopped reading their own rag because Shanahan and co are so biased it is an embarrassement to journalism. Maybe they are looking for fresh ideas.
I say this as someone who regards themselves as neutral. Despite the Oz’s assumption about people who post here, I am not a member of any party, and in fact haven’t given my primary vote to either major party in ten years. I just want to see an end to Howard, like anyone who is not congenitally Liberal-voting. I suspect many who post here are not aligned to Labor.
The Oz seems to have trouble understanding those they see as their opponents. Because they are incapable of honest self-examination, they assume their own views are flawless, and therefore that any opponent must be some kind of loon. Those who they have demonised most are those who regard themselves as progressive, and whom they label leftists (even when we might be economically conservative!). The mere fact that they talk about “culture wars” shows how narrow, combative and black-and-white is the way they see the world. Alternative viewpoints? Nonsense! We are the Oz so we are right! They are not clever.
Paladin – they don’t have to, it seems Costello is doing that for them. Joe is only the tip of the buffoonery iceberg. I suspect we’re about to see a buffoon onslaught such as has never before been witnessed in this country (well, since Bill McMahon, anyway).
Wow! That ad is a biter. With underlying Jaws music too.
Sorry, that should have been Billy McMahon (as in goat).
Diogenes (449), as far as the current lie – that increasing interest rates are proof of the Govt’s superior economic management – well, that’s all Howard’s got left. What else can he say? “Yeah, we suck, it’s a fair cop”? Course not. But his saying it doesn’t equate to people buying it. Not this time. Apart from anything else this message is all over the place. It’s not nice and simple, like “boat people are terrorists”. I’d love to be a fly on the wall of Liberal Party HQ to see the gloom and despondency.
Anyone got a view on the outcome of the Gillard-Hockey debate??
CL de Footscray @ 448
“…Rate rise proof of good management: Costello”
huhhh?!? is it so true? then why team Howard-Costello has been tirelessly hammering Hawk/Keating 17% interest rate? After all, along the line of Costello’s argument, 17% interest rate was necessary to keep the inflation go through the roof
Sorry Costello, you can’t have it both ways.
Great blog..
http://blogs.theage.com.au/koutsoukis/
Bill, that would be about the right tone, I suspect! Without the Tony Abbott words, of course!
Sound economic Managers…..I want my money back!
I think Costello’s remark is the final nail in the thin veneer that was his credibility. As Keating said “the world’s laziest treasurer”.
448
CL de Footscray Says:
November 7th, 2007 at 2:45 pm
Uh – it’s official. Black is now white:
Rate rise proof of good management: Costello
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/11/07/2084177.htm
Well if Costello is right, then Robert Mugabe must be the greatest economic manager in the world! He has inflation rates of thousands of percent! is that what Costello aspires to?
Gillard-Hockey:
Hockey’s line was that you can’t trust Labor, seeing as how they’re all unionists and don’t know how to run a small business. Things are turning to s$#t out there and you need a steady hand at the wheel. Also, under the libs, wage rises will be ’sustainable’, but under labor there’ll be a wages break-out. Also, you can’t trust Labor. Under the coalition policy, people on AWAs get 94% more than people under awards. And Labor cannot be trusted.
Gillard: Labor will reintroduce a system that provides reasonable checks and balances and will invite the current head of the IRC (Giudice J.) to head the new Commission they’re establishing. She repeated key ALP policy. She pointed out that people in some sectors (retail, hospitality) have little bargaining power and have been sc$#@ed by WorkChoices. She also pointed out that the Libs 2004 IR policy didn’t mention any of the WoirkChoices stuff.
Score: Julia by several lengths of the straight. Joe looked miserable and unhappy. Julia looked energetic, sensible, calm and cool.
Rattus Rattus will be sorry the Liberals lost the election, it won’t be his fault!
Yes Socrates, perhaps Janet A will ask him over dinner if that’s his aspirational model these days?
CL, I didn’t actually see that debate. I heard it on the radio. Both of them sounded much the same, but on content, Gillard absolutely wiped the floor with him. About the only untruth she didn’t take apart was the 70% bit. Was that beneath contempt perhaps?
Now will the press report that Hockey got taken to task for bullshitting, or not?
CL de F (472), thanks for the match report. I particularly like that novel line of Hockey’s about not trusting Labor.
mad cow – i watched it on line (how desperate is that?) and my impression was that the press actually feel a bit for Hockey. Will they take him apart – I doubt it, but they can hardly score this as a win for the government. They’ll probably say it was a draw, which means a win for Gillard and the ALP. Julia was very calm and confident after a slightly nervous start, but Hockey was just blustering and stuck on the untrustworthiness of the ALP. At the end, when Julia held up the Libs 2004 IR policy and went through the things that WEREN’T in it, Hockey looked like he wanted to crawl into a hole somewhere and hide. She wiped the floor with him, and didn’t resort to any scaremongering at all (apart from suggesting that the Libs would extend WorkChances if re-elected). Which Hockey was almost supporting, given that under the libs wages growth will be sustainable. In other words, there won’t be any.
450
Ashley Says:
November 7th, 2007 at 2:45 pm
Pancho @ 446: I heard that PollBludger will soon be acquired by google.
….
other way around, ashley: bludging has a big premium on it these days and william will soon rule the world
478 – Maybe William ought to bid for the Oz after the election? It should be going cheap.
Julia Gillard ripped Hockey’s arguments to shreds – provided facts, figures and examples for every attack on WorkChoices.
I will never arbitrarily condemn her again. I do pity Hockey – he was stuck trying to defend the indefensible, and did a fairly good job of it – but not good enough.
You should see the News.com spin of it here
http://blogs.news.com.au/news/news/index.php/news/comments/great_debate_iv_joe_hockey_vs_julia_gillard/ , and the ABC feed here: http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/11/07/2084142.htm
I wonder why news.com provided their so-helpful “analysis” of the debate (one which just happened to declare Hockey the ‘winner’), but not a feed so that people could make up their own minds. Could it be due to the institutional determination of NL to never, ever simply provide the facts and let people make up their own minds? Maybe.
Anyone hear Joe Hockey in the debate something about bricklayers wages in Rockhampton he said “75 grand a year thats a thousand bucks a day” ???? wtf? so where are the brickies that only work 2 and half months a year?
I detect something dark going on in the Liberal camp.Two of there attack dogs,Abbot and Hockey have given atrocious performances at the Press Club in the last week, looking “agenda light” and uncomfortable.And of course Costello putting a positive spin on rising interest rates. Are they imploding? I hope so.
Apparently JWH told Steve Price just prior to the 2004 election that “he’d keep interest rates at record lows … but once we get in we’ll just change it all”.
You could watch the debate via News, although the ABC feed was better quality. What a load of tripe that News commentary is (MC @ 480). there is no doubt that JG cleaned Hockey up.
Gillard got Hockey good on the government not responsible for employment thing.
CL, is there a transcript lurking for that debate?
Thing is, earlier on I could have sworn I heard Hockey talking about ‘more valuable’ and ‘less valuable’ positions. In other words, code for the Liberal ’self reliance’ philosophy that goes something like “if you’re poor, that’s your fault”. Or “who cares if your job is wage slavery, you could choose to have a better job, surely?”
Kinda reminds me of an interview with the creators of South Park.
When asked why Kenny always has to die, they reply..
“cos he’s poor”
481 – he said apprentice bricklayers in Rocky get $75k. Tradesmen get $1000 or more a day. Imagine if that were repeated down south? The spin was that the govt policies will prevent wages going up. Excellent. Interest rates will rise under the libs and we’ll make sure your wages don’t go up as well. Vote for us, we’re complete f$#kwits
The GG seems to have discovered the dangers of the about to be elected Rudd government with its centrist tendencies.(A bad day at the press).And those left left blogs! However this speech of Julia Gilliard’s with its very ‘whitlamesque’ ideas for the formation of a Ministry was given at the Sydney Institute in March 06.The GG apparently sees a Rudd government as little short of a one man band…..a peculiar interpretation. I can’t imagine Julia G or W Swan or Lindsay Tanner or even Kevin Rudd putting up with that.
Lefty E @ 387
Sounds like a pretty out there kinda theory mate. All the experts at the Gazette seem to saying the exact opposite. Care to elaborate on this crazy idea? Any evidence to support it? You know charts showing Labor’s vote going up after a rate rise or something like that?
Will @ 392
Your problem there old bean is that so many of Howard’s ‘battlers’ took him at his word about low interest rates and so didn’t fix. You have to pay a premium to fix – why pay more if the economic genius PM is saying rates are staying low? But keep having thoughts mate – you may end up concluding that someone who so often says things that turn out to completely incorrect is in fact a serial liar.
mad cow, sorry haven’t seen a transcript yet. The ABC will probably have it as a vodcast or something, and they may transcribe it. Didn’t notice the bit you refer to – had to be productively engaged at some moments of the thing … as indeed I do now! Moo.
Joe Hockey, like all Tories, are of the view that there is an intrinsic link between how hard you work and how much you get paid.
Except for lawyers of course
Wow, I was overseas for a week – just got back and found out Howard’s totally nicked the ALP policy on GP centres at public hospitals.
its just ‘me-too’ all day long out there. Party convergence, live to air!
Some interesting reaction from the banks:
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22718274-12377,00.html
David Barnett, this is just a hoot! I am now quite prepared to sit back, relax and enjoy the greatest 2 1/2 weeks of conservative melt down ever seen on the planet, the government is going to be defeated and we all must not forget that this will be a time to be treasured and recounted unto further generations. It will be ugly, it will be bloody and Christ it will be fun!!! If today is any example Rome burning will be mere embroidery compared to the whole stinking edifice of austrlaia’s conservative structure collapsing.
http://www.abc.net.au/unleashed/stories/s2083776.htm
Labor has timed either their mailouts *or* their letterboxing to get in sync with the IR debate today. In my postbox was a handout trashing IR policies ……. and this is a safe Labor neighborhood, so I am sure that marginals and Lib held seats probably have seen similar today too. Anyone else get anti IR stuff in the mailbox today?
Jude, thanks for that.
An interesting background issue – I’ve been waiting to see when it would raise it’s ugly head.
Thanks Guido, I hadn’t seen that.
ND@491
I think you must mean: That for Tories, There is an inverse relationship between work hours & effort and pay. The less productive they – are the more they earn. Let’s face it – what the hell does Hockey do?
Seems fair, why shouldn’t we sacrifice our wages to increase business profits so they can invest in China?
WorkChoices is based on Howard’s rationale that since we have to compete with low paid foreign workers we should make ourselves poor. He wont be happy until we are on $2 a day and can export chopsticks to China.
GST, WorkChoices and Inflation – Government’s plan to take money away with three hands.
I think one of the biggest incongruencies in the attack by the wider right wing of Oz politics is the characterisation of Gillard as a liability for the ALP. She’s the best media performer the Labor team has, Rudd included.
Ratsak, I did fix my mortgage, and recommended to my children as well to do so, and I pointed out the pitfalls of not doing so. You see, I used to work for a bank, in lending, and knew how it worked.
I also knew that we have a lying little scumbag in charge of this country, so could not afford the chance of a spike in rates, and was therefore prepared to pay the extra .15% premium. But I take your point.
My point however, was that if the bulk of borrowers have locked in their mortgage for some years, would they be particularly concerned with this rise and therefor vote ALP?
I feel that it’s the credibility factor here that may come into play for those who have locked-in rates.
But I do enjoy this site immensely, although my wife thinksI have better things to do.
DP #500
Gillard has two liabilities regarding her public image.
1. Gillard is very publicly from the Socialist Left faction of the ALP. Due to JWH’s successful demonising of the left wing of politics, this will negatively influence perceptions of her.
2. While she is articulate and intelligent, her voice is a liability in politics, where appearances count above all else.
Other than these, she is indeed a positive for the ALP.
The liberal party (and the Nats) must be furious at Howard for holding off calling the election – especially Costello. Hahahaha.
StanS, thanks for that link to the past. I haven’t heard anything as funny as that since I heard Billy Wentworth argue that we needed to stay close to Britain to remain protected by the British nuclear umbrella. Maybe DB is channelling the spirit of Billy?
Apparently the Lib slogan is no longer Going for Growth. I think we should have a competition to come up with a new one. My entry is ‘Apocalypse NOW’
StanS, that’s great.
Kevin Rudd is a metrosexual… so take THAT!
What a droid.
Or maybe, apres moi, le deluge
# 503 Deo Says: November 7th, 2007 at 3:41 pm
’twas madness, and I said it at the time. Taking a chance with an interest rate rise two and a half weeks out from an election.
The way the conservatives have run this campaign is amazing. Time after time they’ve wrong-footed themselves. At every opportunity they’ve given the ball back to the ALP to have another whack. I can’t believe how badly they’ve run their campaign, when compared to previous ones.
The mind boggles.
Its a bit pithy but as they say it will cut through…the new Liberal slogan is………WE ARE F@#KED
Matthew Cole at 502, if appearances count above all else in politics how do you account for Downer, Ruddock and Abbott?
StanS
I hope that’s part of the “satire” part of the site.
The first line is
“The second federal election of the 21st century is like no other in Australian history. We are heading towards a change of government for the sake of change, and for no other discernable reason.”
Ummm, Count with me here, 2001, 2004, 2007….
Bushfire Bill, good on you! seriously, in terms of physical side-effects you’re over the worst of it – but the cravings will continue… I related it to the ‘phantom-limb’ phenomonon…
I stopped smokin around 70 days ago… I’m still counting everyday, got a tally on the fridge! I found the following site very handy, especially regarding the physiological aspect. I read through articles 3 or 4 times a day for the first 10 days or so. (Just ignore the more ‘evangelical’ (not in the christian sense) elements of the site!).
I was on about 45 a day. It’s good – you’ll start feeling seriously better in a couple of days.
http://www.whyquit.com/
Good on you!
No Deo (504), they were playing to their strengths by factoring in a rate rise just before the elction – at least, that appears to be the gist of the current line, as delivered by Costello and pushed by Overington.
Mr D #510,
It’s quite simple – they present the image of conservative old men. For reasons beyond my ability to understand, Australia seems to have a love affair with that kind of person. Look at what Vanstone was put through, for being a woman daring to assume a man’s natural seat of power. Never liked her policies, but that’s neither here nor there.
I agree with Pi @ 508. I commented to someone yesterday that this has to be the worst campaign run by the Libs in living memory. He wisely retorted “it will be if they lose”.
New slogan … “stay brave and true”
I disagree Dinsdale Piranha #501.I think Nicola Roxon is the ALP’s consumate performer,especially with Tony Abbot.Julia comes a close second. LOL
Damien #515,
Maybe the Libs realise that this may well be an election that they want to lose, given the increasing possibility of a world recession – whoever’s in power will get blamed for the effects in Austrlaia, regardless of the true level of culpability.
Tomorrow we have some sanity intruding into the election campaign. The cricket is back!!
:) ….. Lunchbreak for tomorrow is 1:00 to 1:30. That means only 30 minutes of channel switching with the first half of tomorrow’s debate ….. If Australia are going to do anything major in the first session tomorrow, I would appreciate it if they could arrange it happen not in the last 30 minutes before lunch 
…….
Kina
Further to your point at 499 re workers sacrificing pay for business profits. The libs are on to this kind of logic as a means of selling workchoices!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yxKjNos-UVA&eurl=http://www.roadtosurfdom.com/
511 – my favourite is the bit about Al Q$#da barracking for Rudd. I’m sure they’re watching the poll results from the bunker in the hills with their somewhat superior wireless broadband access and making strategic decisions about when to intervene.
Don’t worry Julie it will be raining in BrisVegas tomorrow
I responded to this earlier on. This is certainly not an election to lose… it is one of the best ones to win.
# 518 Mathew Cole Says: November 7th, 2007 at 3:56 pm Damien #515,
That’s just not the case. In spite of the global outlook for inflation, the fact remains that Australia has resources that other countries want, and could only dream of having, and they are going to need to pay for access to them. So higher interest rates means a higher dollar, more money for investment in the country, and cheaper imports. I truly feel for our farmers, as they are the hardest hit by a high dollar. But even the prices for their products are sky-rocketing.
The reforms of the late-80’s and early-90’s have stood us well. We now have a huge economy, and our biggest challenges are education, and the infrastructure to deliver resources. We also need more education and skills development so that the products we sell are value-added, something our existing government has been woefully bad at. These are exactly the things that Labor governments are good at.
Unlike the last time Howard was in power, at least he hasn’t completely ruined the economy. The GST, the last real policy that the government actually implemented, is also good for our economy too, regardless of the method in which it was implemented.
We have about nine wasted years, and some problems that need to be fixed. But just about every government in the world would gladly trade economic conditions with Australia.
204 Alex McDonnel Says: November 7th, 2007 at 11:14 am
Many experts are US-Centric, and I’m the first to admit that Americas economy is in BIG trouble. But that does not hold the same gravitas that it did even 10 years ago. Europe, China, and India are booming along, and that is not going to change. The biggest untapped market for consumers are in those countries, not America.
There are literally a hundred million new chinese and indian people that want to buy a car and furnish their house that didn’t exist 10 years ago. They’re educated, mobile, and are earning wages that are getting on par with western countries, especially in IT and other education intensive fields.
And to build those cars and furnish those houses, they need steel, and they need energy. Add on to that the explosive growth that is about to occur in the industry of green-energy production, and the inevitable replacement of all of those cars that run on petrol that will head north of $150 a barrel, and you have all of the markets that Australia is uniquely able to capitalize upon.
But to do that, we need LOTS more money spent on education. Higher education and skills-based education. All of which is going to be paid for by the continuing resources boom. You think our surpluses are big now? I’d be very surprised if our government doesn’t have an extra 20 billion a year to play with next year in the budget than they did this year.
Australia is in a VERY good position, in spite of nine wasted years. We wouldn’t want to put it off any longer, but with good policy based around education, infrastructure, and building a renewable energy industry, we’re going to be in an even better position in 10 years.
Look I have to say that the Overington piece is one of the funniest things I’ve read in ages, but no where near as funny as the replies on her blog.
She has been absolutely panned, and it’s interesting the mods have let it all through.
Gold.
Rudd’s response: http://www.abc.net.au/news/video/2007/11/07/2084436.htm?site=elections/federal/2007
Caroline Overington is having a good time defending her opinion on her blog. It’s quite amusing. Her most common line is “please don’t swear on the blog…”
Hot off the press, the latest Reuters poll trend:
“Australia’s conservative government has clawed back some voter support but remains well behind the centre-left Labor Party midway through a six-week election campaign, the latest Reuters Poll Trend has found.
With just over two weeks to go in the campaign, Howard’s government trailed Labor by 9.7 points on a two-party basis.Labor support was 54.8 percent, while Liberal/National Party coalition government support was 45.2 percent, up 1.4 points over the past fortnight.
If the result was carried through to polling day, the government would overwhelmingly lose office and Howard and several ministers could lose their seats.
Opposition leader Kevin Rudd, 50, has led every opinion poll since he was elected Labor’s leader in December 2006.
The November Poll Trend result is Howard’s best since early August, when he pegged back Labor’s lead to 8.9 percent, although his comeback stalled when Australia’s central bank lifted interest rates in August.
The central bank lifted interest rates by 0.25 points on Wednesday, the sixth increase since Howard won the 2004 election with a promise to keep rates low.
The Reuters Poll Trend is an analysis of the three main polls – Newspoll, published in The Australian newspaper, ACNielsen, published in the Sydney Morning Herald and Age newspapers, and the Morgan Poll, published on line.”
On negative ads: in Western Vic TV the ACTU are continuing with their ‘Real People’ interviews/comments. The most regularly used one at present is the Lobethal (Adelaide Hills) meat workers who were seriously disadvantaged by a wage & allowance cut (amounting to $70-$80 per week) ruled as ‘legal’ by the authority. Lobethal would probably be in Dolly’s electorate of Mayo – so there may still be hope of him struggling.
Bushfire: I’d agree cold turkey is the most lasting, but it is damned hard for the first month. I did it on 13th September 1987, and am still going strong. Mind you, at my earlier attempt two weeks prior, I lasted about 3 hours! The Sanitarium (7th Day Adventist) crowd years ago used to have a sort of ‘detox’ program for smoking cures, where you’d be hospitalised at Wahroonga. The main ingredient, so I was told, was plenty of water intake.
The theory was that this water intake gradually eliminated the nicotine in the bloodstream. Once the body was cleansed of that, you lost the craving. I sort of adapted that to my home cure, and I’m sure there was something in it. After the craving’s gone, all that’s left is the habit. I was so used to having a fag in my mouth that I went around sucking pens for a fair while. Chewing gum is probably better. I like some of the suggestions mentioned here of physical exercise. I didn’t use it at the time, but wish that I had. Best of luck and stick at it.
AND, also newly minted, the Reuters interest rate poll of economists:
SYDNEY, Nov 7 (Reuters) – Australia’s latest interest rate
hike is not likely to be enough to slow the economy and tame
inflation, say analysts, meaning at least one more tightening is
on the cards perhaps as soon as December.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) on Wednesday lifted its
key cash rate 25 basis points to an 11-year high of 6.75 percent,
but warned that inflation would still break above its 2 to 3
percent comfort zone in the next couple of quarters.
RBA Governor Glenn Stevens drove home the point by saying the
economy would have to slow to contain price pressures, leaving
analysts with little doubt that he intended to tighten again.
A Reuters poll of 21 economists taken after the decision
found no less than 20 believed rates would have to rise to 7.0
percent, and seven saw them going even higher.
Oh, Bushfire Bill, one further thought. What kicked me into action over the smoking was reading the Howard bio… apparently the Mr. Howard used to be a smoker. He quit so… I know, primitive how high can you widdle stuff but… it helped me…
Go for Growth has been replaced by a flag.
http://petermartin.blogspot.com/
I love Julia’s accent – it is bloody AUSTRALIAN. I heard her accent in the UK a few weeks ago (on a news site) and smiled to myself. She reminded me of home.
Go girl – you are a star. Should we sound like those ponces Downer and Pyne Matthew Cole???
522,
Ruawake, will it wash out the whole day, first session, delay the start? What is your guess?
Weatherzone.com says this – “Cloudy with a few showers about. Moderate SE winds. ” To me that says “probably starts on time but at any rate, minor delays possible during the day, certainly the whole day not washed out”.
??
:)
A further thought on GG journalists trawling through Poll Bludger when they are short of ideas: I had assumed that right-wing-nut trolling types like Glen and Tabitha were Liberal party staffers. Any possibility they are connected with the Oz? Is it like papparatzi stirrign up a response for a new story? Will they “come out” if there are some lurking?
Socrates : By all accounts, Glen is Tim Andrews, president of the Student Liberals. Tabitha, I would assume, is another university student.
Re 534: the GG article about this site. The author was Samantha something… Tabitha’s mother?
Good Grief? Getting rid of a campaign slogan halfway through a campaign? How does that work for staying on message. It also means they will have to ditch a few of their ads that have “Pro Growth” written on them.
Does this mean that they are now the anti-growth party? Or the pro-recession party? Or maybe they like stagflation?
Also, bloody good on you BBill. Hang in there mate, you will make it.
Me, I’m a failed quitter (ie I gave it up for a week cold turkey, thought I was “cured”, had a fag and was back on ‘em again in no time). I am determined to get there again, think I might have to wait until after the election though.
I’m gunna a bag of nerves on election night (at least for the first hour until Antony calls it for Labor). It was the bloody cofee/ciggies and beer/ciggies connection that has me stuffed me at the minute. Must. Break. The. Chain.
In seat-by-seat betting, the ALP are currently ahead in 17 seats @ Centrebet. And this assumes no gains at all in Victoria.
Just thought you all might like to know.
534 Socrates,
While not proving to be 100% the case, the balance of the evidence is that Glen and Tabitha, et. al. do tend to troll moreso later in the day and in the evenings. That would mesh with having a workday scenario where perhaps they couldn’t access the net? hmm……. you may be onto something there
It’s obvious – Samantha Maiden IS Tabitha! (Note the extra clue there you Bewitched fans).
Julie 540 and Socrates 534
And what does that say about the day bloggers – they are all unemployed Labor voters?
Henry #532,
You can sound educated without sounding like a ponce, you know. While I agree that either extreme is as bad as the other, that wasn’t really my problem with her voice. Its the scratchiness of it. I know that it can’t be helped, but it does nothing to improve her charisma. I’m not bagging her at any point – listened to her debate and she creamed Hockey on content, but as far as being media-attractive (which gets positive publicity and therefore votes), a good voice is very helpful.
You’re quite correct as far as you go – you don’t need to have, as Paul Keating put it, “swallowed a f***ing dictionary” in order to get your point across.
Did anyone count the number of times Overington said ‘please don’t swear’? Which raises an interesting q: if the on-line readers of a right wing rag like the Oz are so reasonable in their thinking and assessment of political realities, where are the conservative readers and respondents? I notice they have just about entirely fled PB (Glen? Tabitha?), so where oh where have they gone (and don’t say the Terror – I’m talking about people who can type without moving their lips).
Well, it’s called PollBludger for a reason…
No, edward, we are company directors, with plenty of time for “frequent pauses”.
Fetch me my pipe lad.
I just love the dumping of the “Go for Growth” slogan. And I must say that Rudd’s press conference on interest rates today was amazingly lucid, measured, and confident. He covered all the issues very well, without rambling on.
I did stop listening, though, when he told us that the solution was “new leadership”. But at least he hasn’t ditched his slogans (”working families” got a guernsey too).
Edward 542
Sorry I’m too busy working to reply.
I hope channel nine puts on a good movie on 24 November for those Liberals who don’t want to watch the results. Dead Man Walking would be a good choice.
ESJ #542,
Didn’t your mother teach you “if you have nothing useful to say, then shut up!”?
Thought not.
Matthew Cole – Hawkie’s voice wasn’t exactly music to the ears. But he was very well educated, with a VERY Australian accent, and the punters loved him.
Julie @ 540: I don’t really think Glen’s a troll. Just becasue he doesn’t agree with most of us doesn’t make him a troll. He might stir us a bit but he also has some substantive things to say from time to time.
Last night for example he put forward some pretty damn good posts (not that I agree with him on things) but they were well thought out at least and stated his case.
Tabitha is a troll, but imo she’s just funny, as well as fatuous (spelling?).
ESJ likes to provoke but again he puts his points across in the face of some sometimes personal attacks, and sticks to his guns.
new thread
I love Julia’s accent, just like Hawkey’s.
A little irritating, yes, but a nice foil to K-Dogg’s educated modern Australian accent. Sounds genuinely Australian, without being forced, like John Howard’s.
Edward,
No,some of us regret voting for John Howard instead of Keating ,and want to amend the error of our ways! These past few years have been the least comfortable I have ever been and my “sorry” is heart -felt!!
Hockey has finally announced the coalition’s long-awaited childcare policy. It’s a week’s unpaid leave for grandparents.
And can I put in a word for ESJ, Glen and Tabitha. I love them.
Burgey
Have you checked out the quality of the right wing blogs. They’re pretty much the blogsosphere version of the bar scene in Star Wars. I’m not surprised some of them come over here..
Will @ 502
I suspect there are plenty of wives of Bludgers who feel the same way.
I sure you’re right about those who did guess correctly and and locked in, but those who locked in a while ago will be coming up near to the end of their fixed periods and looking at a jump of a couple of percent. I don’t know they’ll be looking too kindly at that jump.
Matthew
Julia is a social democrat. That’s just social democratic left – and our social democracies are heaps more right wing than most others if you look at it. Its only because of the Radical Right have infected both parties (neoliberalism). Her practical politics would be centre/left – of course, socialism is dead, its about social democracy. They say socialist left to marginalise it and scare people
bird #558,
Fair enough. Of course, if you want to see a right-wing political spectrum, look at America.
Pi @535 Tabitha a university student? I think that she is most likely a third grader. She has a very child-like quality of expression, don’t you think? But it’s nice seeing the little ones contribute to the political debate.
No, to the contrary. We just happen to be lucky enough to have a situation where we can use the internet freely
.
This is incorrect. Gillard is now a member of the Ferguson Left faction.
ShowsOn #562,
This isn’t sarcasm – what’s the difference? I don’t understand the internal politicking of the ALP (or the LP, for that matter, but that’s not at discussion). Please enlighten my ignorance.
Don’t know if anyone else has commented on it, but the Labor ad attacking Howard over interest rates is getting a very good work out on Fox this afternoon.
I agree with Matthew Cole. I think Gillard is a fantastic, intelligent performer who will be a great asset in the Rudd Ministry. Unfortunately, in Western societies there is a huge bias against women who are not photogenic and dont have a mellifluous voice. This does not apply for men. Look at the newsreaders, all the women are young and attractive, the men are not. Its sad but its a fact of life.
Dolly says The Libs need WA.
http://www.thewest.com.au/default.aspx?MenuID=28&ContentID=45958
Julia not photogenic? She looked positively gorgeous this afternoon.
And her voice is the voice of pure Australia, undiluted.
Your taste is all in your a*se, Diogenes.
yes, julia used to turn me right off, with the voice and the look. but she’s refined the look, got the hair sorted (handy having a hairdresser partner, eh what?) and the voice seems less grating when everything else is looking good. and she’s extremely articulate and sharp. she has el rodente’s team for breakfast.
Resurrecting something I wrote on another site during the 2004 campaign about interest rates. I’m feeling much more optimistic in 2007!
————————–
The Lindsay Electorate
Despite our extensive leaflet dropping and handouts, the Lindsay voter turnout for the ‘Defend Your Democracy’ forum in Penrith on 18/9 was very disappointing.
That was quite a stark contrast to the full house the following day at the same venue when John Howard (along with Tony Abbott, Jackie Kelly, Ross Cameron etc) was there to bribe all the western seats. (BTW it was the first time I shouted at someone in Australia – Shame, Howard shame)
Labor is unable to counter the scare campaign on interest rates and the economy in this area. I have plans to drop leaflets on interest rates and the economy as part of our grassroots campaign. There is only a handful of us helping. I have a good article from The Age on ‘The Truth about John Howard and Interest Rates.’ Does anyone out there have any other articles I can use? Unfortunately, Truth in government is not high up on the local electorate’s priorities. They are worried about their mortgages.
It is really depressing as most of the locals should really be pro-public health and education. I am feeling rather desperate and helpless in Lindsay.
HA: You’re a trooper. Lindsay will be a tough nut, but, in the words of Aragorn, ‘There is always hope’. A letterbox campaign specifically targetting the interest rate issue sounds like an excellent strategy. Can anyone help? Email me if you want me to pass your contact details on to …….
I think the Libs underestimate Julia because she tends not to dress and shimmy like the staring Julie Bishop (my granddaughter asked of her ‘why does that lady stare at me with weird eyes!) But why should Julia be judged on appearance and voice. I thought she was great today and won hands down. Joe looked like the buffoon he is and his face said it all – why can’t he be judged on his size and the way he looks. Perhaps he was upset because you guys hadn’t supplied his pies!!
Thought Kevin said it all very well at his Press Conference – David Speers looked a bit stunned afterwards and didn’t know where to start commenting. Of course he tried to spin everything in the Government’s favour as usual.
Now this is more like it.
http://www.theage.com.au/news/federal-election-2007-news/sorry-doesnt-cut-it-says-rudd/2007/11/07/1194329292136.html
303 MAX said: “I would reply, but that generalisation says to me that I, as a Liberal and thus “Team Howard” supporter, have already been labelled, thus there really isn’t much point, is there? Then again, I generalised in calling you all ‘plotters’, so I will give the benefit of the doubt that such a line was not aimed at me, and give a few ramblings.
If you have read my posts before, you will have noticed that I have on occaison criticised the government. I hate the new electoral laws. The IR laws were good in theory, went a touch too far and probably need to be tinkered with, but the scare campaign by the union has frankly made me disbelieve everything that they now have to say on the matter. All in all, the reforms will end up having a positive effect. I think the rate rise ‘promise’ of 2004 by Howard was idiotic. The price is now being paid. Whether or not rates would have gone up higher under Labor is a matter for debate, who knows what type of spending a Latham governmenmt would have embarked upon?”
MAX, thanks for your cogent and courteous response. My point about people making bogus excuses was not directed at yourself, but to other posters who repeatedly deny Team Howard’s mistakes or breaching of commitments. Obviously, we’re not so very far apart on what we expect of our side of politics in government, but do you have the ticker that it takes to vote for Labor on the 24th like I did in the NSW election this year when voting Liberal first time ever?
I didn’t think Debnam was a better leader or his policies any improvement, but it’s a certainty that no Party ever starts to listen again to its rank and file unless it has copped either a defeat or a genuine near-death experience. Each and every failing of the too-long-in-power-and-out-of-touch state Labor governments has its direct equivalent in the Howard government. Especially galling is that all have thrown hundreds of millions of our tax dollars down the toilet on self-promotional advertising and a plethora of spin doctors.
Perhaps a fair portion of this Ministerial arrogance and cognitive dissonance stems from Parliamentary Question Time being a bully session with zero pressure for any Minister to come within cooee of a straight, accountable response (saw Turnbull do it once, but he’s not fully House-trained yet!). Small wonder that Howard early in this campaign, when under pressure from the crowd at a rally, actually shouted, “Mr. Speaker!”
As to your point about the Coalition’s I.R. laws going a “touch too far”. First, please check out Ross Gittins’ article 6 months ago in which he details why WorkChoices is a “try-on” to give employers an excessive degree of power. Then, for its first year Team Howard ardently rubbished all the evidence that WorkChoices needed serious modification (far beyond “tinkering”) until forced to accept reality and bring in a fairness umpire, Uncle Joe Hockey etc. Do you think nobody notices that Team Howard uses the same spurious arguments which they insisted were true for the “perfect” Mach I before they hastily cobbled together their “perfect” Mach II version? Do you think nobody cares that Team Howard never mentioned any elephantine I.R. changes like WorkChoices during the last election?
As for Howard’s “idiotic” rates promise, it seems that you still don’t quite accept the significance of it to today’s rate rise. Mate, it’s totally irrelevant whether rates would be worse if Latham had won because it wasn’t Latham who made interest rates THE “trust” issue. Ironically, even without the promise, Howard would have surfed to victory just by getting credit for the low 2004 rates and prosperity.
Thanks to Latham’s blunders (Tassie Timberworkers, the only Noble True Blue Thug-free Union, mobbing Howard their Hero—pure campaign gold), Team Rudd will still require a boatload of luck to win 16 marginals seats (perhaps 18 after loss of 2 in WA) should Labor win the national popular vote. Do you reckon Rudd will be the new model of the ‘98 Beazley?
My husband likes Julia Gillard’s voice (but then my own is far from mellifluous)
503 Mathew Cole. If that’s what John Howard has been attempting, Julia brings it all undone by just appearing on television.
Hemingway – we are not going to lose 2 seats in WA…
Just saw Rudd’s press conference – nailed it with the exact right amount of seriousness, conern and professionalism. But only useful if lots of people get to see it.
People should post this everywhere. The reference to Kohler and the ABC regarding interest rates needs to dispel a lot of lies from Howard.
http://jmcdonald.org/opinion/?p=51
My mother in law has been interviewed on AM for tomorrows show about interest rates. Asked if they would affect the way she votes, she said no. She was then asked if they would affect the way she votes if there was another rise she said no, but John Howard has been there far too long and she was sure all her children were voting him out.
535 Pi. Tabitha is a kindergarten student. Please don’t denigrate Uni students.
575 PJK,
Delighted to hear WA is solid, but what’s the story that some newspaper there had a random sample poll showing Beazley’s and another one heading Howard’s way? Was it a bogus survey, or what?
580 – There is only one WA newspaper – The Worst Australia and Beazley’s not standing! His former seat has a margin of 9% or so. Cowan is being called close due to loss of Edwards as sitting member but odds are we will win Hasluck and Stirling. Westpoll is always bollox.
Thanks PJK for WA news we don’t get in the Far East! I knew Beazley had retired, so I’m relieved to hear that losing one of Labor’s most revered MP’s doesn’t seem to place his former seat in danger. As Hawkie once said, Kim Beazley is the best Prime Minister we never had, and I would have felt a Labor victory all the more sweet if luck had gone Kim’s way in either of his two campaigns.
Surely there are plenty like me who vote out lousy,complacent govts regardless of party? I wanted to vote out this smug NSW government (with it’s bruvvers..Costa,et al)but couldn’t vote for Debnam….why did the Libs chose him over the steady O’Farrell, who was known to voters and who WAS electable? Sometimes wonder if it was pressure from JWH camp to keep NSW as Labor so as not to threaten the current Federal incumbency.
Surely the extreme swing to the right is what needs correcting with Fascism snapping at our heels?
If, as I suspect, the campaign managers for Labor have been hanging onto the best grenades in the advertising box to lob in the final fortnight, following the campaign launch, they will have played their hand perfectly.
Think about the contrasting images on the news at their launches. The Tip does the intro, Rattus strides out, they shake hands and pretend they like each other, Rodent then launches into lengthy discourse on why interest rates are going up is out of his hands, but vote us in again and we’ll promise not to use our Senate majority to make sure your pay packet can’t keep pace with price rises, or better still make it even easier for your boss to f**k you off any time he feels like it.
A few lines about Labor and the unions planning to eat your children, then close by thanking your team. “Go For Growth” slogan nowhere to be seen, massive Australian flag will play well down Cronulla way but Cook’s a safe Liberal seat so it makes no difference. Hyacinth stands next to him beaming proudly, thinking in the back of her mind that if he loses she will actually have to live with the guy 24/7, 365 days a year for another 25 years.
Rudd strides out after ensuring that no member of the NSW Government is within a ten block radius, wife and young kids in tow, some hip rock song plays in the background, Hawkie shakes his hand in the front row (Gough and Paul are welcome to attend but can watch from a private suite away from the cameras) and he strides onstage with ‘New Leadership’ in the background of every shot.
Tells the assembled that in order to keep productivity going we need to invest in education and skills training, so we shelved the tax cut for the rich pricks. Howard wants to build new technical colleges, we want to fund your kid’s local school properly be it public or private. Think you’re packing it over interest rates now? Wasn’t life a bit better when you had something called job security? The boss already has you bent over, vote Howard back in and he’ll hand your boss the black one with the 12 inch shaft to finish the job. Mortgage going up and house price going down? Just wait till Howard’s buddies build their nuclear reactor down the road from you.
Standing ovation, hug from the wife and kids, beautiful. Cue a solid fortnight of 50% ads selling your plan for the future, 50% reminding you that in 2004 you voted for the bloke selling the magic beans, turns out the beans he sold you are worth 70% of what they were then, and the mate he sold your cow onto at a profit just raised the price of milk. But then again the bloke says he can’t control the beans, and what his mate does with the cow in the privacy of his own home is none of his business.
Saving the bulk of the advertising push until the home stretch will do much to counteract the oodles of mud that’s no doubt about to be slung.
All the above being said, something tells me a couple of curveballs on the night of the 24th like one or two WA seats going the other way will spoil the Labor party.
I’ve been noting the media bias towards Howard the past couple of days
eg:
-2GB (Home of Alan”I have a urinary problem” Jones) at 7:00pm had the interest rate increase at story 5
- On Sky News I have seen better/more coverage to the Libs over Labor
I will list more
This looks like the State by State for the last 2 Newspolls. From the Age site but not many details.
http://www.theage.com.au/news/National/Labor-leads-in-all-states-except-WA/2007/11/07/1194329324944.html
I too have been thinking recently about the standard deviation of swings by electorate. I started out thinking about applying standard deviations to poll results either nationally or by state to get some idea of the distribution of the swing. I didn’t get far in proving anything useful. However, as often happens in scientific endeavour, I happened on something interesting by accident.
I was able to download an Excel spreadsheet with 2004 swings by electorate from the AEC website. Because there was no equivalent spreadsheet for 2001 results, I was compelled to enter 2001 swings manually from an AEC table. The electorates were listed in swing order, and I noticed that a number of the electorates we have been canvassing lately in the blogosphere crop up at the swing-to-Labor end of the 2001 spectrum. For example Warringah, Kooyong, Ryan, Higgins & Kennedy.
With my interest piqued by the 2001 swings in some of those safer Coalition seats, I decided to test the swing in each seat to see how many standard deviations they were away from the mean electorate swing for the State. I did this for both 2001 & 2004, and then added the results together as well for good measure.
A number of Coalition seats stand out for having gone hard (in relative terms) against the pro-Government trend in the last two elections:
Bennelong – 1.4 standard deviations of the NSW swing in the Labor direction in 2004
Berowra – almost 1.5 NSW st dev towards Labor in 2004
Bradfield – 1.18 & 1.15 st dev towards Labor in the last two elections (but at 68% 2pp last time its very safe)
Cowper – 1.5 NSW st dev towards Labor in 2001
Mackellar – averaged .9 NSW st dev towards Labor at the last 2 elections (but over 65% 2pp)
North Sydney – .9 and 1.36 NSW st dev towards Labor
Warringah – 1.18 and .97 the last two elections
Wentworth – .95 and 1.05
Kennedy – 1.6 and 0.7 st dev better for Labor than the mean swing in Qld
Ryan – averaged .8 Qld st dev towards Labor in 2001 & 2004
Boothby – averaged .91 SA st dev better for Labor
Corangamite – 1.5 Vic st dev better for Labor in 2004
Higgins – more than 1.3 Vic st dev in each election
Kooyong – .96 and 2.1 Vic st dev better for Labor
McMillan – 1.67 st dev better for Labor in 2004
The extent of these swings was disguised by the State and national swings to the Coalition the last two times. For example, the 2001 swing to the Libs in Wentworth of 0.5% looks unremarkable, but its not a good result when you realise the mean swing in NSW was 3% with a standard deviation of 2.6%.
My hypothesis about a number of these seats is that it represents the revolt of the small-l Liberal heartland against the Howard marginal seats strategy involving lowest-common-denominator racism, xenophobia, global warming denial, detention without trial etc. The statistics reinforce Possum Comitatus’ analysis of the quarterly Newspoll results which points to a huge swing in safe Coalition seats.