Simon Jackman at The Bullring has done as I did in an idle moment a few weeks ago, deriving various measures of spread from an election’s worth of swing results at national and state level. If Jackman’s interpretation is correct, a state-level poll is little better than a national one as a pointer to a given seat result:
We see that there is less variation in swing within states than there is overall. But not that much less. The measures of spead of the swings (range, standard deviations, the mean absolute deviation around the mean) for each state are still quite large relative to corresponding national figure … There is still an awful lot of variability in swings out there, and I’d be reluctant to start applying uniform swing models within states.
However, he does add “just one caveat to all of this”:
It could well be that when average swings are large (or dare I say massive), there is greater uniformity or even less uniformity than when average swings are relatively small. I haven’t looked at data from previous election to know the answer to that, but it be helpful to know the answer to that.
Which is easily done if you have a spreadsheet full of swing figures, like I do. These three tables replicate Jackman’s for the 1996, 1998 and 2001 elections, two of which saw heavy traffic from one party to the other.
| 2001 | Nat’l | NSW | Vic | Qld | SA | WA |
| Mean | 1.9 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 0.2 | 1.2 |
| SD | 2.4 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 1.4 |
| MAD | 1.8 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 1.0 |
| Minimum | -5.5 | -4.0 | -5.5 | -3.3 | -2.7 | -2.4 |
| Maximum | 10.1 | 10.1 | 4.7 | 7.9 | 3.3 | 3.3 |
| Range | 15.6 | 14.1 | 10.2 | 11.2 | 6.0 | 5.7 |
| N | 142 | 45 | 37 | 25 | 11 | 15 |
| 1998 | Nat’l | NSW | Vic | Qld | SA | WA |
| Mean | -4.8 | -4.5 | -3.2 | -7.1 | -4.0 | -6.2 |
| SD | 2.9 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 3.2 | 2.8 | 2.7 |
| MAD | 2.3 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 1.7 |
| Minimum | -15.3 | -10.2 | -9.8 | -15.3 | -9.0 | -11.1 |
| Maximum | 0.3 | -0.3 | 0.3 | -0.5 | -0.2 | 0.0 |
| Range | 15.6 | 9.9 | 10.1 | 14.8 | 8.8 | 11.1 |
| N | 139 | 48 | 35 | 25 | 11 | 12 |
| 1996 | Nat’l | NSW | Vic | Qld | SA | WA |
| Mean | 5.2 | 7.0 | 1.7 | 8.3 | 4.5 | 2.2 |
| SD | 3.3 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 1.4 |
| MAD | 2.7 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1.2 |
| Minimum | 0.1 | 2.3 | 0.1 | 4.4 | 2.2 | 0.2 |
| Maximum | 14.0 | 12.0 | 4.9 | 14.0 | 6.5 | 3.9 |
| Range | 13.9 | 9.7 | 4.8 | 9.6 | 4.3 | 3.7 |
| N | 138 | 48 | 34 | 25 | 12 | 11 |
And what do you know. The last time there was a big swing and a change of government, the gap between measures of spread at state and national level was significantly higher than in 2004. However, this was not true of the 1998 election, which saw a substantial swing to Labor but no change of government. That might be due to the effect of One Nation in polarising the cities and the regions, most evidently in Queensland. The even messier picture from 2001 provides support for Jackman’s suggestion that a relative lack of state-level uniformity might be a phenomenon of status quo elections.
UPDATE: Geoff Lambert, who knows way more about these things than I do, offers a well-made point about the leptokurticity (here, use my hankie) of swing distributions in comments.
587 Comments
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@ 346 That was my point (the suggestion of a politically-orchestrated ‘convenient delay’). It was also, I grant you, a poorly delivered attempt at humour. (Thanks Peter Garrett, but I’ll take my lessons elsewhere from now …)
295-yes thats a very silly one that I have seen used to counter the ‘ 100% of marijuana smokers end up injecting heroin’ theory as 100 % of marijuana smokers started off on breast milk !
You can’t believe the Labor party … Gee Joe, you’re so convincing!
Someone said lies, damned lies and statistics.
The point about the milk and ciggies example is that statistics can be tortured for the desired polemical outcome.
Human beings have free will and decisions are made on “look” and “feel” too. How do you statistically measure the “birthday cake” or the “handshake” for that matter?
The election will be decided upon how much doubt or anxiety JWH can sow about KR and the team. End of story. That’s basically about 2-3% of the Labor primary vote we are talking about that needs to move for JWH to win. Everyone else is pretty much locked in.
I am of the view that JWH cant do it but anything is still possible with 2 weeks to go and Piers working away.
The coalition won’t be able to get traction that we are heading towards difficult times whilst the stock market remains so buoyant. Hopefully the bull run will continue for anothr few weeks.
umm did Hockey just say that Justice Giudice had people behind him and would fold to ‘union bosses’??
Joe’s banging on about the vision for full employment and self control of people’s lives. Apparently only the coalition can achieve these things. The ALP won’t invest in the future of your children.
Eddie at 352 said “Human beings have free will and decisions are made on “look” and “feel” too. ”
Sure they do, they also seem to make decisions on the basis of the interest rate level, but going further back on the basis of interest rates to disposable income – hip pocket stuff.
That can be measured.
Julia absolutely nailed it with her summary.
From Crikey:
The Daily Telegraph Editor David Penberthy writes: Re. “Tips and rumours” (yesterday, item 5). Crikey published: “The Daily Telegraph is sitting on a big story on Kevin Rudd that will make the Scores story seem irrelevant by comparison. The Tele will run with the story this Friday.” Can you please let us know what our story about Rudd is? We may need to put on extra staff.
Max
So, you really think the IR laws will have a positive effect, when you give 90% of power to the employer and 10% to employer – if you looked into it, you would find out how extreme and against ILO conventions some of them are? I find it incredible to think that going from a high income disparity to an extreme one, which will be the long term ramification is a positive ramification with all the increase crime and social dislocation.
A touch too Far? I think that’s understating things a bit……….there is a long way to the middle with this policy…if it was the opposite, with 10% of rights to employers, would you say the same thing?
And I would trust David Penberthy with my LIFE!
My last comment went into moderation so I’ll try again. Great opening speech from Julia, and I thought she looked on top of things all the way through.
Overington seems to have caved under all the vitriol on her blog site. She has just said that “Downer should have resigned over the AWB scandal”! This was in response to a blog commenting that if interest rates going up was good for the Ratking, AWB must have helped them too.
Nexus 6 @ 358:
Classic! Howard still screwed.
Everyone should read Gittins today. Especially those that crap on about “managing the economy” or, worse, “running” it. You know who you are.
The problem with all these polls and theoretic extrapolations is the MOE if the swing required is close to it i.e. 3-4%. If the polling indicates a TPP that is within the MOE + fluctuations bandwidth the final result could go either way. Put simply if Labor require about 51.5% to get over the line and the MOE is 3% polling that indicates 54.5% says line ball. Lets see what the interest rate brings in the way the chicken entrails fall.
75 [they can safely hammer home the danger in granting Krudd and his gang of idiots control of the economy.]
Only trouble with that theory is that the coalition have proven themselves to be poorer economic managers and there are twelve wasted years to prove it.
great opening speech from Julia!
358,
GOOD stuff
:) … now I feel much better. Wonder if he was prodded by my letter yesterday? 
There has been a lot of talk about the impact of interest rates on home mortgages, but what about the impact on those of us who run a business? I have borrowings of about $1 million to fund the family business-so that’s about $2,500 in extra costs the business has to find, due to this latest rate rise, and an increase in borrowing costs of about $25,000 since the bottom of the current interest rate cycle. Sure, there is a buffering effect from the tax system, but it is still a significant increase in business costs, which ultimately flows through to my family’s standard of living, and to the prices I charge my customers.
I’m astonished and angered by the comments of some the conservative commentators on this blog that this interest rate rise is somehow a good thing. They obviously don’t run a small business.
Will voting for Rudd change any of this? Of course not. Interest rates will most likely go up another 0.5% or so, then gradually fall over the next couple of years, as inflation falls and unemployment edges up to about 5%, regardless of who is in power. The government has little impact on the economy, but it’s worth noting that credible economic commentators like Gittins forecast that the big tax cuts in the last budget would add to upward pressure on interest rates.
The reality is that economic indicators like inflation, interest rates and unemployment, when viewed over a period of years, are completely independent of which party is in government, and there are simple statistical tools like regressions which prove that. But what really gives me the sh*ts about Howard and the current mob, apart from the disgusting racial and religious wedges he keeps using, is the constant lies and misrepresentation. This government is nothing but spin and marketing tactics-good riddance.
Bushfire Bill wrote
Yep, cold turkey is it.
Just keep telling yourself that smoking is slow-motion suicide.
Personal affidavit for E.F.T. – it does work.
http://www.emofree.com/articles.aspx?id=1
Madam Lash’s column in the GG reaches yet another new low. What a disgrace to suggest that Gillard as an unmarried, childless, militant lefty harpy is unfit for public office. Too bad for her that Gillard will be a heartbeat away from the top job after Nov 24.
Boy, Gillard’s sharp.
Made Buffy look a bit of a thicky.
Thanks Possum
A bit of a relief about Penberthy’s comment. Looks like no big scandal after all. It was probably just a Lib trying to scare us all, and maybe make Labor panic a bit.
The Labor vote is more solid than the Lib vote, with only 6% saying an even chance of voting for someone else, as against 8% who say the same for the Libs. This interest rate rise should definitely solidify the Labor vote. Labor has its own scare campaigns on Workchoices and nuclear power that it can run, and can also run on Howard’s lack of trustworthiness.
Your an economic determinist Possum of course you would believe that.
Can falling in love be statistically charted? Or can you chart when we will act against our “economic interests”?
Gillard is smart, energetic, cool, clear and calm.
Hockey is available for buck’s nights and 21sts.
Anyone think there’s much chance of Labor running attack ads against the government’s record on the environment and education?
There must be some pretty juicy quotes of Howard’s dissing climate change, and it’s not hard to show how they have screwed over the education system.
I would like to see Howard exposed on this, but I suspect Labor is going to hammer a different line. Sigh.
367 Sceptic,
If all the final polls say 54% or better, there is an absolutely minuscule chance of Labor only getting 51%. To have that happen really would mean that the polls were absolutely wrong.
Howard Hater @326, more rumors, please
Nexus 6
The Scores story already looks irrelevant: it still would
even if the Tele publish nothing about Rudd on Fri.
I hate to disappoint you, ESJ, but the official line from the Howard government is that the economy underpins everything.
Indeed, Greg Hunt said that on ABC774 Melbourne this morning while rabbiting on about how an interest rate rise would focus people’s attention on the superior economic skills of the Libs. This sounds to me like an argument for economic determinism par excellence. Yet, suddenly, when you don’t like the data and the statistical analysis thereof, you go all gooey and metaphysical. Please try to at least demonstrate some consistency!
376
I hesitate to start a conspiracy theory but if you were someone LOOKING for dirt, wouldn’t it be a neat idea to start a rumor like this and then wait to see what the blogosphere dredges up in response?
384 – Nuh.
Eddie at 377 said “Your an economic determinist Possum of course you would believe that.”
Its not the economic activity that determines anything,it’s the consistency of human behavioral reaction to those economic circumstances that explain a large chunk of voter movement like that.
You say,”Can falling in love be statistically charted? Or can you chart when we will act against our “economic interests”?”
Dont need to, that’s what makes up the variation that can’t be explained by other means.
Interesting lines out there.
I have a really whacky theory, but humour me here: interest rate rises will hurt the incumbent coalition government, who ran on the issue bigtime in 04.
So what happened re: Hockey vs Gillard?
ESJ: Sorry to be the grammar police, but you are a serial offender on this point and I can no longer resist. Your and you’re — watch out which one you’re using. My GF does it too and it drives me nuts.
ESJ 377 – the fact is that people do vote with their wallets. This interest rate rise will lock in for Labor those ‘battlers’ who might have been wavering.
Forget the dirt rumour, people. There wont be anything reported of the slightest interest to Mr and Mrs Punter.
This is the “ghost dance/ General Wenck kommt” phase of the liberal campaign. Rumours of magic bullets will abound; none will be true.
I have just had a thought, and would like to know what you think.
Financial institutions have for years now, offered fixed interest terms of up to 5 years.
People who fixed their rates say,2 years before the last election, have been able to fix in new rates up till today, and can look forward to no increase in repayments for a number of years.
People who have taken out loans since the last election and have fixed rates for 5 years are similarly blessed.
In both cases the rate rise will not affect them, and so therefore, would they bother to change their vote?
After all, should interest rates fall during the next coalition (horror thought) reign of terror, they are no worse off. And how many of them are there, most I would have thought.
It is only people who are now taking out mortgages, and those who have not fixed their rates, who are affected by the rate hike.
Just a thought.
Lefty – you might be on to something.
RGee – Julia carved him into bite sized peices, which seh very sensibly left for a rat to chew on.
She ended up by holding a copy of the Libs 2004 IR policy, and enunciated a list of things that weren’t contained in that policy. Suffice to say, Joe was squirming.
Joe’s line, BTW, was that you can’t trust Labor. Indeed, Labor cannot be trusted. And finally, Labor is untrustworthy.
I dont believe its necessary to have apostrophes or commas on blogs Ashley English is a living language after all.
ESJ – on lies and statistics, this is one of the earliest quotes from (1892) by Sir Robert Giffen, three years before the famous Disraeli quote repeated by Mark Twain.
So there.
NoSmoke, I have a good idea.
What they do is, they make every 10,000th cigarette explosive. Just enough to kill the user.
That way smokers get to enjoy the risk, and it saves billions on health care
@ 378 For an extra fee he’ll bring along his little troupe of sad clowns (Ruddock, Andrews, Downer and Pyne) so that they can be lashed to lamposts, deprived of their trousers and sprayed with soy sauce etc.
Kerr’s got it right on Crikey.
Boil the Rattite economic rhetoric down and its “Vote for me and I’ll keep your wages down”.
Another rolled-gold classic stuffup from the post-Sinodinis school of “How to lose a federal election”.
“Hockey is available for buck’s nights and 21sts.”
Hey I wouldn’t mind Hockey entertaining at a party of mine – he’s been an absolute hoot this year.
Will, it’s true that those with fixed rate mortgages will not suffer as those with floating rates do – but about 80% of Australians have floating rates….
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