I was able to download an Excel spreadsheet with 2004 swings by electorate from the AEC website. Because there was no equivalent spreadsheet for 2001 results, I was compelled to enter 2001 swings manually from an AEC table. The electorates were listed in swing order, and I noticed that a number of the electorates we have been canvassing lately in the blogosphere crop up at the swing-to-Labor end of the 2001 spectrum. For example Warringah, Kooyong, Ryan, Higgins & Kennedy.

With my interest piqued by the 2001 swings in some of those safer Coalition seats, I decided to test the swing in each seat to see how many standard deviations they were away from the mean electorate swing for the State. I did this for both 2001 & 2004, and then added the results together as well for good measure.

A number of Coalition seats stand out for having gone hard (in relative terms) against the pro-Government trend in the last two elections:

Bennelong – 1.4 standard deviations of the NSW swing in the Labor direction in 2004
Berowra – almost 1.5 NSW st dev towards Labor in 2004
Bradfield – 1.18 & 1.15 st dev towards Labor in the last two elections (but at 68% 2pp last time its very safe)
Cowper – 1.5 NSW st dev towards Labor in 2001
Mackellar – averaged .9 NSW st dev towards Labor at the last 2 elections (but over 65% 2pp)
North Sydney – .9 and 1.36 NSW st dev towards Labor
Warringah – 1.18 and .97 the last two elections
Wentworth – .95 and 1.05
Kennedy – 1.6 and 0.7 st dev better for Labor than the mean swing in Qld
Ryan – averaged .8 Qld st dev towards Labor in 2001 & 2004
Boothby – averaged .91 SA st dev better for Labor
Corangamite – 1.5 Vic st dev better for Labor in 2004
Higgins – more than 1.3 Vic st dev in each election
Kooyong – .96 and 2.1 Vic st dev better for Labor
McMillan – 1.67 st dev better for Labor in 2004

The extent of these swings was disguised by the State and national swings to the Coalition the last two times. For example, the 2001 swing to the Libs in Wentworth of 0.5% looks unremarkable, but its not a good result when you realise the mean swing in NSW was 3% with a standard deviation of 2.6%.

My hypothesis about a number of these seats is that it represents the revolt of the small-l Liberal heartland against the Howard marginal seats strategy involving lowest-common-denominator racism, xenophobia, global warming denial, detention without trial etc. The statistics reinforce Possum Comitatus’ analysis of the quarterly Newspoll results which points to a huge swing in safe Coalition seats.

I will list more

Think about the contrasting images on the news at their launches. The Tip does the intro, Rattus strides out, they shake hands and pretend they like each other, Rodent then launches into lengthy discourse on why interest rates are going up is out of his hands, but vote us in again and we’ll promise not to use our Senate majority to make sure your pay packet can’t keep pace with price rises, or better still make it even easier for your boss to f**k you off any time he feels like it.

A few lines about Labor and the unions planning to eat your children, then close by thanking your team. “Go For Growth” slogan nowhere to be seen, massive Australian flag will play well down Cronulla way but Cook’s a safe Liberal seat so it makes no difference. Hyacinth stands next to him beaming proudly, thinking in the back of her mind that if he loses she will actually have to live with the guy 24/7, 365 days a year for another 25 years.

Rudd strides out after ensuring that no member of the NSW Government is within a ten block radius, wife and young kids in tow, some hip rock song plays in the background, Hawkie shakes his hand in the front row (Gough and Paul are welcome to attend but can watch from a private suite away from the cameras) and he strides onstage with ‘New Leadership’ in the background of every shot.

Tells the assembled that in order to keep productivity going we need to invest in education and skills training, so we shelved the tax cut for the rich pricks. Howard wants to build new technical colleges, we want to fund your kid’s local school properly be it public or private. Think you’re packing it over interest rates now? Wasn’t life a bit better when you had something called job security? The boss already has you bent over, vote Howard back in and he’ll hand your boss the black one with the 12 inch shaft to finish the job. Mortgage going up and house price going down? Just wait till Howard’s buddies build their nuclear reactor down the road from you.

Standing ovation, hug from the wife and kids, beautiful. Cue a solid fortnight of 50% ads selling your plan for the future, 50% reminding you that in 2004 you voted for the bloke selling the magic beans, turns out the beans he sold you are worth 70% of what they were then, and the mate he sold your cow onto at a profit just raised the price of milk. But then again the bloke says he can’t control the beans, and what his mate does with the cow in the privacy of his own home is none of his business.

Saving the bulk of the advertising push until the home stretch will do much to counteract the oodles of mud that’s no doubt about to be slung.

All the above being said, something tells me a couple of curveballs on the night of the 24th like one or two WA seats going the other way will spoil the Labor party.