Comments on: EMRS: 59-41 to Labor in Tasmania

By: Pappinbarra Fox

Pappinbarra Fox — Fri, 09 Nov 2007 00:40:27 +0000

yeah whatever

By: Kevin Bonham

Kevin Bonham — Thu, 08 Nov 2007 08:36:35 +0000

The assumption that the Tasmanian Senate votes will correspond to the Reps results is not at all supported by recent Tasmanian figures:

2004: Reps Libs 42.0 ALP 46.0 Senate Libs 46.1 ALP 33.6
2001: Reps Libs 37.1 ALP 47.2 Senate Libs 38.8 ALP 36.8
1998: Reps Libs 38.2 ALP 48.9 Senate Libs 34.7 ALP 41.6 (Harradine year)
1996: Reps LNP 44.9 ALP 44.3 Senate LNP 43.5 ALP 39.0
1993: Reps Lib 42.0 ALP 46.8 Senate Libs 36.8 ALP 42.6 (Harradine year)
1990: Reps Lib 48.6 ALP 39.7 Senate Libs 44.1 ALP 41.3

In 1996 and 1998 the Coalition did slightly better in the Senate than in the Reps compared to the ALP (in 1993 and 1990 it did worse). In 2001 and 2004 the difference between (Lib-ALP) in the Senate and (Lib-ALP) in the Reps was in double figures. In 2004 it exceeded a Senate quota!

Probably the number of incumbents each party has in the Reps has a big impact on their Tasmanian Reps vote without affecting the Senate vote as much, but even so, it is not at all safe to assume that 42-35 in a Reps poll means 3-2-1 in the Senate. Anyone who takes three Tasmanian senate seats to the ALP for granted on the basis of any poll (unless it shows 70-15 ) is jumping the gun.

By: scaper...

scaper... — Wed, 07 Nov 2007 23:01:06 +0000

Bird,

Yes that’s me and I do most of my blogging at Blogocracy these days.

You guys must be scratching your heads concerning “the project” and all will be revealed after this election is over.

I would like to say that this project will go a long way to solving our environmental problems and will set this nation up for many generations after completion. (fifty years)

The sponsored web site is being built and the drafts of the logo are at Blogocracy, Midweek meltdown for opinion and selection as this is a people project and I invite you guys over there and I would greatly appreciate your opinion.

By: Spiros

Spiros — Wed, 07 Nov 2007 22:38:00 +0000

These polls were taken before the Mersey hospital stuff up, which will deliver Braddon comfortably to Labor.

By: bird

bird — Wed, 07 Nov 2007 22:28:26 +0000

Guys, where will you all be on election night? I live in eastern suburbs of sydney but I am looking to go to an election party….anything in city, inner west, or in east?

By: bird

bird — Wed, 07 Nov 2007 22:27:02 +0000

Hey, scaper, are you the same bloke on the AUustralian website. I like your postings…..

By: scaper...

scaper... — Wed, 07 Nov 2007 21:12:01 +0000

The Hanson factor in the upper house is a major worry to me.

This could upset future plans…unless I get into bed with her and that would be my sacrifice for the nation.

YUK!!!

By: Matthew Sykes

Matthew Sykes — Wed, 07 Nov 2007 20:52:20 +0000

I think its nigh on impossible to see the coalition retain an absolute majority in the senate. Xenophon will probably win a seat off the libs in SA, and Liberals down one in tassie. Probably changing scenaios in other states as well.

By: Sacha

Sacha — Wed, 07 Nov 2007 20:37:54 +0000

If the Senate primary votes pretty much correspond to the HOR primary votes, the Senate result will be 3/2/1 – ALP/Lib/Green, which removes the Coalition Senate majority.

By: Matthew Sykes

Matthew Sykes — Wed, 07 Nov 2007 19:27:07 +0000

I think summarizing this data it would suggest that Bass is in the bag for labor, Braddon is much closer, and the rest of the Tasmanian seats will be comfortably held by the ALP. This is to be expected, but one would think the slightly dirty smell coming out of the Mersey hospital arrangements should make enough of the undecideds vote for labor for Braddon to also fall.