Reuters’ fortnightly labour-saving device, Poll Trend, shows the two-party gap narrowing to 54.8-45.2 from 56.2-43.8 last time out. This is achieved by aggregating results from Newspoll, Morgan and ACNielsen and “smoothing volatility by using a five-term Henderson moving average”. Labor’s primary vote is down from 48.3 per cent to 47.8 per cent, with the Coalition up from 39.5 per cent to 40.8 per cent. A weekly breakdown shows that almost all of this movement came in the week before last.
UPDATE: Surprising news from SportingBet: “punters have flocked to the Coalition since this morning’s rate rise with 96% of money bet with Australia’s biggest bookmaker, Sportingbet Australia, going to the Coalition since the Reserve Bank’s announcement was made”.
658 Comments
First place?
woo-hoo!
Two blog comments shane-o likely to follow the path of the great pamphleteers of 18th century Britain.
“Go for Growth”??
Should be “Man the Lifeboats!”
I often read but don’t usually contribute, but does anyone else think that it’s time for Labor to follow through with the big guns? I’m getting nervous!
Or is the buffer so big not to matter?
Or are they concentrating their resources in the marginal seats?
It would be good for the troops to see some sign of coordinated activity.
On another topic, did Julia flatten Shreck today?
Chris #5,
Yes, yes she did. Showed the pres gallery the sh**e that is their IR policy, and then rubbed his face in it, without getting too personal. Pure, solid gold.
Myself #6,
By “their” I refer to the Coalition’s IR policy.
I watched about half the debate, and altho Gillard won, the debate will have no effect on anything. No king hits there.
Hockey did better than I expected too.
The Flute chimes in.
http://dailyflute.com/?p=1294
The Australian Government is thinking about setting up a consultation blog/forum to give the public a chance to debate public policy.
If you want to help shape the form this blog will take then have your say here:
http://www.openforum.com.au/Survey
It only takes a couple of minutes and could help lead to something really worthwhile. Thanks.
Well, if this is the “Narrowing” that the Coalition was looking for, a 6 month election campaign might have got them close to winning…
Chris @ #5
Don’t forget ALP launches campaign on 14th – boof, boof, coordinated punch to the collective coalition noggin.
Well let’s hope anyway
Interesting little press release from Penny Wong on the WA Libs preferencing One Nation before Labor. Penny has been helping Maxine with campaigning in the Asian community in Bennelong. No doubt this little snippet of news will be provided to Asian community leaders:
http://www.alp.org.au/media/1107/mscasp060.php
Boy there are some dumb punters out there
Dario at 14, and I get most of that money is coming from the Liberal party
I reckon the bookies would love to talk up a coalition win right now. All those bets that they won’t have to pay out on!
Cheers
Rod
Of course Labor voters are not betting – they are trying to figure out how to feed the kids for two days on a can of baked beans.
Damn some punters are stupid.
Interesting to read Peter van Onselen’s take on it, because he is usually fairly pro-Howard. He says “forget the spin, this rate rise really hurts”.
http://thebulletinelection.ninemsn.com.au/forget_the_spin_this_rate_rise_really_hurts.htm
Someone else mentioned that there was one guy who made at $10,000 bet. So that would skew the percentages a fair amount I imagine!!
15, Just like their advertising campagin to date; money down the proverbial drain …..
:)
It just concerns me that the idea of any differentiation with the Libs is being increasingly obscured ie the me-too thing is now accepted as fact.
Kitt @12 Do we really expect a lot of big new ideas to come out? That would seem to fly in the face of the Rudd’s equivalent of the small target.
I live in Canberra and the idea of a razor gang got a big run here (unsurprisingly) this morning. Howard has been a prize hypocrite on the idea of small government, though I’m not sure his supporters acknowledge it
So more punters are betting on the coalition to win due to the interest rate increase, believing that now the economy is front and centre – which is an issue favoring the Libs. They should stop taking themselves, the Australian and Newspoll so seriously.
This is the interest rate that broke the camel’s back ( the coalition’s economic credibility), and with it Howard’s house of cards will fall – consigning the Libs to a decade of purgatory in opposition.
Aesop has spoken…..
The Hockey/Gillard debate in shorthand.
http://ozvotes.blogspot.com/2007/11/gillard-hockey-debate.html
So it seems that there has been a narrowing, despite Possum’s belief that they generally don’t happen. Mercifully for this ALP supporter the narrowing has not been that significant.
But with the interest rate rise maybe the last 3 weeks will see the older margin restored, and then 40 seats change hands on election night. Fingers crossed…
Latest odds have Labor 1.35 (Centrebet), 1.32 (SportingBet), 1.33 (PortlandBet)
Well, we don’t find out if there was a narrowing until election day when we get the final score.
John
I think the only narrowing is the arteries of the Rodentcy
22 [So more punters are betting on the coalition to win due to the interest rate increase, believing that now the economy is front and centre - which is an issue favoring the Libs.]
Way too stupid to believe but maybe they took Costello’s:
rising interest rates = great economic management, seriously. They will be in for a rude shock come election night.
Portlandbet currently 77-71-2.
Does anyone know if any of the big agencies run margin betting. Just like the footy ie. Coalition +11.5 seats @ $1.95 for example.
That means two seats have moved to Labor since last week.
John, I think Possum contends that a narrowing is not a fait accompli, as some commentators were asserting. Endlessly. Sometimes it happens, sometimes it doesn’t. And Showson is right, we could be back to 55/45 by this time next week and beyond.
Yes, the “rising rates = return the experienced economic manager” formula has too many twists in it to be effective. A plausible enough thought for those close to politics (and therefore already committed), but for those who the coalition hopes are not engaged yet, the formula is “blame the govt for the rate rise becuase they said they were responsible for the falls”.
It implies that their entire election campaign now has a new theme – “Go For Growth, and see interest rates rise because of the growth”
Or how about “Go For Growth (Maybe)”
#30 Yeah, Herbert gone back to Labor and Deakin/Bowman at 50/50.
Is this is a dodgy Headline from the ABC re Shrek’s Grandparent leave announcement ?
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/11/07/2084142.htm?section=justin
How about ‘Forego Growth’
Anybody calling:
Higgins
Goldstein
Kooyong
For Labor? Thought not.
We are however calling Parramatta, Lindsay, Dobell, Eden-Monaro, Page, La Trobe, Bonner, Moreton, Blair, Herbert, Leichhardt, Kingston, Wakefield, Makin, Bass, Braddon and Solomon (that’s 17), with at least another ten in play. We’ll let you keep Kooyong for now.
Bookmakers need to balance there book. So that whoever wins they win. So by saying that nearly bet is now for the libs party and by the way you can still get 3.50 for every dollar bet. (fantastic odds in a two horse race as long as one neddie is not already rooted). They, the bookmakers are just wanting people to back the lib party, because even with labour only paying around 1.35 for a dollar bet enough people/money are backing labour at that price that the bookies face a loss unless they can get more people to back and lose money on the libs.
ESJ
The polls show a 10%+ swing on primaries. I am definately calling Higgins as a loss for Tip.
ESJ — I stand by my prediction of 146 seats to Labor.
I see The Age is reporting on the rate rises that:
“Labor’s treasury spokesman Wayne Swan said the Federal Government had ignored 20 central bank warnings in the past three years that a skilled labour shortage was contributing to the economy overheating.
“The Government has been inactive and complacent about skills shortages and infrastructure bottlenecks that are putting upwards pressure on inflation,” he said.
That’s the real story that the ALP should stick to. This points to the LNP’s “management of the economy” looking to the financial markets, but ignoring the real economy.
Congratulations ESJ, the Liberal Party is going to hold its safest seats.
Break out the bubbly.
Too bad about all the others.
All this betting on the libs is a hangover from yesterday.
The mug punters don’t know when to stop…..
“Surprising news from SportingBet: ‘punters have flocked to the Coalition since this morning’s rate rise with 96% of money bet with Australia’s biggest bookmaker, Sportingbet Australia, going to the Coalition since the Reserve Bank’s announcement was made’ “.
Well how come the odds in Sportingbet are still the same as yesterday (ALP $1.32, Coalition $3.30)? Probably Uncle Rupert putting on a $1m bet for his mate the Rodent.
I’m calling Cook. I didn’t move there for nothing.
Labor will shorten again once the first Opinion poll is published showing labor’s lead increasing. Punters are simply putting some $$’s on the uncertainty, not the result.
The Undertaker has said he wants to adopt Englands new anti-terror laws.
He is alive after all.
Stephen T:
I think Julia Gillard summary to the Press Club debate annihilated Shrek. He looked like death warmed up. She is extremely competent. Rudd has to use her more. I bet myself the media would run with the intro and sure enough have a look at the GG. ABC radio did the same thing. It is so bloody sexist. The opposition has got to get over pussy footing around and take charge just as Gillard did today. It is so biased it is bloody shitty. Her summary was a king hit and somehow needs to get decent exposure.
I also know well-off labor types who’ve put some reddies on LNP on the basis that if the neo-fascists get back in, they’ll win enough to throw a really good wake
“I reckon the bookies would love to talk up a coalition win right now”
Yep.
Good call Rod.
Bookies are a little like horse trainers. It’s not what they say, it’s what they do. Hmm bit like the liberal party as well.
On the rates rise, given the “shocking” title…
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22717627-12377,00.html
one would think this was a plus for Labor. I think this is all part of the MSM playing in to the “economic worry” narrative bring peddled by Howard.
Much has been written lately on this tactic – and at first glance it does seem desperate – but ANY campaign being fought on the economy will favour the LNP.
If Rudd does engage he must not stand blow for blow on the economic minutiae but redefine the issue in a way which doesn’t scare the horses. Not easy for Labor but on ABC radio news just now, I think he’s done it!
Something like “there’s been an interest rate rise every 15 weeks since the introduction of Workchoices”. If ever there was a campaign master-stroke, this is it. To lay the rate rises at the foot of the IR ogre is to not only drag the debate on to his (Rudd’s) patch but to tie economic incompetence to the IR incompetence. Breathtaking.
Rudd’s claim is a stretch, of course, but Hockey didn’t mind using the ridiculous claim that Workchoices was responsible for lowering unemployment etc and also refusing to release the findings of the Govt’s own research.
The strong support for LNP since the rates rise looks like Coalition insiders are aware of a blitz on the airwaves coming up. They would have been planning their response for some time now given the strong likelihood of a rise and now it’s happened – look out to be saturated.
Kudelka is puuting out 101 uses as a book on 16th nov
http://www.101usesforajohnhoward.com/2007/11/02/the-book-of-the-blog/
might get a couple of copies to send to the GG and ABC-rub salt in the wound
I have seen Gerrad Daffy if that is his correct name from Centre Bet at least 5 to 6 times on TV and radio over the past few weeks and no matter what the news or the polls or the prices and bets. He sproukes (sic) for the libs. Now he may well want them in his heart to win but in his head he wants to drum up business. So he has to flog the dead horse.
Reality check on the betting: the shortest odds for the Libs are at Centrebet, which has them at 3.15, with Labor at 1.36.
In other words, the L/NP coalition is a 30% chance of winning the election. And that is, at best.
Remember people a moving average will smooth and show trend but will not well represent the situation as it is today
For example, if all the polls this week show 51/49 in favour of the Coalition, this or other series that use moving averages will show Labor in front (but a narrowing towards the coalition).
The narrowing (and narrowing is what this is good at reporting),of 2% since last time is the problem for Labor if it continues.
I just put my $100 free bet from Sportingbet on Maxine in Bennalong @ $2.60 (open a account, deposit $30 and you get a free $100 bet). I put my own $30 on Nicole Cornes in Boothby at $3.00, she hasn’t been the glamour candidate the dills in ALP head office thought she would be but is a good chance in a general swing.
I don’t think the interest rate rise is going to have a big impact it’s been on the radar for some time and most punters would have factored it in, it might be worth 1% and it will firm the so called soft support and starve Rodent and Captain Smirk of clear air.
55 It’s a bigger problem for the mass of young Libs who are backing the coalition to win based on Costello telling them that rising interest rates is good economic management because the young Libs suffer a double loss on election night.
ifonly @ 55
You are assuming though that the most recent number in the series is more reliable, but the moving average is used precisely because it is not. ie the latest prediction could simply be statistical noise.
On the contrary, ifonly, a moving average will show the situation as it is today, if the polls contain random statistical error, and this error cancels out over time, or between polls.
Rupert Murdoch is a businessman, pure and simple. His every action is to increase profits. He has a history of backing winners with his papers so they give him favourable media law changes, eg media ownership. He will be sizing up where his empire will be best placed and will not want a hostile Labor party. Watch the News rags jump ship in the last two weeks when Rudd starts to campaign if the polls continue to show a Labor win.
Of course there’s a slight narrowing – there is, and there will be – Labor will not win 58-42 on election night, nor 56-44. Noone has seriously predicted that.
It’ll be close – which is not good for my blood pressure. I am sure elections contribute to heart disease with the stress they cause us poor observers… as good an argument as any for 4 year terms.
Maybe the backing for the Coalition is in anticipation of the ’scandal’ about Rudd. This would make more sense than the rate rise.
We’ll see soon enough I guess.
I’m betting on Labor in Higgins
Moo Too
There has been a slight shift to the coalition. Betfair: ALP 1.37 out to 1.39 / LIB 3.60 in to 3.50. A rate rise had been factored into the market. I reckon the next ACN poll will be crucial.
What about the cup winner?
It wins the Vic Derby last year like a champion.
It’s form is clear now; dead, 4th, dead, dead.
On form it should have started a longer price. Big result to the “insiders”.
Like I once said to Sideline Eye – You don’t do the form to pick winners, you do the form to pick the market. I’m so kicking myself!
56
Clarence the clocker Says:
November 7th, 2007 at 5:35 pm
I may open an acc too.
A very safe way to make money on that, would be put your $100 on Maxine and the $30 on the coalition outright, as I think the libs will not win if Howards does not hold his seat. So you go for the big buzz of seeing howard lose both soft and hard and you make around 250 odd on your 30 dollar investment. But if he does get back you make 60 odd dollars and can afford to drown your sorrows at the bookies expense.
Howard at $1.42 is a bit of a joke. I’d say the rodent has been splurging big time on himself so as to make it look as if he’s a winner. McKew at $2.65 is a good bet.
When is the next major poll due?
ACNielsen is next right?
Definitely a case of separate universes. Reality challenged! Must be Lloyd Williams punting.
Okay so whats everyones opinion on the Interest Rate rise effect??
Labor Up?
Liberals Up?
No Change?
ruawake @ post #40, if you’r calling Higgins get onto the bookmakers you can get 8 to 1 for the ALP, a bit of a roughie but spending the winnings on a good cool climate chardonnay would be the sweetest tasting victory cup of all.
LaborVoter
Just listening to talkback on ABC radio Brissy. The punters are going ballistic, home owners – renters – pensioners – would be buyers.
HMAS Rodent just took a massive broadside.
Clarence the clocker
Where do you think I put my free $100 why piss about with $160 when you can get $700
No change. Voters have already factored in that the Liberals are a bunch of economic dunces and liars.
Just flicked into TEN News for a moment, and caught the last half of the Libs scare commercial – capitalizing on the rise in rates. It’s an interesting strategy – particularly with all that red on the screen. If you dropped in on a spaceship, you might think “Labor bad, Libs good”, but if you’d actually been living in this country for a while, wouldn’t you tend to think “Ratbag bastards!”?
It’s a pure Karl Rove strategy – attack from weakness. But will it work?
72 – ruawake – is the general response for or against the government?
I wanna see McKew back at $3 so I can put another big bet on her..
K Jin @ # 66, laying off your bets ! Oh ye of little faith.
76
Michael Says:
HMAS Rodent just took a massive broadside. Not happy John.
You’d have to think that anyone stupid enough to fall for a coalition scare campaign over interest rates right after a rate rise would already be voting liberal…
or is that wishful thinking?
What you are all forgetting is that now the economy will be front and centre for the rest of the campaign, it will over shadow it, something Rudd doesn’t want. Rudd wants us to think about Iraq, Climate Change and his education revolution not the economy and interest rates.
Did anybody see that chart Howie had brilliant effort, just goes to show you that while interest rates may be rising now they are still lower than they were under Hawke Keating and the average is still lower even more so.
So with the so-called narrowing I guess Johnnie and Peter can just expect a considerable thumping instead of a massive thumping. At least they’ll be able to blame the Reserve Bank if they go down.
Adam: what are the further 10 seats in play? Surely Bennelong and Wentworth are two of them?
Bryce
It looks like the rudd ’scandal’ might be a no-goer. The editor of the tele has written to Crikey saying that the rumor is rubbish…..
No change. But it will firm up the “soft” Labor vote to a “firm” one. That makes it much harder for the Narrowing to happen further.
ruawake
I wouldn’t no what to do with $700, why be greedy? you must be a liberal voter.
So whats the “scandal” on Rudd thing?? Ive seen it referred to on another posting in the same sentence as Piers (iccky) Ackerman.
Clarence @71, I give Labor a 20% chance in Higgins, all things considered, including the state swing, the tendency for the swing to be higher in safe liberals, the proximity to safe labor seats, and of course, smirky.
So 8:1 is pretty good.
Glen
Its irrelevant – charts have no effect on “Oh crap I have to pay the bank more. “
If you want to be a smartarse, do the following:
Put your $100 free bet on Labor in the seat of McMillan, at odds of 2.4.
Then open an account at CentreBet and put $80 on the Coalition (hold your nose) in the same seat, at odds of 1.75.
If Labor wins, you will make a $60 profit (240 – 100 – 80).
If the Libs win (vomits quietly), you will make a $60 profit (80*1.75 – 80).
A cool $60 guaranteed. Free money, so why not take the bookies for a ride.
ABC Radio’s PM program interviewed voters in Lindsay and Deakin.
A quarter of those they interviewed in Lindsday are changing their votes from Liberal to Labor, because of interest rates.
In Deakin: they couldn’t find one person intending to vote Liberal
Perhaps that poll everyone last week ridiculed wasn’t so far fetched after all?
Have been reading you guys religiously for the last few weeks and feel it is time to contribute. Think my take is somewhat different but feeling strongly that this will follow the same lines as Qld election and libs will get what is coming. Baseball bats. Labor must come out swinging and work the indignation line hard. Time to really put the boot in. I think it is fair to say that this won’t change votes, but may make them much more solid…. ie stop the slight movement towards the govenment…. basically locking in people who have been “saying” they will vote labor, to actually voting labor on the day.
Laborvoter 70
Possum commitus pretty comprehensively proved on his blog a few days ago that statistically, when interest rates go up, support for the government goes down, and has done for some years, regardless of who is in power. The relationship was very stable (R2 of over 0.7). In fact he even was able to predict the average impact of a 25 point rise. from memory it was worth about 0.9 percent on 2PP.
Of course, that is a long term average. Given the song and dance Howard made about interest rates last time, I’d be amazed if this didn’t cost them at least 1% support 2PP. To me that makes the best guess of the next Newspoll for Monday ALP 55/45 on 2PP. If it showed a shift to the Liberals I’d want to see the data myself before I believed it.
Glen – you’re right, it’s a pretty clever strategy. I’m not sure it’ll work though. Admittedly, if labor was in government, i’d be more impressed
P.S. Labor voters can’t afford a punt with mortgages going up!
81 [Did anybody see that chart Howie had brilliant effort, just goes to show you that while interest rates may be rising now they are still lower than they were under Hawke Keating and the average is still lower even more so.]
That wasn’t a chart Glen, the young Libs had cut both sides off it to render it useless. It never even had Howard’s brillant 22% record interest rates on it.
Receipe:
Mix Liberal drowning men with Economic management straws and clutch Johnnie, clutch.
“under Hawke Keating”
That was 20 years ago, and that is Howard’s problem. The more he runs that line, the more he looks like yesterday’s man, which is exactly as the Labor party want to portray him.
We are just about now in the home straight. Only a huge event can now shift this election.
LaborVoter
Labor up … lots of voters believed Howard’s interest rate “promise” at the last election and now feel betrayed. They will, I think, vote accordingly – particularly those with little understanding of the workings of the RBA. They trusted Howard and he let them down.
ABC radio: Howard and Costello apologise for rate rise! That’s accepting blame in my book.
Derek @ 99 — yes, if Howard/Costello don’t say sorry they are arrogant, if they do then they are admitting its their fault.
Catch 22.
Watching 7 news, pro-Rudd coverage on the interest rate rise.
Ashley @ #90 profit from an unthinkable liberal victory, how disgusting, you must be closet liberal.
And you’re forgetting that the Coalition are economic dunces who think inflation is good, and interest rates rising even better.
Sean 84
What a surprise, a false rumour of a Labor scandal in a week the coalition knew it was in trouble
As for the Liberals new strategy, Labor should just take it head on: say that the Liberals are running a scare campaign about the safety of having them in charge if there are high interest rates precisely because they expect them to be high and have no strategy to fix teh problem. Liberal economic policy has been a failure. Their own pork-barreling has caused inflation. The best tactic for Labor now is to promise responsibility. Happily Swan has already realised this.
Another tactic to take with the Liberals: we have all seen what Howard has done to health, education and infrastructure spending when times are good. What would Howard do to them when times were tough and they needed to cut spending? The only alternative is to take back the tax cuts. None of us can really imagine them introducing any real reform to solve the problem.
All of this is completely over analysed.
Interest rates up = kick the government. It’s that simple.
Frankly, if Labor can’t turn this to their advantage, after what Howard said in 2004, then they don’t deserve to win.
Glen, did the chart show that interest rates fell under the last labor government 93-96 and have risen with this government?
ShowsOn i am afraid i have not seen any evidence that senior Coalition Ministers have said inflation was good, the general feeling is that alot of the inflation pressures are from factors outside our control like the drought and oil prices.
Even Glenn Stevens said Howie’s IR reform has stopped a wages blow out thus the Coalition has done everything it can with its policies to reduce rates but its not been enough especially considering the factors outside its control.
The question voters will say is Interest Rates are on the rise but can Labor with their inexperienced team and bad record on the economy make the situation better, and answer is no ShowsOn and that is why the incumbent should retain support.
Some of us know enough about the Libs dirty tricks playbook to know that these little games that amuse us all are actually engineered at Lib HQ.
The truth is that any “rush” to put money on the coalition is coming from – yep you guessed it – a coalition slush fund. Like most things they do in these dying days – its all about creating a perception – to keep the rusted on’s, rusted on. And if their agenda aligns with the bookies then they probably don’t even need to outlay too much.
Come to think of it their whole agenda is about perception – cause they don’t have anyone with the intellect to do anything else – having ceded all their real power to the el rodente circus. Just look at how quickly Costello’s crew fell into line.
But perception is not a very reliable or clever way to run a country – OK they have been doing it for a while now and obviously have become quite good at it – but eventually the punters smell a rat – and revolt.
Eventually even the GG will see the writing on the wall and try to ease themsleves back into the OZ mainstream. God knows what they will do with Dennis and the rest though. We do need to have a plan to deal with them post 24/11 – beyond slashing and burning these clowns. I would definately like to be a fly on the wall around the robust discussion between Kevin and Rupert on Monday 26th November.
106 Indeed it did Centre and that was what was so good about it. The Liberal Interest rate strategy is in tatters.
As always, the best coverage will be on the Chaser tonight. Garretts joke and Abbotts no show will figure prominently. Sadly, the boys won’t be able to include Costello’s disgraceful “Rising interest rate mean Ive done a good job” comment which for me is the *uck-up of the campaign and will go down in history as the worst double-speak on record.
This ‘trend’ is interesting as it puts the ALP still within the overall range that it has been in all year – 54-56% TPP.
If we compare with this time (in the election) three years ago, the difference is massive, with the Coalition still on target to lose – at this stage.
Of course, there is always the “Labor is almost always 2% overestimated in federal polls’ theory, which, if we take seriously, STILL has Labor winning close to my prediction of 79 seats.
Didn’t see the new thread.
http://jmcdonald.org/opinion/?p=51
This should be posted everywhere, which refers to Kohler’s debunking of Howard’s interest rate lie. No not the one where he says the Liberals never said record lows. Nor the lie about him personally never mentioned record lows. But the lie about Liberals always having lower interest rates then Labor.
Interesting to look at the two camps today – Howard and Costello looking like they had just been hit by lightening – Rudd laughing and relaxed.
I can imagine the converstaion “Peter you said there would not be an interest rate rise in November – I knew I should have called the election last weekend”. “John we are skewered mate”
Ruawake
I would have thought that Menzies would go before Higgins, especially if the incumbent reminds everyone who he is by actually campaigning.
Labor’s brand new attack ads on interest rates just on Channel 9!
Finally, Labor ads on Sydney TV!
Maybe commercial television is finally deserting the Rodent?
@ 5 Chris Says:
Julie Owens MP for Parramatta (a marginal) was at the corner of Federal Road and Prospect Hihghway most of today (Wednesday) in blusterand clod weather. As you can see at http://preview.tinyurl.com/3cox8a it’s a vacant lot adjacent to a very busy Highway and the road out of Centro Seven Hills. She had a couple of the Light on the Hill faithful for company. I wandered over and engaged the still attractive 50 year old in some light hearted banter. It seems that party HQ is not spending a razoo on her campaign and no current party heavyweights are joining with her on the hustings. She didn’t seem too fussed although she claimed that she was 2.5% behind after the redistribution and the issues with enrolments.
Connoisseurs of politics who have a moment or two spare on Saturday should come out to her campaign office in Best Road, Sevo (Prospect Hwy end) at around 12 noon when Hawkie will be there to perform the opening ceremony.
This should be a far jollier event than its equivalent in 2004 when the Latho launched the campaign for Greenway of the doomed Ed Husic in the old bank offices across the road from Jools’ place. This launch was notable for the photo that appeared in some papers of a lonely John Faulkner sitting on a chair morosely staring into space contemplating the sad fate ahead.
5
Chris Says:
I often read but don’t usually contribute, but does anyone else think that it’s time for Labor to follow through with the big guns? I’m getting nervous!
Or is the buffer so big not to matter?
If Labor can win without spending a swag of cash on ads, etc., or getting too dirty, then all the better. But my guess is they are just about to open up across most fronts. They are in the driving seat and can choose their tactics, a luxury the government does not have.
Why would people be throwing away there money on the coalition now that the interest rates have gone up? What is their thinking?
“its not been enough especially considering the factors outside its control.”
Then why promise to keep interest rates at record lows?
That is what the voters will remember.
Howard made them a promise he was never in a position to keep.
The voters will punish him for it.
This means you should read more. Costello today very clearly said that inflation is an unavoidable consequence of economic growth.
This demonstrates once and for all how economically retarded he is.
We spent the 1980s trying to kill off the connection between inflation and growth, Costello has now given up and said what we tried to do in the 1980s was for nothing. He has just refuted the last 20 years of economic reform in Australia, and said it is all wrong.
Ergo, Costello is an economic dunce who should not be anywhere near our economy.
Labor’s interest rate hike ads are already in full swing. Anyone else seen them?
Yes, but where’s the graph?
I wish someone (Possum? RatesAnalyst?) could do up a graph and post it somewhere we could link to it. A picture is worth a thousand words as they say.
Dunno where you get the data, but presumably RatesAnalyst might.
While I doubt the intelligence of some voters, I think most have at least subconsciously figured this much out:
The latest ads go ‘how much higher will interest rates go under Labor’.
This has the obvious premise that the government either directly controls interest rates or due to its policies, influences them.
Problem here is, if the voters believe this then they will make the connection that interest rates have risen under Howard because of his policies.
Spin it the other way. If a voter sees interest rates as ‘imposed by the gods’ then all the ads do is further damage the credibility of the Liberals.
Gary Bruce – are they effective, in your opinion?
I’m sometimes wonder about election ads – they seem to follow the same formula every time, and I wonder if they’ve ever tried doing it slightly differently…
As I said before. The faux campaign is over, the starters gun has been fired by Stevens.
Bye Bye Liberals.
HH.. More likely the labor attack ads have been planned weeks in advance
Actually an election ad said that and only twice, Howard’s mantra throughout the 2004 campaign Spiros was actually that Interest Rates would always be lower under a Coalition government than a Labor government and this is still the case so i don’t believe he has lied.
Spiros Howard could claim they’d be lower under him than Latham because Labor can’t manage money and their last period of government shows this they buggered it all up and i have no doubt should Rudd win, rates will go to close to 8 or 9% from the 6.75 they are now, namely because of their IR policy and their inability to maintain budget surplus’s.
Why would voters punish Howard when the alternative the ALP would increase Interest Rates further?
There’s duelling interest rate ads on TV at the moment – dominating the news broadcasts. The Libs are running their scare ad at twice the rate of the ALPs. No doubt the ALP is holding fire for the last week. Overall, the rate rise will be a minus for the incumbent.
Glen, you have no evidence Labor would increase interest rates. Stop swallowing the crap fed to you by Liberal Party HQ!
Glen – I think you do doubt that they would go to 8 or 9 per cent if Labor wins, but it’s a good line.
Glen when Garrett made that gaffe we were critical of him. What do you think of Tips gaffe that they could hold the election in November because there is NO WAY there is going to be a rate rise. LOL
All Tip – economic credibility – ZERO
Albert Ross, your efforts on behalf of the stinking corpse that is the NSW Liberal Party are quite heroic. Parramatta is as safe as houses for Labor and the campaign is quite right not to spend any money on it. NSW Labor at the moment is concentrating on Bennelong, Wentworth, North Sydney, Robertson, Cowper, Gilmore and Greenway.
ShowsOn if “Costello is an economic dunce” what does that make Wayne ‘Rooster’ Swan and Kevin Rudd (a 1 year leader), “economic pre-schoolers”???
Elections are about choice ShowsOn they have a competent Coalition Government and an inexperienced ALP with an inexperience front bench and an inexperience leader. That’s why i believe this election is not over yet!
Political parties don’t increase interest rates, economically retarded governments force the reserve bank to increase interest rates. Most recently this occured today.
But you may be right in one sense, it is possible that voters have already factored in how economically retarded the Liberal and National Parties are, and how they lie constantly about interest rates.
Btw, who is responsible for those shameful ads by the National Farmers Federation? And why aren’t the farmers themselves complaining about the waste of their money?
Glen
Howard said he would keep interest rates at 30 year lows – FACT.
Liberal Party advertising said interest rates at record lows – FACT.
Howard will lose – FACT
Posted from the other thread because no one was listening.
My mother in law has been interviewed on AM for tomorrows show about interest rates. Asked if they would affect the way she votes, she said no. She was then asked if they would affect the way she votes if there was another rise she said no, but John Howard has been there far too long and she was sure all her children were voting him out.
The coalition government is incompetent, because they think inflation is good for the economy, and that interest rate increases are a sign of good economic management.
These are abusrd conclusions, even by your standards.
Face facts Glen, they are scraping the absolute bottom layer of the barrel now. They have absolutely nothing left.
I’m wondering if poll frequency impacts these figures.
To show what I mean, I’ve taken the major polls and roughly lined them up
Morgan, Newspoll, AC Nielsen, Galaxy. 2pp
(I had to shift dates a little…polletic licence)
01/09/2007 40.0 41.0
08/09/2007 41.0
15/09/2007 43.5 45.0 43.0 44.0
22/09/2007 39.5
29/09/2007 39.0 44.0
06/10/2007 42.5
13/10/2007 42.5 44.0 44.0
20/10/2007 44.0 42.0 46.0 47.0
27/10/2007 42.5 46.0
03/11/2007 –.- 47.0 43.0 46.0
So should they take
-the last 5 from each poll or
-the last months figures
-the last months average figures for each poll then average the result
etc
Labor’s ad goes to credibility. Howard says Who can you trust us to keep interest rates low. They show the number of interest rate rises and finish with Howard’s response, “Working families have never had it so good.” Quick and effective. I’ve seen it about 6 times since the news began. Flogging it.
Adam what do Labor think of their winning chances in Greenway?
“Interest Rates would always be lower under a Coalition government”
This is pure assertion, untested, unproven and unproveable. Howard got away with it last time because (a) interest rates went down in his 2001-2004 term and (b) he was up against Latham. Howard could have said that Latham will cause bubonic plague and got away with it.
But as Abraham Lincoln once said, you can fool some of the people all of the time, and all of the people some of the time, but you can not fool all of the people all of the time.
“Why would voters punish Howard when the alternative the ALP would increase Interest Rates further?”
Because what might happen under Labor is hypothetical and speculative, whereas the interest rate rises in the past three years have actually happened.
Padua did not make a gaffe, he merely stated that he believed IR would not have to go up in November, this was of course before the CPI figures were released.
When you have such a strong economy as ours it is susceptible to inflationary pressures and some of them are unavoidable, look how bad the drought is look at how oil has gone from $20US a barrel when Howard was elected in PM to being $96US a barrel. I think you should have some respect for someone who’s is and for ever shall be the longest serving Treasurer of Australia who could not possibly be a dunce as ShowsOn so crudely suggests.
ShowsOn if one side of politics is economically ‘retarded’ why is it not the ALP, who had 17% interest rates, 1 million unemployed and 96b of commonwealth debt?
How ironic it was for Howard to pick Keatings favorite Mahler for the cup.
I wonder if you could track it, if Rudd backing the cup winner will swing more votes than the interest rate rise ?
Adam, what are your insider Labor sources saying about Boothby and Sturt?
Gary Bruce – how does it compare with the government’s advertising?
Glen you state, “rates will go to close to 8 or 9% from the 6.75 they are now, namely because of their IR policy”
Explain how.
Labor has no show in Greenway, unfortunately. The boundaries have changed to favour the Liberals. It is solid bible belt territory now – the Liberals’ new heartland.
Glen: You have a shockingly bad memory to regurgitate that debunked lie.
Luckily enough, instead of refinding my past post of your lies, I now have news articles.
http://www.smh.com.au/news/opinion/the-treasurer-is-mainly-pretence/2007/11/06/1194329223119.html?page=2
http://thebulletinelection.ninemsn.com.au/yesterdays_hero.htm
You only do your party harm by continuing to spout lies like Howard.
Latest odds (5.50pm Wed 7/11/07) [with changes in ALP win probability since 5/11/07]
(vig in brackets)
IASbet (4.2%)
ALP: 1.37 – 70 % [-0.8]
Coal: 3.20 – 30%
Portlandbet (5.5%)
ALP: 1.33 – 71.3% [-1.6]
Coal: 3.30– 28.7%
SportsAcumem (5.2%)
ALP: 1.36 – 69.9% [-4.4]
Coal: 3.15 – 30.1%
Centrebet (5.2%)
ALP: 1.36 – 69.9% [-1.7]
Coal: 3.15 – 30.1%
Sportsbet (4.9%)
ALP: 1.34 – 71.1% [-3.2]
Coal: 3.30 – 28.9%
Sportingbet (6.1%)
ALP: 1.32 – 71.4% [no change]
Coal: 3.30 – 28.6%
6 bookie ALP win probability is 70.6% [-1.95]
News reports have suggested that bookies have been taking some big bets for the Coalition over recent days. I suspect that this is a direct result of Tuesday’s Newspoll, which indicated a slight improvement in the Coalition’s fortunes.
For what it’s worth, the variation between prices offered by all six bookies is minor: .15 (3.15 – 3.30) for the Coalition, and .05 (1.32 – 1.37) for the ALP. On 5/11/07 it was .40 for the Coalition and .08 for the ALP.
128 alpal, I’ve seen far more Labor ads than Liberal ads throughout the news (9 Melbourne). In fact only one Liberal ad and about 6 Labor ads.
Er Glen
Did it occur to you that the price of Oil is in the North American Peso? If the US Dollar falls of course the cost of a barrel will increase.
The price of petrol at the bowser has not gone up much in the last Qtr. ‘Cause Keating flosted the $A.
Actually the ALP has cut their interest rate ads back to one third of planned levels, because the Libs have decided to do the other two thirds of it for them for free.
Their approach is laughable: “if you think this is bad, think how much worse it will be if you elect them”. A bad tactical move which will backfire. People can tell when they are getting bullsh*tted.
Yeah just saw the Liberals recycling their 2004 interest rate scare campaign on TV!
POLITICAL SUICIDE.
Hewson on A Current Affair.
Glen:
That experience line is pure bullshit.
I know what I prefer over experience, good judgement.
Experience led us into Iraq, AWB and high interest rates.
Look at Bill Gates, did he have experience before he started Microsoft/
Meanwhile, look at all the experienced directors of Enron.
Just like Enron, the Liberals with their lies and incompetence will finally get whats coming to them.
And Keating won the 1993 election when there were a million people unemployed. Face it, no matter how bad Labor was when they completely restructed the economy, voters thought the Liberals were worse.
Today demonstrates how right they are. The Liberals can’t be trusted, because they think inflation is good, and interest rate increases even better.
You also failed to mention that Howard’s recession in 1982 knocked 4.5% of GDP, which is the biggest recession since the depression.
yep spiros @ 105 is so on the money. the average voters are not generally sophisticated enough to look at the reasons why interest rates go up and down. All they remember is the spiel from howard from the last election re interest rates. They “perceive” that howard has misled them. Where this apparent betting money for the coalition is coming from in imo surely cant be from the interest rate rise?
Labor’s IR policy would lead to wage blow outs because the Unions would be front and centre when deciding pay increases and also pattern bargaining which would be the result of having Combet, Crean, Ferguson, Shorten, in a Rudd ministry, they are all Union hacks.
The Coalition’s policy stops wages blow outs, increases real wages sustainably and has helped to provide more jobs thanks to taking away unfair dismissal laws.
Glen: Study Economics 101
http://www.smh.com.au/news/opinion/the-treasurer-is-mainly-pretence/2007/11/06/1194329223119.html
@ 132 Adam foams:
Adam,
I am not a defender of the Liberals or the the ALP for that matter. Far from it – I dislike both because of the way they have treated western Sydney – very badly. However I quite like Julie Owens, she works hard, is responsive to her constituents and I hope she retains her seat (she’ll get my second preference) and gets a junior ministry
The purpose of my post was to give a little colour to the observation and query made by Chris in his post.
Need I mention the US presidency? Every single president walks into the White House with no experience at the job. And they only get 2 terms before they have to quit and leave the job for another newbie. One mustn’t forget the role of the institutions and public servants that make it all happen.
Glen:
More lies. Can’t any Liberal argue honestly?
The people who spout this type of nonsense regardless of parties should be strung up.
Pattern bargaining will not be available.
http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,21688141-5000117,00.html
This is utter stupidity.
So no wage blow outs yet an increase in wages.
And easier to sack people and more jobs.
Not only do you fail economics 101, but logic 101.
Just indulging myself and reposting this as interest rates is flavour of the day. Resurrecting something I wrote on another site during the 2004 campaign. I wrote to Latham to fight the Libs on interest rates but they didn’t. I’m feeling much more optimistic in 2007!
————————–
The Lindsay Electorate
Despite our extensive leaflet dropping and handouts, the Lindsay voter turnout for the ‘Defend Your Democracy’ forum in Penrith on 18/9 was very disappointing.
That was quite a stark contrast to the full house the following day at the same venue when John Howard (along with Tony Abbott, Jackie Kelly, Ross Cameron etc) was there to bribe all the western seats. (BTW it was the first time I shouted at someone in Australia – Shame, Howard shame)
Labor is unable to counter the scare campaign on interest rates and the economy in this area. I have plans to drop leaflets on interest rates and the economy as part of our grassroots campaign. There is only a handful of us helping. I have a good article from The Age on ‘The Truth about John Howard and Interest Rates.’ Does anyone out there have any other articles I can use? Unfortunately, Truth in government is not high up on the local electorate’s priorities. They are worried about their mortgages.
It is really depressing as most of the locals should really be pro-public health and education. I am feeling rather desperate and helpless in Lindsay.
HA: You’re a trooper. Lindsay will be a tough nut, but, in the words of Aragorn, ‘There is always hope’. A letterbox campaign specifically targetting the interest rate issue sounds like an excellent strategy. Can anyone help? Email me if you want me to pass your contact details on to …….
Lindsay voter: How’s it looking on the ground this election?
You Lib freaks think too highly of the average Aussie brain capacity. The whole ‘Interest rates have gone up, so who is best to manage interest rates’ will not compute in the average Aussie brain.
The normal reaction to anything that hurts a true blue Aussie, is this:
‘Who the f*ck just hit me?’
‘Oh, it was you, was it?’
‘Well, f*ck you,’
then they put the bastard on his ass.
Its as simple as that.
The Libs have hurt the voter, now the voter is gonna hurt the Libs.
10 interest rate rises in a row……ah johnnie it must seem like when you were last treasurer.
Glen
You can’t have it both ways. Labor and the unions via “The Accords” made wage rises contingent on productivity,
The last “wage breakout” was when Howard was treasurer.
Ha ha does not matter. Howard is stuffed.
Glen Says:
November 7th, 2007 at 6:30 pm
Glen look at the price oil has gone from before bush and your leader invaded Iraq and what it is now. (135 % approx in a few years)
Wasn’t your employer who said invading Iraq would mean 20 dollars a barrell oil ?
Interesting sidelight: I heard Mal Brough quote a story off AM on local Bris radio today about how he heard someone say the price of Tomatoes had gone from 3 to 9 dollars a kilo. Add to that as of today, the price of money has gone up 20 % in the last 3 years and with petrol and house prices etc.
I do not believe the inflation figures put out by any goverment or quasi government (ie Reserve Banks) enitities. I have a mate who is a plumber. He tells me that just two years ago he sold copper skinned old Hotwater systems he had replaced to scrap yards for 10 dollars unstripped.Now he gets 50 dollars a old system. I bet that does not, like hundreds of other price increases get fed into the inflation measures. Cheaper Plasma does not a3 percent inflation rate make.
ShowsOn if one side of politics is economically ‘retarded’ why is it not the ALP, who had 17% interest rates, 1 million unemployed and 96b of commonwealth debt?
So says Glen.
Or treasurer John Howard who left office and the incoming Labor government with double digit inflation, unemployment, and interest rates.
Glen, besides Liberal party bylines do you have any real evidence how an IR policy which is more closely related to WorkChoices than Peter Reith’s 1996 WRA is going to increase interest rates.
Where are the Labor Paterson ads? Baldwin is now wall to wall.
Hewson believes the rate rise will help Howard. So if a rate rise hadn’t happened that would have helped Howard and now that it has that helps him as well? Are we in Noddy Land?
The ABC trumpet that Costello and Howard apologize for the rate rise today.
They didn’t apologize.
They said they were sorry the rise happened, as in, “I’m sorry you dropped a brick on your own foot, but don’t blame me for it.” I bet they were sorry.
Costello, when asked by the increasingly ineffectual Chris Uhlmann how he felt having to apologize denied he’d apologized at all. To paraphrase, Costello said: “I just said I’m sorry that sh*t happens. That’s not apologizing.”
There seems to be some kind of wierd strategy going on here where they get their stenographers in the ABC to say they apologized, so they don’t have to say the actual words themselves, and can in fact deny they ever said them. As I said: wierd.
Hewson is positioning himself to become the next Lib PM.
Ah mad cow, would you vote for a President who was a Governor of a State for 10 years or a Senator whose been there for 3 years? Which would have more experience for the job?? There is such a thing as experience and it does count, Beazley had experience and he almost won in 1998 and 2001, Latham had none in 2004 and got hammered likewise Peacock had no experience as leader and got pumped in 1984 and Howie got pumped in 1987 after being a leader for less than 3 years. You don’t want to debate experience because on experience Rudd has an F and Howard has a B+.
Rudd isn’t up for the job just yet, he may be in 2010 but he’s not now, you don’t understand how badly he would muck things up, with a little more time as Opposition Leader he might not stuff things up but why oh why would you vote for a person who has been a leader for only 1 year its insane?
96 steve Channel Nine News also pointed that glaring omission by the Liberals out. They also ran the ALP advertisement in the news segment.
Tomorrow’s headline:
“COALITION GOES ON FONT FOOT OVER RATE RISE – REALISES IT HAS NO FRONT FOOT!”
http://www.soaringsteps.org/images/artists/bates_full2.gif
Hewson – the political animal. He knows how to campaign…
Dinsdale Piranha at post 3 says: “Two blog comments shane-o, likely to follow the path of the great pamphleteers of 18th century Britain..”
Lol. Like your Python namesake Dinsdale, you are obviously a cruel man, but fair. Just don’t nail his head to the floor.
Can’t understand the punters putting heaps of dosh on the Libs after the interest rates announcement, though. Sounds like a put-up job to me. A bit like Howard’s advice yesterday to Rudd: Back my horse.
Hmmm, sound advice.
Not.
One thing’s for sure, all this dough on the Libs will make the bookies very happy come the 24th. They need the break too, after EI. I have every sympathy with the bookmakers of this fair land.
Not.
Liberal hands are safe and steady on the wheel
Labor hands are grubby and sweaty in the till
#165 I see more Lib posters and ads around. Don’t think it’s a given but it helps with the new boundaries. We have many small businesses and self-employed contractors in the Penrith area and so called aspirational voters. I carry a rights@work bag around the shops and occasionally come across a fellow sympathiser. The locals love Howard partly because of his Hansonite leanings.
Glen: Why would you vote for someone with no morals, integrity or accountability for the last 10 years?
176 Glen
Hawke was opposition leader onemonth, and he was a far better leader than Fraser or Howard.
Peacock came back later and lost in 1990.
Your one eyed defence of all things liberal is amusing, however, so please continue with it. I’m guessing you parrot most of your parents views?
The line Rudd and the ALP need to run with now is the Libs antidote to inflation is lower wages, our antidote is more valuable workers through education and training.
Asanque it is not a lie the ALP could bring back pattern bargaining after all according to Garrett when they get in ‘they’ll just change it all’.
Asanque im sure you are aware it is possible to have wages increases and have them being sustainable and linked to productivity. You fail economics 101 right there lol!
Glen, easy. Id vote for the guy who has the better policies and I feel I can trust.
Rudd.
My point about the US is that having spent years shining a seat in politics, does not necessarily make you an effective, responsible and fair leader. A lot of US presidents have had no ‘experience’.
In fact it could be argued that some of the Libs/Nats sitting on safe seats are a waste of good oxygen. So much for experience
Hahahahahaha…..awa’s increase productivity!
Glen: Sure they could, and the ALP could lie about the rest of their policies too.
But I’d rather take a chance on a party that hasn’t consistently lied and broken promises over the last 10 years (they have lots of experience on that).
And on your second point, I merely state Workchoices. And wait for you to apply your twisted logic as to how Workchoices has made that possible.
NB: I will preference Labor but will unlikely vote Labor this election.
I won’t vote for lying scumbags like Howard.
Ricky Hawke was a leader for decades in the Union movement, bad enough but at least he had leadership experience. What has Rudd led before he’s been leader for a year, the ear wax eaters anonymous???
“Glen: Why would you vote for someone with no morals, integrity or accountability for the last 10 years?”
That is your opinion Asanque i believe Howard has morals, has integrity and has been held to account since he took office in 1996.
Peacock was a fool who couldn’t beat Hawke when the ALP had rooted the economy so badly by 1990 god!!!! Serenity NOW!
Ricky that is a lame retort to someone’s arguments, we are influenced by more than just our parents, 13 years of Labor in Government can change their views on politics alot.
Bob Hawke was only Leader for less than 5 weeks and less than 3 years in parliament Glen. You Cannot argue that he wasnt a strong leader and a sucessful Prime Minister because he had the guts to reform the economy and he never lost an election.
Glen:
This has been the least accountable government in the history of Australian politics.
Ministers have only resigned when all else was lost for the government.
I give you Hollingsworth, Santoro, Vanstone, Reith.
How Downer kept his job after AWB, and Andrews after Haneef and Abbott after the Libs last policy backflip, one can only know. It sure ain’t accountability.
That’s not even mentioning Howard who never takes the blame for anything and always seeks to take the credit and is never accountable for anything he says.
Those lies over interest rates, children overboard and Iraq, should warrant criminal charges let alone immediate dismissal.
When interest rates go down, it’s John H*wards careful management of the economy. When they go up, it’s “global factors”.
“If you’re going to take credit for the sunshine, you better be prepared to take the blame for the rain!”
Or in our drought-ridden country: “If you’re going to take credit for the rain, you better be prepared to take the blame for the sunshine!”
Live by the lie, die by the lie, Mr. H*ward!
The fact that the lib adds have Whitlam in them must mean they are worring about the over 60/70/80 demo.(Howards peers). If you where 18 when Whitlam was thrown out you would now be 58.
http://www.ozforums.com.au/uploads/thumbs/140_goforgrowth.jpg
WHERE DID GOING FOR GROWTH GO FROM THIS SIGN???
If voters don’t punish the Coalition for such a blantant lie, then it is true that we deserve the government that we get.
Please voters, retain my faith in democracy!
Sydney street poll on ABC radio in the afternoon had ppl VERY non plussed re Howard and his interest rate promises. No one said they were going to vote coalition, partic amongst those who said they voted Howard last time. One guy said he was an idiot for doing so. Many to most previous Weasel* voters said they would give Rudd a go. Nuff said.
I was right Albrechtensen didn’t publish my comment which said that if she though Gillard was second rate errr what does that make her? So I commented again and politely informed her that Id posted it here.
Yeah the sportsbet plunge has caused Labor to drift from 1.– to 1.30. It’s devastating……not.
*Pardon did I say weasel? I meant Lying Rodent.
I’m just wondering why the Reserve Bank didn’t go the whole hog – like .5% – from what I’ve been reading that’s what’s needed to curb inflation at the moment – maybe election in the air????? And this aint political – please!!!
Trying to argue with Glen about Howard is like trying to argue with a religious fundamentalist about god…..Its pointless. His politics are of the ‘daddy told me’ variety and pretty much read like every dumb slogan the liberal party has thrown out for the last 20 years.
What do you really think glen….surely you’ve got an original thought somewhere.
Asanque, the Liberals didn’t just lie and break promises.
They committed the crime of using their senate majority to force through legislation that nobody wanted except the extreme right. For years and years people like Abbot, Costello and Howard were seething with a blind hatred for unions. Why? partly a class war. But mostly because the unions were seen as the last big obstacle to having a one party state.
An absolutely ghastly abuse of power. With no mandate. With no shame.
One hopes you’ll consider that in your senate vote
*Its time* Labor did take the Libs to task head on on who would be the better Economic manager and just challenge them up front….
Also reading Don WAtsons book on St Paul JK and there are suprising parallels between this eleciton and 1996. You know that Keating was considered better on the economy and the better pm? We forget how incompetent Howard was then, now he just plays to his strengths, that of being too decrepid to lie.
Shouldn’t Howard be on A.C.A. tonight so that Tracy Grimshaw can tell him what the new interest rate is?
Shows on I totally agree for blatant lies they deserve to be punished but whoever is in government their economic policies will be exactly the same. So no matter what next year interest rates will continue to rise.
And regarding housing affordability next year neither party will make it any easier for struggling home borrowers.
Sean its the same with Glen trying to argue with you Leftards about Rudd. I mean sheeesh how can you like a guy who eats ear wax??
@200 Sean
Bingo.
Glen,you are being hubristic as usual.
If one follows that dunce argument of yours about inexperience then there would never be an acceptable case to change government.There’s as much experience in the ALP parliamentary party as their is in the coalition.Have a good look at when the members were elected to their respective seats and you’ll see the majority were in fact elected in the last two to three parliaments,that’s both sides.
After all if experience was the criteria used to elect governments then Howard et al would’ve failed to meet the bar in ‘96.And,you know it!!
As to interest rates,if Hawke and Keating were responsible and accountable in the early ’90’s for their interest rate rises then Howard and Costello are responsible for their rises.The buck stops with them!!!!!
That is interesting that sportingbet had a ‘flock’ of punts on the coalition because their odds haven’t changed since yesterday.
http://jackman.stanford.edu/oz/Aggregate2007/bettingmarkets/index.php
So Glen you are a Prophet, looking into the future, you will become a false Prophet just like your Idol JWH.
JWH is also a false Prophet because he Prophised at the last election that he would keep interest rates at record lows.
Why is JWH a false Prophet, simple his Prophecy is a LIE!
mad cow Says:
November 7th, 2007 at 7:08 pm
“blind hatred for unions. Why? partly a class war. But mostly because the unions were seen as the last big obstacle to having a one party state.”
One party state is going way to far. If they wanted that they would just have cancelled the election not just delayed and delayed it. Abbott and Costello could easliy have been Labour guys. I think Bob Ellis may have had an idea why they are not. Howard has always had a chip on his shoulder and deep caverns. His hard done buy, hard working Dad and union lay abouts etc. But while he may play it hard, he is a small d democrat.
Hey Glen,
What happened to the “Go for Growth” sign that Howie has been dragging around the country?
And Dollar $weetie on the November rate rise, back in September? “I guarantee there won’t be a rise! No! No! No!”
They can’t look forward and they can’t look back.
I’m sure there some mental illness there you can slag off.
marky, I agree and disagree.
Labor has some clear policy differences in terms of education and infrastructure. The point being is to create growth that isn’t inflationary, and thus indirectly doesn’t threaten interest rates.
Problem is, the sorts of things that now have to be done to improve what the economists call ‘capacity’ take several years to show up in the system.
And the education bit. Well, the benefits of that don’t show up for a decade or more. Howard benefited from the investments of past governments. Now he’s used up his human capital.
Actually no Bob, Howard in 1996 had been leader for several years in the 1980s, been a Minister and an MP for years and years and had shadow portfolios throughout the 80s and 90s thus Howard had far more experience than Rudd i would have thought!
Sean i have my own political beliefs i don’t need others to indoctrinate me and to say that i have no political beliefs of my own demeans your character and your arguments because you lack any understanding that people my be right of centre and that if they are they are only that way because ‘daddy told them’. You are one sad individual if you think this.
Glen also must agree that the Chinese Communist Party is the best placed to run China since it’s so “experienced” running the People’s Republic since 1949!
Fool.
The real issue is that Howard politicized interest rates. Whether he also failed to re-invest in the Aust economy as Rudd intends to do is another matter entirely. Howard chose to make a stand on interest rates. That’s why he should be judged on them. It was a war of his choosing….(like Iraq and the US).
Also John Faine said today that 2 months ago he told Costellot that Costello was mad to be holding an eleciton with the possibility of an interest rate rise. Costello looked him in the eye and betting his reputation on it said, ‘There will be NO interest rate rise in November.’
True.
Glen what are you going to do when your IDOL is destroyed?
@216 AM
His type will always find another false idol. Baaaaaaaaaaaaa!
John Ryan:
Better still, Castro is obviously the only leader with the requisite experience to run Cuba.
And don’t get me started on those MDC whippersnappers saying that Mugabe’s time is up!
I think you guys are too hard on Glen. Without him all you guys would have to do is sit around and discuss your Kevin Rudd Fantasies.
Remember as well that if things dont turn out as Rudd plans, it will be Glen here on election night laughing his head off at you lot.
Ive heard Alpacas are good to defend sheep against foxes. Maybe he’ll attatch himself to an alpaca and consider it a ‘good economic manager’
@Thommo
Stiff, if that happens we’ll ALL continue to pay the price – you and us.
Dear oh dear,Glen, you are getting absolutely slaughtered here. Maybe it’s time for you to crawl back into your hole for a while and lick your wounds.
219
Give it a rest, I don’t see Glen’s IDOL JWH having much mercy on others do you?
Oh no Gerr. If that happens the silent majority of Australians will feel comforted that the country is safe for another 3 years.
Sportingbet odds are still ALP 1.32, coalition 3.30. Can’t have been too much of a plunge on the Libs.
I think this is a piece of propaganda, as someone remarked above – try to get some ‘momentum’ when you’re dead in the water. You probably only need to drop $10k or so to get the bookies to say something – they’re very keen to pump up their market, after all.
I also don’t think the Crikey rumour has any legs, although I wouldn’t necessarily trust the Daily Tele editor (who sort-of denied the Crikey rumour in today’s Crikey email). They (the libs) don’t have much going except attack ads and an extraordinarily twisted argument about trusting us because we’re the ones who’ve f#$ked you over on interest rates and will promise to f@#k you over on wages growth by making sure you don’t get any (as Joe so cleverly pointed out in today’s debate). BTW, their new slogan appears to be the Australian flag.
John Ryan they aren’t a democracy so they don’t count, also they don’t allow major opposition parties to take part in elections thus no other side can have experienced political leaders.
You are the fool for comparing Australia, a liberal democratic country to China, a Communist dictatorship.
AM if that happens ill be supporting Costello or Turnbull or Bishop if they are Opposition Leader. Why should i back Rudd when he could be a 1 termer, and if he implements his policies and there is an economic down turn maybe with luck he’ll be a Scullin lol!
If anybody believes in false idols it’s your obsession with Rudd, he has moved the centre left ALP to the centre right and he has done this only to try and win an election, at least my political party doesn’t surrender its core beliefs to win.
I admire Howard i don’t idolize him.
I get it Thommo is a Glen Alais!
Glen, our country is no longer democratic. Howard and his hoons in the senate put paid to that.
My feeling is that after this week, the ALP should try and get the agenda back onto health, education and the environment (renewables v nuclear). There is a risk that talking too much about the economy / finance / interest rates etc feeds an issue that the libs own (economic management).
226
Makes a lot of sense a LIAR admiring a LIAR!
226. Excellent point Glen. People praise Rudd to the high heavens but does anyone really know what he stands for?
Love Howard or loathe him you have to admire if anything, his determination. No one on here can call him a Coward, if you do your lying. He has made some unpopular decisions and he is going to face the people in a few weeks. A weaker leader would have quit months ago. Or if your in the ALP someone would have stabbed you in the back
Will we are having an election Will and our politicians are held accountable, we are democratic and to say that we aren’t is un-Australian mate you should be ashamed for thinking such left wing claptrap!
Mad Cow. The use of monetary policy and our crazy concern with inflation is what i am concerned with. Both parties now follow the same mantra. Monetary policy should be mixed with fiscal policy in slowing the economy down and unfortunately it is not. Tax rates should be increased for the weathly and capital gains taxes concessions and negative gearing scraped. These measures would decrease the switch the affect of interest rate rises from the middle and lower classes to the wealthy groups of the economy.
Education and infrastructure measures will do very little to reduce the pain. The inflation increases are being caused by the drought and higher oil prices.
Monetary policy is the wrong policy because it takes time to slow the economy and no doubt with so much credit around people will continue to refinance and increase their debts.
William: You haven’t created a post for EMRS’ statewide poll of Tasmanias federal voting intentions. Labor ahead 59-41
Ok Mr Glen, then the US should never have voted out the Democratic Congress in 1994, since the Republicans hadn’t controlled the House in some 40 odd years.
In those days the US was “a liberal democracy”…
Just re-reading Possum’s analysis of rate rises at
http://possumcomitatus.wordpress.com/2007/08/22/i-love-the-smell-of-interest-rates-in-the-morning/
Possum’s Newspoll analysis shows that much of the spike in Labor’s primary comes at the expense of the minor party vote, and that particular well may be dry at the moment. Or it could mean that those minor party voters who have drifted to the Coalition may drift back to Labor.
Morgan, on the other hand, shows the Labor vote increasing at the direct expense of the Coalition.
In both cases, there is a lag between a rate rise and an increase in Labors polled TPP. The analysis shows it takes 3 polls to show up – I guess that’s how long it takes for bank letters to hit the letterboxes.
So there may not be any impact on the polling before the election, which will no doubt prompt some headlines in the MSM over the next week. We should consider that the next set of polls won’t show any move to Labor (because of this).
On the other hand, we’ve never had an increase in an election campaign, so this may mean that we can’t rely on previous polling as a guide. Certainly, the heat of the campaign brings it to people’s attention more than usual: the ABC, WIN and 7 coverage didn’t look Government friendly, with battlers being interviewed on the impact.
Love the Government line, BTW: rates are going up, housing affordability is going down but we’ll fix it by keeping your pay packet low with Workchoices (sorry, “keep downward pressure on wages”).
Surrender core beliefs
WHO IS
MEDICARES BEST FRIEND
BABY BONUS
GST FREE FOOD
BIGGEST NON WHITE MUSLIM IMIGRANT NUMBERS IN OZ HISTORY
FAIRNESS TEST
CARBON TRADING
ETC ETC ????
For Howard there are core and non core beliefs
Rudd may be tacking right
But Howard re social contract is now HARD LEFT
WE ARE ALL CRYPTOSOCIALISTCAPTIALIST,s NOW.
Howard,
Go for Growth,
Well exactly right we have just had a growth in interest rates.
Caroline Overington reckons the interest rate is very good news for John Howard.
http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/coverington/index.php/theaustralian/comments/rates_rise_is_good_news_for_howard/
The woman is a moron. Does she live in the real world?
Margaret in Perth said “Caroline, you must be joking, it is just another pro Howard spin by the Australian newspaper – why is it the results of your online polls are so very different from your pro Howard headlines?? More people are hurting out there in voter land than are not! ”
Overington replied “No I don’t think so”.
Her articles are not worthy of the most grease laden chips!
On the 24th one Senator will be asked by Kerry to explain why his/her party lost. I suspect the answer will be “Well Kerry once the interest rates went up, we were stuffed”.
Howard,
Go for Growth,
Well that is right, their is a huge rise in Lberal Party LIES!
Forget the spin, when a rate rise goes up everyone on either side of politics looks for someone to blame – the drought, the sub-prime, the skills shortage etc etc.
But for the first time this rate rise allows the public to blame someone in 2 weeks. I’m betting they won’t blame Kevin Rudd.
Punters might have flocked to the Coalition, but this has got to be an extremely expensive attempt by the Lib campaign strategists to try and minimise any damage from today’s interest rate rise.
Caroline Overington’s blog in the GG has started a fire-storm in the comments section. When I first logged ion to it, it was on to the 3rd page of comments. I decided to have a read and by the time I got to the 3rd page of comments, it was already up to 17 pages.
The comments were running around 98% against her article and her responses were, to my mind, very defensive and juvenile. If this is what Howard can rely on to prop him up in the last 2 and a half weeks, he is in dire trouble indeed.
can someone tell me why labour doesn’t show graphs like this? surely howard can’t blame the labour party or non-conservative governments on these… has someone got a similar graphs with the aust figures?
http://www.dallasfed.org/research/eclett/2006/images/el0609c1.gif
“Ok Mr Glen, then the US should never have voted out the Democratic Congress in 1994, since the Republicans hadn’t controlled the House in some 40 odd years.
In those days the US was “a liberal democracy”…”
John what you fail to understand is you can gain experience not being in power, by having politicians who apply themselves in opposition and having minority leaders with experience. So by 1994 the Republicans had a talented bunch of fellows ready and experienced enough to control congress and not bugger things up like Newt!
Better luck next time. But at least you aren’t as abusive as the other lefties.
Mike at 185 said:
“….the Libs antidote to inflation is lower wages, our antidote is more valuable workers through education and training.”
Killer line
Whilst people complain about Howard and rightly so i believe both major parties are the blame for the mess we are in and will be in the future. Both major parties have shifted the way we live from a saving economy and one in which governments do things for you to one in which people are responsible for themselves fuelling a debt society. Massive household debts will eventually catch up with us and the economy will collapse causing a significant economic depression. Put simply both parties to me have no idea when it comes to running the economy.
Scorpio,
People are struggling with their mortgages. Many are stressed. Marriages and families are under enormous personal strain. Yet this bimbo, this stupid ignorant woman, reckons an interest rate rise is good for John Howard.
SHE IS A CERTIFIABLE DILL!!!!
My kids are really battling with their mortgages and they feel betrayed. They were promised low interest rates by Mr Howard and they feel betrayed. Right or wrong that is how they feel. They were promised low interest rates and they were lied to. Simple.
This, Ms Overington you intellectual genius, is not good news for John Howard.
Overington’s article has made me really angry and upset, more than any other article I’ve read. It was insensitive and calice. This woman is cocooned from the suffering that some families are experiencing.
She is devoid of credibility. She is ignorant!
Caroline Overington has finally posted a sensible comment. But only one mind you. Number 1. The rest is rubbish as normal.
{1. Matt is the most outstanding columnist in the nation. I have no business being in the same profession as Matt.
2. A rate rise can indeed be good news for a party widely regarded as economically responsible (or, if you prefer, more responsible than the other mob)
3. Most people vote the same way at every election. The undecided are still that.
4. No problem. }
http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/coverington/index.php/theaustralian/comments/rates_rise_is_good_news_for_howard/P400/
Sorry, Glen, did not mean for it to come across like that, but then again, hasn’t your mate howard done some amazingly un-Australian things?
Many have been pointed out to you on this blog over the past few days, but you just seem to be an apologist for the libs who are adept at passing the buck, and are the masters of the smear ,fear and lie campaigns, which are all un-Australian.
I am sure the libs would not know how to run a clean campaign in any circumstance.
Yes Howard is a pathetic liar but Gaynor other than having more security with employment. What policies will Labor bring that will make it easier please explain. Yep think short term but long term?
Listened to labors ABC addvert, much more impressive than last weeks effort. Rudd talked about education.
Will both parties are guilty of using fear and smear campaigns and lying too neither side is squeaky clean one must except this.
Has Rudd run a clean campaign, trashing Howard for his ads then Rudd brings out just as bad ads i mean cmon, Rudd is a hypocrite.
Will i have had my problems with the Libs and ive noted them before so i disagree with your view that i am a Liberal apologist.
Cannot agree more Scorpio. I have NEVER seen such a savaging as Caroline got on her blog. I could not believe what the moderator let through. And her responses were puerile. She got about 10x as many blogs as usual, all of them BAD.
Gerr @ 7.05pm. Albrechtensen said Gillard is second rate.
She is either very jealous or her make up has penetrated to her brain.
Glen:
One might accept your line that you are not a Liberal apologist, had you not already admitted you are a paid up Liberal member.
Further, one could accept some of your arguments if they were not based on complete falsehood and deception.
Even then, you may have had some credibility, but for your insistence on using the same lies that have previously been shown to you to have been debunked.
Your silence in the face of logical rebuttal, and rehashing of the same lies, shows you as the Liberal Hack that you are.
In the future I will not read one article written by that woman.
People suffer with their mortgages, a majority with young kids and financial commitments, and she prattles on about what good “managers” the government is. How this rate rise is very good news for the government.
Sorry………. but it really upset me!
Dont hold back now Gaynor!
How’s this for pork-barrelling and blatantly bribing the voters, with tailor-made policies?
From ABC: A Tasmanian Senate candidate for the Liberty and Democracy Party (LPD) is standing by his party’s policy to decriminalise victimless crimes such as [...] incest between adults.
(DISCLAIMER: My wife is from Tasmania. If she sees this, she’ll kill me.)
A country full of stupid people. Agree, thats why we get the crazy do nothing policies and politicians with good wages and beautiful superannuations and perks.
Marky Mark #251
How about some good old fashioned honesty. Nothing too extravagant.
That would be a good start!
Sean, you need to bear in mind that there are a number of ‘Glens’ who post here,. Some of them are rational, some of them are irrational, and some of them are idiots, not worth spending William’s bandwidth responding. You can tell fairly early on which ‘Glen’ is in play, and decide for yourself.
I love the fact also that the pro-incest party is swapping preferences with Family First. Still, I suppose that’s the very definition of incest…
Nobody will be taking Sportingbet for a ride! Read the fine print:
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I’m calling the negative equity seats of Fisher and Fairfax and Longman to the ALP.
Spackler @ 244. Write to Rudd and attach graphs.
Harry ‘Snapper’ Organs, why is it that you think im just some Liberal Party troll, why is it that anyone with any criticism of Rudd is denounced as a troll or a Liberal stooge???
I really think its sad that you say i am 5 or 10 different people, why you can’t except that there are tories out there like me is beyond me oh well.
Glen
Don’t worry mate – we won’t make you convert to Rugby League.
“Albrechtensen said Gillard is second rate”
I would imagine Albrechtesen would be insanely jealous of Gillard. Gillard is everything she is not; intelligent, experienced, tough, competent, a leader and, successful. Albsn. presents as a right-wing disciple of spite and malice, lacking in real ability, intelligence and competence. Most of what she writes I find trashy and so wound up in trying support one poltical point of that it is rendered useless – I don’t bother with her articles or for that matter the GG/VI until such time they aspire to balance and intelligent discussion.
No wonder she has to denigrate Gillard.
Anyone see the dill Jason Wood (Lib, La Trobe) on the 7.30 report where he mentioned the “Liberal Party”? This guy is so embarrassed of the “Liberal” branding that it doesn’t appear on ANY of his brochures, letter box cards or signage around the electorate. Check out his webpage, it’s like he is running for the local councilors job.
http://jasonwood.com.au/
yeah good answer linsday….
it just kills me that labour let this argument endure. even the media don’t seems to want to kill it off. every freakin election…interest rate fear- dumb dumb dumb.
Hey ruawake i don’t mind Rugby League at all. My great grandfather was an administrator for the Kangeroos and the Queensland Rugby League in the 1920s and 1930s. So i have an affinity with League.
“Glen Says:
November 7th, 2007 at 8:11 pm
Harry ‘Snapper’ Organs, why is it that you think im just some Liberal Party troll, why is it that anyone with any criticism of Rudd is denounced as a troll or a Liberal stooge???”
Actually I like “constructive” criticism of Rudd or for that matter anybody, it’s just that your post are so…well…err.. predictable and …. well… usually quite stupid.
But not to worry Glen, your basically an ass and being stupid often times coinsides with that…
it’s probably not your fault
Gaynor, I hope you don’t mind, but I cut your earlier comment and posted it in to Overington’s blog without using your name.
I told her that this is typical of comments through the blogisphere about her article.
Glen
I knew you had a heart
K @210, the path to a one party state is via lots of very small steps.
I wont go on in detail, but from the very beginning, Howard silenced anyone who criticized him, pulling funding from welfare organizations that dared make political statements, through to politicising the public service and attacking the independence of the ABC. His hatred for universities shows through. It isn’t just his hatred for ‘elites’, its the understanding that universities are always dangerous to an authoritarian government. No, he’s not in the class of Putin just yet, and while I hesitate to use the phrase ‘born to rule’, the fact is, that attitude does show, especially in the likes of Downer.
Cheers
I just sent this to Ms Overington,
“It is deeply sad when an increase in the cost of living is framed as good news for anyone.
Rather than get caught up in the frenzy of the election campaign and view everything through the prism of political points, I would urge you to reflect on your comments.
There are a great many people who are truly struggling, for whom even an extra ten dollars a week is a lot of money. Yet you can’t see it.
I feel sorry for you, but more sorry for the people who tonight will lose sleep over how to pay their bills.”
I’ve just had a look at Caroline Overington’s blog and cannot believe how easily some of you have been taken in (yes, I recognise a number of Bludgers lurking there amongst the enemy). She has 407 posts at this point, which is pretty good in comparison to most other blogs anywhere else – excepting this fine one, of course.
So basically, in all of your righteous indignation against what she has posted, the nett affect is to add to the Oz’s financial bottom line. Overington has posted a nice big spoon with which to raise debate, and the bait has been taken. Page impression after page impression has been tallied up – and considering how popular this post is, she’ll have a go again – and then the Oz can approach advertisers with a decent number to pitch for sponsorship.
A nice big cheque will shortly be winging its way to Rupert’s personal savings account. And the interest rate rise today has helped that too. Don’t you just love economically conservative capitalism?
Haven’t responded to anything at the GG for some time, but having a look at that airhead Overington’s rubbish, just had to give her a serve. Cathartic, it was.
Gaynor agree honesty is a good thing. But i would prefer a country which put in place policies that were for all people and not the wealthy. Unfortunatley that is what both parties now do. The rich continue to get wealthy no matter who is in power and our societal ills increase. Crime, homelessness, mental disease, poor health and nutrition, and people living without basic amenities and then debt.
Instead both governments are offering us no changes in regards to private health and education funding and slow changes on industrial relations.
On interest rates Gaynor whoever is in government next year they will increase. After complaining about such it will be good to see pinocchio Howard go.
But i will be voting Green as their policies are the only ones which make sense.
Actually Glen I like you posting here (not that you need anyone to stick up for you); at least you don’t write tabitha sh*t.
@224
The silent majority? What did you do swallow the Pauline Hanson playbook like the weazel?
So ruawake i support both Melbourne Storm and Brisbane Broncos, though i am an afl supporter at heart i follow those 2 league teams. League ain’t bad at all more exciting, i couldn’t support super 14s thats boring, though i do like the Wallabies.
Mate you have been so offensive to me that i will not respond to you anymore you have crossed the line too many times in your vicious personal attacks on me, ‘this will not stand, this aggression will not stand’.
Poll trends by Reuters are interesting but still it has got to boost the stocks of both sides, though id rather be in your shows ruawake than having to come from behind, though Efficient did that well on Tuesday so anything can happen.
marky @233, agreed.
You got it in one marktwain – I’m betting she was laughing all day – wonder if she gets a bonus per response.
And bloody hell, the market thinks there’s a 32% chance of rates going up to 7%
http://www.asx.com.au/sfe/targetratetracker.htm
Give us a break!!!!
Of course this rate rise is good news.
Today’s rise is only a 0.25% increase to a paltry 6.75%. Stack that up against the following:
1) We are currently going through one of the worst oil shocks since 1982.
2) Sub-prime mortgage issues are still reverberating around the world.
3) The drought is one of the worst on records
4) Unemployment is ultra low and our budget is in massive surplus
Basically we are doing phenonimally well, so if anyone wants to bleed all over the carpet in pain over a pathetic +0.25 in interest rates, then go-ahead.
Glen’s right, if the economy is front and centre for the people, its good news, even if you are mortgage stressed.
Caroline Overington’s and others desperately looking for ways to promote John Howard is sickening and, demonstrates just how degraded and useless our newspapers have become – they don’t even bother to pretend balance any longer.
Overtington’s piece is simply more fairytale stuff presented to improve the image of Howard and play down his monumental failures.
As has been reported elsewhere Australia’s interest rates relative to the OECD are no different than in Keating’s time – John Howard has not created and presided over wonderful interest rates, he has presided over the same relative interest rates.
John Howard’s failure has been to perpetuate the lie that he somehow is responsible for lower rates and, could provide record lows, when since making those promises everything he has done has had the effect of increasing interest rates.
John Howard grossly deceived the people to win an election – and thus should be held accountable for the lies.
Thank you Scorpio. I don’t mind in the least.
Marky Mark. You are partly correct about honesty in government but I think people are getting weary about Mr Howard’s looseness with the truth.
Core and non-core promises. Making statements with wiggle room for ambiguity. Making promises that are fundamental to re-election and then not delivering, causing suffering in the process.
Look, I’m not smart but I’ve live my life honestly and raised a family in the process. My children now have young children of their own. This man has lied to my children and he deserves to be ridiculed. I feel their pain.
I also know that PM Rudd would also probably lie to us as well. But I know one thing, he hasn’t lied to us yet. That is the difference.
John Howard is my idol,
Very honest,
A great prime minister indeed
I want to be just like him when I grow up
Vote 1 Liberal
You should all be greatfull u all have jobs thanks to the Liberal party
Thank your boss and thank John Howard
Stop moaning and complaining u all don’t know how good you have all got it!
Glen – please point to where this applies.
“Mate you have been so offensive to me that i will not respond to you anymore you have crossed the line too many times in your vicious personal attacks on me, ‘this will not stand, this aggression will not stand’.”
Just for the first time. “Sit on it and Rotate” Twit.
Glen @226, Howard has moved your party so far to the right that its only hope is to be rebuilt. You should use your vote to hasten that
I am new, too, in contributing to this site, but have been following it religiously for a long time. A few observations: being a long time Labor supporter, booth captain, scrutineer etc, I think sometimes there is a tendency to get ahead of ourselves in making outlandish predictions.
As to the interest rates, who knows what will happen in terms of the response of the electorate. The lying rodent and smirkface will attempt to paint it as proof of a strong, booming economy. One is tempted to ask the question then: oh I see, that means Labor’s 17% rates were proof of a booming economy. I’d be pretty shitty though if I had a mortgage at the moment or paying rent.
Keep up the good work everyone, but try and keep everything in perspective as long as possible. I know it’s hard, but take it from a election worrier from way back, it’s not a bad coping mechanism.
I live in Kevin’s electorate and working hard for him. It’s all systems go!!!!
Just watched the IR debate closing statements. Joe says he has a plan for “sustainable inflation”. Woohoo!
Kina, if you don’t like the Australian, don’t read it. Then you’d be in the company of approximately 20.9 million other people. You are just preaching to the converted here.
Overington has no real opinions, a month ago she was writing equally lampooning articles against the Weazel. As poster said above, the Australian knows what it’s doing….they just want to get a rise.
It works on me sometimes, just Airheadsen, I feel she actually believes what she writes, whereas Shamahan, Overandoutington, Milne, et al are just dramatizing for shits, giggles and profits like all good shameless gutless tabloiders do.
Glen, It is perfectly clear to anyone with enough neurones to form a synapse that either there are different people posting as ‘Glen’, or you are a deeply troubled individual who should seek professional help.
Taming the shrew
scaper…
Wed 07 Nov 07 (02:25pm)
Hi Caroline,
The twins are eight now?
Where are you taking them for Xmas?
I’m taking my girls to Kingfisher Bay on Fraser Island and it should be a great time.
Oh by the way, had a positive chat to the baldy one last night and there is more to him than people think.
Have a good day.
Cheers, scaper…
Caroline Overington
Wed 07 Nov 07 (02:28pm)
no, no, the twins are still seven. i will be up north after christmas, although not that far north. i stand by my assessment of mr garrett.
I’m betting the ALP will use the phrase “housing affordablilty” a few time between now and the 24th.
Actually I think it is time for Rudd to go policy crazy. Negative ads of course, but policy positive. Keep the govt banging on about interest rates and the economy, while the ALP forges ahead on education, health et al.
Rudd has done best this year when he has acted like he was already PM. He has lost that a bit of late – time now to get it back.
But bugger me those graphs used by Howard and Costello were pathetic. Though at least they didn’t try a power point display.
Previous threads ruawake and he knows what he’s said to me.
I can take abuse about policies and politics but not personal attacks on me, that won’t stand.
Who else thinks Howie or Rudd will bring out big policies maybe an environment proposal given the debate at the press club???
295 Scaper… Have you posted re your meeting with the the bald one?
Thank you Blackbird at 234, that poll had escaped me. Post now up. How far behind the eight-ball was I here? Was this published in Tasmanian papers this morning? I can’t see any sign of it.
@286. Out of touch.
Gaynor you should vote on policies and not exactly because they lie. I like politicians who go into politics not for themselves but for the people and basically their are few of these people around. That is why i liked Peter Andren. He wanted to do something about the outrageous perks these guys get and it is outrageous.
We get their rotten policies and they in return are paid by us for life and also get a heap of perks. A joke what world do our politicians live in. Remember this year they got a significant pay rise above inflation whilst many workers got very little.
ruawake, I took Glen’s post concerning “mate” to be referring to 273 mate. Though maybe you are Glen’s mate, and you two just love to hate!
Ummm? Seems to me to be a case of a certain pot calling a kettle black.
Forget about that bint Overington. She’s not worth a moment’s consideration.
Just think about this. If this interest rate rise is so good for Howard, why did he feel the need to apologise for it?
Howars is trying to do a Peter Beattie, who successfully turned negatives into positives by apolgising profusely. But Howard is not Beattie. He is a different person and everyone knows it. After 33 years in politics, the voters know who Howard is. He has never apologised for anything in the past. He has always insisted that he has always beeeb right. By apologising, he just comes off as insincere.
Howard is eating a shit sandwich over this, and he knows it.
294
Harry ‘Snapper’ Organs ill take your post as a joke, as if you are being serious you have smeared me beyond no ends to say i mental issues based on my posts to poll bludger.
As i should hope that remark was a joke i shall respond to it by saying ‘Serenity Now, Insanity Later’.
Marktwain @ 277
Can only agree.
Overington has managed a huge joke on the blogocracy, got everyone talking about her and significantly increased her profile, prestige and awareness value.
I expect she will now parlay all this nonsense into an extended media career for her “controversial” views.
Rattling cages is what shock jock journos do. Why is anyone surprised!
Hey Glen can you stick your head above the walls of your cubicle and ask the supervisor why Jason Wood in La Trobe doesn’t use any “Liberal” branding or mention of the party in any of his literature?
Possum, if you’re lurking, I understand from reading previous stuff (pardon the technological term) from you that you disapprove of comparing or conflating different poll results, for reasons to do with different sampling methodologies, weighting, and so forth, so what do you think of the Reuters?
Extraordinary isnt it. last time we had a ‘wages breakout’ was when Rodent was treasurer. And we havent had centralised wage fixing since PM Keating abolished it.
Come to think of it – has the coalition ever introduced any meaningful economic reform in the party’s entire history? Off the top of my head, it would just be the GST.
If I was a Lib, Id be concerned by the sheer number of *completely bullshit* statements the leadership was relying on to get re-elected. People arent that stupid.
What I’m finding incredible here is that Howard is now trying to link the threat of further rates rises under labor with labor’s IR policy.
In the fair dinkum department, if John Howard wants to try and save his government by convincing people in two weeks that they should keep workchoices (and what ever else they may have in store) when he hasn’t been able to sell them on it with 1 years’ and $100 million worth of advertising, he is delusional.
It won’t work if he links rates to IR. It can’t work. The coalition are miles behind on who has the better IR policy. To say to people that they need work choices to avoid interest rates rises is like asking them to bite on a cyanide tablet to treat a gangrenous leg.
The government may be able to somehow make the rise work to their advantage (I doubt it but you never know), but it can’t be done by linking it to workchoices. Linking it to work choices just links bad economic news to a policy which people perceive as ripping them off. A policy which is at worst despised and which at best the people are deeply suspicious of.
@311
You’d be suprised.
Kidding right? We are doing the same as we have always done – except in the last 10 years Howard has had the global boom surpluses to invest in Australia and to keep inflation under control – he failed badly – so we are where we have always been:
“If rates are outside the control of government – as the Treasurer himself told us at least twice yesterday – then the Government’s spin about the Labor Government is a lie. Indeed Alan Kohler on the ABC News last night [no online reference found] provided figures which show that irregardless of whether Labor or Coalition is in government, Australian interest rates are consistently around 1.2 percent above the OECD average for interest rates.
Lets take 1990 when official rates in Australia were 17 percent. International comparisons using OECD figures show that comparative rates were worse than January 1990 under the Howard Government for three consecutive years when official Australian interest rates are compared with the United States: in 2002, 2003 and 2004.
Indeed, if Howard and Costello want to keep going back to January 1990 [remembering that, according to Costello, government doesn’t have control over interest rates] let’s go back there. At the time Australia’s interest rates were 2.06 times that of the United States. In January 2004, under Howard and Costello the Australian rates [5.25] were more than 5 times the US rate [1.0%]. In January 2003, our rates were almost 4 times the US rate and in January 2002 they were nearly two and a half times [from OECD table, F13 Overseas Official Interest rates].
In September 2007, the ratio of Australian rates to US rates was the same as it was in January 2006 before the Coalition won office.
The Government’s mantra on interest rates and Labor is revealed for what it is: deceit and bluster.”
This woman must have some sort of mental condition. Check this out.
{m9
hobart
Wed 07 Nov 07 (07:05pm) I am amazed that anyone made any comment at all. I have a siamese cat that
shows more sense.
Caroline Overington
Wed 07 Nov 07 (08:34pm) a cat, you say? I do like the odd bit of cat. lightly seared, with fava beans.
lol
red wombat i don’t know i live in Melbourne Ports not La Trobe, perhaps if you write Jason Wood an email a staffer will tell you why, but i have no idea?
Thanks Glen, I made a bet with my freinds sitting here that you would pull me up about “bad spelling or grammar” ‘
but would ignore the point. You didn’t and I lost $5
The second bet was, “you watch now, no matter what you say he ALWAYS says something so stupid it’s just funny!)
I won $7
So I owe you 2 bucks
Thanks for being such a predictable fool ;_)
ANother parallel with 1996, there was a major ‘narrowing’ for Keating even though he started from behind. At one point very late in the campaign he was as close as 3-4 points.
Glen,
I think it is too late for either side to bring out big policies at this stage
Whenever I hear of $XXbn being spent on whatever, I put it aside until I have some peace and quiet to review the darn thing
It takes time to understand big policies and thier rollout will be a waste
from here on in, it needs to be about finding a cut-through way to attack, or sell the things already released.
For example, if the ALP have their referendum on the state’s heath system, won’t they need to amend the GST arrangment too?
By the way, I got the biggest lauvh of the campaing yet when I saw “go for growth” had been shelved. Sorry, do you mean growth in interest rates? Or just inflationary pressure?
Bahahah! Campaign Klutz strikes again.
Oh, Sino, wherefore art thou?
Melbourne ports???? There goes the neighborhood…
Trouble is Marky Marky I get overwhelmed with all these policies and all these billions of dollars they spend. Most of us do.
I want :
1. Water security
2. Fair and secure working conditions for my children
3. People to be able to afford their own home.
4. Efficient and well funded hospitals.
5. Honesty in government.
All the other stuff is fairy floss.
This site has improved my awareness about many other issues and improved my education. But most people think like I do and don’t absord all the other policies.
Who is goody and who is the bady. Simple really.
Lefty E while attacking Howard seems your specialty, what you have omitted is that in the early 1980s the Labor system was dominated by pattern bargaining.
Enough Said. No wonder they had problems back then.
I don’t read the Australian unless someone posts a link here to an interesting article. I used to blog sometime in the past under Mat Price’s blogs but gave it all away as pointless some time ago.
It’s been very interesting reading all this stuff on the site today, but I wish people would try to avoid the personal bile against other bloggers. So can I change the subject a bit and look forward?
It is an odd phenomenon of modern Australian Federal election campaigns that the campaign “launches” are held near the end, and the debate is held at the start, so leaders can debaate policies they haven’t yet announced.
Having said that, let me just say this (as a politican might say).
What will Howard promise in their campaign launches, given the backdrop of today’s interest rate rise?
My predictions are:
Howard – some housing affordability package, with something for both homebuyers and renters, with perhaps some welfare accommodation thrown in. So far, apart from the tax cut, Howard hasn’t addressed the cost of living issue, so he needs to. Something on petrol tax wouldn’t surprise either. And he’ll have something big on child care.
Rudd – I’m tipping a big package of bits and pieces, sold as a “plan”, for easing skills shortages and infrastructure bottlenecks. He said today that that was what was needed to ease inflation and put “downward pressure” on interest rates. But apart from his promises of a new tech block in every secondary school, and some me-too roads pork, he hasn’t delivered yet. I think there’ll be something significant for tertiary education (cuts in HECS?), and some big co-operative plan with the states for ports and apprenticeship training.
I think both sides will keep up the interest rate ads, and Labor will go in hard on WorkChoices in its advertising. I noted that, in today’s press conference, Rudd did his best to put WorkChoices and interest rates in the same sentence. And while I think Crikey has lot the plot a bit lately, I did like their line today about Howard’s pitch for preventing wage blowouts amid rising interest rates – “you’ll be better off being worse off”.
What do others think?
I started posting on the Oz Politics blog around Feb-Mar this year. I believe Glen started posting there around the same time as well. Me and Glen have sparred on many occasions. Our insults to each other were always made in jest and were never really intended to cause offence.
I do not dislike Glen. Glen is Glen. C’mon guys lighten up.
Looks like Garrett’s mate Steve Price is in a bit of strife as is the “golden tonsils”.
{Sydney radio hosts John Laws and Steve Price could suffer a “terrible injustice” if they cannot belatedly defend on-air comments which were found to vilify homosexuals, their lawyer says.}
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,22719145-1702,00.html
Nearly drove off the freeway into a barrier when I heard JWH use the :s: word today on the radio: sorry, not so hard to say if you mean, like pulling teeth out with a pair of plyers if your don’t. This man has been on that well worn road to Damascus, again donating to the Syrian Government’s public roads budget.
One day Costello throws his hands up and says ‘Dont look at me, I have no control over interest rates’: next day Howard says “sorry” about that folks. Why is he apologising for something Costello thinks is not the Government’s doing ? Like I said last night, 24 hours of confusing messages and both sides trying desperately to grab hold of the steering wheel-bloody funny to watch if it was not a serious matter.
I also love the surreal, trippy feel to the the Libs campaign on wages: workchoices means real wages are higher! AND workchoices is a wage restraint policy! Night is day!
What the hell is LIB HQ on at the moment? I wanna score some.
Greeenie Growl, I’d agree with you but Overington already has a decent profile considering she was the one who first broke the AWB story and wrote quite a good book about it. If you want to know the details of that scandal and the government’s complicity in it you have to read her book. My thinking is that if she hadn’t gone to work for Rupe she’d be a hero of the left.
She also wrote some fine stories when she was the US correspondent for Fairfax, including a ripper of a yarn on how the American military and the Pentagon refused to allow press photographers to take pics of the coffins of dead servicepeople coming back from Iraq.
But you are right – the aim of her post was to raise a stink, and she has done so. I just can’t believe everyone takes it so much to heart. I also can’t believe that I’m a Labor supporter and spend so much of my time on this blog defending the GG! I promise to stop.
I think that appalling journalism should be condemned. While the journo may get a short rise in readership, the loss of credibility is long-lasting. Overington will always be remembered for that crap now, and everyone will forget her awards for helping the rodents cover up for the AWB disgrace and just blame the AWB itself. She helped them bury more than 20 warnings that there were bribes.
glen
correct me if im wrong but didnt you last year on ozpolitics continually refer to kim beazley as ‘brainleak” and any supporter of the ALP as a “leftoid leftard”
you are just a sanctimonious oxygen thieving liberal party troll-deal with it
methinks the next poll can only be good for the ALP
Wasn’t Howard saying Price was a “respected journalist”?
Yes Lefty, I was glad to see every channel picked up the “subtle” shift of the “Go for growth” sign.
I would laugh, if I didn’t own a house. So instead I’ll bottle it in and laugh on the 24th.
266 Glen Says: November 7th, 2007 at 8:11 pm
Because you’re a member of the young liberals?
Antonio,
I thought Howard’s quoting the RBA statement release today was a very interesting moment in his press conference
I think only 7:30 report carried it, so it may have been missed, but essentially the RBA statement today said wage pressures had been contained, despite other inflationary pressures.
Basically, the RBA implied the current WOrkChoices/IR rules have helped keep a lid on inflation.
As I said, its probably been missed by most of the public, but alot of experts would have noted it
Funny, Graham Weazel felcher Young runs the GG online poll on interest rates then analyzes it according to his own spin…WHY BOTHER PRETENDING IT”S OBJECTIVE? Read Sid Marris in the Aus for the “TRUTH”.
He writes that it wont have any impact, but then writes 52% of respondents thought the PM had lied according to their own understanding of what he said. Naa No effect at all. Why bother pretending to be objective?
Just say Hi Im a liberal staffer and no matter what you say Im going to spin it the best way I can for the Libs, First question…
On the other hand there is Sid Marris
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22717519-5014047,00.html
# 323 Glen Says: November 7th, 2007 at 8:43 pm
The 1980’s LIBERAL system was dominated by pattern bargaining. It was the 1990’s LABOR government that removed it.
Funny you should forget that.
Perhaps you should do a little less time blogging, and a little bit more time studying those books that your supposed to be studying.
Centre you are right our best debates are when we refrained from personal insults and attacks it demeans us all when we do this on poll bludger, i support Antonio entirely he is right we should stick to politics. We don’t want to end up like some of the comments blogs on the Australian where personal attacks are the norm.
I don’t hate the left wingers on this blog both of my best mates are Labor voters, the best thing about that is having a good debate with them on the issues. The fact is we all want whats best for Australia we just have different ideas on how we can achieve this.
I agree, with Antonio, Howard has yet to bring out a child care policy or a housing policy. Either he’s left it too late and that was stupid or they are sitting on policies that could be ‘cannons’, regardless they’ve got to bring out something more than subtle IR changes Hockey announced today.
Rudd needs to bring out policy on his ‘education revolution’ i think it sounds good as a slogan but not many punters will know what it will actually do, some focused policy relating to that should help his cause. Maybe an environment announcement given the ‘Gaffe debate’ which is on tomorrow between Garrett and Turnbull.
Turnbull tomorrow.
Ahhhhhh, kyoto ahhhhhhhhh, emissions ahhhhhhhh, pulp mill ahhhhhh.
Garrett tomorrow.
“We wont change any of our policies if we get in”
@336 Sqiiggle
Is your nose that long for a reason?
Howard took that quote out of context. Howard argues that real wages have risen and yet also that there was wage restraint.
Howard makes no sense, that was the take away message from the 7.30 report. Why dont you write for the GG? Youd fit in well. You Sheep.
Just sunk the slipper into Caroline myself. Suggested that such asinine commentary was not the way to get that Walkley and that a good career move would be to stop listening to Dennis the Menace.
I guess we’ll see who’s right on the 24th won’t we?
And these guys get paid for this?
“Look Ma, no hands”………….Costello driving that “fine tuned racing car of an economy”
@342
No spine either…………
Mr Squiggle..#336 Yes I noted that too, and I’m sure it’s correct. My point was that it’s hard to sell a line that rising interest rates AND a policy that keeps wages down is good for you.
Personally, I don’t think wage rises help much. Half the rise gets taxed, and the rest gets spent, which adds to inflation. Rudd is on the right track about the need to lower living costs. However, he’s failed to convince me that he’s going to do it.
The other thought I’ve had, since posting my previous comment, is that Labor might increase the employer super contribution (as Keating had previously wanted to do). That would add to people’s savings, could be traded off against wage rises (even in AWAs!) and give people more security for the future. On the downside, it would add to employers’ costs, though the extra savings would probably help the stock market.
Antonio.
I’m quite interested in the launches as well – will they get live coverage on non-ABC stations?
They used to be such a starting point. Now they essentially start the end game.
Unfortunately I doubt either will inspire anything much from anyone. Sigh.
Scary interview with an economist on 730 report. Debt levels are severe in this country – pre-depression levels.
When Howard’s legacy is assessed, the irreponsible pump priming of the housing boom (ie producing massive levels of totally unproductive debt) with home buyers grants and CGT changes may go down as the worst economic blunder since 1929.
Garrett and Turnbull : THE GREAT GAFFERGATE.
That should sell at least 5 extra copies of the GG come Friday.
Being a business banker with one of the majors, I’ll give another insight into home loan rates vs RBA cash rate – in the early 90’s the Banks Home Loan rates (I’m making a direct comparison with the standard home loan product here for comparison purposes) were approx. 3.5% to 4.0% above the RBA cash rate (this was the bank’s profit) and this continued until the mid ’90s when this differential was gradually reduced to its current level of 1.75%. This has been mainly due to competition (which has been great for the borrower and explains why the banks charge more fees now) but what it hides is that if we used the same assessment as we did in the early 90’s todays home loan rates would be over 10.50%. Home loan rates are 2% lower today than those in the early 1990’s due solely to competition and has nothing to do with what the current government (other than the ALP government of the 1980’s as they were the ones to deregulate the banking market)
Glen on the debate tomorrow:
Turnbull:
“Hey anyone want to hear about the time I was on the Spycatcher case??”
Garrett:
“Hey anyone want her some stories about Bono?”
Abbott:
“Okay, look I’m sorry I’m late, but… hang on… those bastards! I KNEW they were lying when they told me I had another debate today”.
Sorry Ed
My take on Peter is that he still has the passion but he is a fish out of water but he comes across well.
I believe he has an ambition and it is a bit of ……bite your tongue?
The conversation was concerning the long term plan for the future of this nation.
I will say no more.
Lefty E,
The key driver of the housing boom has been the level of demand driven by population growth.
There has been very little pump priming via fiscal policy
If you were to say there has been an unneeded increase in net immigration which has put huge upward pressure on housing demand, I’d agree
Boy, the Labor ads are absolutely flooding out on Channel 10 during ‘House’. No Lib ads yet.
Gerr said: “Howard took that quote out of context. Howard argues that real wages have risen and yet also that there was wage restraint.”
Well I always feel a bit uncomfortable defending Howard, but the fact is that you CAN have a rise in real wages without a blowout. “Restraint” doesn’t mean wage CUTS.
Still, WorkChoices means he’s pushing shit uphill, because for a lot of unskilled, part-time or younger workers, they HAVEN’T had rises in real wages.
It appears that labor has something to say.
scaper, I don’t think the ALP has done itself any favours on climate change.
I think the ALP should have sold the “20% by 2020″ a lot better… actually I would have liked them to at least try to sell it.
I hope the next two weeks features the ALP doing a bit more proactive advertising that tries to create a whole new paradigm.
Either that, or just come up with a new shadow minister… call him something like Poochie.
What Howard means is people earning $100K+ can have all the extra money they want, people earning $10.50 an hour at Target can go get stuffed.
They’ve saved their money to spend it now, but i assume these ads were targeted with the rate rise in mind, the whinging Wendy one is a lame ‘me-too’ from Rudd in my opinion, copying a Keating ad lol but still she complains about Interest Rates so what about the alternative can they make it better that is the real question and she complains about housing when State governments haven’t released enough land.
The Liberals are yet to release any positive ads, i wonder when or if they’ll do it.
Mind you neither side is really doing positive ads at all.
I’ve been noting the media bias towards Howard the past couple of days
eg:
-2GB (Home of Alan”I have a urinary problem” Jones) at 7:00pm had the interest rate increase at story 5
- On Sky News I have seen better/more coverage to the Libs over Labor
I will list more
Am I right in saying the Libs used the ad about inflation figures under Whitlam, Hawke and Keating in 2004?
Nothing like new thinking.
Home loan rates are 2% lower today than those in the early 1990’s due solely to competition and has nothing to do with what the current government.
True : Howard’s made no ‘mistake’ back then, he got a strong message from Textor et al that people were very worried about their mortgages and economic security so he posted a message in the consciouss of the electorate that he could be trusted on these core issues to the hip pocket nerve, and won an election on the back of it.
The problem he has now is that he is being perceived as untrustworthy, rightly or wrongly, and some will vote against him because of the mortgage rate increase, regardless of whether they directly attribute the blame to him or not.
Most people have no idea how the economy works, about global markets, etc. Most just want to be able to reasonably expect to have a few dollars to throw around at Christmas time- some won’t have any more room on the credit card, and they will let JWH know all about that discontect 4 weeks away from Christmas.
Hi Gerr,
Howard was correct to quote Glen Stevens,
On a day when he is PM and he oversees the only rate rise in history to come out during an election campaign, he is completely justified in pointing to anything in the accompanying RBA statement.
It also makes sense to say real wages have risen while experiencing restraint. For example
“Real wages have risen but not as fast as inflation”
As to being a sheep, I assume you are something of a Merino Ram yourself, so why don’t you come over here and kiss my fluffy arse?
350 Scaper… You’ve said enough! Thanks
Yes Gary Bruce…as I type at my laptop, my daughter is watching House. She says it’s non-stop Labor ads, bagging the Libs on interest rates.
I did see a Liberal ad earlier tonight, though, which raised rate levels under Keating, Hawke and Whitlam (!), and labelled Gillard a “union lawyer” (I think), Swan a “learner” and Garrett an “environmental extremist”. It just had a question mark under the picture of Rudd, suggesting they didn’t want to put “Mandarin-speaking diplomat”.
The curious thing was that both ads were identical in style. Black and white pictures of the pllies they wanted to demonise, with bold red writing.
It’s obviously the advertising industry’s formula for scariness.
I suppose if you want to get to the target audience for housing affordability, you’d target a show called “House”. Perhaps Labor doesn’t realise it’s about a doctor.
Trevor @ 348, why doesn’t Labor highlight all that? Howard is just so sneaky, he kept saying interest rates are still 2% lower than when he took office yet I ‘ve read that rates are now on par when he took office. He cherrypicks figures and get away with it! Aaaaargh!!!
“Thommo” at #231 says we should all admire Howard for his determination. What nonsense. If determination on it’s own was such an admirable trait, that would mean we admire such horrendous people as Ivan Milat. Say what you like about him and his crimes, he showed determination.
The only problem with that, if Howard wants to run that line, is that most of the workforce is not on WorkChoices AWAs – so it must be collective agreements keeping a lid on wages growth.
They’ve got nothing positive to say. They spent today saying that inflation is good, that demonstrates how screwed they are.
Of course, because collective agreements tie wage increases to productivity increases. Whereas AWAs cut pay and conditions, thus making workers less motivated, and less efficient.
It is the I.R. pollicy you expect from economic rejects.
I wonder if we’ll get Swan or Tanner on Lateline since Alexander was on last night?
Tony Jones will love spoon feeding them tonight lol!
Squiggle, did Howard mention this by Glenn Stevens?
“The annual pace of CPI inflation was lower, but this reflected two very low quarterly results nearly a year ago, as well as recent changes to the treatment of child care costs. By the March quarter of next year, both headline and underlying measures of inflation are likely to be above 3 per cent.”
“During 2007, the pace of growth of demand and output has also increased.”
“There are few signs of that strength diminishing as yet, and reports of high capacity usage and shortages of suitable labour persist.”
“Growth in labour costs has been contained so far, and high levels of investment are adding to productive capacity in some sectors.”
“The rise in the exchange rate will help to contain pressure on prices.”
“But growth in aggregate demand will, nonetheless, need to moderate if inflation is to be kept to 2?3 per cent in the medium term.”
http://www.rba.gov.au/MediaReleases/2007/mr_07_20.html
Shaboh…to be fair to 2GB, you have to remember it’s a radio station. The interest rate rise is OLD news by for radio by 7pm, given that it was announced at 0930. Radio doesn’t save its stories up for 7pm (which is actually one of the LEAST listened-to bulletins, because most people are watching telly). I’m sure 2GB (and all other radio stations) led with the interest rate news for much of the day.
There is nothing the Liberal party and its leaders will not say. They are the experts at lying, deceit abusing justice, the military, the courts etc etc. They represent a new low point in Australian politics. It won’t belong before they try sacrificing their first born at midnight on marble slabs. AND some would if they thought it had a real chance of working. You cannot under estimate just how addicted to power Howard is.
It is amazing HOW quickly oz pol has become like US. Turnbull v Garrett Multi Millions v Multi Millions. Gillard at her age x partner Slater Gorden and of course Rudd 180 million dollar family man v poor Pete and Johnny.
USA election 04 Bush,son of a oil rich x pred v Billionarie couple heirs of the Hienz fortune. Next race will be wife of x president versus X 100000 dollar a night x new your major or x 200 million dollar morman scion.
Kina i know you don’t like the tories but there is a difference between disagreeing with their policies or their failures and saying they ‘eat babies or would sacrifice their first born’ come on mate you are much better than this, lift your game.
Meantime, BLUEBOTTLE investigates the Dons Party Scenario out of boredom.
DONS PARTY ?
Frustrated somewhat with constant reminders about how and why Labor could lose this Federal election, I decided to play ‘devils advocate’ and try to objectively figure out how Labor could lose it from here. So here it is !
Most would think Parramatta (1.1), Lindsay (2.9), Eden-Monaro (3.3), Dobell (4.8), Corangamite (5.3), Latrobe (5.8), Bonner (0.6), Moreton (2.8), Blair (5.7), Hasluck (1.8), Kingston (0.1), Makin (0.9), Wakefeild (0.7), Braddon (1.1), Bass (2.6) and Solomon (2.8) will offer Labor most of the 16 seats required to govern independently after this election.
Pessimists might argue that Labor may not gain Hasluck and Solomon and may actually lose seats in WA (Cowan and Swan). Labor apologists would counter with the argument that the polls indicate these losses or non-gains will be covered by further seat gains in SA and QLD, and to a lesser degree, NSW.
In SA most will be watching 2 seats with interest: Boothby (5.4) and Sturt (6.8).
In QLD I will watching 10 seats: Bowman (8.9), Leichardt (10.3), Petrie (7.9), Herbert (6.1), Ryan (10.4), Longman (6.6), Hinkler (8.8), Dickson (9.1), Dawson (10.2) and Flynn (7.9).
In NSW most will be watching 5 seats: Page (5.5), Paterson (6.8), Robertson (6.9), Bennelong (4.0) and Wentworth (2.6),
In Victoria I will be watching 3 seats: McMillan (5.0), McEwen (6.4) and Deakin (5.0).
Given the low 2PP margin, Stirling (2.0) in WA will be worth keeping an eye on as well.
WORST CASE SCENARIO for LABOR
I have nominated 16 seats (above) which Labor is expecting to win at this election. If Labor only wins 14 of those 16 seats and loses seats (Swan/Cowan), that will mean Labor has to that point come out with a net gain of 12 seats, needing a further 4 gains to govern.
If you take out Hasluck, Solomon and the 2 Victorian seats (Corangamite and Latrobe), Labor will have to gain 6 seats to govern and they will have to come from NSW, SA and QLD given current State poll results. In this ‘worst case scenario’, I have written off any Labor gains in Victoria and the NT, and conceded a net loss of 2 seats in WA (Swan/Cowan).That means 6 of the 16 seats I have nominated to ‘watch’ in SA, QLD and NSW would have to cross to Labor to ensure a victory before the WA results come through.
This brings me to this question: Which of these 16 seats is more likely to contribute to the 6 seats required in this ‘worst case scenario ?
The obvious one would have to be Boothby in SA given the swing apparent in that State. That makes 1 in SA, if you concede Sturt is not in the up-for-grabs category.
In NSW, until the GG published a close primary vote margin in NSW marginal seats on Saturday Nov 3rd, Page, Robertson and Patterson were popular picks, with some even developing increasing confidence in Labor gaining Bennelong and/or Wentworth. Here I will nominate Patterson, Robertson and Wentworth and 2 of these 3 going to Labor.
That makes 3 of the 6 ‘worst case scenario’ gains Labor would need, one in SA and 2 in NSW. Three to go. In QLD, I have already claimed Moreton, Bonner and Blair for Labor, so which 3 of the 10 seats I have nominated to ‘watch’ would get Labor over the line in my ‘worst case scenario? I will nominate Herbert, Petrie, Longman, Ryan and Bowman as the more likely of the 10 and given current poll indications, 3 of these 5 are very likely to go to Labor.
It follows that if you write off Labor gains in Victoria and the NT and Labor losing seats (2) in WA with no gains, there appears to be enough reasonable expectation in NSW, SA and QLD to cover the worst case scenario I am speculating here.
Of course, this is not the worst-case scenario skeptics can imagine- it assumes the ‘tight’ NSW primary vote polls in marginal Coalition seats published in the GG on Nov 3rd hold to the election, both Bass and Braddon will switch back to Labor and no non WA Labor seats are lost.
If Labor fails to pick up Bass and/or Braddon or loses seats outside of WA, on top of my ‘worst case scenario’, Labor will have to count the votes coming across the rabbit fence and wonder if Beasley is watching ‘Dons Party’, again.
To be thinking of a Dons Party outcome, Labor would have to fail to win seats in Tasmania, Victoria and the NT and would also have to be looking to the WA results with only 16 seats picked up in NSW (6), SA (4) and QLD (6), hoping they don’t lose any seats there.
I conclude that too many things would have to go pear shaped for Labor to lose this election and there is no reason to assume any of them will happen. Worst ase scenario: Labor wins by 16 seats and need another election to finish off the surviving Coalition heavyweights operating in the shadows\
Next week the Newspoll should drift back to 55/45 and put an end to Dons Party speculations.
Mr Twain at 278 – you’ve nailed it.
She pulled this village idiot routine to bait the commentators the other day as well, although it didnt work quite as successfully.
Ka-ching.. as she might say.
Antonio, re # 363
I think that House might rate highly in the demographic which Labor is targeting the ad towards – twenty somethings and thirty somethings with large mortgages buying their homes. More bang for your advertising buck.
Kina,
My guess is that it doesn’t need to be everyone (or even a majority) to be on AWA’s, it only needs the marginals on AWA’s to help limit wages growth. ( ie spotty teenagers, defenseless single mums, helpless criples etc)
Of course collective bargaining helps, but during peak periods in demand like now, its the management of the ‘overflow’ and stressed margins that keeps the lid on things
So says the Nose that Knows
Snapper at 310,
Not only do I think comparing polls from different companies is an exercise in chewing off ones own leg off, but the Rueters poll as a measure of polling reality is a bit short changed as well.
When you start running long *moving* averages on a series, let alone a collective average of a number of series, you lose information. Often what is important in the different polls is their volatility, but a henderson moving average, which is what reuters uses, destroys that volatility.
It’s fine for everyday conversation, but its completely useless for statistical purposes.
Well done Grog, that’s the way to comment, well blogged!!
I think I’ll go have a single malt now
376 The Piping Shrike however highlights the problem for Labor’s IR message.
“To those voters that care about it, the argument that the rate rise will be more helpful for the coalition than Labor is credible”.
http://thepipingshrike.blogspot.com/
Two areas are developing as a negative for Labor in the final rundown, IR and Climate Change. They are yet to nail their messages convincingly.
Mike at 185 said:
“….the Libs antidote to inflation is lower wages, our antidote is more valuable workers through education and training.”
Any criticism of the time lag in Rudds education remedy is offset by the fact that the Howard training colleges havent even been built yet.This is a winner for kev as everyone knows someone who has had a good Tafe experience.
The implicit connection of interest rate rises to workchoices by Swanny suggesting that there have been so many rate rises “since the introduction of workchoices” makes me lol.
The karma truck is backing up the driveway.
How many rate rises does it take before this ‘its good for Howard’ theory is exposed for the shi*e it is? We are almost back to where rates were in ‘96. Is this all Rattus Rattus has got show for his 11 years? Its hard to believe that anyone with half brain could swallow this nonsense. Lots of people went out and put themselves into substantial debt cos they trusted that little monkey that rates would stay at record lows.
Now we the Govt and some economically illiterate knuckleheads masquerading as journalists spinning the rate rise as a boost for the Tories. Do they really have that low an opinion of the electorate? Do they really think families are at home tonight saying ‘gee this rate rise will help put a break on our booming economy and start squeezing inflation out of the system’?
I think not.
More likely they will be talking about getting rid of Foxtel, taking pt to work instead of the car and various other adjustments
And Latham was right about Albrechtsen too.
For anyone interested, Crosby Textor are polling tonight in QLD (maybe elsewhere) using Millward Brown as the polling company. Their fishing for interest rate reactions among the usual things. It also sounds like they are measuring up whether to remove the Liberal Party brand from advertising by the sound of some of the questions asked, at least in Ryan.
If anyone is watching channel 9, how many Lib ads are on and how often?
Possum 376 – yes, I picked her as doing a bit of stirring the pot to get reactions. Her replies to posters were mostly smart arse stuff. I posted a tongue in cheek comment and accused her of being an ‘agent provocateur’. It was moderated out.
heres Laurie Oakes’s take on the rate rise.
http://news.ninemsn.com.au/minisite/election_article.aspx?id=318542§ionid=6046§ionname=minisiteelection
A public apology to Glen.
Sir, I don’t address you formally as I blog but as you gather I am one who cares not for your POV. How ever late last night I made a statement to Georges thread stating to him what I thought of you & added a choice insult that I wont mention again that is particular to the ‘Greek-Cypriot’ dialect & is very unkind as I don’t know if your married or not.
After it was posted you replied back stating to effect we should all be respective of each other view despite of our personal politics. No need for insults ect,ect.
When I read this I knew you where right & I felt something ’small’ for being so rude.
So here is my apology & I mean it.
PS – We are not friends now, just no insults OK
Mark Twain, surely the point about Caroline Overington is that since she has become more an apparatchik of the GG, the more she has written the sort of rubbish which attracted the response it did?
Galaxy polled that only 12% think a politician (Howard) is directly responsible for rate rises. On the back of that I don’t think it will have much effect one way or the other. Having said that I think Labor’s campoiagn is getting sloppy and certainly much less effective than the way Rudd was campaigning before the campaign proper began. Making Howard (or Costello!) into IR demons just gives Howard the conviction issue he has been desparately looking for and now he can link that conviction to interest rate fears.
The coalition’s campaign is a fragmented mess but Labor can’t seem to take advantage of it as it much as it could.
Possum here in QLD Labor is going roughly 2-1 v Coalition MORTGAGE rate ads: about 2 out 3 ad breaks at the moment during peak Wed. night veiwing time. The drenching hasn’t begun yet: probably a burst of catch the moment stuff on both sides that will fade by the weekend.
Of course one way to control inflation is to limit price increases, which after all is what inflation is about, increasing prices.
But in an time of record company profits, a joke of a ACCC and retail and petrol dominated by the big two crushing the smaller businesses the libs approach is to cut wages.
Richard Pratt, multiple donor of millions to the lib party was done for price fixing. He was only done because Amcor handed over taped conversations to the ACCC, not because of any investigative work tha they did.
Pratt’s company is being sued in a class action for $700 million by customers over the price fixing, this $700 million would have added to infaltionary pressures, yet all Howard can say is he is a good bloke.
An effective competion body that took an active role on competion policy and pricing would be a good move, but the Howard mantra is that he does not want to regualte business.
Howard favours the free market where big businesses charge the prices they want, small businesses get driven to the wall and workers see their wages slashed.
Aussieguru01 i realise that some of my posts go totally against the beliefs of others, and i respect their views while in disagreement. Don’t worry i searched what that meant and my greek friend it was something to do with cheating on your wive or someone elses wife but meh in the heat of the moment people pop, ive done it and im not happy about it either, especially my tirade against CL_de Footscray though admittedly i believe i was provoked but that does not excuse my actions.
No insults suits me fine guru.
If Howard did pull a win after being behind for a year and suffering a rate rise in the middle of the campaign surely his name will be revered as much as Menzies by the tories at least. It is more probable that Rudd will win but Howard can pull it off.
Antonio #363, Its Time #377
By running the interest rates ad on the House program, irrespective of the program’s subject, the ad not only aims at a particular demographic but the title itself reinforces (if it was needed) the link between the interest rate rise and the demographic’s mortgages.
Thanks Bluey,
I was wondering about Channel 9 as it has quite a favourable Coalition demographic. If the Libs are pounding that channel deliberately more than others, it would be another sign the firewall is up.
@361
“Mr” Squiggle
I would but cant tell which ends which.
Excuse me, but what kind of a back hander is that… with that last paragraph? NOW you write me an apology!
Possum #376.
It’s not exactly brain surgery, is it, this media gig.
And that would be Ms Twain to the likes of you, oh venerable Trichosurus vulpecula.
What did Latham say about Airheadsen?
If i insulted you personally then i am sorry, for saying such things, i can’t remember anything specific but i may well have and for that i apologise to you. I felt my last paragraph was even handed but it was not intended as a back hander to you guru by no means.
Who’s on Lateline?
I am listening to Channel Eddy (9) Poss, the Mrs is watching it…Yawn.
389
Harry ‘Snapper’ Organs
That’s a bloody brilliant name, by the way.
Caroline, like the rest of us, has to pay for her groceries, child care and mortgage (well, I don’t on the latter but that’s completely beside the point). Anyway, her mortgage has gone up 0.25% just like the rest of us (you).
Mr Squiggle at 351 – this line “Real wages have risen but not as fast as inflation” is actually pretty funny.
For the non-economist type folks around, Real Wages= the actual wage rises you get minus the inflation rate.
So if real wages are rising but not as fast as inflation, it actually means that wage growth, or how better off in the real world you are with your wage growth is slowing down
John Howard – boasting of his ability to slow down the growth in your standards of living.
The mind boggles.
399- I might get into trouble repeating here?
390 Mr Shrike I don’t think it matters only 12% directly blame Howard for interest rate rises. The ALP attack is aimed at the PROMISE he made in ‘04, and feeds in to the main narrative of Howard being, frankly, a lying old goat you can’t trust any more. Which then softens everyone up for the IR attack, the theme of which is ‘what are John and Peter planning next?’ I know you don’t agree WorkChoices is the poison everyone else in the known universe believes it to be, but arguing that some subtle linkage of IR policy driven wage demand suppression to interest rate pressures is going to cut through the simple ‘WorkChoices will rip off your children’ narrative is taking things too far. Except for the Lib’s core supporters, who are listening eagerly. They aren’t the ones John needs.
IMHO.
Glen,
Howard’s name will never be revered as is Menzies, never. Regardless of political leanings Menzies still commands respect as a statesman, Howard has never been anything other than a cheap politician.
Regardless of what you think of him Howard will always be known for the petty, deceitful, mean spirited, divisive, tricky and self serving cheap weasel politician he is. The man has no principle that he won’t abandon in order to stay in power.
Good Lord-the Rat is really trying to polish a turd if he istrying to convince people that falling wages improves their standard of living.
Ms Twain (mea culpa – and here I was thinking you were just being effeminate
), the media gig certainly aint brain surgery…. which is probably lucky or there’d be an awful lot of half-baked lobotomies filling up the place.
Why persist with lies Tory Crimes, Howard has said that his IR reforms have maintained increased real wages but being linked to productivity they have been sustainable?
It was Keating who lauded the fact that wages fell by 1.1% under Labor’s 13 years in power.
Let It End i fear you are just angry that Keating has a worse reputation than Howard and that Howard is more liked than Keating ever was or ever will be.
While the ABC has generally been nobbled by Madame Lash etc on their board this election, the Chaser certainly hasn’t. They set up a Liberal Party road block outside Glen Steven’s house stop him going to work the day he went to raise interst rates. And the Rodent’s twitching fits are getting more prolonged as the campaign progresses. He’s going to be in status epilepticus on election night and unable to deliver his concession speech.
There is a firewall up here in QLD Possum, they are running scared in a number of seats and struggling for on-the-ground support in most of them: tis a beautiful thing watching them thinking ‘How many can we save’.
Anyway, its about time QLD caught up with the rest of the island and brought a more balanced [ 6 ALP seats up here ] blue-red representation up here…the demographics of migrants to QLD is slowly shifting.
Last week DEWR released figures that show the Gosford/Wyong region of NSW has unemployment figures twice the national average. It is a good bet that the figure is higher in the northern part of the Central Coast which is in the seat of Dobell. With unemployment sitting around 8% and youth unemployment somewhere in the low 20% region, you don’t have to look far to see the effects of workchoices. These areas are already feeling the full brunt of the government IR laws with workers losing penalty rates, overtime and redundancy.
With higher mortgage payments, higher prices for petrol and groceries and increased job security Howards battlers have been totally screwed by this government. It is young people and women who have been hardest hit.In some of areas of the Central Coast you cannot get broadband and where you can it is far slower than Sydney which is only 120km away.
People imagine the Central Coast to be full of retirees but there are as many under 35’s as there are over 60’s and the former group are really feeling the effect of neglect from both state and federal governments.
205 Thommo. So tell me Thommo where exactly in the top 10 issues does the ear wax thing rate in importance? Is it ahead or behind nuclear power plants. Is it ahead or behind IR? Is it ahead or behind Global Warming. No wonder the Liberals are doing so poorly in the polls. Campaigning on the wrong issues. Doh!
Why has productivity gone backwards under workchoices, Mssers Baaaaaa?
Glen, I’m sure I’ve insulted you some time in the last eight months. I’ve certainly insulted your punctuation. I’m happy to get in the queue and apologise as well, just in case. I think it’s a much happier blog without the abuse, however idiotic the comments coming from either side of the Divide.
Very dry put-downs are still encouraged however.
Thanks, Poss re: the Reuters. What I thought, which is comforting. Have found your translation of the more arcane statistical analyses actually comprehensible, which probably means I have to take long service leave!
Possum,
Watching channel ten in Sydney and the Labor interest rate came on. That is one every third add break.
Next add break the coalition add came on – interests rates were higher under Labor (oops, forgot whe Honest John was treasurer). It boils down to: if you think we’re stupid, what if the other side are dumber? Better the liars you know..
Another line of attack for Labor: if Howard is a great economic manager but isn’t responsible for interest rates what is he responsible for? The foreign debt? (oops its $500 billion) How can you be both competent and ineffectual?
Why has productivity gone backwards under workchoices, Mssers Baaaaaa?
Its a stone cold fact. Wages have fallen, productivity has collapsed under work choices, its a fact. Look it for yourself. WHY? Dear Alpacas?
Howard’s only ace at election times is the economic management one. Rudd has so far effectively muddied that water. Now, in the middle of an election campaign he has the opportunity to further weaken the effectiveness of any Howard economic campaigning.
There is a shadow over Howard’s economic management credentials [despite the spurious poll]. Rudd only needs to keep that thought in people’s minds for the remaining part of the campaign.
He can then ramp up the simple story of WorkChoices taking money away from you and your kids – and what will they do in the future. AND the simple data is there to support them.
If Labor’s primary is really so impregnable then this remaing two weeks is a fight for the swinging voters in the minors and the Liberal party.
Let it End – I empathise, but Menzies was the same I suspect.
Time cures all…
So when you say wages have been tied to productivity you are right. As both have fallen dear sheep.
Sad init.
Bluey, I know – I’m a Qlder myself. Lilley resident.
The panic that was going in up here about 3 months ago in the Libs seems to have now turned into a depressive acceptance of reality. Especially since it only really came out in their polling relatively recently – Qlders being hard to poll strikes again!
Glen, stop talking rubbish. I never voted for Keating, I was a member of the liberal party then you shmuck. Do you have any idea at all why Libs are behind in the polls and why so many have deserted the party over the last 5 years?
Tory Crimes @ 407 -
Not just polishing a turd , more like ‘Mr Sheening an entire swimming pool of excrement’. (And here I have to give credit to this comment I read in the Guardian, where it was used in a music review).
Socrates – it looks like the ALP is really trying to hammer the interest rate rise home to the 29-45 demographic by their advertising spread (doh! whooda thunk it!)
Yet the Libs are shooting randomly to the same demographic but shoring up the oldies.
Smells like another brick in the firewall.
Possum, I take pride in my lobotomy – best thing I ever did, second only to the sex change I had after I died. That and growing up in Queensland.
Listening to ABC radio on my way home from work in Adelaide, it was interesting to hear the interviews of a number of people who voted Liberal at the last election.
When asked whether the interest rates issue would decide their vote, they said its a factor, but the overwhelming issue seemed to be that Howard has had his time & its time to give Rudd a go.
Its hard to know how representative that sample of people was, but from that, it appears that people have pretty much decided, & this may just serve as a final nail in Howard’s coffin, rather than being the deciding issue in itself.
Yes Glen, the Accord did keep real wages down but there was something else called ‘the social wage’ at the time that compensated for that and something else called uummm, rrrrrr, got it-superannuation. PJK packed so much nation building into those years no wonder he was biiter after ‘96. Ungrateful lot some of us. Something else that has amused me is that Howard said in his ‘96 victory speech that he was being handed over an economy ‘in better than good shape’. The ALP have never run hard enough on the heavy lifting it did for the Oz economy.
Last night I had a bad dream, Labor had failed to put WORKCHOICES-WORKCHOICES-WORCHOICES in the sub consciouss of the electorate in the last 2 weeks and JWH was sitting at a bar drinking a CSC [dont ask if you were never a barman or barmaid] and laughing at Costello trying to hump Dolly’s stocking leg; eww.
Footnote to self: Drop in at Swan’s office tomorrow and yell out ‘WORK BLOODY CHOICES STUPID’ a few times: they are used to my occasional rants: ALP, the tolerant party.
Silence. Not one baaaaa. They’re looking up the Liberal Home page which has recently removed even Howard’s picture. It just has the Tampa on the header, and the title ‘ The good old days’.
Dear Sheeeple? wages down, prodcutivity DOWN. Yet Trev Hendy, the human answer to warts and card carrying member of the HR Nichols says Aus businiess needs it, it does. The only thing that work choices has accomplished is increasing profits while productivity goes backwards, its a fact.
Mark Twain @ 426 – and here was I thinking that rumours of your death had been greatly exaggerated.
Why didn’t you change your name to Shania, btw?
Gender confuses me. For months I was sure Kina was a very feisty Chinese born woman. But no… that’s not right is it?
Don’t knock the lobotomy. Moniz won a Nobel Prize in Medicine for it!! In fact, about 20% of all Nobel Prizes are awarded for research that is subsequently demonstrated to be false. Just like Overington’s Walkley. Sorry I’ll shut up about that now.
SBS showed a Liberal Party attack ad on interest rates about 5 mins ago looks like it is on for young and old from now.
Swanny on lateline…
426
Marktwain Says:
November 7th, 2007 at 10:27 pm
Possum, I take pride in my lobotomy – best thing I ever did, second only to the sex change I had after I died.
Laugh of the day Ms Twain. Thank you.
That would be my wife – a feisty mandarin cantonese Hong Kong woman who sometimes gets me to type her messages here as well. They have a passion for democracy since they are not getting it in HK and are familiar with dictatorial governments – hence hatred of Howard.
Possum
I agree; it has really become a very defensive campaign. The advertising to their old faithful is like the oldies vote-buy – if you are going to lose, at least make sure you keep most of the die-hard liberal voters and hang onto the safe seats. That way there are still some staffer jobs left for somebody.
Glen- theres a spectre haunting the Liberals-the spectre of WORKCHOICES.
Goodnight I’m off to watch Liverpoll win 8-0
430 Gerr”The only thing that work choices has accomplished is increasing profits while productivity goes backwards, its a fact.”
But we’ll never know for sure until we can prise the real statistics from Joe Hockey’s cold dead fingers.
Bluebottle #436
I’d rather have a free bottle in front of me, than a pre-frontal lobotomy.
Yes, I tend to think the interest rate rise is only worth a couple of days ads for the ALP. Get back to a positive vision for the future: Education, Environment, IR.
Howard’s real weakness is that people are just sick and tired of looking at the mendacious bastard. He hasnt helped himself there by deciding people would just LOVE to heard his friggin irrelevant views on all manner of state and local government issues.
Kina – uhuh. I suspect Ms Kina sneaks in here and blogs with your log-in when you’re asleep. Assuming you do sleep. Another thing I’m unsure of.
Had another conversion today. Another long term Liberal supporter, retired exec now back on contract.
He was worried about Labor having too big a win but now will vote for them as it seems things are evening out. Reassured him that there was still a hostile Senate to keep government under control. His reason for not voting Howard is years of wasteful spending – eg Super Hornets.
Ms Twain, I know a person that writes for a certain spread of ’social pages’, and they say the same thing about their lobotomy – although in such cases it’s probably an occupational necessity.
So tell me, do you think there’ll be a subtle cleaning out of journos from the Murdoch stable that are no longer compatible with the New Order if Rudd wins?
I think people here are underestimating the stupidity of the average Australian voter.
VoterBoy #431. I don’t like Canadians. Something weird about that lot.
Spaeking of the Murdoch stable, when is the mighty one making his pre-poll appearance in Oz? It must be coming up soon? Does anyone think there will be a laying-on of hands for Kevin? And will the GG rapidly change tune as it sniffs the breeze?
Don’t get my wife started on Howard – she gets so wound up she can hardly get the words out. It is cute to see a 5′ 1″ Chinese woman get cranky over politics. more power to her.
Mark Twain @ 447. You are Janet Albrechtsen, and I claim my five pounds.
Sportsbet has labor drifting uncontrollably to $1.32…..
or Ann Coulter…
Ross Gittens, always tells it the way it is.
http://www.smh.com.au/news/opinion/the-treasurer-is-mainly-pretence/2007/11/06/1194329223119.html?page=fullpage#contentSwap1
Costello is a fraud!
OMG look at the time. Deadline tomorrow. I’m unplugging my modem now and getting Mrs Crispy to hide it somewhere clever until the morning. G’night all.
LaborVoter, I agree.I have seen other elections where people voted the idiots in, you just don’t know how the average joe thinks
http://pulse.ninemsn.com.au/forecast/
The Pulse survey is now showing Labor winning 19 seats, but two of those are Wentworth and Bennelong.
There are 12 seats listed as “Too Close to Call”. So this is another poll that suggests the result will either be a close Labor win, or a Labor landslide.
Samples are now up to 900+ for most seats, i.e. margins of error of 3.5% or less.
But it all depends on how good their weighting scheme is.
Labor are wasting some huge swings in seats they already hold, especially in Victoria.
Lordy me, the LNP are absolutely gorn, mate, gorn. Have never seen such a total meltdown of a political party in my entire life, and I’m an old bastard. It couldn’t happen to a more deserving group of self serving, narcisstic, incompetent bastards ever in Australian political history.
I don’t suppose there is any value in Labor doing a day or two on COSTELLO as your next [unelected] PM if you want him on your TV for the next 3 years ? Na, better to focus on WORSTCHOICES (IR) and toss some more money/messages at the mothers looking for childcare and education stuff now, oh and something substantial for the grey voters apparently yet to be detached from JWH in Victoria and WA.
What’s “The Monthly”? Some new magazine? Just saw an ad on SBS for it. Cover story was Costello – The great pretender.
Wayne Swan on LL, .the libs chickened out!
Mr Squiggle,
“I think only 7:30 report carried it, so it may have been missed, but essentially the RBA statement today said wage pressures had been contained, despite other inflationary pressures.
”
That’s the whole point. Costs are going up, people are working longer and more unsociable hours and wages don’t go up? The great unwashed feel they are carrying the can for the wealthy. And they’d be right!
Is there an ACN out tomorrow?
Oh and Swan on LL now.
Re interest rates it seems the great “wedger” has wedged himself.
To say that the interest rate rise is evidence of a good economy is plausible if not for the commitment to keep rates at record lows. There’s a major contradiction there.
The Libs are all over the place on this.
If you want to claim responsibility for the good news you can’t avoid the bad.
Hey Harry”Snapper”Organs, how old are you? I thought I was old at 60!
SportingBet
Tuesday, 06 November
Labor has won both weeks two and three of the election campaign convincingly. That is the verdict from punters betting with Australia’s biggest bookmaker, Sportingbet Australia.
Sportingbet Australia CEO, Michael Sullivan today revealed that all the money had been for Labor since the end of the first week of the campaign.
“The Coalition got an ‘election bounce’ after it called the election with 70% of bets in the first week going to the Coalition,” he said
“But it was short lived and betting has been all Labor since then, with 61% of bets going to Labor in week two and 64% in week three.
“Labor goes into week four of the campaign with a wind in their sail and well ahead in the betting markets, the polls and every other indicator going around.
“And I’ve been running betting markets on elections for twenty years now and I’ve never seen either Party come from this far behind in the odds to win,” said Sportingbet CEO Michael Sullivan.
Week 1 (bets) Week 2 (bets) Week 3 (bets)
Labor 30% 61% 64%
Coalition 70% 39% 36%
There were two 15-second Labor interest rates ads during the first ad break on the Channel Nine News in Perth, and one 30-second Coalition interest rates ad during the second. On Channel Ten, the 15-second Labor ad ran in the second break and the 30-second Coalition ad ran in the third. You might be surprised to learn that the Channel Nine news ordered its stories as follows:
0.33 Dante Arthur sentencing
5.50 Prison escape
7.33 Maori-Aborigines street brawl
9.30 Ben Cousins back from US
10.53 Interest rates
14.44 Outro to ad break
Swan on lateline zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz!
Worse than Andrew Robb.
Will Downer was on last night that is why Swan is on tonight the Libs didnt chicken out mate you’re dreaming.
Hey Glen they declined the invitation to come on………they chickened out.
Will Labors’ policies make housing more affordable?
Wayne Swan on Lateline telling us what Labor will do. Simple answer we will tinker at the edges and do nothing.
Other than workchoices and Climate Change there are few other differences between the parties.
And peak oil is approaching and both parties are massively spending on roads. The future these people are dills.
Glen – are you saying Tony Jones tells fibs. Shame on you.
Jones didn’t say that Will he just said Swan was the guest for tonight.
Agree LaborVoter. A wise man once said “Noone ever went broke underestimating the intelligence of the American people”. And re Rupert I heard him on radio today saying he wouldn’t be intervening or commenting on the Australian election.
You must have caught too many zeds Glen, Tony Jones did say thatCostello and Howard both declined.
Kina at 449,
My Mrs is Chinese too, and tho she has no interest in politics as she has never known democracy, she does love seeing and hearing Rudd kick it in Chinese.
You can’t tell me that Bennelong is safe for the Rat, cos if the Chinese/Asians there, the whole 17% of them, are anything like my Mrs (couldnt care less about politics but see a white guy who has taken time to learn their language) then Maxine is the next member for Bennelong
Whats on tommorrow, oh yeah the great GAFFEGATE DEBATE..Both Garrett and Turnbull will be quickly dispatched to their respective caves thereafter and little more will be said about climate change-environment issues until election day.
So, what will Rudd do to overcome his apparent electioneering fatigue and get the ‘gossip’ away from economic security and onto his trump cards ? I agree that more $$$$$ promises will not do it. Rudd has got this far by NOT scaring the horses.
Glen, he said the Treasurer and Finance Minister were asked to appear and they refused.
Glen, you obviously missed the intro……….they declined to come on. I am sure I can be backed up on this.
Thanks Billbowe.
That’s the news in WA?
Blardy hell!
And here I was thinking Qld was parochial!
If interest rates continue to rise under Labors very little approach this time next year Wayne Swan will be declining interviews on Lateline.
Glen at 471
Selective hearing from you I think. Jones said that he wanted a debate over interest rates but both Costello and Mincin declined to attend. Abbott is running late …
Yeah, but the Liberals are gutless, it goes without saying. Why else would they say inflation is an unavoidable consequence of a growing economy?
MarkyMarky,
Peak Oil may be approaching, but Peak Rabbit has passed.
The way Tony Jones is attacking Swan, you would think Labour has been running the country for 11 years.
Is Tony a JWH attack dog?, he has tried to wedge Swan about ten times, Swan has avoided everyone.
Glen……..nar nar nar nar nah!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Anyway as an aside an each way bet on Arapaho Miss in the Oaks might be worth considering.
And Howard is busy being told the new interest rate by Tracy Grimshaw.
ACTU Real People ad on Ch 7 Perth now. Seven News ran about 3-4 ALP ads compared to 1 Liberal ad.
Labor tries hard always fails
Liberal works hard always delivers
I know this is completely off topic & would be better posted elsewhere in a technical forum, but if anyone has been using RSS Feeders for a while & wouldn’t mind sharing what they use, I’d be most grateful.
[Liberal works hard always delivers] interest rate increases.
I thought Wayne Swan handled Tony Jones quite well
Labor tries hard, often succeeds
Liberal blowhards usually fail
@488
You can lead a horse to water….but you cant afford the delivery charge
A bird in the hand is worth a turd in the waterpipe….
Triffod @ 489, I use Firefox Browser with an RSS plugin….excellent.
I love people who think as far as ten minutes ahead.
Meanwhile tax breaks for rich through negative gearing continue causing people with nothing to struggle and what are our governments going to do about the wealthy who can afford to negative gear provide crumbs to people entering the market. What next.
Tabitha is just a liberal hack
Talks not from the mouth but from her crack
Still why would you want to give Swan any credibility by appearing on Lateline with him, Cossie and Howie were right not to give the Rooster the light of day. If Jones wanted a debate on interest rates he should have had it last week not the day of the rise of course they are not going to want to go on Lateline to get belted by Red Jones.
I saw the intro just not the intro of the Swan interview, i stand corrected.
@496 LOL
Triffid,
Feedreader is easy
http://www.feedreader.com/download
Costello shows his yellow belly again by refusing an appearance on Lateline. What a sorry excuse for a man.
Labor, failure, recession, unemployment, gloom
Liberal, success, boom time, job, happiness
You’ve gotta give it to Howard when it comes to forward planning; Ah, we are the party of GO FOR GROWTH. Crash Boom!! Ooops, inflation eh! Oh, OK, we are now the party for GO FOR SHRINK lol. Not even Maxwell Smart could sell that one.
God knows what they are going to trot out at the campaign launch, how many simultaneous campaigns are they actually running.
My question is this, if they can’t even plan a 6 week campaign without being shown up for fools how on earth can they be deemed capable of planning a 3 year term for the country.
Regarding Lateline and Tony Jones’ treatment of Swan, its an easy mistake to make (thinking labor are running the country). After all, Howard gave up governing straight after the budget at the start of the phoney campaign months ago.
Glen, there isn’t much point trying to convince us that Howard and Costello didn’t avoid Lateline. After all, if I were to promise you that I would vote Liberal it would be a “non-core voting intention”. You need to convince all the punters out there who were watching. They aren’t all deaf.
Costello and Howard have no economic credibility left because they think inflation and interest rate increases are good.
@501 LOL
I am going to bed….cancer medication sending me to sleep.
Goodnight all, catch up tomorrow
445
Possum Comitatus
Not a chance, oh glorious marsupial. It just doesn’t work that way. I’m sure the likes of Glenn Milne, Dennis Shanahan and in particular Greg Sheridan will have nice fluffy omelettes sprouting from their broken-capilliaried facades, but so did Alan Ramsey after the Latham debacle, and he’s still doing what he does. Shanahan might have his chubby little buttocks slightly paddled, but the press secretary to the Less Popular Costello will battle on and Sheridan will have to gulp back the bile once Hillary takes over the land of the free.
The commentators we all love to hate are paid to comment, and they will continue to do so. Janet and her pals will probably get the boot from the ABC board but not until the next round of appointments. Kevin07 will not want to look vindictive. As Old Bill was wont to opine, the quality of mercy is not strained. It droppeth as the gentle rain from heaven (oh Kevin!).
I still think a lot of lefties pay far too much attention to the naughty kiddies from the GG. I rarely read it until hooking up with this site, and I’m not Nigel there.
Glen 497 – Refusing to appear with Swan is a mistake. It shouldn’t be about Swan. It’s disrespect for voters.
Re RSS Feed Readers – Thanks Possum, sondeo
ShowsOn stop spreading lies find proof of Howard and Costello saying high inflation is good and interest rate rises are good and ill eat my hate, good luck mate!
Seriously you trash me for lies and yet you have done the same.
480
Dave55 Says:
November 7th, 2007 at 10:54 pm
Glen at 471
Selective hearing from you I think. Jones said that he wanted a debate over interest rates but both Costello and Mincin declined to attend.
Methinks that polling Textor commissioned on the interest rate knee jerk effect in the electorate tonight has clearly hurt JWH and they are running as fast as they can away from that subject, thank you very much. Next…..Who do you trust to…to… oops too late.
Bedtime for Bluebottle.
Marky,
There’s two problems with removing negative gearing:
(1) Proposing it from opposition will guarantee that they stay in opposition
(2) Abolishing it in government will guarantee that the government quickly becomes the opposition at the first available opportunity.
There’s ways that you can grandfather out negative gearing and reapply it to actually encourage an increase in the supply of housing and probably not be molested by the electorate in the process, but that’s a long topic not really suited to all things PollBludgerish.
But you cant expect anything about it to happen in an election campaign.
voterboy over are you out there? If so anu insider news from your Lib staffer?
Costello said it today! Do you ready ANYTHING? Costello said inflation was an inevitable product of a growing economy.
Face facts Glen, you are supporting a team of economic dunces.
459 It’s time, from memory the Monthly is around a few years old. It’s leftleaning and it’s some rich guy’s pastime. They were the only ones who had the guts to publish the Wendi Deng piece.
Dazzamack @ 474, from my straw poll of all in my Asian circle, everyone is impressed with Rudd. Told them that anyone who can speak Mandarin has my vote.
Glen,
If lying offends you, you must be quite disgusted with the Prime Minister by now?
Winston is right – today was national sorry day for Howard, and nothing else. No new policy, no interview, no appearance on Lateline. The Rat is in the bunker. Glen, if you are offered any cordial to drink in the next few days, I’d decline.
Glen why are bankruptcies at record highs under the Howard Government? I thought you said they were good economic managers.
Chinese people are for hard work and prosperity
Labor is for laziness and the dole
Careful, Glen hates communists.
ninemsn’s Passion Pulse has Lord Smirk-a-lot’s seat in doubt! Oh juicy manna from heaven. Picking up an 8.3% swing to ALP from around 900 votes.
Psephy people, can that really worth hoping for? Anyone been keeping an eye on Higgins? And are these Passion Pulse polls worth the html they’re written on?
I don’t think Higgins is in trouble.
Last week the Passion Pulse poll had about 300 – 400 votes per seat, and the seats it suggested were switching or in doubt were suprisingly likely candidates.
This week there are more than double the amount of votes per seat, but some of the seats are a bit strange. Higgins is probably the best examples of that.
It seems to me some vote stacking has gone on that the Pulse weighting doesn’t seem ot of accounted for.
I agree totally. Labor should do something about it in government. If Howard and Kennett can lie Labor should also.
I think on Negative Gearing Labor should reduce the amount of tax break provided and slowing decrease the amount of there on.
But of course it will not do that. NO GUTS.
It is gutless and to worried about its mates.
In 1988 it scraped negative gearing and then reintroduced it and look what happened it caused a bad recession in 1990-91. Again we heading down that same route but only this time it will be much worse.
LOL, funniest thing I’ve read, when have you ever done that!!
Be fair, Glen is writing a Ph.D. on ear wax, he has no time with “facts” unrelated to ear wax.
522 Don’t forget the Housing market took off after Howard cut the Capital gains tax.
Betamax: Passion Pulse had my seat going to green at one stage and i live in a semi-marginal liberal seat, i think it is the polling group with the most credibility????..
last time i looked costello was at $1.04… the labor candiate would be paying a good return… so worth a big punt if you believe that polling group
Possum 512
There are a host of things Government can do about housing affordability if they have the guts. But as you say, it won’t happen in this election campaign.
One simple option is to reduce the tax breaks for investors in high-priced housing and give more to lower priced housing. You don’t have to eliminate negative gearing – just structure it to encourage investment where it will produce the most public benefit.
Problem is Glen appears to have little else between his ears other than wax.
Ms Twain,
With the sole purpose of The Oz being influence, it’s key problem is that it’s losing it. Not only in a specific political way, but a general way. It still reaches the same demographic of eyeballs, but its problem seems to be that those eyeballs are continuing to become more promiscuous, and the attempts by The Oz thus far to adapt are not working, in many respects they’re all a bit pathetic.
That’s not a good look for a flagship.
I would have thought a new government would have been the perfect time to try and address that before it becomes a bit more terminal.It’s not like Rupert hasn’t done it before elsewhere around the planet.
That whole Overington stirring the pot thing is a case in point, that type of nonsense might generate a few more eyeballs and revenue in the short term, but it eats away at the foundations of the actual purpose and role of the brand, and they undermine their own readership demographic in the process.
It’s all a bit silly really.
The Monthly is a great read, despite the title sounding like a young lady’s personal issues. They published the Richard Flanagan story about Gunns Ltd that got Malcolm Turnbull’s former friend so hot under the collar. If you can get your hands on it, read it. You’ll never look at either side of politics the same way again.
Also published the oh so earnest Wendi Deng piece that Lindsay Voter mentioned but the great joy is the odd Robert Manne story (on the odd occasion he is on his game) but also probably the most lyrically skillful journalist working in Australia today, Gideon Haigh. Unfortunately, he mainly writes about cricket or big business, so if your interests don’t tend that way you will miss out. And if you are not interested in those two topics, you’re unOrstraylian.
ShowsOn you have lost all credibility you said you had clear evidence of Howard and Costello saying “Interest rate rises are good and i like them happening and i like high inflation it is good for our economy”.
They never said that and that just shows how you are full of yourself you are.
How long ago was that? How many votes had there been made for your seat?
There are no seats suggesting Greens will win now. The “Seats Under Threat” list is astonishingly reasonable in its prediction:
http://pulse.ninemsn.com.au/forecast/
Looks like the Chinese have got the US by the short and curlies.
http://news.brisbanetimes.com.au/dollar-slides-to-new-record-low-against-euro/20071107-18n4.html
Average Wednesday night demographic breakdown during FTA 8.30 – 9.30 pm
Ten – 1.481,000 ( 56.3% 18 – 49 ) & 58.0% of 16 -39
Nine – 1.098,000 ( 22.7% 18 -49 ) 52.2% over 50 +
Seven – 681,000 ( 21.0% 18 – 49 ) 19.3% over 50 +
ALP spend well during HOUSE.
Totally agree Steve, along with all the handouts on health, education and childcare and the tax cuts. The rich have done very well and look what will happen they will generally be immune whilst yet again working people and middle classes will feel the brunt.
Crispy (405) I don’t think people mind too much about lying, it is the point behind it that is important. Labor has tried making a deal of Howard lying in the past (overboard, WMDs etc.) and it has not worked.
By the way the main issue on interest rates in 2004 as I remember it, was not on keeping them at record lows, it was who do you trust to do so, Howard or Latham, and an important part of that was trust over the War on Terror, fact that has been air-brushed out of the rewriting of 2004.
Making it seem as though Howard is an IR demon makes him a conviction politician again, which is what he desparately wants (and why he started his campaign with his ‘love me or loathe me’ line). Even if it isunpopular, it is no matter, he has won elections on unpopular policies before (e.g. GST in ‘98) in fact he rather likes it. Labor was making headway exposing Howard as the empty shell he is, now they are going into reverse.
Howard pushed the “Go For Growth” signs to the sides and had the Australian flag behind him instead.
Seems “Go For Growth” was a bad choice for an election slogan… akekekeke
MarkyMark,
Not only do we have a housing affordability crisis, we also have a rent affordability crisis. Getting rid of negative gearing, even in small staps, reduces the profitability of investing in housing. The result is an even worse rental crisis, with the lower classes suffering the most.
536 Shrike
Surely Howard won despite GST, not because of it.
If you are suggesting that lower wages and reduced conditions for workers will help Howard, I beg to differ (to put it politely).
He meant growth of interest rates.
538 Midnorthcoast
Easy more social housing.
Shrike @ 536 I half agree with you on lying – people only care about lies if they are lies they care about – sadly most of Australia seems to not care about non-core lies…
Maybe, on re-reading that, I do agree with you?
536 So where to from here TPS?
Centaur @ 513. No, I haven’t spoken to him for a couple of days. I’ll give him a call tomorrow once the papers are out. I’ll also do a ring around of some of our bankers to see what the feeling is, but as I’ve said in the past few days, no one I’ve spoken to was willing to give Howard a chance if rates went up.
I think people can be too “clever clever” on this stuff (which is, of course, Rudd’s Hawker-Britton fuelled euphemism for the cunning Howard). Even I can see (as a biased Labor supporter, but one who works in the banking industry) that there is an economic argument that higher interest rates do not necessarily equal a dud economy. Equally, I can see that interest rates are in the hands of the RBA. But even the most fiscally illiterate voters – indeed, especially the most fiscally illiterate voters – see that here we have two men who three years ago gave the impression that they could control rates, and who, now that things have turned out badly, are denying responsibility. They can also see (even if they don’t fully understand the economics behind it), that two weeks ago Costello said inflation wasn’t a problem, so vote for us, and now Howard is saying inflation is a problem, so vote for us.
Labor does need to master the economic arguments, true, but Howard’s latest wheeze indicates that he’s aiming to penetrate voters minds on a subterranean level (Labor can’t be trusted) because the economic arguments and logical arguments don’t add up in his favour. Labor therefore should now hammer these lines – these people will say anything to get elected, and John Howard and Peter Costello are trying to blackmail Australian working families into paying for their mistakes. That rate rise – that’s you paying for their mistakes. Accompany it with a photo of the smirk. Hammer that nail in…
Steve @ 533 – that is most interesting. US$1.47 = 1 Euro is quite astonishing, I’d have thought. At what point does it become a very big problem for the US?
Marky Marky, you are truly a fundamentalist . You’d rather have no pig than settle for half a pig.
Half a pig still provides you with a lot of sausages, my little green Trotskyite, no pig merely gives you the opportunity of sleeping in the sty.
Just listened to PM off the ABC web site. If the locals interviewed in Lindsay are anything to go by Howard is well and truly doomed – none of them were leting Howard off the hook on interest rates.
Two points about negative gearing -
1. Australia is unusual in the world in that, by contrast with the US for instance, there is no limit on the amount that can be deducted.
2. On the other hand, as marginal tax rates fall (for most people), the true tax incentives in negative gearing diminish correspondingly. I use the word “true” because the fact is little understood by a lot of punters who are into it, but not on the top marginal rate. They assume it must be a winner, when in reality they are increasingly reliant on capital gains, rather than the tax lurk, to make a decent dollar out of it.
Which all tends to emphasise, I guess, that we are in a property bubble. At least during the notorious Dutch tulip bubble, every man and his dog were growing tulips like crazy – unlike housing here.
Brian are you saying more government housing?
If so how will it be funded- 3 choices:
1) Reduce other programs – which ones?
2)Increase Tax – which one?
3)Increase Government debt.
Which one of these do you prefer?
ShowsOn…
I think Higgins is worth a small bet. 8.8% swing required. Probable national swing of around 6-7%. Add to that the proximity to safe labor seats. Quite possibly a negative swing on account of the sitting member. And throw in some volatility for good luck.
Ok, I’m giving it a 20% chance, but just think about it.
Costello ends up with a 2% margin. That’s gonna cause some strife
Costello ends up losing by 100 votes. I’m gonna get newscasted
Looks to me that when JWH picked 24/11 he was trying to buy time and gambled on interest rates (remember how he attempted to argue that an increase could not be justified). The line about “a narrowing” was spin and we are seeing a slow destruction, instead a quick and humane removal.
Any Melbourne people want to comment on Higgins?
Mid North Coast- simple solution alter priorities. Scrap the stupid tax cuts or decrease the amount and use the money for more public housing. Or scrap the road funding priorities and use that money.
If you believe that landlords will reduce rents you are in fairy land.
VBooTWet @ 544 (and sorry if I got your tag wrong – make it simpler next time…)
Which arguments are you saying Labor needs to get right – this smacks very much of the old spin that “they” are bad by definition.
Please explain
Piping Shrike, I love your blogs.
What would you do if you were Rudd now?
544 This is a big move by China that has been brewing for months. The guts of it is here.
“The dollar was meanwhile further hurt by comments made by the vice chairman of China’s national parliament, analysts said.
Cheng Siwei reportedly said at a conference in China that his country should adjust the structure of its foreign exchange reserves, the world’s largest, suggesting that strong currencies ought to be given greater weight.”
There’s been plenty written on this in recent months and we could be seeing the decline of US world influence as China starts to overtake the US in financial dominance.
Could be handy to have a Mandarin speaking PM rather than a Bush sycophant from now on.
I’m hopefull this has hurt the Coalition but i’m not convinced.
Remember everytime we have thought an event should hurt the Coalition(the inparty bitch fight for example) the Coalition numbers have gone up.
Will the punters out there run to the Coalition to save them from the “economic boogeyman” or will the punters out there have a memory long enough that the ENTIRE Liberal Party campaign of the last election was built on the promise of keeping interest rates low???
Once again, don’t underestimate the stupidity of the average voter… we may all just get a shock next newspoll and see an increase in the Liberal Party vote.
Possum #529
Of course it’s a bit silly, oh magnificent pouched creature. That’s what publishing is all about and always has been. The Oz has retained its readership quite well over the years, the demographics are the right ones for the target advertisers to go after, and our dear friends on the political round are all paid their salaries by the people who pay a fortune to advertise in its inserts and magazines.
The fact that we here dislike the politics of the newspaper intensely does not negate the fact that the writing – stylistically speaking – is top notch and that newspaper readers want a national newspaper, whatever its faults.
Newspapers supposedly have been losing influence since the advent of television, but they still hang in there. If Kevin-0-heaven does get in, he’ll be happy enough to talk to any of the press gallery, whatever publication they are from. People forget things very quickly (excepting perhaps interest rates).
I should add here that I have never worked for Rupert, although I did spend a horrendous couple of months working for his nephew. As Marie Claire is not known for its political punditry, however, I think I’m safe from accusations of bias.
mad cow – I’d love to comment on Higgins but it would be pure speculation. But there’s always hope. I might flick a few bob in that direction, odds are good at the mo.
538 Midnorthcoast
Government debt i think, there is nothing wrong with debt if you can service it.
The Monthly
I don’t read it,but probably should.
Here’s an article on the history of it’s owner – Morry Schwartz:
http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2004/06/11/1086749891000.html?from=storyrhs
I’ve worked with him – definitely a person with convictions, and for good reason too.
Steve, Labor should be doing what it was doing before the campaign, telling the electorate the truth, that Howard is a fraud as a conviction politician and that has run out of ideas, rather than having a secret agenda, that Costello is a harmless joke, not an IR tough guy to be worried about. They might also stop scaring people about a piece of IR legislation that has been a flop and employers don’t need and will have no intention of extending even if the Libs take it further. Individual negotiations are a hassle for most employers and besides, they pay workers less on awards than AWAs.
The most glaring example of how weak the campaign has been is the way they let the Mersey Hospital fiasco slip through their fingers. Labor should be hammering again and again on how the Liberals were willing to pay politics on an intensive care unit that could have cost lives. They could also point how they didn’t even have the guts to bring in AWAs at Mersey Hospital because they don’t believe in it and will dump it if inconvenient. I did hear Gillard say that if they are not good enough for Mersey Hospital workers why for other Australians, but they should be making a much bigger deal of it.
They should also stop being defensive about Garrett, he is not an experienced politician so he will always make mistakes, Rudd is there to check him because Garrett has little real influence in the party. What Garrett does bring is passion for the environment, which is more than can be said for his counterpart who is only focussed on becoming PM (or holding onto his seat).
Winston, AWAs do not help Howard with Labor supporters but this election is about the Liberals’ base. Howard thinks GST actually helped him and I think he is right, what else did have going for him in 1998?
Brian spot on what is the problem with debt?
Government debt is the cheapest form of debt due to security it provides. But can’t have that, it is terrible. Much better to borrow privately and let bankers get great returns.
An ideological load of crap. Greed is what this country is about.
Tabitha 518,
What The hell do you know about Chinese people. Don’t go trying to speak for the Chinese, you wouldn’t have a clue what they are wanting at the moment. They are just like everyone else. The want a good life for their family and they see that they would be better off in the future if Rudd took hold of the reins. Who the f**k would want to have ‘Hard Work’ as their reason for living. God I hate Libs.
Libs are only good for one thing with me. As I am a Financial Planner, as soon as someone tells me they love Howard, I charge them double. Some dick in a country town near Perth, told me he was president for the Liberal Party in his region (O’Connor), so I instantly charged his $5,000 for my services.
Good night, time to go shag my Chinese missus.
Now, as a Monthly subscriber, I would like to suggest that the standard if writing is patchy. For every Richard Flanagan, there’s several fairly dull (if worthy) pieces by Robert Manne et al. I have great respect for the good prof but he’s not the world’s most engaging writer. Judith Brett on the other hand is terrific. A fair bit of dross in that rag, IMHO. Usually a couple of good pieces, and a fair bit of not very much. So there.
Dazzamarck, you are my type of person.
I live in Higgins, I think at best 4% swing making it more marginal. The funny thing has been that the electorate has a huge dislike for Howard and would be happier with Costello having the reins. Secretely people want the prime minister in their seat.
I suggest when Costello becomes the opposition leader that this seat blows back out to the 9s
Ms Twain
You forgot the wonderfully eloquent Robert Forster, arts and music scribe for the Monthly. The Monthly gets me from one Quarterly Essay to the next.
Someone should call the ACCC on Dazzamack from Perth if he does what he says he does, shameful just shameful.
MarkyMark – Decreased profitability in investment housing due to a loss of negative gearing will result in a decreased number of rental properties and resultant increased rent, not decreased. I guess you are suggesting more commission housing with a combination of tax increases and cutting back on other programs. I think both would make a party unelectable.
I agree with Brian, if you want to do it, and having grown up in a commission ghetto I must say that I don’t think it is such a good idea. I also wonder about the effects of such rent control/ subsidization on the housing and rental markets. After the Razor gang has cleared out accumulated government waste, I think the only acceptable method is with controlled government debt. I may be an old Keynsian, but I just don’t get this obsession about surplus budgets. Varying the budget according to economic conditions and the need for infrastructure must still have a place in the deregulated global economy.
564 Dazzamack from Perth
O’Connor is my electorate, don’t get me started on the LNP rednecks that live around here.
Costello told journalist that rates wouldn’t rise in November:
http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,22718436-953,00.html
Agreed CL #565. They need to ditch that arse Robert Forster as well. But it’s worth it for the odd gem and I’d pay to read Gideon Haigh write about plasterboard.
This is a brilliant post on CO’s Blog. I think it deserves a read, especially by you, Glen. I’m posting it here in case she erases it.
{ Funny stuff, detest, really funny stuff. I make sure to check long-term ABS statistics. According to those, Labor pushed unemployment rates from over 11% to around 8% between 1992 & 1996, against a rise in the participation rate of 2%. Nearly 1 million people started jobs during this time-around 500,000 of which were Full-Time-all without the benefit of a Mining Boom. By comparison, under Howard, Unemployment fell by only 2% between 1996 & 2003, in spite of slightly lower Participation Rates over this period. Actually, unemployment rose by 0.4% between 1999 & 2001, about the same time Interest Rates rose by almost 2%. Total employment over this time was about 1.2 million people, of which about 600,000 was full time. This equates to employment growth of nearly 4% per annum for the 1992 to 1996 period, compared to around 2% for the 1996 to 2003 period. Also, unemployment rates fell at an average of 0.7% per annum between 1992 & 1996, compared to around 0.3% per annum for 1996 to 2003. In the 4 years since 2003, even with a mining boom, unemployment has fallen by an average of 0.42% per annum. Also, your population growth rates are totally skew whiff (as are most of your so-called stats). In 1996, the population was around 18.4 million, & was 20.9 million as of this year. That means the population has grown by more like 2.5 million over 11 years-not the 4 million you claim-around 200,000 per annum. The population rose by around 800,000 per annum between 1993 & 1996, or around an average of 270,000 per annum. Oh, & may I remind you, detest, that this fall in unemployment rates occured against a backdrop of +3.2% productivity growth & falling Interest Rates. So, as usual, you are totally WRONG on pretty much everything &-unless you now have a valid e-mail address, perhaps its time Caroline followed George’s example & banned you from this blog site. }
WTF are you going on about now? Small businesses can charge whatever they like.
For a Liberal hack you often sound a lot like a communist.
562 Shrike
IR doesn’t just connect with traditional Labor voters.
Research shows that more than half of those who have swung to Labor have done so mainly because of Workchoices.
IR has been the defining issue of this election.
What else did Howard have going for him in 98? One term.
Whoops Middle Man! I think we need to agree to disagree there.
547 kina
Equally, Lindsay, if I recollect correctly, a couple of nights ago.
Sad at hearts. Not to mention the various roundups this evening, on radio. All ABC.
Voted Howard last time, not this time.
Someone was asking about Higgins before? Internal polling is showing a swing of about 8% to the ALP there. No on in the machine actually thinks it is winnable, but some extra bods have been sent there to lend a hand, and to give the libs the sh*ts.
Bennelong – a number of people who have seen the internal polling are having ‘value’ bets on Maxine. Not huge bets, but a couple of hundred or so. Smart tip is that Howard will scrap in in Bennelong, but Maxine will win it in a landslide in the by-election.
Some other polling results – these are based on marginals or semi-marginals only, but then almost everything is a marginal at the moment (at least if it is currently lib held).
Qld 12.9 %
Vic 10.1 %
NSW 10.something (it’s getting late for me).
All these numbers are expected to decrease, but seats where we thought we had no chance are now seen as possibles.
Also, as an aside and because of the interest rate stuff today there has been some interesting polling and focus groups on that. Basically if you target the group to those most likely to be affected by the interest rate hikes they are far more brutal in their assessment of Howard and cohorts than the general populace seem to be in Newspoll et al. Also what is coming out of it is that economic management at a Macro level they believe the Libs may be better, but when you go micro they think Workchoices is going to screw them personally and that Rudd will actually be better for their hip pocket.
As for betting, I got ALP at $2.50 in August last year on a hunch that interest rates where going up, Workchoices was going to be as popular conscription with the young, and that Beazley was already having numbers done against him. Best bet of my life at this stage. But I will be honest and admit to having a bet on Howard in Bennelong – but only because he is a value bet for a sitting PM at $1.40 in his own seat.
Sorry for being a long time lurker and not posting much – but posting from the office is not an option (thank god for 24hr internet cafes these days).
560 [Government debt i think, there is nothing wrong with debt if you can service it.]
Brian, depends very much whether debt is used for buying good income producing assets or just pissed up against the wall and wasted. If used for non income producing assets then debt becomes a problem whether or not it can be serviced.
For those who missed it, the segment by Associate Professor Steve Keen from the University of Western Sydney on the 7.30 Report was brilliant.
{STEVE KEEN, ECONOMICS, UWS: Well, it is going to make what might look like a farily minor increase in the amount of money that has to come out of the household budget that has to pay the new level of average mortgage payments just in term of the interest payments that are made on the mortgages. It’s going to go from 11.4 cents in the household dollar just to pay the interest on mortgages to 11.7. Now that doesn’t look like very much but if you go back and history and take a longer view and, say, what was it like 30 years ago in 1977, it was two cents in the dollar, so we’re talking virtually six times as much. You go back to 1990 which is when we had those of course, astronomically high nominal interest rates was 4.5 cents in the dollar. So even though we’ve go a substantially lower rate of interest now, it’s almost three times as much coming out of the household budget to cover interest payments, and just since the 2004 election, we’ve gone from eight cents in the dollar to now about 11.7. So almost 50 per cent higher again than during the 2004 election.}
http://www.abc.net.au/7.30/content/2007/s2084263.htm
Piping Shrike @562, wouldn’t it be fairer to say that Rudd is bordering on overcautious and is thus paying the price of letting the media drift in and out of the trivial?
If I were Rudd, I’d be a bit scared about making too much of an issue of Mersey. Its essentially only influenced local votes and fussing about it could have national risks.
I saw Gillard (I think) making the point about dodging AWAs wrt Mersey, but heck, that was Lateline. The mainstream media seem to disinterested in getting to the heart of the issue. And I’m not sure how Rudd can deal with that.
I think Howard’s appeal as a conviction politician sunk along with his credibility. A death of a thousand cuts, crowned by WorkChoices. So he can’t really do that. His last stand was with the NT intervention and that got drowned out by his own mismanagement.
And I really don’t know what Rudd can do now that would be a ‘master stroke’ of strategy. Nor do I think Howard has much left. Its the battle of the ads now, and the best that Labor can do is neutralise the scare and try to get back to ‘hwy we’re new and fresh and we really do have different policies’. Somehow. If only the press gave a rats.
Xamiam @554 (apologies for the delay – was trying to register with Centrebet!)
I’m not saying Labor has its economic argument wrong (they way I wrote it might have misled you). What I’m saying is that Labor’s message will probably pack a bigger punch if it goes for the emotional response (as I’m sure it already knows). It needs its economic argument in order for those times it’s on the ABC, but to cut through to the punters, it should just keep hammering the point that homeowners are paying for Peter Costello’s mistakes. And if the polling indicates that people think Smirkyboy is lazy, then that’s the message – he fell asleep on the job – you’re now paying for his years of inaction
Re housing affordability.
The cost of tax breaks to housing investors is around 8 times the amount spent on public housing, rent asisstance, etc. Anyone else think there is something wrong here?
I hear what you’re saying Shrike, and love your work, but I personally think the Howard campaign is kinda falling apart – held together now by a media narrative of narrowing and comeback, and alleged ALP gaffes.
The mersey scheme is dead (agree with you there, needs more focus), ‘go for growth’ has had to be shelved (I mean, seriously … the campaign slogan… gone!), his lieutenants (save Turnbull) are embarassingly, shockingly hopeless against their respective shadows, Abbott’s totally lost his mind, Downer had to be put down etc.
And above all, Rudd has managed to put together an economic counter-narrative that floats. Thats all he probably needs. Add a nuclear scare still up the sleeve and I cant see that banging the IR drum is bad campaigning. Its an establsihed negative for the government, and I suspect their confusing position (we need wage restraint, and yet magically, higher wages thru Workchoices) isnt to be feared – not likely to gain any more traction than they would have got anyway from assorted nervous nellies as the date drew near.
570 Midnorthcoast
Spot on about the commission ghetto’s, defeats the purpose of of social housing. The infrastructure should be spread across all socioeconomic suburbs, the obvious increased expenditure not withstanding.
Lefty, the worst problem for Rudd, is the failure of the media to grasp that his policies really are radically different, where it counts.
The dollar is in free fall and it’s going to have gigantic repercussions.
All those trillions of dollars floating around the world are not going to be worth the paper they are printed on. Dollars are the second currency in many “third world” countries and their owners in those countries are becoming poorer by the day.
If this crash continues at this rate for the next two weeks it could just have an effect on our election. The USA is heading for a severe recession, if not depression. The Chinese hold well over a trillion US dollars and they will want to switch those as swiftly as possible but who wants them? Oil will be sold in euros and other currencies.
We are witnessing the death of the dollar.
580 steve
Totally agree. Social housing produces both an income and social asset.
glad to see you go
Whats the thought on WA?
Thanks for taking the time to post. That was very interesting.
From Mark
588 On the other hand we may be seeing a closer tie between China and Europe. Consequently the UN could come into its own again rather than having the US roam the world playing policeman.
Hi Winston (576), I am open to surveys that show Workchoices has been important and genuinely ask if you know of any let me know. I was looking at the May ACNielsen and the October Newspoll and the focus groups conducted by Fairfax in September that suggest Workchoices is not the major vote-turning issue that everyone says. I agree that it has been a defining issue this election but more because the parties, and their supporters, are comfortable campaigning on an issue that used to define them and on which they were both formed. If IR was the real vote winner for Labor then they would not have replaced the leader most asociated with it with one who is at best lukewarm about the issue.
In reality I think the IR issue is dead, the unions lost. Keating finished them off and when both parties faced each other in 1998 they were empty shells. GST at least gave Howard the appearance of standing for something. Standing for something unpopular is often better than standing for nothing at all.
I don’t think the electorate care whether you have been in for one term or four, when they are sick of you they throw you out.
Not many details but this looks like the state by state of thelast 2 newspolls.
http://www.theage.com.au/news/National/Labor-leads-in-all-states-except-WA/2007/11/07/1194329324944.html
Agree, Mad Cow – and he stands for way more than Latham did, IMHO. All that 3rd way stuff was empty guff when you actually examined it.
The other problem is the media’s takeup of the ‘me-too’ line – failing to note that Howard’s also been doing it all year (broadband, renewable energy, GP centres in hospitals etc).
Anyway, media’s influence is much exaggerated. I think we’ve hit the final result about now. It will be 53-47, or close, on the night.
Rudd just needs a closing statement of add – going back to his inital themes (as Shrike wants) – and I suspect we’ll be seeing all that soon enough. You cant accuse Rudd of being ill-prepared.
Richard Jones @ 588
And tomorrow a sizable number of Europe’s major corporations – from Alstom, AXA, BNP Paribas, BT, Deutsche Telekom, ENEL, Hannover Re, Repsol-YPF, Siemens, etc, etc, etc, will be reporting their 3Qs, and the expectation is that there’ll be another bloodbath on the European markets…
My 6 year old likes to do the “Where’s Wally” books, and a few comments on this blog and elsewhere got me thinking we should start a game of “Where’s Johnny”
So, anyone who sees any Liberal candidates office, or literature, without a picture of JWH, can put up that seat in the “Where’s Johnny” competition.
Let’s see how many seats there are where we can say “Johnny’s not here!”
Here we go:
Seat of Oakleigh, where’s Johnny?
Johnny’s not here!
Lefty E agree with you, Howard’s campaign is a shambles. Rudd should be slaughtering him more than he is by now.
VoterBoy – are we talking serious decline in market valuation here?
La Trobe – Johnnie not here.
Hmm, Changing of the guard as Southern Cross Broadcasting is now under Fairfax ownership.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22708729-30540,00.html
I wonder if the right-wingers like Steve Price will jump ship ?
Lefty, I recommend this be posted to every light pole..
http://blogs.theage.com.au/koutsoukis/archives/2007/11/is_kevin_rudd_a.html
And btw, I’d be surprised to see a final result less than 53.5
Havent been watching much TV lately, so might have missed something.
If Labor wants to remind the voters about what was said about interest rates in 2004, why cant they replay a 2004 liberal ad like the one below superimposing “2004 Liberal Ad” and finishing up with authorised by XXXX.
“How much will an increase in interest rated cost on a $200,000 mortgage?”
“0.5% increase, you pay $83 dollars a month extra”
“A 1.0% increase, you pay $167 dollars a month extra”
“2.0% increase, you pay $333 dollars a month extra”
“And if they rose to the average they were last time labor were in power you
pay $950 a month extra, and that’s after tax.”
“Mark Latham and interest rates. good luck”.
I’m pretty sure this one was on tele a bit longer than two nights and to me it
gives the impression they were telling the punters we can avoid a 2% increase. But that’s just me.
CL @ 599. That’s certainly what I’ve been hearing this morning. While many of the houses (especially in the US), still think the economy’s in for a soft-landing, and that while there might be a recession in corporate earnings, it shouln’t have such an impact on the overall economy, every piece of research I’ve seen over the past few days flags near-term serious disruption. I don’t agree that this stuff should automatically favor Howard as a safe pair of hands, but Rudd needs to come up with a cut-through response that completely squashes this new line.
Well, I might let first year students ruminate on this, viz:
Question: Discuss the impact of the policy formerly known as “Workchoices” in the campaign formerly known as “Go for Growth”.
(20 marks)
Seat of Sydney, Johnnie’s here, but only on postal vote application forms. Bugger knows who the Lib candidate is around here anyway.
According to the GG.
The Nation Top Stories
Ben Cousins ‘back in Australia’
Balibo Five ‘cover-up’ claim
Aussie tipoff in child sex arrests
AFP to raise armoured unit
Ban on toy containing party drug
And not one mention of Interest Rate Rises.
VoterBoy – what’s happening on Wall St tonight our time?
584 Winston
Anyone with more than one neuron.
DEO – sorry, for the delay just wanted to check a couple of things:
Hasluck is looking good
Stirling is close
Brand is close – suprisingly.
Swan is close
Taking the middle ground WA is being seen as win one lose one -so break even.
Other points from some smaller sates if you are interested:
Tassie – Franklin had resources moved out of it and into Braddon because Franklin is looking good, Braddon was looking bad but the hospital mess is making it look good again. Expecting to get 4 out of 5 there, but a clean sweep is not out of the question.
SA, looking like a gain of 3 – Makin and Wakefield and whatever the hell the one that has about 80 votes in it (been running on about 4 hours sleep a night for 4 weeks now so mind is slowly turning to mush), although a couple of others are certainly in play.
NT – Solomon depends on the day at the moment. Hopeful, but one of the problems there is that organising on the ground is anything but organised to be honest and it is one of those seats where the locals get annoyed if too many people are flown in to help.
Oh, on the downside Bob Debus is in a real ding dong battle in Macquarie. The redistribution of Bathhurst from Calare into electorate is making it tough on both sides. Andren was loved there so now people don’t know what to do.
But I should stress that this election is still up for grabs, there has been no corks popped at all.
To me though it does smell of Vic in ‘99 around the place.
Shrike – acknowledge your comments, respect your blog.
I will try to get back to you with the research.
Swan says he won’t be copying the elusive coalition housing affordability policy if and when it is announced.
http://news.brisbanetimes.com.au/swan-says-govt-contributed-to-rate-hikes/20071108-18ok.html
Say, Scorp and mad cow.
If still there. Advice re broadband. Not actually off topic. Recollect I had the 12g etc broadband offer? Guess What? Telstra letter today. Some ambiguous inability to connect me to ADSL? Cannot do my number on exchange. Which I know to be absolute rubbish. Now, I rarely swear on line. But. WTF?
A futile hour and a half on phone, to Telstra. Some Telstraists agree. Also, WTF?
Seems that they have no ADSL ’spots’ left on the exchange.
But can get same package, sounds like, via cable, in street. I did say, this is a contract, you are held to it.
Their line kept dropping out.
Glen,I didn’t speak in terms of only one man.I spoke of the parties and the make up of the Parliament.To reduce the argument of experience to one man only is patently ridiculous.It takes more than your superhero to run a government after all.Your experience argument is still unsupported and is still quite silly.The only ppl perhaps supportive of it would be the great dictators of the 20th Century(your choice as to political persuasion!!)
Someone’s been spiking the water cooler at the GG! (OK, it’s not “Fantasy”, maybe there’s a new drug called “Reality”)
Check out Imre Salusinszky’s call for Maxine in Bennelong!
Here’s the video:
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22458164-5013871,00.html
I never said that i’ve always maintained that Labor’s front bench is much more inexperienced compared to ours.
My good standards of experience.
MP more than 10 years.
Shadow Minister for 3-4 years in the same portfolio.
Opposition Leader for at least 3 years.
I don’t think this is too much to ask for Bob, i’d expect it of the Coalition if we were in Opposition.
What you fail to understand is that you can gain experience in Opposition but the current ALP front bench and leadership team is very inexperienced. Rudd and Gillard have been MPs for less than 10 years and been leaders for less than 1 year. And many of Labor’s front benchers haven’t been in the one portfolio for more than 3 years either let alone been in Parliament for 10 years.
For those who missed Julia vs Shrek, here is full video via Government Gazette.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22626132-5013871,00.html
Crikey, Internode are now doing a special deal for telstra ‘rejects’.
Its a bit on the techy side but worth a look.
I think you can find the story and the links via http://www.whirlpool.net.au
Unless Internode have their own infrastructure in Crikey’s exchange, then the no spare ports problem will still occour.
Crikey,
If you want to see how many ports are free in your exchange go here:
http://www.telstrawholesale.com/products/access_broadband_reports.htm
clicking on the second and third links in the table will allow you to download excel files which will tell you how many free ports there are and when Telstra will add additional ports.
I can highly recommend internode meself!
Dont normally plug – but frankly, i need all you election obsessed cats reliably online to
a. endure my own complusive electoral blathering
b. furnish me with electoral minutiae otherwise not within my grasp
c. generally make me feel less alone in this deranged and monomaniacal state.
Frank, their promotion is only in some exchanges but its worth looking into.
CL De F at 608
It’s not Wall st, but today’s business headlines on BBC Business:
Petrol hits £1 a litre
Oil passes $98
Pound breaks $2.10
FTSE down 62 to 6412
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/default.stm
The Property Editor over at the Government Gazette has decided that a new day deserves a new scapegoat to blame for the Costello Interest Rate rises.
It’s the US economy to blame and not the Reserve Bank,outrageous spending, the Gummint, Inflation or good economic management.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22721708-5013871,00.html
Cl @ 608. Not sure at this point, as it opens in 8 mins and everyone’s a bit frantic. Will chase up and get back to you if there’s anything telling that not also being splashed across yr screens over there.
BTW, CD @ 615. Amazing stuff.
Thanks, mad cow.
Additionally, more than infuriating, as I said to the Telstraists.
The friend I asked Telstra to contact, upon their offer to me, accepted the offer and installed her modem today, though not wifi, unlike me, and has gone from dial up to delighted, as she had no idea of the difference it would make.
The ambiguous letter suggested no adsl to my phone. Rot, as said.
The phone call concessions are nice, but the cable stuff, as I push this contract, would surely be attractive? Speed matters? And I would ensure that they installed for free.
Seat of Isaacs, where’s Johnny?
Johnny’s not here!
Great, 619 Frank Calabrese, will check.
Did have Telstra checking exactly that this afternoon, but usual carry on, as I have said.
Hmm, I see what you mean, as those fresh new members are totally outperforming their tired opposites maybe you have a point there. Yes, you’re right Glen, it is indeed time for fresh new people with fresh ideas and vision for the future, new leadership sounds pretty good
628 That’s why Glen supported the Iraq war, he just loves regime change.
Brain death imminent.. shutdown
nite
http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,22721389-952,00.html
How low can you go?
Well, looks like Howard has more problems, it is still raining in Brisbane and the first cricket test starts today. Might have to don the raincoat and fly back to Bennelong nothing to see here.
VoterBoy, thanks for that. Sounds like an interesting day or two ahead!
Chris in LDN – thanks also. AU$ now apparently around 94USC. When will it hit par?
This is all going to play into the campaign. Hope Ruddie knows how to play it. Swan on Lateline tonight was very calm and sober, wouldn’t promise anything to help the battlers pay their mortgages other than infrastructure and capacity enhancement programs (education etc). Looks much more responsible than Costello at the present. PC looks distinctly unhappy.
Have a fun day guys! The Newspoll state by state should be fun …
,blockquote>JOHN Howard’s past has come back to bite him, with more than 100,000 Australians to be officially “mortgage stressed” as of this week.
And a fired-up Kevin Rudd yesterday moved to cash in on that economic uncertainty – all but calling John Howard a liar and urging voters not to give him another chance after breaching their trust on interest rates.
In one of his strongest attacks of the campaign, Mr Rudd said Mr Howard’s credibility was in tatters after the sixth interest rate rise since the last election, when the Coalition promised to keep them at record lows.
Mr Rudd accused Mr Howard of a “pattern of inaction” and demanded he accept full and unqualified responsibility for the rate rises, which he said would put extra pressure on working Australian families already struggling from rising petrol and grocery prices.
“Mr Howard today was still arguing the toss about whether in fact his promise to the Australian people back in 2004 was seriously meant or not,” Mr Rudd said.
“Well, working families did take Mr Howard seriously, they voted for him and he has breached trust with them on this core undertaking on interest rates.”
Shadow treasurer Wayne Swan said neither the Prime Minister nor Treasurer Peter Costello understood the “new interest rate reality”, and the debilitating impact any rises had on the community.
“They don’t understand the fact that these days you have to borrow three times as much, so a relatively small nominal interest rate rise carries a really big punch,” Mr Swan said.
http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,22721494-5013650,00.html
Howard needs credibility to convince 540,000 voters to change back to him in the next 16 days, around 34,000 a day, and methinks he’s blown it.
Who said that Tories aren’t thinking baseball bats in this election?
http://www.upperhouse.info/ArchiveView.aspx?EntryHeadId=161
I get a feeling that there mightt be more to the dropping of ‘Go for Growth’ too.
http://petermartin.blogspot.com/2007/11/congratualtions-on-winning-heres-bad.html
lol at the GGs attempt to spin their way out of this one
Business backs PM over interest rates
David Uren and Jennifer Hewett JOHN Howard yesterday intensified his warning that Labor’s industrial relations plans would drive interest rates higher.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22721869-601,00.html
Letterman just showed Bush congratulating Howard on his “Grandfatherhood” as part of the “Great Moment in Presidential Speeches.
Have to say Ross Gittens is the best and most straight forward economic editor we have. George M is getting there but Ross is still more straight forward.
http://www.smh.com.au/news/federal-election-2007-news/dont-believe-crocodile-tears/2007/11/07/1194329318917.html?page=fullpage#contentSwap1
Have to post this observation from Peter Hartcher, it really cracked me up
http://www.smh.com.au/news/federal-election-2007-news/howard-adds-a-new-concept-in-evasiveness/2007/11/07/1194329318908.html
Ahh Hartcher is finally unravelling Howie and Glen’s other great lie.
b4 i read the squillion posts i need to add my suppory to bb – mate i gave up 26 weeks 1 day ago =- a paltry 25 a day 16mg a day man – CT – i still wake up dreaming of a fag – but – my dad said i’d NEVER give up – he was an unimaginative prick (QED a queenslander) and he died of emphasema – PLEASE just say no to just ONE fag – the FIRST one (ps i went CT 2)
Howard also argued today that most people wouldn’t have even seen his 2004 comment at the time, so it didn’t really count.
He is an unmitigated shameless liar.
Haha now George is on the case of Howie and Cossie myth of the “big lie”
http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/meganomics/index.php/theaustralian/comments/line_dancing_labors_way/
Love the last line George, From Go for Growth to Hang On and Hope.
From the Liberal Party website account of the PM’s press conferece today.
JOURNALIST:
In 2004, the 7th of October, [...] you said you would keep interest rates at record lows. Why did you mislead the Australian people when you said that in 2004?
PRIME MINISTER:
Clinton, in an election campaign there are a lot of things said and not everybody listens to every interview, not even somebody as attentive as you would listen to every interview and read every newspaper article.
http://www.liberal.org.au/team/johnhoward/documents/07112007PressConferenceBrisbane.pdf
The new Liberal Party 2007 election slogan: “You Didn’t Hear it, So He Didn’t Mean It”
When John Howard makes that doesn’t happen he will never accept the blame, never accept he made any such promise or redefine his promise as a ‘non-core’ promise (something he never intended to do).
In other words you cannot accept anything John Howard says because he will say he didn’t say what you think he said. Who do you trust? How can anyone trust a man who has difficulty accepting what he has said when it is on the record in text and tape?
When John Howard asks ‘who can you trust’ – it is actually he that is one of the most untrustworthy politicians around. Wonder if the public will ever work that one out?
ESJ – WAY earlier – #40 or so -m it’s obvious u like the sinjin appellation – but i would dearly love you to expound on your wisdom – and its derivation – you know the kinda stuff – betta blood – betta schools – um – …
Oh my God, you need to check out the State by State Newspoll aggregation, it clearly shows WA is propping up the 53/47 figure for LNP. All other states is a lib wipeout.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/files/newspoll-8nov.pdf
Actually Midland is in the Federal Seat of Hasluck, not Swan.
Oh and the Doctor’s Union are opposed to these Clinics as they are “Impersonal and Beaurocratic”
OH and what about large Privately run Medical Centres ??
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22718438-5006789,00.html
“aggregate impression”
What a slimy shameless creep.
From Newspoll TPP aggregate Oct 26-28 & Nov 2-4, 2007
National 54/46 swing 6.7%
NSW 54/46 swing 5.9%
Vic 55/45 swing 6.0%
Qld 54/46 swing 14%
SA 58/42 swing 14%
WA 50/50 swing 5.4%
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/files/newspoll-8nov.pdf
648
Let It End Says:
November 8th, 2007 at 2:25 am
Oh my God, you need to check out the State by State Newspoll aggregation, it clearly shows WA is propping up the 53/47 figure for LNP. All other states is a lib wipeout.
Those numbers confirm what my Lib staffer mate told me the other week (posted on a thread somewhere here, tho I’ll never find it now) – especially in SA.
I don’t see any way they can get out of this now. I think it’s over.
And how could we let such calamitous results for HMAS Howie pass without the Shameahan spin. Seriously, this guy makes Glen and his ear wax sound plausible.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22721868-5014046,00.html
Election Night coverage line-ups announced.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22721793-30540,00.html
Koch, Doyle and O’Keefe?? Is that some kind of joke?
Nope, it’s serious – they’re even running the ads.
I’m surprised they’re not doing the National Election Night Bingo Game.
Higgins – Johnny wasn’t here, then he was here, now I’m not too sure.
Piping Shrike
Like the other posters here I’m an admirer of your blogs. I think your criticisms of Labor’s campaign are pretty spot on. Labor has played a very tightly disciplined game of lock-step with Howard.
The strength is that it has denied Howard opportunities for a wedge or a dog whistle – certainly that was the case with the ’save the children’ strategy, the Haneef arrest, even the Mersey Hospital. Given the perception of Howard as dominating the media, it was successful in nullifying Howard from diversions.
The weakness is that it reduces the extent of criticism of Howard’s agenda, and diminishes Labor’s efforts to establish a new direction.
I know that you don’t accept IR/Workchoices as so dominant in the campaign. To the point that it’s not on everyone’s lips, I’d agree. But I’d also agree with the McKerras thesis that springing it on us without notice was a serious breach of trust. The ‘no argument’ approach to rushing it through compounded that impression. It was a turning point in the way Howard was viewed. After that, anything he said or did was viewed for the political motives behind it.
And oddly enough, that was pretty well the correct perception. Everything he does is for the political implications – hence his rush to embrace nuclear energy as a belated attempt to catch up on climate change, while still trying a wedge.
So I’d say Workchoices led to that change in belief about Howard.
On another matter, assuming from your pen-name you’re a South Aussie, how do you think Nicole Cornes is going in Boothby? My impression, from Phil Robins occasional posts is that, despite the bagging she’s getting from MSM and political insiders, she’s actually faring quite well with voters at large.