Reuters’ fortnightly labour-saving device, Poll Trend, shows the two-party gap narrowing to 54.8-45.2 from 56.2-43.8 last time out. This is achieved by aggregating results from Newspoll, Morgan and ACNielsen and “smoothing volatility by using a five-term Henderson moving average”. Labor’s primary vote is down from 48.3 per cent to 47.8 per cent, with the Coalition up from 39.5 per cent to 40.8 per cent. A weekly breakdown shows that almost all of this movement came in the week before last.
UPDATE: Surprising news from SportingBet: “punters have flocked to the Coalition since this morning’s rate rise with 96% of money bet with Australia’s biggest bookmaker, Sportingbet Australia, going to the Coalition since the Reserve Bank’s announcement was made”.
658 Comments
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Hmm, Changing of the guard as Southern Cross Broadcasting is now under Fairfax ownership.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22708729-30540,00.html
I wonder if the right-wingers like Steve Price will jump ship ?
Lefty, I recommend this be posted to every light pole..
http://blogs.theage.com.au/koutsoukis/archives/2007/11/is_kevin_rudd_a.html
And btw, I’d be surprised to see a final result less than 53.5
Havent been watching much TV lately, so might have missed something.
If Labor wants to remind the voters about what was said about interest rates in 2004, why cant they replay a 2004 liberal ad like the one below superimposing “2004 Liberal Ad” and finishing up with authorised by XXXX.
“How much will an increase in interest rated cost on a $200,000 mortgage?”
“0.5% increase, you pay $83 dollars a month extra”
“A 1.0% increase, you pay $167 dollars a month extra”
“2.0% increase, you pay $333 dollars a month extra”
“And if they rose to the average they were last time labor were in power you
pay $950 a month extra, and that’s after tax.”
“Mark Latham and interest rates. good luck”.
I’m pretty sure this one was on tele a bit longer than two nights and to me it
gives the impression they were telling the punters we can avoid a 2% increase. But that’s just me.
CL @ 599. That’s certainly what I’ve been hearing this morning. While many of the houses (especially in the US), still think the economy’s in for a soft-landing, and that while there might be a recession in corporate earnings, it shouln’t have such an impact on the overall economy, every piece of research I’ve seen over the past few days flags near-term serious disruption. I don’t agree that this stuff should automatically favor Howard as a safe pair of hands, but Rudd needs to come up with a cut-through response that completely squashes this new line.
Well, I might let first year students ruminate on this, viz:
Question: Discuss the impact of the policy formerly known as “Workchoices” in the campaign formerly known as “Go for Growth”.
(20 marks)
Seat of Sydney, Johnnie’s here, but only on postal vote application forms. Bugger knows who the Lib candidate is around here anyway.
According to the GG.
The Nation Top Stories
Ben Cousins ‘back in Australia’
Balibo Five ‘cover-up’ claim
Aussie tipoff in child sex arrests
AFP to raise armoured unit
Ban on toy containing party drug
And not one mention of Interest Rate Rises.
VoterBoy – what’s happening on Wall St tonight our time?
584 Winston
Anyone with more than one neuron.
DEO – sorry, for the delay just wanted to check a couple of things:
Hasluck is looking good
Stirling is close
Brand is close – suprisingly.
Swan is close
Taking the middle ground WA is being seen as win one lose one -so break even.
Other points from some smaller sates if you are interested:
Tassie – Franklin had resources moved out of it and into Braddon because Franklin is looking good, Braddon was looking bad but the hospital mess is making it look good again. Expecting to get 4 out of 5 there, but a clean sweep is not out of the question.
SA, looking like a gain of 3 – Makin and Wakefield and whatever the hell the one that has about 80 votes in it (been running on about 4 hours sleep a night for 4 weeks now so mind is slowly turning to mush), although a couple of others are certainly in play.
NT – Solomon depends on the day at the moment. Hopeful, but one of the problems there is that organising on the ground is anything but organised to be honest and it is one of those seats where the locals get annoyed if too many people are flown in to help.
Oh, on the downside Bob Debus is in a real ding dong battle in Macquarie. The redistribution of Bathhurst from Calare into electorate is making it tough on both sides. Andren was loved there so now people don’t know what to do.
But I should stress that this election is still up for grabs, there has been no corks popped at all.
To me though it does smell of Vic in ‘99 around the place.
Shrike – acknowledge your comments, respect your blog.
I will try to get back to you with the research.
Swan says he won’t be copying the elusive coalition housing affordability policy if and when it is announced.
http://news.brisbanetimes.com.au/swan-says-govt-contributed-to-rate-hikes/20071108-18ok.html
Say, Scorp and mad cow.
If still there. Advice re broadband. Not actually off topic. Recollect I had the 12g etc broadband offer? Guess What? Telstra letter today. Some ambiguous inability to connect me to ADSL? Cannot do my number on exchange. Which I know to be absolute rubbish. Now, I rarely swear on line. But. WTF?
A futile hour and a half on phone, to Telstra. Some Telstraists agree. Also, WTF?
Seems that they have no ADSL ’spots’ left on the exchange.
But can get same package, sounds like, via cable, in street. I did say, this is a contract, you are held to it.
Their line kept dropping out.
Glen,I didn’t speak in terms of only one man.I spoke of the parties and the make up of the Parliament.To reduce the argument of experience to one man only is patently ridiculous.It takes more than your superhero to run a government after all.Your experience argument is still unsupported and is still quite silly.The only ppl perhaps supportive of it would be the great dictators of the 20th Century(your choice as to political persuasion!!)
Someone’s been spiking the water cooler at the GG! (OK, it’s not “Fantasy”, maybe there’s a new drug called “Reality”)
Check out Imre Salusinszky’s call for Maxine in Bennelong!
Here’s the video:
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22458164-5013871,00.html
I never said that i’ve always maintained that Labor’s front bench is much more inexperienced compared to ours.
My good standards of experience.
MP more than 10 years.
Shadow Minister for 3-4 years in the same portfolio.
Opposition Leader for at least 3 years.
I don’t think this is too much to ask for Bob, i’d expect it of the Coalition if we were in Opposition.
What you fail to understand is that you can gain experience in Opposition but the current ALP front bench and leadership team is very inexperienced. Rudd and Gillard have been MPs for less than 10 years and been leaders for less than 1 year. And many of Labor’s front benchers haven’t been in the one portfolio for more than 3 years either let alone been in Parliament for 10 years.
For those who missed Julia vs Shrek, here is full video via Government Gazette.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22626132-5013871,00.html
Crikey, Internode are now doing a special deal for telstra ‘rejects’.
Its a bit on the techy side but worth a look.
I think you can find the story and the links via http://www.whirlpool.net.au
Unless Internode have their own infrastructure in Crikey’s exchange, then the no spare ports problem will still occour.
Crikey,
If you want to see how many ports are free in your exchange go here:
http://www.telstrawholesale.com/products/access_broadband_reports.htm
clicking on the second and third links in the table will allow you to download excel files which will tell you how many free ports there are and when Telstra will add additional ports.
I can highly recommend internode meself!
Dont normally plug – but frankly, i need all you election obsessed cats reliably online to
a. endure my own complusive electoral blathering
b. furnish me with electoral minutiae otherwise not within my grasp
c. generally make me feel less alone in this deranged and monomaniacal state.
Frank, their promotion is only in some exchanges but its worth looking into.
CL De F at 608
It’s not Wall st, but today’s business headlines on BBC Business:
Petrol hits £1 a litre
Oil passes $98
Pound breaks $2.10
FTSE down 62 to 6412
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/default.stm
The Property Editor over at the Government Gazette has decided that a new day deserves a new scapegoat to blame for the Costello Interest Rate rises.
It’s the US economy to blame and not the Reserve Bank,outrageous spending, the Gummint, Inflation or good economic management.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22721708-5013871,00.html
Cl @ 608. Not sure at this point, as it opens in 8 mins and everyone’s a bit frantic. Will chase up and get back to you if there’s anything telling that not also being splashed across yr screens over there.
BTW, CD @ 615. Amazing stuff.
Thanks, mad cow.
Additionally, more than infuriating, as I said to the Telstraists.
The friend I asked Telstra to contact, upon their offer to me, accepted the offer and installed her modem today, though not wifi, unlike me, and has gone from dial up to delighted, as she had no idea of the difference it would make.
The ambiguous letter suggested no adsl to my phone. Rot, as said.
The phone call concessions are nice, but the cable stuff, as I push this contract, would surely be attractive? Speed matters? And I would ensure that they installed for free.
Seat of Isaacs, where’s Johnny?
Johnny’s not here!
Great, 619 Frank Calabrese, will check.
Did have Telstra checking exactly that this afternoon, but usual carry on, as I have said.
Hmm, I see what you mean, as those fresh new members are totally outperforming their tired opposites maybe you have a point there. Yes, you’re right Glen, it is indeed time for fresh new people with fresh ideas and vision for the future, new leadership sounds pretty good
628 That’s why Glen supported the Iraq war, he just loves regime change.
Brain death imminent.. shutdown
nite
http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,22721389-952,00.html
How low can you go?
Well, looks like Howard has more problems, it is still raining in Brisbane and the first cricket test starts today. Might have to don the raincoat and fly back to Bennelong nothing to see here.
VoterBoy, thanks for that. Sounds like an interesting day or two ahead!
Chris in LDN – thanks also. AU$ now apparently around 94USC. When will it hit par?
This is all going to play into the campaign. Hope Ruddie knows how to play it. Swan on Lateline tonight was very calm and sober, wouldn’t promise anything to help the battlers pay their mortgages other than infrastructure and capacity enhancement programs (education etc). Looks much more responsible than Costello at the present. PC looks distinctly unhappy.
Have a fun day guys! The Newspoll state by state should be fun …
,blockquote>JOHN Howard’s past has come back to bite him, with more than 100,000 Australians to be officially “mortgage stressed” as of this week.
And a fired-up Kevin Rudd yesterday moved to cash in on that economic uncertainty – all but calling John Howard a liar and urging voters not to give him another chance after breaching their trust on interest rates.
In one of his strongest attacks of the campaign, Mr Rudd said Mr Howard’s credibility was in tatters after the sixth interest rate rise since the last election, when the Coalition promised to keep them at record lows.
Mr Rudd accused Mr Howard of a “pattern of inaction” and demanded he accept full and unqualified responsibility for the rate rises, which he said would put extra pressure on working Australian families already struggling from rising petrol and grocery prices.
“Mr Howard today was still arguing the toss about whether in fact his promise to the Australian people back in 2004 was seriously meant or not,” Mr Rudd said.
“Well, working families did take Mr Howard seriously, they voted for him and he has breached trust with them on this core undertaking on interest rates.”
Shadow treasurer Wayne Swan said neither the Prime Minister nor Treasurer Peter Costello understood the “new interest rate reality”, and the debilitating impact any rises had on the community.
“They don’t understand the fact that these days you have to borrow three times as much, so a relatively small nominal interest rate rise carries a really big punch,” Mr Swan said.
http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,22721494-5013650,00.html
Howard needs credibility to convince 540,000 voters to change back to him in the next 16 days, around 34,000 a day, and methinks he’s blown it.
Who said that Tories aren’t thinking baseball bats in this election?
http://www.upperhouse.info/ArchiveView.aspx?EntryHeadId=161
I get a feeling that there mightt be more to the dropping of ‘Go for Growth’ too.
http://petermartin.blogspot.com/2007/11/congratualtions-on-winning-heres-bad.html
lol at the GGs attempt to spin their way out of this one
Business backs PM over interest rates
David Uren and Jennifer Hewett JOHN Howard yesterday intensified his warning that Labor’s industrial relations plans would drive interest rates higher.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22721869-601,00.html
Letterman just showed Bush congratulating Howard on his “Grandfatherhood” as part of the “Great Moment in Presidential Speeches.
Have to say Ross Gittens is the best and most straight forward economic editor we have. George M is getting there but Ross is still more straight forward.
http://www.smh.com.au/news/federal-election-2007-news/dont-believe-crocodile-tears/2007/11/07/1194329318917.html?page=fullpage#contentSwap1
Have to post this observation from Peter Hartcher, it really cracked me up
http://www.smh.com.au/news/federal-election-2007-news/howard-adds-a-new-concept-in-evasiveness/2007/11/07/1194329318908.html
Ahh Hartcher is finally unravelling Howie and Glen’s other great lie.
b4 i read the squillion posts i need to add my suppory to bb – mate i gave up 26 weeks 1 day ago =- a paltry 25 a day 16mg a day man – CT – i still wake up dreaming of a fag – but – my dad said i’d NEVER give up – he was an unimaginative prick (QED a queenslander) and he died of emphasema – PLEASE just say no to just ONE fag – the FIRST one (ps i went CT 2)
Howard also argued today that most people wouldn’t have even seen his 2004 comment at the time, so it didn’t really count.
He is an unmitigated shameless liar.
Haha now George is on the case of Howie and Cossie myth of the “big lie”
http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/meganomics/index.php/theaustralian/comments/line_dancing_labors_way/
Love the last line George, From Go for Growth to Hang On and Hope.
From the Liberal Party website account of the PM’s press conferece today.
JOURNALIST:
In 2004, the 7th of October, [...] you said you would keep interest rates at record lows. Why did you mislead the Australian people when you said that in 2004?
PRIME MINISTER:
Clinton, in an election campaign there are a lot of things said and not everybody listens to every interview, not even somebody as attentive as you would listen to every interview and read every newspaper article.
http://www.liberal.org.au/team/johnhoward/documents/07112007PressConferenceBrisbane.pdf
The new Liberal Party 2007 election slogan: “You Didn’t Hear it, So He Didn’t Mean It”
When John Howard makes that doesn’t happen he will never accept the blame, never accept he made any such promise or redefine his promise as a ‘non-core’ promise (something he never intended to do).
In other words you cannot accept anything John Howard says because he will say he didn’t say what you think he said. Who do you trust? How can anyone trust a man who has difficulty accepting what he has said when it is on the record in text and tape?
When John Howard asks ‘who can you trust’ – it is actually he that is one of the most untrustworthy politicians around. Wonder if the public will ever work that one out?
ESJ – WAY earlier – #40 or so -m it’s obvious u like the sinjin appellation – but i would dearly love you to expound on your wisdom – and its derivation – you know the kinda stuff – betta blood – betta schools – um – …
Oh my God, you need to check out the State by State Newspoll aggregation, it clearly shows WA is propping up the 53/47 figure for LNP. All other states is a lib wipeout.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/files/newspoll-8nov.pdf
Actually Midland is in the Federal Seat of Hasluck, not Swan.
Oh and the Doctor’s Union are opposed to these Clinics as they are “Impersonal and Beaurocratic”
OH and what about large Privately run Medical Centres ??
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22718438-5006789,00.html
“aggregate impression”
What a slimy shameless creep.
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