The Australian has produced another set of Newspoll geographic and demographic breakdowns, suggesting we will be getting such figures compiled from the previous two weekly surveys each Thursday. That means both today’s breakdown and last Thursday’s were half composed of the October 26-28 survey. To produce these figures, Newspoll has increased its samples from 1000 to 1700, the extras coming from smaller states so that each has a credible sample of between 650 and 700 over a fortnight. As well as this, Newspoll is evidently doing more specialised surveys on weekdays for publication on Saturday (sometimes, at least – there was no such survey at the end of week two). So far we have been given the Bass and Braddon polls that appeared at the end of week one, along with last weekend’s marginal seats survey. The Australian’s editor Chris Mitchell, or someone who did a very good impression of him, appeared in comments a few days ago saying the latter exercise would be repeated later in the campaign.
The chart below shows how Newspoll’s projected swings to Labor have tracked out since the middle of last year. It seems that with the exception of Western Australia, the figures were closely knotted together until the election was announced, at which point they scattered: the swing has held firm in Queensland and South Australia, but returned to earth in New South Wales and Victoria. This provides corroborating evidence which had previously been lacking for the relatively mediocre NSW swing in the weekend’s marginal seat poll. That the Victorian swing is now level with Western Australia’s is perhaps more of a surprise. And then there are those swings in Queensland and South Australia, which seem firmly set in double figures. If that’s the case, Queensland will almost deliver Labor the election single-handedly, with 14 seats to fall from a uniform swing of 11 per cent. In South Australia, every figure Newspoll has produced since Rudd became leader suggests Labor should win big in Sturt and Boothby, a prospect most informed observers seem reluctant to countenance.
Last night’s comments action also brought forth some purported intelligence on Labor internal polling, which you can read here and here. This may of course be a red herring of one kind or another, but my instinct is to take people who name themselves after Ramones songs at their word.
1,157 Comments
If this doesn’t get Howard lacerated by MSM then all hope for the press is lost!
Aggregate impression indeed!
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,22722502-5012863,00.html
Eventually Labor have started to talk about the dollar value in your wage. Rattua Rattus can scurry about all he likes and tell us all what he meant he said ( anyone remember that Two Ronnies song – We knew what she mean’t, but we heard what she said). And still more than two weeks to go – will they be able to hide the rat away – after all the gaffes – which Liberal will be last one left standing?
Needless to say, it will be interesting to see if the swing in the NSW and Victorian mortgage-belt marginals will still be this low in the first poll after the interest rate rise.
There is an obvious temptation for Labor to mount a scare campaign about a likely second rise but I hope they stay positive instead.
This says three things to me
The chance of Labor getting control of the senate is small.
Iemma has influenced this election.
Queensland swung so hard last time it was bound to swing back to the local boy, Coalition need to capitalise on his mistakes when up there to find a hot issue to bring some back to the fold.
Indeed, Queensland will deliver Rudd the Prime Ministership almost by itself, on these numbers. South Australia is so good as well that it will seal the deal. At least 5 seats will go there. Even in Vic and WA where the swing is not so great, we can expect some pickups for Labor. This is most definitely going to be a Ruddslide.
This is still good news for Labor – and dont forget Tasmania!
Oops!
http://news.brisbanetimes.com.au/dr-karl-admits-mistake-over-clean-coal/20071108-18p1.html
Hi Brissy Rod,
How could forget Tasmania….
Newspoll says naumbers for Tasmania are inlcuded in Victoria.
Is it therefore reasonable to assume the Victorian numbers overstate the ALP position?
$1.30 on Labor is about 100 times better than bank interest…and tax free. Just think, 30 % for 3 weeks … That’s an annualised return around 500%.
Everyone, extend you mortgage, plonk a massive sum on Labor, get out and vote early and often, and on 25 November, collect the return and reduce your debt. Can your self managed super fund make such and investment?
Good move that, putting a Queensland boy in the driver’s seat. A parochial vote in a state where even getting to just 51/49 TPP delivers seven seats to Labor.
Not to take anything away from Kevin’s skills. I am full of admiration so far.
And I just can’t fathom that NSW swing heading south so abruptly. How do margins of error work when we talk about swings?
Peoples… Forget the over-analysis. Trying to pick state or seat swings and there whether Labor get 80 or 90 seats is like trying to work out whether it will be Ponting, Gilchrist or Symonds who gets the runs in the test and whether its Lee or Magill who gets the wickets. Who cares…the team will deliver.
My Liberal party insider told me a week ago (the transcript is here someone on one of these threads) that the party was in deep doo-doo in SA and Qld.
All this would seem to bear it out.
I think that the high household debt levels and dreadful personal savings rate under Howard that will crucify any scare campaign Howard tries to run. Seems too many people made themselves asset rich and income poor. What I can’t understand is why has the Government and the Reserve Bank taken action against these high houshold debt levels rather than just note them and do nothing.
http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/mf/5202.0?OpenDocument
I’m with Crispy, that NSW figure looks a little dodgy to me. Everywhere else seems to be holding up nicely , esp. Qld
The inclusion of Tasmania in Victoria would seem to distort Vic a little.
Most states show a drop in support for the Greens since last election typicallly about a 40% drop eg 5% down to 3%.
Victoria bucks that trend but I suspect that is the Tasmanian effect.
I wonder if this is being factored into senate predictions.
The Iemma Govt in N.S.W is getting hammered in the media for everything fom public hospitals to the dept of community services, so this might be impacting slightly on Rudd’s vote in this state. The Ruddster is in Eden Monaro today, the Rodent in Melbourne.
It’s interesting the media yet hasn’t focused on Sturt: Christopher Pyne would seem to be in a heap of trouble!
The press is just all over Howie today. Not a good look.
It’s fantastic.
The “aggregate impression” idea will gain a lot of traction, negatively. This is Howard thumbing his nose at people who trusted him. It won’t go down well.
Howard’s problem is that he cannot admit he made a mistake. Never has been able to. Even yesterday’s “Sorry” was more of an observation than an apology.
I believe that is appropriately called “hubris”.
P.S. Day #3 of no ciggies.
Seems like 3 years so far, but getting easier. Thanks to all who’ve encouraged me. Your support’s been great and has been a REAL help.
You don’t realise just how much having a fag punctuates your life and gives you excuses for putting things off. The aim, I think, is to find something to do to fill the spare time you now have.
A portrait of November 25.
http://petermartin.blogspot.com/
Hey congratulations Bill,
I gave up 18 months ago, best thing I ever did.
I have questioned a number of times on this blog why the NSW poll results for Labor were so high, given the obvious unpopularity of the State Government and that it’s Howard’s home state. No-one ever provided me with a reply. Perhaps the truth is that the NSW swing isn’t is big as people were making out.
And I was also confident that Queenslanders (from whom I am descended) would vote in droves for the local PM. That also appears to be happening.
On these state breakdowns, it does appear that Labor will win, but it’s possible no-one will be claiming victory or conceding defeat till very late in the late, when the WA results come in.
Still a bit early to make definitive predictions, with the campaign launches and the effect of the interest rate rise still to affect the polls.
Queensland will not deliver labor that many seats at all. The recent Galaxy poll of the queensland marginals shows this. Most of the sitting coalition MP’s in QLD are popular local members with a high profile in the community. The newspoll figure for QLD to me seems a bit rogueish.
Anyone think Rudd will match or beat the Coalition’s promise on parental leave? That’s about the first decent policy I’ve heard them put out in about 10 years. I would like to see something similar or better from Labor, and would have expected that they’d have something in the pipeline (there were rumours about this Coalition policy a couple of weeks ago).
6% swing to ALP in Victoria.
Victoria historically is a small swinging state where normally anything over 3% is a landslide.
One thing that may be being the NSW swing back is the Liberals appear to be putting extra effect into it’s heartland seats e.g. North Sydney.
I also think the Lemma Govt is less popular than any other State Govt but when all is done and dusted if the ALP pick up half-a-dozen seats in NSW they should be nicely placed to win over-all.
Onto other matters – I don’t think the latest interest rate rise will hurt the Govt for the previous five have already turned voters towards the ALP.
What this rate rise will do is cement the primary vote numbers making any late swings one way or another less likely.
“Rogueish”? Oh please. This is a set, how can it be rogueish?
After hearing Howard and the coalition adds, Labor should just confront his claims directly now.
He says “who do you trust to manage interest rates (when they are high)”.
Labor should respond: John Howard has lied about everything consistently throughout his time in office (no GST, children overboard, Workchoices, now record low interest rates). He couldn’t be trusted last time, why would you trust him now?
Labor’s theme song shouldn’t be “Its Time”.
Rather the Who’s “Don’t Get Fooled Again”.
Newspoll shows labor to pick up 6-7 seats in NSW, but should be more on the night.
And have yet to see the reaction to Howards latest interest rate increase and the usual dodging of responsibility for it.
Nothing displays the cold calloness of the libs than their response to the interest rate rises.
The typical comment is that if home owners can’t handle the $125 per month mortgage increase of this latest rise they shouldn’t have bought their house in the first place.
However, this is the sixth increase since Howard promised to keep interest rates at record lows, an extra $750 per month, and the tenth increase in a row, an extra $1,250 per month.
Even the most fervent liberal would surely be feeling the pain of an extra $1,250 a month, maybe not, maybe mummy’s and dahdies trust fund covers that.
The polls in WA have shown a consistent swing of about five percent to the ALP. If this holds WA will deliver a gain of two seats [Hasluck and Stirling] to Rudd.
Things are getting closer in WA. The ALP vote is up over 10% across the State since 2004 election and approaching 6% on TPP. Donkey vote and absence of Graeme Campbell might just tip Sharon Thiel over the line in Kalgoorlie.
‘Labor View from Broome’
24 Thommo. Disneyland.
Kev
I reckon labor will pick up at 4-5 in WA, Kalgoorlie will be close as you say and Forrest could go to an independent.
Anything on Pearce?
Like some above, I too am a little perplexed by the NSW ‘clawback’, (and as a certain arboreal marsupial would say, WTF is going on in Vic?). Still if Arbie Jay @ 29 is correct, NSW will top off nicely the big gains in QLD and SA. Any body keen to venture a state by state tip on seats gained?
I think that the Iemma Govt has little do with reducing the swing – influences only Liberal voters. The bottom line is that Iemma was returned in March despite the enormous negative swing.
The numbers which are not discussed is not just the outlier values, but those values which are in the 65-85 percentile. I’m amused to see housing loans quoted at $200K because in most of the big Liberal areas, forgetting Western Sydney, the loan values are much higher. I bet these people can be panicked like a flock of sparrows. These are the people which can be swung back to Labor in the last week with a decent scare campaign, or even just letting a few sloppy Liberal ministers loose on the electorate.
ifonly #16
Are Tassie figures included in the Victoria numbers? In the legend to the table, it just says Tasmiania figures are included in the total.
Maybe the Victoria figures do show a 6% swing by themselves, which should yield at least 2 seats to ALP.
I worry sincerely that Labor is making a strategic error by continuing to engage heavily on the interest rate issue now that the rise is yesterday’s news.
My advice, for what it’s worth: Let the rate rise speak for itself, let Howard’s apology speak for itself, and change the subject as quickly as possible.
I know that sounds absurd to many but this is the logic:
Many voters with little interest in politics swung over to Rudd because they felt SAFE to do so. Rudd looked safe because he looked, as has been widely observed, a lot like Howard. Intensive focus on economic management where the Coalition has a clear lead in all polling will just serve to undermine this sense of feeling safe – irrespective of the substance of the discussion.
What Labor does NOT want this weekend is chat around the BBQs of marginal electorates where voters are indeed scratching to find the extra $40 or $50 a month along these lines:
“So Dad, is it really true that rates got up to 17 per cent the last time Labor was in?”
# 1 StanS Says: November 8th, 2007 at 5:52 am
So I wonder which core and non-core promises get included in the aggregate impression?
Parental leave and Grand-parental leave – from Howard and Costello – it’s a con! Have they explained how that one fits into SerfChoices, does it apply to all companies, what about casuals. Maybe for the employees of Macquaire Bank. Can it be negotiated away?
For crying out loud – these guys are desperate.
# 1 StanS Says: November 8th, 2007 at 5:52 am
Or is it the case with John Howard, that you’re not really a liar if you only lie 49% of the time?
This is not to suggest that any polls relied on, owned by and/or published by News Limited are necessarily dodgy, simply it is a matter of interpretation.
The psychological effect of having an indication of a runaway win to Labor this far from the polls encourages people, i.e. gives them “permission” if you like, to vote ALP.
What comes in to play is the atavistic phenomenon of the herd instinct. Human beings, like horses and wolves, are social animals where survival has always depended on belonging to a group. This is deeply ingrained in the primitive brain.
A significant percentage of people will vote on the perception of what other people will do.
This is why the News Ltd columnists such as Dennis Shanahan and the Poison Dwarf write absurd interpretations of the trend in a rearguard defence of Coalition seats – trying to save as many as possible so it will be easier next time to win back government. Why? News Ltd makes more money with a Coalition government in power.
Another slogan:
In order to get an honest government, we need a new government.
In order to get a government we can trust, we need a new government.
If interest rates do go higher, who do you trust to keep their promises?
Sir Henry 41
Quite right. I sometimes wonder at what point Shanahan and Bolt just come clean, resign their jobs, and take positions as full time campaign workers for Howard? I wonder if they even see themselves as journalists any more? Maybe they believe if a cause is worthwhile, it is worth deceiving people for.
I agree Flash [37]
Get back on to education, environment and “values”
Let the interest rate rise undercut the government on its own
28
People would no doubt draw attention to the part of the lyrics that says “Meet the new boss, same as the old boss”…
On interest rates:
It’s not the 17% interest rate line that Labor needs to counter, it’s the BS that scrapping workchoices will push up interest rates. Most people are willing to discount events that happened over 15 years ago, but the government’s scare on interest rates and Labor’s IR policy might fool some people.
Kevin Rudd’s line that interest rates have gone up every 15 weeks since the introduction of workchoices is the one he needs to hammer.
Bushfire Bill – keep it up, fantastic effort so far. Get out and get the blood pumping sometime today, celebrate the continuing decline of the rodent.
Xulon
Good point! I suppose Howard would liek Cat Stevens “Father and Son”. Its not time to make a change… He could do a duet with Costello for added irony.
Ross Gittins today:
Although Labor is hardly any better, Mr Howard has form when it comes to misleading the electorate about interest rates. Is it so gullible as to be conned two elections in a row?
This is surprisingly good from Annabelle Crabbe:
http://www.smh.com.au/news/opinion/the-day-two-cunning-adventurers-fell-into-their-own-big-heffalumptrap/2007/11/07/1194329317516.html
So what else do we put into this category???
“When I said:
*I wouldn’t push Workchoices further;
*carbon emissions would be cut back;
*I’d hold a referendum on Indigenous reconcilliation; or
*I’d hand over to Costello;
no-one believed me I because taking the totality of what I said everyone knew I was:
*an anti-union ideologue;
*a climate change skeptic;
*anti-Indigenous rights; and
*addicted to power.”
BRILLIANT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
To a large extent, people factored in an increase in interest rates over a week ago when the CPI went up. So the issue has been going for quite some time already. The ALP is playing to one of the coalitions strengths by turning it into an economic management issue.
They have to let go of the obvious temptation to keep hammering Howard about broken promises because everyone knows he is a liar anyway and many don’t really care.
I think they have to quickly get back to their core issues of health, education, environment etc, for the last few weeks of the campaign.
Deo I agree.
Ramp up the “response” type adds with reminders that Howard lies, but the positive messages at the end.
Rudd has to turn on “the light on the hill” type of speeches
also map out a clear concise vision for the waverers
ignore the rodent and his rodentcy- lets now move forward to fixing up the mess
Just a thought…
Sports watchers would be well aware of those over-marketed and over-priced memorabilia pieces that are flogged by the likes of Richie Benaud on Ch. 9. You know the ones: the framed picture of Shane Warne celebrating his 10,000th conquest, with smaller pictures and stats and graph boxes down the bottom next to Shane’s signature. Well, if the ALP gets up, will somebody be flogging a framed picture of Kev, arms aloft in victory? Included at the bottom could be a picture of a sad and sorry looking Rodent, next to a set of tables showing seats won and lost and the signature of Kev. I’d love one, but I imagine that they’d be pricey; I might just make my own.
Just a thought.
I agree:
Labor believes in economic strength, but we also believe in the importance of community, the importance not just of generating wealth, but in fostering a sense of security. That’s why we will pull apart Workchoices, because we believe that in good times wealth should be shared faired, and in bad times people people should be treated fairly.
Something like that…
Hmm…so we have an interest rate rise, as expected. Am I the only one concerned that Labor now has an even tougher fight on its hands as Howard and Costello apply the economic management blowtorch. There is no question that the rate rise proves that governments and politicians have only peripheral influence over interest rates. But Labor can’t hide from its record and it’s not good.
Has anyone read the Piping Shrike?
http://thepipingshrike.blogspot.com/
He offers fantastic insights into the campaign and well worth a read. I like the reference to “anti-politics”.
For my 2 cents, I reckon Labor’s best bet is to drop the interest rate issue altogether and move well away from the economy for the rest of the campaign. That is the coalition’s strong suit and arguably Labor’s weakest suit. Labor is getting beaten about the head by the Coalition on IR, unions and economic management and can’t really return fire with much credibility. Rudd should start getting back onto the issues he can speak with credibility about – climate change, health, education, Howard’s lies, fixing the broken federation etc.
Yeah, that worked brilliantly for Latham!!!
Arbie Jay #33
There is almost no chance Forrest will fall to Noel Brunning (the independent). His refusal to do a preference deal with Labor and his pro workchoices stance will kill him. He also refuses to door knock which is very interesting. Brunning with 15 to 20% of the vote mostly taken from and going back to the Libs. My prediction in Forrest is the Libs by around 3% over Labor.
Ahh yesssss…. but Latham was unfortunately in a campaign when rates were at record lows, not 11 year highs!
Just heard on ABC radio in Sydney: both Smirky and Rudd are addressing News Ltd editors today in Canberra.
I think that the point is you don’t run away from a fight or look scared of dealing with an issue – and in the wake of a rate rise that is where the debate is for now. You fight on that territory while that is where the attention is. And you keep fighting on all your strong points as well, because if attention swings back there you are laughing.
What is the ALP going to say in response to a question “Mr Swan, what do you think of this rate rise?”
“I think that climate change is a real concern”.
Of course not!
Re Deo at 52…
I launched into my spiel without reading those above me. I think Deo @ 52 said it all perfectly.
The rate rise is a non-issue. A few stragglers may drift over the Labor but it really just amplifies Labor’s shocking record on interest rates and economic management. What Rudd doesn’t need is another day of Howard and Costello hammering him over 17% interest rates and budget deficits. Not a good look. And sure to turn some waverers back to the dark side.
Time for more attack ads too.
Ashley @ 46
“Kevin Rudd’s line that interest rates have gone up every 15 weeks since the introduction of workchoices is the one he needs to hammer.”
Agreed, my not-very-political-but-labor-voting-girlfiend, jumped up when Kevin said that and just said, “Labor have to use that line.”
This is, to put it in the words of our magically disappearing Health Minister, bullsh*t.
Hang in there, BB, the third day is one of the toughest. If you can get through today you are well on the way to beating the dreaded fags.
You know you can do without for another 30 minutes – just keep doing that all day, and keep yourself occupied. If it gets too bad, fruit juces help to kill the ‘craving taste’, and a belt around the block on a pushie or a short jog will take your mind off it a bit.
Try and change your habitual ‘cigarette’ times – with a beer, or coffee, you know when. Avoid or try and change your normal routine then so that a fag is not part of it.
Be careful what you eat – it took two years for my body to get back to ‘normal’, but food will start tasting SO good it is very easy to get out of shape.
Still, round IS a shape ….. : )
Lots of luck – you have a lot of support here ….
Good point re Latham. But the public saw Latham as a union thug/loose cannon. Rudd doesn’t have that same scary outward appearance. But I agree, Labor can’t shirk the debate of the day.
Is there anything in simply confessing to making a hash of things in the past and vowing to turn over a new leaf, backed by nice statements of economic conservatism? I don’t see the point in continuing to pretend that Labor are great economic managers when the record is there for all to see. Much like Iemma’s “more to do, but heading in the right direction”. Face the music head on and give solemn undertakings to do better next time.
Bedtime stories for naughty Tories …. : )
http://www.smh.com.au/news/opinion/the-day-two-cunning-adventurers-fell-into-their-own-big-heffalumptrap/2007/11/07/1194329317516.html
“Adumbrates”
What the!
Tragic news for cricket tragics, this is the first time for years that the normal rain has returned to Brisbane and it is still raining lightly here. People can take umbrellas into the ground but under new crowd control rules are not allowed to use umbrellas if it rains. Howard’s thinking has trickled down to make cricket crowds one of the most over regulated meetings of people in the country.
Has anybody reminded Malcolm Turnbull to take his list of the other 24 places beside Bribie Island where Nuclear Power stations are going to be sited? The debate between Turnbull and Garrett today should be a cracker, not very often we get to see self made millionaires fight over environmental issues.
Garrett v Turnbull will be interesting. I wonder whether their gaffes will cancel each other out.
I fear Garrett will lose badly. To me, he is completely unconvincing when he is running lines he doesn’t believe in, like the Gunns pulp mill whereas Turnbull, for all his failings, has the gift of the political gab.
Ralph,
ON a federal level, what evidence, I mean, yes, from Whitlam of course they made mistakes, but that was 30 years ago, what you have the same opinion since then? What was true then, is not now…..
And come to think of it (ever the pessimist) just imagine if Garrett messed up badly. That would be the next big media “subject” after interest rates ie: Labor looking weak in an area that is supposed to be a key strength, the environment.
I’m not confident re Garrett either. In my opinion, he shouldn’t be environment minister in a Rudd government. I’d be giving him Arts and Sport – make him the minister for fun. It would also keep him out of the limelight and out of trouble. He also has no shortage of experience in the arts world, making him the most qualified arts minister the government could find.
labor needs to talk about the future , what policies, programs that over time will bring interest rates down, be honest about the future ,
let the liberals wallow in the past ,
rudd needs to talk about howard and costello voting against every wage rise for low income workers since they were elected in 96, another disgraceful lib record
The Skynews bulletins today are making a big fuss that the Newspoll for W.A. does not show Labor leading like it does in all other states. This tabloid television Howard Cheerleader is now obviously desperate to show any graphic which has Team Howard at parity with Team Labor. I guess the message is that W.A. is showing the true path for the rest of the benighted states to follow. No prizes for guessing that absolutely no mention was made that parity in W.A. still means a swing away from Howard on the 2004 W.A. result.
However, in the Skynews’ well balanced (strangely) “Agenda 07″ program at 8:30 a.m. with Helen ? as interviewer, Wayne Swan did have the opportunity to point out this W.A. swing toward Labor, although he also spouted the usual caveats about poll volatility. BTW, his overall performance was more assertive and solid than I’ve seen previously, and he’s now stressing the point that the recent rate rises pain is far worse due to much larger mortgages, thus making housing affordability tougher than its’ ever been for battlers and first-home buyers.
Ralph, the issue is not whether a record is there “for all to see” it is that some (such as yourself) have bought the lies peddled for 11 years by Howard and his parade of freaks. If you want an objective analysis of economic reform and management undertaken by the ALP have a listen to the most recent Boyer lectures by Ian Macfarlane:
http://www.abc.net.au/rn/boyerlectures/default.htm
It is easy to forget that Latham tried really hard to stick to his promsie to conduct a positive campaign and ignore the govt smears and a smarta_rse press looking for roadkill.
As much as we all say we hate negative campaigns they work where it counts.
If you’d like a refresher from that period that still has resonance today:
http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2004/07/09/1089000349258.html
Re Bird @ 73
I personally think Rudd would do a great job in government. It’s just the change that Australia is looking for. There is every bit of evidence that union influence would be at its lowest ever (despite being staked with union officials) and he’s not about to run up budget deficits if he can help it. I mean, he wants to get re-elected and he won’t do that if he runs around being reckless.
The real issue is the perception that Labor are poor economic managers. Howard and Costello have said it that often that more then 50% of Newspoll believe it. They have to address the perception that they can’t manage money, whether it is true or not.
I hope unemployment figures don’t show a drop to 4.1% from 4.2% today. We’ll never hear the end of it from the government, even though it has very little to do with them.
The state samples in Newspoll are equal, so the MoE for NSW in this poll is 4%. I believe that this is an outlier for NSW, and distorts the national average. The reason for this is that the NSW sample for each Newspoll is stretched almost 2-fold to get a national figure, as NSW has about 1/3 of the seats, but only about 1/5 of the poll samples. If the real NSW figure is still at 57-58, the actual national figure is around 55.
The Herald-Sun in Melbourne has an article on JASON WOOD (LIB, LA TROBE) about his complete 180 degree turn on the Liberal’s policy on nuclear power in Oz.
Maybe they read it here the other day.
It seems given the Newspoll figures Labor needs to talk about nothing at all for the next 2 weeks and just turn up. If the swing is a uniform 6%+ in SA and 7+ in QLD JWH is finished, even if he does get the swing down to 4% in VIC and NSW.
This question of changing the subject away from economic management is crucial for this reason:
We’re getting close to the pointy end of the campaign, and arguably, the interest rate rise is the very first time that generally uninterested voters have actually thought to themselves: “Hey, the reality of my day to day life is impacted by what these clowns are talking about. So what do I make of it all?”
That is the grave danger, I believe. That these people will for the first time really start paying attention – and the Coalition line about Labor’s poor record on interest rates and economic management generally will really start to bite.
BV @ 78
I acknowledge that Labor have been great economic reformers in the past. Indeed, we wouldn’t be where we are today without the courage of previous labor governments. And we need more of the courage in the future. I fully understand the level of spin that has gone on over the years to undermine the Labor economic cause. I am a Labor supporter and genuinely hope Rudd gets up on 24 Nov.
The problem, however, is that there is a perception in the community that Labor are not good economic managers. Marketing 101 says perception is reality and that is what Labor has to confront to win over people who are convinced by the lies peddled by the Libs.
Ralph,
But its annoying that people have very outdated views. Budget deficits are a normal part of running a country – its economics 101!! People have been brought up to think that deficits are bad and that getting into budget surplus is a sign of superior economic management – Labor, instead of educating people, as per usual bounce around to a neoliberal agenda. Frustrating!!
So, would you prefer a social democratic alternative? or a US style country?
For what it’s worth, I think Labor should make a fair degree of noise about interest rates, particularly targetting lower & middle income voters who are going to feel the pain of this latest rise the most. But they can’t afford to build the whole campaign around it. Labor is also vulnerable on this issue-but not so much because of Howard’s “17% under Keating” line, which I think has lost most of its potency. Labor’s problem is that it, like the Liberals, doesn’t have an answer to holding interest rates down. Improvements in education and faster broadband are going to halt inflation? Hogwash. That’s about as intelligent as Howard’s constant tax cuts, which are like pouring petrol on a fire-and which Rudd politically had to match. So run “interest rate rise every 15 weeks since Workchoices was introduced”, it’s a killer line, but keep going with the positive, new leadership stuff as well, and of course keep pushing Workchoices. Actually, I think Labor is running a very good, pragmatic, campaign-the only weakness is dud candidates in some seats, installed by factional deals or their spouses.
I think you shouldnt underestimate the potential for a swing in NSW too, there are some very strong locals who are first rate marginal seat campaigners in Craig Thompson in Dobell and Belinda Neal in Robertson.
Exactly, and experience from 2004 demonstrated that not confronting the issue means that you are effectively allowing the other side to suggest you agree with their scare campaign.
“Not talking about” the issue is simply not an option. You need to talk about it in a way which assists you – and by framing the debate as about “working families”, “costs of living” and “housing affordability” the ALP may have discovered a means of doing so.
But, if you really are an ALP supporter, spouting blantantly untrue lines such as “I don’t see the point in continuing to pretend that Labor are great economic managers when the record is there for all to see”, is simply unhelpful.
Satisfaction with Rudd is still very high, at 60%+, and he’s still the Preferred PM. I believe that implies that most people feel that, although Howard may be better, Rudd would do a reasonable job with the economy. You can compare with Latham, who was getting smashed as PPM at this time.
The interesting question is what happens if labor loses? Surely it’s too terrifying to think about. It would have to be disastrous. But perhaps it would present a genuine opportunity to reinvent the party. I would say that they’d have to look at severing the union ties and moving more towards a genuine centre-left social democrat party similar to those found in Scandinavia for instance.
I am not sure if someone raised it here or on another site. However, I think Labor needs to push the Micro-line they have been since Rudd took the leadership. Go hard against Howard’s Marco stuff, but bring it back to the kitchen table.
92 – Labor will lose and they must face the future as a party who will never win again.
Perhaps they should merge with greens
Workchoices would be “endorsed” by the electorate and gradually extended.
There would be another arch conservative judges appointed to the High Court during the next term.
There would be the potential for a wholesale sell off of public hospitals to private operators once they all have their own boards and the foundation of a US-style health system.
Education would be moved further towards user-pays.
And the ALP would be likely to move further to the right rather than the left.
Perhaps it would be a blessing in disguise if Labor lost this one.
The economic wheels are almost certain to come off in the next year or two so if Labor wins they will have to wear the blame, however much the attribute the problems to the previous administration.
Let the unpopular Costello take the reins in a potentially nasty squabble, then let him wear some economic mayhem. After that Labor could win on pretty much any terms it likes.
Labor will win and we will see Whitlam Govt MKII
It’s not about rates per se, it’s about trust. “Who do you trust?” Remember?
Surely Labor’s argument is simple:
“If it’s not his fault they’ve gone up because he can’t control them, he lied in 2004 when he said he could.
If he can control them but hasn’t, you can’t trust him on rates any more.
He says to control rates you need work choices, but rates have gone up since work choices has come in.
Howard/ Costello = higher rates and less pay and conditions under work choices”.
Work choices is poison for the government. Good luck to them if they try to say to people that you need work choices to keep your wages down to control your interest rates. In other words “You’ll be better off with rates because we will make you worse off with your wages”.
I can really see that selling well, can’t you?
ESJ – While I respect that you have come to terms with the Libs most likely losing, I had a very similar statement issued to me by another Liberal voting friend. I just don’t see it happening.
For the next 3 years (good economic times or bad) Rudd will be able to unravel the myth of the Howard Costello as godlike economic managers. Unless Rudd does something completely out of line with his control freak persona, he will bang on about this all the way until the next election.
Fascinating article ed (76). The same names, the same tactics, the same glaring hypocrisy. Only the dates have changed.
And of course the fact that the mud doesn’t stick so readily to Rudd.
71 Ralph
I can only hope that the Turnbull-Garrett environment debate does turn out to be a cancel out of gaffes, as you satirically suggested. Garrett will have to punch well above his weight to draw the bout with a person of Turnbull’s intelligence and toughening experiences whilst heading up the Republic Referendum campaign.
However, hard to imagine how this debate would be likely to change any votes. Younger to middle age voters will continue to back Garrett no matter how badly he stuffs up, but after today Rudd might be judicious to send him to wherever Team Howard hides its Ministers Kevin Andrews and Philip Ruddock.
Yes, Ralph, I know what you mean. Yes, they are the 2nd party of the Right and have been since neoliberalism came in …………its kind of depressing, but I am just hoping for some changes, and maybe in 30 years time when this ideology dies, they will be more in the centre/left
BY the way, I am in Sydney’s eastern suburbs, is anyone having an election party in inner west, city or east? I would love to come!!
Nope, it would be catastrophic if the ALP didn’t win this election, especially after all this consistently good polling and the decade in the wilderness. It would be the mother of all bloodbaths.
Right now is a perfect time for Rudd to outflank Howard on a strong Coalition policy area.
For instance, national security. Make a bold announcement beefing up coastal patrols up north. Something like that. Get Howard scrambling to “me too”. Change the subject. Now.
96 [Perhaps it would be a blessing in disguise if Labor lost this one.]
Dream on. There is no good reason for a divided rabble like the present Government to be re-elected.
Liberals to recognise gay relationships…not however while both partners are still alive…. there existence will only be legally acknowledged after the death of a partner. Sad and cruel.
Coalition have won the election.
Respect the result. Respect Howard
Sri Lanka won the toss and put Australia into bat. Ponting must be pretty happy I think
Ralph at 80
I think Mr Costello would strongly disagree with you.
“The Howard treasurership was not a success in terms of interest rates and inflation. He had not been a great reformer.”
At the end of Mr Howard’s treasurership, inflation was running at 11 per cent and bank interest rates for home loans were 12.5 per cent. Even Mr Costello challenges Mr Howard’s determination as a reformer and even his veracity in claiming to have attempted reform as treasurer.
Speaking of the Campbell inquiry’s recommendations for the deregulation of the financial sector under the prime ministership of Malcolm Fraser, he said: “He [Mr Howard] would say to you now, ‘Oh well, I was always in favour of it and Malcolm stopped it’.
“You know, the truth of the matter is if he had really wanted to push it he could have pushed it.”
Similarly, Mr Costello takes issue with Mr Howard’s record as a fiscally responsible treasurer. While Mr Howard has since said he threatened to resign in protest at Mr Fraser’s profligacy, Mr Costello questions this: “He was threatening resignation a long time after the event but there was no evidence at the time.”
I expect Garrett to hold his own and this will be good experience, as he is still wet behind the ears.
Turnbull is not far behind and he will have to perform, considering the government’s record on these issues.
I’m considering going to an election party in Adelaide. But not sure whether to go to the party or watch it at home on the tele with my feet up, some pizza and a few coldies. If you go to an election party and the result doesn’t turn out the way you want it to, it could end up being a wake!
Only if the Libs have control of the Senate. Over the life of the Whitlam government the senate reject more than 90 bills outright – compared to about 60 in total from Federation up to that point. Nobody can effectively govern in that environment.
I doubt this current crop of born-to-rule inbreds would try it again, but you never know.
What I will also say is that there’s a lot of people here seriously underestimating Peter Garrett. Tell me, who won this exchange?
I’d forgot about that biography. Why the hell isn’t the Costello line “The Howard treasurership was not a success in terms of interest rates and inflation. He had not been a great reformer.” Plasted on billboards, TV web , back of milk cartons?
It’s absolute gold. There are couple of campaign free kicks here for Rudd. Stop pussy fotting around. It’s not overly negative and gets to the heart of the mythology the Libs have spun on economic management
109 John Hunt is a Coward said: “Similarly, Mr Costello takes issue with Mr Howard’s record as a fiscally responsible treasurer.”
Good point, JHiaC, which is reinforce by the battle of the graphs between Howard and Costello yesterday.
Whereas Mr. Howard’s graph mentioned is cut discretely off on the left at the convenient year of 1983 so as not to reveal the soft porn of Mr. Howard’s 22% rates when Fraser’s Treasurer, Mr. Costello had an R-rated graph (might contain obscenities like a Recession and Higher Interest Rates) which pointedly did not bother to censor out the Fraser/Howard years. Could this be a subtle hint from Prince Peter that a re-elected Coalition might not be as totally harmonious as Mr. Howard wants to to believe?
Edward StJohn Says:
November 8th, 2007 at 10:41 am
Labor will win and we will see Whitlam Govt MKII
ESJ, a learned man such as you sure gets me worried when I read comments like the one above! I actually thought Hawke would have been closer to that mark but I was wrong. But for you to imply that “The Ruddster” is Whitlam MkII well now I’m going to check for ‘reds under the bed’. Fairdinkum you can do better than that ESJ!
This is the other line that Labor should be pushing. A vote for the Libs is an endorsement of Workchoices. You didn’t get to vote for it last time, so if you vote for it now they’ll think you like it.
Could be good strategy, Flash @ 104.
Could Rudd embrace some pseudo Hansonism to appeal to the battlers out there. Rather than labor fearing a wedge, they should launch their own Tampa.
What was wrong with Gough – he is a God.
Anyone know how the Nat’s campaign is going. I can see the polling results, which seem to be holding, but I was wondering if anybody has other info/views on their campaign.
I was looking forward to their increasing demise this election but that doesn’t seem to be occuring.
Paladin, that’s from way too long ago, and thus irrelevant.
111 [If you go to an election party and the result doesn’t turn out the way you want it to, it could end up being a wake!]
Even Howard’s handpicked cabinet doesn’t want him as leader. The one thing the Australian voters will not tolerate is public displays off party disunity. There will be a wake alright but not the from the side you were thinking of. Disunity is death. Just ask the Queensland tories.
I think Garrett is great when it comes to heart-felt passion, but a bit light on when it comes to reasoned logic. That’s why he struggles moving from activism, where he was so effective, into mainstream politics where he has to play a straight game.
I think Garrett v Turnbull will be similar to Costello v Swan. Garrett will be well-prepped and won’t offer up any gaffes, he’ll appear professional and he’ll stick to the party line. It’ll be a fairly neutral outcome with no knockout blows on either side.
Lord D @ 120. irrelevant??? I disagree. This is a comment from his deputy and PM aspirant. Labor didn’t say it, a commentator didn’t say it. Peter Costello said it. It’s gold and should be used.
Turnbull is a smart guy. He will bait Garrett; lead him in to a trap, I fear. Hope I’m wrong but just consider the disaster if a Garrett blooper led the TV news tonight.
ESJ-Suggesting Whitlam MK2 is the silliest thing youve psoted on here. Like Rudd is anywhere near the reformer Gough was. Good Grief-You are normally more astute than that. But if you are suggesting that an incoming ALP Government is about to inherit a an economy that is on the way down like it was in ‘72 and that the Tories have squandered good economic times there might be some truth in that.
Most likely unemployment will be down – with Christmas casuals, holidays, etc. Maybe it’s too early. On the other hand a blog over at the SMH had lots of people describing the bitter experience of Centrelink and finally needing to walk away.
As the Rats tax cuts are delivered as welfare for Liberals, many of them will be telling similar stories of Centrelink battles.
Queensland Labor uses ads focusing minds on the coalition infighting. With the coalition ads already doing the hard work of advertising at least 70% unity for Labor. Labor could exploit the factional splits in the Tories.
Good Lord, you’re describing him as the consummate politician!
ESJ is just yanking your chain to get a response.
Required reading by all.
Sheep too. Especially Comments.
http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/meganomics/index.php/theaustralian/comments/line_dancing_labors_way/P0/
Agree, the nightly news with Garrett running off at the mouth is the last thing labor needs right now. He needs to be very careful and stick to his script.
Hope I’m wrong Ralph but there is something about the guy that makes me extremely nervous. Maybe that old footage used in this week’s Coalition ad has fuelled my fears.
I agree: Rudd needs a nice wrap up couple of weeks, emphasizing positive vision, and let Howard make all the running on his confusing interest rate story, and his bizarro world workchoices equals high wages AND wage restraint nonsense.
Emphasises the its time factor, play it safe, not too negative, on the front foot with vision, wrap up the climate and education message nicely.
I suspect he’ll do exactly that.
ALP to romp in. Watching the Tories lose their marbles over the next fortnight will be a fun sideshow.
The sudden change in NSW seems to come from females in the 35-49 age bracket.
The previous big change in Victoria seems to have come from the over 50s.
Calling the election/tax cuts made the Victorian over 50s jump to Howard but not the NSW ones. A week or so later it appears calling the election/tax cuts made the 35-49 NSW females jump to Howard.
The precipetous changes in Vic and NSW appear disconnected in demographic and timing.
108 – we in england dont like cricket and regard it as an irrelevance!
LOL
I would encourage you to think of how EGW was perceived pre-1972. He was seen as a class traitor who would have fitted in better to the English Liberal Party rather than the ALP and remarkably enough as an economic conservative.
I think whilst there is a consensus that Rudd is a control freak there is also a wide divergence of views in the ALP on issues such as the role of unions, spending etc and a lot of ministers getting in for the first time in their fifties. Like Whitlam people getting into the ministry in their fifties after a long time out will be anxious to make their mark and spend, spend, spend. With a small majority too – anyone who is knifed or denied will make all sorts of noise and trouble so there will be a real reluctance to spend. Where there is a divergence in views you get lots of internal arguments and disputes.
If Labor doesnt get control of the Senate you can expect the Liberals to be ruthless in blocking bills – even to the point of voting with the Greens to block legislation.
Finally I think there is a real prospect of the economy tanking in 2009. Just in time for KR to wear the blame a la Whitlam. It will be interesting as to the level of control he will be able to exercise – for example does anyone think he will really be able to give Mike Kelly or that Bennelong women a ministry over the heads of people who have waited 15 years or so for a go?
Sorry should have said real reluctance to deny anyone
What amazes me is that Labor doesn’t make more of the Coalition’s duplicity on WorkChoices. On one hand, they boast that real wages are up. But in the next breath, they say that it’ll keep a lid on inflation and therefore interest rates. Which is it? How can it boost your wages more than Labor’s IR system but simultaneously prevent wage breakouts and inflation? Doesn’t make sense to me.
Have we confirmed that NLP have won the election?
Where is Will and Lord whatsitname?
LOL Labor
Geez, a couple of people buying into Malcolm Turnbull’s superficial glam.
He’s a smart person and can make nice pre-prepared wishy washy big picture speeches, but his off the cuff media performances suggest that he doesn’t have the ability at the moment to lead anybody into a “trap” in a debate.
Ralph,
Instead of a tribunal saying everybody gets 4% wage increase it means areas where an employer can afford it getting 10% and areas were the employer cant afford it getting less than 4%.
LOL labor = finished.
Liberal = 40 maj
ESJ, you are of course ignoring the fact that ALP IR policy has been since Keating built upon enterprise bargaining not central wage fixing.
141 – ESJ: which is also the ALP’s policy and has been since decentralised wage fixing and enterprise bargaining came in in 1993 or thereabouts.
How the media lets the PM get away with sprouting off that pattern bargaining will come back if Labor gets in is beyond me.
ave it 07 = tabitha
ave it 07 = sad, sad man.
I’m reposting a question and reply on the Meganomics Blog, because I thought it was particularly enlightening for those of us who are not economists.
Ave it 07, drunk on power and completely deluded like his IDOL JWH.
EStJ, the ALP needed (and got) a control freak. it’s got them where they are today, staring down the barrel of a major hammering of el rodente et al.
ESJ
Whitlam Govt MKII?
One could argue that a better analogy is Sir William McKell in NSW. He inherited a narrow pool of talent, as has Rudd. He saw that in order to win government, he had to win the rural vote. Rudd sees he must win and maintain the support of the middle class. McKell chose key candidates, with mainstream credentials, many not members of the ALP. So has Rudd.
This moderate, right-wing NSW Labor Party crafted by McKell held power for 24 years, and his legacy remains to this day.
As for the Left, there is nobody there today who can hold a candle to the persuasive passion of Jim Cairns, the intellect of Lionel Murphy, or the numbers ability of Tom Uren.
Times have changed, for sure.
Don’t feed the trolls boys and girls
I would like to see Tanner to debate Minchin that would be interesting. It seems a lot of the labor hacks on here dislike Tanner but to me he seems like a pretty straight shooter.
And with interest rates, what Howard/Costello are effectively saying is…
The economy is booming, so inflation is increasing, prices are going up. We (the coalition) want you to buy bigger houses, consume more stuff in the capitalist utopia we live in. We (the coalition) also understand that working families face higher living costs. But we’re also saying that it’s a scary economic world out there, so you need to tighten your belts and can’t expect to get regular pay increases to pay for the extra stuff that we think you should be able to go out and buy. So trust us to keep your wages down while we encourage you go to out there and buy more stuff which will continue to increase in price anyway. Yeah, it’s pretty bad out there. And by the way, don’t vote for labor because they’ll just make it all worse.
It’s quite a sell.
Chris, I think Tanner is one of the best.
Employement Rate up to 4.3%
This data is horrible for Howard. Superficially, it looks bad.
Underlying it’s actually very very strong and has caused interest rates to go up. A Dec rate rise is looking like a stronger possibility by the day! Worst of both worlds for Howard
Cricket has been on for an hour now (including pregame and current rain delay). With the rain, 9 has had plenty of time to run commercials. So far, no political ads at all for either side.
Chris @ 152.
I love Tanner. The biggest waste of talent on the Labor front bench, no doubt about it. Why he is not in the treasurer’s seat is truly beyond me. I think he’d make a fantastic treasurer. He’s a far better performer than Swan in every sense of the word. In fact, if we had Tanner fronting the talkback jocks and duelling Costello, I think Australia would feel a whole lot more comfortable about Labor running a steady ship.
Why will no one answer me?
Why has productivity gone backwards under workchoices?
Haahahahahahahaha!
Nobbled by statistical variation no doubt… probably hasn’t actually changed much at all.
But it’ll shut ‘em up. They would have been praying for a drop so that they could go on about how good they are at making jobs.
Tanner will never be treasurer for two reasons: (1) he is in the Left, and (2) his party will never win an election in his working life.
Tanner is non factional?
Yes, I really wanted Tanner to be treasurer too. He is smart and every time I have listened to him I have been impressed.
Tanner is from the left.
Ashley – that’s it exactly.
The RBA will look past the headline and raise rates – the populace won’t see past the uptick in unemployment.
Essentially unemployment has moved from 4.249 to 4.251 (really that small).
Its hardly surprising that the British tories are looking to John Howard as some sort of demigod. After all, the british conservative party is pretty much a talent free zone other than the odd-sounding yorkshire toff William Hague.
They even managed to lose my old Sheffield electorate of Sheffield Hallam to the lib dems. in 1997 (and havent won it back since) even though it has the highest average income of any electorate outside of the south east of England.
Because stripping pay and conditions from workers makes them less motivated, and less efficient.
Employement Rate up to 4.3%
I suspect that JWH will spin this rise so as to blame Labour for the increase, he is so predictable.
A girlfriend in Perth who lives in the Pearce electorate reported this morning that when she boarded the train to head into Perth for work she saw big “Howard Out” graffiti written all over at the train station. The train station is in a strongly Liberal part of Pearce. Reports from the front line for what it is worth
…….
Its amusing hearing opinion that labor should just turn the other cheek on interest rates or ‘apologise’ for previous economic management. This is exactly what they did so disasterously under Beazley and Latham. Beazley famously apologised for the high interest rates under Labor in the late 80s…along with Latham’s signed guarantee on interest rates, it was one of the most lame, pathetic moments in Labor history and the party is still trying to clean up the mess. Its the reason why Howard is still running this interest rate line. Its his only last line of attack and it needs to be blown out of the water.
Those lib interest rate adds that were all over the TV last night resonate with people and I can’t for the life of me understand why labor don’t throw one out to counter them. The ‘6 consecutive rises under howard’ ad is ok, but it just tells people what they know and doesnt address the lib ad which effectively gazumps it…Three main points could be made:
1 -22% rates under howard in the early 80s – keep saying the 22% figure as much as howard says 17% under labor…
2- Interest rates in oz at the moment at the top of the OECD average
3 – proportion in income going to service debt something like 3 times what it was in the 90s…
The 22% line under Howard not only obliterates the ‘history’ argument but it again shows Howard up to be a shyster. The problem with recent Labor history under Gartrell, Grey et al is that they seem to have lost much of their strategic ability and capacity to respond to campaign dynamics..The interest rate issue is an opportunity for Howard – its on his ground – the economy and fear…..everywhere else is Labor territory.
Certainly, since I discovered this site my efficiency has fallen through the floor.
marty — too true
They need to do a graph which shows that the long run trend in interst rates is down since it peaked under Fraser. Since then the trend has been down and down and down, no matter who’s in power.
Factions, smactions. Does it really matter whether Tanner’s left, right or something else. Surely it’s a case of best guy for the job. In fact, I think that’s why Rudd made a big deal about selecting his front bench on merit. All he has to do (assuming labor wins) is switch Swan and Tanner. His big 3 economic leadership team remains the same, just a bit of musical chairs – no broken promises there. And then he’s free to shunt Garrett to Arts & Sport, demote McLelland to something beyond foreign affairs and bring in people like Combet and Shorten.
The focus will shift off the economy for the last two weeks of the campaign, much as the government would like to keep it there.
Reason? Both parties still have major announcements on the environment, education and probably health. They have saved some of their most ‘impressive’ announcements for last, and I think they will capture most of the headlines for the next couple of weeks.
Labor is gaining in WA, Labor is gaining in WA, Labor is gaining in WA.
Is there anyway whatsoever that this can be a positive indicator for the Libs?
The reality is that although financial comfort levels for families attached to the resources boom (that Howard didn’t create anyway) are high, the quality of family life is being effected by the switch to fly in fly out two and three week stints. (mining companies used to establish regional communities instead)
The understanding workers are gaining that removing workchoices wont actually reduce wages, but may increase conditions (this message is pronounced in marginals where the ACTU campaign is heavily resourced) is more attractive to someone who doesn’t really “need” a wage increase compared to more time with the wife and kids.
Additionally, through the election campaign, WA voters are now seeing more of Kevin Rudd through nation media than the local conservative media has shown of him previously. An educated rural Queenslander is less of an “eastern stater” than the alternative/alternative PM Peter Costello anyday.
Although WA voters are their own brand, they certainly dont want to be the village idiots of Australia. If polling in other states is showing MASSIVE ALP support, WA people will at least have a closer look at why that is, before just writting it off as “Eastern States” mentality.
The Age website is giving me the …
Quoting Swan as saying that “he can’t gurantee rates won’t go up further” why don’t they ask the same question of Costello – he can’t gurantee it either.
The ALP gets shafted for telling the truth. They’re too ashamed and principled to lie as baltantly as the Coalition does.
158 [Why has productivity gone backwards under workchoices?]
The question really is, why has productivity gone backwards during the reign of the Howard regime? Labor can boast a good record of productivity growth as seen here. See from the first graph what happened when Howard got elected in 1996.
http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/Latestproducts/5204.0Main%20Features602006-07?opendocument&tabname=Summary&prodno=5204.0&issue=2006-07&num=&view=
Time to have a quick break and have a look at Possum’s site.
It’s interesting how the media like to spin these polls. “The Libs gain ground in Tasmanian marginals.’ When you read it the article says Labor is on track to win the 5 seats in Tas.
I agree, Sean @ 169.
Labor definitely needs more attack ads directly countering the Coalition’s ads about Labor’s past record. Surely the campaign team can pull something out. That sort of stuff certainly does resonate out there in the mortgage belt. Letting that sort of stuff go through to the keeper untouched is bordering on political suicide.
Ross Gittens in the SMH is far more reasonable.
http://www.smh.com.au/news/federal-election-2007-news/dont-believe-crocodile-tears/2007/11/07/1194329318917.html?page=fullpage#contentSwap1
Gerr
As i’ve said, if you want to read how workchoices actually effects the economy, read Issue 56 of the Journal of Australia Political Economy, available for free at http://www.jape.org.au
The liberals can pontificate all they like about WA, but the facts are if there is anything like a 6% swing (as shown in the newspoll WA data) on election day they can forget about winning anything at all in WA. In fact, chances are they would lose at least 2 seats with a 6% swing. 6% swing = zilch, zippo, bugger-all for the liberals.
Ralph, hasnt the ALP got those Howard 22% ads running already?
I dont watch commercial TV, so its a question. But Ive seen em on youtube etc. And weren’t people here saying the ALP was running interest rate ads yesterday?
yes, gary bruce, i noted the same thing. after i read the article, i had to recheck the headline, which seemed diametrically opposed to the content!
I don’t watch much commercial TV either. I have seen the SA version of the ads linking fed labor to state labor – absolutely despicable stuff. I just have to hope that people see through that sort of sh*t.
I have become a serious watcher of Sky News since the election has been called though – just can’t get myself away from it!
Kevin on a table talking about interest rates.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fU_P_iJNizg
176 Rates Analyst,
You are dead right… There seems to be a campaign by most of the MSM to put Labor through the ringer, whilst giving those stinking Libs free reign to do what ever they want. There is no doubt in my mind that the MSM wants to polls to narrow, as they can have more interesting stories to report, there for sales and rating will increase.
With Sky News reporting that there is parity in the Newspoll for the state of WA, they made it sound bad for Labor, well I was elated, as I believe that if in this conservative, redneck, pom-filled state, Labor can poll 50/50 from 2004’s 45/55, that means in other states the swing is gonna be huge.
Unemployment has gone up too. I bet the Rodent was looking for some hope from the new figures to spin over the rate rise.
Unemployment rate is up! 4.3 Yay!
187 – “on a table” – thought it was going to be footage of Scores, tbh!!!
Sorry, I do empathise with those looking for jobs for I can’t help celebrating.
ESJ
For a guy who’s meant to be ’smart’ you sure say some dumb things. Apparently a Rudd govt is looking a bit Whitlamesque for you – unions equals norm gallagher and wages break out, Labor equals union control and unrestrained spending. Its like we’re in a time warp. This is the sort of line of thinking that often gets a gig on the letters page of the terrorgraph.
Not sure what you were doing during the Hawke keating years but you’ll find that the check on inflationary wage pressures that Howard had so spectacularly ignited in the late 70s early 80s was achieved primarily through the union movements capacity to look at the broad national interest and link wages growth to productivity gains. It was Labor again who substantially deregulated the IR system and effectively abolished pattern bargaining.
Labor under Hawke Keating were far more economically conservative than the libs have been…..The libs under howard have essentially blown the proceeds of 12 years of growth and a resources boom on middle class welfare and pork….lazily plonking a meager one percent of GDP into surplus to keep the editorial writers of the OZ happy. Howards record as treasurer speaks for itself. Fiscal discipline only really arose during the Hawke Keating years, when, due to a global recession you had to work a lot harder to produce a surplus.
Yo ho
That link not work.
Let’s not forget who the chairman of fairfax is.. oh, that’s right, Ron Walker!
Rising Inflation and Unemployment. It all looks a bit like 1982.
#192 meant but I can’t help celebrating. Every little bit helps now. JWH and Costello are spinning madly turning the rate rise to a plus. SMH editorial today was very pro-JWH.
Linsay Voter – dont feel guilty.
Most of the jobs since serfchoices are crappy re-cycled jobs. Taken by some sucker who’s dropped half-a-life-times salary on getting a visa. Works in the bowels of a Sydney restaurant and needs to commute from a suburb no-ones ever heard of.
Not good seeing that ALP insider saying that Macquaire is a close run thing. I live in the seat (in Bathurst in fact) and Kerry Bartlett (liberal) has his face everywhere. On the other hand, most Bathurstians probably don’t know who the Labor candidate is.
I thought this might have meant that the internal polling was showing that the seat was going to go Labor by a big margin and hence the ALP was focused on other seats, but to hear that it is close is disturbing because the Labor campaign here seems to be low key at best.
By the way, any news on the crikey rumor re: tommorrows Tele?
Why is KR meeting with the news editors? is it related to another smear campaign?
Exactly what sean said (169). Can you foward that advice to Labor campaign headquarters? Seriously.
Anecdotal ‘evidence’ that I hope means SFA.
The cafe where I buy my coffee every morning is owned by a fairly typical small business owner, who would normally vote for Howard. 6 weeks ago he was telling me what a turd Howard is, and that we need someone new.
Now he’s telling me that Rudd is just as bad. When pressed he said that Labor would be disastrous for the country, and when pressed again said because they have no experience. While I went into overdrive with the obvious response that using that logic you would never change government, I was left with the distinct feeling that Labor’s attack lines are simply not cutting through to those not obsessed with the election like most of us on this site.
Left E
I watched some commercial TV last night. The Labor ad on rates is this one http://www.kevin07.com.au/myblog/your-thoughts-on-the-rate-rise.html
It doesn’t address the Lib add which essentially is a rehash of the one they used, to great effect in the last election showing interest rates under previous labor govts. There is certainly no Labor ad that I know of that talks about 22% under Howard in the 80s. It needs to be out there.
Labor should take up the Economy fight head on for the rest of the election and sow seeds of doubt into the electorate so they will question Howards bigger and bigger lies. That will be the final nail.
It’s interesting that with the absence of any poll suggesting a Howard win the only thing the cooalition supporters have to fall back on here are platitudes such as “Howard will win” or “Rudd will be another Whitlam”. Mind numbing isn’t it?
Sean @ 202, check the one I posted before. It was released 2 hours ago.
ND, Portlandbet has Coalition $4.60 in Macquarie, so if insiders from either camp know anything at all, it can only support those odds.
ESJ- Lets face it the ALP always has to do the heavy lifting to move this country forwrd. Always has, always will. Restructuring the Australian economy during the 80′, the Accord, leading the country thru WW2 adfter facing down the appeasers on the Tory side of politics, establishing the modern links with the USA. I could go on and on.
Labor governments are always marked harder not least by the Tory press and coming to power after 11 years will no doubt see some mistakes, maybe lots of mistakes like the 96 Howard Goverment. You can bet Shanners, Madam Lash, Piers Crackerman et al will have a field day.
I will commit a blood sacrifice however if the Tories win the popular vote in the election after this one like Beazley did in ‘98.
The ALP will become the natural party of Government for the 21st century.
A 0.1% rise in unemployment is statistically insignificant. It is essentially no movement.
Unemployment data is complied much like opinion polls, just with much much higher samples.
How about this one?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z1Qt_D2OU7k
Ditto Adrian @ 201.
That is exactly the fear I have too. People that were prepared to vote Labor have had the bejeesus frightened out of them by the Liberal fear campaign. And because Labor is slow to come out with a counter attack, people are taking it in and more of them are actually believing that Labor is a threat to the economy. You can easily see how this, if unchecked, can turn into The Narrowing (ref: Possum).
Oops I mean this one:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fU_P_iJNizg
ESJ
If Rudd leads Labor back from the wilderness he will have the authority to do whatever he likes and put whomever he likes into the ministry.
The analogy with Whitlam just doesn’t wash, old bean. While Labor lost in 1969, that election was seen as a Labor and Whitlam triumph, and Labor was fully expected to win in 1972, especially against an opponent, Billy McMahon, who was widely regarded as a laughing stock, even by his own side.
The contrast with today is palpable. Labor was the depths of despair after 2004, having been led to a terrible defeat by an unstable leader, Mark Latham. In desperation they turned to Kim Beazley, and talked optimistically about a “two term strategy”. When it became clear that under Beazley they weren’t going to achieve the first part of that strategy, some clawback this year, they turned in ultra desperation to Rudd.
To everyone’s surprise, Rudd has been the most effective federal opposition leader since Whitlam, but unlike Whitlam he has done it against a cunning and crafty and never to be underestimated opponent, Howard. And he looks like he is going to win, and win big, in an economic environment where people on the whole have never had it so good.
When it happens on November 24, it will be the most stunning achievement in Australian political history.
In these circumstances, Rudd will have unparelled authority, and he knows it, and he will use it. Already he has said he will over turn the ancient Labor tradition of having the caucus elect the ministry.
Of course, it is true that the world economy is looking very shaky, and it is Labor’s unfortunte destiny to come to office at a time of global economic bad times, as it did in the 1930s and 1970s. The difference this time however is that
the Reserve Bank, a very competent institution, will be able insulate the economy from global economic fall out, the China boom will go on and on, and the fundamentals of the economy are mostly in very good shape regardless including(giving credit where it is due to Howard and Costello) negligible levels of government debt.
Adrian and Ralph-relax. Start worrying when there is a plunge in the Tories odds in the betting agencies .
#168 – there’s still a faded ‘Menzies Out’ visible on the Malvern railway bridge in Melbourne if you know where to look.
210 Ralph – there is nothing in the polling that backs up your fear Ralph.
RGee
Thanks for directing me to that – the blood pressure has dropped significantly. Lets hope it gets a good run on the tv over the next few nights.
ND @ 199 – I live in the seat also (lower Blue Mountains). Hardly anything at all from Bartlett down here. Quite a few Debus signs, plenty of Your Rights @ Work signs. The only Bartlett signs I have seen have been defaced, one with devil horns, the other with red eyes. Gut feeling totally, but I feel Debus will romp it in here.
AEC and independent hopeful in bunfight.
http://abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/11/08/2085149.htm?section=justin
214 – until they re-built the railway bridge over Pendle Hill about 5 or 6 years ago there was a classic “Halt Holt” piece on it.
My efforts to have it heritage listed were unfortunately unsuccessful.
212 Spiros Says: November 8th, 2007 at 12:22 pm
Why do people keep on perpetuating this myth? The world economy isn’t looking shaky at all! It’s looking healthier than it has in 50 years. The US looks shaky, but because the world isn’t as reliant upon american consumer demand anymore, the rest of the world is looking fantastic.
20 years ago the savings crisis in the US would have cripled the world economy. In fact it DID cripple the world economy (the savings and load disasters of the mid-80’s). This time, because of the resilience of the market, and the independence of all of those central bankers, the rest of the market is washing out the problem.
There is nothing wrong with the world economy. Stop saying that there is.
I’m in Port Adelaide – one of the most safe Labor seats in the country. I may as well vote One Nation for all the good my vote will do.
Laurie tells it how it is on rates:
http://news.ninemsn.com.au/article.aspx?id=318542
Ralph you can vote for Labor with the very impressive candidate Mark Butler in Port Adelaide, who is an interesting chap to talk to you, if you have the chance.
How’s Garrett doing?
Turnbull speaking in debate.
abc,net.au/news
Opening statement by Turnbull nothing from Garrett yet
Ralph, vote Labor in the Senate.
I see Butler’s mug on the way to work each morning on one of the many advertising placards around the place. He certainly looks like a sharp and switched on chap.
The fact that people here are cheering on an increase in unemployment rate sickens me. How would you feel if unions rendered you unemployed?
Pi at 220 and Spiros at 212 are both right in their own way. The world economy is still comparatively healthy. It’s just that the engine of growth has changed from the US to the newly emerged China.
However, the ructions in the credit markets and the underlying meltdown in the US housing market, together with spiralling oil prices suggests the risks are building on the downside.
The Asian economies have done well in recent years by recycling their significant trade surpluses into US Treasuries. Asian savings underpinned US consumption, which in turn kept the Asian juggernaut chugging along.
If the US goes into recession, led by a highly indebted household sector, Asia will be exposed. And that will reflect the refusal of many countries in the region to switch from export-driven to domestic-driven growth in recent years.
Australia is but a cork on this ocean.
Ralph and Adrian – Scare campaigns always work to some degree for some voters for some of the time. The LNP have unleashed this tactic much earlier than they would have liked. They needed some traction with everything else failing to deliver. Now, with still two weeks before the media blackout it gives plenty of time for rebuttal and plenty of time for the Lib ads to look very stale and negative.
Madame Ann Ann,
Employers sack people, not unions.
0.1 is statistically irrelevant, but in a campaign carries weight for the forces of Good.
I’m halfway tempted to vote Nick X in the senate and preference Labor 2nd. If Mr X gets up, it’ll almost certainly be at the expense of a Liberal in SA – and that’s a good thing.
Madame Ann Ann: Your ridiculous post sickens me.
Since when have unions had ‘we cause workers to be sacked’ in their core doctrine?
Do you even know what a union is for?
@229 [The fact that people here are cheering on an increase in unemployment rate sickens me. How would you feel if unions rendered you unemployed?]
Well, Madame Ann Anne (aka Tabitha?), to quote Walter Duranty, ‘if you chop trees, chips must fall’
229 [The fact that people here are cheering on an increase in unemployment rate sickens me. How would you feel if unions rendered you unemployed?]
Work for a Tory pollie do you, MAA?
What happened to JWH’s 25 nuclear power plants? I thought he said he didn’t run from a fight? so if he gets re-elected then we will get the 25 nuclear power plants? to scared to mention them now, it might scare the voters.
I hope you’re right, Bryce @ 231. I certainly think the union scare campaign was a bit overblown and people are almost laughing at it. I do like the kitchen table ad from Labor though – I think that will cut through fairly well.
Anyone watching Garrett?
Garrett doing quite well.
Doing very well so far.
Early dispatches form Garrett – Turnbull
Garrett honed in on climate change direct and forcefull and ‘contemporary’ makes Turnbull speech seem very old fashioned and partisan.
Garrett, presenting and speaking very very well. Turnbull old fashioned and repeats boring government lines.
Garrett attacks sleep at wheel Howard gov. v. effective.
My tip – Strong win to Garrett. Garrett out of 10 – 9. Turnbull out of 10 – 6.
237 Brough is measuring up Bribie Island in case there is a Tory win. The other twenty four locations are secret.
Yeah…..he’s doing well. Its when the questions start coming that things will get trickier though.
A very strong opening by Garrett.
Comparison with amount spent on climate change and election advertising great point.
Still only early days. It’s Garrett we’re talking about here. Keep your fingers crossed for no gaffes or slips of the tongue.
229- the tiny tiny upward movement is not stat significant. its not becuase more people have been thrown out of work, the increase is due to more people looking for work. Some of us were just cheering the ‘bad’ news for the Rodent King because that sort of news does not provoke images of tired, huddled masses.
If you want to get really upset about something try the way that employment is measured in this country. If you have worked for 1 hour or more in the week the survey is taken you are counted as employed.
Brilliant Garret speech. 9/10.
Garretts first answer 9/10.
Turnbull rebutt 5/10
Garrett is looking and sounding like a politician.
http://www.theage.com.au/news/National/PM-wants-a-nation-of-opportunity/2007/11/08/1194329375337.html
“as if mining was somehow sub-par and not sufficiently knowledge-based for Mr Rudd’s sensibilities,” Mr Howard said.
Anti intellectualism John? How passe.
I went to see the Keating stage musical at the Seymour Centre last night. The audience seemed to relish the depiction of the “Alexander D” and “Howard” characters which mercilessly pilloried those real life political players.
@248 [If you want to get really upset about something try the way that employment is measured in this country. If you have worked for 1 hour or more in the week the survey is taken you are counted as employed.]
Absolutely. I cannot understand why this point isn’t hammered home by the ALP. What is the unemployment rate if you only count full time hours?
Howard said today “It’s about completing a great national project we have begun. That is completing the transition of Australia from a welfare state to an opportunity society’
Would this Rodent, like to explain to me, how his transition to a non-welfare state is going to occur, when people are now going to lose there house due to his inability to control inflation therefore interest rates, and also explain to me and the extra 0.1% of the population who are trying to find a job in the month of October, but can’t
What a lying piece of shite this Rodent is
To all fans of Cyrius work he go 2 new vids up on youtube!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8BCZF-wr6a8&sdig=1
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yxKjNos-UVA&sdig=1
Enjoy!!
So now it all comes down to whether the people of Australia are stupid enough to believe John Howard’s lies on interest rates again. If not, he and the liberals are heading for oblivion.
Garrett charismatic + dignified after Tony wright’s mishchievous question 8/10
Ralph, what does Nick X have to say on a range of issues? Where’s he coming from? I’m from NSW.
I’m always doubtful about independents as there is usually no policy history.
What does he have to say for himself on say, Iraq, Workchoices etc?
Garrett’s making turnbull look like a plodder…….all this gaff rubbish recently has obscured what a smart operator he is…
Two great roasting questions. Garrett has handled both better of the two. Very funny exchanges so far.
Transitioning away from a welfare state????? who the hell is he kidding? family benefits Part A and B, child care rebates, baby bonus, health insurance rebates, one off carer payments, one off pensioner payments, first home owners grant… etc etc…
This guy is outrageous!!!!
[253] I saw it a while back. I almost cried when he sang “Light on the Hill”.
Oh, how I pine for the days when politicians had real vision and a genuine desire to lead the nation and to make Australia a better place…
For all his faults, and whether you agree with all his views or not, Keating really did have a view of what he saw as a better Australia, which he sought to achieve. In those days, progress seemed inevitable.
None of the current mob even come close… Today, progress has to be fought for.
So far Garrett’s handling questions well. Deserves to be Environment Minister.
What a lot of negative Labor supporters you all are! It seems some of you are literally begging for a 5th Howard victory, so you can beat the crap out of Labor for the next 3 years. Instead of criticism, why not give Kevin Rudd some support?
Well said Sean (169)
I just can’t understand why the ALP is so reluctant to counter the interest rates issue. It should be a strength for them on your points.
I keep hearing the line, “at least they are not 17% as under labor”.
Sometimes they come back with the rejoinder about the 22% under Howard, but rarely.
Those responsible for economic management under the Hawke / Keating era are long gone, yet Howard is still there. So I don’t understand why the ALB find it hard to pin the 22% label onto him, yet are so passive about the 17% tagged onto Rudd when he wasn’t even in parliament at that time.
The Libs will be mad not to run hard on this for the remaining campaign as they don’t have much else. The News Limited papers and most of the TV stations will be quite happy to frame their coverage to the lib agenda. So the ALP had better get some backbone and start some more effective comebacks.
Maybe I am being alarmist as I have been so disappointed with ALP results over the last 11 years. Who knows. I am just frikkin tired of the ALP patting themselves on the back for running good campaigns.
To my mind the ALP’s campaign has been lacklustre. After the debate I thought Howard looked like a shell of a man, with no idea. Now he seems to be coming back as the only person who can handle us in these troubled times and keep interest rates down. I know its a all media bs, but I am not sure Joe sixpack does. I thought their interest rate ads were mediocre. They should mention Howard’s 22%. They should mention average OECD interest rates, and they should mention interest serviceability under the previous ALP government and now.
Turnbull first to snipe – mentions US bases and environment. Then says he hasn’t had to compromise at all (to laughter).
Sadly, Darn (257), the great Australian Voting Public has shown itself susceptible to a good scare campaign time and time again, and as usual that’s all the Govt has going for it. Howard never underestimates the gullibility of his fellow Australians (or do I mean overestimate? I always get confused – you know what I mean!).
The majority of Australians have very little knowledge of what is going on politically or economically, they only have impressions.
Ads dont have time to explain or be perfectly logical they only have to create the impression you want and, quickly with the simplest of messages.
WorkChoices threatens Australians
WorkChoices will hurt your family
WorkChoices, 19th century laws in the 21st century
Howard, economically asleep at the wheel, 11 years and counting.
Howard, wasting Australia’s future
Howard’s promises never go further than empty words
Howard, doesn’t understand interst rates
Howard, what secret plan has he this time?
and so on
oh, a tip for Bushfire Bill, if you get into one of those weird moments were you brain goes kinda fussy and time distorts and every minute seems like an eternity – that’s low blood sugar. Nicotine releases blood sugar from the fat reserves – one of the reasons smokers can go all day without eating, have a snack/fruit juice as quickly as possible but it’ll take around 15-20 minutes before it hits the brain and you’ll normalise.
It’ll take around 10-14 days for your bio-chemistry to normalise. Powerful stuff that nicotine. Also be careful of the caffeine intake – try to halve the coffee your drinking (if you’re a coffee drinker) – once you’ve given up nicotine it’s easy to od on caffeine and get the jitters.
Jumping at shadows a poor man’s tactic:
http://www.theage.com.au/news/opinion/jumping-at-shadows-a-poor-mans-tactic/2007/11/07/1194329315413.html
“The storm over Peter Garrett’s remarks is a sign of the Coalition’s desperation.”
“But a close inspection of his alleged transgressions reveals just one serious error of judgement: he gave a light-hearted reply to a wannabe shock jock who interrupted a private conversation in the Qantas chairman’s lounge.
As Ross Stevenson, a former colleague of Steve Price on 3AW, remarked on air on Monday: “Ninety-nine per cent of journalists you could make an off-the-cuff remark to, safe in the knowledge that they would treat it as a joke and that they would keep your confidence,” Stevenson said. “The one per cent of journalists that would do you in completely is represented by the following words: Steve Price.”
Anyone know when the Garrett- Turnbull thing is over? I get the impression we’re holding our collective breath that he won’t trip over. Good reports so far, thanks.
Malcom’s minders have told him that aggression is a good look….
Look Garrett is okay, Turnbull is the one with troubles, I’m getting kinda sick of the pessimism leading into every Labor/Liberal debate. The Labor team is a smart one – it’s the liberals who are in trouble. The only libs that have survived the last 12 years with Howard are emasculated individuals, no gumption left in the Liberals.
@255
I like your style Bazz
Turnbull always negative and attacking Garrett. Turnbull being asked about gay superannuation, not impressed with anything he said so far.
Garrett is looking sound as a bank. I reckon Faulkner has probably had him locked down for the last couple of days. Parrying Turnbull, and all over his facts and figures. Also coming across as much more personable than Turnbull to my mind, but nothing of great note from either side. Will be called a draw.
# 262
middle man
“Transitioning away from a welfare state????? who the hell is he kidding? family benefits Part A and B, child care rebates, baby bonus, health insurance rebates, one off carer payments, one off pensioner payments, first home owners grant… etc etc…”
So what is JWH saying now,? if re-elected then these and other welfare payments will be scrapped
ALP just gained two percent primary in WA- If that is really the case I think we should close the book on this election. If WA can turn at this stage of the campaign then all hope is lost for the blue bloods.
Hmm, If it’s Midland, then it’s part of Hasluck unless it’s on the Northern line ?
Any clues Julie ?
273 Love the clenched teeth of Turnbull during this debate. Looks like he knows there is just over two weeks before demotion.
Only saw bits of Garret and Turnball.
Did Turnball mention where the nuclear power plants are to go.
I think it would be good if Howard and Turnball advised Australians before hand.
I know Howard says that business will decide where they go, but I think Australians would like to know as they will really lower house values.
That may be OK, maybe the people would be able to buy their first house where the nuclear power stations are, they would be a lot lower priced than other houses. They wouldn’t have to live next to the power station all their life, they could seel it to another first home buyer and then buy their next house away from a power station.
I’ve heard that at least two are going and one in Boothby, there is even a picture of the liberal MP, Southcott, at the beach turning sand over in his hand, on his website.
But I think Howard needs to llok at some sort of compensation for those home owners whose values will drop when the power station is built next to them.
Jude @ 268
Downer continually reminds us that he never “underestimates the intelligence of the electorate.” This is a statement respecting the simple fact that no one likes to be told (or have it suggested on their behalf) that they’re misinformed or gullible or wilfully ignorant or disengaged (and hence easy targets for propaganda and fear campaigns). Whether or not it is a statement that represents the truth about voters and their capacity or willingness to use their brains to question the information they are fed by politicians and the MSM is another matter …
If I was Rudd I would turn Howards welfare to opportunity statement into a scare campaign.
Slash-And-Burnbull is sounding like an also ran!!!
This debate is following the campaign, tactics-wise. Garrett started positively, and even sort of reached out to Turnbull at the beginning defending him against an attack question. Turnbull went negative. Garrett shrugged it off. Now Garrett is confronting him more.
2gb about to talk to Penberthy re Rudd rumour (apparently).
Garrett sounds and has contemporary ideas, Turnbull full of old rhetoric,
At this stage
Garrett 8/10 Turnbull 6/10
Pancho @ 277 – Peter Garrett was up here in Moreton Tuesday night for a climate change meet’n'greet – spoke superbly on that occasion. He’s doing even better today
Burgey Says:
November 8th, 2007 at 1:18 pm
2gb about to talk to Penberthy re Rudd rumour (apparently).
Keep us up to date!!!! I don’t have access to a radio
Mr. Garrett has always done well in these set pieces, I remember not too long ago, he wiped the floor with Turnbull in a 7:30 Report debate… Peter is okay, better than okay.
Hi AM, i was responding to comment 255.
not a chance he’d scrap them!! its one of his main strategies. bash the dole bludgers while handing out more middle class welfare. It has been the major and most enduring of all Howard wedges.
Garrett doing a good job at rebutting Turnbull!
Rudd has got some good shadow ministers: Swan, Gillard, Roxson, Tanner, Smith.
Give Garrett a chance. His only crime was to make a joke with a well known hack radio shock jock with links to the Liberal Party.
Now Turnbull has the fist clenched to match the teeth.
2GB should be renamed Radio Howard: wall to wall anti-Labor propoganda all day from Alan Jones, Ray Hadley and the rest.
Slash-And-Burnbull looks like he’s going to need a jaw reconstruction with all that clenching and grimacing!!!
Frank,
She lives in Toodyay. I do not know what train station she visits in order to make the trip into Perth proper. From her statement, I would only assume that it is in Pearce. HOWEVER, I don’t know the local area obviously, I live in SW Sydney. I can’t assume that the train station is also in Pearce. But living in Toodyay, she would (like any of us would) presumably travel from the station nearest to her. htth
Team Rodent know Garrett is good – that’s why they go so hard on him.
Can one of you clever bunnies remind me what was the rule (and who’s name did it have) that when 2/3 indicators (unemployment, inflation and something else) are rising governments change?
Sorry for my appalling memory
Ahh, so she takes the AvonLink into Midland, which connects with a normal service into Perth, which explains why she gets on at Toodyay, which is indeed LIbs/National heartland as I think Max Trenordan is the local member.
Turnbull summary speech…economy economy economy….
Stark differences in the closing. Garrett positive and forward-looking, Turnbull claiming a need to be strong on the environment. Saying ‘tough’ a lot.
I don’t wanna get ahead of myself, there is afterall, still an election to win… but should Labor win, we’ll be looking at the most talented Cabinet since Hawkie’s first. That’s my impression of the people in the Labor team, they’re real good, smart and committed ppl.
It’s the Liberal’s who have the lightweights… this just hasn’t been revealed over the last 12 years due to the compliant and complacent media. Hopefully, these ministers don’t all lose their seats, if all the Lib ministers are gone… who’ll be there to plot, scheme, background, backstab… nah, please let enough Liberal ministers keep their seats!
is there a worm rating the Garret vs Turnbull?
i’ve been listening on news radio – garrett is good and turnbull sounds boring, not that i’m biased or anything.
i was nervous about garrett saying something stupid but he’s been most excellent…
HH @ 296, they’re preaching to the converted.
#Xamiam @ #300
It called the Sawford Formula….link here….
http://www.ozpolitics.info/guide/elections/fed2007/the-sawford-formula/
I think this is what you are looking for.
Garrett focused on Climate change and won Turnbull tactically was ahead cause he mentioned water.
Turnbull had some tactical success, but it was a polished Garrett strategic win, and one that will resonate with Greens and the majority who have recently indicated how big the Clim Change issue is.
Garrett
8
Turnbull
6.5
Changing the subject, from the gaffe-masters Turnbull and Garret, Labor now has the opportunity to hammer home to message that Howard has given us the trifecta: rising inflattion, rising unemployment and rising interst rates.
We have a contender for cheapest promise of the campaign – it was reported in today’s Financial Review that Mal Brough had promised, if re-elected, to have a new post box installed at Sandstone Point on Bribie Island.
Slash-And-Burnbull’s prescription for combatting climate change: try and trick and bully other countries into giving Australia soft targets!!!
BRILLIANT!!!!!!
Thx Sondeo – that is the very one
Garrett carried himself very well I thought and he’ll only improve with the experience.
Garrett 10/10 and Turnbull 8/10. Turnbull gets marked down for defensive answers and his negative comments about Labor and Peter taking a higher priority than his positive answers (of which he had some). But Peter pointed out, rightly so, in his conclusion that a government of climate change skeptics can not be counted on to deliver honest change going forward.
Bob Brown said Peter had the edge
:)
Best debate yet
301 Frank,
Ok, so now we have front line reports of Lib/National heartland changing their tune
….. thanks for working with me to sort that one out, if the locals are writing that sort of graffiti at a train station, it certainly means more in a Lib/National seat 
…..
Spiros at 310,
I wonder whether the increase in unemployment is related to expectations of an interest rate rise. While employment is up, the increase in unemployment means an increase in participation rate – possibly due to previously stay at home mums and dads looking for some extra money. Pure speculation of course.
As some here have already said, ALP campaign ads need to flag the 22% rates when Howard was treasurer.
Their current interest rate ads are not countering the Libs’ withering attack successfully. It’s like listening to the first speaker on a high school debating team get killed by the rebuttal. He was a good first speaker, but he’s suddenly irrelevant, because everyone’s got the rebuttal in their mind now.
That’s why they need a second ad to counter the Lib’s deceit. It can be done very simply: rates are going up and up and up under Howard. How high could they go? Try 22% high. The highest of any government in modern Australian political history etc etc
Good (on-air) quote from Ross Stevenson last Monday:
“Ninety-nine per cent of journalists you could make an off-the-cuff remark to, safe in the knowledge that they would treat it as a joke and that they would keep your confidence … The one per cent of journalists that would do you in completely is represented by the following words: Steve Price.”
305 Frank,
No. No worm, I think that the worm only shows up for major debates and it seems to be only at those in which Channel 9 is also broadcasting. Anyone know if 9 has a copyright over the little guy?
……
does anyone have further info on the penberthy i/view on 2GB?
Unemployment rises, but PM warns it would be dire under Labor:
http://www.livenews.com.au/Articles/2007/11/08/Unemployment_rises_for_the_first_time_since_February
As I said in my earlier post JWH is predictable he has twisted the 4.3% unemployment rate against Labour.
It is time for Labor to go for the knockout punch on Howard enough is enough.
Burgey Says:
November 8th, 2007 at 1:18 pm
2gb about to talk to Penberthy re Rudd rumour (apparently).
Any further news on this?
Nothing yet form Penberthy. And I’ve now had to listen to 20 minutes of 2gb malarkey (sp.?)
#287 Burgey do you know what time? Just tuned into 2GB on-line, not sure how long I can force myself to listen to that channel.
Excellent ‘debate’, noted for it’s respectfulness for each other and putting forward their respective policy positions forcefully and coherently.
If Turnbull takes the chance to rebuild a defeated Liberal party it will be an interesting political scene in years to come.
They need some nice neat graphs like the ones Howard and Costello had ready to trot out yesterday, except starting earlier with the Howard-as-Treasurer years. Also graphs showing interest rates not just in isolation but as an increasing proportion of household income.
thank you Julie @ 320
Mr. Turnbull won’t be _given_ the chance to rebuild the Liberal Party, he’s more hated by his own than by Labor.
322 [But the Prime Minister has warned more Australians would be on the dole queue if Labor wins power.]
I think he means Liberal Party staffers. They have been warned by Howard, best get down to centrelink before the rush sets in.
yes, lindsay voter, i’ve forced myself to tune in. don’t know how long i’ll be able to cope with it. it sounds so….alien.
They are moving onto Stage 2 and plastering Hockey’s office this weekend
:)
*****
Dear friends,
Last week a whopping 20,000 of you told the Government where you stand on WorkChoices – thank you!
We can now proceed with the second stage of our campaign! This Friday we’ll be in North Sydney to plaster IR Minister Joe Hockey’s office in our massive ‘Know Where We Stand’ post-it notes – and you are invited – but before the weekend’s out we want to be sure we can proceed to stage 3.
Can you help us get to 30,000 post-it notes by telling your friends and colleagues with this link – or by forwarding them the email below?
http://www.getup.org.au/campaign/KnowWhereIStand&id=199
Join us this Friday 9 November, at 12.30 in Sydney at Mr Hockey’s office on the corner of Myrtle St and Pacific Hwy, Crows Nest – or in several electorates around the nation on Saturday, 10 November. Click here for details
Only two weeks out from the federal election, these politicians need to know in no uncertain times where we stand on unfair workplace laws. Saturday is the second anniversary of the laws’ introduction into the Senate, so we’d love to see you there telling those responsible we don’t want it to turn three.
If you’re new to GetUp you’ve joined over 200,000 fellow Australians working towards a better future on a range of issues of national importance, including protecting our rights at work. Welcome!
The GetUp team
P.S: Read about and watch the stories of real people affected by the Howard Government’s workplace laws here
Hi,
I’ve just joined over 20,000 Australians sending our politicians a personalised “Know Where I Stand” post-it note for WorkChoices’ 2nd birthday! If we reach 30,000, we are going to stick a giant post-it note at every polling booth in Joe Hockey’s electorate on election day November 24. Join us by putting your name to a post-it note here. It only takes a second:
http://www.getup.org.au/campaign/KnowWhereIStand
Right now our politicians are all facing the sack – at the hands of their bosses; us the voters. After this year’s taxpayer-funded avalanche of post-it notes telling you to know where you stand, you might want a chance to tell our politicians where you actually do stand. Tell them you want a fair future for Australia that protects hard-won rights and job security. It’s simple just click here:
http://www.getup.org.au/campaign/KnowWhereIStand
Thanks!
I meant “interest payments” not “rates” @ 327. Sorry.
Someone mentioned that Labor supporters seem overly pessimistic, even in the face of strong polls and what appears to be a likely victory coming up. But over the last 11 years, Labor supports have watched election after election slip away through a combination of poor policies, poor campaigning and strategic miscalculations against a cunning rodent. It’s very hard to escape the thought that it could be happening again.
To use Rudd’s marathon analogy, the ALP is well in front with the finishing line in sight. But a hardened veteran is breathing down his neck threatening to launch a challenge for the title. The problem is that it’s been so long since the ALP has won a race that it’s almost as if they’ve forgotten how to finish the race off. They seem almost afraid to try anything for fear it might be the wrong move and the Rodent comes rushing past and . It reminds me very much of the English cricket team in the Ashes last year – continually finding a way to lose from a position of strength.
That would make even the most hardened ALP supporter wonder whether it was going to go the way of the dogs again.
Check out the Climate Change Institute’s poll on attitudes to CC in marginal electorates:
http://www.climateinstitute.org.au//index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=116&Itemid=1
Why isn’t labor banging this can harder? (and doesn’t it show what a stuff-up Garrett and Rudd made of the issue last week)
Ed
I totally agree.
If these two rise to leadership of their respective parties in the future, we will be all better off for this.
329 Many of those who hate Turnbull look like they will lose. There is a new dynamic starting to show itself. Also there are many Liberal wets looking for a more comfortable home.
Not sure what time. Someone had told me it would be on at 1.20pm. Nothing doing.
Portland betting odds on Bowman:
COALITON 1.85
ALP 1.85
Isn’t it time the MSM started paying attention to this seat?
“If Turnbull takes the chance to rebuild a defeated Liberal party it will be an interesting political scene in years to come.”
Wentworthian voters might make that a very difficult proposition indeed. I’d personally like to see either Gary Hardgrave, Andrew Laming or Ross Vasta have a crack at rebuilding the party. No backward-thinking mediocrity amongst that mob.
It’s not so much pessimism about the campaign, and indeed there is a need for great wariness regarding Mr. Howard. Beyond this though, the team Labor has assembled for its front bench is superior in intellect and quality to the Liberal front bench, this group of ppl wiill remain superior even if Labor lose the election. The Liberal front bench is a wasteland – there is nothing to fear in debates.
Howard wrongfooted.
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/news/national/unemployment-numbers-wrongfoot-pm/2007/11/08/1194329376026.html
Rudd on 702 this morning said ‘get your skates on, next couple of weeks we’ve got a lot coming your way’ (I’m paraphrasing). So let’s hope he can round off the campaign (which PG aside has been pretty solid thus far) with some good parting blows.
As for NSW, let’s give discredit where it’s due: Iemma is a clown. Much of the local hustings talk here has been to point the finger at the state government as it lurches from one embarrassment to another. If we’d had a Beattie, maybe local polling would be a different story.
Turnbull’s my local member. I’ll certainly be voting Labor, but I must give Turnbull his credit. He is a very good local member – he even went to the trouble of ringing me and speaking to me for 40 minutes about the whole David Hicks thing some months ago. Admittedly, my letters must have seemed a bit unrelenting.
A lot of what he said was very interesting – and it was obvious why he was reluctant to put his views in a letter to me. The phone was safe, and off the record.
I hope he loses his seat, but then wins next time and becomes opposition leader
2GB – up next apparently (after more ads).
David pemberthy next on 2GB!
[338] Maybe after Rudd’s meeting with News Limited’s editors today, the interview about the rumours was cancelled?
Dave55 @317
The increase in unemployment is of no real consequence, but it is the optics that matter in an election campaign.
Labor should say, again and again, that the economy has peaked under Howard and Costello; inflation, unemployment and interest rates have either stalled or are getting worse; these guys have run their race; and its time for New Leadership to take the country forward, blah, blah, blah.
ok lindsay, keep us up to date … hope he wasn’t lying through his teeth to Crikey yesterday …..
“[If you want to get really upset about something try the way that employment is measured in this country. If you have worked for 1 hour or more in the week the survey is taken you are counted as employed.]
Absolutely. I cannot understand why this point isn’t hammered home by the ALP. What is the unemployment rate if you only count full time hours?”
But of course they won’t, because Labor will keep the same unemployment-counting system. If they changed it, unemployment would instantly rise under Labor. We’re stuck with this stupid system, that will always downplay the real level of unemployment.
340 I agree they can be included in the new look Liberals. As much as this election is about Howard it should also be about having a forward looking modern government and an opposition that can promote viable alternatives.
Even if Turnbull loses Wentworth he will pop up somewhere else and very quickly.
DOCS Bashing on Radio Gloria
Ralph at 221:
Try living in Kennedy. I may as draw a flower on my ballot paper, and turn it into a paper plane.
Rumor now on…
michael, i’ve always had the feeling that turnbull’s way too intelligent to be in the liberal party.
Penberthy just hosed out the Rudd rumour. Nothing to it.
He said he saw Rudd this morning and asked him, and “Rudd said he was hoping I could tell him”.
Phew!!
Yeah, everyone ‘not of the Liberals’ might like Mr. Turnbull, no problem there but the Liberals themselves don’t like Turnbull. And sure, some internal anti-Turnbull’s might be leaving Parliament but some anti-Turnbulls are coming in – Mr. Hawke for instance, the evangelical right of the Liberals are cashed up, powerful and spoiling for a fight! All power to them!
If Turnbull gets back in and I think he will, if it is opposition he will have a big chance of becoming leader. Costello will be associated with defeat and the smirk will look goofy not arrogant when he is out of power. Remember Rudd was seen as marginal chance just a month or so before he won the leadership.
One thing you can say about Rudd is that he had the guts and timing to go to his locker and get his Gun. Turnbull might to in a month or so get his GUNN to make a pun
It can’t be anything much… it’s almost time for 2pm news
Kevin Rudd told David pemberthy that he has no skeletons in his cupboard. Basically DP said there’s nothing to the rumour.
penberthy says there’s nothing at all in it.
And now Penberthy giving it to Price for dobbing Garrett in for what was obviously a joke!!!
Pure gold. Alan will not be pleased!!!
Pemberthy states again there is no rumor/story.
Also attacks Steve Price (at 2UE, so helping 2GB) for verbaling Garrett over “the change it all” ‘gaffe’.
It’s the pro-Labor show!!!
Last time something strange was happening in Victoria.
This time it is NSW!
Hawke is the devil (Alex Hawke, that is)
Pemberthy sounded almost human. But we weren’t fooled.
Penberthy says “Crikey rarely getthings right.”
I think any Labor supporter on here would be lying if they said they didn’t feel a little nervous about the next couple of weeks. Knowing how Australians generally fell for Howard’s deception over interest rates in the last election, seeing it all come up again is unnerving. Will Australians fall for it again, believing once more that interest rates would skyrocket if Labor won government? News Ltd seem to want everyone to believe this…
But, I wonder how much of the government’s vote last time really came down to their interest rate scare. It seems that the vast majority of people believe that governments don’t have a lot of control over interest rates (according to Newspoll).
Much of the vote probably came down to personality. A lot of people simply didn’t like Latham. They thought that he wasn’t right for the job of PM. I know several people today who are passionate about a change of government but who didn’t like Latham last time around and voted against him, either for Howard or some other party.
At any rate, I do agree that Rudd needs to get a little more cunning from this point on. I don’t think he necessarily has to counter every scare campaign against him with something of equal intensity. But I do think he needs to start shining. He has got to start talking up the vision-thing. Howard would love nothing more than to talk about interest rates all the way up to election day – he has nothing much else to talk about – but Rudd has to take control of the agenda. He has set it for much of the year. Howard has been the follower. And he needs to get back to doing this.
Rudd a few months ago had a beer or two with David Pemberthy and other Daily Telegraph journos. The Telegraph in Sydney is going to endorse a Rudd Labor Govt shortly.
Hmm, and no Tips & Rumours in Today’s Crikey either……..
Bryce at 259
Mr X is anti-Workchoices, but I don’t think has made a stance on Iraq. His policy platforms in South Australia have generally revolved around cutting political perks and decreasing pokie numbers. His main policies for this election seem to be getting Workchoices wound back, influencing pokie numbers and fighting for SA on water policy. Small target stuff really. Since he’s been in SA Parliament for quite a while now, he has got a fair bit of policy history about, and a fair amount of respect for actually sticking to his principles.
He comes across as a genuinely likeable guy, and knows how to use a good gimmick for votes. At the last election, the major parties in South Australia tried to squeeze him out on preferencing, and a lot of the publicity derived from that probably helped to give him a large primary vote. Even though I disagree with some of his policies, that he actually sticks to them is something I respect him for.
I feel for Ralph, I’d thought for the last year that I’d moved into Port Adelaide and my vote was not going to count, but it turns out that I just scraped into Hindmarsh, where at least the seat is marginal.
HH – reallly? I thought the telegraph was anti-labor?
Bloody Wall St down 3ish %. All the stars a aligning for Howard to scare everyone about the economy. I am expecting further poll narrowing as a result. I have a feeling the little tird will scrape back in…
355 Noone is saying his task wouldn’t be fraught with frustration and even take a while to achieve but someone has to achieve it for the sake of the country. Extremists both left and right are being weeded out slowly, just far too slowly from the far right. This election may be a catalyst.
God – all the assumptions you have to make to write that sentence!!!
Yeah, Mr. Hawke will swing in behind Mr. Abbot for a couple of years… that’s where the power will be…
If Mr. Turnbull loses Wentworth… he won’t be back. (I’d like to use the souffle not rising twice line… but that _would_ be unfair to Turnbull – he’s not a souffle… but even a re-heated steak doesn’t taste so good (okay, okay- I’m no Keating!! : ))
So I was playing with Anthony Green’s election calculator, and it proves that if the QLD and SA swing alone is replicated the ALP will win… Check this out.
http://www.abc.net.au/elections/federal/2007/calculator/?swing=state&national=5.7&nsw=0&vic=0&qld=11.1&wa=0&sa=12.4&tas=0&act=0&nt=0&retiringfactor=1.5
I’ve just cleared a bunch of comments from moderation.
If anybody saw the front page of the Telegraph you would know that it was terrible for Howard. Big headline, criticising Howard for rise in rates.
365 Noocat,
That is the million dollar question, isn’t it? How much of the Coalition’s vote/majority in the last election was merely the “anti-Latham” vote as opposed to the “pro coalition” vote? I think that there was much more of the anti-Latham vote out there than Howard and company would like to believe. They want to assume that the millions who voted for them would readily do so again.
NOT ………
Margins of error are heaps higher for state or even seat swings. With a sample of 600, MOE is about +/- 4, so a poll of 56-44 will be in the range of 52-58 vs 48-42. The MOE for a poll of 1700 is approx 2, so look at the overall figure for the poll. But if you have 3x 600 sample polls, and they show the same thing, AND there is no reason why they should be different, then take the average and assume that it is really a 1800 person poll with MOE =2.
Also remember that 1 in every 20 polls will be outside MOE. If we get 40 polls of all types during the campaign, at least a couple, and on average 2, will be outside this MOE. No way of knowing for sure, but we can guess by looking at polls which buck the trend.
By a stats graduate.
Note to self: must not get worked up ever again over Crikey tips and rumours. Bloody Crikey!
Spiros,
I don’t disagree; rather it was more a comment on the potential social impacts of an interest rate rise and it’s effect on participation rather than concern about unemployment increasing. It would be interesting to see if there was any research on the reasons for people returning to the job market.
My own view is that the coalition has done SFA on economic management and instead cruised along on the macro reforms introduced under Hawke and Keating. Howard and Costello’s comments about WC is that is has very little to do with improvements in the job market. The lack of investment in education etc is going to come back an haunt the Coalition (hopefully this election!!).
HH @ 369,
If that happens, it will be HUGE here in Sydney as heaps of the Liberals here read only the DT and not much else …….
The Howard apologists denial of 22% home mortgage rates under Howard is typical of the way they weasel out of things on technicalities. Yes official owner occupied rates were pegged at 12 or 13 % but you had to wait years to get a loan at that rate as the banks rationed what would have been loss making loans, the cost of money was in excess of 20%. If you needed to put a roof over your head as a matter of urgency you had to get a commercial loan which was at 22%. Labor need to get someone who paid 22% for an owner occupied home in 82 in a commercial calling Howard tricky for not fessing up to that rate on his watch.
More importantly interest rates then were directly related to government settings as in the highly regulated banking system the supply and cost of money was controlled by treasurer,John Winston Howard
Agreed. Their headline today was “Not as sorry as we are”… in reference to Howard saying sorry about rate rise.
Noone reads the editorial recommendations. Except weirdos like us
Doog @ 371. From all reports, Hindmarsh is set to swing pretty big.
Turnball said nothing about the nuclear power stations, then?
That is disappointing, although Howard said they are 10-15 years away, it does take about ten years to build one.
We could see the sites identified as early as late next year to start the process.
I think Mr Howard should offer compensation to home owners of about $150,000 like he did to the hobby farmers. The house values are going to drop by at least $100,000 when it is picked as being next to a power station, the other $50,000 can help with moving costs.
Howard should put forward this compensation package as an election promise, it will ease the worry of a lot of people about house values decreasing.
Does anyone get the impression the Terror might endorse Rudd this time around?
Julie, I guess we’ll soon see when the next string of polls come out.
If the interest rate scare stuff really does bite, then it will have to show up quickly in the polls. The government’s television ads have been hammering away since yesterday and will probably continue for a while longer.
HH
I tend to endorse anyone I have a beer with too…I read the tele today and was surprised at the anti howard stance on rates. I think you might be right.
Hey all, back from a lovely relaxing holiday. I guess I missed something about Crikey rumours, can someone please fill me in?
I have noticed a distinct shift in the DT’s editorial tone in the past week. The switch is on. CM will endorse as well. Probably the advertiser… the Oz…. wheellllllll…….. i can’t be so sure about that freak show.
So there’s no rumour? Whew, that’s a relief!
Sam K @ 373, surely it’s still better than if the picture were rosy? Then Howard would really have an argument against changing government. It’s just his tactic to walk both sides of the street, whether it’s the sunny side or the tsunami side.
Howard’s admission he is (and will continue if re-elected) dismantling the welfare state gets a run in the Australian:
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22723567-601,00.html
Samuel K Says:
November 8th, 2007 at 2:03 pm
Bloody Wall St down 3ish %
3% swing in the market is really not that much these days. A couple of months ago the dow made up a 300 hundred day intra fall in around 1 hour just before the close so a lot of copy had to be rewritten. The Dow could just as easliy be up 4 percent tomorrow.
But for what it is worth over the next 6 months I would short the market in a big way
G’day All
What are the rumors about Rudd?
check this out! Howard says sorry is not an apology!!
http://www.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/story/0,22049,22723941-5001028,00.html
I don’t think the Herald Sun here in Melbourne will endorse a Labor government. Apart from a couple of exceptions, pro-Liberal spin has been alive and well and continues right up to today. The Age, however, will endorse a Labor government, I am sure of that.
Noocat @ 365,
Labor camp nervous!? yYes, may be so! Who wouldn’t?! Who dare to show the sign of hubris?
On the other camp though. the Libs would die for the situation be reversed: in favour from both polls and punters.
Who is more nervous now?
JOM, Rumor is that Rudd will be voted in as PM in just over two weeks time.
Well you can forget The West endorsing the ALP – Hell would have to freeze over befor Paul Armstrong endorses the ALP ANYWHERE.
Paul Murray was today rabbiting on about How Howard can benefit from the Rates Rise.
And read this from the the Pro Howard Cheerleaders in WA.
http://www.thewest.com.au/default.aspx?MenuID=28&ContentID=44702
I’ve heard the Herald Sun in Melbourne has been a lot more favourable to Rudd since the new editor took over.
Don’t underestimate the power of those News Ltd tabloids: voters in marginal seats read them. An endorsement or two would help Rudd immeasurably.
When is Rupert arriving back in Oz?
Sean @ 391. It’s not the first. Not so long ago they had a headline “This man stands to lose his house” and it was a picture of Howard. So I gather.
middle man @ 399
Oh please, Howard, keep arguing that line!
“What are the rumors about Rudd?”
There’s a strong whisper that he will win the election.
MM @ 399, more weasel words. How surprising.
I said I was sorry they [interest rate rise] occurred. I don’t think I used the word apology,” Mr Howard said.
Please let Labor have this on tape… if this isn’t the core of an attack ad I don’t know what is!
The thing about endorsements from tabloid media (like the tele) is that they are generally read by people who aren’t that interested in politics (or anything else for that matter). Swinging voters tend to fall into that category so its always better to look at the commercial news, current affairs and tabloid media if you want to gauge media reaction that actually bites in terms of party support.
The people who read that Age, or SMH (and to a lesser extent the GG which is really a broadsheet tabloid in many respects) tend to think about politics a bit and have made up their mind ages ago……Thats why i don’t really care much about the GGs desperate bleetings – no one reads it anyway
Frank, love the gender balance in the Perth rag.
will @ 392. In Crikey’s tips and rumours a few days ago, some reporter said that they had a rumour about rudd which will be published tomorrow. The Scores incident was very pale in comparison allegedly. We all got very nervous but the editor of the Tele said there’s nothing to the rumour. Also Rudd told DP he has no skeletons in the cupboard. Phew.
That has got to be game set and match. Now THAT is hubris!!!
Ralph @ 387
I’ve seen the Advertiser polling (which is not worth much) showing a rout and based on a large state-wide swing, and Georganas being the sitting member gaining the personal vote this election, I’d be surprised if Hindmarsh doesn’t get classified as safe Labor on November 25. It will be interesting to see if any demographic changes in Glenelg unsettle what is normally a Liberal stronghold in the seat.
JR @ 409
I don’t think the ALP needs to rerun this as Howard is coming up with them himself about once or twice a week. Last week it was – ‘you have to say it twice for it to be true’.
The mortgage belt trusted Howard, borrowed heavily, and are now getting whacked.
Those very “Howard Battlers” are now picking up their baseball bats, and on the 24th they will be renamed the “Howard Batterers”.
One battered Rodent coming soon!
Mr. Rudd will me too the appology thing too.
Ohh I want to know what the rumor about Rudd is!
HH, I agree that the Herald Sun is not quite as rabid in its support of all-things-Howard that it once was. But it is by no means backing Rudd. And generally seems to give support to the Liberal narrative.
On a positive note, if some non-marginal metropolitan seats are under threat of being lost by the Liberals, then it is the The Age that will have the greater influence. This is what the upper-middle class voters of Melbourne tend to read.
417 JOM Please keep up. The rumor is that Rudd will win the election.
John of Melb, its nothing. The editor said so himself on radio about 30 mins ago.
JoM, the rumour is that he is set to become our next PM. Oh, sorry, that’s not rumour, that’s statistical analysis.
From GG article @ 396
“The prime minister, speaking as the latest figures showed unemployment still at its 33- year low level of 4.2 per cent, again said that getting a person a job was the cornerstone of the economic fabric of the nation.”
Looks like someone jumped the gun on the article.
417 JOM – ABC has just broken it! Rudd’s most important flesh press of the campaign. It must be a big bed!
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/11/08/2085368.htm
Doog, I think you’re right. I actually work in Hindmarsh, so I feel like its my second electorate. Plenty of ‘Howard battlers’ in Hindmarsh that I suspect have been waiting to come back to the ALP for a while. Now that Rudd offers a safe option, I think I’ll go to Labor fairly handsomely.
Noocat @ 368 – couldn’t agree more. It’s the packaging of politics that matters unfortunately. Personality is a major factor. Although Beazley was very unlucky in 1998, he couldn’t really shake the ‘fat’ huffing and puffing image in my opinion. Latham was a disaster. Rudd has this cult of personality that seems to be holding pretty strong.
I could be incredibly dumb today but the rumour by Penberthy is that Labor will the election?
Wow. Some rumour… or is it fact-to-be?
When I heard “rumour”, I thought it had to be about something bad or negative, as most rumours and scuttlebutt are.
Then again, this is typical Daily Errorgraph sensationalism.
Next.
LOL. I predict “Saying sorry is not an apology” is going to be front and centre of political news tonight. (Although the real headlines will probably be about the school shooting in Finland).
Anyway, this is gold (as they say). How to make yourself look even trickier, by JWH.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22723941-12377,00.html
Correction to last post: …. that Labor will WIN the election?
Nah, enough with the baseball bats! If Mr. Howard has given us anything over the last 11 years it’s been a renewed respect and love of our Australian tradtions… there’ll be no baseball bats on the 24th Mr. Howard… will be done in by cricket bats! Faux nationalism will never taste so sweet.
Who do you trust to give a sincere apology?
http://news.brisbanetimes.com.au/pm-denies-apologising-for-rate-rise/20071108-18t4.html
“381
Jude Says:
November 8th, 2007 at 2:05 pm
Note to self: must not get worked up ever again over Crikey tips and rumours. Bloody Crikey!”
Good one, Jude. Part of learning how to not sweat the small stuff is refusing to have your chain jerked by rumour-mongering imbeciles ever desperate to boost their site’s traffic for the gratification of grasping sponsors/advertisers.
—————————————–
If Petit Mal can’t out-debate/perform Gaffe Garrett on the environment at a cosy Press Club chowdown, it doesn’t behove the former merchant banker well as a prospective Liberal Opposition leader, even if he retains Wentworth.
Remember the triple goose he made of himself in the heat of the last parliamentary Question Time? So did the those who will vote for a new trump when El Rodente bites the dust on Nov.24.
KR @ 416 ‘the things that batter’ in a whole new context!
As I’ve mentioned before, the liberal candidate in Hindmarsh, Rita Bouras, is particularly uninspiring. Steve Georganas is a good local member, and although an MP for only one term, he stood unsuccessfully in 1998 and 2001 so has a much larger recognition factor than being a one term MP would suggest. It would be a brave person to suggest a margin for Georganas of less than 7 or 8% after this election has been done and dusted.
Kirribilli Removals, I believe Lord Downer had something to say on that subject a few years ago. The things that….?
El Nino @ 423 – Do you think it was word from Uncle Rupert? Cozzie, we’re no longer supporting you. Kevinator, you da man!
Speaking of editorials, has anyone tortured themselves by reading the smh’s attempt today? You’d think they got Costello in write it. Total, pro Government dross. It makes me wonder what sort of an organisation Fairfax is, when it would obviously know the sorts of people who read it, yet it spins an editorial somewhere to the right of the soup spoon. Argh.
Australia 69-1, Hayden just fell for 43. Jacques on 22, Ponting in now.
better get out the trusty grey nicholls… it needs a new grip. wouldn’t want the bat to turn in my hand on impact.
Maybe Howard is buttering up the electorate for when he finally decides to say sorry to the aborigines and the Stolen Generation. He can point to the fact he said sorry about interest rate rises, but he didn’t apologise, so when he leads the country in saying sorry it won’t really mean we apologise.
RGee @ 435 – Some votes are worth more than others.
It’s a shame the rumour is not true. I ws kind of hoping it was a sex tape with Kate Ellis.
Fulvio: ironic, huh?
I’m thinking about getting a new bat… Slazenger has a model out which is particularly apt… “The Don” …
“Magnificent edges and unparalleled Weight Balancing Technology (WBT) makes ‘The Don’ the biggest bat in the Slazenger range. Slazenger’s unique Rapid Compression System (RCS) rubberised cork handle combines supreme comfort with exceptional strength. The revolutionary, laser etched, face is superbly complemented by the Grade 1 Metalic stickers and Rapid Traction Control (RTC) rubber grip. If you want to play like the worlds best, play with the worlds best, ‘The Don’.”
Mmmmm… this will do just fine…
Universal assumption that Xenophon will poll very well, is this overstated? Success at one level does not automatically equal success at another. Howard in 2007 is in better shape than the SA Libs at the state election, did much of X’s vote come from dispirited Libs in 2006?
I have an original SS Jumbo ready. Off to buy some linseed oil….
Here is one of the several meanings of “sorry”, from the Macquarie Dictionary: “a conventional form of apology for injury or inconvenience caused.”
Interesting to note, though, that “non-core” hasn’t made it to the official recorder of the Australian language yet!
ND – yeah the SMH editorial was almost worse than anything I’ve seen in the OZ. People were speculating here recently that the SMH would endorse labor – I think there’s as much chance of that as the Exclusive Brethren endorsing Labor. The editorial as good as says that the coalition is the sure pair of hands the economy needs – in other words that Howard should be rewarded for the interest lies with another term. It was a straight lift from a lib party strategic memo….pathetic
http://www.thewest.com.au/aapstory.aspx?StoryName=434858
Chairman of Fairfax = Ron Walker
CEO of Fairfax = Some rugger playing prat that was an adviser to the National’s last PM in NZ
Not an ALP loving organization.
Mr X is quite popular here in SA, and whilst I don’t think he will scale the heights seen at the 2006 state election, I really can’t see him having any trouble achieving a quota, one way or another.
Now HERE’S another poll we can all look forward to with great interest:
“THE Sunday Telegraph Galaxy Poll this week will exclusively reveal if Malcolm Turnbull will lose his seat. Our poll will reveal just how close the run to the finish line will be. With only a 2.5% swing needed for the high-profile Environment Minister to be uprooted, the border redistribution Wentworth has undergone is sure to have an impact on how voters react to this week’s interest rate rise. And if he manages to pull a rabbit out of the hat, do Turnbull’s own constituents believe their member is capable of leading the Liberal party and becoming the next Prime Minister.”
If the SMH endorses Howard I am definitely cancelling our subscription.
hopefully lateline will leak it on friday
I seem to remember that Hawke met with Uncle Rupert before the 1983 election. After the election the process euphemistically became known as ‘consensus’.
And for the quadrella… here’s the SMH take on ‘not sorry John’.
I love the photo with the Union Jack…
http://www.smh.com.au/news/economy/no-im-not-sorry-says-pm/2007/11/08/1194329384678.html
These guys are amazingly good fun to watch lately…
Truer words were never spoken, “”We’re to blame for the strong economy,” he said.
“We accept full responsibility for the strong economy – we’re proud of it.”
JWH has badly miscalculated in believing that the poll in News.Com saying that the majority of people don’t blame him for the rate rise.
This poll was spammed by the Liberal party hacks and didn’t truly represent the true feeling in the community.
Now he was walked into his own rat trap by saying he didn’t apologise about rising interest rates.
All we need now is a few more rat traps.
I’ve just been informed that the subprime business in the US is about to take on casualties in Australia. Local commercial Corporate lender can’t receive the overseas funds for on lending to local borrowers. A number of property settlements can’t proceed.
Hmmm…
378 BenC
Yep, I saw the DT this morning. A screaming headline blaming Howard. NOT a good look. Quite a surprise to see this, but definitely justified.
Mr X may struggle for just that reason, the Libs in 2006 were pitiful at best. I believe a lot of his votes came from disaffected voters from both parties. Also, that election was a government in control being re-elected easily. This time round, the electorate could be more polarised. Lib voters trying to save their skins, while Labor voters out in force to ditch the rodent. If the Newspoll primary figures for SA are to be believed, I don’t know if Mr X’s primary support is going to hold up. While striking for a preference deal with FF might help his chances after redistribution, it’s enough to make prospective voters (i.e. me), vote someone else.
I live in Wentworth. While Turnbull’s low margin and the boundary redistribution always get a mention, they don’t add that the conservative vote was split last time when the previous local member, Peter King, decided to run as an independent. There won’t be that sort of interference this time.
Speaking of Radio Gloria, here is a comparison of it’s Breakfast Ratings.
2UE’s Breakfast Show is Left leaning compared to The Parrot on 2GB.
http://www.smh.com.au/news/tv–radio/its-over-fitz-does-his-dash-at-dawn/2007/11/08/1194329381177.html
as for WA media
bwhahahahah
oh dear
its sooo sad
My mother just ran into Bob Hawke on the Hustings – in Manly (seat of Mackella – tony abbots seat). If labor think thats a possiblity with a swing of 15% needed it would be amazing – but probably Bob doing the local candidate a favor. For what its worth he told her that Labor were a sure thing
Howard won the 2004 election on the back of his interest rate promises. He has failed and thus must be made accountable. No excuses, no weasling – a failed promise.
If you lend me your car because I promised I would look afer it and give it back to you later, but instead I crashed the car and denied that I every said I would look after it or give it back – you would toss me off a building.
We lent John Howard the economy on the promise of interest rates because he said he would look after them and keep them in perfect health. He didn’t do this and now denies the promise.
The same goes for Rudd, if he wins, he said the buck stops with him on hospitals. If in three years time they are a mess then he faces the music, no excuses.
FYI. The current Terror editor is a leftie from way back in his Adelaide Uni days. He used to edit the student rag On Dit.
Ashley @ 427 in regard to the PM saying sorry but not apologising!
What a miserable old arrogant SOB. What a mean spirited …..!
Good riddance!
Latham’s handshake and the crude language played well into fears about “union thugs”.
But waxgate meant that Rudd is known internationally as the guy who eats his ear wax… can we rely on the Americans’ short attention span to bury it? ok, probably yes.
so if saying sorry is not an apology (an acknowledgment expressing regret or asking pardon for a fault or offense), then what does ’sorry’ mean?
462
Frank Calabrese Says:
The grey Parrotts 366000 would be all locked in there votes. The only problem Jones and Libs have with this is churn. Hence all the Be buried by an Aussie adds.
1 in 100 Jones listeners a week slip off this mortal coil.
No, I’m not sorry, says PM:
http://www.smh.com.au/news/economy/no-im-not-sorry-says-pm/2007/11/08/1194329384678.html
JWH may have just King Hit Himself!
Game over?
I agree, Matthew Sykes @ 450, Mr X should get in in SA. Not sure I like him personally, but it’s always good to see the odd independent/minor party candidate get into the senate. Plus, he’s sure to keep a Lib out if he gets in, thus helping the overall ALP cause.
On the state level, something tells me that the Libs are a reasonable chance to get in at the next SA election. Once ALP gets in federally, I think we’ll start to see few Lib state gov’ts get elected.
With the difference between ’sorry’ and an apology being illuminated, it looks like the Libs have gone from clutching at straws to splitting straws.
I’m sure this has been pointed out but I haven’t had time to read the posts.
It’s all here is it’s weasel-worded, smarmy, you-battler-mugs-who-were-stupid-enough-to-believe-me-can-all-go-and-get-f**ked glory: http://www.smh.com.au/news/economy/no-im-not-sorry-says-pm/2007/11/08/1194329384678.html.
I told youse he didn’t apologise. He merely made an observation.
Jude – I agree. I think Turnbull is safe – both because the vote last time was affected by the Peter King thing, and because Turnbull has worked the seat quite well.
Lol, if Labor lose from here y’all will be saying the raising of interest rates was the new Tampa.
BB snap
NAB has just announced its raising rates by 0.25%:
“The other big banks are shortly expected to follow NAB and others like Westpac have hinted they may raise home loan rates more than any official rate rises due to higher funding costs following the US credit crunch.”
Also, hasn’t the Parrot had a recent ratings reduction – perhaps he’s been abandoned by disgruntled NLP voters??
Mr X has sold out and will not get anything like 22% of the vote. He has left SA with more pokie debt than ever and quit just before a whole raft of anti-gambling bills were going before parliament. I heard the Adelaide Casino actually held a party the nihgt he quit.
The rumour is:
The Liberals can’t take it any more, and since they are all losers – they concede!
Hawkie was in Manly for launch of Hugh Zochling’s campaign in Warringah. I wonder if the Warringah Worm was there, or if they hired Patrica Petersen as a dancing girl.
Question to all: The other day I asked if anyone knew how to get into election night venues. I live in Griffith and was hoping to wander down to Kevin’s do after a couple of coldies. It was suggested I volunteer to do some mailboxing but my work doesn’t really allow for that. Does anyone know if i’d be able to just wander in unnoticed or are these venues “secure sites”?
I’d love to see some history in the making!!
JoM: Whatever…(stifles yawn).
I’m not sure about your view with regards to the state government here in SA Ralph, I think the Rann government has a fair way to run yet. The only area where Rann has really performed below average is on water, and he knows it. They could probably do with a cabinet reshuffle to shake up a few portfolios, and get in some of the younger talent like Chloe Fox. I believe this is due to happen early next year.
Martin Hamilton-Smith is quite diabolical in my opinion, all wind and no substance. He attacks everything he can get his hands on, and turns off a lot of people I know, even some of my hard-nosed liberal friends.
475 JoM [if Labor lose from here y’all will be saying the raising of interest rates was the new Tampa.]
Todays version of the rate rise is good for Tories,eh?
http://possumcomitatus.wordpress.com/2007/11/08/the-race-against-the-cashrate-clock/
If Turnbull is safe as people here are suggesting, would that not have influenced the overall results of the NSW marginals Newspoll conducted last week? If I recall correctly, Wentworth was included in that poll. Surely that means that there’s still a chance of a significant swing in NSW marginals.
The Parrot’s demographics in Sydney (and he isn’t networked anywhere btw) are almost pure over 55’s, almost all Lib voters. His power over politicians has been based on a total myth that he could deliver huge blocs of votes. Fortunately people are starting to call the bloviator’s bluff.
While I detest almost everything he says, in his defence he can be tenacious when he takes up a cause, some of which are worthy.
middle man – i think you’d need an invite – not to say it would be impossible to crash, though.
I live in Sydney’s east – does any one know of any election night venues there that would be great to attend?
but i have been actively involved in party politics for about 15 years, so things may have changed
but i have been actively involved in party politics for about 15 years, so things may have changed
The Labor party have to go with their “confused” ads.. but this time on apologies.
maybe a Kevin07 shirt might get me in the door?
It looks like NAB has made up its mind that their is going to be a change of government regardless and there is no point on holding back for political reasons.
ooopsss. sorry that should have been NOT actively involved
Of course he is not sorry about what interest rates do to people with loans, he doesn’t care the least about Australians – that ought to be obvious to everyone by now.
Howard is sorry that interest rate rises might hurt his election chances – that is why his sorry is not an appology. The same applies to his sorry to Aboriginals.
Howard is an extremely self centred person who has rarely done anything for anyone apart from himself. It was not for nothing that Dr Hewson made the observation that Howard only made policy for its political effect. WorkChoices whilst seeming political suicide was/is part of the plan to ruin the Labor party.
Howard is one mean little man.
I am not sure if someone has already pointed this out.
Howard now has “non-core” apologies. Talk about tripple sumersault with tripple twist double pike!
{PRIME Minister John Howard today denied apologising for the latest interest rate rise, saying that uttering the word sorry did not amount to the same thing.
Mr Howard said yesterday he was sorry about the pain the rise – the sixth since the 2004 election – would cause borrowers.
But today he denied that amounted to an apology. }
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,22724091-2,00.html
in turnbull’s closing speech he mentioned garret had not talked about water and that the liberals have a water plan.
the 10 billion water plan that has amounted to nothing
howard not supporting beattie’s plan to buy cubby station is killing the murray darling
howard saying sorry is not an apology , unbelievable!
No, I’m not sorry, says PM:
This is the real JWH in action, which the majority of people have come to detest.
Such a sensitive soul our $weetie. Hope those nasty Nichollsians didn’t hurt his feelings too badly. If only people would realise that SubPrime $weetie wants to govern on behalf of All Australians, even those badly messed about by his WorkChoices.
“Aims and objectives
The H.R. Nicholls society supports the abolition of awards, supports the abolition of the minimum wage, supports the abolition of the independent umpire, the Industrial Relations Commission.
The Society believes strongly in the deregulation of the Australian Industrial Relations System, including the abolition of the award system, the widespread use of individual employment contracts and the lowering of minimum wages. The Society only believes in limited labour market regulation, as excessive minimum wages and job security lead to higher unemployment and lower productivity. Since its inception, the Society has firmly advocated urgent reform of the labour market in order to ensure Australia’s international competitiveness and prosperity.”
And whaddya know? Sixteen days before the election and $ubprime $weetie publicly announces that as far as the Society that he co-founded is concerned, well, he feels it best for everybody if he just “lets them go”.
“Really?” Yes, Prime Minister, really and truly.
480
It wouldn’t hurt to give it a go.
I supposed to be attending but I’m not sure I will be in the mood to celerbrate, I imagine I’ll be flat and will most probably have a quiet one with a smile on my face knowing the hard work has just begun.
497 Just wait till the swinging voters hear him say that on TV tonight and read it in the papers tomorrow. It will be back to annihilation figures in the polls again.
middle man: if you arrive at the time howard is making his concession speech I doubt anyone will be watching the door.
Re those wanting to go to an election night party.
Get out and work for your local candidate and you’ll be invited. If you don’t work, you don’t deserve to be invited.
If you think a change matters, then do something to help – stop talking and start doing.
scaper, i’ll swap you my back deck and tv in Bulimba for your pass into KR’s election night do?
Costello on Julia G’s socialist past: “”She wasn’t just a typist and a tea lady in the Socialist Forum,” Mr Costello said.
So ladies, hands up how many of you are going to vote for this man?
I agree with Ian.
I have been volunteering with my local candidate (first time I’ve done it) and my invitation is already in my inbox.
Lend a hand, get an invite!
No, I’m not sorry, says PM:
If I was Kevin Rudd I would run an ad with this statement from Howard, could be the knockout punch he has been looking for.
Why not run their interest rate ad and after each of the six increases have JWH saying
NO, I’M NOT SORRY,
503
I’m not sure my face is worth that much. Give it a go…you might be surprised.
Strictly speaking, Howard is absolutely correct as I’m sure all of us here know.
His expression of sorrow did not amount to an apology, and he intended to word things this way to give himself an out if the washup did not turn out the way he and the Party expected. And it didn’t.
But now the conniving little so and so has to sell his new angle of spin to the unwashed…..who took what he said yesterday at face value.
Hoisted by his own duplicity and over cleverness!!!
All this talk of baseball and cricket bats, why waste good sporting eqipment on the weasel, in my neck of the woods where sharpening up the the chainsaws it’s gunna be a massacre.
396
BV Says:
Howard’s admission he is (and will continue if re-elected) dismantling the welfare state gets a run in the Australian:
This coming from the man who has done more than anyone to encourage bloated middle class welfare dependency (baby bonus, first home buyers grant, etc).
What he is really saying is that the people who actually genuinely need welfare support, are going to get screwed, while he continues pandering to the rest.
What a sick joke. He has got to go.
alrigt alright… i’m usually more of a loner thats all…. i’ll send his office an email.
Scaper, are you the guy from the Australian? Your postings there are great!! I think you are great!!
So Costello has dropped the HR Nicholls society…
Who was it who described them as the industrial relations branch of the Nazi Party?
BB and all others on Howard’s latest piece of crap: this is his reverse-handshake, his anti-Tampa. He’s finally painted himself into a corner.
It’s the moment he had a chance to be genuinely contrite but instead decided for whatever reason to insult the voters and annoy those who now have to pay out of their hip pocket.
It’s the classic mountain goat scenario. You know the one where a mountain goat walks on the side of the hill all of it’s life and so one set of legs is shorter than the other. To catch it, you chase it down onto the plains, where it will run around in ever-decreasing circles until it disappears up it’s own John Howard.
Bird,
I answered you on the last thread that has not moved for hours.
Go have a look.
Costello has really made a goose of himself in this campaign from the get go. John Hewson is right in calling him unelectable.
When delivering pork to National Party electorates, why don’t they give the electorate the full amount rather than give half and leave the states to fund the other half.
http://news.brisbanetimes.com.au/coalition-to-aid-lismore-cancer-centre/20071108-18t7.html
My favourite blog quote of the day, can’t remember who said it but you are a genius:
“Yesterday’s Rodent”
That’s priceless
Gee, that non-core apology is a winner. I guess simultaneously being sorry and trying to spin how clever you are at economic management didn’t wash in his twisted little brain. He simply can’t admit that he ever gets anything wrong. They’re still bragging about how good workchances is, BTW. They have NO idea, and they probably still think some miracle will save them. Oh well, not long now.
I’m hoping Dolly gets his wish and ends up shadow treasurer; and gets totally flogged by Swan every parliamentary day of the next three years.
Is that hubris?
Do you really think Howard’s non-apology will amount to much?
Anyone live on the betting markets, BTW?
EC @ 498 Here,here!!!
516 [John Hewson is right in calling him unelectable.]
Hewson is looking better every day Howard puts his foot in his own mouth.
Labor need to tack that Howard ‘no apology’ quote onto their interest rate ad….
#519 CLdF
“Non-core Apology” is a great quote, somebody in the labor party get that to Rudd pronto pls.
I think this is the sort of message they should hammer home, and often
“Rudd warns of ‘double whammy’ for families”
“Labor leader Kevin Rudd says Australians are now facing a double whammy of higher interest rates and lower wages and the Coalition is to blame.”
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/11/08/2085666.htm?section=justin
For a so called political genius, how stupid can you be trying to justify what amounts to ’sorry?’ Has basically solidified even further Labor’s perception that he is a ‘clever’ politician.
My partner and I are looking to buy a place at the moment and I just got an email from one of the loca real estate agents spruiking Labor’s first home buyers’ plan. All good
The only news outlet not running the sorry story is the ABC.
Depending on how the media handles it, sorrygate could be the final nail in the coffin. It’s almost inconceivable he could be so stupid. Panic is a winderful thing when observed in rodents.
THanks scaper – so, where do you live, what do you do? The project sounds interesting…….ALSO, that guy Macca from Ispwich is amazing…..he is funny
Ian @502
I concur
Join the local branch – be the local candidate!
528
Hold back to after the correction before you invest in real estate.
Meanwhile consolidate to ride out the storm.
The Double Whammy quote has made the front page of ABC online.
Why don’t Labor run with that HR Nicolls statement in an ad? It shows us where Costello’s ideology will take us on IR if he becomes PM.
Check this out.
http://www.abc.net.au/unleashed/stories/s2084478.htm
“So it seems to me that this all reflects a sensible middle view. The RBA’s verdict on Labor’s economic management is that they will do at least as well as the Coalition. And that is why economics and interest rate rises mean nothing whatsoever for this election season.”
Bird
I live in Moreton and I own a business called scapers.
Perrett is a tosser but I will vote for him and then I want nothing to do with him ever.
Don’t get me wrong, there are some really good guys on all sides, and I choose to deal with them as I hold the cards.
Garrett beats Turnbull on climate: poll
Thursday Nov 8 14:37 AEDT
“Voters in marginal seats believe Labor environment spokesman Peter Garrett – despite his election campaign gaffes – is more serious about tackling global warming than his coalition opponents, a new survey finds.
The survey also found three-quarters of those polled backed a position on a new global carbon-emissions treaty that Mr Garrett was forced to abandon last week.
The survey, commissioned by the Climate Institute, found 43 per cent of the voters thought Mr Garrett “very serious” about climate change, compared with only seven per cent for federal Environment Minister Malcolm Turnbull.”
http://news.ninemsn.com.au/article.aspx?id=305598
Costello leaves HR Nicholls Society?! what’s the fuss? just one less member!
I bet 70% of Howard’s cabinet are in that extreme right-wing cult, include Howard himself.
Would Howard and the rest of the clan follow suit to boycott this HR Nicholls Society? If not, it will be a slap-in-the-face to Costello
sorry, is Perrett Macca? Who is Perrett
I have to say there are some pretty jaundiced people on the Australian’s website
Hey sean/Sean/ http://sean / http://Sean
we’ve got a couple of Sean’s here, it doesn’t really worry me, I like to read both Sean’s comments… however, I do like to keep track of you Seans… so!
Could you please come to some agreement amongst yourselves as to a distinctive and consistent nomenclature! (sean/nu-sean, sean/orginal sean, sean/ the _real_ sean, Seanie/Seano… possibilities, endless, Hell! I’ll even give you a complementary Rocket if that’ll make things easier… Sean Rocket!)
Perrett is the labor candidate for the electorate of Moreton…..unfortunately.
Sportingbet has Maxine @2.75 out from $2.60 over the last few days.
Newspoll and the MSM has gulled the poor sods into backing the Rodent.
The soon to be Battered Rodent…nice with chips I hear!
The good thing about sorry-gate is that it further highlights the weasel word habits of Howard – he’s behvaing exactly like the pettifogging lawyer he was – he carefully chooses words to ensure that he can’t actually be held accountable for whatever it is he APPEARS to be promising. Hopefully this, together with the whole imbroglio around the interest rates promise from 2004, will illuminate his whole approach – ‘tell ‘em what they want to hear in a way that you can later deny’.
The wheels fell off a while ago. The axles are about to let go any minute now …
Rudd’s linking of interest rates to the ratsak formerly known as WorkChoices by observing that rates have increased every 15 weeks since WC was introduced was a master stroke. It needs to be repeated ad nauseum from now until the 23rd. IMHO, this is far more potent than hammering the broken “record levels” promise. Folk expect politicians to break promises, but if the idea takes hold that a policy they already hate is also blowing out their mortgage and credit card payments then the cricket bats will really start swinging.
On the “non-core apology” (LOVE that phrase!) I don’t know what makes me madder:
1. Howard’s attempt to use the word “sorry” in the same sentence as “interest rates” and thus seek to fool people into thinking he’d said “Sorry FOR the interest rates” instead of “Sorry ABOUT the interest rates”;
2. The ABC’s morphing of the word “Sorry” into a full-strength “Apology” on last night’s TV news.
3. Today’s backdown.
Anyone who believed him on interest rates in 2004 and got dudded, and who has now seen this “sorry” for the “non-core apology” that it is, and STILL votes for Howard should be taken to the nearest veterinary clinic and humanely destroyed.
Kina
Labor can’t run on Howard keeping wages low. They’re too sensitive to the big end of towns concerns re inflationary pressures and howards jibe about a wages explosion under Labor. Its another one of those traditional labor areas that have effectively been shut down – any policy that smacks of equity really. Labor would no doubt like to say that while profits have skyrocketed the wages share has fallen or that Bucket loads of taxpayer money is being tipped into middle and uppermiddle class welfare but they can’t cos it will offend the editorial writer of the australian and the big end of town and lead to cries of ‘the politics of envy’. THats why workchoices was a godsend to labor – it gave it a rare chance to play on its traditional ground of workers rights and equity – gave it back its identity and they’ll be dining off it for years to come.
539 ALP candidate Graeme I believe. He was on SBS. I wrote to him as he just kep mum when the young audience went on about how Howard has made the economy strong.
Yes they can, they can say it is an admission by the Liberals that WorkChoices cuts pay and conditions.
Yes brutal but warranted..
You’re right Sean – that’s why they’re hammering productivity. It’s a winner on a couple of fronts. After all, Howard’s idea of productivity is cutting one of the input costs (wages) while maintaining consistent outputs. I guess you have to do that when interest rates are running at 22% for small business, which i think was Howard’s record …
Re 543,
Wonder if Howard is game enough after this stunt to give Kerry at go tonight on the 7:30 report?
…….
I wouldn’t go that far, I would just say that a person who still votes for Howard in this situation has no right to ever complain about a politician breaking another promise.
Rudy Giuliani is looking good. I hope he wins the US Presidential race.
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,22724322-23109,00.html
Bird @487 – Try Randwick Labor Club!
JoM – I’m really looking forward to President Clinton being welcomed to Australia in 2009 by Prime Minister Rudd …
443
John Rocket Says:
I’m thinking about getting a new bat… Slazenger has a model out which is particularly apt… “The Don” …
Mmmmm… this will do just fine…
Nothing so fancy for me, I just have a piece of skanky old 4×2 that will do the job fine. Ain’t gonna waste a nice cricket bat on him.
519
CL de Footscray Says:
[Howard] simply can’t admit that he ever gets anything wrong.
It is actually a genuine psychopathology with him. Seriously. I think he really is incapable of a genuine apology.
And in the context of today’s debate between Garrett and Turnbull, and some comments on this site, this is interesting:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/in_depth/7075759.stm
It isn’t so surprising that Garrett beats Turnbull when it comes to voter’s perceptions on who to trust on climate change. We’re pitting a life-long, high profile, vocal, environmentalist against an ex-banker.
Too bad that we don’t get to all vote for who becomes minister for this or that, and it only comes down to which party gets more seats than the other.
Footscray I too am looking forward to JWH welcoming Giuliani
John, dream on …
it occurs to me that el rodente’s team, in saying that people will be able to take twice the annual leave, at half pay, means that a person who does this would end up with 4 weeks in a year as unpaid leave. or is my maths bad? (my maths is usually pretty good…)
Please define sorry, Mr Howard
“PRIME Minister John Howard today denied apologising for the latest interest rate rise, saying that uttering the word sorry did not amount to the same thing.”
http://www.news.com.au/0,,nsw,00.html
JOM, What is it with Tories always pining for yesterday’s heroes?
Steve – I pine for yesterday’s heroes also. Just not the same ones as the Tories…
Bring back PJK!!
[Rudy Giuliani is looking good. I hope he wins the US Presidential race.
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,22724322-23109,00.html
National polls are completely meaningless. The candidates have to win in New Hampshire and Iowa.
Steve bring on Costello.
Footscray didn’t Howards promise of fixing Whiten oval get your vote last time?
hi there Scaper, Swampy told me about you, he was impressed.
I see the Liberal Trolls are coming out with stuff like this: “… if Labor lose from here y’all will be saying the raising of interest rates was the new Tampa.”
What is it with these guys and the Tampa?
It’s some sort of cargo-cult mentality: “We won’t have to do anything to get re-elected, a great big ship will come over the horizon bringing goodies that will deliver the win for us.”
And I thought that PNG politics was backward.
Mike Steketee in the Australian:
“Australian interest rates are the second highest in the industrial world”
Why the f.ck haven’t we heard that from labor!
passthepopcorn #560 yes that’s right, but some people may prefer it that way.
It’s another way of saying that, as well as four weeks’ paid leave a year, you can get another four weeks of unpaid leave. provided it’s optional, it sounds like a good thing to me. And some employees can negotiate this sort of stuff already.
The announcements on leave made by Hockey this week were quite good policy, in my opinion, but they’ve been drowned out by interest rates.
Of course, extended PAID maternity and paternity leave is what a lot of people really want, but I’d be surprised if either side offers it. It would win votes, of course, but would cost government,. or employers, or both, quite a lot of money. But these are the sort of things we should be doing to make sure everyone can be productive in the workforce, and balance it with family.
They all talk about this stuff, but not actually promise much.
565 We’re bringing $weetie to the Liberal Party room meeting in three weeks time to see if he has enough spine to run for Leader of the Opposition.
Rudi main offsider Bernie Carrier wreck is about to be charged. The Flat earthers will never nominate a post 1860’s guy.
CL @ 543
Nice, spot on
steve @517 asks:
Because they know the states are too poor to match all the promises being made so most of the pork never has to be delivered with the states wearing the blame. And if a state is silly enough to stump up for a project, the feds get all the credit for half price.
BTW-its not confined to NP seats.
Steve @ #562, I don’t know, but they are all in love with Ronald Regan, who for all of his rhetoric was a big spendin’, big deficit inducin’ guy. Not the mention the fact that he had early onset Alzheimer’s while he was president was in all truth better suited to pottering around a chook farm than running the free world.
It was so apparent yesterday that this ’sorry’ would be backflipped from before long. Johnny is the epitome of slime. The last days…
Australia should be proud one of our captials is named after Darwin. Although it could make it part of the coalitions (of the willings) target package after they finish perfecting Iraq
How can anyone take Howard seriously anymore?
This constant flip flopping should condemn him even more than the interest rate increase itself.
566Judy
I’ve been looking for swampy around the blogs and I was worrying about the old warrior.
Please let him know about my concerns and ask him to visit me at Blogocracy.
Sorrygate leads ABC Local Radio news in Sydney …
Kev needs to go on TV , not with another boring confusing graph but with a piece of a graph: the missing piece with the 22% Howard years.The bit they cut out of their ad. Ruddy could pull it out from under the carpet where they hid it in the room with the big Aussie map. It’d be a laugh too.
so saying sorry to the stolen generations amounts to a personal apology for something he wasn’t responsible for. But now saying sorry implies that he is upset that people are suffering a rate increase. HUh?
572 [Australian interest rates are the second highest in the industrial world]
It’s been that way for most of Howard’s term. Bit like ‘the Highest taxing Government in the History of Australia’. Been that way for that long that nobody gets surprised with the Tories economic mismanagement credentials.
Hey JoM just got out of school.
Where’s General Wenck?
From the Age
It just gets better, he keeps squirming in his own slime
‘Sorry’ on rates not an apology
Mr Howard yesterday said he was “sorry” about the pain the rise – the sixth since the 2004 election – would cause borrowers.
But today he denied that amounted to an apology.
He said he was sorry the rise happened but was not apologising for it.
“I said I was sorry they occurred. I don’t think I used the word apology,” Mr Howard told reporters.
“I think there is a difference between the two things. I think we’ve been through that debate before in the context of something else.
“I’m sorry when interest rates go up because it does impose a burden on people, I understand that.
“But it’s also fair of me to point out that … a family in which say dad (works) full-time and mum (works) part-time got what, $20 a week out of the last budget in tax cuts?
“I think you’ve got to put that up against the impact of the interest rate rise.”
Mr Howard said rates had risen because of the impact of the drought, skyrocketing oil prices and the strong economy.
“We’re to blame for the strong economy,” he said.
“We accept full responsibility for the strong economy – we’re proud of it.”
Whats more, the tallest building in Darwin is called “Evolution”:
http://www.darwintoday.com/main/
Go Sorrygate, play play and play!!!
Any news from Deakin?? I see Costellos office got attacked by the greens. I hope they used yellow paint to do this.
You’ve got to love the Govt Gazette
The unemployment rate goes up and their headline:
“Jobless rate up from 33 year low”
You and me both CL
:) …. and just for the record, I sent in my postal vote application today for the US elections. I had to send it in this early as my state, Michigan, has primaries in January. US elections you end up voting twice. Once within the party to select the candidate (each state sets their own time for the primary elections) and then the general election to select the main offices in November.
Who is General Wenck?
“PRIME Minister John Howard today denied apologising for the latest interest rate rise, saying that uttering the word sorry did not amount to the same thing.”
This guy gives rodents a bad name. He truly is a disgusting human being.
585
ShowsOn Says:
Whats more, the tallest building in Darwin is called “Evolution”:
Darwin’s shoreline and city area are turning into another Gold Coast style high rise apartment jungle.
thanks for that, antonio. but i think that the employees who can “negotiate this sort of stuff” already might well be earning enough money to not notice the loss of 4 weeks of income. i consider myself to be on a reasonable income (gross in mid 90s) but am “highly geared”, as it were, and therefore would really feel the loss of 1/13 of my income. a lot of people would probably prefer to take 1/2 the leave and double the money! certainly some of those people struggling with increased mortgage repayments courtesy of interest rates which are (thanks, sean @ 568) “second highest in the industrial world”.
Vandalising Costello’s office simply plays into the government’s hands.
General Wenck is Glen.
574 [big deficit inducin’ guy]
Wash ya mouth out, ND! Tories wouldn’t run big deficits, would they?
Re 591,
Lets use weasel instead?
…. Probably more apt in the final analysis anyways 
We need Kev on Tv not getting angry or even just plotting future courses, as Howard is doing with his opportunuity society speech today.
Kevin needs to forget the past of Howards mistaakes and concentrate on vision, you know ‘the vision thing’ keep the language simple and direct, hes been too convoluted in his interest rate attacks. While that might assuage the canny knuckleheads, it just confuses the numbnuts from Macsuburb.
Simple and direct ie.
‘We will keep interest rates low by investing oin prodcutivity via education revlution and budget surpluses etc etc and cutting gov spending in bearocracy, at the same time we will be there for you if things get tough, Mr Howard is for law of the jungle, we are for the civil society…the great society i know we can be. All we need is the chance, somehting that is not available by Howards cruel rules or survival of the fittest. This is the 21st c not the 19th surely we can concieve of a better world for our future and our children’
*sniff*
I thank you.
Feel free to pass this on to Kev.
JoM – the Whitten oval thing disappeared without trace. You must realise that as many people around here barrack for other teams as barrack for the dogs. Anyway, the state govt is pitching in a fair bit, as are we ratepayers. Personally, I’m a Geelong supporter. I’d be quite happy for the dogs to amalgamate with North and move to Carrara (not really, they add a bit of colour around here …).
Nicola is safe in this seat for as long as she wants it, I’d say. I certainly hope, however, that she’s a slightly more active member than Ralph was. Not that such a feat would be difficult.
Howard is right, you can be sorry about something happening but Howard never apologised (took the blame) for the rate rise because outside influences and not his policies have contributed significantly to the RBA’s decision to raise rates, in particular oil prices and the drought.
Rudy is going to win the Republican nomination, he’s got the Christian right to accept the inevitable (Pat Robinson) that he’ll be the nominee and in 2008 he’ll destroy Clinton as she polarizes Americans and Rudy can take votes off the ‘Surrender-crats’ and Independents.
Rudy can lose Iowa, New Hampshire and SC and still win the nomination, he leads in all the big states, Florida, Pennsylvania, New York, and California who send more delegates to the convention than the opening 3 states.
Good news Rudd is sick so that’s going to hurt his campaign something he can’t afford, perhaps he should start walking early like Howard and keep fighting fit.
Turnbull did well in the debate with Garrett, funny how Peter never talked about water security not once, i think he thinks his portfolio is all about climate change and nothing else, Turnbull is far more rounded on all Environmental issues.
Please God, Allah, Buddha, Jehovah, Shiva anyone end this nightmare that is the liberal party. We have suffered enough here in Australia. We have tortured enough of your children. Send pestilence to the liberal party, strike them down wherever they may lie.
(not forgetting the gods of Olympus and those of Asgard)
what’s this about smirk’s office being vandalised by “greens”? please tell me it isn’t so.
CL – bite your tongue.
North Melbourne is going nowhere but up the ladder.
We are North Melbourne and we shall not be moved.
Would have thought an ALP voter would join us in the struggle against the evil capitalist AFL running dogs.
599,
Please, no. Don’t want Aker over at Arden Street, he doesn’t fit into the North Shinboner culture (even if they go to the GC, they will always be “North” to me) ……
Lol, Glen is a gun!
General Wenck? Isnt he the last general of the Nazis? Who fought off the Western allies then turned east to break through the Russian lines to get the remnants of Steiners et al armies out form the Berlin trap?
At that stage in April 1945 you could march from the US front line in the West to the Russian front line in the East right across Nazi Germany in less than one day.
you know the tories are beaten here when they start talking up their chances in the US election.
Re the original story which started this post (remember?).
Newspoll has NSW with the lowest swing, but Centrebet has ALP the favourite in 27/50 seats.
Extrapolate that….
John of Melbourne, General Wenck was a German General in WW2 who aimed at releaving Berlin from encirclement and trying to secure the movement of refugees away from the Red’s and towards the Americans. He failed and this doomed the citizens of Berlin.
I can’t remember who on the left first raised it but its a running joke that whenever the tories come back in the polls, its currently 6 points, so General Wenck is 6km from Berlin lol!
Gerr you are right. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/General_Wenck
Glen, your daily battle with reality is extraordinary to behold. Keep up the good work. Multiple fantasies now! Whatever they’re putting in the water at 120 Collins must be really good stuff …
passthepopcorn – not sure if it’s members of the greens party, but people who wrote environmental and anti-nuclear slogans.
it just seems to me the wrong way to lobby during an election campaign – or at any time really, but certainly counter-productive during an election campaign
“518
Peachy Says:
November 8th, 2007 at 3:29 pm
My favourite blog quote of the day, can’t remember who said it but you are a genius:
“Yesterday’s Rodent”
That’s priceless ”
Thanks muchly, Peachy and Mark. Am forwarding your endorsement to me dear old mum and dad. Rusted-on ALP all their lives, they’ll be plenty chuffed too.”
@537 Yep that’s how the Garrett debate played alright, to all you knockers, Garrett was GOOD, and will get better. Suprised me actually.
Howard has just guaranteed that the rate rise story (and aftermath) will be on the news again tonight. Another own goal by Howard.
605
John of Melbourne Says:
November 8th, 2007 at 4:30 pm
Lol, Glen is a gun!
Glen is the one shot in the locker they have left.
glen, that’s pretty disgusting of you to call kevin’s illness good news. and el rodente is not immune to getting viral illnesses just because he walks regularly.
I can’t believe you are so moronic that you actually believe this stir-fried manure.
Maybe so, but they just won’t vote fduring the general election, meaning the Democrat – whoever it is – will win in a landslide.
Sorry Peterm, Julie. No offence. Just being provocative. Anyway, you guys did us a couple of favours this year!
General Keating Wenck managed to get 3 or 4 kms from berlin in 1996. Nuff said.
Glen:
But wait. Howard kinda sorta promised for 2 days and personally that interest rates would remain at record lows. Is he now saying that he doesn’t have control over interest rates. So is he merely a lying deceptive scumbag, or an ignorant lying scumbag?
Hey Julie – we ain’t going to the Gold Coast.
You cannot mention shinboner spirit and Gold Coast in the same sentence, its like saying the Howard Government and social justice – they are diammetrically opposed.
John of Melbourne, you’ve switched to the US election now?? Is that conceding defeat??
Am loving Howard get trapped in his weasel words. I think he wasnt expecting the SORRY headlines, beacuse as he said with respect to the stolen generations, you shouldnt apologise unless your RESPONSIBLE for something and he doesnt want to be held responsible for the rate rise
Gerr
My sense is that the economy is all Howard has left and interest rates the only real attack with which he can get any traction (though most probably not) Labor can’t take anychances. If they blow away the interest rate claim they rebuke Howard’s ‘ownership’ of the economy as an issue.
The rat has been thoroughly cornered and its the last drain pipe he can run up. Labor need to nail the interest rate issue properly this time – Latham made a monumental hash of it and they paid big time… As I said before 22% under Howard in the 80s, second highest in the industrial world, keep repeating it….Don’t take any chances and don’t do what Latham did last time which was to effectively turn the other cheek and concede. Your average hocked up to the eye balls joe is jumpy, easily spooked and doesn’t have a clue how the economy works. They’re highly open to suggestion and fear and the rodent knows this.
They have plenty of time to do the vision thing after they’ve put the rodent out of his misery.
“Rudd is sick so that’s going to hurt his campaign something he can’t afford”
Have you been following the numbers Glen? He’s got plenty in the bank…
Latest Labor ad, attacking the dynamic duo’s economic credentials:
Are the Liberals good economic managers? NO
http://www.howardfacts.com/features/economic_management.php
General Wenck is, Judas at the last moment, wiping Christ’s brow with a wet cloth.
Glen:
And if you read the RBA’s statement yesterday, they blamed Howard’s failure to invest in skills and productivity and rubbished Howard and Costello’s claim about inflation and the global economy.
yeah, I think North Melbourne is going to the gold coast… which is a shame, I wish they were going to Canberra!
On the Newspoll you will see something odd as I noted before from the demographic breakdown. Howard’s increase in NSW seems to have come entirely from women aged 35-49 in the one week and in Victoria his sudden increase seems to have come people over 50 in another weeks – sudden jumps. It looks quite like a sampling annomaly.
@620
Watch out! It’s a trck question! The correct answer is – both.
thanks, michael @ 611 – agree, extremely dodgy, especially during an election campaign.
Glenn at 600, Howard’s claim that high oil prices are to blame for the spike in inflation is a lie.
According to the ABS, the biggest contributors to CPI inflation in the year to September were housing costs, health, education and food. Transportation (which includes oil) made a negative impact.
The high $A is holding down traded goods inflation. But the big imposts, and the nerve that Rudd has touched, is in day-to-day goods and services.
Sorry, no apology: Howard
Prime Minister John Howard has drawn a distinction between saying he is sorry about yesterday’s interest rate rise and apologising for it.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/11/08/2085733.htm?section=justin
Rofl, the bunny scare campaign rating.
http://www.howardfacts.com/news/1007/spot22-01.php
If this hair splitting / semantic bullcrap goes rewarded on election day, then we truly deserve the government we get.
Here is a black and white, cut and dry example of a politician making up garbage, and selling it as if it is a coherent argument about reality. If this doesn’t go punished, then politicians will be able to get away with anything.
Asanque there is a difference in implementing policies to put downward pressure on interest rates like Howard has done and the influences out of his control like oil prices and the drought, if those two factors weren’t present we probably wouldn’t be having rate rises so how is he lying?
But Andrew he never apologised for the rate rise, he said he was sorry it happened he never accepted blame for the rate rises, how can you when oil prices and the drought have caused higher than expected inflation? How can Howard control oil and food prices?
K Jin we have Glen and Tuffy.
Andrew no I’m not conceding, I say what happened in Ireland will happen here.
JWH should run larger surpluses that will sort out interest rates.
John@628
While I agree that the shinboner spirit would do much for socially just government in Canberra, we tried that path to no avail. We give you Simon Crean instead.
I suggest those that doubt North Melbourne will be staying at Arden St and thriving in Melbourne should go to http://www.wearenorthmelbourne.com
The faithful are fighting back and like Rudd and his comrades, we will win.
Sean
Yeah agreed, buT with one caveat, I think going completely positive on the economy and the vision thing is what ppl want. Labor wont win only off the ‘Im sick of the weazel’ vote, the ppl want to be inspired, they really do.
Also playing positive while attacking head on gives us a good cop bad cop scenario.
Just announced on Sky news agenda -
“Tomorrows galaxy poll has turnbull behind in wentworth”
No figures yet.
You idiot. If Howard has put downward pressure on interest rates, why have they gone up 6 times in the last 3 years?
You live in a fantasy land, but only occasionally get mugged by reality.
For someone who believes in the three Rs for education, Howard is pretty post modern in his use of language and meaning.
This would be because people realise he is gutless, and was unable to get Kyoto ratification through cabinet.
#629 kina,
yes i noticed that too and thought it was a bit odd. i agree that given the small sample sizes per state, it does look rather like a statistical anomaly.
Peachy – really? I’m shocked.
Glen – you’re right – Howard can say sorry without accepting blame. But his statements today are a bad look.
#645
“Tomorrows galaxy poll has turnbull behind in wentworth”
it was said by a 2UE talkback jock, said he had just seen the poll before he came in to the interview. Probably wasn’t supposed to be released yet, but i can’t imagine he would get it wrong on such a crucial thing
Yeah, as in there IS no such thing as universal meaning.
I think some voters would’ve appreciated the P.M. standing up and saying sorry. But now his obfuscating and semantic word game garbage will just make people think he is becoming mentally unstable.
Latest Labor ad, attacking the dynamic duo’s economic credentials:
Are the Liberals good economic managers? NO
http://www.howardfacts.com/features/economic_management.php
Of course the liberal press will try to trash Howard, and spin it for all its worth and it is not a good look but the media have never wanted Howard to win this year so it wouldn’t surprise me if they ran on this. I bet The Age comes out and belts him tomorrow, but if you look at what he said yesterday he said he’s sorry about that happening he’s not sorry for causing it because he didn’t he’s sorry that they went up.
There is a difference between if Howard said i apologise it was my fault i am to blame than saying you are sorry for something happening.
Glen: No more bullshit.
http://www.rba.gov.au/MediaReleases/2007/mr_07_20.html
There is no mention of drought or oil prices.
And if Howard can say sorry without taking responsibility, where was the sorry during ‘reconciliation’?
Has anyone seen much on this? It doesn’t seem to have got much coverage thankfully:
More Garrett claims
Updated: 01:11, Wednesday November 7, 2007
Prime Minister John Howard has pounced on claims made by broadcaster Charles Wooley, that Labor environment spokesman Peter Garrett told him that Labor would change their policies if they are re-elected at the next election.
Mr Wooley has confirmed a conversation did take place in September, and that Mr Garret had told him that the promises made by Labor during the election campaign, may not be kept after it.
Re Howard’s apology, theres no point in arguing the semantics of it – its an horrendous look. People are sick of Howards lawyers tongue…
Glen;
Really?
Howard previously said saying sorry was an admission of guilt.
Therefore he wouldn’t apologise during reconciliation.
So is he a deceptive liar or an ignorant liar?
Well exactly. In fact, it is probably worse than the interest rate increase itself.
He just comes across as being mean and tricky 2.5 weeks out from an election.
I think he is the jackpot – a deceptive hypocritical ignorant liar.
I’m in a very safe Lib seat and not seeing many ads from either party. While I’m watching the ads on youtube etc, this doesn’t give me any idea as to the frequency. I know it’s difficult but can anyone from a marginal seat tell me about their impression of how often Labor or Liberal ads are featuring on TV? Is Labor putting more ads on now or are they still waiting…?
re Howard’s Sorry but Not Appology…
As far as Howard concerned, those suffering from the last 6 interest rises since the 2004 election are just collateral damage by his “record” economic management.
Indeed, as he’s put it, he’s proud of that (sic)
God! I hate that SoB!
ShowsOn
Why ill tell you why?
Unemployment has been low very low under Howard’s good management.
Oil prices have gone up since 1996 from $20 odd to $100 a barrel, talk about inflation there.
The drought has increased food prices and put further pressure on rates.
State ALP Govts, running up millions of dollars in debt, puts more pressure on rates.
Michael
That got an airing on the weekend. Howard brought it up on the insiders but it didn’t really go anywhere. I haven’t heard it mentioned since …
Glen petrol actually contributed -0.2 to the most recent CPI figure.
It has gone up but is exceptionally volatile.
That’s why it’s not counted in the RBA underlying rate….
If Garrett can get away with saying Labor will dump all the me-too policies then who cares about what Howard said!
People only care about policy.
Would love to see a Chaser sight-gag ; dozens of people in worm costumes spaced out along the Rodent’s walk, falling down dead as he walks past.
ALP brochures ‘put in jury summonses’
http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,22724377-5005961,00.html
Hmmm stirring up a storm in Queensland.
Looks like the State Public Sector Unions could be in some trouble.
Howards scare campaign is really working, it has scared me into voting for Rudd.
Howard would give out handjobs if it would get him re-elected
People who don’t like politicians who are deceptive and manipulative flip-floppers.
Wrong. People decide more on whether or not they like the leader. Leaders who flip-flop around a lot, who say one thing one day, then contradict themselves the other are considered weak leaders.
I just don’t understand why Howard is so worried about semantics? After all, he said “sorry” – let the media make of it what they will. And the public would have probably thought, “Aw what a nice fellow for apologising!” He’s diverting attention away from his own policies and “economic growth” by quibbling over sorry vs apology.
This seems to be out of character (but I’m not complaining!).
Rates Analyst is that because of the high Aussie dollar?
“Unemployment has been low very low under Howard’s good management.”
Well if you change the definition of unemployment as howard did to include anyone who works at least 1 hr a week – sure the figures have gone down!
Doesn’t tell you anything about the underemployment problem though, and it makes any comparison with previous unemployment figures completely baseless.
Nath your potty mouth is not welcome here mate, we are interested in debating politics not your disgusting attempts at smearing the PM.
Has it occurred to “someone who shall remain nameless” that high petrol prices are similar to high interest rates? They reduce spending on other things.
Lucky for Howard we have high petrol prices or interest rates would be much higher.
Glen:
More Liberal propaganda and lies.
1. Laurie Oakes dispelled this myth today – anyone have the link?
2. Do you know anything about how measures of inflation work?
3. And what has the Howard government done to prevent the drought. Oh right, Howard has made up a $10 billion plan without cabinet consultation that is not going through. His alternatives are ads to tell us there is no problem, or to pray.
4. Lie – See here: http://larvatusprodeo.net/2007/08/05/preferred-economic-managers-clueless-on-economics/
…don’t anyone answer Glen… please!
Ponting stumped! Now that’s a tradegy
Glen – probably some dope in the post office or wherever who just couldn’t help himself or herself. Good to see Anna Bligh coming down so hard against it.
651 Michael – that whole Garrett thing is well and truly over. The Libs are hanging on to it. What else have they got? It is going nowhere.
John Of Melb
Partly because of AUD yes – mainly becuase the oil price actually declined through July and August and the wonderfully named “crack spread” (the difference between oil and refined petrol) decreased.
But most consumers don’t buy unprocessed barrels of oil, they buy petrol, so the oil price is a bit of a red herring, sometimes.
As long as Phil Jaques stays in and makes a 100 ill be happy.
John Rocket afraid of a debate with your political opponents??? Or do you want to live in la la land with the rest of the Rudd huggers on this blog?? What point is there debating politics with people who agree with you it gets boring after a while anyway, still its a free country so do as you please.
621,
A club is made of of many different people and we won’t all have exactly the same beliefs. I will barrack for North no matter where they play. I am sure you feel the same. I don’t begrudge you your wish for them to remain at Arden Street. Just continue to barrack for them even if they move, alright?
:)
Good Rattus @ 662
What a great sight that would be! Love it! Bags being lead worm …
The interesting thing about General Walther Wenck seems to be that rather than making a suicidal attack to relieve Berlin on Hitlers orders, he attacked to join up with another retreating German army. To save these troops and a large number of German civilians he withdrew then across the Elbe and so they could surrender to the Americans rather than the Russians.
Seems like he saw the writing on the wall and said “bugger that for a game of soldiers Adolf, your on your own mate.”
A bit like the LNP candidates election material not having any mention of the dear leader maybe?? Aimed at avoiding a battering with the baseball bats mayhap??
re “sampling anomaly”: i note that newspoll used “final results …from survey conducted October 6-7 2004″. i may simply be brain dead, but i can’t quite work out what they mean.
Just on sorrygate. Can someone help me to understand something. What freakin CRACK has that dirty rodente been smoking? Trying to spin “sorry” as “not an apology”? Was he seriously thinking it would help him?
Another thing. Anyone notice the really begrudging tone that he took on when he expressed his sympathy this time. “So I’m not apologising. OK? But look, of course I understand that these things hurt. Yeah, of course I do. I can understand that. I don’t apologise though.” I was just a Clarke & Dawe sketch all over.
Wheels on the bus fall off off off..off off off…off off off…
Think that I have missed something while watching the cricket today. What’s on with Rudd, Pancho? Thanks
GB – agreed, just curious that I hadn’t heard about it – considering how much time I waste reading about the election on the net
whatever
I’m predicting a lot of those swings in SA, will be concentrated on already Labor held seats. I would be stunned if the ALP wins either Sturt or Boothby, regardless of what these polls may suggest.
He just has a cold, probably wont effect him though.
Galaxy Wentworth poll will be interesting. If it comes in around 52-53 for Labor as previous polls have indicated, then I’d expect it will be dismissed by the MSM in the same way as all the polls for Bennelong have been.
Julie – he has a sniffle. The campaign’s over… Labor can’t win from there
JWH’s non-apology getting coverage on Ch 10 news.
sorry to offend the delicate Glen with my ‘potty mouth’. Glen, you’re un-Australian.
is that glen being contrite?
kev, I’m still unsure on Boothby, but the signs are very, very good indeed in Sturt.
#684 Apparently Rudd, Therese and daughter all have the flu.
Cheers RA, I’ll have to do an economics course through you, lol.
The RBA’s underlying measure of inflation take out one-off items and factors not related to domestic demand – like global oil prices and drought-induced spikes in fruit and vegetable prices.
The RBA didn’t hike rates last year when banana prices soared due to cyclone damage, prompting a one-off jump in the headline CPI. Equally, it is looking through temporary benign impacts now, such as the impact of childcare concessions.
Howard’s clever oil-and-drought-is-to-blame story is just another convenient smokescreen. The fact is that thegovernment, through demand-boosting fiscal stimulus and lack of investment of its commodity-driven surpluses in infrastructure and skills development, has let inflation get out of control.
The Reserve Bank has warned Howard and Costello of this possibility at least a dozen times in recent years, yet the government has continued to squander the fruits of externally generated prosperity on short-term electoral gain.
The consequences of this short-sightedness? Our foreign and household debt burdens are at record levels, our economy has run out of spare capacity because of under-investment in essential services, our schools and hospitals are under-funded because Canberra has cut back funding to the states in real terms, we are running a chronic current account deficit of 6 per cent of GDP at a time of the most benign terms of trade in five decades and we have the second highest interest rates in the industrialised world.
There is already and open and shut case to rid ourselves of this deceitful, mean spirited government on moral grounds. But, please, spare me lectures about economic management. They fail miserably on that account as well.
God bless Glen. I think this whole site would be lesser with out him and his ilk adding spice to the conversation.
And they make me laugh so…
Nath i never knew it was an Australian to say your Prime Minister would give sexual favours for votes, i think most people even on your side of politics would find that offensive and i hope William deletes those disgusting comments.
Enough said.
NB, is also a Glen alais
RGee @ 449
“CEO of Fairfax = Some rugger playing prat that was an adviser to the National’s last PM in NZ”
Oh, you mean David Kirk. Well he’s the only All Black Captain to have led the team to a Rugby World Cup win – way back in 1987. He’s also a medical doctor by training, although he also has a post-graduate politics/economics degree from Oxford or Cambridge. However he was an adviser to Jim Bolger. Mind you Jim Bolger isn’t all that bad – unlike Howard he is a republican and he isn’t a redneck when it comes to race issues. Plus he gets on reasonably well with current NZ PM Helen Clark and doesn’t think much of his immediate successor as PM Jenny Shipley. When Shipley was defeated by Clark in the 1999 election, Bolger publicly congratulated Clark!
As for Kirk I think he’s definitely right-wing on economic matters, but he’s more socially liberal. Like others who fit that description he too could well be pissed off with Howard’s social conservatism and Howard’s “George Bush ass-licking” foreign policy.
Hey Glen
You impotent weasel!!!
I saw that you wrote on the blog last night (after I went to bed) that I should be reported to the ACCC because I charge my Liberal & National voting clients more than I charge my Labor voting clients when providing financial advice.
Can I tell you now, that I can charge whateva the hell I like when giving financial advice, and its then up to the client whether they want to proceed with my advice or tell me to go get stuffed.
The fact is that my Liberal & National voting client’s, just like there idols in Canberra, cant managed their finances and need a good, intellegent Labor man in to help them out, and will pay whateva the f**k they need for my expert advice.
I thought you Lib knobs believed in a free market economy. Or are you just a wannabe commie.
BTW obviously you don’t know what the hell you are talking about anyway, cos the governing authority of the Financial industry is ASIC not ACCC.
True, it doesn’t matter what manure the Coalition serves, he eats all of it, and then asks for more.
Anthony, my first name is Glen. Just so you know.
Phil Jacques, looks a slightly askcew type of batsman in his style. Not like nearly all ozzie batsman for the last 20 years. Is his style, somewhat licking lips Ruddite ? Is he the future or a footnote ?
I think average for the summer of 89
You’ll find out that Glen keeps the fact content of his posts to a bare minimum.
This is what it’s coming down to…
“Former Opposition Leader John Hewson lost his voice during the 1993 campaign — and then lost the election.”
Okay, so there’s a bit of hope for the tories… thank you Mischa Shubert – you lightweight you!
“Can Kevin keep up?”
http://www.theage.com.au/news/federal-election-2007-news/can-kevin-keep-up/2007/11/08/1194329366045.html
AKA “Poison Dwarf Jr”
At some level, it doesn’t actually matter if the charges leveled in the latest Labor advert are true (though they are). This is the pure (evil, but worthwhile) Karl Rove strategy – attack your opponent’s strongest points. If the Coalition is perceived as being strong on economics, then go after economics ruthlessly. I reckon this ad, or some version of it, will be running through to polling day.
On principle one should always be wary of “financial advisers from the West”. The advice is usually to buy in polluting start up gold mines or guaranteed interest schemes.
Isn’t everything in life buyer beware
More broken homes and fewer babies … lower fertility rate under Labor. This is from Howard on PM. He has flipped!
As Kayne West would say
“John Howard hates working families”
Glen is obviously part of a Liberal Party Cult, and needs to be de-programmed, to become a normal discerning human being again.
Anybody here have any experience in de-programming people involved in a cult, Glen really needs your help, he is a very sad case indeed.
derek corbett, it’s kind of sad to watch the unravelling of one of our senior rodent citizens, don’t you think?
Why am I suddenly feeling sorry for Glen ? You chaps are going in hard on him today !
Maybe the police should charge Howard with – Obtaining benefit by deception.
Thanks, Lindsay and Glen
Oh and I think Tabitha should be a candidate for de-programming too.
I wonder if Tabitha is really Glen trying to express the feminine side of his personality?
@712 – oh well, all is not lost; just ask Danna “we’re aborting ourselves out of existence” Vale. The Muslims will make up for the babies.
Firstly, Dazzamack of Perth i stand corrected about ASIC instead of ACCC, i was wrong about that and happy to admit it. Obviously you are allowed to charge what you want but to charge people more based on their political beliefs is a little low in my books.
I never said all people had to charge the same amounts like a Communist country and i am a free market capitalist, but i still think it is a shame you hate people with right wing beliefs so much that you’d deliberately charge them more than if they said good things about the ALP and Mr Rudd.
What if they vote democrat, or independent or green?
Do they get a low fee too?
I don’t think Tories would engage in such low based business practices but to each is own.
Oh and just so you know i don’t think you need to engage in personal vicious attacks on people to get your point across, it only demeans you to say such things to people on here.
Dazzamack of Perth – “You impotent weasel!!!”
By the way i am not impotent and i am not a weasel, i’d have to be a bloody smart weasel to type on a computer wouldn’t I.
The more desperate the government gets, the more moronic Glen acts.
Will we get a peak at AC Nielsen tonight? Will be v.interesting.
passthepopcorn, I’m not derek but I can answer that question: nope, not sad at all! I love it, makes me more bloodthirsty!
Can babelfish translate weasel?
ESJ 710
Did you know that over 90% of Financial adviser in WA are Liberal voters… so when you knock financial advisers, you are knocking all your stinking Lib mates.
BTW – I have never sold an inappropriate product and never had a complaint, so don’t ever elude that I am dodgy or we are gonna have a problem.
“i am not a weasel, i’d have to be a bloody smart weasel to type on a computer wouldn’t I.” Well we do have a rodent for PM, so anything is possible.
dunno, EStj, but we might get a peek.
signed
spelling police
714 [Anybody here have any experience in de-programming people involved in a cult, Glen really needs your help, he is a very sad case indeed.]
It appears a good election loss would be the surest way to fix the problem.
“Anybody here have any experience in de-programming people involved in a cult, Glen really needs your help”
he just needs a girlfriend.
Glen @ 271 – How can you believe that the Libs have a monopoly on right wing beliefs? There are plenty of people in the Liberal Party who are well left of plenty of people in the ALP. So much so, that I once considered joining the Libs because so many in the ALP are so right wing.
Matthew Sykes @ 716 “Why am I suddenly feeling sorry for Glen?…”
well, let me guess: You have pity on the under-Dog?
ptp @728: Thanks. I resisted the temptation, but it’s nice to see some other cops on the beat.
I admit I was drunk at the time.
election loss… girlfriend… or cricket bats… something will work!
Im glad to see General Wenck being referred to so often. Hitler famously kept telling his staff in the bunker that General Wenck was coming to save Berlin from the Red Army. And we all know how well that worked out. As our slimy vermin-like PM is often compared to Hitler (similar racist policies, contempt for truth, crushing dissent, small man syndrome) the reference is very apt. But will Howard allow all his colleagues to be killed off by the Red Army in the pursuit of an impossible victory? Or will he use firebreaks?
Nath you need manners.
El Nino you are correct still on the face of it there are more right wingers in the Coalition than in Labor but you are quite correct with your statement. Well then obviously no but I am sure Dazzamack of Perth would charge more for a Family First, One Nation or National Party supporter too. Nevertheless one could argue the ALP is no longer centre-left considering how far to the right they’ve gone since Rudd took over.
Are the girlfriends you guys speak of any good?
ESJ @ 723 – I think ACnielsen is fortnightly, which means next week.
Glen, nobody needs manners around here. Only SENSE.
Glen, actually they have made a microscopic move ‘left’ since Rudd took over. Bomber Beazley was just slightly more liberal than Genghis Khan.
Howard has obviously assumed the reins of Gaffer-In-Chief as of today, pushing aside Abbott, Turnbull et al.
This can only be the start of such wonderful lines!!!
I think Howard should be impeached before the election.
Brownwyn obviously then you think its ok to be as crude as Nath but because he is ’sensible’ (left wing) then that makes it ok.
I think we can have debates on here without resorting to personal attacks or extremely crude statements, we should be above this quite frankly.
“impeached ” is so American. I think he should be enmangoed.
I wouldn’t pin my hopes too much on a poll – their usual moe fluctuations are going to drive you all nuts. Lets hope for a moe to the Labor side – just see if the Rodent starts eating himself.
Things are going from bad to worse for John Howard.
Fancy making his “I didn’t apologise for the rates rise” the lead story! It’s just crazy politics. I wonder what Arthur must be thinking on the sidelines. He must have his head in his hands.
Now the voters will think he really doesn’t care and doesn’t take responsibility.
At least with the apology they thought they received yesterday they might have thought he cares a little about how it impacts on families. Now they know he doesn’t. It’s rare to see such inept campaigning.
I’m glad Glen is here. He keeps us on our toes and makes the debate much livelier!
nath… I think it’s time Glen read your ‘harden the f**k up’ rant again…
737 [Well then obviously no but I am sure Dazzamack of Perth would charge more for a Family First, One Nation or National Party supporter too.]
No Glen, I’m sure he is a fine upstanding man of principle who charges mates rates to certain individuals at certain times for very good reasons.
Glen, you’re right, no need to resort to personal attacks. But you’re definitely on the wrong blog, buddy, if that’s what you want.
Oh, and why aren’t you practising what you preach?!
I think all debate should be conducted with dignity and civility (and good humour)!
Glen, you generally keep it out of the gutter (except when you resort to your most social-Darwinian moments).
Garrett and Slash-And-Burnbull set a good example for us all today.
PS “SORRY – I’M NOT APOLOGISING! – JW Howard” should be printed on t-shirts as of today!!!
Maybe Glen should be enmangoed?
Glen does make the debate more interesting – and he handles all the sh*t he gets with considerable grace.
Does anyone know whether there actually is an ACNielsen tomorrow? I thought it was fortnightly, but could be wrong.
Glen does handle it well, but then again maybe he’s a masochist. I wouldn’t hang around the Bolt blog so he must be getting something out of it.
May be a Nielson online poll – they have been sliiping a few out recently to test their methodology.
Dp whatever from Perth
Financial planners are vulgar ignorant buffoons however they vote.
I am Bronwyn, i was sick of getting into slanging matches with people i should have been above that and it demeaned me as much as those personally attacking me. So now i only want to debate on substance and get away from making personal attacks on people just because i disagree with them on a political point. I think we could all do that and we’d all have a much better experience on here. Though its sad most of you still want to engage in such unflattering methods.
Its one thing to say harden up John, but seriously we can debate politics without sounding like Tony Abbott or Mark Latham.
Glen, Abott and Latham are dandies compared to me.
Sorry the hardest word for PM: Gillard
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22724830-12377,00.html
LOL. If this isn’t a free kick I don’t know what is.
What about a t-shirt saying
“Being a lying Rodent means never having to say you’re sorry….even when you say sorry…’?
passthepopcorn @ 715
Er, no. One would normally extend sympathy and compassion, but this is a particularly virulent creature that has been stalking the manor for years. It’s a Rogue Rodent and, hard as it sounds, there is only one solution. Exterminate.
Where is that redneck Mal Brough? When is someone going to ask him thsi question: If your intervention’s primary aim was to reduce child abuse in Aboriginal communities, how do you explain that there has not been a single arrest, let alone charge, let alone conviction since you sent the armed forces and jackboot policemen in?
PS I hear Mal is hated by his advisers because he is incapable of taking advice.
Glen: Here is a helpful tip. You may well be able to mount a more persuasive argument if you could produce some links to articles backing up your contentions.
And please do not use propaganda as links.
Nath i am glad you aren’t on my side.
And i come here to debate because there are hardly any tories with the balls to debate 50 left wingers (or undecideds) on this blog, if i didn’t you’d just trash Howard all day long. This way we can have a debate, and i serve a purpose too. I stop you from attacking each other.
762 – In fairness to Brough – the intervention wasn’t his idea. He was just ‘following orders’.
I’d buy that T-Shirt Gerr.
What about a t-shirt saying
“Just saying your sorry means never having to really apologize’….?
Help me here…
Glen: Howard deserves to be trashed, as does anyone who follows his neoconservative principles.
762 [Where is that redneck Mal Brough?]
He was last seen on Bribie Island having a BBQ with John and Hyacinth.
Asanque i shall in future.
Who’ll be on the 7:30 report???
El Nino. Im guessing that after the Annihilation, that Nuremberg defence is going to get a huge workout. The Rodent made us do it!!
What about on a t-shirt
‘Being a weazel means never having to apologize to a lying rodent particularly when you’re already both’….?
Turnball behind in Wentworth?
If the Green vote is something between 10-15%, Labor will win that seat, because George Newhouse is getting Green preferences.
Glen & Nath,
Just as an aside, i have a friend whose second cousin on one side is Tony Abbott, and her second cousin on the other side is married to Mark Latham. Wonder if they know they are related!
“and i serve a purpose too. I stop you from attacking each other.”
Oh Glen! But we love attacking each other. You damned killjoy.
Besides, who anointed you to be our Saviour?
Kiwi @ 701 – Thanks for the info!
Mal Brough: campaigning hard in Longman? The Liberals are worried about holding on to it apparently.
HH – I suspect this apparent Galaxy is already taking preferences into account. There is no way Turnbull would be behind Newhouse on primaries.
So, does anyone have any opinions on whether or not the dear leader of the Rattus Crew use the S word in his concession speech??
HH – the number of Green first preferences is inversely proportionate to the predictability of the subsequent preference flow.
Bronwyn im not your saviour, i am your punching bag, you all love to take out your aggression and hatred of Howard on me, and i do help you from infighting amongst each other. One time Adam and LTEP were getting smashed by some other bloggers and then when i came in that stopped and they were on to me in a flash.
Speaking of T-shirts has anyone seen the advertisement on the home page of our pollbludger. Not Kevin Rudd T-Shirt. William I’m surprised. Tsk Tsk.
Mal Brough’s kid to Mrs Mal. “I wish dad would go back to Canberra”. True story.
So here I am thinking that I will start planning out the election night – you know, who to watch, what to drink etc.
Looked at the respective lineups, ABC has its excellent coverage with Mr Green, our eminent psephmaster, Tony Jones and Kerry O’Brien. Guests will be Julia Gillard and Nick Minchin. Not a bad watch that.
Nine have the usual suspects – Ray Martin and Laurie Oakes with guests Wayne Swan, Robert Ray, Michael Kroger and Peter Van Onselen. Not bad, but a little dry.
Lets see…Seven have..
Kochie, Mel and Andrew O’Keefe.
Er…I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again….WTF??
Michael, of course you’re right: Labor will only win Wentworth on Green preferences. It’d be a monumental upset, but not impossible! At the very least, it forces the Liberals to put in extra resources they could have used elsewhere.
That was a horrendous article for John Howard. He has given the ALP a huge free kick and probably doesn’t even realise it. Where are his advisers for heaven’s sake? Is he running this campaign on his own? He’s making mistake after mistake.
The next 24 hours will see Kevin Rudd and co give John Howard a trashing.
Already we see the feedback on the blogs is running hot in contempt of his apparent backdown.
I just can’t see how he can win this election now.
It may be even worse than his worst nightmares.
Funny new game thingy,
http://www.subversivegames.com/portal/games/scumbag07/
ESJ 756
Point taken. I do have bafoonish qualities, but I have to make the best of it.
At least people pay for my bafoonish opinions.
Hahahaha…I’m sorry. I shouldn’t really laugh, but it’s hard not to. You’re really a glutton for punishment, Glen. Why? Why do you care about us so much? We’re just lefties, aren’t we?!
Heisenberg stated that it is impossible to determine simultaneously and with unlimited accuracy the position and momentum of an appology, but due to Rodent’s brains being so small, the Uncertainty Principle was intended to apply only to non-core sorrys.
Re #786 Yes i agree Richard, things are going rater badly for Team Rattus, the only thing I think that can work for him now is his advertising campaign. Hopefully the non-news watchers will not be fooled.
Ruawake. Those poor little buggers might be seeing alot of a really pissed off Daddy. He’s only in by 5.3% and “if the swing is on in Queensland as the polls indicate to date, Longman will probably fall to Labor.”
Jacques out stumped for 100.
to 784:
Bugger, i was hoping and praying that Dolly would be on the ABC coverage as well since he is such a safe seat and all. Still, seeing Minchin’s face and Gillard’s as the results come in will have much entertainment value.
What would really top off the night is if Anthony Green has computer problems brought about by the size of the swing. Maybe he has a Dell laptop with the potentially exploding batteries!!
Hmm, Coalition wipeout, underlined by blazing computer.
Danger, Danger John Howard, This Does Not Compute!!!
Rank fantasy i know, but what imagery that would be!!
It’s not to late for the “Libs” to throw him under the bus and continually reverse over him!
784 -Grooski: I heard Anna Coren will also be on 7’s Election Spesh.
Sad.
Has anyone heard if Sky News will be doing an exit poll on the election? They did on a couple of state elections..
Having read just about all the reporting since the interest rate announcement and studied Possum’s excellent work, this is my conclusion. The Libs juggernaut is chugging up the hill chasing Labor, but despite having most of the MSM pushing their shit heap along, they can’t catch the leaders. Considering the negative effect of the rate rise, there no way the Libs can increase their primary vote enough to pass Labor. Howard is running around like a demented spin doctor, saying the most ridiculous things. Hopefully the next poll (AC N?) will be the last nail in the coffin.
I’ve had too many disappointments to count my chickens just yet.
A labor victory appears likely – but there’s more than 2 weeks to go.
From our perspective it all looks bad for Howard and Co – but what about the gerneral public?
Mark Riley has spun this Howie’s way!
viva 7!
9 have had six news stories out and none on the election yet.
This will blow over, like all the other so called gaffes.
Just a waste of time really.
“but what about the general public”
Saying “I’m not sorry about interest rate rises” sounds pretty bad and was going down a treat on commercial talkback this afternoon!
How did he spin it Howard’s way?
The Wentworth poll is going to hurt them.
Most pundits have been predicting Malcolm will hold it comfortably.
This could have a significant effect on “win expectations”. Add in another poor nationwide poll early next week and sit back and watch the punters abandon the Coalition in droves.
Ashley – was there any talk of the wentworth poll on the news tonight?
Mark Riley was hardly negative of Howard’s remarks noting that Howie was sorry about the stolen generation but not apologising because his government was not responsible. Riley also said unemployment figures were a plus for Howard.
Still have the ABC but so far so good this will be a blow over.
Sorry, haven’t been watching the news. It shouldn’t be surprising that Turnbull is losing though… I suspect it will be pretty close on Nov 24. We might get to hear the exact poll figures on Lateline.
Glen – it may, unless it makes the front page of the papers tomorrow. I think anyone who was dithering who hears those comments is going to be quited p*ssed off
Geln watched a different Channel 7 News to me and we’re both in Victoria. I thought they made Howard look silly over the ’sorry’ affair. They even linked it to reconciliation. Now 9 has it on.
Make that Glen.
“9 have had six news stories out and none on the election yet”
Why would this be? Because the election is no longer interesting. People have tuned out. Only the politics tragics on this site care about it.
That is very bad news for the party that has a lot of catching up to do, with only 15 days to go, and very good news for the party that is way in front.
The betting markets today have not moved a millimetre. It’s as if we are in suspended animation until November 24, when the coup de grace will be delivered.
Turnbull will not lose Wentworth and Howard will not lose bennelong.
The problem Glen is that this just reinforces that Howard will not take responsibilty for anything and 7 and now 9 indicated that beautifully.
Glen watches the news through rodent coloured glasses.
Glen – thats all hubris – admit it!
Hear Hear.
You can say it until you are blue in the face, Thommo, but that won’t make it happen.
Hear Hear was for Thommo by the way.
No Brissy what it shows is how rusted on and biased we all are, maybe we see what we want to see?
Howard on PM is sounding like a loony!!!
“Labor will lead to divorces! Fertility will dry up!”
Im still watching cricket on Ch9
I have to paraphrase Hyacinth who put it so much better than me:
Howard, as the most successful politician of all, has to make all sorts of promises every day to all sorts of interest parties. Of course making promises does not mean that he will keep them.
So if you want to influence people you need to know what buttons to push and what to promise. After you achieve what you want, it doesn’t matter what you promised anyway.
Words are used for this purpose. Words are very powerful and you can make them mean anything you want.
You don’t get to be the most successful politican by accident! Geez…..some people…
BV where is your link?
Evidence please? No evidence, no credibility.
What the hell every happened to aspirational nationalism?
On the ABC Radio program PM – today’s link isn’t up yet but will be here:
http://www.abc.net.au/pm/
Sometimes there is a defining point at which the fortunes of political parties change. I believe Howard’s statement today that he wasn’t apologising for the rate rise, he was just sorry that it had happened, is a defining point which will see the end of his political life. What an arrogant prick – what does he think? – is he afraid every borrower will sue him? Every public relations outfit in the world now will tell you that, if you stuff up, apologise quickly and sincerely. Howard’s arrogance knows no bounds. I can’t wait to see the removal trucks carting their stuff out of Kirribilli. I may even turn up for the event.
Possum got a run in the courier Mail today. Pity that what was written about saying sorry has been superseded.
http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,22721593-5013650,00.html
As I’ve discussed here before, the very informative website Possums Pollytics has a chart which matches Labor’s primary with recent rate rises and finds a correlation, as does the Stanford University academic Simon Jackman…
Howard’s apology yesterday – “I am sorry about (the impact of the rate rise) and I regret the additional burden” – was the least he could do, but this Beattie-style sorry is more likely aimed at stopping any further vote losses than a realistic expectation of clawing people back.
811
Spiros Says:
November 8th, 2007 at 6:16 pm
……the election is no longer interesting. People have tuned out. Only the politics tragics on this site care about it.
….
I think there’s a lot in what you say, Spiros. This process seems interminable and a ot of people must be feeling very jaded by now. But relief is not far off and people will vote with a good deal of purpose this time, I’d say.
I think he has turned this into aspirational apologism.
BV – yes, said that earlier. Fertility rates? Divorce rates up under Labor? I said he’d flipped. Strange days, indeed.
Here is the actual quote from Hyacinth:
‘You talk about a whole lot of things when you’re trying to convince people to do things’, Janette told us, ‘but you don’t go back and honour every single one of those unless you have made a firm commitment about it, and John wasn’t into making firm commitments.’ “
aspirational non-core apologism
Glen, here’s a serious policy point you can discuss, you policy wonk you! Tell us… what was aspirational nationalism and what happened to it?
Fertility rates? Has Tabitha been writing his lines for him?
Yep Derek, just catching up on posts – he sounded positively crazed! He was dropping words too. Not sure what the point of the speech was supposed to be, but whatever it was, I’m pretty sure it failed…
“John wasn’t into making firm commitments”
Especially to Peter Costello.
The Smirker is going to be one angry man after this electio.
liberal ads on melb tv defending old stew in Corangamite. the polling must be bad out there.
I reckon the birthrate will rise in August 2008 after all the parties in a couple of weeks.
Old Stew isn’t a bad bloke, actually.
But if he is trouble then the Libs are in huge trouble in Victoria.
http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,22580247-5000117,00.html
We offer a secure future – John Howard
It is actually the basis of many of the Coalition’s policies John Rocket.
I know you don’t like Howard or his policies but the Tories have released policies that fit well into the model of aspirational nationalism.
“Keeping Interest Rates at a record low” wasn’t a firm commitment by John Howard.
It was a non-firm commitment. So why should Howard apologise for it. Don’t people know how to read his lips and understand his words and hear the whistle. Geez…some people…voters…
“aspirational nationalism” is a sh*t sandwich, which, glen, you are welcome to feast upon whenever you desire.
What do you reckon the rattus will do when his ship finally sinks around 9pm on the 24th? Will he cry? God please let him cry.
And is it too much to hope for him to start up that wailing they do at Palestinian street funerals?
The only thing I can see in this link to aspirational nationalism is a number of agenda items… but an agenda isn’t a policy Glen. It is funny that in your response to a request for policy detail… you linked me to the Herald-Sun website… says it all really about the right of this country!
BV.
True. Have no idea what it meant, but it sure failed … fertility rates! Come in spinner. Start the jokes … get set … ready .. GO!
Does he realise what he has done?
The sorry statement was simply an aspirational expression of the idea of an apology to commit to non-binding, purely commitmentless expressions of sorrow for something which he was in no way responsible.
I don’t know why you’re all being so hard on the fluffy little rodent.
Your sick Betamax.
Life will be so much better in 2 weeks time after which I will never again be subjected to the ludicrous Howard weasel speak.
And betamax, yes, he will definitely cry
Ruawake, in that event there will be more liberals in the future – it’ll be that side of politics being screwed by the electorate.
9pm? I’m guessing at the latest 6:30
Not half as sick as aspirational apologist Howard.
“795
red wombat Says:
November 8th, 2007 at 6:00 pm
It’s not to late for the “Libs” to throw him under the bus and continually reverse over him!”
Indeed, red, as in the penultimate scene in the classic Oz film, “The Cars That Ate Paris”.
$ubPrime $weetie, demented at the wheel screaming:
“Look at me now! I can drive…I CAN DRIVE!!”
Has anyone seen LTEP lately? Or has LTEP morphed into someone else?
If he loses bennelong there’s a chance… but he’ll do his best to be dignified… at least for the first couple of weeks. Realisticly, I see Mr. Howard dedicating his remaining years to listening to talk back radio and ringing in getting all angry if anyone says anything bad about his years as PM.
It’d be fun to get him nominated to Branson’s Council of Elders… by god, he’d destroy that forum pretty quickly!
Howard won’t cry if he loses, he can take defeat like a man, not like Malcolm Fraser.
glen, mock malcolm all you like but when he was PM he made lil johhny shake in his boots.
AH but Glen, what about you? Will you cry?
Yeah Glen like at the Rugby World Cup in Sydney when Howard nearly threw the cup at the English Captain. Talk about dignity and grace. Talk about taking defeat like a Man. You are in La la land. Howard is an absolute disgrace…
Howie was very close to tears on the 7:30 report before the election when he was begging the electorate to vote for him so he could retire lol.
As much as Malcolm behaved like an unprincipled opportunistic rat, Howard has managed to climb infinitely higher on the rodent ladder of shame than Malcolm could ever aspire to.
No because should that happen i shall say “Serenity Now”.
Anyway i could handle a loss as long as people like Turnbull, Brough, Pyne oh and Keenan as i helped in his win of 2004 aren’t defeated.
I would be really shattered if we lost by a large margin and lost several talented MPs and Ministers, but i wouldn’t cry.
The question is would you cry Bronwyn if the ALP lost 5 elections in a row?
I’ll be a man and say it.
Yes i will definitely cry if labor lose 5 in a row.
Alex McDonnel: “what does he think? – is he afraid every borrower will sue him?”
You nailed what I was half thinking. For me, that’s why rattus weaselling out of an apology was so utterly pathetic. The sorry was such a pissweak, who-cares act in the first place. He can’t even own up to a measly bloody interest rate rise without backing down for fear of being — held accountable? sullying the pages of history? sued?
He’s a man in a public crapper who won’t take a measly old shit for fear of other people smelling it.
It was a wonderful display of that most rattusian of characteristic — the drive to save his own spotted, spineless, sorry-assed ass.
Bronwyn, like your Dear Leader, Glen, doesn’t answer unlikely hypotheticals.
Yes, I would. I’d bawl my eyes out, get drink a gallon of cheap plonk, sober up, deal with the hangover, then get on with the next election.
It’s only politics. And I’ve got you to stop me from harming others. Thank you, punching bag.
well spoken, betamax – hell, with a spiel like that… you should call yourself VHS… you’re a winner!
Glen @ 860 – I can agree with the suggestion that Turnbull has something to offer but what’s the attraction with Pyne?
Well if the Libs win there will be no tears from you lot. Why? Cause your used to losing. A Lib win is still very much on the cards….this race is by no means over like some of you claim it to be.
Thanks for the insight, Thommo. It was certainly enlightening.
These people (Brough, Turnbull, Pyne) are the future of the Liberal Party if we lost them we’d really be up ‘%$#@ creek without a paddle’.
Latest from my source in the ALP
Cowan – polling strong
Swan – polling strong
Hasluck – polling strong
Stirling – too close to call. Labor ahead
Brand – too close to call. Labor ahead
Kalgoorlie – Very much in play
Moore – In play. Washer has lost interest in campaigning / Burgess is well liked
Forrest – In play
Canning – In play
Forget the Rest
Overall swing from internal WA polling 8% to Labor
BTW, Stirling Times has been refusing to run any positive articles about Tinley/Labor or negative articles about Keenan/Libs, and even advertising for Labor is getting rejected by the newspaper… so much for democracy in this country. Typical shady liberals.
Ahh, Thommo’s mum didn’t take the Bindeez away from the playroom fast enough… not his fault really.
What is it with Lib supporters and spelling?
Your. You’re.
Sound the same, but they’re not!
Glen, I’m sorry but you’re not going to have Pyne to pine over. He’s gone. His electirate seems to have decided he’s on the nose over the last few weeks…
Thommo
Do have have any evidence to suggest a Liberal win? Or is it just hope?
#825Alex, what slogan are you wearing on your T-shirt? Let us know if you are and we’ll join you!
John Rocket you are a disgrace, you should be ashamed of yourself.
Don’t you have anything to say that doesn’t involve personal abuse towards other posters?
Glen How’s Brough’s nuclear power plant on Bribie Island going? Heard anything yet?
867
“Thommo Says:
November 8th, 2007 at 6:53 pm
Well if the Libs win there will be no tears from you lot. Why? Cause your used to losing”
I think the LNP are pretty good at losing too. Over the last 5 or so years, they have lost every election they have been up for except for the Federal. That means there are more liberals experienced in losing.
I remember a big loss – 1993 and one of Ricky johnson’s campaign workers physically attacked me that night.
Get used to it!
Glen, I agree that Turnbull, if he survives will probably be part of the Party’s new direction, but I wouldn’t pin too much on Pyne – he’s a dud.
Sure, his ability to win preselection by getting the numbers over a sitting member was quite a feat for a guy of only around 25, but apart from counting the numbers for Costello, he’s done nothing.
The fact that his colleagues overlooked him for so long is a testament to what they think of him.
I’ve been outted, damn, yes, I admit it all… I am a disgrace… and your point is Glen?
As far as i know steve there isn’t a nuclear power station planned for Bribie Island?
So why are you spreading Green/ALP hot air?
How hypocritical for Rudd to trash Howard for negative campaigning when Rudd does this sort of stuff to Bribie Island with nuclear power.
Of course Glen is right, losing a lot of talent from the front bench would leave the Coalition our in the cold for a very long time. One thing the Liberals have to do is bring in some first class moderate talent – along the lines of David Cameron’s Zac Goldsmith – to revitalise the party. The Liberal Party desperately need to update itself.
no no no, losing front bench ‘talent’ would enable them to regroup far more quickly. We have to hope that the frontbench remains largely intact so they can spend the next decade working out which one of them can pee higher!
881 [As far as i know steve there isn’t a nuclear power station planned for Bribie Island?]
Glen, I can’t understand this newspaper article. Any ideas?
http://bayjournal.com.au/joomla/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=574&Itemid=42
And Glen, I just don’t know the explanation for this but it seems to be Pyne’s Christian conservatives who are the most upset with him.
It is in the interest of democracy, that if Labor wins, the Coalition rebuild and refashion into a viable alternative.
I don’t want 11 years of any government in power.
Win local news Sunny Coast – Debbie Blumel Labor candidate for Fairfax gets a great hit on interest rates – Liberal candidates “unavailable for comment”.
862 Betamax……. phew! Words jumped off the page! Fantastic…am going to miss all this when it is over.
“We offer a secure future” – John Howard.
Shouldn’t that read: “We offer non-core aspirational aggregate impression incentivational futucurity” – Jon Howard.
Local Brisbanee Libs are now advertising on commercial TV.
The AEC has an election countdown clock at http://aec.gov.au/
Add 12 hours to the time shown for the approx time our own dear Anthony will call the election for the forces of good.
Speaking of Chris Pyne … can somebody tell me if either major party has any gay/lesbian MPs or candidates that are out of the closet?
Your dreaming runawake if you think Labor has the slightest hope of clinching fairfax.
Thommo
I live in the electorate. I think I probably know better than you.
887 [Liberal candidates “unavailable for comment”]
Is there something new there Ruawake? I rarely hear from these seat warmers from one year to the next.
Not buying the whole ABBOTT “This is a good government” but that Labour is still well ahead with the boom still going BOOM. Indictes that something is rotten at the base of the tree.
Moore is in play??? God. I hope you’re correct, I just don’t believe it.
Kalgoorlie, I can appreciate. I can certainly understand Canning. It’s actually a mortgage belt seat now. To believe it, you only have to take a drive down the Kwinana Freeway. Mandurah is part of Canning, so it’s entirely plausible that it could be one of the shockers of the night for the Libs.
I live in Hasluck and Stuart Henry is out-junkmailing Sharryn 2-1. Sign of trouble?
Really? Well I was born there lived there for 24 years and only left a few months ago. I think I know it just as well as you mate. Labor got no chance and I think you know it. Fisher on the other hand could be a chance Caroline Hutchinson is going to cause some problems there.
#846 Thommo Says:
“Your sick Betamax.”
Yes he is, but i liiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiike it!!
Baressi (Deakin) knows he is in a fight. Just saw an ad for him on 9.
Thommo
The boundaries of Fairfax have changed. Did you notice how house prices have fallen? Do you think mortgage stress is not affecting Peregian Springs and Twin Waters?
The invisible man Somlyay is in trouble.
Gary Bruce 900
I spoke to my Labor insider in WA and she said that news coming from Victoria is that Deakin is going to Labor
Runawake I think people that can afford to live in those places are not feeling too much stress. I guess we will have to see on election night. Im not to sure where the house prices are falling I recently sold my house there and made a killing. I own a block of land there as well and the value is going up and up and up.
Very few folks live in 1820’s Neoclassical Town houses. The target market for the libs is Springfield Simpsons USA aka Aussie Jon home loans will save u. In the great miners strikes of the past.The enemy was not the fellow who lived in the highest house on the hill. But the fool you stumbled, sweated and pushed the cart up the tunnel with.
” ‘892
Betamax Says:
November 8th, 2007 at 7:15 pm
Speaking of Chris Pyne … can somebody tell me if either major party has any gay/lesbian MPs or candidates that are out of the closet?’ ”
Penny Wong is all i know.
Thommo, the problem for the Rattus Crew isn’t the people who can afford to live in those places, its the people who, now, can’t afford to live in those places. Or anywhere else for that matter as it’s not only mortgage holders who are under stress, but renters as well.
It’s not a nice thought, having to sell your house and then piss any equity you may have built up into someone else’s pocket in rent. If you can find a place to rent that is!!
Anyone else been notice the desperation and pleading showing up in Howard interviews this week? He is becoming even more shrill and childish in his remarks.
907
Let It End Says:
November 8th, 2007 at 7:38 pm
Anyone else been notice the desperation and pleading showing up in Howard interviews this week? He is becoming even more shrill and childish in his remarks.
Things are not going to plan action is needed says
Travis Bickle
Imacca im sure they are big problems in the city. But elsewhere there really isn’t any mortgage stress or rental stress for that matter. Alot of the stress out there is due to bad spending habits. When I see the Wax farmer out there saying that working familes are doing it tougher than ever I cant help but laugh. I work in financial sevices and the people who default on their loans are the people who have bad spending habits. The government cant be to blame for everything.
In Adelaide, I’ve noticed that in all the electorates except Boothby the party posters all just show the Labor candidate. In Boothby, the Nicole Cornes ones are often accompanied by Rudd’s New Leadership ones. This is because Boothby was eminently winnable until the celebrity candidate became the biggest loser and Labor is trying to get us to vote for Rudd despite her. Are the Rudd posters in other states helping out other lame ducks?
Penny Wong is all there is.
I notice that the enrolment in Kalgoorlie has dropped since 2004. My suspicion was that this was caused by disfranchisement of Indigenous voters by the changes to the Electoral Act. But enrolments in Lingiari, Leichhardt and Grey are all up, Lingiari strongly so. Does anyone have another explanation for the drop in Kalgoorlie?
Thommo
Look at the AEC site, last election there were about 400 people who voted at the Peregian Springs booth. Now there are 8,000 houses – all worth less than they cost to build.
The Sunny Coast is negative equityville. It will show in the polls.
Just spoke to the Senator, gloom in HQ – ACN Nielsen tomorrow 55-45
Megan – 875 I think my T shirt would read ‘ Begone you rat, begone! I think our Sydney-based posters should organise the Howard farewell at Kirribilli.
909
Thommo Says:
If you really work were u say u do. U would no that the economy in most oecd economies has been on autopilot for the last 10 years cept 4 obivious old school trotskies such as the USA. Howard and Costello are ushers not directors…
ESJ, Why the gloom?
Michael Keenan ad during Ch 10 News in Perth.
I’ll take that ESJ.
Antony and Sol on now.
I think I am starting to work out Howard’s re-election strategy now.
Ir’s quite simple really. Make Labor think that they can be successful in all 148 seats (except the 2 independents) and stretch their campaigning resources so much that the libs can just sneak over the line with the support of the 2 independents.
The only trouble with this is, Labor just might pull it off with the help of Howard.
SBS is reporting that Peter Dutton (assistant treasurer) also told his colleagues in September that there would be no rate rise in November…
is that hubris or what?
surely no one can imagine that Howard would have gone to an election actually expecting a rate rise…that would have made a lot of sense…
so so much for his strategic thinking…and i hope that costello and dutton sucked him in: Cossies ultimate revenge, maybe
and when will the MSM pick up on these “gaffes” and splash them across the front pages?
they are giving this mob unbelievable breaks….
And yeah…howard is sounding …ratty….
and btw, crikey were running story that pyne is doing numbers for costello to roll howard immediately on Lib return if they fall across the line…so when will the media challenge other blowhards in the Cabinet, ie Ruddock etc, as to whether they expect to remain in the Cabinet for much longer…
boy, we’ve got lazy journalists in this joint..
I dont know where your getting your figures from runawake. Home prices on the sunny coast have done nothing but rise.
Ah Antony – bringing reality back to poll analysis.
Actually even Sol was pretty on the money.
No wonder the ALP have gagged Newhouse he is a terrible media performer, when he refused to give his own opinion on the pulp mill, you know this man is a ’stooge’.
We’ll we all know who Antony Green and Sol will vote for at the coming election lol.
Loved this post on Tim dunlop’s site. Saw another one somewhere just as good.
{”Well, I am sorry. But saying I’m sorry doesn’t mean I’m apologising. An apology is one way of saying sorry, but saying sorry is not a different way of offering an apology, okay? Got that? I mean, people should actually listen to what I say in light of a more post-modern, deconstructionist fashion, perhaps even bone up on a little situationist philosophy as context rather than simply ascribe a literal meaning to every single word … Heavens above, I do mean what I’m saying, it’s just that what I’m saying may not necessarily mean what I’m saying when other people take what I’m saying to mean what they think they want me to say when I’m saying something completely different which I may not have actually said at all.
It’s all very simple really, but look, the big issue here … blah blah, union bosses, blah blah, lower under us, blah blah …” }
Ill be glad if Pyne loses his seat. He is so bloody shrill when ive seen him on programs like Lateline. Just wants to keep talking over whoever is his “opponent” and sprout any old drivel simply so they don’t get a chance to say anything. This is really annoying to a viewer whop actually wants to hear both sides of a debate.
I have often wondered if he was the gay LNP minister referred to weeks ago when there were rumors about one that had been harassing staffers, and visiting gay clubs in Sydney? I have a few gay friends who are great, but this guy strikes me as a possible nasty old queen.
SOMLYAY, Alexander (LIB) 1.05
BLUMEL, Debbie (ALP) 7.75
ruawake, we’re on the same side but you’re a bit of a gee-up artist. A month ago you reckoned you had some info on Mal Brough so hot that you couldn’t post it here and that you would only send it to emailers. I recall Adam saying “que pasa” at the time. Never arrived did it?
So Debbie B. tees off on Interest Rates on Chickentown TV. Hardly gonna loosen the The Minister for Golf’s grip on Faifax considering the above board odds is it, mate?
No, it is excellent tactics – let Turnbull take the blame for everything.
According to the Galaxy poll, it seems to be working.
‘I voted for a Weazel and all I got was this lousy t-shirt on my back when the interest rates kicked in’ ?
Frank Calabrese this was obviously in response to Tinley’s ad, things are hotting up in the West.
ESJ 913
How reliable is the 55-45 ACN?
Was it taken before or after the rate hike?
Gloom at HQ? Are you guys tapping out? Hope not. I’m a Labor supporter, but as keen follower of politics, I want to see Howard go down swinging….
ESJ @ 913
Hmm, a 55-45 TPP in ACN tomorrow.
No wonder the Rodent’s been acting senile lately
Rubbish Newhouse is a winner, and a nice jewish boy! Waddawant else? You should be so lucky to have Newhouse representing you, you could do worse….you could have a weazel! Ayy Gevault not a weazel! Spare me with the weazel already!
imacca you got it in one re rumours, subject thereof
ESJ – serious on Neilsen or having a giggle?
Missed 730 – what led it and what did Antony & Sol have to say?
Are we getting weekly ACNs now? ACN tomorrow, Morgan Friday, Galaxy Monday, Newspoll Tuesday – o joy unbounded.
Clarke and Dawe – Ah Garrett he’s an easy target.
Let’s hope everyone learns a lesson, and no one who ever held any strong beliefs when they were in their 20s and 30s ever enters parliament.
“Home prices on the sunny coast have done nothing but rise.” Would be correct until about 2 years ago.
The arse end of the market – Nambour, Burnside may be staying steady but the $500k + market is going backwards.
Same old lines Burgey, Antony pro-Lab, Sol doesn’t know who will win.
@930 Sir Eggo
I’d settle for just Howard swingin…in the breeze….til someone came and cut down his political carcass ….
PM denies apologising for rate rise
Thursday Nov 8 17:20 AEDT
http://news.ninemsn.com.au/minisite/election_article.aspx?id=109795§ionid=6046§ionname=minisiteelection
‘I voted for Kevin and all I got was this lousy t-shirt’?
NAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA!!!
“Ayy Gevault”? What language is that already? It’s Oy gevalt! (”Oh disaster!” in Yiddish).
Pretty good summation Glen.
Kerry asked Antony a question he obviously knew the answer of – on the state polls currently what would be the result on Antony’s calculator. Antony let go a sheepish grin when he said the ALP would win 95 seats.
Howard…………But it’s also fair of me to point out that … a family in which say dad (works) full-time and mum (works) part-time got what, $20 a week out of the last budget in tax cuts?
“I think you’ve got to put that up against the impact of the interest rate rise.”
What he really meant was ….”Youuuu ungrateful bastards”
T-shirt idea no 301
‘ I voted for Howard’ (on the front) ‘May God have mercy on my soul’ (on the back.)
Is there an actual soundbite with JWH saying words to the effect of “I’m not sorry for the interest rate rise”?
If this is the case, why doesn’t JWH just write the bloody Labor ads for them. I can’t believe he would be that stupid.
No, he said “I said I was sorry, I didn’t say I apologise.”
But even this is a piece of hair splitting obfuscation.
Sir Eggo, there is. He boasts, then he says ‘I am NOT sorry for a strong economy I take full responsibility for that’
Anyone who would vote for a character of that calibre deserves summary execution (well they must already be braindead….we would just be saving alot of time and misery)
Is there nothing you don’t know Adam? You need Renaissanceblog.com.
What’s everyone’s problem with Peter Garrett? He is the only politician you can actually trust because you know his intentions are true. Every other politician, both labour and liberal, will do what ever it takes to be PM.
Enemy Combatant
The fact that Mal Brough’s son was living as a street kid in Nambour and then ended up living with a social worker in Glasshouse Mountains is a well known truth. This is because his father kicked him out of the house when he lost his drivers licence.
I am deadly serious about Fairfax as well – look at the swing from newspoll. Where do you think the 13% swing to Labor is occurring?
Barely two weeks to go and nothing much has changed in months.
I actually think it is likely now that both Malcolm Turnbull and John Howard will lose their seats by very small margins. It’ll certainly be very tight.
If the 55-45 is right, and it seems quite likely it will be around that anyway, it is very serious indeed for the Coalition.
Sol and Antony were indicating that it would be a big win for Kevin Rudd.
Queensland may deliver up to 10 seats to Labor alone. Even WA is looking OK for Labor.
85 Labor 62 Coalition 3 independent is my bet.
The momentum is clearly going Kevin Rudd’s way as John Howard flails around changing the campaign theme from one week to the next.
One week the economy is going gangbusters, the next it’s at risk. One week it’s Go for Growth, the next week er.. One day “I’m sorry for the rate rise”, the next day “no I’m not”.
John Howard is really looking more and more like a flustered loser.
It might be a loss of historic proportions.
I can understand why they interview Antony because he knows so much about the polls and politics but doing it every week and with no massive movement in the polls is the same things over and over again.
- State wide swings unheard of in QLD and SA
- National polls predict 5% swing to Lab in WA
- Seats on 8% are really on 2% so large numbers of seats in play
- State wide polls good for Labor
That is what Antony says at every interview, nothing new.
We should have more interviews with past leaders, Fraser, Hawke, Keating, Peacock, Hewson, that would be much more interesting than how little the polls have changed and how as Sol says each week ‘has been a messy week with no major issues cutting in’.
Serenity Now! lol
Howard said ‘he was sorry that there was a rates rise’ Today he said ‘that was not an apology’. I agree, there’s a Labor ad ready-made.
The story still gots some legs
Sorry Howard ‘playing with words’
Posted 34 minutes ago
Updated 24 minutes ago
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/11/08/2085928.htm
Oiii! How about this, Howard is a nogood pasydnyak nogoodnik. Not like our Kevin, our Kev is a fine buoy, A fine upstanding citizen a credit to his parents, a credit to your parents! He’s he’s…… a nice man! look at that smile! What’s not to like!?
Not like that Howard Yiiichhh! Or that Costello! He’s like a dybuk, he got no class, he’s been away for ever and what do we get in the mail? Nothing! He borriowed his mothers razor and never retoirned it! Dont start with Costello!Acchhhhhh!!
See the “Go for Growth” slogan was back in vogue must of been because Howard “isn’t sorry” today.
“935
Adam Says:
November 8th, 2007 at 8:02 pm
Are we getting weekly ACNs now? ACN tomorrow, Morgan Friday, Galaxy Monday, Newspoll Tuesday – o joy unbounded.”
Hmmm… entrail readers will appreciate the coded nod to Gilbert and Sullivan’s Trial by Jury there, and a subtle hint of what Adam expects on November 24.
“O joy unbounded,
With wealth surrounded,
The knell is sounded
Of grief and woe…”
Clarke and Dawe were hilarious! That was one of the best ones I’ve seen in ages. Can’t wait for Clarke’s show.
BTW:
expect hr nicholls society to make a bit of splash soon
you have to ask yourself why costello has tried to distance himself today from his erstwhile club
suckled at its breast he is now running for cover – no I’m not like that mob of blood sucking capitalists who simply want to rape, pillage and make everyone a serf..
so why did costello try to “move on” today?
we shall see, i suspect
afterall, workchoices was pretty much their script (or at least phase 1) which is why we will also be hearing more from nick minchin soon too….
“more to come”
T-shirt Idea no 400
(under a picture of the Weazel)
‘11 years and still not sorry….maybe YOU should apologize.’
Thommo, yu are either ignorant or a liar. There is massive mortage stress and rental stress in fairfax. Try bying a house in coolum say for under $400k that isn’t a complete shitbox or rent a decent unit for under $250 /week.Remember too that wages are lower on the sunny coast than in cities. Sure there is a tradeoff for lifestyle but for you too say it’s the fault of people with bad spending habits in a insult. Many of these people who bought properties did so beleving that jwh. would keep intrest rates at record lows so yes the govt. can be blamed for that. As to working in financial services that could mean you are a clerk at the local pawnbrokers! I also have a block of land as a investment prime position and it hasen’t gone up up up latley more like stagnet, stagnet,stagnet. Before you sprout lib lies check facts.
Evening all – what a day, the men folk will be sacked and the women will become barren should Rudd be elected.
You know things are grim when those are your lines of the day… apart from the semantics of an apology to peoples hip pockets that is.
On the ACN, it would have to be one of their net polls drawn a tad under 1500 of their carefully weighted selection of 93 000 (I think) odd people they have on the books.
I’m starting to take these online Nielsens seriously, they’ve been pretty rick solid to the phone polls.
La Jule has the best way with words. On Howard’s is it or isn’t it an apology:
“This isn’t a day to be looking in the Oxford dictionary, this is a day for Mr Howard to be looking inside himself and thinking to himself, ‘did I tell Australians the truth?’.”
Yes well, the Yiddische stereotype is a fairly easy schtick, Gerr. (Breaks into tuneless rendition of Bei Mir Bist Du Schon.)
mytym, not sure if you were referring to my post about Garrett – I have no problem with him.
The easiest thing in the world would for him to have stood for the Greens, or just stay head of the ACF.
He is only a liability if you judge him by soundbites. I hope he does become Environment Minster, but if not he would be a great Indigenous Affairs minister.
He is a crap “politician”, but given people hate politicians, I think he’ll do fine in the long run.
This “sorry” debacle – and it is a debacle – will remind every voter of Howards history of weasel words. It’s the biggest Liberal mistake of the campaign – because it goes to the heart of their problem. They’ve been playing games with us for years – just to get elected. This time we’re a wakeup. This stuff will be reflected in next weeks polls.
823
John Rocket Says:
What the hell every happened to aspirational nationalism?
The dog ate it, sir. Truly.
858
Let It End Says:
Howie was very close to tears on the 7:30 report before the election when he was begging the electorate to vote for him so he could retire lol.
He sure was, and he sure did. It was one of the most extraordinary and pathetic performances I have seen from a senior pollie. He is going to be hell to live with after the election.
935
Adam Says:
Are we getting weekly ACNs now? ACN tomorrow, Morgan Friday, Galaxy Monday, Newspoll Tuesday – o joy unbounded.
I might have to lock my radio, TV and computer in a safe and give a responsible adult the key for the next two weeks. Or maybe not, it is too much fun.
945
Gerr Says:
T-shirt idea no 301
‘ I voted for Howard’ (on the front) ‘May God have mercy on my soul’ (on the back.)
Or ‘Kick me hard, I’m a serial moron’.
LOL #961
Good evening Possum Comitatus, good work. This is one of the most fascinating elections I have followed and never online like this before. It’s great having all these links and opinions. Stories break here first. I bet a lot of journos are obliged to read this blog – or be out of touch.
Amazing two days. We are on new ground here with a rate rise just before an election, exactly as we predicted months ago.
LOL, I see Howie was back in front of his “Go for Growth” slogans today when talking about the employment figures.
Rest assured though at the first hint of bad news he’ll trot out the Aussie flag and ditch the slogan again.
The last refuge of a scoundrel is always patriotism.
Let it end @ 971: It’s often the first too.
Oh PLEASE
:):):)….. Longman is one of the seats our family has betting money on 
I am just hoping the ALP is not dopey enough to use the slogan “We Won’t Get Fooled Again”.
The last thing they need is to use a song that also has the lyric, “Meet the new boss, same as the old boss”.
I don’t know if this has already been canvassed, but….
(Howard) ” interest rates will always be higher under Labor”
(Costello) “rising interest rates is the sign of a strong economy”
Why am I confused?
Gerr
My weak attempt….
‘I voted for Howard’ …and on the back……… ‘and boy,AM I SORRY!’
If Howard isn’t carefull the real issue for the remainder of this election may become his credibility.
What is with these ‘Rudd has a cold’ stories on news.com.au?
They seem to be the only outlet bring it up.
Nah….
Good evening Richard (this is getting all a bit formal for PB, do we need to put on the penguin suits and bow ties
) – thank you. It has been an inersting few weeks indeed.
But let’s face it, we selected few…er… hundreds (thousands – who knows these days, it’s hard to keep up) have been ahead of the pack for months.
And there’s no point reversing that now
It’s not the “I voted for Howard” t-shirt I’m thinking of, but the t-shirt the person next to them is wearing: “I’m with stupid ->”
I think the Sydney based posters, nay, the people of Sydney should party on the Opera House forecourt on the big night and yea verily into the next day. The view to kirribilli is magnificent and our bared ars*s will be seen across the water by themselves on her last night in paradise. Our whoops too will carry across the water! There is no other site more appropriate nor venue big enough to contain the uncorking of the exuberance. I dont think it is at all Hubristic to begin planning now. Maybe Hawkie can crack the barge out of mothballs?
Pandas as pork. Dolly gave Adelaide the original pandas promised to the Gold Coast. Now he is going to help get another two for the Gold Coast (hope they arrive in the next fortnight).
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/news/queensland/downer-to-bring-pressure-to-bear/2007/11/08/1194329395845.html
Will @ 975. Spot on. Those two are becoming less & less coherent.
@977
I’d hate to see him so defenceless……
naaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa!
Glen Says:
November 8th, 2007 at 7:54 pm
Given the poles you have a better than 50% chance of getting it right if you select a random person on the street and claim he/she votes or preferences labor. Given the performance of this government over the last 3 years you must have a better than 80% chance of getting it right if you predict a labor supporter if you get a yes to the question, “are you interested in politics?”. I assume Antony Green and Sol are interested.
The fun part will be watching the ABC go feral as they become convinced the Liberals will lose. It must have been hard on the reporters watching the rubbish that has occurred and pretending it was all OK.
Another T-shirt for the pile….
Kirribilli House
non-core premises
Ok, ruawake, what family doesn’t have its problems?
Anyway, if Debbie Blumel takes Fairfax from Alex Somlyay I’ll gladly consume a barbecued bush turkey before your very eyes.
Libsrok, 962, Thommo – I lived on the Sunny Coast for 4 years until recently when I sold the house I bought 4 years ago. House prices there went up crazily in 2003 but have stagnated since then. I did alright with my place but I bought before prices went up late 2002 into 2003. But I still only stayed with the market. The problem of renters as mentioned here – yes, that’s a real problem on the Sunny, jobs are mostly in tourist related industry and don’t pay well. Rental demand has always been high and rents are currently through the roof. Workers like nurses and police try not to get posted to the Sunny, accommodation is a big problem there.
“I voted Howard” “Since he won’t apologise, I will”.
“8.11.07 – the day the wheels fell off the jalopy!”
Mia Handshin in Sturt and Nicole Cornes in Boothby are both looking good (and good looking) – apologies for the sexism).
The more clever people dump on Howard, the more stupid people identify with him and want to vote for him. A lot of swinging voters are stupid. So, stop it!!
I know this has probably be mentioned about 900 posts ago, but was today Oz headline the winner of the most biased in Australian history?
There’s enough in The Oz, that I like to keep me reading it, but sh*t I think they finally lost me today. (Thank God for Bill Leak, Mike Steketee and George)
{If Howard isn’t careful the real issue for the remainder of this election may become his credibility.]
Eeeerrr, what credibility. I didn’t know that he ever had any. If so, he sure as hell doesn’t have any now.
Did anyone see the press conference on Channel 9, CA, where Howard repeated his “non-core” apology. The look on Costello’s face was priceless. I bet he would certainly like to be driving the bus over Howard’s miserable corpse.
Pity he is all tip and no iceberg. He might have given the Libs at least some chance. As it is, Howard is doing everything possible to make sure that Tip will be lucky to even keep his seat let alone end up Leader of the Opposition.
If people thought he hated Howard before, how much will he hate him after November the 24th.
Add Kate Ellis to that list. We’ve got it good in SA!! And Mia Handshin is going to win too. I shook Pyne’s hand a few minthe ago (had to for work) and it still feels slimy. Out damn spot!
975 will – if you’re not confused, it’s because you’re not paying attention.
Good morning Voterboy. How is sunny Dulwich? Did you get some bagles from that famous place just off brick lane. Did you make any calls to your palls in the Libs. It would be interesting to hear their take on the “sorry my arse I had my fingers cwossed”
Yes, people were prepared to overlook that creepy Rodent sorry/ apology distinction when it applied to indigenous people – but they’ll flay him alive for doing it on interest rates.
Howard just blew what was left of his shambolic trainwreck campaign.
Plus Rudd was really strong and impressive on telly soundbites – he’s taking the gloves off.
Its sting like a bee time.
Im officially upping my prediction to 89 seats on the strength of today’s developments.
Did you hear what the Australian is to be renamed in the event of a Rudd win?
Provisional In-Exile Gazette Supporting Howard’s Immediate Totalitarian Elevation
or the P.I.G.S.H.I.T.E.
Actually Hadagutful John Howard is dumping on himself. I’ve never seen anything like it. After today’s utterly inept performance he might as well throw in the towel.
Peter Costell’s face was a picture. He can see the prize slipping further away from him every day.
Glen said,
{I can understand why they interview Antony because he knows so much about the polls and politics but doing it every week and with no massive movement in the polls is the same things over and over again.
- State wide swings unheard of in QLD and SA
- National polls predict 5% swing to Lab in WA
- Seats on 8% are really on 2% so large numbers of seats in play
- State wide polls good for Labor
That is what Antony says at every interview, nothing new.}
Don’t you just love hearing this sort of thing on a daily basis. As long as it hangs on till the 24th, I will be delirious.
Hadagutful do you think many stupid people find their way in here to see what the smartarses are saying about JWH? (Aside from the obvious regulars who shall remain nameless)
somlyay ? what’s he ever done?
suport workchoices-yes
suport iraq- yes
support lib mates ripping off super to workers -yes
standing up for fairfax voters – nope
earning his salary- nope
support awb bribes- yes
ever seen him papers- no
more to come
I think a good dose of lithium should sort out JWH. It will get rid of doublespeak and get that campaign back in track. You are a very sick boy Winston! Room 101 awaits you.
Where is Kevin Rudd’s credibility?
He’s got none, he’s been leader for less than 1 year and based on that you’d vote for him?
I would be upset if our Party ever puts in a leader with no experience let alone hardly any years in Parliament, but to each his own. You trash Howie over cred but what about Rudd’s cred when he lied to Joanna Harris?
Oh Grog, I am paying attention alright, and loving every bit of it! It was a rhetorical question, as I am sure the average voter will be confused.