The Australian has produced another set of Newspoll geographic and demographic breakdowns, suggesting we will be getting such figures compiled from the previous two weekly surveys each Thursday. That means both today’s breakdown and last Thursday’s were half composed of the October 26-28 survey. To produce these figures, Newspoll has increased its samples from 1000 to 1700, the extras coming from smaller states so that each has a credible sample of between 650 and 700 over a fortnight. As well as this, Newspoll is evidently doing more specialised surveys on weekdays for publication on Saturday (sometimes, at least – there was no such survey at the end of week two). So far we have been given the Bass and Braddon polls that appeared at the end of week one, along with last weekend’s marginal seats survey. The Australian’s editor Chris Mitchell, or someone who did a very good impression of him, appeared in comments a few days ago saying the latter exercise would be repeated later in the campaign.
The chart below shows how Newspoll’s projected swings to Labor have tracked out since the middle of last year. It seems that with the exception of Western Australia, the figures were closely knotted together until the election was announced, at which point they scattered: the swing has held firm in Queensland and South Australia, but returned to earth in New South Wales and Victoria. This provides corroborating evidence which had previously been lacking for the relatively mediocre NSW swing in the weekend’s marginal seat poll. That the Victorian swing is now level with Western Australia’s is perhaps more of a surprise. And then there are those swings in Queensland and South Australia, which seem firmly set in double figures. If that’s the case, Queensland will almost deliver Labor the election single-handedly, with 14 seats to fall from a uniform swing of 11 per cent. In South Australia, every figure Newspoll has produced since Rudd became leader suggests Labor should win big in Sturt and Boothby, a prospect most informed observers seem reluctant to countenance.
Last night’s comments action also brought forth some purported intelligence on Labor internal polling, which you can read here and here. This may of course be a red herring of one kind or another, but my instinct is to take people who name themselves after Ramones songs at their word.
1,157 Comments
If this doesn’t get Howard lacerated by MSM then all hope for the press is lost!
Aggregate impression indeed!
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,22722502-5012863,00.html
Eventually Labor have started to talk about the dollar value in your wage. Rattua Rattus can scurry about all he likes and tell us all what he meant he said ( anyone remember that Two Ronnies song – We knew what she mean’t, but we heard what she said). And still more than two weeks to go – will they be able to hide the rat away – after all the gaffes – which Liberal will be last one left standing?
Needless to say, it will be interesting to see if the swing in the NSW and Victorian mortgage-belt marginals will still be this low in the first poll after the interest rate rise.
There is an obvious temptation for Labor to mount a scare campaign about a likely second rise but I hope they stay positive instead.
This says three things to me
The chance of Labor getting control of the senate is small.
Iemma has influenced this election.
Queensland swung so hard last time it was bound to swing back to the local boy, Coalition need to capitalise on his mistakes when up there to find a hot issue to bring some back to the fold.
Indeed, Queensland will deliver Rudd the Prime Ministership almost by itself, on these numbers. South Australia is so good as well that it will seal the deal. At least 5 seats will go there. Even in Vic and WA where the swing is not so great, we can expect some pickups for Labor. This is most definitely going to be a Ruddslide.
This is still good news for Labor – and dont forget Tasmania!
Oops!
http://news.brisbanetimes.com.au/dr-karl-admits-mistake-over-clean-coal/20071108-18p1.html
Hi Brissy Rod,
How could forget Tasmania….
Newspoll says naumbers for Tasmania are inlcuded in Victoria.
Is it therefore reasonable to assume the Victorian numbers overstate the ALP position?
$1.30 on Labor is about 100 times better than bank interest…and tax free. Just think, 30 % for 3 weeks … That’s an annualised return around 500%.
Everyone, extend you mortgage, plonk a massive sum on Labor, get out and vote early and often, and on 25 November, collect the return and reduce your debt. Can your self managed super fund make such and investment?
Good move that, putting a Queensland boy in the driver’s seat. A parochial vote in a state where even getting to just 51/49 TPP delivers seven seats to Labor.
Not to take anything away from Kevin’s skills. I am full of admiration so far.
And I just can’t fathom that NSW swing heading south so abruptly. How do margins of error work when we talk about swings?
Peoples… Forget the over-analysis. Trying to pick state or seat swings and there whether Labor get 80 or 90 seats is like trying to work out whether it will be Ponting, Gilchrist or Symonds who gets the runs in the test and whether its Lee or Magill who gets the wickets. Who cares…the team will deliver.
My Liberal party insider told me a week ago (the transcript is here someone on one of these threads) that the party was in deep doo-doo in SA and Qld.
All this would seem to bear it out.
I think that the high household debt levels and dreadful personal savings rate under Howard that will crucify any scare campaign Howard tries to run. Seems too many people made themselves asset rich and income poor. What I can’t understand is why has the Government and the Reserve Bank taken action against these high houshold debt levels rather than just note them and do nothing.
http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/mf/5202.0?OpenDocument
I’m with Crispy, that NSW figure looks a little dodgy to me. Everywhere else seems to be holding up nicely , esp. Qld
The inclusion of Tasmania in Victoria would seem to distort Vic a little.
Most states show a drop in support for the Greens since last election typicallly about a 40% drop eg 5% down to 3%.
Victoria bucks that trend but I suspect that is the Tasmanian effect.
I wonder if this is being factored into senate predictions.
The Iemma Govt in N.S.W is getting hammered in the media for everything fom public hospitals to the dept of community services, so this might be impacting slightly on Rudd’s vote in this state. The Ruddster is in Eden Monaro today, the Rodent in Melbourne.
It’s interesting the media yet hasn’t focused on Sturt: Christopher Pyne would seem to be in a heap of trouble!
The press is just all over Howie today. Not a good look.
It’s fantastic.
The “aggregate impression” idea will gain a lot of traction, negatively. This is Howard thumbing his nose at people who trusted him. It won’t go down well.
Howard’s problem is that he cannot admit he made a mistake. Never has been able to. Even yesterday’s “Sorry” was more of an observation than an apology.
I believe that is appropriately called “hubris”.
P.S. Day #3 of no ciggies.
Seems like 3 years so far, but getting easier. Thanks to all who’ve encouraged me. Your support’s been great and has been a REAL help.
You don’t realise just how much having a fag punctuates your life and gives you excuses for putting things off. The aim, I think, is to find something to do to fill the spare time you now have.
A portrait of November 25.
http://petermartin.blogspot.com/
Hey congratulations Bill,
I gave up 18 months ago, best thing I ever did.
I have questioned a number of times on this blog why the NSW poll results for Labor were so high, given the obvious unpopularity of the State Government and that it’s Howard’s home state. No-one ever provided me with a reply. Perhaps the truth is that the NSW swing isn’t is big as people were making out.
And I was also confident that Queenslanders (from whom I am descended) would vote in droves for the local PM. That also appears to be happening.
On these state breakdowns, it does appear that Labor will win, but it’s possible no-one will be claiming victory or conceding defeat till very late in the late, when the WA results come in.
Still a bit early to make definitive predictions, with the campaign launches and the effect of the interest rate rise still to affect the polls.
Queensland will not deliver labor that many seats at all. The recent Galaxy poll of the queensland marginals shows this. Most of the sitting coalition MP’s in QLD are popular local members with a high profile in the community. The newspoll figure for QLD to me seems a bit rogueish.
Anyone think Rudd will match or beat the Coalition’s promise on parental leave? That’s about the first decent policy I’ve heard them put out in about 10 years. I would like to see something similar or better from Labor, and would have expected that they’d have something in the pipeline (there were rumours about this Coalition policy a couple of weeks ago).
6% swing to ALP in Victoria.
Victoria historically is a small swinging state where normally anything over 3% is a landslide.
One thing that may be being the NSW swing back is the Liberals appear to be putting extra effect into it’s heartland seats e.g. North Sydney.
I also think the Lemma Govt is less popular than any other State Govt but when all is done and dusted if the ALP pick up half-a-dozen seats in NSW they should be nicely placed to win over-all.
Onto other matters – I don’t think the latest interest rate rise will hurt the Govt for the previous five have already turned voters towards the ALP.
What this rate rise will do is cement the primary vote numbers making any late swings one way or another less likely.
“Rogueish”? Oh please. This is a set, how can it be rogueish?
After hearing Howard and the coalition adds, Labor should just confront his claims directly now.
He says “who do you trust to manage interest rates (when they are high)”.
Labor should respond: John Howard has lied about everything consistently throughout his time in office (no GST, children overboard, Workchoices, now record low interest rates). He couldn’t be trusted last time, why would you trust him now?
Labor’s theme song shouldn’t be “Its Time”.
Rather the Who’s “Don’t Get Fooled Again”.
Newspoll shows labor to pick up 6-7 seats in NSW, but should be more on the night.
And have yet to see the reaction to Howards latest interest rate increase and the usual dodging of responsibility for it.
Nothing displays the cold calloness of the libs than their response to the interest rate rises.
The typical comment is that if home owners can’t handle the $125 per month mortgage increase of this latest rise they shouldn’t have bought their house in the first place.
However, this is the sixth increase since Howard promised to keep interest rates at record lows, an extra $750 per month, and the tenth increase in a row, an extra $1,250 per month.
Even the most fervent liberal would surely be feeling the pain of an extra $1,250 a month, maybe not, maybe mummy’s and dahdies trust fund covers that.
The polls in WA have shown a consistent swing of about five percent to the ALP. If this holds WA will deliver a gain of two seats [Hasluck and Stirling] to Rudd.
Things are getting closer in WA. The ALP vote is up over 10% across the State since 2004 election and approaching 6% on TPP. Donkey vote and absence of Graeme Campbell might just tip Sharon Thiel over the line in Kalgoorlie.
‘Labor View from Broome’
24 Thommo. Disneyland.
Kev
I reckon labor will pick up at 4-5 in WA, Kalgoorlie will be close as you say and Forrest could go to an independent.
Anything on Pearce?
Like some above, I too am a little perplexed by the NSW ‘clawback’, (and as a certain arboreal marsupial would say, WTF is going on in Vic?). Still if Arbie Jay @ 29 is correct, NSW will top off nicely the big gains in QLD and SA. Any body keen to venture a state by state tip on seats gained?
I think that the Iemma Govt has little do with reducing the swing – influences only Liberal voters. The bottom line is that Iemma was returned in March despite the enormous negative swing.
The numbers which are not discussed is not just the outlier values, but those values which are in the 65-85 percentile. I’m amused to see housing loans quoted at $200K because in most of the big Liberal areas, forgetting Western Sydney, the loan values are much higher. I bet these people can be panicked like a flock of sparrows. These are the people which can be swung back to Labor in the last week with a decent scare campaign, or even just letting a few sloppy Liberal ministers loose on the electorate.
ifonly #16
Are Tassie figures included in the Victoria numbers? In the legend to the table, it just says Tasmiania figures are included in the total.
Maybe the Victoria figures do show a 6% swing by themselves, which should yield at least 2 seats to ALP.
I worry sincerely that Labor is making a strategic error by continuing to engage heavily on the interest rate issue now that the rise is yesterday’s news.
My advice, for what it’s worth: Let the rate rise speak for itself, let Howard’s apology speak for itself, and change the subject as quickly as possible.
I know that sounds absurd to many but this is the logic:
Many voters with little interest in politics swung over to Rudd because they felt SAFE to do so. Rudd looked safe because he looked, as has been widely observed, a lot like Howard. Intensive focus on economic management where the Coalition has a clear lead in all polling will just serve to undermine this sense of feeling safe – irrespective of the substance of the discussion.
What Labor does NOT want this weekend is chat around the BBQs of marginal electorates where voters are indeed scratching to find the extra $40 or $50 a month along these lines:
“So Dad, is it really true that rates got up to 17 per cent the last time Labor was in?”
# 1 StanS Says: November 8th, 2007 at 5:52 am
So I wonder which core and non-core promises get included in the aggregate impression?
Parental leave and Grand-parental leave – from Howard and Costello – it’s a con! Have they explained how that one fits into SerfChoices, does it apply to all companies, what about casuals. Maybe for the employees of Macquaire Bank. Can it be negotiated away?
For crying out loud – these guys are desperate.
# 1 StanS Says: November 8th, 2007 at 5:52 am
Or is it the case with John Howard, that you’re not really a liar if you only lie 49% of the time?
This is not to suggest that any polls relied on, owned by and/or published by News Limited are necessarily dodgy, simply it is a matter of interpretation.
The psychological effect of having an indication of a runaway win to Labor this far from the polls encourages people, i.e. gives them “permission” if you like, to vote ALP.
What comes in to play is the atavistic phenomenon of the herd instinct. Human beings, like horses and wolves, are social animals where survival has always depended on belonging to a group. This is deeply ingrained in the primitive brain.
A significant percentage of people will vote on the perception of what other people will do.
This is why the News Ltd columnists such as Dennis Shanahan and the Poison Dwarf write absurd interpretations of the trend in a rearguard defence of Coalition seats – trying to save as many as possible so it will be easier next time to win back government. Why? News Ltd makes more money with a Coalition government in power.
Another slogan:
In order to get an honest government, we need a new government.
In order to get a government we can trust, we need a new government.
If interest rates do go higher, who do you trust to keep their promises?
Sir Henry 41
Quite right. I sometimes wonder at what point Shanahan and Bolt just come clean, resign their jobs, and take positions as full time campaign workers for Howard? I wonder if they even see themselves as journalists any more? Maybe they believe if a cause is worthwhile, it is worth deceiving people for.
I agree Flash [37]
Get back on to education, environment and “values”
Let the interest rate rise undercut the government on its own
28
People would no doubt draw attention to the part of the lyrics that says “Meet the new boss, same as the old boss”…
On interest rates:
It’s not the 17% interest rate line that Labor needs to counter, it’s the BS that scrapping workchoices will push up interest rates. Most people are willing to discount events that happened over 15 years ago, but the government’s scare on interest rates and Labor’s IR policy might fool some people.
Kevin Rudd’s line that interest rates have gone up every 15 weeks since the introduction of workchoices is the one he needs to hammer.
Bushfire Bill – keep it up, fantastic effort so far. Get out and get the blood pumping sometime today, celebrate the continuing decline of the rodent.
Xulon
Good point! I suppose Howard would liek Cat Stevens “Father and Son”. Its not time to make a change… He could do a duet with Costello for added irony.
Ross Gittins today:
Although Labor is hardly any better, Mr Howard has form when it comes to misleading the electorate about interest rates. Is it so gullible as to be conned two elections in a row?
This is surprisingly good from Annabelle Crabbe:
http://www.smh.com.au/news/opinion/the-day-two-cunning-adventurers-fell-into-their-own-big-heffalumptrap/2007/11/07/1194329317516.html
So what else do we put into this category???
“When I said:
*I wouldn’t push Workchoices further;
*carbon emissions would be cut back;
*I’d hold a referendum on Indigenous reconcilliation; or
*I’d hand over to Costello;
no-one believed me I because taking the totality of what I said everyone knew I was:
*an anti-union ideologue;
*a climate change skeptic;
*anti-Indigenous rights; and
*addicted to power.”
BRILLIANT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
To a large extent, people factored in an increase in interest rates over a week ago when the CPI went up. So the issue has been going for quite some time already. The ALP is playing to one of the coalitions strengths by turning it into an economic management issue.
They have to let go of the obvious temptation to keep hammering Howard about broken promises because everyone knows he is a liar anyway and many don’t really care.
I think they have to quickly get back to their core issues of health, education, environment etc, for the last few weeks of the campaign.
Deo I agree.
Ramp up the “response” type adds with reminders that Howard lies, but the positive messages at the end.
Rudd has to turn on “the light on the hill” type of speeches
also map out a clear concise vision for the waverers
ignore the rodent and his rodentcy- lets now move forward to fixing up the mess
Just a thought…
Sports watchers would be well aware of those over-marketed and over-priced memorabilia pieces that are flogged by the likes of Richie Benaud on Ch. 9. You know the ones: the framed picture of Shane Warne celebrating his 10,000th conquest, with smaller pictures and stats and graph boxes down the bottom next to Shane’s signature. Well, if the ALP gets up, will somebody be flogging a framed picture of Kev, arms aloft in victory? Included at the bottom could be a picture of a sad and sorry looking Rodent, next to a set of tables showing seats won and lost and the signature of Kev. I’d love one, but I imagine that they’d be pricey; I might just make my own.
Just a thought.
I agree:
Labor believes in economic strength, but we also believe in the importance of community, the importance not just of generating wealth, but in fostering a sense of security. That’s why we will pull apart Workchoices, because we believe that in good times wealth should be shared faired, and in bad times people people should be treated fairly.
Something like that…
Hmm…so we have an interest rate rise, as expected. Am I the only one concerned that Labor now has an even tougher fight on its hands as Howard and Costello apply the economic management blowtorch. There is no question that the rate rise proves that governments and politicians have only peripheral influence over interest rates. But Labor can’t hide from its record and it’s not good.
Has anyone read the Piping Shrike?
http://thepipingshrike.blogspot.com/
He offers fantastic insights into the campaign and well worth a read. I like the reference to “anti-politics”.
For my 2 cents, I reckon Labor’s best bet is to drop the interest rate issue altogether and move well away from the economy for the rest of the campaign. That is the coalition’s strong suit and arguably Labor’s weakest suit. Labor is getting beaten about the head by the Coalition on IR, unions and economic management and can’t really return fire with much credibility. Rudd should start getting back onto the issues he can speak with credibility about – climate change, health, education, Howard’s lies, fixing the broken federation etc.
Yeah, that worked brilliantly for Latham!!!
Arbie Jay #33
There is almost no chance Forrest will fall to Noel Brunning (the independent). His refusal to do a preference deal with Labor and his pro workchoices stance will kill him. He also refuses to door knock which is very interesting. Brunning with 15 to 20% of the vote mostly taken from and going back to the Libs. My prediction in Forrest is the Libs by around 3% over Labor.
Ahh yesssss…. but Latham was unfortunately in a campaign when rates were at record lows, not 11 year highs!
Just heard on ABC radio in Sydney: both Smirky and Rudd are addressing News Ltd editors today in Canberra.
I think that the point is you don’t run away from a fight or look scared of dealing with an issue – and in the wake of a rate rise that is where the debate is for now. You fight on that territory while that is where the attention is. And you keep fighting on all your strong points as well, because if attention swings back there you are laughing.
What is the ALP going to say in response to a question “Mr Swan, what do you think of this rate rise?”
“I think that climate change is a real concern”.
Of course not!
Re Deo at 52…
I launched into my spiel without reading those above me. I think Deo @ 52 said it all perfectly.
The rate rise is a non-issue. A few stragglers may drift over the Labor but it really just amplifies Labor’s shocking record on interest rates and economic management. What Rudd doesn’t need is another day of Howard and Costello hammering him over 17% interest rates and budget deficits. Not a good look. And sure to turn some waverers back to the dark side.
Time for more attack ads too.
Ashley @ 46
“Kevin Rudd’s line that interest rates have gone up every 15 weeks since the introduction of workchoices is the one he needs to hammer.”
Agreed, my not-very-political-but-labor-voting-girlfiend, jumped up when Kevin said that and just said, “Labor have to use that line.”
This is, to put it in the words of our magically disappearing Health Minister, bullsh*t.
Hang in there, BB, the third day is one of the toughest. If you can get through today you are well on the way to beating the dreaded fags.
You know you can do without for another 30 minutes – just keep doing that all day, and keep yourself occupied. If it gets too bad, fruit juces help to kill the ‘craving taste’, and a belt around the block on a pushie or a short jog will take your mind off it a bit.
Try and change your habitual ‘cigarette’ times – with a beer, or coffee, you know when. Avoid or try and change your normal routine then so that a fag is not part of it.
Be careful what you eat – it took two years for my body to get back to ‘normal’, but food will start tasting SO good it is very easy to get out of shape.
Still, round IS a shape ….. : )
Lots of luck – you have a lot of support here ….
Good point re Latham. But the public saw Latham as a union thug/loose cannon. Rudd doesn’t have that same scary outward appearance. But I agree, Labor can’t shirk the debate of the day.
Is there anything in simply confessing to making a hash of things in the past and vowing to turn over a new leaf, backed by nice statements of economic conservatism? I don’t see the point in continuing to pretend that Labor are great economic managers when the record is there for all to see. Much like Iemma’s “more to do, but heading in the right direction”. Face the music head on and give solemn undertakings to do better next time.
Bedtime stories for naughty Tories …. : )
http://www.smh.com.au/news/opinion/the-day-two-cunning-adventurers-fell-into-their-own-big-heffalumptrap/2007/11/07/1194329317516.html
“Adumbrates”
What the!
Tragic news for cricket tragics, this is the first time for years that the normal rain has returned to Brisbane and it is still raining lightly here. People can take umbrellas into the ground but under new crowd control rules are not allowed to use umbrellas if it rains. Howard’s thinking has trickled down to make cricket crowds one of the most over regulated meetings of people in the country.
Has anybody reminded Malcolm Turnbull to take his list of the other 24 places beside Bribie Island where Nuclear Power stations are going to be sited? The debate between Turnbull and Garrett today should be a cracker, not very often we get to see self made millionaires fight over environmental issues.
Garrett v Turnbull will be interesting. I wonder whether their gaffes will cancel each other out.
I fear Garrett will lose badly. To me, he is completely unconvincing when he is running lines he doesn’t believe in, like the Gunns pulp mill whereas Turnbull, for all his failings, has the gift of the political gab.
Ralph,
ON a federal level, what evidence, I mean, yes, from Whitlam of course they made mistakes, but that was 30 years ago, what you have the same opinion since then? What was true then, is not now…..
And come to think of it (ever the pessimist) just imagine if Garrett messed up badly. That would be the next big media “subject” after interest rates ie: Labor looking weak in an area that is supposed to be a key strength, the environment.
I’m not confident re Garrett either. In my opinion, he shouldn’t be environment minister in a Rudd government. I’d be giving him Arts and Sport – make him the minister for fun. It would also keep him out of the limelight and out of trouble. He also has no shortage of experience in the arts world, making him the most qualified arts minister the government could find.
labor needs to talk about the future , what policies, programs that over time will bring interest rates down, be honest about the future ,
let the liberals wallow in the past ,
rudd needs to talk about howard and costello voting against every wage rise for low income workers since they were elected in 96, another disgraceful lib record
The Skynews bulletins today are making a big fuss that the Newspoll for W.A. does not show Labor leading like it does in all other states. This tabloid television Howard Cheerleader is now obviously desperate to show any graphic which has Team Howard at parity with Team Labor. I guess the message is that W.A. is showing the true path for the rest of the benighted states to follow. No prizes for guessing that absolutely no mention was made that parity in W.A. still means a swing away from Howard on the 2004 W.A. result.
However, in the Skynews’ well balanced (strangely) “Agenda 07″ program at 8:30 a.m. with Helen ? as interviewer, Wayne Swan did have the opportunity to point out this W.A. swing toward Labor, although he also spouted the usual caveats about poll volatility. BTW, his overall performance was more assertive and solid than I’ve seen previously, and he’s now stressing the point that the recent rate rises pain is far worse due to much larger mortgages, thus making housing affordability tougher than its’ ever been for battlers and first-home buyers.
Ralph, the issue is not whether a record is there “for all to see” it is that some (such as yourself) have bought the lies peddled for 11 years by Howard and his parade of freaks. If you want an objective analysis of economic reform and management undertaken by the ALP have a listen to the most recent Boyer lectures by Ian Macfarlane:
http://www.abc.net.au/rn/boyerlectures/default.htm
It is easy to forget that Latham tried really hard to stick to his promsie to conduct a positive campaign and ignore the govt smears and a smarta_rse press looking for roadkill.
As much as we all say we hate negative campaigns they work where it counts.
If you’d like a refresher from that period that still has resonance today:
http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2004/07/09/1089000349258.html
Re Bird @ 73
I personally think Rudd would do a great job in government. It’s just the change that Australia is looking for. There is every bit of evidence that union influence would be at its lowest ever (despite being staked with union officials) and he’s not about to run up budget deficits if he can help it. I mean, he wants to get re-elected and he won’t do that if he runs around being reckless.
The real issue is the perception that Labor are poor economic managers. Howard and Costello have said it that often that more then 50% of Newspoll believe it. They have to address the perception that they can’t manage money, whether it is true or not.
I hope unemployment figures don’t show a drop to 4.1% from 4.2% today. We’ll never hear the end of it from the government, even though it has very little to do with them.
The state samples in Newspoll are equal, so the MoE for NSW in this poll is 4%. I believe that this is an outlier for NSW, and distorts the national average. The reason for this is that the NSW sample for each Newspoll is stretched almost 2-fold to get a national figure, as NSW has about 1/3 of the seats, but only about 1/5 of the poll samples. If the real NSW figure is still at 57-58, the actual national figure is around 55.
The Herald-Sun in Melbourne has an article on JASON WOOD (LIB, LA TROBE) about his complete 180 degree turn on the Liberal’s policy on nuclear power in Oz.
Maybe they read it here the other day.
It seems given the Newspoll figures Labor needs to talk about nothing at all for the next 2 weeks and just turn up. If the swing is a uniform 6%+ in SA and 7+ in QLD JWH is finished, even if he does get the swing down to 4% in VIC and NSW.
This question of changing the subject away from economic management is crucial for this reason:
We’re getting close to the pointy end of the campaign, and arguably, the interest rate rise is the very first time that generally uninterested voters have actually thought to themselves: “Hey, the reality of my day to day life is impacted by what these clowns are talking about. So what do I make of it all?”
That is the grave danger, I believe. That these people will for the first time really start paying attention – and the Coalition line about Labor’s poor record on interest rates and economic management generally will really start to bite.
BV @ 78
I acknowledge that Labor have been great economic reformers in the past. Indeed, we wouldn’t be where we are today without the courage of previous labor governments. And we need more of the courage in the future. I fully understand the level of spin that has gone on over the years to undermine the Labor economic cause. I am a Labor supporter and genuinely hope Rudd gets up on 24 Nov.
The problem, however, is that there is a perception in the community that Labor are not good economic managers. Marketing 101 says perception is reality and that is what Labor has to confront to win over people who are convinced by the lies peddled by the Libs.
Ralph,
But its annoying that people have very outdated views. Budget deficits are a normal part of running a country – its economics 101!! People have been brought up to think that deficits are bad and that getting into budget surplus is a sign of superior economic management – Labor, instead of educating people, as per usual bounce around to a neoliberal agenda. Frustrating!!
So, would you prefer a social democratic alternative? or a US style country?
For what it’s worth, I think Labor should make a fair degree of noise about interest rates, particularly targetting lower & middle income voters who are going to feel the pain of this latest rise the most. But they can’t afford to build the whole campaign around it. Labor is also vulnerable on this issue-but not so much because of Howard’s “17% under Keating” line, which I think has lost most of its potency. Labor’s problem is that it, like the Liberals, doesn’t have an answer to holding interest rates down. Improvements in education and faster broadband are going to halt inflation? Hogwash. That’s about as intelligent as Howard’s constant tax cuts, which are like pouring petrol on a fire-and which Rudd politically had to match. So run “interest rate rise every 15 weeks since Workchoices was introduced”, it’s a killer line, but keep going with the positive, new leadership stuff as well, and of course keep pushing Workchoices. Actually, I think Labor is running a very good, pragmatic, campaign-the only weakness is dud candidates in some seats, installed by factional deals or their spouses.
I think you shouldnt underestimate the potential for a swing in NSW too, there are some very strong locals who are first rate marginal seat campaigners in Craig Thompson in Dobell and Belinda Neal in Robertson.
Exactly, and experience from 2004 demonstrated that not confronting the issue means that you are effectively allowing the other side to suggest you agree with their scare campaign.
“Not talking about” the issue is simply not an option. You need to talk about it in a way which assists you – and by framing the debate as about “working families”, “costs of living” and “housing affordability” the ALP may have discovered a means of doing so.
But, if you really are an ALP supporter, spouting blantantly untrue lines such as “I don’t see the point in continuing to pretend that Labor are great economic managers when the record is there for all to see”, is simply unhelpful.
Satisfaction with Rudd is still very high, at 60%+, and he’s still the Preferred PM. I believe that implies that most people feel that, although Howard may be better, Rudd would do a reasonable job with the economy. You can compare with Latham, who was getting smashed as PPM at this time.
The interesting question is what happens if labor loses? Surely it’s too terrifying to think about. It would have to be disastrous. But perhaps it would present a genuine opportunity to reinvent the party. I would say that they’d have to look at severing the union ties and moving more towards a genuine centre-left social democrat party similar to those found in Scandinavia for instance.
I am not sure if someone raised it here or on another site. However, I think Labor needs to push the Micro-line they have been since Rudd took the leadership. Go hard against Howard’s Marco stuff, but bring it back to the kitchen table.
92 – Labor will lose and they must face the future as a party who will never win again.
Perhaps they should merge with greens
Workchoices would be “endorsed” by the electorate and gradually extended.
There would be another arch conservative judges appointed to the High Court during the next term.
There would be the potential for a wholesale sell off of public hospitals to private operators once they all have their own boards and the foundation of a US-style health system.
Education would be moved further towards user-pays.
And the ALP would be likely to move further to the right rather than the left.
Perhaps it would be a blessing in disguise if Labor lost this one.
The economic wheels are almost certain to come off in the next year or two so if Labor wins they will have to wear the blame, however much the attribute the problems to the previous administration.
Let the unpopular Costello take the reins in a potentially nasty squabble, then let him wear some economic mayhem. After that Labor could win on pretty much any terms it likes.
Labor will win and we will see Whitlam Govt MKII
It’s not about rates per se, it’s about trust. “Who do you trust?” Remember?
Surely Labor’s argument is simple:
“If it’s not his fault they’ve gone up because he can’t control them, he lied in 2004 when he said he could.
If he can control them but hasn’t, you can’t trust him on rates any more.
He says to control rates you need work choices, but rates have gone up since work choices has come in.
Howard/ Costello = higher rates and less pay and conditions under work choices”.
Work choices is poison for the government. Good luck to them if they try to say to people that you need work choices to keep your wages down to control your interest rates. In other words “You’ll be better off with rates because we will make you worse off with your wages”.
I can really see that selling well, can’t you?
ESJ – While I respect that you have come to terms with the Libs most likely losing, I had a very similar statement issued to me by another Liberal voting friend. I just don’t see it happening.
For the next 3 years (good economic times or bad) Rudd will be able to unravel the myth of the Howard Costello as godlike economic managers. Unless Rudd does something completely out of line with his control freak persona, he will bang on about this all the way until the next election.
Fascinating article ed (76). The same names, the same tactics, the same glaring hypocrisy. Only the dates have changed.
And of course the fact that the mud doesn’t stick so readily to Rudd.
71 Ralph
I can only hope that the Turnbull-Garrett environment debate does turn out to be a cancel out of gaffes, as you satirically suggested. Garrett will have to punch well above his weight to draw the bout with a person of Turnbull’s intelligence and toughening experiences whilst heading up the Republic Referendum campaign.
However, hard to imagine how this debate would be likely to change any votes. Younger to middle age voters will continue to back Garrett no matter how badly he stuffs up, but after today Rudd might be judicious to send him to wherever Team Howard hides its Ministers Kevin Andrews and Philip Ruddock.
Yes, Ralph, I know what you mean. Yes, they are the 2nd party of the Right and have been since neoliberalism came in …………its kind of depressing, but I am just hoping for some changes, and maybe in 30 years time when this ideology dies, they will be more in the centre/left
BY the way, I am in Sydney’s eastern suburbs, is anyone having an election party in inner west, city or east? I would love to come!!
Nope, it would be catastrophic if the ALP didn’t win this election, especially after all this consistently good polling and the decade in the wilderness. It would be the mother of all bloodbaths.
Right now is a perfect time for Rudd to outflank Howard on a strong Coalition policy area.
For instance, national security. Make a bold announcement beefing up coastal patrols up north. Something like that. Get Howard scrambling to “me too”. Change the subject. Now.
96 [Perhaps it would be a blessing in disguise if Labor lost this one.]
Dream on. There is no good reason for a divided rabble like the present Government to be re-elected.
Liberals to recognise gay relationships…not however while both partners are still alive…. there existence will only be legally acknowledged after the death of a partner. Sad and cruel.
Coalition have won the election.
Respect the result. Respect Howard
Sri Lanka won the toss and put Australia into bat. Ponting must be pretty happy I think
Ralph at 80
I think Mr Costello would strongly disagree with you.
“The Howard treasurership was not a success in terms of interest rates and inflation. He had not been a great reformer.”
At the end of Mr Howard’s treasurership, inflation was running at 11 per cent and bank interest rates for home loans were 12.5 per cent. Even Mr Costello challenges Mr Howard’s determination as a reformer and even his veracity in claiming to have attempted reform as treasurer.
Speaking of the Campbell inquiry’s recommendations for the deregulation of the financial sector under the prime ministership of Malcolm Fraser, he said: “He [Mr Howard] would say to you now, ‘Oh well, I was always in favour of it and Malcolm stopped it’.
“You know, the truth of the matter is if he had really wanted to push it he could have pushed it.”
Similarly, Mr Costello takes issue with Mr Howard’s record as a fiscally responsible treasurer. While Mr Howard has since said he threatened to resign in protest at Mr Fraser’s profligacy, Mr Costello questions this: “He was threatening resignation a long time after the event but there was no evidence at the time.”
I expect Garrett to hold his own and this will be good experience, as he is still wet behind the ears.
Turnbull is not far behind and he will have to perform, considering the government’s record on these issues.
I’m considering going to an election party in Adelaide. But not sure whether to go to the party or watch it at home on the tele with my feet up, some pizza and a few coldies. If you go to an election party and the result doesn’t turn out the way you want it to, it could end up being a wake!
Only if the Libs have control of the Senate. Over the life of the Whitlam government the senate reject more than 90 bills outright – compared to about 60 in total from Federation up to that point. Nobody can effectively govern in that environment.
I doubt this current crop of born-to-rule inbreds would try it again, but you never know.
What I will also say is that there’s a lot of people here seriously underestimating Peter Garrett. Tell me, who won this exchange?
I’d forgot about that biography. Why the hell isn’t the Costello line “The Howard treasurership was not a success in terms of interest rates and inflation. He had not been a great reformer.” Plasted on billboards, TV web , back of milk cartons?
It’s absolute gold. There are couple of campaign free kicks here for Rudd. Stop pussy fotting around. It’s not overly negative and gets to the heart of the mythology the Libs have spun on economic management
109 John Hunt is a Coward said: “Similarly, Mr Costello takes issue with Mr Howard’s record as a fiscally responsible treasurer.”
Good point, JHiaC, which is reinforce by the battle of the graphs between Howard and Costello yesterday.
Whereas Mr. Howard’s graph mentioned is cut discretely off on the left at the convenient year of 1983 so as not to reveal the soft porn of Mr. Howard’s 22% rates when Fraser’s Treasurer, Mr. Costello had an R-rated graph (might contain obscenities like a Recession and Higher Interest Rates) which pointedly did not bother to censor out the Fraser/Howard years. Could this be a subtle hint from Prince Peter that a re-elected Coalition might not be as totally harmonious as Mr. Howard wants to to believe?
Edward StJohn Says:
November 8th, 2007 at 10:41 am
Labor will win and we will see Whitlam Govt MKII
ESJ, a learned man such as you sure gets me worried when I read comments like the one above! I actually thought Hawke would have been closer to that mark but I was wrong. But for you to imply that “The Ruddster” is Whitlam MkII well now I’m going to check for ‘reds under the bed’. Fairdinkum you can do better than that ESJ!
This is the other line that Labor should be pushing. A vote for the Libs is an endorsement of Workchoices. You didn’t get to vote for it last time, so if you vote for it now they’ll think you like it.
Could be good strategy, Flash @ 104.
Could Rudd embrace some pseudo Hansonism to appeal to the battlers out there. Rather than labor fearing a wedge, they should launch their own Tampa.
What was wrong with Gough – he is a God.
Anyone know how the Nat’s campaign is going. I can see the polling results, which seem to be holding, but I was wondering if anybody has other info/views on their campaign.
I was looking forward to their increasing demise this election but that doesn’t seem to be occuring.
Paladin, that’s from way too long ago, and thus irrelevant.
111 [If you go to an election party and the result doesn’t turn out the way you want it to, it could end up being a wake!]
Even Howard’s handpicked cabinet doesn’t want him as leader. The one thing the Australian voters will not tolerate is public displays off party disunity. There will be a wake alright but not the from the side you were thinking of. Disunity is death. Just ask the Queensland tories.
I think Garrett is great when it comes to heart-felt passion, but a bit light on when it comes to reasoned logic. That’s why he struggles moving from activism, where he was so effective, into mainstream politics where he has to play a straight game.
I think Garrett v Turnbull will be similar to Costello v Swan. Garrett will be well-prepped and won’t offer up any gaffes, he’ll appear professional and he’ll stick to the party line. It’ll be a fairly neutral outcome with no knockout blows on either side.
Lord D @ 120. irrelevant??? I disagree. This is a comment from his deputy and PM aspirant. Labor didn’t say it, a commentator didn’t say it. Peter Costello said it. It’s gold and should be used.
Turnbull is a smart guy. He will bait Garrett; lead him in to a trap, I fear. Hope I’m wrong but just consider the disaster if a Garrett blooper led the TV news tonight.
ESJ-Suggesting Whitlam MK2 is the silliest thing youve psoted on here. Like Rudd is anywhere near the reformer Gough was. Good Grief-You are normally more astute than that. But if you are suggesting that an incoming ALP Government is about to inherit a an economy that is on the way down like it was in ‘72 and that the Tories have squandered good economic times there might be some truth in that.
Most likely unemployment will be down – with Christmas casuals, holidays, etc. Maybe it’s too early. On the other hand a blog over at the SMH had lots of people describing the bitter experience of Centrelink and finally needing to walk away.
As the Rats tax cuts are delivered as welfare for Liberals, many of them will be telling similar stories of Centrelink battles.
Queensland Labor uses ads focusing minds on the coalition infighting. With the coalition ads already doing the hard work of advertising at least 70% unity for Labor. Labor could exploit the factional splits in the Tories.
Good Lord, you’re describing him as the consummate politician!
ESJ is just yanking your chain to get a response.
Required reading by all.
Sheep too. Especially Comments.
http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/meganomics/index.php/theaustralian/comments/line_dancing_labors_way/P0/
Agree, the nightly news with Garrett running off at the mouth is the last thing labor needs right now. He needs to be very careful and stick to his script.
Hope I’m wrong Ralph but there is something about the guy that makes me extremely nervous. Maybe that old footage used in this week’s Coalition ad has fuelled my fears.
I agree: Rudd needs a nice wrap up couple of weeks, emphasizing positive vision, and let Howard make all the running on his confusing interest rate story, and his bizarro world workchoices equals high wages AND wage restraint nonsense.
Emphasises the its time factor, play it safe, not too negative, on the front foot with vision, wrap up the climate and education message nicely.
I suspect he’ll do exactly that.
ALP to romp in. Watching the Tories lose their marbles over the next fortnight will be a fun sideshow.
The sudden change in NSW seems to come from females in the 35-49 age bracket.
The previous big change in Victoria seems to have come from the over 50s.
Calling the election/tax cuts made the Victorian over 50s jump to Howard but not the NSW ones. A week or so later it appears calling the election/tax cuts made the 35-49 NSW females jump to Howard.
The precipetous changes in Vic and NSW appear disconnected in demographic and timing.
108 – we in england dont like cricket and regard it as an irrelevance!
LOL
I would encourage you to think of how EGW was perceived pre-1972. He was seen as a class traitor who would have fitted in better to the English Liberal Party rather than the ALP and remarkably enough as an economic conservative.
I think whilst there is a consensus that Rudd is a control freak there is also a wide divergence of views in the ALP on issues such as the role of unions, spending etc and a lot of ministers getting in for the first time in their fifties. Like Whitlam people getting into the ministry in their fifties after a long time out will be anxious to make their mark and spend, spend, spend. With a small majority too – anyone who is knifed or denied will make all sorts of noise and trouble so there will be a real reluctance to spend. Where there is a divergence in views you get lots of internal arguments and disputes.
If Labor doesnt get control of the Senate you can expect the Liberals to be ruthless in blocking bills – even to the point of voting with the Greens to block legislation.
Finally I think there is a real prospect of the economy tanking in 2009. Just in time for KR to wear the blame a la Whitlam. It will be interesting as to the level of control he will be able to exercise – for example does anyone think he will really be able to give Mike Kelly or that Bennelong women a ministry over the heads of people who have waited 15 years or so for a go?
Sorry should have said real reluctance to deny anyone
What amazes me is that Labor doesn’t make more of the Coalition’s duplicity on WorkChoices. On one hand, they boast that real wages are up. But in the next breath, they say that it’ll keep a lid on inflation and therefore interest rates. Which is it? How can it boost your wages more than Labor’s IR system but simultaneously prevent wage breakouts and inflation? Doesn’t make sense to me.
Have we confirmed that NLP have won the election?
Where is Will and Lord whatsitname?
LOL Labor
Geez, a couple of people buying into Malcolm Turnbull’s superficial glam.
He’s a smart person and can make nice pre-prepared wishy washy big picture speeches, but his off the cuff media performances suggest that he doesn’t have the ability at the moment to lead anybody into a “trap” in a debate.
Ralph,
Instead of a tribunal saying everybody gets 4% wage increase it means areas where an employer can afford it getting 10% and areas were the employer cant afford it getting less than 4%.
LOL labor = finished.
Liberal = 40 maj
ESJ, you are of course ignoring the fact that ALP IR policy has been since Keating built upon enterprise bargaining not central wage fixing.
141 – ESJ: which is also the ALP’s policy and has been since decentralised wage fixing and enterprise bargaining came in in 1993 or thereabouts.
How the media lets the PM get away with sprouting off that pattern bargaining will come back if Labor gets in is beyond me.
ave it 07 = tabitha
ave it 07 = sad, sad man.
I’m reposting a question and reply on the Meganomics Blog, because I thought it was particularly enlightening for those of us who are not economists.
Ave it 07, drunk on power and completely deluded like his IDOL JWH.
EStJ, the ALP needed (and got) a control freak. it’s got them where they are today, staring down the barrel of a major hammering of el rodente et al.
ESJ
Whitlam Govt MKII?
One could argue that a better analogy is Sir William McKell in NSW. He inherited a narrow pool of talent, as has Rudd. He saw that in order to win government, he had to win the rural vote. Rudd sees he must win and maintain the support of the middle class. McKell chose key candidates, with mainstream credentials, many not members of the ALP. So has Rudd.
This moderate, right-wing NSW Labor Party crafted by McKell held power for 24 years, and his legacy remains to this day.
As for the Left, there is nobody there today who can hold a candle to the persuasive passion of Jim Cairns, the intellect of Lionel Murphy, or the numbers ability of Tom Uren.
Times have changed, for sure.
Don’t feed the trolls boys and girls
I would like to see Tanner to debate Minchin that would be interesting. It seems a lot of the labor hacks on here dislike Tanner but to me he seems like a pretty straight shooter.
And with interest rates, what Howard/Costello are effectively saying is…
The economy is booming, so inflation is increasing, prices are going up. We (the coalition) want you to buy bigger houses, consume more stuff in the capitalist utopia we live in. We (the coalition) also understand that working families face higher living costs. But we’re also saying that it’s a scary economic world out there, so you need to tighten your belts and can’t expect to get regular pay increases to pay for the extra stuff that we think you should be able to go out and buy. So trust us to keep your wages down while we encourage you go to out there and buy more stuff which will continue to increase in price anyway. Yeah, it’s pretty bad out there. And by the way, don’t vote for labor because they’ll just make it all worse.
It’s quite a sell.
Chris, I think Tanner is one of the best.
Employement Rate up to 4.3%
This data is horrible for Howard. Superficially, it looks bad.
Underlying it’s actually very very strong and has caused interest rates to go up. A Dec rate rise is looking like a stronger possibility by the day! Worst of both worlds for Howard
Cricket has been on for an hour now (including pregame and current rain delay). With the rain, 9 has had plenty of time to run commercials. So far, no political ads at all for either side.
Chris @ 152.
I love Tanner. The biggest waste of talent on the Labor front bench, no doubt about it. Why he is not in the treasurer’s seat is truly beyond me. I think he’d make a fantastic treasurer. He’s a far better performer than Swan in every sense of the word. In fact, if we had Tanner fronting the talkback jocks and duelling Costello, I think Australia would feel a whole lot more comfortable about Labor running a steady ship.
Why will no one answer me?
Why has productivity gone backwards under workchoices?
Haahahahahahahaha!
Nobbled by statistical variation no doubt… probably hasn’t actually changed much at all.
But it’ll shut ‘em up. They would have been praying for a drop so that they could go on about how good they are at making jobs.
Tanner will never be treasurer for two reasons: (1) he is in the Left, and (2) his party will never win an election in his working life.
Tanner is non factional?
Yes, I really wanted Tanner to be treasurer too. He is smart and every time I have listened to him I have been impressed.
Tanner is from the left.
Ashley – that’s it exactly.
The RBA will look past the headline and raise rates – the populace won’t see past the uptick in unemployment.
Essentially unemployment has moved from 4.249 to 4.251 (really that small).
Its hardly surprising that the British tories are looking to John Howard as some sort of demigod. After all, the british conservative party is pretty much a talent free zone other than the odd-sounding yorkshire toff William Hague.
They even managed to lose my old Sheffield electorate of Sheffield Hallam to the lib dems. in 1997 (and havent won it back since) even though it has the highest average income of any electorate outside of the south east of England.
Because stripping pay and conditions from workers makes them less motivated, and less efficient.
Employement Rate up to 4.3%
I suspect that JWH will spin this rise so as to blame Labour for the increase, he is so predictable.
A girlfriend in Perth who lives in the Pearce electorate reported this morning that when she boarded the train to head into Perth for work she saw big “Howard Out” graffiti written all over at the train station. The train station is in a strongly Liberal part of Pearce. Reports from the front line for what it is worth
…….
Its amusing hearing opinion that labor should just turn the other cheek on interest rates or ‘apologise’ for previous economic management. This is exactly what they did so disasterously under Beazley and Latham. Beazley famously apologised for the high interest rates under Labor in the late 80s…along with Latham’s signed guarantee on interest rates, it was one of the most lame, pathetic moments in Labor history and the party is still trying to clean up the mess. Its the reason why Howard is still running this interest rate line. Its his only last line of attack and it needs to be blown out of the water.
Those lib interest rate adds that were all over the TV last night resonate with people and I can’t for the life of me understand why labor don’t throw one out to counter them. The ‘6 consecutive rises under howard’ ad is ok, but it just tells people what they know and doesnt address the lib ad which effectively gazumps it…Three main points could be made:
1 -22% rates under howard in the early 80s – keep saying the 22% figure as much as howard says 17% under labor…
2- Interest rates in oz at the moment at the top of the OECD average
3 – proportion in income going to service debt something like 3 times what it was in the 90s…
The 22% line under Howard not only obliterates the ‘history’ argument but it again shows Howard up to be a shyster. The problem with recent Labor history under Gartrell, Grey et al is that they seem to have lost much of their strategic ability and capacity to respond to campaign dynamics..The interest rate issue is an opportunity for Howard – its on his ground – the economy and fear…..everywhere else is Labor territory.
Certainly, since I discovered this site my efficiency has fallen through the floor.
marty — too true
They need to do a graph which shows that the long run trend in interst rates is down since it peaked under Fraser. Since then the trend has been down and down and down, no matter who’s in power.
Factions, smactions. Does it really matter whether Tanner’s left, right or something else. Surely it’s a case of best guy for the job. In fact, I think that’s why Rudd made a big deal about selecting his front bench on merit. All he has to do (assuming labor wins) is switch Swan and Tanner. His big 3 economic leadership team remains the same, just a bit of musical chairs – no broken promises there. And then he’s free to shunt Garrett to Arts & Sport, demote McLelland to something beyond foreign affairs and bring in people like Combet and Shorten.
The focus will shift off the economy for the last two weeks of the campaign, much as the government would like to keep it there.
Reason? Both parties still have major announcements on the environment, education and probably health. They have saved some of their most ‘impressive’ announcements for last, and I think they will capture most of the headlines for the next couple of weeks.
Labor is gaining in WA, Labor is gaining in WA, Labor is gaining in WA.
Is there anyway whatsoever that this can be a positive indicator for the Libs?
The reality is that although financial comfort levels for families attached to the resources boom (that Howard didn’t create anyway) are high, the quality of family life is being effected by the switch to fly in fly out two and three week stints. (mining companies used to establish regional communities instead)
The understanding workers are gaining that removing workchoices wont actually reduce wages, but may increase conditions (this message is pronounced in marginals where the ACTU campaign is heavily resourced) is more attractive to someone who doesn’t really “need” a wage increase compared to more time with the wife and kids.
Additionally, through the election campaign, WA voters are now seeing more of Kevin Rudd through nation media than the local conservative media has shown of him previously. An educated rural Queenslander is less of an “eastern stater” than the alternative/alternative PM Peter Costello anyday.
Although WA voters are their own brand, they certainly dont want to be the village idiots of Australia. If polling in other states is showing MASSIVE ALP support, WA people will at least have a closer look at why that is, before just writting it off as “Eastern States” mentality.
The Age website is giving me the …
Quoting Swan as saying that “he can’t gurantee rates won’t go up further” why don’t they ask the same question of Costello – he can’t gurantee it either.
The ALP gets shafted for telling the truth. They’re too ashamed and principled to lie as baltantly as the Coalition does.
158 [Why has productivity gone backwards under workchoices?]
The question really is, why has productivity gone backwards during the reign of the Howard regime? Labor can boast a good record of productivity growth as seen here. See from the first graph what happened when Howard got elected in 1996.
http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/Latestproducts/5204.0Main%20Features602006-07?opendocument&tabname=Summary&prodno=5204.0&issue=2006-07&num=&view=
Time to have a quick break and have a look at Possum’s site.
It’s interesting how the media like to spin these polls. “The Libs gain ground in Tasmanian marginals.’ When you read it the article says Labor is on track to win the 5 seats in Tas.
I agree, Sean @ 169.
Labor definitely needs more attack ads directly countering the Coalition’s ads about Labor’s past record. Surely the campaign team can pull something out. That sort of stuff certainly does resonate out there in the mortgage belt. Letting that sort of stuff go through to the keeper untouched is bordering on political suicide.
Ross Gittens in the SMH is far more reasonable.
http://www.smh.com.au/news/federal-election-2007-news/dont-believe-crocodile-tears/2007/11/07/1194329318917.html?page=fullpage#contentSwap1
Gerr
As i’ve said, if you want to read how workchoices actually effects the economy, read Issue 56 of the Journal of Australia Political Economy, available for free at http://www.jape.org.au
The liberals can pontificate all they like about WA, but the facts are if there is anything like a 6% swing (as shown in the newspoll WA data) on election day they can forget about winning anything at all in WA. In fact, chances are they would lose at least 2 seats with a 6% swing. 6% swing = zilch, zippo, bugger-all for the liberals.
Ralph, hasnt the ALP got those Howard 22% ads running already?
I dont watch commercial TV, so its a question. But Ive seen em on youtube etc. And weren’t people here saying the ALP was running interest rate ads yesterday?
yes, gary bruce, i noted the same thing. after i read the article, i had to recheck the headline, which seemed diametrically opposed to the content!
I don’t watch much commercial TV either. I have seen the SA version of the ads linking fed labor to state labor – absolutely despicable stuff. I just have to hope that people see through that sort of sh*t.
I have become a serious watcher of Sky News since the election has been called though – just can’t get myself away from it!
Kevin on a table talking about interest rates.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fU_P_iJNizg
176 Rates Analyst,
You are dead right… There seems to be a campaign by most of the MSM to put Labor through the ringer, whilst giving those stinking Libs free reign to do what ever they want. There is no doubt in my mind that the MSM wants to polls to narrow, as they can have more interesting stories to report, there for sales and rating will increase.
With Sky News reporting that there is parity in the Newspoll for the state of WA, they made it sound bad for Labor, well I was elated, as I believe that if in this conservative, redneck, pom-filled state, Labor can poll 50/50 from 2004’s 45/55, that means in other states the swing is gonna be huge.
Unemployment has gone up too. I bet the Rodent was looking for some hope from the new figures to spin over the rate rise.
Unemployment rate is up! 4.3 Yay!
187 – “on a table” – thought it was going to be footage of Scores, tbh!!!
Sorry, I do empathise with those looking for jobs for I can’t help celebrating.
ESJ
For a guy who’s meant to be ’smart’ you sure say some dumb things. Apparently a Rudd govt is looking a bit Whitlamesque for you – unions equals norm gallagher and wages break out, Labor equals union control and unrestrained spending. Its like we’re in a time warp. This is the sort of line of thinking that often gets a gig on the letters page of the terrorgraph.
Not sure what you were doing during the Hawke keating years but you’ll find that the check on inflationary wage pressures that Howard had so spectacularly ignited in the late 70s early 80s was achieved primarily through the union movements capacity to look at the broad national interest and link wages growth to productivity gains. It was Labor again who substantially deregulated the IR system and effectively abolished pattern bargaining.
Labor under Hawke Keating were far more economically conservative than the libs have been…..The libs under howard have essentially blown the proceeds of 12 years of growth and a resources boom on middle class welfare and pork….lazily plonking a meager one percent of GDP into surplus to keep the editorial writers of the OZ happy. Howards record as treasurer speaks for itself. Fiscal discipline only really arose during the Hawke Keating years, when, due to a global recession you had to work a lot harder to produce a surplus.
Yo ho
That link not work.
Let’s not forget who the chairman of fairfax is.. oh, that’s right, Ron Walker!
Rising Inflation and Unemployment. It all looks a bit like 1982.
#192 meant but I can’t help celebrating. Every little bit helps now. JWH and Costello are spinning madly turning the rate rise to a plus. SMH editorial today was very pro-JWH.
Linsay Voter – dont feel guilty.
Most of the jobs since serfchoices are crappy re-cycled jobs. Taken by some sucker who’s dropped half-a-life-times salary on getting a visa. Works in the bowels of a Sydney restaurant and needs to commute from a suburb no-ones ever heard of.
Not good seeing that ALP insider saying that Macquaire is a close run thing. I live in the seat (in Bathurst in fact) and Kerry Bartlett (liberal) has his face everywhere. On the other hand, most Bathurstians probably don’t know who the Labor candidate is.
I thought this might have meant that the internal polling was showing that the seat was going to go Labor by a big margin and hence the ALP was focused on other seats, but to hear that it is close is disturbing because the Labor campaign here seems to be low key at best.
By the way, any news on the crikey rumor re: tommorrows Tele?
Why is KR meeting with the news editors? is it related to another smear campaign?
Exactly what sean said (169). Can you foward that advice to Labor campaign headquarters? Seriously.
Anecdotal ‘evidence’ that I hope means SFA.
The cafe where I buy my coffee every morning is owned by a fairly typical small business owner, who would normally vote for Howard. 6 weeks ago he was telling me what a turd Howard is, and that we need someone new.
Now he’s telling me that Rudd is just as bad. When pressed he said that Labor would be disastrous for the country, and when pressed again said because they have no experience. While I went into overdrive with the obvious response that using that logic you would never change government, I was left with the distinct feeling that Labor’s attack lines are simply not cutting through to those not obsessed with the election like most of us on this site.
Left E
I watched some commercial TV last night. The Labor ad on rates is this one http://www.kevin07.com.au/myblog/your-thoughts-on-the-rate-rise.html
It doesn’t address the Lib add which essentially is a rehash of the one they used, to great effect in the last election showing interest rates under previous labor govts. There is certainly no Labor ad that I know of that talks about 22% under Howard in the 80s. It needs to be out there.
Labor should take up the Economy fight head on for the rest of the election and sow seeds of doubt into the electorate so they will question Howards bigger and bigger lies. That will be the final nail.
It’s interesting that with the absence of any poll suggesting a Howard win the only thing the cooalition supporters have to fall back on here are platitudes such as “Howard will win” or “Rudd will be another Whitlam”. Mind numbing isn’t it?
Sean @ 202, check the one I posted before. It was released 2 hours ago.
ND, Portlandbet has Coalition $4.60 in Macquarie, so if insiders from either camp know anything at all, it can only support those odds.
ESJ- Lets face it the ALP always has to do the heavy lifting to move this country forwrd. Always has, always will. Restructuring the Australian economy during the 80′, the Accord, leading the country thru WW2 adfter facing down the appeasers on the Tory side of politics, establishing the modern links with the USA. I could go on and on.
Labor governments are always marked harder not least by the Tory press and coming to power after 11 years will no doubt see some mistakes, maybe lots of mistakes like the 96 Howard Goverment. You can bet Shanners, Madam Lash, Piers Crackerman et al will have a field day.
I will commit a blood sacrifice however if the Tories win the popular vote in the election after this one like Beazley did in ‘98.
The ALP will become the natural party of Government for the 21st century.
A 0.1% rise in unemployment is statistically insignificant. It is essentially no movement.
Unemployment data is complied much like opinion polls, just with much much higher samples.
How about this one?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z1Qt_D2OU7k
Ditto Adrian @ 201.
That is exactly the fear I have too. People that were prepared to vote Labor have had the bejeesus frightened out of them by the Liberal fear campaign. And because Labor is slow to come out with a counter attack, people are taking it in and more of them are actually believing that Labor is a threat to the economy. You can easily see how this, if unchecked, can turn into The Narrowing (ref: Possum).
Oops I mean this one:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fU_P_iJNizg
ESJ
If Rudd leads Labor back from the wilderness he will have the authority to do whatever he likes and put whomever he likes into the ministry.
The analogy with Whitlam just doesn’t wash, old bean. While Labor lost in 1969, that election was seen as a Labor and Whitlam triumph, and Labor was fully expected to win in 1972, especially against an opponent, Billy McMahon, who was widely regarded as a laughing stock, even by his own side.
The contrast with today is palpable. Labor was the depths of despair after 2004, having been led to a terrible defeat by an unstable leader, Mark Latham. In desperation they turned to Kim Beazley, and talked optimistically about a “two term strategy”. When it became clear that under Beazley they weren’t going to achieve the first part of that strategy, some clawback this year, they turned in ultra desperation to Rudd.
To everyone’s surprise, Rudd has been the most effective federal opposition leader since Whitlam, but unlike Whitlam he has done it against a cunning and crafty and never to be underestimated opponent, Howard. And he looks like he is going to win, and win big, in an economic environment where people on the whole have never had it so good.
When it happens on November 24, it will be the most stunning achievement in Australian political history.
In these circumstances, Rudd will have unparelled authority, and he knows it, and he will use it. Already he has said he will over turn the ancient Labor tradition of having the caucus elect the ministry.
Of course, it is true that the world economy is looking very shaky, and it is Labor’s unfortunte destiny to come to office at a time of global economic bad times, as it did in the 1930s and 1970s. The difference this time however is that
the Reserve Bank, a very competent institution, will be able insulate the economy from global economic fall out, the China boom will go on and on, and the fundamentals of the economy are mostly in very good shape regardless including(giving credit where it is due to Howard and Costello) negligible levels of government debt.
Adrian and Ralph-relax. Start worrying when there is a plunge in the Tories odds in the betting agencies .
#168 – there’s still a faded ‘Menzies Out’ visible on the Malvern railway bridge in Melbourne if you know where to look.
210 Ralph – there is nothing in the polling that backs up your fear Ralph.
RGee
Thanks for directing me to that – the blood pressure has dropped significantly. Lets hope it gets a good run on the tv over the next few nights.
ND @ 199 – I live in the seat also (lower Blue Mountains). Hardly anything at all from Bartlett down here. Quite a few Debus signs, plenty of Your Rights @ Work signs. The only Bartlett signs I have seen have been defaced, one with devil horns, the other with red eyes. Gut feeling totally, but I feel Debus will romp it in here.
AEC and independent hopeful in bunfight.
http://abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/11/08/2085149.htm?section=justin
214 – until they re-built the railway bridge over Pendle Hill about 5 or 6 years ago there was a classic “Halt Holt” piece on it.
My efforts to have it heritage listed were unfortunately unsuccessful.
212 Spiros Says: November 8th, 2007 at 12:22 pm
Why do people keep on perpetuating this myth? The world economy isn’t looking shaky at all! It’s looking healthier than it has in 50 years. The US looks shaky, but because the world isn’t as reliant upon american consumer demand anymore, the rest of the world is looking fantastic.
20 years ago the savings crisis in the US would have cripled the world economy. In fact it DID cripple the world economy (the savings and load disasters of the mid-80’s). This time, because of the resilience of the market, and the independence of all of those central bankers, the rest of the market is washing out the problem.
There is nothing wrong with the world economy. Stop saying that there is.
I’m in Port Adelaide – one of the most safe Labor seats in the country. I may as well vote One Nation for all the good my vote will do.
Laurie tells it how it is on rates:
http://news.ninemsn.com.au/article.aspx?id=318542
Ralph you can vote for Labor with the very impressive candidate Mark Butler in Port Adelaide, who is an interesting chap to talk to you, if you have the chance.
How’s Garrett doing?
Turnbull speaking in debate.
abc,net.au/news
Opening statement by Turnbull nothing from Garrett yet
Ralph, vote Labor in the Senate.
I see Butler’s mug on the way to work each morning on one of the many advertising placards around the place. He certainly looks like a sharp and switched on chap.
The fact that people here are cheering on an increase in unemployment rate sickens me. How would you feel if unions rendered you unemployed?
Pi at 220 and Spiros at 212 are both right in their own way. The world economy is still comparatively healthy. It’s just that the engine of growth has changed from the US to the newly emerged China.
However, the ructions in the credit markets and the underlying meltdown in the US housing market, together with spiralling oil prices suggests the risks are building on the downside.
The Asian economies have done well in recent years by recycling their significant trade surpluses into US Treasuries. Asian savings underpinned US consumption, which in turn kept the Asian juggernaut chugging along.
If the US goes into recession, led by a highly indebted household sector, Asia will be exposed. And that will reflect the refusal of many countries in the region to switch from export-driven to domestic-driven growth in recent years.
Australia is but a cork on this ocean.
Ralph and Adrian – Scare campaigns always work to some degree for some voters for some of the time. The LNP have unleashed this tactic much earlier than they would have liked. They needed some traction with everything else failing to deliver. Now, with still two weeks before the media blackout it gives plenty of time for rebuttal and plenty of time for the Lib ads to look very stale and negative.
Madame Ann Ann,
Employers sack people, not unions.
0.1 is statistically irrelevant, but in a campaign carries weight for the forces of Good.
I’m halfway tempted to vote Nick X in the senate and preference Labor 2nd. If Mr X gets up, it’ll almost certainly be at the expense of a Liberal in SA – and that’s a good thing.
Madame Ann Ann: Your ridiculous post sickens me.
Since when have unions had ‘we cause workers to be sacked’ in their core doctrine?
Do you even know what a union is for?
@229 [The fact that people here are cheering on an increase in unemployment rate sickens me. How would you feel if unions rendered you unemployed?]
Well, Madame Ann Anne (aka Tabitha?), to quote Walter Duranty, ‘if you chop trees, chips must fall’
229 [The fact that people here are cheering on an increase in unemployment rate sickens me. How would you feel if unions rendered you unemployed?]
Work for a Tory pollie do you, MAA?
What happened to JWH’s 25 nuclear power plants? I thought he said he didn’t run from a fight? so if he gets re-elected then we will get the 25 nuclear power plants? to scared to mention them now, it might scare the voters.
I hope you’re right, Bryce @ 231. I certainly think the union scare campaign was a bit overblown and people are almost laughing at it. I do like the kitchen table ad from Labor though – I think that will cut through fairly well.
Anyone watching Garrett?
Garrett doing quite well.
Doing very well so far.
Early dispatches form Garrett – Turnbull
Garrett honed in on climate change direct and forcefull and ‘contemporary’ makes Turnbull speech seem very old fashioned and partisan.
Garrett, presenting and speaking very very well. Turnbull old fashioned and repeats boring government lines.
Garrett attacks sleep at wheel Howard gov. v. effective.
My tip – Strong win to Garrett. Garrett out of 10 – 9. Turnbull out of 10 – 6.
237 Brough is measuring up Bribie Island in case there is a Tory win. The other twenty four locations are secret.
Yeah…..he’s doing well. Its when the questions start coming that things will get trickier though.
A very strong opening by Garrett.
Comparison with amount spent on climate change and election advertising great point.
Still only early days. It’s Garrett we’re talking about here. Keep your fingers crossed for no gaffes or slips of the tongue.
229- the tiny tiny upward movement is not stat significant. its not becuase more people have been thrown out of work, the increase is due to more people looking for work. Some of us were just cheering the ‘bad’ news for the Rodent King because that sort of news does not provoke images of tired, huddled masses.
If you want to get really upset about something try the way that employment is measured in this country. If you have worked for 1 hour or more in the week the survey is taken you are counted as employed.
Brilliant Garret speech. 9/10.
Garretts first answer 9/10.
Turnbull rebutt 5/10
Garrett is looking and sounding like a politician.
http://www.theage.com.au/news/National/PM-wants-a-nation-of-opportunity/2007/11/08/1194329375337.html
“as if mining was somehow sub-par and not sufficiently knowledge-based for Mr Rudd’s sensibilities,” Mr Howard said.
Anti intellectualism John? How passe.
I went to see the Keating stage musical at the Seymour Centre last night. The audience seemed to relish the depiction of the “Alexander D” and “Howard” characters which mercilessly pilloried those real life political players.
@248 [If you want to get really upset about something try the way that employment is measured in this country. If you have worked for 1 hour or more in the week the survey is taken you are counted as employed.]
Absolutely. I cannot understand why this point isn’t hammered home by the ALP. What is the unemployment rate if you only count full time hours?
Howard said today “It’s about completing a great national project we have begun. That is completing the transition of Australia from a welfare state to an opportunity society’
Would this Rodent, like to explain to me, how his transition to a non-welfare state is going to occur, when people are now going to lose there house due to his inability to control inflation therefore interest rates, and also explain to me and the extra 0.1% of the population who are trying to find a job in the month of October, but can’t
What a lying piece of shite this Rodent is
To all fans of Cyrius work he go 2 new vids up on youtube!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8BCZF-wr6a8&sdig=1
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yxKjNos-UVA&sdig=1
Enjoy!!
So now it all comes down to whether the people of Australia are stupid enough to believe John Howard’s lies on interest rates again. If not, he and the liberals are heading for oblivion.
Garrett charismatic + dignified after Tony wright’s mishchievous question 8/10
Ralph, what does Nick X have to say on a range of issues? Where’s he coming from? I’m from NSW.
I’m always doubtful about independents as there is usually no policy history.
What does he have to say for himself on say, Iraq, Workchoices etc?
Garrett’s making turnbull look like a plodder…….all this gaff rubbish recently has obscured what a smart operator he is…
Two great roasting questions. Garrett has handled both better of the two. Very funny exchanges so far.
Transitioning away from a welfare state????? who the hell is he kidding? family benefits Part A and B, child care rebates, baby bonus, health insurance rebates, one off carer payments, one off pensioner payments, first home owners grant… etc etc…
This guy is outrageous!!!!
[253] I saw it a while back. I almost cried when he sang “Light on the Hill”.
Oh, how I pine for the days when politicians had real vision and a genuine desire to lead the nation and to make Australia a better place…
For all his faults, and whether you agree with all his views or not, Keating really did have a view of what he saw as a better Australia, which he sought to achieve. In those days, progress seemed inevitable.
None of the current mob even come close… Today, progress has to be fought for.
So far Garrett’s handling questions well. Deserves to be Environment Minister.
What a lot of negative Labor supporters you all are! It seems some of you are literally begging for a 5th Howard victory, so you can beat the crap out of Labor for the next 3 years. Instead of criticism, why not give Kevin Rudd some support?
Well said Sean (169)
I just can’t understand why the ALP is so reluctant to counter the interest rates issue. It should be a strength for them on your points.
I keep hearing the line, “at least they are not 17% as under labor”.
Sometimes they come back with the rejoinder about the 22% under Howard, but rarely.
Those responsible for economic management under the Hawke / Keating era are long gone, yet Howard is still there. So I don’t understand why the ALB find it hard to pin the 22% label onto him, yet are so passive about the 17% tagged onto Rudd when he wasn’t even in parliament at that time.
The Libs will be mad not to run hard on this for the remaining campaign as they don’t have much else. The News Limited papers and most of the TV stations will be quite happy to frame their coverage to the lib agenda. So the ALP had better get some backbone and start some more effective comebacks.
Maybe I am being alarmist as I have been so disappointed with ALP results over the last 11 years. Who knows. I am just frikkin tired of the ALP patting themselves on the back for running good campaigns.
To my mind the ALP’s campaign has been lacklustre. After the debate I thought Howard looked like a shell of a man, with no idea. Now he seems to be coming back as the only person who can handle us in these troubled times and keep interest rates down. I know its a all media bs, but I am not sure Joe sixpack does. I thought their interest rate ads were mediocre. They should mention Howard’s 22%. They should mention average OECD interest rates, and they should mention interest serviceability under the previous ALP government and now.
Turnbull first to snipe – mentions US bases and environment. Then says he hasn’t had to compromise at all (to laughter).
Sadly, Darn (257), the great Australian Voting Public has shown itself susceptible to a good scare campaign time and time again, and as usual that’s all the Govt has going for it. Howard never underestimates the gullibility of his fellow Australians (or do I mean overestimate? I always get confused – you know what I mean!).
The majority of Australians have very little knowledge of what is going on politically or economically, they only have impressions.
Ads dont have time to explain or be perfectly logical they only have to create the impression you want and, quickly with the simplest of messages.
WorkChoices threatens Australians
WorkChoices will hurt your family
WorkChoices, 19th century laws in the 21st century
Howard, economically asleep at the wheel, 11 years and counting.
Howard, wasting Australia’s future
Howard’s promises never go further than empty words
Howard, doesn’t understand interst rates
Howard, what secret plan has he this time?
and so on
oh, a tip for Bushfire Bill, if you get into one of those weird moments were you brain goes kinda fussy and time distorts and every minute seems like an eternity – that’s low blood sugar. Nicotine releases blood sugar from the fat reserves – one of the reasons smokers can go all day without eating, have a snack/fruit juice as quickly as possible but it’ll take around 15-20 minutes before it hits the brain and you’ll normalise.
It’ll take around 10-14 days for your bio-chemistry to normalise. Powerful stuff that nicotine. Also be careful of the caffeine intake – try to halve the coffee your drinking (if you’re a coffee drinker) – once you’ve given up nicotine it’s easy to od on caffeine and get the jitters.
Jumping at shadows a poor man’s tactic:
http://www.theage.com.au/news/opinion/jumping-at-shadows-a-poor-mans-tactic/2007/11/07/1194329315413.html
“The storm over Peter Garrett’s remarks is a sign of the Coalition’s desperation.”
“But a close inspection of his alleged transgressions reveals just one serious error of judgement: he gave a light-hearted reply to a wannabe shock jock who interrupted a private conversation in the Qantas chairman’s lounge.
As Ross Stevenson, a former colleague of Steve Price on 3AW, remarked on air on Monday: “Ninety-nine per cent of journalists you could make an off-the-cuff remark to, safe in the knowledge that they would treat it as a joke and that they would keep your confidence,” Stevenson said. “The one per cent of journalists that would do you in completely is represented by the following words: Steve Price.”
Anyone know when the Garrett- Turnbull thing is over? I get the impression we’re holding our collective breath that he won’t trip over. Good reports so far, thanks.
Malcom’s minders have told him that aggression is a good look….
Look Garrett is okay, Turnbull is the one with troubles, I’m getting kinda sick of the pessimism leading into every Labor/Liberal debate. The Labor team is a smart one – it’s the liberals who are in trouble. The only libs that have survived the last 12 years with Howard are emasculated individuals, no gumption left in the Liberals.
@255
I like your style Bazz
Turnbull always negative and attacking Garrett. Turnbull being asked about gay superannuation, not impressed with anything he said so far.
Garrett is looking sound as a bank. I reckon Faulkner has probably had him locked down for the last couple of days. Parrying Turnbull, and all over his facts and figures. Also coming across as much more personable than Turnbull to my mind, but nothing of great note from either side. Will be called a draw.
# 262
middle man
“Transitioning away from a welfare state????? who the hell is he kidding? family benefits Part A and B, child care rebates, baby bonus, health insurance rebates, one off carer payments, one off pensioner payments, first home owners grant… etc etc…”
So what is JWH saying now,? if re-elected then these and other welfare payments will be scrapped
ALP just gained two percent primary in WA- If that is really the case I think we should close the book on this election. If WA can turn at this stage of the campaign then all hope is lost for the blue bloods.
Hmm, If it’s Midland, then it’s part of Hasluck unless it’s on the Northern line ?
Any clues Julie ?
273 Love the clenched teeth of Turnbull during this debate. Looks like he knows there is just over two weeks before demotion.
Only saw bits of Garret and Turnball.
Did Turnball mention where the nuclear power plants are to go.
I think it would be good if Howard and Turnball advised Australians before hand.
I know Howard says that business will decide where they go, but I think Australians would like to know as they will really lower house values.
That may be OK, maybe the people would be able to buy their first house where the nuclear power stations are, they would be a lot lower priced than other houses. They wouldn’t have to live next to the power station all their life, they could seel it to another first home buyer and then buy their next house away from a power station.
I’ve heard that at least two are going and one in Boothby, there is even a picture of the liberal MP, Southcott, at the beach turning sand over in his hand, on his website.
But I think Howard needs to llok at some sort of compensation for those home owners whose values will drop when the power station is built next to them.
Jude @ 268
Downer continually reminds us that he never “underestimates the intelligence of the electorate.” This is a statement respecting the simple fact that no one likes to be told (or have it suggested on their behalf) that they’re misinformed or gullible or wilfully ignorant or disengaged (and hence easy targets for propaganda and fear campaigns). Whether or not it is a statement that represents the truth about voters and their capacity or willingness to use their brains to question the information they are fed by politicians and the MSM is another matter …
If I was Rudd I would turn Howards welfare to opportunity statement into a scare campaign.
Slash-And-Burnbull is sounding like an also ran!!!
This debate is following the campaign, tactics-wise. Garrett started positively, and even sort of reached out to Turnbull at the beginning defending him against an attack question. Turnbull went negative. Garrett shrugged it off. Now Garrett is confronting him more.
2gb about to talk to Penberthy re Rudd rumour (apparently).
Garrett sounds and has contemporary ideas, Turnbull full of old rhetoric,
At this stage
Garrett 8/10 Turnbull 6/10
Pancho @ 277 – Peter Garrett was up here in Moreton Tuesday night for a climate change meet’n'greet – spoke superbly on that occasion. He’s doing even better today
Burgey Says:
November 8th, 2007 at 1:18 pm
2gb about to talk to Penberthy re Rudd rumour (apparently).
Keep us up to date!!!! I don’t have access to a radio
Mr. Garrett has always done well in these set pieces, I remember not too long ago, he wiped the floor with Turnbull in a 7:30 Report debate… Peter is okay, better than okay.
Hi AM, i was responding to comment 255.
not a chance he’d scrap them!! its one of his main strategies. bash the dole bludgers while handing out more middle class welfare. It has been the major and most enduring of all Howard wedges.
Garrett doing a good job at rebutting Turnbull!
Rudd has got some good shadow ministers: Swan, Gillard, Roxson, Tanner, Smith.
Give Garrett a chance. His only crime was to make a joke with a well known hack radio shock jock with links to the Liberal Party.
Now Turnbull has the fist clenched to match the teeth.
2GB should be renamed Radio Howard: wall to wall anti-Labor propoganda all day from Alan Jones, Ray Hadley and the rest.
Slash-And-Burnbull looks like he’s going to need a jaw reconstruction with all that clenching and grimacing!!!
Frank,
She lives in Toodyay. I do not know what train station she visits in order to make the trip into Perth proper. From her statement, I would only assume that it is in Pearce. HOWEVER, I don’t know the local area obviously, I live in SW Sydney. I can’t assume that the train station is also in Pearce. But living in Toodyay, she would (like any of us would) presumably travel from the station nearest to her. htth
Team Rodent know Garrett is good – that’s why they go so hard on him.
Can one of you clever bunnies remind me what was the rule (and who’s name did it have) that when 2/3 indicators (unemployment, inflation and something else) are rising governments change?
Sorry for my appalling memory
Ahh, so she takes the AvonLink into Midland, which connects with a normal service into Perth, which explains why she gets on at Toodyay, which is indeed LIbs/National heartland as I think Max Trenordan is the local member.
Turnbull summary speech…economy economy economy….
Stark differences in the closing. Garrett positive and forward-looking, Turnbull claiming a need to be strong on the environment. Saying ‘tough’ a lot.
I don’t wanna get ahead of myself, there is afterall, still an election to win… but should Labor win, we’ll be looking at the most talented Cabinet since Hawkie’s first. That’s my impression of the people in the Labor team, they’re real good, smart and committed ppl.
It’s the Liberal’s who have the lightweights… this just hasn’t been revealed over the last 12 years due to the compliant and complacent media. Hopefully, these ministers don’t all lose their seats, if all the Lib ministers are gone… who’ll be there to plot, scheme, background, backstab… nah, please let enough Liberal ministers keep their seats!
is there a worm rating the Garret vs Turnbull?
i’ve been listening on news radio – garrett is good and turnbull sounds boring, not that i’m biased or anything.
i was nervous about garrett saying something stupid but he’s been most excellent…
HH @ 296, they’re preaching to the converted.
#Xamiam @ #300
It called the Sawford Formula….link here….
http://www.ozpolitics.info/guide/elections/fed2007/the-sawford-formula/
I think this is what you are looking for.
Garrett focused on Climate change and won Turnbull tactically was ahead cause he mentioned water.
Turnbull had some tactical success, but it was a polished Garrett strategic win, and one that will resonate with Greens and the majority who have recently indicated how big the Clim Change issue is.
Garrett
8
Turnbull
6.5
Changing the subject, from the gaffe-masters Turnbull and Garret, Labor now has the opportunity to hammer home to message that Howard has given us the trifecta: rising inflattion, rising unemployment and rising interst rates.
We have a contender for cheapest promise of the campaign – it was reported in today’s Financial Review that Mal Brough had promised, if re-elected, to have a new post box installed at Sandstone Point on Bribie Island.
Slash-And-Burnbull’s prescription for combatting climate change: try and trick and bully other countries into giving Australia soft targets!!!
BRILLIANT!!!!!!
Thx Sondeo – that is the very one
Garrett carried himself very well I thought and he’ll only improve with the experience.
Garrett 10/10 and Turnbull 8/10. Turnbull gets marked down for defensive answers and his negative comments about Labor and Peter taking a higher priority than his positive answers (of which he had some). But Peter pointed out, rightly so, in his conclusion that a government of climate change skeptics can not be counted on to deliver honest change going forward.
Bob Brown said Peter had the edge
:)
Best debate yet
301 Frank,
Ok, so now we have front line reports of Lib/National heartland changing their tune
….. thanks for working with me to sort that one out, if the locals are writing that sort of graffiti at a train station, it certainly means more in a Lib/National seat 
…..
Spiros at 310,
I wonder whether the increase in unemployment is related to expectations of an interest rate rise. While employment is up, the increase in unemployment means an increase in participation rate – possibly due to previously stay at home mums and dads looking for some extra money. Pure speculation of course.
As some here have already said, ALP campaign ads need to flag the 22% rates when Howard was treasurer.
Their current interest rate ads are not countering the Libs’ withering attack successfully. It’s like listening to the first speaker on a high school debating team get killed by the rebuttal. He was a good first speaker, but he’s suddenly irrelevant, because everyone’s got the rebuttal in their mind now.
That’s why they need a second ad to counter the Lib’s deceit. It can be done very simply: rates are going up and up and up under Howard. How high could they go? Try 22% high. The highest of any government in modern Australian political history etc etc
Good (on-air) quote from Ross Stevenson last Monday:
“Ninety-nine per cent of journalists you could make an off-the-cuff remark to, safe in the knowledge that they would treat it as a joke and that they would keep your confidence … The one per cent of journalists that would do you in completely is represented by the following words: Steve Price.”
305 Frank,
No. No worm, I think that the worm only shows up for major debates and it seems to be only at those in which Channel 9 is also broadcasting. Anyone know if 9 has a copyright over the little guy?
……
does anyone have further info on the penberthy i/view on 2GB?
Unemployment rises, but PM warns it would be dire under Labor:
http://www.livenews.com.au/Articles/2007/11/08/Unemployment_rises_for_the_first_time_since_February
As I said in my earlier post JWH is predictable he has twisted the 4.3% unemployment rate against Labour.
It is time for Labor to go for the knockout punch on Howard enough is enough.
Burgey Says:
November 8th, 2007 at 1:18 pm
2gb about to talk to Penberthy re Rudd rumour (apparently).
Any further news on this?
Nothing yet form Penberthy. And I’ve now had to listen to 20 minutes of 2gb malarkey (sp.?)
#287 Burgey do you know what time? Just tuned into 2GB on-line, not sure how long I can force myself to listen to that channel.
Excellent ‘debate’, noted for it’s respectfulness for each other and putting forward their respective policy positions forcefully and coherently.
If Turnbull takes the chance to rebuild a defeated Liberal party it will be an interesting political scene in years to come.
They need some nice neat graphs like the ones Howard and Costello had ready to trot out yesterday, except starting earlier with the Howard-as-Treasurer years. Also graphs showing interest rates not just in isolation but as an increasing proportion of household income.
thank you Julie @ 320
Mr. Turnbull won’t be _given_ the chance to rebuild the Liberal Party, he’s more hated by his own than by Labor.
322 [But the Prime Minister has warned more Australians would be on the dole queue if Labor wins power.]
I think he means Liberal Party staffers. They have been warned by Howard, best get down to centrelink before the rush sets in.
yes, lindsay voter, i’ve forced myself to tune in. don’t know how long i’ll be able to cope with it. it sounds so….alien.
They are moving onto Stage 2 and plastering Hockey’s office this weekend
:)
*****
Dear friends,
Last week a whopping 20,000 of you told the Government where you stand on WorkChoices – thank you!
We can now proceed with the second stage of our campaign! This Friday we’ll be in North Sydney to plaster IR Minister Joe Hockey’s office in our massive ‘Know Where We Stand’ post-it notes – and you are invited – but before the weekend’s out we want to be sure we can proceed to stage 3.
Can you help us get to 30,000 post-it notes by telling your friends and colleagues with this link – or by forwarding them the email below?
http://www.getup.org.au/campaign/KnowWhereIStand&id=199
Join us this Friday 9 November, at 12.30 in Sydney at Mr Hockey’s office on the corner of Myrtle St and Pacific Hwy, Crows Nest – or in several electorates around the nation on Saturday, 10 November. Click here for details
Only two weeks out from the federal election, these politicians need to know in no uncertain times where we stand on unfair workplace laws. Saturday is the second anniversary of the laws’ introduction into the Senate, so we’d love to see you there telling those responsible we don’t want it to turn three.
If you’re new to GetUp you’ve joined over 200,000 fellow Australians working towards a better future on a range of issues of national importance, including protecting our rights at work. Welcome!
The GetUp team
P.S: Read about and watch the stories of real people affected by the Howard Government’s workplace laws here
Hi,
I’ve just joined over 20,000 Australians sending our politicians a personalised “Know Where I Stand” post-it note for WorkChoices’ 2nd birthday! If we reach 30,000, we are going to stick a giant post-it note at every polling booth in Joe Hockey’s electorate on election day November 24. Join us by putting your name to a post-it note here. It only takes a second:
http://www.getup.org.au/campaign/KnowWhereIStand
Right now our politicians are all facing the sack – at the hands of their bosses; us the voters. After this year’s taxpayer-funded avalanche of post-it notes telling you to know where you stand, you might want a chance to tell our politicians where you actually do stand. Tell them you want a fair future for Australia that protects hard-won rights and job security. It’s simple just click here:
http://www.getup.org.au/campaign/KnowWhereIStand
Thanks!
I meant “interest payments” not “rates” @ 327. Sorry.
Someone mentioned that Labor supporters seem overly pessimistic, even in the face of strong polls and what appears to be a likely victory coming up. But over the last 11 years, Labor supports have watched election after election slip away through a combination of poor policies, poor campaigning and strategic miscalculations against a cunning rodent. It’s very hard to escape the thought that it could be happening again.
To use Rudd’s marathon analogy, the ALP is well in front with the finishing line in sight. But a hardened veteran is breathing down his neck threatening to launch a challenge for the title. The problem is that it’s been so long since the ALP has won a race that it’s almost as if they’ve forgotten how to finish the race off. They seem almost afraid to try anything for fear it might be the wrong move and the Rodent comes rushing past and . It reminds me very much of the English cricket team in the Ashes last year – continually finding a way to lose from a position of strength.
That would make even the most hardened ALP supporter wonder whether it was going to go the way of the dogs again.
Check out the Climate Change Institute’s poll on attitudes to CC in marginal electorates:
http://www.climateinstitute.org.au//index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=116&Itemid=1
Why isn’t labor banging this can harder? (and doesn’t it show what a stuff-up Garrett and Rudd made of the issue last week)
Ed
I totally agree.
If these two rise to leadership of their respective parties in the future, we will be all better off for this.
329 Many of those who hate Turnbull look like they will lose. There is a new dynamic starting to show itself. Also there are many Liberal wets looking for a more comfortable home.
Not sure what time. Someone had told me it would be on at 1.20pm. Nothing doing.
Portland betting odds on Bowman:
COALITON 1.85
ALP 1.85
Isn’t it time the MSM started paying attention to this seat?
“If Turnbull takes the chance to rebuild a defeated Liberal party it will be an interesting political scene in years to come.”
Wentworthian voters might make that a very difficult proposition indeed. I’d personally like to see either Gary Hardgrave, Andrew Laming or Ross Vasta have a crack at rebuilding the party. No backward-thinking mediocrity amongst that mob.
It’s not so much pessimism about the campaign, and indeed there is a need for great wariness regarding Mr. Howard. Beyond this though, the team Labor has assembled for its front bench is superior in intellect and quality to the Liberal front bench, this group of ppl wiill remain superior even if Labor lose the election. The Liberal front bench is a wasteland – there is nothing to fear in debates.
Howard wrongfooted.
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/news/national/unemployment-numbers-wrongfoot-pm/2007/11/08/1194329376026.html
Rudd on 702 this morning said ‘get your skates on, next couple of weeks we’ve got a lot coming your way’ (I’m paraphrasing). So let’s hope he can round off the campaign (which PG aside has been pretty solid thus far) with some good parting blows.
As for NSW, let’s give discredit where it’s due: Iemma is a clown. Much of the local hustings talk here has been to point the finger at the state government as it lurches from one embarrassment to another. If we’d had a Beattie, maybe local polling would be a different story.
Turnbull’s my local member. I’ll certainly be voting Labor, but I must give Turnbull his credit. He is a very good local member – he even went to the trouble of ringing me and speaking to me for 40 minutes about the whole David Hicks thing some months ago. Admittedly, my letters must have seemed a bit unrelenting.
A lot of what he said was very interesting – and it was obvious why he was reluctant to put his views in a letter to me. The phone was safe, and off the record.
I hope he loses his seat, but then wins next time and becomes opposition leader
2GB – up next apparently (after more ads).
David pemberthy next on 2GB!
[338] Maybe after Rudd’s meeting with News Limited’s editors today, the interview about the rumours was cancelled?
Dave55 @317
The increase in unemployment is of no real consequence, but it is the optics that matter in an election campaign.
Labor should say, again and again, that the economy has peaked under Howard and Costello; inflation, unemployment and interest rates have either stalled or are getting worse; these guys have run their race; and its time for New Leadership to take the country forward, blah, blah, blah.
ok lindsay, keep us up to date … hope he wasn’t lying through his teeth to Crikey yesterday …..
“[If you want to get really upset about something try the way that employment is measured in this country. If you have worked for 1 hour or more in the week the survey is taken you are counted as employed.]
Absolutely. I cannot understand why this point isn’t hammered home by the ALP. What is the unemployment rate if you only count full time hours?”
But of course they won’t, because Labor will keep the same unemployment-counting system. If they changed it, unemployment would instantly rise under Labor. We’re stuck with this stupid system, that will always downplay the real level of unemployment.
340 I agree they can be included in the new look Liberals. As much as this election is about Howard it should also be about having a forward looking modern government and an opposition that can promote viable alternatives.
Even if Turnbull loses Wentworth he will pop up somewhere else and very quickly.
DOCS Bashing on Radio Gloria
Ralph at 221:
Try living in Kennedy. I may as draw a flower on my ballot paper, and turn it into a paper plane.
Rumor now on…
michael, i’ve always had the feeling that turnbull’s way too intelligent to be in the liberal party.
Penberthy just hosed out the Rudd rumour. Nothing to it.
He said he saw Rudd this morning and asked him, and “Rudd said he was hoping I could tell him”.
Phew!!
Yeah, everyone ‘not of the Liberals’ might like Mr. Turnbull, no problem there but the Liberals themselves don’t like Turnbull. And sure, some internal anti-Turnbull’s might be leaving Parliament but some anti-Turnbulls are coming in – Mr. Hawke for instance, the evangelical right of the Liberals are cashed up, powerful and spoiling for a fight! All power to them!
If Turnbull gets back in and I think he will, if it is opposition he will have a big chance of becoming leader. Costello will be associated with defeat and the smirk will look goofy not arrogant when he is out of power. Remember Rudd was seen as marginal chance just a month or so before he won the leadership.
One thing you can say about Rudd is that he had the guts and timing to go to his locker and get his Gun. Turnbull might to in a month or so get his GUNN to make a pun
It can’t be anything much… it’s almost time for 2pm news
Kevin Rudd told David pemberthy that he has no skeletons in his cupboard. Basically DP said there’s nothing to the rumour.
penberthy says there’s nothing at all in it.
And now Penberthy giving it to Price for dobbing Garrett in for what was obviously a joke!!!
Pure gold. Alan will not be pleased!!!
Pemberthy states again there is no rumor/story.
Also attacks Steve Price (at 2UE, so helping 2GB) for verbaling Garrett over “the change it all” ‘gaffe’.
It’s the pro-Labor show!!!
Last time something strange was happening in Victoria.
This time it is NSW!
Hawke is the devil (Alex Hawke, that is)
Pemberthy sounded almost human. But we weren’t fooled.
Penberthy says “Crikey rarely getthings right.”
I think any Labor supporter on here would be lying if they said they didn’t feel a little nervous about the next couple of weeks. Knowing how Australians generally fell for Howard’s deception over interest rates in the last election, seeing it all come up again is unnerving. Will Australians fall for it again, believing once more that interest rates would skyrocket if Labor won government? News Ltd seem to want everyone to believe this…
But, I wonder how much of the government’s vote last time really came down to their interest rate scare. It seems that the vast majority of people believe that governments don’t have a lot of control over interest rates (according to Newspoll).
Much of the vote probably came down to personality. A lot of people simply didn’t like Latham. They thought that he wasn’t right for the job of PM. I know several people today who are passionate about a change of government but who didn’t like Latham last time around and voted against him, either for Howard or some other party.
At any rate, I do agree that Rudd needs to get a little more cunning from this point on. I don’t think he necessarily has to counter every scare campaign against him with something of equal intensity. But I do think he needs to start shining. He has got to start talking up the vision-thing. Howard would love nothing more than to talk about interest rates all the way up to election day – he has nothing much else to talk about – but Rudd has to take control of the agenda. He has set it for much of the year. Howard has been the follower. And he needs to get back to doing this.
Rudd a few months ago had a beer or two with David Pemberthy and other Daily Telegraph journos. The Telegraph in Sydney is going to endorse a Rudd Labor Govt shortly.
Hmm, and no Tips & Rumours in Today’s Crikey either……..
Bryce at 259
Mr X is anti-Workchoices, but I don’t think has made a stance on Iraq. His policy platforms in South Australia have generally revolved around cutting political perks and decreasing pokie numbers. His main policies for this election seem to be getting Workchoices wound back, influencing pokie numbers and fighting for SA on water policy. Small target stuff really. Since he’s been in SA Parliament for quite a while now, he has got a fair bit of policy history about, and a fair amount of respect for actually sticking to his principles.
He comes across as a genuinely likeable guy, and knows how to use a good gimmick for votes. At the last election, the major parties in South Australia tried to squeeze him out on preferencing, and a lot of the publicity derived from that probably helped to give him a large primary vote. Even though I disagree with some of his policies, that he actually sticks to them is something I respect him for.
I feel for Ralph, I’d thought for the last year that I’d moved into Port Adelaide and my vote was not going to count, but it turns out that I just scraped into Hindmarsh, where at least the seat is marginal.
HH – reallly? I thought the telegraph was anti-labor?
Bloody Wall St down 3ish %. All the stars a aligning for Howard to scare everyone about the economy. I am expecting further poll narrowing as a result. I have a feeling the little tird will scrape back in…
355 Noone is saying his task wouldn’t be fraught with frustration and even take a while to achieve but someone has to achieve it for the sake of the country. Extremists both left and right are being weeded out slowly, just far too slowly from the far right. This election may be a catalyst.
God – all the assumptions you have to make to write that sentence!!!
Yeah, Mr. Hawke will swing in behind Mr. Abbot for a couple of years… that’s where the power will be…
If Mr. Turnbull loses Wentworth… he won’t be back. (I’d like to use the souffle not rising twice line… but that _would_ be unfair to Turnbull – he’s not a souffle… but even a re-heated steak doesn’t taste so good (okay, okay- I’m no Keating!! : ))
So I was playing with Anthony Green’s election calculator, and it proves that if the QLD and SA swing alone is replicated the ALP will win… Check this out.
http://www.abc.net.au/elections/federal/2007/calculator/?swing=state&national=5.7&nsw=0&vic=0&qld=11.1&wa=0&sa=12.4&tas=0&act=0&nt=0&retiringfactor=1.5
I’ve just cleared a bunch of comments from moderation.
If anybody saw the front page of the Telegraph you would know that it was terrible for Howard. Big headline, criticising Howard for rise in rates.
365 Noocat,
That is the million dollar question, isn’t it? How much of the Coalition’s vote/majority in the last election was merely the “anti-Latham” vote as opposed to the “pro coalition” vote? I think that there was much more of the anti-Latham vote out there than Howard and company would like to believe. They want to assume that the millions who voted for them would readily do so again.
NOT ………
Margins of error are heaps higher for state or even seat swings. With a sample of 600, MOE is about +/- 4, so a poll of 56-44 will be in the range of 52-58 vs 48-42. The MOE for a poll of 1700 is approx 2, so look at the overall figure for the poll. But if you have 3x 600 sample polls, and they show the same thing, AND there is no reason why they should be different, then take the average and assume that it is really a 1800 person poll with MOE =2.
Also remember that 1 in every 20 polls will be outside MOE. If we get 40 polls of all types during the campaign, at least a couple, and on average 2, will be outside this MOE. No way of knowing for sure, but we can guess by looking at polls which buck the trend.
By a stats graduate.
Note to self: must not get worked up ever again over Crikey tips and rumours. Bloody Crikey!
Spiros,
I don’t disagree; rather it was more a comment on the potential social impacts of an interest rate rise and it’s effect on participation rather than concern about unemployment increasing. It would be interesting to see if there was any research on the reasons for people returning to the job market.
My own view is that the coalition has done SFA on economic management and instead cruised along on the macro reforms introduced under Hawke and Keating. Howard and Costello’s comments about WC is that is has very little to do with improvements in the job market. The lack of investment in education etc is going to come back an haunt the Coalition (hopefully this election!!).
HH @ 369,
If that happens, it will be HUGE here in Sydney as heaps of the Liberals here read only the DT and not much else …….
The Howard apologists denial of 22% home mortgage rates under Howard is typical of the way they weasel out of things on technicalities. Yes official owner occupied rates were pegged at 12 or 13 % but you had to wait years to get a loan at that rate as the banks rationed what would have been loss making loans, the cost of money was in excess of 20%. If you needed to put a roof over your head as a matter of urgency you had to get a commercial loan which was at 22%. Labor need to get someone who paid 22% for an owner occupied home in 82 in a commercial calling Howard tricky for not fessing up to that rate on his watch.
More importantly interest rates then were directly related to government settings as in the highly regulated banking system the supply and cost of money was controlled by treasurer,John Winston Howard
Agreed. Their headline today was “Not as sorry as we are”… in reference to Howard saying sorry about rate rise.
Noone reads the editorial recommendations. Except weirdos like us
Doog @ 371. From all reports, Hindmarsh is set to swing pretty big.
Turnball said nothing about the nuclear power stations, then?
That is disappointing, although Howard said they are 10-15 years away, it does take about ten years to build one.
We could see the sites identified as early as late next year to start the process.
I think Mr Howard should offer compensation to home owners of about $150,000 like he did to the hobby farmers. The house values are going to drop by at least $100,000 when it is picked as being next to a power station, the other $50,000 can help with moving costs.
Howard should put forward this compensation package as an election promise, it will ease the worry of a lot of people about house values decreasing.
Does anyone get the impression the Terror might endorse Rudd this time around?
Julie, I guess we’ll soon see when the next string of polls come out.
If the interest rate scare stuff really does bite, then it will have to show up quickly in the polls. The government’s television ads have been hammering away since yesterday and will probably continue for a while longer.
HH
I tend to endorse anyone I have a beer with too…I read the tele today and was surprised at the anti howard stance on rates. I think you might be right.
Hey all, back from a lovely relaxing holiday. I guess I missed something about Crikey rumours, can someone please fill me in?
I have noticed a distinct shift in the DT’s editorial tone in the past week. The switch is on. CM will endorse as well. Probably the advertiser… the Oz…. wheellllllll…….. i can’t be so sure about that freak show.
So there’s no rumour? Whew, that’s a relief!
Sam K @ 373, surely it’s still better than if the picture were rosy? Then Howard would really have an argument against changing government. It’s just his tactic to walk both sides of the street, whether it’s the sunny side or the tsunami side.
Howard’s admission he is (and will continue if re-elected) dismantling the welfare state gets a run in the Australian:
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22723567-601,00.html
Samuel K Says:
November 8th, 2007 at 2:03 pm
Bloody Wall St down 3ish %
3% swing in the market is really not that much these days. A couple of months ago the dow made up a 300 hundred day intra fall in around 1 hour just before the close so a lot of copy had to be rewritten. The Dow could just as easliy be up 4 percent tomorrow.
But for what it is worth over the next 6 months I would short the market in a big way
G’day All
What are the rumors about Rudd?
check this out! Howard says sorry is not an apology!!
http://www.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/story/0,22049,22723941-5001028,00.html
I don’t think the Herald Sun here in Melbourne will endorse a Labor government. Apart from a couple of exceptions, pro-Liberal spin has been alive and well and continues right up to today. The Age, however, will endorse a Labor government, I am sure of that.
Noocat @ 365,
Labor camp nervous!? yYes, may be so! Who wouldn’t?! Who dare to show the sign of hubris?
On the other camp though. the Libs would die for the situation be reversed: in favour from both polls and punters.
Who is more nervous now?
JOM, Rumor is that Rudd will be voted in as PM in just over two weeks time.
Well you can forget The West endorsing the ALP – Hell would have to freeze over befor Paul Armstrong endorses the ALP ANYWHERE.
Paul Murray was today rabbiting on about How Howard can benefit from the Rates Rise.
And read this from the the Pro Howard Cheerleaders in WA.
http://www.thewest.com.au/default.aspx?MenuID=28&ContentID=44702
I’ve heard the Herald Sun in Melbourne has been a lot more favourable to Rudd since the new editor took over.
Don’t underestimate the power of those News Ltd tabloids: voters in marginal seats read them. An endorsement or two would help Rudd immeasurably.
When is Rupert arriving back in Oz?
Sean @ 391. It’s not the first. Not so long ago they had a headline “This man stands to lose his house” and it was a picture of Howard. So I gather.
middle man @ 399
Oh please, Howard, keep arguing that line!
“What are the rumors about Rudd?”
There’s a strong whisper that he will win the election.
MM @ 399, more weasel words. How surprising.
I said I was sorry they [interest rate rise] occurred. I don’t think I used the word apology,” Mr Howard said.
Please let Labor have this on tape… if this isn’t the core of an attack ad I don’t know what is!
The thing about endorsements from tabloid media (like the tele) is that they are generally read by people who aren’t that interested in politics (or anything else for that matter). Swinging voters tend to fall into that category so its always better to look at the commercial news, current affairs and tabloid media if you want to gauge media reaction that actually bites in terms of party support.
The people who read that Age, or SMH (and to a lesser extent the GG which is really a broadsheet tabloid in many respects) tend to think about politics a bit and have made up their mind ages ago……Thats why i don’t really care much about the GGs desperate bleetings – no one reads it anyway
Frank, love the gender balance in the Perth rag.
will @ 392. In Crikey’s tips and rumours a few days ago, some reporter said that they had a rumour about rudd which will be published tomorrow. The Scores incident was very pale in comparison allegedly. We all got very nervous but the editor of the Tele said there’s nothing to the rumour. Also Rudd told DP he has no skeletons in the cupboard. Phew.
That has got to be game set and match. Now THAT is hubris!!!
Ralph @ 387
I’ve seen the Advertiser polling (which is not worth much) showing a rout and based on a large state-wide swing, and Georganas being the sitting member gaining the personal vote this election, I’d be surprised if Hindmarsh doesn’t get classified as safe Labor on November 25. It will be interesting to see if any demographic changes in Glenelg unsettle what is normally a Liberal stronghold in the seat.
JR @ 409
I don’t think the ALP needs to rerun this as Howard is coming up with them himself about once or twice a week. Last week it was – ‘you have to say it twice for it to be true’.
The mortgage belt trusted Howard, borrowed heavily, and are now getting whacked.
Those very “Howard Battlers” are now picking up their baseball bats, and on the 24th they will be renamed the “Howard Batterers”.
One battered Rodent coming soon!
Mr. Rudd will me too the appology thing too.
Ohh I want to know what the rumor about Rudd is!
HH, I agree that the Herald Sun is not quite as rabid in its support of all-things-Howard that it once was. But it is by no means backing Rudd. And generally seems to give support to the Liberal narrative.
On a positive note, if some non-marginal metropolitan seats are under threat of being lost by the Liberals, then it is the The Age that will have the greater influence. This is what the upper-middle class voters of Melbourne tend to read.
417 JOM Please keep up. The rumor is that Rudd will win the election.
John of Melb, its nothing. The editor said so himself on radio about 30 mins ago.
JoM, the rumour is that he is set to become our next PM. Oh, sorry, that’s not rumour, that’s statistical analysis.
From GG article @ 396
“The prime minister, speaking as the latest figures showed unemployment still at its 33- year low level of 4.2 per cent, again said that getting a person a job was the cornerstone of the economic fabric of the nation.”
Looks like someone jumped the gun on the article.
417 JOM – ABC has just broken it! Rudd’s most important flesh press of the campaign. It must be a big bed!
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/11/08/2085368.htm
Doog, I think you’re right. I actually work in Hindmarsh, so I feel like its my second electorate. Plenty of ‘Howard battlers’ in Hindmarsh that I suspect have been waiting to come back to the ALP for a while. Now that Rudd offers a safe option, I think I’ll go to Labor fairly handsomely.
Noocat @ 368 – couldn’t agree more. It’s the packaging of politics that matters unfortunately. Personality is a major factor. Although Beazley was very unlucky in 1998, he couldn’t really shake the ‘fat’ huffing and puffing image in my opinion. Latham was a disaster. Rudd has this cult of personality that seems to be holding pretty strong.
I could be incredibly dumb today but the rumour by Penberthy is that Labor will the election?
Wow. Some rumour… or is it fact-to-be?
When I heard “rumour”, I thought it had to be about something bad or negative, as most rumours and scuttlebutt are.
Then again, this is typical Daily Errorgraph sensationalism.
Next.
LOL. I predict “Saying sorry is not an apology” is going to be front and centre of political news tonight. (Although the real headlines will probably be about the school shooting in Finland).
Anyway, this is gold (as they say). How to make yourself look even trickier, by JWH.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22723941-12377,00.html
Correction to last post: …. that Labor will WIN the election?
Nah, enough with the baseball bats! If Mr. Howard has given us anything over the last 11 years it’s been a renewed respect and love of our Australian tradtions… there’ll be no baseball bats on the 24th Mr. Howard… will be done in by cricket bats! Faux nationalism will never taste so sweet.
Who do you trust to give a sincere apology?
http://news.brisbanetimes.com.au/pm-denies-apologising-for-rate-rise/20071108-18t4.html
“381
Jude Says:
November 8th, 2007 at 2:05 pm
Note to self: must not get worked up ever again over Crikey tips and rumours. Bloody Crikey!”
Good one, Jude. Part of learning how to not sweat the small stuff is refusing to have your chain jerked by rumour-mongering imbeciles ever desperate to boost their site’s traffic for the gratification of grasping sponsors/advertisers.
—————————————–
If Petit Mal can’t out-debate/perform Gaffe Garrett on the environment at a cosy Press Club chowdown, it doesn’t behove the former merchant banker well as a prospective Liberal Opposition leader, even if he retains Wentworth.
Remember the triple goose he made of himself in the heat of the last parliamentary Question Time? So did the those who will vote for a new trump when El Rodente bites the dust on Nov.24.
KR @ 416 ‘the things that batter’ in a whole new context!
As I’ve mentioned before, the liberal candidate in Hindmarsh, Rita Bouras, is particularly uninspiring. Steve Georganas is a good local member, and although an MP for only one term, he stood unsuccessfully in 1998 and 2001 so has a much larger recognition factor than being a one term MP would suggest. It would be a brave person to suggest a margin for Georganas of less than 7 or 8% after this election has been done and dusted.
Kirribilli Removals, I believe Lord Downer had something to say on that subject a few years ago. The things that….?
El Nino @ 423 – Do you think it was word from Uncle Rupert? Cozzie, we’re no longer supporting you. Kevinator, you da man!
Speaking of editorials, has anyone tortured themselves by reading the smh’s attempt today? You’d think they got Costello in write it. Total, pro Government dross. It makes me wonder what sort of an organisation Fairfax is, when it would obviously know the sorts of people who read it, yet it spins an editorial somewhere to the right of the soup spoon. Argh.
Australia 69-1, Hayden just fell for 43. Jacques on 22, Ponting in now.
better get out the trusty grey nicholls… it needs a new grip. wouldn’t want the bat to turn in my hand on impact.
Maybe Howard is buttering up the electorate for when he finally decides to say sorry to the aborigines and the Stolen Generation. He can point to the fact he said sorry about interest rate rises, but he didn’t apologise, so when he leads the country in saying sorry it won’t really mean we apologise.
RGee @ 435 – Some votes are worth more than others.
It’s a shame the rumour is not true. I ws kind of hoping it was a sex tape with Kate Ellis.
Fulvio: ironic, huh?
I’m thinking about getting a new bat… Slazenger has a model out which is particularly apt… “The Don” …
“Magnificent edges and unparalleled Weight Balancing Technology (WBT) makes ‘The Don’ the biggest bat in the Slazenger range. Slazenger’s unique Rapid Compression System (RCS) rubberised cork handle combines supreme comfort with exceptional strength. The revolutionary, laser etched, face is superbly complemented by the Grade 1 Metalic stickers and Rapid Traction Control (RTC) rubber grip. If you want to play like the worlds best, play with the worlds best, ‘The Don’.”
Mmmmm… this will do just fine…
Universal assumption that Xenophon will poll very well, is this overstated? Success at one level does not automatically equal success at another. Howard in 2007 is in better shape than the SA Libs at the state election, did much of X’s vote come from dispirited Libs in 2006?
I have an original SS Jumbo ready. Off to buy some linseed oil….
Here is one of the several meanings of “sorry”, from the Macquarie Dictionary: “a conventional form of apology for injury or inconvenience caused.”
Interesting to note, though, that “non-core” hasn’t made it to the official recorder of the Australian language yet!
ND – yeah the SMH editorial was almost worse than anything I’ve seen in the OZ. People were speculating here recently that the SMH would endorse labor – I think there’s as much chance of that as the Exclusive Brethren endorsing Labor. The editorial as good as says that the coalition is the sure pair of hands the economy needs – in other words that Howard should be rewarded for the interest lies with another term. It was a straight lift from a lib party strategic memo….pathetic
http://www.thewest.com.au/aapstory.aspx?StoryName=434858
Chairman of Fairfax = Ron Walker
CEO of Fairfax = Some rugger playing prat that was an adviser to the National’s last PM in NZ
Not an ALP loving organization.
Mr X is quite popular here in SA, and whilst I don’t think he will scale the heights seen at the 2006 state election, I really can’t see him having any trouble achieving a quota, one way or another.
Now HERE’S another poll we can all look forward to with great interest:
“THE Sunday Telegraph Galaxy Poll this week will exclusively reveal if Malcolm Turnbull will lose his seat. Our poll will reveal just how close the run to the finish line will be. With only a 2.5% swing needed for the high-profile Environment Minister to be uprooted, the border redistribution Wentworth has undergone is sure to have an impact on how voters react to this week’s interest rate rise. And if he manages to pull a rabbit out of the hat, do Turnbull’s own constituents believe their member is capable of leading the Liberal party and becoming the next Prime Minister.”
If the SMH endorses Howard I am definitely cancelling our subscription.
hopefully lateline will leak it on friday
I seem to remember that Hawke met with Uncle Rupert before the 1983 election. After the election the process euphemistically became known as ‘consensus’.
And for the quadrella… here’s the SMH take on ‘not sorry John’.
I love the photo with the Union Jack…
http://www.smh.com.au/news/economy/no-im-not-sorry-says-pm/2007/11/08/1194329384678.html
These guys are amazingly good fun to watch lately…
Truer words were never spoken, “”We’re to blame for the strong economy,” he said.
“We accept full responsibility for the strong economy – we’re proud of it.”
JWH has badly miscalculated in believing that the poll in News.Com saying that the majority of people don’t blame him for the rate rise.
This poll was spammed by the Liberal party hacks and didn’t truly represent the true feeling in the community.
Now he was walked into his own rat trap by saying he didn’t apologise about rising interest rates.
All we need now is a few more rat traps.
I’ve just been informed that the subprime business in the US is about to take on casualties in Australia. Local commercial Corporate lender can’t receive the overseas funds for on lending to local borrowers. A number of property settlements can’t proceed.
Hmmm…
378 BenC
Yep, I saw the DT this morning. A screaming headline blaming Howard. NOT a good look. Quite a surprise to see this, but definitely justified.
Mr X may struggle for just that reason, the Libs in 2006 were pitiful at best. I believe a lot of his votes came from disaffected voters from both parties. Also, that election was a government in control being re-elected easily. This time round, the electorate could be more polarised. Lib voters trying to save their skins, while Labor voters out in force to ditch the rodent. If the Newspoll primary figures for SA are to be believed, I don’t know if Mr X’s primary support is going to hold up. While striking for a preference deal with FF might help his chances after redistribution, it’s enough to make prospective voters (i.e. me), vote someone else.
I live in Wentworth. While Turnbull’s low margin and the boundary redistribution always get a mention, they don’t add that the conservative vote was split last time when the previous local member, Peter King, decided to run as an independent. There won’t be that sort of interference this time.
Speaking of Radio Gloria, here is a comparison of it’s Breakfast Ratings.
2UE’s Breakfast Show is Left leaning compared to The Parrot on 2GB.
http://www.smh.com.au/news/tv–radio/its-over-fitz-does-his-dash-at-dawn/2007/11/08/1194329381177.html
as for WA media
bwhahahahah
oh dear
its sooo sad
My mother just ran into Bob Hawke on the Hustings – in Manly (seat of Mackella – tony abbots seat). If labor think thats a possiblity with a swing of 15% needed it would be amazing – but probably Bob doing the local candidate a favor. For what its worth he told her that Labor were a sure thing
Howard won the 2004 election on the back of his interest rate promises. He has failed and thus must be made accountable. No excuses, no weasling – a failed promise.
If you lend me your car because I promised I would look afer it and give it back to you later, but instead I crashed the car and denied that I every said I would look after it or give it back – you would toss me off a building.
We lent John Howard the economy on the promise of interest rates because he said he would look after them and keep them in perfect health. He didn’t do this and now denies the promise.
The same goes for Rudd, if he wins, he said the buck stops with him on hospitals. If in three years time they are a mess then he faces the music, no excuses.
FYI. The current Terror editor is a leftie from way back in his Adelaide Uni days. He used to edit the student rag On Dit.
Ashley @ 427 in regard to the PM saying sorry but not apologising!
What a miserable old arrogant SOB. What a mean spirited …..!
Good riddance!
Latham’s handshake and the crude language played well into fears about “union thugs”.
But waxgate meant that Rudd is known internationally as the guy who eats his ear wax… can we rely on the Americans’ short attention span to bury it? ok, probably yes.
so if saying sorry is not an apology (an acknowledgment expressing regret or asking pardon for a fault or offense), then what does ’sorry’ mean?
462
Frank Calabrese Says:
The grey Parrotts 366000 would be all locked in there votes. The only problem Jones and Libs have with this is churn. Hence all the Be buried by an Aussie adds.
1 in 100 Jones listeners a week slip off this mortal coil.
No, I’m not sorry, says PM:
http://www.smh.com.au/news/economy/no-im-not-sorry-says-pm/2007/11/08/1194329384678.html
JWH may have just King Hit Himself!
Game over?
I agree, Matthew Sykes @ 450, Mr X should get in in SA. Not sure I like him personally, but it’s always good to see the odd independent/minor party candidate get into the senate. Plus, he’s sure to keep a Lib out if he gets in, thus helping the overall ALP cause.
On the state level, something tells me that the Libs are a reasonable chance to get in at the next SA election. Once ALP gets in federally, I think we’ll start to see few Lib state gov’ts get elected.
With the difference between ’sorry’ and an apology being illuminated, it looks like the Libs have gone from clutching at straws to splitting straws.
I’m sure this has been pointed out but I haven’t had time to read the posts.
It’s all here is it’s weasel-worded, smarmy, you-battler-mugs-who-were-stupid-enough-to-believe-me-can-all-go-and-get-f**ked glory: http://www.smh.com.au/news/economy/no-im-not-sorry-says-pm/2007/11/08/1194329384678.html.
I told youse he didn’t apologise. He merely made an observation.
Jude – I agree. I think Turnbull is safe – both because the vote last time was affected by the Peter King thing, and because Turnbull has worked the seat quite well.
Lol, if Labor lose from here y’all will be saying the raising of interest rates was the new Tampa.
BB snap
NAB has just announced its raising rates by 0.25%:
“The other big banks are shortly expected to follow NAB and others like Westpac have hinted they may raise home loan rates more than any official rate rises due to higher funding costs following the US credit crunch.”
Also, hasn’t the Parrot had a recent ratings reduction – perhaps he’s been abandoned by disgruntled NLP voters??
Mr X has sold out and will not get anything like 22% of the vote. He has left SA with more pokie debt than ever and quit just before a whole raft of anti-gambling bills were going before parliament. I heard the Adelaide Casino actually held a party the nihgt he quit.
The rumour is:
The Liberals can’t take it any more, and since they are all losers – they concede!
Hawkie was in Manly for launch of Hugh Zochling’s campaign in Warringah. I wonder if the Warringah Worm was there, or if they hired Patrica Petersen as a dancing girl.
Question to all: The other day I asked if anyone knew how to get into election night venues. I live in Griffith and was hoping to wander down to Kevin’s do after a couple of coldies. It was suggested I volunteer to do some mailboxing but my work doesn’t really allow for that. Does anyone know if i’d be able to just wander in unnoticed or are these venues “secure sites”?
I’d love to see some history in the making!!
JoM: Whatever…(stifles yawn).
I’m not sure about your view with regards to the state government here in SA Ralph, I think the Rann government has a fair way to run yet. The only area where Rann has really performed below average is on water, and he knows it. They could probably do with a cabinet reshuffle to shake up a few portfolios, and get in some of the younger talent like Chloe Fox. I believe this is due to happen early next year.
Martin Hamilton-Smith is quite diabolical in my opinion, all wind and no substance. He attacks everything he can get his hands on, and turns off a lot of people I know, even some of my hard-nosed liberal friends.
475 JoM [if Labor lose from here y’all will be saying the raising of interest rates was the new Tampa.]
Todays version of the rate rise is good for Tories,eh?
http://possumcomitatus.wordpress.com/2007/11/08/the-race-against-the-cashrate-clock/
If Turnbull is safe as people here are suggesting, would that not have influenced the overall results of the NSW marginals Newspoll conducted last week? If I recall correctly, Wentworth was included in that poll. Surely that means that there’s still a chance of a significant swing in NSW marginals.