The Australian has produced another set of Newspoll geographic and demographic breakdowns, suggesting we will be getting such figures compiled from the previous two weekly surveys each Thursday. That means both today’s breakdown and last Thursday’s were half composed of the October 26-28 survey. To produce these figures, Newspoll has increased its samples from 1000 to 1700, the extras coming from smaller states so that each has a credible sample of between 650 and 700 over a fortnight. As well as this, Newspoll is evidently doing more specialised surveys on weekdays for publication on Saturday (sometimes, at least – there was no such survey at the end of week two). So far we have been given the Bass and Braddon polls that appeared at the end of week one, along with last weekend’s marginal seats survey. The Australian’s editor Chris Mitchell, or someone who did a very good impression of him, appeared in comments a few days ago saying the latter exercise would be repeated later in the campaign.
The chart below shows how Newspoll’s projected swings to Labor have tracked out since the middle of last year. It seems that with the exception of Western Australia, the figures were closely knotted together until the election was announced, at which point they scattered: the swing has held firm in Queensland and South Australia, but returned to earth in New South Wales and Victoria. This provides corroborating evidence which had previously been lacking for the relatively mediocre NSW swing in the weekend’s marginal seat poll. That the Victorian swing is now level with Western Australia’s is perhaps more of a surprise. And then there are those swings in Queensland and South Australia, which seem firmly set in double figures. If that’s the case, Queensland will almost deliver Labor the election single-handedly, with 14 seats to fall from a uniform swing of 11 per cent. In South Australia, every figure Newspoll has produced since Rudd became leader suggests Labor should win big in Sturt and Boothby, a prospect most informed observers seem reluctant to countenance.
Last night’s comments action also brought forth some purported intelligence on Labor internal polling, which you can read here and here. This may of course be a red herring of one kind or another, but my instinct is to take people who name themselves after Ramones songs at their word.
1,157 Comments
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“795
red wombat Says:
November 8th, 2007 at 6:00 pm
It’s not to late for the “Libs” to throw him under the bus and continually reverse over him!”
Indeed, red, as in the penultimate scene in the classic Oz film, “The Cars That Ate Paris”.
$ubPrime $weetie, demented at the wheel screaming:
“Look at me now! I can drive…I CAN DRIVE!!”
Has anyone seen LTEP lately? Or has LTEP morphed into someone else?
If he loses bennelong there’s a chance… but he’ll do his best to be dignified… at least for the first couple of weeks. Realisticly, I see Mr. Howard dedicating his remaining years to listening to talk back radio and ringing in getting all angry if anyone says anything bad about his years as PM.
It’d be fun to get him nominated to Branson’s Council of Elders… by god, he’d destroy that forum pretty quickly!
Howard won’t cry if he loses, he can take defeat like a man, not like Malcolm Fraser.
glen, mock malcolm all you like but when he was PM he made lil johhny shake in his boots.
AH but Glen, what about you? Will you cry?
Yeah Glen like at the Rugby World Cup in Sydney when Howard nearly threw the cup at the English Captain. Talk about dignity and grace. Talk about taking defeat like a Man. You are in La la land. Howard is an absolute disgrace…
Howie was very close to tears on the 7:30 report before the election when he was begging the electorate to vote for him so he could retire lol.
As much as Malcolm behaved like an unprincipled opportunistic rat, Howard has managed to climb infinitely higher on the rodent ladder of shame than Malcolm could ever aspire to.
No because should that happen i shall say “Serenity Now”.
Anyway i could handle a loss as long as people like Turnbull, Brough, Pyne oh and Keenan as i helped in his win of 2004 aren’t defeated.
I would be really shattered if we lost by a large margin and lost several talented MPs and Ministers, but i wouldn’t cry.
The question is would you cry Bronwyn if the ALP lost 5 elections in a row?
I’ll be a man and say it.
Yes i will definitely cry if labor lose 5 in a row.
Alex McDonnel: “what does he think? – is he afraid every borrower will sue him?”
You nailed what I was half thinking. For me, that’s why rattus weaselling out of an apology was so utterly pathetic. The sorry was such a pissweak, who-cares act in the first place. He can’t even own up to a measly bloody interest rate rise without backing down for fear of being — held accountable? sullying the pages of history? sued?
He’s a man in a public crapper who won’t take a measly old shit for fear of other people smelling it.
It was a wonderful display of that most rattusian of characteristic — the drive to save his own spotted, spineless, sorry-assed ass.
Bronwyn, like your Dear Leader, Glen, doesn’t answer unlikely hypotheticals.
Yes, I would. I’d bawl my eyes out, get drink a gallon of cheap plonk, sober up, deal with the hangover, then get on with the next election.
It’s only politics. And I’ve got you to stop me from harming others. Thank you, punching bag.
well spoken, betamax – hell, with a spiel like that… you should call yourself VHS… you’re a winner!
Glen @ 860 – I can agree with the suggestion that Turnbull has something to offer but what’s the attraction with Pyne?
Well if the Libs win there will be no tears from you lot. Why? Cause your used to losing. A Lib win is still very much on the cards….this race is by no means over like some of you claim it to be.
Thanks for the insight, Thommo. It was certainly enlightening.
These people (Brough, Turnbull, Pyne) are the future of the Liberal Party if we lost them we’d really be up ‘%$#@ creek without a paddle’.
Latest from my source in the ALP
Cowan – polling strong
Swan – polling strong
Hasluck – polling strong
Stirling – too close to call. Labor ahead
Brand – too close to call. Labor ahead
Kalgoorlie – Very much in play
Moore – In play. Washer has lost interest in campaigning / Burgess is well liked
Forrest – In play
Canning – In play
Forget the Rest
Overall swing from internal WA polling 8% to Labor
BTW, Stirling Times has been refusing to run any positive articles about Tinley/Labor or negative articles about Keenan/Libs, and even advertising for Labor is getting rejected by the newspaper… so much for democracy in this country. Typical shady liberals.
Ahh, Thommo’s mum didn’t take the Bindeez away from the playroom fast enough… not his fault really.
What is it with Lib supporters and spelling?
Your. You’re.
Sound the same, but they’re not!
Glen, I’m sorry but you’re not going to have Pyne to pine over. He’s gone. His electirate seems to have decided he’s on the nose over the last few weeks…
Thommo
Do have have any evidence to suggest a Liberal win? Or is it just hope?
#825Alex, what slogan are you wearing on your T-shirt? Let us know if you are and we’ll join you!
John Rocket you are a disgrace, you should be ashamed of yourself.
Don’t you have anything to say that doesn’t involve personal abuse towards other posters?
Glen How’s Brough’s nuclear power plant on Bribie Island going? Heard anything yet?
867
“Thommo Says:
November 8th, 2007 at 6:53 pm
Well if the Libs win there will be no tears from you lot. Why? Cause your used to losing”
I think the LNP are pretty good at losing too. Over the last 5 or so years, they have lost every election they have been up for except for the Federal. That means there are more liberals experienced in losing.
I remember a big loss – 1993 and one of Ricky johnson’s campaign workers physically attacked me that night.
Get used to it!
Glen, I agree that Turnbull, if he survives will probably be part of the Party’s new direction, but I wouldn’t pin too much on Pyne – he’s a dud.
Sure, his ability to win preselection by getting the numbers over a sitting member was quite a feat for a guy of only around 25, but apart from counting the numbers for Costello, he’s done nothing.
The fact that his colleagues overlooked him for so long is a testament to what they think of him.
I’ve been outted, damn, yes, I admit it all… I am a disgrace… and your point is Glen?
As far as i know steve there isn’t a nuclear power station planned for Bribie Island?
So why are you spreading Green/ALP hot air?
How hypocritical for Rudd to trash Howard for negative campaigning when Rudd does this sort of stuff to Bribie Island with nuclear power.
Of course Glen is right, losing a lot of talent from the front bench would leave the Coalition our in the cold for a very long time. One thing the Liberals have to do is bring in some first class moderate talent – along the lines of David Cameron’s Zac Goldsmith – to revitalise the party. The Liberal Party desperately need to update itself.
no no no, losing front bench ‘talent’ would enable them to regroup far more quickly. We have to hope that the frontbench remains largely intact so they can spend the next decade working out which one of them can pee higher!
881 [As far as i know steve there isn’t a nuclear power station planned for Bribie Island?]
Glen, I can’t understand this newspaper article. Any ideas?
http://bayjournal.com.au/joomla/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=574&Itemid=42
And Glen, I just don’t know the explanation for this but it seems to be Pyne’s Christian conservatives who are the most upset with him.
It is in the interest of democracy, that if Labor wins, the Coalition rebuild and refashion into a viable alternative.
I don’t want 11 years of any government in power.
Win local news Sunny Coast – Debbie Blumel Labor candidate for Fairfax gets a great hit on interest rates – Liberal candidates “unavailable for comment”.
862 Betamax……. phew! Words jumped off the page! Fantastic…am going to miss all this when it is over.
“We offer a secure future” – John Howard.
Shouldn’t that read: “We offer non-core aspirational aggregate impression incentivational futucurity” – Jon Howard.
Local Brisbanee Libs are now advertising on commercial TV.
The AEC has an election countdown clock at http://aec.gov.au/
Add 12 hours to the time shown for the approx time our own dear Anthony will call the election for the forces of good.
Speaking of Chris Pyne … can somebody tell me if either major party has any gay/lesbian MPs or candidates that are out of the closet?
Your dreaming runawake if you think Labor has the slightest hope of clinching fairfax.
Thommo
I live in the electorate. I think I probably know better than you.
887 [Liberal candidates “unavailable for comment”]
Is there something new there Ruawake? I rarely hear from these seat warmers from one year to the next.
Not buying the whole ABBOTT “This is a good government” but that Labour is still well ahead with the boom still going BOOM. Indictes that something is rotten at the base of the tree.
Moore is in play??? God. I hope you’re correct, I just don’t believe it.
Kalgoorlie, I can appreciate. I can certainly understand Canning. It’s actually a mortgage belt seat now. To believe it, you only have to take a drive down the Kwinana Freeway. Mandurah is part of Canning, so it’s entirely plausible that it could be one of the shockers of the night for the Libs.
I live in Hasluck and Stuart Henry is out-junkmailing Sharryn 2-1. Sign of trouble?
Really? Well I was born there lived there for 24 years and only left a few months ago. I think I know it just as well as you mate. Labor got no chance and I think you know it. Fisher on the other hand could be a chance Caroline Hutchinson is going to cause some problems there.
#846 Thommo Says:
“Your sick Betamax.”
Yes he is, but i liiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiike it!!
Baressi (Deakin) knows he is in a fight. Just saw an ad for him on 9.
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