The Australian has produced another set of Newspoll geographic and demographic breakdowns, suggesting we will be getting such figures compiled from the previous two weekly surveys each Thursday. That means both today’s breakdown and last Thursday’s were half composed of the October 26-28 survey. To produce these figures, Newspoll has increased its samples from 1000 to 1700, the extras coming from smaller states so that each has a credible sample of between 650 and 700 over a fortnight. As well as this, Newspoll is evidently doing more specialised surveys on weekdays for publication on Saturday (sometimes, at least – there was no such survey at the end of week two). So far we have been given the Bass and Braddon polls that appeared at the end of week one, along with last weekend’s marginal seats survey. The Australian’s editor Chris Mitchell, or someone who did a very good impression of him, appeared in comments a few days ago saying the latter exercise would be repeated later in the campaign.
The chart below shows how Newspoll’s projected swings to Labor have tracked out since the middle of last year. It seems that with the exception of Western Australia, the figures were closely knotted together until the election was announced, at which point they scattered: the swing has held firm in Queensland and South Australia, but returned to earth in New South Wales and Victoria. This provides corroborating evidence which had previously been lacking for the relatively mediocre NSW swing in the weekend’s marginal seat poll. That the Victorian swing is now level with Western Australia’s is perhaps more of a surprise. And then there are those swings in Queensland and South Australia, which seem firmly set in double figures. If that’s the case, Queensland will almost deliver Labor the election single-handedly, with 14 seats to fall from a uniform swing of 11 per cent. In South Australia, every figure Newspoll has produced since Rudd became leader suggests Labor should win big in Sturt and Boothby, a prospect most informed observers seem reluctant to countenance.
Last night’s comments action also brought forth some purported intelligence on Labor internal polling, which you can read here and here. This may of course be a red herring of one kind or another, but my instinct is to take people who name themselves after Ramones songs at their word.
1,157 Comments
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Thommo
The boundaries of Fairfax have changed. Did you notice how house prices have fallen? Do you think mortgage stress is not affecting Peregian Springs and Twin Waters?
The invisible man Somlyay is in trouble.
Gary Bruce 900
I spoke to my Labor insider in WA and she said that news coming from Victoria is that Deakin is going to Labor
Runawake I think people that can afford to live in those places are not feeling too much stress. I guess we will have to see on election night. Im not to sure where the house prices are falling I recently sold my house there and made a killing. I own a block of land there as well and the value is going up and up and up.
Very few folks live in 1820’s Neoclassical Town houses. The target market for the libs is Springfield Simpsons USA aka Aussie Jon home loans will save u. In the great miners strikes of the past.The enemy was not the fellow who lived in the highest house on the hill. But the fool you stumbled, sweated and pushed the cart up the tunnel with.
” ‘892
Betamax Says:
November 8th, 2007 at 7:15 pm
Speaking of Chris Pyne … can somebody tell me if either major party has any gay/lesbian MPs or candidates that are out of the closet?’ ”
Penny Wong is all i know.
Thommo, the problem for the Rattus Crew isn’t the people who can afford to live in those places, its the people who, now, can’t afford to live in those places. Or anywhere else for that matter as it’s not only mortgage holders who are under stress, but renters as well.
It’s not a nice thought, having to sell your house and then piss any equity you may have built up into someone else’s pocket in rent. If you can find a place to rent that is!!
Anyone else been notice the desperation and pleading showing up in Howard interviews this week? He is becoming even more shrill and childish in his remarks.
907
Let It End Says:
November 8th, 2007 at 7:38 pm
Anyone else been notice the desperation and pleading showing up in Howard interviews this week? He is becoming even more shrill and childish in his remarks.
Things are not going to plan action is needed says
Travis Bickle
Imacca im sure they are big problems in the city. But elsewhere there really isn’t any mortgage stress or rental stress for that matter. Alot of the stress out there is due to bad spending habits. When I see the Wax farmer out there saying that working familes are doing it tougher than ever I cant help but laugh. I work in financial sevices and the people who default on their loans are the people who have bad spending habits. The government cant be to blame for everything.
In Adelaide, I’ve noticed that in all the electorates except Boothby the party posters all just show the Labor candidate. In Boothby, the Nicole Cornes ones are often accompanied by Rudd’s New Leadership ones. This is because Boothby was eminently winnable until the celebrity candidate became the biggest loser and Labor is trying to get us to vote for Rudd despite her. Are the Rudd posters in other states helping out other lame ducks?
Penny Wong is all there is.
I notice that the enrolment in Kalgoorlie has dropped since 2004. My suspicion was that this was caused by disfranchisement of Indigenous voters by the changes to the Electoral Act. But enrolments in Lingiari, Leichhardt and Grey are all up, Lingiari strongly so. Does anyone have another explanation for the drop in Kalgoorlie?
Thommo
Look at the AEC site, last election there were about 400 people who voted at the Peregian Springs booth. Now there are 8,000 houses – all worth less than they cost to build.
The Sunny Coast is negative equityville. It will show in the polls.
Just spoke to the Senator, gloom in HQ – ACN Nielsen tomorrow 55-45
Megan – 875 I think my T shirt would read ‘ Begone you rat, begone! I think our Sydney-based posters should organise the Howard farewell at Kirribilli.
909
Thommo Says:
If you really work were u say u do. U would no that the economy in most oecd economies has been on autopilot for the last 10 years cept 4 obivious old school trotskies such as the USA. Howard and Costello are ushers not directors…
ESJ, Why the gloom?
Michael Keenan ad during Ch 10 News in Perth.
I’ll take that ESJ.
Antony and Sol on now.
I think I am starting to work out Howard’s re-election strategy now.
Ir’s quite simple really. Make Labor think that they can be successful in all 148 seats (except the 2 independents) and stretch their campaigning resources so much that the libs can just sneak over the line with the support of the 2 independents.
The only trouble with this is, Labor just might pull it off with the help of Howard.
SBS is reporting that Peter Dutton (assistant treasurer) also told his colleagues in September that there would be no rate rise in November…
is that hubris or what?
surely no one can imagine that Howard would have gone to an election actually expecting a rate rise…that would have made a lot of sense…
so so much for his strategic thinking…and i hope that costello and dutton sucked him in: Cossies ultimate revenge, maybe
and when will the MSM pick up on these “gaffes” and splash them across the front pages?
they are giving this mob unbelievable breaks….
And yeah…howard is sounding …ratty….
and btw, crikey were running story that pyne is doing numbers for costello to roll howard immediately on Lib return if they fall across the line…so when will the media challenge other blowhards in the Cabinet, ie Ruddock etc, as to whether they expect to remain in the Cabinet for much longer…
boy, we’ve got lazy journalists in this joint..
I dont know where your getting your figures from runawake. Home prices on the sunny coast have done nothing but rise.
Ah Antony – bringing reality back to poll analysis.
Actually even Sol was pretty on the money.
No wonder the ALP have gagged Newhouse he is a terrible media performer, when he refused to give his own opinion on the pulp mill, you know this man is a ’stooge’.
We’ll we all know who Antony Green and Sol will vote for at the coming election lol.
Loved this post on Tim dunlop’s site. Saw another one somewhere just as good.
{”Well, I am sorry. But saying I’m sorry doesn’t mean I’m apologising. An apology is one way of saying sorry, but saying sorry is not a different way of offering an apology, okay? Got that? I mean, people should actually listen to what I say in light of a more post-modern, deconstructionist fashion, perhaps even bone up on a little situationist philosophy as context rather than simply ascribe a literal meaning to every single word … Heavens above, I do mean what I’m saying, it’s just that what I’m saying may not necessarily mean what I’m saying when other people take what I’m saying to mean what they think they want me to say when I’m saying something completely different which I may not have actually said at all.
It’s all very simple really, but look, the big issue here … blah blah, union bosses, blah blah, lower under us, blah blah …” }
Ill be glad if Pyne loses his seat. He is so bloody shrill when ive seen him on programs like Lateline. Just wants to keep talking over whoever is his “opponent” and sprout any old drivel simply so they don’t get a chance to say anything. This is really annoying to a viewer whop actually wants to hear both sides of a debate.
I have often wondered if he was the gay LNP minister referred to weeks ago when there were rumors about one that had been harassing staffers, and visiting gay clubs in Sydney? I have a few gay friends who are great, but this guy strikes me as a possible nasty old queen.
SOMLYAY, Alexander (LIB) 1.05
BLUMEL, Debbie (ALP) 7.75
ruawake, we’re on the same side but you’re a bit of a gee-up artist. A month ago you reckoned you had some info on Mal Brough so hot that you couldn’t post it here and that you would only send it to emailers. I recall Adam saying “que pasa” at the time. Never arrived did it?
So Debbie B. tees off on Interest Rates on Chickentown TV. Hardly gonna loosen the The Minister for Golf’s grip on Faifax considering the above board odds is it, mate?
No, it is excellent tactics – let Turnbull take the blame for everything.
According to the Galaxy poll, it seems to be working.
‘I voted for a Weazel and all I got was this lousy t-shirt on my back when the interest rates kicked in’ ?
Frank Calabrese this was obviously in response to Tinley’s ad, things are hotting up in the West.
ESJ 913
How reliable is the 55-45 ACN?
Was it taken before or after the rate hike?
Gloom at HQ? Are you guys tapping out? Hope not. I’m a Labor supporter, but as keen follower of politics, I want to see Howard go down swinging….
ESJ @ 913
Hmm, a 55-45 TPP in ACN tomorrow.
No wonder the Rodent’s been acting senile lately
Rubbish Newhouse is a winner, and a nice jewish boy! Waddawant else? You should be so lucky to have Newhouse representing you, you could do worse….you could have a weazel! Ayy Gevault not a weazel! Spare me with the weazel already!
imacca you got it in one re rumours, subject thereof
ESJ – serious on Neilsen or having a giggle?
Missed 730 – what led it and what did Antony & Sol have to say?
Are we getting weekly ACNs now? ACN tomorrow, Morgan Friday, Galaxy Monday, Newspoll Tuesday – o joy unbounded.
Clarke and Dawe – Ah Garrett he’s an easy target.
Let’s hope everyone learns a lesson, and no one who ever held any strong beliefs when they were in their 20s and 30s ever enters parliament.
“Home prices on the sunny coast have done nothing but rise.” Would be correct until about 2 years ago.
The arse end of the market – Nambour, Burnside may be staying steady but the $500k + market is going backwards.
Same old lines Burgey, Antony pro-Lab, Sol doesn’t know who will win.
@930 Sir Eggo
I’d settle for just Howard swingin…in the breeze….til someone came and cut down his political carcass ….
PM denies apologising for rate rise
Thursday Nov 8 17:20 AEDT
http://news.ninemsn.com.au/minisite/election_article.aspx?id=109795§ionid=6046§ionname=minisiteelection
‘I voted for Kevin and all I got was this lousy t-shirt’?
NAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA!!!
“Ayy Gevault”? What language is that already? It’s Oy gevalt! (”Oh disaster!” in Yiddish).
Pretty good summation Glen.
Kerry asked Antony a question he obviously knew the answer of – on the state polls currently what would be the result on Antony’s calculator. Antony let go a sheepish grin when he said the ALP would win 95 seats.
Howard…………But it’s also fair of me to point out that … a family in which say dad (works) full-time and mum (works) part-time got what, $20 a week out of the last budget in tax cuts?
“I think you’ve got to put that up against the impact of the interest rate rise.”
What he really meant was ….”Youuuu ungrateful bastards”
T-shirt idea no 301
‘ I voted for Howard’ (on the front) ‘May God have mercy on my soul’ (on the back.)
Is there an actual soundbite with JWH saying words to the effect of “I’m not sorry for the interest rate rise”?
If this is the case, why doesn’t JWH just write the bloody Labor ads for them. I can’t believe he would be that stupid.
No, he said “I said I was sorry, I didn’t say I apologise.”
But even this is a piece of hair splitting obfuscation.
Sir Eggo, there is. He boasts, then he says ‘I am NOT sorry for a strong economy I take full responsibility for that’
Anyone who would vote for a character of that calibre deserves summary execution (well they must already be braindead….we would just be saving alot of time and misery)
Is there nothing you don’t know Adam? You need Renaissanceblog.com.
What’s everyone’s problem with Peter Garrett? He is the only politician you can actually trust because you know his intentions are true. Every other politician, both labour and liberal, will do what ever it takes to be PM.
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