The Australian has produced another set of Newspoll geographic and demographic breakdowns, suggesting we will be getting such figures compiled from the previous two weekly surveys each Thursday. That means both today’s breakdown and last Thursday’s were half composed of the October 26-28 survey. To produce these figures, Newspoll has increased its samples from 1000 to 1700, the extras coming from smaller states so that each has a credible sample of between 650 and 700 over a fortnight. As well as this, Newspoll is evidently doing more specialised surveys on weekdays for publication on Saturday (sometimes, at least – there was no such survey at the end of week two). So far we have been given the Bass and Braddon polls that appeared at the end of week one, along with last weekend’s marginal seats survey. The Australian’s editor Chris Mitchell, or someone who did a very good impression of him, appeared in comments a few days ago saying the latter exercise would be repeated later in the campaign.
The chart below shows how Newspoll’s projected swings to Labor have tracked out since the middle of last year. It seems that with the exception of Western Australia, the figures were closely knotted together until the election was announced, at which point they scattered: the swing has held firm in Queensland and South Australia, but returned to earth in New South Wales and Victoria. This provides corroborating evidence which had previously been lacking for the relatively mediocre NSW swing in the weekend’s marginal seat poll. That the Victorian swing is now level with Western Australia’s is perhaps more of a surprise. And then there are those swings in Queensland and South Australia, which seem firmly set in double figures. If that’s the case, Queensland will almost deliver Labor the election single-handedly, with 14 seats to fall from a uniform swing of 11 per cent. In South Australia, every figure Newspoll has produced since Rudd became leader suggests Labor should win big in Sturt and Boothby, a prospect most informed observers seem reluctant to countenance.
Last night’s comments action also brought forth some purported intelligence on Labor internal polling, which you can read here and here. This may of course be a red herring of one kind or another, but my instinct is to take people who name themselves after Ramones songs at their word.
1,157 Comments
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Don’t feed the trolls boys and girls
I would like to see Tanner to debate Minchin that would be interesting. It seems a lot of the labor hacks on here dislike Tanner but to me he seems like a pretty straight shooter.
And with interest rates, what Howard/Costello are effectively saying is…
The economy is booming, so inflation is increasing, prices are going up. We (the coalition) want you to buy bigger houses, consume more stuff in the capitalist utopia we live in. We (the coalition) also understand that working families face higher living costs. But we’re also saying that it’s a scary economic world out there, so you need to tighten your belts and can’t expect to get regular pay increases to pay for the extra stuff that we think you should be able to go out and buy. So trust us to keep your wages down while we encourage you go to out there and buy more stuff which will continue to increase in price anyway. Yeah, it’s pretty bad out there. And by the way, don’t vote for labor because they’ll just make it all worse.
It’s quite a sell.
Chris, I think Tanner is one of the best.
Employement Rate up to 4.3%
This data is horrible for Howard. Superficially, it looks bad.
Underlying it’s actually very very strong and has caused interest rates to go up. A Dec rate rise is looking like a stronger possibility by the day! Worst of both worlds for Howard
Cricket has been on for an hour now (including pregame and current rain delay). With the rain, 9 has had plenty of time to run commercials. So far, no political ads at all for either side.
Chris @ 152.
I love Tanner. The biggest waste of talent on the Labor front bench, no doubt about it. Why he is not in the treasurer’s seat is truly beyond me. I think he’d make a fantastic treasurer. He’s a far better performer than Swan in every sense of the word. In fact, if we had Tanner fronting the talkback jocks and duelling Costello, I think Australia would feel a whole lot more comfortable about Labor running a steady ship.
Why will no one answer me?
Why has productivity gone backwards under workchoices?
Haahahahahahahaha!
Nobbled by statistical variation no doubt… probably hasn’t actually changed much at all.
But it’ll shut ‘em up. They would have been praying for a drop so that they could go on about how good they are at making jobs.
Tanner will never be treasurer for two reasons: (1) he is in the Left, and (2) his party will never win an election in his working life.
Tanner is non factional?
Yes, I really wanted Tanner to be treasurer too. He is smart and every time I have listened to him I have been impressed.
Tanner is from the left.
Ashley – that’s it exactly.
The RBA will look past the headline and raise rates – the populace won’t see past the uptick in unemployment.
Essentially unemployment has moved from 4.249 to 4.251 (really that small).
Its hardly surprising that the British tories are looking to John Howard as some sort of demigod. After all, the british conservative party is pretty much a talent free zone other than the odd-sounding yorkshire toff William Hague.
They even managed to lose my old Sheffield electorate of Sheffield Hallam to the lib dems. in 1997 (and havent won it back since) even though it has the highest average income of any electorate outside of the south east of England.
Because stripping pay and conditions from workers makes them less motivated, and less efficient.
Employement Rate up to 4.3%
I suspect that JWH will spin this rise so as to blame Labour for the increase, he is so predictable.
A girlfriend in Perth who lives in the Pearce electorate reported this morning that when she boarded the train to head into Perth for work she saw big “Howard Out” graffiti written all over at the train station. The train station is in a strongly Liberal part of Pearce. Reports from the front line for what it is worth
…….
Its amusing hearing opinion that labor should just turn the other cheek on interest rates or ‘apologise’ for previous economic management. This is exactly what they did so disasterously under Beazley and Latham. Beazley famously apologised for the high interest rates under Labor in the late 80s…along with Latham’s signed guarantee on interest rates, it was one of the most lame, pathetic moments in Labor history and the party is still trying to clean up the mess. Its the reason why Howard is still running this interest rate line. Its his only last line of attack and it needs to be blown out of the water.
Those lib interest rate adds that were all over the TV last night resonate with people and I can’t for the life of me understand why labor don’t throw one out to counter them. The ‘6 consecutive rises under howard’ ad is ok, but it just tells people what they know and doesnt address the lib ad which effectively gazumps it…Three main points could be made:
1 -22% rates under howard in the early 80s – keep saying the 22% figure as much as howard says 17% under labor…
2- Interest rates in oz at the moment at the top of the OECD average
3 – proportion in income going to service debt something like 3 times what it was in the 90s…
The 22% line under Howard not only obliterates the ‘history’ argument but it again shows Howard up to be a shyster. The problem with recent Labor history under Gartrell, Grey et al is that they seem to have lost much of their strategic ability and capacity to respond to campaign dynamics..The interest rate issue is an opportunity for Howard – its on his ground – the economy and fear…..everywhere else is Labor territory.
Certainly, since I discovered this site my efficiency has fallen through the floor.
marty — too true
They need to do a graph which shows that the long run trend in interst rates is down since it peaked under Fraser. Since then the trend has been down and down and down, no matter who’s in power.
Factions, smactions. Does it really matter whether Tanner’s left, right or something else. Surely it’s a case of best guy for the job. In fact, I think that’s why Rudd made a big deal about selecting his front bench on merit. All he has to do (assuming labor wins) is switch Swan and Tanner. His big 3 economic leadership team remains the same, just a bit of musical chairs – no broken promises there. And then he’s free to shunt Garrett to Arts & Sport, demote McLelland to something beyond foreign affairs and bring in people like Combet and Shorten.
The focus will shift off the economy for the last two weeks of the campaign, much as the government would like to keep it there.
Reason? Both parties still have major announcements on the environment, education and probably health. They have saved some of their most ‘impressive’ announcements for last, and I think they will capture most of the headlines for the next couple of weeks.
Labor is gaining in WA, Labor is gaining in WA, Labor is gaining in WA.
Is there anyway whatsoever that this can be a positive indicator for the Libs?
The reality is that although financial comfort levels for families attached to the resources boom (that Howard didn’t create anyway) are high, the quality of family life is being effected by the switch to fly in fly out two and three week stints. (mining companies used to establish regional communities instead)
The understanding workers are gaining that removing workchoices wont actually reduce wages, but may increase conditions (this message is pronounced in marginals where the ACTU campaign is heavily resourced) is more attractive to someone who doesn’t really “need” a wage increase compared to more time with the wife and kids.
Additionally, through the election campaign, WA voters are now seeing more of Kevin Rudd through nation media than the local conservative media has shown of him previously. An educated rural Queenslander is less of an “eastern stater” than the alternative/alternative PM Peter Costello anyday.
Although WA voters are their own brand, they certainly dont want to be the village idiots of Australia. If polling in other states is showing MASSIVE ALP support, WA people will at least have a closer look at why that is, before just writting it off as “Eastern States” mentality.
The Age website is giving me the …
Quoting Swan as saying that “he can’t gurantee rates won’t go up further” why don’t they ask the same question of Costello – he can’t gurantee it either.
The ALP gets shafted for telling the truth. They’re too ashamed and principled to lie as baltantly as the Coalition does.
158 [Why has productivity gone backwards under workchoices?]
The question really is, why has productivity gone backwards during the reign of the Howard regime? Labor can boast a good record of productivity growth as seen here. See from the first graph what happened when Howard got elected in 1996.
http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/Latestproducts/5204.0Main%20Features602006-07?opendocument&tabname=Summary&prodno=5204.0&issue=2006-07&num=&view=
Time to have a quick break and have a look at Possum’s site.
It’s interesting how the media like to spin these polls. “The Libs gain ground in Tasmanian marginals.’ When you read it the article says Labor is on track to win the 5 seats in Tas.
I agree, Sean @ 169.
Labor definitely needs more attack ads directly countering the Coalition’s ads about Labor’s past record. Surely the campaign team can pull something out. That sort of stuff certainly does resonate out there in the mortgage belt. Letting that sort of stuff go through to the keeper untouched is bordering on political suicide.
Ross Gittens in the SMH is far more reasonable.
http://www.smh.com.au/news/federal-election-2007-news/dont-believe-crocodile-tears/2007/11/07/1194329318917.html?page=fullpage#contentSwap1
Gerr
As i’ve said, if you want to read how workchoices actually effects the economy, read Issue 56 of the Journal of Australia Political Economy, available for free at http://www.jape.org.au
The liberals can pontificate all they like about WA, but the facts are if there is anything like a 6% swing (as shown in the newspoll WA data) on election day they can forget about winning anything at all in WA. In fact, chances are they would lose at least 2 seats with a 6% swing. 6% swing = zilch, zippo, bugger-all for the liberals.
Ralph, hasnt the ALP got those Howard 22% ads running already?
I dont watch commercial TV, so its a question. But Ive seen em on youtube etc. And weren’t people here saying the ALP was running interest rate ads yesterday?
yes, gary bruce, i noted the same thing. after i read the article, i had to recheck the headline, which seemed diametrically opposed to the content!
I don’t watch much commercial TV either. I have seen the SA version of the ads linking fed labor to state labor – absolutely despicable stuff. I just have to hope that people see through that sort of sh*t.
I have become a serious watcher of Sky News since the election has been called though – just can’t get myself away from it!
Kevin on a table talking about interest rates.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fU_P_iJNizg
176 Rates Analyst,
You are dead right… There seems to be a campaign by most of the MSM to put Labor through the ringer, whilst giving those stinking Libs free reign to do what ever they want. There is no doubt in my mind that the MSM wants to polls to narrow, as they can have more interesting stories to report, there for sales and rating will increase.
With Sky News reporting that there is parity in the Newspoll for the state of WA, they made it sound bad for Labor, well I was elated, as I believe that if in this conservative, redneck, pom-filled state, Labor can poll 50/50 from 2004’s 45/55, that means in other states the swing is gonna be huge.
Unemployment has gone up too. I bet the Rodent was looking for some hope from the new figures to spin over the rate rise.
Unemployment rate is up! 4.3 Yay!
187 – “on a table” – thought it was going to be footage of Scores, tbh!!!
Sorry, I do empathise with those looking for jobs for I can’t help celebrating.
ESJ
For a guy who’s meant to be ’smart’ you sure say some dumb things. Apparently a Rudd govt is looking a bit Whitlamesque for you – unions equals norm gallagher and wages break out, Labor equals union control and unrestrained spending. Its like we’re in a time warp. This is the sort of line of thinking that often gets a gig on the letters page of the terrorgraph.
Not sure what you were doing during the Hawke keating years but you’ll find that the check on inflationary wage pressures that Howard had so spectacularly ignited in the late 70s early 80s was achieved primarily through the union movements capacity to look at the broad national interest and link wages growth to productivity gains. It was Labor again who substantially deregulated the IR system and effectively abolished pattern bargaining.
Labor under Hawke Keating were far more economically conservative than the libs have been…..The libs under howard have essentially blown the proceeds of 12 years of growth and a resources boom on middle class welfare and pork….lazily plonking a meager one percent of GDP into surplus to keep the editorial writers of the OZ happy. Howards record as treasurer speaks for itself. Fiscal discipline only really arose during the Hawke Keating years, when, due to a global recession you had to work a lot harder to produce a surplus.
Yo ho
That link not work.
Let’s not forget who the chairman of fairfax is.. oh, that’s right, Ron Walker!
Rising Inflation and Unemployment. It all looks a bit like 1982.
#192 meant but I can’t help celebrating. Every little bit helps now. JWH and Costello are spinning madly turning the rate rise to a plus. SMH editorial today was very pro-JWH.
Linsay Voter – dont feel guilty.
Most of the jobs since serfchoices are crappy re-cycled jobs. Taken by some sucker who’s dropped half-a-life-times salary on getting a visa. Works in the bowels of a Sydney restaurant and needs to commute from a suburb no-ones ever heard of.
Not good seeing that ALP insider saying that Macquaire is a close run thing. I live in the seat (in Bathurst in fact) and Kerry Bartlett (liberal) has his face everywhere. On the other hand, most Bathurstians probably don’t know who the Labor candidate is.
I thought this might have meant that the internal polling was showing that the seat was going to go Labor by a big margin and hence the ALP was focused on other seats, but to hear that it is close is disturbing because the Labor campaign here seems to be low key at best.
By the way, any news on the crikey rumor re: tommorrows Tele?
Why is KR meeting with the news editors? is it related to another smear campaign?
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