The Australian has produced another set of Newspoll geographic and demographic breakdowns, suggesting we will be getting such figures compiled from the previous two weekly surveys each Thursday. That means both today’s breakdown and last Thursday’s were half composed of the October 26-28 survey. To produce these figures, Newspoll has increased its samples from 1000 to 1700, the extras coming from smaller states so that each has a credible sample of between 650 and 700 over a fortnight. As well as this, Newspoll is evidently doing more specialised surveys on weekdays for publication on Saturday (sometimes, at least – there was no such survey at the end of week two). So far we have been given the Bass and Braddon polls that appeared at the end of week one, along with last weekend’s marginal seats survey. The Australian’s editor Chris Mitchell, or someone who did a very good impression of him, appeared in comments a few days ago saying the latter exercise would be repeated later in the campaign.
The chart below shows how Newspoll’s projected swings to Labor have tracked out since the middle of last year. It seems that with the exception of Western Australia, the figures were closely knotted together until the election was announced, at which point they scattered: the swing has held firm in Queensland and South Australia, but returned to earth in New South Wales and Victoria. This provides corroborating evidence which had previously been lacking for the relatively mediocre NSW swing in the weekend’s marginal seat poll. That the Victorian swing is now level with Western Australia’s is perhaps more of a surprise. And then there are those swings in Queensland and South Australia, which seem firmly set in double figures. If that’s the case, Queensland will almost deliver Labor the election single-handedly, with 14 seats to fall from a uniform swing of 11 per cent. In South Australia, every figure Newspoll has produced since Rudd became leader suggests Labor should win big in Sturt and Boothby, a prospect most informed observers seem reluctant to countenance.
Last night’s comments action also brought forth some purported intelligence on Labor internal polling, which you can read here and here. This may of course be a red herring of one kind or another, but my instinct is to take people who name themselves after Ramones songs at their word.
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Exactly what sean said (169). Can you foward that advice to Labor campaign headquarters? Seriously.
Anecdotal ‘evidence’ that I hope means SFA.
The cafe where I buy my coffee every morning is owned by a fairly typical small business owner, who would normally vote for Howard. 6 weeks ago he was telling me what a turd Howard is, and that we need someone new.
Now he’s telling me that Rudd is just as bad. When pressed he said that Labor would be disastrous for the country, and when pressed again said because they have no experience. While I went into overdrive with the obvious response that using that logic you would never change government, I was left with the distinct feeling that Labor’s attack lines are simply not cutting through to those not obsessed with the election like most of us on this site.
Left E
I watched some commercial TV last night. The Labor ad on rates is this one http://www.kevin07.com.au/myblog/your-thoughts-on-the-rate-rise.html
It doesn’t address the Lib add which essentially is a rehash of the one they used, to great effect in the last election showing interest rates under previous labor govts. There is certainly no Labor ad that I know of that talks about 22% under Howard in the 80s. It needs to be out there.
Labor should take up the Economy fight head on for the rest of the election and sow seeds of doubt into the electorate so they will question Howards bigger and bigger lies. That will be the final nail.
It’s interesting that with the absence of any poll suggesting a Howard win the only thing the cooalition supporters have to fall back on here are platitudes such as “Howard will win” or “Rudd will be another Whitlam”. Mind numbing isn’t it?
Sean @ 202, check the one I posted before. It was released 2 hours ago.
ND, Portlandbet has Coalition $4.60 in Macquarie, so if insiders from either camp know anything at all, it can only support those odds.
ESJ- Lets face it the ALP always has to do the heavy lifting to move this country forwrd. Always has, always will. Restructuring the Australian economy during the 80′, the Accord, leading the country thru WW2 adfter facing down the appeasers on the Tory side of politics, establishing the modern links with the USA. I could go on and on.
Labor governments are always marked harder not least by the Tory press and coming to power after 11 years will no doubt see some mistakes, maybe lots of mistakes like the 96 Howard Goverment. You can bet Shanners, Madam Lash, Piers Crackerman et al will have a field day.
I will commit a blood sacrifice however if the Tories win the popular vote in the election after this one like Beazley did in ‘98.
The ALP will become the natural party of Government for the 21st century.
A 0.1% rise in unemployment is statistically insignificant. It is essentially no movement.
Unemployment data is complied much like opinion polls, just with much much higher samples.
How about this one?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z1Qt_D2OU7k
Ditto Adrian @ 201.
That is exactly the fear I have too. People that were prepared to vote Labor have had the bejeesus frightened out of them by the Liberal fear campaign. And because Labor is slow to come out with a counter attack, people are taking it in and more of them are actually believing that Labor is a threat to the economy. You can easily see how this, if unchecked, can turn into The Narrowing (ref: Possum).
Oops I mean this one:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fU_P_iJNizg
ESJ
If Rudd leads Labor back from the wilderness he will have the authority to do whatever he likes and put whomever he likes into the ministry.
The analogy with Whitlam just doesn’t wash, old bean. While Labor lost in 1969, that election was seen as a Labor and Whitlam triumph, and Labor was fully expected to win in 1972, especially against an opponent, Billy McMahon, who was widely regarded as a laughing stock, even by his own side.
The contrast with today is palpable. Labor was the depths of despair after 2004, having been led to a terrible defeat by an unstable leader, Mark Latham. In desperation they turned to Kim Beazley, and talked optimistically about a “two term strategy”. When it became clear that under Beazley they weren’t going to achieve the first part of that strategy, some clawback this year, they turned in ultra desperation to Rudd.
To everyone’s surprise, Rudd has been the most effective federal opposition leader since Whitlam, but unlike Whitlam he has done it against a cunning and crafty and never to be underestimated opponent, Howard. And he looks like he is going to win, and win big, in an economic environment where people on the whole have never had it so good.
When it happens on November 24, it will be the most stunning achievement in Australian political history.
In these circumstances, Rudd will have unparelled authority, and he knows it, and he will use it. Already he has said he will over turn the ancient Labor tradition of having the caucus elect the ministry.
Of course, it is true that the world economy is looking very shaky, and it is Labor’s unfortunte destiny to come to office at a time of global economic bad times, as it did in the 1930s and 1970s. The difference this time however is that
the Reserve Bank, a very competent institution, will be able insulate the economy from global economic fall out, the China boom will go on and on, and the fundamentals of the economy are mostly in very good shape regardless including(giving credit where it is due to Howard and Costello) negligible levels of government debt.
Adrian and Ralph-relax. Start worrying when there is a plunge in the Tories odds in the betting agencies .
#168 – there’s still a faded ‘Menzies Out’ visible on the Malvern railway bridge in Melbourne if you know where to look.
210 Ralph – there is nothing in the polling that backs up your fear Ralph.
RGee
Thanks for directing me to that – the blood pressure has dropped significantly. Lets hope it gets a good run on the tv over the next few nights.
ND @ 199 – I live in the seat also (lower Blue Mountains). Hardly anything at all from Bartlett down here. Quite a few Debus signs, plenty of Your Rights @ Work signs. The only Bartlett signs I have seen have been defaced, one with devil horns, the other with red eyes. Gut feeling totally, but I feel Debus will romp it in here.
AEC and independent hopeful in bunfight.
http://abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/11/08/2085149.htm?section=justin
214 – until they re-built the railway bridge over Pendle Hill about 5 or 6 years ago there was a classic “Halt Holt” piece on it.
My efforts to have it heritage listed were unfortunately unsuccessful.
212 Spiros Says: November 8th, 2007 at 12:22 pm
Why do people keep on perpetuating this myth? The world economy isn’t looking shaky at all! It’s looking healthier than it has in 50 years. The US looks shaky, but because the world isn’t as reliant upon american consumer demand anymore, the rest of the world is looking fantastic.
20 years ago the savings crisis in the US would have cripled the world economy. In fact it DID cripple the world economy (the savings and load disasters of the mid-80’s). This time, because of the resilience of the market, and the independence of all of those central bankers, the rest of the market is washing out the problem.
There is nothing wrong with the world economy. Stop saying that there is.
I’m in Port Adelaide – one of the most safe Labor seats in the country. I may as well vote One Nation for all the good my vote will do.
Laurie tells it how it is on rates:
http://news.ninemsn.com.au/article.aspx?id=318542
Ralph you can vote for Labor with the very impressive candidate Mark Butler in Port Adelaide, who is an interesting chap to talk to you, if you have the chance.
How’s Garrett doing?
Turnbull speaking in debate.
abc,net.au/news
Opening statement by Turnbull nothing from Garrett yet
Ralph, vote Labor in the Senate.
I see Butler’s mug on the way to work each morning on one of the many advertising placards around the place. He certainly looks like a sharp and switched on chap.
The fact that people here are cheering on an increase in unemployment rate sickens me. How would you feel if unions rendered you unemployed?
Pi at 220 and Spiros at 212 are both right in their own way. The world economy is still comparatively healthy. It’s just that the engine of growth has changed from the US to the newly emerged China.
However, the ructions in the credit markets and the underlying meltdown in the US housing market, together with spiralling oil prices suggests the risks are building on the downside.
The Asian economies have done well in recent years by recycling their significant trade surpluses into US Treasuries. Asian savings underpinned US consumption, which in turn kept the Asian juggernaut chugging along.
If the US goes into recession, led by a highly indebted household sector, Asia will be exposed. And that will reflect the refusal of many countries in the region to switch from export-driven to domestic-driven growth in recent years.
Australia is but a cork on this ocean.
Ralph and Adrian – Scare campaigns always work to some degree for some voters for some of the time. The LNP have unleashed this tactic much earlier than they would have liked. They needed some traction with everything else failing to deliver. Now, with still two weeks before the media blackout it gives plenty of time for rebuttal and plenty of time for the Lib ads to look very stale and negative.
Madame Ann Ann,
Employers sack people, not unions.
0.1 is statistically irrelevant, but in a campaign carries weight for the forces of Good.
I’m halfway tempted to vote Nick X in the senate and preference Labor 2nd. If Mr X gets up, it’ll almost certainly be at the expense of a Liberal in SA – and that’s a good thing.
Madame Ann Ann: Your ridiculous post sickens me.
Since when have unions had ‘we cause workers to be sacked’ in their core doctrine?
Do you even know what a union is for?
@229 [The fact that people here are cheering on an increase in unemployment rate sickens me. How would you feel if unions rendered you unemployed?]
Well, Madame Ann Anne (aka Tabitha?), to quote Walter Duranty, ‘if you chop trees, chips must fall’
229 [The fact that people here are cheering on an increase in unemployment rate sickens me. How would you feel if unions rendered you unemployed?]
Work for a Tory pollie do you, MAA?
What happened to JWH’s 25 nuclear power plants? I thought he said he didn’t run from a fight? so if he gets re-elected then we will get the 25 nuclear power plants? to scared to mention them now, it might scare the voters.
I hope you’re right, Bryce @ 231. I certainly think the union scare campaign was a bit overblown and people are almost laughing at it. I do like the kitchen table ad from Labor though – I think that will cut through fairly well.
Anyone watching Garrett?
Garrett doing quite well.
Doing very well so far.
Early dispatches form Garrett – Turnbull
Garrett honed in on climate change direct and forcefull and ‘contemporary’ makes Turnbull speech seem very old fashioned and partisan.
Garrett, presenting and speaking very very well. Turnbull old fashioned and repeats boring government lines.
Garrett attacks sleep at wheel Howard gov. v. effective.
My tip – Strong win to Garrett. Garrett out of 10 – 9. Turnbull out of 10 – 6.
237 Brough is measuring up Bribie Island in case there is a Tory win. The other twenty four locations are secret.
Yeah…..he’s doing well. Its when the questions start coming that things will get trickier though.
A very strong opening by Garrett.
Comparison with amount spent on climate change and election advertising great point.
Still only early days. It’s Garrett we’re talking about here. Keep your fingers crossed for no gaffes or slips of the tongue.
229- the tiny tiny upward movement is not stat significant. its not becuase more people have been thrown out of work, the increase is due to more people looking for work. Some of us were just cheering the ‘bad’ news for the Rodent King because that sort of news does not provoke images of tired, huddled masses.
If you want to get really upset about something try the way that employment is measured in this country. If you have worked for 1 hour or more in the week the survey is taken you are counted as employed.
Brilliant Garret speech. 9/10.
Garretts first answer 9/10.
Turnbull rebutt 5/10
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