The Gold Coast Bulletin, which has a reasonable record with its local polling, has produced a survey showing a fairly modest swing to Labor in the safe Liberal seat of McPherson. After exclusion of the undecided, Liberal incumbent Margaret May leads Labor’s Eddy Sarroff 57 per cent to 36 per cent on the primary vote, compared with 58.9 per cent and 30.1 per cent at the 2004 election. No sample size is provided (“full results” will be published tomorrow), but if it’s like the paper’s polls in 2004 it will be around 450.
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Gold Coast Bulletin: 57-36 to Liberal in McPherson
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109 Comments
Most useless Poll ever??
Whats next, polling of Batman Victoria?
Why poll this seat. For heaven sake, talk about a waste of money.
Maybe if they poll every seat, we won’t need to have an election.
‘Hasta la vista, McPherson’… I guess not, Possum.
To be fair to the paper, it’s not as if there’s a wealth of marginal seats on the Gold Coast to poll. McPherson is actually the closest of the three.
Cast your eye northward to Fadden. Libs will probably win it, but it is far more fascinating.
In 2004 the GCB polled Richmond – I gather their reach extends over the border.
The paper is spending money to poll its local seat. Good on it. It might not interest people on Poll Bludger, in a national context, but I’m sure the voters of MacPherson would be interested.
It does put a bit of a wet blanket on some of the hysteria about massive swings to Labor in Queensland. But it’s still a small sample.
They must be BORED at the Gold Coast Bulletin.
http://ozforums.com.au/viewtopic.php?id=1620
Apparently the latest tip is that there’s a big screw-up in the bulletin with this article.
We. Shall. See.
This poll is, er… interesting. Especially since internal party polling has it at about a 4 point split with 8 points of undecideds.
Is it also true that the Bulletin stuffed this up, they know it but wont rectify it as someone has already said here, and as someone warned me about earlier today?
If that’s true and anyone has any info – that’s a disgrace. Please feel free to mail me, it might be time to smack the seven shades if sh*t out of a regional rag.
different, not used to a poll with liberals leading
Of course, if they don’t change it, McPherson voters might be more inclined to lodge the famous “protest vote” with Labor, if they believe the Libs are going to win anyway.
Personally, if the numbers are wrong, I think they should correct it. Facts and all that…
Well with due respect, polling some safe seats helps to reduce the number of unknowns. Though, I was of the impression that in general safe seats were more likely to swing more than marginal seats. Bite me if I’m wrong
Possum,
I agree this poll has to be wrong..
but what sort of things can be stuffed up when reporting poll results?
Did they get the numbers the wrong way around?
Spell Labour wrong? Poll the wrong electorate?
Or even my speciality, Not get what Real Wages vs CPI means
Gee there’s some wacky numbers going around just now
Just to put the nigger in the wood pile here. Rumor has it this this poll is close to the mark, but the Gold Goast Bulletin has it ar*e up.
Peter @12 might be on to something because my info agrees with him.
PI.
I agree with you. My informed spy tells me that it is a possible screw up and since we do not know each other the possibility that it is true hangs in the air.
THe GCB crowd are barely literate. I wouldn’t hold out too much hope for a great deal of numeracy there.
Mr Squiggle, all sorts of things could have been done wrong. These guys are rank amateurs so you wouldnt expect any weighting of the results and that’s probably fair enough with these rags, but it could have been basic stats problems, it could have been really dodgy sampling (for instance, ringing during the day is a big no-no if you arent weighting your data.That alone can massively skew your results, and not just by a few percent). There’s a million and one possible problems.
You’re right though, there is some seriously whacky numbers flying around. There has been for quite a while in some places.The ALP had to do some polling twice a few months back in NSW because they didnt believe what they saw the first time round.
Could they really get poll numbers the wrong way round?
There’s been so much talk recently in the media about the crucial seats swinging back to the coalition – could it be correct?
Possum,
What is your E mail address.
Thanks Possum
I think you know I’d love to see a result like this, but even so, whoever managed this poll has been in the sun too long.
Maybe they are just keeping thier circulation numbers up
Does anyone else anticipate a Neilson for tomorrow? I need a reality check
Assume the results of this poll are correct and that the Newspoll state results are correct.
Then there must be swings of 15 per cent in other Queensland seats.
I’ve heard thru the vine as well that it’s not true,the question is how deliberate was the editor in doing what they have done.Disgraceful stuff here.
Spiros,yes there are swings in some seats here in Queensland that are big ,and boy,they’re really big!!!!!
Star at 20
possum_comitatus [at] yahoo dot com dot au
Mr Squiggle, ACN were doing one of their online polls this week that seemed to be around the day, maybe just before the day of the rate rise, so that surely should be out soon.
Do we have a verdict on the online polls yet?
Michael, the ACN ones seem to be pretty good, but they aren’t the usual online polls. The have 70 thousand or 90 thousand odd people on their books or some enormous figure like that, with full demographic data known about each registered person, so they can get a pretty accurate representation of reality out of it when they choose their sample.
Poss,
sounds like you’re saying the real ACN isn’t out till Monday, maybe put back to take account of the rate rise?
After Morgan’s 60+ screamer today and this Bulletin number, I need the real thing, not On-line results with their boatload of bias.
Maybe another galaxy will come through to sooth the nerves
Mr Squiggle,
Expect a Galaxy sometime this weekend (I’m guessing Sunday) on Wentworth.
What has happened to the Advertiser polling? Have they shut up shop?
Swing,
SA aint a big place, they probably ran out of seats
Possum, you have the cred, could you send a note to the GCB and threaten them with Christ knows what if they publish a poll that is knowingly wrong.
So its basically a slow night on the pseph front
anyone heard who will be on lateline?
Did anyone ever actually poll Grey? Wasn’t that the seat where the Libs were fearing a 20% swing in rural SA?
From the link to that rag:
Numbers don’t seem the same -have the changes them? Or have I gone mad?
Stan S,
That’s not a bad idea, Does the Freedom of Information bill allow us to demand access to bodgy poll results?
I’m up for it, just as a pet project, you know?
This poll has as much credibility as my f2f poll at work that produced 80/20 to Labor. But if even partly true, I know which electorate never to live in.
I’ve heard that Dawson in central queensland is in play and that is 10% Nationals territory.
Skunkrat, if you’re wondering why my figures are different from the ones in the article, it’s because I’ve excluded the 12.9 per cent undecided. The GCB article has not changed.
Stan S, I’m not one to stand in between an editor and his need to print twaddle – a free press is a free press is a free press.
But if they do, and I can get evidence that its twaddle, then it deserves to be pointed out in the most brutal way possible.
LET me tell readers a few things about the Gold Coast where I live (I am in Moncreiff, which went Liberal over 19% last election). This place remains the corruption capital of Australia. The poll could well be a fraud, or just a sad reflection on the state of this area.
Ex-councillor Eddie Sarroff is campaigning in McPherson because he has a good reputation as a bloke who stood up to the big property developers who have been running the council for years (the former Deputy Mayor set up a bank account where developers could put deposits “if they felt like it”: he somehow avoided jail time).
Nobody up here even hears about the non-Liberal candidates, because the media is totally controlled by Murdoch and he just doesn’t give them oxygen.
The only way I even knew who my Labor candidate WAS is because I googled it. The Labor Party doesn’t bother spending money on the seats up here, which makes things even worse. IMHO every single seat in Australia should be considered “in play” this year. But actually the local Greens here make more effort than Labor.
Sure, we get all the blue rinse set up, retirees from Sydney and Melbourne. And the old dears will just vote Liberal till they die. But there is a lot of anti-Howard anger around here too. If Labor bothered contesting these Gold Coast seats, you never know what might happen.
PC #40 Publish and be damned hey…..trouble is I bet my lefite that the GCB would not print a retraction ever or until after 24 Nov.
Preview of galaxy on lateline, Mr Moneybags looks secure to me
Hmmm, regional newspaper polling – I remember it well. It was usually the journo or cadet journos wot done it, and while we were always taught to ask for the youngest adult male in the house, and even taking into account we were ringing after six o’clock, we invariably got middle-aged or elderly women. And these were the type who just lived to be polled – you couldn’t get the feckers off the fecking phone.
I well remember one suspiciously high-pitched voice insisting s/he/it was a 30-year-old male – I still noted s/he/its responses accordingly and they probably made up one of the 50 or so responses we actually did manage to note correctly.
Younger women often told us what to do with our survey in no uncertain terms, particularly if there was the sound of a crying baby or the theme tune to Neighbours in the background. Young males do not answer phone calls from strangers. It makes the beer go flat.
I would hope that contemporary polling is done a little more scientifically, but if the Advertiser polls are to be believed, which many here do, why not the fine publication that is the White Shoe Bullsh#tin?
a pisstake of that photo with JWH and teh fallen woman at the shopping centre:
http://s242.photobucket.com/albums/ff86/virtualkat/?action=view¤t=apologise.jpg
John @ 38 – Don’t taunt me. I live in Dawson, and while I’ve got nothing against the Nationals per se, De-Anne’s…. well, she’s De-Anne. An electrical engineering degree and still not the brightest spark around.
Has anyone read the article?
It says
There is no mention of McPherson.
Did they poll Moncrieff, like they say? Or, did they poll McPherson which is held by Maggie May?
I love Laura Tingle
Peter @46 – Agreed but then James doesn’t appear to be foreman material either, perhaps we can just hope for a better local member.
Crikey, I hadn’t noticed that, Barry.
#47 Barry – “Moncrieff on the southern end of the Gold Coast” – that sounds like just the usual crap reporting standards from Murdoch’s Bulletin: McPherson is southern Gold Coast while Moncrieff is central. Typo, IMHO.
I think this campaign desperately needs a poll of Grayndler. And Mallee.
how about a poll of Murray, is that the most conservative seat in the country?
The Border Mail did polls from Indi and Farrer during the 2004 campaign. I visit their website every day, living in hope.
I live on the Gold Coast and know most of the Labor and Liberal candidates. The reason the GCB chose McPherson to poll is that Eddie Sarroff is the Labor candidate. He has been very vocal in the council and there are a lot of people who support him who are not Labor. BTW I went to school with Sarroff’s children only a couple of grades higher.
Gandhi (41) is just another ignorant, slack-jawed, limp-wristed whinger that can’t handle the fact that people on the Gold Coast are discerning, have taste and style, and can’t stand the ALP.
Having lived on the Coast for a few years I can surely vouch for the wisdom of the Coast when it comes to federal elections.
They are self-reliant, hard-working, decent, wholesome achievers that contribute a thousand times more to this country than the usual subsidised, moronic, lazy, good for nothings that infest safe Labor seats like Fowler, Blaxland and Watson.
Lets compare the productivity of National and Liberal Party electorates and comapre them to the slimy laziness of ’safe’ Labor seats.
Rudd might win. But he’ll rely on the decency and hard work of Liberal and National Party voters to keep this country ticking over and to pay for the brain dead, dole bludging scum that make up the bulk of the ALP vote.
Are we expecting ACN to appear on The Age and SMH websites sometime in the next hour?
I live in Blaxland. Sorry that I’m lowering the tone of the nation.
I live in Sydney. We earn more than most of the country put together and we vote Labor.
38
John Says:
November 9th, 2007 at 10:26 pm
I’ve heard that Dawson in central queensland is in play and that is 10% Nationals territory.
Dawson is definately in play for 5 good reasons. 1/ The local ALP candidate in 2004 was a disaster. Her primary vote was lower than the primary senate vote recieved in Dawson. Her primary vote was 31.4% the dawson senate primary was 32.83% which is quite an achievement. 2/ The your rights at work campaign has been red hot in Mackay for over a year. 3/ The increasing trend of coal miners moving their families to Mackay. 4/ Deanne Kelly has never really been liked locally merely preferred to the ALP in the past. 5/ The local media appears to be somewhat anti Deanne Kelly.
How pathetic are these ALP morons, pretending to hold a minority which they never had?
Sydney.pfffffffffffffffffffffffffffffft
More taxpayer subsidised ‘artists’ and thespians than the rest of the country together.
Blaxland? I’m sure the people of Cook agree.
http://www.theage.com.au/news/federal-election-2007-news/labor-holds-big-lead-in-online-poll/2007/11/09/1194329514605.html
Don’t get me started on the “Paul Keating” NSW RIght faction corruption, extended without check from Iemma, across our righteous nation.
This blog is frequented by Isabella
supporter of the dodgy Gold Coast land seller
Wow! Isabella’s taking the pending change of government hard. (56).
Don’t worry my dear. You’ll probably get back in a decade or two.
Isabella:
They are self-reliant, hard-working, decent, wholesome achievers that contribute a thousand times more to this country .
LOL, you forgot to mention delusional.
Isabella at a booth in Melbourne Ports
Handing out HTVs for the Party of business rorts
Actually I’m beginning to wonder if Tabitha has multiple personalities and Isabella is one of them.
I live in Bonner Isabella,and the discerning Burghers here are going to give Ex-Judge Angelo Vastas’ son a good kick in the a*se.From What I hear a lot of good kicks are going to be delivered to Liberal/National members in Queensland,and not before time either.Much hubris coming for the Queensland Branch of the Liberal Party methinks.
who let the dogs out?
#56 Isabella
But the Gold Coast is just one big unwholesome subsidy!
Tourist Dollars, pension and super payments, schoolies money and other injections and finally a reputation for the trivial, cosmetic, false and degrading.
But hey, I’ve never been there. Does it produce anything or is the Gold Coast just a dormitory for recreation and retirement?
I can’t see how the brain dead dole bludging scum can make up the bulk of the ALP vote. There are not that many of them.
Maybe you meant: brain dead + dole bludgers + scum > 0.5* (labor vote)?
Still the brain dead are not Constitutionally entitled to vote, dole bludgers are less than 5% of the population and with say a 44% Labor primary vote, that would mean you classify at least 17% of the Australian population as Scum.
Does that fit your observational experience?
Please correct me if I’ve misunderstood your biting analysis.
“pfffffffffffffffffffffffffffffft.” Can I use that in my next novel, Isabella? It’s so very … evocative.
I think that it is unwise to target somebody just because they have a different view i.e. Isabella. What people say on this site may or may not be right but it important in an democracy for people to be able to speak whether right or wrong. debate with somebody just dont target them becuase it is you who looks like the fool in the end.
Now come on folks don’t be too hard on Isabella. If it wasn’t for decent upstanding people like her – who instinctively know they are better than everyone else and born to rule – this country would have no class at all.
Oh well, if there’s only a small swing to Labor in safe Coalition seats in Queensland, and since there’s a lack of Labor-held seats there, this likely bodes well for Labor pickups.
Disasterboy @ 72 I was born on the Gold Coast, live on the Gold Coast and am a high school teacher. I create the future what do you do.
Thankyou for that Isabella (56), I was wondering where the Aryan race had disappeared to.
Sorry about the grammer I am a maths teacher.
Hey! Isabella (56).
My previous work centred on hunting down fraudsters – especially investment fraudsters. I can assure you that the Australian hot-spots for scumbags who rip off other Australians are ALL strongly Liberal voting electorates (including those Gold Coast seats). Each and every fraudster I caught was linked in to the local ‘conservative’ establishment – Liberal Party, National Party, Shooter’s Party, One nation. It’s a pattern. I’ll admit my bias, but you really should take a long hard look at the attitudes your parents gave you. Travel the world a bit, get a real job and wake up to yourself.
Stephen (74) When people come on this site and effectively start calling all of the Labor supporters on it “dole bludging scum” (and other assorted insults) that is not debate and does not deserve to be treated as such. If people like Isabella want to engage in serious discussion they can start by bringing their manners with them.
Darn @ 81
I agree but even if you are not given it you should at least offer it.
It sounds like the Gold Coast Bulletin does not seem to know whether it’s surveyed McPherson or Moncrieff. If they surveyed McPherson, most of Labor’s vote has come from the minors. If they surveyed Moncrieff, they’ve taken around 7% off the Libs, might be getting up towards 8-9% swing. That sounds consistent with the Newspoll cumulative figures for Queensland.
Peregrine @ 83
I find it hard to believe like you that Eddie Sarroff would not be getting the usual Labor swing or more. However I do not believe there will be a major swing again Ciobo in Moncrieff. He is one of the Liberals best people on the ground and has more support than the rest of the Liberal party put together. I will say however that Sam is a very good candidate for Labor and should have been used in a much better seat.
Well I live in Moncrieff and have been campaigning in McPherson and quite frankly do not believe those figures are anywhere near accurate. As for the Bulletin, pffftt, it’s better known for it’s singles and swinger adds.
Let It End @ 85
How so?
Stephen @ 77
Sorry Stephen, I live in Perth which is a very safe Labor seat.
Since Isabella @ 56 has spoken, this means I am:
37% discerning, have taste and style
5% dole bludger
18% or more Scum
and up to 40% undefined.
I would like to know how Isabella classifies the rest of Labor voters, Green voters and minor party voters. When I know who and how I am, then I might work out what I do.
BTW, thanks for creating the future
Much as what someone does, has always been important to me, it is written (by Isabella) that where you are from and how you vote that’s important.
(In case you missed it, my tirade at the Gold Coast was purely a playful parody of Isabella’s critique of the rest of the Australia. It is consequently unsubstantiated and not meant to be.)
What do I do? I work in IT. Job title is “Technical Systems Analyst”, I also volunteer some time on a Reading in Schools program. But hey, I’m what I eat also!!
If you do teach on the GC and know Eddie as you claim then you surely already know “how so” Stephen.
I live on the GC but work at Victoria Point just to clarify. Most of the people I have talked to are voteing the same way this time as they did last. This includes Liberal, Labor and swing voters, but I don’t know everybody. I do find it intersting the number of kids at my school who have Union rist bands.
sorry ‘wrist bands’
Labor voters = Bludgers
Liberal Voters = Productive workers
I susgest Isabella doesn’t visit the Mine workers for I suspect they work harder and earn more than she does.
Isabella;
http://news.ninemsn.com.au/slideshow.aspx?sectionid=1915&subsectionid=76003§ionname=slideshows&subsectionname=drunkwomen&photo=7
Disasterboy @ 87
I did understand but can never let anybody have a go at the place I was born.
I suppose we’ll have to wait for the full gory details of this poll. It would make it potentially much closer if the 12.9% undecideds were excluded. Annoying it doesn’t say. However, if thats the case then reasonably favourable preference flows and share of the undecided vote would see Labor’s tpp at 46-48. Only just out of striking distance and there would be a reasonable MOE. We are in for a different Australia if seats like McPherson become marginal in a fortnight’s time.
I wish someone would let us in on what the alleged mistake has been with the poll.
ben cousins is a L-E-D-G-E-N-D !!!
which pollies are going for drug law reform (apart from kelly hoare)?
Hi All,
I come from that neck of the woods and Gold Coast (Northern and Central parts) are traditionally Coalition territory. The Southern part of the Coast tends to be Labor.
Eddy Saroff is hugely popular on the Gold Coast. He was a Councillor for many years and he wis well liked. He often gets ejected from the Chambers because he is a thorn in everyone’s side. Like some others on the blog, I think the Bully’s stats are a bit out.
I regualarly go home for a visit (once or twice a week) my feel is that there is a definate big swing towards Labor. I would think, however, the Libs will hold on as there alot of diehard Coalition supporters in McPherson as well as all the rich newbies from Sydney and Melbourne who have moved to the Coast over the last few years.
John Button. and Others.
the demographics of McPherson have changed dramatically over the last three years.
The place is just bursting with young children and young families. it is impossible to book a child into a private school, they are overflowing and there are a heap of them.
The wealthy elderly predominately live in the northern electorates. the southern tip and inland hinterland that make up McPherson have a slightly less wealthy bank account. The self funded retiree are in the more northerly seats, McPherson have the average and pensioner groups at a higher number.
The Gold Coast as a whole have, being a hospitality area would have the highest number of young people on AWA’s . The health system is busting at the seems, sure we know it is a State problem but who has sucked over a billion from the states heath grant when we all know that the cost of health has been rising.
The environment is a hidden agenda here, McPherson with its beaches, the green behind the Gold, hinterland and the mountains are the reason people come to a place like McPherson and the young will protect it with all their might.
The area has a high number of retirees, but they are slowly being replaced and numbered up by the young voter group the 18 — 29 group and we know that they are swinging hard to labor, about 67 –70 %
On nearly every issue, that is a negative for Howard becomes twice the issue for McPherson because all the groups he has screwed over the last eleven years have settled here.
Labor might not win it , but this seat is a real indicator of what is happening all over Australia where only some of the individual issue bite. here they all will.
I reside in McPherson. and like many other posters regard the Gold Coast Bulletin as a rag unfit even to wrap the rubbish in. Interesting that they could not even get the name of the electorate right! There is a definite mood for change here, Margaret May is a non-event as a local member,the demographics here have changed and WC is a big issue for many. Conversely Saroff is highly thought of and well known via his Gold Coast City Council aldermanship as one of the few on that august body who resists the siren calls of the developers. The betting markets are reflecting this and I got on Saroff yesterday @ $3.50, so I get a double bonus if he wins.
Basil, If you follow the betting market then Eddie must have been the biggest shortner in the market.
It was not too long ago, a few months back when Margaret May was unbackable at $1.05 and Eddie the labor candidate was at 14 – 1.
Now , you say he is at $3.50 and I believe he will shorten further .
I got set @ $3.50 on Sportingbet yesterday, on the face of it crazy odds where the Libs have a margin of 15% and it is classed as VERY safe liberal.
Probably already been mentioned, but Possum took a look at Macpherson in August. Worth a look, Isabella, if you’re game.
Forgot the link…
http://possumcomitatus.wordpress.com/2007/08/
95
Hilder Says:
November 10th, 2007 at 2:27 am
ben cousins is a L-E-D-G-E-N-D !!!
Hilder, spelling isn’t important, but if you’re going to scream at us, please try to get it right!.. Your spelling, isn’t a legend, it’s an M-Y-T-H!
For what it’s worth, I think the AFL and the Government should get off this guy’s back, and let him fight his problems in privacy. Of course he shouldn’t, as old time Catholics used to say, “lead others into sin”
Just logged in and read this thread. I have looked at the GCB website and it STILL says “Moncrieff”. There is no mention of McPherson anywhere in the article. If it was a typo they would have corrected it by now. The suspicion must be that they’ve polled Moncrieff, not McPherson, and some moron at the GCB has written up the poll thinking that May and Saroff are the candidates in Moncrieff. The primary vote in Moncrieff in 2004 was 64/24, so this poll’s 49/31 would be quite believable as figures for Moncrieff. In McPherson the primaries were 58/30. I don’t believe that the ALP in McPherson has only risen 1%. Saroff is very popular and has spent a lot of money on his campaign. If this suspicion is correct, they GCB will now be trying to decide whether to come clean or deny all.
possibly has been said previously but IF this poll is correct and the newspoll is correct about the swing in QLD then there is a large swing going on elswhere!!
I will vote for the party that introduces legislation so there MUST be one poll on every day of the election
collingwoodlegend,
Dawson might narrow a bit with the general swing, but even with 90 seats plus, I’d be amazed if Dawson is one of them.
Your 5 reasons: 1/ I would say the 2004 Labor candidate is more respected than this one. You shouldn’t choose an urban trendy who used to have a pony tail to win over the rural National/Labor type voter.
2/ Can’t agree, with Labor shortages as they are, not many are afraid of getting a poor wage.
3/Yes, that will assist Labor to some degree
4/ Deanne Kelly is well liked by many. She has quite a popular profile amongst women. I know more than a few people who don’t like Howard, but vote for her.
5/ Couldn’t agree more. The Mercury has had an influx of a couple of hard left wing journos who are ruining the paper, turning it from a decent community paper, to a political activist’s forum.
I tend to think it more likely that they entered the wrong electorate name in their article than that they failed to notice which electorate they polled. Though you never know I suppose.
WB I think that they polled both electorates, got them ar#e up and it slipped through the system.
I expect some journalist is going to be kicked from one end of the news room to the other end then back again.
They polled the right electorates, got the numbers mixed up and it slipped through the cracks. be interesting to see what the Moncrief poll is if they are actually game to publish it. Still again it could be the other next door seat of Forde as both of those with these results while disappointing for Labor could be made believable but not McPherson.