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587 Comments
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I for one believe that the “rate rise spike” in the polls is tied in with when the letter from the bank, informing the mortgagee that he/she/they have to pay more, arrives in the mail box.
I assume that NAB customers will be getting theirs next week.
299 – very good, Ashley.
On the ‘internal polling’….
I had a chat to a friend of mine who let’s just say is ‘in’ with the ALP campaign. Says all their polling is suggesting victory BUT he says it will be VERY close and somewhere between 76-80 seats rather than the 85+ the polls suggest.
He says their is a great deal of worry about WA (nothing new here) but that they’re not particularly positive about QLD or VIC either. He also mentioned that there is no way that Howard or Turnbull will lose their seats.
I was a little dissapointed to be honest. I’ve been locked into here and possom’s site, hoping for a bloodbath….
With all the Liberal bias from the mainstream media and the ABC I read about on this site. The ALP will lose this election in a landslide!
7 news sydney
lead story
Sorrygate (non apology)
rates rises
cranky old man saying sorry but not apologising
Rodent is fatally flawed here
the end of the rodentcy is nigh
# 303 Yo ho ho Says: November 9th, 2007 at 11:31 am
’twill be a bloodbath, make to mistake.
Yo ho ho – the internal polls you hear about are almost certainly cr#p. They spend much to much on that stuff to let some eejit spruik it to their mates. No-one who’s actually keen to tell you such stuff is going to have access to it.
Maybe Milne thinks this turning point is the one where the Libs REALLY get shafted in the polls. I’m hanging out for a 60:40 sometime soon …
There once was a PM called John
Who was known for his Workchoices con
He promised low rates
‘just vote for me and me mates’
But the people wanted Rudd & Swan
Guys
It won’t be a bloodbath. Labor has never won in a landslide and they won’t this time either.
It will be close – all the reports over the past few weeks that I have read suggest that the key seats are not as optimistic for labor as we’d hope.
I am very nervous about this election – it is not over by a long shot and we may still have John Howard for PM on 25 November.
M
Yes Milne said that it would be a turning point. If anyone is interested the audio is HERE
301 Fagin probably best to read the story in the SMH. re timing of extra payments.
Here we go again: http://www.smh.com.au/news/National/PM-unsure-over-Bennelong-in-opposition/2007/11/09/1194329465912.html
He loves a wedge, even on himself.
sportingbet has labor leading in 15 and dead even on 1 with no loses
Howard has to go because he has become an autocrat…he doesn’t listen and that he didn’t stand down when his party wanted him to shows he has no sense of democracy. He is listening to his more powerful mates Cheney and Bush…..those long visits were not for nothing. But as they have proved in other interventions,they too are out of touch and we here have better sh*t -detectors…..I hope! This time!
As to Crikey, this PB site is much better….informed, rumour and best of all HUMOUR. Lighten’s this ‘amateur’ lurker’s day!
New Nicholson on the non-core apology. This one’s better than usual:
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/opinion/animations/0,25199,22,00.html
If any PB’s who live in North Sydney can get around to Hockey’s office to see this
[from the Get Up organization]
please report back on how it was?
:) thanks 
(sure that it will likely be on the news tonight anyways, but would be nice to have a first hand account)
Agree with Michael. Hope everyone is helping out on election day. BTW guys, keep going on about so and so is hot/goodlooking and I will engage Julie, Jen et al on Tony Abbott’s pecs and that hunk in the National party.
Shanahans at it again, the car firms have come out and denied the truth of this article, there was no letter, they’ve authorised their association do give full denials, in fact one company said they have just signed off on an enterprise bargaining wage deal with their workers to everyone’s satisfaction.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22727906-5013871,00.html
Lindsay voter. Point well made. I’ll keep it to myself. The mad abbotts pecs?? Ewwwww!!!
I’ve decided to tackle the Liberal Party logo as it seems to have disappeared from their website, campaign etc. They must have been working on a new one, just haven’t revealed it yet.
Either way, I thought I’d trump their effort with my own attempt for all those with a love affair with Team Rat.
http://www.aquafruzzl.com/media/images/rattus.jpg
This is what Get Up is doing, sorry I hit send before I put the rest of it in …
“We can now proceed with the second stage of our campaign! This Friday we’ll be in North Sydney to plaster IR Minister Joe Hockey’s office in our massive ‘Know Where We Stand’ post-it notes -”
Lindsay voter, is this some sort of anti-Julie and Jen smear campaign?
The Prime Minister was spouting crazy stuff yesterday, such as a Labor win would increase the divorce rate and reduce the fertility rate. It was on radio yesty but can’t find anything in the papers today.
The Tiser reports that the Libs will use expensive personalized TV advertising to try to hold on to Wakefield and Boothby.
More “accurate” is the expected seat count, averaged across bookies. The 3 bookie expected number of seats was 78.8 as of yesterday lunchtime (courtesy of Simon Jackman’s blog).
We know the punters are being conservative in the seat-by-seat betting. And even so, Labor would still be expected to win 79 seats on average (if we could hypothetically rerun the election multiple times, and the bookies odds were actually and accurate reflection of probabilities).
The expected seat count has been slowly rising the past week. I reckon by the time we get to election day it will be into the mid-80s.
Anyone who believes anything Milne says is a fool. He is nothing more than a Liberal Party hitman pretending to be a journalist.
scaper, i don’t know if anyone has replied to you already re dr karl, but try sydney uni site – he works (?still does) there. last name is kruselnicki. major league dork, but that’s another story.
I heard the new Liberal logo is an ‘L’ shape made by a human hand.
Much of the media bias, though, is really just a reflection of the media’s need to make this into more of a contest for its own selfish reasons.
If you’ve ever worked in the media, you’d know that it’s a big ask every day to fill up all that empty air time or white space. So you are inclined to ‘beat’ stories up, to exagerrate and amplify otherwise inconsequential events (’Latham throws a bombshell’) and to rely on media whore rent-a-quotes (Kroger, Henderson) who would comment on the sun coming up if you asked them to .
For the purposes of your job and to keep the advertisers happy (or in the ABC’s case, the board), you simply can’t run each day with the headline ‘Labor Still On Course for Victory’ because it would cease to be ‘news’ after a day or two.
So you have to create a new narrative every day, or every hour on radio and every minute on the internet and wire services. As it happens, it is the Howard forces who are most willing to feed the voracious media, because they do not have control of the narrative. They must make up a new story every day.
Do you see where this is heading? There is a commonality of interests between the media and the Howard forces to create the illusion that the Liberals are in with a sniff in this election. Both of them need a new story every day.
The fact is that forced to choose between reporting on a drowning man (Howard) or the sunbaker (Rudd), the media will choose the drowning man every time.
Liberal is for the wealthy and mean
Labor is for the Australian dream
Milne has about as much knowledge about politics as Tabitha.
Is Morgan Poll out later today?
BrissyRod you are on fire! Brilliant. Almost LOL in the middle of my quiet open plan office.
Morgan Poll: Anyone know what time its due out?
But even if you choose the drowning person you can make the story interesting & not rely on the daily talking points.
We should have had many discussions on what a re-elected Howard nee Costello ministry would like, but nada.
There are many groups that would give their a5rms for some airtime so I do not completely buy the filling up air line – its just that they use the usual “hacks”.
That Nicholson cartoon raises a good point. If saying “sorry” doesn’t amount to an apology, what harm would come by saying it to indigenous people?
Middleman – usually about 2pm – but the site is hard to get onto until about 4
please, can someone clarify this…
Is Latham still in ALP? Does he still paying party membership fee?
Thanks Michael.
So that would be 1pm up here in Brisbane?
Someone mentioned that PollBludger is much better than Crikey.
That’s because Crikey has to pay its bloggers.
We hate Howard for free.
331 [Is Morgan Poll out later today?]
Yes and Howard is out in just over two weeks time.
Thanks ashley, portland bet has 17 leading and 2 dead even
Maybe the Libs have realised that the ‘L’ logo is similar to the ‘L’ pates they are sticking on pictures of the Labor front benchers … Trying to differentiate themselves perhaps?
Regarding all this talk of landslides, tight contests etc… all I can recall is that the day after the last election I woke up in my back sunroom, upright in my armchair, the remains of a six pack and a bottle of red strewn on the floor, Howard was still PM, and the night before I had passed out before the pizza delivery guy had got there.
That was not a good feeling. I really dont want that again. I’m doing my best to keep my expectations low.
PeterM at 333, I forgot to mention in my drowning man analogy that aside from its insatiable and voracious appetite making the media a sucker for junk news, spin and kite flyers, the industry’s other great appetite is laziness.
You won’t hear much about what a 5th term Howard/Costello would be like, because that requires journalists to actually work, rather than just passively recycle the Liberals’ talking points of the day.
Actually, come to think of it, I’m guilty of that myself, having wasted an entire morning trawling this blog rather than doing what I’m paid to do.
MIddleman – on 2004 I arrived at Heathrow after a 24 hour flight only to receive a text message from a friend, expressing despair. It was not a good start to my holiday.
It was at Heathrow 4 weeks later, when I was returning home, that I discovered on the TV screens around the terminal that George Bush had been re-elected.
Needless to say I avoid heathrow during elections these days.
Judy 318,
regardless of Scamaham’s reporting, present government policy is a death sentence for the car industry. They have all given up trying to make economical cars and put their eggs in the same basket – making large, not very economical cars for some local use and export. We all know local demand for those cars is down. But what peope forget is that with Kyoto entering the “penalty phase” in 2008 for teh signatory countries (whether we sign or not) many of the export markets may dry up as well. They are already making losses, and that would kill most of them. Ford is at least saying they will make the Focus here now. GMH actually did a prototype Commodore Hybrid, but decided not to make it here.
We have gotten very poor value out of the $3bn assistance package. No trully new model cars were developed, just updates of the old ones, and no new efficient engines, which are critical. If it really takes $3bn to save 7000 jobs, then at $428,000 each it would have been chaper to buy every worker a house and tell them to retire! It probably sounds bizarre but I live in Adelaide hope Mitsubishi closes. With the Lonsdale engine plant already closed there are less than 4000 jobs left. In the current market everyone would get a job quickly, especially if mechanically qualified. Others could be retrained. It would also make some prime land available for housing, which the supply-constrained market bady needs. Labor’s policy to support developing a cleaner car locally is a vast improvement.
This straight from simon jackman’s blog, which is pretty great….he collaborates odds from centrebet, sportingbet and portlandbet and turns them into probabilities and whacks them into groovy graphs. It’s updated daily. Today’s analysis:
“ALP Expected Seat Count: 78.85 out of 150 seats. Yesterday: 78.83 out of 150. Computed as the sum of the 3-agency-average seat-by-seat ALP win probabilities.”
Here’s the address sorry… http://jackman.stanford.edu/oz/Aggregate2007/bettingmarkets/index.php
OOps – last message not very clear – the text message was reporting on the 2004 election result, which i didn’t know because i was mid air
Michael, I’m calling Qantas now to ensure there is an embargo on you purchasing ANY international fights.
Dave55
Libs are still on their ‘L’ plates?
Wonder if our friend Bill Leak….
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