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Scotty – is that up or down?
Can anyone elucidate why they reckon that there would be numerous undecided (or Morgan”s mythical “soft Labor”) voters who’ll give a rat’s arse what Latham has to say about Rudd?
Mark is widely, if unfairly, perceived as the Ben Cousins of politics, a huge waste of the natural gifts which he once possessed.
Well that makes me feel a lot better – even if it is a Morgan.
Morgan headline is up:
Telephone Morgan Poll: ALP Lead By 12% In Wake Of Interest Rate Rise – ALP 56%, L-NP 44%
This series had labor at 54.5 last time around.
365 Shanghai Surprise, that was hilarious.
150 – 200, i.e. margins of error of 7 or 8%
Clarence @392
Those poll findings were actually reported in the SMH online this morning but it does not mention if it was new data or old?
Yawn. If the election ends up being any less than 53-47 I’ll be surprised.
Sample size of 552 sounds useless to me
The first Morgan Poll since this week’s interest rate rise (interviewing conducted November 7/8) finds the ALP has a 12% lead on a two-party preferred basis: ALP 56% (up 1.5% since the last telephone Morgan Poll on October 24/25), L-NP 44% (down 1.5%).
The ALP would win in a landslide if the Federal election were to be held now, the latest telephone Morgan Poll finds.
The Coalition’s primary vote is 39% (down 2%), while Labor’s primary vote is 44.5% (up 0.5%).
Among the minor parties: Greens 10.5% (unchanged); Democrats 2% (up 0.5%); Family First 1.5% (up 0.5%); One Nation 1% (up 0.5%); and Independent/Other candidates 1.5% (unchanged).
A majority of electors (58.5%, down 5%) think the ALP will win the next Federal election, while (28.5%, up 1.5%) think the L-NP will win and 13% (up 3.5%) can’t say.
Now, 55.5% (down 8%) think Australia is heading in the “right direction”, while 31% (up 3%) think Australia is heading in the “wrong direction” — 13.5% (up 5%) are undecided.
Currently, 19% (down 4%) of all electors say Australia is “heading in the right direction” yet say they would vote Labor if an election were held today. The Morgan Poll considers these electors to be “Soft ALP voters” and believe they are the key to the Federal election.
These are the main findings of a Roy Morgan telephone survey conducted November 7/8, 2007, with 552 Australian electors.
Of all electors surveyed, 3.5% did not name a party.
Electors were asked: “If a Federal election for the House of Representatives were being held today – which party would receive your first preference?”
Morgan. Ho-hum.
Well, we all have to take Morgan with a grain of salt imo, but it has sometimes shown up as a start of a trend in the other polls.
Are we expecting a Neilsen tonight/ tomorrow?
Nothing to do with the topic! I see a huge future for the Greens in coming state and federal elections. There will be a significant increase in our vote in 2007 and when climate change starts to hit hard it will propel the greens into lower house seats both federally and state. Sadly it takes something that will impact dramatically on all our lives for this to happen.
The Advertiser polls more than 500 for their individual seat polls !
I think it’s safe to assume that the primary split is solid at 45 to 40.
Labor has done what it had to do, which is put a “4″ in from of its primary vote.
Deo – Latham is gold for the ALP. Howard’s non-apology is still running along nicely and all Latham will do is remind us that Rudd is a long way away from him. Rudd wants to look like Howard, except for certain bits, which he chooses.
In moments of stress, chant this useful mantra:
Howard’s gone, it’s all over. Howard’s gone, it’s all over. (repeat as many time as required to achieve inner harmony).
Ooh – I made the cardinal sin of not checking sample size!!!
Pretty useless isn’t it?
Another rate hike
But Howard is not sorry
See my one finger
MoE on sample of 522 about 4.3
Yes, but the Labor primary at 44.5 seems low?
Coalition on39!
Good news but yes I know it is Morgan!!! Still good news – still ahead!!!!!!!!!
Morgan is very disappointing and very worrying.
I was hoping for 63-37.
Morgan proves the gap is narrowing (even though it doesn’t actually show that); that the Coalition’s campaign is now firmly on message; that the Garrett gaffe was hugely significant; that voters believe that the Coalition are superior economic managers; that Labor’s swing is p in all the wrong seats; that the betting markets are all wrong; that Howard will pull a rabbit out of his hat; and that Joe Hockey isn’t nearly as fat and ugly as he looks.
Oh dear, oh me, oh my.
This poll is a joke.. Sample size too damn small. But at least it is still positive for the Reds
Julie:
That cartoon reminds why I can’t stand Mark Knight in the Herald-Sun: Knight’s little figure making a sotto voce remark at the end of each strip is a blatant rip-off from a funnier, more incisive counterpart – but because Pat Oliphant’s work never appears in Australia this fact is never picked up.
Incidentally, Oliphant was born in Adelaide!
Middle man,
There are so many people in your position out there of talent and passion for this nation, there is certainly enough room for a new political force.
But then again, if the predictions here are on the high side concerning seats lost by the coalition, there is every chance that the party can be refashioned into a viable alternative in the future.
Time will tell.
“IT’S ONLY A MORGA’n’ POLL (BUT I LIKE IT)”
Sample size of 552? Roy needs to pull his socks up and his finger out if he wants his data taken seriously.
He can’t say sorry.
Must be a defective gene.
Vote for someone else.
My little chant goes
Good bye Johnny
Good John
Johnny you are gone.
There is a tune, but not sure what it is.
I find myself singing it at quite inappropriate moments. I think an increasing number of people think I’m mad.
CL de Footscray Says:
Rudd wants to look like Howard, except for certain bits, which he chooses.
So Howard must be doing something right if the ALP needs to use a Howard type leader. Its not about doing the best for the people anymore it is just the grab for power and screw the disadvantaged. The election result will make no difference in Kingston and funnily enough the YR@W group will be continuing long after a win by either party
Spiros – (i) this is a Morgan Poll; (ii) the sample size is 522 – see #418; (iii) it has the Greens on more than 10% – unlikley; (iv) it shows an increase in ALP primary.
Do not be alarmed. All is well. The evidence is with us …
That’s it ladies and gentleman (oh, yes ’sorry’, and troll!), so much for Howard’s momentum…it’s all DOWNWARDS!
Now, Kev just has to get some rest, stay alert, smile a bit and enjoy his final lap to the Lodge.
The Rodent is about to get battered by his very own cheer squad: the “Howard Batterers”
In fairness Knight did have one good cartoon just after the 2004 election. It depicted Howard power-walking in tracksuit, relentlessly marching over mountains, through raging torrents, walls, minefields etc.
It crystallized my despair perfectly. Hopefully his batteries have nearly run down for good.
420 Spiros Touche re 429
CL de Foots-a-crie @429
I was kidding.
Megan, the Boomer demographic did begin in 1946. I am one of the early ones myself. And there are many, many of us over 55 and still believe in the values of the left. We were radicalised during the Vietnam era, and while we have mellowed, we have not changed to the dark side. Incidentally if you think that 11 years of arid Howard conservatism is bad, I was 23 before I experienced a Labor government. The election parties of 2 Dec 1972 were some celebration! I look forward to a similar experience on November 24.
Howard’s spooky stuff about divorce and fertility rates was replayed on Radio National’s The Word Today during a discussion with Peter Beattie and M Kroger. Beattie said it was sad, desperate. Kroger said it was fair enough for Howard to stand on his record, or something. It was a speech Howard gave in Melbourne.
passthepopcorn:
Last night in relation to this you asked if I felt a bit sad for the ageing Rodent. After due consideration, I replied (but it was lost during the glitches) …
“Er, no. Normally, I would extend sympathy and compassion, but this is a particularly virulent creature that has been stalking the populace for years, wreaking untold damage – a Rogue Rodent, in fact. In a situation such as this, there is but one option … a Mr Rudd, from the tropics, has been engaged by the villagers to do the deed. We wish him all the best in this endeavour.”
so no farce to farce polling… erm face to face polling ?
scaper. if the libs are refashioned it will probably be by the religious right. The young Libs are infested.
start afresh if you want a new force. there’s too much history in both parties.
Seems to me Morgan phone polls are artificially inflating the green vote, and taking it directly from Labor primary.
Their past 3 phone polls have put the Labor primary on an average of 44.5.
Meanwhile their past 3 face-to-face polls have Labor primary on 48.5.
If you look at the Lib primary vote it is pretty much the same for each of those 6 polls… around 39.5.
The “drop” in the Labor primary when they do a phone poll is matched by a corresponding increase in the Green primary vote. I suspect this is a sampling issue.
It’s the same reason why Howard adopted nearly all of Keating’s policies in 1996, including Medicare and Superannuation, which he had repeatedly voted against in parliament.
This is nothing new.
Rudd knows he can’t do the best for the people unless he has power.
Only the impotent remain pure…
Attention everyone, it’s not the size of the sample, it’s the direction of the swing!
All the other polls, and especially the venerable ACN will show the same thing.
In other words, Howard’s finished. Hoist on his own petard, shafted on his own glib non-core promise, and choked on his own inability to say that little word starting with ’s’.
Abbott said it better: “Sh!t happens”, yeah, like rate hikes in your election campaign!
Kindly Workchoices
To stop my wage from rising
Why am I not pleased?
Middle man,
You are most probably right.
A new party it is.
Be back later.
bill weller – as you may know, the Australian electorate is very conservative. however the evidence suggests that while they are comfortable with a particular style of government (predisposed towards the interests of capital, while acknowledging the rights of workers and the need for socially progresive programs like Medicare) they have become very unhappy with the execution of this style by the incumbent. Rudd would not win by advocating the overthrow of capitalism, which in any event is not a position he has ever supported. He has a good chance to win by maintaining key postions on economic management, but emphasising economically responsible, socially progressive and redistributive policies that Howard has ignored, neglected, or simply f@#ked up. So when he wants to be like Howard, he wants to adopt the broad Australian psotion on matters economic. He has, however, differentiated himself and labor on many fronts where it is clear that the electorate has grown most tired of the rat.
Here endeth the leson.
422,
If Oliphant is an Aussie by birth and works/lives in the USA; he went the WRONG way.
I’ve done the opposite and I will tell you, no one is perfect but we are much better off here.
I was searching actually for something else and stumbled upon that, the “chickens coming home to roost” line reminded me of the way that Howard is being treated now and will be in the short term future lol ………
HOWARD PRESS CONFERENCE ON SKY:
As a neutural watcher, I am getting the feeling that Howard is nearly fatally misreading the public mood.
When you compare concurrent Morgan phone polls their is no significant change, a very marginal change towards “headed in the wrong direction”. I think it will take a little more time for the interest rate rise to sink in and you need some good qualitative polling in mortgage belt seats to pick up any movement. Anyhow so much for the mythical narrowing. I like to think of “the narrowing” as a mythical beast killed of by climate change and hubris.
One thing the Morgan shows in the phone polls and the F2F is that the LNP are not moving and the ALP firm.
Is today a Happy John or Grumpy John day? It seems to depend on what side of bed he got out of.
Spiros
sorry, have lost sense of humour in struggle with los panickos …. in future will read ALL of posts before responding …
Ashley 438,
Good analysis.. In total agreement… I really expect more from Roy. I always rated his polling in previous elections. Now his polling seems to be a bit off.
ACNeilsen gets my vote these days and Galaxy to a lesser extent. Newspoll will always has my sceptism due to its alignment to the Howard Cheerleading Association aka News Limited.
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