Curiously, all we have from Morgan so far is a small-sample telephone poll conducted over the past two nights showing Labor’s lead at 56-44, about half way between last week’s face-to-face and the previous phone poll a fortnight ago. The press release continues to assure us that “the ‘face-to-face’ Morgan Poll is the only Australian public opinion poll conducted every week”. So where is it?
UPDATE: Morgan have just added a new poll from the same sample covering attitudes to the Tamar Valley pulp mill, so maybe they’re not done for the day.
429 Comments
the dog ate it?
I was wondering the same thing, although i feel the phone polling matches other polls more closely.
Another narrowing?
Yes which is weird because the F2F usually has a much bigger sample size.
I mean 552 people is a bit ordinary 2 weeks out from an election
Posted this on previous thread, but check out this great ABC article re the blogateriat:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/11/09/2086436.htm
William, Poss, Simon all get a run and it bags the tripe out of the Oz.
Gold.
Has anyone seen anything on the TV reports with pictures from the GetUp people posting all the PostIt notes at Hockey’s office at 12:30? I have 9 and the cricket on so am not getting Sky’s News today (likely the first place it will show)
When you think about it, the Morgan poll is showing a 3 per cent movement, which is probably about what you’d expect the impact of the interest rate rise to be… perhaps???
a bit on the small side of things, but I like the numbers. They will probably release the f2f later in the arvo, as happened a couple of weeks ago.
A Labor scare campaign would be very easy to make right now. Nukes – where abouts? Here? Or here? Or maybe even here? Nobody is safe from John Howard’s plan for nuclear reactors.
Yes, methinks the nukes will go off shortly. Hope youve built your anderson shelter.
Great work Burgey, a very good read.
And they should do another one about leadership uncertainty.
They shouldn’t say “A vote for Howard is a vote for Costello”, they should say “A vote for Howard could be a vote for Costello, Abbott, Downer, Nelson, Turnbull – which one? Nobody knows.”
Showson:
A vote for Howard is a vote for Howard is scary enough
SHowsOn – yes, as mumble has said that is the scarier proposition – uncertainty. That way Rudd can say that he offers a sure captaincy, while the liberals will be in disarray
8 Talking of Morgan face to face polling in Nuclear power station territory. Morgan was at Deception Bay doing face to face interviews last week end. I’m sure people around Brough’s electorate will be very keen to see the face to face poll.
Well, another slow news day.
Both parties are surely going to try and grab the headlines this weekend, leading into the penultimate week of campaigning.
So will there be some policy released this afternoon?
Or will they both be aiming for the Sunday papers and Sunday evening news. I would guess so.
Anybody care to suggest what there next big policies might be? Maybe more on education from the ALP? They still haven’t put out their full higher education policy have they?
Who has any news that they can update us with on Matt Price? I recall that at least one PB had a channel of information …….
What was Howards news conference that was mentioned on the other thread about?
Hussey gets his ton.
Why don’t possum and william organise their own poll, pick out the people here with a bit of balance, randomly allocate 20 phone numbers etc, could be more interesting than wiating for the next biased newspoll.
17 The news conference was about the world not ending just because the Howard regime ends.
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/news/national/climate-change-not-the-end-of-the-world-pm/2007/11/09/1194329464777.html
Can anyone explain the significance of the two different TPP figures that Morgan gives? i.e. T?he one that allocates preference according to 2004 election flow and the one that allocates according to the voters stated intention. I don’t think there statistically significant so why publish them ? They only confuse things and give an opportunity for spin doctors to read ion things that are not there.
Can anyone explain the significance of the two different TPP figures that Morgan gives? i.e. The one that allocates preference according to 2004 election flow and the one that allocates according to the voters stated intention. I don’t think there statistically significant so why publish them ? They only confuse things and give an opportunity for spin doctors to read ion things that are not there.
I also tend to think Morgan’s phone polling is better. Less stratospheric numbers. So im not that interested in the f2f.
Again, the only real point to Morgan is comparing it to the last Morgan. Its better on trends than absolute numbers.
Clarence the Clocker, bingo! You’ve won the door-prize.
A radiation leak cover up.
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/news/national/investigation-into-defence-radiation-leak/2007/11/09/1194329453374.html
Ugh that’s a horrible picture of the dessicated rodent on that brisbane times link.
Morgan have also released data re pulp mill:
http://www.roymorgan.com/news/polls/2007/4238/
“Gunns’ Pulp Mill – Majority Of Electors Want Federal Government Inquiry & Only 24% Approve Of The Pulp Mill”
Can anyone give me the URL of that sample-size/error calculator? With only 500 responses that must have an error of worse than 2%, making it not really able to discern any trends relative to other recent polls.
Socrates
MOE = 100/sq root of sample size
eg for Morgan 100/ 23.49 = 4.25
27 You thought that was bad Check out the bumbler who refuses to resign.
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/news/queensland/foreign-doctors-lash-out-at-andrews/2007/11/09/1194329470500.html
Ah, steve, that reminds me, I need to watch some episodes of Get Smart I have on tape later today…
“the old sim card in the back of a burning car trick”
this is starting to remind me more and more of the dying days of the McMahon government, although if I recall correctly, McMahon lacked the mendacity of the marsupial known as the rodent.
steve: once a climate skeptic, always a climate skeptic
once a lying scumbag, always a lying scumbag
That’s howard for you
That comment on Climate Change by Howard just gives Labor more ammo to throw at him.
Low Labour Primary (44). What’s with that? Seems strange that the interest rates would swing people’s primaries across to greens, Dems and the wacko’s.
It’s all in the right direction, sod the size of the sample!
On another bit of news in this very dull day, here’s Howard trying to claim that Latham’s comments reinforce his message that Labor have another radical agenda:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/11/09/2086407.htm
So how does Howard ‘pounce’ on Latham’s comments when he’s actually saying the complete opposite?
Where are the real journalists? This stuff is such inane drivel a fifth grader could see through it.
Spot the false statement:
Latham:”Behind the scenes, they are reassuring each other that once Howard has gone a radical reform program can begin. I think the reverse is true. I expect a Labor administration to be even more timid, more conservative.”
Howard:”Peter Garrett had said we’d change it all when we get in, and Mark Latham says that we all expect, we all hope, that it will be a lot more, he uses the word ‘progressive’, I use the word ‘radical’, a lot more radical if the Labor Party gets in.”
Talk about the spin cycle! Howard is a washing machine gone mad! You can’t use Latham’s complaint, and it is a complaint, that Rudd will be a conservative and spin this to mean that Garrett was accurately saying they have a radical agenda up their proverbial sleeve!
Howard is drowning and clutching at any piece of sh!t that floats by; even Latham!
BenC
Thanks, in that case this really means nothing. 56 +/-4.25 = 51.75 to 60.25
Oh dear, this will conjure up some horrible imagery:
Ewwww!
http://news.ninemsn.com.au/article.aspx?id=319506
Socrates at 38:
The ‘margin of error’ measure is really only of use when comparing a number of consecutive data points.
It would be extremely difficult to draw a useful conclusion from any one poll in isolation (except the one in 15 days time, which has an adequate sample size to be significant).
yeah thats a terrible thing for Howard to ge saying. Only one issue. Rudd can just list the others now… health, education spending, broadband, water, climate change, infrastructure etc etc… and then ask “Does Mr Howard think there is nothing wrong with any of this?”
that can be dismantled in so many ways…
Yes, KR (37).
Howard reminds me of the cockroaches in my kitchen. I kill them by pouring hot water on them (less messy, try it!). They go ballistic and thrash about wildly before expiring in a heap. Rather like the final scene in Terminator where the cyborg is flailing about in the vat of molten metal. (BTW, cockies die very quickly in hot water, unlike Howard).
I want my nukes and I want them now. Where has Howard hidden them?
http://blogs.brisbanetimes.com.au/bluntinstrument/archives/2007/11/wheres_the_nuke.html
Steve #26
Please don’t take the MSM as authoritative, the article reeks of sensationalism and may well be the product of ignorance.
Beryllium is a ‘light metal’ with many applications, including electronic and radar systems. Most electronic gadgets have small amounts of beryllium-copper alloy in them. It is expensive, so it more likely to be found in high quality military equipment than Chinese DVD players.
It is NOT radioactive, but is be used as a neutron reflector and/or moderator in things that go bang.
There is real concern about beryllium is long term contact and inhalation of beryllium dust or fumes.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beryllium
Let me see:
‘Sorry is not an apology’
‘Climate change is not the end of the world. Economic managament is much more important’
‘Latham comments reveal ALP’s secret desire’
It is a slow news day, but you must admit that Howard has seriously lost the plot. This stuff is nuts.
As a new visitor to this site I can only assume it is for Labor friendly types consumed with hatred for anyone who does not share their point of view, namely the hated Howard. Name calling is a sure sign of intolerance, many of us
disagree with a lot of politicians policies, but don’t attack the person. It goes
without saying I won’t be interested in again visiting this site, intelligent comment can be found elsewhere. Once Rudd is in power, who will be the target
of these anonymous haters?, probably those people brave enough to criticise
Rudd, Mark Latham is right, a society hiding from itself.
Thank You
On another topic, how good a start to the summer is the test at the Gabba? Three centurions in the first innings of the first test? You beauty!
OK. This is me putting my head on the block.
OZ editorial: “In the final analysis, after due consideration and with a wink to the future and going forward, but with some reluctance, The Australian finds itself in a dilemma. Er. Cough. A vote for that Rudd thingy would not be a total disaster. We will survive! It’s just that Mr Howard has been so good and the question to be asked is: Is it fair to impose another term on this wonderful leader? He does look tired. Maybe we should give the young buck a go. We are not totally convinced he has it in him, but he has shown a disturbing tendency to lead the pack. Therefore, er, well, erm, he probably won’t do any harm … and he has a few ideas and such so, yeah, ok …”
I am prepared for flak.
Morgan reported on News Radio, BTW
col:
http://www.amishrakefight.org/gfy/
347 Andos, Clarke still on 97, hope you haven’t jinxed him!
Yes, thanks Col. Anything constructive to add?
Is Channel 9 delayed? (Clarke’s close but not over the 100 yet)
welcome col to this blog. For someone new to this site, you seem to make a lot of assumptions on people’s background, allegiances and future opinions.
It is best to take everything you read with a grain of salt, your first post included.
I always love Morgan’s Q. “Do you think Australia is heading in the right direction?” I would answer yes to that because we are heading for a labor government. Fingers crossed!
Col: Two words.
Harden up.
col@46
Look mate, we’ve had a decade of that rodent pouring his small minded bile over anyone he thought he could walk over, while the media, (like the tawdry tart that it really is), magnified his message and genuflected to his averageness.
We’ve had enough, the electorate has finally grown tired of his shrill squeaking and now want rid of him.
Come here and rejoice, or not, but don’t try and insult us with your superior ‘intelligence’ while we are having such a great time watching the death throes of this geriatric rodent.
Good to see Hussey get some time in the middle. I was beginning to think that his spot might be at risk due to him getting out of form because he wasn’t getting any batting time. His average is starting to slip- only 85.6 now!
Clarke has his century now
You’re right Boll, that was bad form on my part.
Thankfully, he kept his head.
Now that’s a ton Andos.
Hey Col,
We got the name calling from one of the Liberals.
Check out the picture of Howard and the woman who fell over. Looks almost as though he just decked her, and he’s now telling her off.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/11/09/2086754.htm
Here’s a photo of John Howard after knocking down a defenceless woman on the campaign trail:
http://abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/11/09/2086754.htm?section=justin
“Scumbag!”
#61 Beautiful, i think he’s giving her a good talking to about her choice of tracksuit.
Yep Col 46, you are right. Howard is an erudite, interesting, humble, compassionate and fundamentally likeable guy with rubbish policies.
Curiously, he told her off using the word “sorry”.
Howard was saying……”NOW you will sign that AWA!!!!!”
Caption to the pic of Howard and the bowled over ‘maiden’:
“Ah, no, I won’t say sorry”
http://abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/11/09/2086754.htm?section=justin
“Tell Peter if he wants the damn job so much he can come himself next time and not send his henchwomen!”
Col@46
I bet you came back to see what we said about you.
Go on, admit it.
“you’re just the type of broken home, childless wench i was talking about!”
Col-I woulndt say Im consumed with hatred for the Tories-its something much much worse. And this ‘play the ball not the man’ stuff give me a break.All politics is personal.
‘Howard KOs middle aged woman, taunts her a la Muhammad Ali’
“I’m the Greatest!”
Howard to decked woman: “I’m sorry that it happened. But that’s not an apology”.
Or: “We will dcide who comes to Penrith Plaza, and the circumstances under which they come”.
Or: “If it’s any consolation, I can offer you a week’s unpaid grandparents’ leave”.
Or: “Amanda! I thought you were still it Italy”
Posted this earlier today but it’s worth repeating on this thread.
This is the third telephone poll Morgan has done since mid october and all of them have the ALP primary at 44 to 45%. The much larger face to face polls on the other hand have consistently shown Labor’s primary at 47%+. Morgan himself has said in the past that his telephone polls tend to understate the ALP vote and this seems to be further evidence of that.
So all in all, I believe there is reason for optimism from these figures, even if Morgan is not our favourite pollster.
My feisty little Chinese wife having only these past few years been coached in politics was livid at Latham and asks how could such a person expect to be PM. Anyway, Latham has made himself irrelevant to the community having already declared his position as chief ALP hater.
Someone noted in the other thread that the ALP had an asset in the blogosphere if it knew how to use it. This was my contention also the other day. The best way to get a message heard is if it comes from family and friends – not advertising or TV. Thus the idea of say a person emailing a short message/alert etc to 6 people and asking them to do the same and so on quite quickly covers a very large segment of Australia.
It appears in the polls that the LNP have reached peak primary from the minor parties and the only way they can advance now is to take it off the ALP. The last 5 Morgans however show that primary to be made of concrete.
I’m waiting/hoping for a interest rate bounce of a fraction.
Lib MHR’s interviewing for exciting new careers.
javascript:window.open(’http://media.news.com.au/multimedia/mediaplayer/index.html?id=561′, ‘_blank’, ‘width=760,height=650′); void(0);
I knew it was only a matter of time before Latham threw his two bobs worth into the election. His jealousy of Rudd must be excrutiating.
Do you feel better after your little spray Mark? He will probably be miserable and angry for the rest of his life. I think back 47/45. God bless McLelland!
There was an old polster named Roy,
Whos inflated predictions brought joy,
His samples were small,
But howard will fall,
And their conservative vote we’ll destroy.
Antonio wins.
Caption: “Look, I may not be able to keep the interest rates down, but you Labor voters are a different matter”
gee the pulp mill is fabulously popular….
The real poll comes out tomorrow (ACN) I believe.
I reckon it could well turn out to be the most important poll in the entire election cycle. I’m happy to take 55/45.
Last night Edward StJohn said it will be 55/45. His reputation depends on that being the result.
Apparently a Galaxy of Wentworth has Turnbull behind. That will possibly be released on Sunday, like the Bennelong poll last Sunday (but leaked on Friday night’s Lateline).
Yes Kina and the same people who elected Latham as their leader are still there in the party. Now that should scare a number of you.
Vision on the chick that got knocked out
http://news.ninemsn.com.au/minisite/election_article.aspx?id=280266§ionid=6046§ionname=minisiteelection
As for Latham, here is a personal story why I don’t think he could have never won the last election. I used to live in Latham St, and it was amazing how many people didn’t even know how to spell it, even during the election. How could anyone expect to win if the public doesn’t even know how to spell your last name?
“Quick! Someone put a 3 in front of her”
73 Antonio, ripper! Nearly fell out of my seat.
Col, you sook, we will decide who gets smacked on this blog and the manner in which we smack them.
48 Derek Corbett, nice phantom editorial, but seriously Uncy Rupe doesn’t back losers, so at what stage do you think The Sun God will get behind Kev? Oh the joy of reading Shamaham, Janet and Glug Glug Milne when he changes the script for them!
Thommo what about the fact that only a few weeks back most of your front bench wanted the Dessicated Coconut gone.
“That’ll teach her for trying to keep her parenting payment”
MEK Hussey: 133, c Atapattu b Fernando
Ok, now Latham has lambasted the Labor party.
Where is Fraser to lambast Howard when we need him?
:):) ……….
Obviously designed to appeal to Generation Sex
What were the most recent ACNielsen figures?
And Thommo, will anyone in the fed libs own up to voting for Downer in 93?
Didn’t think so.
The muthaf**ckin’ Rodent just walks away from the lady unconscious. WANKER!!!
$650K pork (or make that chilli) for one company within the seat of Hinkler. http://www.smh.com.au/news/National/Govt-to-spend-650000-on-chilli-company/2007/11/09/1194329486211.html
“84
Thommo Says:
November 9th, 2007 at 3:21 pm
Yes Kina and the same people who elected Latham as their leader are still there in the party. Now that should scare a number of you.”
Just wait and see, if Howard loses this election, the Liberal party factions will break out in a show of self destruction. The ultra-right faction, currently hidden dark corners, which has the party by the throat will either make them unelectable for a decade or be ‘excised’ like a melanoma.
How about some some debate about possible definitions for Possums new addition to the Australian language:
“Shanahanian”
How about:
a) an act of seemingly impossible statistical gymnastics
b) the ability to pick out tiny shreds of supporting evidence while ignoring the overwhelming majority of contrary evidence
Anyone care to add any further definitions to our lexicon?
Yes walking off and not going to her assistance is a very bad sign. this man has no compassiion really does he?
THE GHOST OF MARK LATHAM IS BACK!!!
NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!
Col does have a slight point. The level of personal insults on this blog has risen inversely proportional to the amount of insightful analysis.
I just viewed the film of the woman knocked out at Penrith and Howards response says it all.No attempt to help and then just walks away.Nasty little man.He wouldnt p##s on his mother if she was on fire.He disgusts me.He is degenerate, a liar and traitor to this country.
Col, give yourself a few days and you’ll be barking at the moon like the rest of us.
I’ve even given up smoking so I can shout louder at the television.
Toughen up, son. It’s a rodent hunt.
Matt: The negative politics and lies from the Liberal party have risen proportionally to the upcoming election date.
I’m sure he was confident that his minders could look after her. I really think people are looking too deeply into an unfortunate incident…
We should be relishing more significant issues, like Howard’s apparent state of dementia. He really does seem to have gone mad in the last few days:
* labor will destroy the fertility rate
* labor will destroy 400,000 jobs
* labor will push up inflation
* he’s not apologising for interest rate rises and labor twisted his “sorry” statement
Altogether very very strange.
What I suspect is that once politicians start sprouting statements that just don’t coincide with that general gut instinct for what sounds true, then they very rapidly come unstuck.
Liberal used to go around making fun of Labor for asserting that “the sky would fall in” over workchoices – the goal was to appeal to people’s common sense.
Now it’s their turn to carry on like chicken little and i really don’t think it’s gunna work
“Shanahanian”
One-handed statistical analysis
(cf. One-sided statistical analysis which, whilst also biased, does not involve acts of disrepute whilst watching Howard’s approval rating).
i think its a lack of polls or policy announcements thats to blame. it really has be dull teh past two days. just gaffes and silly photo op’s. no one is going to announce anything on a friday either… might as well do some real work.
Asanque: While I don’t disagree, your post is symptomatic of what I’m talking about.
In breaking news today, the Japanese Govt finally says sorry for all injustices that their soldiers perpetrated in WW2. This sorry statement is not to be taken as a formal apology however.
More polls in tomorrow’s Government Gazette for Shanahan to misinterpret?
The only unbiased, objective political coverage I get is on blogs like this one and ozelection 2007. The MSM and the ABC this election have been woeful, one sided and blatantly cheerleading for the Rodent.
Ashley at 49: You naughty boy!!
I love the smell of pork in the afternoon. It smells like….Victory!! This road runs right through Boothby. Perhaps I was being pessimistic yesterday about Nicole Cornes’ chances.
http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,22730059-5013964,00.html
wouldn’t it be cute if some concerned soul followed up about the lady who got decked in the mob following Rattus, and found she was Brethren all decked out in bogan tracksuit.
that would just top off Loughnan’s campaign
I am sorry and regret all the personal insults on this site which have offended Col 46, but I refuse to apologise for it.
Socrates @ 38 says:
“Thanks, in that case this really means nothing. 56 +/-4.25 = 51.75 to 60.25″
This is a misunderstanding of the whole concept of margin of error. Even though the sample was not particularly large it is MOST LIKELY that the swing it picked up is real.
It is not the case that the ALP 2PP vote is just as likely to be 56 as it is to be 51.75 because the latter figure is within the margin of error. It is 95% likely that the ALP vote is between 51.75 and 60.25 (at the moment). But within that spectrum the middle of it is where it probably is, not the extremities. There is no certainty that there has been a 1.5% swing to the ALP since their last poll, but that is the most likely scenario based on the evidence that we have in front of us.
The video I posted at #85, will not go well for the dirty Rodent. The bastard felt it was more important to keep campaigning than to assist an unconscious women.
Another week ends
Even dodgy Morgan says
Howard is rooted.
One could be pardoned for thinking, as Col (46) has apparently done, that on a dispassionate reading of recent threads, this is a website cluttered with the opinions of those who want to indulge in an exquisite form of ‘feel good’ loathing; that is, because they have found a cathartic forum of (mostly) like minded people where they may vent their spleen about how ‘bad’ this country has become under the stewardship of the present prime minister and how unintelligent, moronic or even ‘troll-like’ are those who do not share their despair.
In fact, this is a truly excellent website, Col, and that is in spite of the tiresome ‘group think’ of the loathers. It contains interesting assessments of opinion polling data not made in the mainstream media, and it is sprinkled with useful and intelligent comment on a range of psephologist’s topics such as the betting markets and electoral behaviour and (albeit occasionally only) leaked internal party polling.
This website has been bookmarked as favourite on my work and home computers for almost twelve months now. It will continue as a favourite long after this Federal election is decided, when I expect many of the very partisan bloggers will have moved on.
And you reckon HOWARD is a meanie???
“While campaigning in the southern suburbs seat of Kingston, Mr Rudd also announced a plan to spend $12.5m on a GP Super clinic at Noarlunga.
Mr Rudd did, however, refuse a request to give his kidney to a patient who was on dialysis.”
John Howards’ last gift to the nation:
An interest-rate rise, high inflation.
The battlers are out,
(They’re not blaming the drought)
To send him off on his ‘vacation’.
Diogenes @ 112
Clearly indicates the ALP still think Boothby is in play in this case. Although I’m not sure what Rudd being back in Kingston says…
Morgan f2f lead of 22%!!!!
The reason you would treat Morgan cautiously unless it has fixed something; also why to be wary of Newspoll; AC Neilsen seemingly much better and the one to believe more [maybe] and, Galaxy last election got it right but has been unreliable this year. AND how much is down to luck of the sampling on the day?
I dont know what figures Galaxy was producing during 2004.
http://www.roymorgan.com/news/polls/2004/3796/
Michelle Levin says F2F lead of 22% on News Radio
Snap blackbird!
No wonder they didn’t post it on their site.
Sounds like an outlier to me… at best
Crackle and Pop!
hahahh Ashley@39 and AlbertRoss@93
how genius! brilliant idea!
I’d like to have a couple of that, willing to pay for them
Rudd is looking for those extra Senate seats.
More ABC Pro Howard bias: Rudd’s campaigning in South Australia today is totally ignored by ABC radio news, but we get a full 5 minutes on the Rodent in Penrith! Any further evidence required the conservative hacks on the ABC board are running the news/current affairs dept?
“Australian shoppers, in generality, have never been better off. Individually, sure, there’s pain. (sotto voce to stricken woman) Don’t get up or say anything till I’ve finished. (facing tv cameras) I mean not everyone is falling over in shopping centres. Goodness gracious. The aggregate impression, as we would all recognise if we just submited ourselves from time to time to a bit of a common sense, practical, reality mugging (looks to minder), is one of hordes of perfectly erect, sure-footed consumers going about their ordinary business in tasteful tracksuits, not harming themselves and (twitches shoulders) certainly not harming their or their country’s highly achievable prospects of standing on it’s own two feet in a dangerous world over-run by union thugs, illegal immigrants, militant secularists, ABC gardners and unAustralian comedians who seek satirical gratification in the trashing of dead, hence defenceless, national heros.”
Rudd campaigned in Boothby yesterday, he’s doing Kingston today, maybe he’s off to Sturt next?
caption:
Man of steel personally intervenes to poll axe terrorist house mum
Howard gives demonstration of the effects of workchoices on Dinkum donut employee
Howard responds to taunts that he is too old to be PM.
There was an old rodent called Johnnie
Whose preferred head of state was a Pommie
If you care to diverge
From his neo-con dirge
You must be a tree-hugging commie!
Peachy that is superb!
TY
Ha and i get no credit, no more poems for you lot
As I have mentioned before – there will be a backlash on Party journalists and their newspapers after the election including partisan radio stations. Even more so if it is them that costs Labor an election.
I doubt very much the average labor supporting Australian will let them escape scot free this time around. Just look how popular ‘Get Up’ has become this year. There is new way to get at these people/stations/papers who hitherto were able to hide behind their owners. They will make themselves irrelevant.
Are the reports above re the morgan f2f correct?
61-39???
It must be summer. the SMH has replaced it’s frontpage election link with the cricket link.
Oh david charles – go and have a good lie down
Partisan group think is what happens occassionally in any congregation of people who share a similiar political perspective – particularly on the eve of an election involving the imminent demise of unquestionably the most divisive, manipulative and corrupt prime minister in Australian History (excuse me if that description is a bit too rich for you)…. Thats life. Get over it – or go somewhere else..
Just what we need, a great outlier. Morgan shouldn’t be taken too seriously. But it does kind of make those “expert commentaries” on how a rates rise would be GOOD for the Coalition looks a bit silly.
nothing on their site yet.
Michael, it’s what Roy Morgan’s CEO Michelle Levine stated on News Radio. She was being interviewed for 56/44 phone poll, and said “The bad news for the government is that we have just collated the data from our face to face poll and the gap to Labor is 22%.”
Why not get backpackers like they did for the AWA vetting………………
Opposition Leader Kevin Rudd has pounced on the Coalition’s proposal to staff local hospital boards with volunteers, saying the Government is “making it up as they go along”.
Earlier this year, federal Health Minister Tony Abbott indicated that hospital board members would be paid a modest annual fee.
But he has since indicated they may not be paid at all.
Mr Rudd has described the plan as shambolic.
“Has anyone actually looked at the size of these hospital budgets?” he said.
“You don’t get people who have quality experience to simply volunteer their services.
“Mr Howard and Mr Abbott are making it up as they go along every step of the way.”
david charles – go and have a good lie down
Partisan group think is what happens occassionally in any congregation of people who share a similiar political perspective – particularly on the eve of an election involving the iminent demise of unquestionably the most divisive, manipulative and corrupt prime minister in Australian History (excuse me if that description is a bit too rich for you)…. Thats life. Get over it – or go somewhere else..
Also, another prediction. Morgan’s spin on how the two polls can predict such different things will rival Howard and Costello’s interest rate spin.
Then again, it was taken just after the interest rates and the sorry thing, so not much of a surprise really. I wonder what the F2F sample size is…hopefully a decent number.
Diogenes, its interesting that Rudd has announced an overpass for the corner of South Rd and Sturt Rd, which is almost just outside my office, as the state labor government announced an underpass would be built at the same place in approx 2010 during the 2006 state election campaign.
John 115,
I understand what you are saying, but don’t fully agree. With the margin for error, it is still too close to previous Morgan polls to tell anything about trend IMO. I do agree that the Morgan phone polls tend to favour the Coalition, so it may not be a bad result.
RGee
A 22% SPP lead OTOH would be music to my ears, even if it is Morgan
Please explain the source? I haven’t heard it.
If it’s 22% Morgan for the afternoon, I’ll sing it again:
“IT ONLY A MORGA’n’ POLL (BUT I LIKE IT)!!!!!!!!!!!”
do.not.take.Morgan.seriously.
Repeat
do.not.take.Morgan.seriously.
Morgan f2f with Antony’s thingamebob.
http://www.abc.net.au/elections/federal/2007/calculator/?swing=national&national=13.7&nsw=0&vic=0&qld=0&wa=0&sa=0&tas=0&act=0&nt=0&retiringfactor=1.5
What they’ve got traffic in Adelaide….??? Nah!
We have socrates, diogenes, but I haven’t heard much from plato or aristotle or democritus (who proposed the atomic theory in a blanced way)
Spiros – I agree. especially when, if it’s a face to face, it is taken over quite a long period and so pre-dates the interest rate rise – hence making it even more unbelievable
Socrates see post #143
61-39 – that narrowing is really taking off.
22% !! More information please- anyone!!
Can we free Dolly Downer to take up the plum diplomatic post at Baghdad embassy?
Apparently the rat is being heckled in Lindsay – by the normal folk, it seems.
Ahh yes, that reminds me. ESJ, Glen and JoM, why do we no longer hear anything at all about the great coalition “TEAM” since the debates, where have they gone boys?
What happened to the TEAM
I think Morgan produced a similar outlier near the end of the 2004 election.
Too small and MOE, nothings changed. No? Stable on the 56-44 to 53-47 range…no? Still better to be 56 than 53….no?
Antony: If you’re reading, that ‘Set swing to Recent Poll’ is truly excellent.
Have I missed something – is there a Morgan F2F out?
Dolly just might run for premier in SA. He vehemently denied this a few weeks ago so it must be true. I’d love to see Media Mike wipe that smug God-I love-having-a-carrot-up-my-arse smile off his mendacious face. And on the philosophers Aristotle was fascist, Plato has been discredited but Democritus was a true legend. No-one will ever match the gadfly Socrates though.
Did it say their or there. it should read they’re. If not then they are the ones learning…how to put a flyer together.
Denis Shanahan is leading with “John Howard has once again shown a deft campaigning hand and the experience of a true professional by boxing Rudd into exactly where he would like to be”.
Yes, its ‘the widening’ all pollsters expected as voters started to tune in, pay attention, and think
“holy crap! who are these losers posing as our government?”
Wha? 61-39?
Ill take that thanks very much.
Nothing on the Morgan site AND the pulp mill results seem to have disappeared as well… 22% lead seems astronomical, even for Morgan.
Matthew Sykes @ 146
The Sturt Road and Port Road overpasses are still on the cards, but are going to be staggered with the current Anzac Highway one so that it doesn’t completely destroy South Road during construction.
Let it end I’m here
I just heard on News Radio from a director at Roy Morgan that the weekly face to face poll held last weekend had Labor leading by 22%, Newspoll was out on Tuesday and it too was taken last weekend so me thinks something is going on at Morgan’s maybe a computer virus?
This has probably been said, but Michelle Levine said it was a large f2f taken last weekend and showed 61-39.
They were checking their figures!
Pulp mill poll is still up:
http://www.roymorgan.com/news/polls/2007/4238/
Let It End @ 157
If the statement were “Labor’s too inexperienced there. Still learning”, and it were positioned beneath a big photograph of the Treasury HQ in Canberra, then maybe this would have passed as grammatically acceptable propaganda.
Nothing a lunchtime read of Lynne Truss’ Eats, Shoots & Leaves couldn’t have avoided.
Catch ‘22%’. The gov is dead, even if it is an anomaly(?) its a BAD trend for the rat, who according to Shamahan has Rudd right where he wants him….
Sad isn’t it.
Could you also add an “I’m Feeling Cocky” button that we can just click whenever one of these sort of polls come out?
And perhaps an “Annihilate” option we can tick which brings up an image of the horseshoe of seats in the house of reps, showing the blaze of red across the parliament with a smattering of blue seats in the corner.
Sean – Morgan F2F reported on News Radio as 61-39.
Greensborough – is that for real? And if so, has Howard therefore decided he likes being trapped in a closed off drainpipe with a pack of hounds at the open end? The only thing I can say apropos of Shammers if F%@#!
RGee 153
Thanks. In a sense who cares if a 22% lead is accurate. Even if you take off the margin of error the best case result from that will still have every coalition staffer in a marginal having ulcers from now till Monday’s Newspoll. Two weeks out they know they’re dead.
Memo to self: put sparkling wine on ice.
@115:
“It is not the case that the ALP 2PP vote is just as likely to be 56 as it is to be 51.75 because the latter figure is within the margin of error. It is 95% likely that the ALP vote is between 51.75 and 60.25 (at the moment).”
Not entirely right. The correct interpretation of a frequentist confidence interval is that in 95% of surveys of the same sample size (n), the sample statistic would fall within this range. You are interpreting this like a Bayesian, but to do that correctly, you need to specify your prior. Assuming gaussian errors, 56 is still the maximum likelihood estimate however, so you are correct that it is more likely than any other value in the probability density function and the MoE is symmetrical.
Love this site and Possum’s – just picked these up a couple of days ago and have been lurking, laughing, and increasingly looking forward to a spectacular night of celebration come 24 Nov.
Matt102
I know my comments are totally emotional and lacking in logical thought but I dont care anymore.Lets call aspade a spade,at least I will.Howard ,his government and everything it stands for is base and degenerate cloacked in the Flag and the church.I use the word traitor in respect to the AWB scandal.How many of the bullets Saddam purchased had the names of our sons and daughters on them.And how many were payed for with money from the bribes payed to Alia.The government was warned or informed on numerous occasions but ignored.The bank balance of our wheat farmers was demmed mothere important than our soldiers lives.. and the lives of other coalition of the willing soldiers.I say for this act of treachery alone the governmet should be turfed out.Shame on them and shame on anyone who votes for them.
What’s the Libs slogan for today “Gone to Shite”?
William are you going to hold an election night part-tay?
Pick a city all the bloggers could attend.
ella re socrate, fawk out on champagne. You can get cattier which is an excellent champagne for around $30. It has the aroma and yeastiness of a great champagne at a bargain price. Definately beats Moet.
BV, you can still get to it from the link you posted but, unless I am blind, there is no link to that page from the Morgan home page. It was originally posted above the phone poll results. Originally posted by accident?
I think a swing like that is on peoples minds 22%, but while not possible on the day I think it is on ppls minds and they are warming to Rudd as Howard becomes more and more irrelevant.
Red Wombat it is we’l have the best health and housing policies ever!
I woild like to apolgise to Col and Matt but in no way am I sorry about the PM John Hunt Being a Coward.
News radio – ‘Hecklers cause trouble for Howards campaign’
Re “Knock Over Old Lady Scumbaggate” could this be the Latham Handshake moment of the campaign? Especially after the Sorrygate?
irrelevant do do doroodoo. (sung to the tune of manamana from the muppet show)
Hmmm mupets Howard-Kermit, Downer-ms piggy, costello fuzzy, gonzo-mark vail?
‘Scumbag’ that term sits well with lying rodent dont it….
I assume the f2f was done on the same weekend as Galaxy and newspoll. Interesting.
Yawn. Another nail in Morgan’s coffin.
So on the same weekend:
Newspoll 53/47
Galaxy 54/46
Morgan 61/39
Even Morgan’s phone poll shows 61/39 to be a joke.
Unfortunate, Morgan has such a long history, its sad to see them destroy their credibility. They are obviously doing something wrong.
I agree with Kina, ACNielsen appears the most reliable.
The ‘handshake’ moment has already come, it’s ’sorry not apologizegate’. That’s the final beginning of the end – coming on the back and excacerbating the interest rate rise like an unwelcome turd in a swimming pool.
“Knock Over Old Lady Scumbaggate”
Christ I nearly fell over laughing after reading that one.
Beware divorce and infertility under the ALP.
My word… to think in 2 weeks, just two weeks, we can refer to Dear Leader in the past tense…
Honestly, just say anything about Howard in the past tense… it feels so amazing.
I suggest a neutral venue for William’s party – Paris perhaps.
Howard to Woman: “Sure, I’m sorry you’re on the ground in pain and crying – I’m very sorry… ”
Howard to Nation: “… and don’t any of youse mistake that for an apology!”
If Shamahams had to ’shanner’ this one he’d point to the ’soft’ ALP vote. I bet he’s glad he only has to spruik the newspoll.
Turns out it was Hyacinth that clocked the lady….she thought it was Pete’s wife.
All your bases will belong to us!
Might have a few vitamin B’s tonight.
Hoo – rah!!
Re “Knock Over Old Lady Scumbaggate”. Its what happens when ordinary people get sucked up into the howard spin vortex. That women got too close. Labor need to call for a Royal Commission.
Morgan is accurate because it includes people who only have mobile phones.
(Yeah I know I’m off to take my pills).
Howard who???????
did Howard breathe on her or something? Poor woman she’s lucky to still be with us…..
for mine, it’s certainly the photo of the campaign… that look on Mr. Howard with his finger wagging! the sprawled prostrate woman, clutching her head… in real pain _and_ absolutely no-one from the government helping! it’s priceless! It’s captures precisely what Howard has done to middle Australia…
Looking at the picture a little closer it could be the member for Goulborn
John of Melbourne Says:
November 9th, 2007 at 4:20 pm
Let it end I’m here
Hi John, tell me though, why have your guys gone so cold on the “TEAM” thingy of late, has that been ditched now?
George Newhouse’s mother responds to Lucy Turnbull:
You might enjoy this, particularly those of you who have received Lucy’s
letter about the man she loves:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xLQaKA6n5qo
Where is the picture of Howard knocking the woman over with his breath?
Well, dipping inot the Morgan toolbox, my theory is that the discrepancy between Morgan phone and F2F (in this case 5%) is an exact measure of the “Howard voting as dirty, embarrassing secret vice” factor.
Id say we’re about 54-46 in reality. AC Nielsen will tell us. Its the only poll worth a pinch of shit, IMHO.
Though again, I would say read the others for trends, not values. Clearly, there’s a small movement to ALP over the last 5 days.
…most humourous photo since that one with Mr. Beazley and the chicko roll in the takeaway… was that 98 or 2001?
The woman who was knocked over was Samantha Maiden
Here is the photo
http://www.abc.net.au/reslib/200711/r198876_758937.jpg
Gerr… photo of fallen woman…
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/11/09/2086754.htm but click on the photo for an enlargement…
There was an old Rodent from Wollstonecraft
Who in his dithering days became awful daft
Cabinet started to worry
He can’t apologise but says “sorry”
And then his government’s numbers were cut in half
How defeated does Tip look on Agenda.
the stupid sod is trying to explain his point to David Speers…who seems confused.
how is Mr and Mrs averaged supposed to understand his message.
they are so confused.
the bastards have been asleep at the wheel ,thinking Crosby_Textor and OUR ad money, would win it all again for them.
slither off into the ethers you miserable Coalition.
WOW, thanks you guys, Yeah I think previous poster was right this could be the handshake moment, partic when you get the overall context of the story, hecklers, ppl refusing toshake his hand etc etc….
scumbaggate is the current handshake moment favourite though it could be neck and neck with the non apologygate which im favouring.
We’ve got to find that moment!
Also according to this pohotographic evidence (CSI if you will) Howards breath has a range of about 3 meters.
John Rocket # 193 LMAO
Let it end # 203. don’t know what’s going on with the team thingy of late… probably JWH is doing a good job on his own.
Let it end what happened to Labors productivity argument where did that go?
Gerr the lady on the floor was a Union official, lol. She fell because the cleaners were on strike and there was no one to clean up the spilt drink on the floor. LMAO
Laughter is the best medicine.
What happened to Lose the Election Please. Maybe he was posted by lib headquarters to another site??
61-39 is quite bad for both sides at this stage of the game. Doesn’t really help the Mt Everest narrative and might let some think they are off the hook and don’t have to vote Labor to get rid of WorkChoices.
I wonder what Kroger’s spin will be on Lateline tonight if he is on.
Kroger: “Look, this interest rate rise hasn’t hurt the government, Labor has only gained 2 points from the poll of 59-41 a couple of months ago and now everyone is discussing the economy which is the government’s strength. I would expect the polls to narrow from here”.
The guy on the right looking at him and the yawning minder in the background are what really make that photo. Hope the lady pulls up ok.
Centaur_007 179
Thanks although I have some excellent quality sparkling reds (which I highly recommend) that taste lovely, are made in Australia, and seem most fitting for the defeat of a government that has trully put the “Con” back into Conservative.
For those interested, IMHO Seppelt in Great Western, Victoria, Yalumba (”Dark” sparkling Shiraz) in SA and a host of makers in Rutherglen make great sparkling red.
I know we must stay disciplined etc. But if there is one thing this campaign has shown to me so far, Kevin Rudd really is ready to be PM. He is smart, disciplined and emotionally mature. Even when some have stumbled he has remained calm and not over reacted. I think people are seeing that.
She dropped to the floor because someone had told her this was the appropriate (formal) manner in which to greet a dictator.
The deliciously named ’scumbaggate’ will only resonate with the same frequency if it is aired on the commercial news. Lateline might be the only news worth its salt, but its on ABC at 10:30, not exactly the height of popular viewing.
HarryH, Confused is right. Howard did so well for so long because he could stay on message and get the rest of the party to do the same but this election is a complete mess. ‘Go for growth’ seems gone because it is economically stupid in the current inflationary climate, yet he and Tip don’t have a coherent 2nd policy line other than it would all be worse under Labor. They can’t explain why that might be though other than it will somehow be the unions’ fault. Also, for all they criticise Labor for not being able to ruduce housing stress, they don’t have anything of their own to address the problem either other than maintain the surplus.
If you compare that to Labor, the message has been solid all along. I don’t think that there will be much more me tooing though (unless it comes from the Libs) because, quite frankly, it would be stupid to agree with anything the Libs say from here on in (for a starter, you wouldn’t even know what you are agreeing with).
Maybe she fainted when Howard told her that she was going on an AWA and that she would earn 94% above those on a collective agreement.
TurningWorm @ 218
My mate, who I don’t think has ever watched Lateline in his life, caught it last time Kroger was on was was like ‘Gee that Kroger guy is a complete idiot’. Made my night LOL
John not sorry yet
John point at woman laid low
Run john run away
At least we know the Penrith casualty wasn’t a member of Get Up!
@221
LOL
People – do not count your chickens. There are 2 weeks to go… It is likely that Labor will win, probably by a narrow margin, but if something dramatic happens between now and then, who knows…
We all know that John Howard has few scruples when it comes to winning elections.
to Howard: I’m SORRY to vote you out this election
to others: I APOLOGISE for voting for Howard in the 2004 election. It’s just that Latham scared the sh*t out of me Should have given my vote to Democrats instead, but then that would still let the scumbag slipping in
John Of Melbourne 214.
The old Lady is obviously a UNION BOSS who wanted to turn the lights off in the whole shopping center. Instead Howard knocked her over and turned her lights off. NO APOLOGY NEEDED.
And his supporters know about wine….
Aus declare at 4/551. Symonds got 53* and Clark 153*.
She was a suicide bomber that Howard disarmed with his death breath.
It’s Morgan – only us and a couple of desperate staffers will take notice.
This Morgan F2F is good for the WTF factor and just adds to the somewhat surreal turn the campaign has taken in the last week or so (the knocked out lady incident included).
Ahh lovely, channel 10 has it in its headlines.
TofK – what’s in the headlines? The morga results? or the lady in the tracksuit being knocked out by jonhnie’s entourage?
The lady fell head over heals for JWH
levine on newsradio now talking about the 61-39 (22% poll)
She’s probably still writhing around in casualty as we speak, popping panadeine forte like smarties. Poor woman. I guess it would have been easier if she’d taken out private cover …
Newsradio just announced F2F poll of 22%. Morgan rep says its after Abbot and everyone talking up interest rates rise.
John,
Probably escaped your attention but seems labors productivity argument is now very much at the heart of the inflation problems Howie is having. Believe Stevens referred to it as capacity constraints didn’t he.
I think Howie is in dire straights trying to run the show himself,. Been reduced to telling everyone workchoices keeps wages down after spending $600 mill of advertising over the last 6 months telling everyone you earn more with workchoices. Is he now agreeing with the Union campaign? Bit confusing don’t you think? What happened to big Joe’s claims workchoices pays 96% more, that went quite pretty quick with release of inflation figures
As for the team, I think they’ve deserted you John, they’ve all gone AWOL on Howie
Even you must admit the Lib campaign is an utter debacle, that’s what happens when you have no plan and just cobble together some pork.
241 Hope they called a lawyer and a doctor for her.
Eastern State news watchers, if the news bulletins do include it – could you tell us whether they also included any of the footage of ppl yelling ’scumbag’ and ‘disgrace’… and if they do, whether those ppl are ‘ferals’ or ‘kath and kimers’
I suspect the more long last pain will be as a result of the pictures of her writhing on a shopping centre floor in a track suit. Poor thing
John Rocket – good question
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,22730432-29277,00.html
John Rocket click onto the link
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,22730432-29277,00.html
The Lady, far better than the poll.
The government’s message on WorkChoices is confusing.
On the one hand, WorkChoices is good because it makes wages higher.
On the other hand, WorkChoices is good because it makes wages lower.
Woman falling over now on Ch 9 news.
Thanks JOM it was much better and funnier the second time.
Spiros – ferals or kath and kims?
Channel 10
No they guts out of the hecklers just showed the woman knocked over
Only a small bit about the fall, no shouting. Portrays it as a non issue, very different to the ABC article. Switches quickly to the carmaking industry.
Then it reports the INFAMOUS HANDSHAKE!!! hahahaha
Anyone else notice on that pulp mill poll that 60% (!) of voters aged 18-24 that had no idea that the pulp mill had been approved.
(Amusingly, even 28% of Greens voters were not aware).
I sincerely hope this doesn’t mean the main reason the ALP is ahead in the polls is because a significant part of their support base (younger voters) are woefully ignorant of what issues they are even voting on.
Looks like people might have put away their baseball bats for H*ward and now they have the Ratsack® out ready for 24 November.
Now he’s knocking over ladies in shopping malls, without even a pretence of remorse. Just as well Janette’s renovated the Wollstonecraft compound for his wheelchair. He’ll need to move out as soon as 25 Nov at this rate.
Be careful those talking about H*ward’s health. Last time I and a few others broached the subject, LTEP and his mob laughed us out of town and tried to shut us down.
Mark my words. H*ward is not just on his last political legs.
174 Ashley
What Antony really needs on his calculator is a ‘4 horsemen of the apocalypse’ button. With graphic visuals you can play on election night as each seat falls. I leave the rest to your imagination.
BTW, I plan to enjoy a nice drop of Howards End from the CFMEU cellars release….
Socrates-best of all will be a Rockford’s Black Shiraz. And what is the Rodent doing to that poor woman? It looks like he’s giving her the last rites.
It’s right up there with Hawke’s “Silly Old Bugger” and Keating’s “Get A Job” for classic campaign moments.
OK, one more caption for that classic picture of Howard and the postrate lady:
Woman collapses in Penrith shopping centre after seeing dead rat.
This Sorry-but-not-Apology sagga is another proof of how deceiving, cunning and hideous Howard is. Remember the Record-Low-Interest-Rate denial? Howard said those words did not come out of this mouth!!?! huhhh?!?
God! I’m speechless! Howard’s tricks with his tongue are beyond my imagination
Morgan face to face may be a more honest representation of how people feel when asked the question of who they will vote for.
As I mentioned before people can be uncomfortable giving their political views over the phone and as many have said it is not until you get talking to friends, work mates and those you meet that you realise the feeling against Howard.
Doesn’t mean Morgan F2F is entirley accurate as it may be skewed by the location, people not at home etc.
But all pollsters have their commercial market besides politcs and they rely on the credibility of their polls to market to businesses. For example a Morgan F2F may be more reliable than a phone poll for which brand of washing detergent, or DVD recorder, or what are important factors in buying a new car is the best as you get a more honest response.
I don’t think any pollster fudges results, they may try and skew them with loaded questions for a client who is trying to push their product as being better but many businesses rely on reliable as possible polling for customer feedback.
is that cellars release made by 100% UNION OFFICIALS!!!
Kirribilli Removals @ 261: LOL – best one so far!
I hope you’re free on Sunday 25 November. You’re going to have your work cut out for you. Just make sure Janette doesn’t put prawn heads in the curtain rods on her way out…
WorkChoices will double you pay; scrapping WorkChoices will lead to a recession; WorkChoices will keep wages under control; the economy is strong; there is an economic tsunami coming; rising interest rates are the result of a good economy; be scared; don’t be scared; Go For Growth; No don’t go for growth; infaltion is due to petrol prices; the high aussie dollars makes petrol cheaper; Sorry; Sorry isn’t an appology;
Howard and Costello have a double position on everything. Do they have a clue?
Arbie Jay – we’d all like to think you’re correct.
I think Peter Brent or Possum or someone has done analysis on the comparative merits of f2f and telephone – and i don’t think it is supportive
Morgan 61-39
on Antony’s calculator that equals 17 seats for the Coalition.
Tabitha’s prediction of 148 seats is starting to look a lil shakey now
but the “narrowing” is still to come i guess.
Ooops, funny typo alert! That should be “prostrate”, although she did fall over after the rate rise, so it was kind of “postrate”! LOL
Wow – Is there anything Workchoices cant do?
Sri Lanka 1/9
Imagine how Shanahan would spin a 61-39 result:
BLOW TO RUDD: LIBERALS RETAIN BRADFIELD
Diogenes 259
Absolutely right – we have some Rockford and its wonderful stuff. Not cheap but celebrating regenticide/rodenticide might merit opening a bottle.
Give you job protection, overtime, reliable hours, public holidays….
No fear John Ryan, we are ready on the 25th, and we’ll be rocking around about 5am, and the Rodent’s corpse will be the first thing to get bagged! Hyacinth will still be bombed out on tranquilisers and will be in no fit shape to cause anyone any trouble…ever,ever again!
Yes that 61-39 result in the calculator looks fun!
http://www.abc.net.au/elections/federal/2007/calculator/?swing=national&national=13.7&nsw=0&vic=0&qld=0&wa=0&sa=0&tas=0&act=0&nt=0&retiringfactor=1.5
That would leave the LNP with just 17 seats, and Phillip Ruddock would hold the most marginal seat for the LNP Coalition!
264 TofK
I think it’s made 100% of union officials, may need to wash it down with some turps.
Anyone who really thinks that Labor will get 60%+ of the vote is nuts.
53% will be more than enough.
54% will be a landslide
55% will be an avalanche.
Anything above that and we are in the realm of science fiction.
Arbie Jay 263
I remember reading an artical at the roymorgan website by Roy Morgan earlier this year and he was under the opinion that the Face 2 Face polling was more reliable and more favourable to the Coalition than the Telephone Poll.
According to Roy this was due to the fact that he believed conservative voters were not open as much to give their opinions over the phone. This was evident earlier in the year which was finding that the Coalition polled consistently better in Face 2 Face polls than Telephone polls. It is now the reverse for some reason, the Coalition has seemed to do better in the Phone polls rather than the Face 2 Face polls.
Therefore, from this we can take nothing at all of value, as the current polling is in direct contradiction to Roy Morgans earlier beliefs.
The best thing to do is look at the poll, have a laugh for a second at the Coalition, and then get on to another subject, cos the morgan poll has lost it venom.
Mike
I’m not saying 61-39 will be the result, just it shows the depth of feeling against this tired old lazy government.
I do think F2F is more reliable for getting an honest opinion but as I said the locations and times can skew the results, as others have noted, eg rural areas may not be polled which downplays the National Party vote, people off at work etc.
272 lol
That Australian article was funny JoM, the woman was taken by centre management to a local GP… but she left cos the GP was too busy to see her!
Also, despite the ’scumbag disgrace’ reports from ABC, according to the GG… everyone still loves Dear Leader…
“Most people seemed genuinely pleased to see the Prime Minister, asking him to pose for photos and smiling and shaking his hand.”
And those who don’t love Dear Leader – prank handshakers everywhere… we’re talking to you now… well, they get spoken to by the police! Good to see the Liberals are still tough on crime! I still haven’t heard any concrete policies from Howard regarding his plans to combat graffiti? Glen, if you’re out there, have you got another link to the Herald-Sun telling us about this plank in the PMs re-election agenda?
The Shanner: ‘Labor languishing in low 60’s’, ‘Howard retains support’, ‘Rudd’s support soft’.
he should just do a generic one for all his stories: ‘I’m a right wing liberal trying to turn sh_t into flowers’
I’ve got some Seppelt Show Sparkling ‘90 saved just for the 24th.
So, if the libs lose Bennelong, Higgins and Wentworth does that count as losing 3 ‘leaders’? The current one, the next one and the one after that? Losing one leader is unfortunate, but 3 is careless (apologies to Oscar)
Howard looks like a real goose just standing there, what a terrible photo. Did he call out ‘Mr Speaker, Mr Speaker’ ? Or simply go for the ‘twitch’ ?
I wonder if this will create another sorry not sorry outcome?
275
Kirribilli Removals
You better take the NSW Police water-cannon to clean the place out.
Tributes to Peter Andren at his funeral today included ‘a man of the people,for the people’. He truly was the best of Australian values personified- values that inspired me to become an Australian citizen.
Howard (to stricken woman): Now there’s a little something to go on with. I mean, I might look like a soft touch, but let me tell you my dear woman, cross me and I’ll smack you down like one of those nasty Arab people in Cronulla. (turning to minder) Give her fifty bucks, tell her who to vote for and, for god’s sake, tell her to keep her powder dry till polling day … I mean, goodness gracious!
Yes the 61-39 poll is probably fantasy. But the fact polls like this even exist two weeks out from an election do speak volumes. Please tell the last time there’s been a poll of this magnitude so close to a federal election? 1975?
This means a 55%+ result is possible.
I did a f2f poll at work. The result was 80-20….bit biased I know and MoE was about 15%.
Poll of 900 by Uni of Adelaide politics dept gives Labor a first preference vote of 50 per cent in SA. For the Senate it’s 34.4 per cent ALP, 28.8 Liberal, 24.2 Xenophon and 7.3 Greens. That translates to two senators for Labor, two for the Libs, one to Nick Xenophon and a toss-up for last between the Greens, Xenophon’s running mate Roger Bryson and the ALP.
Interesting that both Libs and ALP are putting a lot into Kingston.
“Pakistan Opposition Leader Is Placed Under House Arrest
Benazir Bhutto was placed under house arrest Friday, an
official of her party confirmed. The area around her
residence in Islamabad was sealed off by the police.”
John Howard wishes he could do the same.
Im sure turps would be lovely. Its ‘coming back!’…up.
Police Union maybe in trouble in Victoria
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,22730785-2,00.html
Hmmmmm……….do i keep the ‘93 Grange for the 24th or sell it in the garage sale tomorrow?
‘93 wasn’t such a good year – flog it
Dazza
If what you are saying on F2F is right they are in big trouble, personally I thought that non-liberal voters would be more reluctant to give their views to a stranger over the phone.
I linked to articles in an earlier post on the climate of fear that Howard has created for speaking out, including David Marrs article on “Careful he might hear you”, the legal campaigns against whislteblowers and critics of Howard, and charities that lose their funding and status if they criticise the government.
People have more to lose by giving their opinion against Howard to a stranger over the phone than they do supporting him.
I have not seen any evidence of any business or person who suffered because they expressed support for Howard, but there is plenty for those who criticise him.
As for the final result, the average of the Morgan F2F and phone poll is around 57.5%, I don’t see why this cannot happen, it has happened before.
Lib ads are going NUTS on the telly here in W’gong (covering Eden Monaro).
Haven’t seen a labor one yet.
I do a f2f poll most nites. No moe permitted.
61/39 is obvioulsy an outlier and I believe there was a similar Morgan one in 2004 for Labor. It does however serve to put pressure on LNP HQ and the nervous rats therein who might just start eating their young.
The more serious one is the Nielsen – 53.5/46.5 is what Laborites are hoping for as a miniumum. Anything less will make everyone sleep a little less. I think we may in a codependent relationship with AC Nielsen.
I did a f2f poll at work. The result was 52-3, 3 being greens. I work in a union office though
Brett Lee 2/4 off of 4 overs with 3 maidens ….. The Sri Lankans are falling like the Libs at the moment
JoM – Ummm, Mullet sort preselection for the Libs!
sought rather
Spiros 278
+60% is fanciful, but I wouldn’t right off the chance of a high 50s. My job puts me in constant contact with all sorts, rich, poor, farmers, professional workers, miners,employers, aboriginals, in fact you name a demographic, and I would know someone in it. For a year now I ask almost every single person their political thoughts, and I am talking about 1,000s of people and not one person has said they will be voting Coaliton after voting for Labor last time, but I can say that I have spoken to about a thousand people that will be doing the reverse or at least change to the greens and a lesser extent The Dems
This election is gonna see a swing never seen before, no seat under 13% is safe
“I’m gonna sit right down and write myself a letter” Dept.…
Dennis Shanahan’s article this morning about trouble in the car industry has been being spruiked all day by Howard and Costello as showing how allegedly disastrous a Rudd government would be for employment in the motor vehicle industry.
Somewhere in the middle of Shanahan’s article (you can find it here: http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22727906-11949,00.html) the quotation marks segue from quoting the actual submission of the car makers to quoting a write up (more like a beat up) done by the Prime Minister’s own PM&C Dept., saying we’re all doomed if Rudd gets the guernsey.
Only problem is, according to Paul Bongiornoon TEN news, the car industry said no such thing.
Apparently (and I know you may find this hard to believe) PM&C sat down, wrote itself a letter and then gave it to Shanahan to splash all over the front page of The Australian this morning.
The bullsh*t story was actually still there on the front page until about 5:15 this afternoon and was then mysteriously removed… in fact it was removed just after Bongiorno’s piece to camera on the TEN news debunking the whole thing.
Hmmm….
Kina why do you see AC Neilsen as the most reliable?
According to what I have read in papers punters look towards Newspoll.
Howard to Old Lady:
“And I will strike down upon thee with great vengeance and furious anger those who attempt to poison and destroy my legacy.
And you Woman will know I am your Master when I lay my vengeance upon you.”
Car industry report doubts are running on the age website:
http://www.theage.com.au/news/federal-election-2007-news/car-industry-refutes-report/2007/11/09/1194329492589.html
The Australian motor industry’s peak body has categorically denied a report which Coalition heavyweights have used to cast doubts about its future under a Rudd government.
The report, on the front page of a News Ltd. newspaper, stated that the viability of “two, or even three” car makers was in doubt, threatening the jobs of up to
7000 workers.
“These claims and other claims made in the article about the industry’ s representations to Government are wrong,” he said.
“No such letter exists, nor has there been any industry discussion on industrial relations matters as suggested in The Australian’s story,” he said.
http://www.theage.com.au/news/federal-election-2007-news/car-industry-refutes-report/2007/11/09/1194329492589.html
What’s that old argument the pollies use to justify their pay rises? If you pay peanuts you get monkeys.
What will you get if you pay your hospital board members nothing?
RGee are you sure and when?
As I heard him on the radio recently during the Police pay claim he was going off about workchoices
Just got my Kevin07 email, they have a blog entry called ‘Super Spoof Friday’. It has some funny YouTube videos on it.
http://www.kevin07.com.au/myblog/super-spoof-friday-2.html
And if you pay more peanuts you just get “fat monkeys”
John Hunt is a Coward 306
Good post
Bushfire Bill:
It’s still there
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22727906-11949,00.html
I won’t hold my breath for a retraction or apology.
Shanahan is a partisan hack who should be fired.
On this thread
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/11/09/2086436.htm
in reference to the blogs and blogging, Pi says:
09 Nov 2007 2:11:57pm
Dare I say it… the 5th estate?
It would seem so. The blogosphere is coming of age, and is starting to flex its muscle.
Socrates:
http://americanresearchgroup.com/moe.html
98
Kina Says:
Just wait and see, if Howard loses this election, the Liberal party factions will break out in a show of self destruction. The ultra-right faction, currently hidden dark corners, which has the party by the throat will either make them unelectable for a decade or be ‘excised’ like a melanoma.
I also think that is exactly what is going to happen. It is long overdue.
103
Bushfire Bill Says:
Col, give yourself a few days and you’ll be barking at the moon like the rest of us.
I’ve even given up smoking so I can shout louder at the television.
Toughen up, son. It’s a rodent hunt.
Time to unleash the rodent hounds?
Peachy 134, and BV 211
Beautiful. Best yet on this site.
John of Melbourne – Actually, I can go find out. I will get back to you on Monday. My understanding is he is (unbelievably) a member of the liberal party.
Just when I thought Liberal TV ads couldn’t get any worse, I just saw one a few minutes ago on channel 10 in Adelaide. Basically it went along the lines of:
“Mike Rann is soft on crime”
“Imagine what it would be like with wall-to-wall Labor governments”
“David Fawcett is tough on crime”
Say all that in about 10 seconds and you’ll get the idea. Laaaaaame.
Thanks RGee, can I ask you about it in a weeks time as I will be interstate next week? Cheers
Having dealt with hospital boards, the type is person who would go on one for free would be failed politicians, failed health administrators and a few do-gooer busybodies with lots of time on their hands because no-one else will have them.
Sham-I-am runover; PM not sorry, election rival ‘gay’: Just Over the ‘Moon’;
Sorry B Double team jacknifes…
Grow for Goth trainwreck
What a day!
re: Mullett and the Liberals
http://www.abc.net.au/stateline/vic/content/2005/s1420445.htm
JoM – Just did a google search.
http://www.abc.net.au/stateline/vic/content/2005/s1420445.htm
316: I had the same add in Wollongong, but with Gary Narn as the ‘tough on crime’ thing.
Because, you know – it is the FEDERAL governments responsibility for local crime.
Who do you think will handle the local crime clean up, the AFP or Special Operations Command?
@ 306
Old Lady to Howard: Yes, I know. Shocking. I know. But the trouble is your majesty, I can’t trust you anymore (even though I think you’re handsome). I don’t even believe in god. And the worst of it: somewhere on the road from welfare to work, I had my purse stolen! Oh, these are bad times, your majesty, bad times indeed.
“305
John of Melbourne Says:
November 9th, 2007 at 5:37 pm
Kina why do you see AC Neilsen as the most reliable?
According to what I have read in papers punters look towards Newspoll.”
I was just looking at AC Nielsen and Newspoll for 2004. Nielsen had the result fairly well represented three polls before the election. Newspoll never gave any indication of a LNP win – at any stage.
Not the other Tim: There was a similar one here in Melbourne for a local member. The Libs are really loving the mixing up local and state issues in to federal issues.
In all seriousness, I believe the shenanigans of Shanahan represent the tip of an iceberg of deliberate misinformation, downright lies, pro-Liberal spin and pure malice on the part of media organizations in this country. The scores of examples quoted here and in other forums demonstrate the depth of the problem. It is against the interests of people in a democratic country to have the mass media controlled by such a small number of proprietors. Hopefully their time is about up as agents of influence if online collaborative sites like this continue to grow in number. I really urge people not to buy newspapers in particular. Its th eonly language those people understand.
Not the other Tim @ 316
in Melbourne we got the same ad with our own no-name local candidate subbed in as being the only one tough on crime lol
this Lib campaign is becoming unbelievably inept.
JHo to decked woman:
Take that you *@#** and don’t ever call me a desicated rodent!
ALP how to vote cards are up: http://alp.org.au/people/htv.php
Can’t find the libs ones.
Face-to-face Morgan Poll
On the weekend prior to the interest rate rise, primary support for the Coalition was 34% (down 5% from the previous face-to-face Morgan Poll), while support for the ALP was 54.5% (up 5.5%).
With preferences distributed as they were at the 2004 Federal election, the two-party preferred vote was ALP 62% (up 4.5%), L-NP 38% (down 4.5%).
Support for The Greens was 6% (down 1.5%), Family First 2% (up 1%), One Nation 0.5% (unchanged), Australian Democrats 0.5% (down 0.5%), and Other Parties and Independent Candidates 2.5% (up 0.5%).
A majority of electors (58.5%, down 0.5%) thought the ALP would win the next Federal election, while (28.5%, down 0.5%) thought the L-NP would win and 13% (up 1%) couldn’t say.
Fifty per cent (down 6%) thought Australia was heading in the “right direction”, while 30.5% (up 0.5%) thought Australia was heading in the “wrong direction” — 19.5% (up a significant 5.5%) were undecided.
Twenty-three per cent (up 1.5%) of all electors said Australia is “heading in the right direction” yet said they would vote Labor if an election were held today.
318
Diogenes
Absolutely right.
In part, this is just a money saving exercise from Howard. He doesn’t want to pay for full-time professionals to do the job.
From the Kevin07 teams newsletter :
Last Orders
Sadly the time for buying your Kevin07 gear is running out. You have until midnight Thursday 15th November to get your T-shirts, stickers, balloons, badges or car flags.
So if you want to be wearing yours on election day, get your order in now – and remember to tell your mates.
Agree,PJK-cancellation of SMH in progress.
Thanks RGee, Simonr and Kina
I will keep an eye out on ACNeilsen
That exposure by the Auto Industry of PM’s dept fabricating stories to be run by loyal lap dog ShameAHam is evidence of just how corrupt this Govt is. Will be interesting to see how the GG responds to being caught out.
the F2F lead is 24% and that was before the rate rise! weird sh*t.
Morgan off with the fairies
332 Megan cancellation of SMH in progress.
Good to hear. I haven’t bought a Worst Australian for 3 years. Its easy once you have started. Bit like giving up smoking, as Bushfire will tell you in a couple of months….keep up the good work BB.
JoM… it aint right is it?
Another place for a caption competition over the Howard photo
http://blogs.abc.net.au/thepollvault/2007/11/caption-comp-pm.html#comments
Middle man no it’s not!
Rgee: Link?
This “local crime” thing is a joke to us, BUT… what about the other 99.99% of the population who think the Federal government has the constitutional power to control absolutely everything?
Basically these ads are asserting that only a LIBERAL government can fix up every local problem from car hoons, to potholes, to break-and-enters down at the suburban mall.
Yeah, yeah… I know it’s a joke… but what is Labor’s counter?
We don’t want to see Howard at the 2010 election explaining why his promise to clean out local crime in 2007 wasn’t his responsibility (a la interest rates)… we want to see him out the week after next.
I would rather have a rodent-free world than one where the little bastard gets another chance to spin his wat out of trouble in three years’ time.
The All Ords index rose again today, after yesterdays bath. Good news. We don’t want to see a stock market crash playing into Howard’s hands in the next two weeks.
The unemployment figures should have been a negative for him too, if the journos had been doing their jobs. Instead Howard and Costello somehow got away with claiming that a 4.2% to 4.3% RISE in unemployment was a plus for them. Amazing.
Breaking News – Ben Cousins went on Coke Bender in US. Ended up in hospital.
Speaking of the ABC blog, I posted there concerning my epic battle with the OZ on the blatant censorship that almost came to litigation.
This was a victory for all the bloggers.
Asanque @ 430 – It’s the same as the phone poll link, they just added some info.
http://www.roymorgan.com/news/polls/2007/4237/
Sydney 9 News – not one mention of Latham in the headlines – all Ben Cousins
“Shopper KO’d by Howard scrum” in the Advertiser. I thought it said “scum” at first and they’d finally said what we have all been thinking.
Rgee. Yeah it is the same. Just go into the phone results and its been added in on that page.
Hecklers heard on Ch 7’s leading news re Howard’s walkabout.
Sean @ 217. I asked the same query yesterday and subsequently LTEP turned up on another thread.
I’ve heard that union thugs mugged the woman and placed her in Howard’s path. Brilliant tactics.
Seven Sydney (No 1 in Sydney!) is running the knocked-out woman story… Bad H*ward.
We’re two weeks out from a federal election and the bloody ABC has effing cricket on from dawn to dusk, and Nine headlines with Ben Bloody Cousins, a drug-addicted football player from an obscure W.A. football team who enjoys hitting the coke in the off-season.
What is this damn country coming to, that this garbage heads the TV news two weeks out from a federal election?
It’s a joke to everyone not just to us. Don’t panic. All the Libs have left is fear but the public aren’t buying it anymore.
She’s lucky Howard didn’t administer mouth to mouth ressussitation.
F2F was 990 people. Morgan needs to up the number of people they poll, especially in the next 2 weeks. Newspoll, ACN and Galaxy seem to be doing at least 1500 for phone polls
It will be interesting to see how cargate pans out. If this is just a coalition stunt then it’s a high risk exercise. I would guess this means their internal polling shows they are behind in Corangamite and they need to put jobs in the car industry on the agenda even if it means getting busted for lying.
Any other data on how Corangamite is travelling?
Not sure if anyone has posted the scumbaggate video. Not a good look for Howard.
http://news.ninemsn.com.au/minisite/election_article.aspx?id=280266§ionid=6046§ionname=minisiteelection
Rgee: Thanks
They didn’t change the headline.
Just snuck it in.
Hey BB (353), the Libs won’t be enjoying the lack of political coverage either. They are a long way behind and there’s no way they can catch up if they’re not in the news.
They’ve only got 15 more days to try and change a lot of people’s minds, and every day devoted to Ben Cousins is another day lost for the Libs.
You can be sure that the Saturday papers will be all about Cousins and politics will take a back seat.
Both parties will try and grab headlines on Sunday though.
My prediction: If Sri Lankans win the test in Brisbane, Howard will win the election.
A suggested caption for the photo of Howard standing over the fallen woman in post (209)
I told you I’d smack you in the mouth if you mentioned interest rates again.
Are we going to have any polls tomorrow? AC Nielsen? Galaxy marginal? If so, Lateline will be interesting.
Settle BB; @ 6.45pm on the 24th you may have one & one only as Mr Green says the rat trap has snapped. Think of Ms Maiden as you drawback…or whatever.
Howard has said he is NOT Sorry for knocking over the old bag.
Afterall, she put herself in the way… and internation factors and the drought were probably the real causes anyways!
Possum is suggesting they have info that face to face morgan has come in at 61-39!!!
Libs would want about an 8% margin of error for that to be less than suicidal news,
according to ratfy on oz elections its not 61/39. its 62/38. now this would be a bit of a win i think.
Roy Morgan has the f2f poll at 62-38.
Good work, KEfPM @ 361.
It has started pretty badly for the Sri Lankans, and I think that is an apt metaphor.
.
.
.
My Prediction: If Phar Lap wins another horse race Howard will win the election.
WFK
“F2F was 990 people. Morgan needs to up the number of people they poll, especially in the next 2 weeks. Newspoll, ACN and Galaxy seem to be doing at least 1500 for phone polls”
Still if the starting point is 61%
take off the MOE – 57%
take of the supposed “Morgan bias” 55%
still happy with that
MOrgan has no such poll on its site and the firgures do not sound realistis, so i will rely on the credible comentary of Mr Baggins
The footage on tonight’s commercial news bulletin (channel 7 I think) summed it up well.
Rudd at a mall getting mobbed by teenage girls.
Howard at a mall standing dumbfounded over the fallen lady.
Before I get accused of the H word, I want to state I believe this poll is an extreme outlier. Anyway, given that and the result of 62/38 we end up with: 134/14/2 (ALP/LNP/IND). 14 people isn’t enough for a game of rugby union. Perhaps Rudd could select the PM XI for cricket out of the 14 people from the opposition.
I don’t believe it. I still think it will be very close, and I still hold my 78 to the ALP.
Agreed Will, these polls do not shift my own prediction of 82-66-2. And BBDave, the f2f is under the same heading as 56-44 phone poll at morgan.
Big Blind Dave: The info about the F2F has been added to the phone poll. Just reread the phone poll page (do a refresh if you need to).
Yes, but the cpi numbers were out (so rate rise was “in the cards” and it also reflected Abbots day from hell too
Howard is actually singing this classic
http://au.youtube.com/watch?v=ffynuKji3RY
Isn’t it about the time Glen usually clocks in from Lib HQ?
whens the next Nielson poll????
BBD @ 372…The morgan site does carry these results from about 1000 voters, but is making more out of the much smaller phone survey. Morgan are putting their usual inflection on things, more or less saying their own results are not to be trusted because they show the Liberals so far behind.
Howard and the libs are reaching desperation point, we got the ad saying that NSW government is soft on crime as others have noted it is running in other states too.
The libs have tried this before when they had no policies and no idea, they ran similar about 12 -15 years ago in state election saying labor was soft on drugs, they ended up getting walloped.
Howard has to be getting his campaign advice from the Exclusive brethren to run this tactic, it is a seven plagues scare campgin straight from the Exclusive Brethren bible.
Vote labor and fertility rates will drop, divorces will increase, sodomy will be rampant, drugs will be freely available, union bosses will return, interest rates will soar and businesses will close.
We have even had Danny, from “Catch the Fire” say God appeared to him in a dream saying only the liberals can save Australia.
This sort of campaign may look good to the Exclusive Brethren and the extreme religous right but it is more like one that the mullahs would run in Afghanistan or Pakistan.
I like reading Glens stuff- otherwise we sound like some sort of mutual apreciation society- I am pretty sure Glen is the screen name for the Andrew Landau bloke anyway- rant rant rant- you know deep down i am right!
374
It’s an outlier. A primary of 54.5% is just too good to be true. I think you’re wrong on the 78 seats, though. I said 99 a few weeks back, but I think realistically it will be closer to 90.
Re 346,
Grog Says:
They had it as the lead story in their political news, but after Cousins, they covered a couple of NSW/Sydney specific stories before they went to politics. When they did cover it though, they showed him watching and walking away, he didn’t turn back at all. They also showed with video and audio the hecklers as well, so we got it not first story, but we got the whole show ……
If you want an idea on the lib’s fear campaign strategy, have a look at this:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KTs5CfOLMt4
There was a young fellow called Dolly
Who pretended that he was a polly
He said Mr Rudd
Was a show-offish dud
Now who’s going to look a right wally?
Apologies for comment moderation delays.
Does this mean you are sorry?
Scotty: I’m being conservative with my 78 to the ALP. I took the ALP 18 seat gain in 98 and used it for this election. In 98 the ALP didn’t win, but 18 seats would give them a win this time. I would love a landslide win, but I’m trying to keep my feet on the ground at the moment.
Where is the poll with ALP on 61 TPP?
62/38 it is!
374
Will From Kooyong Says:
November 9th, 2007 at 6:27 pm
Before I get accused of the H word, I want to state I believe this poll is an extreme outlier. Anyway, given that and the result of 62/38 we end up with: 134/14/2 (ALP/LNP/IND).
….
This poll was taken over the weekend when Howard was trying to take some skin off Garrett: he was at his infuriating worst, mouthing the kind iof nonsense that has so alienated people like me – people who really want some serious attempt to deal the issues of the day and are sick to the eyeballs with smart-arse gesturing by the govt.
I for one am not even slightly surprised by this f2f result. It gives the Liberals exactly the message they need. If anything, the showing by Howard this week has been even worse than his fatuous efforts of the weekend. Does he really think the electorate are so stupid? He is campaigning on naked deception: When is a promise not a promise? When is sorry not sorry? When will he stop treating us like fools! If he continues in this vein, he really will lose 60:40 and the whole country will rejoice.
Re 353,
Bushfire Bill Says:
Agreed on Cousins, particularly here in Sydney. I mean he is from WA already …… About cricket though, 9 is showing the cricket and when tests are on, cricket will be on from first ball to last ball. Fortunately for those who aren’t into the cricket, this First test will be done with at LATEST, Monday dinner time east coast, maybe earlier. Second Test is 16th – 20th in Hobart, those dates are inclusive. There will NOT be any cricket to interfere with the election itself.
Howard will soon suffer the fate of Phar Lap: stuffed and mounted in the museum for useless old nags.
Margin of error on face to face is about 3% to 3.5% and i agree there is a face to face bias toward alp, usually 2% or as much as 3%.
So if we say best case scenario for Libs, its abot 56/44.
That matches the phone poll, but that had a bigger margin of error which could go either way and was done after the rate hike.
I’d say 58/42 sounds a little far fetched but not impossible.
It would be safe to say the narrowing is now an optical illusion caused by standing too close to the white baord at best.
Ben Cousins and Tony Abbott: nominees for Tool Of The Year Award.
399 showson
LOL
Phar Lap? no – thats too good. How about dog food?
Find the Morgan F2F hard to take seriously, the phone sample is only 500 odd. Still, the rates rise was well flagged and Possum’s analysis of the relationship between the Labor vote and cash rate signals that there is a relationship, but the time relationship on the effect is unclear, usually a lag. What also may be having an effect is the increasingly shambolic campaign from the Libs. and the behaviour of the prominent Libs. when they stick their heads up, witness Abbott last week.
Listening to News Radio on way home, as cricket on ABC rather than PM. Did I hear or did I just imagine that Denis Shanahan is now making news rather than reporting news? Did I hear Denis being interviewed about the origins of the ‘letter’ about the motor industry? I am sure I heard Denis ’stands by his story’. News Radio started the segmnet with quite a splash.
404
Julie Says:
November 9th, 2007 at 6:40 pm … There will NOT be any cricket to interfere with the election itself…
…..
The networks have a good eye for rating the newsworthy. I venture to say that lousy polls and foul-ups by Howard and company are no longer news. The campaign has been rolling along for many months towards its inevitable conclusion. Most people are jaded by the whole thing and probably welcome the respite offered even by something as tedious as cricket.
Reported on Oz Elections Forum (May is the sitting Lib in McPherson):
I will give you a quite street market tip. The Gold Coast Bulletin will report Tomorrow that the Lib Margaret May is well ahead in a poll conducted by them.
In fact the smart money knows that this is a stuff up by the Bulletin and they have admitted it in private. Margaret May is in big, big, trouble and she has a handy 13.9% advantage.
So funny! Best timing ever Roy – crank out another one of these next time Howard says he’s “sorryunsorry” or knocks out a shopper and runs away.
This is turning into the best collection of comedy gold I’ve ever lived through in my life. Something like a watching a slow motion car crash – between a clown mobile and a truck filled with plastic dog turds!
Is the ALP soft on Crime ad the dumbest in history???
I know it’s a big call.
But they just come up with that slogan, followed by the LIberals are tough on crime. No facts, no examples, just slogan.
When I saw it, I thought wasn;t the NSW earlier on in the year?
I love this Liberal Party. You almost wonder if they’ve been laying some money on the ALP winning by a big margin.
413
Julie Says:
November 9th, 2007 at 6:53 pm
Reported on Oz Elections Forum (May is the sitting Lib in McPherson):
…Margaret May is in big, big, trouble and she has a handy 13.9% advantage.
…
MacPherson would be one seat the Libs would never anticipate having to fight for. Great news!
as someone noted before
every seat is in play
scare tactics are only upsetting the rusted ons
what happened at hockeys today-nothing on the wires
The Keegan @ 88
Watch the tabloids. The OZ is difficult because it would be a major backdown. It has to come down easy, hedge the bets. The Rupert tabloids don’t have that cred problem. They go with the wind. The OZ has been the bastion of right-wing nutterism. In the history of newspapers in this country, The Australian’s recent performance must consign it to the tip. Along with its editor. I do feel a bit of sympathy for poor old Carol Overies, however. Did she actually write the AWB stuff?
Hello Glen,
I know Libs and Labs are somewhat tribal but a touch of humility and humanity goes a long way. You are somewhat love-struck by Uncle Howie,however….he has feet of clay,old frog. Find it a bit scary, just as people get all tizzy over the pope and the queen.
Here,here,Michael….I’ve written 2 posts as he is the one person I was going to pace the pavements for in his attempt at a seat in the senate.
Such a thoroughly decent bloke.
I have just had a chance to catch up with how Bongiorno at 10 and others have exposed Dennis Shanahan for the shonk we all knew him to be.
Congratulations BushfireBill for following this up
But when you read in the story this morning paragraphs such as:
“The PM&C submission says it is “widely recognised that Australian car manufacturers are facing serious pressure, raising real questions about the long-term viability of at least two, and possibly three, of the companies”.
“In essence, the question that the industry is raising is why would a Toyota, Ford or a General Motors in Tokyo or Detroit respectively want to invest millions in upgrading an Australian operation when they are facing higher labour costs, greater union militancy and the threat of more strike action when they can put their money into low-cost and highly efficient Chinese operations?”
…you have to ask yourself, was the PM & C submission written by Peter Hendy or by a Liberal party stooge placed in the department to generate such rubbish, which frankly reads like something from an undergraduate Liberal student doing business studies at Bond Uni…
With any little luck this story will “bell the cat” on the woeful coverage from our erstwhile national newspaper of record…
I hope someone puts in a complaint to the Press Council
And someone should also try and FOI the letter and its support material (that is, unless there’s a conclusive certificate on it already)
And if the journos of the MSM had any balls they would be starting to direct questions to both the Treasurer, the Finance Minister, the Minister for Industry etc to see if they were made aware of this correspondence
And directing questions to Shanahan himself…
Come on fearless members of the 4th estate…..your credibility demands it….
And BTW, frankly if you were a global manufacturing company would you be happy having your “brand” associated with “Team Howard”? and their ideological anti-union obsessions?
I think not. I suspect that not even Ratsak wants the association….
I really hope the media ask some hard questions of itself about this story, which – after all – led the front page of our national broadsheet and was clearly designed to set the agenda for the day and dovetails perfectly into the rhetoric and verbiage of the Coalition Government….
Is Dennis Shanahan for real?
I guess Paul Kelly is just happy he wasn’t lumbered or instructed to write this rubbish…
I think Dennis Shanahan has finally been caught red-handed. The evidence is clear. This story is a fabrication. In fact, the ABC PM program did seek a comment from him, and the explanation was entirely convoluted and unconvincing – something along the lines that in fact these had been verbal comments made by reps of the various car companies. This of course in now way squares with the story as published.
Someone was talking earlier about a bloke in a shopping centre today making a goose out of rodent by putting his hand out and then pulling it away as rat face tried to shake. Apparently the coppers then gave the prankster a ‘talking’ to.
Tonight on ABC News Sydney showed the clip of the fake handshake without pointing out what actually went on.
Looked to me as if the prankster got rodent a couple of times – hand out, then as rodent put his out the bloke laughed and pulled his hand away and touched his hair, twice, laughing in rodents face each time.
No doubt the clip will get air time on Insiders etc.
Glen,
A lot of these places don’t have embassies,etc. I too had parents who would have done anything to get out of war-torn Europe,especially during years of occupation. It is one thing to invade another country,but it is another to have your country occupied,with soldiers helping themselves to your property,wife,daughters…
Just imagine if this country was invaded and occupied for years and you had young children.
Glen, I have a few questions to ask you
You stated the other night that you served in Government.
Would you kindly enlighten me as to how you served, was it with the libs or nats.
Was it state or federal government (I presume State)
Did you serve on the front bench, or were you a back-bencher?
What, if any, was your portfolio if you served as a frontbencher.
On what platform did you seek election?
How long did you serve the people, and did you carry through with your promises that you would have made to the people. How successful were you in implementing policy?
Were you defeated at further elections, or did you retire from govt?
Thanks, Glen.
418 Derek, fair call, and even if the GG did a 180 I suspect I’d actually find it a bit icky… I mean could I see myself agreeing with Glug Glug Milne on anything? I think not…
Keegan
It would be super icky and sticky, not to mention untenable. Therefore, hard to do but, in this atmosphere, necessary. There is always a form of words – for everything. A newspaper has to retain some dignity.
Earlier on I e-mailed my local Liberal candidate Bob Day about his apprentice wages thing. Here is the answer I got.
I believe apprentice wages (make that ALL wages) should be based on
performance. I have long argued that
if an apprentice can perform the work of a tradesman (and I have met
many who can) they should be paid
accordingly. Bricklayers, for example, get paid per 1,000 bricks laid. I
know some 2nd year apprentices
who can out-lay a tradesman with 20 years experience!
Like it or not, people can only be paid based on the value of work done.
If you wanted a pipe fixed at your
house or some pavers laid or a new power point fitted and the value of
the work is say $100, how can the
tradesman you call in pay someone else $120 to do it? Some people are
slower than others, some are faster. That’s
life, and we all have to live with that. The fast ones end up earning
more than the slow ones.
As for “$5 an hour, be happy you’ve got a job”, every apprentice after a
few short years ends up being a
tradesman and is then on between $1,000 – $2,000 a week for the rest of
their life!
But apart from that, why is it OK for student teachers, student social
workers, student nurses and just
about every other area of university or TAFE or hairdressing students
etc to get $5 an hour? Why is that
not patronising?
When you spend your money Curtis, you decide whether it’s worth buying
for that price. It’s your money.
So who should decide how much people should be paid?
BTW if anybody is interested a couple of my relatives went to a recent function with Downer as speaker. It was a fundraiser for Steve Ciobo in Moncrieff. When speaking about what the internal Liberal polls are showing Downer said he expected the Liberals would loose a couple of seats and that is all. This blow me away. Firstly, whether the internal polls were showing this or not you would expect the normal line to be, ‘it is close and we need all the help we can get’. Secondly if it were showing the same as the public polls then why go out and make yourself look bad. There is something strange going on.