Curiously, all we have from Morgan so far is a small-sample telephone poll conducted over the past two nights showing Labor’s lead at 56-44, about half way between last week’s face-to-face and the previous phone poll a fortnight ago. The press release continues to assure us that “the ‘face-to-face’ Morgan Poll is the only Australian public opinion poll conducted every week”. So where is it?
UPDATE: Morgan have just added a new poll from the same sample covering attitudes to the Tamar Valley pulp mill, so maybe they’re not done for the day.
429 Comments
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the dog ate it?
I was wondering the same thing, although i feel the phone polling matches other polls more closely.
Another narrowing?
Yes which is weird because the F2F usually has a much bigger sample size.
I mean 552 people is a bit ordinary 2 weeks out from an election
Posted this on previous thread, but check out this great ABC article re the blogateriat:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/11/09/2086436.htm
William, Poss, Simon all get a run and it bags the tripe out of the Oz.
Gold.
Has anyone seen anything on the TV reports with pictures from the GetUp people posting all the PostIt notes at Hockey’s office at 12:30? I have 9 and the cricket on so am not getting Sky’s News today (likely the first place it will show)
When you think about it, the Morgan poll is showing a 3 per cent movement, which is probably about what you’d expect the impact of the interest rate rise to be… perhaps???
a bit on the small side of things, but I like the numbers. They will probably release the f2f later in the arvo, as happened a couple of weeks ago.
A Labor scare campaign would be very easy to make right now. Nukes – where abouts? Here? Or here? Or maybe even here? Nobody is safe from John Howard’s plan for nuclear reactors.
Yes, methinks the nukes will go off shortly. Hope youve built your anderson shelter.
Great work Burgey, a very good read.
And they should do another one about leadership uncertainty.
They shouldn’t say “A vote for Howard is a vote for Costello”, they should say “A vote for Howard could be a vote for Costello, Abbott, Downer, Nelson, Turnbull – which one? Nobody knows.”
Showson:
A vote for Howard is a vote for Howard is scary enough
SHowsOn – yes, as mumble has said that is the scarier proposition – uncertainty. That way Rudd can say that he offers a sure captaincy, while the liberals will be in disarray
8 Talking of Morgan face to face polling in Nuclear power station territory. Morgan was at Deception Bay doing face to face interviews last week end. I’m sure people around Brough’s electorate will be very keen to see the face to face poll.
Well, another slow news day.
Both parties are surely going to try and grab the headlines this weekend, leading into the penultimate week of campaigning.
So will there be some policy released this afternoon?
Or will they both be aiming for the Sunday papers and Sunday evening news. I would guess so.
Anybody care to suggest what there next big policies might be? Maybe more on education from the ALP? They still haven’t put out their full higher education policy have they?
Who has any news that they can update us with on Matt Price? I recall that at least one PB had a channel of information …….
What was Howards news conference that was mentioned on the other thread about?
Hussey gets his ton.
Why don’t possum and william organise their own poll, pick out the people here with a bit of balance, randomly allocate 20 phone numbers etc, could be more interesting than wiating for the next biased newspoll.
17 The news conference was about the world not ending just because the Howard regime ends.
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/news/national/climate-change-not-the-end-of-the-world-pm/2007/11/09/1194329464777.html
Can anyone explain the significance of the two different TPP figures that Morgan gives? i.e. T?he one that allocates preference according to 2004 election flow and the one that allocates according to the voters stated intention. I don’t think there statistically significant so why publish them ? They only confuse things and give an opportunity for spin doctors to read ion things that are not there.
Can anyone explain the significance of the two different TPP figures that Morgan gives? i.e. The one that allocates preference according to 2004 election flow and the one that allocates according to the voters stated intention. I don’t think there statistically significant so why publish them ? They only confuse things and give an opportunity for spin doctors to read ion things that are not there.
I also tend to think Morgan’s phone polling is better. Less stratospheric numbers. So im not that interested in the f2f.
Again, the only real point to Morgan is comparing it to the last Morgan. Its better on trends than absolute numbers.
Clarence the Clocker, bingo! You’ve won the door-prize.
A radiation leak cover up.
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/news/national/investigation-into-defence-radiation-leak/2007/11/09/1194329453374.html
Ugh that’s a horrible picture of the dessicated rodent on that brisbane times link.
Morgan have also released data re pulp mill:
http://www.roymorgan.com/news/polls/2007/4238/
“Gunns’ Pulp Mill – Majority Of Electors Want Federal Government Inquiry & Only 24% Approve Of The Pulp Mill”
Can anyone give me the URL of that sample-size/error calculator? With only 500 responses that must have an error of worse than 2%, making it not really able to discern any trends relative to other recent polls.
Socrates
MOE = 100/sq root of sample size
eg for Morgan 100/ 23.49 = 4.25
27 You thought that was bad Check out the bumbler who refuses to resign.
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/news/queensland/foreign-doctors-lash-out-at-andrews/2007/11/09/1194329470500.html
Ah, steve, that reminds me, I need to watch some episodes of Get Smart I have on tape later today…
“the old sim card in the back of a burning car trick”
this is starting to remind me more and more of the dying days of the McMahon government, although if I recall correctly, McMahon lacked the mendacity of the marsupial known as the rodent.
steve: once a climate skeptic, always a climate skeptic
once a lying scumbag, always a lying scumbag
That’s howard for you
That comment on Climate Change by Howard just gives Labor more ammo to throw at him.
Low Labour Primary (44). What’s with that? Seems strange that the interest rates would swing people’s primaries across to greens, Dems and the wacko’s.
It’s all in the right direction, sod the size of the sample!
On another bit of news in this very dull day, here’s Howard trying to claim that Latham’s comments reinforce his message that Labor have another radical agenda:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/11/09/2086407.htm
So how does Howard ‘pounce’ on Latham’s comments when he’s actually saying the complete opposite?
Where are the real journalists? This stuff is such inane drivel a fifth grader could see through it.
Spot the false statement:
Latham:”Behind the scenes, they are reassuring each other that once Howard has gone a radical reform program can begin. I think the reverse is true. I expect a Labor administration to be even more timid, more conservative.”
Howard:”Peter Garrett had said we’d change it all when we get in, and Mark Latham says that we all expect, we all hope, that it will be a lot more, he uses the word ‘progressive’, I use the word ‘radical’, a lot more radical if the Labor Party gets in.”
Talk about the spin cycle! Howard is a washing machine gone mad! You can’t use Latham’s complaint, and it is a complaint, that Rudd will be a conservative and spin this to mean that Garrett was accurately saying they have a radical agenda up their proverbial sleeve!
Howard is drowning and clutching at any piece of sh!t that floats by; even Latham!
BenC
Thanks, in that case this really means nothing. 56 +/-4.25 = 51.75 to 60.25
Oh dear, this will conjure up some horrible imagery:
Ewwww!
http://news.ninemsn.com.au/article.aspx?id=319506
Socrates at 38:
The ‘margin of error’ measure is really only of use when comparing a number of consecutive data points.
It would be extremely difficult to draw a useful conclusion from any one poll in isolation (except the one in 15 days time, which has an adequate sample size to be significant).
yeah thats a terrible thing for Howard to ge saying. Only one issue. Rudd can just list the others now… health, education spending, broadband, water, climate change, infrastructure etc etc… and then ask “Does Mr Howard think there is nothing wrong with any of this?”
that can be dismantled in so many ways…
Yes, KR (37).
Howard reminds me of the cockroaches in my kitchen. I kill them by pouring hot water on them (less messy, try it!). They go ballistic and thrash about wildly before expiring in a heap. Rather like the final scene in Terminator where the cyborg is flailing about in the vat of molten metal. (BTW, cockies die very quickly in hot water, unlike Howard).
I want my nukes and I want them now. Where has Howard hidden them?
http://blogs.brisbanetimes.com.au/bluntinstrument/archives/2007/11/wheres_the_nuke.html
Steve #26
Please don’t take the MSM as authoritative, the article reeks of sensationalism and may well be the product of ignorance.
Beryllium is a ‘light metal’ with many applications, including electronic and radar systems. Most electronic gadgets have small amounts of beryllium-copper alloy in them. It is expensive, so it more likely to be found in high quality military equipment than Chinese DVD players.
It is NOT radioactive, but is be used as a neutron reflector and/or moderator in things that go bang.
There is real concern about beryllium is long term contact and inhalation of beryllium dust or fumes.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beryllium
Let me see:
‘Sorry is not an apology’
‘Climate change is not the end of the world. Economic managament is much more important’
‘Latham comments reveal ALP’s secret desire’
It is a slow news day, but you must admit that Howard has seriously lost the plot. This stuff is nuts.
As a new visitor to this site I can only assume it is for Labor friendly types consumed with hatred for anyone who does not share their point of view, namely the hated Howard. Name calling is a sure sign of intolerance, many of us
disagree with a lot of politicians policies, but don’t attack the person. It goes
without saying I won’t be interested in again visiting this site, intelligent comment can be found elsewhere. Once Rudd is in power, who will be the target
of these anonymous haters?, probably those people brave enough to criticise
Rudd, Mark Latham is right, a society hiding from itself.
Thank You
On another topic, how good a start to the summer is the test at the Gabba? Three centurions in the first innings of the first test? You beauty!
OK. This is me putting my head on the block.
OZ editorial: “In the final analysis, after due consideration and with a wink to the future and going forward, but with some reluctance, The Australian finds itself in a dilemma. Er. Cough. A vote for that Rudd thingy would not be a total disaster. We will survive! It’s just that Mr Howard has been so good and the question to be asked is: Is it fair to impose another term on this wonderful leader? He does look tired. Maybe we should give the young buck a go. We are not totally convinced he has it in him, but he has shown a disturbing tendency to lead the pack. Therefore, er, well, erm, he probably won’t do any harm … and he has a few ideas and such so, yeah, ok …”
I am prepared for flak.
Morgan reported on News Radio, BTW
col:
http://www.amishrakefight.org/gfy/
347 Andos, Clarke still on 97, hope you haven’t jinxed him!
Yes, thanks Col. Anything constructive to add?
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