That Roy Morgan release discussed in the previous post has now been supplemented with data from last weekend’s face-to-face poll, and it shows a hard-to-credit blowout in the Labor lead to a “record” 62-38, from 57.5-42.5 the previous week. The Coalition’s primary vote is down from 39 per cent to 34 per cent, while Labor’s is up from 49 per cent to 54.5 per cent. The sample size was 990 compared with 552 from the phone poll.
Reflections on the Miracle of Democracy at Work in the Greatest Nation on Earth
669 Comments
Bull butter.
Outlier, but what an outlier!
#1 Glen
I fully concur
told ya. sorry sounding like a kindy kd.
even its a outliner sounds good.
I agree
After 10 consecutive interest rate rises, Howard admitting he can’t control inflation, and households increasingly stressed over rising food bills and petrol bills and facing reduced wages from Work Choices I find it hard to credit that 38% of Australians could vote for this lazy inept incompentant government.
Glen you are most probably correct. But you never know.!
Was conducted at the same time as Galaxy and Newspoll which gave 54-46 and 53-47 respectively.
Glen!! God, that’s a relief!
Naaaaaaah.
Yeah we can dream. It’s not as if dessicated coconut dosen’t deserve it. Still wouldn’t apologise if such a result materialised.
Gives lots of room for “huge comeback” headlines in the final week or so, of course. If it was Newspoll or Galaxy I ‘d probably suspect this sort of game more, though. Morgan usually over-rate Labor a bit anyway. If you take this into account it pretty much fits “the vibe”.
Let’s face it. Howard et al are deeply charred toast. Who will we get? Abbott, Downer, Nelson or Bishop as the next Opposition leader?
Cheers
Rod
Shows the narowing theory is out the window and may add to the bandwagon vote.
Although this is difficult to believe now, I would not be suprised to see this or something like it on election night as the “mood for change” kicks in BIG TIME.
Of course it’s rubbish.
But it does mean that 55:45 is likely to be right number.
aww come n glen . ill agree this is probably a tad too high but you never know this election could end up being the mother of all hidings. any way ill shout you a beer anytime you want because aleast you have stuck to your ideals and had a sense of humor sometimes. to use your signoff . lol.
Does it get better than this (and I’m not talking about this sh@#e poll)? Howard’s day starts with sorrygate; gets going with Latham is a tool-gate (which he somewhat idiotically bought into late in the day), continues further with scumbag-gate; goes a bit more down the pipe with heckle-gate; and then any chance he may have to dispel aforementioned cr*p disapears with Ben Cousins-gate, and Police Association-gate in vic.
Oh yeah, and then morgan gives him a double whammy. Although he (RM) may reflect on the sidom of putting out two polls on the same day which aren’t exaclty lined up …
Where did they do this face to face poll?
Let me posit a guess as to why they got such unreliable results.
Morgan obviously conducted this poll in the following seats: Wills, Hunter, Gorton, Scullin, Batman, Hotham, Blaxland, Newcastle, Werriwa, Chifley, Grayndler, Cunningham, Fremantle, Port Adelaide, Canberra, and Fraser.
‘Serenity Now, Insanity Later’!
oh snap
Agree with the comments above that this is an outlier.
If these sorts of numbers were showing up in parties’ private polling, we’d be seeing much bigger shifts in the betting on marginals.
Last time I checked Leichhardt - which would easily fall to Labor if this poll was to be believed - Labor was still well behind in the betting at 2.05.
Until we see Labor candidates firm in the marginal seats these sorts of numbers can’t be taken seriously.
Given that this poll was conducted before the interest rate rise, the result is clearly misleading: 78-22 is much closer to reality.
Has anybody been tracking the bookies lately. It appears the coalition are the ones who are firming. ALP 1.39 / LIB 3.15. Centrebet & IAS.
Ok, so this is too high, just as 53 is too low. Polling is not an exact science. But the average of all this week’s polls is around 55, which is where the polls have been since August. This all just more evidence that the voters have made up their minds and won’t budge much in the next two weeks.
Footrot, and to think when I got out of bed this morning I thought I was going to have a bastard of a day!
Glen, I will happily agree woith you that this poll is rubbish. But you must concede that whoever is running your man’s campaign should be sent to the eastern front. Your blokes can’t put a foot right! All Ruddie has to do is keep breathing …
LOLzers, it’s not really credible, but it IS funny!
62-38 is definitely an outlier -even by Morgan FTF poll standards (it’s Labor’s best 2PP in ANY poll taken this year!)
Still, even if you subtract 5% from the 2PP it’s clearly a Ruddslide win of 57-43.
Fagin 19,
I agree with you totally, this face to face is grossly understating the Labor vote, 78-22… LOL
134 seats!!!! one can only dream
http://www.abc.net.au/elections/federal/2007/calculator/?swing=national&national=14.7&nsw=0&vic=0&qld=0&wa=0&sa=0&tas=0&act=0&nt=0&retiringfactor=1.5
Centre - betting markets are dynamic systems and will respond in the short term to specific inputs. That doesn’t mean that at any point in time they reflect the ‘actual’ situation, just that people betting have a particular view. And since the people betting are p#$sing the Liberal Party’s money down the drain, they reflect, at the minute, that particualrly twisted version of ‘reality’.
Betting markets are OK for the overall result but can be risky in individual seats.
It is like the AFL grand final, most believed Geelong would win and they were favourites with the bookies, but the odds on which team would kick the first goal or point, which player would kick the first scoring shot and who would win the man of the match were more open.
ooooh it makes me giggle like a school-girl!
How many seats does Labor need to change the constitution by itself?
C de F. CRAP!
Well to be frank CL i don’t really think either side has campaigned well to be honest.
The trouble is neither side is getting traction on anything really, voters are bored but Labor has a large lead this does not auger well for us Tories unfortunately. I am lamenting the shalacking ill receive from my Labor friends this is on top of the shalacking i get for us Tories being beaten 3 times in Victoria, nevertheless i still think ‘Unca Howie’ can pull it off if anybody can he can, after all Kevie says ‘Unca Howie’ is a clever politician lol!
Nice to see the Ghost of Mark Latham returning to haunt Rudd, it’s a shame the media are so soft on the issue and hardly touched Rudd with a feather today. It’s sad that they don’t listen to a former leader when he says something but still a negative for KR today for sure.
Still ‘Unca Howie’ is doing the best he can given the circumstances and he is the best man to be leading the Tories this time round, if we were around 10-8points down with 2 weeks to go id far rather want ‘Unca Howie’ than Deputy Dawg leading us that’s for sure.
Regardless about how much this Morgan poll smells and it does to high heaven, it’s a very very bad trend for us
!
Well, Centre, all will be revealed in just over a fortnight. Hope you got on!
Interesting that last weekend produced both the best and worst poll results for Labor this year.
Mate, you will be turning a shade of ghost white if tomorrows ACN is 52/48.
William with respect I think you have ‘absorbed’ the ‘kellying’ & sham-I-am matchbox-look-here-why it’s Dear Leader-rounding-up-the hoons-and saving us all from-err&err-oh and err or Sol on a high wire with match, not wobbling…
etc.
Go back to Nov & draw a bead…find the vanishing point.
I think the punters have.
Glen, yes it’s a very bad trend for you. I agree, the campiagn hasn’t been very inspiring. I don’t think Hopward is doing well at all, though, whereas Rudd has his lines down straight and keeps on message. The other thing, of course, is that the punters are clearly fed up with you guys. there’s no getting over that!
Centre and CL: From what I read, we have to wait until Monday week to see how the betting markets firm, as that was about the time they firmed in 04.
Centre, I may well be. But the likelihood is that it’s going to be somewhere between 54-46 and 56-44. And, again, we shall see!
Will from K - my point exactly!
Rudd back in Boothby and campaigning heavily in SA in the last 2 days … a pretty good sign that Labor are homing in for the kill in Sturt and Boothby.
C de F, I didn’t say it wouldn’t be. Opinions, information and market forces form the prices.
Will from K. You are both kiddin’ if you think history will repeat like that. Im going to have something to eat. C U both later.
Win News Sunny Coast poll “Has the federal govt. short changed coast roads” 68% YES.
State Health Minister announces Clinical School for The Sunny Coast.
PS Glen. Morgan oversampled QLD
Wow - just seen the number.
Glen’s Bull Butter seems on the money.
Does anyone believe it. Still it’s more fun than an outlier that is 50-50.
Pity though - so much for any sensible discussion on the poll tonight.
Will Kroger and Cameron be on LL tonight?
Either that or SA ruawake.
Serenity Now!
Centre - indeed, but each of these can be based on erroneous views. But, my point is that relatively thin betting markets can be influenced relatively easily. That’s all!
Glen.. agree whoeheartedly with your view of the campaign.. but , as you know , that was exactly how Rudd wanted it to playout.
I can’t believe the Libs are trying to make anything of Latham. I believe Bill Heffernan has more influence in the ALP than he does… and even the people who donkey vote know it!
Of course Morgan polls are now, and probably always have been a crock of sh*t.
Any how Glen, bear up till 24th.. you’re a braver little soldier than ever I would be. One piece of good news for you.. The NP vote was up by 25% (from 2% to 2.5%)
Let’s just fanatise a bit, plugging this into Antony Green’s calculator
http://www.abc.net.au/elections/federal/2007/calculator/?swing=national&national=14.7&nsw=0&vic=0&qld=0&wa=0&sa=0&tas=0&act=0&nt=0&retiringfactor=1.5
and we get 14 seats Coalition, 2 Independents and 134 Labor!
Brendan Nelson, Sophie Panopolos, Bronwyn Bishop and Wilson Tuckey left vieing for Liberal Leader - oh the humanity!
The thing from the polls that seems to matter, in the case of Newspoll anyway, is the 28-40 per cent of respondents who have left their options open by ststing that they may to a greater or lesser extent change their minds aand vote for the other side. I suspect, and someone with more knowledge can correct me, the other polls are similar. In these circumstances, it’s difficult to draw any firm conclusions at all. I must say, however, the vision of JWH standing over some poor woman he’d just pork barrelled into unconsciousness is an image that will linger for a while.
What do you guys make of Shanahan’s antics???
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22727906-11949,00.html
http://www.theage.com.au/news/federal-election-2007-news/car-industry-refutes-report/2007/11/09/1194329492589.html
Have you ever seen a children’s entertainment puppet with a droopy nose?
That’s me after reading this Morgan
I agree its an outlier, but even so, it would need to be out by massive 10% for it to move back to landslide territory
Autumn morning:
And the Liberal hopes
Blow away in the wind
Yes, I’ve just got up. Another bizarre set of numbers. One day you’ll all look back at this time and laugh. Well, some of us will.
This poll may well be crap - the views of a random 990. What is shows though is that the punters havn’t bought the big scare camapign. (BTW, that campaign is about to get even scarier.) It also shows that during elections polls don’t have to narrow - occasionally they can widen. Make no mistake, the undecideds could still make this a wipeout of historic proportions.
Did I just see on the ABC news Costello refer to Kevin Andrews as “the good Kevin”?
Oh boy, even “serious eleciton mode” Costello would have struggled not to break out the smirk at that statment.
AnthonyL at #49 - just think of the victory for women in the Liberal Party. Overnight, they’d reach 40% of party representation. :p
Gippslander the NP vote was probably an outlier at 2.5% lol!
Still im sure that will be enough for Mark Vaile to jump on another skate board and wear his baseball cap backwards!
Vaile is so uninspiring it is not funny, not to put the man down or nothing but he couldn’t hold a candle to John Anderson.
AnthonyL if that really did happen i think its a certainty that the Nats could have as much if not more seats than the Liberals making them the official opposition and Tuckey could be the Liberal Leader with at least Sophie’s and Bronwyn’s vote to count on, that is simply ‘bizzaro world’ stuff though thank god that won’t happen.
Do you wonder if when Gary Morgan got these numbers he went “oh sh*t this is really going to boost my credibility now…” SO then he sits down and writes the polling equivalent of a a** covering letter:
“The issue of interest rates has not yet been fully played out in the political arena. The real question is how the electorate will respond to the latest interest rate increase — will they blame the Government and consider ‘record interest rates’ promises by Mr Howard, will they blame the global financial economy and look to the L-NP Government, as strong economic managers, to lead the country in the coming turbulent economic times?
In other words, even I don’t believe these numbers, so please forget them until next week.
At the last election, I was convinced Latham was campaigning for the Liberals. This time, I’m sure he’s switched sides. By criticizing Labor, he will make them look even better than they already do. No-one in their right mind can take Latham seriously. He is what I would like to describe as an absurd decoy player; running interference as a kind of free-lancing double-double-agent. The AFR have finally demonstrated they do have a sense of humour, even if it is from the dark side.
Glen:
I take it you have the same view of John Hewson and Malcolm Fraser when they discuss Howard?
According to Antony Green, the undecideds will break 2:1 according to the current trend. If the undecideds is 6%, that means 4 - 2 to Labor.
The government needs to make that 2 - 4 to them, and even then they’ll probably lose.
It’s probably been said - but tributes are owing to Peter Andren.
This is a man who showed how to be conservative AND decent.
It’s a shame there aren’t more of him in parliament.
William started up this thread just when I’d posted something on the phone poll, so will reprise as I’m interested in what others think. Find the Morgan F2F hard to take seriously, and the phone has a sample of only 500 odd, so like others, tend to take more seriously the AC Neilson, which doesn’t bounce around so much and has a bigger sample. What I was thinking about was two things. One was Possum’s analysis of the relationship between the cashrate and Labor voting intention. Due to the heavily telegraphed probability of the rates rise, has this kicked in earlier than usual? My understanding being that there’s usually a lag in time. The other thing that may be in play is the increasingly shambolic Lib. campaign and behaviour of senior Libs. when they put their heads above the parapet, e.g. Abbott last week. As Kina nicely summarised on the previous thread, you’d be hard put going a ‘me too’ with them on anything currently, as it shifts with every day. Rudd, on the other hand, just stays ‘on song’, and my respect for Penny Wong just increases each time I hear her speak. She’s seriously good.
when is dennis going to say sorry now that the car industry have called him a liar? making up stories used to be a nono if i remember.
Yes, it is a free country and i am not a hypocrite. Asanque the media jumps all over ‘Unca Howie’ when they (Hewson and Fraser) come out to slam him. They run the story hard for at least a few days if they said something major, alas this doesn’t happen for the other side, oh well.
maybe they polled all the liberal campaign offices
I only wish tonight on LL they had Keating v Latham, but then they’d need to make sure the paramedics were onsight, so probably best not.
BV - it’s unfortunate that Mr Shanahan is so incapable of balanced reporting.
With the demise of the other papers around the Country (most notably the Herald), The Australian has actually become probably the most cerebral paper… it’s just that people like Dennis and that foreign affairs goose are not able to fulfil their role as they should.
Matt Price is sorely missed
as someone said, this means that 55 is still a possibility.
Glen - let me say I do sympathise.
i know how I felt in ‘96.
But you never know… this might end up like ‘93, and sadly enough that was one of the best nights of my life.
Glen: The Latham story is on the front page of each of the major papers.
What else do you want?
Centre @ 20,
I think much of the firming for the Coalition in the betting markets was earlier this week after the 53-47 Newspoll.
However in the last couple days, i.e. since the interest rate rise, the bookies have been quiet. I think the punters are waiting for the spate of post-interest rate rise polls, such as the next AC Nielsen poll - which I hear is rumoured to be 55-45.
Still, even 1.39-3.15 in IASBet translates into the punters thinking Labor has a 70% chance of winning the election in a fortnight’s time. And according to Simon Jackman, the average of the bookies probabilities of Labor winning 76 seats or more at the election is even higher at around 76%.
Anyway here are the odds from 8 different betting agencies at the moment:
Centrebet: ALP = 1.36, Coa = 3.15
IASbet: ALP = 1.39, Coa = 3.15
Sportingbet: ALP = 1.32, Coa = 3.30
Sportsbet: ALP = 1.37, Coa = 3.00
Portlandbet: ALP = 1.33, Coa = 3.30
Sportsacumen: ALP = 1.37, Coa = 3.10
Betfair: ALP = 1.39, Coa = 3.45
Lasseters: ALP = 1.37, Coa = 3.10
51
BV Says:
November 9th, 2007 at 7:24 pm
What do you guys make of Shanahan’s antics???
……
In the good old days, he would have been called an “urger”: someone who would encourage others to enlist in the army, and yet enjoy an exemption from serving himself. He couldn’t care less about carworkers, carmakers or the truth of things. He is just not to be believed.
Do you honestly think anyone will cast their vote based on anything Mark Latham says?
Captions for this photo, pls?
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/11/09/2086754.htm
blindoptimist, you’ve hit the head on the nail, or the other way round if you’re not drunk with euphoria over the delicious numbers flying over the blogosphere at the moment!
For the drowning Howard to grab the passing corpse of Mark Latham to hold him up for a bit while the Ruddwave crashes over him is just too ridiculously funny to contemplate!
Now the great Boof is a credible witness! And if I twist what he says, (that Rudd is in fact a conservative) I can tell the electorate to beware the hidden radical agenda hiding behind the mild Clark Kent exterior.
There is nothing, I repeat NO-THING, even remotely approaching this for improbability on the movies or daytime soaps…it’s utterly incredible!
Showson:
Nope, no one will care.
Shanahan and Milne will call it another turning point.
Anyway, Latham trashed the Libs far more then he trashed the ALP.
How about some tough questions to Rudd, Asanque let they let him off easy as usual and let him get away with his slogans to answer the questions but what does it matter.
Michael i don’t know what would hurt more losing Government or losing 5 elections in a row? I’d probably pick losing 5 in a row any day.
Glen: What questions would you have asked Rudd based on the Latham article?
Yeah - losing in ‘96 hurt much more than anything since
Glen to hear you complain about the presses treatment of former leaders is not worthy of you.
You know that Keating gets more press than every other leader (including Howard and Rudd) combined when he has half a sentence in a 15 minute interview that admonishes Rudd.
Fraser - nothing.
Hewson - doesn’t he often contribute a column to the AFR? No one gives a damn.
I am not a jurno Asanque, but the media have let off Rudd me-tooing on many coalition policies, let him get away with it once he’ll keep doing it and he has.
Caption from #75 - ‘Sorry?’
Grog - you know as well as I do that every swinging voter in the country reads John Hewson’s articles.
The AFR - the paper of choice for swinging voters!
Glen @ 82, you gotta be joking! The median has let off Howard for 11 years!
Give us all a break and pull your head out mate.
Exactly, but that isn’t the way it has been reported.
You mean slogans, such as:
“70% union bosses”
“Union controlled”
“Going for Growth”
“Full employment”
“Aspirational Nationalism”
“Historic lows”
I meant media, not median
Glen: If you are going to make a point, at least have the decency to flesh it out.
1. Have you read Latham’s article?
2. What exactly did Latham say in his article that was so critical of Rudd?
3. Rudd has not me-tooed on Kyoto or Iraq.
4. If you believe Howard’s policies are so good, and the ALP intend to implement some of them, what is the problem?
Well Glen, 83, 84, 87, 90, 93… yep five in a row would be hard - I have no desire to feel what it is like.
Was Howard ever a good campaigner? He has been completely inept at both politics and policy since the previous election. It is as if the country took a step in one direction and Howard went another. All the smear campaigns, the silly lies about union domination and other fear stuff, and now a “radical” Rudd, etc., are so far off the mark, it makes Howard look like a fool.
Ever since Howard got control of the senate, we have slowly watched him self-destruct.
I don’t think that Rudd is doing the best job that he could on this campaign, and yet, he ends up looking brilliant because of the erratic and inept Howard.
How the tables turn…
ShowOn, the best thing Howard will be remembered for is his now infamous term “plausible deniability”
Hey Glen think of the positive side to this outlier. Next week there will be this great headline saying ‘Libs back in the game’ with the numbers being 56 Lab - 44 Coalition TPP. Then you and your ilk will be saying ” Here we come.!!!”
What are Morgan thinking? Surely, they must be wondering if their formula is right after this…
I think the only way for them to get any credibility back is to have the final poll within a 1% margin of error.
I have not read the Latham article. But the headlines regarding policy differences and the lack and the view that Greed dominates this election i totally agree with. Latham would have been a good Prime Minister because he would not have preached to lobby groups and the media dills. He would been in it for the ordinary folk. The current twosome are in it for themselves and the rich and he is generally right very little will change.
Anthony L writes:
“Brendan Nelson, Sophie Panopolos, Bronwyn Bishop and Wilson Tuckey left vieing for Liberal Leader - oh the humanity!”
I reckon they should go with Wilson or Bronwyn, Anthony. Otherwise they’ll have their leader in a risky marginal seat like Bennelong again!
Bruce Scott as new leader of the Nats, perhaps, if they still qualify as a party?
George:
I think it will be
1. non-core promises
http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=non-core+promise
2. Or the “Never ever” GST
3. Or the Sorry, but not I’m not apologizing.
Caption.
“Lynton why do the voters do this when I look at them?”
Oh Glen, if you are unhappy with the media now, just wait until Rupert tells them that he always backs winners and that Ruddski if going to win. Oh yes, and it appears everyone in the developed world’s interest rates are going down except LET ME GUESS, MORE TIME PLEASE, OH YEAH COULD IT BE AUSTRALIA. YES ITS AUSTRALIA thanks to the world’s laziest treasurer.
Forget Latham - this story is already out the back door.
Whoops, should have looked at Bronwyn’s margin before I posted! Looks like it will have to be Sharman Stone. Heck, she could be the first person with an anthropology degree to lead the opposition!
Cheers
Rod
76
Kirribilli Removals Says:
November 9th, 2007 at 7:43 pm
blindoptimist, you’ve hit the head on the nail…There is nothing, I repeat NO-THING, even remotely approaching this for improbability.
…
KR, it is a great spectacle to watch though, don’t you think? The supposed genius of Australian politics, undone by his own ambition, by full-grown contempt for his own party, by neglect of the issues and by his effortless deceptions of the public.
And relying on Latham? The dissembling calling on the disgraced!
Charlie #56
Equal Opportunity in the Liberals.
Including a quota of 10% for ultra-right wingers (Alex Hawke in Mitchell)
I find it most amusing the way that Gary Morgan has buried this poll on his own site, without its own headline, and subsumed into the ‘phone poll item, which had a very small sample. He obviously doesn’t believe it himself, and just wishes it would go away. That being said, with a 95% MOE of around 3.4, it could just be an ‘unlucky’ (for his credibility) actual TPP of 58.5 or so, which could, more or less, be in the ballpark of the Galaxy and Newspoll efforts carried out at the same time.
Oh well, we’ll see how it plays out in the fullness of time. It is certainly hard to spin it in any positive way for JWH.
cheers,
Alan H
The Morgan face-to-face appears to have been withdrawn?? Only the phone poll remains??
i put this on an earlier thread but think its vital we don’t lose track of this debate over how the Aus lied to the public today and got caught out
and in my humble opinion, I think the fundamental reason for the 10 point gap we have seen for the last year is that cognitive dissonence ended when Rudd arrived:
People can continue to believe Howard is a good guy and a lying rodent as long as there isn’t a reality check
but once reality bites, then his tricks, lying, mean and tricky persona is exposed in stark relief…
Thie following is in regard to dennis shanahan’s rubbish today….it deserves to be properly exposed…
I have just had a chance to catch up with how Bongiorno at 10 and others have exposed Dennis Shanahan for the shonk we all knew him to be.
Congratulations BushfireBill for following this up
But when you read in the story this morning paragraphs such as:
“The PM&C submission says it is “widely recognised that Australian car manufacturers are facing serious pressure, raising real questions about the long-term viability of at least two, and possibly three, of the companies”.
“In essence, the question that the industry is raising is why would a Toyota, Ford or a General Motors in Tokyo or Detroit respectively want to invest millions in upgrading an Australian operation when they are facing higher labour costs, greater union militancy and the threat of more strike action when they can put their money into low-cost and highly efficient Chinese operations?”
…you have to ask yourself, was the PM & C submission written by Peter Hendy or by a Liberal party stooge placed in the department to generate such rubbish, which frankly reads like something from an undergraduate Liberal student doing business studies at Bond Uni…
With any little luck this story will “bell the cat” on the woeful coverage from our erstwhile national newspaper of record…
I hope someone puts in a complaint to the Press Council
And someone should also try and FOI the letter and its support material (that is, unless there’s a conclusive certificate on it already)
And if the journos of the MSM had any balls they would be starting to direct questions to both the Treasurer, the Finance Minister, the Minister for Industry etc to see if they were made aware of this correspondence
And directing questions to Shanahan himself…
Come on fearless members of the 4th estate…..your credibility demands it….
And BTW, frankly if you were a global manufacturing company would you be happy having your “brand” associated with “Team Howard”? and their ideological anti-union obsessions?
I think not. I suspect that not even Ratsak wants the association….
I really hope the media ask some hard questions of itself about this story, which - after all - led the front page of our national broadsheet and was clearly designed to set the agenda for the day and dovetails perfectly into the rhetoric and verbiage of the Coalition Government….
Is Dennis Shanahan for real?
I guess Paul Kelly is just happy he wasn’t lumbered or instructed to write this rubbish…
1. No
2. He wrote that this election is “a Seinfeld election, a show about nothing” and that there is no real difference between the parties.
ie confirming that Labor is only me-tooing.
3. Actually on post-Kyoto he has, he was for it before he was against it, now he only supports it if China and India sign. Before he and Garrett said they’d sign post-Kyoto regardless. On Iraq, Rudd will keep hundreds of ADF troops there, his ‘pull out’ is just a slogan.
4. Why go with a cheap and risky alternative when the original is a known quality performer; that’s why i’ll be voting for Adam Held and the Liberal Party in this election.
Woooooohhhhhhhhh
I am The Ghost of Mark Latham
And I told you all I would be making a return
WWWOooooooooooo!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Labor is going down Wooooowwwww
83
Stephen Says:
November 9th, 2007 at 7:48 pm
Caption from #75 - “Now who’s sorry?”
103: Indeed. They havent even included the 62/38 result in their own graph.
I can’t find this outlier on the Morgan site.
Latham slags off Rudd by saying that the ALP will be even more conservative in office than they have been in opposition, and Howard tries to capitalise on it by saying “see, that proves that they will be more radical in office than they have been in opposition.”
Is there any wonder that this story won’t get any traction for the coalition?
They must have read our comments LOL!
LOL, poor old Costello was absolutely terrible on Sky today. No wonder he failed maths, said that 240,000 a year equates to 1,000 a day. Even his mate Speers was getting frustrated with him, now that he doesn’t get a free ride from the press any more he is being caught out on the tough questions.
Most interesting point of the interview was that even though Speers asked him 3 times if he would resign if workchoices was made tougher after the election he flatly refused. Not a good sign for Tip and sure to get a run tomorrow
caption
“you’ll be fine, were opening a clinic right around the corner!”
104 GL - it’s still there, they never gave it it’s own page (from what I can see) but this still remains:
“The 12 point lead in the latest telephone Morgan Poll — conducted after the RBA announced an interest rate rise — represents an increase in the ALP lead of 3% compared to the previous telephone poll. However, it is still less than the 24% lead recorded in the last face-to-face Morgan Poll — conducted before the interest rate increase was officially announced, but after Tony Abbott’s gaffes and the increase in the latest CPI figures.
LOL, it’s so damn biased - not a mention of Garrett. Oh well the Libs have newspoll, we have Morgan, and everyone looks at the ACN and Galaxy for a representation of reality.
Anyone like to start quoting Fraser or Hewson to Glen? I can’t be bothered. Will swing as many votes as this Latham BS too.
Glen @ 106 you’re clutching at straws to justify supporting and voting for a man (and party) who used poor refugees to win elections, went with the “coalition of the willing” which has directly/indirectly been responsible for over 650,000 Iraqi deaths (see Lancet), has been a global warming skeptic, and sought to change the fabric of Australian democracy.
Good riddance to him and hopefully to Liberal power for a long time coming.
Gary Bruce - they have buried it amongst the telephone poll results - click on that linkc and you will find it
Well, we bloggers have 3 polls taken last weekend:
Galaxy 54-46
Newspoll 53-47
Morgan f2f 62-38
Clearly, the Morgan f2f absolutely can’t be right. However, I did think that Newspoll would be better than Galaxy, as that’s been the general trend. I’d now put the position at around 56-44. Interestingly, on the “think will win” question, there’s very little difference between Newspoll and Morgan. Here’s the comparison:
Newspoll 60% Labor win, 26% Coalition
Morgan 58.5% Labor, 28.5% Coalition
You would expect a big Labor “think will win” to coincide with a big Labor vote; this isn’t the case here.
GB - they have buried it amongst the telephone poll results - click on that link and you will see the results
Murdoch and the all the corporate heads are laughing their heads off at present. Why? Because the Labor Party will let them continue on as before after the election. An election which to date has provided no progressive policies from either party - Yawn.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/11/09/2086754.htm?site=elections/federal/2007
I’ve just realised what the caption is, after musing awhile on Holy Scripture (as you do):
“Tabitha, rise”
http://www.bible-history.com/smiths/T/Tabitha/
Was just on The Wik looking at past elecitons - read this on the 1984 one:
“The election was notable for the long ten week campaign, and for the high rate of informal voting for the House of Representatives, but decreased rate in the Senate (due to the introduction of the Group voting ticket).”
10 weeks??? oh the humanity!!!
Pardon me for daring to speak out against the commonly accepted wisdom, but what actual evidence (not opinion) is there that Morgan over-rates Labor in their polls?
Is it not the case that out of the major polling companies, Morgan has been the most accurate in predicting the level of primary vote in their last poll before polling day over the last 5-6 Federal elections? (I vaguely recall some analysis on this somewhere in the blogosphere).
That said, yes the 62-38 is most likely an outlier. But hey I’ll happily accept it as 4-5 points out and will be able to handle a 57-43 result.
No new tricks for Howard. No messages that work for Howard. No more time for Howard.
A Ruddslide of biblical proportions awaits Howard on his day of reckoning.
Sorry for the repitition - malfunction here
Grog - 10 weeks sounds absolutely excruciating. my productivity at work is down by about half during this election - this is costing the economy shitloads!!!
Thanks Michael, it’s a wonder it is there at all.
Ben Cousins had the right idea, 5 days of meth in LA has got to be better then this!
at least the time would go fast
124 Sideline Eye - Thankyou for your comments Mr. Morgan.
Grog-Ten weeks!! Is that even legal now coz the Rodent would have gone with ten if he could have? This was the bastard who chose six weeks because “Australia deserves a six week campaign”.
Get Real, Shanahan’s deceitful attempt at creating a story to help support the Liberal Party (and implicating car manufacturing companies in the process) is an absolute disgrace. But for many of us here, it is not surprising, either for Shanahan or for The Australian. They have consistently proven themselves to lack credibility and integrity. The newspaper is a joke.
I suggest that people send emails to The Australian to complain about this issue. They get away with twisting the truth and generally writing garbage because of the assumption that their readers are too dim-witted to know the difference between fact and fiction. They deserve a backlash.
These were the only details I could find:
Grant Holloway
hollowayg@theaustralian.com.au
Managing Editor - Online
02 9288 2336
Nic Hopkins
hopkinsn@theaustralian.com.au
News Editor - Online
02 9288 2376
If anyone has a better targeted email address, such as Chris Mitchell’s (editor-in-chief), then please post it up.
George they weren’t all refugees many were illegal immigrants and our tough stance prevented other SIVEX disasters because people smugglers got the message. George we had to because we want to maintain ANZUS but also i think removing a brutal dictator was a good thing and how many hundreds of thousands would have died under a continuation of Saddam’s rule and then by his sons???
George he has seen the light on climate change also.
Although, for a change I will agree with both Glen and Latham and say that actually it’s been a very boring, and bad campaign so far. Tax cuts - and ther inflationary impact - have been about the policy hilight so far, and the rest of it has been based on minutiae that we all love and which bores most people silly.
Fortunately this, IMNSHO, just confirms the notion that people are going to vote as they decided about 8 months ago and it will be 54+/46- at the end of the day…
Thanks Kiwip, 3.15 for LIB is quite short.
I have a feeling that this ACN poll, at this stage of the campaign, after the interest rate rise, with the betting been a bit quiet as you say, is going to shape the rest of the campaign as far of confidence is concerned.. There may be no further movement in the polls thereafter?
Nice spin Glen, but pathetic in your attempt to justify what he did and how this government handled the whole affair. He vilified these people and let them drown to make a point.
Illegal immigrants? You are surely delusional. Like there’s a nice orderly line you stand in to leave a country that is actively undermining your very existence.
Yes, the Morgan is an outlier - but its an outlier in the wrong direction for the government.
How many Govts pull off a victory when they get numbers like that from anyone two weeks before an election?
Can’t wait for Nielsen and Newspoll over the next few days. And if, as Gary Morgan claims, the phone polls favour the LNP then ???
And it hasn’t been the best of weeks…
Martin B.. It is the stupid country with stupid politicians. Four weeks of kissing babies, gaffes which are not gaffes, debates in which neither side has anything meaningful to say and polls and more polls. Rudd to me is a dud but will be made into a Labor hero, and really is a corporate boy who believes in nothing.
Yep Michael - but I guess back then, without the web, each issue would have got about a 7 days run in the media.
I can’t remember the campaign. The 87 one I do, as I got kicked out of silent readin in Year 11 for singing the ALP theme song (Let’s stick together, let’s see it through) - yes I was a nerd - thank goodness I was good at sport!
And for a trip down memory lane check out whinging Wendy from that glorious 1987 campaign (written by Bob McMullen!).
Regardless of your leanings, it is a hoot - the figures mentioned are so minute they are laughable - an 8% Consumption Tax???!!! 3 cents in the dollar!!!!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f7L41KVnt9M
silliest poll result ever
Let it End:
I also watched the interview that Speers did with Costello. What I found hilarious was when Costello tried to compare the current situation (4% Unemployement and 3% Inflation) with 1974 (4% Unemployment and 16% Inflation). I don’t dispute the facts, but being a trained economist myself I do recall that in 1974 that the price of oil went up by 400% in a month, triggering world wide staglation.
I wonder what Johnny and Pete would do if the price of oil approached $400 a barrel over the course of the next month. At least then they could rightly blame rising oil prices for inflation. The irony of it all. You’d think a journalist would know some basic economic history (not to mention theory) to challenge the Treasurer’s interpretation of history.
Email Chris Mitchell:
mitchellc@theaustralian.com.au
Know it off by heart.
Warning: He will reply to emails in a terribly sarcastic tone.
Glen, it isn’t illegal to seek asylum, whether you like it or not.
Possum analysed the crap out of the ‘Morgan Bias’ here:
http://possumcomitatus.wordpress.com/2007/07/08/analysing-the-poll-bias-morgan-vs-newspoll-part-ii/
If you look at the first comment, you will see it was from me, and has since been pinched, out of context by Gary Morgan, and is quoted at the bottom of every one of his poll narratives. In fact, Possum skewered me in an answer when I repeated this comment here, on the same date.
cheers,
Alan H
Grog @139,
Don’t apologise. I still find myself humming “Raise the Standard” from 1980.
Let’s be honest, Howard’s campaigning hasn’t done anything to endear him to voters. Just take a look at what happened today in Sydney http://davefromalbury.files.wordpress.com/2007/11/howard_force.jpg
Thanks Fagin.
Irrespective of the veracity of the result, this is likely to have a disasterous effect on the morale of the coalition candidates and their campaign managers. Howard will try and reassure them that it’s an outlier and the party polling is good but, would they believe him? How many of them have the first idea about statistics?Isn’t the result more in tune with his earlier warning of disaster to the partyroom? And he’s been keeping the party polling close to his chest, so they will just have to trust him. Would he lie?
Oh the irony.
Of course Dario you are quite correct about that, problem is they came here illegally.
Next topic.
I think the only thing Dennis could come up with now to attack KR is a claim that Rudd is a Scientologist.
Ahh, a forgotton thing in Ellections Campaigns - the Humble Jingle.
Even Renee Geyer snag for her supper for Fraser.
Phew! Just home from a great day at the cricket test, to be greeted by these Morgans (which probably really mean 55-45 as usual). I’m not so keen on one-sided contests in the cricket, but an electoral landslide suit me fine
Still, shall be out letterboxing tomorrow - no room for complacency!
Grog: I was in grade 7 then, so I won’t remember anything of it, but what was the ‘3 cents in the dollar’ business about?
And round and round in circles
He fights with failing strength
Till born down by the waters
The old dog sinks at length.
Sorry to be a wet blanket, but convince me - too many let-downs on election nights have left too many scars. I do not trust polls.
Sideline Eye #124
I actually have a friend who used to work for Morgan. He agrees with the accepted wisdom that face-to-face polls do overstate Labor support, probably by 2% or so over phone polls. He says the reason is that most of those who do the polling, out in the streets, are students or young people, orking to get a few extra bucks.
Those who are approached to be polled are sometimes reluctant, if they’re older or likely to vote conservative. Younger folk are more happy to be approached. hence the strong Green vote in ftf and a fairly strong Labor vote. The young pollsters are supposed to make sure they get a fair sample, but it doesn’t always happen. It’s only a slight bias to the left, but if does happen.
You must also take into account that you write out your party of choice, and put it in a box, and don’t tell the pollster face to face (or at least that’s what happened to me some years ago, when I was polled by Morgan). That helps avert the bias, as does weighting of the results.
In phone polls, people are more willing to participate. And Morgan staff can check back with those polled, to check that the young pollsters did question the right age groups and geographical spread.
And in a general comment on the polls….we will never know whether any of the current polls are accurate, because an election is not being held now. The only way to really assess the accuracy of an individual pollster is how accurate the poll immediately before the election was.
Still, it’s all great fun.
Glen 149 - I wouldn’t think that would work either. Jamie Packer’s a Scientologist, and so is a former chief of staff to Dolly Downer. (Yes, the Libs do attract those cultists…)
Speaking of that Renee Geyer tune. via a link on Tim Blair’s site.
http://www.australianpolitics.com/elections/1975/turn-on-the-lights.ram
That I don’t remember (VoterBoy, help us out?)- but it probably had to do with tax cuts. I recall Singo did the ALP’s ads then and their was a classic of a puppet Howard as magician who was getting money out of thin air (apparently there was a bit of a whole in his tax plan - he should have me-too’d!)
Does the Do Not Call register affect the phone polling companies?
Derek @153
After the last 11 years, I don’t trust elections.
Almost all of the outliers have tended to be upwards rather than downwards for Labor. The lowest all year has been 53. Why haven’t we seen a 50-50 outlier, which is just as far away from the most common result of 55-45 as a 60-40 poll?
Maybe not all of these “rogues” are entirely outliers. Sure, this one is obviously inflated, and it doesn’t accord with the Galaxy and Newspoll, which were taken at roughly the same time. But FTF is a different ballgame. It captures people that a phone poll may not.
141 John Button, are you the John Button from down Geelong way and formerly an industry enthusiast?
Market Research companies and political parties and charities are exmept.
“Rudd to me is a dud but will be made into a Labor hero, and really is a corporate boy who believes in nothing.”
[shrug] I thin that’s a little harsh but I don’t completely disagree.
But despite his many flaws, Rudd will be a hero to many, including me, for managing to finally defeat the unworthy Howard, who believes in little more than nothing, but all of which is vile.
John Button:
Yes very true, I honestly didn’t know whether to burst out laughing at the absurdity or shed tears in sorrow for Costello’s deranged mental state. He had one prepared line (crosby textor for him) which he used about 6 times, regardless of the question and often using it twice in the one answer, but fluffed it every time.
Costello is certainly no economist
I know what’s going to be on the front page of our papers tomorrow in Victoria - “Ashby resigns from senior Vic police job”
VBoOtW @ 145
I am permanently scarred by making home brew in that year - a vintage my mate and I called “Raisin the Standard” - ouch!
Glen
The issue of the ‘legality’ of arrival only becomes relevant if their claim to asylum is denied. The relevant question is: do they have a legitimate claim to asylum?
Simple.
the line about illegality is obfuscation and an attempt to evade moral responsibility by people interested in using fear for political purposes.
Martin B, I’m on record as saying I don’t think Rudd is perfect. But elections are about freaking winning - do that and he will fully deserve to be an ALP hero.
But the bigger question is what will JWH’s legacy be if he loses?
*cough* bullshit
StanS…sorry to let you down, but I’m not the real John Button. I’ve been thinking about Shamahan’s pathetic piece today on the Automobile Industry and Mr Button’s name came to mind. Unfortunately, we don’t get those kind of guys in Parliament anymore.
Glen, like most Liberals, appears to find it acceptable to punish real, innocent people for the imaginary transgressions of others, and to force poverty stricken countries on the edges of war zones to accept an unlimited refugee burden while wealthy distant countries pick and choose their response.
I find that revolting.
It starts to show that Costello is useless without the support of Treasury and the other 87 HoR Coalition members helping him in parliament to remember how to count. Perhaps Costello will benefit from Howard’s R’s education system.
I for one think the polls will widen again in the coming days. Howard’s conduct this last week has been reminiscent of his performance earlier this year - erratic, dissembling, delusional, bickering, ill-tempered - that helped cement opinion behind Rudd. The interest rate rise will peel another 90,000 voters from the coalition. And the arrogant-yet-fumble-headed efforts of the coalition team will compound the damage.
This is the PM-and-sponsoring-parties we’ve come to know and reject.
Dave @ 146
Thanks for that, absolutely hilarious
Glen, if I saw people drowning, I would try to save their lives, if it was in my power to do so.
If I subsequently found them to be illegal immigrants (or asylum seekers), I would alert the appropriate authorities and leave them to deal with it.
I think the SIEVX episode, and AWB paying bribes to Saddam Hussein, are a blot on my nation’s reputation.
And on another issue - “me-tooism”….
If Rudd supports a Howard policy, how can Howard complain? If it’s a good policy, it should be supported. It may be a clever political tactic by Labor, but how can Liberals complain about it?
If you argue that all Labor does is copy Howard’s policies, and Rudd is ahead in the polls, the only conclusion you can reach is that voters prefer Rudd to Howard, and actually believe he’s more likely to implement Howard’s policies than Howard is!
Anyway, we all need to go for growth, while stopping wages (the reward for growth) down. Rememeber - you’ll be better off when you’re worse off!
I would like to be a fly on the wall of the Costello household,these kind of opinion poll results would be wiping that smug smirk of his face,we all know now who has “no ticker”
Martin, i am happy to accept some refugees to Australia but i think we should punish que jumpers as harshly as we can.
Grog if nothing else JWH made sure Keating was a 1 termer thank goodness. For that he deserves his indexed pension and then some.
70 Michael Says: November 9th, 2007 at 7:39 pm
Not me. I voted for howard.
The belting awaiting the libs is going to be even greater.
going by msm behaviour with regards to the election nothing will become of shannanan car article , the msm have been avid supporters of the liberals all year , cannot see it changing
morgan’s ftf seems to have been collected in safe labor seats
it must have crapped morgan off, to do a poll and the results are that noone will believe it
Let It End@113
As much as a hate to defend Costello, 48 weeks per year (4 weeks holidays), 5 days per week at $1000 per day does actually add up to $240,000 a year.
“Martin, i am happy to accept some refugees to Australia….”
Thanks Glen, that’s very big of you….
“…but i think we should punish que jumpers as harshly as we can. ”
You just don’t get it Glen. My father would have done anything to get us out of our situation and emigrate to another country, anything at all. Maybe when you have children and you can see they would have no future where they are, you too might consider “que jumping” to further their opportunities.
From Possum
“From this we can say that since 2000 Morgan has, on average, estimated the ALP primary vote to be about 2.3 points higher than Newspoll and estimated the Coalition vote to be about 1 point lower than Newspoll.”
One of the least commented upon (except by me
but interesting moments of the campaign was how Howard in the leaders’ debate mounted a vigorous defence of me-tooism, claiming that his support from opposition of government policies in the ’80s was a sign of great virtue…
I would really like to think that John Button was contributing to this blog.
I also hope that Gough is too..
and even poor Mark….
As far as I can tell, this is one of the more civilised and engaged and informed spaces in our multimedia world…
and I guess there is a strong chance that John Button might well be participating, as he had an integrity that I suspect voters fundamentally know they cannot ever get with JWH and hence they now find the complete contrast with someone like Rudd…
sure, no saint (would that we all were) but at least someone who you sense (hope) actually has a conscience….
lets have more john buttons and as our new great helmsman might exhort: let a thousand john buttons bloom….our country can only benefit, as opposed to the dead hands of the costellos and howards etc etc of the world….
Yes but why wouldn’t you go through normal channels and apply to come here legally?
I put the morgan face2face poll through a rigorous statistical calculation involving the degree of cosine times the tan of the exponential minus the coefficient of the square root of infinity divided by pi and I came up with the following Margin of Error for the F2F Labor polling figure of 62%:
the MOE is between +38% & -0.00000000000000000000000000001
Therefore, I can deduce from my well proven methodology that Howard is f**ked.
166 Gary Bruce you make a good point - the big problem for any party comming from behind is to break through the rest of the news.
The papers and TV seem to have gotten bored with the election.
We have the campaign launches… then what else is left? In week 2-3 the big spending was so big, that now a $1b policy would be news story #5.
Because the government in your home country wants you dead?
Because a militia in your own country wants to rape your wife and daughters?
Because religious extremists in your country have murdered your brothers and sisters, and are now coming to get you?
Because you’re already dead, and it is your family that is trying to get to somewhere safe?
186
Glen Says:
November 9th, 2007 at 8:42 pm
Yes but why wouldn’t you go through normal channels and apply to come here legally?
……
because the chances are someone like you, glen, would end up rejecting the application for no good reason…
“Yes but why wouldn’t you go through normal channels and apply to come here legally?”
Glen, give up - you don’t get it when you use terms like “normal channels”, “apply” and “legally”. Please explain to everyone what you mean by these terms. For someone in a war-torn country, or living under a dictatorship, how do they go about contacting the “normal channels” and “applying” to “legally” emigrate?
when is the budget of honesty due , must be soon
Seamus:
No mate, he wasn’t talking about salary, he was talking raw employment stats. For those stats please note the country actually runs 7 days a week and has no annual leave.
I think we can all agree this is an outlier. Nonethless, I dont doubt its veracity (ie Morgan didnt make it up).
In other words, there *really are* 990 people out there, Morgan sampled, who returned 62-38.
Unless the entire survey was conducted in Northcote, Newtown and New Farm, that in itself is disastrous news for Howard.
It means the utter wipeout of 54:46 is actually feasible.
Labor have released their how to vote cards for the lower house in the “people” section of their website.
#146 There are many captions to this photo (minus the sparks!) on the previous thread.
But here’s some new captions: “It’s OK - the electricity is from clean coal”
“Are you a South Australian Liberal candidate?”
“How dare you talk to that man from morgan!”
And second-last line of my previous post (#176) should read “keeping” not “stopping”.
Like many others, I think, I hit “submit comment” before proof-reading.
62-38 is hardly believable, but as others have said, if you’re not getting anything equally ridiculous at the other end of the scale (like a 50-50 or 49-51), what’s that telling you? It’s hard to believe that all the wild outriders are at the top end of the scale. You’d have to think that the figures are around 55-45 or even slightly better for Labor.
Just out of interest: I know mixing polls from separate pollsters is unreliable, but what about aggregating both the Morgan polls to give you a total sample size of 1542? If you do that, you end up with a Labor lead of 60-40 2PP. With a margin of error of 2.5% if I’ve done my sums correctly (and I wouldn’t take that for granted).
I suppose it depends on whether the questions and the methodology are the same for both (aside from the obvious difference of the way those polled are selected). Somebody will set me straight no doubt.
PS Did anyone else see Paul Keating’s letter in the SMH today?
Here tis.
David Atherfold suggested John Howard owes me an apology on interest rates (Letters, November 8). I assure him I will not be holding my breath waiting.
The current Liberal Party television ad has a photo of me over a caption of “12%”. I thought, for Mr Atherfold’s benefit and for that of other readers, that I would simply introduce one relevant fact into the interest rate debate. And that is the interest rate which drives all others, the Reserve Bank cash rate, in the three years of the Keating government averaged 6.1 per cent. I repeat: 6.1 per cent.
It was the Keating government that broke the back of Australian inflation. This was why it was able to pass on to Mr Howard and Mr Costello average cash rates of 6.1 per cent when they took office in 1996. That was their inheritance, not 17 per cent, which was the rate for a short time many years earlier, or the 22 per cent that Mr Howard, as treasurer, bequeathed the rest of us in 1981.
Mr Howard might explain to the community how the average cash rate of 6.1 per cent which he inherited from me in 1996 has turned into 6.75 per cent under him yesterday.
Paul Keating Sydney
It is a magic number makes me very happy. Outlier, rogue, pffft who cares it is entirely in the right part of the park.
Nice try Glen with your carrying on the lie to try and demonise refugees as criminals. That you libs are still telling this lie shows how little you have learned and how low you are happy to stay. Interesting Adam’s view on this.
One the number lets dream it was right for a moment, neither party would release figures like this if it was there internal polling, they’d stay quiet or play it down like Adam’s earlier post.
Oh and onto the CDP disappointing to see the Christians are both disgusting homophobic and racist all at once, they must be very proud.
199
jasmine_Anadyr Says:
November 9th, 2007 at 8:49 pm
It is a magic number makes me very happy. Outlier, rogue, pffft who cares it is entirely in the right part of the park.
…
I’m hoping it’s just the beginning, jasmine_A.
This is not the Seinfeld Campaign, but rather the Shake-hands-with-a-dessicated-coconut-birthday-cake Election. Everyone who was something or wanted to be something is throwing their two cents in.
Get Real: Tell you what I’d love to have a few beers with John Button and Paul Keating ( I know lot of people hate….hey I don’t)…..at least those guys new what economic reform was about and could relate back simply to the public….not like the clowns we have in governnment at the moment. All smoke and mirrors with Howard and Costello at the helm.
I would like to see Lindsay Tanner get a run as Treasurer.
I have never tried to demonise genuine refugees as criminals Jasmine, the only criminals are the que jumpers who are here illegally and have no valid claim for humanitarian visas. Don’t put words in my mouth Jasmine.
Glen, what channels? You’re world’s descended into chaos, you have few choices but to get as far away as your own resources will take you. I was dhown a couple of properties by a young Vietnamese woman a while ago. Her parents had run a casino in Saigon, for use by US soldiers. They’s converted their cash into small gold bars. They ran in 1975 - re-education awaited the lot of them if they didn’t. She reckoned each gold bar was worth about $3000 and it cost about $60000 to get the family (illegially) to Australia on a leaky boat. The alternative was a refugee camp in HK and eventual return to Vietnam - followed by re-education. What would you do?
oyster the charter of budget honesty is a total crok - ignore it.
http://petermartin.blogspot.com/2007/09/tuesday-column-rigged-campaign.html
Possum asked me the other day if I thought, as a journalist, any of the Newsy kids would be feeling the heat after the election, in view of how many of them have called this one so terribly wrong. I said no, that Dennis might get his b#m smacked and Sheridan might have to temper his demands to bomb all the towel-heads into oblivion and Milne would have to give up his plans to be a prime ministerial press secretary, but in the end that would be about it. Look at Alan Ramsey after all, I said - he called it for Latham last time and has had to wear the ignominy ever since.
Having just read Dennis’ piece on the car industry and the fall-out from it, I reckon it’s not a little b#m smacking that is going to happen. He is going to get an a#rse kicking so magnificent he won’t be able to descend into the ionosphere before Tuesday. He should be sacked outright and Chris Mitchell should be doing it now, before Dennis can inflict even more damage on the paper’s already tattered reputation. Whether he does so is a matter for his own conscience and (whether or not Dennis is on an AWA).
As someone who takes pride in my profession, even if the rest of the world thinks we journos should be eating worms with the pollies and the used car salesmen, I’m just the tiniest bit p#ssed off.
# 186 Glen Says: November 9th, 2007 at 8:42 pm
This aint student services there Tim. When you have children that are in imminent danger, you don’t stand in line and hope you’re lucky.
You’re showing you age.
Most of those refugees were fleeing Saddam Hussein, or the Taliban. Who were the bad guys, right?
What? Im sorry? Oh, the people they tortured were the bad guys?
Mmmmkay.
Christ, Id hate to be a Tory. Imagine having to hold two fundamentally inconsistent positions like that.
What a assinine and irrational existence.
#131 Noocat, and anyone else interested, all the journos at the Oz have the same email address structure.
Last name first name initial @ theaustralian.com.au
as one of your examples shows
Grant Holloway
hollowayg@theaustralian.com.au
They were obviously genuine refugees Damien so i would support them if they made a claim here, but why they didn’t do this before the fall of Saigon and applied at the Australian consulate i don’t know, but that doesn’t matter on the face of it they appear genuine.
I’d read my own posts if I were you Glen.
Even the most hopeless liars and crooks can maintain internal consistency if they concentrate a bit.
The problem for the Libs with this outlier poll is not that it is an outlier as such but that you can get these numbers by conducting a poll in the usual manner. In the past an outlier would be 55 - 45, even 54 -46 but these days such results are seen as probably being on the money. A poll such as this in the past was just unthinkable. Hell, you’d be going to get these figures if you polled safe Labor seats only. So something is definitely going on out there outlier or not.
Glen, you’re language is getting more alarming!
“genuine refugees”
“the only criminals are the que jumpers”
“have no valid claim for humanitarian visas”
You are pathetic Glen, I’m sorry but there’s no other word for it. You don’t want to understand what refugees go through to leave a terrible situation, nor do you wish to see them as humans that deserve dignity and rights. I hope you nor your children ever have to go through what these people have, under their own regimes first, and through detention under Howard subsequently.
Let It End - I stand corrected.
“the only criminals are the que jumpers who are here illegally and have no valid claim for humanitarian visas.”
Glen, even someone with a passing acquaintance with the facts of this issues knows that, by any measures, well over 80% of boat arrivals are found to have valid claims for humanitarian visas.
The immorality of your position is that you acquiesce in visiting real, harsh punishment on the 85% of the arrivals who are innocent in order to deter the 15% who are merely ‘economic refugees’.
I imagine this topic will soon be squashed.
This from the link to Peter Martin’s bit on the charter in my last post, has this sentence which explains why the Libs might be starting to panic:
“Until now Labor has said it wants to make the game fairer. The Coalition had better hope that it means it. Should it lose office and be attempting to campaign from opposition for a decade it’ll need it.”
Wonder if in opposition the Libs will be so happy with the news rules they came up with for debates in parliament, and senate committees?
What goes around…
Oh and for the record could someone remind me how many of the Tampa group were not genuine refugees? Were there any illegals at all in the group?
Exactly GB. Was trying to say same above (not as eloquently)
Here is a petition to encourage ABC’s Lateline to invite Paul Keating and John Hewson to jointly debate the election campaign on the night before election day:
http://www.petitiononline.com/lateline/petition.html
I’ll pass it on to the ABC this time next week. So hopefully we can get 1000 or so signatures in that time.
You need to enter a valid email address, but just check PRIVATE so it doesn’t appear on the actual petition.
Grog at 158. You know, I don’t remember. I remember what I thought at the time was a series of very confusing ads by Singo in 87 (I think), showing a tottering house of cards indicating Liberal divisiveness and was visually a mess. I think the slogan then was ‘If you can’t govern yourself how can you govern the country?’
As I get older (ho hum), I find all manner of strange campaign reminiscences come into my head. Malcolm Fraser’s $2 British milkshake (1983?) - reminding people how dear things were overseas, and how cheap things were here. The notorious fistful of dollars ad (80?). Incentivation (under Hewson). The white picket fence (Howard in one of his early incarnations?). Speaking of Singo, I’m old enough to remember his ads for the Libs in 74 or 75, when he had some Estonian woman bagging the ALP as commos. “Hawke’s all talk” (83) was a shocker. “Shame Fraser, Shame” (75) was amusing self-indulgence as were the lyrics (”How could you have the gall/to put your country up against the wall?”).
‘Lead On, Liberal’ (80?) was an odd one. They made the unfortunate error of running translated versions of that ad in the ethnic press - particularly unfortunate when they ran it in the German-Australian paper.
Ahhh, memories… I only regret not remembering any of the DLP ads from the 60s and 70s. They were done by John Clemenger, so would have been of a high standard, and would be bedwettingly funny now.
Glen - ‘que’ jumpers ? Are you asking why they need to sidestep the normal visa process? It is a good question and more often than not deserving of our charity.
(That is even assuming that ‘economic refugees’ are a bad thing; I thought conservatives were supposed to support individuals efforts to improve their economic situation, but what would I know?)
Jasmine I’m not sure why you’re dragging me into this argument, but if you’re interested in my views here they are:
“For the Australian people to have confidence in the administration of our immigration system, it must be built upon rigorous procedures and processes, which protect our national interest and our national borders. We must also treat individuals fairly and with dignity. To treat individuals fairly requires that they are dealt with in a speedy and efficient manner, where decisions are based on fair procedures and subject to appropriate review. Protecting our national interest and our national borders requires zero tolerance for people smugglers, who will be subject to harsher penalties to deter their activities and stop unauthorised boat arrivals. It is also in our national interest to conduct ourselves as a good international citizen, to do our fair share for those who are subject to persecution and who need protection. Labor will ensure that our borders are secure and that the processing and detention of asylum seekers is fair. Labor will administer a fair and flexible refugee and humanitarian program. Labor will end the so-called “Pacific Solution”, with its huge cost to Australian taxpayers.”
Ah Glen, one moment you are agreeing there an no ‘queues’ for refugees and then in the next comment are calling them ‘queue jumpers’ - so which one is it? It is not illegal to seek asylum - and it doesn’t matter whether you seek asylum via a boat or a plane. The point is a country of 20 million people and a ‘trillion dollar economy’ as the Libs keep reminding us can more than cope with a few thousand asylum seekers.
And just to get back on topic. The Morgan poll does seem just a wee bit too good to be anywhere near true.
203
Glen Says:
November 9th, 2007 at 8:55 pm
I have never tried to demonise genuine refugees as criminals
….
Of course you have, Glen. You are complict crimes carried out against the homeless, the stateless, the vulnerable and exploited. But it’s alright: it’s politics as practiced by the genius of Kirribilli. Go ahead: defend the indefensible.
anyone remember the last election to have a theme song?
Is anyone concerned that the election is on during schoolies… as alot of the Labor voting young are going to be too busy get pissed, high or shagged to bother to vote?
Do I have to remind about my “cognitive dissonance” lecture from yesterday Glen? Have you learnt nothing? For you, the Rodent is a hero and you believe in him. When he does something disgusting , it makes you feel bad, as you are a normal human. Yu don’t like feeling bad so you hace to do something. Instead of changing yur opinion about Howard, you choose to vilify the victims of Ratkings actions. If they were illegal, queue jumping aliens, what he did was not so bad. I hope I don’t have to go through this again.
VoterBoy - speaking of ads, I just saw the latest Lib offering on Ch 9 here … apparently the Labor party is soft on crime (picture of the Premier, M. Brumby). But Fran Bailey is most definitely NOT soft on crime. She’s tough on crime! Spouse said ‘that’s a joke’ (she is NOT a poll bludger). I haven’t seen one of these yet, although our PB colleagues have been reporting them. I mean, are they running for the local council? What are these clowns thinking? (sorry wrong word).
I say again, bullshit.
Campaigning on crime is another sign of barrel scraping by Team Rodent.
This is because it can be turned around too easily - if crime is such an issue, why hasn’t Howard done anything about it in 11 years?
Remember harder, VBoOtW
Incentivation, like the white picket fence, was part of Howard’s ‘Future Directions’ for the 1987 election.
Interestingly, Howard has managed to fulfil much of FD by niw. Except of course the complete dismantling of Medicare.
But Howard doesn’t have to announce his policies before an election, we all know what he stands for…
OFF TOPIC, but Glen said
I used to think the same as you. It sounds perfectly reasonable, until you get the facts. If you want to educate yourself and you’re not afraid of your world-view changing, here is a good place to start http://www.chilout.org/information/index.html
Thank you Adam, I just like you views, don’t agree with them all by a long shot, but always interested? You don’t object to that surely?
George just because you country is crappy does not make it ok to come to our country illegally, they are not refugees. I am not going to go into definitions but suffice to say there are specific definitions on this matter and if they don’t meet the guidelines they aren’t refugees.
Martin i do not deny the figures and I do support our refugee quotas and i do support taking our fair share but i do not support the proposition that economic ‘refugees’ should just be allowed in because they live in a poor country, its tough but i mean we’ve already got poor ppl in Australia we should help before we help economic ‘refugees’.
George you and i differ plain and simple, but if you want an open door immigration policy that’s your prerogative not mine.
Jasmine my position has been to borrow a phrase ‘clear cut’ (using appropriate hand gestures) i support taking in refugees, but i only support this if it is done through normal channels like the UN or through consulates, if it is done otherwise then they should be sent to Naru. However they should have their claims processed much faster than is current, i concede that point.
Let me be clear about this i didn’t start this debate, this was started by left wingers trashing Howard over his immigration policy, unfairly IMHO.
ShowsOn Says:
November 9th, 2007 at 9:00 pm
Here is a petition to encourage ABC’s Lateline to invite Paul Keating and John Hewson to jointly debate the election campaign on the night before election day:
thanks shows on… great idea..
John Button - I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again…
I pine for the days when we had real leaders - people who genuinely wanted to make Australia a better place - people who had a vision for the country as something better than it was.
Not everyone agreed with him (obviously very many did not agree with him), but no-one can honestly suggest that Keating (and many of his bintage) didn’t have that vision.
The current mob don’t compare… it’s very sad.
M’sieur CL. Good to catch up with you this morning. The Lib ads seem to be caught in a spiral of hopelessness and despair. Might I suggest they dig out the Michael Leunig cartoon from Nation Review, circa 75, which showed a man staring at a billboard on which was emblazoned the slogan. “Vote Liberal for a Bigger Dick.”
That might help them. But I don’t think anything else will.
Glen
many of your arguments seem forceful on the surface - I just don’t think you’d have those views if you got more involved and learnt more about the situation these people are in.
I say that because I believe you are a decent guy.
M
Actually, my mistake - Incentivation was indeed a slogan before the 1987 election, but Future Directions and its fence was not released until 1988.
More trouble re Haneef.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/11/09/2087010.htm?section=justin
There are big differences between economic ‘refugees’ who are ‘Que jumpers’ and genuine refugees, just so you all know.
Diogenes i don’t have to be called crazy on this blog for my views it speaks very low of your character for you to do this. Diogenes if you have read my posts throughout poliblogger there are several things about Howard and the Tories i don’t like so stop saying im a bloody sycophant who has nothing bad to say about the Coalition because it aint so joe!
I’m just the tiniest bit p#ssed off
LOL Ms Twain, be it ever so small do I detect a grudging acknowledgement at last of what many on here have put to you previously.
Unfortunately Shannas is typical of what passes for journalistic integrity these days. Be it due to partisanship, laziness or ineptness it is nonetheless incompetent and would not be tolerated in any other profession.
I believe even used car salesman have some standards they aspire to but I am yet to find any for Shanahan.
“Let me be clear about this i didn’t start this debate, this was started by left wingers trashing Howard over his immigration policy, unfairly IMHO.”
Yes Glen, and it still stands. Just so we are clear:
1. There are no ques to jumn
2. It is not illegal to be a refugee
3. People who are fleeing from persecution and violence should be not treated, and are not criminals.
4. Howard has used refugees, immigrants, race and minority groups time and time again to dog whistle.
You Glen support Howard. Spin it anyway you like, his immigration policies stink like a fresh turd.
Martin B @ 232. Thanks for the slap - I should have known that.
Ooh, a Haiku (of sorts) has come upon me…
Incentivate
Adumbrate
Sixth Rate
(Rise in a Row)
or, to keep it simple
Incentivate
Adumbrate
Third Rate
Call me foolish Glen but I think to be genuine refugees as almost all of them were, almost all of them Glen, they need a little more than that. Again you are vilifying them, spreading deliberate lies for political purposes, not just with a lack of facts but running entirely contrary to the known facts.
It is either very very very illinformed and you are not that, or it deserves another characterisation.
Why should genuine refugees be sent anywhere other than given refuge … notice the funny similarity between refugee and refuge, you might think they were related words. Oh and that locking them up like animals for years and years and years gets close to finding a cell of humanity in you is at least some relief.
I think you find with people seeking refugee they show up somewhere and ask for it. I don’t think you get to paint a white line and say line up there and then some how absolve yourself of your responsibility.
And anyway don’t you want them here to be exploited with women and young under workchoices … great for containing wage inflation, if you get enough.
Clearly an outlier, but everything we’ve seen in the last week points to 55/45 being the most likely result, somewhere between 85 and 100 seats to the ALP, I hope!!
Slightly off track,but maybe someone can point me in the right direction. A favourite tactic of the mythomaniac midget from Bennelong seems to have been to starve the States of funds for education, health, infrastructure etc, while berating them, and by implication or sometimes directly, federal Labor, for alleged failures in these areas. He and “Lou” have also obfuscated the issue of debt by putting out the furphy that the Commonwealth now has no debt, and by claiming that the GDP is not a Commonwealth tax since it replaces a number of other , mainly State, taxes and levies.
I have been trying, so far unsuccessfully, to compare the total levels of state government funding, from all sources, (as a percentage of GDP), in representative periods (say 1993-1995, under Keating and 2003-2005 under Howard/Costello). I think this might just show that State funding has significantly reduced, however try as I might I can’t seem to access the data.Can anyone help?
If it doesn’t show this then maybe the States have been more inefficient in the Howard years, although I don’t think so.
VoterBoy, thank you muchly, I remember that cartoon now you mention it. Now there was a rag! (Nation Review, that is). Sort of a pre-internet poll bludger, really.
thanks grog , i was just wondering if it was still in the mix , i can remember it being a bit of a big deal couple elections ago, if i remember rightly the libs beat labor over the head with it , so i can understand why labor want it changed
strangely costello has’nt mentioned it yet
George we agree on 2 and 3 (providing they meet the conditions of the UN charter) of your list in full. We just differ on points 1 and 4 that’s all. We’re half way there so i don’t see why there is this vendetta against me for my views on immigration.
Michael, The vision will begin from the 25th onwards. The Libs aren’t big on vision - “comfy” is the extent of Howard’s ‘vision’ for Australia.
Rudd will warm to the role of PM, by the time of the 2010 election the country will be shudder with memory of the time when Australia was at best deputy to an incompetent President.
238
VoterBoy of Over the Water Says:
November 9th, 2007 at 9:09 pm
M’sieur CL. Good to catch up with you this morning. The Lib ads seem to be caught in a spiral of hopelessness and despair. Might I suggest they dig out the Michael Leunig cartoon from Nation Review, circa 75, which showed a man staring at a billboard on which was emblazoned the slogan. “Vote Liberal for a Bigger Dick.”
….
Bring back Leunig: he works on so many levels….:)
Where’s the queue in Iraq Glen? Or Afghanistan?
When’s the next ACN?
You can’t argue this with Glen. He LIKES the fact he was played for a sucker. He LIKES the fact Howard said none of the Tampa refugees would ever set foot on Australian soil, but now 400 of them live here, another 100 or so live in New Zealand, and 100 more live in the United States.
Glen LOVES being duped, misled, liked to, hoodwinked, and bamboozled. Whats more, he supports a political party that likes doing things things to him.
It’s a parasitic relationship.
Dario ask the Immigration Department they’ll tell you how you can apply legally.
What’s really sad is that we are even having this debate about refugees
There was a time when such topics were above politics
The current government has been in so long now - and they’re not all bad - but We’ve forgotten how things were, I think.
Things have changed so much, that people have forgotten what it was like…
Been there I have never done it from source documents but AM on ABC one morning cited stats that showed payments to the States, including GST, as a proportion of GDP were at 30 year lows, and that Commonwealth revenue was the biggest it has even been both in nominal terms and as a proportion of GDP (I think this was excluding the GST but it was a while ago I might be wrong, it might include the GST).
But essentially if those statistics are right the State have been providing a standard of health, education and other infrastructure that has ever been improving (admittedly the standard demanded has grown much faster than the actual growth of standard) with less and less money over time. In health in particular given the aging population the States have done an absolutely amazingly good job.
The real question is exactly what has Howard done with the 1000’s of billions he has deprived the states of?
This article sums up who the AB C are cheering for
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/11/09/2087163.htm?section=justin
Good news everybody! Morgan says Labor are leading 62-38, so Labor’s vote must have finally peaked. I must send this message back 993 years in time to our good friends at “The Australian”. I mean, it’s now the year 3000 and they are STILL waiting for the polls to narrow!
glen
has earnt his pay derailing analysis of the poll result
well done lib hq
Glen, you are accepting Howard’s view that there a ques to jump - wrong, I don’t accept this and the facts aren’t on your side:
“Fact: In Iraq and Afghanistan, there are no queues for people to jump. Australia has no diplomatic representation in these countries and supports the International coalition of nations who continue to oppose these regimes and support sanctions against them. Therefore, there is no standard refugee process where people wait in line to have their applications considered. Few countries between the Middle East and Australia are signatories to the 1951 Refugee Convention, and as such asylum seekers are forced to continue to travel to another country to find protection.
People who are afraid for their lives are fleeing from the world’s most brutal regimes including the Taliban in Afghanistan and Sadaam Hussein’s dictatorship in Iraq. Antonio Domini, Head of UN Humanitarian Program in Afghanistan, states that Afghanistan is one of the most difficult places in the world in which to survive.”
As far as 4 is concerned, don’t take my word for it, that’s fine - but it’s been analysed to death by many that Howard is the craftiest dog whistling superhero of them all.
http://www.presscouncil.org.au/
For those who want to complain about the latest Shananagan.
I sent this to the 2 Murdochistas per the email addresses someone kindly posted before:
{Dear Sir
I am absolutely disgusted at the blatant propaganda of Mr Shanahan’s article November 10 on a purported submission from the car industry, to the Government, now totally debunked by an article in the Age:
http://www.theage.com.au/news/federal-election-2007-news/car-industry-refutes-report/2007/11/09/1194329492589.html
You may think that acting like Pravda, or the “Government Gazette” is a normal function of a Murdoch publication in blind support for John Howard and his government, but in my opinion this sort of disinformation is most debilitating to our democracy. There are standards you know, of which you are well aware, of which I will be reminding the Press Council, pertaining to this article in particular.
Sir, you should be ashamed, and you should pull that article.}
Full name address etc…
Glen, I have never called you crazy. Misguided maybe. Everyone uses cognitive dissonance, its a universal human characteristic. But it is used most frequently and in its more extreme forms when people cannot give up their belief systems which are strongly held for whatever reason.
Possum keeps it all nice and steady. Just go with the flow. Morgan Shmorgan whatever happens el Rodenty is finished. Too late brothers. Dear Denny really screwed that one up and the Age made a real killing. Smirk and Stocking man screaming 7,000 unemployed. This is just plain crap and the majority know it. If Ruppy gets hold of this garbage he will roast little Denny. It is a bad look for the GG and any time you ruffle Ruppy’s feathers watch out. Be very afraid Dennis. Love to be a buzzy little wall fly. Interest rates not factored in yet. Howard looking like a stunned mullet while a woman collapses. Great for moral of our forces if you panic under pressure. Though not as serious sorta reminiscent of Bush boy when told of 9/11. Gillard slaughtered Shrek, here summary was brilliant and should be used late in the campaign. The negativity towards Jullia is pure sexism and its time to get over it and give credit where credit is due. Kevin is accumulating a swathe of negatives to throw at the Rodent late in the election when it really counts. Patience, patience patience. So far his card handling has been pretty spot on. Question is when will the coalition shrillness turn to resignation. Its a commmin. Revenge is sweet.
Is it possible that the F2F poll is picking up something systematic rather than being simply an outlier or an error? I suggest that perhaps people think it is “cooler” to vote Labor. In a face to face poll people might be swayed to go with the flow or say what is expected of them whereas in a phone poll they are less inclined to? So potentially the poll is telling us about the strength of the Labor brand.
Just a thought.
Michael 237: Totally agree with your sentiments. There was even some good guys in the Coalition.
Keating still has vision. It is a pity that the ALP (and the majority of the public) still see him as an electoral liability.
“4. Howard has used refugees, immigrants, race and minority groups time and time again to dog whistle.”
1987: Asian immigration should be reduced
1996: ‘For all of us’
1997: Pauline Hanson is just enjoying Freedom of speech
1998: Backyards are under threat from Wik.
2001: We don’t want people like that in Australia
And I’m sure there are others I have forgotten.
That is why I detest the policies of Hewson, Costello and Turnbull, but I am a Howard-hater.
Cynic i did no such thing in fact i started this post talking about the poll, if you read the posts i merely responded to some outlandish left wing rubbish that Howard uses refugees and race to win elections, and hey presto the left started a debate i didn’t even want. Go figure??
George then in that situation there would be other countries they could go and apply for refugee status other than Australia.
{Did I just see on the ABC news Costello refer to Kevin Andrews as “the good Kevin”? }
That was classic television that launch of Kevin Andrews campaign.
It looked like the only people there under the age of 90 were Costello and Andrews.
I bet Andrews is hoping they can hold on for another 15 days so he at least gets some votes.
259
Frank Calabrese Says:
November 9th, 2007 at 9:19 pm
This article sums up who the AB C are cheering for..
…..
In an odd way, Frank, I think it shows the ABC reflect the sentiments of lots of voters: it is all becoming a bit wearing. It’s gone on for so long and the more inane moments are the only newsworthy parts. It does show how hard it’s going to get for the Liberals from now on: no-one is paying attention and most basically just wish the election had been held weeks ago.
Folks, while I don’t want to get into a sh*tfight on this, I just want to make an observation about Glen’s modus operandi, based on this exchange on refugees and a lengthy and bitter one he and I had the other day about Cornelia Rau.
1. Glen starts off by making some bullish and arguably offensive statement, sometimes punctuated by terms such as ’scumbag’.
2. People respond, often equally bullish, but usually with far more factual detail.
3. Glen then claims he is being demonised, and cranks up the rhetoric.
4. People respond with an even more forensic dissection of his comments.
5. Glen then claims that there is very little difference between his stand and that of his critics (me-tooing?) and implores heaven to explain why he is being demonised.
6. Return to Step 2, and repeat cycle. Ad infinitum, ad nauseum.
And Glen - no correspondence will be entered into.
Glen, no metooism here mate! There’s a whole social conscience divide between libs and labor that you just don’t get - blood on your hands and shame on the libs for letting it happen
Glen….
Look, i’m not sure if you’re familiar with either the Act or the Regulations, but pretty much with refugees, rocking up in a boat is the correct channels. There is nothing illegal or even improper about coming to Australia and applying for asylum. Anyone can do it. For example, if my grandmother in england wanted to, she could come here and apply….
The concept of ‘illegal’ refugees cannot exist until they are refused asylum. At that point they are considered ‘unlawful’ and we deport them.
“George then in that situation there would be other countries they could go and apply for refugee status other than Australia.” Yeah Glen, I’m sure Iraqis fleeing could go to Afghanistan… keep going, you’re doing a wonderful job of showing how intolerant Liberals can be.
Glen, Glen, Glen. Guess we’ll never be able to convince you that just about all the asylum-seekers were subsequently judged to be refugees. Now I know why the others keep responding to your baseless statements. Queue jumpers? Which queue were they supposed to be in? We invaded I-R-A-Q because of Saddam yet we incarcerate those fleeing Saddam. The boats stopped coming because the Indonesian authorities started cooperating with ours. The boats are stopped from leaving Indonesia. Methinks we must have provided a lot of “aid” to Indonesia.
You are correct Yo Ho Ho but then they must be genuine and have proof that they are refugees and if they are we should help them as much as we can but if they don’t or if they are economic refugees/que jumpers they should be deported, that’s my position.
Marktwain - Do you drink carlton ?
John Button - I think there are still many good people in the coalition - unfortunately they’re silenced.
Interesting to see tonight on Channel 7, Lib ads which are bagging the State Government (nothing new there this campaign) then going on about “wall to wall” ALP governments but at the end, not promoting the Libs as a whole but solely promoting both Christopher Pyne (Sturt) and Southcott (Boothby). Looks like both these seats in their polling are causing some distress in Coalition circles!
#262 George - spot on!
Lindsay i don’t know about all but i know a lot were genuine refugees fleeing from persecution in their homelands i fully accept this point and i have never denied this fact. I’ve watched a bit of a SBS doco on some of them in New Zealand. The system worked, they were proven to be genuine refugees and they were helped to the utmost.
Glen,
I think you’ll find that actually occurs. For example, of the people aboard the Tampa, i believe 1 of them was considered not to be a genuine refugee. And was deported.
That we spent millions of dollars around the pacific, broke international law and needlessly demonised a vulnerable group of people etc seems like a giant waste of time given that DIAC would’ve followed the same protocol as i outlined before.
I haven’t seen Antony Green on this site much recently. Has the ABC banned him from contributing after serious allegations of bias on this site?
George, actually alot of Iraqis have gone to into Syria to apply for refugee status, why would they go to Afghanistan?
Michael…you are right again…..that is why they need to lose big time in this election so the more decent ones are heard.
243
Let It End
I’ll happily raise the white flag to you in a debate about the worth of The Australian’s political commentary. It is a disgrace, Shanahan should be sacked and I reckon that a lot of the w#nkers currently imbibing down at the Evil Star at the moment know it.
But no, Shanahan is not typical of journalism today. He’s typical of a type of journalist who has been around forever and a day. (Read up on the career of William Randolph Hearst and you’ll get my point.) If he was as left-wing biased as he is right-wing, I doubt I’d hear a peep out of many here.
That said, I do wish he’d just far cough. He makes my brain hurt.
272
VoterBoy of Over the Water Says:
November 9th, 2007 at 9:24 pm
Folks, while I don’t want to get into a sh*tfight on this, I just want to make an observation about Glen’s modus operandi, based on this exchange on refugees and a lengthy and bitter one he and I had the other day about Cornelia Rau.
…
And I would add that this method has positives in it for Glen. He is the centre of attention, and is afforded the opportunity to deliver endless volumes of lib-spin, all in the guise of blog-freedom. It is pure sabotage.
Jasmine 258
‘The real question is exactly what has Howard done with the 1000’s of billions he has deprived the states of?’
I think it’s pretty clear that in the past he has used it to buy re-election. This time it’s not going to work!
The only thing which makes this election important is the repudiation of John Howard’s methods. It is the last chance for John Howard to lose - the last chance to prove that you can win votes as easily by being like Peter Andren as you can by being like John Howard.
That makes it important. After this election, nothing matters…
not long now: jubilation is coming
“George, actually alot of Iraqis have gone to into Syria to apply for refugee status, why would they go to Afghanistan?” - No Glen, they haven’t “applied” they’ve simply entered Syria and now there is an enormous humitarian crisis brewing with many living in terrible conditions. Regardless, Australia’s immigration policy implemented by Howard is a disgrace.
Have a look at Adam’s graphs:
http://psephos.adam-carr.net/countries/a/australia/polls.shtml
The Morgan face to face is doing its own thing and has a quite definite trend *upwards*.
Now given that it may not be a good predictor of the actual outcome, the question is, what *is* it measuring? Even when all is said and done, I’d love to know what the germ of truth is behind this beasty. Maybe, just maybe, the other polls have missed something?
Again, does anyone know when ACN is out???
Grog - next friday i think
Blindoptimist, let me get this straight, my free speech (yes i know we have no such right in Australia) and an alternative view to the ‘we love Rudd’ atmosphere on this blog is somehow sabotage, that’s just stupid blindoptimist. I might be a Liberal member but i don’t get paid by them or told to do anything for them, except hand out how to vote cards on the 24th so let’s just drop this insane witch hunt that i am a troll?
I am only the centre of discussion because you lefties never get the chance to debate a right winger and you are sick of listening to our side of politics so you trash the bejesus out of me.
Michael….I hope your wish will be granted in 15 days….it’ll be good for all.
Trevor, if someone like nicole Cornes can win a seat in this election then maybe 62-38 is underestimating labors lead.
George actually they have from Syria applied for refugee status in other countries from there. Yes there are lots of them in Syria who have no intention of applying for refugee status in other countries but some have.
“And I would add that this method has positives in it for Glen. He is the centre of attention, and is afforded the opportunity to deliver endless volumes of lib-spin, all in the guise of blog-freedom. It is pure sabotage.”
blindoptimist and VoterBoy of Over the Water, I guess you’re right. No way I’m gonna make him see that he is supporting filth at the end of the day (he’s probably a Lib plant anyway). I end communication with him now - sorry to everyone if I’ve taken away from other discussions
Grog
A couple of blogger here earlier were talking about an ACN tommorrow…
Sean do you want to start the Ms Cornes debate again? Do you really want me to respond to your post. I will AT LENGTH. *GROWLS*
Glen. Finish uni. Travel. Raise a family.
Then talk about these subjects. Because all you’re doing is proving that you’re an ignorant school-boy debater, about subjects for which you know absolutely nothing.
Stay out of the hate game. You are too young, and too immature to really understand the very real feelings that people have for this subject. Chalk it up as a loss, and move on.
This proves how lame the Liberal party is - they have to pay people to hand out ‘How to Vote’ cards.
Let me guess, if your hand hurts at the end of the day you’ll get physio, then claim it as an income tax deduction.
Didn’t get the previous debate Jasmine but would take a lot of persuading….
I think Glen’s doing a good job. Good forbid that we’d all agree on everything.
Showson, that would be a WorkCover claim. Something that the unions won for the workers, so Glen wouldn’t make a claim as a matter of priciple.
Pi what did we talk about regarding not resorting to personal and defamatory attacks on people?
When you go through that rout in debating someone, you’ve lost the debate.
It’s sad that you have to sink to such methods when debating people ah well.
Pi don’t assume you know anything about my life because you don’t, so take your defamation elsewhere would you please.
Glen smacks of someone who has got most of his opinions from his parents..
“SATIRISTS from Lahore to Washington gave Pakistan’s embattled President Pervez Musharraf simple advice on how to deflect the US government’s criticism of his imposition of emergency rule - capture Osama bin Laden.” Perhaps the Rodent could go undercover in Afghanistan and save his sorry rotting carcass.
308
Glen Says:
November 9th, 2007 at 9:45 pm
Pi what did we talk about regarding not resorting to personal and defamatory attacks on people?When you go through that rout in debating someone, you’ve lost the debate.
It’s sad that you have to sink to such methods when debating people ah well. Pi don’t assume you know anything about my life because you don’t, so take your defamation elsewhere would you please.
…
yaaaawwwwwnnnnnnn
Sean - perhaps. I suspect have too… although 15 years later my father is still left wing of me (then again, he’s left wing of bob brown).
Sean @ 298. I think you & others are too harsh on Nicole Cornes. I think she may not necessarily be the best candidate, but it wouldn’t be correct to say that she couldn’t aplty represent Boothby.
After all, a polished MP (e.g. Southcott, Pyne) can often be absolutely useless in serving his or her electorate & is onlly trying to climb the internal ladder of their party.
I would go as far as to say she is quite representative of the average Boothby voter - she’s just an average person, with normal concerns.
Its too easy to give her the bimbo tag & ignore the fact that she shares the concerns of most of us, & given that she probably has no ambitions to be a minister, would serve the electorate far better than a more ambitious MP.
ShowsOn you are starting a war of words here.
I said i don’t get paid for anything!
That includes handing out htvc’s on election day, i do it out of my own time and i enjoy doing it for free.
My position is quite simply this, that on all the evidence presented Ms Cornes is probably in the upper quartile in terms of qualities we want first time candidates to have. Not a top scholar like our Adam, probably not even a future Minister, but clearly and definitely in the top 25% of candidates in terms of what she brings to her campaign.
She has a public profile, she has a law degree, she has a weak labor pedigree. We have one of these media draftees in the labor party in WA, but without the law degree. We call him Premier. But he wasn’t a woman. Our premier did proper political journalism (and we know from the blog how GREATLY they are respected here) and appealed to our political class, whereas Ms Cornes has the nerve to have actually written stuff normal Australians read. The cheek.
So why is she constantly vilified, attacked and abused? I think you can guess my answer.
Is Glen a young university student?
Glen you can answer that
You know guys, you don’t have to respond to every comment by everyone.
315 - she’s become a target so she’ll keep being a target until the election is over. is that not the way the media works? it’s better than no porfile, perhaps???
poor ol’ george newhouse in wentworth - the local press here portrays him as a bit of a baffoon - and yet i suspect he is quite genuine
John Button, just been off dining with my wife, (incidently I am in big strife with her due to my time on this blog, she says she would be happier if I was looking at porn, to steal a phrase from TWW Poll Bludger is porn for us).
Any hoo your nom de plume is great and I am sure the real J. Button would be proud.
No Dazzamack i can tell you that i am not a university student.
William.. don’t spose we can have a separate thread for earnest scientific analysis, and another for religous bickering?
Fagin
Ok. Sent off a strongly worded e-mail to Mitchell. Called upon him to resign for stuffing up a national newspaper. Urged him to look up B in dictionary and find BALANCE. So be it …
Tampa is the reason why I started taking an interest in politics. Hansonism didn’t. We Chinese all over the world can ignore being racially villified. We keep our heads down and just work harder. But Tampa just made my blood boil.
Did anyone notice they cut the responces to Shanahan’s blog at 3:40 - that wouldn’t be around the same time The Age story broke?
Good Glen,
I am very glad that all these ppl here aren’t debating important issues with some misguided uni flake. As long as you have some life experience, you are a worthy opponent/enemy
So now you as well as Howard are trying to morph into Christian Metz.
No, what you had written implied that handing out How to Vote cards was the only thing you got paid for.
But I realise your writing is often only a loose approximation of what you actually mean.
re 312
Bob Brown isn’t left wing. He’s a centrist. He identifies the problems and solutions from a conservative point of view.
The reality will prove that much more radical solutions are required to ensure that the human species lasts more than another 200 years, maybe 100.
Candidate Nicole Cornes: she deserves support and encouragement. Running for office is not so easy. Defeating an incumbent is always tough. I’ve only seen her on tv once or twice and she is clearly not experienced. But she’s having a go, which is certainly more than I’m doing. She is an easy target, maybe, but she will learn and I’m sure will make a contribution if she gets over the line.
Stan S
Cheers mate. Lady Button feels the same way as your wife…..but she draws the line with porn. She thinks it is a tad inappropriate.
198,
Thanks much for posting that Lefty :):):) Keating is, was and always will be the best and as I seldom read the SMH and when I do, only online; would otherwise have missed that :).
MarkTwain:
I’ll happily raise the white flag to you in a debate about the worth of The Australian’s political commentary.
Well can’t ask for more than that of you Ms Twain as the GG has always been the major grist for my mill. I’ll also wave a white hankie that not ALL journos are as bad as the GG, Mega excepted from that critique of course. As we have now met half way can we agree to a truce then
If he was as left-wing biased as he is right-wing, I doubt I’d hear a peep out of many here.
Umm, yes you would, I don’t fancy loonies of either persuasion. I am not brain dead so prefer journos to do their jobs, report the facts of the story, so I can form my own opinion. When it comes to newspapers, I won’t pay for journos opinions, I will pay for the facts behind the story.
Jasmine, I really hate having to repeat myself but she DOES NOT HAVE A LAW DEGREE. She’s still studying for one and I’m guessing if she gets elected she never will get one.
I am voting for Nicole…I want to get rid of Howard and his morally bankrupt government…simple as that and I know alot of people (men and women) in Boothby who think the same. Nicole Cornes is probably ignoring the media cause they have crucified her. The media pack had a field day on a new candidate, and because that new candidate already had a profile, and is a woman they went for the jugular and subjected her to a level of scrutiny that other new candidates have not had to face. Andrew Southcott is useless and lazy, i would much rather Nicole.
And a thread for my Keating V Hewson on Lateline petition?
http://www.petitiononline.com/lateline/petition.html
I could bribe you with a $20 donation.
Correct and that’s why Howard is going down. Only two more weeks and this government will be history and it’s views irrelevant.
Oi Sean, lay off Nicole. She’s alright.
316
Dazzamack from Perth Says:
November 9th, 2007 at 9:49 pm
Is Glen a young university student?
he is the man from crosby/textor, dazzamack: the devil-in-cyberdrag
I know you’ll hate me for posting this, oh well what the hay you hate me anyway so meh!
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB119456012891887075.html?mod=googlenews_wsj
Wall Street Journal - ‘Home Truths’
“Prime Minister John Howard finds himself with an unusual problem: His management of Australia’s economy has, by some lights, been too successful. GDP growth is strong, unemployment is at historic lows, and commodity exports are booming. Most other politicians facing a tough re-election fight would consider that good news.”
“Mr. Rudd has already offered voters a plan to subsidize localities to reduce zoning red tape and build more infrastructure such as sewers and water mains. He’d also offer tax-advantaged savings plans to first-time home buyers saving up for down payments. Neither idea is good — one would see the federal government, and thus homeowning taxpayers, subsidizing local inefficiency rather than simply eliminating it, while the other would serve mainly to prop up house prices by indirectly subsidizing higher down payments. But Mr. Howard hasn’t presented an alternative of his own.”
Sounds like its from Dennis himself don’t it?
Glen,
Que jumpers are part of the winter clothing range at this shop http://www.cue.com.au/
Cue Jumpers are available at reduced prices during the end of winter sale. Of course, that’s if you’re into women’s fashions.
The boat people who arrive on Australia’s shores, are refugees under the 1951 Convention Relating to the Status of Refugees. For more details, visit http://www.unhcr.org/publ.html It is 56 pages of informative reading. Enjoy!
OK diogenes I read differently but I’ll take your word for it. So how short of her law degree is she?
LOL - are those labor’s policies?
# 308 Glen Says: November 9th, 2007 at 9:45 pm
For a university student Tim, you seem strangely void of understanding of the word ‘defamation’. But in the grand scheme of things, your mock offense is kind of touching, but really kind of pathetic.
Because really, you’re just a student liberal playing debate, about subjects for which people have seen their children and family die horrible deaths because of the demonization that is perpetuated by the people you support. Make no mistake about it boyo… I’ve said it to the face of many people, exactly what I’m telling you now, and I’d say it to anyones face that perpetuated your very immature and ignorant beliefs.
If you can’t handle being identified with the people that do these horrible things to human beings, you should stop talking about the subject.
Diogenes @ 332
SO WHAT?
For South Australians:
There is a “strong chance” that Rudd will be at Thorndon park tomorrow between 9:30 - 10:30.
As I sip red wine and eat penne cabonara, cooked in my inner-city slum kitchen (not one of Latham’s beloved McMansions), I have been thinking about Glen.
I am on record as being strongly in favour of people like Glen and ESJ participating in this blog, and do feel that they are capable of intelligent political analysis, even if I don’t agree with all their views.
Those who criticise Glen for being young, or a student, or whatever (I don’t know who he is, and it doesn’t really matter), need to realise that most people who blog are, in fact, young. I was young once too, and had views that differ from those that I had today. But when I was young, I had passion about politics, and was convinced my views were right….and I’m sure that applies to John Howard, Kevin Rudd and just about everyone who’s in politics now.
The point I’m getting to is that I’m intrigued about why there aren’t more Glens and ESJs on this site. I also note that most comments on most blogs around town are more pro-Labor than pro-Liberal.
The conclusion I’ve come to is that there aren’t all that many young people who are going to vote Liberal at this election. And if they don’t, Labor will win easily, no matter how many billion dollars are being given to pensioners.
And don’t get me wrong - I’m much closer to being a pensioner than a uni student, so I’m all for pork for fossils.
Pi, happy to shout you a coffee any day
After today’s extraordinary events, Morgan’s numbers and Howard’s shopping centre misadventure, we now know why that woman collapsed:
She fainted after seeing a dead Rodent walking!
The Wall Street Journal …another news ltd scandal sheet…i imagine the right wing of the republican party would not need much encouragement to support the grump…
this thread is why pollbludger is good for one’s sanity.
sometimes the inanity of the posts here between rival political party staffers gets a little tedious, but amongst this thread are some terrific posts that make being hooked on this site worthwhile.
thx guys and gals for your input.
who needs the msm.
Just saw one of the ‘tough on crime’ ads. Have the Libs gone mad? Do they think this stuff will move voters? How out of touch are these people?
Ah the WSJ, that paper widley read by those in marginal seats…. Pity his portrait looks more like George Brandis.
331
Let It End
Well, we might just have to agree completely then, LIE. Who’d a thunk.
*who needs the msm for opinion, that is
Glen,
My parents were refugees who bullshitted to get into Australia.
They came on fake papers and lied lied lied, precisely to get around the sanctimonious crap peddled by the then Australian government.
Every refugee at the time knew what you needed to do/say and did the same.
Good on them.
There is no queue There are no rules.
That’s what being a refugee is like.
Grow up!
blindoptimist 337….
so glen is from crosby/textor hey. Well if he was ordered to go on PB by his Exclusive Brethren mates to find some info to help the Libs win this election.. he has failed magnificiently… 2 weeks and he is out of a job.
Someone wanted a theme song for the election. Here’s my candidate:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JFUabzkAjBQ
It was FDR’s campaign song in 1932, and what better pedigree could you want? The song sung to celebrate the election of the greatest progressive democratic leader of the past century.
The Wall Street Journal, while it contains a lot of good journalism, is somewhere to the right of Attila the Hun. Whoever their Australian correspondent is, they are seriously deluded about Australian politics. Unlike the Daily Howard, however, the WSJ is honest about its politics - it’s a Republican businessman’s paper and makes no bones about it.
Seamus @ 181,
{As much as a hate to defend Costello, 48 weeks per year (4 weeks holidays), 5 days per week at $1000 per day does actually add up to $240,000 a year.}
Hey, Seamus, was that a yarn about a brickie laying 1000 bricks per day at $1 per brick.
If so, Hockey was spruking that one a week ago up north, but his brickie was working 7 days a week and earning a half million a year,
Oh, the wonders of workchoices.
Que jumpers? Is Manuel from Fawlty Towers one of these?
If Newspoll is believed, Rudd is going to get about 66% of the 18 - 24 year old vote. That’s about a 10% swing for that demographic to Labor since last election.
But keep in mind 40% of voters are 55+, which is the only demographic the government is leading in. But its lead is only a few percent, so in pure statistical terms it should be considered 50/50.
Pi i didn’t bring up this debate on immigration just so you know, your attacks on me are plainly just childish name-calling ‘you’re a so and so’ very lame and very immature Pi in my books.
“…people have seen their children and family die horrible deaths because of the demonization that is perpetuated by the people you support (Howard).”
Well this is interesting you vile hatred of John Howard goes to the extent to saying he has been responsible for people seeing their families die because of your belief that Howard has somehow demonised asylum seekers?
I’m not sure a Tory regardless of how ‘immature of stupid’ you think we all are would say Hawke or Keating was responsible for people seeing their families die because of them. This is just low base politics from you Pi.
Let’s just stick to this ridicules poll by Morgan, why even Yougov could have more accurate polls and they aren’t even here!
349
HarryH Says:
November 9th, 2007 at 10:02 pm
this thread is why pollbludger is good for one’s sanity.
…..
Yes Harry, a bludge now and then is good for the soul
#345. I think it’s about passion and strongly held views. In 11 years’ time you’ll find passionate right-wingers trying to oust the Labor government. By then some of us on the left may also be hoping for a Liberal government! I have no problem voting for Malcolm Fraser or Petro Georgiou as PM.
Jasmine….the fact she has a law degree is neither here nor there. She has voted for Howard at previous elections. She got the gig cos her famous footballer husband didn’t want it. She clearly has no idea about politics, nor scant understanding of what the Labor party is about. She can barely string two words together.
Whats her record in community service, what are her views on social justice, what does she think of trade unions and their importance, what has she done that would make her a valuable member of the labor party? On the occassions when I’ve seen her asked basic questions she’s replied like an a grade airhead. We don’t need any more people like that in parliament - there’s already enough.
The fact that she’s a women has nothing to do with it and it really gets tedious being accused of sexism whenever criticism is directed at the capacity of a woman.
On the question of whether and by how much Morgan overstates Labor:
I’ve looked at the polls, averaged each month, since the start of 2006. Morgan’s two party preferred ALP vote, based on how people say they will direct preferences in its FTF survey, has averaged about 1.3 percentage points above Nielsen’s. Newspoll has averaged about 1.0 below Nielsen. So Nielsen has, on average, been in the middle. Most months, Morgan has given the highest ALP 2PP vote.
Since Galaxy entered the fray in March this year, it has averaged about 2 points below Nielsen. In the majority of months it has given the lowest ALP 2PP vote.
It appears that since it came into the fray in May, Morgan’s phone survey has been averaging only slightly above Nielsen, though of course it’s less reliable because of the much smaller sample size.
While Antonio at #155 provides a plausible explanation as to why Morgan overstates Labor’s 2PP vote, I’m not sure why the phone polls would have such differences amongst themselves on average.
The divergence between Morgan’s FTF and the other polls in this most recent round is much greater than can be explained by Morgan’s tendency to overstate ALP 2pp, and is clearly an outlier. But the overall pattern of the polls is consistent with the notion that across the population it’s presently 55-45 or even 56-44.
The panic evident in Coalition advertising and rhetoric is also consistent with that notion.
Frank Devine has been quiet. He should write a story on Alexandra.
I know this is too late for this election, but do anyone here know much about this proposed online Fairfax paper, the Perth Leader? Any likelihood that it might be more centrist than the West Australian?
He’s the dead part of Frankenmiranda Devine
Adam 356. The Wall Street Journal itself is not a raucous right-wing paper. It’s editorial/opinion pages are far-right, and this caused some heartache among the news reporters, who did not drag their crazy bias into every story. The paper itself is very respectable. Or certainly was.
Adam, thank you so much. My grandmother used to sing and play that song. She played piano for silent movies and music halls. My father used to sing it as we drove off on holidays in the car, and I can sing it too.
Nothing like a depression to get the optimistic songs going…
355
Dazzamack from Perth Says:
November 9th, 2007 at 10:04 pm
blindoptimist 337….
so glen is from crosby/textor hey. Well if he was ordered to go on PB by his Exclusive Brethren mates to find some info to help the Libs win this election.. he has failed magnificiently… 2 weeks and he is out of a job.
…..
well, they like to fight in the blogosphere as well as the radio stations, news columns and shopping centres of this wide land: at least in here they can gain some kind of a reaction from the unsuspecting blogophiles….but i suspect that win or lose, the glens or this realm will not fade away
Commentary about Australian politics in the O/S press is often an amusing read. I can’t recall the detail but I think there was a piece in Saturday’s Age reprinted from a British newspaper which claimed the Libs were coming back and were favoured to win the election. Had to laugh.
Derek Corbett,
Expect a reply.
I recently sent a complaint to Mitchell regarding the GG’s Newspoll analysis, and urged him to take a look at Possum for a does of polling reality. I received a nasty, caustic, dismissive and sarcastic response. Mitchell informed me that he reads all of the politics blogs every single day. So there you go.
Frank wrote a story involving Viagra on the 2Nov. He simply doesn’t care anymore.
Winston,
The only paper in the UK that seems to give a stuff about Aussie politics is the conservative Telegraph (or should I say Torygraph).
The liberal Guardian/Observer don’t seem to care too much about Rudd or Howard…
Sean @ 363. The fact that she’s not as articulate as others doesn’t mean she has nothing to offer.
Given that few of us are great public speakers, especially under pressure, you’d also be assuming that we also have nothing to offer.
Although not the candidate I would have chosen, I think she IS representative of the general community & would be in a good position to take those everyday concerns to parliament.
Having tried to deal with “career MPs” before over a couple of issues, I realise that they actually have little interest in their electorate, let alone any inclination to discuss genuine concerns.
From the little I’ve seen of her, I suspect that at least she’d give you the time of day, unlike the twats I mentioned before (Pyne, Southcott).
bludging is over for me for now…..cheerio fellow psephomaniacs
Re 356,
Adam Says:
I think that is a little too old, although otherwise appropriate. I was searching out some usable ones today myself and for the moment (still looking in case I get a better one) - I think the winner is this one, imho :):) .
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sogKUx_q7ig
He must be a glutton for punishment. The fact that Kevin Rudd is his son’s godfather gives you some idea of the heat Murdoch must put on his editors.
Jasmine. I think Nicole Cornes is in the last year of law. And Derek, I was trying to correct the commonly held view that she has a law degree and is therefore highly credible (as if a law degree matters anyway, look at the liberal front bench). For God’s sake, she voted for the person she’s running against at the last election. That’s gotta be a first!
Morgan poll reported on ninemsn:
http://news.ninemsn.com.au/article.aspx?id=321505
antonio @ 345
could it be that the overwhelming amount of blog and comment on the net is anti this government is exactly because said people have access to and read the net.
they have access to the truth.
the bulk of Howards remaining support now is among our elderly who are still reading the papers and listening to the radio.
Morgan also reported on news.com.au:
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,22733408-29277,00.html
I need to do the washing up before watching Lateline. Thanks folks, it’s been fun.
LOL, the headline is “Morgan Poll shows Labor with a good lead”
Yeah, 24% lead is ok.
378
Diogenes Says:
November 9th, 2007 at 10:17 pm
Jasmine. I think Nicole Cornes…. voted for the person she’s running against at the last election. That’s gotta be a first!
….
That’s not a problem for me, Diogenes. At least she’s running now! And she voted against Mark Latham - like 65% of the population.
356 Adam
Best First Lady ever http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eleanor_Roosevelt, would have made an outstanding president.
Triffid
Look I might be wrong, but she strikes me as not the sort of person who would be ‘representative of the community’.
And yes, not everyone’s a great speaker but in politics you preferably should have a modicum of speaking/communication skills in addition to some core political values and I’m not sure that she does..
Sean you are right. If the alp win 75 seats and Nicole is one of them I will join your quest for purity and authenticity in candidature and campaign for her to stand down as shockingly unsuitable for the elevated arts practiced in Canberra and elsewhere across our widearsed brown land. Who else have you subjected to the blowtorch and found wanting. Let’s make a list.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22733408-12377,00.html
Morgan on GG
I wonder why they didnt talk about the F2F
Here’s the winning campaign jingle from the 1988 NSW State Election.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w7P59YBoz_o
Here’s the difference with the polls at the moment. I see the Gold Cost poll on the other thread and get p*ssed at the thought the ALP won’t win every seat.
I still think the ALP will only get 80 seats. But then 12 months ago I would have laughed if anyone had suggested I’d use “only” in that last sentence.
The fact that Cornes voted for Howard in 2004 shows she is ignorant on issues that should be important to a Labor candidate. She has no credibility whatsoever and is a complete embarrassment.
If she was in my electorate I would not vote for her. She would get my preferences above the Lib candidate, but she’d be somewhere down the bottom.
Quite interesting that Morgan actually released their F2F given that their telephone poll was pretty much in line with others and that they were so different. He didn’t have to. Unlike the other 3 pollsters Morgan doesn’t get paid for his polls (probably because none of the media outlets can stand him).
Imagine if one of the other pollsters got a similar result - they’d be trying all sorts of weighting options.
Burt I suspect that he is loving the attention.
Reading those links to the Morgan story shows how much of the journalism in this country is just cut’n'pasting media releases.
‘Jasmine….the fact she has a law degree is neither here nor there.’
I beg to differ, if elected she will be a legislator, any legal studies helps her here. I have a law degree we call each other ‘learned friends’ for a reason. Not the be all nor an end all, but it is called the new arts degree for two reasons.
‘She has voted for Howard at previous elections.’ So has more than half the voting public at all but one of his victories, it isn’t a crime. It makes her a better candidate not a worse one.
‘She got the gig cos her famous footballer husband didn’t want it.’ Do you have evidence of this? I mean like you talked to the decision makers, not read something in a gossip magazine or newspaper? It looks very sexist indeed, it seems to start with an assumption she is inferior to her husband, not a good look for someone so sensitive about being called sexist.
“She clearly has no idea about politics, nor scant understanding of what the Labor party is about.” And that differentiates her how? It means she isn’t a party person, not a machine person? Is that bad? I was at the last state convention and I can’t tell you what the labor party is about.
“She can barely string two words together.” this is a foolish thing to say she writes for a living. Perhaps you mean “not a polished visual media performer” in which case having refined your argument from ridiculous to plausible it still doesn’t distinguish her from 3/4 of the candidates in the election (ignoring minor party candidates).
“Whats her record in community service, what are her views on social justice, what does she think of trade unions and their importance, what has she done that would make her a valuable member of the labor party?”
OK you want her less in touch with the electorate like us political class, I understand that .. it does not diminish her as an electable candidate IMHO.
On the occassions when I’ve seen her asked basic questions she’s replied like an a grade airhead. We don’t need any more people like that in parliament - there’s already enough.
Yeah you might be right on the first one, but I don’t think you are and it is a matter of opinion, but you are secondly right on the second one, but this is what makes you sexist. Almost all those airheads are males and were not attacked and mocked and ridiculed in the disgusting way you are mocking her. And to then suggest those airhead boys already in the game disqualify her is incredibly poorly thought out even if you are trying to be sexist which I assume you are not. I’m giving you the benefit of the doubt and assuming it is one of those unfortunate cultural things you haven’t escaped from.
The fact that she’s a women has nothing to do with it and it really gets tedious being accused of sexism whenever criticism is directed at the capacity of a woman.
I beg to differ the fact that she is a woman seems to be the ONLY thing you have to distinguish her from the other candidates you are not attacking.
Paisano
Brilliant rejoinder - how can i argue with such devastating logic
There’s nothing puritanical about parliamentary standards and the fact that you’re sarcastic about the ‘elevated arts practiced in canberra’ suggests that you’ve accepted too many candidates like nicole. I’ll leave you to your list..
Ashley @ 392.
You could also argue that her change in views are also representative of the change in heart the rest of the community is having if you’re to believe the polls.
Trioli on Lateline!!!!
Laura Tingle on LL.
Lateline has John Howard biographer tonight. Should be riveting!
The economy has now emerged as the dominant issue. Yup…
In my eyes it is. To me it shows complete ignorance. For all we know if she hadn’t been named a candidate for Labor she may well have voted for Howard again.
mad cow Says: Trioli on Lateline!!!!
Yeah, I know, it’s hard to watch LL with her on. Oh well.
Why don’t the MSM get it.. John Howard is the dominant issue in this election.
Sammy, at least you acknowledge that Shanahan has shredded his credibility and deserves the arse, and for that I dips me lid to yer.
Better than freakin’ Kroger.
I have been trying to get a comment on Dennis Blog for hours, it keeps getting rejected for some reason. This fake car industry story should be one of the biggest scandals in the election Since the crap was actually front page nationally, if the retraction isn’t on the front page there will be all hell breaking loose.
So far I have tried.
“how’s the car industry Denniss?”
“I agree Denniss, good article, how does this translate to the car industry”
“what was it you said about labors IR policy and the car industry Denniss, I cant find the link”
“have you quit due to embarrassment and that is why you wont post my comments Denniss?”
if you dont know what i am on about check out possum.
The fact that the car industry came out and said the story was false about their representations to the govt, indicates they think Rudd will win I believe.
Sure. But I don’t want to vote for a sheep.
Late line looks boring… I’m off to bed and spend sometime with my girlfriend.. oops!
Koala @ 389, the GG article on Morgan did mention the f2f briefly:
This is just a breaking news article, not an opinion piece - Spamaham is probably still looking for the silver lining. I eagerly await his effort on this one - unless he’s otherwise occupied in cleaning out his desk …
“Better than freakin’ Kroger.” Agree ShowsOn - I should’ve added a
at the end of my note
jasmin, having a law back ground doesn’t make someone a better member of parliament. Howard has one. Intelligence, compassion, imagination just to name a few things are what’s needed. ‘learned friends’? get of your high horse.
Ocean Colour Sean, clearly you haven’t been able to. That disappointment aside, I have not decided to accept or not Nicole on the basis of MSM soundbites or poor grades in policy recital.
I know middle man women shouldn’t ride horses. I studied for 6 years and I”m not going to be ashamed of it for you.
315
jasmine_Anadyr Says:
November 9th, 2007 at 9:48 pm
” My position is quite simply this, that on all the evidence presented Ms Cornes is —
So why is she constantly vilified, attacked and abused? I think you can guess my answer.?
What is your answer Jasmine ? Please don’t say sexism or gender discrimination unless you have more than johnny-come-lately ‘third wave’ feminist slogans to rant. Substantive evidence or at least reasonable anecdotal observations would be appreciated.
It is possible that Cornes is being attacked by people on other grounds other than her being female. Feminist hairy armpit freinds attending Flinders University and Adelaide and who live in “Boothby” anecdotally tell me she is unpopular with some over there because she is “a twit”, full stop. What say you ?
I agree, I think there are too many lawyers in parliament. Ministers have heaps of advisors to tell them the precise intent and operation of bills and acts. Having a law degree doesn’t make someone a genius in all areas of the law anyway.
I’m not saying it would hurt, just that it isn’t a pre-requisite to being a good politician.
I’m a bit sorry to have mentioned Cornes seeing the above. The reason we are disagreeing is really that when you are put forward as a “celebrity candidate”, you will get a lot more scrutiny. Live by the sword, die by the sword. I’m sure she is not unintelligent (have to retract tat brain-dead comment from last night) but it was naive of her to run hoping to wing it when she was under the spotlight. I hope she wins. (And I’ve known Andrew Southcott for thirty years! Actually, he’s a very pleasant, intelligent guy but not much of a politician)
LL says Galaxy shows Wentworth is in play. Really????
Geez, and in other news attractive blonde women get more dates.
It is very bizzare that you are arguing a qualification in law, or indeed even studies in it, does not help someone making laws … that is what they do .. haven’t you noticed .. I’m not saying it is necessary, nor a guarantee of a good member, but you are suggesting it is irrelevant that is absurd and bizzare.
wasn’t asking you to be ashamed of it.
ShowsOn, hate to say it but politics makes a lot of demands on people’s time. That’s why it tends to favor people like lawyers and discourages people like nurses.
Did anyone here read Nicole Cornes’ weekly columns?
Ashley & Sean, whilst I agree that Nicole Cornes is not the most impressive candidate, & perhaps not even the best available for Boothby, I don’t think she deserves the criticism she gets.
The general suggestion that she has no depth could easily be applied to a significant number of MPs.
It may even be refreshing to have someone in parliament who doesn’t give the usual rehearsed responses to questions that we’re used to hearing.
you’re getting process and content confused Jasmine.
a pisstake of that photo with JWH and the fallen woman at the shopping centre:
http://s242.photobucket.com/albums/ff86/virtualkat/?action=view¤t=apologise.jpg
Hasn’t someone already reported Wentworth poll 51-49?
Why does this Cousins stuff make a current affairs program? I’m not into Sport, but is this really news?
Well, they don’t really write the legislation. The politician / government come up with a policy that they want parliament to pass, but the actual text of the legislation is performed by the highly trained lawyers in the attorney generals department.
They specialise in that job, they know what wording to use based on precedent etc. If a politician is worried that the wording won’t do what the policy says it should do, they take advice from other lawyers in the attorney general department to make that judgment.
I’m not getting anything confused at all.
Nicole Cornes looked horrible the other day the media savaged her really bad, said she had invented another take on the door stoop interview and it has a media scrum following Nicole Cornes who is trying to avoid answering question. I don’t think Boothby will be falling anytime soon, why would be want such a calamity to befall the most outstanding and consistent dorothy dixer performer on the Tory side of politics.
LL only gave primaries in Wentworth 44/36 Turnbull/Newhouse, so that’s a 9-10% swing on primaries to the ALP. The Greens got 11% last time (King got 18%), so it’s very much in play.
Been there @ 246:
I work in a state Treasury, actually in a branch which deals with Commonwealth-State financial relations, so I know something of these issues. Unfortunately, I’ve never done an historical analysis of this kind.
What you really should do is to get hold of Commonwealth Budget papers and look up the quantum of money transferred to the states in each year, and - yes - probably best to do this as a percentage of GDP. The numbers you are looking for will be “total Specific Purpose Payments”, “total General Purpose Payments/Financial Assistance Grants” (pre-1999), and total GST (post-1999). Unfortunately, whilst you will find a few budgets at http://www.budget.gov.au, it’ll only go back till around ‘96 or ‘97. Thus, to compare with Hawke/Keating, you’d need to go to your state library and look for the dead-tree versions.
I can say off the top of my head that the states are *now* better off with the GST than before (they had to abolish a number of their own taxes to get it), but it must be remembered that the expenses of running government and delivering services has risen in the same time.
It was in the media recently, but it has been shown demonstrably that the Commonwealth have been disinvesting in health, contributing less of the pie now than they used to. This is horribly irresponsible and cynical in an environment where health costs are skyrocketing and we have an ageing population that will, into the future, require more and better heath care.
You are right in that the Commonwealth has used its funding contribution to bully the states into implementing Commonwealth policy - eg the flagpoles in schoolyards, the compulsory use of AWAs in some sectors (I think TAFE, iirc). This is done through the Specific Purpose Payment mechanism, which (unlike the GST revenue) is ‘tied funding’ - ie the state must match the SPP funding $ for $, and adhere to a raft of conditions relating to reporting, badging, outputs, policy. The states need this money, and so are forced to sign up to SPPs, despite the conditions and the lack of growth in funding in real terms coming from the Commonwealth.
Whilst I am a Labor voter, I am under no illusion that this practice won’t continue under Rudd, in some form or another. The whole “buck stops with me” shtick has the subtext that he will continue to bully the states to achieve his own policy agenda through SPPs. The threat to take over hospitals demonstrates this.
Not of direct help, but you may find this an interesting read: from the Tas Budget.
Anyway, enough rambling from me - although feel free to ask further questions, I’ll help if I can.
Thank you Showson. Thats why diversity in the house is highly desired. To ensure the content meets the needs of all Australians.
Why i sthere the presumption that a politician must know law? Ministers don’t draft legislation personally. they have parliamentary draftsmen, departmental advisers and law reform commissions. Does the Education Minister have to be a teacher? Does the treasurer have to be an accountant?
Politicians make policy - legislation should merely be a mechanical process to put policy into action.
Lateline says Galaxy poll in Wentworth (for Sunday Tele) has Turnbull 44%, Newhouse 36% (from memory), with the rest to Greens and independents. They didn’t do a 2PP breakdown (presume that’s being held back for the Sunday Tele), but my quick calculations suggest Newhouse would need 70%+ to win. Given that most Greens preferences will favour him, but there are a lot of Liberal voters who’d lodge a pulp mill protest then preference to Turnbull anyway, I reckon it’s line ball. Gut feeling is to give it to Turnbull, but very close!
Will be fun to watch Wentworth on election night.
Thanks god for Laura Tingle tonight - I can’t believe Peter says overall John Howard’s campaign is going well! WTF?!
Actually a 7% swing on primaries by labor and i think a 3% swing to Malcolm.
Is there a law during against media fabricating stories during an election period in order to support a political party?
If so what is the punishment on the journalist and media outlet?
If there is no law then a journalist can manufacture the most outrageous lie that they like, win one side the election and worry about facing the music later. AND if your side gets back in you can bet you won’t be chased too hard.
If there is no law then it means there is absolutely no protection agains corrupt journalists, corrupt media outlets and corrupt actions by a political party.
Was the Liberal party today acting in a corrupt way given that they were talking to a story they must have know was not true?
It seems to me that it is a very simple matter indeed to corrupt our democracy in a world of concentrated media ownership.
What is the chance then that a few days before the election a Howard friendly journalist will manufacture the most emotive outrageous lie that costs labor the election - but they get protection from government afterwards?
ON the ABC if it can be proven that during an election period that they consistently and deliberately favoured one side of polics is that a crime? Can anyone be prosecuted?
LL
Onselen has just radically limited his future job opportunities - pretty sill for someone his age.
you are agreeing with Glen, I rest my case. I’m going to do something more pleasant.
Glen
Yes, after the redistribution you are correct.
Kevin Rudd: Revenge of the Nerd.
jasmine_Anadyr
First up…Love your work!,
**Hats off**
GOD I love the way you “Lawyer talk”
Honestly, you could turn a shit-storm into a sunbeam and I would still believe you
Classic
Is Tingle party affiliated, or is she possibly a journalist using their brain for analysis?
I want to marry Laura Tingle. You go girl.
MarkTwain:
LIE. Who’d a thunk.
Ms Twain the acronym was not a random selection. Though often to your chagrin you will have noticed my obsession with berating the MSM for merely perpetuating the lies of those who aim to deceive. The right to know and obligations of a free press to ensure democracy and all that there stuff eh!
However your repugnance of Shanahans shenanigans has nonetheless convinced me there are still journos that have standards.
So cheers and may the truth be your sword Ms Twain.
Still Jon the question remains what happened to the rest of King’s vote?
18% with 7 and 3 to ALP and Lib that’s 8% still in play??
Onselen is a Howard supporter, but not a rabid one.
Laura has a weekly spot on Late Night Live, and her analysis is always very good.
Jasmine
Ah the iron cage of gender stereotyping..
I could reply to all of your points but I really cant match your level of kant and hysteria. I’ll Just answer the last point which really is the crux of your rant about my sexism:
“I beg to differ the fact that she is a woman seems to be the ONLY thing you have to distinguish her from the other candidates you are not attacking.”
THat has got to be one of the silliest remarks i’ve come across on PB. I DO attack other thickheaded, airheaded, bankrupt, thoughtless and all together useless members of parliament. Nicole’s not alone and the fact that she’s a women is of no consequence. I’ll send you the transcripts if you like. Maybe you’ll defend them just as loudly.
But feel free to go on throwing the sexist tag out wherever you see the need - youre obviously vigilantly and only slightly hysterically fighting the good fight…
Trifid
re; unreheared responses in parliament…
just like Our Pauline perhaps?
This is a ridiculous discussion.
Just because a woman is blonde and attractive shuld not negate her capacity as a political figure.
And just because she is attractive and plitically hopeless should not mean she cannot be criticised for fear of being seen as sexist either.
I do not know Mrs. Cornes - although I have seen pictures of her, and she is v. attractive.
This has no bearing on whether or not she is a good candidate.
I have however, heard she is as dumb as duck shit when it comes to dealing with questions in the political arena (which is what you do as a candidate)- despite her status as a Learned Colleague… plenty of excellent conveyencers and contract lawyers out there, but doesn’t make them good politicians Jasmine.
Tingle is thinking - whoo-hoo!
La Troll doing her best to make it a 2 on 1 - is she has a bigger role on Lateline then I’m going to…don’t know what!
Yes Virginia, there really will be a new PM!
Sean, its like Clinton using her gender in an election campaign.
401
mad cow Says:
November 9th, 2007 at 10:32 pm
The economy has now emerged as the dominant issue. Yup…}
Howard only his this left now and is stuffing it up big time.
{Prime Minister John Howard says he is more optimistic about the outcome of the federal election now that the focus of the campaign has turned to economic issues.
Despite Labor’s continuing dominance in the opinion polls, Mr Howard says Australian voters are now thinking about the implications of a union-dominated Labor government.
He told Southern Cross Radio he is more focused than ever on winning.
“I don’t contemplate the possibility of losing. Particularly now that there is a focus on economic management,” he said.
“Economic management is still the dominant thing. I don’t think this election is by any means done and dusted as many commentators think.
“I think they’re misreading the public and I think the Coalition has a very strong change of winning.”}
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/11/09/2086260.htm?site=elections/federal/2007
#405
Enema Non-Conversant
You still haven’t apologised for kicking over my sand castle yesterday, so b#gger orf.
And since when has Dennis ever had any credibility? My argument has always been that he is not the media: he is just a very small, very bug-eyed, very [insert defamatory statement here] member of the media.
Now, who wants to hang bull on Laura Tingle? Dare ya.
Wether its fair or unfair the MSM have picked up a weakness in Nicole Cornes and are exploiting it every chance they get. I reckon wether she wins or not doesn’t matter, the fact she has a high profile and money to chuck into the campaign for labor, creates a situation where the libs will spend money defending boothby, and thats money would rather spend elsewhere. Same in Bennelong but i will admit maxine is a way better candidate. wether or not labour win either of these seats JWH is cactus. maxine will fair well in a by election if she doesn’t get in this time.
He’s a small l Liberal, he said so himself on Sunday.
He’s the kind of voter who will vote Howard in order to get Costello. Why exactly Costello counts as liberal I have no idea. He is tax and spend just like Howard.
To be fair, they’ve gotten stuck into Southcott as well, saying he is invisible, and hasn’t achieved anything in parliament.
Is Onselen in a 1 or 2 week time warp? Things might start to unravel - WTF happened this week you TOOL!
Tingle rebuts with reality.
La Troll throws down a wedge.
Tingle puts Troll in her intellectual place (without the Troll even realising….)
Troll handballs woefully to Onselen again…
how amusing that Jasmine thought because i was disagreeing with her I must be like Glen, ie a Lib voter. Hilarioous! and presumptuous!! I’m as left as left. Too funny. I just dont like real elitism in any sense.
Onselen on sorry… sorry?
If a journalist fabricates a story should the be dismissed. Is there anything a journalist needs to fear? Except upseting the Howard govt?
Who is this Onselen character….says on LL that Howard refuses to “out and out lie”?
Sheez, Trioli is an annoying piece of work. She makes Tony Jones look like a journalist.
I thought someone said “Laura Bingle” was on Lateline…….it was TINGLE!
Did Triolli just get back from a funeral? What on earth is she wearing?
Four words: Leigh Sayles, Gold Shirt
Glen
I guess it’s a bit harder to take into account King’s vote after the redistribution as those (now) included booths didn’t get to vote for him last time if they had wanted.
But if we have Liberal 44, Labor 36 that leaves 20%. The redistributed Green vote was 13%. This would make it about 52/48 (i.e. 50/50 is in MOE of the poll) Turnbull/Newhouse so still very much in play. I think the Greens can do better than that, given the pulp mill so one to watch.
Onsolen is a little snot of an excuse for a commentator. He is Howard’s biographer of choice.
Trioli is just an empty vessel with little skill.
That boy on lateline will be preselected for the libs next time round. You heard it here first.
Bingle would have probably made more sense than Trioli and Onselen.
The thing is, the ABC does have some really good people who could host Lateline. Leigh Sayles, Emma Alberici, Ally Moore. Let’s give them a run and shunt La Trioli to the Playschool hosting gig. She seems to like nodding her head and moving around a lot - perfect.