That Roy Morgan release discussed in the previous post has now been supplemented with data from last weekend’s face-to-face poll, and it shows a hard-to-credit blowout in the Labor lead to a “record” 62-38, from 57.5-42.5 the previous week. The Coalition’s primary vote is down from 39 per cent to 34 per cent, while Labor’s is up from 49 per cent to 54.5 per cent. The sample size was 990 compared with 552 from the phone poll.
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Morgan face-to-face: 62-38
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Phew! Just home from a great day at the cricket test, to be greeted by these Morgans (which probably really mean 55-45 as usual). I’m not so keen on one-sided contests in the cricket, but an electoral landslide suit me fine
Still, shall be out letterboxing tomorrow – no room for complacency!
Grog: I was in grade 7 then, so I won’t remember anything of it, but what was the ‘3 cents in the dollar’ business about?
And round and round in circles
He fights with failing strength
Till born down by the waters
The old dog sinks at length.
Sorry to be a wet blanket, but convince me – too many let-downs on election nights have left too many scars. I do not trust polls.
Sideline Eye #124
I actually have a friend who used to work for Morgan. He agrees with the accepted wisdom that face-to-face polls do overstate Labor support, probably by 2% or so over phone polls. He says the reason is that most of those who do the polling, out in the streets, are students or young people, orking to get a few extra bucks.
Those who are approached to be polled are sometimes reluctant, if they’re older or likely to vote conservative. Younger folk are more happy to be approached. hence the strong Green vote in ftf and a fairly strong Labor vote. The young pollsters are supposed to make sure they get a fair sample, but it doesn’t always happen. It’s only a slight bias to the left, but if does happen.
You must also take into account that you write out your party of choice, and put it in a box, and don’t tell the pollster face to face (or at least that’s what happened to me some years ago, when I was polled by Morgan). That helps avert the bias, as does weighting of the results.
In phone polls, people are more willing to participate. And Morgan staff can check back with those polled, to check that the young pollsters did question the right age groups and geographical spread.
And in a general comment on the polls….we will never know whether any of the current polls are accurate, because an election is not being held now. The only way to really assess the accuracy of an individual pollster is how accurate the poll immediately before the election was.
Still, it’s all great fun.
Glen 149 – I wouldn’t think that would work either. Jamie Packer’s a Scientologist, and so is a former chief of staff to Dolly Downer. (Yes, the Libs do attract those cultists…)
Speaking of that Renee Geyer tune. via a link on Tim Blair’s site.
http://www.australianpolitics.com/elections/1975/turn-on-the-lights.ram
That I don’t remember (VoterBoy, help us out?)- but it probably had to do with tax cuts. I recall Singo did the ALP’s ads then and their was a classic of a puppet Howard as magician who was getting money out of thin air (apparently there was a bit of a whole in his tax plan – he should have me-too’d!)
Does the Do Not Call register affect the phone polling companies?
Derek @153
After the last 11 years, I don’t trust elections.
Almost all of the outliers have tended to be upwards rather than downwards for Labor. The lowest all year has been 53. Why haven’t we seen a 50-50 outlier, which is just as far away from the most common result of 55-45 as a 60-40 poll?
Maybe not all of these “rogues” are entirely outliers. Sure, this one is obviously inflated, and it doesn’t accord with the Galaxy and Newspoll, which were taken at roughly the same time. But FTF is a different ballgame. It captures people that a phone poll may not.
141 John Button, are you the John Button from down Geelong way and formerly an industry enthusiast?
Market Research companies and political parties and charities are exmept.
“Rudd to me is a dud but will be made into a Labor hero, and really is a corporate boy who believes in nothing.”
[shrug] I thin that’s a little harsh but I don’t completely disagree.
But despite his many flaws, Rudd will be a hero to many, including me, for managing to finally defeat the unworthy Howard, who believes in little more than nothing, but all of which is vile.
John Button:
Yes very true, I honestly didn’t know whether to burst out laughing at the absurdity or shed tears in sorrow for Costello’s deranged mental state. He had one prepared line (crosby textor for him) which he used about 6 times, regardless of the question and often using it twice in the one answer, but fluffed it every time.
Costello is certainly no economist
I know what’s going to be on the front page of our papers tomorrow in Victoria – “Ashby resigns from senior Vic police job”
VBoOtW @ 145
I am permanently scarred by making home brew in that year – a vintage my mate and I called “Raisin the Standard” – ouch!
Glen
The issue of the ‘legality’ of arrival only becomes relevant if their claim to asylum is denied. The relevant question is: do they have a legitimate claim to asylum?
Simple.
the line about illegality is obfuscation and an attempt to evade moral responsibility by people interested in using fear for political purposes.
Martin B, I’m on record as saying I don’t think Rudd is perfect. But elections are about freaking winning – do that and he will fully deserve to be an ALP hero.
But the bigger question is what will JWH’s legacy be if he loses?
*cough* bullshit
StanS…sorry to let you down, but I’m not the real John Button. I’ve been thinking about Shamahan’s pathetic piece today on the Automobile Industry and Mr Button’s name came to mind. Unfortunately, we don’t get those kind of guys in Parliament anymore.
Glen, like most Liberals, appears to find it acceptable to punish real, innocent people for the imaginary transgressions of others, and to force poverty stricken countries on the edges of war zones to accept an unlimited refugee burden while wealthy distant countries pick and choose their response.
I find that revolting.
It starts to show that Costello is useless without the support of Treasury and the other 87 HoR Coalition members helping him in parliament to remember how to count. Perhaps Costello will benefit from Howard’s R’s education system.
I for one think the polls will widen again in the coming days. Howard’s conduct this last week has been reminiscent of his performance earlier this year – erratic, dissembling, delusional, bickering, ill-tempered – that helped cement opinion behind Rudd. The interest rate rise will peel another 90,000 voters from the coalition. And the arrogant-yet-fumble-headed efforts of the coalition team will compound the damage.
This is the PM-and-sponsoring-parties we’ve come to know and reject.
Dave @ 146
Thanks for that, absolutely hilarious
Glen, if I saw people drowning, I would try to save their lives, if it was in my power to do so.
If I subsequently found them to be illegal immigrants (or asylum seekers), I would alert the appropriate authorities and leave them to deal with it.
I think the SIEVX episode, and AWB paying bribes to Saddam Hussein, are a blot on my nation’s reputation.
And on another issue – “me-tooism”….
If Rudd supports a Howard policy, how can Howard complain? If it’s a good policy, it should be supported. It may be a clever political tactic by Labor, but how can Liberals complain about it?
If you argue that all Labor does is copy Howard’s policies, and Rudd is ahead in the polls, the only conclusion you can reach is that voters prefer Rudd to Howard, and actually believe he’s more likely to implement Howard’s policies than Howard is!
Anyway, we all need to go for growth, while stopping wages (the reward for growth) down. Rememeber – you’ll be better off when you’re worse off!
I would like to be a fly on the wall of the Costello household,these kind of opinion poll results would be wiping that smug smirk of his face,we all know now who has “no ticker”
Martin, i am happy to accept some refugees to Australia but i think we should punish que jumpers as harshly as we can.
Grog if nothing else JWH made sure Keating was a 1 termer thank goodness. For that he deserves his indexed pension and then some.
70 Michael Says: November 9th, 2007 at 7:39 pm
Not me. I voted for howard.
The belting awaiting the libs is going to be even greater.
going by msm behaviour with regards to the election nothing will become of shannanan car article , the msm have been avid supporters of the liberals all year , cannot see it changing
morgan’s ftf seems to have been collected in safe labor seats
it must have crapped morgan off, to do a poll and the results are that noone will believe it
Let It End@113
As much as a hate to defend Costello, 48 weeks per year (4 weeks holidays), 5 days per week at $1000 per day does actually add up to $240,000 a year.
“Martin, i am happy to accept some refugees to Australia….”
Thanks Glen, that’s very big of you….
“…but i think we should punish que jumpers as harshly as we can. ”
You just don’t get it Glen. My father would have done anything to get us out of our situation and emigrate to another country, anything at all. Maybe when you have children and you can see they would have no future where they are, you too might consider “que jumping” to further their opportunities.
From Possum
“From this we can say that since 2000 Morgan has, on average, estimated the ALP primary vote to be about 2.3 points higher than Newspoll and estimated the Coalition vote to be about 1 point lower than Newspoll.”
One of the least commented upon (except by me
but interesting moments of the campaign was how Howard in the leaders’ debate mounted a vigorous defence of me-tooism, claiming that his support from opposition of government policies in the ’80s was a sign of great virtue…
I would really like to think that John Button was contributing to this blog.
I also hope that Gough is too..
and even poor Mark….
As far as I can tell, this is one of the more civilised and engaged and informed spaces in our multimedia world…
and I guess there is a strong chance that John Button might well be participating, as he had an integrity that I suspect voters fundamentally know they cannot ever get with JWH and hence they now find the complete contrast with someone like Rudd…
sure, no saint (would that we all were) but at least someone who you sense (hope) actually has a conscience….
lets have more john buttons and as our new great helmsman might exhort: let a thousand john buttons bloom….our country can only benefit, as opposed to the dead hands of the costellos and howards etc etc of the world….
Yes but why wouldn’t you go through normal channels and apply to come here legally?
I put the morgan face2face poll through a rigorous statistical calculation involving the degree of cosine times the tan of the exponential minus the coefficient of the square root of infinity divided by pi and I came up with the following Margin of Error for the F2F Labor polling figure of 62%:
the MOE is between +38% & -0.00000000000000000000000000001
Therefore, I can deduce from my well proven methodology that Howard is f**ked.
166 Gary Bruce you make a good point – the big problem for any party comming from behind is to break through the rest of the news.
The papers and TV seem to have gotten bored with the election.
We have the campaign launches… then what else is left? In week 2-3 the big spending was so big, that now a $1b policy would be news story #5.
Because the government in your home country wants you dead?
Because a militia in your own country wants to rape your wife and daughters?
Because religious extremists in your country have murdered your brothers and sisters, and are now coming to get you?
Because you’re already dead, and it is your family that is trying to get to somewhere safe?
186
Glen Says:
November 9th, 2007 at 8:42 pm
Yes but why wouldn’t you go through normal channels and apply to come here legally?
……
because the chances are someone like you, glen, would end up rejecting the application for no good reason…
“Yes but why wouldn’t you go through normal channels and apply to come here legally?”
Glen, give up – you don’t get it when you use terms like “normal channels”, “apply” and “legally”. Please explain to everyone what you mean by these terms. For someone in a war-torn country, or living under a dictatorship, how do they go about contacting the “normal channels” and “applying” to “legally” emigrate?
when is the budget of honesty due , must be soon
Seamus:
No mate, he wasn’t talking about salary, he was talking raw employment stats. For those stats please note the country actually runs 7 days a week and has no annual leave.
I think we can all agree this is an outlier. Nonethless, I dont doubt its veracity (ie Morgan didnt make it up).
In other words, there *really are* 990 people out there, Morgan sampled, who returned 62-38.
Unless the entire survey was conducted in Northcote, Newtown and New Farm, that in itself is disastrous news for Howard.
It means the utter wipeout of 54:46 is actually feasible.
Labor have released their how to vote cards for the lower house in the “people” section of their website.
#146 There are many captions to this photo (minus the sparks!) on the previous thread.
But here’s some new captions: “It’s OK – the electricity is from clean coal”
“Are you a South Australian Liberal candidate?”
“How dare you talk to that man from morgan!”
And second-last line of my previous post (#176) should read “keeping” not “stopping”.
Like many others, I think, I hit “submit comment” before proof-reading.
62-38 is hardly believable, but as others have said, if you’re not getting anything equally ridiculous at the other end of the scale (like a 50-50 or 49-51), what’s that telling you? It’s hard to believe that all the wild outriders are at the top end of the scale. You’d have to think that the figures are around 55-45 or even slightly better for Labor.
Just out of interest: I know mixing polls from separate pollsters is unreliable, but what about aggregating both the Morgan polls to give you a total sample size of 1542? If you do that, you end up with a Labor lead of 60-40 2PP. With a margin of error of 2.5% if I’ve done my sums correctly (and I wouldn’t take that for granted).
I suppose it depends on whether the questions and the methodology are the same for both (aside from the obvious difference of the way those polled are selected). Somebody will set me straight no doubt.
PS Did anyone else see Paul Keating’s letter in the SMH today?
Here tis.
David Atherfold suggested John Howard owes me an apology on interest rates (Letters, November 8). I assure him I will not be holding my breath waiting.
The current Liberal Party television ad has a photo of me over a caption of “12%”. I thought, for Mr Atherfold’s benefit and for that of other readers, that I would simply introduce one relevant fact into the interest rate debate. And that is the interest rate which drives all others, the Reserve Bank cash rate, in the three years of the Keating government averaged 6.1 per cent. I repeat: 6.1 per cent.
It was the Keating government that broke the back of Australian inflation. This was why it was able to pass on to Mr Howard and Mr Costello average cash rates of 6.1 per cent when they took office in 1996. That was their inheritance, not 17 per cent, which was the rate for a short time many years earlier, or the 22 per cent that Mr Howard, as treasurer, bequeathed the rest of us in 1981.
Mr Howard might explain to the community how the average cash rate of 6.1 per cent which he inherited from me in 1996 has turned into 6.75 per cent under him yesterday.
Paul Keating Sydney
It is a magic number makes me very happy. Outlier, rogue, pffft who cares it is entirely in the right part of the park.
Nice try Glen with your carrying on the lie to try and demonise refugees as criminals. That you libs are still telling this lie shows how little you have learned and how low you are happy to stay. Interesting Adam’s view on this.
One the number lets dream it was right for a moment, neither party would release figures like this if it was there internal polling, they’d stay quiet or play it down like Adam’s earlier post.
Oh and onto the CDP disappointing to see the Christians are both disgusting homophobic and racist all at once, they must be very proud.
199
jasmine_Anadyr Says:
November 9th, 2007 at 8:49 pm
It is a magic number makes me very happy. Outlier, rogue, pffft who cares it is entirely in the right part of the park.
…
I’m hoping it’s just the beginning, jasmine_A.
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