That Roy Morgan release discussed in the previous post has now been supplemented with data from last weekend’s face-to-face poll, and it shows a hard-to-credit blowout in the Labor lead to a “record” 62-38, from 57.5-42.5 the previous week. The Coalition’s primary vote is down from 39 per cent to 34 per cent, while Labor’s is up from 49 per cent to 54.5 per cent. The sample size was 990 compared with 552 from the phone poll.
Reflections on the Miracle of Democracy at Work in the Greatest Nation on Earth
Morgan face-to-face: 62-38
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This is not the Seinfeld Campaign, but rather the Shake-hands-with-a-dessicated-coconut-birthday-cake Election. Everyone who was something or wanted to be something is throwing their two cents in.
Get Real: Tell you what I’d love to have a few beers with John Button and Paul Keating ( I know lot of people hate….hey I don’t)…..at least those guys new what economic reform was about and could relate back simply to the public….not like the clowns we have in governnment at the moment. All smoke and mirrors with Howard and Costello at the helm.
I would like to see Lindsay Tanner get a run as Treasurer.
I have never tried to demonise genuine refugees as criminals Jasmine, the only criminals are the que jumpers who are here illegally and have no valid claim for humanitarian visas. Don’t put words in my mouth Jasmine.
Glen, what channels? You’re world’s descended into chaos, you have few choices but to get as far away as your own resources will take you. I was dhown a couple of properties by a young Vietnamese woman a while ago. Her parents had run a casino in Saigon, for use by US soldiers. They’s converted their cash into small gold bars. They ran in 1975 – re-education awaited the lot of them if they didn’t. She reckoned each gold bar was worth about $3000 and it cost about $60000 to get the family (illegially) to Australia on a leaky boat. The alternative was a refugee camp in HK and eventual return to Vietnam – followed by re-education. What would you do?
oyster the charter of budget honesty is a total crok – ignore it.
http://petermartin.blogspot.com/2007/09/tuesday-column-rigged-campaign.html
Possum asked me the other day if I thought, as a journalist, any of the Newsy kids would be feeling the heat after the election, in view of how many of them have called this one so terribly wrong. I said no, that Dennis might get his b#m smacked and Sheridan might have to temper his demands to bomb all the towel-heads into oblivion and Milne would have to give up his plans to be a prime ministerial press secretary, but in the end that would be about it. Look at Alan Ramsey after all, I said – he called it for Latham last time and has had to wear the ignominy ever since.
Having just read Dennis’ piece on the car industry and the fall-out from it, I reckon it’s not a little b#m smacking that is going to happen. He is going to get an a#rse kicking so magnificent he won’t be able to descend into the ionosphere before Tuesday. He should be sacked outright and Chris Mitchell should be doing it now, before Dennis can inflict even more damage on the paper’s already tattered reputation. Whether he does so is a matter for his own conscience and (whether or not Dennis is on an AWA).
As someone who takes pride in my profession, even if the rest of the world thinks we journos should be eating worms with the pollies and the used car salesmen, I’m just the tiniest bit p#ssed off.
# 186 Glen Says: November 9th, 2007 at 8:42 pm
This aint student services there Tim. When you have children that are in imminent danger, you don’t stand in line and hope you’re lucky.
You’re showing you age.
Most of those refugees were fleeing Saddam Hussein, or the Taliban. Who were the bad guys, right?
What? Im sorry? Oh, the people they tortured were the bad guys?
Mmmmkay.
Christ, Id hate to be a Tory. Imagine having to hold two fundamentally inconsistent positions like that.
What a assinine and irrational existence.
#131 Noocat, and anyone else interested, all the journos at the Oz have the same email address structure.
Last name first name initial @ theaustralian.com.au
as one of your examples shows
Grant Holloway
hollowayg@theaustralian.com.au
They were obviously genuine refugees Damien so i would support them if they made a claim here, but why they didn’t do this before the fall of Saigon and applied at the Australian consulate i don’t know, but that doesn’t matter on the face of it they appear genuine.
I’d read my own posts if I were you Glen.
Even the most hopeless liars and crooks can maintain internal consistency if they concentrate a bit.
The problem for the Libs with this outlier poll is not that it is an outlier as such but that you can get these numbers by conducting a poll in the usual manner. In the past an outlier would be 55 – 45, even 54 -46 but these days such results are seen as probably being on the money. A poll such as this in the past was just unthinkable. Hell, you’d be going to get these figures if you polled safe Labor seats only. So something is definitely going on out there outlier or not.
Glen, you’re language is getting more alarming!
“genuine refugees”
“the only criminals are the que jumpers”
“have no valid claim for humanitarian visas”
You are pathetic Glen, I’m sorry but there’s no other word for it. You don’t want to understand what refugees go through to leave a terrible situation, nor do you wish to see them as humans that deserve dignity and rights. I hope you nor your children ever have to go through what these people have, under their own regimes first, and through detention under Howard subsequently.
Let It End – I stand corrected.
“the only criminals are the que jumpers who are here illegally and have no valid claim for humanitarian visas.”
Glen, even someone with a passing acquaintance with the facts of this issues knows that, by any measures, well over 80% of boat arrivals are found to have valid claims for humanitarian visas.
The immorality of your position is that you acquiesce in visiting real, harsh punishment on the 85% of the arrivals who are innocent in order to deter the 15% who are merely ‘economic refugees’.
I imagine this topic will soon be squashed.
This from the link to Peter Martin’s bit on the charter in my last post, has this sentence which explains why the Libs might be starting to panic:
“Until now Labor has said it wants to make the game fairer. The Coalition had better hope that it means it. Should it lose office and be attempting to campaign from opposition for a decade it’ll need it.”
Wonder if in opposition the Libs will be so happy with the news rules they came up with for debates in parliament, and senate committees?
What goes around…
Oh and for the record could someone remind me how many of the Tampa group were not genuine refugees? Were there any illegals at all in the group?
Exactly GB. Was trying to say same above (not as eloquently)
Here is a petition to encourage ABC’s Lateline to invite Paul Keating and John Hewson to jointly debate the election campaign on the night before election day:
http://www.petitiononline.com/lateline/petition.html
I’ll pass it on to the ABC this time next week. So hopefully we can get 1000 or so signatures in that time.
You need to enter a valid email address, but just check PRIVATE so it doesn’t appear on the actual petition.
Grog at 158. You know, I don’t remember. I remember what I thought at the time was a series of very confusing ads by Singo in 87 (I think), showing a tottering house of cards indicating Liberal divisiveness and was visually a mess. I think the slogan then was ‘If you can’t govern yourself how can you govern the country?’
As I get older (ho hum), I find all manner of strange campaign reminiscences come into my head. Malcolm Fraser’s $2 British milkshake (1983?) – reminding people how dear things were overseas, and how cheap things were here. The notorious fistful of dollars ad (80?). Incentivation (under Hewson). The white picket fence (Howard in one of his early incarnations?). Speaking of Singo, I’m old enough to remember his ads for the Libs in 74 or 75, when he had some Estonian woman bagging the ALP as commos. “Hawke’s all talk” (83) was a shocker. “Shame Fraser, Shame” (75) was amusing self-indulgence as were the lyrics (”How could you have the gall/to put your country up against the wall?”).
‘Lead On, Liberal’ (80?) was an odd one. They made the unfortunate error of running translated versions of that ad in the ethnic press – particularly unfortunate when they ran it in the German-Australian paper.
Ahhh, memories… I only regret not remembering any of the DLP ads from the 60s and 70s. They were done by John Clemenger, so would have been of a high standard, and would be bedwettingly funny now.
Glen – ‘que’ jumpers ? Are you asking why they need to sidestep the normal visa process? It is a good question and more often than not deserving of our charity.
(That is even assuming that ‘economic refugees’ are a bad thing; I thought conservatives were supposed to support individuals efforts to improve their economic situation, but what would I know?)
Jasmine I’m not sure why you’re dragging me into this argument, but if you’re interested in my views here they are:
“For the Australian people to have confidence in the administration of our immigration system, it must be built upon rigorous procedures and processes, which protect our national interest and our national borders. We must also treat individuals fairly and with dignity. To treat individuals fairly requires that they are dealt with in a speedy and efficient manner, where decisions are based on fair procedures and subject to appropriate review. Protecting our national interest and our national borders requires zero tolerance for people smugglers, who will be subject to harsher penalties to deter their activities and stop unauthorised boat arrivals. It is also in our national interest to conduct ourselves as a good international citizen, to do our fair share for those who are subject to persecution and who need protection. Labor will ensure that our borders are secure and that the processing and detention of asylum seekers is fair. Labor will administer a fair and flexible refugee and humanitarian program. Labor will end the so-called “Pacific Solution”, with its huge cost to Australian taxpayers.”
Ah Glen, one moment you are agreeing there an no ‘queues’ for refugees and then in the next comment are calling them ‘queue jumpers’ – so which one is it? It is not illegal to seek asylum – and it doesn’t matter whether you seek asylum via a boat or a plane. The point is a country of 20 million people and a ‘trillion dollar economy’ as the Libs keep reminding us can more than cope with a few thousand asylum seekers.
And just to get back on topic. The Morgan poll does seem just a wee bit too good to be anywhere near true.
203
Glen Says:
November 9th, 2007 at 8:55 pm
I have never tried to demonise genuine refugees as criminals
….
Of course you have, Glen. You are complict crimes carried out against the homeless, the stateless, the vulnerable and exploited. But it’s alright: it’s politics as practiced by the genius of Kirribilli. Go ahead: defend the indefensible.
anyone remember the last election to have a theme song?
Is anyone concerned that the election is on during schoolies… as alot of the Labor voting young are going to be too busy get pissed, high or shagged to bother to vote?
Do I have to remind about my “cognitive dissonance” lecture from yesterday Glen? Have you learnt nothing? For you, the Rodent is a hero and you believe in him. When he does something disgusting , it makes you feel bad, as you are a normal human. Yu don’t like feeling bad so you hace to do something. Instead of changing yur opinion about Howard, you choose to vilify the victims of Ratkings actions. If they were illegal, queue jumping aliens, what he did was not so bad. I hope I don’t have to go through this again.
VoterBoy – speaking of ads, I just saw the latest Lib offering on Ch 9 here … apparently the Labor party is soft on crime (picture of the Premier, M. Brumby). But Fran Bailey is most definitely NOT soft on crime. She’s tough on crime! Spouse said ‘that’s a joke’ (she is NOT a poll bludger). I haven’t seen one of these yet, although our PB colleagues have been reporting them. I mean, are they running for the local council? What are these clowns thinking? (sorry wrong word).
I say again, bullshit.
Campaigning on crime is another sign of barrel scraping by Team Rodent.
This is because it can be turned around too easily – if crime is such an issue, why hasn’t Howard done anything about it in 11 years?
Remember harder, VBoOtW
Incentivation, like the white picket fence, was part of Howard’s ‘Future Directions’ for the 1987 election.
Interestingly, Howard has managed to fulfil much of FD by niw. Except of course the complete dismantling of Medicare.
But Howard doesn’t have to announce his policies before an election, we all know what he stands for…
OFF TOPIC, but Glen said
I used to think the same as you. It sounds perfectly reasonable, until you get the facts. If you want to educate yourself and you’re not afraid of your world-view changing, here is a good place to start http://www.chilout.org/information/index.html
Thank you Adam, I just like you views, don’t agree with them all by a long shot, but always interested? You don’t object to that surely?
George just because you country is crappy does not make it ok to come to our country illegally, they are not refugees. I am not going to go into definitions but suffice to say there are specific definitions on this matter and if they don’t meet the guidelines they aren’t refugees.
Martin i do not deny the figures and I do support our refugee quotas and i do support taking our fair share but i do not support the proposition that economic ‘refugees’ should just be allowed in because they live in a poor country, its tough but i mean we’ve already got poor ppl in Australia we should help before we help economic ‘refugees’.
George you and i differ plain and simple, but if you want an open door immigration policy that’s your prerogative not mine.
Jasmine my position has been to borrow a phrase ‘clear cut’ (using appropriate hand gestures) i support taking in refugees, but i only support this if it is done through normal channels like the UN or through consulates, if it is done otherwise then they should be sent to Naru. However they should have their claims processed much faster than is current, i concede that point.
Let me be clear about this i didn’t start this debate, this was started by left wingers trashing Howard over his immigration policy, unfairly IMHO.
ShowsOn Says:
November 9th, 2007 at 9:00 pm
Here is a petition to encourage ABC’s Lateline to invite Paul Keating and John Hewson to jointly debate the election campaign on the night before election day:
thanks shows on… great idea..
John Button – I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again…
I pine for the days when we had real leaders – people who genuinely wanted to make Australia a better place – people who had a vision for the country as something better than it was.
Not everyone agreed with him (obviously very many did not agree with him), but no-one can honestly suggest that Keating (and many of his bintage) didn’t have that vision.
The current mob don’t compare… it’s very sad.
M’sieur CL. Good to catch up with you this morning. The Lib ads seem to be caught in a spiral of hopelessness and despair. Might I suggest they dig out the Michael Leunig cartoon from Nation Review, circa 75, which showed a man staring at a billboard on which was emblazoned the slogan. “Vote Liberal for a Bigger Dick.”
That might help them. But I don’t think anything else will.
Glen
many of your arguments seem forceful on the surface – I just don’t think you’d have those views if you got more involved and learnt more about the situation these people are in.
I say that because I believe you are a decent guy.
M
Actually, my mistake – Incentivation was indeed a slogan before the 1987 election, but Future Directions and its fence was not released until 1988.
More trouble re Haneef.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/11/09/2087010.htm?section=justin
There are big differences between economic ‘refugees’ who are ‘Que jumpers’ and genuine refugees, just so you all know.
Diogenes i don’t have to be called crazy on this blog for my views it speaks very low of your character for you to do this. Diogenes if you have read my posts throughout poliblogger there are several things about Howard and the Tories i don’t like so stop saying im a bloody sycophant who has nothing bad to say about the Coalition because it aint so joe!
I’m just the tiniest bit p#ssed off
LOL Ms Twain, be it ever so small do I detect a grudging acknowledgement at last of what many on here have put to you previously.
Unfortunately Shannas is typical of what passes for journalistic integrity these days. Be it due to partisanship, laziness or ineptness it is nonetheless incompetent and would not be tolerated in any other profession.
I believe even used car salesman have some standards they aspire to but I am yet to find any for Shanahan.
“Let me be clear about this i didn’t start this debate, this was started by left wingers trashing Howard over his immigration policy, unfairly IMHO.”
Yes Glen, and it still stands. Just so we are clear:
1. There are no ques to jumn
2. It is not illegal to be a refugee
3. People who are fleeing from persecution and violence should be not treated, and are not criminals.
4. Howard has used refugees, immigrants, race and minority groups time and time again to dog whistle.
You Glen support Howard. Spin it anyway you like, his immigration policies stink like a fresh turd.
Martin B @ 232. Thanks for the slap – I should have known that.
Ooh, a Haiku (of sorts) has come upon me…
Incentivate
Adumbrate
Sixth Rate
(Rise in a Row)
or, to keep it simple
Incentivate
Adumbrate
Third Rate
Call me foolish Glen but I think to be genuine refugees as almost all of them were, almost all of them Glen, they need a little more than that. Again you are vilifying them, spreading deliberate lies for political purposes, not just with a lack of facts but running entirely contrary to the known facts.
It is either very very very illinformed and you are not that, or it deserves another characterisation.
Why should genuine refugees be sent anywhere other than given refuge … notice the funny similarity between refugee and refuge, you might think they were related words. Oh and that locking them up like animals for years and years and years gets close to finding a cell of humanity in you is at least some relief.
I think you find with people seeking refugee they show up somewhere and ask for it. I don’t think you get to paint a white line and say line up there and then some how absolve yourself of your responsibility.
And anyway don’t you want them here to be exploited with women and young under workchoices … great for containing wage inflation, if you get enough.
Clearly an outlier, but everything we’ve seen in the last week points to 55/45 being the most likely result, somewhere between 85 and 100 seats to the ALP, I hope!!
Slightly off track,but maybe someone can point me in the right direction. A favourite tactic of the mythomaniac midget from Bennelong seems to have been to starve the States of funds for education, health, infrastructure etc, while berating them, and by implication or sometimes directly, federal Labor, for alleged failures in these areas. He and “Lou” have also obfuscated the issue of debt by putting out the furphy that the Commonwealth now has no debt, and by claiming that the GDP is not a Commonwealth tax since it replaces a number of other , mainly State, taxes and levies.
I have been trying, so far unsuccessfully, to compare the total levels of state government funding, from all sources, (as a percentage of GDP), in representative periods (say 1993-1995, under Keating and 2003-2005 under Howard/Costello). I think this might just show that State funding has significantly reduced, however try as I might I can’t seem to access the data.Can anyone help?
If it doesn’t show this then maybe the States have been more inefficient in the Howard years, although I don’t think so.
VoterBoy, thank you muchly, I remember that cartoon now you mention it. Now there was a rag! (Nation Review, that is). Sort of a pre-internet poll bludger, really.
thanks grog , i was just wondering if it was still in the mix , i can remember it being a bit of a big deal couple elections ago, if i remember rightly the libs beat labor over the head with it , so i can understand why labor want it changed
strangely costello has’nt mentioned it yet
George we agree on 2 and 3 (providing they meet the conditions of the UN charter) of your list in full. We just differ on points 1 and 4 that’s all. We’re half way there so i don’t see why there is this vendetta against me for my views on immigration.
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