That Roy Morgan release discussed in the previous post has now been supplemented with data from last weekend’s face-to-face poll, and it shows a hard-to-credit blowout in the Labor lead to a “record” 62-38, from 57.5-42.5 the previous week. The Coalition’s primary vote is down from 39 per cent to 34 per cent, while Labor’s is up from 49 per cent to 54.5 per cent. The sample size was 990 compared with 552 from the phone poll.
Reflections on the Miracle of Democracy at Work in the Greatest Nation on Earth
Morgan face-to-face: 62-38
Copyright © 2008 Private Media Pty Ltd, Publishers of Crikey.com.au. All Rights Reserved.
Independent news, blogs and commentary on politics, media and business.
Editor: Jonathan Green.
Publishers: Eric Beecher, Diana Gribble.
Level 7, 22 William St, Melbourne, 3000. Ph: 1800 985 502 Fax: (03) 8623 9975
669 Comments
Pages: « 1 … 4 5 [6] 7 8 … 14 » Show All
Michael, The vision will begin from the 25th onwards. The Libs aren’t big on vision – “comfy” is the extent of Howard’s ‘vision’ for Australia.
Rudd will warm to the role of PM, by the time of the 2010 election the country will be shudder with memory of the time when Australia was at best deputy to an incompetent President.
238
VoterBoy of Over the Water Says:
November 9th, 2007 at 9:09 pm
M’sieur CL. Good to catch up with you this morning. The Lib ads seem to be caught in a spiral of hopelessness and despair. Might I suggest they dig out the Michael Leunig cartoon from Nation Review, circa 75, which showed a man staring at a billboard on which was emblazoned the slogan. “Vote Liberal for a Bigger Dick.”
….
Bring back Leunig: he works on so many levels….:)
Where’s the queue in Iraq Glen? Or Afghanistan?
When’s the next ACN?
You can’t argue this with Glen. He LIKES the fact he was played for a sucker. He LIKES the fact Howard said none of the Tampa refugees would ever set foot on Australian soil, but now 400 of them live here, another 100 or so live in New Zealand, and 100 more live in the United States.
Glen LOVES being duped, misled, liked to, hoodwinked, and bamboozled. Whats more, he supports a political party that likes doing things things to him.
It’s a parasitic relationship.
Dario ask the Immigration Department they’ll tell you how you can apply legally.
What’s really sad is that we are even having this debate about refugees
There was a time when such topics were above politics
The current government has been in so long now – and they’re not all bad – but We’ve forgotten how things were, I think.
Things have changed so much, that people have forgotten what it was like…
Been there I have never done it from source documents but AM on ABC one morning cited stats that showed payments to the States, including GST, as a proportion of GDP were at 30 year lows, and that Commonwealth revenue was the biggest it has even been both in nominal terms and as a proportion of GDP (I think this was excluding the GST but it was a while ago I might be wrong, it might include the GST).
But essentially if those statistics are right the State have been providing a standard of health, education and other infrastructure that has ever been improving (admittedly the standard demanded has grown much faster than the actual growth of standard) with less and less money over time. In health in particular given the aging population the States have done an absolutely amazingly good job.
The real question is exactly what has Howard done with the 1000’s of billions he has deprived the states of?
This article sums up who the AB C are cheering for
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/11/09/2087163.htm?section=justin
Good news everybody! Morgan says Labor are leading 62-38, so Labor’s vote must have finally peaked. I must send this message back 993 years in time to our good friends at “The Australian”. I mean, it’s now the year 3000 and they are STILL waiting for the polls to narrow!
glen
has earnt his pay derailing analysis of the poll result
well done lib hq
Glen, you are accepting Howard’s view that there a ques to jump – wrong, I don’t accept this and the facts aren’t on your side:
“Fact: In Iraq and Afghanistan, there are no queues for people to jump. Australia has no diplomatic representation in these countries and supports the International coalition of nations who continue to oppose these regimes and support sanctions against them. Therefore, there is no standard refugee process where people wait in line to have their applications considered. Few countries between the Middle East and Australia are signatories to the 1951 Refugee Convention, and as such asylum seekers are forced to continue to travel to another country to find protection.
People who are afraid for their lives are fleeing from the world’s most brutal regimes including the Taliban in Afghanistan and Sadaam Hussein’s dictatorship in Iraq. Antonio Domini, Head of UN Humanitarian Program in Afghanistan, states that Afghanistan is one of the most difficult places in the world in which to survive.”
As far as 4 is concerned, don’t take my word for it, that’s fine – but it’s been analysed to death by many that Howard is the craftiest dog whistling superhero of them all.
http://www.presscouncil.org.au/
For those who want to complain about the latest Shananagan.
I sent this to the 2 Murdochistas per the email addresses someone kindly posted before:
{Dear Sir
I am absolutely disgusted at the blatant propaganda of Mr Shanahan’s article November 10 on a purported submission from the car industry, to the Government, now totally debunked by an article in the Age:
http://www.theage.com.au/news/federal-election-2007-news/car-industry-refutes-report/2007/11/09/1194329492589.html
You may think that acting like Pravda, or the “Government Gazette” is a normal function of a Murdoch publication in blind support for John Howard and his government, but in my opinion this sort of disinformation is most debilitating to our democracy. There are standards you know, of which you are well aware, of which I will be reminding the Press Council, pertaining to this article in particular.
Sir, you should be ashamed, and you should pull that article.}
Full name address etc…
Glen, I have never called you crazy. Misguided maybe. Everyone uses cognitive dissonance, its a universal human characteristic. But it is used most frequently and in its more extreme forms when people cannot give up their belief systems which are strongly held for whatever reason.
Possum keeps it all nice and steady. Just go with the flow. Morgan Shmorgan whatever happens el Rodenty is finished. Too late brothers. Dear Denny really screwed that one up and the Age made a real killing. Smirk and Stocking man screaming 7,000 unemployed. This is just plain crap and the majority know it. If Ruppy gets hold of this garbage he will roast little Denny. It is a bad look for the GG and any time you ruffle Ruppy’s feathers watch out. Be very afraid Dennis. Love to be a buzzy little wall fly. Interest rates not factored in yet. Howard looking like a stunned mullet while a woman collapses. Great for moral of our forces if you panic under pressure. Though not as serious sorta reminiscent of Bush boy when told of 9/11. Gillard slaughtered Shrek, here summary was brilliant and should be used late in the campaign. The negativity towards Jullia is pure sexism and its time to get over it and give credit where credit is due. Kevin is accumulating a swathe of negatives to throw at the Rodent late in the election when it really counts. Patience, patience patience. So far his card handling has been pretty spot on. Question is when will the coalition shrillness turn to resignation. Its a commmin. Revenge is sweet.
Is it possible that the F2F poll is picking up something systematic rather than being simply an outlier or an error? I suggest that perhaps people think it is “cooler” to vote Labor. In a face to face poll people might be swayed to go with the flow or say what is expected of them whereas in a phone poll they are less inclined to? So potentially the poll is telling us about the strength of the Labor brand.
Just a thought.
Michael 237: Totally agree with your sentiments. There was even some good guys in the Coalition.
Keating still has vision. It is a pity that the ALP (and the majority of the public) still see him as an electoral liability.
“4. Howard has used refugees, immigrants, race and minority groups time and time again to dog whistle.”
1987: Asian immigration should be reduced
1996: ‘For all of us’
1997: Pauline Hanson is just enjoying Freedom of speech
1998: Backyards are under threat from Wik.
2001: We don’t want people like that in Australia
And I’m sure there are others I have forgotten.
That is why I detest the policies of Hewson, Costello and Turnbull, but I am a Howard-hater.
Cynic i did no such thing in fact i started this post talking about the poll, if you read the posts i merely responded to some outlandish left wing rubbish that Howard uses refugees and race to win elections, and hey presto the left started a debate i didn’t even want. Go figure??
George then in that situation there would be other countries they could go and apply for refugee status other than Australia.
{Did I just see on the ABC news Costello refer to Kevin Andrews as “the good Kevin”? }
That was classic television that launch of Kevin Andrews campaign.
It looked like the only people there under the age of 90 were Costello and Andrews.
I bet Andrews is hoping they can hold on for another 15 days so he at least gets some votes.
259
Frank Calabrese Says:
November 9th, 2007 at 9:19 pm
This article sums up who the AB C are cheering for..
…..
In an odd way, Frank, I think it shows the ABC reflect the sentiments of lots of voters: it is all becoming a bit wearing. It’s gone on for so long and the more inane moments are the only newsworthy parts. It does show how hard it’s going to get for the Liberals from now on: no-one is paying attention and most basically just wish the election had been held weeks ago.
Folks, while I don’t want to get into a sh*tfight on this, I just want to make an observation about Glen’s modus operandi, based on this exchange on refugees and a lengthy and bitter one he and I had the other day about Cornelia Rau.
1. Glen starts off by making some bullish and arguably offensive statement, sometimes punctuated by terms such as ’scumbag’.
2. People respond, often equally bullish, but usually with far more factual detail.
3. Glen then claims he is being demonised, and cranks up the rhetoric.
4. People respond with an even more forensic dissection of his comments.
5. Glen then claims that there is very little difference between his stand and that of his critics (me-tooing?) and implores heaven to explain why he is being demonised.
6. Return to Step 2, and repeat cycle. Ad infinitum, ad nauseum.
And Glen – no correspondence will be entered into.
Glen, no metooism here mate! There’s a whole social conscience divide between libs and labor that you just don’t get – blood on your hands and shame on the libs for letting it happen
Glen….
Look, i’m not sure if you’re familiar with either the Act or the Regulations, but pretty much with refugees, rocking up in a boat is the correct channels. There is nothing illegal or even improper about coming to Australia and applying for asylum. Anyone can do it. For example, if my grandmother in england wanted to, she could come here and apply….
The concept of ‘illegal’ refugees cannot exist until they are refused asylum. At that point they are considered ‘unlawful’ and we deport them.
“George then in that situation there would be other countries they could go and apply for refugee status other than Australia.” Yeah Glen, I’m sure Iraqis fleeing could go to Afghanistan… keep going, you’re doing a wonderful job of showing how intolerant Liberals can be.
Glen, Glen, Glen. Guess we’ll never be able to convince you that just about all the asylum-seekers were subsequently judged to be refugees. Now I know why the others keep responding to your baseless statements. Queue jumpers? Which queue were they supposed to be in? We invaded I-R-A-Q because of Saddam yet we incarcerate those fleeing Saddam. The boats stopped coming because the Indonesian authorities started cooperating with ours. The boats are stopped from leaving Indonesia. Methinks we must have provided a lot of “aid” to Indonesia.
You are correct Yo Ho Ho but then they must be genuine and have proof that they are refugees and if they are we should help them as much as we can but if they don’t or if they are economic refugees/que jumpers they should be deported, that’s my position.
Marktwain – Do you drink carlton ?
John Button – I think there are still many good people in the coalition – unfortunately they’re silenced.
Interesting to see tonight on Channel 7, Lib ads which are bagging the State Government (nothing new there this campaign) then going on about “wall to wall” ALP governments but at the end, not promoting the Libs as a whole but solely promoting both Christopher Pyne (Sturt) and Southcott (Boothby). Looks like both these seats in their polling are causing some distress in Coalition circles!
#262 George – spot on!
Lindsay i don’t know about all but i know a lot were genuine refugees fleeing from persecution in their homelands i fully accept this point and i have never denied this fact. I’ve watched a bit of a SBS doco on some of them in New Zealand. The system worked, they were proven to be genuine refugees and they were helped to the utmost.
Glen,
I think you’ll find that actually occurs. For example, of the people aboard the Tampa, i believe 1 of them was considered not to be a genuine refugee. And was deported.
That we spent millions of dollars around the pacific, broke international law and needlessly demonised a vulnerable group of people etc seems like a giant waste of time given that DIAC would’ve followed the same protocol as i outlined before.
I haven’t seen Antony Green on this site much recently. Has the ABC banned him from contributing after serious allegations of bias on this site?
George, actually alot of Iraqis have gone to into Syria to apply for refugee status, why would they go to Afghanistan?
Michael…you are right again…..that is why they need to lose big time in this election so the more decent ones are heard.
243
Let It End
I’ll happily raise the white flag to you in a debate about the worth of The Australian’s political commentary. It is a disgrace, Shanahan should be sacked and I reckon that a lot of the w#nkers currently imbibing down at the Evil Star at the moment know it.
But no, Shanahan is not typical of journalism today. He’s typical of a type of journalist who has been around forever and a day. (Read up on the career of William Randolph Hearst and you’ll get my point.) If he was as left-wing biased as he is right-wing, I doubt I’d hear a peep out of many here.
That said, I do wish he’d just far cough. He makes my brain hurt.
272
VoterBoy of Over the Water Says:
November 9th, 2007 at 9:24 pm
Folks, while I don’t want to get into a sh*tfight on this, I just want to make an observation about Glen’s modus operandi, based on this exchange on refugees and a lengthy and bitter one he and I had the other day about Cornelia Rau.
…
And I would add that this method has positives in it for Glen. He is the centre of attention, and is afforded the opportunity to deliver endless volumes of lib-spin, all in the guise of blog-freedom. It is pure sabotage.
Jasmine 258
‘The real question is exactly what has Howard done with the 1000’s of billions he has deprived the states of?’
I think it’s pretty clear that in the past he has used it to buy re-election. This time it’s not going to work!
The only thing which makes this election important is the repudiation of John Howard’s methods. It is the last chance for John Howard to lose – the last chance to prove that you can win votes as easily by being like Peter Andren as you can by being like John Howard.
That makes it important. After this election, nothing matters…
not long now: jubilation is coming
“George, actually alot of Iraqis have gone to into Syria to apply for refugee status, why would they go to Afghanistan?” – No Glen, they haven’t “applied” they’ve simply entered Syria and now there is an enormous humitarian crisis brewing with many living in terrible conditions. Regardless, Australia’s immigration policy implemented by Howard is a disgrace.
Have a look at Adam’s graphs:
http://psephos.adam-carr.net/countries/a/australia/polls.shtml
The Morgan face to face is doing its own thing and has a quite definite trend *upwards*.
Now given that it may not be a good predictor of the actual outcome, the question is, what *is* it measuring? Even when all is said and done, I’d love to know what the germ of truth is behind this beasty. Maybe, just maybe, the other polls have missed something?
Again, does anyone know when ACN is out???
Grog – next friday i think
Blindoptimist, let me get this straight, my free speech (yes i know we have no such right in Australia) and an alternative view to the ‘we love Rudd’ atmosphere on this blog is somehow sabotage, that’s just stupid blindoptimist. I might be a Liberal member but i don’t get paid by them or told to do anything for them, except hand out how to vote cards on the 24th so let’s just drop this insane witch hunt that i am a troll?
I am only the centre of discussion because you lefties never get the chance to debate a right winger and you are sick of listening to our side of politics so you trash the bejesus out of me.
Michael….I hope your wish will be granted in 15 days….it’ll be good for all.
Trevor, if someone like nicole Cornes can win a seat in this election then maybe 62-38 is underestimating labors lead.
George actually they have from Syria applied for refugee status in other countries from there. Yes there are lots of them in Syria who have no intention of applying for refugee status in other countries but some have.
“And I would add that this method has positives in it for Glen. He is the centre of attention, and is afforded the opportunity to deliver endless volumes of lib-spin, all in the guise of blog-freedom. It is pure sabotage.”
blindoptimist and VoterBoy of Over the Water, I guess you’re right. No way I’m gonna make him see that he is supporting filth at the end of the day (he’s probably a Lib plant anyway). I end communication with him now – sorry to everyone if I’ve taken away from other discussions
Pages: « 1 … 4 5 [6] 7 8 … 14 » Show All