That Roy Morgan release discussed in the previous post has now been supplemented with data from last weekend’s face-to-face poll, and it shows a hard-to-credit blowout in the Labor lead to a “record” 62-38, from 57.5-42.5 the previous week. The Coalition’s primary vote is down from 39 per cent to 34 per cent, while Labor’s is up from 49 per cent to 54.5 per cent. The sample size was 990 compared with 552 from the phone poll.
Reflections on the Miracle of Democracy at Work in the Greatest Nation on Earth
Morgan face-to-face: 62-38
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Ah the WSJ, that paper widley read by those in marginal seats…. Pity his portrait looks more like George Brandis.
331
Let It End
Well, we might just have to agree completely then, LIE. Who’d a thunk.
*who needs the msm for opinion, that is
Glen,
My parents were refugees who bullshitted to get into Australia.
They came on fake papers and lied lied lied, precisely to get around the sanctimonious crap peddled by the then Australian government.
Every refugee at the time knew what you needed to do/say and did the same.
Good on them.
There is no queue There are no rules.
That’s what being a refugee is like.
Grow up!
blindoptimist 337….
so glen is from crosby/textor hey. Well if he was ordered to go on PB by his Exclusive Brethren mates to find some info to help the Libs win this election.. he has failed magnificiently… 2 weeks and he is out of a job.
Someone wanted a theme song for the election. Here’s my candidate:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JFUabzkAjBQ
It was FDR’s campaign song in 1932, and what better pedigree could you want? The song sung to celebrate the election of the greatest progressive democratic leader of the past century.
The Wall Street Journal, while it contains a lot of good journalism, is somewhere to the right of Attila the Hun. Whoever their Australian correspondent is, they are seriously deluded about Australian politics. Unlike the Daily Howard, however, the WSJ is honest about its politics – it’s a Republican businessman’s paper and makes no bones about it.
Seamus @ 181,
{As much as a hate to defend Costello, 48 weeks per year (4 weeks holidays), 5 days per week at $1000 per day does actually add up to $240,000 a year.}
Hey, Seamus, was that a yarn about a brickie laying 1000 bricks per day at $1 per brick.
If so, Hockey was spruking that one a week ago up north, but his brickie was working 7 days a week and earning a half million a year,
Oh, the wonders of workchoices.
Que jumpers? Is Manuel from Fawlty Towers one of these?
If Newspoll is believed, Rudd is going to get about 66% of the 18 – 24 year old vote. That’s about a 10% swing for that demographic to Labor since last election.
But keep in mind 40% of voters are 55+, which is the only demographic the government is leading in. But its lead is only a few percent, so in pure statistical terms it should be considered 50/50.
Pi i didn’t bring up this debate on immigration just so you know, your attacks on me are plainly just childish name-calling ‘you’re a so and so’ very lame and very immature Pi in my books.
“…people have seen their children and family die horrible deaths because of the demonization that is perpetuated by the people you support (Howard).”
Well this is interesting you vile hatred of John Howard goes to the extent to saying he has been responsible for people seeing their families die because of your belief that Howard has somehow demonised asylum seekers?
I’m not sure a Tory regardless of how ‘immature of stupid’ you think we all are would say Hawke or Keating was responsible for people seeing their families die because of them. This is just low base politics from you Pi.
Let’s just stick to this ridicules poll by Morgan, why even Yougov could have more accurate polls and they aren’t even here!
349
HarryH Says:
November 9th, 2007 at 10:02 pm
this thread is why pollbludger is good for one’s sanity.
…..
Yes Harry, a bludge now and then is good for the soul
#345. I think it’s about passion and strongly held views. In 11 years’ time you’ll find passionate right-wingers trying to oust the Labor government. By then some of us on the left may also be hoping for a Liberal government! I have no problem voting for Malcolm Fraser or Petro Georgiou as PM.
Jasmine….the fact she has a law degree is neither here nor there. She has voted for Howard at previous elections. She got the gig cos her famous footballer husband didn’t want it. She clearly has no idea about politics, nor scant understanding of what the Labor party is about. She can barely string two words together.
Whats her record in community service, what are her views on social justice, what does she think of trade unions and their importance, what has she done that would make her a valuable member of the labor party? On the occassions when I’ve seen her asked basic questions she’s replied like an a grade airhead. We don’t need any more people like that in parliament – there’s already enough.
The fact that she’s a women has nothing to do with it and it really gets tedious being accused of sexism whenever criticism is directed at the capacity of a woman.
On the question of whether and by how much Morgan overstates Labor:
I’ve looked at the polls, averaged each month, since the start of 2006. Morgan’s two party preferred ALP vote, based on how people say they will direct preferences in its FTF survey, has averaged about 1.3 percentage points above Nielsen’s. Newspoll has averaged about 1.0 below Nielsen. So Nielsen has, on average, been in the middle. Most months, Morgan has given the highest ALP 2PP vote.
Since Galaxy entered the fray in March this year, it has averaged about 2 points below Nielsen. In the majority of months it has given the lowest ALP 2PP vote.
It appears that since it came into the fray in May, Morgan’s phone survey has been averaging only slightly above Nielsen, though of course it’s less reliable because of the much smaller sample size.
While Antonio at #155 provides a plausible explanation as to why Morgan overstates Labor’s 2PP vote, I’m not sure why the phone polls would have such differences amongst themselves on average.
The divergence between Morgan’s FTF and the other polls in this most recent round is much greater than can be explained by Morgan’s tendency to overstate ALP 2pp, and is clearly an outlier. But the overall pattern of the polls is consistent with the notion that across the population it’s presently 55-45 or even 56-44.
The panic evident in Coalition advertising and rhetoric is also consistent with that notion.
Frank Devine has been quiet. He should write a story on Alexandra.
I know this is too late for this election, but do anyone here know much about this proposed online Fairfax paper, the Perth Leader? Any likelihood that it might be more centrist than the West Australian?
He’s the dead part of Frankenmiranda Devine
Adam 356. The Wall Street Journal itself is not a raucous right-wing paper. It’s editorial/opinion pages are far-right, and this caused some heartache among the news reporters, who did not drag their crazy bias into every story. The paper itself is very respectable. Or certainly was.
Adam, thank you so much. My grandmother used to sing and play that song. She played piano for silent movies and music halls. My father used to sing it as we drove off on holidays in the car, and I can sing it too.
Nothing like a depression to get the optimistic songs going…
355
Dazzamack from Perth Says:
November 9th, 2007 at 10:04 pm
blindoptimist 337….
so glen is from crosby/textor hey. Well if he was ordered to go on PB by his Exclusive Brethren mates to find some info to help the Libs win this election.. he has failed magnificiently… 2 weeks and he is out of a job.
…..
well, they like to fight in the blogosphere as well as the radio stations, news columns and shopping centres of this wide land: at least in here they can gain some kind of a reaction from the unsuspecting blogophiles….but i suspect that win or lose, the glens or this realm will not fade away
Commentary about Australian politics in the O/S press is often an amusing read. I can’t recall the detail but I think there was a piece in Saturday’s Age reprinted from a British newspaper which claimed the Libs were coming back and were favoured to win the election. Had to laugh.
Derek Corbett,
Expect a reply.
I recently sent a complaint to Mitchell regarding the GG’s Newspoll analysis, and urged him to take a look at Possum for a does of polling reality. I received a nasty, caustic, dismissive and sarcastic response. Mitchell informed me that he reads all of the politics blogs every single day. So there you go.
Frank wrote a story involving Viagra on the 2Nov. He simply doesn’t care anymore.
Winston,
The only paper in the UK that seems to give a stuff about Aussie politics is the conservative Telegraph (or should I say Torygraph).
The liberal Guardian/Observer don’t seem to care too much about Rudd or Howard…
Sean @ 363. The fact that she’s not as articulate as others doesn’t mean she has nothing to offer.
Given that few of us are great public speakers, especially under pressure, you’d also be assuming that we also have nothing to offer.
Although not the candidate I would have chosen, I think she IS representative of the general community & would be in a good position to take those everyday concerns to parliament.
Having tried to deal with “career MPs” before over a couple of issues, I realise that they actually have little interest in their electorate, let alone any inclination to discuss genuine concerns.
From the little I’ve seen of her, I suspect that at least she’d give you the time of day, unlike the twats I mentioned before (Pyne, Southcott).
bludging is over for me for now…..cheerio fellow psephomaniacs
Re 356,
Adam Says:
I think that is a little too old, although otherwise appropriate. I was searching out some usable ones today myself and for the moment (still looking in case I get a better one) – I think the winner is this one, imho
:) .
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sogKUx_q7ig
He must be a glutton for punishment. The fact that Kevin Rudd is his son’s godfather gives you some idea of the heat Murdoch must put on his editors.
Jasmine. I think Nicole Cornes is in the last year of law. And Derek, I was trying to correct the commonly held view that she has a law degree and is therefore highly credible (as if a law degree matters anyway, look at the liberal front bench). For God’s sake, she voted for the person she’s running against at the last election. That’s gotta be a first!
Morgan poll reported on ninemsn:
http://news.ninemsn.com.au/article.aspx?id=321505
antonio @ 345
could it be that the overwhelming amount of blog and comment on the net is anti this government is exactly because said people have access to and read the net.
they have access to the truth.
the bulk of Howards remaining support now is among our elderly who are still reading the papers and listening to the radio.
Morgan also reported on news.com.au:
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,22733408-29277,00.html
I need to do the washing up before watching Lateline. Thanks folks, it’s been fun.
LOL, the headline is “Morgan Poll shows Labor with a good lead”
Yeah, 24% lead is ok.
378
Diogenes Says:
November 9th, 2007 at 10:17 pm
Jasmine. I think Nicole Cornes…. voted for the person she’s running against at the last election. That’s gotta be a first!
….
That’s not a problem for me, Diogenes. At least she’s running now! And she voted against Mark Latham – like 65% of the population.
356 Adam
Best First Lady ever http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eleanor_Roosevelt, would have made an outstanding president.
Triffid
Look I might be wrong, but she strikes me as not the sort of person who would be ‘representative of the community’.
And yes, not everyone’s a great speaker but in politics you preferably should have a modicum of speaking/communication skills in addition to some core political values and I’m not sure that she does..
Sean you are right. If the alp win 75 seats and Nicole is one of them I will join your quest for purity and authenticity in candidature and campaign for her to stand down as shockingly unsuitable for the elevated arts practiced in Canberra and elsewhere across our widearsed brown land. Who else have you subjected to the blowtorch and found wanting. Let’s make a list.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22733408-12377,00.html
Morgan on GG
I wonder why they didnt talk about the F2F
Here’s the winning campaign jingle from the 1988 NSW State Election.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w7P59YBoz_o
Here’s the difference with the polls at the moment. I see the Gold Cost poll on the other thread and get p*ssed at the thought the ALP won’t win every seat.
I still think the ALP will only get 80 seats. But then 12 months ago I would have laughed if anyone had suggested I’d use “only” in that last sentence.
The fact that Cornes voted for Howard in 2004 shows she is ignorant on issues that should be important to a Labor candidate. She has no credibility whatsoever and is a complete embarrassment.
If she was in my electorate I would not vote for her. She would get my preferences above the Lib candidate, but she’d be somewhere down the bottom.
Quite interesting that Morgan actually released their F2F given that their telephone poll was pretty much in line with others and that they were so different. He didn’t have to. Unlike the other 3 pollsters Morgan doesn’t get paid for his polls (probably because none of the media outlets can stand him).
Imagine if one of the other pollsters got a similar result – they’d be trying all sorts of weighting options.
Burt I suspect that he is loving the attention.
Reading those links to the Morgan story shows how much of the journalism in this country is just cut’n'pasting media releases.
‘Jasmine….the fact she has a law degree is neither here nor there.’
I beg to differ, if elected she will be a legislator, any legal studies helps her here. I have a law degree we call each other ‘learned friends’ for a reason. Not the be all nor an end all, but it is called the new arts degree for two reasons.
‘She has voted for Howard at previous elections.’ So has more than half the voting public at all but one of his victories, it isn’t a crime. It makes her a better candidate not a worse one.
‘She got the gig cos her famous footballer husband didn’t want it.’ Do you have evidence of this? I mean like you talked to the decision makers, not read something in a gossip magazine or newspaper? It looks very sexist indeed, it seems to start with an assumption she is inferior to her husband, not a good look for someone so sensitive about being called sexist.
“She clearly has no idea about politics, nor scant understanding of what the Labor party is about.” And that differentiates her how? It means she isn’t a party person, not a machine person? Is that bad? I was at the last state convention and I can’t tell you what the labor party is about.
“She can barely string two words together.” this is a foolish thing to say she writes for a living. Perhaps you mean “not a polished visual media performer” in which case having refined your argument from ridiculous to plausible it still doesn’t distinguish her from 3/4 of the candidates in the election (ignoring minor party candidates).
“Whats her record in community service, what are her views on social justice, what does she think of trade unions and their importance, what has she done that would make her a valuable member of the labor party?”
OK you want her less in touch with the electorate like us political class, I understand that .. it does not diminish her as an electable candidate IMHO.
On the occassions when I’ve seen her asked basic questions she’s replied like an a grade airhead. We don’t need any more people like that in parliament – there’s already enough.
Yeah you might be right on the first one, but I don’t think you are and it is a matter of opinion, but you are secondly right on the second one, but this is what makes you sexist. Almost all those airheads are males and were not attacked and mocked and ridiculed in the disgusting way you are mocking her. And to then suggest those airhead boys already in the game disqualify her is incredibly poorly thought out even if you are trying to be sexist which I assume you are not. I’m giving you the benefit of the doubt and assuming it is one of those unfortunate cultural things you haven’t escaped from.
The fact that she’s a women has nothing to do with it and it really gets tedious being accused of sexism whenever criticism is directed at the capacity of a woman.
I beg to differ the fact that she is a woman seems to be the ONLY thing you have to distinguish her from the other candidates you are not attacking.
Paisano
Brilliant rejoinder – how can i argue with such devastating logic
There’s nothing puritanical about parliamentary standards and the fact that you’re sarcastic about the ‘elevated arts practiced in canberra’ suggests that you’ve accepted too many candidates like nicole. I’ll leave you to your list..
Ashley @ 392.
You could also argue that her change in views are also representative of the change in heart the rest of the community is having if you’re to believe the polls.
Trioli on Lateline!!!!
Laura Tingle on LL.
Lateline has John Howard biographer tonight. Should be riveting!
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