The Age has published the third of ACNielsen’s online polls, which are taken from a representative sample of around 1400 volunteer market research subjects. It shows Labor leading 56-44 on two-party preferred, the same result as the previous such survey a fortnight ago. However, Labor’s primary vote is down two points to 45 per cent, with the Coalition also down a point to 40 per cent. John Howard has picked up three points on the preferred leader question directly at the expense of Kevin Rudd, whose lead is now 50 per cent to 42 per cent.
Reflections on the Miracle of Democracy at Work in the Greatest Nation on Earth
574 Comments
Line honours?
I guess we can really only tell how good these online polls are after the election. They do seem to fit the general narrative and fall within the ranges of the other polls though.
Yay.
This poll certainly suggests to me that the narrowing in Newspoll is at the other end of an MOE around the 54-5 mark. In other words, nothing has happened since the beginning of the campaign.
Huge lead to Labor.
Just 2 more weeks.
Just 2 more weeks.
Night All,
GG – You wanted to play with the big dog, what can I say?
That means we have the morgan phone poll at 56/44
The Nielsen online @ 56/44
The Morgan F2F (which most people wanna discount 5 points) @ 62/38 adj to 57/43
Total sample works out to about 3000 voters
Narrowing is now at best an optical illusion caused by sitting to close to the computer screen
Narrowings exist. But the idea that they happen simply by virtue of the incumbent calling the election appears to be pure fantasy.
What can I say. Labor way ahead. Keep it going Kev. Don’t let up ever.
Umm.. someone please explain to me the difference between the regular ACN and the ACN online?
OMG the sky news online election coverage (linked from news ltd online sites) is only spruiking Howard Ministers!!!
The only thing narrowing for Howard is the time to Election day, when he can say I am sorry I didn’t win, but that is not an apology.
Blatant propaganda from Sky, but that is the nature of the beast. Lots of air time given to Labor bashing and little else
the buffer is holding. and this week has been a shocker for the coalition. this could possibly come off.
Same old same old, no change and no chance for Howie. Would be in everyone’s best interest to bring the election forward and get it over with. I don’t think I can stand another 14 days of watching the senile old fool bumbling around.
well, let’s think about this poll as if the results were reversed.
If the Coalition were up 56/44 2 weeks from an election, we’d all be crying into our beers. So why is it that some of us (including myself) still feel nervous about the election result?
let it end. i have to disagree with you there. i’m really quite enjoying it.
Funny Lathan was irrevelant to Libs last election, what has changed this time, maybe the Libs have something in common with Lathan, they are now irrevelant.
I took part in the ACN Online Poll. It’s conducted through their market research ‘Your Voice’ site and has questions at the beginning of the poll to get gender, age and location. Once their quota for each category is full you get a ‘thanks but no thanks’ message, so that side of the sampling is pretty good.
This Poll was pretty straight forward, with the only really interesting thing being that there were two preferred PM questions, one Howard vs Rudd and the second had the two front benches squaring off.
This research tool is mostly used for marketing stuff, so I guess if people are willing to pay for it the data mustn’t be too bad.
Swing @ 14
Tampa, children overboard, interest rates, Terrorists…Union Bosses
Howard strikes back.
http://davefromalbury.wordpress.com/2007/11/09/howard-has-a-bad-day-campaigning/
{OMG the sky news online election coverage (linked from news ltd online sites) is only spruiking Howard Ministers!!!}
This is Howard’s “rabbit out of the hat” his new “Tampa”.
Total media coverage for the Coalition and none for Labor.
Labor now reduced to myface and on-line blogs.
Now we get to the fun bit.
Will they tear each other apart, spontaneously self combust or carry on the narrowing mirage in a forlorn hope that planet delusional may just come true?
re 18
Did i mention they were all campaigns about a plan for the future?
Rudd now on sky
From the previous thread. Great picture.
Might see a bit of this on el;ection night.
{Drunken ‘ladettes’ boast of exploits online }
http://news.ninemsn.com.au/article.aspx?id=319457
In poker terms Howard has been blinded all-in (meaning run out of chips until he only had enough to post the compulsory blind/ante and not bet during the hand he was forced to play)
for poker players who visit this site check out more howard poker comparisons
http://www.texas-holdem-australia.com/?p=172
There isn’t a net feed of Sky?
mad cow
Try this link
http://www.news.com.au/live/popup
Augurs well, but the good fight is still being fought, back to the trenches. Rudds got to maintain the rage til election day. And we’ve got to tell ppl.
works
@ 11 Sinic Says:
Does anybody watch Sky News? Except shift workers I mean.
Re # 17 – I also took part in the ACN Online Poll via their Your Voice site. Voting intentions came early in the list of questions, so I played the ‘undecided’ card to see just where the poll would lead. As Dave from Albury said it was “relatively straightforward”. Quite credible in my view, apart from being slightly skewed by my unwillingness to declare my true colours.
A quick quizz.
http://petermartin.blogspot.com/2007/11/quick-quiz-whats-wrong-with-this-graph.html
Why should Skynooz get away with electioneering for the Liberal party? Doesn’t that make them corrupt?
50% of AWAs fail the fairness test:
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22733701-601,00.html
“JOHN Howard’s industrial laws were branded a shambles last night, with the revelation that half of all wage deals checked by the Coalition’s workplace watchdog have failed the “fairness test” and been sent back to employers for correction.”
Rudd has got to go all out attack tomorrow over this.
“WorkChoices is bad for workers because it strips pay and conditions, bad for business because it is ridiculously complex, and bad for the government because it unnecessarily bloats the bureaucracy”
Rudd on Sky News
Try this link
http://www.news.com.au/live/popup
Will not be truly happy until the beast has a stake in the heart but this is good news. No narrowing.
Newspoll will be interesting, Shanahan can’t rort that can he?
Fun way of getting back at any enemies you have who happen to vote Labor
1. Visit public computer.
2. Complete form here:
http://www.liberal.org.au/contact/volunteer.php
Result: Victim’s ire directed at Liberal Party.
spot on showson!
More proof that not everybody is coping well under Howard.
“The study revealed that NSW accounted for the greatest proportion of insolvencies in the six months, with close to 50 per cent, with Victoria at 25 per cent. It also showed that companies with fewer than 20 employees accounted for 74.4 per cent of insolvencies in the first half of 2007, an increase of 6.9 per cent on the previous corresponding period.
A number of sectors have also seen an increase in insolvency numbers in the half-year, with agriculture, mining, construction, financial services, retail trade and wholesale trade all up.
The financial services sector accounted for the greatest proportion of insolvencies at 38.2 per cent, some 26.5 per cent ahead of the wholesale sector, which had the second-highest proportion of insolvencies in the first half.”
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22732427-643,00.html
Umm.. ahhh.. so.. when’s the next polls coming?
Newspoll Tuesday.
Maybe an AC Nielsen phone-poll on Monday.
So 3 more newspolls and 2 more ACNs?
Even Bloomberg has tagged Howard as a potential casualty:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aVY1uFR0DGvw&refer=home
You know I think David Speers from Sky is really not too bad. I know a few people here can’t stand him, but he does a pretty good job considering the conservative audience that would watch Sky news (esp. the oldies).
Secondly : What’s this line from the Coalition that Labor has no plan to manage inflation? Rudd has been pretty clear in addressing the skills shortage and investing in infrastructure. Surely they can’t expect to get away with this line?
Morgan made an interesting point. Maybe the coalition is just playing into the hands of the Your Rights at Work Campaign when it tries to swing the debate back onto the economy.
“The renewed focus on finance and the economy would reinstate the industrial relations debate in voters’ minds, Mr Morgan said.”
http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,22733408-29277,00.html
Matt
I agree the coalition line on managing inflation is nonsense, but they aren’t “getting away with it” The poll result shows that most people see through it.
To me this poll is gold – much better than the 62/38 Morgan F2F, because I have worked with A C Neilsen and think they have a pretty good reputation for both being unbiased and accurate. Plug this one into Antony Green’s calculator and you won’t be far wrong.
Liberals, beat the rush and go there now – seek.com
Hi Shows On
just rang the Aus and spoke to quite a young journo and mentioned that the headline for this story totally misrepresented Brad Norringtons work:
“Red Tape strangling AWAs”
give me a break
the story is about the fact that 50% of deals are failing the “fairness test” ie,
“JOHN Howard’s industrial laws were branded a shambles last night, with the revelation that half of all wage deals checked by the Coalition’s workplace watchdog have failed the “fairness test” and been sent back to employers for correction.
The Workplace Authority confirmed 26,833 agreements had been knocked back for failing to comply with minimum standards since the Prime Minister introduced the fairness test in May.”
So how does a sub get to write the headline about red tape?
what a pathetic excuse for journalism this is
even the poor person i spoke too had no answer, except “the journalist doesn’t write the headline” – we know
I said that brad norrington is a good journalist and doesn’t deserve to have his work misrepresented by such a misleading headline (as we know that most punters don’t actually read articles)
and I asked this poor young journalist how she would feel if her work was marketed by such a misleading headline?
sorry to say but i asked her to read the story and if she could justify the headline she was quite entitled to stay at the aus, but otherwise she should find herself a job as a real journalist…
and then i mentioned shanahan’s nonsense…
its time these journos took accountability…
their work is being mediated and they should come over to the free world of the blogs….
but then they wouldn’t be paid to toe the party line…
bon nuit
Well, I’ve been a sceptic for a while, not believing that Labor can win, hoping for all I’m worth that I’m wrong, but today I’m calling it.
Howard can’t win from here. Full stop, End.
Yaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay!!!
Rudd needs to go harder on that point that Howard says WorkChoices will limit wage increases to the most productive areas of the economy.
This is an admission that WorkChoices will (in real terms) cut wages for low and middle income earners.
Looking at the last series of polls for the Liberal party primary:
Morgan……..36.5,37,37,38,36.5,31.5,36
the Galaxy……37,37,34,36,39,37
AC Neilsen……39,41,39,37,40,42,41,41,40 [not seperate from Nats]
Newspolls…….36,34,37,36,36,34,38,37
Together they seem to show the Liberal primary tailing off – There is a little hint here that three weeks into the campaign we have reached ‘peak’ Liberal party primary. They got a little boost when the election was called and nothing else.
They only disturbing thing is the drop in Labor primary by 2% gone to probably the Greens. Hopefully just a sample variation – better to have the primary firmly attached.
Howard looks to me looks like he hasn’t had a good week – cannot see any reason why anybody would decided to move to the LNP. Unless it is because Skynews, ABC and the GG electioneering for Howard.
You are exactly right. The article is that only 1 in 2 businesses can figure out what a proper AWA looks like. It has nothing to do with bureaucracy. The bureaucracy is doing its job, finding employers trying to intentionally, or other wise, rip off their workers.
How many seats will Labor win? Most people on this blog say 85 – 87.
I say 85.
“Rudd needs to go harder on that point that Howard says WorkChoices will limit wage increases to the most productive areas of the economy”
Rudd had the perfect argument with the double whammy – workchoices takes wages away, higher interest rates asks you pay more. Howard is hitting you twice.
And now a message of encouragement from the Mother Country.
http://www.amazon.co.uk/Were-You-Still-Up-Portillo/dp/0140272372
Observe the two men in this photo. Observe the one smiling in the background. He is a Labour man. You will see many of those smiles from Labor men and women in a fortnight’s time.
See the man at the front. He is a Tory. He is not a bad man; nevertheless he is a sad man. You will see lots of sad Tories in a fortnight’s time.
Look back at this photo over the coming days. My fervent desire and hope for you all is that it will settle your nerves before Armageddon and the merciless slaughter and bloodbath that will rightly follow (yea, verily).
Everyone, sign my petition so we can see Keating V Hewson – the re-match on the Lateline before election day. It is here:
http://www.petitiononline.com/lateline/petition.html
Yes, I want to hear more of that. He could even add that he offers a tax cut that will get eaten up by inflation.
Dave @ 17
The fact that it’s self selected is a bit of a worry but great result nonetheless
Hi Shows On et al
I think that at the end of this campaign examples like shanahans on the car industry and tonights misrepresentation of norrington’s article via a midleading headline should all be collated and kept as a distinct thread, website whatever, so that the GG’s distorted view of the campaign is properly recorded for future reference
(obviously this will be more fun if howard doesn’t win!!)
but still, i reckon this blog amongst others has done a fantastic job in catching out the MSM (ie, they like to play gotcha against everyone else but don’t like the role reversal) and we deserve to collate a listing of the best/worst examples of bias on the face of the record if nothing else
sure the journos will bitch and moan, but they won’t be able to argue with the record in black and white..
for once and for all we can nail the MSM for their sleights of hand, so why not…
and sometime its the small things like the headline on norringtons piece that reveal the true extent of the malevolence…
kina @ 50. Interesting to see the trend (or lack of it) in the Liberal primaries. We here a lot about reaching “peak oil”, maybe we have reached “peak Liberal.”
I just can’t see how they can recover from here.
I was one of the people predicting 87 seats to Labor previously but according to Antony greens calculator if the 56/44 result holds on election night the score would be:
Labor 96
Coalition 52
Independant 2
If that is teh case I think Howard should be the first to adopt a new slogan:
Kevin11
Because if they lose this badly Rudd will have enough of a buffer for at least two terms.
I can go to sleep happy now
Get Real. I agree. I’d also include the bizarre ‘gay’ non-story today, and (continuing the theme), Glenn Milne’s nasty little piece which noisily called on Rudd to distance himself from the gay-baiting of a Coalition MP, even though Rudd had nothing to do with it, the story itself clearly admitted that Labor had nothing to do with it, and all the evidence showed the rumours had come from the Right.
It isn’t self selected. They have a database of 90,000 people, from that they do a weighting for demographics, and select the sample who are then polled.
I think Labor will get 53 on election night. About the same as what they got in 1983.
I think the last time a party got 56 was the landslide to Holt in 1966.
It is a twice in a century event, I just don’t think it is going to happen.
Steven Twigg is a noob, and he lost his seat in the next election.
#47 GetReal
Champion stuff mate, I tips me lid and bows to you, bloody well done champ.
Glen @ 61. No he didn’t. So you’re either lying or stupid. Which is it?
We all rip on the GG, but lets face it.
Come 24 November, we can all laugh in its face. Like this HAAHAHAHAHAHAHAH.
People keep saying “Rudd has to do this, Rudd has to do that”.
Wrong. The electorat’s mind is made up. A year of continuous polling is the proof.
The only thing Kev needs to do is defend. Not be caught up in some terrible scandal.
Labor will win, I am calling it. And my word, will I ever celebrate.
By the way, the limericks and haikus on this site have been hilarious and brilliant, keep em up.
Stand corrected in 2005 he lost.
He can’t choose between the two without lying.
Still it is a Tory seat now Voterboy.
Glen @ 65. That’s correct. But you still haven’t answered my question. Are you a liar or just stupid?
I hope we don’t get any more fabricated stories helping the Liberal party.
I’m sure some journalists and editors would appreciate the irony of being invited to a star chamber examination after the election.
Sometimes Glen has some very valid points to make, sometimes he’s just blatantly waving the liberal flag. Everyone does it here, for whichever party they support.
Sometimes I feel sorry with the treatment he gets, because its not always justified.
But then I remember how I felt in 1996, then again in 1998, then again in 2001, and again in 2004.
Ricky the only uncertainty I have left is where and how to party
Neither.
If anybody is interested the biggest swing in the last 50 years was to Whitlam the election before he won government of around 7.5%. The next biggest swing was against Whitlam three elections later. Could it be Turnbull13.
Glen reminds me more of Dr Strangelove all the time.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iesXUFOlWC0
Especially when he calls Howard “uncie Howie”.
Glen @ 72. Given that the safest answer would have been ‘both’, I’ll take that as an admission that you’re a liar.
Can someone start a “people power” campaign AGAINST sub editors writing misleading headlines like the ‘oz’ today “Red tape strangling AWA’s” when in fact the ACTUAL story was about statistics showing 1/2 AWA’s decreased existing worker’s wages ????
ShowsOn i can’t remember who said it first but it wasn’t me and i merely used it to show that lefties stupidity.
JTV story on Young Volunteers in Bennelong.
http://abc.net.au/jtv/video/FRIDAY.htm?clip=youngvolunteers
That is your opinion voterboy, but i thought you believe all tories were liars?
Oh no! Glen has just said the liars paradox!
You say “All tories are liars”
Does this mean they are liars? Or, since you are a tory, does it mean you lied, and they aren’t all liars?
Tories are too post-modernist for my liking this week.
Glen @ 79. My next door neighbour is a Tory councillor. Great bloke. My younger daughter’s Godfather is a senior Liberal Party staffer. You’ve even see me refer to him on here from time to time. He’s a fine, fine man. I even have friendly relations with Liberal and National MPs. My former boss was a big fundraiser for the Liberal 500 Club, and we used to joke about how hopeless Howard was in dealing with Hanson.
No, Glen, I’ve never said all Tories are liars, I’ve never given the impression that all Tories were liars, and I’ve often made it clear on here that I don’t believe that.
You, however, are a liar.
If i am a Tory ShowsOn what does that make you?
The long-suffering loyals in the Howard camp will be watching with alarm as ‘their man’ flounders on the trail and the polls continue flatlining. Mistakes and wrong-footedness will become more frequent as they lose their nerve in anticipation of the whole thing ending in tears. Soon they will start breaking ranks, dishing up the dirt on their fellows, scrambling to redeem themselves from the slip down the slippery slope.
I’m a libertarian.
I think the government is too big both in terms of economics and social issues.
I think the government should spend our money more wisely, and should get out of lots of areas of social interaction such as censorship, and other forms of regulation.
What do you believe in, cos the coalition doesn’t seem to believe in anything anymore.
What proof do you have that i am a liar voterboy?
When have i deliberately lied to you?
Rx, I’ve got my popcorn
ShowsOn, I take it you’ve read “The High Price of Heaven”. Says it all about how Howard has tried to turn us backwards socially.. Back to the relaxed and comfortable 50s (puke).
Glen @ 85:
Well, I could say…
“it’s no one statement that totally, well very rarely, is it one statement that totally sort of, adumbrates the whole thing. It’s the aggregate impression.”
And it’s the aggregate impression of a liar, a misleader, a dissembler, a falsifier, a peddler of falsehoods, untruths and mendacity.
Hey, but that’s just my opinion.
Glen! Where’s your name on the petition!?
This is about the rematch – Keating V Hewson – on Lateline!
http://www.petitiononline.com/lateline/petition.html
I haven’t read that, but I’ve read Marr’s other book on children overboard.
AC comes through with the goods. Lovely set of numeros!
Roll on 24th. Soowee, I am going to have a big one!
Howard ???????
Has trouble with speaking straight and not a nice PM.
???????
chinese characters wont come through…too bad.
85
Glen Says:
November 10th, 2007 at 2:17 am
What proof do you have that i am a liar voterboy?
When have i deliberately lied to you?
{enter south park music}
“dumb dumb dumb dumb dumb”
Who’s at the keyboard now – Kina or Mrs Kina?
Howard actually promised this to the Australian Children’s Telivision Foundation earlier this year and was meant to be announced during the Budget.
http://www.news.com.au/perthnow/story/0,21598,22734450-5005361,00.html
http://www.allenandunwin.com/default.aspx?page=94&book=9781865084220
Let me guess – more road funding for Seasame Street?
Mrs Kina is snoozing on couch… not well tonight. I do some Chinese as well.
I agree that government should spend our money wisely, i think there needs to be some level of censorship in society but it doesn’t need to be ultra strict. I do think the Coalition believes in something, they’ve not sold themselves as well this time round mind you neither has Labor but that doesn’t really matter now.
I am your classic Tory but i differ from some Tories on some social issues when it comes to abortion and stem cell research i am in support of these measures. I believe in freedom, to choose the school you want for your kids, the childcare you want, the car you want to drive, how you spend your money i am a big believer in tax cuts and giving the people the choice as to how they spend their own money they can do a better job than government. The less government interference the better when it comes to affecting my life that’s what i want. I am a big believer in privatisation and an even bigger believer that the market should play an increased role in providing services not the government, if the market and business can do a better job they should be allowed to get on with the job (private health insurance, private schools).
I also believe that schools should teach politics and legal studies to all students from year 8 to 10, there must be a way of teaching people politics without one side saying we’re brainwashing the other i think it is important because so few people actually give a damn about happens in politics and they should.
I am a strong believer in the ANZUS alliance and a close relationship with the US regardless of who is President. I am a supporter of FTA’s even though they aren’t always perfect but when it comes to tariff reductions i think this can only occur if there is a level playing field and all countries reduce their tariffs. I am as you know a fan of nuclear power and have been for years, but that is not the silver bullet to our troubles and i agree more needs to be down with renewables.
I support what we are doing in Iraq and Afghanistan, i believe history will look favourably on us for what we’ve done providing we don’t leave before the job is done. I am all for leaving but only when conditions on the ground merit it otherwise we’d be doing what Osama wants.
I am not a Christian Conservative and i dislike the fact so many ‘religious’ people are on our side of politics about the only thing they and i agree on is regarding gay marriage and gay adoption i am in favour of neither but have no problem with civil partnerships or giving them the same economic rights as hetro couples. I don’t think we should ratify Kyoto but i do think we need to ratify a new agreement with China, India and the US involved and i think nuclear energy can help us here and at least play a part. I am a big believer in having standards for teachers and their pay tied to this because i believe we should be rewarding good teachers for the hard work they put in and the results they get.
I am sure there is more, but look what we really should do is despite all our political differences we should find the half a dozen things we actually agree on ShowsOn.
“98
ShowsOn Says:
November 10th, 2007 at 2:34 am
Let me guess – more road funding for Seasame Street?”
No, he wants the role of Statler or Waldorf, whichever dies first.
ShowsOn i like your petition idea very much but i just don’t think it will work the ABC are stubborn and will have Cameron and Kroger on then ugggh soooo boring!
Do you reckon rhyming would be sufficient grounds for Prime Minister Rudd to hold the next election in 2011, so he can use Kevin11?
Lemme think, the writs must be returned by 100 days after 17th October, which is 25th January (by my count) and then Parliament must meet within 30 days after that, being 24th February. So assuming that Kevin07 doesn’t try and call Parliament in the month between the election and Christmas, that would allow him to call an election in January of February 2011 to be held in March, thus restoring the pattern of March elections (1983, 1990, 1993, 1996), and also bringing the election of the Parliament much closer to Senate terms (with Senators taking office only three months later instead of 8 months later).
Here’s another thought: if we did institute fixed federal terms (either three or four years) wouldn’t we have to consider when states have their fixed terms? And if you wanted to avoid having a federal election fall at the same time as a state (as will happen in late 2010-early 2011 when we will have elections federally and in the two biggest states, meaning that about 57% of the Australian electorate would have both state and federal votes within a six-month period) you would need to extend federal terms to four years.
We currently have four year terms in all states and territories except Queensland and three states have fixed terms. This is broadly when in the four year cycle each one falls, starting next year
-ACT – October 2008
-WA – February 2009 (not fixed, but nearly always in Feb)
-NT – Middle of 2009 (not fixed, but always in June-August since 1994)
-Tas – Late 2009/Early 2010
-SA – February 2010
-VIC – November 2010
-NSW – March 2011
So what it shows is that only Tas, NT, Qld and Federal haven’t “claimed” a certain point on the four year cycle, WA isn’t technically fixed but apart from a December election in 1996 every election has been in February or March for a long long time. NT also
It would be an interesting exercise to lay out a four year plan for fixed four year terms that would spread everyone out.
-Federal – March Year 1 (being a leap year)
-ACT – October Year 1
-WA – February Year 2
-NT – August Year 2
-Tas – November Year 2
-SA – March Year 3
-Vic – November Year 3
-NSW – March Year 4
-Qld – September Year 4 (the hardest one to place)
Sorry, don’t know why I thought about this, I think cause someone referred to “Kevin11″, anyway, interesting idea.
I thought you said you were an Atheist Glen, bugger.
I am mad cow. I am not a christian conservative and if i were a yank id be pissed having to vote for them but hey.
Shows on I’d love to watch Keating and Hewson but I think it would just end up as a Howard loathing session.
I’m looking forward to seeing Kroger on election night saying: “That’s a terrible loss, X was such a good local member and the people of [name of electorate] will be poorer as a result.”
I reckon he’ll say 35 times.
Glen,
Well then you should have no problem with there being no difference practical or symbolic with ‘gay marriage’.
As a matter of history we had marriage enshrined in law, thus making us something less than a secular state. So therefore the logic is we should either cut the ties, and not enshrine marriage in law, and leave it to the churches as to what they want to call it, or else make it non discriminatory.
Incidentally, one of the more aggravating things Howard did is not only not give gay people law reform, he actually sent us backward by taking away the recognition of gay ‘unions’ in immigration.
So you can ‘marry’ or form a ‘union’ with another gay person in various countries, but Howard wants to make it harder for your partner to have residency here. What an asshole.
Dr Phelps, finally
Ben @103, that often makes me wonder. is it possible to play that game making every election a little longer than 3 years, until, the election gets out of synch with the senate? The election happening after the senators are supposed to sit. Im pretty sure they thought of that.
Well mad cow, look i know to each his own but i still like the idea of marriage being set aside for hetrose*ual couples, that’s just me its not really based on any religious belief its just my take on it. I am not fussed about civil unions really whatsover and i think that’s something that could be explored.
Interesting that AWA article by Norrington titled “red Tape” in the GG has been recast as “Meltdown as half AWAs fail test” on the News site.
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,22734203-5012863,00.html
I think marriage should be privatised. The only reason people require a marriage certificate from the government is because the state had to assume this role to avoid religious wars.
We no longer have wars over whether Catholics or Protestants are the true Christians, hence we no longer need the state to tell consenting adults when they are or aren’t married.
Do adults require a license from the government to reproduce? Why should they require a license to say they are married?
We spent the late 1970s and most of the 1980s getting the government out of the economic sphere of society, it is time the government got out of many aspects of the social sphere.
Oh what can I do but laugh…
I totally agree those two are a complete bore. I just think Keating V Hewson would be a great way to round out the campaign.
Just put your name on the petition! If I can get 1000 by next Friday I’ll email the ABC the link and call them. That would give them 1 week to try and arrange it.
Latham vs Abbot
I swear if the government loses, Abbott will quit parliament and write reactionary articles every month for Quadrant, while holding down a post at the Centre for Independent Studies, as he tries to revive the D.L.P.’s senate prospects.
I met Abbot once. Absolutely conceited with no clue about real people. At the time we were running 11 job seekers per job vacancy. His response ‘oh well, if you keep trying you’ll get one’. He didn’t actually stop to see the lottery paradox in that. If you *do* win that job, then *someone else* will be unlucky. Also gave me the impression that he had no idea that at the bottom of the ‘value’ ladder are people who aren’t to brainy, who are partially handicapped, etc. And all he could do was mumble ‘welfare to work’. Being thrown out of an airlock into deep space, is too good for him.
That 56/44 take on it is proving very persistent.
I wonder if the Libs have taken any soundings in Mayo?
Ed.. you mean 56/44 nationally, or?
56/44 would see Warringah probably too close to call on the night. That is one hell of a swing. Another seat that is heading for marginal status.
I just watched Peter van Onselon (spelling, sorry) on Lateline – I’ve always respected his opinion (partly because he’s hot – PollBludger eyes, come on admit it who doesn’t
) but I think he’s flying blind on this one. Laura Tingle made heaps more sense.
Sorry mad cow. I meant that if it is 56/44 nationally then that is more or less a 9 point swing. Therefore Mayo (13.6) will probably get a swing well over 9 percent while the more marginals will mostly swing less than that in South Australia. I believe that the Mayo electorate came to within 2 percent of preferencing Downer out, not that long ago. If the ‘missing’ swing in SA is not in Mayo, then it definitely must still be there in Grey.
on primary votes:
ALP 45%, down from 47%
Coalition 40%, down from 41%
a worried sign on ALP primary votes?
The last poll of all the pollsters showed a “Liberal Party” drop:
Morgan phone -2
Morgan F2F -5
AC Nielsen -1
Galaxy -2
Newspoll -1
Coincidence or telling us something?
http://media01.couriermail.com.au/multimedia/2007/11/071104-galaxy/071101galaxypoll.pdf
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/files/newspoll-6nov.pdf
Frank – maybe just a sampling variation – picked up more Greens than ALP. Or could indicated a movement to the Greens of ALP primary – but most of it comes back again. As long is it doesn’t jump anywhere eles.
Their next poll will answer the question.
thanks kina @ 125
I heartily hope so
and overall 56/44 is very good indeed
I keep telling people – don’t start celebrating yet!
1. Howard has come from behind before.
2. The MSM is literally in his pocket – and that counts for a lot. When you see constant anti-Labor headlines everywhere, it will influence some people.
3. Labor is still not on the ball. If the ALP wins this election, it will be in spite of themselves.
4. There are still two weeks for another MV Tampa to sail over the horizon – and I’ll bet that Howard has tried to arrange just that, in order to save his miserable political carcass. Given that the AFP is in his pocket also (ref: Haneef case and memos), that shouldn’t be too hard to arrange.
5. The boundaries are set at present such that Labor needs more than an even TPP to win – it needs 52%, just to get a hung parliament. The Libs can survive if they pick up just a few percent. See Antony Green’s Calculator.
While this poll is excellent news for Rudd and the ALP, if they don’t get off their backsides, my prediction of a 78-80 seat victory for the Coalition will unfortunately come true. Hell, JWH will be ecstatic at 76 or even 75 seats.
frank @123, that can only be labor voters feeling safe and flirting with the greens
Mathew, what *are* you smoking..
1. In the last 5 election campaigns Howard made significant ground in only one.
2. That might be true, but if it were going to have an effect, you’d see it by now. We’ve seen maybe, just maybe a percent coinciding with the election being called, and nothing statistically significant since.
3. The ALP could do better, but it could do a lot worse, and generally speaking the Libs are fumbling more. Despite the ‘better economic managers’ bit, the big unspoken (and unpolled for) issue is not ‘who is doing a better job’ but ‘who do you trust’. That’s something that once you’ve lost you cannot win in a campaign.
4. If that happens, don’t you think the voters might be a tiny bit more cynical this time?
5. I don’t know the exact figures but the 52% is very optimistic. The boundaries probably account for around 50.5%. If you actually fiddle with Antony’s calculator, you’ll find the parties even (seat wise) on 51%.
Unless something catastrophic is wrong with the pollsters’ methods, the odds of the Liberals winning are under 5%. I’ll stick with my prediction of 83 for Labor but frankly I think that’s a little pessimistic. It assumes that the final result is around 53.5.
i watched van odious and tinkle after my shift – rather un-inspiring – van the man was (it seemed) rather less ljh hater than i would have hoped – tinkle MAY have seen the light – neither suspected that the Latham innuendo may actually have been a placatatory message – viz – “a vote 4 rudd is actually a vote 4 ljh” – i read too much machiacelli earlier
machiavelli was a cool cat too and only a typo away
Well, had to drag myself away last night so I missed the ACN online & that lovely little AWA story. Quelle hoot!
Clearly, Peak Lib has passed. May it rest in peace.
And Mathew C, I wouldn’t be so sure about the loyalties of the AFP. I suspect they, like the defence force, have had enough of being used by Howard and co to prop up their crap political agenda.
Anyway, don’t worry about stuff you can’t control. The reality is Rudd is running a good campaign, Howard’s is a disaster par excellence. Ms Tingle had it nailed. Young Van O, (the boy AsPro) on Lateline was trying to provide a debate, i think. I doubt very much he believes that nonsense he was spouting. If he does, he needs a new career.
I’m hanging out for the broadening now. And yes, that is hubris.
And this poll was taken before sorry-gate, scumbag-gate, AWA-gate and Kroger too gutless to do Lateline-gate …
I also think Laura Tingle is cute,
I’d really like to try and make her smile a bit more, maybe by tickling her toes or…
Oh sorry, wrong blog
The drop in the ALP primary is probably going to the Grns ,the libs to the nutters on the right, this is the election now developing into second phase, people are comfortable with the ALP and are making further statements with more complex voting intentions, This is a particularily strong result for the Senate where the Tories now look gone. There was no narrowing but there could a slight move either way in the next two weeks,.
Having said that, how any objective journo could call the last week for Howard is bizzare, what their bias is doing is still giving people the impression that Howard can still vote. This is then making the swingers think, Oh F*** this I’m not taking the chance, I’d rather a total massacre rather than trying to get a close one.
Its to early for any mantion of toes, your doing bad things to my head. I did think however that Laura Tingle(where the bloody hell are you? Smart and cute) was really very good on lateline. Its fantastic watching the tories losing it. They are the worst losers, they are selfserving, selfish, self centered, cheating lying Ummmm, sorry got a bit carried away, anyway they are BORN to rule, when will the pessants stop this nonsense that people who are not Members of the Club can run the place. Its just not fair, Daddy and Mummy always told me that the Lord is in the Manor and all is well in the world. Sorry clearly the toes image has had a bad reaction
Could we please dispose once and for all the idea that that the coalition has a built in advantage so Labor must get a lot more than 50 p.c to win?
That mistaken notion comes from the so called pendulum which shows that the uniform swing required for Labor to win puts its vote at about 51.5 p.c.
But the swing will not be uniform. They never are. Labor could win the election with less than 50 p.c. as it did in 1990. So of course could the coailition.
But these possibilities exist in practice only if the election is close. If one side or other gets more than 52 p.c. of the vote they will win for sure. No amount of “wasted” swings in safe seats can change the overall outcome when there is a significant (4 p.c +) difference in the 2PP vote.
And with 2 weeks to go Labor is not 4 p.c. in front. It is 10 p.c. in front. Even an almighty stuff up which halves Labor’s lead will see them win very easily. Even an earth shattering event which cuts their lead by 80 p.c. should still see them win.
Ron Brown Says:
Spiros, I think there is a teensy bit of built in bias thanks to the fact that Labor tend to do well in highly populated areas and thus we end up with seats like Newcastle that tend to tie up a lot of labor vote.
If I’m wrong, bite me
Grayndler might have been a better example. Oh well.
It’s a bit odd but even though the campaigns haven’t been launched yet, my wife and I have just cast our votes.
We are registered postal voters and have just placed our votes in the envelopes ready for posting shortly. The rest of the campaign is a complete waste of time and money for us….. and I wonder how many others.
For your interest we have done Greens 1, ALP 2, ….. Libs 7 and FF 8 in the Reps and for the first time in recent history voted above the line in the Senate – 1 for Greens.
Why ther Greens. So they’ll get the money and the ALP will get the vote. Hint to Kevin – move left a little.
Seriously though, wouldn’t it be good to get a smile, you could spend a whole day trying
Actually, on topic for a second, is anyone worried that both Morgan and this AC online polls now have ALP primary down to 44/45?
AC Neilson trend from the Online poll shows ALP primary dropping 2 points every two weeks starting with 18-20 September (50), 23-25 October (47) and now this one at (45).
Two more weeks of this and it will be at 43, which is stiking dis
mad cow @ 140
there are Labor seats like that. But there are Liberal and National seats like that too (Mitchell, Maranoa etc). It all cancels out.
Fairy nuff
Grumblebum
Which electorate?
Mr squiggle @143. The Liberal primary vote alsi dropped. 43 p.c. primary for Labor would still be 6 p.c. more than in 2004.
What we may be seeing, as per Grumblebum @142, is left Labor voters, confident that it is now in the bag, going Greens 1 Labor 2.
This may sound stupid but could someone explain to me MSM. I know GG is Government Gazzette. The previous blogs 127 talk about MSM & the bias for Howard.
MainStream Media
Spiros, I agree with you, but its the next step in the conclusion that is really interesting to me
If a recent ALP primary of around 50 was boosted by say 4-5% from the Green vote, then surely the Green preferences would not have split 80-20 as they did in 2004?
maybe closer to 60/40 like the other minors?
Morning ‘Bludgers.
Day #5 nicotine-free,
Day #1 of quitting bragging about it,
Thanks for all the cheerios, but from now on it’s strictly politics for this particular ‘Bludger.
I love youse all.
LOL Mr Squiggle @ 134, the imagery has made my day
shaboh @ 148 – Main Stream Media – MSM.
I think mine @ 142 may show why ALP primary is dropping.
Mr Squiggle
Capricornia so it won’t make a difference:-(
Ah so there’s the coffin lid… let me just get my hammer and nails
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22733701-601,00.html
Talk about your stakes to the heart.
“The Workplace Authority confirmed 26,833 agreements had been knocked back for failing to comply with minimum standards since the Prime Minister introduced the fairness test in May.
Once deals are rejected, employers have 14 days to fix problems or have them permanently cancelled, with employees entitled to backpay.
Figures released yesterday by Workplace Authority chief Barbara Bennett show an enormous backlog of 142,000 individual and collective wage agreements — almost 80 per cent of all those lodged — are still waiting to be fully checked. ”
Even Barbara Bennett knows which way the wind is blowing!
The Tele is spinning hard for Howard:
http://www.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/story/0,22049,22731357-5001021,00.html
Malcolm Farr reckons that the Latham commentry yesterday “took up a lot of campaign time Labor would have wanted to devote to other issues”. Their bias has no end unfortunately. Thank God the natural readership of the tele wouldn’t be inclined to vote ALP even if their lives (or their children’s) depended on it. Just another two weeks when hopefully such obviously biased reporters will have limited access to the new PM.
Talk it up Johnny, Interest rates up, wages on AWA’s down. The more spin we get from the Liberals on their economic plans the more their primary vote deteriorates. Howard should never ask,’Who do you trust’ because the answer is anyone but him.
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/news/national/more-rate-rises-on-the-way/2007/11/09/1194329546427.html
Sinic – the Latham thing will be great for Labor. If you hated Latham the article confirms that Rudd is safe – he actually grumbles that Rudd is being too conservative!!
If Latham had endorsed Rudd I would be worried.
I’m not usually a fan of “Jack the Insider” but I liked his footy analogy today:
It’s always the way, the off field dramas can really hurt a team on the field.
“A number of the team’s top possession winners have been missing in action too, seemingly content to play the game from the wings and pick up a soft kick or two whenever a stray pass comes their way. Honest has been in the engine room, getting the hard ball but when he looks to dish off to Lexxy, “Truffles” Turnbull, the Stud, Broughie or “Fabulous Phil” Ruddock (B.O.G. in 2001). They are, to quote “Captain Blood” Jack Dyer, where the ball ain’t.”
Johnny of Arabia. Maybe this disguise will keep those pesky war crimes commissioners at bay.
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/news/national/sheik-down-for-pm-its-howard-of-arabia/2007/11/09/1194329499139.html
for those in Sydney Dennis Shanahan from the Oz will be on 2ue (954) in a couple of minutes if you wish to listen to crap
CL de Footscray @132 said:
Don’t know about the AFP but the ADF is most definitely feed up to the back teeth, not only because of being used. They’ve also had enough of the crazy decisions being made for them like Nelson buying crap fighters without consulting the blokes who fly them. In what other country would the head of its air force find out he’s getting new aircraft at a press conference? Aircraft not required or asked for!
This is why there are quite a few recently resigned officers standing as ALP candidates this year.
If this is from the same panel as the previous ACNielsen online polls. It is the most significant poll result this champaign. More on my blog.
My prediction: regardless of who wins, we’ll be getting tax cuts put into super next year. Let’s face it George M is on the money:
“The tax cuts should be put into superannuation, just this once, so fiscal policy soaks up some of the extra fuel in the economy. It may not affect the trajectory of inflation in the short run, but it would do something about inflationary expectations: it would remind voters that their government is as serious about fighting inflation as the Reserve Bank.”
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22732200-5013592,00.html
I only wish the ALP had been able to pledge to do it instead of have to “match” the Libs just to ensure there was no wedge. BUt if the ALP wins I expect Rudd and Swan to front up to a press conference much like Hawke and Keating did in 83:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kNZLCuFpAjM
Labor orientated story from someone who unlike the GG writers admits where he is coming from.
http://thinkerspodium.wordpress.com/2007/11/09/the-myth-of-the-economic-credibility-of-the-liberal-party/
When was the Nielsen taken? pre-or-post rate rise?
As the great PJK once said “What a beautiful set of numbers”.
Bryan @ 163 – you raise a very good point imo.
Well after these numbers I can sit back and watch the cricket today and enjoy life.
Will be back tonight to review the fall out from the AWAs – if Rudd and Julia can’t flay Howard, Costello and Uncle Buck alive with these, they don’t deserve to win.
This poll still to me represents a narrowing. Since the campaign started there has been an 8 point primary vote shift back to the coalition on this online poll. I doubt the method the preferences were distributed here as well. Also with Newspoll, ACN phone and galaxy all having the coalition primary vote on 42 or above I suspect this one is a bit out.
More evidence of poll loading on Sky and it’s beautiful.
For 18 months workchoices has ben poison, but ht eexclusive Sky News poll reveals 59% of people think the fiarness test is fair.
Sample size of 17, 12 from Young Lib HQ.
Sky says MOE = 0.
What a pack of clowns.
then we had Shamahnahan on 2ue this morning categorically saying the at th rate rise is a good thing for the govt, that he was weith Costello & Howard through the week and that they’re “happy” the discussion is back on the economy, and note how since the rate rise, Howard has improved as PPM in the Neilsen poll today.
Yeah, I’m sure the boys in LNP HQ are really doing cartwheels.
Dire, even for Dennis. Dire.
Apologies for typos.
Thommo – So what do you call 62/38? The pre-widening? Come on, there is no narrowing. Read Bryan’s post on oz politics.
Hahahahahahahahaha………….Workchoices “the gift that just keeps giving”.
Howard’s folly…..KABOOOOOOMMMMMMM
I hear Labor is launching its arts policy today in Parramatta.
JOHNNY COME LATELY-WHERE HAVE YOU BEEN VISITING.
Read some interesting observations from a UQ reader in politics published in the Courier Mail today (page13) indicating that John Howard has taken a ’save the silverware’ approach to his seat visits and on the ground campaigning.
Apart from campaigning in 3 safe Labor seats (Reid, Fremantle and Griffith of all places), JWH is desperately trying to stop Labor winning 16 seats by adopting a ‘baton down the hatches’ approach on the ground, protecting some marginal seats over the first four weekS.
In the first four weeks JWH has visited 16 Coalition seats: Robertson (NSW), Dobell (NSW), Bennelong (NSW) twice, Lindsay (NSW) twice, Parramatta (NSW) Latrobe (VIC) twice, McMillan (VIC), Deakin (VIC), Moreton (QLD), Longman (QLD), Bonner (QLD) Wakefeild (SA), Kingston (SA), Solomon (NT), Stirling (WA) and Hasluck (WA).
Reportedly, JWH is yet to visit his mate Turnbull in Wentworth, leaving him to his own devices for the first 4 weeks, along with Coalition candidates hoping to hang on to Eden Monaro (NSW), Cowper (NSW), Paterson (NSW), Page (NSW), Corangamite (VIC), Herbert (QLD), Blair (QLD), Makin (SA), Boothy (SA), Sturt (SA), Bass (TAS) and Braddon (TAS).
What about Mr Rudd ?
Our reader in politics tracking indicates that Rudd has visited every one of the seats listed above except for Parramatta, Paterson, Bennelong, Lindsay, Corangamite, McMillan, Moreton, Stirling, Makin, Boothy, Sturt, (SA), Wakefeild and Bonner in the first 4 weeks. Mr Rudd has also visited the ’safe’ Coalition seats of Dickson, Leichardt, Ryan, Cook and McPherson.
With 2 weeks to go, the first 4 weeks have seen the on-the ground campaign of both leaders focussing on winning or holding those 16 marginal seats as a first target, with some contradictory visits [eg Howard in Griffith and Rudd in McPherson] aimed at keeping the other team guessing what they are up to.
This is not, however, rocket science. The last 2 weeks will see the real markers of where the on-the-ground ’secret’ polling is telling them and, therefore, which specific seats or States each is going to be instructed to ’shore up’ or ‘attack’ in the last 2 weeks. In Rudd’s shoes, I would focus on NSW and QLD in last 2 weeks, because seats in those States will win or lose this election for him.
Whatever is going to happen in SA, TAS, NT, WA and VIC will happen with our without Rudd’s presence: I think those states are pretty much ‘locked’ in now. The swinging numb nuts in Page, Paterson, Robertson, Wentworth, Bennelong, Cowper, and a host of QLD seats like Bowman, Leichardt, Petrie, Ryan, Flynn, Herbert, Hinkler and Longman will be of keen interest and concern for both sides at the on-the-ground level in the final 2 weeks, if these voters are not locked in by now- Election fatigue was present long before this election ‘officially’ began.
173 – Pancho – at Riverside Theatres? Any idea what time?
My problem with these tax cuts is that many Australians miss out and surely there must be a more equitable solution.
What affect would say a cut in the fuel excise or a lowering of the GST have on inflation, hence interest rates?
I know, this won’t happen, they will just fiddle with the edges.
That’s the problem with our political parties, they are stuck with the same old same and there is no reform or innovation.
Maybe there is room for a progressive alternative party?
Pretty sure it kicks off at 2. Awaiting some details at the moment…
Sinic @ 157
Actually that article by Malcolm Farr actually says that Howard and his ministers spent the day misinterpreting what Latham said, turning it around 180 degrees to suit their own critique of Rudd.
This is exactly what I said on this board yesterday, so it’s heartening to see the MSM eventually get it right, even if a day late! Of course they milk it for a day first and then spin it back the right way up. Hmm, two days of copy for the one ’story’.
169
What is the definition of MOE
You’ve got to hand Thommo the eternal optimist prize for poll interpretation..
Only a true believer could take comfort from a 44:56 result 2 weeks from an election where that result is exactly the same as every poll this year.
Whatever you are on, Thommo, save some for me. I want a kilo of it.
Here you go shaboh: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Margin_of_error (who says wikipedia is worthless?)
Spiros – a kilo of utter stupidity is far too much.
Maybe the AFP could do the same to the GG.
Rupert Murdoch’s News Corp has described as “totally outrageous” the storming of its Georgian television station Imedi by armed police, saying they caused “very extensive” damage.
http://www.theage.com.au/news/World/Georgian-police-attack-News-Corp-TV/2007/11/10/1194329548637.html
Thanks Pancho
I hjave learnt a lot todaY: msm & moe. I’m sure there will be other acronyns I will have to learn about in these blogs in the future.
Labor’s just announced a new health initiative to beat obesity:
http://i236.photobucket.com/albums/ff152/Kirribilli_Removals/specialk.jpg
Though Labor’s Primary did drop so did the LNP at the same time. If there was something really going on you would have seen a transfer of primary betweem ALP & LNP. So for Labor it just seems a sampling variation – votes going to Greens is as almost as voting for Labor. But it is alway reassuring to see that primary high – it probably still is.
BUT for the LNP as noted above, it could be the signaling of their peak. I hope so.
Anyway the gap remains a good 12% or 6% if you want to look at it like that. Howard still needs to get more than 520,000+ people to change their minds.
Like some others, I won’t fully believe it all until 25th Nov.
This could be even more significant than the ACN and Morgan Polls results!
Australia’s top social researcher, Hugh McKay, was interviewed at length by Helen Dowling on Skynews’ Election Report this morning. Mckay in the first week of the last election nailed the final result based on his long running focus groups picking up no mood for change in 2004.
The mood this year from McKay’s groups reveals growing dissatisfaction with the “direction” of our society (get stuffed Morgan Poll’s “soft Labor” myth) due to the following:
1. Workchoices, which did not immediately cause wide concern, has gradually created considerable anxiety not only among younger people new to the workforce, but among parents worried about their teenage children’s future work conditions, even if the children are University graduates.
2. The redistribution of wealth from the bottom 20% of whole family incomes (only $22,000 per year now) to the top 20% of whole family incomes has increasingly created an American type of working poor. McKay says this is something he had never expected to see in Australia, and he agrees with Aussie Home Loans’ John Simons that interest rate rises have hit those in bottom 20% with mortgages extremely hard.
3. Those who are doing extremely well in Australia’s robust economy have developed a feeling of “entitlement” that they deserve their wealthy lifestyles no matter how much the bottom 20% have to struggle as a consequence.
4. Related issues such as climate change and education have become more important. One of the reasons McKay gives is that his research indicates the Baby Boomers are returning more to their idealistic values which made them the iconoclastic generation of the 1960’s (on equality for women especially).
All this year, I haven’t allowed myself to believe that Rudd Labor could get the 16 marginal seats needed to win the House even if Labor won 52-53% of the 2 PP national vote (Beazley ‘98 revisited). After listening to McKay, my mood has changed from slightly pessimistic to slightly optimistic.
Labor = snivelling posters like will who have no sense of humour or personality
Liberal = great people like Tabitha and me
Excellant report Hemingway. Hopefully the MSM will not show the biasness as in previous elections and allow the people to hear both sides. I get the feeling Skynews is biased in its reporting but at least they show entire doorstops which show the panic & fear campaign displayed by the Liberals. It’s just that they interpret it differently to the way I see it.
Maybe I am the one out of step???
kina at post 50 says: “Together (the polls) seem to show the Liberal primary tailing off – There is a little hint here that three weeks into the campaign we have reached ‘peak’ Liberal party primary. They got a little boost when the election was called and nothing else.”
I think that’s right. There’s no joy here for the Conservatives.
You’ve heard about “Peak Oil”, well meet “Peak Liberal”.
Despite the best efforts of the Industry (the GG et al), exploration over the last 4 weeks has produced nada in the way of additional new Tory deposits. They’ll no doubt keep feverishly drilling, perhaps going-over the Hanson Redneck-1 field again to get at the dregs, but I fear the jig is up.
Come the 24th, a switch to alternative fuel, Labor, is now inevitable.
Ave it 07
Liberal = Howard walking away from an injured person
Labor = Rudd saying he will take responsibility
Labor = lol
Liberal = great leadership for Australia
Thanks, Shaboh.
Good call on Skynews. Must keep in mind that all their bogus “polls” like today’s on the fairness test always come in with 60% to the Coalition side of issue and 40% to the Labor side, so they are preaching to the converted. Seems like a poor business plan to write off 40% of your demographic, but hey, Murdoch can afford this just as he does with Dennis Shanahan and his mates in “The Australian”.
However, Helen Dowling has been rock solid credible and fair throughout the campaign unlike their “Top Gun” political analyst, David Speers, who called the Leaders’ debate as Rudd winning by a “whisker” after letting Howard hog 60% of the time allowed, and he regularly serves up Dorothy Dixers to the Coalition pollies or their surrogates. Speers has trashed his own credibility, if he ever had any.
Where’s will and Lord Doughnut?
Evan at 190, “You’ve heard about “Peak Oil”, well meet “Peak Liberal”.”
Not quite yet.
For Howard’s last cartridge, he needs to fashion something that many will feel forced to vote for, just on account of their particular circumstances. Even though they will be holding their noses as they fill in the ballot.
Tax deductibility of private school fees might do it. Not unlimited deductions, but enough to cover the fees charged at the lower end of the scale – the fees paid by the swinging demographic.
188, 191, 192, DO WE HAVE TO GO THROUGH SH*T EVERY DAY?
193 Hemingway
Whatever credibility David Speers was trying to build as some kind of political analyst or political journalist never got off the ground.
Just like Shanahan, he is an unapologetic spin doctor the Liberal Party and has never been anything else.
Clearly SKYNEWS and The Australian are being dominated and editorialised and directed and controlled by those with a blue-vein interest in the election outcome: even my totally disinterested better-half noted about Speers “Oh my God, who is he bending over for these days”.
196 – do you live under Gordon Brown too? LOL
Howard is campaign launching in QLD- which launch will this one be ? See my notes @174 for reasons why he is ‘launching’ in QLD.
I can’t believe Howard is trying the “who do you trust line again” what a LIAR he is, Liberals are good at slogans and nothing else.
We won’t know Howards policies policies for the future unless he is re-elected, because that is how he operates, lies to get in and then says he has a mandate to do whatever he likes.
I will be doing my little bit to make sure this elected lying Dictator is not re-elected, all the Liberal members are gutless, not one of them has the guts to stand up to their Dictator.
Just checked Centrebet,
Tasmania, All odds for the ALP.
Bass $1.17
Braddon $1.17
Denison $1.005
Franklin $1.12
Lyons $1.12
A 5-0 whitewash 1.30 ALP. Ummm I thought that one of the Tassie seats was meant to be line ball???
201 – its all about the wasting of money on Labor
Labor look good in the polls
Liberal look good in the votes
If this has been noted previously, I’m sorry (but NOT an apology!):
From the Yahoo7 News site:
| AAP | Photos
Saturday November 10, 05:54 AM
Online poll shows Rudd is preferred PM
The latest Herald/Nielsen online poll has found that in a direct match-up, ALP leader Kevin Rudd is the preferred prime minister.
Mr Rudd received 50 per cent of the online vote, with Prime Minister John Howard on 42 per cent.
When they are pitted against other senior members of their respective teams, they are still clearly the most popular choices.
The poll of 1,428 voters found 36 per cent preferred Mr Rudd, which was down four points from the last online poll a month ago, while 31 per cent backed Mr Howard, up two points.
Mr Costello, who will become prime minister sometime in the next term if the coalition is re-elected, rated only four per cent.
Mr Rudd’s deputy Julia Gilliard rated seven per cent as preferred PM.
AAP
Hey, Costello’s big, fat 4 % should make him all the more cocky this weekend.
There once was a bennelong dwarf
Who struck down a young lass as he walked
“I’m not sorry! Twas not I!”,
snorted he, “Pigs might fly!”
as he flung several barrels of pork
came to overnight. better late than never!
Umm Ave it 07, (202) not quite sure about that.
Mentioned here about a week ago that there were ALP seats in Vic that was paying $1.14, it dropped in one day to $1.08, someone can count.
We’ve heard a lot about celebrity candidates (Please don’t go there again!!) but in the US, celebrity endorsements are very highly reported, although some are undoubtedly counter-productive. I’ve heard Cate Blanchett, God love her, slam the Rodent recently. Will this become a feature of elections to come given the way we increasingly follow the US and have there been other celebrity endorsements?
Does anyone know whether these types of polls have been done in previous elections?
Bluebottle mentions a report in the CM:
“indicating that John Howard has taken a ’save the silverware’ approach to his seat visits and on the ground campaigning.”
I suspect that this may actually be a reflection of the strategy being used by the Libs in many of their “vulnerable” seats, rather than any indication of the ones they think are “saveable”.
Here in McEwen, Howard Government Minister, Fran Bailey, is going out of her way to avoid indicating any connection with the Liberal Party or John Howard. Mail outs and posters , for the most part, highlight her name and supposed local contributions, not her party associations. In previous elections we would always receive mail bearing both her own and Howard’s photos, with the phrase “Howard Liberal Government” appearing prominently and repeatedly. This time round there is no mention of Howard or Liberal at all on most of them.
The only exception I’ve seen so far involved an item of “senior citizen” mail to my old age pensioner mother. In this case it seems “Liberal” and “Howard” apparently is still meant to be of marketing value. (In mum’s case it is seriously mis-targeted – she has never voted Lib in her life).
But on everything else Bailey seems to be trying to portray herself as a greenish, community based, independent with no Johnny H or party connections. The last time I saw this sort of strategy used was by some Labor candidates when Keating was unpopular with the electorate.
I think the conclusion is clear. “John Howard” and “Liberal” are now seen as sufficiently “on the nose” as brand names to lose more votes than they win in electorates like McEwen. Howard isn’t visiting such places because the local candidates don’t want him there, especially if they already have a reasonably high profile themselves. I’m sure the last thing someone like Turnbull would want would be Howard’s entourage traipsing through the local shopping centres, knocking over the voters!
Rudd, on the other hand, has sufficiently high ratings to make him a potential vote winner. Accordingly , he can pretty much go where he wants.
Two weeks to go to you make your choice
You know you will be voting Coalition
Movements in Vic in last week (centrebet)
Seat,…………….Swing required%/4th…Now
Corrangamite 5.3 2.10 1.95
Deakin 5 2.00 2.00
Latrobe 5.8 1.90 1.90
McEwan 6.4 2.30 2.30
McMillan 5 2.00 1.95.
Only valid conclusion, no sign of ‘Narrowing’
Glen @ 105
I think you are a yank because you speak yank, aka septic – “I’d be pissed having to vote …”
In Australia, one is “pissed OFF” about something. A lonesome “pissed” without “off” means drunk. Do you vote while drunk?
Signed
Speech police
@209 Ave it all
You can do what you like in that booth….but please mop up after yourself.
The rest of us have quiet determination to remove the stain from office.
211 – ‘Do you vote while drunk’ – is that Labor supporters?
Centrebet Continued, (without figures) Will do if anyone is really bored.
Qld is really interesting a shortening of 11 of the closest 12 seats to ALP.
Again only valid conclusion, No Narrowing
Mr 4%
sad isn’t it.
Just on the validity of online polls — I know they weight for gender, age — but how do they correct for the fact that online Australians who like to participate in surveys are different in socio-economic terms from non-online Australians?
For example, I would think they would be undersampling those on low-incomes. Wouldn’t that significantly bias the results?
We like links to articles pasted here too….
I agree with Bryan @ 163. Actually I think, going by polling in the 2004 election, ACN may well be more important than Newspoll in terms of accuracy. This far out from the 2004 Election, ACN had the result as 52-48 for the Coalition compared with Newspoll which had the result as 47.5-52.5 for the Coalition.
Ave it 07 et al, you are serving a valid function of continuing to focus the minds of ALP supporters and maintain the rage. Keep it up till 24.11.07 commrade!!!
Oiii! Kwiw pundit.
{the result as 52-48 for the Coalition compared with Newspoll which had the result as 47.5-52.5 for the Coalition.}
?
You mean both polls favoured the coalition @ 52.5 and 52-47????? or what?
Bryan @ 163 The idea of a longitudinal study is excellent. Why hasn’t it been done before?
219 – keep enjoying the feeling.
Its all about the free democratic power of speech gained by Liberals:
Super liberals we are good
Labor = QPR
Centrebet last
NSW nearest five, all closing except Wentworth(Static)
SA nearest 4 all closing except Boothby(Why didn’t they find a ex union thug who would at least be able to stand and talk at the same time) Even Boothby is static
No narrowing (Finished now)
A few things:
I agree with the comment earlier that Latham’s re-emergence (to the lmited extent it is relevant at all) can only be a slight positive for Rudd. If this was the AFR’s “story that Rudd wasn’t going to like” then someone is kidding themselves.
Where are we at with the polls:
Basically the best the Libs have had all year is 47 TPP, and their average this year is about 44. The only thing is that they have now had a few (is it three or four) 46s or 47s during the campaign proper. So there is some (slight) evidence for a “narrowing”. But this would only be the sort of narrowing that means Labor wins 80-90 seats instead of 90-100. Hardly what JWH is looking for, even if you believe that it is narrowing.
Unless the Libs get at least one poll of 48 TPP or better before the big day, they must be heading for the big drop.
A couple of other thoughts:
Notwithstanding ACN’s careful stratification, I would never trust an on-line poll in absolute terms. The sample must be self-selecting in a material way, I would have thought. However there’s no particular reason to disregard the trend (ie no change), which is good news for Labor.
The Morgan 62-38 – this is a truly bizarre result. They’ll be geniuses (and history will be re-written in other ways) if it turns out to be anywhere near prescient. But I doubt it.
Oops I meant 52.5-47.5 to Labor for Newspoll this far out from the 2004 election. But the ACN poll at the time did have it 52-48 for the Coalition. Well spotted Gerr!
The seat of Dobell is going OFFF, check out these number,(I had to check and still quite don’t believe it)
Liberal Marginal 4.8%.
ALP Paying 1.20 Libs 4.00 on Centrebet… Eden Monaro is wider. What has happened in Dobell, ?? To the various Lib supporters out there here is your chance for a killing?
Anyone got any more to add on that “rumour” flagged earlier that the ACN phone poll is going to show 55-45?
Dyno
Surely the libs would require more than one 48 TPP – that’s rock bottom. Slim hope, I’d say …
Ruddster’s campaign = in the box seat
Rodent’s campaign = in the dog-box
Gidday Kiwipundit
How’s the New Zealand Herald behaving these days? (It’s my old paper in another life).
Very slim in reality Derek, I agree. But they’d spin it to the party faithful as a trend, so the people doing HTVs and so on don’t lose (too much) heart.
Good work Follow the P. We can all read polls and interpret statistics.
But the betting – where people and experts put their money where their mouth is and where the bookies are in the business of getting it right – is the strongest indicator of all.
http://www.theage.com.au/news/opinion/shaun-carney/2007/11/09/1194329510061.html?page=fullpage#contentSwap1
Good article and cartoon.
Kiwipundit, it looks like there’s a HUGE movement back to Labour in NZ. A Morgan poll has Labour up to 40.5%, with the NZ Tories at 45%. That Labour vote is up about 10% in a month!!
Wonder if the Libs will expand on this for us at their campaign launch. Looks like a real winner for the coalition this one. Right up there with ads on ‘who do you trust to keep interest rates low?’
“Legislation outlining the framework for a nuclear power industry will be introduced over the next term of government if the coalition is re-elected, Prime Minister John Howard says.
The federal government has outlined its intention to establish a nuclear power industry in Australia.
Prime Minister John Howard said it was unlikely the nuclear legislation would be ready before the federal election.
“The legislation isn’t quite ready and whether it gets passed this year or next year depends on the timing of the election and the will of the people,” Mr Howard told Southern Cross Broadcasting.”
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/news/national/howard-promises-nuclear-power-for-australia/2
Gidday Derek,
It’s pretty quiet at the moment, although earlier this year there was (rightly) plenty of criticism of the APN’s (the Herald’s owners) decision to contract out the sub-editing function to somewhere like Malaysia where wages are lower of course.
Anyway, here’s this morning’s Herald:
http://www.nzherald.co.nz
Dyno, someone earlier said AC Neilson had a data base of 80 to 90,000 people which they sampled to reflect the Australian demographic, then phoned a sample. Obviously, they could not get it absolutely right, but the result is roughly where many of the polls are.
Dyno
Yep. It will be interesting on the big day to observe the libs handing out … skeleton crew I’d say. I handed out for years in La Trobe and the lib performance was pathetic … no depth. Snooty Liberal ladies plastered with tonnes of make-up who clearly wanted to be somewhere else. Makes me shudder to think of it …
Lord D,
I don’t know about a huge swing to Labour – there are still some recent polls (eg. the one in the Herald a week or two ago) still showing Labour trailing National by double digits. But the Morgan poll is encouraging. I note that the poll was taken before last Saturday when Clark made the announcement that Labour will be offering tax cuts next year. That should certainly boost Labour further.
NSW Nurses have launched advertising I haven’t seen before – granny with a walker calling for a nurse in a darkened empty hospital.
Will 2 weeks of Health ads result in ‘The Widening’(TM)?
If Pancho’s still on – any word on where the Arts policy announcement is being made today?
As near as I can make out, in the 18 months since May 2006 there have been 38 Newspolls, 77 Morgan face-to-faces, 15 AC Nielsens and a gaggle of Galaxies… about 140 national opinion polls in all… give or take a poll or two.
Total number of people interviewed: in the order of 150,000.
Total number of polls (of any type) won by the government: 2/140 (the last one, a Newspoll in August 2006, 15 months ago; before that, June 2006).
Running average of polls 2 weeks out from the election(and for the past 11 months): 56/44 2PP Labor’s way.
Question: Why is anyone even discussing the possibility of Howard winning this election?
what are peoples plans for election night?
Kiwipundit
Thanks. Are you serious – subbing off-shore? That’s crazy! Are you in the business, if you don’t mind me asking …
235 The link to Howard’s words of wisdom seemed a bit out of touch but for historians who want to know why the Libs were on the nose in the 2007 election, talk like this is a part of the reason.
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/news/national/howard-promises-nuclear-power-for-australia/2007/09/28/1190486524376.html
Totally agree BB (242)
And what makes it even harder for the Govt is the REASONS voters have swung to Labor.
1. Workchoices
2. Which is the party which will best handle issues Australia faces in the future.
In which case itis hard (no – almost impossible) to see how the Libs can get back by banging on about their past “record”.
Actually, I don’t know what they can do. And it seems neither do they.
Sorry (apologies) all, but based on the recommendation of an earlier poster, I sent the following set of suggestions to Christen Tilley’s fallen-woman-in-Penrith-shopping-centre caption competition at A waste of my time
Needless to say, none of my proposals got passed the moderator. (And before anyone has any unkind thoughts, I do not for a moment ignore the possibility that said moderator simply judged my ‘work’ to be dull, facile, irrelevant or unfunny – much like Christopher Pyne, but that’s another topic.)
Okay, so for posterity (and also to highlight the possibility of ABC ’sensitivity’), here they are:
“Now that’s a recession you didn’t need to have, eh!”
or
“That’ll learn you for sneaking around behind my back. You’re just like Malcom.”
or
“How about a cup of tea, a bex and a good lie down?”
or
“Somebody call a doctor. Are you insured luv?”
or
“It was my last resort. All my other inducements have fallen flat.”
or
“Get up and take some mutual responsibility for your life!”
or
“You don’t fool me with this ‘victim routine’.”
or
“Well, I was suspicious. You don’t look like you belong to a working family. Forgive me for asking, but are you single, gay, non-Christian, a purveyor of secular humanist cant? If so, please stay where you are until I’ve left the shopping centre.”
From the article in The Age
They cut out the bit when he started hissing and muttering “precious, My precious”.
Alas, such news get little coverage.
Hundreds of Canberra public servants helped prepare seat-by-seat “cheat sheets” that the Coalition has been using to plan its political advertising.
http://canberratimes.com.au/news/local/general/ps-used-in-cheat-sheets-for-govt/1084013.html
Re the caption competition. What about “Foul labor-voting demons which have infested this good woman – BE GONE!!”
Bushfire Bill: Cause we are all afraid….
# 247
How about:
Lady, I allready have a doormat, his name is costello.
I knew there was a reason I still got the GG. There was an excellent bit in there which was relevant to the election. It was Halliday’s top 100 wines. Turn to the Bubbles section and make a state-appropriate choice for the 24th (I’ll go with Croser). And to the WA and NSW bloggers, there don’t seem to be any decent ones from your states. There’s gotta be a market there!
Gidday again Derek,
No I’m not in the business. Interestingly, I found out about APN’ plans to sub overseas by reading one of the (rival) Fairfax papers – Wellington’s Dominion Post!
I would say that all of the musicians who have given of their time in the last year or so for anti work choices musical fundraisers and climate change concerts are endorsing Labor
… Maybe not explicity, but implicitly …. I don’t have a full listing of the bands who played those concerts though. That would go all the way back to the gathering at the MCG almost 12 months ago now and several more events in the last year as well.
249 It is Howard Liberals being so accountable for the taxpayer’s money it spends on pork that amuses me. Another reason to vote them out enmass.
240
onimod Says:
NSW Nurses have launched advertising I haven’t seen before – granny with a walker calling for a nurse in a darkened empty hospital.
I’ve seen that one before, about 3 weeks ago. It is very simple and effective.
Derek,
I can’t find the relevant article in the Dominion post, but the decision was even reported in Australia earlier this year:
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,,22232589-7582,00.html?from=public_rss
Re 240,
onimod Says:
Saw that one too myself during the cricket on Friday here in Sydney. It is a sure fire winner and I bet that ad ALONE will be able to swing heaps of votes all over the electorate. The 60+ crowd as well as younger folks who have parents in that age group …… wonderful angle to be attacking Work Choices from
:):)
Found a new candidate to join the team at Liberal Party Election Headquarters.
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/news/queensland/boat-sinks-on-first-outing/2007/11/09/1194329493939.html
Derek, oops I was wrong about the sub-editing being contracted overseas. I think that was just a rumour before the decision was made.
“Now, give me back my manbag”.
Hockey may as well resign now.
http://blogs.news.com.au/news/blogocracy/index.php/news/comments/mr_howards_ir_monster
256 Steve. The info the PS was forced to give the Libs http://canberra.yourguide.com.au/news/local/general/ps-used-in-cheat-sheets-for-govt/1084013.html
is just one of the many reasons I’ll be laughing my a** off when this disgusting %$#@!@@#!!!##$$$$ $#@!!! of a Prime Minister loses his seat on the the 24th.
That and the $160 I’ll win from sportingbet.
Looks like $weetie almost embarrassed himself here.
http://www.economics.com.au/?p=1183
Since we’re re-visiting captions for the fallen woman photo, I thought I’d resubmit the one I posted yesterday.
I told you I’d smack you in the mouth if you mentioned interest rates again.
“Christ tell me Hyacinth didn’t just deck Prue”
Bushfire @ 242
That will do me! Nice, nice!
BTW. Impressed by your use of bold type. Dunno how to do that … but now working on election night hunker-down strategy.
1. Buy some refreshments
2. Charge batteries for transistor radio
3. Find ear phone thingys
4. Wipe TV screen and adjust tuning to ABC for the wife
5. Buy some refreshments
6PM – retire to backyard with dogs (two boxers and a small yapper) … say to them: “Doggies. The deed is done” …. insert ear phones … all howl at moon … then check with wife … go out for joyful howling … check with wife … howl … buy some refreshments … bay at moon … doggies enjoying themselves … check with wife … start talking to dogs … “good, that bastard’s gone …” … “and that dollop of shite .. and … “Yep,doggies – swing is on …”
7pm or thereabouts: Stand upright and proceed inside towards television screen. “Hello wife – what’s happening?” Calm as a cucumber, me. Jo Anne says: “We’ve won.”
At this point, your correspondent leaves the room, followed by three doggies. Serious ratting and joyful howling …
168
Thommo Says:
November 10th, 2007 at 9:12 am
This poll still to me represents a narrowing.
Most people dont play with themselves in public Thommo, but hey, knock yourself out mate.
The only narrowing for the Libs is the number of days left to political demolition of their party.
So the “Mman of Steel” that invades Iraq is scared of a little sheep.
LUCY the sheep is behind bars after being arrested at a John Howard campaign event.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22734851-12377,00.html
I read where Andrew Robb is now accusing Rudd of pinching a phrase from a bloke who in the 1980s, Vic Fingerhut, was a pollster and campaign consultant to the notorious Tobacco Institute who devised campaigns to defend ‘Big Tobacco’ and discredit anti-smoking activists. That phrase is working families.
Is this bloke Robb for real? Is that the best they can do? Is there anything else they’re going to try and pin Rudd on? For heaven sake if that’s all they’ve got the game is well and truly over. Unbelievable.
“Man…..”
Gary, when I hear Andrew Robb I always think about upping my wager on the ALP.
Supposedly he’s one of their guns. lol
Don’t get ahead of yourself people. This poll is meaningless. The fundamental flaw it has is that it relies on people being interested enough go onto the website and participate, and most people that are interested are not swinging voters. Look no further than this forum for evidence of that. AC Nielsen seems to be the most reliable poll, but no relationship should be drawn between the regular poll and this online poll.
Just got back from a Labor campaign event at Thorndon Park here in Adelaide. Thanks ShowsOn for the tip!
Was quite fun – Rudd and Gillard were there, together with Tony Zappia (Makin), Mia Handshin (Sturt) and Karen Lock (Barker). John Faulkner was there too!
Just your standard meet and greet with doorstop I guess, but it was great to see everyone up close in person. I had a chat to Mia and Tony afterwards and they both seem like great candidates.
mytym, I’m going to trust the ACN might have considered that point when they undertook their methodology.
I think it’s spot on. (Still just my opinion, but I think at least their choice is less likely to be an “oh bugger it, I’ll vote Labor/Howard” that newspoll and other phone polls can be.)
275 The problem of repeated tax cuts. Hope Labor deliver theirs in the form of Superannuation or some way that is less inflationary than what $weetie has come up with so far.
http://petermartin.blogspot.com/2007/11/saturday-forum-superbank-more-powerful.html
The problem over the electoral briefs is not that they were compiled by the departments but the reasons the management accepted for not releasing them or the level of charges that they sought to levy.
The information should be out there for the public to see. It will certainly add t the sum of public knowledge and is justified as being an element in accountability for public expenditure.
don’t know how they did the costing for the proposed charges – its rubbish. If the material was prepared as it clearly was accoring to the papers account, the cost of pulling it out for FOI would be minimal.
The action by the departments is well outside the spirit of the FOI act. It is also politically dumb – but if it leads to an incoming government doing something to seriously improve the administration of the FOI act then that would be a fitting result if an unintended consequences.
#271, Howard is in Penrith again today?! If only I had known.
Kiwipundit
Thanks. Informative. Bingo subbing at its extreme. Next they’ll replace subs with a political, spell-check software program. Shite in, sausage out. So sad.
Cheers.
I have asked Centrebet to provide odds of what time the victory speech will occur for Labour, they are framing a market as we speak.
#268, what a hoot. Our election bbq is serving up a John Winston Howard roast.
My friends are calling me a tight*rse as I have offered free beer until Labour win. I hope we can get through nibblies before the night is over.
Now only if Maxine can win and destroy the much yearned for legacy. Give me an M, give me an A>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Labor is the phony deal!
Liberal is the real deal!
Tabitha sweetie that is lovely.
Question for the journos who blog here. If all the readers of Poll Bludger agreed not to hit the GGs website on a particular day under any circumstances, as a gesture of protest against the Shamahan shenanigans and other violations against fair and balanced reporting, would it show up in their statistics? Would it cost them money? Would it send a message?
Liberal elects women to parliament
Labor in parliament fuc*s women over
Derek at 268
Your responses can be written to include basic html code. For example, to get bold you enclode the word to be bolded with -
left angle bracket b right angle bracket. To end bold , you do -left angle bracket /b right angle bracket. So it looks like this [b] phrase in bold[/b] but use instead of [ and ]. If you want italics then use i instead of b…othe rthings are possible too…
Tabitha, show it to mummy and daddy, they’ll be so pleased. You can write.
That should say but use “” instead of [ and ]. (Hope that displays…
Obviously angle brackets won’t even display when in quotes!
Long time Poll Bludger addict, rare poster.
The dead tree version of the Canberra Times reports a surge in young ACT voters is putting pressure on senator Gary Humphries. Electoral Commission figures show the ACT has experienced a dramatic rise in the number of first time voters and that there are more of them proportionally than in other parts of the country.
Story has Malcom Mackerras predicting the shift in the voting demogratic would see Greens candidate Kerry Tucker win the second seat and Labor’s Kate Lundy the first.
Gives Getup much of the credit, but gives no figures.
Yah booh sucks Howard and your unfair electoral laws. Let’s hope they bite you in the bum!
Tabitha thinks she is a doll
Everyone else thinks she is a moll
Tax cuts from Tanner
Tablets for Tabitha
Test
This [b]is[/b]a test.
Grog @ 164,
I’ve been thinking exactly the same thing. Unfunded super is a whopping great fiscal vacuum that needs filling and is there at just the right time as a reduction in pressure is needed. Glaringly obvious really.
Grumblebum – don’t give up hope!!
Everyone is saying John H will need a tampa/9-11 type event to rescue the situation….well….what happens if he gets an event like that but it is state-based only (ie not national)?
Which state would it have to be in?
The Melbourne Age this morning is devoted to some serious questions in relation to high-level police corruption. Serious stuff, full page, loud headlines etc
Now would this sort of law and order issue sway a state swing?
Glen @ 100
Well put…..keep up the fight!
Matthew @ 127
One of the few level headed comments here……theres plenty of time for hubris and celebration after the event. What we’re seeing here is excitement whipped up by polling (most recently) derived from dodgy, unproven methodology. It pays to remember that all of these polls (even the so called ‘reputable’ ones) are only a reflection of intentions on any given day. There are still many voters undecided. Take a deep breath people…..the finish line is in sight, but the horse need to be ridden out.
tabitha Says:
November 10th, 2007 at 1:52 pm
“Liberal elects women to parliament
Labor in parliament fuc*s women over”
Is John Brown back in parliament?
Derek, use angle brackets, not [ or ]. i.e. less than symbol and greater than symbol
PJK for President (and quite right, too)
Er, not used to Windows – mainly work on Mac. Thanks for tips. Telstra’s wireless modem will not work with my Mac laptop.
Plans for election night?
Thanks to all the Tories who frequently ‘contribute’ to this site.
The more you express your views, the more I am convinced of mine.
Again, thank you!
Just Saying @ 291, do you have the hard copy? Apparently there’s an article on the Max factor in Bennelong but I can’t find it on-line.
Derek – plans are to work all day on various booths – unfortunately in safe WA seat (Curtin) – and then sink a few in the evening. Hopefully we will know the result before we knock off at 6 – 8pm AEDT.
PJK,
unlucky mate, I’m gonna be wearing my Kevin07 shirt proudly at a Cowan booth.
Victory party at the Macedonian Club in Stirling afterwards I heard
tabitha
please return to the clinic
we need you
ps your medication has been upped ….promise its not bindeeez again
#302 Yes I do have the hard copy and The Max Factor is a quite good read – fairly balanced look at the seat with views from both sides. Suggests many but by no means all Chinese are leaning to Maxine but points out Howard also has his Chinese fans.
Quotes Galaxy Research’s David Briggs saying first time voters are more likely to vote Labor and his organisation’s recent polls show a firm win to Maxine McKew. Then quotes Peter Brent being more cautious, saying he is unsure about the pulling power or efficacy of star recruits and that the predicted swing is somewhat tainted by the presence of the Not Happy John brigade last time.
Also quotes Possum Comitatus at the end: “But either way [this time] an ALP member will be representing Benelong after the 2010 election. The slowly changing demographics of the seat are just too powerful.”
Mr. Squiggle, noone is blaming the state government for police corruption. Hell, the OPI is doing its job beautifully. If anything it is justifying the setting up of such a body.
Tabs, please recite your faux-feminist line to any of the following ALP frontbenchers and ex-frontbenchers:
Julia Gillard (Deputy Leader)
Jenny Macklin (former Deputy Leader, now junior frontbencher)
Penny Wong
Nicola Roxon
Tanya Plibersiek (all above are current frontbenchers)
Carmen Lawrence
Susan Ryan
and a number of others….certainly I don’t remember seeing a Liberal deputy leader, or Health Minister……or any senior (Cabinet) Ministry. Go home, you troll.
did you hear about helena rubenstein
max factor
Mathew Cole 307
Totally agree with you, Labor has good female representation compared to the Lib on the more important portfolios of government.
I also agree with you that Tabs should go home and read some books and educate herself better, so she can add some value to debate.
I read this PB regularly but dont contribute to it often, but one thing I can say is this, Glen is a stinkin’ tory but seems to have a grasp of some issues, therefore a worth enemy, but Tabitha just speaks nonsense most of the time and constantly adds those stupid ‘ Labor is this… Liberal is this’ comments. I can’t stand her contribution.
Anyhow, gotta go and do some gardening cos it is a great 30 degree day in perth today.
PJK
All the best. Don’t be scared. Look ‘em in the eye and be proud to declare yourself Labor. I don’t envy your task. Been there, it’s hard. Open face, be helpful to those dithering … be strong. Wear a clean shirt. Again – all the best!
Mr Squiggle @ 296
The person a the centre of this story, Paul Mullett, is a known Liberal supporter and was tipped to be a candidate for the party at some stage.
I don’t think this story will help the liberals, I don’t think it will help labor either. It is seen as a local issue. That doesn’t mean the Media wouldn’t be pushing the national angle if he was a labor supporter, seeing as he is the head of the Police Union in Victoria.
The correct way, I think, is to do this:
bold,
not [b]bold[/b]
Which is to say
text, leaving out the spaces.
Viscous article by Michael Gawenda in today’s Saturday Age about vacuous and pathetic Howard, he dont hold back, I dont think its online, but worth a look…ohhhh.
Also just found The Latham Diaries in the op shop, bought it, opened up to what went wrong in 2004,
he said letting the Lib advertising go unchallenged, he said it could have been prevented (somewhat) by earnest quick and ferocious rebuttals abd cites Bill Clinton advocating same in his memiors.
SO the lesson here is
Everytime Howard says interest rates, say interest rates will be ok under labor,
everytime Howard says employment, (which he is) say Labour is about Jons growth,
I eblieve its just called counter attacking and being mobile (like Manstien on the eastern front after stalingrad
) and rebutting ALL the government attacks
If labor believes it can let them go to the keeper unchallenged it just creates doubt in ppls minds.
All people need to be brought back is reassurance and Labour addressing every issue.
The policies do not speak for themselves.
Spin must be unspun. Rudd must take the economic fight right up to the government to neutralize it otherwise Rudd might lose. Damn what the polls say.
Hope youre taking notes Kevin…..
PS, this close to the 2004 election Labour was at least 3 % in 2pp behind.
Whoops. Ue the brackets, not the [ and ] brackets.
For Jon’s growth above read Jobs growth.
Rudd calls for ‘trench warfare’ on IR
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22735135-12377,00.html
Now for the start of the real campaign
Derek Corbett, try 3 mobile, its usb modem works fine with my MacBook.
And at $39 a month including the modem and 1GB downloads, its considerably cheaper than Telstra.
bolditalicssubscriptheading and
Where are all the Labor Ads?
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22707612-28737,00.html
‘All we want is the Truth’ says a headline in The Australian.
Ironic aint it……
@ AM
What do you mean?
I just saw a clip on sky news about age break down and swings
They say that the swing for 40-54 age group is 10.7% to Labor, 9.4% for 18-24 and 7.4% for 55+. I think it is from this online poll but I’m not sure. They said there was also a swing on in the 25-39 group
How the hell are the Lib sympathisers trying to spin this election as anything less than a vaporisation for the Libs?
Scratching my head people……
I don’t watch much commercial TV so I haven’t seen many Labor ads. I was a bit worried because all I’d seen were the Liberal “union boss” ads, I thought, uncontested. Then I saw a bit of daytime TV the other day. There were some quite good Labor, ACTU and NSW Nurses Assoc ads every break. I particularly liked the Nurses Assoc ad with the little old lady on a walker hobbling out of a darkened ward into a darkened hospital corridor calling for a nurse. The caption read something like “how many less nurses will there be under Workchoices?”
I felt a bit better.
I tell you what if AM means the blanket Lib ads on tv (wall to wall) they may have a point.
If Labor doesn’t immensly counterattack it is in trouble. Damn the polls.
Gerr
Gawenda! Michael Gawenda! The same bloke who presided over the demise of The Age? That Gawenda?
Gawenda is a nonsense. He’s a flim-flam word factory. Subbed him for years (in the other life).
Mike is a main-chance man. If he’s come up with something, maybe it’s an indication of the wind direction …
IE. The election wont be won on UTUBE.
To bold type <b>your text</b>
Italics – <i>your text</i> or <em>text<em>
To display the < symbol type: & l t ; (without the spaces) and for > it’s & g t ; (again without spaces)
325/321: I too feel there haven’t been terribly many ads for Labor on TV, especially since there seem to be quite a few good ones on Youtube.
I thought they were super cashed up, but I’m not seeing it on TV ads.
324: I’ll believe it when I see Howard’s concession speech, until then, I will stay mildly nervous.
@327
Have to agree, but article is good for what it is.
He also rights scathing peices on Bush which are nothing but rehashes of US press.
Libs reckon they can’t see 16 seats falling and that the swing is locked up in safe ALP and safe Lib seats. That’s why their running the hoons, cops and potholes campaign in the marginals. It’s beyond cynicism but who knows? What’s the line about never underestimating the intelligence of the electorate?
Latham diaries writes that in 2004 Labor left all until last week but then the Lib ads had broekn thru as they had been blanket for 2-3 weeks. Hope Labor is not repeating history.
Again I hope you are taking notes Labor party man monitoring this site….whoever you are ….probably Glen.
Darn
<em>text<em> should be: <em>text</em>
Gerr,
Where I live which is a marginal NSW seat there are plenty of Lib/National ads, but hardly any Labor ads to counter them. Is Labor getting complacent? they still neeed to spend there money on ads, to counter the propaganda.
bolditalics
now is the time for all good men and women to come to the celebration party on 24 November
Note: no spaces between the symbols.
Thanks AM
It’s a worry. Hoep they’re not misjudging thia again. Or overestimating the electorate.
Damien 332, which Libs, where? Do some research at possums pollytics, learn basic arithmetic, then post. Otherwise you might just look like a bit of dill.
cheers,
Alan H
I’ve just had quick trawl through comments (so there may be some) but I haven’t seen anything on (a) Why Morgan chose to “bury” the f2f in Finding #4237 on the phone poll instead of reporting it separately, and (b) Why the f2f result is not shown in the graph contained in the finding. Has he commented at all?
I saw Labor ads last night and fewer Liberal ads.
Alan, I work with a couple of connected coalition types. I agree with you (he says, pulling arrow from hat) just reporting what they are saying to me.
“.. until then, I will stay mildly nervous”.
Off on a tangent, prepare yourself for the major downer of missing this permanently mildly nervous state. That will be a big funk. No frissons of excitement at some encouraging news, no ravages of unreasoning doubt when a poll narrows by a point or two.
Enjoy the moment. Once it’s over and Rudd slowly over time begins to irritate as PM with his endless referring tough decisions to committee and his all-too middle of the road safety in everything he does and says, this will but a distant slightly hard-to-understand memory.
Just think about this for a second. All of the ads, all of the media exposure and all of the spin has been coming from the right during he campaig so far, and they trail miserably. Just imagine how much of an annihilation it will turn into once both sides share equal billing in the last two weeks. There will be two major parties after the election, Labor & the Greens!
PJK for Prez @ 2:14pm.
I feel your pain, bro. I’ve got an all day gig handing out ALP HTVs at a Wagga Riverina booth – deep in ultra safe Nats country.
I hope I have the last laugh.
Just started reading a biography of an Ethiopian dictator. It begins:
“It was a small dog, a Japanese breed. His name was Lulu. He was allowed to sleep in the Emperor’s great bed. During various ceremonies, he would run away from the Emperor’s lap and pee on dignitaries’ shoes. The august gentlemen were not allowed to flinch or make the slightest gesture when they felt their feet getting wet. I had to walk among the dignitaries and wipe the urine from their shoes with a satin cloth. This was my job for ten years.”
That’s gotta be written by Cossie with Janette the dog!
Maybe I should write to my local Labor mp and tell him of the danger he and his colleagues face if they don’t pull their finger out….
They also tell me they think they’ll lose about 12 and may gain two, one in WA can’t remember where the other hopeful (for them) is.
Does this work too322
Gerr Says:
November 10th, 2007 at 2:57 pm
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22707612-28737,00.html
‘All we want is the Truth’ says a headline in The Australian.
..
Yet another argument for getting rid of this discredited and degenerate government, Gerr – Thanks for pointing it out.
Some of you people are unbelievable. For heaven sake have a look at what’s going on around you and stop the fretting. Labor is in a strong position and has plenty to run with. Sheeh
Yeah. Couldn’t have been anything Latham did that was wrong, so it must have been the ads. Afterall we all know Latham was a genius who was incapable of doing anything wrong.
Damien J #346,
Both of the LNP hopefuls (Cowan and Swan) are in WA.
Graham Edwards in Cowan held on by 0.8% in 2004, and is retiring this year.
Kim Wilkie in Swan just barely survived with 0.1% in Swan, and polling done by the West Australian puts him under threat.
Rudd and the ALP need to get their collective thumbs out of their backsides, and flood the airwaves with ads. Host local events. Get name recognition for their candidates. Give people a reason to vote for them. Generally act like a strong opposition. And, above all, destroy the many and varied furphies put forward by Howard and his spin-merchants.
Now, can I raise something. On 774 in melbourne (I believe on Thursday), Bill Shorten talked about “modern labor”. Rudd on Lateline discussed being a labor “moderniser”.
Anyone know if this is a theme that we will see at the campaign launch?
I see Lucy the sheep has been arrested by the AFP trying to get into a Howard campaign event. A journo trying to find out if she was OK was also threatened with arrest.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22734851-12377,00.html
Thanks Gary. I feel like Richard Attenbrough in one of those old B/W British war films – sweat beading on the brow until Trevor Howard or Jack Hawkins tells me “pull youself together, man!”
Every time a Labor politican uses the phrase “a Rudd Labor government”..
it comes out sounding like
“A Rod Laver government.”
Really. Next time, have a close listen. No bad thing I suppose but he’s a bit old.
“Not here, Wilhelmina …!”
“Don’t cry for me, Wilhelmina …”
S @ 320
Ta for that. I have a iBook G4. Because I’m on the road, I have to use wireless. My work takes me to all sorts of places around Australia. Sadly, Telstra is the only option. It’s simply a question of coverage.
Telstra’s modem does not work with my Mac laptop. They tried a patch, but it will not work and never will because my Mac, apparently, employs out-of-date Motorola circuits. Er. So, I purchased this refurbished Dell thingy. It has lots of buttons.
Plan for election night?
It was an ONLINE poll though, there is no reason not to believe that most people who read The Age are lefties anyway. If fact I’m surprised that the result is so close given the readership.
You seem to think advertising is the magic elixir. I’m sure it helps to a small degree but think of this. Which party has, in the last few months, spent your and my money (35 odd million dollars) telling us how good they’ve been and how good their IR policy is for Australia? What effect did that have on the polls.
The anti IR mood is well and truly out there. Labor will massage this mood with its advertising. STOP FRETTING.
Damian 346, of course your libs tell of a lib win. This is important for morale. The problem of course is that it has no bearing to the polling reality. Once the Rudd honeymoon is over and strippergate and burkegate and earwaxgate and the election is called and ONLY then will the polls narrow and deliver victory. Lala land is very cute don’t you think?
Is this a psephology forum or a friggen html worshop? (I’m appreciating the tips though.)
Like lots of you, I’m so nervous – the disappointments of the past haunt. But I was considerably cheered up when listening to Geraldine Doogue’s breakfast program on Radio National today. She has been following one family with 4 family members ( 3 siblings and one from next generation, child of another sibling) having different political outlooks. The one (country male) who is rusted on liberal said that it’s all over, he can’t bear to listen to the radio any more or read the newspapers about the elections – it’s all just too depressing for him. He says the polls are always pretty correct. The city female was going to vote Labor in both houses, but thinks she will vote Green in the Senate now. The 18 year old still intends to vote for Tony Windsor but Rudd is increasingly impressing her and her friends. The apolitical one, who voted Liberal last time, can’t bear Rudd, and thinks he probably will go with Howard. He says he can’t see Labor winning – all the people he talks to will not vote Labor.
4 votes – no change in 2 weeks. I know it is only anecdotal, but it does give comfort!
Gary #359,
I will stop fretting when either of two events occurs:
1. The ALP starts taking the rhetorical fight to Howard, instead of letting him spruik himself on his own terms; or
2. Nov 25 dawns, and the election is over.
Also Gary,
Yes, I appreciate the probability that the ALP is applying The Art of War to this campaign, but if you go out into the general electorate, you will find that less than 10% have even heard of The Art of War, or The 36 Strategies.
Perception often counts for more than reality in politics, and the perception is that the ALP is letting Howard own the economic battlefield, when in reality he shouldn’t.
Jon @ 353
Seems our PM only plays Dr Doolittle with economic management. (Poor Lucy.)
Now here are some of Dr Dolittle’s best animal friends (according to Wikipedia): Dab-Dab (a duck), Chee-Chee (a monkey) and Too-Too (an owl).
Or should that be Me-Too? Anyway, I think the monkey is Abbott.
Thanks for the reassurance but it doesn’t help. I’m going outside to plant some pumpkins.
I was fully expecting ALP advertising to start today. Watching the cricket not one ad. Where are our No Nuclear Power ads, IR ads and Global Warming Ads?
By the time the pumpkins are ripe for the pickin’ you’ll be sick of the sight and sounds of PM Rudd.
Mathew Cole 351
I went to Kingsway Branch AGM about 7 weeks ago and had a chat to Graham Edwards and he was under belieft that Cowan was tight, but now after many internal polls, Cowan is looking like an easy hold for Liz Prime. Also, I live in Cowan and I can tell you now, I know a large amount of people who voted Libs last election in Cowan are voting for Liz/Rudd now… Most of them seem to be in their early 40s with teenage kids (obviously House Affordablity for the kids is a concern).
Don’t worry my sources in Cowan say the internal polling in WA is as follows
Gains – Hasluck
Holds – Swan, Cowan (increased majorities)
Too Close to call – Stirling, Brand (suprisingly), Kalgoorlie
In play – Moore (suprisingly), Forrest (suprising) & Canning
Matt and Damien, get a reality grip. The Alp is at least as good a position as Libs in 1996. These are situations that are rare. Instead of fretting enjoy the moment in history for as long as it lasts. The art of war teaches us that if you are in a strong position play weak. Alp will scrape in by 1 seat 30 seats. Who cares. A win is a win is a win!
MayoFeral
Ah, brings it all back … the em space and the en space … the em ruler … linotype .. thems were the days … hot metal.
What’s your idea for election night?
367 Chris B I posted this before I saw the others on this page. I’ve also sent a copy to the Vic ALP.
Yeah I don’t watch telly at all. You can’t tell me the ALP don’t have any ads up can you? Please tell me they do.
MayoFeral
Ah, brings it all back … the em and the en … the em ruler … linotype .. thems were the days … hot metal.
What’s your idea for election night?
What we probably were aware of – the Howard Government has and, plans the continual destruction of democracy. This government is extremely scary – it thinks it is right to cancel freedom of speech and information.
Dazzamack your scenario was the best case for the ALP in WA.
Worst case is:
Stirling and Hasluck held.
Cowan and Swan gains for the tories.
Brand with reduced majority.
Both of our scenarios are possible, we just won’t know till the 24th. Anything can happen out west.
Though even in your scenario Keenan has a better chance of holding Stirling than Henry has at holding Hasluck if the chips were down for the Tories.
358: I pity you, I could never go back to Windows after my 12 months of Mac. And to think I used to tease Mac users.
Despite its expense – Next G has amazing coverage.
Election night is my son’s first birthday – so it will be my parents and my wife over I think. Hopefully my parents are voting Labor, otherwise it could be a fairly uncomfortable night
One of the best ads is the No Nuclear Power plants in Victoria, its on You Tube but hasn’t been shown on TV.
Election night for me will be TV, drinking, yelling (at the TV), drinking, eating, drinking, crying….then drinking etc etc
Matthew Cole 351
Where is this polling that suggests that Swan is under threat?
This is the best weekend for the start of the campaign, and I have seen none in Victoria. They can’t say the cricket was booked out, because they were granted an extra minute per hour advertising time in the election. I am starting to get annoyed.
also 367, rudd has taken it right up to howard on the economy whereas latham labor ran a mile. Even so there is only so much oxygen in this. The last 2 weeks will not be dominated by economics but by education health climate change and IR. And finally howard is the big issue in 2007 and he is a big liability for the libs. Fascinating 2 weeks to go.
373 John Hunt Is A Coward. If that’s all they win by then they have run a really BAD campaign!!!!
Dr Good #383,
You will find it at Adam Carr’s site, under the “Swan” seat description.
JHIAC #373,
It is not at all like 1996. There are two crucial differences:
1. While there’s a lot of anger at the incumbent, it’s concentrated among a relatively small number of people – no baseball bats out there.
2. More importantly, the incumbent isn’t facing a hostile media, the way Keating had to in 1996. Instead, Howard enjoys the servility of the media outlets of the nation.
386 if they lose it is a disaster. If they win by 1 it is sweet but a little bitter
387 I agree to a point but the difference is: no offence mr Howard but you are out of touch
Glen 379
Yes, we won’t know until election night, but internal polling is relevant and can be taken as a guide of what may happen, but I do feel that at last WA has started to swing significantly to the left since the campaign has started.
You must understand that the average Western Australian is anti-change regardless of the issue, but once enough people jump on board the issue of change the rest follow… For example – Mandurah Railway Line, most against it and as it nears completion more ppl get excited about it and like sheep jump on board…. now that it is about to complete everyone can’t wait to use it, another issue during the Dick Court years was the Polly Farmer Tunnel, most didn’t want it, but as it neared completion people jumped on board and started liking it and now it is loved by most road users and couldnt imagine Perth without it.
The same is happening with Labor here… no one wanted change from Howard, but as time goes on and nears to D-day, people start to get used to the idea of a new government and by D-day you will find that the Libs have lost their marginal seats and maybe even a suprise of Kalgoorlie or Canning.
In fact I will give up bloggin altogether if we lose any seats in WA, I am that confident now that its all done and dusted here in the West…
Well i would posit that if it is looking like a close election ie gets to 52-48 or 51-49 then the liberals could hold their marginals and maybe get Cowan or Swan but i agree if it stays at 54-46 or higher then at the most 2 Liberal marginals will be gone (the bandwagon effect is strong in WA).
366 Mathew Cole – Well Matt then I can’t help you. Keep fretting and worrying over things you have no control over. Keep on misreading the signs out there. Keep ignoring all of the empiricle data suggesting the Libs are in trouble and have a worrying two weeks. What more can I say?
I find that there is wayyyyyyyyyyy too many Lefties on PB runnin’ around like headless chooks… I understand that the Evil Dark Lord Rodent has managed to pull sh*t out of his arse at the most opportune times, but I doubt there is much that can save him this time..
I believe even a terrorist attack on our great country may have a negative effect on Howard (as in the last Spain election). The only thing that could see The Rodent hold this time is a major scandal involving Labor, but most importantly, Rudd (example, video of Rudd backdooring Amanda Vanstone in The Great Hall of Parliament) that would even put me off voting for him.
Sooooooooooooooo, harden the f**k up Labor people. It’s all over and the tories know it, but don’t have the cajones to admit it to you yet.
Glen it sounds like you are trying to convince yourself. Your the boy who got horse manure for Xmas and spends the rest of your life looking for the pony.
I would never to be sure of WA
The media in Perth (and particuarly The West Australian newspaper) would have to be the most conservative in the nation.
Everyday Perth people are bombarded with anti-Rudd rubbish. According to The West, Rudd will take away my super, inflation wiill hit 1000%, Rudd eats feotuses etc etc
I think at best the ALP will gain one seat in WA, and eat into the margins of others
I have tried numerous times to put a comment on a News Limited Website. Each time the comment has never made it out of moderation. I notice a few contributors here (Scaper and Kina) get their comments posted.
Do others have trouble?? My comments are moderate. Except for the last one in which I accussed them of being a pack of lying b*stards. I assume I am forever banned.
A curse on the house of Murdoch.
Mark 396
I always have trouble getting past GG moderation, but most of the time its my own fault because whores like Caroline and Janet piss me off so incredibly that I always add some colourful language to my post. But what usually happens is they delete the colourful language or personal attacks and post the rest.
Inner Westie @364
Get nicked. I wish to learn. You might know how to do these things – I don’t. Windows is a mystery for me. I work with Mac. Pull your head in … and what are your plans for the election-night party?
Spears on Agenda said tomorrows poll shows that Turnbull is “in for the fight of his life in Wentworth”.
Absolutely everything about that Morgan 62/38 outlier was perfectly normal except, the Liberal primary which was down 5% Amazing that everything else turns up normal except for one figure.
Morgan shouldn’t be embarassed about it – all the pollsters have outliers, thats life. AND who knows, maybe they have picked up something thats going on. Some have noted that Morgan tended to find the trends before the other polls. :]
Mathew Cole 387
Thanks Mathew. I think Adam wrote that long ago (after some rogue poll
of the whole of WA showing only a small swing) and I have not seen
any polling that suggests that Swan is in trouble at all.
All the recent WA state-wide polls show an average swing of 6-9% to Labor:
and that is going back several months now.
There have been a few individual WA seat polls which show a more complicated
picture at that detail but no-one is bothering to poll Swan.
Mark @ 396
If you think you have been banned by those filthly tories at News Ltd, hold your head up high!
Everybody knows the GG is a “sheltered workshop” for Lib hacks!
Come on Rupert, hurry up and die.
matthew cole is your anxiety and depression perhaps more to do with the possibility that you are a closet liberal supporters. If yes then your malaise is totally rational as it would based on fact rather than fantasy.
Mark 396
I gave another email address and got through fine.
Try using another email address, I got banned for suggesting warney and Pauline would do well in Germany together
This is a campaign that SHOULD be one by the greatest margin ever. If they only win it by a little bit, then the if next one isn’t as easy as this. WE LOSE.
Actually, talking of WA polling, it seems that Westpoll is late with its
November WA poll.
http://www.marketresearch.com.au/our_services__flashpoll_dates.21.html
The last few monthly ones seemed to come out in the West Australian
on the Saturday after “reporting date”. So that would be today
for the November poll.
It is possible that the West Australian newspaper actually has the
results on time but can’t think how to make them look good for the
Liberals.
JHIAC #405,
What rot. The day that I vote, or even preference Liberal, is the day you need to check for electoral fraud. Never done it, never going to. I am fully aware of what a destructive force they are, and want nothing to do with them.
Unfortunately, the average Joe Six-pack has disagreed with me time and time again. Gotta face it, Howard and his cronies are good at issuing bribes and barrels of pork.
SeanofPerth 395
Refer to #393.. Harden up lad! There was enough voters in WA to vote in a Labor state government for the last 2 occasions (even with the ultraconservative media here at work), therefore there must be enough people in WA that are willing to vote Labor in federal politics too. Stop letting people like Glen, Tabitha & Ave it 07 make you nervous.
How old is Rupert? Will the neo-chronical GG change then?
Dr Good 401
Wait A-while internal polling by Labor is showing a general swing of 8% currently
Glad to hear it matt. Just thought i’d check…
re rodent fear not. Life is change and the wheel is turning
have a bit of faith and balls
When Rupe snuffs it the GG will be closed down!
Election night I’ll be at the ALP party in Moreton – if there’s any reward for hard work, we’ll at least be celebrating the seat win. But hopefully it will be all over anyway by the time the polls close in Qld.
The booth I’ll be working (Moorvale) went 52.6-47.4 to Labor in a losing campaign in 2004; so this time round it should be a good place to spend the day
The Libs are like Sri Lanka 340 behind and batting again, yet some people still think they can win.
Its all over.
JHIAC #413,
Checking…..yep, got the balls. Faith – that’s another matter. When it comes to the intelligence of the average voter, I’m an atheist. If Labor wins this election with a clean campaign, I’ll start believing in God again (metaphorically speaking).
I don’t think Rupert will be dropping in on his Georgian friends to soon.
The fact that you can now find journalists writing off the Liberals, barring a world catastophe of some sort, is proof to me that the Libs are in awful trouble. Those same journalists have not been game to predict anything up til now.
Mathew, I trust the average voter. It’s the half of the population below average intelligence that worry me at all.
50-50 TPP in Wentworth according to Galaxy:
Turnbull ahead by 8 pts on primary, sample size 800
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/11/10/2087354.htm
have to favour turnbull on those figures
Federal Environment Minister Malcolm Turnbull is facing a strong challenge to his eastern Sydney seat of Wentworth, according to a new galaxy poll to be published tomorrow.
The poll of 800 voters in the Sunday Telegraph shows Mr Turnbull leading Labor’s candidate George Newhouse by eight points on primary votes.
But after preferences, the two parties are locked at 50 per cent each.
In 106 years, Wentworth has never been held by Labor, but Mr Turnbull is trying to hold it with a margin of 2.5 per cent.
Warning, blatant self promotion ahead
382 Brissy Rod, perhaps my election telecast drinking game can help give you some focus on the big night.
Turnbull under a bit of pressure in Wentworth? Sounds good for Labor nationally, as one would think it’d be the seat with the least swing in Eastern seaboard states.
The discussions on these online debates now shouldnt be whether Labor wins the election but more about which safe Exclusive Brethren & National Farmer Association seats will fall to Labor. We have reached that point I believe. Labor WILL win, its just a matter of which Ministers will get the arse. I wish you guys would stop falling for the tory propaganda that they are still in it when all the evidence shows THEY ARE CLEARLY NOT.
I think Turnbull will hold Wentworth, but if he only holds it by >1%, it will kill his chances of being leader – unless they figure him being leader would give him a few votes (though after the Bennelong loss I doubt they’ll risk it)
Just got back from the ALP arts launch at Parramatta. Garrett and McKew both there. Garrett spoke very well, and good support in the artistic community, but then again ther always is.
Labor’s Arts Policy Launch:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/11/10/2087364.htm?section=justin
I wonder if Keith Winschuttle was there?
David Spears almost gloats every time he mentions Howard’s name. I wonder when he’ll enter politics for the Liberal Party. Oh wait, I think he already has.
Sorry forgot the “d” Windschuttle. d for dunce.
If the polls hold or narrow only a little you’ll see our friend Rupert the walking corpse endorse Rudd before the 24th. Though he’ll each way bet it with commissioning some felching artlcles from Shanahan and Kelly.
Though Kelly might be a 50-50%.
@419 Gary Bruce
links? evidence?
sorry if this has been said, just logged on, but hey, Lucy the Sheep has been arrested.
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,22735471-2,00.html
cute sheep
ruawake 416
Headingley 1981. Calcutta 2001. If your using cricket analogies, please realise that teams have won after following on (and Australia lost both times, bugger it)…… although very rarely. I’m sorry, I’m a cricket triiva buff, and I couldn’t let that one slide LOL
BUT, I think that the Libs are headed for an innings defeat in cricket jargon.
I am sick of the Laborites on this site with this attitude that JWH will pull something out. He hasn’t for 9 months (since the beginning of the campaign, yeah OK officiall it started 4 weeks ago, but who are we kidding).
People, he has 2 weeks to pull back 4-5%, that’s a lot of votes.
Positive thinking people……..
Just a little comment on the campaign, can anyone remember what were the dominant features of week Two, Right thought not. Labour has won every state election for yonks, the tories have one one federal every 3 years, the ALP machine have been getting better at this stuff, one of my favourite saying is “Don’t skin the Bear until its Dead”
hello folks , I had a call from the Daily Telegraph yesterday informing me that they were doing a promotion in my area and offering to sign me up for a subscription.
Of course i politely told them what they could do with their liberal party rubbish!
The only thing that might save him is a stock market crash. Wall St is very jittery, down another 2% or so last night. The chances of anything dramatic happening in the next two weeks is slim though. I guess even a ‘correction’ of 10-15% would be hyped up so much by the government and press that it could swing a few votes. It would have to be pretty dramatic to register with the average voter though.
I had a sheep one time and his name was Max – well every morning I’d say “good morning max, had a good night?” He’d say Naaaaaaa “Did you like your food? he’d say naaaaaa – In the end I’d say do you like that fcker JWH and he’d say NAAAAAAAAA – smart sheep that
Sir Eggo
There are no beefies of vvs’s in the Liberal team.
Here, here Vera!
Ofcourse there is the sleeping-dog matter of Iran….another military adventure might do the trick. Won’t be surprised by any dirty tricks.
ruawake 440
Yeah, but are there umpires prepared to give Harbajan some dodgy lb decisions among the voters
I am the analogy king!!!!! LOL
SirEggo
Only if they can get visas. Boom Boom.
‘There was a cunning old polly called Howard
Whose nature painted him as a coward
He wore sincerity as a mask
Which the people saw through like glass
And he ended up being totally shattered’
# 436 FTP, I recall Labor won week 2 because of the Leaders Debate. Week 1 was awarded to Howard because of the tax cuts.
Lindsay voter, thats true, but Labor has no big counter-punch in that week
I’m sure at the ALP launch, there will be a big policy anouncement (im guessing something to do with unis or climate)
That will take away the momentum of the Libs
The Libs went well in week one becuase they just loaded pressure on Rudd to release his tax policy and thats all everyone crapped on about until the following week
Did anyone see Ratty on the 10 news? Him and Mrs Rat were in a near empty basketball stadium out Penrith way. They were both bending down trying to accost the couple of dozen young kiddies that had been set up for a bit of politicing and the silly old buggy was going ‘click, click’ pretenting he was taking photos … well I think that was what he was up too! fark! I think he’s losing it… Oh and God he’s looking so ooooollllllddd!!!
“The only thing that might save him is a stock market crash.”
That will only give Labor the chance to talk up business with China… and planning for beyond the mining boom etc… ie. someone thinking and planning ahead, not just relying on the USA. Rudd’s Chinese ‘connection’ is quite a useful trick to have up his sleave.
It also builds into poeples fears about their income and how WorkChoices AWAs take it away and interest rates pushes up costs.
That should have been .. silly old bugger not buggy ..but then again..
What the hell is wrong with you, comrades? Where has all this pessimism come from? Did I miss a poll while I was reading my book? No. Can’t see anything new on the net. It’s going to be a cakewalk. The people have had enough of Howard. Havent they told us in every fuc*ing poll for twelve months? As someone said earlier, the only question is how many ministers lose their seats and what champagne to buy.
432 Gerr – Ok, let me name two for a start off. Laura Tingle (Lateline last night) and Imre (sorry forgotten his last name – writes for ‘The Australian’) on Agenda some nights back. Laurie Oakes on Sunday. I rest my case.
Make that 3.
Diogenes 452
Fully behind you there fellow Commie. These so called ‘True Believers’ are making me sick. Harden-uuuuuuuuuuuuup fools, its 2 weeks to Utopia.
Just look at The Rat yesterday when the lady got flattened, he doesnt know what to do anymore, in any respect of life, he looks lost. This lady was postrate on the ground and all he could do is look at her like a stunned mullet, then when it registered that he is of no use to anyone and doesn’t have the ability to give first aid The Rat took off. What a coward.
His whole flight or fight instinct was shown in its entire glory yesterday… When The Rat sees trouble he runs. Is this the type of guy we need as leader in these so called troubled times… I think not
Daily Telegraph Bennelong poll on Monday: said it will shock seasoned political observers. This was featured on today’s front page along with a picture of Maxine, which makes me think it might be more bad news for the Rodent.
Rodent… you are the weakest link… goodbye
Thought I might give the limerick contest a kickalong:
A pugilistic ex-seminarian,
Sought control of all matters ovarian,
Come November (five and twenty),
He’ll need sedatives a-plenty,
And a stint in a nice sanitarium.
I’m in Bennelong, and the support for Maxine around here is overwhelming. There’s a Maxine poster in front of at least one house in every street. I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s deep trouble for the Rodent.
Dazzamack – you are keeping me sane. I am at the fidgetty stage too. I’ve been around as long as Howard and I can tell you that those 30 years have been 30 too long – underneath he and Hyacinth are the sneakiest little pair (polite, aren’t I!) that you could come across. I worked for Ruddock’s father’s best mate for a few years in the 80s and the talk around the legal mob was that he was very much less than a suburban solicitor. Has never changed from what I can see. So I want him out for my own sanity and to save the telly set from my demented husband who wants to throw something at it when Howard appears.
Thanks to the rest of you too – in my darkest moments I can manage to get a laugh and cheer from your comments.
Ophuph Hucksake 458
Superb. Best yet I reckon. Sets standard even higher.
Su H,
I take everything back, Labor is in dire trouble, I just read in the Terrorgraph that Shannon Noll is supporting the National Party. So by my calculations all the young voters in australia will suddenly vote for the Coalition because the greatest rock singer this country has ever known is supporting the Nationals.
Its time to get worried.
Sky News election coverage linked from News Ltd online sites is most of the time showing Howard press conferences. I have tuned in three times and have only seen Howard talking. Talk about state-controlled television!
http://www.news.com.au/live/popup
pic of howard and the fallen woman at the shopping center with him saying:
“listen b*tch, you’ve never been better off, so get up because i’m nto going to aplologise.”
v. funny……
http://s242.photobucket.com/albums/ff86/virtualkat/?action=view¤t=apologise.jpg
Ever since I saw Maxine on SBS with a local Bennelong audience I knew she was going to win. She was winning doubters in the audience in the space of an hour. AND a lot of locals would have watched the show – about themselves, the PM and Maxine. All would have been impressed. Rudd’s Chinese connections and continual focus on education also certainly helps with the asian segment.
Okay, yesterday, Alex the prank handshaker gets taken away and ‘talked to’
by the police, today, Lucy the Sheep gets arrested, roughed up AND a photographer who asks her if she’s okay, get threatened with arrest…
What is wrong with this country? Why is this acceptable?
Once again, got that sick feeling in my guts.
Please, let Labor win.
Who cares about Shannon Noll?
David Wenham is backing Labor. That ought to win Rudd some more of the female vote
Great! I’ve got $300 on Max to win in Bennelong.
I bet the poll on Monday shows Max ahead 53-47. Labor has been getting 52 or 53 in every poll since the beginning of the year.
Your average punter simply refuses to believe that Howard can lose. I prefer to trust the 5 or 6 polls which have been run, all of which showing Howard is going down.
I think people are erroneously applying the whole “narrowing” idea to Bennelong (not just nationwide). But if anything, I would expect a widening. Maxine will win more people over the more people she meets… not so John Howard, who already has a massive (and ugly) profile.
Pravda will cease opertations soon. Maybe Pravda was more objective than the GG.
461
Rusted on Says:
Ophuph Hucksake 458
Superb. Best yet I reckon. Sets standard even higher.
I agree, the bar has just been lifted another notch or two.
Well done, OH.
The limericking brought to mind John Dengate’s “I can’t abide” -http://unionsong.com/u046.html (no idea how to link it!!) – the Titanic imagery may well be most appropriate in two-double 0-kevin
BTW, Howard Hater: where did you see the Bennelong info? Was it in the treeware version of today’s paper or online?
Kina 464,
I saw that SBS Insight program too. Maxine was composed, but obviously upbeat that night and The Rat looked troubled, and we are talking about a program that went to air about 3 months ago. Imagine how worried The Rodent would be by now. he must know he is gone.
When my girlfriend sees Rudd kickin it in Mandarin on Chinese Satelite she gets very hyped because some white guy has bothered to learn her language and could run the country she has chosen to call home. I can just imagine how many Chinese/Asian voters in Bennelong, which make 17% of the seat are feeling right now. I would say it will be a 90-10 split among the asian vote.
The asian vote must not be undersestimated here.
Maxine WILL win the seat, and The Rodent knows it.
Likewise Ashley, a bit of a wager on Maxine here too. I’ve been amused to see her shorten to $2.60 on SPortingbet and then go out to $2.75 as the mugs piled in on the last Newspoll! Still, got mine at $2.80 the week before the rate rise, and I’m just itching to see Labor’s primary rise on the strength of that little blunder by the Rodent.
The Cyclops of Oz (Shannahan) can point to the 12% who say they blame Howard for the rate rise and then claim it’s not large enough to matter, but what the one-eyed Sham won’t say is that a lot of that 12% will be in seats that do matter, and they will also be in Bennelong.
When the voters of Bennelong see he’s headed for political oblivion, they ain’t going to vote for him out of sympathy!
On ALP’s TVCs. I know this horse has been flogged a bit today, but it still hasn’t been answered to my satisfaction (don’t have a TV at the moment, which also adds to my confusion about this issue). Am in advertising and am trying to get my head around what, on the face of it, seems to be a strategic marketing error in the ALP’s campaign. A few comments:
- From various comments here, it appears Labor’s TV advertising is definitely running second to LNP (though it’s certainly not non-existent). Union Workchoices ads are a good help but they don’t substitute for ALP ads.
- The fact Latham lost the election doesn’t mean he’s necessarily wrong about TV advertising. That’s a logical fallacy.
- The fact ALP is ahead in the polls doesn’t mean it should give up advertising. It’s by no means in the bag yet. And the Libs’ scare campaign surely demands some direct rebuttal (they proved it could work last time, after all). I don’t buy that because ALP is polling well the Coalition ads are 100% ineffective and we can sit on our hands, or save our pennies. Sure, ALP might win without advertising at all; but why not increase our chances if we can?
- A week or two ago, I heard talk that ALP was saving up an enormous warchest to spend in the closing weeks of the campaign. But it seems that it hasn’t started yet.
Now sure, you need to present voters with your ideas fairly late in the day, so that the ideas are still fresh in their heads in the ballot box. But ideas also need a little time to sink in; that’s especially the case when you’ve had a scare campaign priming people for weeks. Psych research has demonstrated that people tend to believe in the ideas that hit them “first” in time, rather than later in time. If they leave it too late, the fear might start getting ingrained.
I guess it all boils down to — start spending your cash, boys. Now. Perhaps the onslaught will begin this Saturday or Sunday, but leaving it much later would seem to be reckless in the extreme…
Dazzamack from Perth i hate to spoil the party but Howard is on around about 4.5% that would require a landslide result for Labor to win and a massive drop in Howard’s primary vote which aint gonna happen. Labor’s primary vote was extremely low in 2004 and all you’ve done now is taken votes off the greens who got 16% with Wilkie so don’t get your hopes up on knocking off Howard, this will only happen in a massive landslide.
Oh and the Asian voters you’d expect would be more Labor than Liberals anyway so no big loss for Howie.
Diogenes, even Geelong supporters were nervous before they played Port in this years Grand Final.
#475
Yes I second this. Any ALP insiders on this blog should really convey to the Campaign advisers that the TV onslaught should begin no later than tomorrow. The Coalition will step things up a notch in the final weeks, and there could be hell to pay for the ALP if they don’t begin the blitz ASAP. People don’t hate the unions, but they will if the Coalition’s ads go unanswered.
Glen — how do explain the 3 galaxy polls to date (plus possibly another one on Monday) which all show Maxine winning with a minimum of 52-48.
If it was a single poll, I’d give him the benefit of the doubt. But we’ve now had 5 since May (3 from galaxy, 2 from morgan)… and in all of them she is winning comfortably on both primary and TPP figures.
Actually, if they are saying it will shock seasoned political observers it is possible we may even have a 54-46 result.
I would bet 53-47 though.