The Age has published the third of ACNielsen’s online polls, which are taken from a representative sample of around 1400 volunteer market research subjects. It shows Labor leading 56-44 on two-party preferred, the same result as the previous such survey a fortnight ago. However, Labor’s primary vote is down two points to 45 per cent, with the Coalition also down a point to 40 per cent. John Howard has picked up three points on the preferred leader question directly at the expense of Kevin Rudd, whose lead is now 50 per cent to 42 per cent.
Reflections on the Miracle of Democracy at Work in the Greatest Nation on Earth
ACNielsen online poll: 56-44
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574 Comments
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LOL Mr Squiggle @ 134, the imagery has made my day
shaboh @ 148 – Main Stream Media – MSM.
I think mine @ 142 may show why ALP primary is dropping.
Mr Squiggle
Capricornia so it won’t make a difference:-(
Ah so there’s the coffin lid… let me just get my hammer and nails
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22733701-601,00.html
Talk about your stakes to the heart.
“The Workplace Authority confirmed 26,833 agreements had been knocked back for failing to comply with minimum standards since the Prime Minister introduced the fairness test in May.
Once deals are rejected, employers have 14 days to fix problems or have them permanently cancelled, with employees entitled to backpay.
Figures released yesterday by Workplace Authority chief Barbara Bennett show an enormous backlog of 142,000 individual and collective wage agreements — almost 80 per cent of all those lodged — are still waiting to be fully checked. ”
Even Barbara Bennett knows which way the wind is blowing!
The Tele is spinning hard for Howard:
http://www.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/story/0,22049,22731357-5001021,00.html
Malcolm Farr reckons that the Latham commentry yesterday “took up a lot of campaign time Labor would have wanted to devote to other issues”. Their bias has no end unfortunately. Thank God the natural readership of the tele wouldn’t be inclined to vote ALP even if their lives (or their children’s) depended on it. Just another two weeks when hopefully such obviously biased reporters will have limited access to the new PM.
Talk it up Johnny, Interest rates up, wages on AWA’s down. The more spin we get from the Liberals on their economic plans the more their primary vote deteriorates. Howard should never ask,’Who do you trust’ because the answer is anyone but him.
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/news/national/more-rate-rises-on-the-way/2007/11/09/1194329546427.html
Sinic – the Latham thing will be great for Labor. If you hated Latham the article confirms that Rudd is safe – he actually grumbles that Rudd is being too conservative!!
If Latham had endorsed Rudd I would be worried.
I’m not usually a fan of “Jack the Insider” but I liked his footy analogy today:
It’s always the way, the off field dramas can really hurt a team on the field.
“A number of the team’s top possession winners have been missing in action too, seemingly content to play the game from the wings and pick up a soft kick or two whenever a stray pass comes their way. Honest has been in the engine room, getting the hard ball but when he looks to dish off to Lexxy, “Truffles” Turnbull, the Stud, Broughie or “Fabulous Phil” Ruddock (B.O.G. in 2001). They are, to quote “Captain Blood” Jack Dyer, where the ball ain’t.”
Johnny of Arabia. Maybe this disguise will keep those pesky war crimes commissioners at bay.
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/news/national/sheik-down-for-pm-its-howard-of-arabia/2007/11/09/1194329499139.html
for those in Sydney Dennis Shanahan from the Oz will be on 2ue (954) in a couple of minutes if you wish to listen to crap
CL de Footscray @132 said:
Don’t know about the AFP but the ADF is most definitely feed up to the back teeth, not only because of being used. They’ve also had enough of the crazy decisions being made for them like Nelson buying crap fighters without consulting the blokes who fly them. In what other country would the head of its air force find out he’s getting new aircraft at a press conference? Aircraft not required or asked for!
This is why there are quite a few recently resigned officers standing as ALP candidates this year.
If this is from the same panel as the previous ACNielsen online polls. It is the most significant poll result this champaign. More on my blog.
My prediction: regardless of who wins, we’ll be getting tax cuts put into super next year. Let’s face it George M is on the money:
“The tax cuts should be put into superannuation, just this once, so fiscal policy soaks up some of the extra fuel in the economy. It may not affect the trajectory of inflation in the short run, but it would do something about inflationary expectations: it would remind voters that their government is as serious about fighting inflation as the Reserve Bank.”
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22732200-5013592,00.html
I only wish the ALP had been able to pledge to do it instead of have to “match” the Libs just to ensure there was no wedge. BUt if the ALP wins I expect Rudd and Swan to front up to a press conference much like Hawke and Keating did in 83:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kNZLCuFpAjM
Labor orientated story from someone who unlike the GG writers admits where he is coming from.
http://thinkerspodium.wordpress.com/2007/11/09/the-myth-of-the-economic-credibility-of-the-liberal-party/
When was the Nielsen taken? pre-or-post rate rise?
As the great PJK once said “What a beautiful set of numbers”.
Bryan @ 163 – you raise a very good point imo.
Well after these numbers I can sit back and watch the cricket today and enjoy life.
Will be back tonight to review the fall out from the AWAs – if Rudd and Julia can’t flay Howard, Costello and Uncle Buck alive with these, they don’t deserve to win.
This poll still to me represents a narrowing. Since the campaign started there has been an 8 point primary vote shift back to the coalition on this online poll. I doubt the method the preferences were distributed here as well. Also with Newspoll, ACN phone and galaxy all having the coalition primary vote on 42 or above I suspect this one is a bit out.
More evidence of poll loading on Sky and it’s beautiful.
For 18 months workchoices has ben poison, but ht eexclusive Sky News poll reveals 59% of people think the fiarness test is fair.
Sample size of 17, 12 from Young Lib HQ.
Sky says MOE = 0.
What a pack of clowns.
then we had Shamahnahan on 2ue this morning categorically saying the at th rate rise is a good thing for the govt, that he was weith Costello & Howard through the week and that they’re “happy” the discussion is back on the economy, and note how since the rate rise, Howard has improved as PPM in the Neilsen poll today.
Yeah, I’m sure the boys in LNP HQ are really doing cartwheels.
Dire, even for Dennis. Dire.
Apologies for typos.
Thommo – So what do you call 62/38? The pre-widening? Come on, there is no narrowing. Read Bryan’s post on oz politics.
Hahahahahahahahaha………….Workchoices “the gift that just keeps giving”.
Howard’s folly…..KABOOOOOOMMMMMMM
I hear Labor is launching its arts policy today in Parramatta.
JOHNNY COME LATELY-WHERE HAVE YOU BEEN VISITING.
Read some interesting observations from a UQ reader in politics published in the Courier Mail today (page13) indicating that John Howard has taken a ’save the silverware’ approach to his seat visits and on the ground campaigning.
Apart from campaigning in 3 safe Labor seats (Reid, Fremantle and Griffith of all places), JWH is desperately trying to stop Labor winning 16 seats by adopting a ‘baton down the hatches’ approach on the ground, protecting some marginal seats over the first four weekS.
In the first four weeks JWH has visited 16 Coalition seats: Robertson (NSW), Dobell (NSW), Bennelong (NSW) twice, Lindsay (NSW) twice, Parramatta (NSW) Latrobe (VIC) twice, McMillan (VIC), Deakin (VIC), Moreton (QLD), Longman (QLD), Bonner (QLD) Wakefeild (SA), Kingston (SA), Solomon (NT), Stirling (WA) and Hasluck (WA).
Reportedly, JWH is yet to visit his mate Turnbull in Wentworth, leaving him to his own devices for the first 4 weeks, along with Coalition candidates hoping to hang on to Eden Monaro (NSW), Cowper (NSW), Paterson (NSW), Page (NSW), Corangamite (VIC), Herbert (QLD), Blair (QLD), Makin (SA), Boothy (SA), Sturt (SA), Bass (TAS) and Braddon (TAS).
What about Mr Rudd ?
Our reader in politics tracking indicates that Rudd has visited every one of the seats listed above except for Parramatta, Paterson, Bennelong, Lindsay, Corangamite, McMillan, Moreton, Stirling, Makin, Boothy, Sturt, (SA), Wakefeild and Bonner in the first 4 weeks. Mr Rudd has also visited the ’safe’ Coalition seats of Dickson, Leichardt, Ryan, Cook and McPherson.
With 2 weeks to go, the first 4 weeks have seen the on-the ground campaign of both leaders focussing on winning or holding those 16 marginal seats as a first target, with some contradictory visits [eg Howard in Griffith and Rudd in McPherson] aimed at keeping the other team guessing what they are up to.
This is not, however, rocket science. The last 2 weeks will see the real markers of where the on-the-ground ’secret’ polling is telling them and, therefore, which specific seats or States each is going to be instructed to ’shore up’ or ‘attack’ in the last 2 weeks. In Rudd’s shoes, I would focus on NSW and QLD in last 2 weeks, because seats in those States will win or lose this election for him.
Whatever is going to happen in SA, TAS, NT, WA and VIC will happen with our without Rudd’s presence: I think those states are pretty much ‘locked’ in now. The swinging numb nuts in Page, Paterson, Robertson, Wentworth, Bennelong, Cowper, and a host of QLD seats like Bowman, Leichardt, Petrie, Ryan, Flynn, Herbert, Hinkler and Longman will be of keen interest and concern for both sides at the on-the-ground level in the final 2 weeks, if these voters are not locked in by now- Election fatigue was present long before this election ‘officially’ began.
173 – Pancho – at Riverside Theatres? Any idea what time?
My problem with these tax cuts is that many Australians miss out and surely there must be a more equitable solution.
What affect would say a cut in the fuel excise or a lowering of the GST have on inflation, hence interest rates?
I know, this won’t happen, they will just fiddle with the edges.
That’s the problem with our political parties, they are stuck with the same old same and there is no reform or innovation.
Maybe there is room for a progressive alternative party?
Pretty sure it kicks off at 2. Awaiting some details at the moment…
Sinic @ 157
Actually that article by Malcolm Farr actually says that Howard and his ministers spent the day misinterpreting what Latham said, turning it around 180 degrees to suit their own critique of Rudd.
This is exactly what I said on this board yesterday, so it’s heartening to see the MSM eventually get it right, even if a day late! Of course they milk it for a day first and then spin it back the right way up. Hmm, two days of copy for the one ’story’.
169
What is the definition of MOE
You’ve got to hand Thommo the eternal optimist prize for poll interpretation..
Only a true believer could take comfort from a 44:56 result 2 weeks from an election where that result is exactly the same as every poll this year.
Whatever you are on, Thommo, save some for me. I want a kilo of it.
Here you go shaboh: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Margin_of_error (who says wikipedia is worthless?)
Spiros – a kilo of utter stupidity is far too much.
Maybe the AFP could do the same to the GG.
Rupert Murdoch’s News Corp has described as “totally outrageous” the storming of its Georgian television station Imedi by armed police, saying they caused “very extensive” damage.
http://www.theage.com.au/news/World/Georgian-police-attack-News-Corp-TV/2007/11/10/1194329548637.html
Thanks Pancho
I hjave learnt a lot todaY: msm & moe. I’m sure there will be other acronyns I will have to learn about in these blogs in the future.
Labor’s just announced a new health initiative to beat obesity:
http://i236.photobucket.com/albums/ff152/Kirribilli_Removals/specialk.jpg
Though Labor’s Primary did drop so did the LNP at the same time. If there was something really going on you would have seen a transfer of primary betweem ALP & LNP. So for Labor it just seems a sampling variation – votes going to Greens is as almost as voting for Labor. But it is alway reassuring to see that primary high – it probably still is.
BUT for the LNP as noted above, it could be the signaling of their peak. I hope so.
Anyway the gap remains a good 12% or 6% if you want to look at it like that. Howard still needs to get more than 520,000+ people to change their minds.
Like some others, I won’t fully believe it all until 25th Nov.
This could be even more significant than the ACN and Morgan Polls results!
Australia’s top social researcher, Hugh McKay, was interviewed at length by Helen Dowling on Skynews’ Election Report this morning. Mckay in the first week of the last election nailed the final result based on his long running focus groups picking up no mood for change in 2004.
The mood this year from McKay’s groups reveals growing dissatisfaction with the “direction” of our society (get stuffed Morgan Poll’s “soft Labor” myth) due to the following:
1. Workchoices, which did not immediately cause wide concern, has gradually created considerable anxiety not only among younger people new to the workforce, but among parents worried about their teenage children’s future work conditions, even if the children are University graduates.
2. The redistribution of wealth from the bottom 20% of whole family incomes (only $22,000 per year now) to the top 20% of whole family incomes has increasingly created an American type of working poor. McKay says this is something he had never expected to see in Australia, and he agrees with Aussie Home Loans’ John Simons that interest rate rises have hit those in bottom 20% with mortgages extremely hard.
3. Those who are doing extremely well in Australia’s robust economy have developed a feeling of “entitlement” that they deserve their wealthy lifestyles no matter how much the bottom 20% have to struggle as a consequence.
4. Related issues such as climate change and education have become more important. One of the reasons McKay gives is that his research indicates the Baby Boomers are returning more to their idealistic values which made them the iconoclastic generation of the 1960’s (on equality for women especially).
All this year, I haven’t allowed myself to believe that Rudd Labor could get the 16 marginal seats needed to win the House even if Labor won 52-53% of the 2 PP national vote (Beazley ‘98 revisited). After listening to McKay, my mood has changed from slightly pessimistic to slightly optimistic.
Labor = snivelling posters like will who have no sense of humour or personality
Liberal = great people like Tabitha and me
Excellant report Hemingway. Hopefully the MSM will not show the biasness as in previous elections and allow the people to hear both sides. I get the feeling Skynews is biased in its reporting but at least they show entire doorstops which show the panic & fear campaign displayed by the Liberals. It’s just that they interpret it differently to the way I see it.
Maybe I am the one out of step???
kina at post 50 says: “Together (the polls) seem to show the Liberal primary tailing off – There is a little hint here that three weeks into the campaign we have reached ‘peak’ Liberal party primary. They got a little boost when the election was called and nothing else.”
I think that’s right. There’s no joy here for the Conservatives.
You’ve heard about “Peak Oil”, well meet “Peak Liberal”.
Despite the best efforts of the Industry (the GG et al), exploration over the last 4 weeks has produced nada in the way of additional new Tory deposits. They’ll no doubt keep feverishly drilling, perhaps going-over the Hanson Redneck-1 field again to get at the dregs, but I fear the jig is up.
Come the 24th, a switch to alternative fuel, Labor, is now inevitable.
Ave it 07
Liberal = Howard walking away from an injured person
Labor = Rudd saying he will take responsibility
Labor = lol
Liberal = great leadership for Australia
Thanks, Shaboh.
Good call on Skynews. Must keep in mind that all their bogus “polls” like today’s on the fairness test always come in with 60% to the Coalition side of issue and 40% to the Labor side, so they are preaching to the converted. Seems like a poor business plan to write off 40% of your demographic, but hey, Murdoch can afford this just as he does with Dennis Shanahan and his mates in “The Australian”.
However, Helen Dowling has been rock solid credible and fair throughout the campaign unlike their “Top Gun” political analyst, David Speers, who called the Leaders’ debate as Rudd winning by a “whisker” after letting Howard hog 60% of the time allowed, and he regularly serves up Dorothy Dixers to the Coalition pollies or their surrogates. Speers has trashed his own credibility, if he ever had any.
Where’s will and Lord Doughnut?
Evan at 190, “You’ve heard about “Peak Oil”, well meet “Peak Liberal”.”
Not quite yet.
For Howard’s last cartridge, he needs to fashion something that many will feel forced to vote for, just on account of their particular circumstances. Even though they will be holding their noses as they fill in the ballot.
Tax deductibility of private school fees might do it. Not unlimited deductions, but enough to cover the fees charged at the lower end of the scale – the fees paid by the swinging demographic.
188, 191, 192, DO WE HAVE TO GO THROUGH SH*T EVERY DAY?
193 Hemingway
Whatever credibility David Speers was trying to build as some kind of political analyst or political journalist never got off the ground.
Just like Shanahan, he is an unapologetic spin doctor the Liberal Party and has never been anything else.
Clearly SKYNEWS and The Australian are being dominated and editorialised and directed and controlled by those with a blue-vein interest in the election outcome: even my totally disinterested better-half noted about Speers “Oh my God, who is he bending over for these days”.
196 – do you live under Gordon Brown too? LOL
Howard is campaign launching in QLD- which launch will this one be ? See my notes @174 for reasons why he is ‘launching’ in QLD.
I can’t believe Howard is trying the “who do you trust line again” what a LIAR he is, Liberals are good at slogans and nothing else.
We won’t know Howards policies policies for the future unless he is re-elected, because that is how he operates, lies to get in and then says he has a mandate to do whatever he likes.
I will be doing my little bit to make sure this elected lying Dictator is not re-elected, all the Liberal members are gutless, not one of them has the guts to stand up to their Dictator.
Just checked Centrebet,
Tasmania, All odds for the ALP.
Bass $1.17
Braddon $1.17
Denison $1.005
Franklin $1.12
Lyons $1.12
A 5-0 whitewash 1.30 ALP. Ummm I thought that one of the Tassie seats was meant to be line ball???
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