The Age has published the third of ACNielsen’s online polls, which are taken from a representative sample of around 1400 volunteer market research subjects. It shows Labor leading 56-44 on two-party preferred, the same result as the previous such survey a fortnight ago. However, Labor’s primary vote is down two points to 45 per cent, with the Coalition also down a point to 40 per cent. John Howard has picked up three points on the preferred leader question directly at the expense of Kevin Rudd, whose lead is now 50 per cent to 42 per cent.
Reflections on the Miracle of Democracy at Work in the Greatest Nation on Earth
ACNielsen online poll: 56-44
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201 – its all about the wasting of money on Labor
Labor look good in the polls
Liberal look good in the votes
If this has been noted previously, I’m sorry (but NOT an apology!):
From the Yahoo7 News site:
| AAP | Photos
Saturday November 10, 05:54 AM
Online poll shows Rudd is preferred PM
The latest Herald/Nielsen online poll has found that in a direct match-up, ALP leader Kevin Rudd is the preferred prime minister.
Mr Rudd received 50 per cent of the online vote, with Prime Minister John Howard on 42 per cent.
When they are pitted against other senior members of their respective teams, they are still clearly the most popular choices.
The poll of 1,428 voters found 36 per cent preferred Mr Rudd, which was down four points from the last online poll a month ago, while 31 per cent backed Mr Howard, up two points.
Mr Costello, who will become prime minister sometime in the next term if the coalition is re-elected, rated only four per cent.
Mr Rudd’s deputy Julia Gilliard rated seven per cent as preferred PM.
AAP
Hey, Costello’s big, fat 4 % should make him all the more cocky this weekend.
There once was a bennelong dwarf
Who struck down a young lass as he walked
“I’m not sorry! Twas not I!”,
snorted he, “Pigs might fly!”
as he flung several barrels of pork
came to overnight. better late than never!
Umm Ave it 07, (202) not quite sure about that.
Mentioned here about a week ago that there were ALP seats in Vic that was paying $1.14, it dropped in one day to $1.08, someone can count.
We’ve heard a lot about celebrity candidates (Please don’t go there again!!) but in the US, celebrity endorsements are very highly reported, although some are undoubtedly counter-productive. I’ve heard Cate Blanchett, God love her, slam the Rodent recently. Will this become a feature of elections to come given the way we increasingly follow the US and have there been other celebrity endorsements?
Does anyone know whether these types of polls have been done in previous elections?
Bluebottle mentions a report in the CM:
“indicating that John Howard has taken a ’save the silverware’ approach to his seat visits and on the ground campaigning.”
I suspect that this may actually be a reflection of the strategy being used by the Libs in many of their “vulnerable” seats, rather than any indication of the ones they think are “saveable”.
Here in McEwen, Howard Government Minister, Fran Bailey, is going out of her way to avoid indicating any connection with the Liberal Party or John Howard. Mail outs and posters , for the most part, highlight her name and supposed local contributions, not her party associations. In previous elections we would always receive mail bearing both her own and Howard’s photos, with the phrase “Howard Liberal Government” appearing prominently and repeatedly. This time round there is no mention of Howard or Liberal at all on most of them.
The only exception I’ve seen so far involved an item of “senior citizen” mail to my old age pensioner mother. In this case it seems “Liberal” and “Howard” apparently is still meant to be of marketing value. (In mum’s case it is seriously mis-targeted – she has never voted Lib in her life).
But on everything else Bailey seems to be trying to portray herself as a greenish, community based, independent with no Johnny H or party connections. The last time I saw this sort of strategy used was by some Labor candidates when Keating was unpopular with the electorate.
I think the conclusion is clear. “John Howard” and “Liberal” are now seen as sufficiently “on the nose” as brand names to lose more votes than they win in electorates like McEwen. Howard isn’t visiting such places because the local candidates don’t want him there, especially if they already have a reasonably high profile themselves. I’m sure the last thing someone like Turnbull would want would be Howard’s entourage traipsing through the local shopping centres, knocking over the voters!
Rudd, on the other hand, has sufficiently high ratings to make him a potential vote winner. Accordingly , he can pretty much go where he wants.
Two weeks to go to you make your choice
You know you will be voting Coalition
Movements in Vic in last week (centrebet)
Seat,…………….Swing required%/4th…Now
Corrangamite 5.3 2.10 1.95
Deakin 5 2.00 2.00
Latrobe 5.8 1.90 1.90
McEwan 6.4 2.30 2.30
McMillan 5 2.00 1.95.
Only valid conclusion, no sign of ‘Narrowing’
Glen @ 105
I think you are a yank because you speak yank, aka septic – “I’d be pissed having to vote …”
In Australia, one is “pissed OFF” about something. A lonesome “pissed” without “off” means drunk. Do you vote while drunk?
Signed
Speech police
@209 Ave it all
You can do what you like in that booth….but please mop up after yourself.
The rest of us have quiet determination to remove the stain from office.
211 – ‘Do you vote while drunk’ – is that Labor supporters?
Centrebet Continued, (without figures) Will do if anyone is really bored.
Qld is really interesting a shortening of 11 of the closest 12 seats to ALP.
Again only valid conclusion, No Narrowing
Mr 4%
sad isn’t it.
Just on the validity of online polls — I know they weight for gender, age — but how do they correct for the fact that online Australians who like to participate in surveys are different in socio-economic terms from non-online Australians?
For example, I would think they would be undersampling those on low-incomes. Wouldn’t that significantly bias the results?
We like links to articles pasted here too….
I agree with Bryan @ 163. Actually I think, going by polling in the 2004 election, ACN may well be more important than Newspoll in terms of accuracy. This far out from the 2004 Election, ACN had the result as 52-48 for the Coalition compared with Newspoll which had the result as 47.5-52.5 for the Coalition.
Ave it 07 et al, you are serving a valid function of continuing to focus the minds of ALP supporters and maintain the rage. Keep it up till 24.11.07 commrade!!!
Oiii! Kwiw pundit.
{the result as 52-48 for the Coalition compared with Newspoll which had the result as 47.5-52.5 for the Coalition.}
?
You mean both polls favoured the coalition @ 52.5 and 52-47????? or what?
Bryan @ 163 The idea of a longitudinal study is excellent. Why hasn’t it been done before?
219 – keep enjoying the feeling.
Its all about the free democratic power of speech gained by Liberals:
Super liberals we are good
Labor = QPR
Centrebet last
NSW nearest five, all closing except Wentworth(Static)
SA nearest 4 all closing except Boothby(Why didn’t they find a ex union thug who would at least be able to stand and talk at the same time) Even Boothby is static
No narrowing (Finished now)
A few things:
I agree with the comment earlier that Latham’s re-emergence (to the lmited extent it is relevant at all) can only be a slight positive for Rudd. If this was the AFR’s “story that Rudd wasn’t going to like” then someone is kidding themselves.
Where are we at with the polls:
Basically the best the Libs have had all year is 47 TPP, and their average this year is about 44. The only thing is that they have now had a few (is it three or four) 46s or 47s during the campaign proper. So there is some (slight) evidence for a “narrowing”. But this would only be the sort of narrowing that means Labor wins 80-90 seats instead of 90-100. Hardly what JWH is looking for, even if you believe that it is narrowing.
Unless the Libs get at least one poll of 48 TPP or better before the big day, they must be heading for the big drop.
A couple of other thoughts:
Notwithstanding ACN’s careful stratification, I would never trust an on-line poll in absolute terms. The sample must be self-selecting in a material way, I would have thought. However there’s no particular reason to disregard the trend (ie no change), which is good news for Labor.
The Morgan 62-38 – this is a truly bizarre result. They’ll be geniuses (and history will be re-written in other ways) if it turns out to be anywhere near prescient. But I doubt it.
Oops I meant 52.5-47.5 to Labor for Newspoll this far out from the 2004 election. But the ACN poll at the time did have it 52-48 for the Coalition. Well spotted Gerr!
The seat of Dobell is going OFFF, check out these number,(I had to check and still quite don’t believe it)
Liberal Marginal 4.8%.
ALP Paying 1.20 Libs 4.00 on Centrebet… Eden Monaro is wider. What has happened in Dobell, ?? To the various Lib supporters out there here is your chance for a killing?
Anyone got any more to add on that “rumour” flagged earlier that the ACN phone poll is going to show 55-45?
Dyno
Surely the libs would require more than one 48 TPP – that’s rock bottom. Slim hope, I’d say …
Ruddster’s campaign = in the box seat
Rodent’s campaign = in the dog-box
Gidday Kiwipundit
How’s the New Zealand Herald behaving these days? (It’s my old paper in another life).
Very slim in reality Derek, I agree. But they’d spin it to the party faithful as a trend, so the people doing HTVs and so on don’t lose (too much) heart.
Good work Follow the P. We can all read polls and interpret statistics.
But the betting – where people and experts put their money where their mouth is and where the bookies are in the business of getting it right – is the strongest indicator of all.
http://www.theage.com.au/news/opinion/shaun-carney/2007/11/09/1194329510061.html?page=fullpage#contentSwap1
Good article and cartoon.
Kiwipundit, it looks like there’s a HUGE movement back to Labour in NZ. A Morgan poll has Labour up to 40.5%, with the NZ Tories at 45%. That Labour vote is up about 10% in a month!!
Wonder if the Libs will expand on this for us at their campaign launch. Looks like a real winner for the coalition this one. Right up there with ads on ‘who do you trust to keep interest rates low?’
“Legislation outlining the framework for a nuclear power industry will be introduced over the next term of government if the coalition is re-elected, Prime Minister John Howard says.
The federal government has outlined its intention to establish a nuclear power industry in Australia.
Prime Minister John Howard said it was unlikely the nuclear legislation would be ready before the federal election.
“The legislation isn’t quite ready and whether it gets passed this year or next year depends on the timing of the election and the will of the people,” Mr Howard told Southern Cross Broadcasting.”
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/news/national/howard-promises-nuclear-power-for-australia/2
Gidday Derek,
It’s pretty quiet at the moment, although earlier this year there was (rightly) plenty of criticism of the APN’s (the Herald’s owners) decision to contract out the sub-editing function to somewhere like Malaysia where wages are lower of course.
Anyway, here’s this morning’s Herald:
http://www.nzherald.co.nz
Dyno, someone earlier said AC Neilson had a data base of 80 to 90,000 people which they sampled to reflect the Australian demographic, then phoned a sample. Obviously, they could not get it absolutely right, but the result is roughly where many of the polls are.
Dyno
Yep. It will be interesting on the big day to observe the libs handing out … skeleton crew I’d say. I handed out for years in La Trobe and the lib performance was pathetic … no depth. Snooty Liberal ladies plastered with tonnes of make-up who clearly wanted to be somewhere else. Makes me shudder to think of it …
Lord D,
I don’t know about a huge swing to Labour – there are still some recent polls (eg. the one in the Herald a week or two ago) still showing Labour trailing National by double digits. But the Morgan poll is encouraging. I note that the poll was taken before last Saturday when Clark made the announcement that Labour will be offering tax cuts next year. That should certainly boost Labour further.
NSW Nurses have launched advertising I haven’t seen before – granny with a walker calling for a nurse in a darkened empty hospital.
Will 2 weeks of Health ads result in ‘The Widening’(TM)?
If Pancho’s still on – any word on where the Arts policy announcement is being made today?
As near as I can make out, in the 18 months since May 2006 there have been 38 Newspolls, 77 Morgan face-to-faces, 15 AC Nielsens and a gaggle of Galaxies… about 140 national opinion polls in all… give or take a poll or two.
Total number of people interviewed: in the order of 150,000.
Total number of polls (of any type) won by the government: 2/140 (the last one, a Newspoll in August 2006, 15 months ago; before that, June 2006).
Running average of polls 2 weeks out from the election(and for the past 11 months): 56/44 2PP Labor’s way.
Question: Why is anyone even discussing the possibility of Howard winning this election?
what are peoples plans for election night?
Kiwipundit
Thanks. Are you serious – subbing off-shore? That’s crazy! Are you in the business, if you don’t mind me asking …
235 The link to Howard’s words of wisdom seemed a bit out of touch but for historians who want to know why the Libs were on the nose in the 2007 election, talk like this is a part of the reason.
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/news/national/howard-promises-nuclear-power-for-australia/2007/09/28/1190486524376.html
Totally agree BB (242)
And what makes it even harder for the Govt is the REASONS voters have swung to Labor.
1. Workchoices
2. Which is the party which will best handle issues Australia faces in the future.
In which case itis hard (no – almost impossible) to see how the Libs can get back by banging on about their past “record”.
Actually, I don’t know what they can do. And it seems neither do they.
Sorry (apologies) all, but based on the recommendation of an earlier poster, I sent the following set of suggestions to Christen Tilley’s fallen-woman-in-Penrith-shopping-centre caption competition at A waste of my time
Needless to say, none of my proposals got passed the moderator. (And before anyone has any unkind thoughts, I do not for a moment ignore the possibility that said moderator simply judged my ‘work’ to be dull, facile, irrelevant or unfunny – much like Christopher Pyne, but that’s another topic.)
Okay, so for posterity (and also to highlight the possibility of ABC ’sensitivity’), here they are:
“Now that’s a recession you didn’t need to have, eh!”
or
“That’ll learn you for sneaking around behind my back. You’re just like Malcom.”
or
“How about a cup of tea, a bex and a good lie down?”
or
“Somebody call a doctor. Are you insured luv?”
or
“It was my last resort. All my other inducements have fallen flat.”
or
“Get up and take some mutual responsibility for your life!”
or
“You don’t fool me with this ‘victim routine’.”
or
“Well, I was suspicious. You don’t look like you belong to a working family. Forgive me for asking, but are you single, gay, non-Christian, a purveyor of secular humanist cant? If so, please stay where you are until I’ve left the shopping centre.”
From the article in The Age
They cut out the bit when he started hissing and muttering “precious, My precious”.
Alas, such news get little coverage.
Hundreds of Canberra public servants helped prepare seat-by-seat “cheat sheets” that the Coalition has been using to plan its political advertising.
http://canberratimes.com.au/news/local/general/ps-used-in-cheat-sheets-for-govt/1084013.html
Re the caption competition. What about “Foul labor-voting demons which have infested this good woman – BE GONE!!”
Bushfire Bill: Cause we are all afraid….
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