The Age has published the third of ACNielsen’s online polls, which are taken from a representative sample of around 1400 volunteer market research subjects. It shows Labor leading 56-44 on two-party preferred, the same result as the previous such survey a fortnight ago. However, Labor’s primary vote is down two points to 45 per cent, with the Coalition also down a point to 40 per cent. John Howard has picked up three points on the preferred leader question directly at the expense of Kevin Rudd, whose lead is now 50 per cent to 42 per cent.
Reflections on the Miracle of Democracy at Work in the Greatest Nation on Earth
ACNielsen online poll: 56-44
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574 Comments
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Just Saying @ 291, do you have the hard copy? Apparently there’s an article on the Max factor in Bennelong but I can’t find it on-line.
Derek – plans are to work all day on various booths – unfortunately in safe WA seat (Curtin) – and then sink a few in the evening. Hopefully we will know the result before we knock off at 6 – 8pm AEDT.
PJK,
unlucky mate, I’m gonna be wearing my Kevin07 shirt proudly at a Cowan booth.
Victory party at the Macedonian Club in Stirling afterwards I heard
tabitha
please return to the clinic
we need you
ps your medication has been upped ….promise its not bindeeez again
#302 Yes I do have the hard copy and The Max Factor is a quite good read – fairly balanced look at the seat with views from both sides. Suggests many but by no means all Chinese are leaning to Maxine but points out Howard also has his Chinese fans.
Quotes Galaxy Research’s David Briggs saying first time voters are more likely to vote Labor and his organisation’s recent polls show a firm win to Maxine McKew. Then quotes Peter Brent being more cautious, saying he is unsure about the pulling power or efficacy of star recruits and that the predicted swing is somewhat tainted by the presence of the Not Happy John brigade last time.
Also quotes Possum Comitatus at the end: “But either way [this time] an ALP member will be representing Benelong after the 2010 election. The slowly changing demographics of the seat are just too powerful.”
Mr. Squiggle, noone is blaming the state government for police corruption. Hell, the OPI is doing its job beautifully. If anything it is justifying the setting up of such a body.
Tabs, please recite your faux-feminist line to any of the following ALP frontbenchers and ex-frontbenchers:
Julia Gillard (Deputy Leader)
Jenny Macklin (former Deputy Leader, now junior frontbencher)
Penny Wong
Nicola Roxon
Tanya Plibersiek (all above are current frontbenchers)
Carmen Lawrence
Susan Ryan
and a number of others….certainly I don’t remember seeing a Liberal deputy leader, or Health Minister……or any senior (Cabinet) Ministry. Go home, you troll.
did you hear about helena rubenstein
max factor
Mathew Cole 307
Totally agree with you, Labor has good female representation compared to the Lib on the more important portfolios of government.
I also agree with you that Tabs should go home and read some books and educate herself better, so she can add some value to debate.
I read this PB regularly but dont contribute to it often, but one thing I can say is this, Glen is a stinkin’ tory but seems to have a grasp of some issues, therefore a worth enemy, but Tabitha just speaks nonsense most of the time and constantly adds those stupid ‘ Labor is this… Liberal is this’ comments. I can’t stand her contribution.
Anyhow, gotta go and do some gardening cos it is a great 30 degree day in perth today.
PJK
All the best. Don’t be scared. Look ‘em in the eye and be proud to declare yourself Labor. I don’t envy your task. Been there, it’s hard. Open face, be helpful to those dithering … be strong. Wear a clean shirt. Again – all the best!
Mr Squiggle @ 296
The person a the centre of this story, Paul Mullett, is a known Liberal supporter and was tipped to be a candidate for the party at some stage.
I don’t think this story will help the liberals, I don’t think it will help labor either. It is seen as a local issue. That doesn’t mean the Media wouldn’t be pushing the national angle if he was a labor supporter, seeing as he is the head of the Police Union in Victoria.
The correct way, I think, is to do this:
bold,
not [b]bold[/b]
Which is to say
text, leaving out the spaces.
Viscous article by Michael Gawenda in today’s Saturday Age about vacuous and pathetic Howard, he dont hold back, I dont think its online, but worth a look…ohhhh.
Also just found The Latham Diaries in the op shop, bought it, opened up to what went wrong in 2004,
he said letting the Lib advertising go unchallenged, he said it could have been prevented (somewhat) by earnest quick and ferocious rebuttals abd cites Bill Clinton advocating same in his memiors.
SO the lesson here is
Everytime Howard says interest rates, say interest rates will be ok under labor,
everytime Howard says employment, (which he is) say Labour is about Jons growth,
I eblieve its just called counter attacking and being mobile (like Manstien on the eastern front after stalingrad
) and rebutting ALL the government attacks
If labor believes it can let them go to the keeper unchallenged it just creates doubt in ppls minds.
All people need to be brought back is reassurance and Labour addressing every issue.
The policies do not speak for themselves.
Spin must be unspun. Rudd must take the economic fight right up to the government to neutralize it otherwise Rudd might lose. Damn what the polls say.
Hope youre taking notes Kevin…..
PS, this close to the 2004 election Labour was at least 3 % in 2pp behind.
Whoops. Ue the brackets, not the [ and ] brackets.
For Jon’s growth above read Jobs growth.
Rudd calls for ‘trench warfare’ on IR
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22735135-12377,00.html
Now for the start of the real campaign
Derek Corbett, try 3 mobile, its usb modem works fine with my MacBook.
And at $39 a month including the modem and 1GB downloads, its considerably cheaper than Telstra.
bolditalicssubscriptheading and
Where are all the Labor Ads?
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22707612-28737,00.html
‘All we want is the Truth’ says a headline in The Australian.
Ironic aint it……
@ AM
What do you mean?
I just saw a clip on sky news about age break down and swings
They say that the swing for 40-54 age group is 10.7% to Labor, 9.4% for 18-24 and 7.4% for 55+. I think it is from this online poll but I’m not sure. They said there was also a swing on in the 25-39 group
How the hell are the Lib sympathisers trying to spin this election as anything less than a vaporisation for the Libs?
Scratching my head people……
I don’t watch much commercial TV so I haven’t seen many Labor ads. I was a bit worried because all I’d seen were the Liberal “union boss” ads, I thought, uncontested. Then I saw a bit of daytime TV the other day. There were some quite good Labor, ACTU and NSW Nurses Assoc ads every break. I particularly liked the Nurses Assoc ad with the little old lady on a walker hobbling out of a darkened ward into a darkened hospital corridor calling for a nurse. The caption read something like “how many less nurses will there be under Workchoices?”
I felt a bit better.
I tell you what if AM means the blanket Lib ads on tv (wall to wall) they may have a point.
If Labor doesn’t immensly counterattack it is in trouble. Damn the polls.
Gerr
Gawenda! Michael Gawenda! The same bloke who presided over the demise of The Age? That Gawenda?
Gawenda is a nonsense. He’s a flim-flam word factory. Subbed him for years (in the other life).
Mike is a main-chance man. If he’s come up with something, maybe it’s an indication of the wind direction …
IE. The election wont be won on UTUBE.
To bold type <b>your text</b>
Italics – <i>your text</i> or <em>text<em>
To display the < symbol type: & l t ; (without the spaces) and for > it’s & g t ; (again without spaces)
325/321: I too feel there haven’t been terribly many ads for Labor on TV, especially since there seem to be quite a few good ones on Youtube.
I thought they were super cashed up, but I’m not seeing it on TV ads.
324: I’ll believe it when I see Howard’s concession speech, until then, I will stay mildly nervous.
@327
Have to agree, but article is good for what it is.
He also rights scathing peices on Bush which are nothing but rehashes of US press.
Libs reckon they can’t see 16 seats falling and that the swing is locked up in safe ALP and safe Lib seats. That’s why their running the hoons, cops and potholes campaign in the marginals. It’s beyond cynicism but who knows? What’s the line about never underestimating the intelligence of the electorate?
Latham diaries writes that in 2004 Labor left all until last week but then the Lib ads had broekn thru as they had been blanket for 2-3 weeks. Hope Labor is not repeating history.
Again I hope you are taking notes Labor party man monitoring this site….whoever you are ….probably Glen.
Darn
<em>text<em> should be: <em>text</em>
Gerr,
Where I live which is a marginal NSW seat there are plenty of Lib/National ads, but hardly any Labor ads to counter them. Is Labor getting complacent? they still neeed to spend there money on ads, to counter the propaganda.
bolditalics
now is the time for all good men and women to come to the celebration party on 24 November
Note: no spaces between the symbols.
Thanks AM
It’s a worry. Hoep they’re not misjudging thia again. Or overestimating the electorate.
Damien 332, which Libs, where? Do some research at possums pollytics, learn basic arithmetic, then post. Otherwise you might just look like a bit of dill.
cheers,
Alan H
I’ve just had quick trawl through comments (so there may be some) but I haven’t seen anything on (a) Why Morgan chose to “bury” the f2f in Finding #4237 on the phone poll instead of reporting it separately, and (b) Why the f2f result is not shown in the graph contained in the finding. Has he commented at all?
I saw Labor ads last night and fewer Liberal ads.
Alan, I work with a couple of connected coalition types. I agree with you (he says, pulling arrow from hat) just reporting what they are saying to me.
“.. until then, I will stay mildly nervous”.
Off on a tangent, prepare yourself for the major downer of missing this permanently mildly nervous state. That will be a big funk. No frissons of excitement at some encouraging news, no ravages of unreasoning doubt when a poll narrows by a point or two.
Enjoy the moment. Once it’s over and Rudd slowly over time begins to irritate as PM with his endless referring tough decisions to committee and his all-too middle of the road safety in everything he does and says, this will but a distant slightly hard-to-understand memory.
Just think about this for a second. All of the ads, all of the media exposure and all of the spin has been coming from the right during he campaig so far, and they trail miserably. Just imagine how much of an annihilation it will turn into once both sides share equal billing in the last two weeks. There will be two major parties after the election, Labor & the Greens!
PJK for Prez @ 2:14pm.
I feel your pain, bro. I’ve got an all day gig handing out ALP HTVs at a Wagga Riverina booth – deep in ultra safe Nats country.
I hope I have the last laugh.
Just started reading a biography of an Ethiopian dictator. It begins:
“It was a small dog, a Japanese breed. His name was Lulu. He was allowed to sleep in the Emperor’s great bed. During various ceremonies, he would run away from the Emperor’s lap and pee on dignitaries’ shoes. The august gentlemen were not allowed to flinch or make the slightest gesture when they felt their feet getting wet. I had to walk among the dignitaries and wipe the urine from their shoes with a satin cloth. This was my job for ten years.”
That’s gotta be written by Cossie with Janette the dog!
Maybe I should write to my local Labor mp and tell him of the danger he and his colleagues face if they don’t pull their finger out….
They also tell me they think they’ll lose about 12 and may gain two, one in WA can’t remember where the other hopeful (for them) is.
Does this work too322
Gerr Says:
November 10th, 2007 at 2:57 pm
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22707612-28737,00.html
‘All we want is the Truth’ says a headline in The Australian.
..
Yet another argument for getting rid of this discredited and degenerate government, Gerr – Thanks for pointing it out.
Some of you people are unbelievable. For heaven sake have a look at what’s going on around you and stop the fretting. Labor is in a strong position and has plenty to run with. Sheeh
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