The Age has published the third of ACNielsen’s online polls, which are taken from a representative sample of around 1400 volunteer market research subjects. It shows Labor leading 56-44 on two-party preferred, the same result as the previous such survey a fortnight ago. However, Labor’s primary vote is down two points to 45 per cent, with the Coalition also down a point to 40 per cent. John Howard has picked up three points on the preferred leader question directly at the expense of Kevin Rudd, whose lead is now 50 per cent to 42 per cent.
Reflections on the Miracle of Democracy at Work in the Greatest Nation on Earth
ACNielsen online poll: 56-44
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574 Comments
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Yeah. Couldn’t have been anything Latham did that was wrong, so it must have been the ads. Afterall we all know Latham was a genius who was incapable of doing anything wrong.
Damien J #346,
Both of the LNP hopefuls (Cowan and Swan) are in WA.
Graham Edwards in Cowan held on by 0.8% in 2004, and is retiring this year.
Kim Wilkie in Swan just barely survived with 0.1% in Swan, and polling done by the West Australian puts him under threat.
Rudd and the ALP need to get their collective thumbs out of their backsides, and flood the airwaves with ads. Host local events. Get name recognition for their candidates. Give people a reason to vote for them. Generally act like a strong opposition. And, above all, destroy the many and varied furphies put forward by Howard and his spin-merchants.
Now, can I raise something. On 774 in melbourne (I believe on Thursday), Bill Shorten talked about “modern labor”. Rudd on Lateline discussed being a labor “moderniser”.
Anyone know if this is a theme that we will see at the campaign launch?
I see Lucy the sheep has been arrested by the AFP trying to get into a Howard campaign event. A journo trying to find out if she was OK was also threatened with arrest.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22734851-12377,00.html
Thanks Gary. I feel like Richard Attenbrough in one of those old B/W British war films – sweat beading on the brow until Trevor Howard or Jack Hawkins tells me “pull youself together, man!”
Every time a Labor politican uses the phrase “a Rudd Labor government”..
it comes out sounding like
“A Rod Laver government.”
Really. Next time, have a close listen. No bad thing I suppose but he’s a bit old.
“Not here, Wilhelmina …!”
“Don’t cry for me, Wilhelmina …”
S @ 320
Ta for that. I have a iBook G4. Because I’m on the road, I have to use wireless. My work takes me to all sorts of places around Australia. Sadly, Telstra is the only option. It’s simply a question of coverage.
Telstra’s modem does not work with my Mac laptop. They tried a patch, but it will not work and never will because my Mac, apparently, employs out-of-date Motorola circuits. Er. So, I purchased this refurbished Dell thingy. It has lots of buttons.
Plan for election night?
It was an ONLINE poll though, there is no reason not to believe that most people who read The Age are lefties anyway. If fact I’m surprised that the result is so close given the readership.
You seem to think advertising is the magic elixir. I’m sure it helps to a small degree but think of this. Which party has, in the last few months, spent your and my money (35 odd million dollars) telling us how good they’ve been and how good their IR policy is for Australia? What effect did that have on the polls.
The anti IR mood is well and truly out there. Labor will massage this mood with its advertising. STOP FRETTING.
Damian 346, of course your libs tell of a lib win. This is important for morale. The problem of course is that it has no bearing to the polling reality. Once the Rudd honeymoon is over and strippergate and burkegate and earwaxgate and the election is called and ONLY then will the polls narrow and deliver victory. Lala land is very cute don’t you think?
Is this a psephology forum or a friggen html worshop? (I’m appreciating the tips though.)
Like lots of you, I’m so nervous – the disappointments of the past haunt. But I was considerably cheered up when listening to Geraldine Doogue’s breakfast program on Radio National today. She has been following one family with 4 family members ( 3 siblings and one from next generation, child of another sibling) having different political outlooks. The one (country male) who is rusted on liberal said that it’s all over, he can’t bear to listen to the radio any more or read the newspapers about the elections – it’s all just too depressing for him. He says the polls are always pretty correct. The city female was going to vote Labor in both houses, but thinks she will vote Green in the Senate now. The 18 year old still intends to vote for Tony Windsor but Rudd is increasingly impressing her and her friends. The apolitical one, who voted Liberal last time, can’t bear Rudd, and thinks he probably will go with Howard. He says he can’t see Labor winning – all the people he talks to will not vote Labor.
4 votes – no change in 2 weeks. I know it is only anecdotal, but it does give comfort!
Gary #359,
I will stop fretting when either of two events occurs:
1. The ALP starts taking the rhetorical fight to Howard, instead of letting him spruik himself on his own terms; or
2. Nov 25 dawns, and the election is over.
Also Gary,
Yes, I appreciate the probability that the ALP is applying The Art of War to this campaign, but if you go out into the general electorate, you will find that less than 10% have even heard of The Art of War, or The 36 Strategies.
Perception often counts for more than reality in politics, and the perception is that the ALP is letting Howard own the economic battlefield, when in reality he shouldn’t.
Jon @ 353
Seems our PM only plays Dr Doolittle with economic management. (Poor Lucy.)
Now here are some of Dr Dolittle’s best animal friends (according to Wikipedia): Dab-Dab (a duck), Chee-Chee (a monkey) and Too-Too (an owl).
Or should that be Me-Too? Anyway, I think the monkey is Abbott.
Thanks for the reassurance but it doesn’t help. I’m going outside to plant some pumpkins.
I was fully expecting ALP advertising to start today. Watching the cricket not one ad. Where are our No Nuclear Power ads, IR ads and Global Warming Ads?
By the time the pumpkins are ripe for the pickin’ you’ll be sick of the sight and sounds of PM Rudd.
Mathew Cole 351
I went to Kingsway Branch AGM about 7 weeks ago and had a chat to Graham Edwards and he was under belieft that Cowan was tight, but now after many internal polls, Cowan is looking like an easy hold for Liz Prime. Also, I live in Cowan and I can tell you now, I know a large amount of people who voted Libs last election in Cowan are voting for Liz/Rudd now… Most of them seem to be in their early 40s with teenage kids (obviously House Affordablity for the kids is a concern).
Don’t worry my sources in Cowan say the internal polling in WA is as follows
Gains – Hasluck
Holds – Swan, Cowan (increased majorities)
Too Close to call – Stirling, Brand (suprisingly), Kalgoorlie
In play – Moore (suprisingly), Forrest (suprising) & Canning
Matt and Damien, get a reality grip. The Alp is at least as good a position as Libs in 1996. These are situations that are rare. Instead of fretting enjoy the moment in history for as long as it lasts. The art of war teaches us that if you are in a strong position play weak. Alp will scrape in by 1 seat 30 seats. Who cares. A win is a win is a win!
MayoFeral
Ah, brings it all back … the em space and the en space … the em ruler … linotype .. thems were the days … hot metal.
What’s your idea for election night?
367 Chris B I posted this before I saw the others on this page. I’ve also sent a copy to the Vic ALP.
Yeah I don’t watch telly at all. You can’t tell me the ALP don’t have any ads up can you? Please tell me they do.
MayoFeral
Ah, brings it all back … the em and the en … the em ruler … linotype .. thems were the days … hot metal.
What’s your idea for election night?
What we probably were aware of – the Howard Government has and, plans the continual destruction of democracy. This government is extremely scary – it thinks it is right to cancel freedom of speech and information.
Dazzamack your scenario was the best case for the ALP in WA.
Worst case is:
Stirling and Hasluck held.
Cowan and Swan gains for the tories.
Brand with reduced majority.
Both of our scenarios are possible, we just won’t know till the 24th. Anything can happen out west.
Though even in your scenario Keenan has a better chance of holding Stirling than Henry has at holding Hasluck if the chips were down for the Tories.
358: I pity you, I could never go back to Windows after my 12 months of Mac. And to think I used to tease Mac users.
Despite its expense – Next G has amazing coverage.
Election night is my son’s first birthday – so it will be my parents and my wife over I think. Hopefully my parents are voting Labor, otherwise it could be a fairly uncomfortable night
One of the best ads is the No Nuclear Power plants in Victoria, its on You Tube but hasn’t been shown on TV.
Election night for me will be TV, drinking, yelling (at the TV), drinking, eating, drinking, crying….then drinking etc etc
Matthew Cole 351
Where is this polling that suggests that Swan is under threat?
This is the best weekend for the start of the campaign, and I have seen none in Victoria. They can’t say the cricket was booked out, because they were granted an extra minute per hour advertising time in the election. I am starting to get annoyed.
also 367, rudd has taken it right up to howard on the economy whereas latham labor ran a mile. Even so there is only so much oxygen in this. The last 2 weeks will not be dominated by economics but by education health climate change and IR. And finally howard is the big issue in 2007 and he is a big liability for the libs. Fascinating 2 weeks to go.
373 John Hunt Is A Coward. If that’s all they win by then they have run a really BAD campaign!!!!
Dr Good #383,
You will find it at Adam Carr’s site, under the “Swan” seat description.
JHIAC #373,
It is not at all like 1996. There are two crucial differences:
1. While there’s a lot of anger at the incumbent, it’s concentrated among a relatively small number of people – no baseball bats out there.
2. More importantly, the incumbent isn’t facing a hostile media, the way Keating had to in 1996. Instead, Howard enjoys the servility of the media outlets of the nation.
386 if they lose it is a disaster. If they win by 1 it is sweet but a little bitter
387 I agree to a point but the difference is: no offence mr Howard but you are out of touch
Glen 379
Yes, we won’t know until election night, but internal polling is relevant and can be taken as a guide of what may happen, but I do feel that at last WA has started to swing significantly to the left since the campaign has started.
You must understand that the average Western Australian is anti-change regardless of the issue, but once enough people jump on board the issue of change the rest follow… For example – Mandurah Railway Line, most against it and as it nears completion more ppl get excited about it and like sheep jump on board…. now that it is about to complete everyone can’t wait to use it, another issue during the Dick Court years was the Polly Farmer Tunnel, most didn’t want it, but as it neared completion people jumped on board and started liking it and now it is loved by most road users and couldnt imagine Perth without it.
The same is happening with Labor here… no one wanted change from Howard, but as time goes on and nears to D-day, people start to get used to the idea of a new government and by D-day you will find that the Libs have lost their marginal seats and maybe even a suprise of Kalgoorlie or Canning.
In fact I will give up bloggin altogether if we lose any seats in WA, I am that confident now that its all done and dusted here in the West…
Well i would posit that if it is looking like a close election ie gets to 52-48 or 51-49 then the liberals could hold their marginals and maybe get Cowan or Swan but i agree if it stays at 54-46 or higher then at the most 2 Liberal marginals will be gone (the bandwagon effect is strong in WA).
366 Mathew Cole – Well Matt then I can’t help you. Keep fretting and worrying over things you have no control over. Keep on misreading the signs out there. Keep ignoring all of the empiricle data suggesting the Libs are in trouble and have a worrying two weeks. What more can I say?
I find that there is wayyyyyyyyyyy too many Lefties on PB runnin’ around like headless chooks… I understand that the Evil Dark Lord Rodent has managed to pull sh*t out of his arse at the most opportune times, but I doubt there is much that can save him this time..
I believe even a terrorist attack on our great country may have a negative effect on Howard (as in the last Spain election). The only thing that could see The Rodent hold this time is a major scandal involving Labor, but most importantly, Rudd (example, video of Rudd backdooring Amanda Vanstone in The Great Hall of Parliament) that would even put me off voting for him.
Sooooooooooooooo, harden the f**k up Labor people. It’s all over and the tories know it, but don’t have the cajones to admit it to you yet.
Glen it sounds like you are trying to convince yourself. Your the boy who got horse manure for Xmas and spends the rest of your life looking for the pony.
I would never to be sure of WA
The media in Perth (and particuarly The West Australian newspaper) would have to be the most conservative in the nation.
Everyday Perth people are bombarded with anti-Rudd rubbish. According to The West, Rudd will take away my super, inflation wiill hit 1000%, Rudd eats feotuses etc etc
I think at best the ALP will gain one seat in WA, and eat into the margins of others
I have tried numerous times to put a comment on a News Limited Website. Each time the comment has never made it out of moderation. I notice a few contributors here (Scaper and Kina) get their comments posted.
Do others have trouble?? My comments are moderate. Except for the last one in which I accussed them of being a pack of lying b*stards. I assume I am forever banned.
A curse on the house of Murdoch.
Mark 396
I always have trouble getting past GG moderation, but most of the time its my own fault because whores like Caroline and Janet piss me off so incredibly that I always add some colourful language to my post. But what usually happens is they delete the colourful language or personal attacks and post the rest.
Inner Westie @364
Get nicked. I wish to learn. You might know how to do these things – I don’t. Windows is a mystery for me. I work with Mac. Pull your head in … and what are your plans for the election-night party?
Spears on Agenda said tomorrows poll shows that Turnbull is “in for the fight of his life in Wentworth”.
Absolutely everything about that Morgan 62/38 outlier was perfectly normal except, the Liberal primary which was down 5% Amazing that everything else turns up normal except for one figure.
Morgan shouldn’t be embarassed about it – all the pollsters have outliers, thats life. AND who knows, maybe they have picked up something thats going on. Some have noted that Morgan tended to find the trends before the other polls. :]
Mathew Cole 387
Thanks Mathew. I think Adam wrote that long ago (after some rogue poll
of the whole of WA showing only a small swing) and I have not seen
any polling that suggests that Swan is in trouble at all.
All the recent WA state-wide polls show an average swing of 6-9% to Labor:
and that is going back several months now.
There have been a few individual WA seat polls which show a more complicated
picture at that detail but no-one is bothering to poll Swan.
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