The ABC reports that Galaxy’s poll of Wentworth, which we first heard about on Thursday, shows Malcolm Turnbull and George Newhouse locked at 50-50 on two-party preferred. The only further detail provided is that Turnbull leads by 8 per cent on the primary vote, and that the sample size was 800. All will be revealed in tomorrow’s Sunday Telegraph.
UPDATE: Sunday Telegraph article here. Primary vote figures are Liberal 44 per cent, Labor 36 per cent and Greens 14 per cent.
423 Comments
Still in with a chance,still Turnbulls to lose.
Will John Howard campaign in Wentworth?
Turnbull won’t lose it.
Even I would vote for Turnbull over that other idiot.
Anyone catch him on the 7:30 report the other night. When asked about the pulp mill decision his response was: “Malcolm Turnbull has made his decision, and we will stick with that position and thats the Labor parties position.” Then asked again if it was his personal belief he goes on “Turnbull has made the decision, and thats our position and the pulp mill will be built… blah blah blah”
A true idiot with no position.
Doubt it. Johnny’s not a Grammar boy. He’s not from the right part of town.
It is still blueblood. The Dinks at Coogee and Bondi are mostly greenies and the Gays would mostly hate Howard.
Would we be discussing Wentworth if King was still the member? I think Turnbull has done a lot of damage in Wentworth.
Will be interesting to see how the Green prefs flow in the HOR in this seat. Might be a fair few Bluebloods tossing up the idea of a protest vote.
“Would we be discussing Wentworth if King was still the member?”
If the same redistribution that gave the division Potts Point and those other suburbs from the Division of Sydney still were to apply, then yes.
1 Bob from Bonner. No it’s the ALP’s to win, still waiting for their campaign to start.
I believe the Greens will do better than the polls show and I suspect that a lot of younger voters are missed in opinion polling.
Did the pollsters mention the candidates names when asking for opinions? They’d need to do that to get an accurate reflection of voters’ intentions. If they merely asked by party, it’s likely that Malcolm Turnbull will do better than this poll shows.
I’ve been tipping a landslide to Labor this election for a long time, but i have always thought Turnbull would hang on in Wentworth.
It is not the Malcolm Turnbull’s of the Coalition that the public are rebelling against.
King got 13,000 votes last election as an independent. 40% of preferences went to Labor.
Turnbull had a 15%+ lead on primaries now he has 8% – a swing of 7% on primaries to Labor.
There in a feeling that Turnbull “bought himself a seat”. I think King would have won easily this year even accepting the redistribution.
What makes you think that HarryH? Everyone I know is thoroughly unimpressed with Turnbull.
I hope he loses. I know somebody else who hopes he loses. Peter Costello, hahaha, he wants to be opposition leader for as long as possible.
If last time is any guide (when I lived there), Turnbull will absolutely swamp the electorate with personally-financed direct mail in the last 2 weeks. I doubt that he’ll lose it. Nice that it’s close though – like Bennelong, it’s more resources dragged away from the seats they really need to retain…
Turnbull will win Wentworth easily.
The Newhouse challenge is nothing more than a gaggle of Young Labor ring-ins wearing their tired looking Kevin 07 t shirts.
The odds of $1.41 (yesteday) for Turnbull are a bargain.
He will increase his margin on November 24 – just watch.
Isabella
Turnbull had a 2.4% swing AGAINST him last election. What makes you think he will increase his majority this time?
The SMH reported today both Labor and Liberal insiders conceding that in the last 2 weeks, Labor’s vote in Wentworth has picked up markedly, due to concerns about Work Choices and climate change.
Labor is said not to be too confident about winning Wentworth, due to Turnball’s massive campaign resources and finances, so a 50:50 result is a little stunning!
Go George Newhouse!
Turnbull will lose Wentworth easily.
The Turnbull campaign is based upon him buying the seat with his own wealth and the electorate knows it. Democracy is not for sale.
Make some easy money and get on Newhouse at $2.70 – a great deal.
He will have a winning margin on November 24 – just watch.
Turnbull could cover the whole electorate knee-deep in literature over the next two weeks, and it wouldn’t make any difference. The voters have made up their minds. If it’s 50-50 now, it will still be 50-50 on 24/11, and the Wentworthies will have a late night. I predicted that Turnbull would hang on, and I’ll stick to that prediction, but it will obviously be very close and an ALP win is still possible.
Isabella, you’d know all about ring-ins wearing bogus teeshirts, wouldn’t you? I photographed you in one in Melbourne Ports in 2004.
LaborVoter @ 3 – stunning example of message discipline…
I still think Turnbull will win. The fact that a high profile Independent ran in 2004 makes Wentworth more marginal than what it would normally be. Having said that, the general swing toward Labor, especially in affluent socially liberal inner city suburbs will mean that Turnbull will hold Wentworth by a very narrow margin like 51-49 or even 50.5-49.5.
LaborVoter @ 3. Couldn’t the same be said about Turnbull? Didn’t Peter Cundall say Turnbull told him he hates the pulp mill?
I don’t recall Turnbull having the courage to publically air that view, so I think its a bit much to criticise Newhouse.
In your dreams Dr Carr, in your dreams. I may be rather photogenic but quite frankly I think we both know that I’m not your type.
That said, the behaviour of Team Danby on election days is well known across the political spectrum.
Tantrums, dummy spits, intimidation of young female campaign workers, aggressive and crass behaviour.
Thumbs down for that approach Dr Carr.
Turnbull on 44% primary will not be enough. He’s got to increase primary by 2% to be in the game
The high profile independent was the former friggin member who got rolled in a Turnbull branch stack.
I am sick of the not real margin frog poo. The margin was real. We have a preferential voting system and the swing against Turnbull was 2.4%
Turnbull is line ball in a seat that has been held by the Libs for 106 years.
LTEP @ 12
just a gut feel. they might not be impressed with Malcolm but they don’t hate him.
a substantial amount of Lib supporters have to turn to Labor for Wentworth to go.
this will happen in plenty of other seats but not quite enough in Wentworth.
If Hockey or Abbott or Ruddock or Andrews or Costello or Downer or Alex Hawke etc etc were the candidate in Wentworth then it would fall.
i’ll be happy with the 40 or so other seat pick ups.
Anybody know whats the best TTP Labor ever got?
Adam what t-shirt, please tell.
I think the only dream Isabella would appear in would be a nightmare. And shame on you for making a veiled gay joke. That’s the Liberals all over – sly references and dog whistles. Really, I think most Australians are too mature for that kind of garbage.
Turnbulls minions will be enough to convince the good electors of Wentworth that it’s time for a change. Labor is going to win the election overall and will pick up seats they’ve never won before. Who in their right mind would have predicted a Liberal victory in Lindsay or Labor losing Oxley prior to 1996?
Interesting times ahead.
Nine News says that the Green primary in Wentworth is 15%. (Or 16, can’t quite remember. It’s in the mid-teens.)
All elections have seats that are decided by a handfull of votes.
This election has Wentworth.
According to nine news greens vote @ 14%
BTW where are Labor’s adds – plenty for Nairn & Gash but not a cracker from Labor.
slartybardfast: I think (though I stand to be corrected) that 1983 was Labor’s highest ever TPP with around 53%
I think Turnbull will hold on. 50/50 is not a good poll for Labor.
Whitlam and Hawke both got around 53.
Then you have to go back to Curtin, who got about 55 in 1943.
I doubt either party will ever get 55 ever again.
50/50 is a pretty good poll for Labor, considering the general opinion is that Turnbull will hold Wentworth, confirmed by the betting markets. If I was Turnbull I’d be worried.
I think Wentworth will hinge on how the rest of the campaign goes. If the Libs rally then it’s likely safe, if the train really falls of the rails it may go with the tide. If Howard plays a dog whistle or something else very right-wing anything could happen (including I imagine Turnbull throttling him).
Some people seem to think that the Wentworth electors will put off by Turnbull’s persona (or whatever). To me, his persona is that he’s money-hungry, successful in his career, socially (fairly) progressive, and pushy.
And these attributes are thought to be out of place in the Eastern Suburbs of Sydney???!
He’ll win.
Mmm, I wonder what the Labor Party could do to get John Howard over there for a bit of a “meet and greet” ? Maybe a bit of a leak that Turnbull had paid that poor woman in Penrith to fall down when the PM came near?
Alternatively, perhaps, someone from Labor could stick up campaign posters for Turnbull which have a photo of the PM and the words HOWARD LIBERAL GOVERNMENT in large letters, all over the electorate, just to remind the punters what they are really voting for?
I reckon that either of these approaches should score a few percent for Newhouse or the Greens!
Cheers
Rod
Turnbull’s not going to get a primary less than 46%. Do your sums based on this.
For non Sydney observers this seat is home to many of the wealthiest people in Australia. This just shouldn’t be even discussed as a Labor win. To get where they are, Labor and Newhouse have exposed the real trouble LNP are in.
Win or lose Wentworth, the Coalition is gone.
Turnbull will hold Wentworth. Despite the margin, the historical odds are in his favor, and his high profile and low baggage (unlike Howardm, who has a very high profile and very high baggage) will mean he is in the box seat. Also, as noted elsewhere, his opponent seems reasonable enough, but is not Maxine McKew, which will also help. Put Maxine in Wentworth and Newhouse in Bennelong and then I think we’d all be saying Howard will hold on.
After 3 decimating polls the bookies haven’t really moved what gives. Labor is expected to win 79 seats with the sum of all the bookies odds. They obviously don’t take Morgan, or ACN online seriously.
Don’t know if this one has been posted or not:
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22733696-5013945,00.html
I thought the following lines were rather interesting:
It’s a good thing he didn’t arrive as a refugee six years later, or he’d still be on a remote island somewhere in the Pacific Ocean.
The rest of the article is somewhat revealing, though.
that should be dessimating
Too close to call folks.
From what I’ve been told, the guy is a bit of a megalomaniac.
If he does lose I hope he does not revert to his childhood habits.
Plastic sheet anyone???
Yes, sadly, The Anointed One will win in Wentworth (in my view). However, the leadership contest between him and the only other Liberal candidate to win a seat in the lower house (Bronwyn Bishop) will be thrilling. I suspect the ballot will be drawn, in which case The Anointed One will have the casting vote (coz he’s wealthier and better connected than poor old Bronny).
On another thread, Derek Corbett asked what I plan to be doing on election night. Well, I’m going to a party with friends in Melbourne (I live in Sydney), all of whom:
(a) Are Greens voters (except James, who’s voting Labor this time coz he reckons the Greens are “incoherent and a bit of a rabble”);
(b) Will be eating barbecued the-next-brand-up-from-generic-pork sausages (or tofu patties), and swilling vast quantities of the-next-brand-up-from-the-cheapest cask wine;
(c) Will be buoyant beyond civil limits of behaviour at the unutterably exciting prospect of a thumping-a*sed Howard demolition
(d) Will enjoy their first day of The New Sun in bed, recovering from a long night of euphoria, catalepsy and laughter, laughter, laughter.
But seriously, it’s going to be the best night of my 35 year life (assuming the unmentionable doesn’t occur, in which case I’ll be packing my bags for Turkmeistan).
That’s Turkmenistan.
Anyone know who Daniel will be preferencing. She is tasty and savvy to say the least.
Turnbull will win here easily on the the doctors’ wives vote, because they all wish he was their husband.
And seriously, I will be dancing in the street when Howard loses, but Turnbull is not tarred with the same brush and I’m thinking about voting for him. He’s the kind of liberal you want in the liberal party in opposition, who can lead a real break from the howard era, and who will have at least some moral standing to say something about human rights when Labor start mailing out fridge magnets and playing the race card as well.
Thankyou centaur_007. A typo I didn’t think I’d need to correct.
So does his sister in law.
Adam @ 19
Is Isabella the famous Miranda from Pandagate fame?
If there’s a Labor primary vote of 36% and a Greens vote for 14% Malcolm is quite possibly cactus. That’s 50% of Wentworth voting for centre/left candidates – almost unprecedented! If Newhouse gets up to 38% then he’s home. I reckon it will depend on whether the climate change/pulp mill vote goes to the Greens or the independents, and if it goes to the independents, will they preferene Labor.
@42 in 1995 it would be just ‘after’ not ‘as’ Keatings boom began. And if Mr Amo is crediting Mr Howard with his prosperity he either needs to learn english (perhaps the racists are right) or someone should tell him (oh wait I want to say the next thing but occassionally self-censorship kicks in, if anyone knows how to move from ‘intermittent’ to ‘on’ I’d be most grateful).
50:50 in Wentworth is indeed a labor dream, win lose or draw the ALP should be very very happy. Nice too, to see some quite silly criticism of a male candidate, like Ms Cornes the criticisms to me seem bizarre and unfounded and unrealistic. But it is nice this time it is stupid unfair unrealistic criticism of a bloke. There are probably only 100 extra bloke candidates for you to have silly unfounded and unrealistic criticisms of and I’ll have to withdraw my theory the attacks on Ms Cornes are largely sexisim alive and well in Australia.
You people should really have a sit down and a long long hard think about the kind of candidates you want and how easy it is to pick on people who don’t have Bill Clinton’s sex appeal and political instincts, Paul Keatings intellect and the cuddliness of santa clause. Look at world leaders for a moment. I’m not sure, if you were ever let onto a pre-selection panel or committee you’d find a single candidate you could run.
And I’m assuming you are liberal trolls no real labor person would say such nasty things in the open during an election campaign we have factions to keep the bitchiness inside with friends.
I feel funny saying this. I want Labour to win resoundingly but I hope Turnbull keeps his seat. Out of all the coalition I think he is the idea’s man. He’s intelligent and I get the feeling he’s toeing a party line he can’t wait to be freed from. I think the Liberal party needs a leader like him to pick up the pieces and maybe become PM when the Labor cycle ends.
I think Costello is the Beazley of the Liberal party and will never be PM. Just opposition leader for a while.
What were the primaries given in that poll?
Do you think they have apportioned Greens preferences correctly?
Malcom Mackarras, incessantly wrong Grandfather Psephology, was interviewed briefly in a television report about Wentworth last week. He reckoned that many Libs who are angry over the Pulp Mill decision will still give Turnbull their 2nd preference after Green Party because they they dislike Costello (Mr. 4 %) heaps and want the Liberals to still have Turnbull available after Costello stuffs things up as Opp. Leader or PM.
Having read Turnbull’s books about his leadership of the Republican Referendum Campaign and his role as advocate in the Peter Wright “Spycatcher” trial, I consider him less odious than Costello, Abbott, Coonan, Brough, and the rest.
Nevertheless, it would be a huge treat to see Labor take Wentworth for the first time.
Win one. Lose many.
Anyway, Turnbull may yet be one of the last of the remnant small L Liberals left standing.
Might provide some sanity as they take their few places on the Opposition benches.
Crikey Whitey,
I’m with you and Nostradoofus on this as Turnbull with all his faults is the next logical leader and we need a strong opposition to achieve true democracy.
It might take over a year before this happens though, to the fact that I see much bloodletting.
Sorry to change the subject, but I was wondering about the incident at (Penrith?) shopping centre where the woman was knocked over. After reading that she was knocked unconscious, it cannot have been a trivial bump. Apart from Howard’s reaction, the obvious question was – who knocked her over and in what circumstances? I ask because I find that if there is one thing journalists are bad at reporting, it is indiscretions by journalists. So, did the press pack knock her over, or Howard’s minders? I presume that if it was Howard himself it would have made the front page. One here for Media Watch?
Oh, I agree, Turnbull is generally less odious than the others. But, he’s in bed with Howard and should be judged as such.
And I hate to say it but, Turnbull’s personal rep doesn’t matter that much in this election. This is very much about Howard.
Crikey, scaper etc…
The next Liberal PM hasn’t even thought of running for parliament yet.
Give it a decade or so.
mad cow,
In bed with Turnbull??……I wonder if big John wore a wet suit?
For some reason that makes me think ‘bottom of the harbour…’
unlike other seats, you have to be careful with expectations from the Green vote and independant vote here.
if the Green vote is 16% in Wentworth, it could well be made up of 10% labor 2nd prefs and 6% lib 2nd prefs.
i think some “wet” Green Libs in Wentworth will vote Green and preference Malcolm, whereas in other seats they will abandon Howards Libs altogether.
I agree with those express a certain approval of Turnbull.
As a person of his business background, I can imagine him chafing sorely at the party line and at possibly the unwillingness of his boss to adapt to new ideas, renewing to stay afloat, perceive the changing winds, if not climates.
I may have missed it, but I haven’t heard him espouse any of the mean spirited attitudes and actions commonly dished out by the other Government front benchers.
Labor is for misogynists
Liberal is for everyone
HarryH, it aint just the Green he’s gotta worry about
mad cow,
Rusty bed springs to mind.
According to Ozelections, Turnbull has 44% primary and Newhouse (ALP) 36%. If Greens have 14%, that would indeed make it very close. However, greens prefs may not necessarily flow to Labor in great strength in this seat.
Crikey, which way did Turnbull vote on WorkChoices?
scaper.. wet liberal? ah.. got it
Tabitha, it’s past your bedtime, so be a good little Liberal girl and tuck yourself in.
Labor is for people’s needs
Liberal is for corporate greed
There’s no way Howard would campaign in Wentworth. Anyone who votes Liberal around here will vote despite Howard, not because of him.
Didn’t Anthony Green say that undecides broke 2/1 with the trend. That might indicate a surprise loss for Turnbull.
Oh, duh, mad cow.
Guess your’e right!
William, please delete my comment on Turnbull.
Liberal are misogynists.
Labor gives opportunities to strong women like me.
I don’t buy this ‘frustrated centrist’ line about Turnbull. Recall that when Howard was madly spruiking the N option, Turnbull was there at the dispatch box dutifully thumping out his master’s message: ‘renewables will never provide base load power’ etc. (He should have a read of Ian Lowe’s recent (quarterly) essay Reaction Time if he’s still of that view.) And now he expects us to believe that he and his party are the only mob who can responsibly take the global warming agenda forward in this country.
I mean, I accept that policy development always involves a degree of compromise (which Turnbull’s immune from apparently), and backroom argy-bargy etc., but in my opinion there is a line beyond which compromise becomes serious abrogation of responsibility. And there could be no more a fundamentally serious challenge facing all of us at present than global warming.
To have so passionately and effectively done Howard’s (obfuscatory, denial-afflicted) bidding on this question makes me think Turnbull’s either too weak for such an important job, or a fraud.
I’d be very happy to see him go (but as I said in an earlier post, I suspect he won’t).
You know I hate it when you’re on one blog, and the you find another one has started, and you realise most of what you have written for the last 1 hours has been read by about 2 people!!
Turnbull is NOT going to lose his seat.
He’s probably the only one in the entire Coalition with a pulse. Plus the other guy is useless.
Yes there is a lot of green voters, but Turnbull also has a rock solid Primary vote which is gonna get him over the line quite easily.
Plus you’d have to be crazy to vote for that other idiot over Turnbull… if the 7:30 report interview is anything to go by he’s a complete airhead. Turnbull however actually seems to believe what he is saying even if most of it is BS.
Turnbull to win Wentworth easily imho.
Kina can you explain that one about the undecideds?
Labor are true economic reformers.
Liberal piggy back off Labor’s success and botch it up by allowing 6 successive rises in the past term.
Mmm, even my couplet is a contradiction in terms.
Think I merit a lack of performance bonus.
What say you, non binders?
Turnbull – General Counsel for Consolidated Press Holdings Limited and you guys think he is a wet.
He was Packers Mr Fixit. He is no cuddly moderate.
Labor Voter @ 79. I’m not sure that what you’re saying actually hold true.
Turnbull told Cundall that he hated the pulp mill.
Publically, he’s for it.
What about Kyoto? Behind the scenes he’s for signing it, publically, he’s against signing it.
You could hardly claim that he believes in what he’s telling the public.
It’s easier to argue that he doesn’t have the courage to speak up for what he believes in.
Triffid,
It is a bit like rowing a boat. Going one way while facing the other. I am told that this is very clever politics.
Triffid,
On the mark.
I have an email in my possesion indicating this.
He and Garrett both are in this situation.
Meanwhile Rome burns.
Apparently he is the Minister FOR Climate Change, I think in that regard he is doing a fine job.
Of course I would want Garret as the Minister AGAINST climate change any day.
As much as I want to get rid of the Rodent, I do not wish to see Malcolm Turnbull lose his seat. To me he represents true Liberalism, as opposed to the neo-conservatism of Howard et al. There is also the fact of his support for the republic, we need people of his breadth of vision in Parliament, irrespective of politics.
I am having troube posting, so this is just a test…. sorry
Triffid at 84.
Maybe Turnbull is Peter Garrett’s brother in arms?
Turnbull is completely empty. If he was a true liberal he’d resign the Cabinet after their disgusting antics and move to the backbench.
How can a true liberal support the party after Haneef… Iraq… Tampa etc. If you sell out you don’t deserve any sympathy.
ruawake,
against normal standard bearers Turnbull is a raving rightwing nutcase headkicking pompous asshole.
against the bulk of fellow Howard frontbenchers he looks a moderate.
he’ll win Wentworth
Does anyone know why I might be having trouble posting my post?
In today’s Northern Star, which is the local newspaper for the Northern Rivers District of NSW, they have today their own poll for the PAGE constituency.
By their own admission it is not particularly scientific, but they say that 330 people were polled. No TPP, but it’s 44% ALP, 41% Nat, with others/undecideds as the rest. Page is a marginal and one in which the Coalition and the ALP have been outdoing each other to see who is the best at porkbarrelling.
Earlier in the week, the Northern Star also reported that Rudd, who was at Ballina RSL on Melbourne Cup Day afternoon, picked Efficient as the winner, which to me, being a Byron kind of guy, is a big sign.
Hi Tabby #65,
Your simple yet mind blowing quips do give me moments of clarity as this blogging blogs my head…NOT!
However I must know & I think you can answer this – do Liberals fold and Labor voter scrumple? or visa-versa?
I must know or I’ll have another sleepiness night!
‘Kina can you explain that one about the undecideds’? Per mad cow at 80.
We are waiting; is Mrs Kina okay?
True, LTEP, at 91. Is Turnbull Costello’s brother in arms?
Re 80,
Mad cow,
Not much to explain. Antony originally reported that a couple of weeks back. He said it was based on historical polling references so there is data to back it up. Don’t know if he is hunkered down or not getting ready for the 24th, I suspect so, but if he gets back onto one of the threads here, we can ask him on ‘what basis’ he says that?
:)
#
19
Adam Says:
Isabella Says:
Jai-mei Says:
And charles says: ????????? What has dreams got to do with taking a photo, and what has Isabella’s misinterpretation got to do with a Joke, Gay, happy or otherwise ????????
mad cow @ 80
There was a discussion on one of the threads some days ago about how the broke on election day. One person said it went mostly to the govt, I think h Possum may have mentioned something on his site somewhere and I recall Anthony Green piping in and saying that it broke 2/1 in the direction of the trend. That is my recollection.
Michael @99.Are you Glen?
undecided voters that is
Peter @ 100 – no, just for some reason I can’t post something – can’t explain why – there are no words in it which I would expect would automatically cause by post to be set aside. just doesn’t come up. weird
The Liberals campaign was dependent on there being no interest rate rise. They were so wrong and as Rod Cameron suggests in todays Age, that is why their campaign is in such disarray now.
Costello categorically stated there would be no rise in November. Dutton did the same. Why were they certain?
What did they know that made them bet the house it?
Mrs Kina is fine – has a hundred chicken wings and a big pot.
I think we will see something that has not being witnessed before in the political landscape.
There will come a time when all parties will sit at the table in agreement to take this nation forward as we approach the biggest challenge to our existence.
We will all have to be brothers in arms.
Ok, how many deck chairs from the front bench are going overboard? I will say 8 and they belong to (in no particular order):
Andrews
Howard
Abbot
Costello
Hockey
Pyne
McGauran
Turnbull
I will keep my informal list at home and check it off in 2 weeks time. I would dearly like to add Downer and Ruddock to that list but I don’t honestly think either will go (in spite of rumors to the contrary in Mayo recently)
Socrates – Woman knocked down
My understanding is, after listening in to an airport lounge conversation of two Liberal hacks, that Howard knocked the woman over in a fit of rage. Evidently she said something about being sorry that Howard wasn’t sorry for saying he wasn’t really sorry the previous day. Howard then decked her and as she lay on the ground he pointed to her and said “And I’m not sorry about that either”. Since then Lib minders have been desperately trying to spin the story that she was accidentally knocked over by the press scum – or scrum – not sure which. Denis Shenanigan has a letter from PM & C proving that Howard didn’t do it so I guess that’s the real truth.
Something like that anyway.
Some of this ‘undecided’ vote must be taken with a dose of salts.
A re-interviewee on Geraldine’s program this morning, said that his ‘undecided’ vote had firmed definitely for the coalition.
Could have knocked me over with how vote card. As if that wasn’t obvious from his first interview of a couple or so weeks ago.
He said some most unflattering things about Kev, but worse, said if the Greens and the Dems get hold of the Senate, God help us!
Slight revamp from post, previous thread.
Yet, some interviewees in the various seats as heard continually, do present as genuine undecided, and don’t express or withhold affiliation/voting pattern.
Howard has sent a telegramy thingy to Sidonis, but misplaced. None to save them. The iceberg is out there.
Goodness, Kina at 104.
Sounds very entrailish.
kina @99, sorry for sounding a bit thick.. but 2/1 in the direction of *which* trend?
Julie @106,
You’re lucky William accepted your post. That list is effectively pornography round these parts!
hey scaper, Mrs Briss says she is not going to sit at any table with Howard or his rank wife or any other poxy liberals for that matter.
Anyone seen any TV advertisements for the minor parties yet?
I hadn’t seen any in Adelaide before tonight (Family Fraud twice in 10 minutes).
Some of these supposed undecideds betray themeselves by how they refer to things which, indicates they do have a bias. The real undecideds are the people who think about politics once a year for 5 minutes in the polling booth. Anthony says they follow the trend 2/1. Maybe that is the big deal about momentum, make it appear you have the trend?
I guess he is meaning the direction of the swing. Hopefully he might come on later.
hugh briss,
Curs don’t sit at the table, they sit on the floor and feed off the scraps!
The table is a privilege that is earned.
Got to go….leg of hockey for dinner.
scaper @ 86, righto then lets have it.
Mad Cow,
Antony said that the undecideds break 2 to 1 with the current trend in the polls, so the poll leader. In this case, that would be the ALP nationally as they have led for the last 11 months or so. That means that of the undecideds, if they break this time as they have done so historically; Rudd will get 67% of those. When Antony posted that (about 2 weeks ago I think) I pretty much stopped worrying about the outcome of the election
kind @ 115
The AEC should just use a random number generator and save them all the trouble. (No interruption to waxing their SUVs or whatever.)
I saw a Greens ad tonight – they have a theme song!!!!
Julie,
On what basis are you saying that Warringah (for Abbott) is going to fall?
I also seriously doubt Menzies (for Andrews) or North Sydney (for Hockey) are about to fall either…
Julie @106, Well a couple of those are a bit of a long shot, but heck, it’s nice to dream. Final result 57% with ’special’ swings in ’special’ seats.. like Mayo
Woops, that was kin(a) @ 120… sorry-apologies.
Have Chicken entrails to look at – literally. ciao
Socrates @ 58, a camera man walked backwards and knocked her over. That’s why you see a camera man kneeling over her which is kinda unusual as his hands were full and really could not help her.
Hey, Triffid at 114.
Is there anything on commercial teev worth watching so I can actually catch some ads?
I won’t mind if Turnbull survives, even though I’m desperate to see the end of Howard. A defeated Liberal party will have to rebuild, and a lot of current policy will go into the garbage bin along with Howard. The Liberals will look at the demographics they’ve lost and will plan to win them back, and this will involve dropping the wedges and dogwhistle stuff that has alienated so many inner-city small-l types, and getting back to a more mainstream position on IR. It beggars belief that Costello will be the man to do that, it will need somebody like a Turnbull to do it.
My hope is that we will actually end up with a lot more consensus than we have today, so that progress on issues like the Republic and state/federal relations in areas like health can happen, instead of the bitterness and division and xenophobic populism we have with Howard. But first Rudd has to dispose of Howard, then Turnbull (or someone like him) has to destroy the far right elements within his own party!
centaur_007, go on about tasty candidates and I’ll start discussing Tony Abbott’s physique.
Crkiey Whitey @ 127. I;ve long since turned off the TV. Nothing on tonight I’m afraid.
Swing Lowe,
Just wishful thinking on my part, who I think will go. Nothing formal there at all, I was just putting up my “dart board” list for the 24th
. I am sure we all have our “want to see these guys” go list, what is yours?
(Now, mind you, some of those names on my list are backed up by reliable polling data and are more likely to go than others)
hey ’scapes @105. See you when the lion sits down with the (leg of)lamb.
ps i know you are still there
Once upon a time, but not so long ago, I expressed a view that Sidonos had left Bunker Howard, perhaps as a matter of principle.
But also because he knew Howard would blow up once Kev was on the good ship.
Sidonos comes across as a kindly fellow, in interviews.
But, slow I am, but I think Sidonis was Howard’s, whom?
Glen, name a Nazi, who bailed out before the bunker blew.
Rudd campaigning today in Sturt with his wife and ALP candidate Mia Handlin.
Labor is going all out to win every seat in Adelaide!
Will Mr Turnbull stay around in opposition?
Wentworth and Bennelong are now more and more the same !
Hess
Turnbull is now too badly tainted. I think the Vorlons had it right here..
http://digitalidesigns.net/grfx-sf-b5-vpk.htm
Oh.. you’re a Howard minister… you’ve been tainted! *boom*
Howard Hater @ 134.
I live in Sturt & saw them at Thorndon Park this morning. If you also live in Sturt, where did you see them?
I haven’t seen Pyne or any of his people this election.
If Turnball loses Wentworth, Ruddock will be put out to pasture and Malcolm will get Berowra!
I can’t believe supposed Labor supporters are actually barracking for a Liberal to win a marginal seat.
Howard Government ministers who could be very vulnerable:
Rodent
Turnball
Gary Nairn
Chris Pyne
Fran Bailey
I don’t believe Hockey or Abbott will lose their seats
Oh, but what of what will poor Christopher do if he loses? (I can see an uncontrollable addiction to war histories coming on … dear Chris, so much opportunity, so little talent …)
HH, if Rudd is going all out on a seat like Sturt, *when* is he gonna visit Paterson? And when is the ALP machine gonna crank up the ads here. If it wasn’t for this blog I’d hardly notice we’re having an election.
Triffid, I live in Sydney. I saw Rudd on the ABC News this evening, and they pointed out he was in Sturt today.
‘glad to see you go’ please drop by again
Give Pyne a break, he was made minister for people he did not like.
Mad Cow, perhaps Rudd will be visiting Patterson soon? I read in the paper during the week that the ALP is very encouraged by polling in your seat.
Julie I think you’re being just a tad optimistic there. The only minister who definitely going to lose his seat is Nairn (having been specifically denounced by William, how could he hope to survive?). Pyne, McGauran, Bailey and Lloyd are obviously in serious danger. In Qld Brough and Gambaro are in some danger, although few seem to be predicting their defeat. (I am advised however that Labor is still spending big in Longman). I gather Billson is increasingly nervous about Dunkley. Howard, Turnbull and Hockey are obviously under threat, but may yet survive. I don’t believe Abbott or Costello are in trouble. The chance to beat Downer by finding a strong independent has been missed.
Adam19 -it would explain a lot if isabella and tabitha are manifestations of Mirnanda Panda Airhead
HH, so encouraged by polling that it’s doing nothing? It’s been wall to wall Baldwin ads at times here with the only comeback being the union ads.
The DECIDER for Wentworth can be found here:-
http://greens.org.au/Wentworth
Susan Jarnason, the Green candidale for Wentworth, and her votes will be the the determinating factor in Wentworth , as will be the case all across Australia.
What does the Main Stream Media give us “2PP Club” results and hide the HUGE Green vote figures.
HH, where did you see the info which said the Bennelong poll would come out on Monday? Was it in the treeware version of the DT, or online?
Speaking of ads, does anyone else get the feeling that some of the ads are being ‘trialled’ here and there to figure out which ones end up in the coming blitz?
What time is the Lib launch tomorrow? On Sky? Will Smirky McSmirk be smirking?
Question probably asked a zillion times over the years, but I’ll ask it again:
Explain why a “campaign launch” takes place 13 days before an election (in Labor’s case, 10 days) when the official campaign has been 4 weeks, and the unofficial one going for 9 months?
@ 144
Is that actually a ministry? Is there also a department of People He Did Like? My guess is Pyne will get a full time job as Howard’s personal carer (and that he’ll be forced onto an AWA before any reversals are legislated, with a clause specifying 24 hour ‘toilet attendance’ …).
I see the bookies have Labor favourite to win Robertson: very surprising! Belinda Neale must be campaigning better than one might have expected.
Adam: Bruce Billson is one Liberal I don’t mind, seems like a nice bloke. So the ALP thinks they can win Dunkley?
122 Swing Lowe. Have a look at the polls, then the swing meter. Then you will see the evidence. And when the ALP finally gets its act together and starts advertising. BOOM.
labor secret weapon revealed!!!
There is an army of kevin rudds out there,in every electorate,every city,every state just waiting to appear at a shopping centre near you
Ashley, it was on the front page of the Daily Terror today.
Maybe it’s on their website too?
Cheers, couldn’t see it on their website. I guess it’s definitely on Monday then (presumably the Wentworth poll is for the Sunday Tele).
That is going to provide a nice talking point for the media on Monday isn’t it? “The Coalition holds its campaign launch… meanwhile another poll shows Howard set to lose Bennelong 53-47 (my guess)”.
That’s gonna be fun.
Yes, Liberal campaign launch: Rodent desperate bribery on Monday
Labor’s campaign launch: Wednesday?
The Green are 3rd on the ballot paper with
Labor 9th
Liberal 10th
Donkey vote to Labor 1%-2%
Interest rates up 1%-2% to Labor…
Factors not taken into account in this latest Gallexy poll.
“Turnbull is toast” or as they say at kindy “cactus”
Adam 146
Please let us know your basis why Nairn down and dusted. He must have a lot campaign cash as he’s running heaps of quality-production commercials on WIN-TV. One is simply anti-Labor fear and loathing, another is boasting of all the pork barrel projects he’s scored for the electorate. Only Anti-Coalition ads are from the nurses union and the abbatoir workers ad which I think is also from union movement.
I would think Labor ad blitz will start from 6pm tomorrow night.
a 12 day blitzkrieg just as the few who haven’t made up their mind finally take a minute interest is the plan. ads up until now are largely irrelevant i think.
Howards record ,Your Rights at Work and Labor discipline have done all the work needed so far.
On realistic/semi realistic ministers seats falling,
i think Howard, Hockey and Andrews going would send a very clear message.
Oh the Joy
Posted on the other thread to cheer up some pessimists!
Prediction based on swings recorded in polls in each state of Ministers (Cabinet and outer) to lose their seats (to pace the drinking games)
Howard-Bennelong
Brough-Longman
Turnbull-Wentworth
Dutton-Dickson
Nairn-Eden-Monaro
Pyne-Sturt
Lloyd-Robertson
Gambaro-Petrie
Oh the Humanity!!
Portland Bet Seat Odds. South Australia. Movement Mention.
In descending, Coalition, ALP.
Aug-07 10/11/2007
Sturt 1.32 1.58 Coalition
3.00 2.25 ALP
Just keeping a note.
As it is so annoying, I suppose that most of us would not have got as far as page 12 in the Australian today.
However, it was good to see the doctors joining their wives and campaigning for action on climate change.
There was a very large (and expensive) ad put in by Doctors for the Environment on that page asking us to consider climate change policies before voting.
164, format doesn’t come out aligned, but there.
William,
we need another thread as this one is exhausted!
Correction on last post, Lib launch is Monday, apologies
Question still stands, hasn’t the campaign already been going for a while? Why does it need launching?
Triffid, Kev put an ad on ABC, apologised for taking our time. Just before the Bill.
The bill?
Andrews has already gone hasn’t he? A search party was sent out from Warrandyte at 0500 hours today and so far only a dog-eared copy of the collected scripts of Some Mothers Do ‘Ave ‘Em has been found.
Looks grim.
Hemingway: because every poll says so, and everyone who knows anything about it says so.
Tory Crimes: Yes it would, wouldn’t it?
SirEggo: Campaigns don’t have real launches any more – as you say, we’ve been in campaign mode ever since Rudd became leader (four-year terms anyone?). The title “campaign launch” is now just used to promote a big speech two weeks out from D-day. The “policy speech” is also pretty much dead. Both speeches will be just standard themes, although Howard, being a long way behind, will splash around a few trillion more bucks in pointless pork. Labor will need to be careful that its event doesn’t look too triumphalist – we all remember Kinnock’s Sheffield rally. The Libs’ problem will be to stop theirs looking like a state funeral.
Andrews? Spit on pavement. AFP still looking for him.
My goodness, are you suggesting he might have escaped to India?
Re 162,
HarryH Says:
Labor are hitting the billboards here on the freeway in SW Sydney. Saw several billboards going south between Liverpool and Campbelltown this evening. “Vote Labor with pictures of Rudd and reminders about their road promises in the electorates here.
Guys
Watch for the trump in the next week.
If it is not played, then the confidence is high and the big “change everything” will come to play.
Sorry for being cryptic, but it is best.
Goodnight.
171 Adam
Thanks, mate. I’ve obviously missed the Polling you mention, but I do know that Mike Kelly is one of the finer new Labor candidates going around. Rates up there with McKew, Combet and Shorten.
I seem to be the only Triple J listener here but on Turnbull, did anyone hear hear Kate on Hack interview him on Friday about climate change. She absolutely tore him him a new asshole! She pointed out that for someone who claims the Australia is leading the world on climate change, it seems a bit strange to insist that every other major emitter sign up to a target before we will. Also pointed out that while he whinges about the lack of a medium-term Labor target for reduction in CO2, he doesn’t have one for short, medium or long term. She ended up saying that LNP had a policy of no targets for anything except renewables-and their target here was actually less than the renewable amount existing- and no plans for a binding treaty and they wanted us to vote for them. The final comment was “You are giving us nothing!”.
173, Inner Westie.
All allusion is illusion. Had not thought of that. Tee Hee.
Diogenes – sounds like one for the podcast!
scaper scapes, on that intriguing note.
Damn, this site is sometimes such a mystery series.
Still, tv is tedious.
once again, in case you haven’t seen it
George Newhouse’s mother responds to Lucy Turnbull:
>
> You might enjoy this, particularly those of you who have received Lucy’s
> letter about the man she loves:
>
>
> http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xLQaKA6n5qo
>
Who is going to their nearest “Walk Against Warming” tomorrow?
http://www.getup.org.au/campaign/WalkAgainstWarming&id=194
In Perth, despite appropriate 35 degree heat, there may be about 5000
people coming out to show their concern for action on climate change.
The main parties have been invited to send speakers: it will be
a great opportunity for high profile candidates to parade their
party’s policies and their own charisma in front of big crowds.
Latest rumour here is that one of the two major parties is unable or unwilling
to send a speaker. Perhaps they don’t really feel that they
have appropriate policies. Or perhaps they don’t have
candidates with charisma.
Grog-it will be podcast on the J site next week for your listening pleasure. I got my 8c worth that day. Great to see some rampant bias still existing at the ABC. And I had been a Turnbull sympathiser until them but he was so fuc*king pathetic, it almost made me cringe.
scaper is labor yes?
change everything???
WHo’s on Insiders tomorrow? Swan was scheduled to be on last week, but Howard obviously wanted to get in before the interest rate rise. So that would mean tomorrow and next week will be Swan and Rudd (The campaign started with Costello, then the minor parties, 2 more to go).
TV and radio Political advertising is banned from the Weds before the election day, right?
Labor better push that button,
to answer the Q’s about the launch timing, apart from impact, all the “parliamentary assistance(tax payer funded staffers)” stops when the launch happens so the teams have to doc of pay and just do some leg work for free.
186 Follow the preferences – snap.
Dr Good, I can tell you Turnbull is not. Hack asked Turnbull if that told us something about the Environment Minister’s priorities. He wasnt happy.
I, must, know, what, scaper, means…………
Hi all: I posted this on the ACNielsen thread but didn’t realize we had all moved to this one so I’ll try again. The other couple of posters lingering there seemed to appreciate it …. *blush*.
My entry in the limerick contest:
A pugilistic ex-seminarian,
Sought control of all matters ovarian,
Come November (five and twenty),
He’ll need sedatives a-plenty,
And a stint in a nice sanitarium.
Sir Eggo, The campaign launch signals the point at which all of the travel and accommodation stops being a taxpayer funded event and becomes the responsibility of the parties. This is why the launches are so close to polling day, to keep the snouts in the trough just that little bit longer.
anyone notice the “be alert not alarmed”" ad has been on TV and Paper in the last week?
Why so Gerr? I agree I would love to see the ALP go ad crazy – pushing 20% by 2020, the child care, the education stuff… but from what I can see they’re countering the Libs interest rate ads pretty well. And as for the anti-union ads and the “ALP soft on crime” they’re just elevator music now.
Yes the Libs will come out with a child care and housing policy. You know, I know it, so I bloody hope the ALP HQ know it, and thus the ALP should get in with some policy ads now to make it look like the Libs are dragging their feet.
But the ALP is still in front no need to panic yet!
Back to the Bill, the Bill.
Workchoices.
How much is this minute examination of every AWA costing we, the taxpayer?
FOI, anyone?
Did our union dues not pay previously for such scrutiny, prior to embarking on perilous waters?
Now an ABC ad by JWH. Keeping interest rates ‘as low as possible’.
Ok Grog but I like to pre-emptively panic just in case…..
lol – I’m a life memeber of that club!
Onto an off opic, but fun subject, anyone care to guess the make-up of the Liberal shadow ministry?
JC
Yes just saw a National Security ad authorised by Mick Kelty supposedly – it’s no coincidence at all.
Grog, I don’t know that many Lib backbenchers!!!!
Oh c’mon Gerr, JC what would the ALP do – tell the govt it couldn’t put out those alert/alarmed ads during caretaker? And give the Libs a chance to make Rudd looks weak on security?
Zero percent of the population would see those ads and think, oh yes I better vote for Howard.
And on another suggestion in this or another thread, if Bush invades Iran, Howard has already said he won’t go in, but anyway do any ALP peole really fear Howard’s links with Bush being brought to the fore??
If Bush invades Iran, Rudd should come out with some strong “diplomatic” language against it, and he would be able to reduce the Libs to a rump party if they even hinted at supporting or going in as well.
197-Keystone Keelty should be more than alarmed, he must be shitting bricks. He will be one of the first packing their bags under Rudd. What a national disgrace that man is!
Nice work Ophuph Hucksake @ 190. You should send a copy to the ex-seminarian (assuming he’s retuned from Oodnadatta) and see if you get a merciful reply.
p.s. Sometimes this blog is like a high school yard at lunchtime: you gotta keep your ears pricked to know where the best fights are.
It’s no coincidence that those ads weren;t on until recently, also Libs are all about National security, I think its subliminal
JC, I think it was Antony Green or Adam who explained that Labor has given permission (gov in caretaker mode) for such ads.
On the Wentworth seat:
If you try to forget who is standing for relection, our high profile vote polarising Mr Turnbull, and just look at the polls swing indicators for NSW and remember the margin in Wentworth is a paltry 2.6.
That is 2.6, see the number and cf it to the swing on in NSW. It makes sense that this seat is currently being given 50-50 status.
Turnbull or no Turnbull, 2.6 is stuff all of a margin to defend in this kind of election climate [pardon the pun]; the Labor candidate is, ok, he is a to**er, but it does not matter in a seat with a 2.6 margin and an electorate in the mood for change. Mathematically speaking,the seat of Wentworth will change colours at this election.
I agree that the gov has purposefully arranged for the ads to be shown during the election campaign, to remind people about terrorism (and by association, “strong-on-terror” Howard).
Labor had to give permission for the ads, but obviously they didn’t have much choice… blocking them would have given the government a good ’soft on terror’ angle.
No biggie, but another low blow from the government.
Diogenes, I think Keelty and most of the AFP will be extatic if they have seen the last of Howard.
Though they probably like the news laws that do away with warrants needed for searchign and bugging (wonder if they’ll last, I know the greens were against them)
BlueBottle
Yes but that is an inflated margin based on the lat election when King (the deposed sitting Liberal) ran as an independent and picked up 14% (?) of the primary. The real margin is much higher – I would say in the vicinity of 10% despite recent redistributions. If you’ve been near double bay you’ll know what I mean.
Grog-I agree Keelty would love to se the back of Howard but he’s so hopelessly compromised now, esp by Haneef, that he’s got to go. We became an international laughing stock over Haneef and he’s got to take responsibility.
There is no such thing as ‘real margins’. Margins are what they are. If a poll says 50-50 it doesn’t matter what the ‘real’ margin is.
Most people suggest the ‘King’ factor had a very negligible effect in any case.
No one really knows what the “real” margin is in Wentworth, but most pundits seem to agree that it is probably considerably higher than Howard’s 4.3% in Bennelong.
LTEP is back….!
Just been trying the ABC online swing-o-meter (HoR) http://www.abc.net.au/elections/federal/2007/
When you put Qld on a 8% ALP swing, NSW on 5% you get ALP on 73 seats.
Then move Vic up to .1% swing to ALP, and ALP gain an extra seat, when we all know that the most marginal seat in Vic requires a 5% swing to the ALP before it can fall.
Seems the calculator merely aggregates the swings rather than calulating on a state by state basis. Is that right?
I also notice that you have to move the Vic swing to 5% for the next seat to fall. Seems something not right there.
BlueBottle
The 2001 result was 57.8% TPP to King (LIB), so the current margin after the rediastibution is about 5% off.
This is so good it needs to be reposted in it’s entirety:
Best post I’ve seen on PB in weeks.
Thanks for a very enjoyable encapsulation of the campaign so far. Did you come up with the “Shenanigan” name? That suits him to a T.
Nothing personal against Turnbull, but I would like to see him, and as many other Liberal frontbenchers gone as possible. Maybe then the party will get the message that extremism alienates voters. The Liberals need a thorough cleanout and rebuild. They have gone off the rails and taken this once-proud nation with them.
Excuse me. Had just stepped out.
I was just at Kevin 07 website, ordering some balloons.
Checked with local party shop today, election balloons? Nup.
Opportunity missed. So much for business acumen.
Plan to helium fill, and release to the heavens on Sunday.
kelly, the 73 figure is wrong, with no swing in vic it is giving it to the libs for some reason.
NB @ #207 says
NB, I’m nowhere near Double Bay. So could you please explain why the Libs margin in Wentworth has suddenly increased by 7.4% to 10%. 2% higher than they have achieved in any election in the last 23 years.
Here are the margins for each election during that time:
2004 5.5%
2001 7.9%
1998 6.3%
1996 7.8%
1993 5.5%
1990 7.2%
1987 8.0%
1984 6.3%
Grog @ 206
Yes, Keelty was savaged by Howard for daring to suggest (back in March of 2004) that the Madrid bombings might have been linked to Spain’s involvement in Iraq. He won’t miss his public humiliator following The Royal Drubbing.
Greetings Comrades,
I see from a perusal of this evening there has been even more than the usual level of violent agreement that typifies this site.
Just a thought:
Make 4 assumptions
Assume the national swing comes in at 6%
QLD is a shade under 6.5% swing
Vic is a shade under 5%
NSW is a shade under 5% and Howard/Turnbull hold on
and say Labor picks up the following as a result:
WA – 2 seats
Tas – 2 seats
NT – 1 seat
SA – 4 seats (assuming the Boothby factor comes true)
QLD – 3 seats (Herbert in doubt)
VIC – ( Deakin in doubt)
NSW – 3 seats (Lindsay, Parramatta and Eden Monaro) (dobell in doubt)
The election would be decided on 3 seats:
Dobell – Health union guy vs Ticehurst?
Herbert – McDonalds guy vs Peter Lindsay
Deakin – ETU guy vs Baressi
Just remember a 5% national swing is massive and as much as self reaffirming propaganda feels good KR may have been telling the truth when he said it was going to be a nailbiter.
It would be ironic if Maccas guy got Labor over the line!
How come we are having to wait so long for a proper post-interest rate poll at the national level???
The suspense is killing me!
Oh thats easy LaborVoter, HQ hasnt told the Australian what figures it wants for Newspoll yet!
Wow, ESJ, great idea. Let’s halve the swings of all the polls and claim victory!
Prat.
Barry, you caught me out being flippant.
Yes 10% is too high, but the 2001 7.9% must be closer to the mark than the current 2.(?)%. Wentworth was one of the few/only electorates that recorded a significant swing to Labor last time, and it had to be on the back of the King/Turnbull preselection and then independent fighting. This will swing back to Turnbull this election. My point is that as much as I might like it to be otherwise Wentworth wont fall.
And if you were near Double Bay you would uderstand my comment. It’s the most unbelievable den of established wealth/snese-of-entitlement I’ve ever experienced – makes Toorak look like Kingsford Smith.
The real margin in Wentworth is said to be between 5-7%
Labor advertising: I’ve also seen Rudd’s 5 minutes slots on the ABC, including tonight. And the ALP ads are appearing on commercial television after 7PM at night. The Libs seem to have bought all the slots during the 6PM news bulletins.
LaborVoter @ 221
I do not expect that this poll will be all that much different. The media made it very clear that the reserve bank would be putting up interest rates due to the ecomomic figures before the last Newspoll.
Numbers may not be your strong suit Stunkrat,
but even at 55-45 that is a national swing of 7.8% so you will find my swings are very realistic.
Ashley @ #210 says
Between elections, there are changes to the electoral roll in every electorate. People die; people reach voting age for the first time; people migrate to Australia and become citizens; and, people move between electorates.
No one knows the “real” margin in any of these electorates. We use the margin from the previous election because it makes more sense than any other measure.
Can we all just agree we’re not certain what the ‘real’ margin in Wentworth is?
There is a poll of it out which shows 50/50 TPP. Therefore Turnbull’s ‘real-time’ margin is 0% +/- MOE (4% on 800?)
Gerr and others.
I heard Kev saying recently that the Govt was releasing our funded ads beyond the caretaker convention niceties. Whatever was agreed to earlier, by the sound of.
As for the ads, I saw an ALP ad tonight. It started off with a pic of the ‘Australian families have never been better off’ and you can clearly see the ‘howardfacts.com’ in the ad. It goes on to a lady talking about the financial stress her family is in. So watch out of the advertising blitz real soon.
@ 224
Double Bay is the cosmetic surgery capital of the antipodes (where insecurity about aging is in inverse proportion to wealth).
A campaign built around subsidised botox therapy for the over 90’s would go down a treat I reckon.
“New Tricks” on the ABC rates its socks off on Saturday nights, and Rudd’s 5 minute thing aired straight afterwards: lots of people would have seen it tonight.
ESJ: The ‘Maccas guy’ has a name, it’s George Colbran, and since I grew up in Townsville I can tell you he has done more for Townsville than Peter Lindsay has ever done. Don’t under estimate Colbran.
ESJ @220
Take Antony’s caluclator, set it to state swings.
Put in QLD 6.4%, VIC 4.9%, NSW 4.9%, as per your specification.
And then adjust the sliders so that you *just* get
2 seats in WA – 2.0%
2 seats in TAS – 2.8%
1 seat in NT – 3.3%
4 seats in SA – 7.1%
National swing 4.9%
Result: 80 seats to Labor
Take away 3 seats (not that that is consistent). Result is 71 (+2 IND) to 77.
No I agree Will I think Colbran would be an excellent candidate for Labor.
HH – Yes I am sure all over the inner city of Mel and Syd and lower north shore of Sydney people preparing to watch the Bill had a very positive experience with the infommercial.
… direct proportion … oh f*ck it, I’m going to bed …
If you want a true reflection of how things stand, watch where the leaders are.
Howard: in Lindsay for a 2nd straight day, trying to hold on to a seat Labor thinks it has in the bag
Rudd: campaigning in Sturt, Christopher Pyne’s seat with a margin of 7%.
I think we can work out which of the two is having to defend territory.
Matt – not until we find out the sample size and methods of the poll. Plus the reported Greens primary was 14% (not sure but I think that was given above somewhere). THe preferences in this distrubution are likely to be all over the place and go to the Libs much more than usual.
@233 – Brilliant. Call GW immediately.
ESJ-there is a flaw in your logic. There has never been an occasion when a Government has got in with less than 49% popular vote. They just can’t make enough seats with 47% even, let alone 45%.
Mad cow ,
You’ve included Boothby, Bennellong and Wentworth which I specificaly excluded.
Note: Howard Hater
ABC TV ad, JWH. After.
New message, Keeping interest rates ‘as low as possible’.
I think Turnbull is worth keeping in Parliament, and I was most unimpressed by Newhouse on the 7.30 Report the other night. One got the impression he had been conscripted to be the candidate, and didn’t really want it. He was a total wuss on the pulp mill issue.
Obviously, Wentworth is necy-and-neck. But I doubt that Greens preferences will go as strongly to Labor in wentworth as in other seats. For example, the Geoffrey Cousins supporters may go independent/Green, but why would they give their preference to Labor? At least we have some hints that Turnbull, deep down, is not a big pulp mill fan. Newhouse would have no say on the issue should Labor win.
It is interesting, though, that while Wentworth has always been considered a “blue-ribbon” Liberal seat, it’s seldom had a really big margin over Labor, nothing like seats like Berowra or Mackellar.
Kevin is on Sky Election Channel
Link below:
http://www.news.com.au/live/popup
ESJ @241, if you adjust the swings in those seats to be below the swing, then to remain consistent with the given state and federal swings, you have to put those votes elsewhere. That is the swing goes *up* elsewhere.
Diogenes,
My real point is:
At 55% Labor wins, at 52% Labor may lose due to poor candidate selection. After all I imagine for many of you partisans it would be a very sad thing if Nicole Cornes, Belinda Neal or ETU guy in Victoria was the difference on the night?
NB @ 239
Sample size is 800 as per William’s post. Preference allocations could be out of kilter, or they could not be, maybe they actually asked people their second preference. I’m sure there was a reasonable number of people voting Green and preferencing Liberal at the last election too. Remember 40% of King voters preferenced Labor
I can’t believe so many of you admire Malcolm Turnball! What makes you think he is any different from the rest of Howard’s mob? Don’t forget Turnball endorsed Work Choices and a myriad of other heinous Howard policies!
ESJ — it is looking very much like Howard will lose Bennelong. I reckon Malcolm will probably hold on (just) in Wentworth. But 5 polls (and apparently a 6th on Monday) say that Howard will be defeated in Bennelong by at least 52-48.
ESJ, I think the Libs have their own candidate problems
Has Turnball ever spoken up against the treatment of asylum seekers?
Petro Georgiou and Judi Moylan were the only ones to stand up against Howard.
Back to Wentworth, what about the other parties, especially the climate change ones.. how do they figure into the preferences?
Do you honestly think HH anyone cares about asylum seekers? after all it was a big factor in 2001?
Kevin on sky news says workchoices is a dogs breakfast, link below
http://www.news.com.au/live/popup
There’s got to be some crap Liberal candidates to balance those out though where it will cut the other way! I’m gonna be really pissed if you are right though, esp if that rumour you posted last night was true!
ESJ: does Siev X mean anything to you? Howard was responsible for 400 people drowning in Australian waters.
Get real you Labor supporters. Turnbull is a bum on a seat in parliament. Add up the numbers and you see who wins the election.
Let the other side find another seat for Malcolm if Wentworth goes to the ALP. Are you so cocky about the election that you are being warm and generous about the Libs future well-being. For god’s sake, get a grip.
Well diogenes, its good we didnt name any names last night, if your thinking what I am thinking!
If Turnbull endorsed WorkChoices (248) I hope he bites the dust – and painfully.
Sigh… ESJ:
your =/= you’re
HH,
The morality or otherwise of a decision is not the issue.
The effect of the decision in political/voting terms is the only consideration.
No one cares about:
Refugees
Homeless
The “poor”
Those that do vote Labor already and many others dont.
Bryce, well said mate!
So if Rudd won 15 seats and just fell short in Wentworth, you people would be prepared to sacrifice a Labor victory so moneybags Turnball, your new poster boy, stays in parliament?
Where is the evidence Turnball would be a new compassionate, caring, sharing Liberal leader?
I should clarify HH, people do care but not in voting terms is what I meant to say! Otherwise why would JWH have won 4 elections?
Now the Telegraph want me to start a blog. Mater still says she wont speak to me again if I do. Should I risk my inheritence for my principles? What to do , what to do….
Definitely a problem with Antony’s calculator. If you set the swing to 0 (with the pulldown box at top), or, just go to the base url with no query:
- Paramatta is shown on Liberal side (correctly) but not shown as a gain
- Isaacs & Cowan shown as gains for Liberal
- Makin shown as gain for Labor
so it’s just an accident that the overall numbers come out right.
Iron Maiden (according to UrbanDictionary)
A torture/execution device from Medieval Germany, which consists of an iron coffin lined with spikes on the inside of the doors. The doors were closed SLOWLY so that the accused criminal would suffer maximum pain and anguish, sometimes for days, before finally dying of the resulting puncture wounds and suffocation.
Meh! All this rubbish of Libs winning on 48%. If a swing is on it is on and ALP can win with just a 2.7% national swing and 50% tpp.
Put these in Antony’s calculator;
NSW 1.7%
VIC 0.2%
QLD 6.3%
WA 2.0%
SA 7.2%
TAS 2.9%
NT 2.9%
Overall swing 2.7% ALP 50.0% TPP ALP 75 seats, LNP 73 seats.
So does anyone seriously believe the current 56/44 will fall to 50/50 over the next 13 days? It’s the bloody primaries that is killing the Libs and they aren’t moving.
Diogenes + Edward StJohn
What rumour?
ESJ: fair point!
Reason why Rudd has said zilch on immigration/refugees.
HH, I think you’re twisting the words of most people here. I’m sure they’d all be happy for him to be the 16th seat, they’d just rather someone else was instead.
We’re going a bit far if we can’t even point out the few good points of one Liberal without being accused of being weak.
Fulvio its not your politics your comments just arent that interesting old son!
New nomination for sexiest politician:
Melissa Parks
Labor candidate for Fremantle
Let It End @ 267
It will depend on where the big swing is. If it in QLD and SA then less is needed than if it VIC and NSW. Also if the swing is not as big as the polls say then good marginal seat polls can limit a lot of the losses to the Liberals.
Malcolm Turnball loves one thing and one thing only… Malcolm Turnball.
He couldn’t give a f**k about coalition policy or values. He entered politics for one reason… to become PM (not to better the country but better himself) and I wouldn’t be suprised if he attempted to join the Labor party previously so he can enter politics and reach his PM dream with them, but Labor told him to go get f**ked, cos he is a rich, pompous prick which would fit in well in the Liberal Party.
He is a Clear & Present Danger to Australian society and must be eliminated (as Malcolm X said) by any means necessary.
BTW – my prediction for the record… 148 seats to Labor & 2 Independents in Oppositon. Margin of Error – 2 seats
I quite like Bruce Billson, but I’d be happy for Labor to win his seat.
ESJ!
What do you expect to gain out of your denials?
The Siev X situation, the Government’s approach to it, is real.
Read something!
You need not expect any positives over your death dealing attitude, here.
So, shutup.
How utterly disgusting it is that these people were allowed to die, for the purposes of JWH.
Matt @ 248.
Good sample size and I know your right about King’s preferences, but I cant help feeling the moe is in Turnbulls favour in this one. Unfortunately I live on the wrong side of a street that puts me in Kingsford Smith (allthough I do get to vote for PG!!!!!). Oh to be on the other side of the street and be the vote…..
I think we’ll just have to wait for the night to see who is right on this one.
Pity those of us, like me, who live in ultra safe Liberal seats. Election after election, my vote for Labor is a complete waste of time.
I have to comfort myself with the thought that my senate vote counts at least.
(formerly: SJP) I too, thought that Turnbull would be a great rallying figure for small “l” Liberals. My wife, who despises the Liberals even more than I do, finds him the least offensive of the Cabinet ministers.
However, he as a cabinet minister supported Workchoices. He also crapped on about “how Australia leads the world in action on Climate Change”!!! How can a man of his intelligence espouse such b*llsh*t? He certainly sold out his integrity and decency and IMHO deserves to lose his seat.
In the coming political bloodbath on Nov.24th no Howard minister deserves to be re-elected! NO PRISIONERS!!
NO PRISIONERS!!
NO PRISIONERS!!
Death Dealing Denials?
What exactly are you accusing me of Crikey Whitey? I dont really understand your post?
For the record – I have not been a member of a right wing paramilitary death squad (if thats what your getting at?)
273 Stephen. You keep hoping mate but you just don’t have any good marginal polls. The example I gave was using only 50% tpp and we all know it will be a LOT more than that.
275
Completely right. Malcom Turnbull loves only himself
NB : I know what you mean, as I said before I don’t expect Turnbull to lose, barring a further Liberal collapse. In fact a poll showing he is danger is (unfortunately) exactly what he needs to get some of those ‘protest voters’ back on board.
Don’t feel sorry for Turnbull, he can go back to his $100m, and he didn’t even have the guts to stand up to Howard the Dictator.
ESJ- I am reliably informed that you are incorrect. Let the matter never raise its ugly head again. And to all you Turnbull haters who have just joined, please see my post at 177. Turnbull walked out of that studio with an arse like a Japanes flag!
HH @ 279
Imagine if you were ina safe Labor seat, but if you lived on the other side of the road wer in a marginal???? Oh the anguish.
Went past some Turnbull campaigners this morning. Was stuck for a civil way of telling them to f**k off out of my neighbourhood. Anyone got a good suggetion?
I really don’t know where some posters get the idea that the marginals won’t swing as much as the national average.
Polling actually shows they are swinging more than the average. Possibly due the the grassroots campaign being run by the unions.
Winston – you’re not talking about Wentworth?
Diogenes,
I am told they met at the footy? any truth to that?
ESJ, re asylum seekrs. the real issue is that perhaps howard has alienated a group of people from ever voting liberal, not just at this election. it maybe not important to this election, but it has redefined the liberal party for some.
“The chance to beat Downer by finding a strong independent has been missed.”
Adam, badly missed opportunity for an up and comer to get some profile as events have panned out. Brian Deegan didn’t have the goods in 2004, but when the Dems where still players back in 2001, John Suchuman gave Dolly a serious fright.
I suspect The Man from Mayo will miss the lime-light badly in the next parliament, especially when he twigs that from Opposition, the Costello/Downer “Dream Team” will be just that; the stuff of fantasy.
ESJ.
Exactly as I mentioned earlier, as seems to be true of most Liberal voters, absolutely heartless, everyone is expendable, except you.
Small minded, racist, religious, economic, social bigots.
Don’t care less, about any greater good.
Keep your greatcoat to cover your uniform, you may feel the need to hide.
Not because we would stone you, but your time is up, for the time being.
And read the posts, before you start asking for reiterations.
HH@278, I know exactly what you mean. Just enjoy yourself and write a nice essay on the ballot paper explaining how you feel about the sitting member. Having been a scrutineer previously I can assure you that it’ll be read and disseminated amongst the polling officials. Just make sure that you don’t obscure the boxes, that’d make it informal.
NB (288)
No – not specifically Wentworth – as some have commented it’s difficult to work out what the “real” margin is. I’m talking about average swing in marginals seats. Don’t have a good grip on what’s happening in Wentworth but I don’t think Turnbull should be feeling too confident.
Possibly Nath,
I would say the ALP has bought the same analysis that people care about “me” issues above all else and dont really think or car about “me, you and all of us” issues when it comes to voting.
Homelessness is one of the real tragedies. The Liberals ignore it and I think Labor promised a measly 10 year plan (which is meaningless). Surely in 2007 we could afford to give everyone a place to sleep?
It is one of the reasons I am v.cynical about politics.
Suspect there might be some more flak coming at Turnbull before the big day. I think G Cousins could be a soldier for those dark Clarkish forces in the LP who want to stop Malcolm ascending to the leadership by cutting him off at the knees in his seat. Reasons could include: his rationality (relative of course) which doesn’t sit well with religious zealots; his relative independence of mind (again relative!); his republicanism (even stronger than Costello’s); and his general wetness. If they knock him off in Wentworth they will stack better than they did in Cook to keep him at bay in the future if he looks for another seat. Maybe a preview of an almighty bloodbath in the Libs when they lose.
ESJ-I believe that is the case. And the whole family was there. There is definitely nothing to it. And to HH 272- I haven’t seen Melissa Parks but I have seen Kate Ellis and Mia Handshin who are both gorgeous. When things were looking bad a few weeks ago after the Rodent’s $34B bribe, I thought of writing to Rudd to suggest Kate and Mia have a nationally televised jello-wrestle.
A lot of what needs to be taken into account in Wentworth is the change of the shape of the electorate. It now juts out into Kings Cross, Paddington, Darlinghurst and (gasp) even my own neighborhood of Surry Hills. (If they rejigger the boundaries again after this election, I may be in Wentworth.) Say what you want about the botoxed bluebloods in Double Bay, there’s a whole lot of rather more left-wing voters in Wentworth now, and they’re what’s brought the margin down to 2.5%.
I reckon it extremely unlikely that Malcolm can win, given the swing that’s so obviously on.
so its 2 legs bad 4 legs good is it Crikey Whitey?
How sad, our politics is reduced to barracking for a football team ! And my team is never wrong!
People like you shoot people in revolutions! For the good of the people of course!
NB @ #224
The TPP swing to ALP in Wentworth in 2004 was 2.38%.
Another 5 Liberal held seats in Sydney had similar, or larger, swings to the ALP.
Warringah 2.18%
Bradfield 2.65%
North Sydney 3.19%
Bennelong 3.38%
Berowra 3.49%
None of these seats had Peter King as a candidate.
Double Bay is only one booth. It is the total from all booths that determine the outcome. Unfortunately for the Libs, each time electorate expands, the strong Lib booths make up a smaller proportion of the total.
BTW, I have no idea who will win Wentworth.
To all you slappers that vote for the Exclusive Brethren & The National Farmers Association…
In the immortal words of Peter Garrett and Midnight Oil … ‘your dreamworld is just about to end… your dreamworld is just about to fall” (Dreamworld from Diesel & Dust 1987).
2 weeks baby… 2 weeks to annihilation… 2 weeks until the whole nation is governed by the Labor Party… It will be the greatest moment in the history of the Labor movement.
Dazza 301 – spoken like a true financial planner!
Off topic but I thought some of you might find this interesting. (I’m sure you will just skip over it if you don’t).
Tony Wright in The Age today wrote a very unsympathetic summary of Mark Latham’s article in the Finacial Review. He says that Latham’s main theme is that globalisation has created massive, insatiable greed and materialism amongst the middle class. It has redistributed power in a way that gives the middle class the income and ability to buy private schooling, private healthcare and private recreational resources – which in turn has led to a treadmill of higher spending, higher indebtedness, longer working hours and greater relationship stress. All government is now required to do is provide extra money in the form of reduced taxes and increased middle class welfare.
Whoever wins this election, says Latham, Australia will still have conservative social policies – overfunded elite private schools, huge subsidies for private health insurance and bucket loads of hand outs for the middle class. No-one will be arguing for billions to be spent on such causes as alleviating poverty or on cheap public housing.
I am no great fan of Latham after the way he turned on his own party after the last election – and I do believe that Rudd is doing exactly what is needed to get rid of a devious turd like Howard – in a way that Latham could not have done. But I do think Latham has a point. Whatever else the Labor party now stands for it no longer seems to have any reference to what we used to call the light on the hill – and I think that’s a pity.
At the end, Wright surprisingly refers to Latham as an “angry old man” From my recollection he wouldn’t be any older than Rudd would he?
Turnbull is NOT a republican.
He played the role of monarchist gatekeeper very nicely, thank you.
He’s a Liberal Party minister now…get the picture.
Go back and study the republic debate carefully and you will see what I mean.
Diogenes @285 I read your post @ 177. Turnbull has shown his true colours on climate change. Also totally agree with 274, Dazzamack from Perth. Turnbull will never be a future Liberal PM.
Marko, I’m in Slurry Hills too and have to suffer the pain of voting for our Tanya. Not that I wouldn’t anyway, but if I was just one street over I could vote against Malcolm and feel as if I was doing something good in this world. I don’t have a problem with Mal himself – it’s the crowd he’s attached himself to that’s the problem.
Greatcoat, ESJ.
To hide your shame, ESJ.
People like me do not shoot the losers.
What’s the bet,late night Nov 24 and next day all the tories who come to these sites are Gone.
No crikey you probably just do the denunciations or sign the execution orders, some poor working stiff has to do the dirty work!
Darn @ 303
Latham nails it perfectly. But at the same time, how could anyone in their right mind rail against the desires of middle-class parents (or aspirationally middle-class parents, who are the core Rudd constituency in this election) to have good schools/healthcare for themselves and their kids? They can pay for it, so by golly, they’re going to pay for it — even if they work themselves to death and take all the joy out of their lives and their childrens’ lives in the process.
It’s a Faustian bargain; you gain the world but lose your own soul. Latham is right to rail against it, but he’s like King Canute. There’s no way to hold back that particular tide. The only way to ameliorate that trend is to make sure that the public schools and public healthcare are well-funded – from the public’s purse. And why would the middle-classes want to do that? Because if they don’t, their quality of life goes down as well. You can’t have a successful economy in the 21st century if people are under-educated and chronically ill. (Look at the United States, which has been hollowing out its own economy for nearly 40 years.) Investing in public services isn’t class warfare – it’s common sense.
But Latham, itching for a fight he already lost three years ago, just wants to irritate, rather than conciliate.
I think a lot of Labor supporters here are going rabid in the mouth.
Seriously get a grip guys, Turnbull isn’t going to lose his seat. The reason why it was so tight last time was cos of the disgruntled ex-Lib member.
Some of you need to get out of LALA land and back into reality. Add back some of that 18% Independent King took from Turnbull in the 2004 election where he recieved 42% and you suddenly get an idea how silly you are being.
A Turnbull 46%+ Primary Vote Vs Labor Candidate with 38% and requiring 100% of the Green preferences…. I’d be putting all my money on Turnbull.
PS. I live in Townsville(Herbert) and am 99% sure Colbran is going to win this seat. The last person they ran here was a nobody candidate, whereas Colbran is famous for owning all the Townsville McDonalds. His campaign also has been very good, in the news heaps, advertising, etc. Peter Lindsay has had a good run because the Labor candidates have been shockers here, and he may well be a nice bloke… but hardly anyone in Townsville gets to see much from him because he seems to hate TV cameras from what I can tell.
Deja vu @ 304 – Fair enough – but even if Malc isn’t a genuine republican I still think the Clarkists want to sacrifice him like one of their goats.
Edward StJohn,
If you don’t like Midnight Oils Dreamworld Lyrics, how about another Midnight Oil lyric ‘The Time Has Come’ (Bed Are Burning from Diesel & Dust 1987).
BTW- what has your Exclusive Brethren World Leader told you to do if the Coalition lose the election?… I heard the Exclusive Brethren has some mass suicide pact if that is to happen so you all get taken to heaven by angels instead of living in the apocalypse.
Mal @ 306
Well I do have a problem with Malcolm: he considers himself part of the entitled class. That, in itself, is enough to turn me off of him. (That and I know something about his shenanigans during the dot-com era. He made quite a bit of money, but didn’t make himself a lot of friends.)
Fortunately I have plenty of friends in Wentworth, and I’m only too happy to pass along the best bits of this blog along to them when I find something particularly juicy.
I, for one, plan on driving past Malcolm’s Bondi Junction office around midnight on the morning of the 25th of November, just so I can hear the gentle sound of entitled sobbing in the distance…
#306
Marktwain, you can make a bifferance,
Give the Greens a call and pack lunch and a hat, there is a polling booth waiting for you in Vacluse–Belview Hill.
Dazzamack, maybe we should be buying coolaid futures ahead of polling day?
Darn @303, I couldn’t agree more.
Latham was honest, and for that he got crucified.
We need more people who can stand up in public and tell people things they didn’t want to hear about themselves. Things like we’re creating a society where we don’t have any time for our children. Childcare policies be damned, why can’t we have a society where one income can pay for a modest home and support a family?
Rudd’s control freakery is dwarfed by Howard’s….nothing goes without his ok.
At least Rudd is still feeling his way….but if he swings too far to the right, I’ll vote against him next time.
Apparently the ACTU are launching their IR Ad campaign from tomorrow.
I hope the ACTU absolutely blitz the rodentcy.
ESJ at 309.
I wouldn’t usually bother with you, or your ilk.
You have gone too disgracefully far.
Correspondence ended.
Yawn.
What a bore this thread is.
Dweeby little Labor boys tugging themselves to sleep with perverse dreams that Turnbull is gone, Howard is gone, Alex Hawke is about to get slammed in Mitchell and Brendan Nelson’s Bradfield is about to become another socialist paradise.
Wake up – this election will be won on a seat by seat basis. And the Federal Liberal Party’s superior campaigning ability combined with its general decency will jag yet another win.
Can’t wait to drop by after November 24 and see the usual pronouncements of very boring Labor people heading for the airport and heading to New Zealand/Cuba.
nath Says:
Yep.
Please use a capital L for the party name while it is controlled by radial right wing nutters, there is nothing liberal about it in 2007.
Looks like the Iraqi information minister has been found…
Isabella, you remind me of republicans in the US before thier elections last year. So completely warped in the idea that your side is simply too entrenched, has such a great campaign team yadayadayada… Similiary, some pessimistic labor people remind me of quite a few Democrats, “They republicans always pull it off in the end, the country’s just to right wing, they have to much money…”. Labor will win comfortably on November 24th and anyone who doesn’t see that is really, really dumb.
Charles, a cogent reponse. Agree with your sentiments.
# 322
Generally, there is nothing wrong with having nothing worthwhile to say – unless you insist on saying it. Congratulations Isabella! You have just proved the theory that there is no limit to human stupidity.
mad cow at 317 Says:
‘Childcare policies be damned, why can’t we have a society where one income can pay for a modest home and support a family’?
Yes, mad cow. Let’s get Hugh Mackay on to explain it all.
If he has bothered to look.
Why is that once women got into the workforce, on an ongoing basis, for one, that it somehow became necessary to have two incomes to have a home?
Do not mistake me, I am a feminist, equal rights, everything.
But did the market detected the dual income?
ESJ @ 299 I’m afraid you’ve got it all wrong dear chap. This is the me too! election.
I think the more appropriate is: 4 legs good but two legs better.
And as for Johnny he’s like poor old Boxer: “I will work harder.” In the end he’ll still be dragged off to the knackery.
Marko
Class issues don’t really register with me, I’m afraid, although I do sincerely applaud your drive-by plans. Just remember to give him the old brown iris as you gently pass. How’s that class for you?
Envy, I’ll seriously consider voting for the greens in the upper house, but not in the lower. Clover Moore would never forgive me.
And Crikey Whitey, while I disagree with most of what EdStJ says, you did come across sounding as if you would like to line up all the dissenters after November 24 and summarily execute them. We all do get a bit carried away at times, do we not?
I am from Melbourne, so I don’t know much about Wenworth etc. But unless Labor needs that seat to win government I hope that Turnbull wins it.
If we have to have a Liberal Prime Minister in the future, I’d rather have him than other alternatives.
The Liberal Party’s “superior campaigning ability” has been very effectively concealed to this point. Their central campaign has been guided by their obsessive hatred of the unions, and has had no impact at al;, while their attemps to smear Rudd have all failed. Their local campaigns are notable mainly for their pathetic attempts to pretend that they have no connection with the Howard regime. We appear to have 150 independent candidates running against “hoons, graffiti and potholes,” things they will be able to do nothing about from Canberra.
As for Wentworth, we’ve just had a poll showing it on 50-50. So obviously it’s prefectly possible for Labor to win it, regardless of its “real” margin or whatever people here think of Turnbull or Newhouse.
Isabella @322 – if we are just a bunch of “Dweeby little Labor boys tugging themselves to sleep with perverse dreams” while you are walking the path of
Tory righteousness…what the hell are you doing here at midnight on Saturday?
Plenty of anagrams for The Liberal member for Wentworth here;
http://wordsmith.org/anagram/anagram.cgi?anagram=malcolm+turnbull&language=english&t=1000&d=&include=cunt&exclude=&n=&m=&source=adv&a=y&l=n&q=n
330 Marktwain Says:
‘And Crikey Whitey, while I disagree with most of what EdStJ says,
you did come across sounding as if you would like to line up all the dissenters after November 24 and summarily execute them.
We all do get a bit carried away at times, do we not’?
(A) Most of? State your exceptions.
(B) Summary executions? Bullshit!
(C) Yes, you have.
Marktwain,
maybe summary executions are a little extreme, but how about at least revoking a few visas….starting with the Member from Menzies?
Milne’s latest insight on Labor strategy.
http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,22737604-952,00.html
The Liberal party ads about ’soft on crime’ are quite annoying, they narrator almost speaks in a defensive tone. Who designs these things?
I would say more but Im giving no clues away.
What is this bizarre liberal dirt campaign all about?
It is the time to panic and write fake letters and press releases? Well Denis Shenanigans got caught out at the GG.
This from the AGE.
http://www.theage.com.au/news/opinion/jason-koutsoukis/2007/11/10/1194329566789.html
Playing dirty is another tactic the Liberals now seem to be flirting with. On Friday morning a fake letter from one Samuel L. Bronkowitz was distributed in the Canberra press gallery.
Addressed to one of Kevin Rudd’s media advisers, the letter was a purported rejection of a job application made by the adviser on the grounds that he had clearly failed in his job because Rudd was never informed of crucial issues. The letter was accompanied by a dossier of various instances where Rudd had been quoted in the media saying he was unaware of a particular report, or hadn’t been briefed, or hadn’t read a report.
HarryH, we probably won’t be able to legally boot him out without the complicity of Mick Keelty, but I would like to see him set adrift. Perhaps with a sole oar to accompany him?
Gotta love the Terror – John Howard has nits!
http://www.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/story/0,22049,22731353-5001021,00.html
Latest dirt on Gillard by the Poison Dwarf.
http://www.news.com.au/perthnow/story/0,21598,22736934-948,00.html
What The F*ck!!!!!! SMH – Tag-Team Assault By Howards
“One thing we know is that he doesn’t know anything about economics,” said Mrs Howard, in an interview at Kirribilli House on Friday, alongside her husband of 37 years.
Now the Rodent has got his fat arsed She-Rodent to campaign for him. Is he that f*cked that he has to pull IT away from IT’S weekly Bridge game and get IT to talk on his behalf…
Now I know it’s all over… All over to the point that i might go to bed a tug myself to sleep (Isabella @322), but maybe if I am nice, my girlfriend may assist
Norman Mailer dead.
Good night all. A little ditty to tug yourselves to sleep with:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a8EZYibqvIM&mode=related&search=
Glenn Milne should write for Mills and Boon. He’d be paid better.
http://www.abc.net.au/pm/content/2007/s2012521.htm
Malcolm Turnbull responding to accusations of ‘bullying’ from Howard confidant Geoffrey Cousins.
“If I succumb to this sort of bullying political pressure, bullying business pressure … let me tell you, I’ve been a businessman, I understand the business world, and I’ve seen plenty of business bullies in my time. And I am not a Minister for the Environment that will be bullied by anybody, let alone Mr Cousins.”
Now my point here is that this was around the time an unionist was accused of ‘union bullying”, a big deal in the media.
Yet here are 2 major Liberal business types ADMITTING that businessmen, and themselves according to each other, are “bullies”.
So we have the media playing one [the union fella] up and the others [Geoffrey and Malcolm] down.
What would be the impression of the ethics and competence of Turnbull if he was subjected to the same sort of media treatment that the union fella got?
Would he still be regarded as a suitable candidate for PM?
Check out the transcript.
#340
Post To Poisoned dwarf blog:
Shame your obvious investigative skills were not used to debunk the 2004 Interest Rate Con, AWB cover up and IR Con. Imagine the kudos you could have had. Instead you are debunking the great grocery swindle…
http://www.theage.com.au/news/federal-election-2007-news/janette-plays-second-fiddle-with-gusto/2007/11/10/1194329568955.html
http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,22737865-952,00.html
An interesting compare and contrast between the two aspiring ‘First Ladies’
mILNE SAYS:
As I have been saying all along: make it seem likely that Howard will be defeated in Bennelong (or if not that, rendered impotent after the election) and the proportion of the electorate that love Howard but aren’t too fussed about his party will turn towards Labor.
The guerilla campaign of “leaked” “private” polling in Bennelong will have the effect of making voters outside Bennelong who aren’t loyal to the Liberal Party think twice about elevating Costello the the Prime Ministership.
To make sure Costello is squashed they will vote Labor.
This may only be one or two per cent, but I’m sure everyone would agree, it’s a vital one or two per cent at this stage.
The Bennelong “Howard’s Gone” campaign will be seen as Labor’s most brilliant, if only brilliantly oblique campaign tactic.
Seats that come to mind: the Battler seats in Western Syndey, outer Melbourne, Queensland, some so-called “safe” (> 5% ,but <10% Lib seats).
This is a real winner for Labor, and (as Milne points out) Howard’s retirement is “official”. It’s not a scare tactic to say “A vote for Howard is a vote for Costello”… it’s the absolute truth.
Glad to see some vindication for my argument, if only from the Poison Dwarf.
340 Frank Calabrese
I feel a lovely movie in the making.
Julia, our beautiful own Hepburn. Blanchett, perhaps.
The Libs should be more careful of our gal.
What a pathetic little parrot Howard is:
“One thing we know is that he doesn’t know anything about economics,” said Mrs Howard.
“No, he knows nothing about economics,” agreed Mr Howard.
“I don’t think he stands for as much,” said Mrs Howard.
“I don’t think he stands for much,” her husband emphasised.
“People are nice,” says Mrs Howard.
“Yes, people are nice,” he says.
http://www.theage.com.au/news/federal-election-2007-news/janette-plays-second-fiddle-with-gusto/2007/11/10/1194329568955.html
Actually Nicole should play Julia in the Biopic – the “Bewitched” manneriusms would be a distinct advantage to the role
please don’t mention The Dwarf.
i still have nightmares of watching a rather younger, more ambitious Dwarf cuddling up to G Richo one night in a cosy dimly lit area of the Albury SS&A club.
eewwwwww
Julia on Howard’s Squirm lol
http://www.theage.com.au/news/federal-election-2007-news/howards-little-squirm/2007/11/10/1194329568958.html
No, Frank, don’t be foolish.
Appears the MSM are getting savage, a roasting of the hypocrisy of Costello
http://www.theage.com.au/news/federal-election-2007-news/debt-a-stake-in-heart-of-liberals/2007/11/10/1194329568961.html
Surely people should go to prison for this type of thing at election times, MP, Minister or not. It is just corruption of democracy.
The people should be informed on the front pages if this is the type of thing the Liberal Party are doing.
AND talking of front pages did The Australian print a retraction or appology for their false piece yesterday?
340 odd comments in approx. 7.5 hours? On a Saturday night??? Doesn’t anybody go out any more?
Well I was out and about at noon today. Bob Hawke “opened” Jule Owen’s campaign office for Parramatta which is located in the western end of the Division in Seven Hills.
Prior to the ceremony Bob and Jules did a walkabout in Centro Seven Hills where the effect on the Saturday morning shoppers was extraordinary. He’s still a pop star and there was a high recognition factor for Ms Owens too.
Abot 250 faithful plus a lone Green (me) crowded into the campaign office for the official launch. Ms owens gave a very competent warm up speech but Hawkies’ turn ably supported with prompts and encouragements from Ms d’Alpuget was a spectacle that has to seen to be properly appreciated. Serious and very funny by turns the Silver Bodgie (78 mind) had the audience totally captivated from about 3 milliseconds from the get go. I would have to say that although this was obviously a set piece his delivery and charisma has lost nothing over the years. If anything he has only got better.
As a speech to wind up party workers for the final push it was a tour de force and I have to say it had me thinking that I might give my first preference to the ALP in the lower house.
There is no doubt that if the ALP do snatch defeat from the jaws of victory this time around, Bob Hawke won’t be lying awake wondering if he could have made more of an effort.
Hypocrisy is pretending to be independent when the blood of partisanship drips from every stroke of your pen.
Hypocrisy is taking a step backwards and distancing yourself from your fellow combatants when the smell of defeat is in the air.
Hypocrisy is feigning conviviality with those whose opinions you dispise.
Thank God I’m not a politician or a journalist.
And yes, I do know the meaning of the words hypebole and turgidity, in case you should ask.
George Newouse is an idiot, but Wentworth is not what is was.
For all the psephs on line, I am curious how polsters would go about sampling in an area like Wentworth which has various pockets with vastly different types of voters whose voting pattern would not accord with what you would expect in the usual demographic categories In wentworth, it’s not just income, age or occupation which might influence how someone might vote – for example there is the jewish vote around vaucluse and the gay vote around potts point and darlinghurst.
356 Albert Ross
Thought that myself. Just glued.
Pollbludging is great!
And escaped a night with a person I preferred to avoid, today.
He would have would have been watching cricket or something.
Damien J 316
As a financial adviser, I can’t give financial advice without going through the proper processes first, but I would like to predict one stock that is about to surge…
Its called The Labor Party… and I also heard on the grapevine that the Liberal Party stocks are about to plummet… so you better selldown immediately if you were so unfortunate to have bought Liberal stocks in the past because the word from the Australian Stock Exchange is that they are trading insolvent and many of the directors are going to be subject to corruption charges.
Mrs Howard reckons Kev knows nothing about economics? She obviously was seperated from John Howard when he was Treasurer or was it really her running the Treasury.
She was obvioulsy absent when JH couldn’t remember the tax scales himself; didn’t see Downer get stuck and, obviously didn’t see our wonderful Treasurer truly emabarass himself in not knowing how tax scales were actually applied by the real people.
Didn’t Howard fail maths at high school or only just pass rudimentary maths?
It is actually quite distasteful to see a polly’s wife make an unprovoked personal attack on an Opposition member – this is not the USA. It will make people roll their eyes.
isabella you are not taking your tablets again by the sound of things. you know that when you forget your medicine, you do strange things like use ‘liberals’ and ‘deceny’ in the same sentence. You’re a very very bad girl!
For what it’s worth, Bob Hawke will be campaigning in Eden Monaro at Queanbeyan on Monday, with a debate (against who??) on Industrial Relations at Qbn Leagues Club at 12:00 and a dinner at Walshes Hotel in the evening.
Mike Kellys team are allocating locations for how to vote volunteers and scrutineers at the moment. I’m sure they would appreciate additional volunteers from good people!
It is actually in Malcolm Turnbull’s best interests for the Libs to lose this one. He just need to keep his seat. I would also like to play the role of conspiracy theorist and say that he leaked the cabinet discontent of Kyoto, and his chat to Cundle backed it up nicely.
If (heaven forbid) the liberals get voted out in 07, the next front runner for the liberal leadership will be Peter Costello?
Unfortunately for the treasurer, he may have the credential but has no personality and I wager would be seen as being more out of touch than Howard.
After being in the job and having an ordinary approval and being seen as not the man to lead the libs a la (Hewson/Downer), enter ..Malcolm Turnbull.
He’s safe as houses.
CBet has been remarkably steady for the last three days; $1.36/$3.15.
El Rodente’s downfall proceeds on course. Team Rodent failed to gain any electoral traction for yet another day. If anything, they are self destructing under bodgie leadership and dud spin. In the morning there will be only 13 sleeps to go. The zzzzzs’ll come easy tonight. See yez.
Milne just can’t help himself the sleazy little rat, see bottom of story.
Early editions of the Sunday Telegraph contained an allegation that Ms Gillard had incorporated funds used by Mr Wilson.
The Sunday Telegraph acknowledges that this allegation is entirely untrue. This error was made by The Sunday Telegraph.
Share this article
http://www.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/story/0,22049,22738133-5006010,00.html
No way will Turnbull lose Wentworth. To win Newhouse is relying on the full support of the Jewish community there, and a mate of mine has said he’s put that community offside. Put that together with King’s influence in the last election and the likely split in the green preferences (a lot of those will be coming from right wingers looking to give the LNP a kick) and there is no chance for a LAB win in the seat.
I wish it were otherwise (I’ll be at a party in the electorate that night), but another seat will be have to be picked up elsewhere for a LAB win.
Kina @ #359,
Is that the same Mrs Howard who doesn’t know where she grew up?
http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2004/08/10/1092102450926.html?from=storylhs
Tory Crimes, at least Isabella covered her mouth when she yawned.
Great stayer for her AWA. Must have terrific conditions. Or something.
Re: 267,
the HoR calculator is wrong. Isaacs is not a .1% liberal seat that can be taken with a slight swing. It is a ALP seat. A 5% swing is needed in vic for ALP to gain a single seat.
Perhaps Antony could fix the calculator…..
also needs to fix cowan and makin which are on the wrong side of the fence. Until that happens the HoR calculator does more harm than good.
Milne has shown what a scumbag he is.
I wonder which version of the story will make the dead tree version ?
“Latest dirt on Gillard by the Poison Dwarf”
Why is it there are only a few journalists willing to go into the grubby little world of attempted personal smear by association?
We have one journalist writing a piece to help the Howard govt based on a faked letter; another trying to smear with an ancient Heiner affair barely related to anything; another printing personal ’scandals’ that everyone has known about for ages but adds a lie fed to him from Downer’s office; one about Julia being a member of a group that had some members who had previously been members of the communist party or some such thing [a legal party as far as I am aware anyway]; some about Julia’s personal relationships for goodness sake.
It is always the same low lifes that stoop to this level. I know there are a number of low lifes in the real world for whom these articles appeal – but surely any self-respecting newspaper would release some of these journalist as past their sanity dates or use by dates.
The local community rag writes better stuff than some of this.
Well, Teh Crodent’s gone, Tip’s unelectable, and Malcolm represents the future of the Libs after Teh No Iceberg’s failed future sinecure. Wentworth would be mugs to toss him out.
Sunday Times online version also has the disclaimer as well.
Another own goal for Team Howard and it’s chief slime digger.
Darn,
I think some of the middle-class welfare will disappear with Howard, some of the excesses at least.
For example if you wanted to deal with the private-insurance rebate, you means-test to cut out the rebate at anything above medium income, and you do what Coalition did whenever they did something unpopular (privatising Telstra – provides funds for environmental projects), you say the savings provided for meantesting will be invested in reduced waiting lists/super clinics/specialists for the bush, or some other urgent expenditure the public has a burning desire for, making it an either-or option in which to gain acceptance.
I think a similar sort of thing can be done with private schools, remember private enrolments haven’t spike despite the funding distortions put in by Howard. You wouldn’t want to go too far with these, but if people see that you are re-allocating to needy schools, and its only an elite minority that are losing, there will be no public stampede. Its the sort of thing that is done after an election, maybe like that Freudian slip from that Garrett muttered in a Melbourne airport longue. And “white elephants” like the Australian Technical Colleges, they’ll just be merged into TAFEs, not many people will miss the new layer of bureaucracy that was built for electoral vanity posturing.
Family Tax Benefits, Baby Bonus, probably won’t be fiddled with much, except for the excesses focused on stay-at home mums with rather well-off husbands. These payments though would be much harder to change, as many of the libertarians in the Liberal party regret it is the bloated cost of just this sort of churning that makes it very difficult to find the funds for big-bang tax cuts that they dream about.
#366
It might be the retiring member button that is causing the calculator problem?
These tory fellow travellers in the MSM seem determined to show us what low types of unethical gutter trawlers they are.
Extraordinary. Dont they realise they’ll be on the losing side in about a fortnight. No thought of appropriate ass-cover?
Ay, Milne, ya creep: how does a council milk run for quest local sound, pissant?
Can be arranged.
The calculator is not wrong. See below (from the calculator website)
Kelly, it factors in retiring members personal following. For what you want uncheck the “Factor in retiring MPs” box above the swing.
I hear Milne drunk, attacked someone standing up on a stage. Maybe I should try standing up on a stage, but I wouldnt step away like the other guy did.
So the newspaper printed a deliberate? lie about Gillard then does the appology later but on-line? Or is this just an unlucky mistake – they forgot to proof read; Milne forgot he didn’t have anything to back up the claim? What is going on?
Labor voters I know do not buy any papers published by News Ltd.
Kina,
The Milne performance is on you tube.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PlzDHY9CRB8
Stephen Hill (378) What you say makes a lot of sense. There are ways and means as long as the commitment to change is there.
There’s no doubt Labor has had to tread a very narrow line in their quest to get rid of Howard. If it works – and it should – it will have been a brilliant strategy.
These journalists must have some guts though.
They must be forever looking over their shoulders, checking their letter boxes and peaking out of their windows. They are effectively through their attemts to elect Howard by abusing their positions, trying to corrupt democracy through misinforamtion, disinformation etc.. pissing off a great number of Labor supporters many of whom must live in the same city.
Imagine if they were successful? They would all need to immigrate.
I dare say that Ms G. will enjoy her new pool.
What is SCAREY, Barry at 370.
Quoting Alan Ramsey: 2004, as you refer:
“A reader sent me a copy of the Suich article, published just before Howard’s most recent visit to Britain in June. Apart from the lunch menu, which reflected the gentle, Saturday afternoon pace of the piece, and the headline (”Bush’s Other Buddy”), what intrigued most was the revelation of the embryonic Howard political dynasty.
Wrote Suich: “One comment made me sit up over the smoked salmon. ‘My kids don’t hate what I have done,’ [Howard] said. ‘They don’t hate politics. None of them has grown up hating what I did’ … Youngest son Richard recently joined the Bush/Cheney campaign office in Washington DC, where the President gave him half an hour in the Oval Office.”
CW says. It has long concerned me that we will see a new and entitled Howard, the younger, aspiring to PM ship. A distant future, yes, a frightening possibility, certainly.
Oh FFS, somebody must be able to do something with this picture!
http://www.theage.com.au/ffximage/2007/11/10/mbn_howard_wideweb__470×325,0.jpg
Ok, did that adjustment on the calculator, and can now confirm that a 0.2% swing in vic will achieve nothing, contrary what you are assuming at post 267.
CK (389) How about the following caption
You looked so innocent when you were young darling – for such a devious bastard
Hey! Why am I fading out of this picture?
Back to the Future style. something like that.
“Oh, and this was just before the divorce.”
Is that your special friend in Canberra dear ?, the one who makes me so NOT want to live in the Lodge ?
What does “incorporated funds” mean? Did The Telegraph accuse Gillard of something dishonest? If so, and it’s out there, in the ether or on hard copy, no amount of apologies, of the “regret” or genuine kind, will save the smarmy, vile, intoxicated little toad or the newspaper from a defamation suit which will end up costing both dearly.
This is going too far.
“…and after I took up with that lovely Mr Pratt.”
The Howards deserve Morgans 62/38 – 31 for each
and can now confirm that a 0.2% swing in vic will achieve nothing, contrary what you are assuming at post 267.
Well of course it won’t, you just cancelled out the need for it. Don’t need the 0.02% to recover Issacs if it isn’t notionally lost due to retiring member!
395 Frank Calabrese
Any clue, Frank. Library?
Loves being attached to power more than fidelity
.
.
They’re more or less accusing her of money laundering.
“Ahh, so that is your use by date”
Veils, Kina. 401. What could you mean?
Your kidding? He’s gay?
I was thinking of another affair.
I wonder if the Federal Police are watching any groups, some Liberal party members, the EB and Liberal support groups, journalists… the temptation to criminal behavior must be there when people get desperate and believe power may protect them later.
Yes, I’m referring to the alleged affair which Mungo Macullum is arew of
What’s the bet Howard anounces a maternity leave package on Monday. I reckon 2 months at 70% pay. Firstly skimming the baby bonus and then another 10billion.
If you don’t go back to work within a year you have to pay it back
Kina, please, please, please.
The history wars, Howard as author of Oz history, as we are to learn it.
Such grandiosity.
The librarian????
Okay!
Clue!
B of B?
Steady boys and girls. The sins of Howard are manyfold and obvious . We don’t need to get into the snide innuendo game which detracts from the provable truth about this loathsome fellow.
And whatever you think of his family, last time I looked none of them were candidates in this election
On a few different sites at the moment. I am only aware of the one rumour and half another but, best leave it there.
I hope this election follows the last two weeks of the 2004 election according to Nielsen. LNP lost a few points, Labor picked up a point.
Finally, some humour in the MSM
http://www.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/story/0,22049,22731023-5001031,00.html
The Labor candidate in Wentworth comes from one of Sydney’s most promoinent zionist families. Like the odious Michael Danby in Melbourne Ports he would be a constant spokesmen for the Israeli warmongers..better keep Malcolm I think!!
Brian, putting it as politely as my rage will allow me, rack off you rascist scumbag.
On another computer:
14 days to go.
If we have reached peak Howard as there is a hint of and Rudd’s remaining campaign is a good one then maybe he can maintain something close to the current lead. A 53/47 would be great; 54/46 would be brilliant, 55/45 unbelievable. A win by a few seat would be equally welcome.
Time to watch the MSM very carefully.
Nice to see the Extreme Right can take time out to join us this morning. I must admit, I had assumed that the pool of drool that collects in their laps as they idiotically bash on the keyboard would have shorted it out, so I surprised to see an online presence.
But there you go, enough monkeys and enough typewriters can apparently churn out a sentence, bile filled as it may be. Mind you, just as likely to be Extreme Left (I find it gets confusing where pro-Palestinians are concerned).
I had the displeasure of meeting a couple of proto-Nazis in a bar a few months ago. They got on the subject of race, all the white supremacist cr*p. I told one of them I was a black supremacist (I am paler than they were).
You could actually see the pause as they thought (I use the term loosely) it through. “But…but…you’re not black”, he said. Well spotted, I thought.
The young girl was very proud of the swastika tattoo on her thigh. I asked why she would want an Indian sun symbol tattooed if she was a White Supremacist.
Bit silly really, they’re not known for their tolerance of dissenting political opinion. But neither are they brave when they are not in packs. As Homer says “Alcohol, the cause of, and solution to, all of life’s problems.”
On the lighter side…
http://www.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/story/0,22049,22731023-5001031,00.html
Re 325,
Blackbird Says:
Ditto the situation in 1992 as well. The Republicans then denied the oncoming train wreck until after it happened. The morning after the 1992 election wasn’t pretty. Libs were photographed walking Washington in varying states of morning after drunkenness crying in the streets
Turnbull will win this seat, this poll will help make it so but as for the rest my advice is better not to look up because the trains a coming!
Its going to be very close obviously and the extra 17,000 votes coming in from some lower income earners in Kings X and Woolloomooloo will be pivotal. Especially when the Turnbull camp were so scathing of the proposed boundary changes to include the ‘riff-raff’ from these areas: “they aren’t true representatives of Wentworth, not Bondi (Beach) people” or something to that effect. Even the Daily Telegraph pinged them on that one. Hope the punters in these areas are being reminded of this true blue Liberal Party thinking, it could be the final nail in Malcom’s political coffin.